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Summary of the Traffic Studies and Forecasts on the Project Highway Undertaken by the Consultant
8.1 8.2 Introduction. Traffic Surveys. 8.2.1 Classified Traffic Volume Count Survey. 8.2.2 8.2.3 8.2.4 8.2.5 8.3 Origin – Destination Survey (O – D). Speed and Delay Survey. Turning Movement Survey. Willingness to Pay Survey.
Capacity Guidelines. 8.3.1 Recommended Design Service Volume for Multi-Lane Roads by the IRC. 8.3.2 8.3.3 Highway Capacity Manual. The ADB Guidelines.
Assessment of Growth Rates. 8.4.1 Growth Rate based on Past Traffic Data. 8.4.2 Growth Rate based on Vehicle Registration. 8.4.3 Transport Demand Elasticity Approach.
8.4.4 Comparison of Growth Rates by various Methods. 8.4.5 8.5 8.6 8.7 Suggested Growth Rates.
Traffic Forecast. Projected Tollable Traffic. Traffic Signals and Interchanges.
Summary of the Traffic Studies and Forecasts on the Project Highway Undertaken by the Consultant
8.1 Introduction The National Highway-3 connects Mumbai and Agra through Nashik. It carries sizable amount of inter-state traffic. The section between Vadape and Gonde is a part of the important section of NH-3. This chapter presents traffic study and its data analysis and forecasts carried out by the Consultant. The results of analysis will form input for designing the pavement, road cross section, planning and design of toll plaza and wayside amenities and for economic and financial analysis.
8.2 Traffic Surveys Traffic surveys were carried out to establish the traffic flow characteristics, travel pattern, delays on the corridor and user’s willingness to pay toll. The following surveys were conducted at different locations of NH-3 in the section between Vadape and Gonde. Following were the main types of traffic surveys carried out by the Consultant. 1) Classified Traffic Volume Counts. 2) Origin – Destination Surveys (O-D). 3) Speed and Delay Survey. 4) Turning Movement Survey. 5) Willingness to Pay Survey.
Traffic Survey Locations and Schedule.1. The traffic volume count data was processed using the commonly used spread sheet package. Igatpuri to Shahpur (458 to 512 km). one each on the 3 homogeneous sections of the project corridor.1. The time schedule for the surveys (Table 8. eight hour shifts on each day by trained enumerators. 156 .1 Classified Traffic Volume Count Survey The 7 day (24 hour. 8. both directions) classified traffic volume count survey was carried out at three locations as mentioned in Table 8. The traffic survey locations along with survey schedule are presented in Table 8.Based on reconnaissance survey and past studies. The count data were recorded at 15-minute intervals using hand tallies and total vehicles per hour for each vehicle category were computed. Traffic Survey Locations and Schedule. the project corridor has been divided into the following three homogeneous traffic sections: Section I : Section II : Section III: Gonde to Igatpuri (440 km to 458 km).2. Shahpur to Vadape (512 km to 539/500 km).1. Traffic counting was carried out manually in three. Traffic Survey Locations and Schedule) was prepared as per the requirements of the study and in conformity with the TOR. The volume count and OD surveys were conducted at these three locations. The processed hourly traffic volume data has been compiled direction-wise. Traffic Survey locations for carrying out traffic surveys were selected after site reconnaissance and were presented in Inception Report.
800 458.000 Date of Survey 64-04-02 To 22-04-02 19-04-02 18-04-02 17-04-02 21-04-02 & 22-04-02 452.950 535.at this junction was not anticipated at Inception Resort stage.830 512. Khamble (Near Hotel Darna) Khardi (Near Khardi ST Bus 24 Hours Stand) Padgha (Near Moonlite Resorts) 24 Hours Khamble (Near Hotel Darna) Khardi (Near New Sai Krupa Hotel) Padgha (Near Moonlite Resorts) 2 Days Entire Project Corridor Turning Movement Survey. straight movement count on the crossing road i.e.000 483.450 514.000 483.500 452.00 22-04-02 22-02-02 22-04-02 22-04-02 20-04-02 20-04-02 20-04-02 19-04-02 18-04-02 17-04-02 Speed and Delay Survey. peak hour share.635 493. Origin Destination Survey.00 452. However. *Turning movement count survey .800 533.000 533. Asangaon – Shahpur was carried out to have a better understanding of the Asangaon – Shahpur traffic. The various vehicle types having different sizes and characteristics were converted into equivalent passenger car units. Data collected from site was analyzed to study daily variation and hourly variation of traffic.000 539. Duration Location Chainage (Km) 452.Table 8. 12 Hours Vaitarna Junction (SH-12) 12 Hours Igatpuri Junction 12 Hours Khardi Railway Station – Vada Junction (SH-36) 12 Hours Shahpur – Murbad Junction (SH-37) 12 Hours Asangaon Junction * 8 Hours Bapgaon Junction (SH-40) 8 Hours Bhiwandi Bypass Junction Khamble Khardi Padgha Source: DPR for 4/6-laning of Gonde Vadape Section of NH-3.000 493.1: Traffic Survey Locations and Schedule Type of Survey Classified Traffic Volume Count. traffic composition and Average Daily Traffic (ADT) at all the survey locations.000 533. The Passenger Car Unit (PCU) factors recommended by Indian Road Congress in “Guidelines for 157 . Willingness to Pay Survey. Volume IV.
158 .00 4.00 1.00 2. by vehicle type is presented in Table 8. at all the three locations.2. Table 8. Average Daily Traffic (ADT): Daily traffic volume by vehicle type and direction were added separately and averaged to determine the Average Daily Traffic.2: Values of Passenger Car Unit Factors for Different Vehicle Categories Vehicle Type Two Wheeler Auto Rickshaw Car/Jeep Van//Tempo (Passenger) Mini Bus Standard Bus LCV 2xAxle Rigid Truck 3xAxle Rigid Truck MAV Tractor Tractor Trailer Animal / Hand Drawn Vehicles Cycle PCU Factor 0.50 3.50 3.Capacity of Roads in Rural Areas” (IRC: 64-1990) were used.00 1. (Table 8.50 Source: Guidelines for capacity of Roads in Rural Areas (IRC 64-1990). Average Daily Traffic (ADT) on the Project Corridor.50 4.3.00 3. Values of Passenger Car Unit Factors for different vehicle Categories). Average Daily Traffic (ADT).00 4.00 3.75 1.00 0.50 0.
364 VPD (vehicles per day).187 1.385 3.333 331 99 613 1.834 23.355 3. Comparison of ADT at Padgha and Khardi: There are two major junctions located in between Padgha and Khardi count locations viz.940 629 340 11 18 24 84 12.340 4. Volume IV.279 382 105 570 1.862 646 354 22 41 59 166 13.858 594 325 4 10 5 43 10.101 647 342 6 2 6 43 12.Table 8. Average Daily Traffic (ADT) on the Project Corridor).741 25.743 PCU. Shahpur Junction and 159 .364 25.285 632 3. From the base year (2002) traffic figures at the three survey locations (Table 8. it varied in the range of 23.3: Average Daily Traffic (ADT) on the Project Corridor Vehicle Type Khambale (Section I) Two Wheeler Auto Rickshaw Car/Jeep Van//Tempo (Passenger) Mini Bus Standard Bus LCV 2xAxle Rigid Truck 3xAxle Rigid Truck MAV Tractor Tractor Trailer Animal / Hand Drawn Cycles Total Vehicles Total PCUs 1.743 Khardi (Section II) 597 121 3. The main reasons for the low traffic at Khardi are given below: 1.513 443 3.834 – 13.248 Padgha (Section III) 1. it can be observed that the ADT at Khardi location is less compared to Padgha and Khambale count locations.248 – 25. The Average Daily Traffic (ADT) observed along the project and section varied in the range of 10.313 24.3.360 3.106 104 74 638 1. In terms of PCU.132 399 3.614 508 119 631 1.726 Average Source: DPR for 4/6-laning of Gonde Vadape Section of NH-3.
) (Veh.72% % Variation of min. 2. From the turning movement count survey at Igatpuri Junction.5. Location-wise variation of traffic with respected to average is presented in Table 8.Khardi Railway Station Junction.109 5. Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT): To account for the seasonal variation in the traffic.) 14. thus reducing the through traffic towards Khardi. seasonal variation factors have been worked out using past traffic data on the project corridor.44% 11. it was observed that significant amount of traffic is leaving the project corridor (From Nashik approach towards Igatpuri) thus reducing the through traffic towards Khardi. Comparison of ADT at Khardi and Khambale: There are two major 3-armed junctions between Khardi and Khambale count locations viz. traffic w. From the intersection turning movement count survey at Shahpur Junction. Location wise Variation of Traffic.t.315 9. Daily Variation of Traffic: Daily traffic variation in terms of vehicles as well as in PCU at each of the survey locations are plotted shown in Table 8.169 13.859 12. Seasonal variation factors are estimated for each category of vehicles by taking the ratio of December count and average of May and December count.77% 5.656 13.r.) (Veh. it was observed that significant amount of traffic is leaving the project corridor (From Mumbai approach towards Shahpur and Murbad). traffic w. average (Veh.08% 11.r.09% Khambale Khardi Padgha 160 .t.389 12.891 11. Table 8.148 13.4: Daily Variation of Traffic Location Max Min average % Variation of Traffic Traffic Traffic max.696 11. Daily Variation of Traffic. Vaitarna Junction and Igatpuri Junction.4.06% 8. average 10.
whereas at km 493. average 4% -6% 2% Source: DPR for 4/6-laning of Gonde Vadape Section of NH-3.5: Location-wise Variation of Traffic Location Khambale Khardi Padgha Average Traffic in PCUs 25743 23248 25187 24726 % variation w. This indicates that the directional distribution on the entire project corridor is nearly uniform and a value of 50/50 (Mumbai / Nashik) is adopted for all the sections for capacity analysis. ¾ Proportion of Volvo Trucks in total MAV is about 4% .Table 8. The Table 8.6. Traffic Composition: The composition of 4-wheeled motorized vehicles in the traffic stream at all the survey locations complied in Table 8. 161 .r.00 (Khambale) and km 533. Composition of 4-Wheeled Motorized Traffic. Composition of 4-Wheeled Motorized Traffic. while 2-axle/3axle rigid trucks and Multi Axle Vehicles (MAV) account for 43% and 3% respectively.80 (Khardi) it is estimated at 50/50 (Mumbai / Nashik).t. Directional Distribution: Directional distribution of traffic forms an important input for capacity analysis. brings out the following: ¾ Passenger vehicle category: Car/Van/Tempo constitutes over 34% while buses account for only 7%.00 (Padgha) directional split works out to 51/49 (Mumbai / Nashik).15%. At km 452. Volume IV.6. ¾ Freight vehicle category: Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs) constitute about 13%.
The results of this survey form a useful input for estimating the growth rates for traffic projections. ¾ Trip length.e. 8. Khardi (km 483.2.00) on 18-04-2002 and at Padgha (km 533. The vehicles were stopped on random sample basis with the help of police and the drivers were interviewed by trained enumerators to collect the needed information / data. identification of toll plaza location and planning for toll collection system.Table 8.00) on 17-04-2002 simultaneously along with classified volume count. The O-D survey was carried out for one day at three locations i. Roadside Interview Method was adopted for conducting the survey. 162 .2 Origin –Destination Survey The origin-destination survey was carried out with the primary objective of studying the travel pattern of passenger and goods traffic along the study corridor. Khambale (km 45200) on 19-04-2002. Volume IV. The pertinent information in respect of travel characteristics including the following were collected during these interviews: ¾ Origin and destination of the trip.6: Composition of 4-Wheeled Motorized Traffic Mode Car / Jeep Van / Tempo (Pass) Mini Bus Standard Bus LCV 2-Axle Truck 3-Axle Truck MAV Total Composition 31% 3% 1% 6% 13% 37% 6% 3% 100% Source: DPR for 4/6-laning of Gonde Vadape Section of NH-3.
163 . Table 8. The O-D survey was limited to only car and bus in passenger vehicles category and trucks (LCV. The sample size of the survey as percentage to the total traffic on the day of OD Survey is presented in Table 8.00) is away from influence of local traffic. Sample Size of OD Survey.7. OD pattern is influenced by Igatpuri and Ghoti Towns and at Padgha traffic pattern is influenced by Padgha / Vashind. ¾ Trip time. ¾ Number of passengers. Volume IV. It can be observed that through traffic is very high at Khardi OD survey location (986% passenger and 88% freight) as compared to Khamable and Padgha OD survey locations. 2 axle / 3 axle rigid. High volume of through traffic indicates the importance of the Project Road section as an important corridor serving the inter-state traffic. while at Khambale location. ¾ Commodity type and load.¾ Trip purpose. MAV) in freight vehicle category.7: Sample Size of OD Survey Vehicle Type Car Bus Overall Passenger LCV 2 Axle / 3 Axle MAV Overall Freight Padgha 21% 19% 21% 17% 13% 26% 15% Location Khardi 30% 42% 32% 17% 15% 34% 17% Khambale 20% 42% 23% 16% 14% 28% 15% Source: DPR for 4/6-laning of Gonde Vadape Section of NH-3. This is due to the fact that Khardi OD survey location (km 483.
Therefore. The survey was conducted to know the journey speed of traffic stream. Cement. Chemicals.97% of passenger trips and 79% . Textile Products. 164 . 8. Forest Products. Sugar. Commodity Analysis: The commodity analysis shows that share of empty trucks is about 29% . Poultry. business and commercial activities.84% of freight trips are destined / originated within Maharashtra only. Maharashtra can broadly be considered as the area contributing majority of traffic to the Project Road for all projection purposes. Miscellaneous Products are the important commodities transported on the Project Road. Cash Crops. Iron and Steel. business and tourism / religious trips are high (constitute about 75% of passenger trips). High percentage of social / tourism trips can be attributed to number of tourist / pilgrimage places in the project influence area.34% out of the total freight traffic. Coal/Other Minerals. Trip Purpose: It was observed that the percentage share of work.4. Other important place from which significant traffic generation was observed is Shirdi. Milk.3 Speed and Delay Survey The speed and delay survey was conducted using the “Moving Car Observer Method”. Fertilizers. State-wise analysis of traffic pattern shows that about 96% . Machinery. Occupancy and Trip Length: The analysis of O-D data for passenger vehicles (car) shows that the average occupancy of the Car is 3. Food Grains. Live Stock. being the major centre for industrial concentration. generates sizable passenger traffic and freight traffic on the Project Road followed by Nashik. Other Manufacturing Products. Building Materials. The average trip length is observed to be about 240 km.Mumbai.2. Fruits and Vegetables. Paper. Petroleum Products.
e.4 Turning Movement Survey The turning movement survey was conducted to obtain information on direction wise and mode wise turning movement of traffic at 7 important intersections namely Vaitarna Junction. 8. number of vehicles in opposite direction. interchanges and for design of intersections etc. Total two runs were made on the project corridor. Bapgaon Junction and Bhiwandi Junction on the project corridor. 29 kmph). Khardi Junction. Shahapur Junction. The peak hour directional movement data would be used to plan the improvement scheme such as. The average speed on the project corridor was 35 to 36 kmph. It was observed that the average speed at Igatpuri junction and Kasara Junction (Ghat Section) is lowest (i. The average speed on Vaitarna junction and Igatpuri junction is also less due to the influence of heavy local traffic of Igatpuri and Ghoti. 165 . vehicles overtaking the test car and any delays occurring enroute were recorded during the survey. Igatpuri Junction. at-grade intersections with or without provision of traffic signals. Minimum percentage of right turning traffic has been observed at Bapgaon Junction. the study corridor has been divided into 6 sections. High percentage of total turning traffic has been observed at Shahpur and Bhiwandi Bypass Junctions. The survey was conducted for 12/16 hours covering both morning and evening peak hours. Information on journey time. From the analysis of turning movement survey data the following inferences are made: General Inferences: High percentage of right turning traffic has been observed at Bhiwandi Bypass. Asangaon and Shahpur Junctions. number of vehicles overtaken by the test car.2. Asangaon Junction.For this purpose.
being a widening 166 . Information was also collected on their trip characteristics. there is a need for assessing the users' willingness to pay so that the investment decision is justified and returns are realistic. As the main objective of 4/6 laning of Vadape-Gonde section of NH-3 is to formulate a project suitable for execution as a toll project.Minimum percentage of total turning traffic has been observed at Bapgaon Junction. The collected data was useful for identifying the willingness to pay and fixation of optimum toll rates for various road users. 8. Specific Inferences: At Asangaon junction most of the cross traffic is auto rickshaws. if the facility is either a new road entirely or a bypass. In this survey the users were asked directly to state their willingness to pay for the improved facility. The present project. Local people commute from Shahpur town to Mumbai by catching a local train from Asangaon Railway Station. ¾ Generally.5 Willingness to Pay Survey The objective of this survey was to know the users opinion on imposition of toll and their acceptability to pay toll to travel on the improved facility.2. Consultants have conducted 500 interviews of truck users and 450 interviews of car users. It is understood that around 500 autos are operating in Shahpur town in which most of the autos run between Shahpur Town and Asangaon Railway Station. This survey was conducted at the roadside amenity centers like Dhabas. In general road users are not willing to pay the toll as expected for such facility. The reasons could be as follows: ¾ Poor assessment on perceiving the benefits especially the savings in vehicle operating costs and accident reduction benefits. Restaurants and Fuel Stations along the project corridor. Respondents were also asked to state their level of acceptance for various toll rates. road users express willingness to pay high toll.
Moreover. as there are no sufficient IRC guidelines on the same.000 PCUs. and a minimum 3. and provides. Consultants have calculated the Design Service Volume for various Levels of Service. Provision of hard shoulders on dual carriageways can further increase the capacity.5 m width are provided.3. the basis for determining the carriageway width to be provided with respect to the volume and composition of traffic.000 PCUs for four-lane divided carriageways located in plain terrain (In absence of sufficient information about the capacity of multi-lane roads under mixed traffic conditions). 8.1 Recommended Design Service Volume for Multi-Lane Roads by the IRC The IRC has recommended tentatively. The applicable capacity for the project corridor with widening and improvement is 80. Further the Asian Development Bank (ADB) also provided some guidelines on capacity of multi-lane highways.000 PCUs/day.0 m wide central verge. design and operation of roads. the daily capacity of four-lane dual roads can be taken up to 80. 167 .work. the road users might have expressed low toll rates. Consultants have rationally worked out the capacity of 4/6 lane divided carriageways based on the guidelines / methods given by Indian Roads Congress (IRC) and Highway Capacity Manual (HCM). In case well designed paved shoulders of 1. Indian Roads Congress (IRC) has recommended capacity values for various lane configurations in IRC: 64-1990: Guidelines for Capacity of Roads in Rural Areas. 8. among other things. This capacity will be applicable if the carriageway has reasonable good earthen shoulders on the either side. at present the existing road provides moderate level of service and there are no major bottlenecks such as narrow bridges etc. a daily capacity of 70.3 Capacity Guidelines Capacity analysis is a fundamental aspect of planning. Capacity of multilane (more than 2-lane) rural roads is more crucial in the design of carriageway. except at Kasara Ghat section where the speeds are very low.
Consultants are of the opinion that. capacity values obtained from HCM procedure are more appropriate for finalizing the carriageway for the project corridor.000 PCUs/day : 35. following inferences were drawn: The capacity of 4-lane divided carriageway calculated based on the IRC guidelines i.3 The ADB Guidelines The Asian Development Bank (AD) B has recommended the following capacity standards (ADB III Road Project Guidelines) for different lane configurations.10. considering the amount of research and practical background behind the HCM procedures. ADB and HCM give a higher value of capacity compared to IRC.8. 80.3.000 PCUs/day From the analysis of capacity guidelines provided by IRC.00. HCM and ADB.2 Highway Capacity Manual Maximum Service Flow Rates at different Levels-of-Service calculated based on Maximum Capacity Manual (HCM) guidelines for multi-lane highways (considering the directional split and peak hour traffic). Hence the HCM guidelines have been adopted for the present study.000 PCUs/day : 30.000 PCUs/day Four Lane Divided Carriageway with Paved Shoulders: 1.000 PCUs/Day is on lower side and more over this was recommended in absence of sufficient research on capacity of multi-lane highway for mixed traffic conditions. 8.000 PCUs/day Four Lane Divided Carriageway with Earthen Shoulders: 1.3. Single Lane with earthen Shoulders Two Lane Carriageway with earthen Shoulders Two Lane Carriageway with Paved Shoulders : 6. 168 .e.
169 . The growth rates were worked out for various categories of vehicles and conclusions were drawn. unless the area of influence is well defined and the general development pattern of influence area remains same. Past trends in traffic growth on the Project Road. Transport demand elasticity approach. 8.8. 8.4.4 Assessment of Growth Rates Long term forecasting of traffic on the Project Road during the time horizon of the study is required for design of highway and assessing the economic and financial viability of the proposed investment. Non-Uniformity in past traffic data of PWD may be attributed to errors during collection and processing of data and policy measures of the Government and other influences etc. one should not be guided by past traffic data for deriving growth rates. As the past traffic data on the Project Road is not showing any definite trend.4. These data are available for May and December months of last 10 years. following approaches have been explored. Growth of registered motor vehicles. To illustrate this point during recent past tourist bus operation is banned because of dispute with the State Government over increase in taxes. Such an assumption may not be correct.1 Growth Rate based on Past Traffic Data Past traffic data as collected from PWD is available for two locations (Igatpuri and Padgha) along the project corridor.2 Growth Rate based on Vehicle Registration An alternative approach is to explore the registered motor vehicles growth in the influence area and assume a growth rate equal to the average growth of vehicle registration. It is further noted from the OD survey that operation of trucks carrying petroleum products has come down on the Project Road as pipe lines are laid to carry the same. To establish the future traffic growth rates.
19% 6. growth of cars is about 8%-14% and that of trucks is 5%-11%.69% 9.35% Tractor 6.22% 6.35% 15.64% 3.27% 9.90% -16.13% 3.08% 10.42% -12.50% 3.85% 5.72% 10.74% 19.37% 6. this would be an alternative approach in the absence of any additional information or useable past traffic data on the Project Road.98% 10.65% 12.45% 47.06% Bus 1.34% 5.57% 10.81% 10.27% 8.23% 8.60% 3. Table 8. during the last 6 years.53% 10.However.21% 8.31% 9.91% 7.8: Growth of Registered Motor Vehicles in Maharashtra Period 1987-1988 1988-1989 1989-1990 1990-1991 1991-1992 1992-1993 1993-1994 1994-1995 1995-1996 1996-1997 1997-1998 1998-1999 1999-2000 Two Wheeler 15.62% 5.71% Cars 6.49% 11.55% 5.66% 170 .80% 2.95% 6.02% 18. there is a strong influence of number of registered vehicles in Maharashtra on traffic on the Project Road.41% 6.13% 10.83% 9.80% 10.64% 4.50% 7.77% 6.32% Three Wheeler 8.03% Truck 3.26% 9. It may be emphasized here that 96-97% of passenger traffic and 79%-84% of freight traffic is destined / originating within Maharashtra.05% 11.58% 2.71% 13. It can be observed from the above Table.49% 14.99% 9.94% 23.55% 13. average growth of two wheelers is around 10%.61% 13.97% 10.32% -0. Therefore other rational approaches to be explored in order to derive realistic growth rates.645 12. The growth rates for various modes are estimated and presented in Table 8.62% 10.14% 6.56% 10. The high growth rate of more than 10% may not sustain in future.81% 11. Growth of Registered Motor Vehicles in Maharashtra.27% 9.27% -1.36% 15.91% 9.34% 10.98% 9.39% 11.39% 10.94% 14.07% 10.66% 4. Therefore.02% 6.59% 9.8.02% 7.10% 5.
While it is 10%-12% in Nashik.10: Growth of Registered Motor Vehicles in Nashik District Duration 1995-1996 1996-1997 1997-1998 1998-1999 Two Wheeler 11% 10% 11% 12% Three Wheeler 13% 20% 23% 13% Car Bus Truck Tractor Trailer 10% 20% 15% 12% 5% 4% 3% 2% 7% 8% 5% 6% 22% 13% 11% 12% 12% 14% 18% 1% It can be observed from the above tables that the growth of registered motor vehicles in Thane District is higher than that of Nashik District.10. these districts predominantly influence the Project Road. Growth of Registered Motor Vehicles in Thane District and Table 8. The past growth in the number of registered vehicles is presented in Table 8. Table 8. Similarly growth of cars is about 17%-36% in Thane where as in Nashik it is about 10%-20%. Growth of Registered Motor Vehicles in Nashik District. for Thane and Nashik districts respectively.9: Growth of Registered Motor Vehicles in Thane District Duration 1995-1996 1996-1997 1997-1998 1998-1999 Two Wheeler 17% 19% 19% 11% Three Wheeler 22% 21% 17% 13% Car Bus Truck Tractor Trailer 16% 12% -11% 7% 5% 7% 8% 3% 13% 31% 15% 10% 35% 10% 36% 27% 17% 7% 9% 6% Table 8. The growth of two wheelers is about 11%-19% in Thane.Since the Project Road falls in Thane and Nashik Districts.9. Analysis of number of registered motor vehicles was carried out to see the past growth. 171 .
Nearly 96%-97% percent of passenger traffic and 79%-84% percent of freight traffic in this section are either originating from or destined to various parts of Maharashtra. The concept of developing regression equation to express dependent variable in terms of one or more independent variable is the registered motor vehicles in the zone of influence (State). It can be observed that growth rate 172 . and commercial vehicle growth with NSDP. NSDP. Elasticity values for registered motor vehicles with respect of NSDP. Per Capita Income and Industrial Index are worked out and conclusions are drawn. 8. buses with NSDP. Per Capita Income. As the traffic contribution is mainly from the Maharashtra State. due to inconsistencies in past traffic data. The methodology involved fitting log-log regression equations to the time series data.4 Comparison of Growth Rates by Various Methods Mode wise growth rates arrived by different methods are presented in Table 8. Population.8. The independent variables are socioeconomic parameters. However. The preferred dependent variable would have been past traffic on the Project Road. Consultants have developed the transport demand elasticities with respect to economic indicators of Maharashtra. etc. and population. Population. Industrial and agriculture output.11. Industrial Index and number of registered motor vehicles in Maharashtra are considered as independent variables for passenger and freight vehicles. The analysis of the O-D survey data along the project corridor indicates a strong influence of Maharashtra state in the traffic generation / attraction. number of registered motor vehicles is taken as dependent variable. It is logical to relate growth in cars and two wheelers with Net State Domestic Product (NSDP) and per capita income. The choice of independent variable depends upon vehicle type under consideration. Comparison of Growth Rates by Various Methods.4.3 Transport Demand Elasticity Approach Elasticity in the present context is defined as the ratio of percentage change in traffic to the percentage change in socio-economic parameters.4.
etc.) and infrastructure (e. This is theoretically a sound and acceptable approach. These past growth rates cannot be used for estimating future traffic on the Project Road. It is possible to predict independently the socio-economic variables like population. in a developing country with fluctuating economy. for future years and then assess future traffic growth rates using elasticity values already developed based on past data. there will always be some uncertainties in assessing the socio-economic variables for future years. fuel and taxes on several commodities. time. per capita income. Volume IV. NSDP.. Table 8. Therefore registered motor vehicles growth in Maharashtra is explored. The future traffic may not follow these growth rates due to several reasons. GNP etc. like changes in price of new vehicles.g. Improvement of existing rail services.4. loading and unloading of goods. It showed a growth more than 10%.g. 173 . Any substantial change in policy (e. 8.5 Suggested Growth Rates The estimated growth rates based on past traffic data have no definite trend.11: Comparison of Growth Rates by Various Methods Method Two Wheeler Past Traffic on Project Corridor Vehicle Registration of Maharashtra (1995-2000) Vehicle Registration of Thane District (1995-1999) Vehicle Registration of Nashik District (1995-1999) Elasticity Method (up to 2005) No trend 11% 17% 11% 12% Car No trend 12% 28% 14% 18% Mode Bus No trend 7% 8% 3% 9% Truck No trend 9% 5% 7% 11% Source: DPR for 4/6-laning of Gonde Vadape Section of NH-3. etc. while growth rate of cars varies between 12%-28% and that of bus and truck varies between 3%-9% and 5%-11% respectively. fare.of two wheelers varies between 11%-17%.) may also affect the traffic volume on the Project Road. However. travel. new railway line.
Volume IV.5 3 2016 to 2020 4 3 4 3 Beyond 2020 3 3 3 3 Source: DPR for 4/6-laning of Gonde Vadape Section of NH-3.12: Suggested Traffic Growth Rates. It may be mentioned that.Based on the above discussions and in discussion with MoRT&H officials. there would be some diversion of 174 . The estimated AADT along the project road section varied in the range of 11.12. Vadape-Gonde section of NH-3 is a well-established road corridor over a number of years.675 PCU. by vehicle type and direction. Also. Suggested Traffic Growth Rates) have been suggested and adopted for projecting future traffic. There are no alternate routes between Vadape and Gonde other than the existing road section of NH-3. The slow moving traffic is not expected to have high growth rates on National Highways.169 – 13.5 Traffic Forecast Daily traffic volume.5 4. Table 8.5 4 5 3 2011-2015 5 3. On enquiry. As such.696 VPD (vehicles per day). Seasonal variation factors have been applied to get The Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT). In terms of PCU. As such. The existing road will be widened to 4/6 lanes to cater to the existing and forecasted traffic and the users would still use the same road with improved facility.887 – 26. it is expected that the component of diverted traffic is insignificant. 8. a growth rate of 2% per annum has been considered for slow moving traffic. following growth rates (Table 8. Vehicle Type Two Wheeler/Car Bus/Auto LCV/Trucks Tractor Upto 2005 6 5 6 4 20062010 5. there would be marginal increase in industrial development along the project corridor. it was gathered that. at each of the three locations is added separately and averaged to determine the Average Daily Traffic (ADT). it varied in the range of 23.
It is expected that the component of the generated traffic would be of the order 2% of the traffic on the project corridor. for the horizon years 2005-2032 at 5 year intervals for all the three locations (Khambale. Traffic Forecast – Section II (Khardi) and Table 8. once the Ghoti-Sinner-Aurangabad Road becomes operational. This component of traffic is presently using NH-50 from Sinner to Chakan. Khardi and Padgha) are presented in Table 8. in terms of vehicles and PCU. during the period 2007-2009.13. 175 . Traffic forecast. the generated traffic would be usually considered during first three years of operation of the facility and the same is considered in the present study i.e. further SH-55 (from Chakan to Talegaon) and Mumbai-Pune Expressway/ NH-4 to reach Mumbai. Traffic Forecast – Section I (Khambale). the traffic has been projected upto the horizon year 2032. Moreover.traffic. both normal and generated traffic. Suggested Traffic Growth Rates. Using the growth rates presented in Table 8. Traffic Forecast – Section III (Padgha) respectively.15.14. Table 8.12.
Volume IV.13: Traffic Forecast – Section I (Khambale) Car/ Jeep 3620 4311 5973 7623 9274 1512 1923 1753 2229 1805 2296 1859 2365 5033 16376 4886 15899 1250 1287 4744 15435 1214 4092 13315 1047 1304 1659 3530 11485 903 118 136 158 163 168 1072 1431 2901 9440 742 101 840 1205 2328 7575 596 87 279 309 341 376 415 424 432 606 934 1721 5599 440 71 239 509 807 145 4701 370 63 225 13696 16237 22041 27591 33401 38702 44846 46187 47568 Van/ Tempo Bus LCV Truck MAV Tractor Slow Total moving Vehicles Vehicles Total PCU 26675 31626 42691 53133 64312 74528 86369 88954 91617 Year TwoAuto wheelers 2002 1513 443 2005 1802 513 2010 2497 661 2015 3186 785 2020 3877 911 2025 4494 1056 10751 2030 5210 1224 12464 2031 5366 1260 12838 2032 5527 1298 13223 Source: DPR for 4/6-laning of Gonde Vadape Section of NH-3.Table 8. 176 .
177 .Table 8.14: Traffic Forecast – Section II (Khardi) Car/ Jeep 3264 3888 5386 6874 8363 9695 377 388 400 1991 4924 15977 1933 4780 15512 1876 4641 15060 1099 1132 1165 325 1619 4003 12991 948 280 1396 3453 11206 817 25 29 34 35 36 230 1204 2838 9211 672 22 181 1014 2278 7391 539 19 130 786 1684 5463 399 15 52 61 67 74 81 90 92 94 109 679 1414 4587 335 13 49 11169 13268 18034 22590 27394 31753 36806 37910 39046 Van/ Tempo Bus LCV Truck MAV Tractor Slow Total moving Vehicles Vehicles Total PCU 23887 28373 38363 47799 57937 67161 77854 80189 82594 Year Twowheelers Auto 2002 597 121 2005 711 140 2010 985 181 2015 1257 215 2020 1530 249 2025 1773 289 2030 2056 335 11240 2031 217 345 11577 2032 2181 355 11924 Source: DPR for 4/6-laning of Gonde Vadape Section of NH-3. Volume IV.
178 .Table 8. Volume IV.15: Traffic Forecast – Section III (Padgha) Car/ Jeep 3446 4104 5686 7256 8829 10235 11865 12221 12588 1465 1889 4867 17044 1422 1834 4725 16548 1193 1229 1381 1781 4587 16066 1158 1191 1536 3957 13859 999 1027 1325 3413 11955 862 15 18 21 21 22 844 1143 2805 9826 708 13 662 963 2251 7885 568 11 61 67 74 82 91 93 94 478 746 1664 5828 420 9 52 401 645 1397 4893 353 8 49 13109 15564 21150 26491 32092 37199 43119 44412 45743 Van/ Tempo Bus LCV Truck MAV Tractor Slow Total moving Vehicles Vehicles Total PCU 25884 30745 41589 51841 62833 72837 Year TwoAuto wheelers 2002 1285 632 2005 1530 731 2010 2120 943 2015 2706 1120 2020 3292 1299 2025 3817 1506 2030 4425 1745 2031 4557 1798 2032 4694 1852 Source: DPR for 4/6-laning of Gonde Vadape Section of NH-3.
The traffic of Khambale location is considered for Section I and that of Padgha for Section II. Section I Section II : : km 440 to km 490 – 50 km km 490 to km 540 – 50 km Two toll plazas have been proposed in km 446/000 to 447/000 for Section I and in km 521/00 to 521/500 in Section II. IRC: 92-1985 (Guidelines for the design of Interchanges in Urban Areas) and IRC: SP: 41-1994 (Guidelines for the Design of AtGrade Intersections in Rural and Urban Areas) etc. would be exempted from paying toll. 179 . 8. Auto Rickshaw and Tempo) and 75% of goods vehicles (excluding agricultural tractors) will be tolled. Share of tollable traffic among goods vehicles is high.7 Traffic Signals and Interchanges Consultants have studied the requirement of traffic signals and interchanges at the major junctions on project corridor as per IRC: 93-1985 (Guidelines on Design and Installation of Traffic Signals).8. it is assumed that 3% of total traffic consisting of Government Vehicles. the project corridor has been divided into the following two sections. Fire Fighting Vehicles etc. For this purpose the OD survey information was used to separate out the local traffic component from total traffic. About 25% of goods vehicles are nontollable. In additional. Ambulances.6 Projected Tollable Traffic For the purpose of BOT / Financial Analysis. Hence it is not desirable to levy toll on local traffic which is of short distance nature. About 70% of passenger vehicles (excluding 2-Wheeler. This may be mainly due to LCVs having short haul trips near the urban areas. An estimation of tollable traffic for levying toll on the Project Road section is necessary since the Project Road is conceived as toll project with partial access control.
An interchange may be justified when an at-grade intersections fails to handle the volume of traffic resulting in serious congestion and frequent choking of the intersection. An interchange may be justified at the crossing of a major arterial road with another road of similar category carrying heavy traffic. This situation may arise when the traffic on all the arms of the intersection is in excess of 10. In some situations. the required traffic control facilities at the major junctions are traffic signals. number of accidents etc. /Hr.e.Brief summary on Warrants for Interchanges as per IRC: 92-1985 is presented below:Interchanges will be necessary at all crossings of highway which are to be developed as completely access controlled. Various major intersections warrant for traffic signal system in various horizon years. fully grade separated interchange facilities are not required. 180 . As per the IRC warrants. as mentioned above. traffic volume in Veh. Traffic volume has been complied in such a way that IRC warrants for installation of traffic signals can be identified (i. the other warrants like topography. Traffic flow diagrams for the seven intersections separately for the base year (2002) and horizon year (2032) are studied. However. the topography is such that interchanges are the only type that can be constructed economically. on major road and minor road at the Junctions to study the requirement of traffic signals at the Junctions). considering the following aspects. Considering the projected junction volume in horizon years. need to be studied for proposing the partially grade separated facilities at the junctions.000 PCU’s/hour. it was inferred that. However. High and disproportionate rate of fatal and major accidents at an intersection and not found to respond to other traffic control or improvement measures may warrant an interchange.
Volume IV. Favourable topography for an underpass. the vicinity of junction is water-logged area. ¾ Number of fatal accidents on the project corridor.16: Proposed Junction Improvements Measures Junction Name Vaitarna Junction Igatpuri Junction Khardi Junction Shahpur Junction Asangaon Junction Bapgaon Junction Proposed Junction Improvement Remarks Median Break along with Unfavourable topography for an blinking traffic signals underpass i.the Consultants have proposed flyovers / vehicular underpasses / median breaks along with junction improvements. the vicinity of junction is water-logged area. Proposed Junction Improvements Measures. ¾ Favourable topography for construction of vehicular underpasses at some junctions.e. 181 . Favourable topography for an underpass. as an alternative to traffic signal system. Vehicular Underpass Vehicular Underpass Vehicular Underpass Vehicular Underpass Favourable topography for an underpass.e. Source: DPR for 4/6-laning of Gonde Vadape Section of NH-3. ¾ Difficulties in maintenance of traffic signal system at junctions located on rural roads. Favourable topography for an underpass. The proposed junction improvement measures are presented in Table 8. Table 8. ¾ Project corridor is partially access controlled.16. Median Break along with Unfavourable topography for an blinking traffic signals underpass i.
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