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The Journal of Energy and Development volume 38, number 1, autumn 2012 (copyright 2013) http://www.scribd.

com/doc/202945592/ Melike Bildirici, “Economic Growth and Energy Consumption in G7 Countries: MS-VAR and MSGranger Causality Analysis,” The Journal of Energy and Development, volume 38, number 1 (autumn 2012, copyright 2013), pp. 1–30. http://www.scribd.com/doc/202950688/ Abstract: This paper uses Markov-Switching vector autoregression (MS-VAR) models and Markov-Switching Granger (MS-Granger) causality analysis to assess the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Italy, the United States, and the United Kingdom). The MS-VAR and MS-Granger causality approaches were utilized to evaluate causality under three different economic regimes (high growth, moderate growth, and recessionary) of the business cycle. MSIA(3)-VAR(.) models were selected for Canada, France, Italy, and the United States, while MSIAH(3)-VAR(.) models were chosen for Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom. According to the author’s results, some evidence was found of bi-directional Granger causality between energy consumption (EC) and gross domestic product (GDP). For Japan, GDP was not found to be the Granger cause of EC in the high growth regime; however, overall, there was a bi-directional Granger causality relationship between energy consumption and GDP. There is evidence that supports the growth hypothesis for Italy, Japan, and the United States. The conservation hypothesis was best supported by the results for Canada and France. Last, the neutrality hypothesis was supported by the evidence from Germany and the United Kingdom. Furthermore, this paper offers recommendations on what energy policies would be best suited for implementation with the least effect on economic growth for the G7 nations. Keywords: economic growth, energy consumption, Markov Switching VAR (MS-VAR), Markov Switching Granger (MS-Granger) causality, G7 economies Matiur Rahman and Prashanta K. Banerjee, “Causal Nexus of Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence for Eight Selected Asian Countries,” The Journal of Energy and Development, volume 38, number 1 (autumn 2012, copyright 2013), pp. 31-44. http://www.scribd.com/doc/128418513/ Abstract: This paper explores the causal nexus between electricity consumption and real gross domestic product (GDP) in eight selected Asian countries. Annual data from 1981 through 2010 are utilized. To examine time series data nonstationarity/stationarity, augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and the KwiatkowskiPhillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) tests are applied. Depending on the orders of integration of variables, the Johansen-Juselius procedure for I(1) behavior and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) procedure for different orders of integration are implemented. Based upon the evidence of cointegration or no cointegration, vector error-correction models (VECMs) and vector autoregressive models (VARs) are estimated, respectively. With the exception of India and Sri Lanka, there was evidence of weak bi-directional long-run causality between electricity consumption and real GDP growth with short-run net positive interactive

feedback effects. However, the long-run bi-directional causality is strong only in the case of Pakistan. Based on the VAR estimates, moderate bi-directional Granger causation is found for India and Sri Lanka. Keywords: electricity, economic growth, unit root, cointegration, vector error-correction models (VECMs), causality, feedbacks, short run, long run, China, Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan, Pakistan Amarendra Sharma and Cassondra Bruce, “The Relationship between Energy and U.S. Gross Domestic Product: A Multivariate Vector Error-Correction Model,” The Journal of Energy and Development, volume 38, number 1 (autumn 2012, copyright 2013), pp. 45–64. http://www.scribd.com/doc/127076376/ Abstract: This paper studies the relationship between energy consumption and real gross domestic product (GDP) in the United States. Unlike most of the previous studies on this issue, we employ a multivariate vector error-correction model (VECM) to establish causality. Using Johansen’s multivariate cointegration procedure we find that the variables are cointegrated. The multivariate vector error-correction model suggests that there is a uni-directional causality running from real GDP to total energy and fossil fuel consumption, implying a change in GDP drives the energy consumption, and not the other way around. This study provides vital information to the policy makers who design policies to conserve energy and promote economic growth. Keywords: energy, U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), vector error-correction model (VECM), causality Mohamed Ben Amar, “Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: The Case of African Countries,” The Journal of Energy and Development, volume 38, number 1 (autumn 2012, copyright 2013), pp. 65–78. http://www.scribd.com/doc/202977986/ Abstract: The objective of this paper consists of analyzing sustained economic growth in African countries and the role of energy consumption. We have three main results that were generated from this work. First, we explain how energy consumption can achieve strong economic growth in African nations. Second, we show energy consumption as a factor of growth in a model of endogenous growth. Finally, using a nonstationary panel model for a sample of 22 African countries covering the period 1980 through 2009, we confirm the positive and statistically significant effect of energy consumption on economic growth. (The 22 African countries in this analysis are Algeria, Benin, Botswana, Cameron, Congo, Congo Democratic Republic, Côte d’Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Gabon, Ghana, Kenya, Libya, Morocco, Mozambique, Senegal, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, and Zambia.) Keywords: energy consumption, endogenous growth, non-stationary panel data, panel causality, African countries, Algeria, Benin, Botswana, Cameron, Congo, Congo Democratic Republic, Côte d’Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Gabon, Ghana, Kenya, Libya, Morocco, Mozambique, Senegal, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, Zambia

Talel Boufateh, Ahdi Noomen Ajmi, Ghassen El Montasser, and Fakhri Issaoui, “The Dynamic Relationship between Energy Consumption and Income in Tunisia: A Structural Approach ,” The Journal of Energy and Development, volume 38, number 1 (autumn 2012, copyright 2013), pp. 79– 105. http://www.scribd.com/doc/202979921/ Abstract: This study examines the short-term and long-term dynamics linking energy consumption to gross domestic product (GDP) using a structural vector error-correction model during the period 1971–2009. Also, a comparative study relative to the United States and Sweden is performed. The results offer two conclusions. First, according to the cyclical component of the model, it appears that developed countries are better able to cope with a transitory shock and alternatives to productivity gains than a smaller country such as Tunisia, where the productive system is directly penalized in the aftermath of a shock. Second, we conclude from the trend component that developed countries have the willingness to substitute existing energy sources with alternative and renewable energy resources for electricity generation while Tunisia is dependent on its current sources for its electricity. Keywords: energy consumption, gross domestic product (GDP), structural vector error-correction (SVEC) models, Tunisia Ahmed Hammadache, “Modeling Oil Prices: A Vector Error-Correction Model Analysis,” The Journal of Energy and Development, volume 38, number 1 (autumn 2012, copyright 2013), pp. 107– 131. http://www.scribd.com/doc/203147277/

Abstract: The aim of this study is to identify the factors that influence oil price dynamics. Analysis by cointegration enables us to make a distinction between short-term and long-term dynamics and between the variables of the model—both physical (real) and financial—that are considered as endogenous. A first vector error-correction model (VECM) allows for the identification of a cointegration relationship between real oil prices and factors that affect its movement over time: supply, demand, value of the U.S. dollar, stocks, and exploration. A second VECM, with the introduction of variant futures prices with a maturity of two, three, and four months, is supposed to capture the effect of speculation upon the dynamics of oil prices and to show which variables (supply, demand, speculation, etc.,) are more influential in determining the evolution of oil prices. The results of our study show a weak correlation between supply/demand and the real price of oil in the short term. Yet, over the longer term, the real price of oil appears to be determined predominantly by supply and demand fundamentals. The introduction of prices in the futures market shows that speculation affects the real price of oil, but not more than the supply and the demand variables. However, specifications including longer-term maturities (four months or more) influence real prices more than the short-term maturities (two and three months). Keywords: oil prices, cointegration, speculation, futures prices, vector error-correction (VECM) models