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Key Findings of the IPCC WG1 AR5

Fredolin Tangang IPCC WG1 Vice-Chair
© Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude

IPCC WG1 AR5 Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis
• The IPCC has released its WG1 AR5 Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis on 27 Sept 2013 in Stockholm S!eden • The S"mmar# $or Polic#makers %SP&' can (e do!nloaded $rom the IPCC !e(site http)**!!!+ipcc+ch and !!!+climatechan,e2013+or, • This lect"re hi,hli,hts ke# $indin,s o$ the report -SP& TS .nderl#in, chapters/
Cover Page: Folgefonna glacier on the high plateaus of Sørfjorden, Norway (6 °!"# N, 6°""# $%&

7"tline
• IPCC) 0istorical perspecti1es role 2 $"nctions • 3e# $indin,s (ased on o(ser1ations • 4etection and attri("tion • 5"t"re climate pro6ections • S"mmar#

Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
• IPCC plenar# comprises o$ all co"ntries in the !orld • IPCC 8"rea" comprises o$ 30 elected mem(ers !ith 1aria(le n"m(ers $or each o$ the W&7 re,ion9 IPCC elects its ("rea" mem(ers once in a :;7 #ears c#cle • 3 !orkin, ,ro"ps 2 a Task 5orce on <GGI • A"thors Contri("tors Re1ie!ers Re1ie! =ditors

Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) .

Why IPCC? • Prior to the establishment of IPCC. • • • • . 2. 3. The latest is the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Causes of climate change. which was released on Sept 27. 2013.<GA' >2 proposed the esta(lishment o$ IPCC and in 1?@@ IPCC !as esta(lished "nder W&7 and . Potential impacts on built and natural systems and socio-economic. fair and transparent assessment of the state of global climate system is required 5or this reason . Sweden. Possible response options.<=P The IPCC provides such assessment and this becomes the source of information particularly to policy makers and UNFCCC on 1. growing number of literatures indicate the Earth’s climate system is warming due to increasing GHG concentration in atmosphere Independent. IPCC had published 5 assessment reports and various other reports.nited <ations General Assem(l# %. in Stockholm. objective.

IPCC Reports FAR 1990 SAR 1995 TAR 2001 AR4 2007 AR5 2013 IPCC had produced 5 Assessment Reports plus several other special reports including the recently released SREX & SRREN. SRREN (2011) SREX (2012) .

Knowledge generation.How IPCC produces these reports? Independent research. publication of literatures by Scientific community IPCC Assessment Process IPCC Assessment Report IPCC doesn’t involve at this stage .

IPCC Assessment Process IPCC assessment is (ased on a1aila(le peer.re1ie!ed p"(lications .

Key SPM Messages 19 Headlines on less than 2 Pages Summary for Policymakers ~14.000 Words 14 Chapters Atlas of Regional Projections 54.677 Review Comments by 1089 Experts 2010: 259 Authors Selected 2009: WGI Outline Approved 10 .

The Relati1e Comprehensi1eness o$ IPCC WG1 AR5 .

3 . Fig 1.IPCC 2013.

the amounts of snow and ice have diminished. sea level has risen. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed. and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased . and since the 1950s. many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia.Key Statement / Headline of IPCC WG1 AR5 SPM Warming of the climate system is unequivocal.

Fig. 1983–2012 was likely the warmest 30year period of the last 1400 years (medium confidence) (IPCC 2013. . SPM.In the Northern Hemisphere.1a) Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850.

0oC per century . SPM. Fig.1b) Over SEA increase trend ~ 1.Warming in the climate system is unequivocal (IPCC 2013.

Evidence from Paleoclimate Archives IPCC 2013. Fig 5.7a) .

These regional warm periods did not occur as coherently across regions as the warming in the late 20th century (high confidence) . Fig 5.decadal periods during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (year 950 to 1250) that were in some regions as warm as in the late 20th century. multi.Evidence from Paleoclimate Archives & Climate Simulation (IPCC 2013. with high confidence.8a) Continental-scale surface temperature reconstructions show.

Temperature Ocean heat content Sea Level Snow Cover Glacier Arctic Sea-ice extent (IPCC 2013. Fig TS.1) .

Fig SPM.2) Wetter region gets more wetter and drier gets more drier since the second half of the 20th century .Extreme weather & climate events became more frequent (IPCC 2013.

(IPCC 2013. Fig TS.3) Glaciers and ice melting has accelerated in unprecedented speed in the last decade .

4a) The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2).000 years.40% increase since pre-industrial period Ocean observed 30% of these emitted CO2 (IPCC 2013. . Fig SPM. methane (CH4). and nitrous oxide (N2O) have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800.

4b) .Ocean became more acidic (IPCC 2013. Fig SPM.

Contribution by Category to CO2 Emission (IPCC 2013. Fig TS.4) .

faster since ~1970.• Except volcanic.18) . CO2 largest every decade since 1960s • Time-averaged natural forcing small (IPCC 2013. changes gradual • Anthro. Fig 8.

(IPCC 2013. Fig TS.6) .

20) . Fig 8.(IPCC 2013.

Earth has been in radiative imbalance. It is virtually certain that Earth has gained substantial energy from 1971–2010. with more energy from the sun entering than exiting the top of the atmosphere. since at least circa 1970. .

Detection and Attribution (IPCC 2013. Fig 1.13) .

Box TS.1) .• Periods of little or no warming can arise from internal variability • Internal variability causes to a substantial degree the difference between the observations and the simulations (medium confidence) (IPCC 2013.3 Fig.

Climate Models Responses to Various Forcings Natural + Anthropogenic Natural CO2 forcing only (IPCC 2013. Fig TS.9) .

(IPCC 2013.7) . Fig 10.

Human influence on the climate system is clear (IPCC 2013.6) . Fig SPM.

.

climate models requires Emission Scenarios. Models in AR5 use Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) .Future Climate Projections For future climate projections.

6) . Box TS.Indicative Anthropogenic Radiative Forcing (RF) for RCPs RCP= Representative Concentration Pathway (IPCC 2013.

(IPCC 2013. Fig 1.15) .

Projected Global Average Temperature Change by end of 21st Century The temperature increase during the last 100 years was only about 0.8oC. (IPCC 2013. Fig SPM.7a) .

Fig SPM.8a) .Projected Global Average Temperature Change by end of 21st Century 3-4oC projected increase over Southeast Asia region The temperature increase during the last 100 years is only about 0.8oC. (IPCC 2013.

Fig SPM.Projected Precipitation Change by end of 21stSome Centuryregions will become more wetter and others become more drier.8b) . Extreme precipitation events over wet tropical regions will very likely become more intense and more frequent (IPCC 2013.

Arctic will be nearly ice-free by st the end of the 21 century (IPCC 2013.8c) . Fig SPM.

Fig TS.20a) .(IPCC 2013.

Ocean will be more acidic by st the end of the 21 century (IPCC 2013.20b) . Fig TS.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) • There is high confidence that ENSO will remain the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific. ENSO-related precipitation variability on regional scales will likely intensify. . with global effects in the 21st century. • Due to the increase in moisture availability.

Fig. SPM.9) .Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century (IPCC 2013.

20b 0.IPCC 2013 Fig 13.6 m projected SLR around Southeast Asia region .4-0.

Fig.10) . SPM.Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC 2013.

RCP2.6 would be the Emission Scenario to follow if we were to cap warming at 2oC .

and since the 1950s. the amounts of snow and ice have diminished.SUMMARY • Warming of the climate system is unequivocal.6. • The atmosphere and ocean have warmed.5°C relative to 1850 to 1900 for all RCP scenarios except RCP2. sea level has risen. and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased • Human influence on the climate system is clear • Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system. many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. • Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely to exceed 1. • Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions .

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