Aranca Technical Analysis Daily Report

5 August 2013 EENIFTY INDEX: OPEN 5,750.05 | HIGH 5,761.85 | LOW 5,649.00 | CLOSE 5,677.90 | DOWN 0.90% RESISTANCE1 5,743.5 | RESISTANCE2 5,809.1 | SUPPORT1 5,630.7 | SUPPORT2 5,583.4
NIFTY Summary Particulars

Nifty Outlook
2 Aug 13 13 01 Aug13 Chg

Index Volume (000's) Value INR (Cr) Cos Traded Winners Losers No Change
Source: NSE

5,677.90 222,494 6,350 50 12 38 0

5,727.85 216,762 7,164 50 40 10 0

(0.87%) 2.6% (11.4%) 0 (28) 28 0

Nifty ended 49.95 points, or 0.87%, lower at 5,677.90. The index continues to lose ground, but bounced back from the lows of the day to end just above our mentioned support level of 5,675. It also stands near its upward sloping trend line on the weekly charts. If the index manages to breach this support, we could see further weakness in the coming sessions. However, if 5,770 is seen, we could see some sideways movement/short covering before the Nifty eventually breaches its all important support of 5,675. All sectors, except IT and selective Pharmaceutical stocks, are looking weak. The index could face resistance at 5,770 and 5,830. Conversely, it could find support at 5,675 and 5,570.

NIFTY Intraday Daily

5,760 5,750 5,740 5,730 5,720 5,710 5,700 5,690 5,680 5,670 5,660 5,650

NIFTY Price vs. Volume (1-month)

6,300 6,200 6,100 6,000 5,900 5,800 5,700 5,600 5,500 5,400
19-Jul 26-Jul

NIFTY 1-yr Movement & Volume

300 250 200 150 100 50 0
Sep-12

400

6,300 6,000 5,700 5,400 5,100

(Shares mn)

Millions

300

200

Nov-12

Feb-13

09:16

11:56

14:36

11:16

12:36

13:16

13:56

15:16

09:56

10:36

28-Jun

Volume (RHS)

Nifty

Volume (LHS)

Apr-13

12-Jul

2-Aug

Source: Thomson Reuters

Source: NSE, ARANCA Research

Source: NSE, ARANCA Research

NIFTY Technical Chart Daily

Source: Thomson Reuters

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Jul-13
Nifty

100

5-Jul

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Aranca Technical Analysis Daily Report

5 August 2013

Recommendation 1: Grasim Industries (DABU)

Recommendation Sell CMP `2,540.50 Stop Loss `2,650.00 Target `2,380.00

The stock declined 3.53% to end the day at `2,540.50. On the daily charts, it ended in a bearish candlestick formation, suggesting selling pressure and further downside potential. Momentum indicators in sell mode confirm the above observation. One can consider selling the stock on a rise towards `2,600.00 for a target price of `2,440.00 and `2,380.00 with a stop loss of `2,650.00.
Source: Thomson Reuters, ARANCA Research

Recommendation 2: Ultratech Cement (ZEE)

Recommendation Sell CMP `1,779.15 Stop Loss `1,835.00 Target `1,650.00

The stock dropped 2.13% to end the day at `1,779.15. On the daily charts, it has breached its horizontal trend line, suggesting weakness at current levels. Negative slope of the moving averages indicates the nearterm trend to be weak. One can consider selling the stock below `1,755.00 for a target price of `1,700.00 and `1,650.00 with a stop loss of `1,835.00.
Source: Thomson Reuters, ARANCA Research

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Aranca Technical Analysis Daily Report

5 August 2013
Company Name NSE Symbol Mcap (` Cr) Avg. Vol. 5d (mn) Price %Change R1 R2 S1 S2 RSI MACD1 MACD Signal ADX EMA 20D

ACC Ambuja Cem Asian Paint Axis Bank Bajaj Auto Bk Of Baroda Bharti Airtel Bhel Bharat Petro Cairn India Cipla Coal India Dlf Dr Reddy Lab Gail Grasim Ind Hcl Techno Hous Dev Fin Hdfc Bank Hero Honda Hindalco Hind Unilever Icici Bank Infra Develop Infosys Tech Itc Jindal Steel Jaiprak Asso Kotak Mah Bk Larsen & Tou Mah & Mah Maruti Suzuki NTPC ONGC Punjab Nat Bk Power Grid Ranbaxy Lab Reliance Reliance Infr Steel Author Sbi Sesa Goa Siemens Sterlite P Sun Pharma Tata Motors Tata Power Tata Steel Tata Consult Wipro

ACC AMBUJACEM ASIANPAINT AXISBANK BAJAJ-AUTO BANKBAROD BHARTIARTL BHEL BPCL CAIRN CIPLA COALINDIA DLF DRREDDY GAIL Grasim HCLTECH HDFC HDFCBANK HEROMOTOC HINDALCO HINDUNILVR ICICIBANK IDFC INFY ITC JINDALSTEL JPASSOCIAT KOTAKBANK LT M&M MARUTI NTPC ONGC PNB POWERGRID RANBAXY RELIANCE RELINFRA SAIL SBIN SESAGOA SIEMENS STER SUNPHARMA TATAMOTOR TATAPOWER TATASTEEL TCS WIPRO

22,019 22,942 46,385 48,705 56,581 26,039 110,838 53,695 6,863 56,031 28,851 215,435 38,219 32,435 42,158 24,725 44,830 128,325 167,581 40,918 23,613 103,105 132,579 22,902 121,608 217,691 30,088 19,623 52,620 82,794 61,803 47,560 137,412 238,915 24,462 47,820 19,307 286,264 11,423 39,340 91,517 19,242 25,849 46,576 80,868 78,176 21,303 35,299 252,412 84,244

0.4 3.4 0.7 3.6 0.4 2.2 8.4 2.9 1.9 1.6 1.1 2.2 10.0 0.6 1.1 0.0 1.9 3.6 5.0 0.3 7.1 3.0 5.3 11.2 1.1 6.9 3.5 59.4 1.2 2.5 1.3 0.6 6.1 4.5 1.5 5.1 1.4 2.8 3.4 3.6 2.5 2.4 0.4 5.1 1.7 5.3 2.2 5.1 1.1 3.4

1174.90 171.30 497.45 1103.20 1909.25 487.65 345.25 149.60 289.85 296.30 399.90 254.60 128.45 2238.70 304.60 2540.50 935.95 808.35 631.25 1801.80 86.70 615.95 887.10 103.55 3008.80 332.95 187.00 29.70 653.50 830.15 854.75 1337.70 129.85 277.90 523.75 91.35 273.10 857.35 311.80 39.55 1680.60 123.90 451.35 72.20 555.20 290.45 84.50 202.35 1845.85 438.70

2.29 2.30 (0.15) 1.60 (1.27) (5.25) 0.58 (0.66) (4.83) 2.21 (0.86) (5.74) (6.82) (1.74) (0.15) (3.53) 0.56 (1.06) (0.15) (0.73) (0.91) (3.03) (2.96) (1.62) 1.15 (1.90) (7.59) (8.47) (1.92) (1.76) (1.92) (0.19) (1.29) (0.34) (3.74) (11.18) 4.10 0.86 (5.50) (4.35) (0.15) (2.59) (5.99) (3.93) (2.30) 0.52 (3.98) (3.71) 1.68 0.53

1196.18 174.43 503.73 1117.1 1942.10 512.12 350.07 152.98 300.52 299.17 405.17 267.05 138.33 2271.38 309.97 2616.00 948.13 824.30 635.08 1841.18 88.95 634.65 909.90 106.02 3025.50 341.42 202.00 32.53 668.87 845.85 871.85 1358.48 134.62 283.78 544.97 98.95 284.55 869.53 327.80 41.40 1704.70 128.70 482.32 75.42 571.25 294.15 86.93 209.30 1858.27 448.80

1217.47 177.57 510.02 1131.1 1974.95 536.58 354.88 156.37 311.18 302.03 410.43 279.50 148.22 2304.07 315.33 2691.50 960.32 840.25 638.92 1880.57 91.20 653.35 932.70 108.48 3042.20 349.88 217.00 35.37 684.23 861.55 888.95 1379.27 139.38 289.67 566.18 106.55 296.00 881.72 343.80 43.25 1728.80 133.50 513.28 78.63 587.30 297.85 89.37 216.25 1870.68 458.90

1154.63 167.63 491.58 1084.6 1883.30 472.62 339.77 146.98 280.67 292.17 395.37 246.35 122.03 2209.63 299.12 2495.00 925.08 795.40 627.13 1771.23 84.50 602.80 874.25 101.57 2986.60 327.07 176.80 27.93 641.57 820.55 843.80 1322.28 125.82 271.63 508.82 85.15 257.65 847.58 302.00 38.35 1660.75 120.15 430.22 69.87 544.80 284.50 83.03 198.30 1825.07 431.50

1134.37 163.97 485.72 1066.1 1857.35 457.58 334.28 144.37 271.48 288.03 390.83 238.10 115.62 2180.57 293.63 2449.50 914.22 782.45 623.02 1740.67 82.30 589.65 861.40 99.58 2964.40 321.18 166.60 26.17 629.63 810.95 832.85 1306.87 121.78 265.37 493.88 78.95 242.20 837.82 292.20 37.15 1640.90 116.40 409.08 67.53 534.40 278.55 81.57 194.25 1804.28 424.30

37.41 34.69 46.76 40.27 39.10 23.00 66.88 27.79 21.36 47.31 39.24 20.09 11.09 43.12 30.17 12.51 78.54 44.99 39.27 53.18 26.34 37.27 17.97 18.51 90.42 26.57 28.55 7.36 33.97 21.54 31.70 21.80 21.95 30.32 18.34 12.70 28.68 37.08 19.27 12.41 18.73 25.12 19.01 26.66 48.89 48.58 30.76 17.18 86.82 80.11

(3.98) (1.58) 10.28 (50.93) 32.65 (11.39) 9.71 (5.60) (7.98) 2.31 4.62 (4.94) (6.86) 28.91 0.93 (27.82) 33.42 (9.81) (5.62) 41.65 (1.43) 16.39 (37.47) (5.80) 119.20 5.99 (10.27) (4.65) (14.11) (21.22) (15.65) (44.42) (2.05) (4.50) (25.36) (0.71) (15.49) 13.08 (0.65) (2.62) (62.31) (3.41) (7.59) (2.06) 15.34 0.43 0.84 (14.76) 74.42 14.62

(14.51) (5.16) 9.15 (58.78) 24.12 (17.27) 11.19 (7.81) (12.68) 0.83 2.87 (8.13) (10.32) 13.49 (2.24) (49.25) 35.50 (10.08) (10.81) 44.46 (3.28) 7.83 (43.15) (7.47) 128.50 1.51 (10.24) (6.18) (18.96) (30.90) (17.75) (52.49) (3.33) (7.24) (32.71) (2.36) (19.94) 4.49 (8.32) (2.78) (70.71) (5.65) (16.91) (3.15) 14.12 0.12 0.13 (17.01) 82.11 19.87

43.22 47.45 23.67 57.00 27.23 33.09 46.61 52.98 40.04 20.52 27.34 32.68 38.78 27.06 31.22 52.79 60.28 34.00 36.66 30.01 44.96 33.67 54.93 53.38 68.57 45.09 38.21 72.34 34.69 49.18 30.10 49.28 42.77 36.13 39.70 51.22 62.72 32.70 36.24 53.35 57.02 37.46 44.77 36.76 25.61 25.15 33.88 69.96 70.25 49.08

1219.29 184.99 481.76 1257.81 1887.03 600.40 312.84 176.37 354.33 295.60 399.06 296.40 184.04 2195.54 318.31 2795.11 825.31 833.14 662.25 1711.88 99.23 610.50 1033.09 131.29 2648.66 341.90 237.21 54.23 709.09 930.46 923.68 1485.53 144.16 307.80 664.59 108.31 346.49 854.74 368.44 50.55 1933.01 144.86 541.90 84.48 520.45 291.42 88.68 262.39 1600.28 372.45

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Aranca Technical Analysis Daily Report

5 August 2013

NIFTY Technical Chart Daily

The rise in ADX indicates higher momentum

NIFTY Technical Chart Weekly

Nifty is trading just above its long-term upward sloping trend line

NIFTY Technical Chart Monthly

Nifty ended the month at 5,742.00; the index is trading above its 40-month SMA

Source: ThomsonReuters, Aranca Research

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Aranca Technical Analysis Daily Report

5 August 2013 Glossary
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that ranges from 0 to 100. It compares the extent of the stock's recent price movements by RSI evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought, and below 30 could be considered oversold. Generally, if the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. Conversely, if the RSI of a stock rises above 30 it is considered bullish. The RSI used is of 14 days MACD1 MACD1 shows the relationship between a longer period moving average and a short period moving average of a stocks price. Generally, the 26 -day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 12-day EMA are used to calculate MACD1. The MACD signal line is the nine-day EMA of the MACD that is used as a trigger for buy and sell signals. MACD falling below the signal line indicates bearishness and MACD rising above the signal line indicates bullishness Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) is an indicator, which measures purely the strength of the current trend not considering whether it is up or ADX / DMI down. ADX is derived from the relationship of the Directional Movement Index (DMI) lines. Positive DMI measures the strength of up moves, while negative DMI measures the strength of down moves. ADX above 40 indicates a strong trend and below 20, a weak trend. Support Resistance Exponential moving average - EMA Simple moving average - SMA NIFTY daily technical chart NIFTY weekly technical chart NIFTY monthly technical chart Support is the level at which the stock is likely to see increased interest from buyers. The buying support will prevent the stock from falling further S1 is the first level expected to witness increased buying interest in a declining market If the market continues to fall below the S1 then S2 is the next level at which buyers are expected to acquire the stock, thereby preventing falling declines Resistance is the level at which the stock is likely to see increased interest from sellers. The selling pressure will prevent the stock from rising further R1 is the first level expected to witness increased selling interest in a rising market. If the market breaks the first resistance R2 is the next level at which increased selling can be expected Exponential moving average (EMA) is the weighted average of the prices of a given security where higher weights are given to recent data points. EMA is used to analyze the trend of a stock A simple moving average (SMA) is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. Daily technical chart plots the daily movement of NIFTY for a period of last six months using each day as a single data point. These charts are used to track short-term price movements

MACD Signal line

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