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THE JOURNAL OF ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT

Rania Ben Hamida,

Electricity Consumption and Industrial Gross Domestic Product Nexus in Sfax: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach,
Volume 38, Number 2

Copyright 2013

ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION AND INDUSTRIAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT NEXUS IN SFAX: AN ARDL BOUNDS TESTING APPROACH
Rania Ben Hamida*

Introduction he study of the relationship between the level of development of a country and energy consumption is a debate that has piqued the interest of economists and has been advanced and expanded upon over time. Since the 1970s, the number of surveys examining the causal relationship between economic development and energy consumption has increased for both developed and developing nations. However, the research on African countries and especially in North Africa is limited. In fact, empirical studies on nations like Tunisialet alone that countrys second largest city of Sfaxare almost nonexistent. Prior academic findings have shown that the causal relationship between economic growth and energy consumption differs from one country to another through time. The majority of previous studies have used the residual-based cointegration test of Engle and Granger and the maximum likelihood test based on S. Johansen and S. Johansen and K. Juselius.1 However, these cointegration techniques may not be appropriate when the sample size is too small and when the variables do not have the same order of integration.2

*Rania Ben Hamida, a Ph.D. candidate in economics at the Faculty of Economics and Management (MODEVI), University of Sfax, Tunisia, earned a masters degree in economics from the same institution and a B.A. in accounting from the Business School of Sfax. This paper draws from thesis research the author undertook at the Faculty of Economics and Management of Clermont-Ferrand (University of Auvergne, France) at the Center for Studies and Research on International Development (CERDI). Her research focuses on energy and the environment. The Journal of Energy and Development, Vol. 38, Nos. 1 and 2 Copyright 2013 by the International Research Center for Energy and Economic Development (ICEED). All rights reserved.

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Unlike the previous academic works, the current analysis investigates the intertemporal causal relationship between energy consumption and economic development in Sfax using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. The study uses one proxy for energy consumption, namely, medium-voltage electricity consumption (EC) consumed in the industrial sector and one proxy for economic development, namely, the gross domestic product (GDP) from industrial manufacturing. This paper is composed of three sections. The first gives an overview of the economic and energy situation in Sfax, Tunisia. Section two presents the literature review. The final section provides the empirical model specification, the estimation technique, and the empirical analysis of the regression results.

An Overview of the Economic and Energy Situation in Sfax Sfax is Tunisias second largest city after the capital of Tunis from a demographic perspective; in 2009, it had an estimated total national population of 917,000 inhabitants, which equates to about 8.5 percent of the total population.3 This historic coastal city of nearly 235 square kilometers is geographically positioned between the central and southern parts of the country, giving it a prominent role in the national and international exchange of products. In the past, the economy of Sfax was highly dependent on olive oil, fishing, and phosphates. However, since the 1960s the city has witnessed a significant economic change with the proliferation of small- and medium-sized manufacturing, the rapid development of the tertiary sector, and the diversification of the agricultural sector. Sfax is the top producing city in Tunisia. It produces an average of 40 percent of the nations olive oil and 30 percent of the almonds. Industry employs 25 percent of the labor force.4 The numbers of companies employing more than 10 workers have reached 756 units (36 percent of total Tunisian firms). Exporting companies account for 25 percent of the industrial sector and represent 43 percent of employment. Clothing and textiles industries ranked 68.2 percent, indicating specialization and sectorial concentration for regional industrial fabrics, followed by the agro-food sector with 15.1 percent. The wholly export-oriented industrial enterprises are held to a maximum of 73 percent Tunisian ownership and the remainder owned by French partners. These enterprises participate with 11 percent to employment to which is added 3 percent representative of the French partners associated with non-Tunisian nationals. Also advantageous for the Sfax economy is the development of its fossil-fuel energy resources and, in particular, oil. A number of offshore oil fields are being developed: there are 13 fields identified of which 12 are operational. These upstream developments have caught the attention of a number of international energy companies.

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In addition to oil development, Sfax is benefiting from the commercialization of its natural gas resources. The most important of these is the Miskar gas field, considered to be the first gas field discovered in Tunisia, which is owned by British Gas Company. Located offshore of Sfax in the Gulf of Gabes, Miskar began production in 2006 and produces natural gas and condensates; its proven reserves are around 1.5 trillion cubic feet with production expected to be around 200 million cubic feet/day. Its daily production represents over 45 percent of the nations gas production. The second most prominent hydrocarbon field is that of Ashtart. This is an oil field located about 76 kilometers off the coast of Sfax.5 Similar to the Miskar field, this originally was discovered in the 1970s. Its daily production represents about 10 percent of Tunisias oil production. The program of complementary development is in progress by the ownersthe international oil and gas company OMVto improve its production capacity. The deposit of Didon is the third most important hydrocarbon field; it is offshore, located about 150 kilometers from Sfax. Its daily output is about 9 percent of national oil output. Discovered by Elf Aquitaine in 1975, this field is currently owned and operated by PA Resources. Sfaxs success in attracting international energy companies has allowed it to become the nations largest gas provideraccounting for 70 percent of total productionreflecting its role as a center of the hydrocarbon sector in Tunisia while supplying needed energy to the local market. This trend is expected to continue with exploration and production activities being undertaken by international oil and gas firms in the Gulf of Gabes offshore of Sfax that look promising, particularly for natural gas. Thus, Sfax plays a crucial role in the Tunisian economy: being the number one oil producer, the location of the first fishing port, the second largest industrial center in the country, and an important producer of oil and natural gas. The development indicator chosen in this study is the industrial GDP specific to Sfax. This indicator is calculated according to the sum of the value added by the manufacturing industry in millions of Tunisian dinars at current prices for the period between 1980 and 2010. The manufacturing subsectors that are taken into consideration include: agricultural and food industries, building materials and glass industries, mechanical and electrical industries, chemical industry, clothing and leather industries, and other manufacturing industries. Electricity in Tunisia is provided by the Tunisian Electricity and Gas Society (STEG). On August 3, 1962, the government decided to nationalize the production, transmission, and distribution of electricity and gas and assigned these activities to the STEG. In 2010, electricity in Tunisia represented 6 percent of the GDP and the countrys total consumption was 892 gigawatts (GW) per year. Tunisias electricity consumption on a per capita basis is considered high when compared to other nations on the southern shore of the Mediterranean, despite the fact that Tunisias

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energy resources are relatively limited. Due to its electrification policy, STEG has succeeded in the past 40 years in raising the electrification rate from 20 percent to nearly 100 percent in urban areas and in rural areas from 6 percent to 99 percent. In this article, we are interested only in the district of Sfax City, which covers the geographical area demarcated by El Ain Road to the north and the Gabes Road on the southeast. This district manages the following areas: la Sokra, Chaker, el Alya, Wed el Rmal, city of El Bahri, and El Houda.6 For our research, the energy consumption of Sfax is expressed by the mediumvoltage electricity consumption in the manufacturing industrial sector, which includes the following industries: food, textiles and clothing, paper and publishing, chemicals, and petroleum. The medium-voltage electricity combined with highvoltage electricity are used to power manufacturing, services, tourism, transportation and communication, water and sanitation pumping activities, agricultural pumping activities, and various other industries. Medium-voltage electricity sales ranked highest among the types of electricity consumed with a percentage between 46 and 48 percent for the period 20002006. Lowvoltage electricity sales ranked second at between 41 and 43 percent, with high-voltage electricity consumption accounting for between 10 and 12 percent for the same period. Medium-voltage electricity consumption continues to increase over time (see figure 1).

Figure 1
VARIATIONS IN MEDIUM-VOLTAGE ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION FOR SFAX (DISTRICT OF SFAX CITY), 19802010 (in gigawatt hours)

Source: Constructed and expanded by the author based upon the annual data of the Tunisian Electricity and Gas Society, South regional distribution and the Sfax City district.

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This upward trend of electricity consumption is due to the increase in the number of subscribers from the development of various economic sectors in Sfax and, in particular, from the industrial sector, which has continued to evolve since the 1960s. If we compile the trend of subscribers for medium-voltage electricity consumption with the variation of industrial firms over time, we can see some delay (figures 2 and 3). This can be explained by the fact that medium-voltage sales not only power the manufacturing industry but also are used by other economic sectors as has been mentioned earlier. Literature Review The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth has been widely discussed. Though a consensus has been reached confirming the existence of the relationship between these two variables, the direction of this relationship is still under discussion. At the empirical level, there exist four cases concerning the causal relationship between economic growth and energy consumption. The first case presents energy consumption as a cause of the economic growth. This view was widely supported by A. Masih and R. Masih in the case of India, E. S. H. Yu and B. K. Hwang in the case of the Philippines, B. Cheng for Brazil, C.-C. Lee concerning Canada and Belgium, G. Altinay and E. Karagol and U. Soytas and R. Sari regarding Turkey, Figure 2
TREND OF THE CUMULATIVE NUMBER OF INDUSTRIAL FIRMS IN SFAX, 19802010

Source: Constructed and expanded by the author based upon data from the Promotion Agency for Industry (PAI) of Sfax.

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VARIATIONS IN THE NUMBER OF MEDIUM-VOLTAGE SUBSCRIBERS IN SFAX (DISTRICT OF SFAX CITY), 19902010

Source: Constructed and expanded by the author based upon the annual data of the Tunisian Electricity and Gas Society, South regional distribution and the Sfax-City district.

J. Asafu-Adjaye in the cases of India and Indonesia, A. Shiu and P. Lam for China, Y. Wolde-Rufael for Gabon, Zambia, and Tunisia, J. Squali for Nigeria, and N. Odhiambo in the case of Tanzania.7 The second group argues that economic growth guides the energy consumption in many countries. The empirical work, which is consistent with this view, includes the following studies: P. Narayan and R. Smyth in the case of Australia, J. Kraft and A. Kraft and S. Abosedra and H. Baghestani for the United States, A. M. M. Masih and R. Masih for Indonesia, B. Cheng and T. Lai regarding Taiwan, C.-C. Lee in the case of Japan, and U. Soytas and R. Sari for Italy, France, Germany, Argentina, and Korea.8 A third view suggests that there is bi-directional causality between economic growth and energy consumption. This perspective largely has been supported by studies such as D. I. Stern for the case of the United States, G. Hondroyiannis et al. with regard to Greece, C.-C. Lee for Sweden, and J. Asafu-Adjaye for the Philippines and Thailand.9 Finally, the last perspective indicates that there is no causality between energy consumption and economic growth. This observation has been offered by U. Soytas and R. Sari in the cases of Brazil, Mexico, India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Canada, C.-C. Lee concerning the United Kingdom and Germany, Y. Wolde-Rufael for Togo, Tunisia, and Zimbabwe, and A. Akinlo for the nations of Cameroon, Co te dIvoire, Nigeria, Kenya, and Togo.10

SFAX: ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION & GDP NEXUS Estimation Techniques and Empirical Analysis

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Cointegration-ARDL Bounds Testing Procedure: In this study, we use the re-

cently developed ARDL bounds testing approach to investigate the long-run cointegration relationship between the two proxies of economic growth and energy consumption. The ARDL modeling methodology originally was introduced by M. Pesaran and Y. Shin and later expanded upon by M. Pesaran et al.11 The ARDL cointegration approach has many advantages in comparison to other cointegration methods. Relative to these other cointegration techniques, the ARDL does not impose a restrictive assumption that all variables under study must be integrated of the same order; in other words, this approach can be applied whatever the variables are integrated of order one [I(1)], order zero [I(0)], or fractionally integrated. Unlike the other cointegration techniques, the ARDL test is suitable even through the size of the sample is small. The ARDL model used in this study can be expressed as follows: Model number 1: electricity consumption and economic growth Case number 1: lGDP is the endogenous variable Xn Xn b 1 i D lGDP + b2i DlEC ti + b3lGDPt1 DlGDPt = b0 + t i i=1 i=1 + b4lEC t1 + mt Case number 2: lEC is the endogenous variable Xn Xn DlEC t = a0 + a1i DlEC ti + a2i DlGDPti + a3lGDPt1 i=1 i=1 + a4lEC t1 + mt 2 where lGDP is the log of industrial GDP, lEC is the log of electricity consumption, mt is the white noise error term, and D is the first difference operator. The industrial GDP was calculated from the sum of manufacturing industry in millions of Tunisian dinars at current prices for the period between 1980 and 2010. The manufacturing subsectors considered in this indicator are: agricultural and food industries, building materials and glass industries, mechanical and electrical industries, chemical industries, clothing and leather industries, and other various manufacturing industries. The industrial GDP was collected from the Promotion Industry of Sfax and the National Institute of Statistics of Sfax. The chosen variable of EC in this study is the medium-voltage electricity destined for the manufacturing sector, which includes the following industries: food, textiles and clothing, paper and publishing, chemical, and oil. This indicator was collected from the Tunisian Electricity and Gas Company of the Sfax City district for the same time period (19802010). 1

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The null hypothesis of the bounds test procedure shows that there is no cointegration among the variables in equation (1), that is, H0: b3 = b4 = 0 against the alternative hypothesis of H1: b3 6 b4 6 0. In equation (2) the null hypothesis of no cointegration is H0: a3 = a4 = 0 against the alternative hypothesis of H1: a3 6 a4 6 0. M. Pesaran and B. Pesaran and M. Pesaran et al. report two sets of critical values for a given significance level.12 One set of critical values assumes that all variables included in the ARDL model are I(0) while the other is calculated on the assumption that the variables are I(1). If the computed test statistic exceeds the upper critical bounds value, then the H0 hypothesis is rejected. If the F-statistic is lower than the lower bounds value, then the null hypothesis of no cointegration cannot be rejected. If the F-statistic falls into the bounds, then the cointegration test becomes inconclusive.
Granger Non-Causality Test: While the long-run relationships have been identified in the section on cointegration-ARDL bounds testing, this section detects the short-run and long-run Granger causality between the EC and GDP. Referring to Grangers definition of causality, a time series Xt causes another time series Yt if Yt can be predicted better (in a mean-squared-error sense) using past values of Xt than by not doing so; that is to say, if the past value of Xt significantly contributes to forecasting Yt, then the Xt is considered to be the Granger cause of Xt. The Granger causality test is favorable to both large and small sample sizes.13 The null hypothesis of the conventional Granger causality test supposes that Xt does not cause Yt and vice versa by simply running the following two equations: Xn Xn Y t = a0 + a 1 iY + b1iX ti + mt 3 t i i=1 i=1

X t = b0 +

Xn

a2iY ti + i=1

Xn
i=1

b2iX ti + et

where mt and et are the white noise error processes and n denotes the number of lagged variables. The null hypothesis that Xt does not Granger cause Yt is rejected if b1i are jointly significant.14 Nevertheless, the traditional causality test suffers from two methodological limitations.15 First, this standard test of causality does not examine the basic time series properties of the variables.16 Second, this test runs the series stationarity mechanically by differencing the variables and, as a result, eliminates the long-run information that exists in the original variables. For this reason, in this study we use the error-correction causality test, which involves the lagged error-correction term coming from the cointegration equation. The Granger causality model used is: Model number 1: causality between electricity consumption and economic growth, where ECMt-1 is the lagged correction term obtained from the long-run equilibrium:

SFAX: ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION & GDP NEXUS DlGDPt = b0 + Xn b1i DlGDPti + i=1 a1i DlEC ti + Xn
i=1

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b2i DlEC ti + ECM t1 + mt 5

DlEC t = a0 +

Xn
i=1

Xn
i=1

a2i DlGDPti + ECM t1 + mt 6

While the existence of a long-run relationship between GDP and EC suggests that there must be Granger causality in at least one direction, it does not indicate the direction of temporal causality between the variables. The direction of this causality can only be detected by the F-statistic and the lagged error-correction term. The short-run causal effect is detected by the F-statistic on the explanatory variables.17
Empirical AnalysisThe Test for Stationarity: Although the bounds test for cointegration does not require that all variables be integrated of order 1 [I(1)], it is important to elaborate upon the test for stationarity in order to check that the variables are not integrated in order 2 [I(2)]. The critical values of the F-statistics computed by M. Pesaran et al. and P. Narayan and R. Smyth are based upon the assumption that the variables are I(0) or I(1).18 The results of the tests for stationarity on different variables based on the Phillips-Perron (PP) approach are presented in table 1. The results included in table 1 show that lEC is I(1) and lGDP is I(0). None of the variables in this study are I(2). Empirical AnalysisCointegration Test: In this section, the long-run relationship between lEC and lGDP is examined using the ARDL bounds testing

Table 1
PHILLIPS-PERRON TEST RESULTS In level lEC Critical value 1 percent Critical value 5 percent Critical value 10 percent lGDP Critical value 1 percent Critical value 5 percent Critical value 10 percent
a

In first difference 4.24*** 3.67 2.96 2.62 In level 6.63*** 3.67 2.96 2.62

2.54 2.64 1.95 1.61

*** Denotes significance at the 1-percent level.

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procedure. In the first step, the order of lags on the variables with the first difference in equations (1) and (2) is obtained from the unrestricted models by using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Schwartz Bayesian criterion (SBC). The results of these tests show that the optimal lag for both models (1) and (2) is 1 lag length (see table 2). After applying the optimal lag lengths to equations (1) and (2), the next step is to run bounds F-tests for equations (1) and (2) in order to establish a long-run relationship between the studied variables. The results of the bounds test are reported in table 3 (the asymptotic critical value bounds are obtained from P. Narayan and R. Smyth).19 The results reported in table 3 show that where lGDP is the dependent variable, the calculated F-statistic is greater than the critical value at the 10-percent level. If the lEC is the dependent variable, the calculated F-statistic is greater than the upper bound at the 5-percent and 10-percent levels. This implies that there are two cointegration vectors in model 1. After establishing the long-run relationship between the variables, the next step provides an estimation of these relationships. The results of this estimation are reported in table 4.
Analysis of Causality Test Based on the Error-Correction Model: The previous

section stressed the idea that there is a long-run relationship between industrial GDP and electricity consumption (EC). The current section examines the causality between the chosen variables by including the lagged error-correction terms in equations (5) and (6), respectively. In this case, causality is understood through the significance of the coefficient of the lagged error-correction term and the joint significance of the lagged differences of the explanatory variables using the Wald test. The results of the causality test are presented in table 5.

Table 2
DETERMINATION OF THE OPTIMAL NUMBER OF LAG LENGTHS UTILIZING THE AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION (AIC) AND SCHWARTZ BAYESIAN CRITERION (SBC) AIC lGDP 0 1 2 lEC 0 1 2 SBC

0.592 5.338 5.314 1.379 5.609 5.607

0.545 5.243 5.173 1.332 5.513 5.467

SFAX: ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION & GDP NEXUS Table 3

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BOUNDS TEST RESULTS FOR LOG OF INDUSTRIAL GROSS DOMMESTIC PRODUCT a (LGDP) AND LOG OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION (LEC) First Case: lGDP is the dependent variable Variable with Trend and Constant lGDP is the dependent variable Asymptotic critical values 30 35 Variable without Trend and Constant lEC is the dependent variable Asymptotic critical values 30 35
a

Number of Lag Length

F-Statistic

Probability

Result

1 1% I(0) 7.593 7.477 I(1) 8.350 8.213

4.935* 5% I(0) 5.377 5.233

0.036 (5%) I(1) 5.963 5.777 I(0) 4.427 4.380

Cointegration 10% I(1) 4.957 4.867

Second Case: lEC is the dependent variable Number of Lag Length

F-Statistic

Probability

Result

1 1% I(0) 6.027 5.763 I(1) 6.760 6.480

5.982** 5% I(0) 4.090 3.957

0.022 (10%) I(1) 4.663 4.530 I(0) 3.303 3.223

Cointegration 10% I(1) 3.797 3.757

** Denotes significance at the 5-percent level, * denotes significance at the 10-percent level.

The empirical results reported in table 5 show that there is a unique unidirectional causal flow from electricity consumption to economic growth both in the short and long run. The long-run causality from electricity consumption to economic growth is supported by the coefficient of the lagged error-correction term in the economic growth function, which is negative and statistically significant. The short-run causality from electricity consumption to economic growth, on the other hand, is supported by the F-statistic in the economic growth function, which is statistically significant. Nevertheless, the reverse causality from economic growth to electricity consumption is rejected by the coefficient of the lagged error-correction term and the F-statistic in the electricity function, which are all statistically insignificant. A summary of the causality test between the two variables is presented in table 6.

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RELATIONSHIP ESTIMATION FOR LOG OF INDUSTRIAL GROSS DOMMESTIC a PRODUCT (LGDP) AND LOG OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION (LEC) Coefficient Significance

First case: lGDP is the dependent variable Constant Trend lEC 2 R = 0.9 Second case: lEC is the dependent variable Constant lGDP 2 R = 0.98
a

2.788* 0.046** 0.248**

1% 5% 5%

0.012* 0.085***

10% 1%

*** Denotes significance at the 1-percent level,** denotes significance at the 5-percent level, and * denotes significance at the 10-percent level.

Conclusion This study examines the intertemporal causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Sfaxusing one proxy of energy consumption, namely, medium-voltage electricity consumption (EC) destined for use by the industrial sector and one proxy of economic growth, namely, gross domestic product (GDP) for the industrial manufacturing sector. Previous studies tackled the case of causality in Tunisia by using the Engle and Granger cointegration test and the maximum likelihood test based on S. Johansen and S. Johansen and K. Juselius.20 This was the case in the research by N. Chouaibi and T. Abdessalem, who detected a uni-directional causality running from electricity

Table 5
GRANGER NON-CAUSALITY TEST RESULTS FOR ELECTRICITY a CONSUMPTION (EC) AND ECONOMIC GROWTH (GDP) t-Test on the ECM

Dependent Variable

Causal Flow

F-Statistic

Electricity consumption (EC) / 2.8067 2.7041** economic growth (GDP) (0.0482)** (0.0123) 0.31 Economic growth (GDP) / 0.7752 0.0426 Electricity consumption (EC) electricity consumption (EC) (0.5188) (0.9663) 0.41 Economic growth (GDP)
a

** Denotes significance at the 5-percent level.

SFAX: ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION & GDP NEXUS Table 6


SUMMARY OF CAUSALITY TEST RESULTS Variables Economic growth (DlGDP) and electricity consumption (DlEC) Causality There is a distinct uni-directional causal flow from electricity consumption to economic growth General conclusion

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Electricity consumption Granger-causes economic growth

consumption to economic growth for Tunisia, and M. Belloumi, who identified a long-run bi-directional causal relationship between the two series and a short-run uni-directional causality from energy to GDP.21 Using the ARDL bounds testing procedure, the empirical results of this study found that there is a distinct unidirectional causal flow from electricity consumption to economic growth, both in the short and long run. This study proves that electricity consumption promotes economic growth in Sfax. Consequently, policy makers must consider the importance of the electric power sector and must give priority to the different process stages, especially the quality and the capacity of its services as it has a significant impact on economic growth of the government and can lead to more sustainable development for both Sfax and Tunisia as a whole.
NOTES
1 R. Engle and C. W. J. Granger, Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing, Econometrica, vol. 55, no. 2 (1987), pp. 25176; S. Johansen, Statistical Analysis of Cointegrating Vectors, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 12 (1988), pp. 23154; and S. Johansen and K. Juselius, Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Applications to the Demand for Money, Oxford Bulletin of Statistics, vol. 52, no. 2 (1999), pp. 169210.

P. K. Narayan and R. Smyth, Electricity Consumption, Employment and Real Income in Australia: Evidence from Multivariate Granger Causality Tests, Energy Policy, vol. 33, no. 9 (2005), pp. 1109116.
3 4

National Institute of Statistics in Sfax, Sfax, Tunisia, 2010.

Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Sfax, available at http://www.ccis.org.tn/english/ sfax.php.


5 Guide to Exports of Sfax in 2010, available at http://www.sfaxexport.com/fr/ presentation_sfax.php. 6 7

This is according to the mapping provided by the district of Sfax City.

A. M. M. Masih and R. Masih, Energy Consumption, Real Income and Temporal Causality: Results from Multi-Country Study Based on Cointegration and Error-Correction Modeling Techniques, Energy Economics, vol. 18, no. 3 (1996), pp. 16583; E. S. H. Yu and B. K. Hwang, The

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Relationship between Energy and GNP: Further Results, Energy Economics, vol. 6, no. 3 (1984), pp. 18690; B. S. Cheng, Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Brazil, Mexico and Venezuela: A Time Series Analysis, Applied Economics Letters, vol. 4, no. 12 (1997), pp. 67174; C.-C. Lee, Energy Consumption and GDP in Developing Countries: A Cointegrated Panel Analysis, Energy Economics, vol. 27, no. 3 (2005), pp. 41527; G. Altinay and E. Karagol, Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence From Turkey, Energy Economics, vol. 27, no. 6 (2005), pp. 84956; U. Soytas and R. Sari, Energy Consumption and GDP: Causality Relationship in G-7 Countries and Emerging Markets, Energy Economics, vol. 25, no. 1 (2003), pp. 337; J. Asafu-Adjaye, The Relationship between Energy Consumption, Energy Prices and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from Asian Developing Countries, Energy Economics, vol. 22, no. 6 (2000), pp. 61525; A. Shiu and P. L. Lam, Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in China, Energy Policy, vol. 32, no. 2 (2004), pp. 4754; for Gabon and Zambia, see, Y. W. Wolde-Rufael, Energy Demand and Economic Growth: The African Experience, Journal of Policy Modeling, vol. 27, no. 8 (2005), pp. 891903; for Tunisia, see, Y. W. Wolde-Rufael, Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: A Time Series Experience for 17 African Countries, Energy Policy, vol. 34, no. 10 (2006), pp. 1106114; J. Squalli, Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: Bounds and Causality Analysis of OPEC Members, Energy Economics, vol. 29, no. 6 (2006), pp. 11921205; and N. M. Odhiambo, Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Nexus in Tanzania: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach, Energy Policy, vol. 37, no. 3 (2009), pp. 61722. P. K. Narayan and R. Smyth, Electricity Consumption, Employment and Real Income in Australia: Evidence from Multivariate Granger Causality Tests; John Kraft and Arthur Kraft, On the Relationship between Energy and GNP, The Journal of Energy and Development, vol. 3, no. 2 (spring 1978), pp. 4013; S. Abosedra and H. Baghestani, New Evidence on the Causal Relationship between United States Energy Consumption and Gross National Product, The Journal of Energy and Development, vol. 14, no. 2 (spring 1989), pp. 28592; A. M. M. Masih and R. Masih, On the Temporal Causal Relationship between Energy Consumption, Real Income, and Prices: Some New Evidence from Asian-Energy Dependent NICS Based on a Multivariate Cointegration/Vector ErrorCorrection Approach, Journal of Policy Modeling, vol. 19, no. 4 (1997), pp. 41740; B. S. Cheng and T. W. Lai, An Investigation of Cointegration and Causality between Energy Consumption and Economic Activity in Taiwan, Energy Economics, vol. 19, no. 4 (1997), pp.43544; C.-C. Lee, The Causality Relationship between Energy Consumption and GDP in G-11 Countries Revisited, Energy Policy, vol. 34, no. 9 (2006), pp. 108693; and U. Soytas and R. Sari, op. cit. David. I. Stern, A Multivariate Cointegration Analysis of the Role of Energy in the US Macroeconomy, Energy Economics, vol. 22, no. 2 (2000), pp. 26783; G. Hondroyiannis, S. Lolos, and E. Papapetrou, Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Assessing the Evidence from Greece, Energy Economics, vol. 24, no. 4 (2002), pp. 31936; C.-C. Lee, The Causality Relationship between Energy Consumption and GDP in G-11 Countries Revisited; and J. AsafuAdjaye, op. cit. Soytas and R. Sari, op. cit.; C.-C. Lee, The Causality Relationship between Energy Consumption and GDP in G-11 Countries Revisited; Y. W. Wolde-Rufael, Energy Demand and Economic Growth: The African Experience; and A. E. Akinlo, Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from 11 Sub-Sahara African Countries, Energy Economics, vol. 30, no. 5 (2008), pp. 2391400. M. H. Pesaran and Y. Shin, An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modeling Approach to th Cointegration Analysis, in Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20 Century: The Ragnar
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