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Association of Temperature Change with Raidative Forcing and its Impact; a Micro Level Analysis on Bangladesh

Md Mahfuzul Haque1

To understand the temperature trend in micro level on Bangladesh, the research analyzed the Temperature Change and Raidative Forcing data of Bangladesh is two section; 1st section contains the analysis of the data obtained from the weather srations for north western part (Bogra, Dinajpur, Pabna, Jessor, Rajshahi and Rangpur) of Bangladesh and other section contains the seven (Khulna, Sathkhir, Maijhdi Court, Chittagong and Barisal) stations data which locates close to coastal southern part of Bangladesh. Bangladesh is an agricultural country while north western part of Bangladesh is well known as food storage but in recent years the temperature in this part is showing erratic character. Table: Temperature trend and Radiative Forcing in Bangladesh
Region of Bangladesh Annual Historical Radiative forcing (RF) (Watts/m2) 0.008 0.007 Annual Combined RF (Watts/m2) 0.003 0.001 Decadal RF (Watts/m2 in 2005) Seasonal Temperat ure Temperat ure 1881 Temperature in 2000 Predicted Temperat ure in 2050 21.89C 21.55C Predicted Temperat ure in 2099 24.13C 25.05C

North Western Part Southern Coastal Part

0.2132 0.4750

26.20 C 27.52 C

20.11 C 19.36C

20.27C 20.10C

North Western Part: Observation about the trend of historical RF in North Western Bangladesh is; in an average it is increasing at the rate of 0.008 Watts/m2 from 1881 to 2011. According to the data, the RF was 0.007 Watts/m2 in the year 1881. The forcing has increased significantly from the mid 19th century and it became 1.559 Watts/m2 in 2011. Simultaneously the trend of annual combined RF data (http://climatemodels.uchicago.edu/timeseries/#ZtBBDCH) indicates the increase of the forcing. From 1831to 2011the rate of average annual increase is 0.003 Watts/m2. On the other hand, the decadal change also represents the increase of RF. It was 0.0693 Watts/m2 in the year 1935 and reached to 0.2132 Watts/m2 in 2005 (Figure-1 &2). Based on the seasonal data it is found that temperature remains lowest in the month of January which is 15.2608 C while it reaches its peak in July when it becomes 26.2098 C. However, to visualize the difference, GCM-CCSM4 model under AR5 Climate Model Mapper is used. In the map the annual mean temperature represents that the temperature was 20.11 C in 1881 and became 20.27C in 2000. The model predicts, it will be 21.89C and 24.13C in 2025 and 2099 respectively (Map 01: GCSM4 Annual Mean Surface Temperature 1881, 2000, 2050 and 2099). Southern Coastal Part: The southern part of the country is showing slight low trend of change than northern Part (Figure 3 & 4). The annual rate of increase of RF is 0.007 Watts/m2. On the other hand Annual Combined RF is 0.001 Watts/m2 which is slower than northern part. Annual combined RF represents the increasing trend over time (http://climatemodels.uchicago.edu/timeseries/#BaiBBBCBB) though it is slower than north
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Writer is Research Associate at Transparency International Bangladesh

western part. In the year 1900 the combined RF was -0.1506 Watts/m2 while it became 0.1894 in 1950 and became more than double in 2000 and reached to 0.4821 Watts/m2. Upward trend is seen also seen decadal RF where it was 0.2084 Watts/m2 in 1950 and it became 0.4750 Watts/m2 in 2005. Seasonal temperature indicates that may is the month when highest temperature 27.52 C prevails. GCM model map indicates that the surface temperature was 19.36C in 1881 which became 20.10C in 2000. Prediction suggests that it will be 20.05C within the year 2099 (Map 02: GCSM4 Annual Mean Surface Temperature 1881, 2000, 2050 and 2099). Therefore it is predicted that total 3.86 C temperatures will be rise from 2000 to 2099 which will adversely impact the traditional agriculture of the agro region. The geographical distributions of RF mechanism vary within and beyond the region. In Bangladesh it may vary due to direct or indirect effect of global warming though the country has very small contribution in CO2 emission.

-0.2

1881 1890 1899 1908 1917 1926 1935 1944 1953 1962 1971 1980 1989 1998 2007

-0.4 -0.6 Figure 04: Data Composite (Sourthern Coastal Part) 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 1891 1897 1903 1909 1915 1921 1927 1933 1939 1945 1951 1957 1963 1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999 y = 0.001x R = 0.082

Figure 03: Historical Radiative Forcing (Sourthern Part of Bangladesh) 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 y = 0.007x R = 0.685

1880 1887 1894 1901 1908 1915 1922 1929 1936 1943 1950 1957 1964 1971 1978 1985 1992 1999 2006

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1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0

Figure 01: Average Historical Radiative Forcing (Northern Western Part) y = 0.008x R = 0.688

Figure 02: Data Composite (North Western Part 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 y = 0.003x R = 0.027

Temperature Map 01: Northern Region

Temperature Map 02: Southern Region

However, the small increase of RF observed in the research indicates the slight difference of RF and temperature in between two parts of Bangladesh. In conclusion it can be said that high surface temperature has been accelerated in combined with methane from agricultural field and agricultural aerosol which has contributed the northern western part to become bit high in temperature than southern part. So it can be said that RF is impacting on temperature change in micro level which is also impacting the precipitation in recent years.

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