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Clinical Opinion

OBSTETRICS

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Metaanalysis vs large clinical trials: which should guide our management?


Christina M. Scifres, MD; Jay D. Iams, MD; Mark Klebanoff, MD, MPH; George A. Macones, MD, MSCE

rofessional societies and government agencies are reluctant to promulgate or endorse guidelines for medical care until clinical trials produce a consensus. When consensus cannot be achieved because only small trials are available or trial outcomes vary, metaanalysis is often performed with the expectation that larger numbers will allow a consensus to emerge. In some situations, both large randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and metaanalyses are available. In this case, which should guide clinical care: large clinical trials, or metaanalysis? In this article, we compare the strengths and weaknesses of each, using 2 proposed therapies for the prevention of preeclampsia as current examples of this conundrum. Preeclampsia is a common illness that affects pregnant women. It manifests
From the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology (Drs Scifres and Macones), Washington University in St. Louis School of Medicine, St. Louis, MO; the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology (Dr Iams), The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and the Division of Epidemiology, Statistics and Prevention Research (Dr Klebanoff), Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD.
Received May 10, 2008; revised Aug. 10, 2008; accepted Sept. 26, 2008. Reprints not available from the authors. This research was supported in part by the Intramural Research Program of the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health. Authorship and contribution to the manuscript is limited to the 4 authors indicated. There was no outside funding or technical assistance with the production of this article. 0002-9378/$36.00 2009 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved. doi: 10.1016/j.ajog.2008.09.873

Large, randomized clinical trials have long been considered the gold standard to guide clinical care. Metaanalysis is a type of analysis in which results of a number of randomized clinical trials are combined and a summary measure of effect for a given treatment is ascertained. The clinician in practice often is faced with a dilemma regarding the type of evidence that should be used to guide clinical practice; for many clinical problems, there are both randomized controlled trials and metaanalyses available. The cases of calcium and aspirin therapy for the prevention of preeclampsia afford an opportunity to explore the benets and limitations of each type of study to guide clinical practice. We conclude that, when available, large randomized clinical trials should be used to guide clinical practice. Key words: metaanalysis, randomized clinical trial
Cite this article as: Scifres CM, Iams JD, Klebanoff M, Macones GA. Metaanalysis vs large clinical trials: which should guide our management? Am J Obstet Gynecol 2009;200:484.e1-484.e5.

clinically as new-onset elevated blood pressure and proteinuria in the second half of pregnancy. The precise cause of preeclampsia is unknown, but it is characterized by disordered trophoblast invasion1 and abnormal placental angiogenesis.2 In addition, an imbalance between prostacyclin (a vasodilator) and thromboxane (a vasoconstrictor) has been implicated in the pathogenesis of preeclampsia.3,4 Although the mechanism is unknown, epidemiologic data suggest that populations with a high dietary intake of calcium have a decreased risk of preeclampsia.5,6 Based on this knowledge, a number of small and large clinical trials have been performed to evaluate the efcacy of antiplatelet agents and calcium for the prevention of preeclampsia. For each of the preventive strategies, the studies vary in size, inclusion/exclusion criteria, and primary outcomes. With regard to aspirin therapy, the smallest of the studies included 20 patients7; the largest included 9364 patients.8 Among the calcium studies, the smallest enrolled 30 patients,9 and the largest study enrolled 8300 patients.10 For both aspirin and calcium, more of the smaller studies demonstrated a benet, although many of the larger studies

did not. We make this point because these differences in the outcomes of published studies bring up the important topic of publication bias, which we will discuss in depth later in the article. There were 2 large, RCTs performed in the United States by the National Institute of Child Health and Human Developmentfunded Maternal-Fetal Medicine Units Network to evaluate aspirin therapy for the prevention of preeclampsia. The rst trial tested the hypothesis that daily low-dose aspirin therapy could reduce the incidence of preeclampsia in healthy, nulliparous subjects.11 More than 3000 women were assigned randomly to aspirin therapy or placebo; this study revealed a relative risk (RR) of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.60-1.0) for the development of preeclampsia, no difference in neonatal morbidity, and a slight increase in the incidence of placental abruption. The second study assessed low-dose aspirin therapy in 2539 women who were at high risk for preeclampsia12 and demonstrated an overall RR of 0.90 (95% CI, 0.8-1.1) with no clear benet in any subgroup and no evidence of adverse outcomes, including placental abruption. The largest study to date was conducted by the Collaborative Low-dose Aspirin Study in Pregnancy Group,8 which ran-

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domly assigned 9364 women who were believed to have a signicant risk of preeclampsia to either low-dose aspirin therapy or placebo for the prevention or treatment of preeclampsia and intrauterine growth restriction. Overall, 6.7% of women who were assigned randomly to aspirin therapy experienced preeclampsia, compared with 7.6% of women who received placebo, which is a nonsignicant 12% reduction in risk. Two other large trials also failed to demonstrate a benet for aspirin therapy in the prevention of preeclampsia.13,14 The Perinatal Antiplatelet Review of International Studies (PARIS) collaborative group performed a patient-level metaanalysis to assess whether there is a role for antiplatelet agents (mainly lowdose aspirin) in the prevention of preeclampsia.15 This metaanalysis included individual patient-level data from 32,217 women who were enrolled in 31 RCTs of antiplatelet agents for the prevention of preeclampsia. This metaanalysis generated RRs of 0.90 (95% CI, 0.84-0.97), for the development of preeclampsia, 0.90 (95% CI, 0.83-0.98) for delivery at 34 weeks of gestation, and 0.90 (95% CI, 0.85-0.96) for a composite outcome of preeclampsia, delivery at 34 weeks of gestation, a small-for-gestational-age baby, stillbirth or death of the baby before discharge, or maternal death. The investigators found no difference in adverse outcomes that included antepartum hemorrhage, postpartum hemorrhage, and placental abruption. Interestingly, no particular subgroup could be identied in which aspirin therapy appeared to provide greater benet. Based on a 10% reduction in the risk of preeclampsia, the authors of this metaanalysis estimated the number of patients that a physician would need to treat to prevent 1 case of preeclampsia. The number needed to treat takes into account how effective the treatment is (in this case a 10% reduction in risk) and also the baseline incidence of the disease. Given the 10% reduction in risk found in the PARIS study, if one assumes a baseline risk of preeclampsia of 18% (which would represent a very high-risk population), 56 women would need to receive aspirin therapy to prevent 1 case of pre-

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eclampsia. If one assumes a baseline risk for preeclampsia of 6%, 167 women would need to be treated to prevent 1 case of preeclampsia. These results are similar to a traditional metaanalysis of antiplatelet agents for the prevention of preeclampsia that was performed by the Cochrane Database that identied a RR of 0.83 (95% CI, 0.77-0.89) for the development of preeclampsia.16 Calcium supplementation for the prevention of preeclampsia has also been evaluated in a number of large and small trials, in women with both adequate and suboptimal calcium intake. The largest trial in women with adequate dietary intake of calcium was performed by the Calcium for the Prevention of Preeclampsia group.17 This group assigned 4500 women with adequate dietary calcium intake to either calcium or placebo and found an overall RR for preeclampsia in the treatment group of 0.94 (95% CI, 0.76-1.16). The World Health Organization subsequently assessed calcium supplementation in 8325 women with inadequate dietary intake and found a RR for the development of preeclampsia of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.69-1.19).10 Several secondary analyses of this trial were performed that revealed a RR of 0.76 (95% CI, 0.66-0.89) for the development of a composite outcome of severe complications of preeclampsia, RR of 0.8 (95% CI, 0.7-0.91) for maternal morbidity/mortality, and RR of 0.7 (95% CI, 0.56-0.88) for neonatal death. The Cochrane Collaboration then combined 12 studies that involved 15,000 women and found a RR of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.57-0.86) for the development of hypertension in pregnancy and a RR of 0.48 (95% CI, 0.330.69) for the development of preeclampsia. When they examined trials that included patients with adequate dietary intake, there was no overall benet from calcium supplementation (RR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.32-1.20), whereas when data from 7 trials that involved 10,154 women with inadequate dietary calcium intake was combined, the risk of the development of preeclampsia was reduced with calcium supplementation (RR, 0.36; 95% CI, 0.18-0.70).18 We note that evidence of benet in patients with low di-

Clinical Opinion

etary calcium intake was centered in trials that enrolled 300 patients.

Benets and limitations of RCTs Large, well-done RCTs are the gold standard for studies that change our clinical practice. The goal of any RCT is to design a study that is big enough so that a clinically signicant effect is statistically signicant, but not too big so that clinically unimportant results become statistically signicant. In addition, excessively large trials may be prohibitively expensive, and the sample size that is needed may be large enough to prohibit completion of the study in a reasonable time frame. The sample size for any study is calculated based on the amount of type I and II errors the investigator is willing to tolerate, the expected number of outcomes in the placebo group, and the reduction in the primary outcome that the author wishes to be able to detect. One strength of the RCT is that random allocation largely avoids the issue of confounding. However, there are important drawbacks of single large RCTs. First, some RCTs are so rigorous in their treatment and follow-up requirements that results may be unique to this setting. In addition, patients who are enrolled in clinical trials may have a baseline risk for the outcome of interest much greater than the average patient population or may originate from very different populations. For example, some of the studies of calcium for the prevention of preeclampsia (although well-powered and methodologically sound) were performed in countries with very different diets than the United States. A reasonable person may question whether these results can be applied to practice in the United States, and this reminds us that there are always concerns about the generalizability of large clinical trials. Another limitation is subtle variation across centers in subject enrollment into multicenter trials. One center may recruit lower risk women who are enrolled from clinics where they receive routine care; others who use the same criteria may recruit higher risk women who were referred for initial care. In addition, some trials may recruit
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One nal concern with RCTs is the issue of publication bias that we alluded to earlier in the article. Publication bias occurs when the results of studies that report positive results are more likely to be published than studies with negative results. Studies that report signicant results may result in a greater number of publications and may also be published in higher impact journals.19 Although this type of bias might occur more frequently in observational studies than in RCTs,19 we posit that a small, positive RCT would be easier to publish than a small, negative RCT. Publication bias can have an important impact on the outcomes of metaanalyses.

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tered in all trials for central collection, processing, and analysis. This allows standard analysis to be performed and an overall result, which is based on the totality of the available evidence, to be calculated.21 Reanalysis of all of the individual patients data is considered widely to be the gold standard22 because it has several advantages: it avoids biases that are associated with the use of summary statistics from separate studies; it allows the examination of data in detail; and it eliminates dependence on already performed statistical analyses. Instead, it allows information from each of the studies to be analyzed together and time-toevent analyses can be conducted. In addition, adjustment for confounders and the search for differences in subgroups of patients based on characteristics of individual women that go beyond the summary results presented in the published trials can be performed. In some ways, patient-level metaanalysis allows the authors to reconstruct the equivalent of a megatrial. This may prove particularly helpful in cases in which the available RCTs are small and underpowered for the outcome of interest. However, even a patient-level metaanalysis cannot address the problems that are associated with publication bias, differences in patient groups, and subtle differences in trial protocols and execution. One danger when multiple adequately powered RCTs are combined is that the large sample sizes that are associated with such a megatrial may result in statistically signicant results, which may not be clinically signicant. One argument against metaanalysis is that it can combine patient populations that are dissimilar in 1 way. In the case of aspirin therapy for the prevention of preeclampsia, studies differ in patient populations, denitions of preeclampsia, the type and dose of antiplatelet agent, and the timing of initiation of therapy. Some trials that evaluate calcium for the prevention of preeclampsia enrolled women with low calcium intake; others enrolled women with normal dietary calcium intake. These variables must be considered when deciding whether to combine studies or to pool individual patient-level data, and it is

women from different geographic areas or even from different countries. These variations can be accounted for by strict inclusion/exclusion criteria and by stratifying randomization by center, but the reader of such articles should be aware of the potential impact of these considerations on trial outcome. Often times clinical trials are powered to detect a composite outcome rather than a single primary outcome. An example of this relates to the use of composite outcomes in prematurity research, which often combine severe respiratory distress syndrome, necrotizing enterocolitis, intraventricular hemorrhage, and death into a single variable. Composite outcomes can be very helpful in that they reduce the estimated sample size in a clinical trial and make it easier to achieve statistically and clinically significant results. However, the use of a composite outcome limits the ability of any 1 study to detect differences in each of these important clinical outcomes individually. In addition, single large clinical trials may not be powered adequately to assess the frequency of rare, but potentially important, adverse events. One example is the previously discussed NICHD-Maternal Fetal Medicine Units Network trial that used aspirin therapy for the prevention of preeclampsia in nulliparous women.11 This trial indicated that there was an increase in the risk of placental abruption in patients who receive low-dose aspirin therapy vs placebo. Other RCTs and large metaanalyses found rates of abruption in the placebo group that were similar to the rate in the aspirin therapy group in the Network trial, which suggests that the initial association between aspirin therapy and placental abruption was likely a chance association. Also, single large clinical trials often times may not have sufcient numbers of subjects in important subgroups. This is illustrated by the trials that evaluate aspirin therapy for the prevention of preeclampsia. Despite the large numbers of women who are enrolled in many of the studies, there is still limited information available about important subgroups such as women with preexisting renal disease. 484.e3

Benets and limitations of metaanalysis We have reviewed the ndings of a patient-level metaanalysis and traditional metaanalysis for therapies to prevent preeclampsia. We will now provide some of the background methods for each type of study. Metaanalysis is a type of analysis in which results of a number of RCTs are combined statistically, and a summary measure of effect for a given treatment is ascertained. Many methods for metaanalysis are available, but the most commonly applied focus is on the combination of published summary statistics, usually in some form of weighted average. This is the type of metaanalysis that is performed commonly by the Cochrane Collaboration. One important component of traditional metaanalysis is the process by which each study is assigned a weight. A summary statistic is generated for each individual study to describe the observed intervention effect, and a weight is then assigned which depends on the precision of the effect size for that study.20 Instead of simply assigning weight based on study size, the goal of this approach is to give more weight to the more precise studies. This is 1 way in which a small study with a high incidence of the outcome in question may contribute signicantly to the overall results of metaanalysis. In contrast, patient level metaanalysis refers to a process by which individuals who conduct a metaanalysis obtain individual data on each patient who is en-

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lyzed a database of 250 obstetric trials from 33 metaanalyses and provided evidence that RCTs with inadequate blinding of patients and providers overestimated the intervention effect by 30-40%, when compared with trials with adequate blinding. The authors of a metaanalysis can address issues of study quality by carefully selecting and reporting inclusion and exclusion criteria and the characteristics of included and excluded studies.24 For the examples of both aspirin and calcium for the prevention of preeclampsia, we observed a trend that the earlier, smaller trials tended to provide more evidence of benet than later larger trials. This brings us to the point that metaanalysis has a crucial role in generating hypotheses for future RCTs, especially when only small trials exist. Importantly, 1 issue that relates to metaanalysis of small trials was addressed in a study by LeLorier et al.25 These authors identied 12 RCTs that enrolled 1000 patients. They were then able to identify 19 metaanalyses that had been published on the same topic before publication of the large RCT. Outcomes of the 12 large RCTs were not predicted accurately by the previous metaanalyses 35% of the time. This highlights the fact that metaanalysis cannot take the place of an adequately powered RCT and that large clinical trials (such as those conducted for both aspirin and calcium for the prevention of preeclampsia) are essential to clinical practice.

Clinical Opinion

FIGURE

Hypothetical example
Relative Risk (95% CI)

Study A Study B Total 0.5 1 2.0

Hypothetical example of interstudy heterogeneity and the effect on summary statistics.


Scifres. Metaanalysis vs large clinical trials. Am J Obstet Gynecol 2009.

easy to see how such differences can markedly inuence the results of a metaanalysis. A second, somewhat related issue about metaanalysis is management of divergent results of studies. For example, consider 2 studies of equal size to evaluate a drug for preeclampsia in which study A found an improved outcome (RR, 0.5), and study B reported worse outcome with treatment (RR, 2.0). A metaanalysis of these studies would likely result in the misleading conclusion that treatment had no effect, either positive or negative, on outcome (Figure). The epidemiologic term for this is interstudy heterogeneity. Heterogeneity may not always be this obvious, but it can be detected with a variety of statistical techniques. When heterogeneity is signicant, we must consider why heterogeneity is present and whether combining the studies under consideration is appropriate. Of note, the Cochrane Review assessment of calcium for the prevention of preeclampsia detected significant heterogeneity among the studies. In this case heterogeneity seems to arise from smaller studies that demonstrate greater benet. This may have resulted from publication bias, or it may result from the fact that smaller studies tend to enroll the highest risk patients. A third point regarding metaanalysis relates to the quality of data going inthe so called garbage in, garbage out theory. This is an important concern that can have a signicant impact on the results of metaanalyses. Schulz et al23 ana-

How do we make choices in clinical practice? There are benets to both metaanalysis and large RCTs, and each has its place in guiding clinical practice. In our opinion, when available, a well-done, adequately powered RCT that enrolled a patient population comparable to the patient for whom a clinician is considering an intervention should be used to guide clinical management for several reasons. First, we return to the example of calcium for the prevention of preeclampsia to make the point that there are many factors that can contribute to the overall results of a metaanalysis (including the types of trials that are included and how

much weight is assigned to each trial). The overall summary result of the calcium for the prevention of preeclampsia metaanalysis suggests that calcium supplementation is associated with a 52% reduction in the risk of preeclampsia. On closer examination, we observe that this result was centered on trials of women with inadequate dietary calcium intake and that the metaanalysis results for women with adequate dietary calcium intake agreed with the results of the Calcium for the Prevention of Preeclampsia trial, which failed to demonstrate a benet. This highlights the importance of knowing how summary results were obtained before adopting changes to clinical practice on the basis of metaanalysis results. When we compare the results of the World Health Organization trial, which failed to demonstrate a reduction in the risk of preeclampsia in women with inadequate dietary calcium intake to the metaanalysis which detected a 67% reduction in the risk for preeclampsia in these women, we note that evidence of benet was centered in those trials that enrolled 260 women. Although smaller trials may be well-conducted and methodologically sound, we continue to have concerns that signicant publication bias in the case of smaller trials may inuence the overall results of metaanalysis. We believe that metaanalysis has an important role in clinical situations in which only small, underpowered clinical trials exist and conducting a large, more denitive trial is not feasible, in the examination of rare outcomes and hazards of therapy, and in the identication of variation among studies. When possible, the hypotheses generated by metaanalysis of small, underpowered clinical should lay the groundwork for future large clinical trials. In the case of aspirin therapy for the primary prevention of preeclampsia, there are a number of adequately powered clinical trials that encompass a large number of patients in a wide variety of clinical settings that failed to demonstrate a benet. The number of patients whose data were analyzed by the PARIS collaboration is impressive. However, we are concerned that such large num484.e4

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platelet aggregation by aspirin. Lancet 1979; 2:1213-7. 5. Belizan JM, Villar J. The relationship between calcium intake and edema, proteinuria, and hypertension-gestosis: a hypothesis. Am J Clin Nutr 1980;33:2202-10. 6. Belizan JM, Villar J, Repke J. The relationship between calcium intake and pregnancy-induced hypertension: up-to-date evidence. Am J Obstet Gynecol 1988;1598:898-902. 7. Kincaid-Smith P, North RA, Fairly KF, et al. Prevention of pre-eclampsia in women with renal disease: a prospective randomized trial of heparin and dipyridamole. Nephrology 1995; 1:297-300. 8. CLASP (Collaborative Low-dose Aspirin Study in Pregnancy) Collaborative Group. CLASP: a randomized trial of low-dose aspirin for the prevention and treatment of pre-eclampsia among 9364 pregnant women. Lancet 1994;343:619-29. 9. Niromanesh S, Laghii S, Mosavi-Jarrahi A. Supplementary calcium in prevention of preeclampsia. Int J Obstet Gynecol 2001;74: 17-21. 10. Villar J, Abdel-Aleem H, Merialdi M, et al. World Health Organization randomized trial of calcium supplementation among low calcium intake pregnant women. Am J Obstet Gynecol 2006;194:639-49. 11. Sibai BM, Caritis SN, Thom E, et al. Prevention of pre-eclampsia with low-dose aspirin in healthy, nulliparous pregnant women. N Engl J Med 1993;329:1213-8. 12. Caritis S, Sibai B, Hauth J, et al. Low-dose aspirin to prevent pre-eclampsia in women at high risk. N Engl J Med 1998;338:701-5. 13. Golding J. A randomized trial of low dose aspirin for primiparae in pregnancy. BJOG 1998;105:293-9. 14. Rotchell YE, Cruickshank JK, Phillips Gay M, et al. Barbados low dose aspiring study in pregnancy (BLASP): a randomized trial for the prevention of pre-eclampsia and its complications. BJOG 1998;105:286-92. 15. Askey LM, Duley L, Henderson-Smart DJ, Stewart LA, for the PARIS Collaborative Group.

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Antiplatelet agents for prevention of pre-eclampsia: a meta-analysis of individual patient data. Lancet 2007;369:1791-8. 16. Duley L, Henderson-Smart DJ, Meher S, King JF. Antiplatelet agents for preventing preeclampsia and its complications. Cochrane Database Syst Rev 2007: CD004659. 17. Levine RJ, Hauth JC, Curet LB, et al. Trial of calcium to prevent pre-eclampsia. N Engl J Med 1997;337:69-76. 18. Hofmeyer GJ, Atallah AN, Duley L. Calcium supplementation during pregnancy for preventing hypertensive disorders and related problems. Cochrane Database Syst Rev 2006: CD001059. 19. Easterbrook PS, Berlin JA, Gopalan R, Matthews DR. Publication bias in clinical research. Lancet 1991;337;867-72. 20. Higgins JPT, Green S, eds. Cochrane handbook for systematic reviews of interventions, version 5.0.0 (updated February 2008): the Cochrane collaboration, 2008. Available at: www.cochrane-handbook.org. Accessed Aug. 1, 2008. 21. Stewart LA, Clard MJ, for the Cochrane working group on meta-analysis using individual patient data. Practical methodology of meta-analysis using updated individual patient data. Stat Med 1995;14:2057-79. 22. Simmonds MC, Higgins JP, Stewart LA, et al. Meta-analysis of individual patient data from randomized trials: a review of methods used in practice. Clin Trial 2005;2:209-17. 23. Schulz KF, Chalmers I, Hayes RJ, Altman DG. Empirical estimates of bias: dimensions of methodological quality associated with estimates of treatment effects in controlled trials. JAMA 1995;273:408-12. 24. Moher D, Cook DJ, Eastwood S, et al. Improving the quality of reports of meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials: the QUOROM statement. Lancet 1999;354:1896-900. 25. LeLorier J, Gregoire G, Benhaddad A, et al. Discrepancies between meta-analysis and subsequent large randomized, controlled trials. N Engl J Med 1997;337:536-42.

bers may result in conclusions that, although statistically signicant, may represent clinically unimportant results. Of note, the analysis that was conducted by the PARIS collaboration also failed to identify a subgroup that clearly demonstrated a benet from preventive therapy with aspirin and only a very mild improvement in outcomes. Even assuming a 10% reduction in the incidence of preeclampsia in a low-risk patient population, a very large number needed to treat is present. If one considers a high-risk population, the number that is needed to treat appears much lower, based on the results of the metaanalysis. However, if we contrast this with the results of the large RCTs that enrolled high-risk women that failed to demonstrate a benet, we are inclined to use the results of the RCT to guide clinical management. Although the results of any given RCT may not always be generalizable to all patient populations, the results of a metaanalysis cannot be applied preferentially to a clinical scenario in which an adequately powered RCT exists. f
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