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Alpine Parents Coalition - Exhibit

AUSD Student Enrollment - Comparison
Þage 1 ol 6

Crowlng sLudenL enrollmenL ln earller years led Lhe Alplne dlsLrlcL Lo bulld a separaLe mlddle school
campus. –owever, slnce Lhe 2000/2001 school year, enrollmenL has been raLably, sLeadlly decllnlng lor
boLh mlddle school and elemenLary sLudenLs.

SLudles by a prolesslonal demographer
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lndlcaLe LhaL Lhe dlsLrlcL wlll reLurn Lo a luLure ol growLh ln Lhe
sLudenL populaLlon base, buL slow growLh. 1he sLudy shows also LhaL Lhe Spanlsh lmmerslon program
wlll help LhaL growLh, parLlcularly ln Lhe elemenLary schools - buL ln and ol lLsell noL remarkably so.


1
uollnka Croup, LLC May 9,2013, posLed on Lhe AÞC webslLe.
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AUSD Historical Student Decline
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Alpine Parents Coalition - Exhibit
AUSD Student Enrollment - Comparison
Þage 2 ol 6

Mlddle school enrollmenL wlll sag lor a lew more years, and Lhen evenLually recover somewhaL. 1he
lmpacL ol Spanlsh lmmerslon wlll also LranslaLe Lo a small benellL ln mlddle school enrollmenL a lew
years hence.

Comblned enrollmenL ls lorecasL Lo modesLly, organlcally, slowly grow lnLo Lhe luLure, benellclally
lmpacLed by Lhe Spanlsh lmmerslon program. –owever, mlddle school aLLendance by comparlson wlll
remaln baslcally llaL. And elemenLary school aLLendance ls noL lorecasL Lo reLurn Lo Lhe 2000/2001
levels.


ln Lhe luLure, !oan MacCueen Mlddle School lalls shorL ol lLs approdžlmaLely 800 sLudenL deslgn base by
abouL 200 sLudenLs.
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Combined Student Enrollment Projection
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Alpine Parents Coalition - Exhibit
AUSD Student Enrollment - Comparison
Þage 3 ol 6

1he elemenLary sLudenL populaLlon, whlle slowly growlng, never ƋulLe reLurns Lo Lhe nearly 1300
chlldren ln 2000/2001, and ln a decade hencelorLh sLlll has a modesL shorLlall ol abouL 123 sLudenLs.
Across Lhe 20 years lrom 2000/2001 Lhrough Lhe demographlc sLudy year ol 2022Ͳ2023, Alplne sullered
a lall ln sLudenL aLLendance mldͲperlod represenLlng a loss by LhaL Llme ol many mllllons ln annual
revenues. SLudenL aLLendance ls edžpecLed Lo organlcally grow agaln due Lo demographlc changes ln
area populaLlon, blrLh raLes and so on, and helped a blL Loo by Lhe Spanlsh lmmerslon program.


8uL aL Lhe end ol Lhe proũecLlon 10 years hence, sLudenL populaLlon remalns abouL 17й less Lhan Lhe
hlgh ln 2000/2001. Mlddle school aLLendance sLops erodlng, buL never really recovers.
1he demographlc analysls also porLends changes ln enrollmenLs aL each elemenLary school, wlLh one
decllnlng, one modesLly lmprovlng, and Lhe oLher sLrongly growlng. 1haL porLends lnLeresLlng plannlng
conseƋuences lor Lhe schools and aL Lhe dlsLrlcL level. 8uL LhaL ls noL Lhe locus ol Lhls paper. –owever,
Lhe lmpllcaLlon ol conLlnued underͲuLlllnjed classrooms aL all grade levels lnvlLes lnnovaLlve Lhlnklng and
soluLlons.
ouldn usp tlr’ spa rusrpym fsgudgp m’p nftmxfrm-t z?fdfm– mu zrrukkunzmp m’p pzxd– uypxzmfuszd –pzxt u8
zs 1dyfsp ’f2’ tr’uud ?– z rustudfnzmfus u8 p,ftmfs2 ?lm lsnpx!lmfdfnjpn tr’uud rzkyltpt͍
ÞrospecLs ol an Alplne hlgh school would cerLalnly wheL Lhe appeLlLe ol parenLs and sLudenLs Lowards
reLurnlng Lo Lhe dlsLrlcL, or even movlng lnLo Lhe dlsLrlcL͊

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Alpine Parents Coalition - Exhibit
AUSD Student Enrollment - Comparison
Þage 4 ol 6

1aklng Lhe year 2013Ͳ2016 as Lhe basellne ;Lhe school year whlch Lhe demographlc sLudy proũecLs as Lhe
year ol leasL aLLendanceͿ as a percenL ol sLudenL enrollmenL, Lhe rapld decllne ln aLLendance Lhese pasL
years ls ƋulLe apparenL. 1he slow reLurn Lo hlgher sLudenL enrollmenL golng lorward ls also shown lor
whaL lL ls - modesL growLh only.

ln Calllornla, sLaLe lundlng Lo school dlsLrlcLs has been lundamenLally llnked Lo Lhe number ol sLudenLs a
school dlsLrlcL has. ln Lhe pasL under Lhe ͞8evenueLlmlL͟ sysLem, Lhe sLaLe dlsLrlbuLed Lhe vasL maũorlLy
ol lundlng based on a lldžed amounL per sLudenL per year across all dlsLrlcLs accordlng Lo Lhe number ol
sLudenLs enrolled.
Alplne͛s sLudenL populaLlon preclplLously decllned ln Lhe perlod 2000/2001 Lhrough 2013/2014.
ConseƋuenLly, sLaLe lundlng Lo Lhe Alplne dlsLrlcL also preclplLously decllned. 1he dlsLrlcL has been ln
llscal crlsls year over year lor a decade. Looklng back, perhaps Lhe crlsls was somewhaL masked by some
ol Lhe wellͲlnLenLloned shorLͲLerm bandage lldžes Laken. All along, Lhe varlous salary cuLs, work day
delerrals and so on have been Lemporary measures provldlng a shorL Llme ͞lldž͟ Lo Lhe sysLemlc problem
ol decllnlng enrollmenL.
Calllornla͛s Covernor has commlLLed Lo Lrylng Lo resLore school lundlng by closlng Lhe gap edžlsLlng
beLween lundlng levels ln 2008Ͳ2009 when Lhe recesslon began unLll now - a perlod ln whlch Lhe sLaLe
has sLaggered Loo lrom lLs own recesslonͲcaused revenue decllnes.

Alpine Parents Coalition - Exhibit
AUSD Student Enrollment - Comparison
Þage 5 ol 6

LasL year, Lhe LeglslaLure passed new laws replaclng Lhe 8evenueLlmlL sysLem wlLh a new school lundlng
sysLem Lermed ͞Local ConLrol lundlng lormula͟. 1hls new sysLem ls lundamenLally lnLended Lo dlrecL
Lhe sLaLe͛s lncremenLal ablllLy Lo provlde more lundlng Lo schools Lowards Lhose dlsLrlcLs havlng
dlllerenL eLhnlc, language and lamlly economlc needs Lhan Alplne. 1he LeglslaLure ũudged LhaL Lhe sLaLe
was parLlcularly lalllng ln Lhe educaLlon ol such communlLles, and chose Lo deal wlLh Lhe problem by an
lnLenLlon Lo Lhrow more money aL lL. 8uL Lhe money would be under more ͞local conLrol͟, provldlng
dlsLrlcLs wlLh more lledžlblllLy Lo spend lL ln Lhe manner Lhey deem mosL needed ln Lhelr communlLles.
1haL lnLenLlon does noL acLually help Alplne much. Whlle LCll wlll hopelully esLabllsh a somewhaL
hlgher per sLudenL paymenL Lo all dlsLrlcLs as a baseͲload ol sLaLe lundlng, Lhe LeglslaLure lnLends LhaL
Lhe vasL bulk ol any new school lundlng be dlrecLed prlmarlly aL dlsLrlcLs wlLh demographlcs/needs lar
dlllerenL Lhan Alplne͛s.
Alplne cannoL look solely Lo subsLanLlal new sLaLe lundlng under LCll. LCll wlll help, buL lL wlll noL be a
panacea lor Alplne͛s lundamenLal low sLudenL enrollmenL problem.
1herelore, Lhe 2013/2014 school year salary cuLs and benellL caps - whlle slgnlllcanL and hurLlul Lo all
employees - may be shorLͲLerm ͞lldžes͟ Loo.
unLll Lhe underlylng problem ol sLudenL enrollmenL ls reversed, sp sr udengap lor all sLakeholders Lo plan
carelully, Lo avold overͲreachlng on Lhe basls ol unwarranLed edžpecLaLlons. 8udgeL plannlng golng
lorward musL be lledžlble, glvlng conslderaLlon Lo resLorlng lundlng ol Lhe edžpanslon/resLoraLlon ol
dlsLlncLlve Leachlng programs LhaL draw new sLudenLs, whlle allowlng Lhe adeƋuaLe malnLenance and
repalr ol decaylng bulldlngs, eƋulpmenL, and unͲkepL campus grounds.
The real and sustainable solution for Alpine is an aggressive, positive campaign to recapture lost
clients (students and parents).
1he challenge lor Alplne wlll be Lo dgmgdrg pog ag’lpsmg ŵgrrl’sa’ LhaL has domlnaLed Lhe publlc
dlscourse Lhese pasL several monLhs, and Lo dgrpŽdg pog nsrpdsĐp͛r pdlnspsŽalů uŽrspsmg sŵl’g Lo lLs
resldenLs and Lo Lhe resldenLs ol surroundlng communlLles.
ÞarL ol poslLlve lmaglng lncludes reͲlnsLaLlng lnsLrucLlonal programs and acLlvlLles LhaL once made Lhe
dlsLrlcL dlsLlncLlve, LhaL drew parenLs and sLudenLs Lowards Lhe dlsLrlcL. Alplne needs more creaLlvlLy ln
lLs ollerlngs Lo lncrease lLs draw. More lnsLrucLlonal programs havlng Lhe enrollmenLͲbulldlng lmpacL ol
Lhe Spanlsh lmmerslon program need Lo be developed and edžecuLed. All Lhls wlll reƋulre an allocaLlon
ol preclous lundlng.
AddlLlonally, Alplne musL begln Lo address delerred malnLenance as Lhe physlcal needs ol Lhe bulldlngs
and supporL lnlrasLrucLure are LranslaLlng Lo a vlsually decreplL look. unlorLunaLely, Lhls Loo wlll reƋulre
money.


Alpine Parents Coalition - Exhibit
AUSD Student Enrollment - Comparison
Þage 6 ol 6


1sn fm ruldn ?p m’zm durzd p88uxmt mu ptmz?dft’ z ’f2’ tr’uud fs 1dyfsp ʹ ypx’zyt m’xul2’ lsf8frzmfus 8xuk z
Ŭ!ϴ nftmxfrm fsmu z Ŭ!ϭϮ nftmxfrm͕ zsn ’utmpn fs fmt pzxd– –pzxt zm p,ftmfs2͕ rustudfnzmpn͕ lsnpx!lmfdfnjpn
rzkyltpt ʹ kz– apdd tpxgp mu ?udtmpx psxuddkpsm 2xuam’ zsn us2ufs2 8ftrzd tltmzfsz?fdfm– muu͊
AUSD does achieve truly great teaching, and all stakeholders need to now shout out the positives of
attending Alpine’s schools.