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February 6, 2014

POLLING

MEMORANDUM

FR: Fritz Wenzel, President, Wenzel Strategies LLC RE: Survey of Likely Voters in South Carolina

Wenzel Strategies is a national research firm established in 2005 and based in Columbus, Ohio. Its client list includes some of the biggest names in Republican politics today, including U.S. Senator Rand Paul and RandPAC, as well as many U.S. Congressmen and several statewide officeholders across the country. It conducted a telephone survey of 623 randomly selected likely Republican Primary Election voters statewide February 3-4, 2014. It carries a confidence interval of 95% and a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points.

The Wenzel Strategies survey of likely Republican Primary Election voters in South Carolina shows that the support of incumbent U.S. Senator is below the key 50% level needed by a primary candidate to avoid a runoff, and that GOP voters are deeply split on his job performance in Washington. Just 38% said he deserves to be re-elected, while 49% said it is time for someone new. In a ballot test against four announced candidates, Graham wins 46% support, while state Sen. Lee Bright is supported by 17%. Nancy Mace and Richard Cash each won 5%, while Bill Connor has 4% support. Nearly one in four primary voters – 23% - said they were undecided on the question. While Graham leads by a wider margin among moderates and establishment conservatives, TEA Party conservatives statewide prefer Bright over Graham by a 29% to 23% margin, with all other candidates in the single digits among TEA Party voters. Statewide, TEA Party conservatives make up 46% of the Republican Primary electorate. While 48% of GOPers gave Graham positive job performance marks, 51% gave him negative marks for job performance, a troubling marker for any office-holder standing for reelection. Combined with the 38% who said he deserves re-election, Graham’s current standing in the minds of South Carolina Republican Primary Election voters is substantially vulnerable. Particularly troubling for Graham is the survey finding that just 16% of those who self-identified as TEA Party conservatives say he deserves to be re-election. Graham is seen favorably by 55% of voters, while 43% hold an unfavorable opinion of him. Lee Bright is seen favorably by 31% of voters, while 18% hold an unfavorable opinion of him. Fifty-one percent of voters do not yet know enough about Bright to have formed an opinion about him.

Other candidates in the poll are mostly unknown to the electorate. The survey shows that the so-called TEA Party movement that has developed over the past few years is held in high esteem, as 76% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of it, while just 17% said they have an unfavorable opinion of it.
Q: Do you think that Senator Lindsey Graham deserves to be re-elected, or do you think it is time for someone new? Graham Re-elect
Frequency DESERVES RE-ELECTION TIME FOR SOMEONE NEW Valid NOT SURE Total 81 623 13.0 100.0 13.0 100.0 100.0 236 305 Percent 38.0 49.0 Valid Percent 38.0 49.0 Cumulative Percent 38.0 87.0

Q: If you were voting today in the election for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate representing South Carolina, and the candidates were Lindsey Graham, Lee Bright, Nancy Mace, Bill Connor, and Richard Cash, for whom would you vote? SC Senate Ballot Test
Frequency GRAHAM BRIGHT MACE Valid CONNOR CASH NOT SURE Total 286 108 32 26 31 140 623 Percent 45.9 17.4 5.1 4.2 4.9 22.5 100.0 Valid Percent 45.9 17.4 5.1 4.2 4.9 22.5 100.0 Cumulative Percent 45.9 63.2 68.4 72.6 77.5 100.0

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