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D. H. WELTE and M. A. YUKLER^

ABSTRACT Basin data—geologic, geophysical, geochemical, hydrodynamic, and thermodynamic—can be combined for quantified hydrocarbon prediction. A threedimensional, deterministic dynamic basin model can be constructed to calculate all the measurable values with the help of mass- and energy-transport equations and equations describing the physical and/or physicochemical changes in organic matter as a function of temperature. Input data consist of heat flux, initial physical and thermal properties of sediments, paleobathymetric estimates, sedimentation rate, and amount and type of organic matter. Subsequently, the model computes pressure, temperature, physical and thermal properties of sediments, maturity of organic matter, and the hydrocarbon potential of any source rock as a function of space and time. Thus the complex dynamic processes of petroleum formation and occurrence in a given sedimentary basin can be quantified. For example, hydrocarbon potential maps for any given source rock and any geologic time slice of the basin evolution can be provided as computer printouts. The computer model can be applied to any stage of an exploration campaign and updated as more information becomes available. INTRODUCTION SYSTEM CONCEPT AND SIMULATION Increasing demand and decreasing supply of hydrocarbons require increased activities in petroleum exploration and an improvement in the exploration success ratio. New oil and gas fields must be found and explored areas should be reassessed for additional oil and/or gas pools. The systematic search for petroleum accumulations started toward the end of the 19th century with the acceptance of the "anticlinal theory." The vertical movement of petroleum in a static medium was considered. Studies on multiphase flow systems of gas, oil, and water resulted in the "hydrodynamic theory." The search focused on the detection of suitable subsurface structures which could host petroleum accumulations. Geophysical methods have been developed and improved to help locate these structures. However, the timing and the amount of petroleum generation were seldom considered. Later, particularly over the last 10 years,

© Copyright 1981. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. Aii rights reserved. 'Manuscript received, December 24,1980; accepted, February 11,1981. 'Institute for Petroleum and Organic Geochemistry (ICH-5|, KFA-Julich,

organic geochemical studies supplied the most needed chemical data on the generation, migration, and accumulation of petroleum. From these data, new concepts were developed on the temperature-time dependence of petroleum generation and on the other complex processes of migration and accumulation. Because of the enormous amount of data required to describe this complex basin system, quantification of the processes was not possible. Therefore, only qualitative or semiquantitative studies were made and presented as case studies. With the invention of large and fast computers, quantitative studies can be initiated. Until now statistics have played a major role in exploration for hydrocarbons. The success ratio was directly related to the complexity of the system studied and how well it fitted a predetermined frequency distribution. Our studies show that most processes in a sedimentary basin are not only time-dependent but are also strongly interrelated to a degree never considered in the past. A small error in the determination of one process can result in a totally erroneous answer. On the basis of experience gained in basin studies, we, therefore, chose a three-dimensional, dynamic deterministic model to quantify the previously mentioned processes. This approach has been successfully tested with existing sedimentary basins. For reasons of confidentiality no details on the areas studied can be given.

To understand the complex natural phenomena of petroleum occurrences in sedimentary basins, surface and subsurface samples are systematically collected and analyzed. The various processes are described and the interrelations are determined. Thereafter one tries to comprehend the "system" in which these processes occur. Once an understanding of the system is reached, practical goals are sought which go beyond a purely scientific or theoretical description of the qualitative nature of the problem. To reach these practical goals a quantification is needed to answer questions as to when and how much petroleum was formed and where it has accumulated. About 1890 the "anticlinal theory" was widely accepted as the controlling principle of petroleum accumulation. The main idea was that petroleum is driven in a water-saturated environment by buoyancy forces.

P. 0. Box 1913, D-5170 Julich, Federal Republic of Germany. Financial support for the study came from German Federal Ministry for Research and Technology (BMFT) Grant No. ET 3070 B. M. Radi<e gave valuable advice u/ith respect to hydrocarbon generation curve.

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These structures commonly are not visible from the surface and. Rich. b. 1934. type. Therefore. that is. The direction and rate of fluid movement and hydraulic properties of fluids and sediments are determined from hydrodynamics. and where. and the maturity of the organic matter (Tissot and Welte.1388 Petroleum Origin and Accumulation have shown that petroleum originates from finely disseminated organic matter buried within sediments that have been subjected to elevated temperatures (about 50°C and higher). The system in which the generation. The direction and rate of heat flow and thermal properties of fluids and sediments are determined from thermodynamics. being mainly controlled by buoyancy. 1981). magnetic. paleobathymetric estimates. 1917. These theories. The sediment inputs (type. The geometry and location of the system are determined from paleogeography and seismic information about the basin. 1909a. in general. The science of organic geochemistry or petroleum geochemistry is now adequately developed to be applied quantitatively to problems of the generation. In the past 20 years remote sensing techniques were developed and their use has become popular. and source rock/oil correlation (Welte et al. 1923. rate. New and rapid methods have been developed to fulfill the main requirements of petroleum exploration—assessment of source rock potential. Mills. and how much. and accumulation processes quantitatively. and improved to satisfy the needs of oil exploration. source rock maturity. applied. in the highest local positions to which it can migrate in any structure. why. The invention of refraction and reflection seismics in the 1920s was a big step forward in the search for petroleum. conceptual and mathematical models successfully represent real system." but also. extensive studies on sediments and petroleum . models do not represent it. Every improvement in geophysical methods resuhed in better understanding of the subsurface formations and structures and enabled detection of series of new finds. when. The release of petroleum compounds from kerogen and their movement within and through the pores of a source rock are defined as primary migration. etc). geophysics became an important tool in petroleum exploration. all these methods are concerned only with the possible location of a petroleum accumulation. Hubbert (1940. migration. Once an understanding of the system is reached. Because the complex nature of REAL SYSTEM tU CONCEPTUAL MODEL CONCEPTUAL MODEL MATHEMATICAL MODEL REAL SYSTEM MATHEMATICAL MODEL FIG. depositional environments. 1978). and accumulates in crestal positions of anticlines or. migration. owing to poor understanding of real system. Shaw. and geoelectric methods were developed. and accumulation of petroleum. 1938a. addressed only the question of where accumulations were located. maturity. answer the questions. The movement of petroleum expelled from a source rock through the wider pores of more permeable and porous carrier and reservoir rocks before final emplacement. A "qualitative" determination of these processes and the relations among them have been obtained through numerous temporal and spatial observations in the field and in the laboratories. however. lUing. 1931. we unite all these data and their interrelations to comprehend the real system which is called the conceptual model (Fig. which are vertical. Now. and accumulation of petroleum occurs is the threedimensional dynamic geologic framework. migration. When our determination of the processes and the relations among them is incorrect or incomplete the conceptual model does not represent the real system (Fig. 1—Steps in development of model of real-world system: a." we have to establish the generation. b. Gravimetric. is called secondary migration. With the acceptance of the anticlinal theory geologists started to search for anticlines or for "geologic highs" in the subsurface. amount. therefore. it is clear that to jmswer not only the questions "where. 1920. 1921. A sediment may be considered a good source rock if it meets certain criteria. we try to make quantitative petroleum exploration predictions. when. b. These include the amount of organic matter. mineralogic changes. During the past decade organic geochemistry has become a useful tool in petroleum exploration. both soluble (bitumen) and insoluble (kerogen). and tectonic movements are determined from geology. However. This requires the simulation of the various processes in the system by either physical or mathematical models. 1953) further developed the hydraulic theory with a mathematical basis and this theory then received wide acceptance. Petroleum may then be collected in reservoir rocks in various types of structural or stratigraphic traps and form accumulations. "why. lb). 1939). In the past few decades. At the beginning of the 20th century the "hydraulic theory" of oil and gas accumulations was developed (Munn. how much. the type of kerogen. source. Finally. Identification of specific source rocks is dependent also on the correlation of the composition of extractable hydrocarbons and nonhydrocarbons. and generation potential of organic matter are determined from organic geochemistry. la).

1978. migration. thus. a "quantitative" evaluation of the total system and mechanisms prevailing therein is required. Furthermore. In this sense it is a simplification of the real world and. and are controlled by very complex and interrelated mechanisms (Tissot and Welte. various theories and hypotheses have been developed to explain these complex phenomena. b). migration. AND THERMODYNAMIC DEVELOPMENT A "qualitative" understanding of petroleum generation. 2—Development of three-dimensional deterministic dynamic model. 1980). Under these conditions we have chosen a three-dimensional deterministic dynamic model. The details are explained in the following. A mathematical model is based on the conceptual model and therefore inherits the errors from the conceptual model. 1978. Unfortunately. 3. the problem is unsuitable for a physical model. leads to errors—conceptual and mathematical. Certain assumptions are made in the mathematical formulation of a real system. To overcome these difficulties or to improve these misleading approaches. Incorrect original input will result in errors in the conceptual model. and 4 illustrate the flow chart of the three-dimensional dynamic deterministic model. and accumulation has been obtained from numerous temporal and spatial reconstructions of basin histories and laboratory studies. Yukler et al. Petroleum generation. This model can be used at any stage during an exploration program. the distribution and the characteristics of organic matter do not show any fixed pattern. These errors are due to poor knowledge of the real system and its behavior (Fig. Only then can the validity . la. HYDRODYNAMIC. Sensitivity analysis aids in the computation of such errors (Yukler. a mathematical model should be used. The assumptions and simplications made in the mathematical formulation and/or in the solution techniques lead to mathematical errors. QUANTITATIVE BASIN ANALYSIS—THREE DIMENSIONAL MODEL TO SIMULATE GEOLOGIC. and accumulation occur in a three-dimensional framework as a function of time. It is applicable to new areas. Welte and Yukler.Welte and Yukler 1389 WATER FLOW (Paleopressurel GEaOGIC HEAT FLOW (Paleoterrperature) HYDRODYNAMIC DETERMINISTIC DYNAMIC MODa MATURITY DETERMINATIONS m / SaUTION ' RJ(%)' Extract 10 100 1000 THERMODYNAMIC 3-D GRID SYSTEM FOR DATA STORAGE AND SOLUTIONS HYDROCARBON YIELD CALCULATIONS GEOCHEMCAL SECONDARY MIGRATION DETERMINATIONS FIG. In a normal qualitative approach the validity of these theories and hypotheses are demonstrated by case histories. 1976. As a result. case histories which do not prove the validity of the theories and hypotheses are either not considered or lead to speculations. Figures 2. as well as to old prospects with abundant data where it provides a more quantitative and detailed fresh appraisal. 1979). These errors should be quantitatively determined so that one can obtain reliable answers from simulation studies. Simulation is a class of techniques that involves setting up a model of a real system and then performing experiments on the model.

The heat flow equation for the simultaneous transfer The hydrauhc head (or pore pressure) in sediments can be of heat both by conduction and convection (due to computed in three-dimensions (x. (1) di (6) fluid flow mechanism.1 \ Uhsuccessfd Model Successful 1 Model 1 " Go to a. Gibson (1958) studied the excess pressures assumed to be generated by a moving boundary condition. and change in graphic and structural development.sity. Gibson's equation y» = specific weight of fluid. etc). checked.t = time. Input b Conceptual Model " Print Results 1 STOP 1 FIG. L amined pressure-producing mechanisms in a basin. change in rate of sedimentation. y.* . Sharp H = water depth.5w) a . M / L 2 T 2 dimensional framework. etc). 3—(reneral flow chart for three-dimensional quantitative basin model. M / L 3 for it does not handle the compressibility of sediments rigorously. LT^/M which requires the highest degree of symmetry in a three. such as L = length continuous sedimentation. 1/L mally pressured shales using the same equation.water flow) was introduced by Stallman (1963): .(L yw — generation. (3) d pK dh ApK^ changes in thermal properties of fluids and sediments Lax dx dy dz dz (heat capacity. T ed the effect of external loading (Taylor. A new equation for fluid flow in sediments The term with the compressibility of fluid is neglected. All these X. abnor. of the theories and the hypotheses applied be effectively tion of time with the following equation (Welte et al. with moving boundary conditions (sedimentation. 1980). (2) changes in water depth: physical properties of fluids (density and viscosity) and sediments (compaction.h = hydraulic head.ys = specific weight of bulk sediment. porosity. and erosion) was derived by Yukler et al (1978). where the inflow-outflow is equal to the net acKnowledge of paleopressures and paleotemperatures cumulation due to grain and fluid compressibility plus during the evolution of a sedimentary basin is important the net accumulation due to the change in sediment denfor the solution of many problems such as (1) strati. p = density of water.1390 Petroleum Origin and Accumulation Real System • Conceptual Model • Mathematical Model • Input i1 1 —. L energy transport in compacting sedimentary sequences. K = hydraulic conductivity. (4) mineralogic changes affected by temperature and pressure. Using T = time Gibson's equation. and developed an equation to M = mass compute the consolidation of a clay layer. z = three orthogonal vectors quantitative studies are carried out in one dimension (( = compressibility of sohd skeleton. paction.j Solution h Comparison with Real System . 1948). L/T Bishop (1979) determined compaction of thick. migration. L and Domenico (1976) used the same equation to compute L = sedimenth thickness. but add. and z) and as a func. Bredehoeft and Hanshaw (1968) ex. and accumulation of petroleum. (5) (d. M / L 2 T 2 cannot accurately determine compaction of sediments. com. = s.Ss = storativity. Here. . However. thermal conductivity.since the error is found to be negligible. such as fluid flow directions and rates and determination of abnormal fluid pressure zones. y. permeability.

Welte and Yukler Pressure — 1391 All physical and thermal parameters of the system are pressure. The changes in these properties are used as indicators for maturation. but also affects the physical and thermal properties of fluids and sediments. Studies by Yukler et al (1978) showed that temperature and pressure distributions are interrelated and depend on the geologic development of a basin. QUANTITATIVE APPRAISAL OF HYDROCARBON POTENTIAL The generation and emplacement of petroleum is a time-dependent. always recalculated with each computation of pressure and temperature by a special iterative technique (Yukler et al. viscosity. and thermal conductivity. E/LT°C sink ( . physicochemical analysis of kerogen.T J + 0 source/sink 1 3x n C ^T dt net accumulation dy convection J (2) where E = °C = Cpw = Cvvs = K = Q = Ttn = Vx. The identification of source rocks throughout the basin and the amount. M / L 3 = density of bulk sediment. M / L 3 . 4—Comparison of model results with selected real values. The preceding equations are also integrated from the bottom of a sedimentary unit to the top and the resuhing equations are solved by a suitable numerical analysis technique (Yukler. and chemical analysis of extractable bitumen (Tissot and Welte. Vz= Pw Pws energy temperature in degrees Celsius specific heat of fluid. porosity.and temperature-dependent and are. and maturity of their organic matter are important parameters used for this part of the model (Wehe and Yukler. 1978). type. SOLUTION COMRW?ISON WITH REAL CASE Amount of petroleum FIG. Heat distribution by convection is directly related to fluid movement. Heat flow in a sedimentary system is composed of two components. Hence. respectively. Hence. the quantitative appraisal of the hydrocarbon potential is integrated into the three-dimensional deterministic dynamic basin model (Figs. E/M°C specific heat of bulk sediment. as well as compaction of sediments and the specific yield of hydrocarbons are influenced. This means that such parameters as density. The direction and rate of fluid flow are determined from hydraulic d d\ 1^ dTm dx + 9 |<^ ^Tm _|_ a dz + K 9Tm dy dy conduction VxTm + JL VvTm ay d dz P^CpwfjL V. 1978). There is heat transport by conduction and by convection (eq. permeability. temperature not only affects the maturity of organic matter. hydrodynamics. 2). L/T = density of fluid. and z directions.) or source ( + ) term. Thermal evolution of source rocks is directly related to the geologic and hydrodynamic processes. Basic data for the assessment of the hydrocarbon potential of a basin consist of the regional geology. The parameters most commonly used in petroleum exploration are optical examination of kerogen. E/Ol temperature. A decisive role is played by the regional geothermal gradients and their variation with time. All these measurements and studies are done on the present end products of thermal evolution. dynamic process linked to the evolution of a sedimentary basin. migration. Our main objective is to determine changes in maturity as a function of time to the present and then to compare the computed end results with the observed values. Effect of Temperature on Maturation of Organic Matter Thermal evolution of source rocks changes many physical and chemical properties of the organic matter. "C fluid flow in x. y. 2. therefore. 3) which is constructed according to the regional geologic framework. and geothermics and knowledge on generation. E/M°C thermal conductivity. 1980). 1976). Vy. and accumulation of petroleum.

pore space is reduced so thermal conductivity .and temperature-dependent. head and hydraulic conductivity in the system. In an abnormally low pressure medium. may also contribute to pressure increases. These properties of water are pressure. Increase in the overburden pressure on a sedimentary unit. and abnormally low pressured systems (A. and changes in water levels. Other factors. 5). has a low thermal conductivity. however.1392 Petroleum Origin and Accumulation (A) R Pressure . B.^ f^ (B) Pressure Id Temperature . Therefore. C.^ Id Temperature . especially by porosity and permeability. most of the water stays in the unit and the overburden pressure is then mainly supported by the water pressure. but has a large heat-holding capacity. As the water cannot easily move out of the system.• T d Temperature . but a high specific heat capacity with respect to sediments.^ FIG. water is a poor heat conductor. Solid lines show changes in abnormally high and low pressure systems. Pressure distribution in the deposited sediments is influenced by the hydrodynamic properties of sediments. that is. This is termed an abnormally high pressure medium. the overburden is supported mainly by the solid skeleton. erosion. As the unit compacts. the water leaves the system and the overburden pressure is supported by the grainto-grain stress distribution and by the pressure in the remaining water in the unit. With increase in overburden pressure the sedimentary unit compacts because of the bleed-off of compaction water and as a result of solid-matrix and water compressibility. and by the changes in the overburden pressure due to additional sedimentation. When the amount of water escaping from the system is abnormally high owing to high permeability such as in coarse sands. Water. 5—Pressure and temperature distribution in normal. This is called an abnormally low pressure medium. for example. is supported by water pressure and by grain-to-grain stress distribution. abnormally high. As a result there is a sharp increase in the temperature gradient on top of an abnormally high pressure medium and a sharp decrease in the temperature gradient on top of an abnormally low pressure medium (Fig. such as aquathermal pressuring and generation of hydrocarbons. the heat coming into the unit is largely stored in the water of the unit and results in a sharp increase in temperature gradient. respectively). the increase in load. If the permeability in the sedimentary unit is not sufficient to release water with respect to increase in overburden pressure. The abnormally high-pressured sedimentary unit represents an insulator because of low thermal conductivity of the water-filled pore spaces. and the pore space in the system decreases sharply. in fine-grained sediments such as shales. P^ and r^ are pressure and temperature at arbitrary depth d.

5 0 Z < 1.50 50 . Rni°7o.30 . and physical and thermal properties versus depth relations. temperature. 1967). With the knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of temperature. The system concept which is formulated by the conceptual model and the resulting mathematical model in this study allows us to determine the temperature distribution in a sedimentary basin with greater accuracy than any other indirect method available. a correlation equation between vitrinite reflectance. and the temperature-time index was found. the abnormally low pressure medium represents a conductor. Hence. Our mathematical model allows us to develop.50 AO .60 50 L . changes in density of water can be neglected. whereas decrease in viscosity with increasing temperature is important (Paaswell. and vitrinite reflectance. 1236m HYDROCARBONS 50 100 (mg/gCorg) 150 200 TD KOOm FIG. a time-dependent three-dimensional relativetemperature-distribution pattern even in unexplored basins without any well data. 1200 TD. Hydrauhc conductivity of a medium is the ability of a medium to transmit water and is defined as the product of permeability of the medium and the specific weight of the fluid divided by the viscosity of the fluid. is kept higher than in a normal pressure medium (hydrostatic) and specific heat capacity is kept low.Welte and Yukler Porosity 70 . Lopatin mathematically analyzed the geologic and petrologic findings of the Munsterland borehole and introduced the temperature-time index (I) which is the sum of the products of the effective geologic heating time (G).T2G2 + + TnG. decrease in viscosity with increase in temperature will yield higher hydraulic conductivities which will result in higher water flow rates. 6—Effect of heat flow on porosity versus depth relation (from Yukler et al.0- i 1. n'Jn(3) 300 -^ 600 G-5°C/km a. 7—Hydrocarbon generation curve for type II and type III kerogen.5- FIG.40 . and the temperature correction factor (T): I = TiGi -I. . in general. 8 900 Subsequently. This relative pattern can easily be gauged as soon as samples are available to measure physical properties of the sediments. the thermal evolution of the organic 0. Therefore. at least.20 I .30 iO . Higher water flow rates will yield higher compaction and changes in temperature. 1978). Determination of Maturity of Organic Matter from Lopatin's Method Lopatin (1971) analyzed the Ruhr coals and especially the coal seams in the Munsterland-1 borehole. From 0 to 100°C. In coalification reactions the reaction rate. Figure 6 illustrates the changes in porosity versus depth relations with changes in heat flux (Yukler et al. pressure.30 .60 I 1393 70 _l 70 .20 0- matter can be determined. doubles with every increase of 10°C in temperature. 1978).20 .

These vitrinite reflectance values will result in ratios of hydrocarbons/organic carbon of about 22. hydrocarbon generation curves as given in Figure 7 are used for calculations of the hydrocarbon potential. however. (4) From simultaneous solutions of equations 1 and 2. therefore. Quantification of Hydrocarbon Generation Potential At the next step the calculated vitrinite reflectance values will be used to determine the amount of FIG. and 16 mg/g. In this way.1394 Petroleum Origin and Accumulation Rni% . is a normal .70. Then T and G values are determined. 8—General three-dimensional illustration of study area. Along this Hne.5282. The vitrinite reflectance is then calculated as a function of space and time. 0-1 The peak hydrocarbon generation for this curve is shown at a vitrinite reflectance value of 0. Nevertheless.35. Let's assume that three different vitrinite reflectance values (Rm°7o) of 0. In this connection it must be realized that the hydrocarbon generation curves represent observed maximum values of hydrocarbons which are not always reached.04% are computed FIG. In the example treated in this paper the source rock in -5/. with the assumption or estimation of expulsion efficiency. for the time being.83m-question contains organic matter of type II kerogen. 10—Porosity versus depth relations at four locations along cross section in Figure 9. Lopatin's method is used as a first approach. 7). As a first approach we assumed that primary migration is mainly a pressure-driven hydrocarbon-phase movement. \ ' PRIMARY AND SECONDARY MIGRATION OF HYDROCARBONS FIG. hydrocarbons to be expected from possible source rocks within the three-dimensional sedimentary basin as a function of time. It needs further improvement to be applicable to the different types of organic matter and at different levels of maturation. the temperature is computed as a function of time and space.70%. For this purpose a plot of a hydrocarbon generation curve for type II and type III kerogen is given in Figure 7. 9—East-west cross section through study area. From equation 3 the temperature-time index is computed and replaced in equation 4. amount of petroleum probably expelled from source rocks can be given. and 1. parameters such as "kerogen to hydrocarbon conversion" should be employed to appraise a source rock. for three different source rocks. Primary migration. At a later stage. Despite its "oversimpHfied" approach. Because hydrocarbon generation curves also have other deficiencies due to migrational phenomena. Lopatin's method in our experience has worked well. 0. when rock samples are available the hydrocarbon potential can be quan/ tified more accurately. respectively (Fig.0 60 analyses are available a relative distribution of the regional hydrocarbon potential for a given source rock 3 2 can be established.301 0. 147. prior to any exploratory drilling and before any actual source rock Porosity 1%) 0 20 40 60 0 20 (.

The objectives of this study are to determine the geologic history. The sedimentation took place in shallow water (20 to 100 m) except for carbonates where water depth was approximately 500 m. respectively. limestone. The heat flux is 1.000 m. A time step of 100. the conceptual model. 1978).1 X 10 " 6 cal/cm ~ 2/sec ~ 1 and the average initial temperature at the sediment-water interface is 15°C.y.62. Yukler.384 km2 with a maximum sedi- . as a first approach.000 years is chosen with a vertical 07008 1. that is.54 are assumed for shale. Initial physical and thermal parameters are chosen depending on the lithologic descriptions (Yukler et al. Hydrocarbon-phase migration is in agreement with the empirical geologic and geochemical data (Tissot and Welte. paleotemperature and generation. in the absence of reliable data. sand. 2- FIG. and accumulation of the hydrocarbons in a given sedimentary basin. The faults are discontinuous and are mainly at the edges of the basin owing to local stress anomalies. 12—Evolution of maturity of organic matter as function of time at four locations along cross section in Figure 9.28. grid interval of 10 m and lateral grid interval of 1. possible secondary migration directions of petroleum and traps most likely to contain petroleum can be indicated. 1976). 1972. paleopressure. and sandy shale. migration. 9). the estimation of the height of a petroleum column is very problematic. The pore pressures or hydrodynamic conditions are computed from equation 1. The buoyancy is computed by subtracting the petroleum density from the formation water density and multiplying by the height of the petroleum column. The mathematical model is based on the conceptual model. With the combination of all these 100 my 0100 my 0 100 my 0 100 my 0 I .04- FIG. r" r r 0. These are buoyancy. The pore sizes in the capillary pressure FIG. shale and sandy shale layers) as an input. The lowest shale unit is the source rock and the overlying sand layer is the reservoir rock.40. and hydrodynamics. capillary pressure. limestone. Initial porosities (pore volume/bulk volume) of 0. 0. There are three major parameters that control secondary migration and the subsequent formation of oil and gas pools. 0.3504 THREE-DIMENSIONAL MODEL APPLICATION The model has been applied successfully to real basins as shown by the example in Figure 8. and 0. 1978). shale and sandy shale. The interfacial tension is corrected for temperature as given by Schowalter (1979). (1975) equation. It takes place ''2^ through available pores or by microfracturing of dense source rocks. The sedimentation occurred on top of a practically impermeable basement during a total time span of 195 m. The errors in the initial estimates of sediment input and heat flow are minimized as discussed by Yukler et al (1978). 13—Possible secondary migration directions and accumulation of petroleum.Welte and Yukler 1395 Vmperaturf' 1"(J process that occurs in any mature source roclc accompa00 0 IOC 3 50 nying the generation of hydrocarbons. On the basis of all the available data we have an understanding of the basin. sandy shale. Arrows sliow directions as determined from model study (same cross section as in Fig. 1 I I I I : I I : I parameters. The structural pattern is also very simple with some normal faults that have very small throws. At present. The basin studied is 3. sandy shale and sand. The initial time step can be very small and can be increased by a certain factor at successive time steps based on the numerical analysis technique used (Halepaska and Hartman. Figure 8 shows continuous sedimentation of a sequence of different sediments (shale. Permeability versus porosity relations are determined from available literature data and from core analysis. 11—Temperature-time relations at four locations along equation for sandy layers are computed from Berg's cross section in Figure 9.

48. The allowable errors were ± 8% in physical and thermal parameters. respectively. 1938a. Hubbert. C. Survey Water Supply Paper 1544-H. Munn. 16. p. 1909b. 59. Halepaska. 1971. Welte. M. p. Shaw. John Wiley and Sons. is 20. An introduction to the principles of the accumulation of petroleum. Analysis of error in groundwater modelling: PhD thesis.. maturity of organic matter. 67. 1920. From Lopatin's method as described previously.. 510 p. Rundschau. Petroleum Jour. 1. V. The science of petroleum. Geol. Oxford Univ. thus forming a closed system. Geology.. Geology. 911-924. Thermal influences on flow from a compressible porous medium: Water Resources Research. Therefore.500 m. 610-628. Survey Bull. Entrapment of petroleum under hydrodynamic conditions: AAPG Bull. N. 25. 538 p. v. Stallman. E. Bredehoeft. and accumulation of oil has been developed and applied to existing sedimentary basins. W. Jr. 960-979. 1939. I. 1979.. 1981. v. and coefficients of the maturity equation were made using sensitivity equations. Ser. p. Hanshaw. The low porosity and permeability of the limestone layers decrease the subsurface fluid movement into or out of the formations below it. Springer-Verlag. and 3. 63. Geomathematical and petrophysical studies in sedimentology. 12). Figure 9 illustrates an east-west cross section computed by the model through the center of the sedimentary basin.Y. T. N. p. The porosity versus depth relation is shown in Figure 10 at locations 1.. Some factors in oil accumulation: Inst. 209-215. p. Sensitivity analysis of groundwater flow systems and an application to a real case.. 1963. R.. p. 67-88. and F. 723-760. R. eds. Petroleum formation and occurrence: Berlin. and amount of petroleum in place. The theory of ground-water motion: Jour. p. V. pt.. 1: London. F. 3. Press. D. ± 2°C in temperature. 15. 4. The model results were computed with all available data on sedimentary thicknesses. 1967. p. 1097-1106. T. The science of petroleum. p. 2. R. 218-220. H. R. Problems or the origin. Capillary pressure in stratigraphic traps: AAPG Bull.. ment thickness of 4. v. Rich. 1976. 204.. p. Yukler. p.. C . 1978. W. p. v. H. Energy transport in thick sequences of compacting sediments: Geol. M. S. 1972. p. p. p. A. 390-400. B. The absence of water in certain sandstones of the Appalachian oil fields: Econ. p. Geology. Paaswell. Geology. 3. 1909a. 12. Function of carrier beds in long-distance migration of oil: AAPG Bull. in A. in Short papers on research in 1971: Kansas Geol.. v.. CONCLUSIONS A computer model to quantify generation. 1980. Sharp. R.. E. temperature. Tissot. 25. v. Numerical solution of the 3-dimensional heat flow. van E. p. SSR Izv.. 1: London. petroleum generated in this system cannot migrate out of it. at locations 1. M. we will present the model resuhs only along this cross section. A. Oxford Univ.. Mills. Cornford. M. 87. REFERENCES CITED Berg. v. Further notes on the hydraulic theory of oil migration and accumulation: AAPG Bull. 3. in Methods of collecting and interpreting ground-water data: U. 1948. pressure.. 37. C . 1958. lUing.. physical. 1917. Geology.y. p. Schowalter. Pergamon Press. and 23 m. D. The time of peak oil generation. J.S. 3. v. 201-225. and 4. the maturation of the organic matter. This is important for mass balance studies on the generation of petroleum. 1953. and P.. 1979. The anticlinal and hydraulic theories of oil and gas accumulation: Econ. 2. Geology. These results are then used to determine possible secondary migration directions. Hartman. 1968. Press. Welte. Dunstan et al.. America Bull. and amount of hydrocarbons generated are determined at each grid point as a function of time.. p. America Bull. 15. hydrodynamic and thermodynamic development of a sedimentary basin: Geol. N. Soc. 271-278. J.. v. Uzb. 1921. The migration of oil. v. Mechanisn of secondary hydrocarbon migration and entrapment: AAPG Bull. p. Univ. Geol. and M. 95-106. 1976. 337-345. p. J. where Rm is about 0. in A. On the maintenance of anomalous fluid pressure. Dunstan et al. in G. eds. 1931. initial physical and thermal parameters. 79. v. Application of organic geochemistry and quantitative analysis to petroleum origin and accumulation—An approach for a quantitative basin study. Fundamentals of soil mechanism: New York. Yukler. One-dimensional model to simulate geologic. v. E. 33-49. eds. 172-182.5228 x 10^ node points. p. Vitrinite reflectance of 0. This latter information is related to the existence of traps. 1938b. Lopatin. Thick sedimentary sequences: Geol.1396 Petroleum Origin and Accumulation Gibson. Bishop. Calculated compaction states of thick abnormally pressured shales: AAPG Bull. 3. 939-956. 1954-2026. The solution of this problem can be obtained by a fast computer with large memory. and accumulation of oil..7. For simplicity and discretion.. 247-371. 918-933. Equations 1. and 4 is shown in Figure 11. 1979.Y.. Temperature and geologic time as factors in coalification: Akad.. The progress of consolidation in a clay layer increasing in thickness with time: Geotechnique. H. 11-13.. p. 182 p. in terms of vitrinite reflectance (Rni)> is calculated as a function of time for the source rock (Fig. density. p. W. in Problems of petroleum geology: AAPG. D. 1923. 1-8.. E. A. K. W. Experimental studies of subsurface relationship in oil and gas fields: Econ. Welte. R. 1975. J. 785-944. Kansas. maturation of organic matter. specific heat. 141-157. and D.. Soc. generating 1.. and B. B. eds. 2. and thermal properties. migration. Gill and D. Taylor. Pa. 36-46. migration. Pergamon Press. . v. heat flux. 7. 1940. Figure 13 is a simplified example showing the computed secondary migration directions and possible locations of oil accumulations. and 4 are solved for this grid network and the pore pressure.. 213-225. 1934.. 2. 4. V. 63. 398-421. Merriam.. We used an IBM 370/168 for this problem. R. Nauk. v. and D. and ± \5% of petroleum in place. v.7 is not reached at location 4. 2. Moving underground water as a primary cause of the migration and accumulation of oil and gas: Econ. p. The temperature-time relation for the source rock at locations 1. Evolution of sedimentary basins from the standpoint of petroleum origin and accumulation—an approach for a quantitative basin study: Organic Geochemistry.. J. in D. computery and geology. 509-529. V. Zuckerman.. Origin and chemistry of petroleum: Elmsford. thermal conductivity. porosity. et al. temperature. v. ± 10% in maturity. Studies in the application of the anticlinal theory of oil and gas accumulation—Sewickley quadrangle. Necessary corrections in sedimentation rates. J. v. p. L. Econ. 1978.. v. Domenico. Computation of ground-water velocity from temperature data. p. v. E. V. Atkinson and J. 3: Elmsford.

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