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Energy Policy 37 (2009) 12221238

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Energy Policy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

Sustainable power planning for the island of Crete


Georgios P. Giatrakos a, Theocharis D. Tsoutsos a,, Nikos Zografakis b
a b

Environmental Engineering Department, Technical University of Crete, University Campus, GR 73100 Chania, Greece Regional Energy Agency, General Secretariat of the Region of Crete, Greece

a r t i c l e in f o
Article history: Received 1 August 2008 Accepted 29 October 2008 Available online 18 January 2009 Keywords: Crete Sustainable energy planning Renewable energy

a b s t r a c t
Crete, as one of the largest and most touristic islands of the Mediterranean, is facing abrupt population and economic growth tendencies that result in the incessant problem of inability to meet power demand increase. This paper evaluates the islands present electrical energy status, and examines the possibility of further penetration of sustainable energy. Various energy modelling software solutions are examined and evaluated, in order to form scenarios according to the governmental and EU directives for renewable energy sources (RES), as well as to the planned conventional power plant upgrades and LNG transition. RES are fully exploited in the plans scenarios, always taking into account all technical and legislative limitations. Analysis shows that even the most modest and realistic RES implementation scenarios, combined with a partially successful demand restriction, could indeed contract the islands environmental footprint. RES penetration in Cretes electric seems to be able to surpass 30% by 2020, surpassing even the optimistic EU targets for 20% RES by 2020. & 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. General information regarding the island of Crete 1.1. Economy overview Crete is the fourth largest island in the Mediterranean with an area of 8.335 km2 and population that surpasses 600,000 residents. The complex morphology of the island is proven ideal for wind applications, hosting hundreds of ideal sites for wind parks. In parallel, biomass-to-energy systems could play importantand potentially synergisticroles in order to cover its energy needs. Of the potentially CO2-neutral and less polluting energy alternatives that are being seriously considered for large-scale implementation, biomass can both (i) readily supply base-load electrical power and (ii) be converted to liquid transportation

Abbreviations: AC, air conditioning; BAU, business-as-usual; CC, combined cycle; CF, capacity factor; CFL, compact uorescent lighting; CHP, combined heat and power; DSM, demand side management; EER, energy efciency ratio; EU, european union; GDP, gross domestic product; GHG, greenhouse gas; GNP, gross national product; GT, gas turbine; HEP, hydroelectric power plant; HV, high voltage; IEA, international energy agency; IPCC, intergovernmental panel on climate change; IRP, integrated resource planning; IRR, internal rate of return; JRC, Joint Research Center; LNG, liqueed natural gas; LPS, low pressure sodium; MV, medium voltage; O&M, operation and maintenance; PFC, power factor correction; PPC, Public Power Corporation; PSU, pumped storage unit; PV, photovoltaic; PVGIS, photovoltaic geographical information system; RAE, Regulatory Energy Authority; RES, renewable energy sources; SHEP, small hydroelectric power plant; ST, steam turbines; UNFCCC, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Corresponding author: Tel.: +30 2821037825. E-mail address: theocharis.tsoutsos@enveng.tuc.gr (T.D. Tsoutsos). 0301-4215/$ - see front matter & 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.10.055

fuelsand so it will likely be a key part of the solution (Vamvuka and Tsoutsos, 2002). On the contrary, the islands mountainous nature combined with limited water resources in the eastern part and a harsh geological infrastructure, offers quite narrow perspectives for agricultural alternatives, such as energy crops (Zografakis, 2001). High gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates of Crete, almost doubled the gross national product (GNP) growth average, were observed during 19952000. These growth rates tend to adapt to the national rates after the year 2000 (National Statistical Service of Greece, 2006a, b). Table 1 shows that economy is dominated by the tertiary sector (Ministry of Economy and Finance of Greece, 2006), whose growth is based on seasonal activity. The services sector includes the touristic industry consisting of restaurants, commerce, transport and accommodation, as well as permanent residents activity including public and private services, hospitals, universities, nancing, etc. The majority of industrial activity (food industry, olive industry, plastics and quite importantly, power production) is based on the islands indigenous agricultural production with the exception of the energy sector which relies in fossil fuel imports. Industrial activity counts for the 14% of the islands product, facing a decreasing tendency in recent years. Finally, agriculture, which supports the islands industry, contributes only by 8% in the regional GDP. Agricultural activity maintains a growing tendency over the last years (2%), despite the national annual decrease by 1.2%.

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Table 1 GDP per prefecture and activity. 2005 GDP per prefecture (million h)3 Heraklion Commercial activity Public authorities Services (tertiary) Agricultural Industry 3.735 711 4.446 438 776 Lassithi 893 170 1.064 139 152 Rethimnon 903 172 1.075 205 212 Chania 1.741 332 2.072 241 369 Crete 7.272 1.385 8.657 1.023 1.510 64.99 12.38 77.36 9.14 13.49 Fraction on regional GDP (%) 2005 Growth rate (%)

8.1 1.9 3.8

Total GDP

5.660

1.355

1.492

2.683

11.190

100.00

5.8

Values refer to year 2000 prices.

Table 2 GDP growth and forecasts in year 2000 prices. Annual GDP (in million h) 2000 Heraklion Lassithi Rethymno Chania 3.967 1.009 1.103 1.955 2001 4.179 1.096 1.107 2.045 2002 4.665 1.121 1.171 2.146 2003 4.911 1.205 1.243 2.318 2004 5.367 1.284 1.415 2.543 2005 5.660 1.355 1.492 2.683 Linear projections 2015 9.175 2.015 2.293 4.080 2030 14.476 3.019 3.582 6.277 Exponential projections 2015 11.939 2.412 2.844 5.179 2030 36.049 5.733 7.650 13.956

Crete Increment

8.034

8.427 4.66%

9.103 7.43%

9.677 5.93%

10.609 8.79%

11.189 5.18%

17.200

26.542

22.313 6.8%

62.637

Greece Increment

156.514

163.514 4.28%

174.529 6.31%

189.790 8.04%

205.893 7.82%

220.671 6.70%

1.2. The correlation between energy and economy It is an interesting case that of the correlation between power requirements and economic growth, using statistics (historical data) (PPC, 2006). Analysis clearly indexes an exponential growth of historical demand time series. Electric demands tend to rise by 6.0% annually; very similar to the rate in which economy grows (6.8%). By taking a close look to exponential forecasts for years 2015 and 2030 (Table 2), it is rendered clear that electricity production growth rates (6%) must denitely be forced to decrease, due to immense environmental and economical stress posed by the enormous demands. Limiting economic growth is not an option, but establishing sustainable development is considered feasible, mainly by reducing energy intensities on developing activities, in order to balance increased energy demands due to activity growth. Therefore, a positive reaction to economic incentives on energy saving measures applied by the EU, combined with the forthcoming increase in electricity pricing to follow the market deregulation, drives the adoption of a more realistic S curve increase tendency, namely logistic forecast methodology (Fig. 1).

considered safer to be served from resource and production controlled units, such as fossil fuel-based power plants. For years, there have been plans for the connection of the islands grid with the mainlands one; due to difculties caused by the strong undersea streams between Crete and Peloponnese, high depths and seismic activity, as well as the threat of security of supply in extreme conditions, the project has been abandoned (Various, 1998). The islands unique environment and its subsequent growth of the touristic and services sectors come in direct conict with any additional environment stress posed by the increase in fossil fuel use. Therefore, the islands public opinion reacts ercely against the addition of new thermal plants due to their environmental impacts (i.e. in the case of the fossil-fueled power plant of Atherinolakkos), while on the other hand renewable energy sources (RES) tend to be positively assessed by the Cretan people.

1.4. Cretes need for further RES exploitationmain objectives Based on the Greek experience of the last two decades, the delay in implementing RES and energy conservation projects is rather due to more complicated and not always visible reasons, like the use of areas for the installation of RES systems, the legal status of properties, the lack of technical infrastructure, etc. (Papadopoulos et al., 2008; Boulaxis et al., 2005). Since 1994, the private sector has been motivated by the law 2244/94, which allowed independent producers to invest in RES and sell the produced energy at 90% of the consumers price per kWh. This law, together with the subsequent development laws (2234/94, 2601/98 and 3299/04), supported private investment with subsidies that reached 45% of the invested capital, led in a

1.3. The islands special energy prole Cretes demanding electric system is characterized by high demand growth rates and low load factor, so the island experiences power inefciency problems that was provoked by the exceptionally high peak power loads caused by seasonal variations. Based on the networks current infrastructure and autonomous nature, the major part of the produced electricity is

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Fig. 1. Logistic projection of future electric demands.

substantial RES implementation of more than 100 MW of installed capacity by the end of 2005. Unfortunately, this law provided uniform feed-in tariffs, regardless the utilized RES, resulting in the sole realization of wind parks, as the most protable investment, with the exception of a small amount of grid connected photovoltaic (PV) applications. The last RES law, 3468/06 simplies licensing procedures for RES, especially in small-scale applications and simultaneously supports the PV and solar thermal applications by increasing the tariffs to 0.50 and 0.30h/kWh, respectively. As RES installed capacity increases, technical difculties regarding their maximum penetration in the islands system arise. Therefore, careful physical planning must be commissioned to ensure further RES development and to protect the interests of existing and future investors. For this reason, the Regulatory Energy Authority (RAE) has applied strict methodologies, especially for the licensing of new wind parks, and halted since 2003 the fast development of RES in Crete by characterizing the system saturated. This studys main objective is to verify the actual difculties regarding further RES implementation and offer various scenarios in order to maximize sustainable RES contribution, in order to minimize greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and make the island as autonomous as technically possible. In order to achieve these objectives, available methodology was evaluated (Section 2) and historical and future electric needs were analyzed (Section 3). We took a coherent look into the islands current power production and transmission structure (Section 4) and determined the effectiveness of the proposed solutions by screening available RES technologies, estimating available resources and analyzing system integration potential, while keeping track with the current legislative and nancial determinants (Section 5). Finally, results of the implementation schemes are reported in Section 6.

models and accounting frameworks. For the purpose of this study, accounting framework software LEAP will be used as it is considered appropriate given the aspects of Cretes power system as well as the available raw data. 2.1. Optimization models Amongst the important parameters of the optimization models are: (a) that they typically assume that energy cost is the only factor in technology choice and (b) that they apply the questionable fundamental assumption of perfect competition (e.g., perfect competition, no monopolistic practices, no market power, no subsidies and all markets in equilibrium) (Heaps, 2002). Trying to implement this analysis in Cretes monopolistic and inexible energy status can only lead to unrealistic outcomes. 2.2. Simulation models This methodology is considered more appropriate for energy planning in non-ideal communities such as the one under examination as it is not limited by the assumption of the systems optimal behavior or that the energy is the only factor affecting technology choice. However, this methodology tends to be complex and data intensive and hard to parameterize (UNFCCC, 2006). Therefore, due to the fact that crucial parameters required for input are highly abstracted or poorly known, a more exible methodology is needed. 2.3. Accounting frameworks Among their many advantages, accounting frameworks feature simple, transparent and exible interface with lower data requirements than the previous methodologies. They are capable of examining issues that go beyond technology choice or are hard to specify their cost. They also exibly operate regardless the amount of input in parameter completion. User may provide analytical data in categories where they are available, and aggregate categories using assumptions where limited details exist.

2. Available methodologies Various approaches for energy planning and GHG mitigation assessment in the energy sector are offered by applying several available methodologies such as optimization models, simulation

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2.4. Software used for the development of the study: LEAP and more The LEAP software package proves a capable tool for strategic integrated energy and environment scenario studies; its user interface offers a powerful yet friendly, scenario-based, integrated energy-environment model-building tool, using the accounting framework design approach (Heaps, 2002). Through the models main analysis view, the user is able to create custom scenarios with different data structures for the specic area of interest by simulating energy demand and energy conversion, specifying resources and costs, while modeling environmental parameters and impacts.

3. Analyzing the islands electric energy demands 3.1. Synopsis of the total energy demands Thermal power stations in Crete still operate 100% on liquid fuel oil, accounting for the 53% of the total fuel imports on the island. The remainder 47% is mainly used for transport (42%) and industry (5%) (PPC, 2006). This study only contemplates with fuel transformation into electric power. Any direct fuel contribution to transport or thermal energy needs will not be taken into account. In 2005, more than 2.600 GWh where distributed through the transmission grids main substations. Almost half of the produced energy was consumed for the needs of Heraklion, the largest and most populated prefecture of Crete. Another important fraction (25%) serves Chania, while Rethimnon and Lassithi share the remainder. Systems with low load factors such as Crete (54% in 2005) (Table 3, PPC, 2006) tend to be more demanding and expensive to run, as peak load technologies must be employed more frequently. Simultaneously, in order to account with sudden increases in peak load compared to those of previous years, they require higher reserves on easy to dispatch technologies, such as gas turbines (GTs). A breakdown of demands by use of category is presented on Table 4 (National Statistical Service of Greece, 2006a, b). The predominant power amount is consumed by the domestic and commercial sector, where, unfortunately, are the hardest to apply demand side management (DSM) policies, since the

2.5. Additional tools While LEAP was the prime integrated resource planning (IRP) and environmental impact mitigation analysis model used for the development of scenarios included in this work, various additional energy planning tools were used, especially for the technology-specic calculations. The selected tool was the RETscreen International Clean Energy Project Analysis suite. A straightforward analytical spreadsheet based tool, capable of specifying the energy production, life-cycle costs and GHG emissions reductions from every major renewable energy and energy efcient technology available. RETscreen offers a variety of useful modules such as wind, small hydro, PVs, combined heat and power and solar water heating.

Table 3 Annual escalation of energy production and peak load demand (2). Year Energy production GWh Historical production 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1.475 1.562 1.659 1.801 1.925 2.079 2.192 2.301 2.445 2.545 2.654 Increment (%) 5.9 5.8 6.2 8.5 6.0 8.9 5.4 5.0 6.2 4.1 4.3 Peak load demand MW 301.3 317.0 341.8 368.6 407.2 417.7 448.1 505.8 498.4 529.2 560.3 Increment (%) 5.3 5.2 7.8 7.8 10.5 2.6 7.3 12.9 1.5 6.2 5.9 55.9 56.1 55.4 55.8 54.0 56.7 56.8 51.9 56.0 54.7 54.1 Load factor (%)

Linear forecast

2015 2030

3.891 5.724

826 1.226

Exp. forecast

2015 2030

5.016 12.451

6.0

1.088 2.831

6.3

Table 4 Electric energy consumption by category of use for the year 2005. Prefecture Heraklion Lassithi Rethimnon Chania Domestic use 392.879 110.096 96.172 217.774 Commercial use 467.619 130.198 122.779 233.155 Industrial use 134.358 12.165 32.621 47.941 Agricultural use 85.041 49.631 16.505 30.649 Public authorities 89.354 21.588 25.346 56.260 Street lighting 14.737 9.540 5.036 11.013 Total 1183.988 333.218 298.459 596.792

Crete total

816.921

953.751

227.085

181.826

192.548

40.326

2412.457

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level of adoption of energy saving methods depends mainly on self-motivation of individual consumers. On the other hand, self-intrigued industries tend to apply DSM, as it directly reects on their protability. 3.2. Scenario-building on load forecasting We developed different scenarios of load unfolding, results of which will be used to predict annual minimum and maximum loads, in order to model the additional technologies for the power production and transmission. The business-as-usual (BAU) scenario represents changes that are likely to occur in the future, in absence of any new policy measures. BAU provides demands that should verify the accuracy of those logistically forecasted in Section 1.2. Additionally, due to the absence of any DSM policy, the systems load factor does not change. Two scenarios will be formed, which are differentiated by the degree of DSM penetration. Both scenarios exploit any energy saving potential by adopting the available practices and technologies. The more austere, extended DSM scenario also complies with the main EU targets. 3.3. Evaluation of DSM options The modelling methodology used for calculating the evolution of sectoral demands is end-use energy analysis. A typical approach is to disaggregate the available demand data structure into four levels representing sectors, subsectors, end-uses and devices and/or technologies. In LEAPs demand tree structure, each sector or subsector is dened by the basic parameter activity level, which is multiplied by energy intensity to yield overall levels of energy demand e ai where e equals energy demand, a activity level and i end-use energy intensity. 3.4. Agriculture Outdoor cultivations require electricity for water-pumping requirements, while a small fraction of greenhouse cultivations may require additional electricity for heating purposes. It is impossible to specify the exact requirements for heating, as there is not enough data on greenhouse cultivations; still it was possible to aggregate the requirements in a general electricity consuming end-use, using the inverted end-use energy analysis procedure and calculating different energy intensities for each prefecture. Prefectures that account low (Rethimnon) and medium (Chania and Heraklion) energy intensities correspond apparently in fewer greenhouses than, for example, Lassithi which consumes 46 kWh per cultivated hectare. The extended DSMEXT scenario provided up to 30% savings until 2030 on the energy intensity values by decreasing aggregate consumptions proportionally, while Partial DSMPAR scenario forecasts up to 10% savings, assuming only greenhouse intervention. The proposed DSM policy may save up to 306 GWh up until 2030. 3.5. Commercial sector 3.5.1. Overview The commercial sector (touristic, services and commerce) corresponds for almost 40% of the islands total electric demand, but it also grows faster than the rest sectors, similarly to its GDP.

Its activities are seasonal, since they all grow during summertime, affecting the systems load factor negatively. The unprecedented growth of over 8% in the sector in recent years is destined to decrease after the following six years, due to the inevitable saturation in tourism, as well as the expiration of the fourth Community Support Framework. It is estimated that from 2011, Cretes development rates will adapt with the national rates (4%), while after 2020, rates will decrease even more (3%). BAU scenario for the commercial sector follows these activity development rates combined with no DSM program in consideration. Energy intensities will decrease slightly due to the expected upgrades to more energy efcient technologies, combined with the addition of new businesses that immediately purchase new equipment. The partial DSM and extensive DSM scenarios apply measures for reducing energy intensities in the four main categories of use.

3.5.2. Lighting Operational cost reduction supports the penetration of energy saving methods such as effective lighting, as lighting represents more than 20% of the total demand. Since the majority of commercial consumers have already adopted compact uorescent lighting (CFL), further savings may occur by adaptation of natural lighting principles on future buildings, electronic ballasts in older applications, as well as energy saving automation that will save power on non-used sectors of large buildings. Combined application of the above measures may contribute in over 50% savings in commercial buildings (Lampropoulou, 2007). Most of these techniques are easy to apply in new or renovated buildings, but difcult to apply effectively in existing infrastructures. Still, strict legislative measures on new and existing commercial buildings should be applied in order for the island to reach the moderately set target. A realistic target for the extended DSM is set for 40% reduction in energy intensity by 2030; intermediate values were interpolated, starting from 2005.

3.5.3. Air conditioning Air conditioning (AC) accounts for the most determinant activity in the commercial sector, as sales of air conditioning units in Greece, and consequently Crete, are among the highest per capita in the European Union. AC demands for cooling surpasses 30% of the total energy demands during summer months, while a vast majority of businesses in Crete rely on ACs for both heating and cooling requirements. Natural evolution in AC technologies drives a transition to higher average energy efciency ratio (EER) per unit sold. A potential strict labelling scheme would help consumers to easily seek for an efcient AC unit presented in Table 5. An inefcient unit whose efciency equals todays average EER (about 9) should be labelled G class (Various, 1999).

Table 5 Proposed A/C efciency labelling. Label class limits A starts over B starts over C starts over D starts over E starts over F starts over G starts below EER/EERavg (%) 150 140150 130140 120130 110120 100100 100

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3.5.4. Water heating A solar thermal water heating system provides a pay-back period of initial capital of 78 years when no subsidies are given, which many investors consider long and instead choose to minimize the invested capital. This is one of the main reason why, although Greece is amongst the EUs market leaders in solar water heating systems, the commercial sector is used to be unable to follow this trend, representing less than 1% of the total sales (Tsoutsos, 2001; Various, 2001). Fortunately, this proportion changed dramatically after 2000, in levels of 34%, possibly due to the incentives given by the development law. Hotels in Crete seem keener to adapt solar thermal technologies, but statistics are unavailable. 3.5.5. Results Table 6 summarizes the results of DSM practice per scenario in terms of energy intensity. Methodology chosen uses the sectors GDP as an activity level value, as derived from the aforementioned correlation between electricity and economic development. In both DSM scenarios, activity level (GDP) growth rates maintain the same values as those in the BAU scenario, based on the initial assumption that development will not be suppressed in any way, as economy tends to evolve together with technology. Based on our analysis and according to the BAU scenario, in 2030, annual requirements will reach 3.700 GWh, a 300% increase compared to present values. If partial DSM policy is applied, demands will increase by 240% (estimated 3.300 GWh in 2030), saving a total of 5.600 GWh by 2030. If extended DSM is applied, demands will decrease even more (2.700 GWh in 2030). This will save a total of 11.600 GWh by 2030, which equals more than four times the current annual energy demand. These energy savings reect directly on the cumulative GHG emission savings, proving DSM as the starting point of GHG emission mitigation. 3.6. Domestic sector 3.6.1. Introduction Calculating future demand in Cretes domestic sector is probably the hardest task, as the unrelated variables of economic and population growth both affect building construction rates, whose technological characteristics, hence energy intensities, largely vary. The universal adoption of modern, more efcient techniques in new buildings is in direct contradiction to the simultaneous adoption of even more new luxuries. These two opposing parameters are hard to quantify, as is the inexible citizen that is unwilling or unmotivated to take energy saving measures. It may be impossible to dene the consumption intensity of households with low and high incomes, but it is easy to distinguish household energy intensities by their classication as permanent or seasonal, urban or rural. Urbanization in Crete is fast, but still, rural areas keep up their population and development rates, possibly due to the secondary occupation of most Cretans with agriculture, as well as their strong family bondages.
Table 6 Summarizing scenario assumptions for the tertiary sector. Cateogory of use 2005 intensities (in kWh/h of GDP) Current accounts Lighting Air conditioning (heating and cooling) Hot water Other use 0.024 EER9 0.042 0.012 0.042

For seasonal households, a new variant, the intensity factor is introduced, which species the reduction of energy requirements compared to the average urban household, due to partial inhabitation. For each demand category, it will be set as follows: lighting 0.25; refrigeration 0.5; air conditioning (cooling) 0.7; electric heating 0.1; other use 0.25. Table 7 summarizes what will be analyzed in the following paragraphs. 3.6.2. Lighting The domestic sector offers large potential for energy savings in the lighting end-use. Almost 80% of the existing households are using incandescent lamps. Migrating to 100% CFL can be easily and quickly applied by the following proposed methods: (a) increasing the household tariffs; this would decrease the pay-back period of CFL lamps and other energy saving technologies. Adaptation of such solution could even reduce household bills, despite the tariff increases, as energy saving technologies become more widespread; (b) crediting the sales through electricity bills. The consumer reduced initial costs by getting free lamps that are credited by the hardware store through monthly payments in his PPC account; and (c) prohibiting further sales of incandescent lamps; this would simply ensure that every dead incandescent lamp would be exchanged with an efcient one. It can also be combined with the aforementioned crediting policy. Migrating to CFL lamps is not the only method of increasing lighting efciencies on households, but it is safe to rely on this simple exchange methodology, reducing the average households lighting energy intensity by at least 70%. Simultaneously, household activity level will grow according to the 60% of the economic development rates, since houses get bigger and more demanding as average family income increase. 3.6.3. Refrigeration and air conditioning Refrigeration also represents an important fraction of the islands domestic load (10%) (EC, 2007). Consumers will purchase new refrigerators when the existing reaches the end of their life cycle; but in order to lead sales of the most energy efcient units, it is a prerequisite informative campaign into energy saving and labelling. AC, on the other hand, varies in terms of integration between the three household categories. Urban households, due to higher temperatures in urban environments have become oversaturated in ACs as sales conrm (80%), while rural households still use natural cooling methods (25%). Impossible to quantify is the integration of room ACs in seasonal households; we assume a current saturation of 70%, since they are used mainly in summer months. As in refrigeration, the same actions will be taken in both DSM scenarios, as noticeable variations from the BAU predictions driven by retirement of old units and progress in average efciency can prove very hard to implement. 3.6.4. Electric heating The reverse methodology that we applied accounted for energy saving intensities, rather than energy consuming. Electric heating,

End year intensities (in kWh/h of GDP) BAU Unchanged 0.024 EER 13 by 2030 0.0291 10% savings by 2030 0.0108 5% savings by 2020 0.0389 Partial DSM 20% savings by 2030 0.0191 EER 13 by 2020 0.0252 20% savings by 2030 0.0096 10% savings by 2020 0.0351 Extended DSM 40% EER 40% 20% savings by 2030 0.0144 13 by 2015 0.0252 savings by 2030 0.0072 savings by 2020 0.0281

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Table 7 Disaggregated domestic sector demands per category of use for the year 2005, based on the described methodology. Prefecture Number of urban electried households Percentage on prefectures total permanent households (%) Lighting electric demands (MWh) Refrigeration electric demands (MWh) Airconditioning (cooling) demands (MWh) Electric heating demands (MWh) Other use (MWh) Total annual energy demands (MWh) Percentage on total energy requirements (%)

Urban householdscurrent accounts Heraklion 59.850 63 Lassithi 11.614 43 Rethimnon 10.504 41 Chania 25.581 53 Crete 107.549

33.456 6.492 5.872 14.300 60.120

19.930 3.867 3.498 8.518 35.814

55.177 10.707 9.684 23.584 99.152

84.666 16.429 14.859 36.188 152.142

25.313 4.912 4.443 10.819 45.487

218.542 42.408 38.355 93.409 392.714

55.6 10.8 9.8 23.8

Rural householdscurrent accounts Heraklion 35.150 37 Lassithi 15.227 57 Rethimnon 15.190 59 Chania 22.671 47 Crete 83.238

19.649 8.512 8.491 12.673 49.325

11.705 5.071 5.058 7.549 29.383

10.127 4.387 4.376 6.532 25.421

50.372 21.821 21.768 32.489 126.450

14.866 6.440 6.424 9.588 37.319

106.719 46.231 46.118 68.831 267.899

39.8 17.3 17.2 25.7

Seasonal householdscurrent accounts Heraklion 48.245 42 Lassithi 23.393 20 Rethimnon 17.150 15 Chania 26.133 23 Crete 114.921

6.742 3.269 2.397 3.652 16.060

8.033 3.895 2.855 4.351 19.134

38.918 18.871 13.835 21.081 92.705

6.825 3.309 2.426 3.697 16.257

5.101 2.473 1.813 2.763 12.151

65.619 31.818 23.326 35.544 156.308

42.0 20.4 14.9 22.7

Table 8 Energy intensities for domestic heating in urban and rural households, for each scenario. Urban households Current accounts Business as usual 2015 Energy intensity (kWh/household) Solar water heating Central heating and combined hot water Biomass and other non-electric heating Average thermal requirements Average (kWh/household) 2030 Partial DSM scenario 2015 2030 Extended DSM scenario 2015 2030

1.008 2.717 2.100 3.725

35% 45% 35% 100% 1.415

40% 50% 35% 100% 1.228

45% 55% 35% 100% 1.042

45% 55% 35% 100% 1.042

50% 60% 35% 100% 856

45% 60% 35% 100% 906

55% 60% 40% 100% 700

Rural households Solar water heating Central heating and combined hot water Biomass and other non-electric heating Average thermal requirements Average (kWh/household)

1.008 2.717 2.100 3.725

35% 25% 60% 100% 1.415

35% 30% 55% 100% 1.402

40% 35% 50% 100% 1.321

40% 30% 60% 100% 1.247

45% 35% 60% 100% 1.061

45% 35% 60% 100% 1.061

50% 40% 60% 100% 874

was assumed as the worst heating option, while central, biomass and solar water heating are reducing intensities by contributing with negative intensity values (Table 8). According to the results on RETscreens Bioheat module, for a heating degree-day limit of 18 1C, the averagely insulated Cretan household requires 3.725 kWh annually, in order to maintain the desired room temperatures and satisfy hot water demands. Electric heaters provide 100% thermal efciency, so the heating demands also correspond to 3.725 kWh annually (Tsoutsos et al., 2007). Urban and rural households differ mostly in terms of room heating options; central heating, which is commonly combined with hot water, is found in more than 45% of the urban households while only in the 1/4th of rural households (National Statistical Service of Greece, 2006a, b). Biomass heating is widely used in rural areas, but in the urban environment it is only adopted in luxurious households. Finally, detailed data exists regarding solar 2 water heating appliances (Tsoutsos, 2001); over 250,000 m of operational solar thermal systems are installed in the domestic

sector, enough for supplying solar hot water in more than 105,000 households, reaching a saturation factor of 35%. We considered the same fraction for all three household categories. Further saving with improvements on the overall thermal efciency of the average household could exploit a huge energy saving potential, but this DSM option was not studied, since it is easier to emphasize in retro-t possibilities (Lytras, 2007). Finally, in seasonal households, urban intensity values will be used, multiplied by a seasonal intensity factor of 0.1.

3.6.5. Results Energy demand for each scenario is projected up until 2030. The two most important assumptions in order to accomplish the forecast are: (a) the end-year urbanization value (that reects for how many rural households have been reaching consumption characteristics of the average urban household) and (b) the activity level increase (which reects the growth in quantity, size and comforts of the domestic sector).

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160 155 150 145 140 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

Urban\Refrigeration Urban\Other Uses Urban\Lighting Urban\Heating Demands Urban\Air Conditioning Rural\Refrigeration Rural\Other Uses Rural\Lighting Rural\Heating Demands Rural\Air Conditioning 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

Gigawatt-Hours

Fig. 2. LEAPs exported results. Extended DSM applied in constant and increasing household activity for the Chania prefecture.

In Fig. 2, the left graph is exported by a sub-scenario of extended DSM that assumes no increase in the number of urban households, in order to compare the DSM results in terms of energy intensity; the right graph depicts just how successfully the extended DSM practice balances the forecasted increase of household activity. In contrary to the commercial sector, where the requirements increased by over 300% in the BAU scenario, the domestic sector appears self-restrained, showing increases of just 77%. This is caused primarily by the huge saving potential that the domestic sector offers, which, together with the expected technological improvements, balances the difculty of DSM implementation due to the lack of motivation. Conclusively, DSM restrains consumption growths even more to increase levels lower than 45%. 3.7. Industry It appears that Heraklion industry is the most energy demanding (0.16 kWh/h of GDP) in contradiction with Lassithi (0.07 kWh/h of GDP) in terms of energy intensity. Industrial consumers are usually medium voltage (MV) customers who are offered discounted charges for low load factors and special night tariffs. By these means, DSM is being conducted internally through the industrys logistic optimization for maximum prot. Potential for substantial energy savings in industries is found in terms of power factor correction (PFC) for the elimination of apparent power delivered to the load. We have set general targets for 5% and 10% savings until 2030 for partial and extended DSM, respectively, always in terms of energy intensity. 3.8. Public authorities Public authorities comprise mainly of buildings with ofces, corridors and conference halls, which mainly demand lighting, AC and electronic device operation (computers, printers, etc.) loads. Public hospitals are large power consumers for medical devices, classied in the other use category. The DSM options that were considered in our scenario-building were identical to those of the commercial sector (Section 3.5). Applying these measures is easier in public authorities, if drastic, straightforward measures are proposed and guided by energy planning and evaluation organizations such as the Regional Energy Agency of Crete.

Fig. 3. Cretes total demand evolution as calculated by LEAP.

3.9. Street lighting According to calculations based on the given annual consumptions, a total of 70,000 street-lighting devices operate during the night (37% sited in Heraklion, 27% in Chania, 24% in Lassithi and 12% in Rethimnon). The average device found in the regions streets uses low pressure sodium (LPS) vapor technology, offering an efciency of up to 200 Lumens/W. Electronic communicating ballasts are dimming the lamps intelligently when less lighting is required (middle of the night in industrial and commercial zones for instance). Moreover, they consume 45 W, while usual magnetic ballast consume up to 20 W. Use of this type of ballasts may reduce electric demands by over 40%. In extended DSM, the set target will be the integration of electronic ballasts on all existing devices until 2030, offering savings of 40%. In partial DSM, the 2030 target will be half the savings, as of 20%.

3.10. Results Fig. 3 sums up benets in terms of power savings for the entire island. It appears that end-year demands are signicantly lower than the logistic projection (Section 1.2). If no DSM practice is

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applied, demands will reach 6.900 GWh, which is 30% lower than logistically forecasted. This is justied by the inevitable introduction of energy saving technologies in the BAU scenario as the result of an emphasis given on efciency from manufacturers worldwide. DSM restrains growths even further; only 5.100 GWh will be consumed in 2030 according to the extended DSM scenario, which will save an extra 27% of energy annually and a total of 21,000 GWh until 2030. This counts for 8,5 years of system demand in present terms.

4. Analyzing the systems current transmission and generation structure 4.1. Transmission network in Crete The transmission network in Crete is constructed by 150 kV single and double circuit high voltage (HV) lines as well as 66 kV medium-high voltage lines. The power is distributed into the 20 kV medium voltage (MV) grid by fteen 150/20 kV substations. Cretes long and complicated MV network is the main cause for losses reaching the 7.4% of the islands net energy production (PPC, 2006) A total of 600 km of HV grid (Fig. 4) are connecting the islands major cities and power plants but some of the most touristic and demanding areas, especially in the prefecture Chania, rely solely on the MV lines. It is clear that an optimization of the network is of maximum importance. 4.2. Existing main units The major proportion of the power demand in Crete is currently fullled by PPCs fossil fuel-operated generators (Table 9). The PPCs 26 power units are allocated between the three main power stations: in Linoperamata (city of Heraklion), in Ksylokamara (Chania, which is the rst PPC station to gain an ISO 14000 certicate) and in Atherinolakkos (Lassithi prefecture). The merit order of the units is set according to technological limitations and production costs. The rst units to enter the system are the steam turbines (STs) and the combined cycle (CC) at their technical minimums. This occurs as a result of the latency in start up of a steam thermal unit. Once a ST starts, it should be kept in its technical minimum in order to be able to output even

more power immediately when required, resulting in very high capacity factors (CFs) (i.e. 70% for the Linoperamata steam turbines). The following technology to be dispatched in Cretes system are the two stroke diesel engines, which offer even lower consumptions and require lower quality fuel, especially compared to the Chania CC. This also justies the high CF in which these diesel engines operate (more than 70%). Finally, the units to dispatch only in peak load conditions are the gas turbines (GTs), which only combust high quality fuel (diesel oil or natural gas) and output high ue gas temperatures, resulting in average thermal efciencies and high production costs.

Table 9 Available power units in the islands system, during the year 2005. Power production units Steam turbine and CC units Linoperamata steam (6 units) Chania CC (3 units) Capacity (MW) Gross production (MWh)

111.2 133.4

685.3237 477.3700

Total

111.2

685.3237

Diesel units Linoperamata (4 units) Atherinolakkos (2 units)

49.2 102.0

260.3570 649.3347

Total

151.2

909.6918

Gas turbine units Linoperamata (5 units) Ksylokamara (6 units)

123.8 221.6

111.9296 296.1408

Total

478.8

408.0704

Renewables production Small hydro-electric Wind parks Photovoltaics

0.6 105.9 0.4

832.0 267.5797 270.0

Total

106.5

268.4117

Overall total

847.7

2748.8675

Fig. 4. Cretes electric network structure, including HV transmission lines.

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4.3. Wind energy The majority of existing wind parks in Crete can be found in Lassithi, in eastern, where numerous sites experience average wind speeds exceeding 10 m/s (Christakis, 2002). PPC made a head start before year 2000 with ve wind parks of a total capacity of 16.8 MW, in Itanos Municipality, Lassithi. Since the market deregulation, PPC and independent producers have been licensed for an extra 195.5 MW of wind capacity (20), from which only 105 MW are in operation (January 2006).

4.4. Other existing RES potential A small hydroelectric power plant (SHEP) is designed to be cost-effective in terms of installation and to operate on its natural-maximum load factor. SHEPs operate without the use of a large reservoir and thus do not affect natural environment. In Crete, only two SHEPs operate in Almyros and Aghia, both constructed and owned by PPC; a third one is under studying in the Potamos Dam. The reported average capacity factor for the two plants is 15.8%. Very few PV instalments (fewer than 500 kWp in total) were realized from independent producers under the law 2244/94, which unfortunately promoted selling of the produced energy to PPC at a very low price. In any case, current PV share is dramatically low compared to the islands potential.

Fig. 5. System annual duration curvepresent situation.

4.5. Unit dispatch schedule Unit dispatch priority is based on the admission that base load units should be kept in their technical minimum, in order to operate efciently all year round. STs in Linoperamata have a technical minimum in 47% of the units rated power, while the Chania CC operates in a minimum of 36% (RAE, 2006). Further dispatch occurs by ascending production cost, simultaneously taking into account the load undertaking rate ability and the switching-on required time interval of units. SHEP, PV and wind power must be absorbed in priority, directly after the base load units minimum output. PV and SHEP are in this case disregarded, since their contribution to the annual load duration curve is limited. As load increases, reaching the annual average load (330 MW in 2005), both steam turbines and diesel units operate in adequate capacity to satisfy demand. Finally, GTs involve when demand peaks during summer months and major holidays. Fig. 5 is the systems annual load duration curve, the most representing gure for a systems load shape, energy mixture and process priority. The wind fraction of the graph is calculated by multiplying the wind turbine nominal capacity value by its CF and considered as a permanently operating unit, simulating a base load unit on the system. In order to ensure realistic results, excess electricity rejection during low-demand periods is considered. Although not depicted in the duration curve, a fraction of diesel engines may also operate in their technical minimum. Their contribution on base load varies in correlation with power demand. For example, in low consumption hours 7.0008.760, where wind output may suddenly halt, only STs are required in standby; in medium-high demand hours 1.5003.000 though, all diesel units must be in standby. The remaining capacity of 211 MW comprises the systems 37% reserve margin. This reserve margin for Cretes autonomous system is considered ideal, as just over 30% is sufcient for maximum stability and security.

4.6. Fuel mixture and emissions In the Cretan autonomous grid system, 57% of the produced energy comes from residual oil used in diesel and ST units and another 33% is delivered by the combustion of diesel oil combusted in the GT and CC units. Finally, just 10% of the total energy is produced by RES. Fuel consumption varies through different units, even between those using the same fuel and pollution control techniques, as the nal value is determined by the specic units efciency. In order to calculate actual emissions and specify RES implementation savings, we will characterize each fuel in terms of gas emissions per unit of thermal value consumed, divided by the corresponding unit efciency. In average, residual oil, which is exclusively used in base load units, contributes similarly to diesel in CO2 emissions. On the opposite, diesel is proven cleaner in terms of SO2 and NOx. Given the demand growth expected in the following years, this studys set target was to minimize emissions by maximizing RES contribution in the natural resource mixture. We estimated CO2 and NOx avoided emissions, which are presented in the following chapters.

5. Migrating into cleaner energy sources and higher RES penetration 5.1. Energy policy development Energy policy development follows the national RES guidelines set by the Ministry of Development and RAE. The enthralling incentives given by the development law (3299/04) and RES law (3468/06) suggest hard competition between private investors, resulting in even more mature and consistent implementations. The predestined transition of PPCs conventional plants into cleaner energy fuels such as liqueed natural gas (LNG) and even more efcient technologies (i.e. advanced combined cycle units) is also examined. Finally, pumped storage units (PSUs) are proposed

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in a separate scenario in order to achieve an even higher wind penetration margin in the islands system and also increase its reserve margin. A summary of the main targets of the adopted energy policy in this study follows: (a) direct increase of production capacity, giving priority to RES, in order to satisfy the additional energy demand in the following years; (b) ensuring an adequate reserve margin, capable of dealing with suddenly increased peak loads, while simultaneously minimizing the recurring use of the reserve units; (c) decentralizing the system by adding RES units in scattered locations, preferably near consumption areas, therefore, reducing transmission losses and adding to local development in a sustainable way and (d) full exploitation of the available natural resources in a protable and environment-caring way; key resources for Crete which can be directly used through mature technologies are considered wind, solar, hydro and biomass. 5.2. Expansion and alternative fuels for controllable resource units 5.2.1. Methodology approach In the following paragraphs, we examine the evolution in Cretes thermal plants. New technologies and power stations are considered exogenous capacity additions, while power upgrades through expanded units in existing stations appear as endogenous additions, which will be deployed by the model, whenever it is considered necessary to increase capacity reserve margin. We emulate transition to LNG for each process according to our forecasts and assumptions. Importing LNG in Crete aims to eliminate SO2, NOx and ying ashes which deteriorate nearby environment. Still, unlike RES, in terms of thermal pollution and CO2 emissions, LNG only offers small advantages over fuel oil. 5.2.2. PPCs existing power plants Atherinolakkos, the newest PPC station, is planned for additional 93 MW of GT capacity; migration to LNG is temporarily out of the question; it would be safe to consider LNG adaptation after 2020, since priority will be given to the near-city stations of Chania and Linoperamata. Regarding Linoperamata, the Heraklion station, PPC intends to transfer all the existing GT units to the upcoming Corakies station. Old units will be replaced and new ones will be added according to the indenite emergency demand coverage license acquired by RAE, until the Corakies station nally starts operating. Heavy oilburning STs and diesel engines will be discontinued by their estimated end of life. There are no plans for retirement of existing units and reduction of capacity on the Chania thermal station. On the opposite, PPC intends to replace units at the end of their lifespan and possibly add new GT and CC units to cope with increased demands. Evolution of the plant is bound to persist at least until the 300 MW Corakies station is expected to enter the system. Chania will adopt LNG quite possibly concurrently with Linoperamata, after 2015. 5.2.3. The Corakies future station During the previous decade, the erection of a new thermal power station that would replace the degrading Linoperamata plant was heavily discussed. The Corakies location (in between Rethimnon and Heraklion) was nally selected as it combines some key advantages. Although the area suffers from difculties in the construction of the docking station due to steep depths, this new station will boast a capacity of at least 350 MW, which will comprise of CC and gas turbine units.

In terms of fuel use, it is expected that the units will be using LNG, which will be imported after 2010 due to the difculties in the installation of an LNG terminal station in the island; till then Corakies units will operate with low-sulfur residual fuel oil. 5.2.4. LNG terminal facility LNG, has been discussed for years as the ultimate imported resource that would solve the environmental problem, based on the appropriate siting a LNG terminal (Kapros, 2006), which affects the cost of the entire project, since, among others, it determines the course and size of LNG transfer pipes. A study conducted in 2004, proposes an implementation solution that would include LNG storage in 160,000 m3 tanks and transportation though ships which would not require a docking bay. The solution would provide up to 900 million m3 of LNG annually, satisfying a total of 900 MW of installed capacity in CC-based operation (Katsaprakis and Christakis, 2004). The same study reports that direct adaptation of LNG would be 15% cheaper in terms of overall running costs, at 78h/MWh produced from LNG vs. 91.5h/MWh from fuel oil, in 2006 prices. Concluding, we will set 2012 as an optimistic yet achievable target for LNG adoption. In the following three years, the constructed pipelines are expected to supply LNG to Chania and Heraklion, and required modications in equipment will allow all units to operate on LNG. Finally, after 2020, it is possible that Atherinolakkos will also be powered by LNG. 5.3. Wind power, evolution 5.3.1. Feasibility and economic evaluation The RETscreen wind module was used to conduct our feasibility analysis on new wind energy applications in the island. We considered a minimum average wind speed of 8.5 m/s, as projects in locations that fall below this set limit fail to get licensed; another important design parameter in autonomous grids is the parks minimum CF, which should be at least 27.5%. The CF is in no direct correlation to the average wind speed, since up to 25% of the annual production is being rejected (Kaldellis et al., 2004). In fact, as was proven by the modules sensitivity analysis overview, these two parameters are some of the most crucial in terms of internal rate of return (IRR) and pay-back period indicators. Feed-in tariffs and escalation rates were in accordance to law 3468/06, while the funding scheme follows track of law 3299/04, with 50% subsidies and 25% debt ratio. Costs for a complete turnkey wind park, including wind turbine foundation and erection, road construction, transmission line, substation, control and O&M buildings and transportation costs were calculated at 1.400h/kWe for mid-range instalments. System O&M costs were set at 0.025 h/kWh produced by the wind turbines. Financial summary unveiled rewarding results; pre tax IRR of 21.0% in terms of invested capital and simple pay-back period of 5.2 years can be characterized as prosperous. It is, therefore, certain that many, even more fruitful implementations will be achieved if: (a) wind speeds surpass 9 m/s, (b) much cheaper material is assured, (c) O&M costs are reduced by optimization and most importantly and (d) smaller amounts of electricity are rejected. 5.3.2. Wind penetration potential Regulations on the determination of wind penetration potential in autonomous islands are based on the following basic admissions: (a) technical minima of the incorporated conventional production units must never be breached; this measure ensures that no excess electricity resolving from polluting fossil

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fuels is produced and (b) total wind capacity must not exceed a certain fraction of the total controllable production units capacity; this is limited to 30% for Crete in order to preserve the capability of compensating through conventional units for the frequency uctuations, due to sheer variations in wind power output. Contracts between PPC and independent wind power producers limit wind absorption to 30% of the operating units nominal capacity in hourly basis, giving PPC the authority of discarding excess wind power. The higher the wind penetration gets, the more electricity gets rejected during low consumption periods, as is conrmed by recent studies resulting in lower annual productions, hence incomes for producers. From an environmental point of view, the set limit might be considered conservative, as results show that wind contribution in the annual energy mixture are still low, but studies carried out by RAE show that limitations are rather reasonable. In 2005, Cretes wind production achieved a disappointing CF of 28.8%, which is set to decrease even below the set limits, as licensed projects are brought to life. RAE intends to license future wind parks judging by the systems viable capacity; this indicator is set as the fraction of the islands average load that if implemented though new wind parks, will result in the minimal CF of 27.5%, preserving viability of existing instalments. A simple tactic for increasing penetration is scattering wind parks between different locations in all of Cretes territories. Except from decreasing transmission losses and frequency drops, this decentralization approach utilizes the wide differentiation of wind conditions throughout the island, resulting in a more uniform allocation of wind output. This tactic was applied by RAE recently, as most wind parks due for implementation within 2007 and 2008 are set in different, unexploited locations (RAE, 2003). Even more recent simulations were conducted by RAE using, instead of one wind time series, three independent but simultaneous time series of 8.5 m/s average wind speed. The results showed that the system is far from saturated, ensuring at least 50 MW of safe wind capacity additions. Another more aggressive tactic is the storage of the excess electricity through PSUs. Specic case studies (Georgiadis et al., 2002) have shown that the addition of a PSU that equals the islands wind capacity that can drive to safe penetration of wind capacity to an hourly fraction of 36.4%, whereas current limit of 30% without a PSU is considered critical for the systems stability. Determination of size, cost and economic viability of the plant are mainly depending on the location and the hydraulic head between the two reservoirs. PSUs is examined separately through a special scenario, allowing for higher wind penetration in terms of installed capacity and simultaneously, overall CF increase due to excess energy utilization.

caused by three important variables: (a) high-production credit at 0.50 h/kWh, (b) possibility of connecting at low voltage distribution lines and (c) ease of authorization by facilitated licensing procedures. Costs for a complete turnkey PV park of 100 kWp, including modules, mounting structures, inverters, land formation and other essentials are estimated around 6.000 hkWp based on current prices. Financial summary, using a similar funding scheme to the one seen previously in wind parks resulted in pre tax IRR of 29.0% and a simple pay-back period of 3.4 years, again in terms of invested capital. It seems unquestionable that immense interest will be shown by private investors, which will be attracted by the protability and ease of implementation of PV systems; therefore, all set targets for solar penetration in the island will be easily accomplished. 5.4.2. Penetration potential Reports (RAE, 2007) showed that PV adaptation up to 15% of the average system load interferes minimally with the obtained wind capacity factor, reducing it only by 0.51.0%. According to the same source, total RES maximum hourly penetration limit should increase up to 35% after the addition of PV units in wind-saturated islands. This policy will ensure that the operating units technical minima will not be breached on a 99% probability. For year 2007, RAE and the Ministry of Development have proclaimed a total of 49 MW on PV licenses, which correspond to the 15% of the estimated year 2006 average loads. RAE intends to keep licensing PV parks accordingly, as system loads increase during the following years. According to LEAPs BAU demand calculations, our adopted policy will consider a total capacity of 140 MWp up to 2030. 5.5. Small hydro Unlike solar technologies, law 3468/06 did not provide any additional production credit for hydro-produced electricity, yet it simplies licensing procedures by granting application exempts for applications smaller than 40 kWe. Unfortunately, given the islands total needs, only considerably sized SHEPs can noticeably contribute to its energy status. An important number of sites are suitable for exploitation in the scale of 0.510 kMWe. For the needs of our plan, we examined a total of 30 MWe of SHEPs until 2030. Economic analysis cannot be investigated as observed CFs may vary dramatically between locations and historical hydraulic data for credible locations cannot be obtained. 5.6. Biomass Among the potentially CO2-neutral and less polluting energy alternatives that are being seriously considered for large-scale implementation, biomass offers (a) controllable base-load electrical power depending on annual biomass supply and (b) possibility to be converted into liquid transportation fuels; therefore, it could become a key part of the solution (Vamvuka and Tsoutsos, 2002). Several plans have been formulated, suggesting that biomass residues can substitute a large part of conventional fuels. Most of these technologies are mature and can be embodied in the Cretan energy system that contribute in the local-regional development and create new jobs (Umealu et al., 1991). Exploitation of biomass will be based (a) on the islands major agricultural residues such as olive kernel, citrus fruits and grapes, (b) tree branches and (c) forestry biomass. In order

5.4. Solar power, photovoltaic revolution 5.4.1. Feasibility and economic evaluation Crete offers excellent solar potential; solar data for the island is acquired by the PV geographical information system (PVGIS) created by the European Commissions Joint Research Centre (JRCPVGIS). PVGIS calculates more than 4.8 kWh/m2/day of average solar irradiation at optimal angle (281) for the largest part of Crete, which equals to 1.600 kWh/kWp of xed crystalline silicon modules including ambient temperature losses. Corresponding PV system CF is 15.1% for a xed panel setup, while two-axis tracking systems are capable of increasing it to 19.6%. In terms of scale, a medium range non-tracked PV park will be examined, as investment interest peaks at 100 kWp, which is

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to implement a large-scale CHP application, ensuring the uninterrupted resource availability via contracting and nding a strategic location near a populated area is compulsory. Studies regarding the islands endogenous biomass potential have shown that, even with low-source retrieval factors of agricultural residues, instalments of the 10 MWe scale are possible near the agricultural areas, such as Heraklios Messara. Intense exploitation of all sources beyond residues with increased retrieval factors may result up to 60 MWe, in different locations around Crete. For the needs of our model, we have set this target to be accomplished in 2025; implementation shall be concluded in 10 MWe steps, starting from 2010.

6. Modelling and implementation 6.1. Scenario formation on power generation For reference purposes, we initially examined the RES implementation policy using BAU load status, so we compare implementation results with forecasts that use the current energy mixture. The RES scenario applies all RES and LNG penetration plans in accordance with EU and National targets, as well as remote network and national security regulations. Furthermore, the same RES policy is enhanced by the addition of PSU hydroelectricity (PSU scenario). Finally, the RES and PSU scenarios are also examined in conjunction with extended DSM (EXT scenario) load status; this incorporates the most aggressive GHG mitigation course of action that this study has to offer. An overview of the described scenario structure is seen in Fig. 6.

6.2. Power generation simulation 6.2.1. Endogenous and exogenous capacities Exogenous capacity values reect existing capacities as well as planned capacity additions and retirements. New power plants, such as Corakies and new technologies, such as CC in the Atherinolakkos plant are set implicitly in a user-dened period. New controllable RES plants, such as biomass CHP, or lowcontribution applications such as SHEPs, are also applied exogenously, as their set capacity could not interfere with system safety limits. Endogenous capacity values are calculated in order to maintain a minimum planning reserve margin. Existing thermal plant unit expansions are set as endogenous potential, leaving the model to judge for the launch period. RES unit additions also appear only as endogenously calculated capacity.

Fig. 6. Scenario relationship schematic.

Fig. 7. Energy generation annual outputs for the BAU + RES scenario.

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6.2.2. Planning reserve margin and capacity credit It is considered ideal to maintain a high-reserve margin in an isolated grid, since designing peak capacity based on hourly load monitoring is insufcient considering instantaneous load variations. A reserve margin of at least 30% ensures power quality during peak load hours. Capacity credit is the main parameter used for calculating endogenous capacity additions. The capacity value is dened as the fraction of the rated capacity considered rm for the purposes of calculating the system reserve margin. For thermal power plants, the value is normally 100%. Lower values of 30% are used for intermittent sources such as wind and hydro, reecting their

lower average availability (Heaps, 2002). PVs, output of which is considered to peak during increased-consumption hours, get an 80% capacity credit.

6.2.3. Dispatch rules and maximum availability The majority of processes are dispatched hierarchically, according to their merit order. Processes with the lowest value merit order are dispatched rst (base load units) and those with the highest merit order are dispatched last (peak load, reserve units). Processes with equal merit order are dispatched together in proportion to their available capacity. STs and CCs, as well as the

Table 10 Electricity generation processesall variablesRES and PSU scenario. Exogenous capacity up to 2030 (MW) 200.0 221.6 123.8 100.0 100.0 85.4 58.9 102.0 49.2 0.2 105.9 30.0 60.0 80.0 80.0 48.0 52.3 Endogenous capacity margin 300.0 100.0 300.0 Limited Limited Limited 240.0

Efciency (%)

First simulationyear 2010 2006 2006 2010 2010 2006 2006 2006 2006 2010 2006 2006 2006 2010 2010 2010 2006 2006

LNG introduct.year 2012 2015 2015 2012 2020 2015 2020 2012 2020 2015

Merit order

Maximum availability (%) 50 25 25 95 90 90 70 85 70 100 16 29 20 95 95 95 95 95

Capacity credit (%) 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 80 30 30 100 100 100 100 100

COR gas turbines CHA gas turbines LIN gas turbines COR CC rest ATH CC rest CHA CC rest LIN ST rest ATH diesel LIN diesel Pumped storage Photovoltaics Wind parks Small hydro Biomass CHP CORCC min ATH CC min CHA CC min LIN ST min

42.5 42.5 42.5 51.5 51.5 51.5 30.0 45.0 40.0 80.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 22.5 51.5 51.5 51.5 31.0

6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1

Fig. 8. RES and thermal capacity additions and corresponding reserve margin for the BAU+RES scenario.

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proposed biomass plant operate as base load units and, therefore, are granted merit order 1. Implicitly for these units, only their technical minimums have priority over renewables. RES production is granted 2, while PSU hydro gets 3 as it operates on excess renewable electricity. Diesel units, which offer lower

productions costs are ordered 4. The rest of STs and CC gets a dispatch priority number 5, due to high fuel costs compared to diesel units. Finally, peak load gas turbines are granted 6. Maximum availability is the LEAP expression for describing a process CF. It is the ratio of the maximum energy annually

Fig. 9. Renewable energy delivered annually for the BAU+RES scenario.

Fig. 10. Renewable energy delivered annually for the BAU+PSU scenario.

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produced to what would have been produced, if the process ran at full capacity. For RES technologies, maximum availability reects the overall CF. In the case of a PSU unit, maximum availability can be estimated by the excess RES power produced annually, in reference to the units capacity (Fig. 7).

6.2.4. Generation process overview A visual overview of the generation process according to the simulation can be found in Table 10 and Figs. 811.

7. Results and conclusions 7.1. Fuel consumption In order to successfully compare between scenarios, we screened fuel consumption in terms of energy content (Figs. 11, 12, 13) (IPCC, 1996; IEA, 1999). Observed drops in fuel consumption for 2010 and 2015 correspond to the implementation of higher efciency units and discontinuation of older units. It can be said that applied measures were proven quite drastic in terms of reducing the amount of fuel energy required. Especially in the case of extended DSM and maximum RES
Fig. 13. Fuel consumption in terms of energy contentEXT+PSU scenario.

penetration (EXT+PSU) scenario, fuel requirements appear to be almost constant up until 2030. 7.2. Environmental loading In an attempt to designate each fuels contribution to the global warming phenomenon, the GHG emission factor was used (Table 11). According to the models output implementing RES and cleaner fuels, though proposed planning in the RES scenario will save 50% of annual emissions by 2030, cumulatively saving more than 30 million CO2eq ts, during this 24 year period (Fig. 14). Further load shaving actions such as extended DSM (EXT), combined with maximized RES penetration (PSU), results in even higher GHG savings of 66% annually. These savings correspond to 40 million CO2eq ts savings from 2006 to 2030. 7.3. Conclusions Analysis shows that even the most modest and realistic RES implementation scenario, combined with a partially successful demand restriction, could indeed mitigate the islands environmental burdening. Not only exaggerated power demands can be tackled, but also actual emissions can be held down to current levels, without noticeably obstructing the economic growth in the following decades. EU targets for 2020 appear to be achievable by 2015, mainly as a result of the new wind farms and PVs which are expected to be licensed before 2012. After this steep increase, we expect a balanced and rm increase of RES up to 30% in 2030, in par or surpassing EUs targets. Feasibility and economic viability of the proposed renewable projects is safeguarded through the recent law for the development of RES, in conjunction with the 4th Community Support Framework. This new reality drives the motivation of private capital with adequate incentives ensuring high investment return rates. In any case, it is not only a simple matter of political willingness and committee grants to override obstacles that may hold back benecial development. Various other problems must be tackled, such as: (a) the lack of technical infrastructure for supporting new investments, (b) problems concerning the legal status of properties and (c) obstacles with the use of areas suitable for the installation of new RES units in conjunction with the absence of special land use planning.

Fig. 11. Fuel consumption in terms of energy contentBAU+REF scenario.

Fig. 12. Fuel consumption in terms of energy contentBAU+PSU scenario.

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Table 11 sume . Fuel global warming potential re Fuel kgCO2eq/TOE Natural gas Diesel oil Residual fuel oil CO2 emission factor CH4 emission factor N2O emission factor GHG emission factor

2.066,20 2.902,57 3.102,66

0,152 0,079 0,120

0,0379 0,0791 0,0797

2,081 2,928 3,129

Notes: 1t of CH4 equals 21t of CO2 in global warming potential (IPCC, 1996). 1t of N2O equals 310t of CO2 in global warming potential (IPCC, 1996).

Fig. 14. Greenhouse gas emissions summary for every major scenario.

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