The weekly briefing | 20 January 2014

Political and security risk updates

Africa: Ugandan army helping South Sudan fight re els as U! "arns of "ar crimes# Americas: $ederal troops attle "ith gangs and %igilantes for control o%er the &e'ican state of &ichoac(n# Asia and Pacific: Japan re uts rumours that President Shin)o * e is seeking to re%ise history te't ooks# Europe: Ukraine passes anti+protest legislation aimed at cur ing ongoing anti+ go%ernment demonstrations# Middle East: ,gyptians %ote in first allot since military remo%ed &ohammed &orsi from po"er# Polar regions: !e" US !a%y *rctic strategy calls for more ice reakers#

*frica
Ugandan army helping South Sudan fight rebels as U warns of war crimes

Uganda has issued a statement a out its forces assisting the South Sudanese *rmy in its fight against re els# On 1- January. Ugandan President /o"eri &use%eni admitted for the first time helping South Sudan0s President Sal%a 1iir fight the re els# &use%eni stated that Ugandan soldiers helped defeat re el forces outside of Ju a on 12 January# On 13 January. Uganda4s military spokesman. 5ieutenant 6olonel Paddy *nkunda. announced that Ugandan troops "ere engaged in efforts to dri%e re el forces from Bor. a strategically important to"n near the capital. Ju a# 7he statements from 1ampala mark the first admission of Ugandan in%ol%ement in the South Sudanese conflict. after pre%ious denials and official statements a out only assisting the e%acuation of ci%ilians# 7he fighting started as a po"er struggle et"een 1iir and his former deputy. 8iek &achar. "ho no" leads the re el forces after eing accused of planning a coup# 7he open in%ol%ement of an outside force risks further escalating the conflict and raises further concerns a out the regional implications of the conflict# Other actors are likely to ecome in%ol%ed should they percei%e their interests to e at stake. "hich could lead to pro'y confrontations# On 19 January. the United !ations stated that it had e%idence of the use of child soldiers and "ar crimes committed y oth sides in the conflict# &ean"hile. peace negotiations continue in ,thiopia# *ddis * a a had pre%iously declared that e'ternal troops engaging in South Sudan "ould e :a solutely un"arranted0# *s South Sudanese troops continued their ad%ance on Bor. mediators met re el leader &achar in an effort to ring ceasefire negotiations for"ard#

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"ther de#elopments The acting president of the $entral African %epublic &$A%'( Ale)andre*+erdinand guendet( has declared that ,the party is o#er- as deserting soldiers and police returned to duty# !guendet pledged on 12 January that the "eeks of anarchy and sectarian %iolence "ould e s"iftly rought to an end. issuing "arnings to the "arring parties. the predominantly &uslim Seleka and the 6hristian anti+Balaka fighters# 7he pre%ious day. "arring fighters had struck a truce in Southern Bangui. "ith hopes for a calmer period for the "hole of the country# ;ith 1.000 killed in the past month alone and a fifth of the country4s population eing displaced as a result of the %iolence. despite $rench and *frican inter%ention. !guendet4s pro%isional parliament no" faces the task of sta ilising the situation and finding a ne" transitional president# 7he United States. mean"hile. stated that more international peacekeepers may e needed to impro%e the situation in 6*8# The trial of four men charged with helping al*.aeda linked militants in the /estgate Mall attack has opened in 0enya# 7he four men. "ho appeared in court on 1- January. all deny charges of using false documents and pro%iding support and shelter to the gunmen "ho killed at least 39 people in the attack on the !airo i mall on 21 Septem er 2012# *ll the gunmen died in the attack. "hich "as claimed y Somali <slamist re el group al+Sha aa . highlighting the group4s a ility to strike outside Somalia# igerian President 1oodluck 2onathan has sacked military chiefs after a court ruled their appointments were unconstitutional3 On 13 January. Jonathan0s office stated that he had replaced the heads of !igeria4s army. na%y and air force in "hat marks the fourth year of the country4s conflict "ith Boko =aram# 5ast year. human rights la"yer $estus 1eyamo had mounted a challenge to the military appointments. arguing they had not een appro%ed y the national assem ly# <n July. the =igh 6ourt in * u>a declared that the appointments had indeed een unconstitutional# &ilitary operations against Boko =aram continue. "ith fre?uent clashes in the northeastern Borno state in particular# On 1- January. a car om killed at least 2@ people in the key attleground of &aiduguri# "n the radar • The U Security $ouncil will consult on the 4oint United ations*African Union operation in

5arfur &U AM65' and 5emocratic %epublic of the $ongo sanctions3 • Madagascar braces itself for opposition protests after the electoral court officially declares =ery 8a>aonarimampianina president+elect among accusations of %ote rigging#

*mericas
+ederal troops battle with gangs and #igilantes for control o#er the Me)ican state of Michoac7n On 10 January. the go%ernor of &ichoac(n. $austo Aalle>o. re?uested help from the federal go%ernment to respond to a security crisis in the state# 7his follo"ed a recent spate of %iolence in "hich masked gunmen looted and set fire to shops and the main municipal uilding in the *pat)ing(n district# &ichoac(n state has ecome the stage for regular confrontations et"een the 1nights 7emplar cartel and %igilante groups# <n response to last "eek0s e%ents. President ,nri?ue PeBa !ieto announced the deployment of federal troops to re+esta lish order in the state# =e "arned that anyone caught "ith "eapons "ould e punished in accordance "ith the la"# =o"e%er. ci%il militia ha%e refused to surrender in some districts in spite of the go%ernment0s demand# Open Briefing | !

7he surge in %iolence in &ichoac(n demonstrates the limits of PeBa !ieto0s security policies# <t is in the same state that former President $elipe 6alderCn first launched his unsuccessful "ar on drugs in 2009. sparking %iolence in "hich as many as D0.000 people are elie%ed to ha%e died# Euring his election campaign in Eecem er 2012. PeBa !ieto promised to adopt a ne" approach to the country0s drug cartels# 7his "as reflected in an o%erall decrease in the num er of deployed federal troops# But as the troops "ithdre". drug cartels took ad%antage of the situation to e'pend their operations# <t is in this conte't that ci%il militias emerged in response to the increased presence of the 1nights 7emplars cartel in &ichoac(n state# Until recently. those groups enefited from the implicit acking of the go%ernment. "hich used them to fight a pro'y "ar against the cartels# =o"e%er. as the self+defence %igilante groups egan to take o%er entire districts it ecame clear that such strategy "as fraught "ith risk# <n the current climate. many remote %illages rely e'clusi%ely on the militias for their security# 7he self+ proclaimed leader of the militias. Jose &anue &ireles. announced that his men "ill not gi%e up their "eapons until the drug traffickers ha%e een arrested# $or PeBa !ieto this %iolence is especially ad timing. as the country seeks to attract in%estments for its ne"ly li eralised energy sector# $urthermore. the country is to host US President Barack O ama and 6anadian Prime &inister Stephen =arper for a trade summit ne't month# "ther de#elopments A killing spree in 9ra:il raises concerns o#er the integrity of the country-s security forces3 On the e%ening of 12 January. 12 people "ere murdered in the city of 6ampinas. in the SFo Paulo state# $ollo"ing the killings. uses and cars "ere torched on 12 January in the same area# 7he 12 murders shared similar characteristics and occurred in a three+hour time inter%al# 7he "eapons used in the murders "ere the same cali re as those used y the military police. arousing suspicions that officers "ere in%ol%ed in a retaliatory attack# *n in%estigation is no" under"ay# 7he killings add to the continuing security concerns regarding the capacity of the national police to handle the 2014 ;orld 6up and the Olympics in 2013# "n 18 2anuary( a $olombian court put a temporary hold on a contro#ersial decision to remo#e 9ogot7 Mayor 1usta#o Petro from office3 <n early Eecem er. <nspector General *le>andro OrdCBe) ordered the remo%al of Petro for alleged mismanagement of the ru ish collection system. and anned him from

holding pu lic office for a period of 1- years# $or "eeks. thousands of supporters ha%e marched on Bogota4s Boli%ar S?uare in protest at Petro0s sacking# *s a former mem er of the &+1@ guerrilla group. Petro is a sym ol of 6olom ia0s left# =e is also held up as an e'ample of ho" former re els can e integrated into the political process# 7he court0s decision is likely to positi%ely impact the current go%ernment peace talks "ith the 8e%olutionary *rmed $orces of 6olom ia H$*86I# The 5ominican %epublic has suspended its deportation of undocumented ;aitians3 On 19 January. the Eominican go%ernment announced that it "ould halt the deportation of =aitians descendants# 7he decision follo"s a contro%ersial ruling on 22 Septem er 2012 that stripped descendants of =aitian migrants of their citi)enship. "hich affected in the region of 200.000 Eominicans and led to a spike in tensions et"een the Eominican and =aitian go%ernments# 7he recent announcement is likely to rela' the ilateral relationship some"hat#

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"n the radar • =arge crowds of urban youths from depri#ed backgrounds ha#e flooded shopping malls across ma4or cities across 9ra:il3 7he flash mo s. kno"n as :role)inhos0. are e'pected to continue until at least 1- $e ruary# • "n !> 2anuary( the 6nternational $ourt of 2ustice is to rule on a maritime frontier dispute between Peru and $hile3 • 9ra:ilian President 5ilma %ousseff and her Me)ican counterpart Enri?ue Pe@a attend the 5a#os summit from 22 to 2- January# • Unrest in the 5ominican %epublic due to shutdown strikes o#er a proposed sales ta) increase is likely to continue until 81 2anuary3 ieto will

*sia and Pacific
2apan rebuts rumours that President Shin:o Abe is seeking to re#ise history te)tbooks *s tensions mount again "ith 6hina. Japanese $oreign &inister $umio 1ishida has re utted rumours that Shin)o * e0s administration is seeking to re%ise history te't ooks to display a pro+Japanese historical perspecti%e# 7he statement. made during a press conference on 19 January. "ill go some "ay in allaying the suspicions and concerns of 6hina0s foreign ministry# <t suggests that * e. though seeking to re+"rite Japan0s pacifist constitution. "ill not contradict his predecessors "ho ackno"ledged the suffering and damage "hich Japan caused in the past# 6hina consistently reminds the "orld of the 1@29 !an>ing &assacre. in "hich 200.000 people are claimed to ha%e een murdered y Japanese troops in 6hina0s then capital# <n Japan. many hardline conser%ati%es deny these e%ents and figures. and the stance of * e4s 5i eral Eemocratic Party is that these accounts are iased# 7his has o %iously angered the 6hinese. and * e4s contro%ersial %isit to the /asukuni ;ar Shrine. "hich honours "ar criminals amongst its dead. "as seen as deli erately inflammatory at a time "hen the disputed SenkakuJEiaoyu islands in the ,ast 6hina Sea ha%e een the su >ect of much political rhetoric# * e has effecti%ely portrayed himself as a strong. decisi%e and pragmatic leader# By using the sym olism of the /asukuni Shrine. he has successfully rallied nationalist and conser%ati%e politicians to adopt a more aggressi%e policy against 6hina0s gro"ing asserti%eness# *t the same time. though * e is clearly not happy "ith the 6hinese perspecti%e of accounts. he has not outright denied 6hina0s historical perspecti%e of the e%ents in !an>ing# <n doing so. e'cessi%e and unnecessary conflict has een a%oided. and he has sho"ed he "ill not completely gi%e in to pressures coming from his nationalist party mem ers# =o"e%er. disputes in the South 6hina Sea are ongoing and * e0s recognition of Japan0s "ar crimes should not e seen as a less asserti%e stance# "ther de#elopments A grenade blast during an anti*go#ernment rally in 9angkok on 1> 2anuary killed one and in4ured more than 8A people3 7his rings the total death toll since protests egan in !o%em er to nine# Protestors are calling for Prime &inister /ingluck Shina"atra to resign and are planning to oycott the planned 2 $e ruary elections# &iddle class protestors fear that their %ie"s "ill e dro"ned out y Shina"atra0s lo"er class supporters and ha%e therefore turned to mass protest# 7he protestors ha%e caused se%ere disruption in Bangkok and refuse to lea%e until Shina"atra resigns# Open Briefing | <

6ndonesia has spoken out against Australia-s accidental na#al incursions into its waters as a ,#iolation of its so#ereignty-3 *ustralian <mmigration &inister Scott &orrison stated that these %iolations "ere not een sanctioned y the go%ernment and that *ustralia takes seriously the shared commitment to mutually :respect the so%ereignty of each nation0# 7he *ustralian !a%y ha%e cited positional errors as the cause# 8elations et"een <ndonesia and *ustralia ha%e een strained. as <ndonesia ser%es as a transit point for "ould+ e asylum seekers heading to *ustralia4s 6hristmas <sland# *ustralian Prime &inister 7ony * turned ack to <ndonesia# $hinese police ha#e reportedly detained 6lham Tohti( an outspoken Uighur academic and critic of 9ei4ing-s ethnic policies3 $oreign &inistry spokesman =ong 5ei said that 7ohti "as suspected of :committing crimes and %iolating the la"0# Security and alert le%els in Kin>iang. home to nine million Uighurs. ha%e een raised follo"ing an incident in 7iananmen S?uare in Octo er 2012. "hich left fi%e dead. and "hich Bei>ing argue "as masterminded y Uighur separatists# 7ohti4s detention is the latest sign of an increased hardline stance on Kin>iang# "n the radar • Thailand-s anti*corruption commission is in#estigating Prime Minister Bingluck Shinawatra in connection "ith a contro%ersial go%ernment rice su sidy scheme# • The trial of Cu Dhiyong( the +ounder the acti#ist( will begin in $hina on !! 2anuary3 • The Association of Southeast Asian 9agan( Myanmar( from 22+23 January# • 0haleda Dia( the leader of the 9angladesh 20 January to press for a fresh allot# • "pposition party Pakistan Awami Tehreek has called for nationwide demonstrations o#er the coming days3 ationalist party( will hold nationwide marches on ations +oreign Ministers Summit will take place in ew $iti:ensE Mo#ement and outspoken ci#il rights ott has een under scrutiny at the United !ations after his anti+immigration policies ha%e seen oats eing

,urope
Ukraine passes anti*protest legislation aimed at curbing ongoing anti*go#ernment demonstrations On 13 January. Ukrainian &Ps loyal to President Aiktor /anuko%ych passed anti+protest la"s. aimed at cur ing the recent ongoing anti+go%ernment protests# 7hose "ho %oted for the motion included mem ers of the ruling Party of 8egions. mem ers of the 6ommunist party and a num er of independent %oters# Aoting "as y the unusual method of :%oting y hand0. rather than the traditional electronic %oting and the la"s "ere acked y 22- out of 4-0 politicians# 7he opposition argued that this "as illegal and fear that the ne" legislation "ould ena le the go%ernment to prosecute them and reak up the protest mo%ement# 7hey called for a ne" "a%e of protests#

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One of the ne" la"s anned any unauthorised installations of stages. amplifiers or tents in pu lic spaces and suspects "ill e fined or detained# $ollo"ing the opposition0s protests in recent days outside go%ernment offices including the president0s countryside residence. the la" also anned demonstrations that in%ol%e more than fi%e %ehicles to lockade uildings. "ith offenders facing up to fi%e years in prison# 7he other ne" la" makes it illegal to slander go%ernment officials Hincluding on the internetI. and those found guilty "ill face a year of correcti%e la our# 7he three main parties claimed that the go%ernment0s decision for %oting y hand "as illegal and that the s"itch had een made after the go%ernment realised that they did not ha%e enough supporters# 7he opposition attempted to disrupt %oting. y locking the speaker0s platform# *n &P for the Party of 8egions Oleh 7sario% defended the la"s arguing that they "ould pre%ent further escalation of this recent political crisis. "hilst the Ukrainian opposition "arned that the ne" restrictions "ould further inflame the protest mo%ement# Aitali 1litschko. leader of Udar party. condemned the ills as a coup d4Ltat# Se%eral ,U countries and the United States e'pressed deep concerns o%er the ne" ill and urged Ukraine to scrap the legislation# 7he ,U enlargement 6ommissioner. Stefan $ule. asserted that this recent mo%e y the Ukrainian go%ernment contradicted the country0s ,uropean aspirations as "ell as its commitment to the ,U+Ukraine *ssociation *greement# 7he non+state controlled Ukrainian media claimed that the ne" la"s "ould limit democratic freedoms and placed Ukraine on the path to a dictatorship# 7he protest mo%ement has d"indled in the last month ut it is e'pected that a ne" "a%e of protests "ill egin again from last "eekend# "ther de#elopments "n 1F 2anuary( $:ech police disco#ered a second bomb at the Palestinian embassy in Prague3 On 1 January. the Palestinian *m assador "as killed after a oo y+trapped safe e'ploded# $ollo"ing the death. the 6)ech foreign ministry accused the Palestinians of reaching international o ligations. after security forces found 12 illegal "eapons in the residency# 7he Palestinians ha%e apologised and claim that they "ere recei%ed as gifts from the former 6)echoslo%akia# 6)ech police are still testing "hether these "eapons ha%e een used# "n 1G 2anuary( %ussian anti*terrorism officers surrounded a house in 5agestan and killed se#en people who security forces suspected of the terrorist attack on 1> 2anuary3 &ilitants had launched a grenade attack on a restaurant and detonated a om once police "ere at the scene# <t is unkno"n if the suspects "ere criminals or <slamic militants# 8ussia has stepped up its security operations in the region in the lead up to ne't month0s Sochi Olympics. "hich is located close to Eagestan. and the t"o terrorist attacks in Aolgograd in Eecem er 2012. "hich the 8ussian go%ernment elie%es militants "ere ehind# According to 1erman media( the 1erman go#ernment is leading negotiations with other members of the EU on a European anti*espionage agreement3 7he reports say that the discussions ha%e een going on for se%eral months and ha%e included topics such as anning political and economic spying on allies. not allo"ing citi)ens0 data to e handed o%er if national la"s for id it and only allo"ing monitoring acti%ities in order to com at terrorism and the proliferation of "eapons of mass destruction#

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"n the radar • The new $:ech prime minister( 2iHI %usnok( will make his first #isit to Slo#akia later this month3 • EU +oreign %elations $hief $atherine Ashton will attend the 1ene#a 66 peace talks on Syria in &ontreu'. S"it)erland. on 22 January# • Turkish Prime Minister %ecep Tayyip Erdogan will #isit 9russels for the first time in three years on 21 January# • "n !! 2anuary( the European $ommission will un#eil new targets for cutting $"! emissions by !J8J3 • Kiolent demonstrations are possible in orthern 6reland on 8J 2anuary( which marks the

anni#ersary of the 1L>! 9loody Sunday shooting in =ondonderry3

&iddle ,ast
Egyptians #ote in first ballot since military remo#ed Mohammed Morsi from power On 14 and 1- January. ,gyptians %oted in fa%our of a ne" constitution drafted y the military+ acked interim go%ernment# 7he referendum marks the first pu lic allot to e held in the country since the military deposed former elected president &ohammed &orsi in July 2012# 7he ne" constitution "ill replace that drafted y &orsi0s go%ernment in 2012# 8eports emerged that at least 11 people "ere killed in clashes throughout the country on 14 January# ,arly turnout figures "ere placed in the region of 2DM. higher than the 22M that %oted in a referendum under the &orsi go%ernment in 2012# Unofficial figures estimate that @9M %oted in fa%our of the ne" constitution. "hich "ill further strengthen the influence of the military. the police and the >udiciary# &oreo%er. the o%er"helming yes %ote "ill e treated y the interim go%ernment as a %ote of confidence in the direction that the country has taken since the military coup in 2012# =o"e%er. <slamist groups. particularly supporters of the &uslim Brotherhood. almost all oycotted the referendum in protest at the remo%al of &orsi and the su se?uent crackdo"n on anti+go%ernment demonstrators# $urthermore. the interim go%ernment has een accused of suppressing the no campaign and conducting the referendum against a ackdrop of fear# <n the run up to the referendum. General * del $attah al+Sisi hinted that a strong yes %ote and significant turnout "ould e %ie"ed as a mandate to run for the presidency later this year# 7he results pro%ide al+Sisi "ith the endorsement that he "as seeking# 7he ne" constitution. drafted y a panel of secularists. "ill remo%e certain <slamist+leaning clauses that "ere introduced under &orsi# 7ensions et"een security forces and supporters of the e'cluded &uslim Brotherhood are likely to remain high#

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"ther de#elopments The 6slamic State of 6ra? and the =e#ant &6S6=' retook control of the Syrian city of ar*%a??ah on 1< 2anuary3 !orthern Syria has een engulfed in conflict et"een se%eral militia groups "ith different ideologies# 7he <S<5 "ere dri%en out of ar+8a??ah in the pre%ious "eek y a coalition of anti+go%ernment groups ut regained control after days of fighting# 7he city of ar+8a??ah is the only pro%incial capital that has remained out of go%ernment control and the su se?uent infighting et"een the <S<5 and other anti+ go%ernment groups reflects the lack of sta ility and authority in northern Syria# On 1- January. the <S<5 "ere suspected of detonating a car om that killed at least 23 people in the to"n of Jara ulus. north of *leppo# 7he <S<5 is made up of largely foreign fighters and has een accused of committing atrocities against local communities# 6lashes et"een re el factions are e'pected to continue# Two 1erman diplomats were attacked in Saudi Arabia on 18 2anuary as unknown militants fired upon their #ehicle in the eastern town of Awamiya3 7here "ere no casualties reported ut their %ehicle caught fire# 7he to"n of *"amiya is located in the Natif district. an area that has een at the heart of ci%il unrest in the country since 2011# 7he Shi0ah population ha%e een demonstrating against percei%ed repression y the Sunni+dominated Saudi state# Turkish counter*terrorism police raided the offices of an aid agency close to the Syrian border on 1< 2anuary3 7he =umanitarian 8elief $oundation office in the city of 1ilis deli%ers aid to Syria across the order# =o"e%er. operations ha%e een accused of supplying al+Naeda affiliated groups "ith aid# <n%estigations ha%e increased since 1 January after 7urkish security forces on the Syrian order detained a truck allegedly operating on ehalf of the foundation that "as loaded "ith arms and ammunition# 7he rise of al+Naeda affiliated militant groups in northern Syria has lead to accusations that 7urkey has een lending support to radical <slamist groups. an accusation that Prime &inister 8ecep 7ayyip ,rdoOan has denied# "n the radar • A deal between 6ran and the PAM1 that is intended to pa#e the way to a solution o#er Tehran-s nuclear ambitions will commence on !J 2anuary3 • 1ene#a 66 talks aimed at bringing an end to the Syrian ci#il war are scheduled to begin on !! 2anuary3 <t is still unclear "hich opposition groups "ill attend# • Senior delegates from Pakistan are due to arri#e in the United States on !> 2anuary to discuss future ilateral cooperation# • The United States announced that it would soon deli#er another instalment of small arms and ammunitions to 6ra? as the country attles al+Naeda affiliated groups to regain control of *n ar pro%ince# • 5emonstrations are likely across Bemen on 11 +ebruary( "hich marks the anni%ersary of the 2011 ci%il uprising#

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Polar regions
ew US a#y Arctic strategy calls for more icebreakers

US !a%y officials ha%e called for the construction of more *rctic+ready ships. particularly ice reakers. in an as+yet+unreleased strategy document. a draft %ersion of "hich "as passed on to >ournalists at the Wall Street Journal on 12 January# *ccording to the ne"spaper. the ne" na%y strategy says that rapidly retreating le%els of summer ice in the *rctic "ill lead to :increased commercial traffic. oil and gas e'ploration and tourism0. "hich in turn :"ill create ne" demands in the *rctic0# 7he ne"spaper argues that the US !a%y is unprepared to meet these challenges. as it lacks :operational e'perienceP ships properly outfitted for the e'treme "eatherP and QsufficientR satellite co%erage0# 7he strategy document follo"s the release of t"o ma>or policy papers in 2012S President Barack O ama0s &ay National Strategy for the Arctic Region and Secretary of Eefense 6huck =agel0s Arctic Strategy, released in !o%em er# 7he authors of oth papers "ere only too a"are of the massi%e udget cuts to US defense spending planned for the ne't fe" years and shied a"ay from making concrete procurement demands# <n contrast. US !a%y officials "ho spoke to the Wall Street Journal are clear a out "hat is needed and ho" much it "ill cost# By far the most important item on their procurement "ish+list is the construction of 10 ne" ice reakers at an estimated cost of T9D4 million per ship# <f the president and defence secretary are serious a out their commitment to increasing US military and commercial acti%ity in the *rctic there is no dou t that these ice reakers "ill ha%e to e uilt# 7he US 6oast Guard is already tracking commercial traffic that is up 23M since 2011. an increase that it claims to e "oefully undere?uipped to protect# <ce reakers are essential not only for opening ne" sea lanes ut also for pro%iding such ser%ices as search and rescue operations and protecting commercial traffic from potential piracy# But the US 6oastguard currently only has t"o ice reakers in its fleet. the largest of "hich is the po"erful yet ancient Polar Star commissioned almost 40 years ago in 1@93# By contrast. 6anada possesses three times as many ice reakers. and the 8ussian fleet stands at 2-. si' of "hich are nuclear po"ered# ;ith T21 illion in spending cuts to e met this year. and a further T42 illion in the ne't. the US !a%y "ill struggle to persuade 6ongress to allocate the re?uired funds# &ean"hile. the 8ussian go%ernment already has 99 illion rou les HT2#2 illionI earmarked for the construction of t"o ne" giant ice reakers po"ered y t"in nuclear reactors# ;ith ice reakers an essential prere?uisite for any e'pansion into the *rctic. the United States appears to e far ehind in the race for the control of the region# !e%ertheless. it remains an undecided ?uestion "hether such a race is really necessary# 7hus far. *rctic states ha%e "orked closely together in pro%iding mutual security and search and rescue capa ilities in the far north# ;hile the pressure for one of these states to act unilaterally may increase if the *rctic region deli%ers on its apparent riches. as of yet there is no reason to significantly dou t that *rctic cooperation could continue long into the future# 7he US !a%y is e'pected to officially pu lish its *rctic strategy paper in the ne't t"o "eeks#

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"ther de#elopments The United States and %ussia are drafting #oluntary regulations to manage increased traffic in the 9ering Strait3 !o country o"ns the Bering Strait "aters and no international la" manages %ehicle mo%ement through the passage# *s ice melts and traffic increases. this a sence of regulation creates ha)ardous conditions for %essels# US 6oast Guard *dmiral 7homas Oste o says the gro"ing risk is his primary concern for the *rctic. likening the Bering Strait to the Panama 6anal# 7he %oluntary system "ould ser%e as a placeholder until the <nternational &artine Organisation passed la"s to go%ern the strait. a process e'pected to take many years# Oste o says the United States is sponsoring the la" and is seeking support from 8ussia to help mo%e the ruling for"ard# +inland-s "fficers- Union supports AT" membership( according to a poll conducted in o#ember

and 5ecember !J18 and published by %adio $anada 6nternational on 1A 2anuary3 :*lmost D0M of officers don0t elie%e that "e ha%e an independent and credi le defence force0. says the $innish Officers0 Union General Secretary =annu SipilU. "ith -1M of those polled coming to the conclusion that !*7O mem ership is essential to meet this capa ility gap# 7he poll found support for !*7O much higher amongst the senior echelons of the $innish armed forces# <n 2012. oth the United States and 8ussia "eighed into the de ate in S"eden and $inland as to "hether to file for !*7O mem ershipV "hile US defence official James 7o"nsend stated that :the door is open0 to $inish mem ership. 8ussian defence chief !ikolai &akaro% threatened that such a mo%e could ha%e :serious political and trade conse?uences0 for 8ussia0s Scandina%ian neigh ours# /ith Arctic drilling on the hori:on for !J1<( Shell-s new boss 9en #an 9eurden has issued a shock profit warning( saying that the oil giant0s fourth ?uarter figures "ere e'pected to e :significantly lo"er than recent le%els of profita ility0 ecause of :"eak industry conditionsW# Greenpeace sei)ed on the announcement to criticise the company0s *rctic am itions# 7he fact that Shell0s share price continues to stagnate despite the promise of massi%e in%estment in the *rctic made in late 2012 could challenge the "idely accepted orthodo'y that the oil ma>ors0 success on international stock markets is largely determined y their a ility to point to in%estment in increased producti%e capacity. e%en "here that in%estment is of du ious ?uality# <f the trend continues. it could ha%e a ma>or impact on the financial feasi ility of future drilling pro>ects in *rctic "aters# "n the radar • orwegian +oreign Minister 9Nrge 9rende is to tra#el to Moscow on !J 2anuary for talks with %ussian counterpart Sergey =a#ro#3 7he main item on the agenda is e'pected to e 8ussia0s an on !or"egian fish imports. "hich came into effect on 1 January follo"ing a surprise announcement in late Eecem er 2012# • Academics from around the world will meet in TromsN( orway( on !J*!1 2anuary to discuss

policy recommendations for *rctic states under the heading :*rctic $rontiersS =umans in the *rctic0#

Published with intelligence support from Bradburys Global Ris Partners | www3bradburys3co3uk Open Briefing | 1J

Open Briefing is the "orld0s first intelligence agency for ci%il society# ;e produce actiona le and predicti%e intelligence# ;e tell you "hat has happened and "hat is likely to happen ne't# &ost importantly. "e tell you "hy# ;e do this so that etter informed citi)ens can more effecti%ely engage in peace and security de ates and ci%il society organisations can make the right ad%ocacy choices# 7ogether. "e can then influence positi%e defence. security and foreign policy decisions y our go%ernments# Open Briefing is a old and am itious not+for+profit social enterprise# ;e are a uni?ue colla oration of intelligence. military. la" enforcement. go%ernment and media professionals from around the "orld# 6hallenge the status ?uo# 7ake intelligence into your o"n hands# www3openbriefing3org

Analysts: 5aura =artmann. 7ancrXde $euillade. Gary 6han. 6laudia ;agner. Eaniel 7aylor. Patrick Se"ell and 6hris * ott#

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