The Statistics and Probabilities of Football Team Results Football has long been popular in numerous countries across

the world, and increasingly becoming so in many more. Consequently, football means varying things to different people it is a physical pursuit, a leisure activity, an event to be celebrated and a business !Chadwic"#. $owever, more than ever, football is a sport that is passionately loved by millions of people around the world, with many individuals passionately following and supporting the endeavors of specific teams. %ndeed, among the milestones of football is the formation of athletic leagues such as the &nglish Premier 'eague( stunning athlete incomes( revenues for athletic teams and leagues from television deals( dramatic increases in tic"et prices, as well as the evolution of sports clubs into Plcs !$amil, )ichie, *ughton and +arby#. ,n e-ample of a successful football team is the )anchester City Football Club !)FC#. This paper presents a mathematical e-ploration of the performance of the )FC over the past five years. Through the use of various statistical tools, discussions will be made pertaining to relevant statistical data on the )FC, including successes and failures in both domestic and international levels, as well as emphasis on the contributions that an )FC player, goal"eeper .oe $art, has made to the team. The )FC was selected because it is a team that % have been observing for several years now. *verview of the )anchester City Football Club The )FC ownership has had a colorful history. The )FC has its roots to the ,rdwic" ,.F.C., which dissolved in /012 and reorgani3ed as the )anchester City Football Club 'td. !)CFC#. %n recent years, the finances and ownership of the )FC have been turbulent as various entities sought to gain ownership of the team. $owever, in 4551, Shei"h )ansour bin 6ayed ,l 7ahyan acquired the team !)CFC#. Shei"h )ansour poured investments into the team, and spent roughly 8955 million for the acquisition of new players !)CFC#. :y the 4551;/5 season, )CFC ran"ed as the fifth richest football club in &ngland according to revenue !Rogers#. +orldwide, the team ran"ed //th, with revenues reaching </22 million !Rogers#. Regardless of the tumultuous ownership history of the )FC, the team has consistently figured in the top 45 of world ran"ings in terms of revenues and wins. )FC has had a roster of prestigious players, including, Shaun =oater, Shaun >in"lad3e, Richard ?unne, Carlos Teves, Pablo 6abaleta, ?avid Silva and Robson de Sou3a !Robinho#. %t is important to note that for football fans, an important consideration is a team@s record of winnings. This is because, after everything has been said and done, winning is what sports is all about, either as a business, a form of entertainment or as a game !Storm#. Therefore, any factor that does not belong to the dichotomy of winningAlosing is not considered as part of the system, simply because it is not sport. 7evertheless, as is common "nowledge, winning is e-tremely difficult to sustain Bas no record is unbeatable and no championship stands foreverC !Storm 2D2#. Consequently, football athletes or clubs are constantly under immense pressure to establish goals of advantage, otherwise "nown as the Btotali3ation process in SportC !Storm 2D2#. For the football team, this totali3ation process translates into the acquisition of improved administrative capacity, recruitment of e-cellent coaches as well as allocating resources so that the athletes@ performances are enhanced. This is why, at this point, it is quite interesting to learn about the

4 )FC@s statistics with regards to its performance. %n a way, such statistics tell a story of their own, and can even determine whether Shei"h )ansour@s strategies and investments are worthwhile or not. For fans, such statistics are important considering that they are generally perceived as milestones to be celebrated or momentary failures that need to be surpassed. )FC Successes and Failures *ver Past Five Eears This section provides a clear picture of the successes and failures of the )FC both at the domestic and international levels. /. ?omestic Statistics The )FC is one of the 45 member teams of the &nglish Premier 'eague !&P'#, which currently sits at the top of the &nglish football league system. Therefore, it may be said that the &P' is &ngland@s primary football competition. The &P' is actually a corporation and each of its 45 member clubs are its shareholders !&P'#. &P' seasons are from ,ugust to )ay, so that teams play 90 competitions each. The &P' is currently sponsored by :arclays, which is why it is also "nown as the :arclays Premier 'eague. *ver the past five years, the wins and losses of )FC at the &P' are the following Table / )FC Frequencies of +ins and 'osses, 4551A45/9 !FootStats#.
Year 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 Ranking 2 2 1 3 5 Played /5 /1 /1 /1 /1 Home Win Draw /5 5 /55F 5F /2 9 G2F /DF /0 / 1HF HF /9 2 D0F 4/F /4 2 D9F 4/F Loss 5 5F 4 //F 5 5F 4 //F 9 /DF Played /5 /1 /1 /1 /1 Away Win Draw 2 4 25F 45F 1 D 2GF 94F /5 2 H9F 4/F 0 2 24F 4/F D 1 94F 2GF Loss 2 25F 2 4/F H 4DF G 9GF 2 4/F

The cumulative frequency graph of these data is as follows =raph / Cumulative Frequency =raph !FootStats#

9

4. %nternational Statistics )FC also plays at the I&F, Champions 'eague, commonly referred to simply as the Champions 'eague. To note, the Champions 'eague is a yearly continental club football tournament organi3ed by the Inion of &uropean Football ,ssociations !I&F,#. %t is considered as one of the most prestigious football competitions in the world. The )FC@s historical statistics for the Champions 'eague are as follows Table 4 )FC Frequencies Champions 'eague, 4551A45/9 !S"ySports#.
Year 45/9 45/4 45// 45/5 4551 Played D D D D D Win H 5 9 9 H Draw 5 9 / 4 / Loss / 9 4 / 5 Points /H 9 /5 // /H

=oal"eeper .oe $art@s Performances with )FC .oe $art is a goal"eeper for the )FC aside from being a player at the &ngland national football team. $art is currently recogni3ed Bthe standAout "eeper of his generation, the undisputed 7o. / and a player who has been tipped to become the best goal"eeper in the worldC !&SP7FC#. The turning point in $art@s career was in 45/5 when he was voted as the Premier 'eague goal"eeper of the season as a nod to his outstanding performances against :irmingham City. ,lthough $art Joined )FC in 455D, he was loaned out a number of times to other teams. Specifically, $art was loaned out to Tranmere Rovers in .anuary 455G( :lac"pool in ,pril 455G( and, :irmingham for the 4551A45/5 &P' season !&SP7FC#. %t would be interesting to find out

2 how )FC fared during the times $art was playing for the team, and during the times when he was loaned out. The following are $art@s domestic and international statistics based on appearances he made as )FC player at &P' Table 9 $art@s )FC Statistics, 455DA45/9 !+ashington Post#.
Year 455D 455G 4550 4551 45/5 45// 45/4 45/9 Totals Team MP Min G G P P!" )anchester City / 15 5 A 5 A )anchester City 4D 4925 92 /.9/ / 4 )anchester City 49 /111 9/ /.9H 4 4 :irmingham City 9D 9425 24 /./G 4 4 )anchester City 90 9245 99 5.0G 9 2 )anchester City 90 9245 41 5.GD 4 9 )anchester City 90 9245 92 5.01 / 4 )anchester City /9 //G5 /D /.49 5 5 /151 4/ 4/9 1 1 /.59 // /H P!# $%P&t $%s A H5 5 5 4H 99.9 H5 A 4D.G A /4H G5 /H0 /59 /54 05 94 DG5 $HT A 9/D 492 H0H 2H/ 9G9 922 /9/ 4292 $HT' (G A /H1 /5/ 455 /9H /9/ //4 2G 00H $P&t A G0.D D1.9 G1 GH.G GG.1 G5.4 DD.G GH.2 )$ Y) R) / G D /5 /0 /G /0 2 0/ 5 5 5 9 / 5 / 5 H 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

'egend )in =, =,, P, P>F P> SvPct Svs S$T S$TA*= SPct CS EC RC

)inutes =oals ,llowed =oals ,llowed ,verage Penalties ,llowed Penalty >ic"s Faced Penalty >ic" Save Percentage Saves Shots Faced Shots on =oal Faced Save Pct.!Percentage# Clean Sheets Cautions;Eellow Cards Red Cards

,s clearly seen through the help of Table /, and by correlating the results of $art@s statistics with that of )FC &P' statistics, the worst year that the )FC has had over the past five years was the year that $art was on loan to :irmingham City. $owever, in 45//, when )FC became &P' champion, $art played in all 90 games for a total of 9,245 minutes( the goals he allowed stood only at 41( he was able to successfully bloc" a penalty "ic"( of the 9G9 shots and shots on goal he faced, he was able to save a high GGF.

H )easures of 'ocation and Spread There are some people who are not fond of loo"ing at statistical data, but would want to obtain a BsnapshotC of a team@s performance. %n cases such as these, it would be helpful if a single number can represent a specific dataset, and measures of location can come in handy. Three measures of location are mean, median and mode. :ased on the &P' performance of )FC from 4551 to 45/9, the mean, median and mode are the following Table 2 )easures of 'ocation
Meas*re )ean )edian )ode Played /G.4 /1 /1 Home Win Draw /9.2 4.2 /9 9 /9 2 Loss /.2 4 5 Played /G.4 /1 /1 way Win Draw G.2 H 0 2 1 2 Loss 2.0 2 2

)eanwhile, measures of spread are the following Table H )easures of Spread
Meas*re Range Std. ?eviation Ranking 2 /.H/DH0 Played 1 2.54214 Home Win Draw 0 2 9./D440 /.2/24/ Loss 9 5.HGG9H Played 1 /.H/DH0 way Win Draw D G 4.25094 4.D2HGH Loss 9 /.95902

Probability ?istribution ,t this point, it would be interesting to find out whether )FC has a good chance of being the champion for the ne-t &P' season. % had learned in class that probability distribution is a good statistical tool to use for such analysis. The way % understand it, probability distribution is a statistical method of describing every possible and relevant values as well as the chances that a random variable can fall within a specific range. To note, this range will refer to the statistically possible minimum and ma-imum values. Ta"ing these into consideration, it appears that the )FC has a fairly good chance of winning the &P' in the ne-t season, based on a probability of 2HF. %n other words, there is a 2HF probability that )FC will win 44 to 40 games. To recall, )FC became the &P' champion in 45// with 40 wins. Table D Probability that )FC will be &P' Champion
Wins /4 /2 /0 44 4D Pro+a+ility 5.5H 5./ 5.2 5.9 5./

D
40 5.5H 0,-5

Conclusion )FC@s worst performance at the &P' over the past five years too" place in 4551. This was also the time that $art was on loan to :irmingham City. *n the other hand, )FC@s best performance at the &P' over the past five years was in 45//, when it became the 'eague Champion. ,t this time, $art won the &P'@s coveted =oal"eeper of the year award, which he had also won the year earlier. %nterestingly, a correlation analysis indicates that $art has made significant contributions to the team@s successes. Shei"h )ansour would be better off holding on to $art amidst rumors of his loan to another team in the coming season. )eanwhile, Shei"h )ansour@s investments seem to be paying off, as the )FC has been garnering high ran"ings at the &P' since its latest acquisition. ,t this point, a probabilities analysis indicates that )FC has a 2HF chance of winning 44 to 40 games in the coming season. +or"s Cited Chadwic", Simon. Managing Football. 'ondon Routledge, 45/4. &nglish Premier 'eague. B+ho +e ,re.C 45/9. ,ccessed H .anuary 45/2 from http ;;www.premierleague.com;content;premierleague;enAgb;about;whoAweAare.html &SP7FC. B.oe $art.C 45/9. ,ccessed H .anuary 45/2 from http ;;espnfc.com;player;K;id;952D4;JoeAhartLccM2G/D FootStats. B)anchester City Team $ome and ,way Profile.C 45/9. ,ccessed H .anuary 45/2 from http ;;www.footstats.co.u";inde-.cfmL tas"MteamsNthisdateM5H;5/;45/2NCF=R%?>&EM)anF45City $amil, Sean, .onathan )ichie, Christine *ughton and Steven +arby, The Changing Face of the Football Business: Supporters Direct. 'ondon Routledge, 45/9. )anchester City Football Club. B,nnual Report 45//;/4.C 45/9. ,ccessed H .anuary 45/2 from http ;;content.mcfc.co.u";O;media;Files;,nnualF45Report;,nnualF45reportF45///4F 45F%7,'.pdf Rogers, Simon. B?eloitte )oney 'eague The +orldPs Top Football Teams and $ow )uch )oney They )a"e.C 45//. ,ccessed H .anuary 45/9 from http ;;www.theguardian.com;news;datablog;45//;feb;/5;deloitteAmoneyAleagueAteamsA manchesterAspurs S"ySports. BChampions 'eague.C 45/9. ,ccessed H .anuary 45/2 from http ;;www/.s"ysports.com;football;competitions;championsleague;table;45//

G Storm, Rasmus >. BThe Rational &motions of FC >Qbenhavn , 'esson on =enerating Profit in Professional Soccer.C Soccer & Society, /5.9;2 !4551# pp. 2H1A2GD. +eb. H .an. 45/2. +ashington Post. BR/ .oe $art.C 45/2. ,ccessed H .anuary 45/2 from http ;;stats.washingtonpost.com;epl;players.aspLplayerM2/G24