METHODOLOGY

ASSUMPTIONS 1 Future results are non impacted by past performances Current season’s performance & confidence level are main factors Goals scored, Shots taken & Shots on Target to depict confidence, aggression & accuracy (~Conceded) Excepted Goals to follow Poisson PDF
2 Team Data Match Data

5

An Example: Arsenal v/s Chelsea
Avg. Values Goals H A H Shots A Target Shots H A Attack Power H A

AMITABH VAJPAYEE XLRI, JAMSHEDPUR
9

Team Arsenal

Step 1 Step 2 Step 3

Data taken for Current Season Calculation of Attack & Defense Power for each club Simulation of Game Results for future matches as exemplified Collation of above results into Final Standing table

2.00 2.13 12.38 9.75 6.63 5.25 1.21 1.31

Chelsea 2.38 1.63 13.63 12.63 6.25 5.50 1.28 1.42 Avg. Values Team Arsenal Defense Power H A

Goals H A H

Shots A

Target Shots H A

Step 4

WORKING MODEL
Goals Scored Total Shots Shot on Target
For Home & Away

0.75 1.38 8.25 10.63 4.13 4.25 0.93 0.89 10

Chelsea 0.88 1.38 7.13 8.63 3.13 3.75 0.80 0.79

EPL 2013-14 Winner is
P 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 W 28 27 27 26 23 21 17 15 15 11 11 7 6 D 6 8 6 6 12 8 11 13 11 18 13 11 13

ARSENAL
L 4 3 5 6 3 9 10 10 12 9 14 20 19 GF 79 79 98 93 56 58 30 41 43 38 30 18 20 GA 30 32 27 42 25 33 32 32 50 30 41 42 44 GD 49 47 71 51 31 25 -2 9 -7 8 -11 -24 -24 PTS 90 89 87 84 81 71 62 58 56 51 46 32 31

Taking avg. values per match

6 Exptd.

Avg. Goals Scored
Weighted Averages

Avg. Total Shots

Avg. Shot on Target Away ATTACK Power

Goal Home Team*

Avg. Goals Home Team

Attack Power Home Team

Defense Power Away Team

EPL 2013-14 Final Standing Table
OS CLUB 1 Arsenal 2 Chelsea 3 Man City 4 Liverpool 5 Everton 6 Man United 7 Tottenham 8 Swansea 9 Newcastle 10 Southampton

*Similarly, Calculate Expected Goal Away Team 7
Clubs Arsenal (H) Chelsea (A) Exptd. Goal

% Probability of scoring**
0 15 13 1 28 26 2 27 27 3 17 19 4 8 10 5+ 5 6

Home ATTACK Power

&

1.9 2.1

**Exptd. Goals follow POISSON Distribution 8
Chelsea (Away)
0 1 2 3 4 5+

3

Similarly Goals, Shots & Shots at target CONCEDED
Home DEFENSE Power

Probability Distribution Table
Arsenal (Home)
0 2 4 4 3 1 1 1 4 7 8 5 3 2 2 3 7 7 5 3 2 3 2 5 5 3 2 1 4 1 2 2 2 1 0 5+ 1 1 1 1 0 0

11 Aston Villa 12 Hull 13 Stoke

&

Away DEFENCE Power

14 Norwich
15 Cardiff 16 Fulham 17 West Ham 18 West Brom 19 Sunderland 20 Crystal Palace

38
38 38 38 38 38 38

8
6 8 4 4 6 5

6
12 4 16 16 10 10

24
20 26 18 18 22 23

22
14 21 15 19 16 13

64
47 60 37 40 50 45

-42
-33 -39 -22 -21 -34 -32

30
30 28 28 28 28 25

Weights used in the model: 4 LOGIC: A Goal Goals Scored 50% Total Shots 20%

Shot on Target

30%

carries more impact than unconverted shot (Subjective)

% Probability of home win % Probability of draw % Probability of away win

37 21 42

Most Likely Result Arsenal 1 : 2 Chelsea