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CURRENT MARKET SENTIMENT
A surprise attack by the bull on Yom Kippur propelled the Dow to 9789 and S&P 1062, thus repositioning the bull for one last assault on 10,000. In order for this to happen: a) The indices must close above 9800 and 1070 b) The indices must surpass the 9879 and 1075 mark respectively. Despite positive expected economic numbers throughout the coming days, will the quarterly rebalancing and booking tip the balance towards the bear? In the immediate, the daily pivot (9758) needs to be defended, if not, Sayonara to the forward march.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
09/29/2009

ECONOMIC NUMBERS AND DATA
Time (ET) Indicator Date Actual Expectation Range Prior

PRISM CALL Today the market will try to decide whether or not it wants to rally towards 10,000, or turn back down. Futures were looking a little weaker early this morning. The market will probably move down about 35 points and defend that level. If it can’t defend it and it starts to die, volume is the key. It will take strong volume selling to restart the down move. Conversely, if the market breaks above 9857 on the Dow, then we are back on the 10,000 train.

9:00 AM 9:00 AM 10:00 AM

S&P/CS Composite20 YoY
S&P/ CaseShiller Home Price in

Sep 29 Sep 29 Sep 29

-14.20%

-15.00% to 12.50%

-15.44%

141.86 57.0 54 to 70 54.1

Consumer Confidence

TECHNICAL
Indices INDU (DOW) SPUZ (S&P) S2 9598 1038 S1 9659 1045 Pivot 9758 1057 R1 9857 1070 R2 9919 1077

DOW STOCK TO WATCH
Strong HPQ DD CVX BA Weak IBM AA PG WMT

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COMMODITY PRICES
Commodity OIL GOLD Price 66.55 991.30 0.29 2.80

FOREIGN MARKETS
Market FTSE DAX NIKKEI HANG SENG CHINA Price 5143.15 5704.06 10100.2 21013.17 2754.54 90.68 424.76 8.985 22.55 32.25 % 0.44 0.56 0.91 2.06 0.33

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UPGRADES / DOWNGRADES
Stocks Upgraded

COP ConocoPhillips upgraded to Buy at Collins Stewart; tgt $60 (45.69 ) BofA/Merrill upgrades Phillips-Van Heusen (PVH 41.92) to Buy from Neutral Exane BNP Paribas upgrades Telefonica (TEF 83.47) to Outperform from Neutral Barclays upgrades Astoria Financial (AF 10.78) to Overweight from Equal-weight and raise their tgt to $14 from $12 Barclays upgrades Broadcom (BRCM 29.86) to Overweight from Equal-weight and raise their tgt to $35 from $30 Barclays upgrades Rockwell Automation (ROK 42.85) to Overweight from Equalweight and raise their tgt to $55 from $38 W. Baird upgrades athenahealth (ATHN 37.66) to Outperform from Neutral and raise their tgt to $46 from $37

Stocks Downgraded

MBI MBIA Inc and MBIA Insurance downgraded at S&P (8.22 ) UBS downgrades AngloGold Ashanti (AU 39.01) to Neutral from Buy after adjusting its 3Q earnings forecast to reflect hedging costs AZN AstraZeneca downgraded to Sell from Hold at Collins Stewart (44.76 )

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NEWS ALERT
Major markets across Europe are lower this morning, with London's FTSE and France's CAC both off 0.4% and Germany's DAX down 0.5% Nikkei gains 0.9%; Hang Seng rebounds by 2.1% FR First Ind. Rlty announces that it intends to offer 12.5 mln shares of common stock (6.67 ) ALL FBR Capital makes the case that P/C Insurance stocks look particularly attractive (36.63 ) MRK Merck reports Januvia provided "significant" blood sugar lowering over two years (32.03 ) DVAX Dynavax Technologies initiates phase 3 registration trial in chronic kidney disease patients for Heplisavtm hepatitis B vaccine (1.89 ) Foes take on 'Uptick' rule – WSJ China to cut fuel prices, likely by 3 percent – Reuters Merkel signals cautious reforms in new coalition – Reuters World Bank head sees dollar’s role diminishing - NY Times WAG Walgreen prelim $0.47, ex-$0.03 in costs from savings vs $0.39 First Call consensus; revs $15.7 bln vs $15.68 bln First Call consensus UK 2Q GDP revised up, record annual fall stands – DJ Retail sales show surprise gain in Sept, CBI says - Reuters.com AZN AstraZeneca could face bid after 4 bln pounds Solvay takeover - Daily Mail (44.76 ) UpdateRL Polo Ralph Lauren raised to Buy from Neutral by Goldman- DJ (74.23 ) U.S. Chain store sales increased 0.08% in Sep 26 week vs -2.0% in prior week, according to ICSC/Goldman Sachs Puerto Rico asks Washington for federal aid – FT GCI Gannett issues upside non-GAAP EPS outlook with downside revenue outlook for Q3 (9.98 ) GCI Gannett sees Q3 EPS of $0.39-0.42, ex-items vs $0.28 First Call consensus; revs $1.31-1.32 bln vs $1.38 bln First Call consensus UNH Credit Suisse sees managed care organizations likely to get bigger; favors Medicaid names, UNH and AET

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