25

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

Kettle1

Unemployed: 27 Weeks and Over
(Thousands)

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

Unemployment length

30

Ave Weeks Unemployed
Median Weeks Unemployed

20

15

10

5

0

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

Kettle1

% of Unemployed for Greater Than 27 Weeks

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Unemployed: 27 Weeks and Over
YOY % ∆

200%

150%

100%

50%

0%

-50%

Kettle1

Assumption and Data Sources:
The 2008 employment projection was based on a 40/60 split between the growth phase and the recovery phase as detailed in the table
below. The historical trend tends towards a 60/40 split, but given the leveraged based nature of this recession I felt a 40/60 split was
more likely to be representative.

Recession

Duration
(L)

1944
1949
1953
1957
1960
1970
1974
1980
1981
1990
2001

28
16
15
16
10
9
14
5
20
17
29

High
Point (H)

Decline
(D)

Growth Phase
(H/L)

Recovery
Phase (D/L)

10
6
6
8
4
6
6
2
8
11
20

57.1%
62.5%
60.0%
50.0%
60.0%
33.3%
57.1%
60.0%
60.0%
35.3%
31.0%

35.7%
37.5%
40.0%
50.0%
40.0%
66.7%
42.9%
40.0%
40.0%
64.7%
69.0%

(Months)

16
10
9
8
6
3
8
3
12
6
9

BLS Data: http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cesbtab1.htm
2008p(1) assumes Total Non-Farm Employment peak decline on a YOY basis as of july 2009
2008p(2) assumes Total Non-Farm Employment peak decline on a YOY basis as of Dec 2009
2008p(3) assumes Total Non-Farm Employment peak decline on a YOY basis as of June 2010

Kettle1

Total Non-Farm
Non
Employment
YOY % ∆ for the past 6 recessions

Months

0.0%
0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.5%
-2.0%
-2.5%
-3.0%
-3.5%
-4.0%
-4.5%
1970

1974

1981

1990

2001

2008

2008p(1)

38

40

Kettle1

2008 Recession
YOY % ∆ Total Non-Farm Employment

-1.00%
-1.50%
-2.00%
-2.50%
-3.00%
-3.50%
-4.00%
-4.50%
-5.00%
2008

2008p(1)

2008p(2)

2008p(3)

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Oct-12

Jul-12

Apr-12

Jan-12

Oct-11

Jul-11

Apr-11

Jan-11

Oct-10

Jul-10

Apr-10

Jan-10

Oct-09

Jul-09

Apr-09

Jan-09

Oct-08

Jul-08

-0.50%

Apr-08

0.00%

Kettle1

2008 Recession
Cumulative jobs lost, Total Non
Non-Farm Employment

20,000,000
18,000,000
16,000,000
14,000,000
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000

2008

2008p(1)

2008p(2)

2008p(3)

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Oct-12

Jul-12

Apr-12

Jan-12

Oct-11

Jul-11

Apr-11

Jan-11

Oct-10

Jul-10

Apr-10

Jan-10

Oct-09

Jul-09

Apr-09

Jan-09

Oct-08

Jul-08

Apr-08

0

Kettle1

U6 Vs Total Non
Non-Farm Employment
YOY % ∆ for each
80%
U6/U3 are being heavily manipulated. As of April
Total Non Farm Employment (TNF) and the U
series diverged. As of April 09, the rate or U6/U3
growth decreased, while the rate of job losses in
TNF continued to accelerate .

60%

Real U3 is closer to 12% and real U6 is closer to
20% at the moment

40%

20%

-20%

-40%

-60%

Seasonally Adjusted U6 YOY % D

Seasonally Adjusted total NON Farm Employment YOY % D (Scaled 10X)

Sep-09

Aug-09

Jul-09

Jun-09

May-09

Apr-09

Mar-09

Feb-09

Jan-09

Dec-08

Nov-08

Oct-08

Sep-08

Aug-08

Jul-08

Jun-08

May-08

Apr-08

Mar-08

Feb-08

Jan-08

0%

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