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Citizens United Political Victory Fund Kellyanne Conway the polling company™, inc./WomanTrend February 3, 2013 Report and Analysis: Statewide Survey of Likely GOP Voters in Georgia

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Three and a half months before the Georgia Republican Primary for U.S. Senate, the race is wide open. None of the nine candidates tested earned more than 20% of the vote in head-tohead balloting, and even the top contenders are unknown to at least a third of the primary electorate. The primary contest could easily spill over into a July run-off, with at least five candidates currently positioned to take one of the two slots.

GINGREY NARROWLY LEADS A WIDE-OPEN FIELD OF LITTLE-KNOWN CANDIDATES IN A YET-TO-BE-DEFINED RACE
2014 REPUBLICAN SENATE PRIMARY BALLOT All Voters 19% 14% 13% 11% 8% 2% 1% * *

Phil Gingrey Karen Handel Paul Broun Jack Kingston David Perdue Eugene Yu Derrick Grayson Art Gardner Randy Asman Looking at key demographics:     

Gingrey leads Handel 26%-21% in the Metro Atlanta area, followed by Broun with 12%, Perdue with 7%, Kingston with 5%, and Yu with 2%. Gingrey leads Paul Broun among men 20%-15%, followed by Kingston at 14%, Handel at 13%, and Perdue with 8%. Gingrey also leads among women with 17%, followed by Handel with 15%, Broun with 10%, Kingston with 9%, and Perdue with 7%. Gingrey leads all those over the age of 55 with 18%, followed by Broun and Handel tied at 13%. Gingrey’s lead shrinks among Evangelical Christians, as he bests Broun by a single point, 17%-16%. Handel at 15% and Kingston at 13% are not far behind.

The similarities among key subgroups, and the parallels between the ballot and favorable ratings, suggest two things typical of open races before major media buys, debates, endorsement and the like: first, that voters are making a decision primarily based on who they
the polling company, inc./WomanTrend for Citizens United Political Victory Fund Survey of 600 Likely GOP Primary Voters in Georgia – REPORT & ANALYSIS February 2014

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know the best, and second, that voters are aware of few substantive differences between the various candidates that otherwise cause shifts in awareness, preference and opinion. The only exception is region, where each of the Congressmen is best-known within his home base.

PRIMARY VOTERS ARE FAMILIAR WITH, MORE THAN KNOWLEDGABLE ABOUT, THE CANDIDATES
A majority of likely Republican primary voters across Georgia are familiar with each of the five of the candidates tested, albeit not knowledgeable about them. The two best known, at about 66% apiece, are Congressman Phil Gingrey and former Georgia Secretary of State and former statewide candidate Karen Handel. The other two Congressmen in the field, Jack Kingston and Paul Broun, are less known than them and less known than David Perdue, a businessman who has never run for elected office before, but whose cousin, Sonny Perdue, is a former governor of the state.
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
Phil Gingrey Karen Handel David Perdue Paul Broun Jack Kingston

Name Identification
66% 34% 65% 35% 59% 41%

55%

45%

51% 49%

Heard Of

Never Heard Of

Region plays the most significant role in name identification at this stage, as no candidate has yet emerged as a known quantity across the state.      Phil Gingrey is best known in the Metro Atlanta area (which comprises 45% of the primary electorate), with 80% name ID; a majority in the southern part of the state is unfamiliar with him. Karen Handel is near identical: 80% name ID in Atlanta, and unknown in the South. David Perdue has a 63% name ID in Atlanta, and has steady name ID across the region, with no distinguishable regional base of support but no areas of extreme unfamiliarity. Paul Broun also has a 63% name ID in Atlanta, and is best-known in the Northeast. However, a majority or near-majority in every other region has never heard of him. Savannah-based Jack Kingston has only a 52% name ID in Atlanta, and is unknown by a majority of voters everywhere else except the Southeast.

The favorable ratings for each of the candidates follow a similar pattern, with Gingrey narrowly ahead of Handel. With no significant unfavorable feelings towards any of the candidates, favorable ratings parallel name identification when it comes to geographic bases of support.

the polling company, inc./WomanTrend for Citizens United Political Victory Fund Survey of 600 Likely GOP Primary Voters in Georgia – REPORT & ANALYSIS February 2014

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Just over a quarter (28%) of the primary electorate is solidly undecided. The most undecided subgroups are women (34%), those earning under $25K a year (33%), those over the age of 55 (31%), and voters who are not conservative (43%). The regions with the most undecided voters are the Southwest (42%), Central Georgia (41%), and the Northwest (40%).
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
Phil Gingrey Karen Handel Paul Broun David Perdue Jack Kingston

Favorable Ratings among All Voters
37% 8% 35% 11%

25% 8%

20% 6%

24% 6%

Favorable

Unfavorable

There is not much difference among gender for any of the candidates; men overall profess to be more familiar with the candidates than women, but their favorability ratings are similar. Notably, Karen Handel currently does not receive a boost from women, despite being the only female Republican in the field. Phil Gingrey benefits from increased awareness and support from senior and junior senior voters (those 55 and older); they are 6 points more favorable towards him than the overall electorate, while no other candidate sees a spike among this age group. Those over 65 years old are particularly more favorable towards him, a fact that could make a difference for him ultimately, given the reliability of seniors at the polls.

“MOST CONSERVATIVE”
Despite Gingrey’s lead, a plurality of primary voters say that Paul Broun is the “most conservative” candidate in the race, with 16% saying Broun to 11% saying Gingrey. This view is consistent among those who considered themselves to be “very conservative”, “somewhat conservative”, “not conservative”, Republican, and Independent. Unsurprisingly, each candidate’s supporters are most likely to say their candidate-of-choice is the “most conservative” in the field. The biggest difference is that 62% of Broun’s voters say he’s the most conservative, followed by 56% of Kingston’s voters (saying Kingston), 45% of Gingrey’s voters (saying Gingrey), and 39% for Perdue, and 34% for Handel. In each candidate other than Broun, Paul Broun was the second-most likely response for the “most conservative”.

the polling company, inc./WomanTrend for Citizens United Political Victory Fund Survey of 600 Likely GOP Primary Voters in Georgia – REPORT & ANALYSIS February 2014

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HELP WANTED: GEORGIA’S TED CRUZ?
An overwhelming majority (62%) of Republican primary voters want the next Senator from Georgia to work closely with Texas Senator and Tea Party Favorite Ted Cruz; more voters say they don’t know (22%) than say “no” (17%). This fits well with the candidates in the field, as each of the top-tier candidates have stated that they supported the September shutdown1 that Cruz is blamed for starting. Predictably, opposition to working with Cruz is most warmly ebraced among non-Republicans and non-conservatives. Jack Kingston’s voters are the most likely to want to see a working relationship with Cruz, with 74% asking for this, followed by Broun’s voters at 70%, Gingrey’s voters at 66%, Perdue’s at 65%, and Handel’s at 56%.

Methodology Statement the polling company, inc./WomanTrend conducted a statewide telephone survey across of 600 men and women who are registered to vote in Georgia, and who say they are likely to vote in the Republican primary election this May (Georgia has an open primary). Surveys were conducted January 31 – February 1, 2014 using live interviewers at a Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) facility. The margin is +/- 3.9% at the 95% confidence level. Quotas were used to ensure proper representation of age, gender, and region; unlike most surveys, the data were not weighted.

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http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/sep/25/your-daily-joltdavid-perdue-georgias-gop-senate-f/ the polling company, inc./WomanTrend for Citizens United Political Victory Fund Survey of 600 Likely GOP Primary Voters in Georgia – REPORT & ANALYSIS February 2014

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