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Nile Basin Relations: Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia July 2006 – David H. Shinn Nile eog!

aphy and Hyd!ology "he Nile Rive! is the longest in the #o!ld #hile the Nile Basin $ove!s %.& 'illion s(ua!e 'iles, 'a)ing it slightly la!ge! than *ndia. "he!e a!e ten !ipa!ian $ount!ies+ Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia, ,ganda, "an-ania, .enya, De'o$!ati$ Repu/li$ o0 the 1ongo, R#anda, Bu!undi, and E!it!ea. "h!ee o0 the ten+Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia+a!e 0a! 'o!e i'po!tant than the !e'aining seven 0!o' the standpoint o0 Nile #ate! hyd!ology and potential politi$al $on0li$t o! $oope!ation ove! Nile #ate! issues. "he th!ee a$$ount 0o! 23 pe!$ent o0 the te!!ito!y that $onstitutes the hyd!ologi$ /ounda!ies o0 the /asin. Sudan $ontains 6& pe!$ent o0 the /asin #hile Ethiopia has only %2 pe!$ent and Egypt %0 pe!$ent. "he i'po!tan$e o0 the Nile, espe$ially 0o! Egypt and Sudan, $an not /e ove!stated. Ninety40ive pe!$ent o0 Egyptians live in the Nile 5alley and depend on the !ive! 0o! vi!tually all o0 thei! 0!esh #ate!. Egypt is not /eing ala!'ist #hen it says that Nile #ate! is a li0e o! death issue 0o! the $ount!y. Egypt is p!o/a/ly 'o!e dependent than any othe! $ount!y in the #o!ld on 0!esh#ate! that $o'es 0!o' outside its /o!de!s. But the Nile is also $!u$ial 0o! Sudan6 77 pe!$ent o0 Sudan8s 0!esh #ate! $o'es 0!o' outside its /o!de!s, 'ost o0 it via the Nile syste'. Ethiopia, on the othe! hand, /e$ause o0 its 'ountains that t!ap the 'oistu!e a!!iving /y #inds 0!o' the #est and south is the 'a9o! sou!$e o0 Nile #ate!. :0 the #ate! !ea$hing the ;s#an Da' in a no!'al yea!, 26 pe!$ent o!iginates in Ethiopia+3< pe!$ent via the Blue Nile6 %= pe!$ent via the Ba!o>;)o/o>So/at6 and %& pe!$ent via the "e)e-e>;t/a!a. "he ave!age annual 0lo# o0 the Nile at ;s#an 0!o' %270 to %<22 #as 22 /illion $u/i$ 'ete!s. "he late %<70s th!ough %<27 #e!e unusually lo# 0lo# yea!s, !esulting in deep $on$e!n, espe$ially in Egypt #he!e ?a)e Nasse! nea!ly disappea!ed. "his lo# 0lo# pe!iod $oin$ided #ith 0a'ine in Sudan and Ethiopia, #he!e an esti'ated 'illion pe!sons died. "he ave!age annual 0lo# 0!o' %<22 to 200% !e$ove!ed to 26 /illion $u/i$ 'ete!s. "he Nile 'oves 'u$h less #ate! than ;0!i$a8s othe! 'a9o! !ive! syste's su$h as the 1ongo, Nige!, @a'/e-i, and 5olta. ;t the sa'e ti'e, de'and 0o! #ate! in the Nile Basin is signi0i$antly highe! than ;0!i$a8s othe! !ive! /asins. ; $o'pa!ison #ith an ;'e!i$an !ive! 'a)es the point a/out 'odest #ate! volu'e in the Nile6 it p!odu$es only %= pe!$ent o0 the Aississippi8s annual dis$ha!ge. "!eaties and Bate! ;llo$ation :ve! the yea!s, Egypt, the ,nited .ingdo', and Sudan have dete!'ined Nile #ate! allo$ations. Egypt and the ,nited .ingdo' signed an ag!ee'ent in %<2< that gave Egypt =2 /illion $u/i$ 'ete!s o0 #ate! annually and Sudan = /illion $u/i$ 'ete!s. Collo#ing Sudanese independen$e, Egypt and Sudan !enegotiated the ag!ee'ent in %<3<.

2 Based on an annual 0lo# at ;s#an o0 2= /illion $u/i$ 'ete!s, the %<3< ag!ee'ent allo$ated 33.3 /illion $u/i$ 'ete!s Dth!ee4(ua!te!sE o0 the #ate! to Egypt and %2.3 /illion $u/i$ 'ete!s Done4(ua!te!E to Sudan. "he ag!ee'ent assu'ed that %0 /illion $u/i$ 'ete!s, the di00e!en$e /et#een the 2= /illion $u/i$ 'ete! in0lo# and the 7= /illion $u/i$ 'ete! allo$ation to Egypt and Sudan, #ould evapo!ate in ?a)e Nasse!. Based on an histo!i$al ave!age annual 0lo# o0 22 /illion $u/i$ 'ete!s into ?a)e Nasse!, the allo$ations to Egypt and Sudan le0t a s'all su!plus in an ave!age yea!. Egypt and Sudan ag!eed to sha!e e(ually any su!plus. "hese t!eaties !esulted in a vi!tual Egyptian and Sudanese 'onopoly o0 Nile #ate!. Egypt and Sudan did not invite Ethiopia to 9oin the negotiations no! did they $onsult #ith it. Ethiopia o00i$ially in0o!'ed Egypt and the othe! !ipa!ian states in %<36 and %<37 that it !ese!ved its !ight to use Nile #ate! 0o! the /ene0it o0 its people. Ethiopia also eFp!essed $on$e!n that Sudan and Egypt #e!e 'a)ing de$isions a/out #ate! that la!gely o!iginated in Ethiopia. "he %<3< ag!ee'ent la$)ed a p!ovision 0o! a'end'ent, du!ation, and a 'e$hanis' 0o! solving di00e!en$es. ;$$o!ding to so'e a$$ounts, even Sudan #as displeased #ith the allo$ation it !e$eived in the %<3< ag!ee'ent. ?egal !ights to #ate! in 'any !ive! /asins, in$luding the Nile, a!e politi$ally $ont!ove!sial, legally o/s$u!e, and e'otionally volatile. *n the $ase o0 the Nile, the!e is an inhe!ent in$o'pati/ility /et#een the Ge(uita/le sha!eH a!gu'ents o0 an upst!ea' !ipa!ian li)e Ethiopia and the Ghisto!i$ needs,H Gesta/lished !ights,H and Gno signi0i$ant ha!'H a!gu'ents o0 a do#nst!ea' !ipa!ian li)e Egypt. Sudan 0inds itsel0 in the 'iddle o0 this de/ate /e$ause it is a do#nst!ea' !ipa!ian o0 Ethiopia and an upst!ea' !ipa!ian o0 Egypt. "he %<3< t!eaty le0t a lega$y 0o! potential $on0li$t /et#een Egypt and Sudan, on one side, and Ethiopia and the seven othe! !ipa!ians, on the othe!. EFpe!ts #ho have analy-ed the %<<7 ,nited Nations Bate!$ou!ses 1onvention say it $an not !esolve the legal issues $on$e!ning allo$ation o0 Nile #ate!. National 5isions o0 Nile Bate! Bate! is not, o0 $ou!se, the only issue that /inds o! divides Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia. Histo!i$ally, it has /een a less i'po!tant 0a$to! in the t!iangula! !elationship than !eligion, ethni$ity, language, and the shee! (uest 0o! po#e! in all th!ee $ount!ies. But #ate! has al#ays /een an issue and, a!gua/ly, has /e$o'e the 'ost i'po!tant as !apidly eFpanding populations in the /asin d!a# in$!easingly on a 0inite supply. Be$ause Egypt has /een so dependent on the Nile th!oughout its histo!y, it tends to vie# Nile #ate! as its p!ope!ty. *t sees the allo$ation that it negotiated #ith Sudan as a ne$essa!y $on$ession o0 Egyptian #ate! in spite o0 the 0a$t that eve!y d!op !ea$hing Egypt 0lo#s th!ough Sudan. Egypt has a st!ong sense o0 unity $onst!u$ted a!ound the eFisten$e o0 the Nile. "his is 'u$h less t!ue 0o! Sudan and even less so 0o! Ethiopia. Both $ount!ies, espe$ially Ethiopia, have la!ge populations that live in a!eas /eyond Nile t!i/uta!ies. ;lthough the Blue Nile !esonates in Ethiopian histo!y, it does not play the sa'e $!u$ial !ole that the Nile does in Egypt. *n the $ase o0 Sudan, ;0!i$ans living in southe!n Sudan see the #ate! di00e!ently than ;!a/ no!the!ne!s. "he Nile 'a)es a 'a9o!

& $ont!i/ution to i!!igated ag!i$ultu!e in the no!th. *!!igation in the south has /een 'ini'al. But even in the no!th, the Nile is o0ten vie#ed as the !ive! that gives li0e to Egypt. :ne o0 the #o!ld8s leading eFpe!ts on Nile #ate!, John Bate!/u!y, su''ed up this $o'pleF !elationship in his se'inal %<7< Hydropolitics of the Nile Valley. 1ai!o and .ha!tou' sa# the #ea) lin) in Nile #ate! se$u!ity as southe!n Sudan and, se$onda!ily, Ethiopia. "hey 0ea!ed that i0 hostile 0o!$es eFploited un!est in Sudan, it $ould 9eopa!di-e the #ate! supply and th!eaten the !egi'es in 1ai!o and .ha!tou'. ;lthough su$h a develop'ent p!o/a/ly #ould not dis!upt the 0lo# o0 the Nile, Egypt and Sudan !ea$ted instin$tively to p!ote$t thei! inte!ests. Bate!/u!y $alled this the GCashoda 1o'pleFH #he!e/y the gove!n'ents in 1ai!o and .ha!tou' t!eated an unli)ely th!eat as a $!edi/le one. No# that a long $ivil #a! has $o'e to an end in southe!n Sudan and the!e is the possi/ility o0 an independent southe!n Sudan, .ha!tou' see's so'e#hat 'o!e !elaFed a/out any th!eat to Nile #ate! se$u!ity. Egypt $ontinues, ho#eve!, to p!e0e! a high deg!ee o0 $ont!ol ove! the Nile. *t !e'ains $on$e!ned a/out $!eation o0 an independent southe!n Sudan and a united Ethiopia $o''itted to g!eate! use o0 Nile #ate!. I!ospe$ts 0o! a Bate! Ba! "he!e is one s$hool o0 thought that a!gues the!e has neve! /een a 'a9o! $on0li$t ove! a$$ess to 0!esh #ate!. 1onse(uently, the!e is no !eason to get eFe!$ised a/out a possi/le #a! ove! #ate! in the Nile Basin. :the!s, this autho! in$luded, a!e not as su!e, pa!ti$ula!ly as populations in$!ease and the de'and 0o! #ate! eF$eeds supply. ?este! B!o#n, 0ounde! o0 Bo!ld#at$h *nstitute, a!gues that #ate! s$a!$ity is the Gsingle /iggest th!eat to glo/al 0ood se$u!ity,H adding the!e is little #ate! le0t #hen the Nile !ea$hes the Aedite!!anean. "he ;s#an Da' no# holds /a$) 'ost o0 the silt that on$e 0o!'ed the !i$h ag!i$ultu!al land in the Nile Delta, #hi$h is e!oding into the sea in so'e pla$es at a !ate o0 %00 'ete!s annually. *nte!national $on0li$t eFpe!t "ho'as Ho'e!4DiFon has suggested that $on0li$t is 'ost p!o/a/le #hen a do#nst!ea' !ipa!ian is highly dependent on !ive! #ate! and is 'ilita!ily and e$ono'i$ally st!ong in $o'pa!ison to upst!ea' !ipa!ians. "his is p!e$isely the $ase #ith Egypt. *t depends on the Nile and is 0a! st!onge! 'ilita!ily, politi$ally, and e$ono'i$ally than Sudan o! Ethiopia. Egyptian I!esident ;n#a! el4Sadat stated in %<20: G*0 Ethiopia ta)es any a$tion to /lo$) ou! !ight to the Nile #ate!s, the!e #ill /e no alte!native 0o! us /ut to use 0o!$e. "a'pe!ing #ith the !ights o0 a nation to #ate! is ta'pe!ing #ith its li0e and a de$ision to go to #a! on this s$o!e is indisputa/le in the inte!national $o''unity.H "he 0o!'e! Egyptian de0ense 'iniste! !eite!ated in %<<% Egypt8s !eadiness to use 0o!$e, i0 ne$essa!y, to p!ote$t its $ont!ol o0 the Nile. Ethiopia8s 'iniste! o0 #ate! !esou!$es announ$ed in %<<7 at a $on0e!en$e in ;ddis ;/a/a on the Nile Rive! Basin ;$tion Ilan that Gas a sou!$e and 'a9o! $ont!i/ution o0 the Nile #ate!s, Ethiopia has the !ight to have an e(uita/le sha!e o0 the Nile #ate!s and !ese!ves its !ights to 'a)e use o0 its #ate!s.H Ethiopia8s 0o!eign 'iniste! stated in %<<2 that Gthe!e is no ea!thly 0o!$e that $an stop Ethiopia 0!o' /ene0iting 0!o' the Nile.H "he Egyptian i!!igation 'iniste! announ$ed in 200= in advan$e o0 a 'eeting #ith othe! !ipa!ians that the tal)s 'ust not Gtou$h Egypt8s

= histo!i$al !ightsH to Nile #ate!. Rathe!, !ipa!ian states should 0o$us on #ays to !e$ove! #ate! that is /eing #asted. Ethiopian I!i'e Ainiste! Aeles @ena#i #a!ned in 2003 that Gi0 Egypt #e!e to plan to stop Ethiopia 0!o' utili-ing the Nile #ate! it #ould have to o$$upy Ethiopia and no $ount!y on ea!th has done that in the past.H D*taly, o0 $ou!se, did 9ust that 0!o' %<&64 =%. Egypt is in no position today, ho#eve!, to o$$upy Ethiopia although it $ould in0li$t $onside!a/le da'age /y ai!.E "he $u!!ent Egyptian 0o!eign 'iniste!, in !esponse to de'ands /y upst!ea' !ipa!ians to !evie# the Nile t!eaties, $o''ented in 2003 that Egypt #ill not give up its sha!e o0 Nile #ate!. Co!'e! Egyptian Co!eign Ainiste! and ,N Se$!eta!y ene!al Bout!os Bout!os hali told the BB1 in 2003 that 'ilita!y $on0!ontation /et#een the $ount!ies o0 the Nile Basin #as al'ost inevita/le unless they $ould ag!ee to sha!e #ate! e(uita/ly. He $on$luded that Gthe neFt #a! a'ong $ount!ies #ill not /e 0o! oil o! te!!ito!ial /o!de!s, /ut only 0o! the p!o/le' o0 #ate!.H *t should /e e'inently possi/le to avoid #a! ove! #ate! in the Nile Basin. But to suggest that it #ill not happen 9ust /e$ause the!e has not /een a #a! ove! a$$ess to 0!esh #ate! in the past is not pe!suasive. "his is an issue that #ill !e(ui!e $a!e0ul attention /y the $on$e!ned pa!ties and the inte!national $o''unity to ensu!e that $on0li$t does not /!ea) out. 1o'pa!ing Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia DSou!$e: Bo!ld Develop'ent *ndi$ato!s 2006 – "he Bo!ld Ban)E Egypt Iopulation 'illions 200= Iopulation 'illions p!o9e$ted 2020 Iopulation annual g!o#th !ate J ave!age %<<04200= Iopulation annual g!o#th !ate J ave!age p!o9e$ted 200=42020 ?i0e eFpe$tan$y at /i!th 200= Net 'ig!ation in thousands %<<342000 !oss national in$o'e 200= K/illions !oss national in$o'e pe! $apita 200= K !oss do'esti$ p!odu$t 200= K'illions 72.6 <=.2 %.< %.7 70 4300 <0.6 %,230 72,200 Sudan &3.3 =7.3 2.2 %.2 37 4207 %2.7 3&0 2%,%00 Ethiopia 70.0 %07.7 2.2 2.7 =2 477 7.6 %%0 2,000

3 !oss do'esti$ p!odu$t 200040= J ave!age annual g!o#th

&.= Egypt

6.0 Sudan &< 2.2 60 && 36.= %%.0 &.= &=.7 2%

&.6 Ethiopia =7 =.& 77 22 &%.& 2.6 2.& <<.& 22

DI J de!ived 0!o' ag!i$ultu!e 200= Ailita!y eFpenditu!es as J DI 200= I!i'a!y s$hool en!oll'ent 200= J !elevant age g!oup Se$onda!y s$hool en!oll'ent 200= J !elevant age g!oup ;g!i$ultu!al land as J land a!ea 200%40& *!!igated land as J $!opland 200%4200& Ele$t!i$ity p!odu$tion /illion )ilo#att hou!s 200& Ie!$ent o0 total ele$t!i$ity p!odu$tion p!ovided /y hyd!opo#e! 200& Ele$t!i$ po#e! $onsu'ption pe! $apita )Bh 200&

%3 2.2 %00 27 &.= %00 <%.< %=.% %,%27

So'e sou!$es al!eady sho# Ethiopia as having su!passed Egypt as the se$ond 'ost populous $ount!y in ;0!i$a a0te! Nige!ia. *n any event, population p!o9e$tions 0o! 2020 indi$ate Ethiopia #ill /e su/stantially highe! than Egypt. Egypt pe!0o!'s 'u$h /ette! than Ethiopia on vi!tually all so$ial and e$ono'i$ indi$ato!s. Sudan gene!ally does /ette! than Ethiopia. Egypt is 0a! ahead o0 Sudan and Ethiopia on pe!$ent o0 $!opland that is i!!igated and the a'ount o0 po#e! that it p!odu$es, although gas is the /asis 0o! 'ost o0 its ele$t!i$ity. ;ll th!ee $ount!ies devote a 0ai!ly 'odest pe!$ent o0 thei! DI to 'ilita!y eFpenditu!es, /ut these 0igu!es p!esu'a/ly do not in$lude g!ant 'ilita!y aid. Both Sudan and Ethiopia have /attle4tested a!'ies that $o'pa!e #ell #ith the !est o0 su/4 Saha!an ;0!i$a. "hey a!e not the e(ual, ho#eve!, o0 Egyptian 0o!$es. Egypt4Sudan Relations :ne o0 the leading eFpe!ts on Egypt and Sudan, a/!iel Ba!/u!g, a!gues the!e is no natu!al /o!de! /et#een the t#o $ount!ies. Egyptian and Sudanese Nu/ians have 'o!e in $o''on #ith ea$h othe! than Egyptians in 1ai!o have #ith Egyptians o0 ,ppe! Egypt o! the !esidents o0 .ha!tou' have #ith the Be9a t!i/es in the Red Sea hills, the Cu! in Da!0u!, the Nu/as in the Nu/a Aountains, o! the southe!n t!i/es in Bah! al4 ha-al and

6 E(uato!ia. "his has not p!evented, ho#eve!, Egyptian nationalists o0 all st!ipes 0!o' insisting that a united Nile 5alley that in$ludes Sudan is essential and 9usti0ied. "he!e #as $onta$t /et#een Egypt and Sudan as ea!ly as the 2th 'illenniu' B1. Aode!n !elations /egan #hen an Egyptian a!'y unde! :tto'an $ont!ol invaded Sudan in %220. Egyptian !ule ended in %223 /ut !etu!ned in the 0o!' o0 the ;nglo4Egyptian $ondo'iniu' 0!o' %2<<4%<33. Even a0te! Sudan8s independen$e in %<36, Egypt #o!)ed ha!d to eFe!t in0luen$e ove! develop'ents in its southe!n neigh/o!. "his one4sided !elationship /et#een Egypt and Sudan le0t psy$hologi$al s$a!s on no!the!n Sudanese. *n the 'inds o0 'ost Sudanese, Egypt $ontinues to thin) o0 Sudan as pa!t o0 its /a$)ya!d. Nothing g!ates 'o!e on no!the!n Sudanese than the $lai' /y Egyptians that they Gunde!standH Sudan /ette! than anyone else. "he 0a$t that the Nile 0lo#s th!ough Sudan e'phasi-es the i'po!tan$e o0 and $o'pli$ates the /ilate!al !elationship. ;lthough Egypt and Sudan ag!eed in %<3< on an allo$ation o0 Nile #ate!, Sudan !e'ains uneasy a/out the out$o'e o0 the ag!ee'ent. So'e in Sudan /elieve that the 73 pe!$ent to 23 pe!$ent division o0 #ate! #as inhe!ently un0ai! #hile othe!s a!e $on$e!ned that eF$lusion o0 the eight othe! !ipa!ians 0!o' the ag!ee'ent has 'ade 'o!e di00i$ult Sudan8s !elations #ith those !ipa!ians. "he 7<04'ile long Egyptian4Sudanese /o!de! $ontains a disputed a!ea )no#n as the Halai/ "!iangle that /o!de!s the Red Sea. Both $ount!ies $lai' o#ne!ship. 1ai!o a!gues that the /o!de! !uns along the 22nd pa!allel a$$o!ding to the %2<< ;nglo4Egyptian "!eaty. .ha!tou' insists that a'end'ents to the t!eaty in %<02 and %<07 $!eated an ad'inist!ative /o!de! 0u!the! no!th along a t!iangula! -one nea! the Red Sea. ;0te! Sudanese politi$ians a!!ived to $a'paign in the t!iangle in %<32, I!esident Nasse! issued an ulti'atu' de'anding the #ithd!a#al o0 Sudanese ad'inist!ato!s and poli$e 0!o' Halai/. :ne eFplanation 0o! the %<32 in$ident suggests that it #as intended to de'onst!ate Egypt8s desi!e to do'inate Sudan. Bhen /ilate!al tal)s to end the dispute 0ailed, Sudan petitioned the ,nited Nations 0o! a spe$ial session o0 the Se$u!ity 1oun$il. Egypt then a/andoned its $a'paign to a/so!/ the Halai/. Sin$e Sudanese independen$e, !elations /et#een the t#o $ount!ies have had thei! ups and do#ns. Sudanese I!esident Bashi! $o'plained in ;p!il %<<3 that !elations #ith Egypt had /e$o'e st!ained /e$ause 1ai!o had !eo$$upied the Halai/ "!iangle and allegedly #as suppo!ting Sudanese opposition 0o!$es. Relations !ea$hed a nadi! in June %<<3 #hen Egypt and Ethiopia $ha!ged autho!ities in Sudan #ith $o'pli$ity in a plot /y an Egyptian te!!o!ist o!gani-ation to assassinate I!esident Au/a!a) as he a!!ived in ;ddis ;/a/a 0o! an :!gani-ation o0 ;0!i$an ,nity 'eeting. ; deadly $on0!ontation then 0ollo#ed in the Halai/ "!iangle. I!esident Bashi! a$$used Egypt o0 $onspi!ing to ove!th!o# Sudan8s gove!n'ent. I!esident Au/a!a) denied the $ha!ge /ut insisted Egypt #as $apa/le o0 ove!th!o#ing the Bashi! !egi'e Gin ten days.H Au/a!a) added: GBe a!e not /eing as)ed to inte!vene 'ilita!ily /e$ause that #ould lead to deaths a'ong the Sudanese, so'ething #e don8t #ant /e$ause #e thin) o0 Sudanese li)e Egyptians.H "hat state'ent says a g!eat deal a/out the #ay Egyptian leade!s thin) o0 Sudanese.

7 By the end o0 %<<<, Egyptian ange! had su/sided and I!esident Bashi! visited Egypt #he!e the t#o leade!s ag!eed to no!'ali-e diplo'ati$ !elations. Bashi! !etu!ned to 1ai!o in 2002 #hen they st!essed thei! /!othe!ly ties and put in 'otion a$tions to eFpand $oope!ation on a va!iety o0 p!a$ti$al issues, in$luding in$!eased t!ade. *n the 'eanti'e, Egypt $ont!ols the Halai/ "!iangle although the dispute has /een do!'ant sin$e %<<3. Egypt has /een gene!ally suppo!tive o0 I!esident Bashi!8s poli$ies in !e$ent yea!s. Du!ing a visit to .ha!tou' in ;p!il 2006, Au/a!a) /a$)ed Sudan8s p!e0e!en$e to deal #ith the $!isis in Da!0u! in an ;0!i$an and ;!a/ 0!a'e#o!). He des$!i/ed Egyptian4 Sudanese ties as Gpe!'anent !elations #ith 9oint 0ates.H C!o' a hyd!ologi$al and histo!i$al pe!spe$tive, Da!0u! is not pa!t o0 the Nile Basin6 it is pa!t o0 Sudani$ ;0!i$a. 1onse(uently, it is only !elevant to this analysis to the eFtent that it i'pa$ts !elations #ith Egypt and Ethiopia. Ea!lie! in the yea!, Egypt also /a$)ed Bashi!8s $ont!ove!sial $hai!'anship o0 the 2006 ;0!i$an ,nion su''it. ; p!in$ipal the'e in its !elationship #ith Sudan is the $ontinued unity o0 the Sudanese state. Egypt does not #ant an independent southe!n Sudan and, hen$e, anothe! $ount!y to 9oin dis$ussions on the 0utu!e o0 Nile #ate!. "he 2002 Aa$ha)os I!oto$ol, #hi$h esta/lished the !ight o0 sel04dete!'ination 0o! the people o0 southe!n Sudan, ange!ed Egypt. Egypt and ?i/ya had put 0o!#a!d a $o'peting pea$e p!oposal /ased on the unity o0 Sudan. "he Egyptian 0o!eign 'iniste! stated du!ing a visit to .ha!tou' in Janua!y 200& that Egypt loo)ed 0o!#a!d to $oope!ation that p!ese!ved Sudanese unity and te!!ito!ial integ!ity. Egypt $hanged its app!oa$h on$e the 1o'p!ehensive Iea$e ;g!ee'ent D1I;E /et#een the southe!ne!s and .ha!tou' /e$a'e a !eality. Egypt has !ea$hed out to southe!ne!s /y esta/lishing a $onsulate in Ju/a and said that it #ill spa!e no e00o!t to help develop the south. *t has ag!eed to p!ovide t#o po#e! plants 0o! lighting the $ities o0 Bau and Ju/a and plans to open a /!an$h o0 the ,nive!sity o0 ;leFand!ia in Ju/a. Egypt also intends to esta/lish &0 gene!al and te$hni$al se$onda!y s$hools in southe!n Sudan. "his is s'a!t Egyptian poli$y. *t gives Egypt a plat0o!' to 'onito! develop'ents in southe!n Sudan and, i0 ne$essa!y, to in0luen$e the' in a di!e$tion o0 its $hoi$e. Bhen as)ed in Aa!$h 2006 a/out the possi/ility southe!ne!s #ill opt 0o! independen$e, I!esident Au/a!a) !eplied that Egypt loo)s 0o!#a!d to a pea$e0ul, sta/le, and united Sudan. He e'phasi-ed it is i'pe!ative du!ing the t!ansitional pe!iod Gto /uild $onsensus in suppo!t o0 unity and a#ay 0!o' se$ession.H *0 it /e$o'es appa!ent, ho#eve!, that southe!n Sudanese #ill vote 0o! independen$e, it is highly unli)ely Egypt #ill stand /y idly. Sudan8s $ivil #a! in the south and its 'o!e !e$ent p!o/le's in Da!0u! have de$!eased its a/ility to pu!sue 'o!e a$tivist poli$ies vis4L4vis Egypt ove! Nile #ate! and othe! issues. "he end o0 the #a! in the south potentially poses t#o ne# $hallenges 0o! Egypt8s Nile poli$ies. *t 'ay have to $ontend #ith an independent southe!n Sudan and the!e is one less $!isis to dist!a$t .ha!tou'. "he Jonglei 1anal

2 "he Jonglei 1anal, /e$ause o0 its i'pa$t on Nile #ate! and the 0a$t that it #as la!gely an Egyptian inspi!ation, dese!ves a spe$ial $o''ent. :ne o0 the 'ost $ont!ove!sial p!o9e$ts eve! $onte'plated 0o! the Nile Basin, it #as intended to 'ove a su/stantial a'ount o0 Bhite Nile #ate! a!ound the #o!ld8s la!gest 0!esh#ate! s#a'p+ the Sudd+in southe!n Sudan. :n ave!age, && /illion $u/i$ 'ete!s o0 #ate! ente! the Sudd annually. ;0te! evapo!ation, only %6 /illion $u/i$ 'ete!s leave. By !edu$ing evapo!ation loss in the Sudd, the 22=4'ile long $anal #ould 'a)e availa/le al'ost 0ive /illion $u/i$ 'ete!s o0 #ate!, divided a/out e(ually /et#een Sudan and Egypt. ,sing the #o!ld8s la!gest /u$)et #heel, $anal eF$avation that /egan at the no!th end !ea$hed 'ile %66 in %<2= #hen the Sudan Ieople8s ?i/e!ation ;!'y DSI?;E atta$)ed the p!o9e$t head(ua!te!s. "his stopped #o!) a0te! 70 pe!$ent o0 the $anal had /een dug. "he /u$)et #heel $ontinues to !ust in pla$e. Resu'ing the p!o9e$t #as not pa!t o0 the dis$ussions du!ing the pea$e negotiations /et#een .ha!tou' and the SI?;. "he!e #e!e enough $ont!ove!sial issues to !esolve6 neithe! side appa!ently #anted to add the Jonglei 1anal to the 'iF. Aost southe!n Sudanese /elieve the p!o9e$t #as only intended to /ene0it no!the!n Sudan and Egypt. *t is in$on$eiva/le that eF$avation o0 the $anal $ould !esu'e #ithout the eFpli$it app!oval o0 the ne# southe!n gove!n'ent. Du!ing an inte!vie# in .ha!tou' #ith the Sudan Ne#s ;gen$y in Aa!$h 2006, I!esident Au/a!a) $o''ented it 'ight /e possi/le to !esu'e #o!) on the Jonglei 1anal no# that the #a! had $o'e to an end. ; /!ie0 p!ess !epo!t 0!o' 1ai!o in Aay 2006 noted that the Sup!e'e 1o''ittee 0o! Nile Bate! $hai!ed /y the p!i'e 'iniste! held a 'eeting on Egypt8s !elations #ith the Nile Basin $ount!ies. ;ttendees in$luded the 'iniste!s o0 de0ense, 0o!eign a00ai!s, i!!igation, inte!national $oope!ation, and the $hie0 o0 intelligen$e. Du!ing the 'eeting, Ainiste! o0 *!!igation and Bate! Resou!$es Aah'oud ;/u @eid suggested the possi/ility o0 !esu'ing #o!) on the Jonglei 1anal in $oope!ation #ith Sudan. "he p!ess !epo!t gave no indi$ation as to the $o''ittee8s !ea$tion. ;/u @eid told the Co!eign I!ess ;sso$iation in 1ai!o in June 2006 that the signing o0 the 1I; in Sudan 'a)es it possi/le 0o! #o!) to !esu'e on the Jonglei. He said Egypt is #illing to $ont!i/ute hal0 the $osts to#a!ds 0inishing the p!o9e$t. *t is no $oin$iden$e that this long do!'ant issue is /eginning to !esu!0a$e in Egyptian dis$ussions. Egypt4Ethiopia Relations Egypt and Ethiopia do not sha!e a $o''on /o!de! no! do they have a g!eat deal in $o''on. "he!e is a long and i'po!tant lin) /et#een the 'ino!ity Egyptian 1opti$ 1hu!$h and the Ethiopian :!thodoF 1hu!$h. :ve!land t!ade th!ough Sudan #as pe!iodi$ally signi0i$ant dating /a$) to Ethiopia8s ;Fu'ite .ingdo'. :nly !e$ently have the!e /een se!ious e00o!ts to !evive t!ade /et#een the t#o $ount!ies. Egypt 0ailed in its atte'pt to invade Ethiopia in %273. "he !easons 0o! the invasion #e!e i'pe!ial eFpansion and a desi!e to !aise !evenue. ;lthough Egypt unde!stood that so'e o0 the Nile #ate! $a'e 0!o' Ethiopia, this #as not #hat 'otivated the Egyptian atta$). :n$e it /e$a'e $lea!, ho#eve!, that 26 pe!$ent o0 the Nile #ate! !ea$hing Egypt o!iginated in Ethiopia, this /e$a'e and !e'ains the ove!!iding issue in the !elationship.

< :ve! the last 30 yea!s, espe$ially in the p!e4Au/a!a) pe!iod, Egypt8s ties #ith Ethiopia have /een 'a!!ed /y di00e!en$es and 'isunde!standings. Bhen Ethiopia #as 'aneuve!ing in the late %<30s and ea!ly %<60s to !ein$o!po!ate E!it!ea as an integ!al pa!t o0 its e'pi!e, Egypt opened nea! ;leFand!ia in %<32 a s'all 'ilita!y t!aining $a'p 0o! E!it!eans opposed to Ethiopian !ule. Egypt also pe!'itted E!it!ean !e/els to use Radio 1ai!o in an e00o!t to unde!'ine the Haile Selassie gove!n'ent. Egypt allo#ed the p!edo'inantly Ausli' E!it!ean ?i/e!ation C!ont DE?CE to esta/lish an o00i$e in 1ai!o. Bith Egyptian suppo!t, the ;!a/ ?eague in %<62 eFtended $o'plete solida!ity to the E?C. "hese events o$$u!!ed at a ti'e #hen Egypt #as inte!ested in unde!'ining Haile Selassie8s p!o4;'e!i$an and p!o4*s!aeli gove!n'ent. But Egypt also sa# this poli$y as use0ul in dive!ting Ethiopia8s attention a#ay 0!o' e00o!ts to develop Nile #ate! p!o9e$ts. Egypt has a long histo!y o0 involve'ent in Ausli' So'alia, #hi$h is also a 'e'/e! o0 the ;!a/ ?eague /ut is not an ;!a/ $ount!y. Du!ing spo!adi$ $on0li$t /et#een Ethiopia and So'alia in the %<60s and %<70s, Egypt sided #ith So'alia. Egypt p!ovided 'ilita!y t!aining and #eapons to So'alia. *n %<72, 0o! eFa'ple, Egypt !epo!tedly gave 'illions o0 dolla!s #o!th o0 Russian 'ilita!y e(uip'ent to So'alia. "his o$$u!!ed du!ing the Soviet4suppo!ted Aengistu !egi'e in Ethiopia6 a $ouple o0 yea!s late! the ,.S. also p!ovided 'ilita!y e(uip'ent to So'alia. 1ai!o8s goal #as to )eep p!essu!e on Ethiopia so that it #ould /e less a/le to oppose Egypt on Nile #ate! and othe! issues. "his lega$y has not /een lost on $u!!ent Ethiopian leade!s. Sin$e the 'id4%<<0s, Egypt8s poli$y to#a!ds Ethiopia has /e$o'e 'o!e nuan$ed. "he!e has /een a $on$e!ted e00o!t to i'p!ove !elations. "hese positive Egyptian initiatives $ontinue, ho#eve!, to /e set/a$) /y o$$asional di00e!en$es on !egional develop'ents, a /asi$ disag!ee'ent ove! allo$ation o0 Nile #ate!, and Ethiopian suspi$ion that eventually Egypt #ill !eve!t to out!ight hostility. *n the late %<<0s, 0o! eFa'ple, the t#o $ount!ies pu!sued $o'peting p!og!a's to /!ing pea$e to So'alia. "he!e #as also $on$e!n in Ethiopia that Egypt sy'pathi-ed #ith E!it!ea a0te! the /o!de! #a! /!o)e out in %<<2. :n the othe! hand, Egypt8s a'/assado! to Ethiopia stated in %<<2 that GEgypt is !eady to $oope!ate #ith Ethiopia in eFploiting its huge hyd!o4ele$t!i$ potentials, and did not o/9e$t to the $onst!u$tion o0 s'all s$ale #ate! da's.H *n !e$ent yea!s, Egypt has engaged in so'ething o0 a $ha!' o00ensive in Ethiopia. *t p!ovides 'odest assistan$e in the a!eas o0 health, the 9udi$ia!y, poli$e, $!i'e p!evention, s$hola!ships, and t!aining in the 0ields o0 nu!sing, ele$t!i$ po#e!, and $attle /!eeding. Ethiopian I!i'e Ainiste! Aeles du!ing a visit to 1ai!o in 2003 eFp!essed satis0a$tion #ith $oope!ation in the Nile Basin *nitiative and the develop'ent o0 /ilate!al !elations /et#een the t#o $ount!ies. Aeles noted that Egypt had signed an ag!ee'ent to pu!$hase K200 'illion #o!th o0 'eat 0!o' Ethiopia ove! 0ive yea!s. Au/a!a)8s spo)es'an st!essed that Egypt #anted to see an end to the Ethiopian4E!it!ean $on0li$t. Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan 0o!'ed th!ee su/$o''ittees in 2003 in i'p!ove $oope!ation in politi$s and diplo'a$y, t!ade and the e$ono'y, and se$u!ity. ; !e$onst!u$tion p!og!a' in southe!n Sudan is pa!t o0 this t!ipa!tite dis$ussion. Egyptian eFpe!ts a!e helping Ethiopia d!a# up enginee!ing designs 0o! a nu'/e! o0 hyd!opo#e! da's on a !ive! outside the Nile Basin. Dis$ussions a!e also unde!#ay a'ong Egypt, Ethiopia, and

%0 Sudan $on$e!ning a p!o9e$t to gene!ate ele$t!i$ity in the Ethiopian highlands 0o! thei! 'utual /ene0it. "his !e$ent $oope!ation has not eli'inated Ethiopia8s $on$e!ns ove! Egypt8s Nile #ate! poli$ies and thei! i'pa$t on !elations #ith ;ddis ;/a/a. Egypt has not only 'ade $lea! that its #ate! allo$ation in the %<3< t!eaty is inviola/le, /ut that it needs 'o!e #ate!. *t #ants this additional #ate! to $o'e 0!o' upst!ea' p!o9e$ts su$h as the Jonglei 1anal in Sudan and i'p!oved #ate! 'anage'ent p!a$ti$es in Ethiopia. Egypt points out that /ette! te!!a$ing in Ethiopia8s highlands #ill allo# 'o!e #ate! to !ea$h Egypt. "his #ill !edu$e the a'ount o0 silt that a$$o'panies the #ate! and eventually settles /ehind da's in Sudan and the ;s#an Da' in Egypt. Egypt8s Bate! Resou!$es and *!!igation Ainiste! Aah'oud ;/u @eid $o''ented in 2006 that the Ba!o4;)o/o p!o9e$t, a net#o!) o0 da's and $anals in south#este!n Ethiopia, #ould add %2 /illion $u/i$ 'ete!s annually to the Nile. ;lthough i'p!oved $onse!vation and #ate! !esou!$es 'anage'ent in upst!ea' $ount!ies #ould /e a positive $ont!i/ution, Ethiopia loo)s at 'assive ne# Egyptian #ate! p!o9e$ts o0 du/ious envi!on'ental (uality and 'ust #onde! i0 this is a one #ay poli$y. Egypt /egan in %<76 the No!the!n Sinai i!!igation p!o9e$t that in$ludes $onst!u$tion o0 the Salaa' 1anal unde! the Sue- 1anal. Eventually the p!o9e$t #ill use an additional =.= /illion $u/i$ 'ete!s o0 #ate! to !esettle 'o!e than t#o 'illion Egyptian 0a'ilies. ;t one point, Egypt suggested that it 'ight even sell Nile #ate! to *s!ael, #hi$h is outside the Nile Basin. Ethiopia p!otested this p!o9e$t and espe$ially the idea o0 selling Nile #ate! outside the /asin. *n %<<7 I!esident Au/a!a) inaugu!ated an even la!ge! Nile p!o9e$t. Bhen $o'pleted in 20%7 the Ne# 5alley I!o9e$t #ill dive!t anothe! 0ive /illion $u/i$ 'ete!s o0 #ate! annually 0!o' ?a)e Nasse! /y $anals to Egypt8s south#este!n dese!t. "he goal is to $ultivate a hal0 'illion a$!es and !esettle seven 'illion Egyptians. *t is not $lea! that these s$he'es a!e i'ple'enting sound #ate! $onse!vation p!in$iples. Egypt a!gues that its g!o#ing population and u!/an une'ploy'ent !e(ui!e these ne# p!o9e$ts. Ethiopia !esponds that its population is as la!ge as Egypt8s and g!o#ing even 0aste!. ,ne'ploy'ent is also a se!ious p!o/le'. *n addition, Ethiopia is eFpe!ien$ing in$!easingly 0!e(uent and la!ge! sho!t0alls o0 0ood p!odu$tion that lead to eve! g!o#ing 0ood i'po!ts. *t sees the ne# Egyptian p!o9e$ts as tu!ning the dese!t into $ente!s o0 ag!i$ultu!al p!odu$tion at its eFpense. I!i'e Ainiste! Aeles pointed out ea!ly in 2003 that #hile Egypt is t!ans0o!'ing the Saha!a Dese!t, Ethiopia is denied the possi/ility o0 using Nile #ate! to 0eed itsel0. He eFp!essed ange! at Egypt8s o/9e$tions to !e(uests 0!o' othe! !ipa!ians to use Nile #ate! 0o! 'a9o! i!!igation p!o9e$ts. He #ent on to $ite Egypt8s long4te!' opposition to any inte!national 0unding 0o! la!ge s$ale Ethiopian i!!igation p!og!a's. Ethiopia has a/out 2.& 'illion he$ta!es o0 i!!iga/le land in its po!tion o0 the Nile Basin. ?ess than one pe!$ent has /een developed. Egypt is 'u$h 'o!e unde!standing a/out the develop'ent o0 hyd!opo#e! in Ethiopia. EF$ept 0o! evapo!ation in the !ese!voi! /ehind hyd!opo#e! da's, they only p!event #ate! 0!o' !ea$hing Egypt on a one4ti'e /asis. Ethiopia has the potential to p!odu$e an esti'ated %62,000 giga#att hou!s D BhE o0 ele$t!i$ity pe! yea! on its Nile

%% t!i/uta!ies. By $o'pa!ison, 1ali0o!nia gene!ated a total o0 272,000 Bh in 2002. Ethiopia has ha!nessed only t#o pe!$ent o0 this potential. Ethiopia is no# $onst!u$ting on the "e)e-e Rive! its la!gest eve! hyd!opo#e! da'. Egypt has not o/9e$ted. *n addition to o/taining ele$t!i$ity p!odu$ed in Ethiopia, Egypt $ould /ene0it 0!o' #ate! sto!age p!o9e$ts in the Ethiopian highlands #he!e the evapo!ation !ate is a/out th!ee pe!$ent as $o'pa!ed to %2 pe!$ent in ?a)e Nasse!. Sudan4Ethiopia Relations Ethiopia sha!es Sudan8s longest /o!de!, nea!ly %,000 'iles. "he!e has /een a long histo!y o0 $on0li$t Dand o$$asional $oope!ationE along this 0!ontie!. "he!e #e!e pe!iodi$ /attles /et#een the Cun9 .ingdo' in Sudan and Ethiopian e'pe!o!s du!ing the %7th and %2th $entu!ies. Du!ing Egyptian>:tto'an !ule in Sudan in the %<th $entu!y, the!e #e!e a nu'/e! o0 /o!de! $lashes as the Egyptians t!ied to eFtend thei! autho!ity into Ethiopia. Collo#ing the !ise nea! the end o0 the %<th $entu!y o0 Aahdist po#e! in Sudan, the t#o $ount!ies ha!/o!ed the othe!8s !e/els, a p!a$ti$e #hi$h has $ontinued. Aahdist 0o!$es penet!ated as 0a! as onda! in %222. Sudan then 0ell unde! the $ont!ol o0 an ;nglo4Egyptian 1ondo'iniu' in %2<<. Ethiopian negotiations #ith the B!itish !esulted in a %<02 t!eaty that esta/lished 0o! the 0i!st ti'e a /o!de! /et#een Sudan and Ethiopia. "he ag!ee'ent eFpanded Ethiopia8s 9u!isdi$tion in the di!e$tion o0 the Nile 5alley, although not nea!ly as 0a! as E'pe!o! Aeneli) had ea!lie! de'anded. "he pe!iod 0!o' %<02 until the *talian invasion o0 Ethiopia in %<&6 !e0le$ted intense e00o!ts /y Ethiopia and Sudan, #ith !eat B!itain a$ting on /ehal0 o0 Sudan, to esta/lish g!eate! in0luen$e in the /o!de! !egion. Du!ing its /!ie0 o$$upation, *taly t!ied #ithout su$$ess to eFtend Ethiopia8s #este!n /ounda!y into Sudan. Sudanese t!oops played a p!o'inent !ole in the li/e!ation o0 Ethiopia 0!o' *taly #hen they a$$o'panied Haile Selassie and B!itish 0o!$es on the 'a!$h to ;ddis ;/a/a. ;lthough *taly ended slave!y in the /o!de! a!ea, its 'ilita!y de0eat in %<=% did not !esolve a host o0 0!ontie! p!o/le's /et#een Ethiopia and Sudan. C!o' Sudanese independen$e in %<36 until Ethiopia8s %<7= !evolution, !elations /et#een the t#o $ount!ies 0lu$tuated d!a'ati$ally /et#een $on0li$t and $oope!ation. Deep suspi$ion o0 the othe! side p!evailed in .ha!tou' and ;ddis ;/a/a. C!o' %<7= until Sudan8s %<2< $oup, !elations /et#een Sudan and Ethiopia #e!e gene!ally poo!. Sudan suppo!ted E!it!ean and late! "ig!ayan !e/els t!ying to topple Aengistu #hile Ethiopia eventually /a$)ed the SI?; !e/ellion in southe!n Sudan. Collo#ing its 'ilita!y $oup in %<2<, Sudan initially t!ied to i'p!ove !elations #ith Ethiopia. ;lthough this e00o!t 0ailed, the ove!th!o# o0 Aengistu in Ethiopia in %<<% did !esult in a no!'ali-ation o0 !elations /et#een the t#o $ount!ies. "his lasted only a 0e# yea!s until *sla'i$ 0unda'entalist ele'ents in the Sudanese gove!n'ent t!ied to eFpand thei! theology in the !egion, in$luding Ethiopia. Sudan /egan to suppo!t Ethiopian dissident g!oups and Ethiopia !esponded /y !esu'ing suppo!t 0o! the SI?;. By %<<3, Sudan a$$used Ethiopian t!oops o0 9oining the SI?; in atta$)s on Sudanese /o!de! villages. Relations !ea$hed a nadi! 0ollo#ing the atte'pt in %<<3 to assassinate Au/a!a) in ;ddis ;/a/a. Ethiopia $ha!ged Sudan #ith $o'pli$ity and then /e$a'e pa!t, togethe!

%2 #ith ,ganda and E!it!ea, o0 ,.S. poli$y to p!essu!e Sudan. Ioo! !elations /et#een Sudan and Ethiopia $ontinued until the out/!ea) o0 $on0li$t /et#een E!it!ea and Ethiopia in Aay %<<2. *n the 0ollo#ing 'onths, Ethiopia $on$luded that it #as i'po!tant to no!'ali-e !elations #ith Sudan so that it $ould 0o$us on it ne# ene'y+E!it!ea. Ethiopia signi0i$antly s$aled /a$) assistan$e to the SI?;. "he t#o $ount!ies !esto!ed !egula! e$ono'i$ !elations and Bashi! 'ade a 0en$e 'ending visit to ;ddis ;/a/a in Nove'/e! %<<<. Ethiopia 9oined Sudan and Me'en at the /eginning o0 200& in a ne# !egional g!oup to $o'/at te!!o!is' in the Ho!n o0 ;0!i$a. ;ll th!ee $ount!ies had p!o/le's #ith E!it!ea at the ti'e6 opposition to E!it!ea #as the 'o!e logi$al eFplanation 0o! the allian$e. Collo#ing the $losu!e o0 Ethiopia8s /o!de! #ith E!it!ea, ;ddis ;/a/a loo)ed in$!easingly to alte!native !outes to the sea, in$luding Io!t Sudan. "he t#o $ount!ies stepped up $oope!ation along the no!the!n pa!t o0 the /o!de! and Sudan /egan to sell oil to Ethiopia. "he!e has /een nota/le i'p!ove'ent in $o''uni$ations lin)s /et#een Sudan and Ethiopia. "hey /egan laying a 0i/e! opti$ telephone line in 2003 /et#een onda! and alla/at and in 2006 initiated a study to lin) the ene!gy and ele$t!i$ po#e! se$to!s o0 the t#o $ount!ies. I!i'e Ainiste! Aeles also eFp!essed 0ull Ethiopian suppo!t 0o! the 1I; in Sudan. Just #hen all #as going #ell /et#een Sudan and Ethiopia, a 0e# old p!o/le's !etu!ned to the 0o!e. ;n o!gani-ation in Sudan $o'plained ea!ly in 2006 that Ethiopian 0a!'e!s #e!e $ultivating land inside Sudan nea! eda!e0. "he eda!e0 State legislatu!e $alled on the Sudan gove!n'ent to stop this a$tivity. ;nothe! old p!o/le' involving $attle !aiding and ethni$ $on0li$t /et#een ;nua) and Nue! !etu!ned along the southe!n /o!de!. *n the 'eanti'e, E!it!ea laun$hed an all out e00o!t to i'p!ove its !elations #ith Sudan. E!it!ea sponso!ed pea$e tal)s /et#een .ha!tou' and !e/els ope!ating in easte!n Sudan nea! the E!it!ean /o!de!. E!it!ean I!esident *saias visited .ha!tou' in June 2006. Bhile E!it!ea p!ovided assistan$e to the *sla'i$ $ou!ts in So'alia, #hi$h st!ongly oppose Ethiopia, Sudan /!o)e!ed an ag!ee'ent /et#een the $ou!t leade!ship and the So'ali "!ansitional Cede!al ove!n'ent, #hi$h Ethiopia suppo!ts. "his Sudanese4E!it!ean !app!o$he'ent has !aised eye/!o#s in ;ddis ;/a/a and 0o!$ed /oth Ethiopia and Sudan to !easse!t pu/li$ly in !e$ent #ee)s the st!ong ties that $ontinue to eFist /et#een the t#o $ount!ies. *n an inte!vie# in ea!ly July 2006, Aeles des$!i/ed Ethio4Sudanese !elations Gas good as they have eve! /een and * eFpe$t the' to $ontinue as su$h.H ; gove!n'ent spo)es'an in .ha!tou' denied a 0e# days late! that /ilate!al !elations /et#een ;ddis ;/a/a and .ha!tou' had dete!io!ated 0ollo#ing the visit to Sudan /y *saias. :ne #onde!s i0 this is in$ipient eviden$e o0 Nueen e!t!ude o0 Den'a!)8s $on$e!n that Gthe lady doth p!otest too 'u$h, 'ethin)s.H Sudan4Ethiopia inte!a$tion as $on$e!ns the Nile suggests so'e int!iguing possi/ilities. :n the one hand, the Jonglei 1anal, should it eve! /e !evived, $ould have i'po!tant and poo!ly unde!stood envi!on'ental i'pa$ts on Sudan and Ethiopia. So'e /elieve that a signi0i$ant !edu$tion in the si-e o0 the Sudd #ould !edu$e the evapo!ation that eventually 0alls as !ain on the 'ountains o0 Ethiopia. "he point at #hi$h the no!th

%& end o0 the $anal !e9oins the Bhite Nile nea! the ent!y o0 the So/at>Ba!o>Ii/o! Rive! syste' 0!o' Ethiopia #ill p!o/a/ly have a 'a9o! i'pa$t on the Aa$ha! 'a!shes in Sudan and Ethiopia. But no one )no#s #hat that i'pa$t #ill /e. Ethiopian4Sudanese dialogue on Nile #ate! usage has va$illated in !e$ent de$ades /et#een $on0li$t and $oope!ation /ut !e$ently t!ended to#a!ds the latte!. Collo#ing the $hange o0 gove!n'ent in Ethiopia in %<<%, the t#o $ount!ies signed an ag!ee'ent the 0ollo#ing yea! to $oope!ate on the use o0 Nile #ate!. *n %<<6, a0te! a sha!p do#ntu!n in !elations #ith Ethiopia, Sudan said the #ate!s o0 the Nile should /e the eF$lusive !ight o0 Sudan and Egypt. ;0te! the out/!ea) o0 the E!it!ean4Ethiopian /o!de! #a!, Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt ag!eed in %<<< to see) the sustaina/le develop'ent o0 Nile #ate! th!ough e(uita/le eFploitation 0o! the $o''on /ene0it o0 all !ipa!ian states. Both Sudan and Ethiopia 9oined the Nile Basin *nitiative DNB*E in 200%. "hey have $oope!ated at the te$hni$al level on a se!ies o0 #ate! issues eve! sin$e. "he!e a!e 'o!e !easons 0o! Sudan and Ethiopia to $oope!ate on the use o0 Nile #ate! than to engage in $on0li$t. Both $ount!ies have $on$e!ns ove! the te!'s o0 the %<3< #ate! allo$ation ag!ee'ent /et#een Egypt and Sudan. Both $ount!ies also 0ea! that huge ne# i!!igation p!o9e$ts in Egypt #ill !e(ui!e an ino!dinate a'ount o0 additional #ate!. Sudan and Ethiopia $an $oope!ate on sha!ing hyd!oele$t!i$ po#e!, #hi$h has 'u$h g!eate! potential in Ethiopia. *t is 'o!e e00i$ient to sto!e #ate! at highe! elevations in Ethiopia, #he!e evapo!ation is signi0i$antly lo#e! than in Sudan, 0o! 0utu!e use in Sudan. John Bate!/u!y $on$luded that GEthio4Sudanese $oope!ation in the 'anage'ent o0 thei! sha!ed /asins is $o'pelling.H Bate!/u!y added that a day #ill $o'e #hen Sudan Gon$e again tu!ns to the develop'ent o0 the 'illions o0 a$!es o0 good land lying /et#een the Blue and Bhite Niles, and the!e a!e solid o/9e$tive !easons #hy they 'ight 'a)e $o''on $ause #ith Ethiopia.H *n a !e$ent study o0 the Nile Basin, Ja$) .alpa)ian o0 ;l4 ;)ha#ayn ,nive!sity in Ao!o$$o #!ote that !athe! than !ea$hing an ag!ee'ent #ith Egypt in %<3<, GSudan8s inte!ests #ould have p!o/a/ly /een se!ved /y helping itsel0 to the #ate! o! !ea$hing so'e a$$o''odation #ith Ethiopia.H Sudan and Ethiopia have eFpe!ien$ed 'u$h 'o!e $on0li$t than $oope!ation ove! the $entu!ies. "he!e a!e nu'e!ous !easons 0o! this. ;utho!ities on /oth sides o0 the /o!de! have a long histo!y o0 autho!ita!ian !ule and o$$asional s$he'es 0o! te!!ito!ial eFpansion. "hei! leade!s #e!e not !elu$tant to give the o!de! to $!oss the /o!de! to enhan$e thei! i'pe!ial o! !eligious goals. "he /o!de! !egion #as also a signi0i$ant sou!$e o0 slaves 0o! /oth $ount!ies. "his led to lo$al dis!uption and displa$e'ent o0 people and $on0li$t a'ong $o'peting slave!s. ;s in 'ost o0 ;0!i$a, the lengthy /o!de! that has /een in pla$e sin$e %<02 is a!ti0i$ial and 0!e(uently divides ethni$ g!oups that no# st!addle /oth sides. Aany o0 the $on0li$ts have /een $aused /y lo$al ethni$ disputes. Ethiopia has a long histo!y o0 1h!istian leade!ship. But it also has a la!ge Ausli' population, in$luding along pa!ts o0 the /o!de! #ith Sudan. Collo#ing the *sla'i-ation o0 Sudan, 'u$h o0 the $on0li$t $on$e!ned di00e!en$es /et#een the Ausli' leade!s in Sudan and the 1h!istian leade!s in Ethiopia, #ho sa# thei! $ount!y as a 1h!istian island in a Ausli' sea. :utside involve'ent /y the :tto'an E'pi!e, Egypt, *taly, and even

%= !eat B!itain $ont!i/uted to so'e o0 the $on0li$t. Sin$e Sudanese independen$e, di00e!en$es in politi$al ideology, espe$ially du!ing the Aa!Fist4?eninist De!g !egi'e, !aised $on$e!ns in .ha!tou'. :ne t!end that /egan ea!ly in the !elationship is the tit40o!4 tat poli$y o0 allo#ing opposition g!oups to ope!ate 0!o' the te!!ito!y o0 one $ount!y against the othe!. *n !e$ent de$ades, this has done 'o!e da'age to the /ilate!al !elationship than any othe! single develop'ent and the!e is no indi$ation that it has disappea!ed as an issue. *t is su!p!ising that the!e has not /een 'o!e $on0li$t /et#een Sudan and Ethiopia ove! the $entu!ies. "he 0a$t that the 0!ontie! is 0a! 0!o' the $apitals and 0!o' the $ente! o0 po#e! in /oth $ount!ies /est eFplains the !elative la$) o0 $on0li$t. ,ntil 0ai!ly !e$ently, neithe! the leade!s o0 Sudan no! Ethiopia too) 'u$h inte!est in #hat #as happening along the /o!de!. "!anspo!tation lin)s, espe$ially to and /et#een the southe!n se$tion o0 the /o!de!, a!e still eF$eedingly poo!. "he eFisten$e o0 signi0i$ant oil in southe!n Sudan and possi/ly even inside Ethiopia along the /o!de! 'ay $hange this situation. :$$asionally a $o''on ene'y has te'po!a!ily $aused the t#o $ount!ies to $oope!ate. ;lthough Nile #ate! issues should /!ing the t#o $ount!ies togethe!, it has not had that e00e$t so 0a!. ;voiding 1on0li$t ove! Nile Bate! *ssues "he Nile Basin *nitiative has /e$o'e the 'ost i'po!tant 'e$hanis' so 0a! to en$ou!age $oope!ation a'ong the !ipa!ian $ount!ies. Ea$h NB* 'e'/e! has ag!eed to sha!e in0o!'ation #ith othe! !ipa!ians on p!o9e$ts it intends to laun$h and, i0 possi/le, unde!ta)e 9oint studies to ensu!e the sustaina/le utili-ation o0 #ate!. "he NB*, #ith st!ong suppo!t 0!o' the Bo!ld Ban), ,N Develop'ent I!og!a', and 1anada, e'phasi-es /asin4#ide $oope!ation. ;lthough the NB* has had so'e positive a$$o'plish'ents, Nile eFpe!t Ro/e!t 1ollins /elieves it has a$tually done ve!y little so 0a! othe! than p!ovide te$hni$al t!aining 0o! 'e'/e! $ount!y pe!sonnel. He a!gues that ea$h !ipa!ian $ontinues, 0o! the 'ost pa!t, to p!o$eed #ith p!o9e$ts #ithout !e0e!en$e to othe! 'e'/e!s and that Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, in pa!ti$ula!, igno!e the othe! !ipa!ians. Cinally, 1ollins says the!e is still no ove!all plan 0o! 'anaging #ate! in the /asin. "he Bo!ld Ban) $oo!dinates the *nte!national 1onso!tiu' 0o! 1oope!ation on the Nile D*11:NE, #hi$h p!o'otes 0inan$ing 0o! $oope!ative #ate! !esou!$e develop'ent and 'anage'ent in the /asin. "he Ban) also ad'iniste!s the Nile Basin "!ust Cund, a 'e$hanis' to i'ple'ent /asin4#ide p!og!a's. I!oviding the!e is good #ill a'ong the !ipa!ians, these p!og!a's $an #o!) to the /ene0it o0 !ipa!ians /y en$ou!aging the $ultivation o0 $!ops that !e(ui!e less #ate!, !eusing d!ainage #ate!, and i'p!oving the envi!on'ent in #ate!shed a!eas. 1ount!ies #ith signi0i$ant hyd!oele$t!i$ po#e! potential li)e Ethiopia $an /uild da's and sell po#e! to Sudan and Egypt. ,pst!ea' da's in Ethiopia $an t!ap sedi'ent that is $ausing p!o/le's 0o! !ese!voi!s in Sudan and Egypt. Sudan $an do the sa'e in the $ase o0 Egypt. Be$ause o0 lo#e! evapo!ation, Ethiopia $an sto!e #ate! 'o!e e00i$iently 0o! use du!ing ti'es o0 s$a!$ity in Sudan and Egypt. *t $an also hold /a$) #ate! to p!event 0looding. 1oope!ative Nile Basin develop'ent $an p!ovide the !ipa!ians g!eate! net /ene0its than they #ould a$hieve th!ough unilate!al

%3 develop'ent p!o9e$ts. "he Nile Basin o00e!s an oppo!tunity 0o! the inte!national $o''unity to engage in $on0li$t p!evention. Co! its pa!t, the ,S should elevate Nile Basin $oope!ation to a 'a9o! 0o!eign poli$y p!io!ity in the !egion and t!eat Nile #ate! (uestions as a potentially signi0i$ant $on0li$t that $an /e p!evented. "he ,S has /een !elu$tant to do this so 0a! 0o! /u!eau$!ati$ and su/stantive !easons. Egypt is lo$ated in the Bu!eau o0 Nea! Easte!n ;00ai!s in the State Depa!t'ent #hile the othe! nine !ipa!ians a!e in the Bu!eau o0 ;0!i$an ;00ai!s. *n !e$ent de$ades, Egypt has /een 'o!e i'po!tant to ,S poli$y than the othe! nine !ipa!ians $o'/ined. Egypt does not #ant to hea! 0!o' the ,S a/out Nile #ate! issues unless the ,S eFp!esses 0ull suppo!t 0o! Egyptian Nile poli$ies. *n o!de! to avoid anothe! potentially $ontentious issue, the ,S has la!gely $o'plied. "he ,S is, neve!theless, #ell positioned to en$ou!age $oope!ative solutions 0o! the use o0 Nile #ate! as a !outine pa!t o0 its diplo'ati$ dialogue #ith Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia, and the seven othe! !ipa!ians. "he ,S should also #o!) #ith and suppo!t 0inan$ially the NB*, the Nile Basin "!ust Cund, and *11:N. *t should o00e! to 0inan$e te$hni$al assistan$e /y app!op!iate ,S institutions to develop !egional $li'ati$ 'odels, sho!t and long4te!' hyd!o 'eteo!ologi$al 0o!e$asting, and 'odeling o0 envi!on'ental $onditions. Cinally, the ,S should en$ou!age the NB* to d!a# on ;'e!i$an te$hni$al eFpe!tise in a!eas su$h as !e'ote sensing and eog!aphi$al *n0o!'ation Syste's 0o! the 'ultitude o0 te$hni$al and envi!on'ental issues that 0a$e Nile Basin !ipa!ians.

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