Theor Appl Climatol DOI 10.

1007/s00704-012-0764-1

ORIGINAL PAPER

Climate change and potato cropping in the Peruvian Altiplano
J. Sanabria & J. P. Lhomme

Received: 18 June 2012 / Accepted: 31 August 2012 # Springer-Verlag 2012

Abstract The potential impacts of climate change on potatoes cropping in the Peruvian highlands (Altiplano) is assessed using climate projections for 2071–2100, obtained from the HadRM3P regional atmospheric model of the Hadley Centre. The atmospheric model is run under two different special report on emission scenarios: high CO2 concentration (A2) and moderate CO2 concentration (B2) for four locations situated in the surroundings of Lake Titicaca. The two main varieties of potato cultivated in the area are studied: the Andean potato (Solanum tuberosum) and the bitter potato (Solanum juzepczukii ). A simple process-oriented model is used to quantify the climatic impacts on crops cycles and yields by combining the effects of temperature on phenology, of radiation and CO2 on maximum yield and of water balance on yield deficit. In future climates, air temperature systematically increases, precipitation tends to increase at the beginning of the rainy season and slightly decreases during the rest of the season. The direct effects of these climatic changes are earlier planting dates, less planting failures and shorter crop cycles in all the four locations and for both scenarios. Consequently, the harvesting dates occur systematically earlier: roughly in January for the Andean potato instead of March in the current situation and in February for the bitter potato instead of April. Overall, yield deficits will be higher under climate change than in the current climate. There will be a strong negative impact on yields for S. tuberosum (stronger under

A2 scenario than under B2); the impact on S. juzepczukii yields, however, appears to be relatively mixed and not so negative.

1 Introduction Recent studies in the Peruvian Andes on observed climatic trends (Vincent et al. 2005; Haylock et al. 2006) and on climate projections under different scenarios of CO2 emissions (Marengo et al. 2009; Sanabria et al. 2009) reveal changes in precipitation and temperature. Whereas the changes in precipitation are not coherent, increasing in some areas and decreasing in others, temperatures experience systematic increase reaching +6 °C in projections under severe scenarios. Extreme events are also enhanced and more recurrent. In front of the climatic changes, the agricultural sector is one of the most at risk since the physiological processes of plant productivity are directly linked to climate inputs such as precipitation, temperature, solar radiation (Rs) or CO2 concentration of the air. The Peruvian Altiplano, which essentially depends upon the agricultural sector, has a high poverty index. Owing to its high altitude (around 4,000 m), it represents a very vulnerable area exposed to the climatic variability generated by EL NiñoENSO phenomenon (Rome-Gaspaldy and Ronchail 1998) and to risks of drought and radiative frost (Alarcón 1997). The main economic activity of the region is agriculture (crop growing and husbandry) and potato is the most important crop with a large diversity in species. It is grown under rainfed conditions and essentially used for auto-consumption. According to INEI (1994), potato cropping is present in around 92 % of the agricultural units and represents 31 % of the cultivated area in the department of Puno. However, due to severe adverse climatic conditions, it is the Peruvian department with the highest losses of potato crops (Mendoza 2009). In a study assessing the impact of future scenarios on potato

J. Sanabria SENAMHI (DGA), Casilla Postal 1308, Lima 11, Peru J. P. Lhomme (*) IRD (UMR LISAH), Montpellier SupAgro, 2 place Viala, 34060 Montpellier, France e-mail: jean-paul.lhomme@ird.fr

The study is based upon the data of four meteorological stations of the SENAMHI network (Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia e Hidrologia). represented by the stations of Azangaro and Ilave. Van Keulen and Stol 1995). Andean potato (S. Climate change is represented by the outputs of the regional climate model HadRM3P of the Hadley Centre (UK). It is based upon the meteorological data recorded in four weather stations in the surroundings of Lake Titicaca. Fig. such as Puno and Yunguyo.400 m above sea level (Fig. 3. 1). which is mainly included into the department (administrative district) of Puno. Hijmans (2003) showed that the potential yield in Peru could significantly decrease without adaptation. Lhomme potential yield with the LINTUL simulation model (Stol et al. 1 Map of the study area (Department of Puno in the Peruvian Altiplano) with the locations of the four stations considered in the study and the corresponding cells of the climate model 2 Materials and methods 2. 3. relative humidity. The arrival of climatic conditions favourable to planting being much less predictable at high altitudes than at sea level (Earls 2009). sunshine 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 °C mm m 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Precipitation Reference evapotranspiration Meanair temperature Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Fig. reference evapotranspiration (ET0) and air temperature) are shown in Fig. The present study aims at assessing the potential impacts of climate change on these potato crops with a regional scope. andigenum) has a shorter cycle of about 150 days and is also used for marketing. which may vary interannually up to 50 days or more.2 Weather data Thirty years (1961–1990) of daily records of meteorological data (precipitation. Potato planting occurs from October to November and depends on rainfall occurrence. It is mainly cultivated in the milder areas close to Lake Titicaca. run under two different scenarios taken from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).880 m) and Yunguyo (alt. reference evapotranspiration and air temperature for Puno (recorded data) . 2 Mean monthly values of precipitation. air temperature.860 m) (see Fig. A relatively simple agro-meteorological modelling. Precipitation mainly occurs in summer from November to March with mean values between 500 and 900 mm. It is essentially used for auto-consumption. tuberosum ssp. Ilave (alt. Absolute maximum temperatures vary between 14 and 18 °C and absolute minimum temperature between −7 and 3 °C. this has a direct impact on the agricultural calendar.700 and 4.1 Study area and crops The Peruvian Altiplano. approximately two thirds of potato cropping corresponds to the Andean potato (Solanum tuberosum) and one third to bitter potatoes (essentially Solanum juzepczukii) (Canahua and Aguilar 1992. 1). which tolerates temperatures as low as −7 °C with a growing cycle around 200 days. J. 2. The main climatic characteristics of the area (precipitation. Puno (alt. In the Peruvian highlands. 2 for the station of Puno located in the centre of the region. which are representative of the major cultivated areas: Azangaro (alt. Huanco 1992). 3.J.P. is used to evaluate the main impacts.860 m). which is the most cultivated area of the region.863 m). juzepczukii). Bitter potato (S. 1991. is mostly grown in the high and cold areas. 3. with a minimum set of input parameters. is located in the south part of the Peruvian territory. Sanabria. between latitudes 13– 17° S and longitudes 68–71° W and at an altitude between 3.

Planting date and crop development The crop is planted if a minimum amount of precipitation (P0 0 20 or 30 mm) has occurred during N0 (015) consecutive days. the monthly anomalies (δ and ρ) calculated in this way are applied to the baseline (observed) daily values to generate the future scenario: Tf 0 Tr + δT and Pf 0 Pr × ρP. Simulated data of precipitation.4 billion in 2100 with a maximum CO2 concentration of 601 ppm) (IPCC-TGCIA 1999). mid-season stage . Bitter potato is generally planted earlier than common Andean potato because of its longer crop cycle.3 Simulation of crop development and yield A process-oriented model accounting for crop development and yield was designed with an agro-meteorological perspective and a regional scope. with Rs0 the extra-terrestrial radiation and N0 the daylight hours. crop water deficit is estimated from a simple soil water balance model driven by precipitation and ET0. For the other parameters (precipitation. In the current situation. Fourth. first because it is rather limited in the surroundings of Lake Titicaca (which are warmer than the rest of the Altiplano) and second. The model works on a five-step basis. The duration of a particular development stage is expressed in GDD (in degrees Celsius). (2004) for two locations in the study area (Chuquibambilla and Puno): they are extrapolated to the nearest locations. as part of the PRECIS modelling system (Jones et al. The empirical coefficients of the formula (a. maximum (potential) yield is determined from Rs and CO2 concentration. such as the SUBSTOR-Potato model embedded within the DSSAT program (Griffin et al. The four weather stations retained in the analysis correspond to four different cells of the regional climate model (see Fig. the planting period is extended to account for the possible effects of climate change since the planting criterion can be fulfilled before or after the traditional limits. which considers a population increasing at a slower rate (10. 2004). because temperature systematically increases in future climates. the planting date is limited to the traditional time of planting in the Altiplano. they are defined as their ratio (ρ). the 50 km resolution can be considered as acceptable. Fifth. First. Third. based on the Penman– Monteith model. It is a generic model aiming at capturing the major impacts of climate change on crops with a limited number of parameter. Then. Frost risk is not taken into account in the modelling process. temperature. Rs and wind speed). a. the planting date is chosen from considerations on rainfall events at the beginning of the growing season. Rs. The delta (or anomalies) method. For the future scenarios. HadRM3P was developed from the outputs of the general circulation model HadAM3P. 1993). defined as the temperature above which crop development no longer occurs. More complex models. (2009) who compared several regional models on the same study area and concluded that it was the most accurate. based upon a continuously increasing population up to 15. which leads to GDD ¼ 0 GDD ¼ Ta À Tb GDD ¼ Tt À Tb if if if T a < Tb Tb < Ta < Tt Ta > Tt ð 1Þ Four phenological stages are considered (initial stage of duration (D1). described in Deque (2007). Tr and Pr those of the reference climate (subscript r). Generally.400 m). 2. air humidity. i.e. In very mountainous areas such as the Andes.Climate change and potato cropping in the Peruvian Altiplano hours and wind velocity) are used to carry out the study. There is crop failure when the planting conditions are not met. reducing frost occurrence. ET0. The method assumes that climate variability is unchanged in the future scenario and consists in a simple shift of the observed frequency distribution by applying a constant correction to the observed data. is used to generate the daily weather data of the future scenario. crop development is inferred from temperature (growing degree day (GDD)). juzepczukii. where Tf and Pf are the daily values of temperature and precipitation for future climate (subscript f). a further increase in spatial resolution is generally recommended to properly represent local gradients. actual yield is obtained by using the FAO crop-water production functions. 1998). b) were determined by Baigorria et al. development stage (D2). tuberosum and between DOY1 0 264 (21 September) and DOY2 0 294 (21 October) for S. Climate anomalies are calculated on a monthly basis: for temperature.700 and 4. an upper threshold temperature (Tt) is considered. between day of the year DOY1 0 289 (16 October) and DOY2 0 335 (1 December) for S. The model was run under two future scenarios: (1) SRES A2.2 billion in 2100 with a CO2 concentration increasing up to 834 ppm in 2100 and (2) the more ecologically friendly SRES B2. The regional model HadRM3P was chosen after a validation process undertaken by Sanabria et al. calculated by subtracting a base temperature (Tb) from the daily average air temperature (Ta). but the Peruvian Altiplano being rather flat (between 3. they are defined as the differences (δ) in inter-annual monthly means between the future scenario and the reference one. is calculated following FAO-56 methodology (Allen et al. Second. Rs in the considered locations is estimated from sunshine duration (n) by means of Angstrom formula: Rs/Rs0=a+b n/N. 1). air humidity and wind velocity for the reference period (1961– 1990) and for future climate (2071–2100) are obtained from the regional model HadRM3P of the Hadley Centre (UK) with a spatial resolution of 50×50 km. necessitate many specific input parameters which are difficult to determine and could hamper the regional approach of the study.

2003) for European potato. development and hence on crop coefficients. the ratio of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) over Rs (assumed to be constant PAR/Rs≈0. Given that atmospheric CO2 is assumed to increase in future climates with a positive effect on photosynthesis. Table 24).e. d. i. Crop water deficit and actual yield Crop water deficits are inferred from a simple soil water balance model (Lhomme and Katerji 1991) described in Appendix A. This general approach has been developed and applied by the FAO to all sorts of crops and validated in many field studies (see for instance Raes et al. The increase rate is 0. i4 X i0 i0 ET c ðiÞ ð 7Þ LAI is assumed to vary following the crop development stages in the same way as crop coefficients (see Appendix A). increases linearly up to a maximum value LAIx during D2. J. The RUE in the present conditions (C 0 370 ppm) Its value varies between 0 (no stress) and 1 (total stress). the biological conversion efficiency (εb) is made a function of CO2 concentration (C) following the method used by Wolf and van Oijen (2002. each one corresponding to the end of the corresponding stage: i1 0 i0 +D1. i4 0 i3 +D4. the CO2 effect can be formulated in the following way "b ðiÞ ¼ "b0 ½1 þ 0:0028 minðC À 370. i3 0 i2 +D3. The planting date being denoted by i0. εa 0 PARa/PAR is the PAR absorption efficiency and εb is the biological conversion efficiency. four particular dates are thus defined. i2 0 i1 +D2. This formulation is relatively insensitive to the prescribed value of LAIx. CO2 concentration and soil water deficit. It does not account.28 %/ppm at emergence and decreases to 0 at senescence. for the feedback action of crop water deficit on leaf area.e. It is based upon the same principles as the FAOCROPWAT model (Allen et al. (2008) Ym ði0 Þ ¼ HI  TDM m ði0 Þ ð 6Þ c. above which no additional CO 2 effect occurs. under optimal water conditions) is made a function of cumulative Rs through a simple procedure derived from Monteith’s (1977) model for dry matter production. ET represents the actual evapotranspiration and ETc the evapotranspiration under standard conditions (maximum evapotranspiration). The positive effect is linear from 370 up to 550 ppm. a normalised Water Stress Index (WSI) is defined over the entire growing season as . The linear crop-water production functions developed by Doorenbos and Kassam (1979) are used to evaluate the effect of crop water deficit on yield. The water balance model allows one to calculate crop water deficit on a daily basis as WD(i) 0 ETc(i) − ET(i) and its cumulative value over a given period. Sanabria. In future climate. the daily increase in dry matter production (DDM) per unit area is made a function of incoming Rs and written in the form DDM m ¼ "b "a "c Rs ð 2Þ being denoted by εb0.J. i4 i4 X X WSI ði0 Þ ¼ WDðiÞ ET c ðiÞ i0 i4 X i0 εc is the climatic efficiency. i. Over the entire crop cycle. It starts from zero at D1. the ratio between actual crop yield (Ya) and Ym (the one obtained with unrestricted water supply) is determined as Ya ði0 Þ=Ym ði0 Þ ¼ 1 À Ky WSI ði0 Þ ð 8Þ Ky is the yield response factor determined for numerous crops by Doorenbos and Kassam (1979. Model parameters The agro-meteorological model developed above simulates crop yield from temperature.P. remains constant during D3 and then decreases linearly down to zero during D4. 1998) and has already been used in climate change studies (Lhomme et al. (1998). the maximum amount of total dry matter production (TDMm) per unit area is a function of the emergence date (i1) and reads TDM m ði0 Þ ¼ "c i4 X i1 "a ðiÞ"b ðiÞRs ðiÞ ð 3Þ Absorption efficiency is expressed as a function of Leaf Area Index (LAI) on day i by "a ðiÞ ¼ 1 À exp½À0:5LAI ðiފ ð 4Þ ¼1À ET ðiÞ . (2006)). also called radiation use efficiency (RUE). however. Crop and soil parameters needed to run the model are detailed in Table 1 for . Under optimal water conditions. Maximum yield Maximum yield (Ym.48). maximum yield may be altered in relation to a change in crop cycle length (it can be shorter due to higher temperatures) or a change in Rs. Each one requires a fixed amount of GDD for its achievement (GDDk). Then. The relative yield. as explained by Jamieson et al. 180Þði4 À iÞ=ði4 À i1 ފ ð 5Þ The maximum yield of potato dry tuber is obtained by multiplying the total dry matter production (TDMm) by the harvest index (HI) with values taken from Condori et al. Lhomme (D3) and late-season stage (D4)). b. 2009). Rs.

against 50 mm for the other sites. (2008). we compared the model outputs with yields measured in relatively good conditions. juzepczukii and S. 2003). Assuming a tuber dry matter content of 30 % (Tourneux et al.4 1. maximum total available water (TAWx) is taken as significantly higher (90 mm) for Puno.7 and 20.4 1. Compis (which is the most representative cultivar of S.0 t . tuberosum over the reference period: 13.9 1. maximum leaf area index.9 1.0 tha−1. In future climates. R reference period. Concerning S. 600 ppm for scenario B2 and 800 ppm for scenario A2 (prescribed values). (1998) for these specific crops.7 t ha−1 in Yunguyo. DOY day of the year the two species of Solanum retained in the analysis: S. juzepczukii. inferred from experiments of seed production carried out in the district of Puno from 1993 to 1998 (four crop years). the harvesting index and the climatic efficiency are assumed to remain constant. tuberosum in the Andean Altiplano). biological conversion efficiency. tuberosum grown in raised fields near Lake Titicaca of up to 44 t ha−1 on a fresh weight basis. So. tuberosum. The model was run with a CO2 concentration of 370 ppm for the reference period. which compares well with the mean yield simulated by the model for S.2 tha−1. As these processes can substantially reduce the estimated yields.8±3.15 0. Base temperature. A value of 0.4 Comparison with field data The values of yield obtained by the model represent a kind of upper limit insofar as several hampering processes are not taken into account.15 0.1 67 (R) (F) (R) (F) 264 245 294 305 20 15 360 550 330 600 0 4 2. 2.5±5.75 A Azangaro. P Puno. The thermal times corresponding to the different phenological phases were calculated from observations (14 trials) made in the district of Puno within the SENAMHI agrometeorological network. Sanchez de Lozada et al. Canahua (1998) mentions a mean yield of 17. Y Yunguyo. I Ilave. Stol et al. harvest index. For Azangaro and Ilave.60 m is considered for the maximum rooting depth. yield response factor and crop coefficients were obtained from Condori et al. this translates into a dry matter yield of 13. deficient fertility (mainly soil nitrogen content) or by frost. F future climate. cv.2±1. the mean yields simulated by the model over the reference period are respectively 18. (2006) reported values of yields for S. Soils around Puno contain more clay and silt than those of the other locations.1 78 (R) (F) (R) (F) 10 50 (Y) 90 (P) 0.8 tha−1 in Puno and 12.2±2.75 10 50 (A and I) 0. (1991) and Allen et al. such as the damage caused by pests and diseases.Climate change and potato cropping in the Peruvian Altiplano Table 1 Crop parameters used in the modelling process and their corresponding values Parameter Planting date Initial date of the potential planting period Final date of the potential planting period Required amount of precipitation Number of consecutive days Phenology and yield Thermal time for the initial stage Thermal time for the development stage Thermal time for the mid season stage Thermal time for the late-season stage Base temperature Maximum leaf area index Biological conversion efficiency Yield response factor Harvest index Water balance Minimum value of the total available water Maximum value of total available water Crop coefficient (initial stage) Crop coefficient (mid-season stage) Crop coefficient (end of the late-season stage) Symbol Solanum tuberosum Solanum juzepczukii DOY1 DOY2 Po (mm) No (day) GDD1 (°C) GDD2 (°C) GDD3 (°C) GDD4 (°C) Tb (°C) LAIx εb0 (gMJ−1) Ky HI (%) TAWn (mm) TAWx (mm) Kc1 Kc2 Kc3 289 259 335 335 30 15 230 510 200 350 2 4 2.

Even. physiological maturity occurs much earlier in future climates than in the current situation. mainly in relation with temperature rise. The direct consequence of the systematic increase in air temperature with both scenarios (A2 and B2) is a shortening of crop cycle length. the corresponding standard deviations (calculated over 30 years) are relatively high (up to 21 % in Yunguyo). ET0 systematically increases in the future scenarios: up to 23 % with B2 in Puno in June and up to 30 % with A2. With scenario A2. In future scenarios. For S. yields substantially decrease for S. tuberosum and 18–20 tha−1 for S. With scenario B2. The details of future climate are given in Table 2 and Fig. Due to the large inter-annual variability of precipitations. physiological maturity and crop cycle duration) are shown in Table 4. Puno. The corresponding impacts on maximum yields are shown in Table 5a for the different cases (crops and locations) retained in the analysis. maturity occurs in January or at the beginning of February with B2. there is no planting failure in both scenarios. juzepczukii: a slight increase in Azangaro (farther from the lake). it occurs in February with B2 instead of April in the current situation. yields are reduced for S. Puno has the greatest increase (from 0. We will see below how these changes in weather characteristics impact crops cycles and yields. In both scenarios. In the current situation. which is characterised by an important decrease in . J.1 tha−1. As a consequence of that. Sanabria. whereas they are increased for S. (8). For S. whereas in the current situation planting fails a little less than 2 years out of 10 (17 %). juzepczukii. mean monthly temperature will increase up to 4 °C with scenario B2 and up to 5 °C with the more severe scenario A2. juzepczukii. the impacts of scenarios B2 or A2 are very weak for both species. No significant change. but they are relatively unchanged for S. yields vary differently.P. except Azangaro. except at the beginning of the rainy season (mainly September and October).40 in A2). A similar ratio denoted by Rm. WSI increases in future climates B2 and A2. which transforms maximum yields into actual yields through Eq. whereas Andean potato maximum yield can reach up to 30 tha−1. Concerning precipitations. planting dates occur systematically earlier owing to an early start of the rainy season. and with A2 it occurs as early as the end of December in Puno. maximum yields tend to slightly increase with scenario B2. Table 6 shows for each station and each scenario the values of the WSI (Eq. occurs in wind velocity. which allows enough soil water refilling: around 15–20 days earlier with S. Y is calculated for maximum yield. juzepczukii. the means being calculated over the total number of available simulations. tuberosum and 5–10 days with S.J.2 Impact of climate change on crop cycles Table 3 shows the percentage of planting failures in the current situation and in future climates according to the decision rule specified above (Table 1). tuberosum (more in Puno than in Yunguyo). but they are explained by the tendency of the model to over-estimate yields under actual field conditions. however. Overall. juzepczukii. 3 Results 3. This behaviour is corroborated by a study by Thibeault et al. For S. without significant differences between Andean and bitter potatoes. 3 for each station. 3. tuberosum. Lhomme ha−1. For each station. with A2. but a decrease in Ilave (closer to the lake). the yields are around 13 tha−1 for S. The crop cycle of S. The situation is clearly better in the future due to a net increase in precipitation at the beginning of the growing season (September and October). tuberosum is shortened by about 30 days in Puno and Yunguyo with scenario B2 and around 40 days with A2 (mean values). juzepczukii. tuberosum. instead of midMarch currently. With S. Rs tends to slightly increase during the first months of the year and to decrease the rest of the year. juzepczukii in Azangaro and Ilave the mean reduction is about 40 days with B2 and up to 60 days with A2.19 in the reference period to 0. Relative humidity tends to decrease systematically in both scenarios.f Ya. when there will be a significant increase.3 Yields under climatic change The comparison with the reference period is made by calculating the ratio Ra.r . except in the surroundings of Lake Titicaca. The statistics on crop cycle characteristics (planting date. Apparently. planting failure does not occur with scenario B2 and only 1 year out of 10 with scenario A2 in Yunguyo. Puno will experience the highest decrease in precipitation during the rainy season (from December to March). while it occurs 2 to 3 years out of 10 in the current situation.Y ¼ Ya. (2010) pointing out that precipitation tends to slightly increase in the Andean Altiplano. there is no marked differences between the projections B2 and A2: there will be a systematic diminution. For S. According to Cahuana and Arcos (2002). the mean yield reported in the district of Puno is only 6. 3. the locations close to the lake are the most negatively impacted. it occurs as early as 22 January in Azangaro. tuberosum. (3)). These values are slightly higher than the measured ones.1 Climatic projections In future climates of the studied area. The actual yields simulated by the model are shown in Table 5b. as simulated by the HadRM3P model. Y (expressed in per cent) of the mean actual yield in future climate (with subscript f) over the mean actual yield  in the reference period (with subscript r): Ra. which means that water conditions become more severe.

ET0 reference evapotranspiration . H air relative humidity. T mean air temperature.Climate change and potato cropping in the Peruvian Altiplano Table 2 Mean monthly anomalies of the future scenarios (B2 and A2) expressed as departure from the reference one J Future scenario A2 Azangaro P (%) −3 T (°C) 5 H (%) −6 U (%) 0 8 Rs (%) ET0 (%) 23 Puno P (%) −15 T (°C) 5 H (%) −4 U (%) 0 Rs (%) −4 ET0 (%) 12 Ilave P (%) −5 T (°C) 4 H (%) −7 U (%) 0 Rs (%) 6 ET0 (%) 19 Yunguyo P (%) −3 T (°C) 5 H (%) −8 U (%) 0 Rs (%) 6 ET0 (%) 20 Future scenario B2 Azangaro P (%) −8 T (°C) H (%) U (%) Rs (%) ET0 (%) Puno P (%) T (°C) H (%) U (%) Rs (%) ET0 (%) Ilave P (%) T (°C) H (%) U (%) 3 −5 0 7 17 −19 3 −4 0 −2 9 −10 3 −6 1 F M A M J J A S O N D −3 5 −7 0 11 28 −21 5 −6 0 4 20 −9 5 −9 0 11 26 −14 5 −11 0 9 25 −5 5 −7 0 6 23 −17 5 −6 0 3 18 −12 5 −8 0 6 19 −19 5 −11 0 6 21 −18 5 −6 0 3 23 −11 5 −5 0 −1 17 −16 5 −6 0 −2 12 −11 5 −11 0 2 20 −26 5 −10 0 −2 20 −36 5 −11 0 3 26 −36 5 −10 0 −5 16 −19 5 −19 0 −1 23 −62 5 −14 0 −2 21 −59 4 −12 0 4 30 −49 5 −12 0 −3 17 −37 5 −17 0 −1 20 −34 5 −10 0 −2 18 −56 4 −11 0 1 25 −41 5 −9 −1 −2 12 −54 5 −12 0 −1 15 7 5 −6 0 −2 16 −22 5 −11 0 −1 24 −16 5 −7 0 −6 10 −3 5 −9 0 −3 15 65 4 12 0 −7 7 31 5 1 0 −14 9 29 4 9 0 −13 0 58 4 15 0 −6 8 52 4 8 0 −4 8 41 5 −2 0 −10 9 37 4 5 0 −9 3 43 4 8 0 −5 7 13 4 −3 0 2 16 −24 5 −8 0 −1 17 −16 4 −8 0 −3 10 −19 4 −9 0 0 13 0 4 −6 0 2 16 −8 4 −6 0 −5 10 2 4 −8 0 0 12 −6 4 −9 0 0 13 −7 4 −6 0 8 20 −21 4 −5 0 0 11 −7 3 −6 0 −12 4 −6 0 6 17 −14 3 −4 0 1 10 −9 3 −6 0 −20 4 −6 0 4 19 −7 3 −4 0 −2 11 −11 3 −5 0 −21 4 −10 0 −2 16 −36 3 −9 0 2 20 −25 4 −9 0 −50 4 −15 0 −1 17 −49 3 −10 0 2 23 −32 4 −10 −1 −22 4 −9 0 −1 13 −41 3 −9 0 2 18 −38 3 −8 −1 1 4 −6 0 −1 12 −28 3 −10 0 2 20 −27 3 −7 0 52 3 10 0 −6 5 30 4 1 0 −13 5 26 3 8 0 52 3 10 0 −4 5 56 4 1 0 −13 2 31 3 9 0 10 3 3 0 −1 7 −13 3 −2 0 −6 6 0 3 1 1 −15 3 −7 0 6 17 −20 3 −7 0 0 12 −5 3 −9 1 P precipitation. Rs solar radiation. U wind speed.

J. A study by Andrade and Blacutt (2010) for the Bolivian region also shows that the PRECIS model underestimates air temperature by a similar a 16 12 8 Puno m°C b Yunguyo mm m 200 160 120 16 12 8 °C mm 200 160 120 80 80 4 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 40 0 4 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 40 0 c Azangaro 16 12 8 80 4 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ° °C d Ilave mm m 200 160 120 16 12 8 °C mm m 200 160 120 80 40 0 4 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 40 0 Current temperature Future temperature (B2) Future temperature (A2) Current precipitation Future precipitation (B2) Future precipitation (A2) Fig. J. is the one with the highest yield reduction. It simulates quite well the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation and the corresponding amplitudes. The relatively flat relief of the studied area does not allow one to attribute this underestimation to differences in altitude between the weather stations and the corresponding grid points of the climate model. 4 Discussion 4.P. 3 Mean monthly values of average temperature and precipitation in the current and future scenarios (B2 and A2) for a Puno. Sanabria et al. Lhomme Table 2 (continued) J Rs (%) ET0 (%) Yunguyo P (%) T (°C) H (%) U (%) Rs (%) ETo (%) 4 13 −5 3 −7 0 5 15 F 8 17 −11 3 −8 0 7 18 M 5 13 −17 4 −9 0 6 16 A −2 9 −11 4 −10 0 2 16 M −3 13 −22 4 −17 0 −1 18 J −2 15 −39 4 −16 0 −1 17 J −2 9 −43 4 −9 0 −1 10 A −2 10 −16 4 −9 0 −1 12 S −12 −1 42 3 12 0 −5 6 O −9 −1 36 3 15 0 −5 1 N −4 4 −10 3 −1 0 −1 7 D 3 12 −12 3 −10 0 2 12 rainfall during the growing season in both scenarios (Table 2) and a high WSI (Table 6). They showed that the HadRM3P model (PRECIS system) provided the best estimates of local climate. c Azangaro and d Ilave . (2009) compared the outputs of three regional models (HadRM3P.1 Climatic simulations Using the climatic data of 25 weather stations of the Puno district. ETA CCS and RegCM3) over the reference period (1961–1990) at the closest grid points. b Yunguyo. Sanabria. although it systematically underestimates the current temperatures on a monthly basis.

Sanabria et al. 4. (2010) note that “the regional climate model PRECIS does indeed capture local gradients better than global models. mean yields of the reference period increase by 27 % for S. Overall. but locally the model is prone to large discrepancies between observed and modelled precipitation”. This increase is fairly significant and explains Planting date (DOY) 309±19 (4 November) 270±16 (26 September) 264±8 (20 September) Puno 308±13 (3 November) 286±23 (12 October) 281±21 (7 October) Yunguyo Solanum juzepczukii Solanum tuberosum Future scenario A2 Current situation Future scenario A2 Future scenario B2 Current situation 271±7 (27 September) 257±10 (13 September) 255±7 (11 September) 4. monthly precipitation is underestimated for some months and slightly overestimated the rest of the year. physiological maturity) Ilave 76±21 (16 March) 5±17 (5 January) 358±8 (23 December) Puno 80±16 (20 March) 24±18 (24 February) 13±20 (13 January) Yunguyo 93±11 (2 April) 35±11 (4 February) 22±9 (22 January) Azangaro 105±12 (14 April) 44±12 (13 February) 32±10 (1 February) Ilave 188±9 133±8 142±9 . where the mean yields (maximum and actual) over the reference period (1961–1990) have been calculated for two locations (Azangaro and Puno) as a function of CO2 concentration. (2009) showed that the model systematically overestimates the recorded precipitation in some stations. whereas in other stations. (2008) and Urrutia and Vuille (2009) for the Andean region. crop cycle end (physiological maturity) and cycle length In our modelling approach. Indeed. the presence of high mountains. Concerning precipitation. Since the change in radiation is not very significant in itself (see Table 2). In a study on the tropical Andes of Ecuador. The direct impact of CO2 increase on yields is shown in Fig. once the planting date and the crop cycle length are established.2 Impact of climate change on yields Azangaro 269±8 (25 September) 259±13 (15 September) 256±9 (12 September) magnitude in the high altitudes. the radiation impact of future climates is mainly due to crop cycle shortening. future climate simulated by the model HadRM3P is in agreement with the projections obtained by Vuille et al. the impact of climate change on maximum yields is the result of two main mechanisms: one linked to CO2 (which increases the biological efficiency) and another related to the absorption and conversion of Rs. juzepczukii in Azangaro. When CO2 increases from 370 (concentration of the reference period) to 550 ppm (upper threshold in the modelling process). which reduces the total absorption of Rs by the canopy and consequently may reduce the maximum yield. tuberosum in Puno and by 28 % for S. Crop cycle end (DOY.Climate change and potato cropping in the Peruvian Altiplano 202±10 152±12 144±11 Future scenario B2 Azangaro Planting failure Solanum tuberosum Current situation Future scenario B2 Future scenario A2 Solanum juzepczukii Current situation Future scenario B2 Future scenario A2 Puno (%) Yunguyo (%) Azangaro (%) Ilave (%) Ilave Table 3 Percentages of years when the conditions required for planting are not fulfilled and planting fails 21 0 0 34 0 10 17 0 0 14 0 0 Crop cycle length (day) Yunguyo 138±15 104±21 133±20 102±17 93±8 Puno 99±21 The percentages are calculated with the whole sample of years Table 4 Statistics on crop cycle characteristics (mean and standard deviation): planting date. which may significantly depart from the climatic conditions at regional scale (Aceituno 1998). Buytaert et al. lakes and salt flats (salares) in the Altiplano generates local climates. the biases are very variable.

7 Future scenario B2 16.5±3.7 100 S.2 26. J.1±1.9 100 109 104 20.2±1.6 64 10. Sanabria.2±2.8±2.3 100 101 86 100 12.8±3.Table 5 Impact of climate change on yields: (a) maximum yields (mean value and standard deviation for the reference period and future climates) and their corresponding ratios (Rm.1±4. Y) to the reference period Yunguyo Y Puno (%) Y Azangaro Rm.2 106 16.0±0. Y Ym (tha−1) Ra.8±1. Y (%) (a) Maximum yield 100 102 96 25.4 90 78 18.8 Future scenario A2 15.8±3.6 17.2±2. tuberosum Current situation Future scenario B2 Future scenario A2 S.9±3. juzepczukii Current situation Future scenario B2 Future scenario A2 J.7±4.8±1.3±2.8 9. Y (%) Ilave Ym (tha−1) Rm. Lhomme .0±0.9 Solanum juzepczukii Current situation Future scenario B2 Future scenario A2 (b) Actual yield 13.1 74 11.3 26.0±3.2 100 103 94 17. Y (%) Ya (tha−1) Ra.4±0.0 18.3±0.7 19.6±4.0 25.8 8.5±2.3 29. Y (%) Ym (tha−1) Ya (tha−1) Ra. Y) to the reference period and (b) actual yields (reference period and future climates) and their corresponding ratios (Ra.8 100 Solanum tuberosum Current situation 16. (%) Rm.5±5. Y (%) Rm.6±1.P. Ya (tha−1) Ym (tha−1) (%) Ya (tha−1) Ra.2±1.9 100 106 99 15.0 98 28.0 20.

36 0. In future climates. with less water shortage in future climate. The higher temperatures foreseen in future climate should also allow alternative crops to be introduced or expanded. was used and applied to four locations situated in the surroundings of Lake Titicaca.25 0. Through that. whereas precipitation increases at the beginning of the rainy season and slightly decreases during the rest of the season. tuberosum and S. Given that the impact of climate change on yield is clearly negative for S.40 0. As a consequence. it could be more advantageous in the Altiplano to grow S. they will favour its social and economic development. new varieties.19 0.22 0. juzepczukii) in the Peruvian Altiplano was assessed for the 2071–2100 period using climate projections run under two IPCC future scenarios (B2 and A2).27 0.25 0. The direct effects of these changes in temperature and precipitation are earlier planting dates. air temperature systematically increases.3 Policy recommendations Potato cropping represents one of the main sources of autoconsumption. Even a slight diminution of yields under future climate will increase its vulnerability and its economic risks. tuberosum (stronger under A2 conditions than under B2 conditions) and rather insignificant for S. with a minimum set of input parameters. tuberosum with high radiation absorption and conversion efficiencies. Consequently. less planting failures and shorter crop cycles in both scenarios and all locations. could be another strategy.30 0. 4 Impact of CO2 concentration on maximum and actual yields: mean values calculated over the reference period (1961–1990) as a function of CO2 concentration . 0.31 the results obtained for maximum yields in future climates: there is no significant change because the shorter crop cycle. more tolerant to water stress and with a shorter growing cycle. the harvesting dates will occur systematically Solanum tuberosum Maximum yield Actual yield 420 470 520 570 620 CO2 (ppm) Fig. Earlier varieties of S. which tends to reduce biomass accumulation. the traditional practices of cultivation and processing should be strengthened.33 0. Looking for other cropping areas in the region. In parallel. (7) for each location and scenario WSI Solanum tuberosum Current situation Future scenario B2 Future scenario A2 Solanum juzepczukii Current situation Future scenario B2 Future scenario A2 Puno Yunguyo Azangaro Ilave 4. would be very beneficial. The implementation of this recommendation should be accompanied by policies aiming at stimulating the conservation and sustainable use of the genetic resources of Andean native potatoes. adaptation strategies to mitigate these climatic changes appear to be essential. These actions should contribute to a better adaptation to climatic change and help solve the nutritional problems of the region. juzepczukii. is offset by the increase in biomass due to higher CO2.24 0. should be developed. Given that overall. such as lima bean or oat. A simple agro-meteorological crop simulation model.22 0. juzepczukii than the common potato. integrating local mitigation strategies within national policies. trade and income for the population of the region of Puno.Climate change and potato cropping in the Peruvian Altiplano Table 6 Mean value of the water stress index WSI defined by Eq. 35 30 25 20 15 Solanum juzepczukii 10 5 0 370 Maximum yield Actual yield Azangaro 420 470 520 CO2 (ppm) 570 620 25 Puno 20 15 10 5 0 370 5 Conclusions and summary The potential impact of climate change on potato cropping (S. Breeding strategies in potato will be facilitated by the high biodiversity existing in the Andes. the rainy season will be less favourable but with a better beginning. capable of using adequately the soil water available at the beginning of the rainy season.

Vincent L (2006) Trends in total and extreme South American rainfall 1960–2000 and links with sea surface temperature. when it is lower. Kc values are linearly interpolated. Lima. Kws is equal to 1. INIA. Edicion de ORSTOM. Urrutia R. Alves LM. Karoly D. Vacher JJ (eds) La Papa Amarga. Trebejo I. taken to be equal to two thirds). Trebejo I. Bidegain M. Earls J (2009) Organización social y tecnológica de la agricultura andina para la adaptación al cambio climático en cuencas hidrográficas. J. 1998. IBSNAT Research report series 02-05/93 (500). Kassam A (1979) Yield response to water. when the crop is sown or planted. Santos JL. juzepczukii. Smith M (1998) Crop evapotranspiration: guidelines for computing crop water requirements. Dirección General de Agrometeorología. Int J Climatol 24:1121–1136 Buytaert W. Carlos JF. crop evapotranspiration is assumed to decrease in proportion to the amount of remaining water Kws 0 AW/ (TAW-RAW). Rev Geofisica (IPGH) 44:37–55 Alarcón C (1997) Estudio de las sequías en el Departamento de Puno. Edicion de ORSTOM. Peru. 2. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 33. Two stages are considered in the calculation: 1. Aguilar PC (1992) Agroecología de las papas amargas en Puno. Botello R. Illpa-Puno-Peru Canahua A. (1998) Producción y promoción de semilla de papas amargas en Puno. Quintana J.A. Tecnología y Sociedad 8:13–31 Griffin TS. CEDECUM-SEMINAL S. Nechet D. needs deeper study to be correctly answered. tuberosum instead of March in the current situation and in February for S. J Clim 19:1490–1512 Hijmans RJ (2003) The effect of climate change on global potato production. Ritchie JT (1993). The impact on yield will be negative for S. pp 25–26 Appendix A: water balance model A single soil layer is considered (bucket approach) characterized by a maximum capacity TAW (total available water) and a given amount of available water AW. 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Vacher JJ (eds) La Papa Amarga. Between flowering and harvesting. it could be more beneficial to grow S. Under limiting conditions of soil water.). Lhomme earlier: roughly in January for S.P. tuberosum. crop evapotranspiration is written as ET 0 Kws Kc ET0. Arcos J (2002) Variedades nativas y mejoradas de papa en Puno. Moncunill DF. pp. Vuille M. TAW varies as a function of the rooting depth between a minimum value TAWn. American Journal of Potato Research 80:271–280 Huanco V (1992) Potencial de las papas amargas en el Altiplano de Puno. WP is at wilting point) and Zr the depth of the rooting zone. Patino F. Dewulf A. Anunciação YM. La Paz. The FAO method (Allen et al. Grimm AM. Rusticucci M. Mamani P. Deep percolation is calculated as the amount of water in excess with respect to the capacity of the reservoir (TAW-AW). 1998). Villegas EB.-CIP. Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología. Glob Planet Chang 57:16–26 Doorenbos J. oca (Oxalis tuberosa). 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The crop coefficient curve is described from three values of Kc corresponding to three different stages: initial stage (Kc1).e.

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