Clifford S. Asness, Andrea Frazzini, and Lasse H. Pedersen *
This draft: October 9, 2013
Abstract
We define a quality security as one that has characteristics that, allelseequal, an investor should be willing to pay a higher price for: stocks that are safe, profitable, growing, and well managed. Highquality stocks do have higher prices on average, but not by a very large margin. Perhaps because of this puzzlingly modest impact of quality on price, highquality stocks have high riskadjusted returns. Indeed, a qualityminusjunk (QMJ) factor that goes long highquality stocks and shorts lowquality stocks earns significant riskadjusted returns in the U.S. and globally across 24 countries. The price of quality – i.e., how much investors pay extra for higher quality stocks – varies over time, reaching a low during the internet bubble. Further, a low price of quality predicts a high future return of QMJ. Finally, controlling for quality resurrects the otherwise moribund size effect.
*
Andrea Frazzini is at AQR Capital Management, Two Greenwich Plaza, Greenwich, CT 06830, email: andrea.frazzini@aqr.com; web: http://www.econ.yale.edu/~af227/. Cliff Asness is at AQR Capital Management, Two Greenwich Plaza, Greenwich, CT 06830. Lasse H. Pedersen is at New York University, Copenhagen Business School, AQR Capital Management, CEPR and NBER, 44 West Fourth Street, NY 100121126; email: lpederse@stern.nyu.edu; web: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~lpederse/. We thank Antti Ilmanen, Ronen Israel, Johnny Kang, John Liew, Toby Moskowitz, Per Olsson, and Scott Richardson for helpful comments and discussions as well as participants in the SIFR Institute of Financial Research Conference on ReThinking Beta.
Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2312432
When did our field stop being “asset pricing” and become “asset expected returning?” … Markettobook ratios should be our lefthand variable, the thing we are trying to explain, not a sorting characteristic for expected returns. – Cochrane, Presidential Address, American Finance Association, 2011
The asset pricing literature in financial economics studies the drivers of returns, but, while linked, the economic consequences of market efficiency ultimately depend on prices, not returns, as emphasized by Summers (1986) and Cochrane (2011). Do the highest quality firms command the highest price so that these firms can finance their operations and invest? To address this question, we define quality as characteristics that investors should be willing to pay a higher price for, everything else equal. We show that quality is priced, that is, investors pay more for firms with higher quality characteristics. However, the explanatory power of quality for prices is limited, presenting a puzzle for asset pricing. This puzzle for asset prices is analogous to the famous puzzle of the low R2 of asset returns presented by Roll (1984, 1988). Consistent with the limited pricing of quality, highquality stocks have historically delivered high riskadjusted returns while lowquality junk stocks delivered negative riskadjusted returns. Hence, a qualityminusjunk (QMJ) portfolio that invests long quality stocks and shorts junk stocks produces high riskadjusted returns. Further, we find that the price of quality (the marginal amount extra investors pay for higher quality characteristics) has varied over time as the market has sometimes put a larger or smaller price premium on quality stocks vs. junk stocks. For instance, the price of quality was particularly low during the internet bubble. Since prices and returns are linked, the price of quality predicts the future return to the QMJ factor. Lastly, we show that QMJ has broader asset pricing implications, including resurrecting the size effect. To apply the general definition of quality, we must identify stock characteristics that should command a higher price. Gordon’s growth model presents a simple framework to get
Quality Minus Junk  Asness, Frazzini, and Pedersen  Page 2
Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2312432
intuition for the natural quality characteristics. Indeed, rewriting Gordon’s growth model, we can express a stock’s pricetobook value (P/B) as follows:1
We scale prices by book values to make them more stationary over time and in the cross section. The four righthand side variables form the basis for our definition of quality. These variables are intuitive and extend beyond the Gordon model in terms of their relevance for stock prices.2 For each quality characteristic, we consider several measures in order to have a robust analysis and ensure that the explanatory power of quality on price (or the lack thereof) is not driven by a specific measurement choice:
i.
Profitability. Profitability is the profits per unit of book value. All else equal, more profitable companies should command a higher stock price. We measure profits in several ways, including gross profits, margins, earnings, accruals and cash flows, and focus on each stock’s average rank across these metrics.
ii.
Growth. Investors should also pay a higher price for stocks with growing profits. We measure growth as the prior fiveyear growth in each of our profitability measures.
iii.
Safety. Investors should also pay, allelseequal, a higher price for a stock with a lower required return, that is, a safer stock. What should enter into required return is still a very contentious part of the literature. We do not attempt to resolve those issues here, rather we take a simple common sense approach. We consider both returnbased measure of safety (e.g., market beta and volatility) and fundamentalbased measures
1
We rewrite the Gordon model simply as


.
2
Equation (1) is a special case of the general presentvalue relation. We use the Gordon model to simplify
notation but the same intuition applies to the general presentvalue relation. Quality Minus Junk  Asness, Frazzini, and Pedersen  Page 3
while profitability and growth are unambiguously associated with higher prices. Further. Interestingly. However. Quality Minus Junk . Management’s agency problems are diminished if free cash flows are reduced through higher dividends (Jensen (1986)). Payout. if a higher payout is associated with a lower future profitability or growth. stocks with low leverage. but a higher payout should be positive when we hold all other factors constant. we first run crosssectional regressions of pricetobook on each stock’s overall quality score.S. Having all four quality measures separately modestly increases the R2. respectively. Frazzini. and highpayout stocks continue on average to display these characteristics over the following five or ten years. We show that this is indeed the case. Both in the long and broad sample. growing. still leaving unexplained a large amount of the cross sectional distribution of prices. low volatility of profitability. This characteristic is determined by management and can be seen as a measure of shareholder friendliness. The payout ratio is the fraction of profits paid out to shareholders. profitable. Payout is an example of how each of these measures is about their marginal effect. that is. We test the pricing of quality over a long sample of U. the explanatory power of quality on price is limited as the average R2 is only 12% in the long sample and 6% in the broad sample. they need to be measured in advance and predict future quality characteristics. then this should not command a higher price. the analogue of the size effect on returns (Banz (1981)). iv.Asness. they need to be persistent. We also consider both net payout as well as issuance (dilution). To evaluate the pricing of quality. and low credit risk). When we also control for the firm’s size and past 12month stock returns. we find that higher quality is significantly associated with higher prices.g. the crosssectional R2 increases to. Indeed. and Pedersen . larger firms are more expensive controlling for quality. 31% and 26%. stocks from 1956 to 2012 and a broad sample of stocks from 24 developed markets from 1986 to 2012..Page 4 . For the market to rationally put a price on these quality characteristics. safe. We also regress the pricetobook on the four quality measures separately and in a joint regression.of safety (e. all else being equal.
. The difference in their riskadjusted returns (i. To examine these potential explanations. Quality Minus Junk . We find that highquality stocks have significantly higher raw returns than junk stocks. (b) market prices are based on superior quality characteristics than the ones we consider.g.safety is mixed and even negative controlling for size and past returns. that is. We then construct a QMJ factor with a methodology that follows that of Fama and French (1993) and Asness and Frazzini (2013). an inability to lever). positive alpha. and (c) the quality characteristics are correlated to risk factors not captured in our risk adjustments (so while the quality measure alone might command a higher P/B.3 This QMJ factor (as well as its largecap only and smallcap only components) delivers positive returns in 23 out of 24 countries that we study and highly significant riskadjusted returns in our long and broad sample..vs. value. and size exposures. quality) to each other in a potential nightmare of choices and dimensionality. and Pedersen . 3 As noted by Fama and French (2013) we can chose to orthogonalize each factor (size. we first consider the returns of high.Page 5 . QMJ portfolios have negative market. relatively small residual risk and QMJ returns are high during market downturns. price. lowquality stocks. 4factor alphas) is even larger since highquality stocks have relatively lower market. if anything QMJ exhibits a mild positive convexity. There could be several potential reasons for the limited explanatory power of quality on prices: (a) market prices fail to fully reflect these characteristics for reasons linked to behavioral finance or constraints (e. or to to construct our factors more simply allowing some correlation among them. and stocks with high payout appear to command a lower. value. We sort stocks into ten deciles based on their quality score and consider the valueweighted return in each portfolio. momentum. We choose the latter. The factor is long the top 30% highquality stocks and short the bottom 30% junk stocks within the universe of large stocks and similarly within the universe of small stocks. presenting a challenge to riskbased explanations relying on covariance with market crises. Frazzini. Rather than exhibiting crash risk. not a higher.Asness. it benefits from flight to quality during crises. the risk increase we fail to capture could imply an offsetting lower one).e. size. value and momentum exposures than junk stocks.
QMJ is buying and selling based on quality characteristics irrespective of stock prices. This makes sense as quality is positively associated with future returns. We show that including quality on the righthandside resurrects the formerly moribund size effect. in late 2002 (after the Enron and WorldCom scandals). shrinking. This concept goes back at least to Graham and Dodd (1934) who stated that “investment must always the price as well as the quality of the security. Frazzini.It is interesting to consider how the pricing of quality varies over time: Each month. The price of quality was also relatively low leading into the 1987 crash and leading into the Global Financial Crisis of 20072009. the two concepts can be combined.” Naturally. While SMB has an insignificant alpha of 13 basis points per month controlling for the other Quality Minus Junk . Prices and returns are naturally connected. Further. we show what happens when we switch things around and put QMJ on the righthandside to help explain other factors. We note that the QMJ strategy of buying profitable. and negatively correlated with value. while HML is buying based on stock prices irrespective of quality. Following each of these three eyeopening events. Last. and in early 2009 (during the height of the banking crisis). consistent with the finding in the accounting literature that accounting information can improve value investing (e. value investing is improved by QARP.Asness. we crosssectionally regress pricetobook on quality and consider the time series of these crosssectional regression coefficients that reflect the pricing of quality at each time. on average. safe. the price of quality increased. lowyielding stocks is very different from the standard value strategy HML (in fact the two are negatively correlated). just like QARP is stronger than HML alone. the smallminusbig (SMB) factor is highly negatively correlated to the strong quality factor since small firms are junky and large firms are high quality. a higher price of quality is naturally associated with a lower return on buying highquality stocks. Consistent with conventional wisdom. Indeed. Naturally. growing. reaching highs in late 1990 (first gulf war). and Pedersen . and we show that the price of quality negatively predicts the future return on QMJ. controlling for quality has a surprisingly significant effect on the size factor. We find that controlling for quality makes the value effect stronger. risky.Page 6 . the price of quality reached its lowest level in February 2000 during the height of the internet bubble. that is.. high payout stocks while shorting unprofitable. Frankel and Lee (1998) and Piotroski (2000)). which we call quality at a reasonable price (QARP).g.
namely that all these effects are about the outperformance of highquality stocks. Pontiff and Woodgate (2008).standard factors. and Scholes (1972). low beta is associated with high alpha for stocks. Richardson. See also the overview by Cochrane (2011) and references therein. when comparing stocks of similar quality. our framework illustrates a unifying theme. this increases to a highly significant alpha of 64 basis points (tstatistic of 6. smaller stocks significantly outperform larger ones on average. credit. and firms with high accruals are more likely to suffer subsequent earnings disappointments and their stocks tend to underperform peers with low accruals (Sloan (1996). and Szilagyi (2008)). and their dividend growth variable can be interpreted an as aggregate quality variable. Pontiff. Soliman. Campbell and Shiller (1988) consider the overall market. Sloan. (iii) how the current price of quality predicts the future return on quality factors. In summary. Ohlson (1980). growing firms outperform firms with poor growth (Mohanram (2005)). Penman. and Vuolteenaho (2009) consider how cashflow betas affect price levels and longrun returns. and Watanabe (2009)). (iv) how our quality framework unifies a number of Quality Minus Junk . Our paper is also related to the literature that considers how the pricetobook predicts future returns and future fundamentals based on the presentvalue relationship. and futures (Black. stocks that repurchase tend to do well (Baker and Wurgler (2002). which corresponds to our finding in price space that larger firms are more expensive. but we complement the literature by studying (i) how quality affect price multiples and how much of the crosssectional variation of price multiples can be explained by quality. It has been documented that stocks with high profitability outperform (NovyMarx (2013)). firms with high credit risk tend to underperform (Altman (1968). Cohen. Hilscher. most of the characteristics that we study are wellknown accounting variables. A number of papers study returnbased anomalies. and Pedersen . and Tuna (2005)). Polk. and Richardson. While these papers are very different and appear disconnected. Jensen.Page 7 . McLean. Vuolteenaho (2002) and Fama and French (2006) consider individual stocks. Frazzini and Pedersen (2013)). Our paper is related to a large literature. and we link returns and prices. In other words. firms with low leverage have high alpha (George and Hwang (2010). but they do not consider the pricing of other quality measures.39). (ii) how the price of quality varies over time. bonds. and Tuna (2007)). Campbell.Asness. Frazzini.
Section 1 presents our data and quality measures. Frazzini. The 24 markets in our sample correspond to the countries belonging to the MSCI World Developed Index as of December 31. remains open. The appendix contains a number of additional results and robustness checks. Stock returns and accounting data are from the union of the CRSP tape and the Quality Minus Junk . quality is sticky as would be necessary for it to be priced). Section 3 analyzes the price of quality. presenting a challenge to riskbased explanations. 1. We report summary statistics in Table I. as always.Page 8 . Section 8 shows how QMJ affects the standard factors. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. and Pedersen . is the return to QMJ so high? Our results are consistent with a too low market price of quality and inconsistent with an alternative view that the market prices simply reflect better measures of quality due to the high returns of QMJ. Section 2 shows that ex ante quality forecasts future quality (i. Section 4 considers the return of quality stocks and Section 5 the return of QMJ. Data Sources Our sample consists of 39.Asness. Section 6 connects the current price and future return of quality. and (v) how a unified quality factor can be used in asset pricing more broadly and. Our evidence presents a puzzle: why is the price of quality (the amount investors are willing to pay for higher quality characteristics) positive but still quite low and why. Section 9 concludes.e. our QMJ factor has a negative market beta and factor loadings and performs well in recessions and crises.308 stocks covering 24 countries between June 1951 and December 2012. importantly. how it resurrects the size effect. presumably a related or even the same question. Section 7 considers QARP.anomalies. Methodology. 2012.. Furthermore. Data. and Quality Measures In this section we describe our data sources and the methodology for constructing our quality measures. although that possibility.
and are measured as excess returns above the U. We focus on a long sample of U.XpressFeed Global database. To avoid data mining.S. As shown in Table I. do not include any currency hedging.S. Delisting returns are not available for our international sample. We are interested in identifying stocks of profitable. stable. Treasury bill rate. Safety and Payout. the first available date for our regressions and return test is June 1956.6 We assign individual issues to the corresponding market based on the location of the primary exchange. stocks and a broad sample of global stocks.S. All returns are in USD. Frazzini. We then average the four proxies to compute a single quality score. with the exception of Canada (whose coverage starts in 1982) for most countries XpressFeed’s Global coverage starts in 1986. Our broad sample of global data includes all available common stocks on the union of the CRSP tape and the XpressFeed Global database for 24 developed markets. Quality Score We use a variety of quality measures. Our long sample of U.S. If the delisting is performancerelated. securities is June 1951 since accounting data starts in fiscal year 1950. data includes all available common stocks on the merged CRSP/XpressFeed data. For companies traded in multiple markets we use the primary trading vehicle identified by XpressFeed. and Pedersen . If a firm is delisted but the delisting return is missing.Asness. safe and high payout companies. we follow Shumway (1997) and assume a 30% delisting return. 5 The CRSP/XpressFeed database’s first available date for U. 4 We include delisting returns when available in CRSP.4 We follow the standard convention and align accounting variables at the end of the firm’s fiscal year ending anywhere in calendar year t1 to June of calendar year t. Our sample runs from January 1986 to December 2012. 6 Quality Minus Junk .Page 9 . Growth. 5 Common stocks are identified by a CRSP share code (SHRCD) of 10 or 11. we use a broad set of measures for each aspect of quality and average them to compute four composite proxies: Profitability. However. we investigate the reason for disappearance. since some of our variables are fiveyear growth measures. Common stocks are identified by an XpressFeed issue code (TPCI) of 0. Our results are qualitatively robust to the specific choices of factors.
we combine the four measures into a single quality score: Quality Minus Junk . Specifically. and the fraction of earnings composed of cash (i. ) (3) denotes fiveyear growth. each month we convert each variable into ranks and standardize to obtain a zscore. let ranks.Having multiple measures of quality makes our finding of a low explanatory power of quality on prices all the more surprising. low leverage (LEV) . return on equity (ROE).e. low idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL). gross margin (GMAR). Our quality measures are constructed as follows (details are in the appendix). for each profitability measure. Then the zscore of x is given by are the cross sectional mean and standard deviation of r. We define safe securities as companies with low beta (BAB).g.Asness. we measure growth as the fiveyear prior growth in profitability. We measure profitability by gross profits over assets (GPOA). Our the average of the individual zscores: ( ) (2) Similarly. where score is .g. DISS) and total net payout over profits (NPOP): ( ) (5) Finally. we definite fiveyear growth as the change in the numerator (e. and be the variable of interest and be the vector of . ACC). profits) divided by the lagged denominator (e. In order to put each measure on equal footing and combine them. and Pedersen . return on assets (ROA). Frazzini. assets).Page 10 . low bankruptcy risk (OScore and ZScore) and low ROE volatility (EVOL): (4) We define our payout score using equity and debt net issuance (EISS. averaged across over measures of profitability: ( Here. More formally. low accruals. cash flow over assets (CFOA).
(6) Portfolios Our portfolio analysis relies on two sets of test factors: qualitysorted portfolios and qualityminusjunk factors (hereafter. QMJ factors are constructed as the intersection of six valueweighted portfolios formed on size and quality. Portfolios are valueweighted. U. and Pedersen . For International securities the size breakpoint is the 80th percentile by country (which in the U. The QMJ portfolio construction follows Fama and French (1992. We consider alphas with respect to a Quality Minus Junk . To form qualitysorted portfolios. At the end of each calendar month. the size breakpoint is the median NYSE market equity.S. The QMJ factor return is the average return on the two highquality portfolios minus the average return on the two lowquality (junk) portfolios: mall ualit ig un (7) in small stocks in big stocks Separate subportfolios based on the four components of quality (profitability.Asness. we assign stocks in each country to ten qualitysorted portfolios. at the end of each calendar month.S. Frazzini. For U. corresponds approximately to NYSE breakpoints). sorts are based on NYSE breakpoints. Portfolios are valueweighted.S.Page 11 . 1993 and 1996) and Asness and Frazzini (2013). and rebalanced every calendar month to maintain value weights. and rebalanced every calendar month to maintain value weights. safety and payout score) are constructed in a similar manner. securities. first sorting on size. For both approaches. we assign stocks to two sizesorted portfolios based on their market capitalization. we form one set of portfolios in each country and compute global portfolios by weighting each country’s portfolio by the country’s total (lagged) market capitalization. refreshed every calendar month. QMJ factors). growth. refreshed every calendar month. then on quality. We use conditional sorts.
econ. Frazzini. stock returns should be unpredictable (or only predictable due to risk premia) not that quality itself should be unpredictable. Table II shows that. UMD). growth. 1993. The standard errors are adjusted for heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation with a lag length of five years (Newey and West (1987)). by picking stocks that were profitable. and Pedersen . We report the time series average of the valueweighted cross sectional means. size (smallminusbig. SMB). 1996) and Asness and Frazzini (2013). since prices should reflect quality.Page 12 . we succeed in picking stocks that display these characteristics in the future. yielding similarly consistent results. Ex Ante Quality Forecasts Fundamentals We start by showing that a stock’s quality is a persistent characteristic. That is. 7 The risk factors follow Fama and French (1992. Quality Minus Junk .edu/~af227/data_library. Table A1 in the appendix reports additional results: we sort firms separately using each component of our quality score (profitability. booktomarket (highminuslow. we sort stocks into ten portfolios by their quality scores (as defined in Section 1). The data can be downloaded at http://www. and well managed in the recent past. growing.Asness. HML). quality firms today remain high quality firms five and ten years into the future (conditional on survival) and we can reject the null hypothesis of no difference in each of quality characteristics up to ten years. safe. on average. in a forwardlooking rational market.domestic and global factors for the market (MKT). Each month.yale. Of course. prices should be related to future quality characteristics. predictability of quality is perfectly consistent with an efficient market – market efficiency says only that. We report a detailed description of their construction in the Appendix. Table II analyzes the predictability of quality as follows.7 2. This step is important when we turn to the central analysis of whether the high quality firms command higher prices since. safety and payout) and report the spread in each variable up to 10 years. The table then reports the valueweighted average of our quality measures across stocks in the portfolio at the time of the portfolio formation (time t) and in the subsequent ten years (t + 120 months).htm. and momentum (upminusdown.
profitability is the most persistent and.S. Specifically. we convert each variable into ranks by countryindustry and standardize to obtain a zscore by countryindustry pair. then the pricetobook increases by b standard deviations. while still surprisingly stable. each month. That is. In this case. quality is a persistent characteristic such that high quality today predicts future high quality. if quality improves by one standard deviation above its 8 Using (log) markettobook on the left hand side as opposed to zscores does not impact any of the results qualitatively. Standard errors are adjusted for heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation (Newey and West (1987)) with a lag length of 12 months. These fixed effects are implemented by varying the standardization universe of our zscores. The Price of Quality Given that quality can be measured in advance. 3.Page 13 . to implement countryindustry fixed effects. Every month. For brevity we only report results based on zscores. we run a crosssectional regression of the zscore of each stock i's markettobook (MB) ratio on its overall quality score. Using zscores limits the effect of outliers and it implies that the regression coefficient b has a simple interpretation: if quality improves by one standard deviation. b has the interpretation that. For both the U.Asness.To summarize. long and global sample. ualit 1).8 Panel A of Table III reports results of Fama and MacBeth (1973) regressions of prices on quality. we let and run the regression: (defined in Section (8) This regression tests whether high quality is associated with high prices in the cross section. Quality Minus Junk . we regress scaled prices on quality measures and we report time series averages of the cross sectional slope estimates. we now turn to the central question of how quality is priced: Do highquality stocks trade at higher prices than lowquality ones? To address this question. We run the regression with and without countryindustry fixed effects. growth and payout are the least persistent. Frazzini. and Pedersen .
The highest estimated price of quality is 0. in the univariate specification.Page 14 . the positive coefficients on the past returns simply reflect that high recent returns will raise prices while the book value has not had time to adjust. then the pricetobook increases by b standard deviations above its countryindustry mean. Quality explains only 12% of the cross sectional variation in prices in our U.Asness. We measure each of these controls as the zscore of their crosssectional rank for consistency and ease of interpretation of the coefficients. but both the magnitude and the significance of the coefficient on quality actually drops with the inclusion of controls. While theory does not provide specific guidance on what the R2 “should” be. Past returns have a positive effect on current prices. We see that larger firms are more expensive controlling for quality. possibly leading to the return effect observed by Banz. Indeed. The size effect could arise as large firms have less liquidity risk than small firms (Acharya and Pedersen (2005)) and thus we cannot dismiss that these higher prices are rational. the price of quality is positive both in the U. We include past returns to account for the fact that prices and book values are not measured at the same time. That is. and Pedersen . We also include controls for firm size and stock return over the prior year. 9 We see that the R2 increases markedly with these controls. This result is the analogue of the size effect on returns (Banz (1981).32 standard deviation change in its pricetobook score.32. see also Berk (1995)) expressed in terms of prices. Hence. even for the same quality. the explanatory power of quality on price appears limited. The maximum R2 is below 31% in all 9 See Asness and Frazzini (2013).S. This coefficients means that a one standard deviation change in a stock’s quality score is associated (in the cross section) with a 0. Frazzini. Quality Minus Junk . Columns (1)(8) in Table III panel A show that the price of quality b is generally positive: high quality firms command higher (scaled) prices. and global samples and across specifications with controls and fixed effects. sample and only 6% in our global sample. are more expensive.countryindustry mean. big firms. and it is highly statistically significant.S.
. (b) the 10 Regressing prices on safety alone and controlling for size and past returns also yields an (insignificant) negative price of safety. Panel B of Table III considers crosssectional regressions on each separate quality score. The surprisingly low price of safety is a pricebased analogue to the flat security market line (Black. and Scholes (1972) and Frazzini and Pedersen (2013)) and it is consistent with Black (1972) and Frazzini and Pedersen (2013) theory of leverage constraints. Frazzini.S. and 31% in the global sample but still leaving a large part of the cross section of prices unexplained. and Pedersen . reaching 40% in the U.Page 15 . The negative price of payout could be driven by reverse causality: firms that have high (low) prices may opportunistically issue (repurchase) shares.of these specifications. 4. Jensen. and the price of payout is consistently estimated to be negative. the price of safety is positive in a univariate regression but negative in the presence of other quality measures and controls. We would like to shed light on our finding that quality explains prices only to a limited extent: is this finding because of (a) limited market efficiency.10 It is natural that the market pays a price for profitability and growth. Quality Minus Junk .Asness. The return of quality stocks is important as it can help us further interpret our findings on the price of quality. univariately and multivariately: (9) We see that prices of profitability and growth are unambiguously positive. risky assets command higher prices (and lower returns) while safe assets have lower prices (and higher returns). The average R2 increases when we include all four quality components. The Return of Quality Stocks We turn from the pricing of quality to the closely related issue of the return of quality stocks. leaving the vast majority of cross sectional variation on prices unexplained. If investors are constrained from leveraging.
the Fama and French (1993) 3factor model (which includes the size factor SMB and the value factor HML in addition to the market factor MKT). Across our three risk models in our long U. and the 4factor model that also includes the momentum factor UMD (Jegadeesh and Titman (1993). these alphas are the intercepts from the following regression with the first 1. partly by construction.S. they would be strongly related to prices) or in some cases reverse causality. Table IV reports the returns of stocks sorted into ten deciles based on their quality score. Asness (1994). respectively.market uses superior quality measures (and. while (c) implies a univariate relation between quality and future returns which is reduced or eliminated by an effective risk model. sample. This higher outperformance arises because highquality stocks actually have lower market and factor exposures than lowquality stocks. Explanation (a) implies that highquality stocks have higher riskadjusted returns than lowquality stocks as investors are underpricing high quality characteristics. and Carhart (1997)). or (c) quality is linked to risk in a way not captured by our safety measure. When we control for market risk and other factor exposures.80 and 3. Adjusting by the CAPM alone materially strengthens our results as higher quality stocks are. if we observed these measures.22).Asness. Specifically.Page 16 . (b) implies no relation between our measured quality and ex post returns or at least a greatly attenuated one. a portfolio that is long high quality stocks and short low quality stocks earns average abnormal returns ranging from 71 to 97 basis points per month with associated Quality Minus Junk . or 4 righthandside variables included: (10) We see that excess returns increase almost monotonically in quality such that highquality stocks outperform lowquality stocks. showing that high quality stocks earn higher average returns than low quality stocks (between 47 and 68 basis points per month depending on the sample) and we can reject the null hypothesis of no difference in average returns (tstatistics ranging between 2. the CAPM 1factor model. the outperformance in the alpha of highquality stocks is in fact even larger. The rightmost column reports the return difference between the highest and lowest deciles and the associated tstatistic. lower beta stocks. and Pedersen . 3. Frazzini. The table reports both excess returns over Tbills and alphas with respect to.
tstatistics ranging between 4.92 and 9.02. In our broad global sample, we obtain similar results with abnormal returns between 89 to 112 basis points and tstatistics between 5.00 and 6.06. Our results are thus inconsistent with explanation (b) discussed above. Further, a simple risk explanation (c) is inconsistent with our finding that highquality stocks have lower market exposures than junk stocks, but we study risk in more detail by considering the performance of the QMJ factor.
5. Quality Minus Junk In this section we examine the returns of our QMJ factors. As described in Section 1 (Equation 7), QMJ is long the average of the short the average of the and and portfolios and
portfolios. We also construct long/short
factors based on each separate quality component using the same method. Hence, in addition to QMJ, we have quality factors based on profitability, safety, growth, and payout. Table V reports the correlations between the different quality components. The table reports the correlation both for the excess returns and for the abnormal returns relative to a 4factor model (i.e., the correlations of the regression residuals). We see that all of the pairwise correlations among the quality components are positive, except the correlation between growth and payout. The negative correlation reflects that higher payout is naturally associated with lower growth. The average pairwise correlation among the quality components is 0.40 in the US and 0.45 in the global sample, and 0.38 for abnormal returns in both samples. Hence, while the quality components measure different firm characteristics that investors should be willing to pay for, firms that are high quality in one respect tend to also be high quality in other respects. This did not have to be. Each of these variables, we argue, are quality measures investors should pay for at the margin, but they did not have to be related to one another. While theory is no guide here, we think these significant positive correlations lend support to our practical decision to combine these four thematic sets of measures as one quality variable. Table VI reports the performance of each of our quality factors in the US (panel A) and globally (panel B). Specifically, the table reports the average excess returns and the alphas with respect to the 1, 3, and 4 factor models. We see that each quality factor
Quality Minus Junk  Asness, Frazzini, and Pedersen  Page 17
delivers a statistically significant positive excess return and alpha with respect to the 1, 3, and 4factor models in the U.S. sample and significant 4factor alphas in the global sample as well (the 3 and 4factor results are quite similar as momentum, or UMD, does not change much). Naturally, the overall QMJ factor is the strongest or the four, with highly significant alphas in the U.S. and global samples. The abnormal returns are large in magnitude and highly statistically significant. In our U.S. long sample a QMJ portfolio that is long high quality stocks and short junk stocks delivers 1, 3, and 4factor abnormal returns of 55, 68, and 66 basis points per month (with corresponding tstatistics of 7.27, 11.10, and 11.20). Similarly, in our Global broad sample, the QMJ factor earns abnormal returns of 52, 61 and 45 basis points per month (with corresponding tstatistics of 5.75, 7.68, 5.50). Panels A and B of Table VI also report the riskfactor loadings for the 4factor model. We see that the QMJ factor has a significantly negative market and size exposures. That is, QMJ is long lowbeta and large stocks, while being short highbeta small ones. As would be expected, the safety factor has the most negative market exposure, though only growth attains a zero or small positive market beta, the other quality composites also show negative beta. The value exposure of QMJ is negative in the U.S. Since we expect that highquality stocks have high prices while the value factor HML is long cheap stocks, we would expect a negative HML loading. We see that the profitability, safety, and growth factors do have significantly negative HML loadings in the U.S. and global samples. The payout factor has a positive loading in the U.S. and global samples. As discussed above, this positive payout loading could be driven by cheap stocks endogenously choosing a low payout. Panel C of Table VI and Figure 1 report the performance of the QMJ factor across countries. Remarkably, the QMJ factor delivers positive returns and alphas in all but one of the 24 countries that we study, displaying a strikingly consistent pattern (with the only small negative being in New Zealand, one of the smallest countries in market capitalization and number of stocks). Furthermore 4factors alphas are statistically significant in 17 out of 24 countries which is striking given the fact that many individual countries have a small cross section of securities and a short time series. Figures 2 and 3 show the performance of the QMJ factor over time in the U.S. and global samples. Specifically, Figure 2 shows the cumulative return of the QMJ factor (plotted as the cumulative sum of excess returns to avoid compounding issues) and Figure 3 shows
Quality Minus Junk  Asness, Frazzini, and Pedersen  Page 18
the cumulative sum of QMJ’s 4factor riskadjusted returns (the sum of the monthly insample regression alpha plus the regression error). Clearly, the QMJ factor has consistently delivered positive excess returns and riskadjusted returns over time with no subsample driving our results. We report a series of robustness checks in the appendix. In Table A3 we split the sample in 20year subsamples and report QMJ returns by size (10 sizesorted based on NYSEbreakpoints). Table A4 and Figure A1 report results for large and small cap stocks within each country. Finally, Table A5 reports results for an alternative definition of the QMJ factor: we build a factor for each of the 22 quality measures we use and simply average the resulting portfolios returns to compute our profitability, growth, safety, payout and QMJ factors. All the results point in the same direction with consistency across size, time periods, countries and construction methodology: QMJ portfolios that are long high quality stocks and short junk stocks earn large and significant 1 , 3 and 4factor abnormal returns. The return evidence on the QMJ factors could potentially be consistent with both mispricing (quality stocks are underpriced and junk stocks are overpriced), or risk (quality stocks underperform junk stocks in bad states of the world). Although a full explanation of the driver of quality returns is beyond the scope of this paper, we can nonetheless provide some stylized facts that either explanation should generate in order to fit the available evidence. The evidence does not point toward compensation for tail risk as seen in Table VII. We compute the return of the QMJ factors during recession and expansions, during severe bear and bull markets (defined as total market returns in the past 12 months below 25% or above +25%), during periods of high and low market volatility (we measure volatility as the 1month standard deviation of daily returns of the CRSPvalue weighted index or the MSCIWorld index and split the sample in the 30% top and bottom time periods) and during periods of a large increase or drop in aggregate volatility ( again, we split the sample into the 30% top and bottom time periods in terms of the 1month change in volatility). We find no evidence of compensation for tail risk, if anything quality appears to hedge (as opposed being correlated to periods) of market distress. To study further the risk of QMJ, Figure 4 plots the performance of QMJ against the return on the market. The negative beta of QMJ is clearly visible by the downward sloping
Quality Minus Junk  Asness, Frazzini, and Pedersen  Page 19
To study this. looking at the alphas reveal a similar pattern of mild flight to quality.Asness.Page 20 . investors may exhibit flight to quality in the sense that prices of unprofitable stocks drop more than the prices of profitable stocks. Figure 5 shows the time series of the price of quality. and Pedersen . In fact. That is. This mild concavity is mostly driven by the returns to the profitability subcomponent of quality. it is interesting to link prices and subsequent returns in the time series. The Time Variation of the Price of Quality: Predicting QMJ It is interesting to consider how the price of quality varies over time. QMJ also performs well in extreme down markets. the relatively tight fit around the curve shows the limited residual risk. the secondorder polynomial showed in the graph has a positive (but insignificant) quadratic term (meaning that the fitted curve bends upward in the extreme). We see that the price of quality varies significantly over time. then a high price of quality should predict low subsequent returns Quality Minus Junk . The strong performance of QMJ in down markets is robust to considering longer down periods for the market such as down quarters or down years (not shown). Overall. Further. if this time variation is not due to mismeasurement noise. alternative riskbased explanations are always possible.relation of the excess return of QMJ and the market. 6.0) for the profitability factor. in fact. The intuitive pattern of the price of quality suggests that the variation is not just driven by noise. The strong return in extreme down markets is consistent with a flight to quality (or at least profitability). our findings present a serious challenge for riskbased explanations (to the extent that bad states of the world are related to large negative realization of market returns) as high quality stocks appear to protect investors from severe market downturns. that is. Frazzini. the price of quality is lowest during the height of the internet bubble in early 2000 and has other large swings during time periods consistent with economics intuition as discussed in the introduction. Further. To explore further the variation in the price of quality. Specifically. in down markets. As one might expect. even adjusting for their betas. Of course. the time series of the FamaMacBeth regression coefficients that we estimate above in Equation 8. implying a strong and consistent historical performance of QMJ during down periods for the market. the quadratic term is marginally significant (tstatistic of 2.
controls for past returns.. This captures standard momentum effects. We adjust standard errors for heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation induced by the overlapping returns (Newey and West (1987)) by setting the lag length equal to the forecasting horizon. We are interested in testing the hypothesis that a high lagged price of quality predicts lower subsequent returns. Specifically. We then cumulate these alphas ) ∏ ( ) and ∏ ( use them on the left hand side of (11). To compute the alphas.Asness. Table VIII reports only the regression coefficient for the variable of interest. . Frazzini. and momentum factors and compute the alpha as the regression residual plus the intercept (i. We consider alphas to ensure that the predictability of the price of quality on QMJ is not driven by any potential predictability of other factors. Last. again to ensure that the predictability of the price of quality is a novel finding. is the lagged FamaMacBeth regression coefficient from Equation (8) that gives the connection between price and quality at each time. The future excess return on the raw QMJ factor is computed simply by cumulating returns. we regress QMJ on the contemporaneous returns of the market.of QMJ. size. This table reports the regression coefficients of timeseries regressions of future QMJ returns on the ex ante price of quality: (11) Said simply. The price of quality. Let us describe We run the regression in two ways: Using the “raw” excess returns of the QMJ factor on the left hand side (“raw”) and using the alpha of the QMJ factor on the left hand side (“alpha”).e. ∏ ( ) ∏ ( ). We run overlapping forecasting regressions predicting returns from one month up to five years. the price of quality is estimated as column (1) in Table III for the U. Quality Minus Junk .S. the ex ante price of quality. that is. is the return of QMJ over the future k months. and column (5) for the global sample.Page 21 . and each of these variables in detail. and Pedersen . Table VIII provides evidence of such predictability. is defined as the portfolio–weighted average of the past 1year returns of the stocks in the QMJ portfolio. as the return of QMJ with its factor exposures hedged out). is the lagged price of quality (the variable of interest). value.
indicating slowly changing expected returns. if we suppose that a stock’s fundamental value V is a multiple of its quality.S. base the signal on the quality multiple that corresponds to the fundamental value (m is of course unobservable). Quality Minus Junk . that is.Page 22 .Table VIII shows that a high price of quality indeed predicts lower future returns on QMJ. reflects changes in the market pricing of quality characteristics. generating variation in QMJ returns. The results for our shorter global sample in Panel B are noisier. then what is the best way to buy cheap quality stocks? To answer these questions. 7. thus preserving the scale of the spread in book to market ratios.Asness. the results in Table VIII and Table A6 are consistent with the hypothesis that the variation of the price of quality is not pure noise but. QARP is based on the difference between a stock’s quality times n minus its pricetobook score. We should get the highest alpha if we let . That is. . the estimates tend to be negative and all of the statistically significant coefficients are again negative.S. Quality at a Reasonable Price It is interesting to consider what is the “fair” price of quality? That is. rather. long sample shown in Panel A. Using the same factor construction as for QMJ. The bottom rows of Table VIII similarly test whether the price of the separate quality characteristics predict the returns of the corresponding long/short factors. then what is the fair value of m? Relatedly. and Pedersen . We report these results in Table A6 of the Appendix. we construct a longshort portfolio that we call quality at a reasonable price (QARP) as follows. but we see that all of the statistically significant coefficients are negative as expected. all the coefficients have the expected negative sign and we are able to reject the null hypothesis of no predictability in all but one specification. We also run these tests using cross sectional coefficients obtained from a regression of the log booktomarket (as opposed to ranks) on the quality scores. we construct a longshort portfolio based on the signal for various choices of n. as expected. sample and similar for our global sample. In our U. Predictability rises with the forecasting horizon. Results are in general stronger for the U. While these results are noisier. To summarize. if the market pays a price for quality different from m. Frazzini.
The combination of QMJ and HML that has the highest Sharpe ratio puts a weight of about 70% on QMJ (and. hence.9 globally. QARP buys securities that are cheap relative to their quality. The Sharpe ratio of QARP (whether constructed based on combining signals or combining factor returns) is naturally higher than either quality or value alone. that time 2 discounted at the required return. Since our measures of quality and price are based on zscores. the alpha depends on the difference between the fundamental value and the price . Instead.S. and about 60% weight on QMJ globally. then the quality and price ranks would line up. in this case.” namely the trap of buying securities that look cheap but deserve to be cheap. about 0.S. Another way to consider QARP is to simply form a portfolio of quality (QMJ) and value (HML). we simply subtract the two (rather than dividing by price as above). is. 8. The alpha of the security. the expected excess return above the required return is then ( ) Naturally. and globally. When we construct QARP empirically.Indeed. Our evidence suggests that the fair price of quality is above the level paid by the market. Frazzini. the portfolio is long the highestalpha securities and short the lowestalpha securities.Asness. where k is the required return.11 If the highestquality stocks were the most expensive.S. Quality Minus Junk . and 0. QARP performs well as quality strategies complement value by helping an investor avoid the “value trap. and Pedersen . QMJ on the RightHandSide of a Factor Model 11 For simplicity consider a 2period model so that the fundamental value is the expected payoff at . implying that . we do find that the alpha is highest for n close to 1 both in the U.7 in the U.Page 23 . the remaining 30% on HML) in the U.
Moreover. controlling for QMJ. for instance. More broadly. sample. Controlling for this exposure to quality lowers the alpha of UMD.We have seen that QMJ is an intuitive and powerful factor that has significant alpha relative to the standard factors. that is. but significant. safe.Page 24 . excess return in our US sample and an insignificant excess return in the global sample. HML. the size effect. HML.. and high payout. with and without QMJ on the righthandside. The size effect is alive and well when we account for quality as small stocks outperform large stocks when we compare firms of similar quality (and market beta. e. This finding in return space is the analog of the strong size effect for prices that we documented in Table III. and UMD). which is significant in the global but not U. This negative loading implies that controlling for QMJ increases the alpha of HML. the size effect becomes large and highly significant in both samples. when researchers need to test whether new phenomena are driven by quality. a complication we do not pursue in this paper. Quality has several other 12 This alpha is further reduced if we include lagged versions of the market return on the righthandside to account for possible illiquidity in SMB. and UMD on the other standard factors. strengthening the value effect.S. be young firms that are yet to be profitable. however. In both samples. SMB has a very large negative exposure to QMJ. Frazzini.g. Table IX further shows that HML has a negative loading on QMJ.Asness. The size effect could appear to be a fluke. QMJ is a useful factor to add to the toolbox of global factors. and Pedersen .12 Controlling for QMJ completely changes this conclusion. Table IX reports the results of regressing each of the SMB. Let us first consider SMB. SMB actually has a small and insignificant alpha when controlling for the other standard factors (the market. value and momentum exposure). SMB has a modest. but the momentum effect remains highly significant in both samples. an artifact of SMB’s market exposure. Lastly. It is also interesting to switch things around and put QMJ on the righthandside to see how it affects the alphas and interpretation of the standard factors. This is also intuitive as cheap stocks (with high booktomarket) are naturally lower quality than expensive stocks. UMD has positive loading on QMJ. Quality Minus Junk . small stocks are junky relative to big stocks. Clearly. This finding is intuitive as small stocks could.
” that is. generating a timevarying expected return on qualityminusjunk portfolios: a low price of quality predicts a high future return of quality stocks relative to junk stocks.e. and do so in a far more inclusive and complete setting than prior papers using all four components Quality Minus Junk . we find evidence of the opposite. while one can never rule out a risk explanation for the high return of quality stocks. with quality stocks being riskier than junk stocks. 9. which we intend to explore further in future research. Consistent with market efficiency. rather than exhibiting crash risk.interesting implications for the standard factors and asset pricing more broadly. However. and globally across 24 countries.Asness. growing. we are unable to identify this risk. they have a tendency to perform well during periods of extreme market distress. we show that the price of quality varies over time. if anything they benefit from “flight to quality. and Pedersen .. and quality in general. We create definitions of all four quality subcomponents. Conclusion In this paper we define a quality security as one that has characteristics that should command a higher (scaled) price. we find that high quality firms do exhibit higher prices on average. We show that quality stocks are low beta and. in anything.Page 25 . leaving the majority of cross sectional dispersion in scaled prices unexplained. a Sharpe ratio above 1 after hedging its other factor exposures) in the U. the explanatory power of quality on prices is low. we document strong and consistent abnormal returns to quality. They are consistent with quality stocks being underpriced and junk stocks overpriced or.S. These findings present a challenge for riskbased explanations where bad states of the world are negatively correlated to extreme return realizations of the market factor. Finally. A qualityminusjunk (QMJ) factor that goes long highquality stocks and shorts lowquality stocks earns significant riskadjusted returns with an information ratio above 1 (i. profitable. Our results present a puzzle for asset pricing. which are robust and inclusive from across the literature and test the hypothesis that high quality firms have higher scaled prices. high quality firms exhibit high riskadjusted returns. quality stocks are safe. alternatively. Following from the Gordon Growth Model. Frazzini. and have high payout ratio. However. As a result. In summary.
Page 26 . in a highly related finding. and global correlations of quality to size). or the results of a stilltobeidentified risk factor not from the 4factor model. Quality Minus Junk .S. size and time periods. Frazzini.Asness. data mining (incredibly robust data mining .including across countries. We also tie these results to the crosssection and timeseries of the pricing of quality in novel ways. and Pedersen . or. Our results present an important puzzle for asset pricing: We cannot tie the returns of quality to risk.implied by the Gordon Growth Model simultaneously. demonstrate that prices crosssectionally vary “enough” with quality measures. and encompassing the strong consistent U. At this point the returns to quality must be either an anomaly.
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The sample includes all U.022 0.856 250 429 176 92 860 677 19.66 2.002 0.021 0.002 0.103 132 516 38 97 129 1.142 126 231 1. and Pedersen – Tables and Figures – Page T1 .988 109 120 69 38 353 203 3.70 0.018 0.002 0.96 1.60 1.399 Start Year End Year Australia Austria Belgium Canada Switzerland Germany Denmark Spain Finland France United Kingdom Greece Hong Kong Ireland Israel Italy Japan Netherlands Norway New Zealand Portugal Singapore Sweden United States 1986 1990 1990 1982 1986 1989 1986 1986 1986 1986 1986 1995 1989 1987 1995 1986 1986 1986 1986 1990 1990 1990 1986 1951 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 Quality Minus Junk – Asness.901 343 1.85 1.06 3.58 0.004 0. Frazzini.37 1.26 1.003 0.01 1.08 4. common stocks (CRSP “shrcd” equal to 10 or 11) and all global stocks (“tcpi” equal to 0) in the merged CRSP/Xpressfeed global databases.018 0.061 0.21 1.009 0.48 1.48 1.64 2.Table I Summary Statistics This table shows summary statistics as of June of each year.63 0.29 4.088 3.S.35 1.312 239 1.83 0.012 0.351 106 284 356 3.96 0.002 0.31 0.70 2.003 0.08 4.009 0.37 1.095 0.026 0.356 660 56 91 541 135 596 85 82 83 397 1.594 Firm size Weight in global (BillionUSD) portfolio 0. Country Total number of Average number stocks of stocks 2.014 0.492 227 212 202 1.044 0.023 0.202 0.005 0.004 0.
U.42 33.15 0.12 0.37 0.17 P2 0.70 20.05 0.12 0.48 P9 1.59 0.14 0.29 P5 0.45 0.12 P2 0.01 20.16 0.29 P3 0.23 0.37 0.11 0.46 0.29 0.75 0.18 0.53 0.15 0.10 0..15 0.72 0.40 HL tstat 42.16 0.04 0.57 HL 3. This table reports the valueweighted average of quality measures across stocks in the portfolio at portfolio formation (t) up to the subsequent ten years (t + 120 months).05 0.00 0.52 0.07 0.01 0.21 0.35 0.P1 tstat 47.32 0.38 P6 0.90 0.60 0.06 0.33 0.S.62 1. Panel B reports results from our Broad Sample of global stocks.56 P10 (High) 1.09 0.42 P7 0.13 0.20 0.46 0.07 0.36 0.77 6.82 1.79 0.28 0.95 35.98 1.36 0. The ranked stocks are assigned to one of ten portfolios.04 0.19 0.69 0.49 1. We report the time series average of the valueweighted cross sectional means.42 0.19 0.63 0.49 0.14 0.48 0.09 0. Each calendar month.74 0.45 0.00 0.30 0.06 0. 1956 .00 0.08 0.13 0.05 44.22 35.15 0.27 0.11 0.28 P3 0.39 0.18 0.12 0. The sample period runs from June 1956 to December 2012.16 1.35 0.10 0.38 0.04 0.08 0.08 0.16 0. 1956 2012 Quality t Quality t + 12M Quality t + 36M Quality t + 60M Quality Profit Growth Safety Payout t + 120M t + 120M t + 120M t + 120M t + 120M P1 (Low) 1.25 0.05 0.50 0.71 0. Standard errors are adjusted for heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation with a lag length of five years (Newey and West (1987)) and 5% significance is indicated in bold.20 0.03 0.47 22.59 0.62 0.07 0.14 0.04 0.56 1.03 0.09 0.00 0.14 0.52 0.01 0.28 0.49 P10 .09 0.34 0.04 0.85 0.31 Panel B: Broad Sample Global.02 0.07 0.P1 2.22 0.10 9. and Pedersen – Tables and Figures – Page T2 .59 8.44 0. Panel A: Long Sample U.15 Quality Minus Junk – Asness.68 0.61 P10 .47 0.93 0.19 0.19 0.40 0.21 0.05 0.30 0.94 1.19 0.86 0.12 0.49 P8 0.32 0.95 0.07 0.23 0.00 0.68 20.70 0.31 P5 0.37 1.23 0.34 0.11 0.67 0.27 0.37 0.38 0.10 0.49 P9 1.29 0.61 0.51 P10 (High) 1.Table II Persistence of Quality Measures This table shows average quality scores.42 P6 0.14 0.07 1. sorts are based on NYSE breakpoints.13 0.09 0.45 0.05 0.15 0.40 13.22 0.74 6.19 0.74 0.35 P4 0.87 1.12 0.60 0. stocks in each country in are ranked in ascending order on the basis of their quality score.28 P4 0.57 0.68 17.03 0.09 0.89 1.28 1.31 1. Frazzini.27 0.10 0.28 39.20 0.29 0.13 0.10 0.63 0.10 0.08 0.46 37.02 0.35 0.49 P8 0.92 1.00 0. Panel A reports results from our Long Sample of domestic stocks.13 0.54 0.2012 Quality Quality Quality Quality Quality Profit Growth Safety Payout t t + 12M t + 36M t + 60M t + 120M t + 120M t + 120M t + 120M t + 120M P1 (Low) 1.29 0.44 0. The sample period runs from June 1986 to December 2012.S.02 0.25 0.14 0.39 P7 0.
2012) (1) (2) (3) (4) Broad Sample (Global. .03 0. . . (9) . .76) . .67) .38 (31. . . 1986 . (4) .10 (11. Standard errors are adjusted for heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation (Newey and West (1987)) with a lag length of 12 months. . . . 0.30 0. . (6) 0..2012) (1) (2) . 0. . . . . Broad Sample (Global. When indicated (“Industry FE”.05 0. 0. 0.60) 0. .22 (24. .25 Yes Yes 0. 0.29 (33. “Country FE”) variables are standardized by industrycountry pairs. .2012) (5) 0.13 (18. . . .91) 0. . .54) .29 (17. . . 1956 . . .S. 0.15 0. . (8) .19) .36) 0. . .31 0.28 (35.18 0.31 (19.33) No No No No Yes No Yes No Yes 0. .02 No Yes 0. . No Yes 0. . .06 Panel B: The Price of Each Quality Component Long Sample (U.26 0. Yes 0. .31 0. The explanatory variables are the quality scores in month t and a series of controls. . R is the stock return in the prior year.24 (23. All variables are rescaled to have a zero mean and a standard deviation of one.47) 0. the Price of Quality This table reports coefficients from FamaMacbeth regressions. . Tstatistics are shown below the coefficient estimates and 5% statistical significance is indicated in bold. The dependent variable is the zscore of a stock’s market to book ratio (MB) in month t. 0.08 No Yes 0.30 (23.01 0. .64) (3) . .28 (28. . 0.01 Yes Yes 0. .32 (22. Average R2 is the time series averages of the adjusted Rsquare of the cross sectional regression.02) . 1956 . .95) .10 (11.94) 0. . Panel A: The Price of Quality Long Sample (U. . .08 (12. .28 (22.28 (26. . . Frazzini. Size is the zscore of the stock’s market equity (ME).09 Quality Minus Junk – Asness.32 (23.27 (21.69) 0.28 (23.28 (26. .10 (12.t) Industry FE Country FE Average R2 0.71) .30 (27.08 (11.39) 0.27 (18.38) .37) Profitability Growth Safety Payout Size Ret(t12.41) .12 0.20) 0.11 (8.14 (9.11 0. .22) . . .19) . .09 (15.33) 0.25) 0. . and Pedersen – Tables and Figures – Page T3 .31 (21. .19 (31. . . .94) 0. .18) .t) Industry FE Country FE Average R2 0. 0. . . 0.54) No Yes No Yes 0. . .31 (20.19 (15.69) .50) 0. .40 0. is the stock return in month t. . . 0. No 0.59) . 0. Yes Yes 0.Table III Results: Cross Sectional Regressions. . (10) 0.11 (12.2012) (5) (6) (7) (8) Quality Size Ret(t12.S.10 (17.06 (4.67) . . .20 (13. 1986 .23) .11) 0.92) 0. .08) . .41 (26. .19) . 0. (7) . .
01 (0.03 0.45 (2.39 (2.16 (3.46 0. The sample period runs from June 1956 to December 2012.23) 0.12 (2.01 0.25) 0.24 0.92) 0.95) 0.01 (0.08 0.47) 0.20) 0.49) 0. U.06 (0.S.04 (0.22 (2. 1956 .37 0.82 0.19 (3.68) 0.87 0.19 0.90 1.07 (0.96) 0.14 (2.37) 0.52 0.23 (1.2012 Excess return CAPM alpha 3factor alpha 4factor alpha Beta Sharpe Ratio Information Ratio Adjusted R2 P1 (Low) 0.44 0.98) 0.00 0.12 (0. We form one set of portfolios in each country and compute global portfolios by weighting each country’s portfolio by the country’s total (lagged) market capitalization.05 (1.28 0.08 0.20 (1.46 (1.63) 0. This table includes all available common stocks on the CRSP/Xpressfeed merged database for the markets listed in Table I.47 (3.24 (1.84 0.Table IV QualitySorted Portfolios This table shows calendartime portfolio returns.21 (4.60 Panel B: Broad Sample Global . refreshed every calendar month.08) P2 0.97 (9.47) 0.90) 0.22 0.35) 0.94 0. Sharpe ratios and information ratios are annualized.01) 0.33 0.02 (0.81 0.61 0.53 (4.30 0.52 (2.62 1.36 0.54) P10 (High) 0.25 (4.95 0.78 0.11) 0.06 (1. and 5% statistical significance is indicated in bold.33 (2.14) 0.11 (0. Panel B reports results from our Broad Sample of global stocks.03 (0. and rebalanced every calendar month to maintain value weights.56 (6.23 0.90 1.19) 0.97 0. sorts are based on NYSE breakpoints. Portfolios are valueweighted.24 (2.22) 0.53) 0.34 0.20 0. Beta is the realized loading on the market portfolio.80 0.57 (2.51) P6 0.06) 0.28 (2.41 0.44) 0.46 (2.61 (3.49 0.02 0.83) 0.74) P7 0.97) 0.01 0.29) P8 0.49) 1.48) P10 (High) 0.08 (1.04 (0.68) HL 0. Information ratio is equal to 4factor alpha (intercept) divided by the standard deviation of the estimated residuals in the timeseries regression.92 1.17) 0.18 (1.11 (1.78) HL 0.67 (7.55) P2 0.09) 0.06) 1.07 0.84 0.15 0.01 (0.S. tstatistics are shown below the coefficient estimates.03 0.43 (1.18 (2.38 (1.93 1.25 0.62) 0.10 (0.08) 0.38 0.90 0.93 (6. Treasury bill rate.26 (4.25) P5 0.24) 0.39) 0.13 (2.08) 0.15 (2.91 1.24) 0. The rightmost column reports returns of a selffinancing portfolio that is long the high quality portfolio and shorts the low quality portfolio.00) 0.82 0.82 0.44) 0.65 (2.68 (3.27 0.04 (0.26) 0.90 0.27 0.01 (0.36) 0.12 (2.38 (1.21 0.49 1. Each calendar month.57 (3.56) P3 0.41 (7.82 0.82 0.42) P8 0.71) 0.61 (2.37 1.90) P4 0.01 0.36 0. 1986 .38 (5. The explanatory variables are the monthly returns from the market portfolio (MKT) and size (SMB).03 (0.10 0.02 (0.85) P6 0.97 (8.89 (5.24 (2.46 0.44) 0.28 0. stocks in each country in are ranked in ascending order on the basis of their quality score.52) 0.05) 0.20 0.10) 0.09 0.80 1. do not include currency hedging.81 1.75) 0.35 (1.71 (4.14 (2.12 (7.91 0.52 (1. and Pedersen – Tables and Figures – Page T4 .04) P5 0.68) 0.12 (2. .80) 0.91 0.90 0. and excess returns are above the U.33) 0.33 0.56 Quality Minus Junk – Asness.17 (1.37 0.13 0.10 (0.09 (0. Panel A: Long Sample U.75) P9 0.86) 0.12 0.40 0.00 0.42) P4 0.18) 0.15 (0.23 (1. Alpha is the intercept in a timeseries regression of monthly excess return.37) 0.39 (3.42) 0.2012 Excess return CAPM alpha 3factor alpha 4factor alpha Beta Sharpe Ratio Information Ratio Adjusted R2 P1 (Low) 0. booktomarket (HML).32 0.53 0.S.17) 0.29 (5.12) 0.35 0.22) 0.45 (2. Frazzini.93 0.25) 0. The ranked stocks are assigned to one of ten portfolios.55) 1. Panel A reports results from our Long Sample of domestic stocks.26) 0.47 (2.91 1.85) 0. Returns are in USD.85 0. and momentum (UMD) factormimicking portfolios.77 0.08) P9 0.11 (0.53 0.29 (5.60) P7 0.91) 0.42 (5.05) 0.24 (1.14 0.61 (3.92) 0.58 (3.79 1.33) 0.79 0.62) 0.36 (1.92 0.98) 0.41) 0.01) P3 0. Returns and alphas are in monthly percent. The sample period runs from June 1986 to December 2012.02) 0.73 (4.73) 0.47 (2.
34 1.00 0.27 0. Frazzini.72 0.35 1.82 0.76 0.00 0. and momentum (UMD) factormimicking portfolios.00 0.09 1.71 0.51 1.88 0. . The explanatory variables are the monthly returns from the market portfolio (MKT) and size (SMB).28 0.2012) QMJ Profitability QMJ Profitability Safety Growth Payout QMJ Profitability Safety Growth Payout 1.19 1.33 1.00 0. We use conditional sorts. and Pedersen – Tables and Figures – Page T5 . Panel B reports results from our Broad Sample of global stocks.64 0. For International securities the size breakpoint is the 80th percentile by country.76 Safety Returns Growth Safety Returns Growth Payout 1. The sample period runs from June 1956 to December 2012. stocks are assigned to two sizesorted portfolios based on their market capitalization.00 0.36 0.52 0.49 0.00 1. Quality minus Junk (QMJ) factors are constructed as the intersection of six valueweighted portfolios formed on size and quality. Alpha is the intercept in a timeseries regression of monthly excess return.00 0. growth.24 0.15 0.00 0.S.00 Quality Minus Junk – Asness. then on quality.42 0. booktomarket (HML).00 0.18 0. At the end of each calendar month.00 Abnormal Returns (4factor) 1.00 0. For U.00 0.79 0.35 0.69 Abnormal Returns (4factor) 1. safety and payout score are constructed in a similar manner.84 0.82 0. The sample period runs from June 1986 to December 2012. booktomarket (HML). Returns are in USD. and excess returns are above the U.00 0. This table includes all available common stocks on the CRSP/Xpressfeed merged database for the markets listed in Table I.00 0.00 1.36 1.86 0. 1956 . Portfolios are valueweighted. We form one set of portfolios in each country and compute global portfolios by weighting each country’s portfolio by the country’s total (lagged) market capitalization.70 0. Portfolios based on profitability.15 0.30 0. securities.Table V Quality Minus Junk: Correlations This table shows correlation of monthly returns.2012) Payout QMJ Profitability 1.06 1. first sorting on size.43 0. The QMJ factor return is the average return on the two high quality portfolios minus the average return on the two low quality (junk) portfolios.00 0.46 1. Panel A reports results from our Long Sample of domestic stocks.30 1. refreshed every calendar month.53 1. and momentum (UMD) factormimicking portfolios. The explanatory variables are the monthly returns from the market portfolio (MKT) and size (SMB). Panel A: Long Sample (U.44 1.00 0. the size breakpoint is the median NYSE market equity. 1986 .S.62 1. do not include currency hedging. Abnormal returns are constructed as the intercept plus the residual of a timeseries regression of monthly excess return.69 Panel B: Broad Sample (Global. and rebalanced every calendar month to maintain value weights.00 0.00 0. Treasury bill rate.S.
20 (14.14 0.81) 0. . At the end of each calendar month.46) 0. Panel A: Long Sample (U. first sorting on size.57 0.22) Safety 0.68) 0.23 (2. We use conditional sorts.38) Panel B: Broad Sample (Global . The sample period runs from June 1956 to December 2012.01 (0.44 (5.83 0.27 (3.55) 0.10) 0.12 (5. the Sharpe ratio of the regression residual) are annualized. safety and payout score are constructed in a similar manner. Quality minus Junk (QMJ) factors are constructed as the intersection of six valueweighted portfolios formed on size and quality.25 (17.27) 0. For International securities the size breakpoint is the 80th percentile by country.63 0.31 (3.16 0. The explanatory variables are the monthly returns from the market portfolio (MKT) and size (SMB).74) 0.12 (1.30) 0.34) 0.64) 0. 1956 .48 0.58) 0.38 (11..37) Safety 0.42 (4.22 (5.55 (7.41 (17.71) 0.36 (9. and momentum (UMD) factormimicking portfolios.05 (2.88 0.07) 0.46 (6. and 5% statistical significance is indicated in bold.18 (10.02 (0.52 (5.27 1.14 (5.59 (8.81) 0.49 (5.10) 0. Panel B reports results from our Broad Sample of global stocks.Table VI Quality Minus Junk: Returns This table shows calendartime portfolio returns and factor loadings. stocks are assigned to two sizesorted portfolios based on their market capitalization. refreshed every calendar month.82) 0.28 (13.47) 0.68) 0. then on quality.S.06) Growth 0.45 (5.49 0.38 (3.20) 0.16) 0.48) 0.51 1.45 0.16 (3. Portfolios based on profitability.35) 0. Information ratio is equal to 4factor alpha (intercept) divided by the standard deviation of the estimated residuals in the timeseries regression.38 (6.43 (4. the size breakpoint is the median NYSE market equity.43) 0.08 (1.97) 0.25 0.86) 0.28 (12.06) 0.89) 0.53) 0.58 1.61) 0.07 (3.52 Quality Minus Junk – Asness.33) 0. Portfolios are valueweighted.57 (7.34 0.53 (6.50) 0. growth.23 (6. securities.79) 0.11) 0.66 (10.02 (0.77) 0.39 (16.18) 0.50) 0. The QMJ factor return is the average return on the two high quality portfolios minus the average return on the two low quality (junk) portfolios.16 (8.76) 0.21 (3.53 (8.37 0. do not include currency hedging.82) 0.66 0.62 1.31 (7.24 (14.64) 0.68) 0.15 (5.14 (1.38 (3.95) 0.84 0.34 (3. Returns and alphas are in monthly percent.01 (0.24 (8.30 (14. Frazzini.2012) QMJ Profitability Excess Returns CAPMalpha 3factor alpha 4factor alpha MKT SMB HML UMD Sharpe Ratio Information Ratio Adjusted R2 0.60 0.41) 0.63 1.39 (4.01) 0.40 0.21) 0.19 (1.S.22 0. Alpha is the intercept in a timeseries regression of monthly excess return.02 (0.91) 0. The sample period runs from June 1986 to December 2012.62) 0.07) 0.05 0.2012) Payout 0.40 (4. and Pedersen – Tables and Figures – Page T6 .00) 0.75) 0.60 0.40) 0.31) 0.29 (3.17 (8. This table includes all available common stocks on the CRSP/Xpressfeed merged database for the markets listed in Table I.92) 0.11 (8.82) 0.03) 0.13) 0.03 (1.61 (7.20 (5.S.13 0.02) 0.00 (0.50 (5.44 (18.21 (10.00) 0. We form one set of portfolios in each country and compute global portfolios by weighting each country’s portfolio by the country’s total (lagged) market capitalization.24) Payout 0.49 (5.05 (3.06) 0.18 (5. and rebalanced every calendar month to maintain value weights.54) 0. and excess returns are above the U.20 (3.23 (8. tstatistics are shown below the coefficient estimates.35 0.29) 0.78) 0.17) 0. Returns are in USD.26) 0.08) 0.62) 0.46 0.21 (10.34 (20.07) 0. Sharpe ratios and information ratios (i.26 0.34 (3.45 (7.38 (17.50) 0.57) 0. booktomarket (HML).33 (9. 1986 .80) 0.32) 0.e. Treasury bill rate.33 (4. Panel A reports results from our Long Sample of domestic stocks.63) QMJ Profitability 0.33) Growth 0.36) 0. For U.23) 0.68 (11.43 (6.50) 0.10 (3.19 (2.58 0.
33 0.22 0.79 0.22 0.22 0.S.02 0.16 0.58 1.48 0.19 0.24 Factor Loadings SM B 0.17 0.39 0.02 0.35 0.38 0.22 0.15 0.20 0.16 0.25 0.04 0.38 0.90 1.18 0.42 1.16 0.40 0.08 0.17 0.15 0. and Pedersen – Tables and Figures – Page T7 .16 0. refreshed every calendar month.26 0.11 0.73 1.36 0.53 0.34 0.55 0.16 0.15 0.16 0.47 0.04 0.85 0.98 1.59 2.04 0.39 0.12 0.45 0.45 0.75 0.76 0.34 0.48 0.27 0.47 0. This table includes all available comm on stocks on the CRSP/Xpressfeed merged database for the markets listed in Table I.08 0.36 0.08 0. We use conditional sorts.10 0.54 1.36 0.62 0.53 1.38 0.05 3.15 0.50 0.92 0.01 UM D 0.35 0.40 1.27 0.07 4.26 0. Panel A reports results from our Long Sample of domestic stocks.32 1.17 3.22 0.45 Tstat Alpha M KT 2.34 0.11 0.19 0.88 1.25 0.15 1. We form one set of portfolios in each country and compute global portfolios by weighting each country’s portfolio by the country’s total (lagged) market capitalization.23 0.57 2.79 0.32 0.09 0. first sorting on size.72 0.86 0.06 1.95 0.51 0.85 0.34 0.43 2. Panel B reports results from our Broad Sample of global stocks.48 0.01 0.08 0. Returns are in USD.15 Sharpe Information Number of Ratio Ratio months 0.41 0.42 0.08 0. For International securities the size breakpoint is the 80th percentile by country.41 2.61 0.21 0. Frazzini.22 0.10 0.61 0. At the end of each calendar month.33 0. The QMJ factor return is the average return on the two high quality portfolios minus the average return on the two low quality (junk) portfolios.93 2.36 10.25 0.66 0. the size breakpoint is the median NYSE market equity.72 0.38 3. Alpha is the intercept in a timeseries regression of monthly excess return.33 1.35 0.07 0.64 0.33 0.60 2. Quality minus Junk (QMJ) factors are constructed as the intersection of six valueweighted portfolios formed on size and quality.31 0.67 3.51 0.58 0. and rebalanced every calendar month to maintain value weights.24 0.86 0.26 0.54 1.60 0.66 0.66 1.13 0. The sample period runs from June 1956 to December 2012. Sharpe ratios and information ratios are annualized.08 0.07 0.14 0.12 0.17 1.15 0.61 0.38 Tstat Excess return 1. and excess returns are above the U.17 2.28 0.17 0.10 0.27 0.61 0.20 5.20 0.53 0.14 0. The sample period runs from June 1986 to December 2012.08 0.51 0.59 0.31 0.28 0.34 0.21 0. Excess return Australia Austria Belgium Canada Switzerland Germany Denmark Spain Finland France United Kingdom Greece Hong Kong Ireland Israel Italy Japan Netherlands Norway New Zealand Portugal Singapore Sweden United States Global 0.98 1.59 0.38 2.17 0. and 5% statistical significance is indicated in bold. Panel C reports results by country.59 2.84 0.30 2.40 0. and momentum (UMD) factormimicking portfolios.50 0. For U.27 0.05 0. Returns and alphas are in monthly percent.40 1.35 2.56 1.69 0.18 0. The explanatory variables are the monthly returns from the market portfolio (MKT) and size (SMB).46 1.22 4factor Alpha 0.31 0.91 0.23 0. safety and payout score are constructed in a similar manner.06 0.07 0.44 0.13 0.06 0.15 0.15 0.12 0.16 210 198 210 306 210 210 204 210 210 210 246 126 210 208 138 198 246 210 210 210 150 210 256 678 324 Date Range 19952012 19962012 19952012 19872012 19952012 19952012 19962012 19952012 19952012 19952012 19922012 20022012 19952012 19952012 20012012 19962012 19922012 19952012 19952012 19952012 20002012 19952012 19912012 19562012 19862012 Quality Minus Junk – Asness.15 0. Information ratio is equal to 4factor alpha (intercept) divided by the standard deviation of the estimated residuals in the timeseries regression. booktomarket (HML).96 1.49 4.S. do not include currency hedging.49 0.20 0.21 0.35 3.08 0.37 0.62 0.41 0.53 0.69 2.05 0.72 2. Treasury bill rate.17 0.22 1.50 0.21 0.67 0.59 0.85 1.07 0.90 0.08 0.11 0.04 0.18 0.06 0. Portfolios are valueweighted.34 0.33 HM L 0. securities.56 0.Table VI (Continued) Quality Minus Junk: By Country This table shows calendartime portfolio returns and factor loadings. growth.00 0. Portfolios based on profitability.38 0.59 0.18 0.05 0.53 0.89 0.22 0. tstatistics are shown below the coefficient estimates.66 0.87 0.43 0.26 0.33 0.43 0.53 0. then on quality.26 0.12 0.40 0.19 0. stocks are assigned to two sizesorted portfolios based on their market capitalization.39 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.19 0.68 0.
27 3.34 0.65 0. and 5% statistical significance is indicated in bold.97 3.15 0.83 0.61 0. Quality minus Junk (QMJ) factors are constructed as the intersection of six valueweighted portfolios formed on size and quality. booktomarket (HML).87 4Factor Alpha 0.42 3Factor Alpha 11. 1986 .01 2.61 8.52 2.26 0.52 0.52 0. We form one set of portfolios in each country and compute global portfolios by weighting each country’s portfolio by the country’s total (lagged) market capitalization.07 0.73 0.42 0.87 0.35 0.55 0.77 3.30 0.18 3.73 0.64 4. “Severe bear (bull) market” is defined as a total market return in the past 12 month below (above) 25% (25%).68 1.73 0.95 2. We use conditional sorts.56 3Factor Alpha 0.52 Excess Return 3. Portfolios based on profitability. Panel A: Long Sample U. and excess returns are above the U.57 0. Returns and alphas are in monthly percent.45 0.90 tstatistics CAPM Alpha 7.61 0. We measure volatility as the 1month standard deviation of daily returns of the CRSPvalue weighted index or the MSCIWorld index and split the sample in the top and bottom 30% high and low periods.92 0.20 5.61 0.Table VII QMJ: Recessions. Severe Bear and Bull Markets and Volatility Environment This table shows calendartime portfolio returns of QMJ factors in different macroeconomic environments.10 5.73 0. then on quality.30 CAPM Alpha 0. and rebalanced every calendar month to maintain value weights.49 6.S.48 0.60 0.59 0.74 4Factor Alpha 5.64 5.95 0.52 0. “Spike Up (down) in Volatility” indicate periods of large increases or drops in market volatility.49 0.67 0.48 8.93 8.73 Excess Return 4.63 0.48 3. Returns are in USD.84 7.39 6. “Low (high) volatility” indicated periods of low (high) market volatility.42 7.15 4.89 0.60 3Factor Alpha 0.57 2.97 4.75 1.38 0.50 4.67 2. refreshed every calendar month.07 2.75 0.37 2.84 0..43 0. Portfolios are valueweighted.36 4Factor Alpha 10.60 5.65 3Factor Alpha 7.45 1.2012 Return Excess Return 0.91 Number of months 324 37 287 15 55 144 75 114 120 All Periods Recession Expansion Severe Bear market Severe Bull M arket Low Volatility High Volatility Spike Up in Volatility Spike Down in Volatility Quality Minus Junk – Asness.13 2.13 4.24 2.60 0.76 0.41 0.2012 Return Excess Return 0.70 2.25 0.39 2.78 0.95 2.52 0. stocks are assigned to two sizesorted portfolios based on their market capitalization.17 5. tstatistics are shown below the coefficient estimates.51 4.65 5.68 3.52 4.46 0.15 5.81 1.51 0.45 0.88 0.89 2.68 0.76 9.60 5. and Pedersen – Tables and Figures – Page T8 .71 0.33 0.89 3. Frazzini.69 0. For International securities the size breakpoint is the 80th percentile by country.40 CAPM Alpha 0.87 2.42 0.40 0.85 3.22 1. Information ratio is equal to 4factor alpha (intercept) divided by the standard deviation of the estimated residuals in the timeseries regression. The explanatory variables are the monthly returns from the market portfolio (MKT) and size (SMB). the size breakpoint is the median NYSE market equity.67 4. Sharpe ratios and information ratios are annualized. Alpha is the intercept in a timeseries regression of monthly excess return. We measure volatility changes as the 1month change in market volatility and split the sample into the top and bottom 30% high and low periods. “Recession” indicates NBER recessions. Panel A reports results from our Long Sample of domestic stocks.36 0.12 tstatistics CAPM Alpha 5.20 3. The QMJ factor return is the average return on the two high quality portfolios minus the average return on the two low quality (junk) portfolios. This table inc ludes all available common stocks on the CRSP/Xpressfeed merged database for the markets listed in Table I. growth.S.66 0.96 0.63 1.36 0. The sample period runs from June 1956 to December 2012. For U.07 0. “Expansion” indicates all other months. securities.07 5. first sorting on size.32 0.45 0.76 0.55 6. Panel B reports results from our Broad Sample of global stocks.77 4Factor Alpha 0.61 2. do not include currency hedging.56 0.S.59 0.65 1. Treasury bill rate.48 0.62 Number of months 678 110 568 21 135 227 227 226 226 All Periods Recession Expansion Severe Bear market Severe Bull M arket Low Volatility High Volatility Spike Up in Volatility Spike Down in Volatility Broad Sample Global. The sample period runs from June 1986 to December 2012.39 0.59 0. and momentum (UMD) factormimicking portfolios.62 0. safety and payout score are constructed in a similar manner.30 3. 1956 .32 0.74 0.68 0.38 2. At the end of each calendar month.
14 (0.02) 0.28 (1.30) 0.00 (0.14 (0.29) 0.07 (0.14 (4. t+36) Raw Alpha QMJ Profitability Growth Safety Payout Mean Adj R2 0.26) 0.52 (2.00 (0.01 (2.68) 1. and Pedersen – Tables and Figures – Page T9 .46) 1.21) 0.95) 0.40) 0.31) 0.27 (2.53) 0. “Mean Adj R2” is the average adjusted Rsquared across all the regression above. t+60) Raw Alpha Lefthand side Return (t) Raw Alpha Return (t.02 (2.79) 0.33) 0.03 (2.81) 1.44) 0.64) 1. t+12) Raw Alpha Return (t. t+36) Raw Alpha Return (t.92 (3. 1986 .87) 0.07 (0.20 (0. and 5% statistical significance is indicated in bold.38) 1.61) 0. Frazzini.16 (2.S.05 (0. growth.27 (1.00 (0.02) 0.17 (0.53 (1.01 (0.17 0.62) 0.11) 0.25 0.35) 0.29) 1. Panel B reports results from our Broad Sample of global stocks from June 1986 to December 2012.03 (1.05 (2. Each regression is run in two ways: Using the “raw” quality factor returns on the left hand side (“raw”) or using the quality factor with its exposures to the market.69 (2.58 (2.30 (1.04) 1. The intercept and prior returns are included in all regressions but not reported. 1956 .09) 0. Standard errors are adjusted for heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation (Newey and West (1987)) with lag length equal to the forecasting horizon.85) 0. size (SMB).73) 0.06) 0.31) 0.10 (3.94 (1.19 (0.79) 0.23) 0. t+60) Raw Alpha Return (t) Raw Alpha Return (t.55) 0.67 (2.2012) Return (t.S.Table VIII Time Variation of the Price of Quality: High Price of Quality Predicts Low QMJ Returns This table shows the time series regression of future quality factor returns on the lagged price of quality.53 (2.35) 1.37) 0.00 0.76) 0. the lagged price of quality.22 0.04) 0.32 (2.55 (2.68) 0.50) 0. .41 (2.73) 0.54) 0.14) 0.05 0.61 (0.00 (0.36 (1.41 (0.91 (1.58 (3.18 (0.01 (2.01 0. The right hand side variables are the lagged price of quality and past quality returns. booktomarket (HML).59) 0.41) 0.01 (0.70) 0.66 (1.22 0.37 (1.03 (2.36) 0.01 (3. stocks from June 1956 to December 2012.07 0.30 (2.54) 0.86) 0.58) 0.11 (1.21) 0. safety and payout factor) over the future 1. We report only the coefficient on the variable of interest.03) 0.10 0. and momentum (UMD) hedged out (denoted “alpha”).12 0.38 (2.06 (2.07 (1.91) 1.02 (2.62) 0.40) 2.67 (1.04 (2.75) 0. Panel A: Long Sample (U. Tstatistics are shown below the coefficient estimates.28 (0.63 (2.84 (3.66) 0.49 (0.02 (3.12 (0. The past quality return is defined as the portfolio–weighted average of the past 1year returns of the stocks in the quality portfolio.06 (0.08) 1.02 (1.08) 0.05 (2.00 0.76) 0.27) 0.02 (0.95) 0.08 0.00 (0.86 (2. Panel A reports results from our Long Sample of U.06) 0.37 (3.27) 1.37) 0.17) 0.15 0.34) 0. 12.92) 0.01 (0.34) 0.2012) Panel B: Broad Sample (Global.02 (0.65 (2.67) 0.06) 0.77 (1.77) 0. The lagged price of quality is the crosssectional regression coefficient of market to book score on quality (Table III.07) 0.04) 0.37) 1.20 (3.91) 1.17 (1.41) 0.21 (2. The left hand side is the cumulative excess return of the QMJ factor (or profitability.25 Quality Minus Junk – Asness.87) 0.02 (1.81) 0.01 0.01 (2. t+12) Raw Alpha Return (t.19 0. 36.01 (0.16) 0.49 (2. Panel A column (1) and (5) and Panel B columns (1)(4) and (6)(9)). or 60 months.64) 0.
36) 0.03 (0. 0.09 (2.Table IX Pricing HML.69) 0. Treasury bill rate.04 (0.64 (6.03) 0.36) 0.58 (5.35 1.39) 1.80) 0. stocks are assigned to two sizesorted portfolios based on their market capitalization.07 (1.02 (0.82) 0.31 0. and rebalanced every calendar month to maintain value weights. tstatistics are shown below the coefficient estimates.11 (0.77) HML 0. For U. Information ratio is equal to 4factor alpha (intercept) divided by the standard deviation of the estimated residuals in the timeseries regression.11 (0.90) 0. .18 0.34 0. The other variables are the monthly returns from the market portfolio (MKT) and size (SMB). Quality minus Junk (QMJ) factors are constructed as the intersection of six valueweighted portfolios formed on size and quality.08 (0.04 (1.53 1.10 0.61) 0.28 (2.13 (1.94 (9.04 (1. growth.47 0.52 (15.77 (8. and momentum (UMD) factormimicking portfolios.81) 0.66) UMD 0.04) 0.53 1. The sample period runs from June 1956 to December 2012.29 (5. first sorting on size. For International securities the size breakpoint is the 80th percentile by country.36 0.45 (2.2012) Lefthand side Excess Returns Alpha MKT SMB HML UMD QMJ Sharpe Ratio Information Ratio Adjusted R2 0.34) 0.52) SMB 0.86) 0.90) 0.05) 0.01 (0.62) 0.52 1.35 1. the size breakpoint is the median NYSE market equity.20 (7. Returns are in USD.46 0.13 0.01 (0.21 (2.33) 0.66 0. and Pedersen – Tables and Figures – Page T10 .81 (6.80) 0.02) 0.10 (2. securities.01 0.77) UMD 0.38) 0. Frazzini. Sharpe ratios and information ratios are annualized.89 (16.10) 0.81) 0. The QMJ factor return is the average return on the two high quality portfolios minus the average return on the two low quality (junk) portfolios.34 0.04 (1. and 5% statistical significance is indicated in bold.18 (5.16) 0.02 (0. HML and UMD factors of the remaining ones excluding and including the QMJ factor.36 0.81 (23.24) 0. Panel B reports results from our Broad Sample of global stocks.36 (3.24) 0.19 (7. safety and payout score are constructed in a similar manner.39) 0.54) 0.92) SMB 0.81 (15. We use conditional sorts. Panel A reports results from our Long Sample of domestic stocks.34 (2.18 0.02 (0.05) 0. refreshed every calendar month.60 1. The sample period runs from June 1986 to December 2012.22 0.54) HML 0. .03 (0. Alpha is the intercept in a timeseries regression of monthly excess return.45 0.11) 1.52) SMB 0.50 0.02 (0.96 0. 1956 .44) 0.83 (17.2012) UMD 0. Portfolios based on profitability.50) 0.35) 1.09) 0.94) . Returns and alphas are in monthly percent.33) 0. do not include currency hedging.24) 0.62) 0.70 (4.S.73) 0.06 (2. Panel A: Long Sample (U.36 0.74) 0.92) HML 0.04) 0.46) 0.05 (9.45 (2.33 0.80 (22. SMB and UMD This table shows calendartime portfolio returns and factor loadings. We run a regression of the SMB.08 (2.58 (2. Portfolios are valueweighted.34 (2.07 (6.23) 0.34) 0.66) HML 0.39) 0.95 0.60 1.20 (6.16 (7.70 (4.86) 0.23) 0.01) 0.05) 0. and excess returns are above the U.12 (3.79 (6.69) UMD 0.31) 0.27) 0.06) 0.52 0.34) 0.23 0.53 (16.01 (8.10) 0.24) 0.67 (9. then on quality.72 (4.47 0.18 0.S.46 0.46 0.58 (2.55 (23. booktomarket (HML). We form one set of portfolios in each country and compute global portfolios by weighting each country’s portfolio by the country’s total (lagged) market capitalization.34) 0.11 (2.17 0. This table includes all available common stocks on the CRSP/Xpressfeed merged database for the markets listed in Table I. 1986 .S.23 (8.07 SMB 0.55 Quality Minus Junk – Asness.08 (3.09 (3.28 (2.54) Panel B: Broad Sample (Global . At the end of each calendar month.03 (0.53 (22.06 (0.
Treasury bill rate.20 0.60 1.Figure 1 QMJ: 4Factor Adjusted Information Ratios This figure shows 4factor adjusted information ratios of Quality minus Junk (QMJ) factors. and excess returns are above the U.60 0.40 0. Information ratios are annualized.20 Quality Minus Junk – Asness.20 1. do not include currency hedging. Information ratios are equal to alpha divided by the standard deviation of the estimated residuals in the timeseries regression.00 United Kingdom United States Netherlands Australia Greece Hong Kong Belgium Germany New Zealand Singapore Denmark Sweden Austria Canada Israel Finland Spain France Ireland Italy Switzerland Norway 0. and momentum (UMD) factormimicking portfolios. and Pedersen – Tables and Figures – Page T11 Portugal Global Japan . Returns are in USD. 1.S. Frazzini. The explanatory variables are the monthly returns from the market portfolio (MKT) and size (SMB). Alpha is the intercept in a timeseries regression of monthly excess return. booktomarket (HML).80 0.40 1. This figure includes all available common stocks on the CRSP/Xpressfeed merged database for the markets listed in Table I.00 0.
Broad Sample (Global) Quality Minus Junk – Asness. 1986 . The sample period runs from June 1956 to December 2012. This figure includes all available common stocks on the CRSP/Xpressfeed merged database for the markets listed in Table I. and Pedersen – Tables and Figures – Page T12 2012 2010 . Frazzini. Returns are in USD.S. . Panel B reports results from our Broad Sample of global stocks.2012) 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% 1962 1971 1980 1986 1989 1995 1998 2004 2007 2010 2011 1956 1959 1965 1968 1974 1977 1983 1992 2001 50% QMJ Cumulative Return. 1956 .S. Long Sample (U.Figure 2 QMJ: Cumulative Returns This figure shows cumulative returns of Quality minus Junk (QMJ) factors. Panel A: Long Sample (U.) Panel B: Broad Sample (Global . do not include currency hedging. Panel A reports results from our Long Sample of domestic stocks.2012) 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1986 1989 1990 1992 1993 1996 1997 1999 2000 2003 2006 2007 1987 1988 1991 1994 1995 1998 2001 2002 2004 2005 2008 2009 20% QMJ Cumulative Return . The sample period runs from June 1986 to December 2012.
1986 . booktomarket (HML). and excess returns are above the U. and momentum (UMD) factormimicking portfolios. . and Pedersen – Tables and Figures – Page T13 2012 .2012) 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1987 1988 1991 1992 1995 1999 2002 2003 2006 2007 2010 2011 1986 1989 1990 1993 1994 1996 1997 1998 2000 2001 2004 2005 2008 2009 20% Cumulative 4Factor Alpha .) Panel B: Broad Sample (Global .2012) 500% 450% 400% 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% 1956 50% 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 Cumulative 4Factor Alpha. Panel A: Long Sample (U. The sample period runs from June 1956 to December 2012. 1956 .S.S. We plot cumulative abnormal returns (alpha plus regression residual) from the time series regression.S. Frazzini. The explanatory variables are the monthly returns from the market portfolio (MKT) and size (SMB). Long Sample (U. Alpha is the intercept in a timeseries regression of monthly excess return. Broad Sample (Global) Quality Minus Junk – Asness. This figure includes all available common stocks on the CRSP/Xpressfeed merged database for the markets listed in Table I. Panel B reports results from our Broad Sample of global stocks.Figure 3 QMJ: Cumulative 4Factor Alphas This figure shows 4factor adjusted cumulative returns of Quality minus Junk (QMJ) factors. Returns are in USD. Panel A reports results from our Long Sample of domestic stocks. do not include currency hedging. Treasury bill rate. The sample period runs from June 1986 to December 2012.
Treasury bill rate.00% 2. The sample period runs from June 1956 to December 2012.2012) 12.00% 0% 5% 10% 15% 2.00% 0.00% Market Excess Return 6. Frazzini. and Pedersen – Tables and Figures – Page T14 .00% 0% 5% 10% 15% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0. This figure includes all available common stocks on the CRSP/Xpressfeed merged database for the markets listed in Table I. 1956 .00% 6. and excess returns are above the U.00% 4.00% QMJ . .00% 0.00% QMJ .00% 4. The sample period runs from June 1986 to December 2012.00% 5.S. 1986 . Panel A: Long Sample (U. do not include currency hedging.2012) 10. Monthly excess returns and alphas on the yaxes and market excess returns on the xaxes.00% 8. Panel B reports results from our Broad Sample of global stocks.00% 8.00% 4.4factor alpha 10.00% 8.00% 10.00% 2.00% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 2.00% 4.00% 2.00% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 2.Figure 4 QMJ: Flight to Quality This figure shows monthly excess returns and 4factor alpha of Quality minus Junk (QMJ) factors. Alpha is the intercept in a timeseries regression of monthly excess return.S.00% Market Excess Return Quality Minus Junk – Asness.00% 10.00% 4.00% 15. booktomarket (HML).00% 6.00% 5% 0% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 10% 15% 20% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 0.4factor alpha 8.00% Market Excess Return Market Excess Return Panel B: Broad Sample (Global. The explanatory variables are the monthly returns from the market portfolio (MKT) and size (SMB).excess returns 8.00% 8. Panel A reports results from our Long Sample of domestic stocks.00% QMJ . and momentum (UMD) factormimicking portfolios.00% 10.00% 15. Returns are in USD.00% 4.00% 6.excess returns QMJ .00% 5.00% 6.00% 6.00% 10.
Figure 5 Cross Sectional Regressions Coefficient. Time Series of FMB Coefficients 0.400 0. the Price of Quality This figure reports coefficients from FamaMacbeth regressions.700 0. The dependent variable is the zscore of a stock’s market to book ratio (MB) in month t. column (1) and (7).000 1974 2001 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2004 2007 Long Sample (U.) Broad Sample (Global) Quality Minus Junk – Asness.600 0. panel A.200 0. and Pedersen – Tables and Figures – Page T15 2010 . We plot the time series of the cross sectional coefficients from table III.S.500 0.300 0. Frazzini.100 0. The explanatory variables are the quality scores in month t.
Our variables’ definitions are based on Altman (1968). we proxy shareholders’ equity by total assets ( ) minus the sum of total Quality Minus Junk – Asness. . Book equity is defined as shareholders’ equity minus preferred stock. Frazzini and Pedersen (2013) and Asness and Frazzini (2013). Penman. Working capital is defined as current assets minus current liabilities minus cash and short term instruments plus short term debt and income taxes payable . Danile and Titman (2006). Chen. Campbell. cash flow over assets (CFOA). return on assets (ROA). Xing. is net income divided ) ) ) by total assets is net income plus depreciation minus changes in working . unless specified. Richardson. Profitability We compute a profitability zscore by averaging zscores of gross profits over assets (GPOA). Hilscher.Appendix A A1: Variable Definitions In this section we report details of each variable used on our quality score. gross margin (GMAR) and low accruals (ACC): ( ) is equal to revenue minus costs of goods sold divided by total assets ( ) . and Tuna (2007). NovyMarx and Zhang (2011). Frazzini. Hodrick. Ang. and Zhang (2006). we use ). and Szilagyi (2008). . If both and are shareholders’ equity we use we use stockholders’ equity ( the sum of common equity ( ) and preferred stocks ( unavailable. return on equity (ROE). is net income divided by bookequity . and Pedersen – Appendix – Page A1 . To obtain ) but if not available. Ohlson (1980). capital and capital expenditures divided by total assets: ( is revenue minus costs of goods sold divided by total sales: ( is depreciation minus changes in working capital ( . Finally. XpressFeed data items refer to annual items and time subscripts refer to years. NovyMarx (2012). Variable names correspond to CRSP/XpressFeed data items and we omit the time subscript for contemporaneous variables.
or depending on shareholders’ equity the preferred stock value ( availability). and Pedersen – Appendix – Page A2 . Idiosyncratic volatility is equal to the rolling oneyear standard deviation of daily betaadjusted excess return. short term ( debt. We compute Ohlson’s OScore as Quality Minus Junk – Asness.liability ( ) and minority interest ( ). ) is minus total debt (the sum of long term debt. For correlations. Growth We compute a growth zscore by averaging zscores of fiveyear growth in gross profits over assets ( return on equity ( ) ) ) where . fiveyear growth in gross margin ( and fiveyear growth in (low) accruals ( ( ): ( Safety We compute a safety zscore by averaging zscores of low beta (BAB). fiveyear growth in ) ) where ) . Frazzini. is minus a stock’s idiosyncratic volatility . Betas are estimated as in Frazzini and Pedersen (2013) based on the product of the rolling oneyear daily standard deviation and the rolling fiveyear threeday correlations. we use threeday returns to account for nonsynchronous trading and a longer horizon because correlations are more stable than volatilities. minority interest and preferred stock) over total assets . To obtain book equity (BE). skipping the most recent trading day. fiveyear growth in cash flow over assets ( is equal to minus market beta – . . low leverage (LEV). we subtract from . low bankruptcy risk (Ohlson’s O and Altman’s Z) and low earnings volatility (EVOL): ( ) ) . fiveyear growth in return over assets ( where . low idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL).
1 Quarterly data is unavailable for some of our international sample. is a dummy equal to one if net is ). is equal to book value of debt ( current assets minus current liabilities scaled by adjusted assets ( is current liabilities divided by current assets 1 if total liabilities exceed total assets ( is pretax income over total liabilities changes in net income defined as ( ). Quality Minus Junk – Asness. We require at least twelve non missing quarters. is . earnings before interest and taxes.( – ( ) ) – where is adjusted total assets equal to total assets plus 10% of the difference ( ). is net income over assets * + ). retained earnings. all over total assets: ( is the standard deviation of quarterly ) over the past 60 quarters. market equity and sales. Frazzini. Altman’s ZScore is a income is negative for the current and prior fiscal year ( weighted average of working capital. If quarterly data is unavailable we use the standard deviation of annual Payout We compute a payout zscore by averaging zscores of net equity issuance ( issuance ( ) and total net payout over profits ( ( ): ) ). net debt over the past 5 years and we require five non missing fiscal years1. ) divided by ) is the consumer price . . between book equity and market equity index. and Pedersen – Appendix – Page A3 . ) (   . is a dummy equal to .
Frazzini.is ( minus oneyear percent change ) where in splitadjusted number ( of shares ) is splitadjusted shares outstanding. Booktomarket ratios follow Asness and Frazzini (2013). where stocks is minus oneyear percent change in total debt is the sum of long term debt. short term debt. Quality Minus Junk – Asness. and Pedersen – Appendix – Page A4 . is equal the sum of total net payout (net ) over the past 5 years divided by total income minus changes in book equity profits ( BooktoMarket ) over the past 5 years. minority interest and preferred . We require stocks to have a positive book equity and compute booktomarket as book equity divided by the most recent market equity .
econ. then on the second variable. We form one set of portfolios in each country and compute global factor portfolios by weighting each country’s portfolio by the country’s total (lagged) market capitalization. Frazzini.yale. securities.edu/~af227/data_library. value and momentum factors are constructed using six valueweighted portfolios formed on size (market value of equity ME) and booktomarket (book equity divided by the most recent market equity ) and 1year return (return over the prior 12 months. booktomarket (HML). For U. The size factor SMB is the average return on the 3 small portfolios minus the average return on the 3 big portfolios: ( ( ) ) The value factors HML is the average return on the two value portfolios minus the average return on the two growth portfolios: ( ) ( ) The momentum factor UMD is the average return on the two high return portfolios minus the average return on the two low return portfolios: ( ) ( ) Quality Minus Junk – Asness. The data can be downloaded at http://www. first sorting on size.htm. 1993 and 1996) and Asness and Frazzini (2013). skipping the most recent month). The portfolio construction follows Fama and French (1992. The market factor MKT is the valueweighted return on all available stocks minus the onemonth Treasury bill rate. and rebalanced every calendar month to maintain value weights. the size breakpoint is the median NYSE market equity.S. The size. We use conditional sorts.A2: Global Factor Returns In this section we report details of the construction of the market (MKT). Portfolios are valueweighted. stocks are assigned to two sizesorted portfolios based on their market capitalization. size (SMB). At the end of each calendar month. and Pedersen – Appendix – Page A5 . and momentum (UMD) portfolios used on the analysis. refreshed every calendar month. For International securities the size breakpoint is the 80th percentile by country.
Portfolio returns are in USD and do not include any currency hedging. Treasury bill rate. Quality Minus Junk – Asness. Frazzini.S. and Pedersen – Appendix – Page A6 . Excess returns are above the U.
98 1.05 1.35 0.49 0.30 0.11 0.20 0.71 0.61 0.15 2.38 0.09 0.29 0.19 0.19 2.58 1.06 0.44 0.38 0.11 0.65 0.46 0.91 1.39 0.56 0.82 0.61 0.51 0.04 0.27 0. safety and payout.02 0.65 0.19 0.17 0.13 0.03 0.33 P4 0.02 0. Portfolios are valueweighted.50 0.94 0.04 0.24 0.40 1.19 0.93 0. The sample period runs from June 1956 to December 2012.48 0.99 0.51 0.19 0.17 0.59 0.63 1.25 0.03 0.30 0.27 0.59 HL 3.81 0.85 0.20 0.12 0.05 0.00 0.78 0. refreshed every calendar month.12 1.2012 Profit (t) Profit (t + 12M) Profit (t + 36M) Profit (t + 60M) Profit (t + 120M) Growth (t) Growth (t + 12M) Growth (t + 36M) Growth (t + 60M) Growth (t + 120M) Safety (t) Safety (t + 12M) Safety (t + 36M) Safety (t + 60M) Safety (t + 120M) Payout (t) Payout (t + 12M) Payout (t + 36M) Payout (t + 60M) Payout (t + 120M) P1 (Low) 1.68 1.15 5.77 3.12 0.72 0.28 1.07 0.34 0.50 P9 1.78 0.11 1.61 44.11 0.35 0.34 0.04 0.66 0.02 0.05 0.21 1.17 0.83 62.25 0.46 0.07 0.60 0.35 0.07 0.00 54.06 25.43 P7 0.80 0.34 1.39 0.08 0.39 0.54 0.93 54.39 1.39 0.20 2.46 0.20 0.66 0.93 0.54 61.17 0. sorts are based on NYSE breakpoints.11 0.09 0. The sample period runs from June 1986 to December 2012.80 0.55 1.37 0.11 0.75 0.14 0.21 0. Panel A reports results from our Long Sample of domestic stocks.39 0.67 1.94 1.23 0.41 0.75 0.14 0.13 0.40 P6 0.51 1.18 0.58 HL 3.23 0.99 0.37 0.21 0.26 0.10 0.39 31. Each calendar month.21 0.30 0.22 0.22 0.11 0. Panel A: Long Sample (U.36 0.07 0.02 0.25 0.09 2.82 34.27 0.26 0.79 0.31 1.25 0.42 0.26 P5 0. Standard errors are adjusted for heterskedasticity and autocorrelation with a lag length of five years (Newey and West (1987)) and 5% significance is indicated in bold.90 0.36 0.11 0.38 0.60 0.23 0.56 0. We form one set of portfolios in each country and compute global portfolios by weighting each country’s portfolio by the country’s total (lagged) market capitalization.69 0.30 0.03 0.11 0.06 0.23 0.95 2.22 0.14 0.86 0.53 0.17 0.36 0.50 0.80 0.48 0.52 0.51 0.46 HL tstat 63.15 0.20 0. and rebalanced every calendar month to maintain value weights.67 70.34 0.63 0.11 0.81 0. growth.00 4.08 0.11 0.11 0.49 P8 0.68 0.10 0.03 0.50 0.64 0.17 0.18 0.12 0.58 101.04 0.29 0.25 0.22 0.22 38.97 16.38 41. stocks in each country in are ranked in ascending order on the basis of their profitability.62 41.48 0.52 0.37 3.22 P3 0.41 2.13 0.29 1.76 1.69 0.40 0.49 P8 0.68 0.46 0. Panel B reports results from our Broad Sample of global stocks.22 0.02 0.06 0.58 1.76 0.65 1.97 0.18 0.10 0.11 0.28 0.38 0.68 0.12 0.45 1.45 1.2012 Profit (t) Profit (t + 12M) Profit (t + 36M) Profit (t + 60M) Profit (t + 120M) Growth (t) Growth (t + 12M) Growth (t + 36M) Growth (t + 60M) Growth (t + 120M) Safety (t) Safety (t + 12M) Safety (t + 36M) Safety (t + 60M) Safety (t + 120M) Payout (t) Payout (t + 12M) Payout (t + 36M) Payout (t + 60M) Payout (t + 120M) P1 (Low) 1.81 0.36 P4 0. We report the time series average of the valueweighted cross sectional means.52 4.52 0.25 0.44 0.03 0.01 9.26 24.02 0.38 0.37 0.71 0.35 1.21 0.19 0.36 0.37 32.23 0.45 0.29 0.12 0.36 13.03 0.12 0.43 0.44 0.55 0.03 0.14 0.90 1.66 0. This table reports the valueweighted average of quality measures across stocks in the portfolio at portfolio formation (t) up to the subsequent ten years (t + 120 months).54 0.31 1.18 0.06 0.45 0.89 0.13 0.98 0.92 0.13 0.91 0.18 1.45 P7 0.25 38.01 0.71 0.78 1.01 0.60 0.03 0.60 0.50 0.32 0.25 0.03 0.24 0.43 0.80 0.15 0.01 0.10 0.46 0.25 18.76 0.73 0.50 0.65 0.98 3.24 0.23 0.28 0.02 0.08 0.15 0.12 0.44 0.41 57.42 Quality Minus Junk – Asness.49 0.07 0.43 Panel B: Broad Sample (Global) 1986 .19 1.51 0.08 0.65 1.19 0.S.94 44.86 0.93 0.49 0.24 0.57 P10 (High) 1.15 0.54 0.78 17.66 0.32 0.51 1.76 0.07 0.36 0.36 1.12 P2 0.09 0.15 0.12 1.86 0.74 0.18 1.72 1.78 0.54 0.25 0.38 0.S.58 2.13 0.11 0.06 0.21 0.43 HL tstat 68.58 26.63 0.69 0.71 14.56 0.18 0. The ranked stocks are assigned to one of ten portfolios.14 0. U.36 0.48 0.49 1.00 0.69 0.25 0.48 0.45 0.73 50.24 0.03 0.37 0.40 0.28 37.39 1.19 0.22 0.28 1.25 0.13 0.41 0.65 0.38 0.Table A1 Persistence of Quality Measures This table shows average quality scores.39 0.35 5.02 0.49 0.31 0.30 0.54 0.85 21.50 0.90 0.05 0.25 0.14 0.47 0.58 0.91 0.80 0.03 0.53 P9 1.29 3.12 0.58 0.24 0.50 0.45 0.03 23.26 27.51 P10 (High) 1. Frazzini.31 P5 0.04 0.02 0.45 0.16 P2 0.71 1.02 0.07 0.02 0.42 P6 0.83 30.02 0.49 1.10 0.26 0.38 0.15 0.65 0.95 0.67 0.24 0. and Pedersen – Appendix – Page A7 .08 0.01 0.32 7.06 0.26 P3 0.49 0.41 0.57 0.53 3.66 0.13 0.58 0.27 0.14 1.03 1.03 1.43 0.55 1.17 0.66 0.65 1.71 20.56 0.09 0.) 1956 .23 1.08 0.41 0.12 0.54 0.82 0.15 0.24 0.31 0.89 49.27 0.15 0.04 0.
95 0.23) 0.80) 0.17 0.67) 0.19 (0.61) 0.27) 1. securities. The QMJ factor return is the average return on the two high quality portfolios minus the average return on the two low quality (junk) portfolios.10) 0. and rebalanced every calendar month to maintain value weights.38) Low Quality Small 0.95 0.38 (3.54) 0.25 (4.36 (1.96 0. and momentum (UMD) factormimicking portfolios.31) 0.02) 0. 1986 .40 0.24 (3.S.20 (8.18 (13. do not include currency hedging.56 (3.00) 0.31 (6.30 (0.02 (0.02 (1.59 (9.91) 0.35) 0.10) 0. We use conditional sorts.06 (4.99 0.23 (2.31 (2. safety and payout score are constructed in a similar manner.82) 1. For International securities the size breakpoint is the 80th percentile by country.04 (1.43) 0.12 (3. and 5% statistical significance is indicated in bold.54) 0.10 0. Treasury bill rate.75) 0.21 (6.32 (6.68 (11.45 (5.28) 0.22) Big 0.65) 1.25 (5.70) Panel B: Broad Sample (Global .83) 0.57) 0.05) 0.96) 0.93 0.2012) High Quality Excess Returns CAPMalpha 3factor alpha 4factor alpha MKT SMB HML UMD Sharpe Ratio Information Ratio (4factor) Adjusted Rsquare Small 0.95 0. tstatistics are shown below the coefficient estimates.94) 0.19 (86.92 (4. Portfolios are valueweighted.12 (2.27 (7.37) 1.45) 0.43 (4.25 (17.55 (7. Panel B reports results from our Broad Sample of global stocks. and excess returns are above the U.43) 0.96 0.14 (99. the size breakpoint is the median NYSE market equity.38 (2.53 0.05) 0.15 (5.12 (5.70 (46.30) High Quality Small 0. Panel C report results by country. Portfolios based on profitability.70) 0.10) 0.57 0.27) 0.98) 0.08 (1.84 0.93 (115.26 (3.10 (3.84) 0.90 (75.37) 0.16 0.46) 0.24 (14.49) 0.52 (5.27) 0.85) 0.95 0.20) 0.87) 0. and Pedersen – Appendix – Page A8 .S.49 0.50) 0. The sample period runs from June 1956 to December 2012. refreshed every calendar month.23) 0.14 (2.68) 0. stocks are assigned to two sizesorted portfolios based on their market capitalization.66 (10.96 0.51) Big 0.2012) QMJ 0.15) 0.88) 0.50) 0.46 0.10) Big 0.61 (7. For U.85 (64.15 (57.21 (3.40 (4. growth.43) 1.52 (5.08 0.18 (15.61 (22.98 0.82) 0. first sorting on size.63 0.38 (17.95) Low Quality Small 0.00 (23. Panel A reports results from our Long Sample of domestic stocks.30 (1.24 (4.17 (9.44) Big 0. Frazzini.42) 0. Quality minus Junk (QMJ) factors are constructed as the intersection of six valueweighted portfolios formed on size and quality. Returns are in USD.17) 0. We form one set of portfolios in each country and compute global portfolios by weighting each country’s portfolio by the country’s total (lagged) market capitalization.60 Quality Minus Junk – Asness.89) 0.19 0. Alpha is the intercept in a timeseries regression of monthly excess return.90 (87. Returns and alphas are in monthly percent.20 0.51) 0.50 (2.01 (0. booktomarket (HML).21) 0.79) 0.75 (2.55) 0.40 (6.22) 0.95 0.27 (7.51) 0.06 (1.57 0.50) 0.67) 0.32 (4.58 1.62 1.06 (2.06 (5.02 (0.16 (8.17 (3. The sample period runs from June 1986 to December 2012. The explanatory variables are the monthly returns from the market portfolio (MKT) and size (SMB).33) 0.32) 0. Panel A: Long Sample (U.36) 0.02 (1. At the end of each calendar month.S.Table A2 Quality Minus Junk Components This table shows calendartime portfolio returns and factor loadings.11 (53.33 (9. This table includes all available common stocks on the CRSP/Xpressfeed merged database for the markets listed in Table I.54) QMJ 0.14) 0.32 (3.34 (6. 1956 .72 0.13 (71.18) 0.91) 0.26) 0. then on quality.22) 1. Sharpe ratios and information ratios are annualized. .07 (4.13 (5.13 (2. Information ratio is equal to 4factor alpha (intercept) divided by the standard deviation of the estimated residuals in the timeseries regression.46 1.12 (7.31) 0.71) 0.03) 0.56) 0.
44 0. stocks are assigned to two sizesorted portfolios based on their market capitalization.Table A3 Robustness Checks: QMJ by Time Period and by Size This table shows calendartime portfolio returns and factor loadings.2012 1988 .75 0.S. Portfolios based on profitability.S.53 6.14 3.06 678 678 678 678 678 678 678 678 678 678 324 324 324 324 324 324 324 324 324 324 Quality Minus Junk – Asness.2012 1991 .36 0.59 0.93 0.82 1.35 2.99 0.48 0. The explanatory variables are the monthly returns from the market portfolio (MKT) and size (SMB). and excess returns are above the U.22 3.52 0.61 0. Information ratio is equal to 4factor alpha (intercept) divided by the standard deviation of the estimated residuals in the timeseries regression.43 0. growth.26 4.2012 1992 .73 0.38 3.34 7.50 0.24 5. Quality minus Junk (QMJ) factors are constructed as the intersection of six valueweighted portfolios formed on size and quality.2012 0.1985 1986 .44 0.43 0.54 4. For International securities the size breakpoint is the 80th percentile by country.55 3. We use conditional sorts. For U.65 0.77 1.2012 1995 . securities.83 3. Panel B reports results from our Broad Sample of global stocks.52 2.87 5. then on quality. The sample period runs from June 1986 to December 2012.39 0.34 0.91 1.54 3.37 6.60 0.63 0. This table includes all available common stocks on the CRSP/Xpressfeed merged database for the markets listed in Table I. and Pedersen – Appendix – Page A9 .33 0.35 0.33 0.03 5.17 0. Returns are in USD.22 3.86 0. safety and payout score are constructed in a similar manner.26 2.2012 1990 .1985 1963 . booktomarket (HML).98 0.49 2.77 0.1985 1964 . and momentum (UMD) factormimicking portfolios.73 0.33 0.77 0.52 0.1985 1957 .26 3.83 0.01 1.2005 2006 . Panel A: QM J by Subperiod Universe Sample Period Firm Size All All All All All Excess return Tstat Excess return 4factor alpha Tstat Alpha Sharpe Ratio Information Ratio (4factor) Number of months Long Sample Long Sample Long Sample Broad Sample Broad Sample United States United States United States Global Global 1956 .1985 1960 .46 0.43 0.66 2.51 0. the size breakpoint is the median NYSE market equity.57 0.31 0.40 0.86 0.22 0.84 0.1985 1962 .96 0.48 6.15 0.55 0.67 0. We form one set of portfolios in each country and compute global portfolios by weighting each country’s portfolio by the country’s total (lagged) market capitalization.60 0.86 0. At the end of each calendar month.2012 1989 .60 0. do not include currency hedging.03 5.69 0.38 0.04 0.63 0.43 0.62 0.66 0.41 3.2012 1986 .70 5.79 0.49 0.2005 2006 .43 0.99 7.13 5.00 4.58 0.2012 1994 .1985 1986 . refreshed every calendar month. and 5% statistical significance is indicated in bold.54 1.55 4.70 0. and rebalanced every calendar month to maintain value weights. Panel C report results by country.1985 1961 . Alpha is the intercept in a timeseries regression of monthly excess return. The sample period runs from June 1956 to December 2012.41 0.44 0.89 4.25 0.73 0. Sharpe ratios and information ratios are annualized.87 1.46 0.98 2.1985 1959 .48 0.27 1.20 6.2012 0. Panel A reports results from our Long Sample of domestic stocks.90 0.71 1.59 0. Treasury bill rate. Returns and alphas are in monthly percent.93 6.28 1.03 0.41 3.2012 1993 .72 0.97 0.45 0.27 0.47 3.86 0.79 3.21 5.22 3.51 0.64 1.32 0. The QMJ factor return is the average return on the two high quality portfolios minus the average return on the two low quality (junk) portfolios. Portfolios are valueweighted.94 0.74 2.50 4. Frazzini.72 0.69 9.37 0.49 0.64 0.28 0.07 354 240 84 240 84 Panel B : QM J by Size Decile Universe Sample Period Excess return Tstat Excess return 4factor alpha Tstat Alpha Sharpe Ratio Information Ratio Number of months P1 (small) P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7 P8 P9 P10 (Large) P1 (small) P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7 P8 P9 P10 (Large) United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States Global Global Global Global Global Global Global Global Global Global 1956 .83 0.2012 1987 . tstatistics are shown below the coefficient estimates.60 2.29 0.48 0.52 0.97 4.82 5.76 3.13 2. first sorting on size.77 0.46 0.25 1.32 3.1985 1958 .62 0.1985 1956 .87 3.77 0.
63 0.25 0.10 1.25 0.61 0.19 0. then on quality.77 0.82 0.14 2. Alpha is the intercept in a timeseries regression of monthly excess return.07 0.49 0.35 0.20 1.16 0.16 0. first sorting on size.05 0.68 0.17 0.01 3.38 0.24 0.56 0.47 0. For International securities the size breakpoint is the 80th percentile by country.74 0.45 0.26 2.61 0. Panel A reports results from our Long Sample of domestic stocks.23 4.17 0.42 0.70 1.52 0.01 2.89 0.63 0.27 0.76 0.51 0.07 0.50 0.56 0.85 2.11 0.08 0.49 0.69 1.40 0.16 0.10 0.92 0.47 2.59 0.18 0.31 0.45 0.11 0. and 5% statistical significance is indicated in bold.71 0.68 0.01 0.56 1.63 0.37 0.77 0.46 0.14 1.39 0.33 0.71 0. stocks are assigned to two sizesorted portfolios based on their market capitalization. Panel A: Small Cap Excess return Australia Austria Belgium Canada Switzerland Germany Denmark Spain Finland France United Kingdom Greece Hong Kong Ireland Israel Italy Japan Netherlands Norway New Zealand Portugal Singapore Sweden United States Global 0.26 0.61 0.17 1.03 8.69 0.06 0.95 2.60 0.19 0.40 0.18 0.45 1.24 0.33 1.55 0.66 0.95 2.48 0.81 1. The QMJ factor return is the average return on the two high quality portfolios minus the average return on the two low quality (junk) portfolios.32 0.41 1. Treasury bill rate. growth. This table includes all available common stocks on the CRSP/Xpressfeed merged database for the markets listed in Table I.68 0.02 1.21 0.87 0.21 1.42 2. do not include currency hedging.68 0.23 1.71 0.36 0.45 0.24 0. Frazzini.25 0.46 0.37 0.65 2.60 0.68 0. Returns and alphas are in monthly percent.12 0.19 0.41 0.76 1.40 3.98 0.70 0.87 0.98 Panel B: Large Cap 4factor Alpha 0.73 0. We form one set of portfolios in each country and compute global portfolios by weighting each country’s portfolio by the country’s total (lagged) market capitalization.46 0.05 2.93 2.55 0. booktomarket (HML).09 0.24 0.87 3.20 1.97 0.96 0.59 0.19 0.59 1.04 0.80 1.78 0.17 0.34 0.60 0. Returns are in USD.62 2.52 0.16 0.08 0.56 Tstat Excess return 1.69 1.72 0.08 0.30 0.56 0.20 Tstat Excess return 0. The explanatory variables are the monthly returns from the market portfolio (MKT) and size (SMB).97 Quality Minus Junk – Asness.31 0.49 0.28 0.36 Sharpe Information Ratio Ratio (4factor) 0.40 0.35 2.31 0.37 0.56 3.10 0.78 3.03 0.66 0. Panel C report results by country.73 0.48 0.21 0.34 1.29 0.05 0.19 1.49 Tstat Alpha 2.31 0.50 0. the size breakpoint is the median NYSE market equity.89 1.47 0. We use conditional sorts.04 0.22 0.42 4.36 0.73 0.23 0.18 0.01 0.10 0.25 0.60 0.75 4.35 0.34 0.61 0.47 1.77 3. and Pedersen – Appendix – Page A10 .16 0.23 4.35 1.77 2.63 0.22 0.38 0.65 1.53 0.06 1.57 0.06 0.72 0.55 0.59 2.58 4.Table A4 Robustness Checks: QMJ among Small and Large by Country This table shows calendartime portfolio returns and factor loadings.46 0. securities.93 0.75 2.18 0.67 0.34 0.55 0. For U.18 0.07 0. Portfolios based on profitability.03 0.22 0.72 0.02 0. At the end of each calendar month. and rebalanced every calendar month to maintain value weights.57 0.09 0.09 0.60 Sharpe Information Ratio Ratio (4factor) 0.26 1.09 0.92 Excess return 0. tstatistics are shown below the coefficient estimates.39 1. Quality minus Junk (QMJ) factors are constructed as the intersection of six valueweighted portfolios formed on size and quality.94 0.51 8.50 1.30 0.69 2.84 0.39 0.49 0.90 0. safety and payout score are constructed in a similar manner.98 2.78 0.93 1.09 1.41 Tstat Alpha 1.18 3. and momentum (UMD) factormimicking portfolios. and excess returns are above the U.16 0. Portfolios are valueweighted.50 0.42 0.S.03 0. Sharpe ratios and information ratios are annualized.47 1.66 0.13 0.37 0. Panel B reports results from our Broad Sample of global stocks.72 1.00 1.98 1.06 0.37 2.45 0.25 0.37 0.S.22 0.88 2.63 0. refreshed every calendar month.16 0.94 0.03 0.85 0. The sample period runs from June 1956 to December 2012.51 2.06 0.45 0.11 0.49 0.02 2.72 1.90 0.62 2.34 0.62 0.60 4factor Alpha 0.55 0.08 1.50 0.32 0.47 0.69 2.43 0.04 1.32 0. Information ratio is equal to 4factor alpha (intercept) divided by the standard deviation of the estimated residuals in the timeseries regression.58 0.26 1.61 0.52 0.64 0.72 0.30 0.43 1.26 0. The sample period runs from June 1986 to December 2012.46 1.42 1.12 0.79 1.53 0.
Table A5 QMJ.26) 0.58 Quality Minus Junk – Asness.32 1.77) 0.13 (1. We form one set of portfolios in each country and compute global portfolios by weighting each country’s portfolio by the country’s total (lagged) market capitalization. the size breakpoint is the median NYSE market equity.49) Safety 0.16 (11.01 (0.46 0. Averaging Portfolios This table shows calendartime portfolio returns and factor loadings.S.46) 0.04 (3.16 (6.32) 0.09 (4.15 (3.33 (4.04 (3. stocks are assigned to two sizesorted portfolios based on their market capitalization.15 (3. refreshed every calendar month.10 (2.26 (6.11 (13. Panel A: Long Sample (U. 1986 .06 (0.61) 0. The factor return is the average return on the two high quality portfolios minus the average return on the two low quality (junk) portfolios.16 (3. Portfolios are valueweighted. and momentum (UMD) factormimicking portfolios.19) 0.42 0.19) 0. For International securities the size breakpoint is the 80th percentile by country.98) 0.21 (3.36 (8. Panel A reports results from our Long Sample of domestic stocks.85) 0.29 0.06 (2.63) 0. Returns and alphas are in monthly percent.30) 0.63) 0.42) 0.51) Growth 0.96) 0.63 0.28) 0. Alternative Definition. then on quality.30 (11.14 (11. tstatistics are shown below the coefficient estimates.69) 0.10 (14. and Pedersen – Appendix – Page A11 .44) 0.60 0.40 0.52 0.41 (6.26) 0.33 (9.17 (9.01 (0. We build one portfolio for each measure and average the portfolio return to obtain a QMJ factor ( ) where ( ) .08) 0.38 (9.32 (5.56) 0.20) 0. Information ratio is equal to 4factor alpha (intercept) divided by the standard deviation of the estimated residuals in the timeseries regression.00) 0.32 0.24 (3.78 0.37) 0.30 (7.91) 0.52 0.01) 0.01 (0.86) 0.32) 0.26 (16.94) 0.05 (4.99) 0.07) 0. Alpha is the intercept in a timeseries regression of monthly excess return. .81 0.83) 0.11) 0.14 (14.19) 0.22 (6.45) 0. and excess returns are above the U.08 0.53 1.56 0.43) 0.19 (4.95 0.82) 0.28 (11.06 (7. Returns are in USD. We use conditional sorts.28 (8.21 (5.06 (3.71) 0. Frazzini.96) Panel B: Broad Sample (Global .02 (2.31 (6.29 (6.55) 0. Sharpe ratios and information ratios are annualized.19) 0.75) 0.14 (10.88) 0.12 (2.2012) Payout 0.17 (4. This table includes all available common stocks on the CRSP/Xpressfeed merged database for the markets listed in Table I.15 (12.90) 0.28 (10.37 (6.31 (6. and rebalanced every calendar month to maintain value weights.91) Growth 0.05) 0.37 (8.96) 0.97) 0.10 (6.19 (9.41) 0. Panel C report results by country.22 (3.10 0.74) 0.49) Safety 0.18 (14.30 (19.17 (18. securities.13) 0.87) 0.70 0.44) 0.69) 0. The sample period runs from June 1956 to December 2012.10 (10.53 1.59 0.06 (5.35) 0.S.70) 0.26 (5.18) 0.89) 0.19 1.27 (4.11 (8.69) 0.11) 0.25 0.30 (8.04 (2.25 (4.30 (18.01) 0.39 0. do not include currency hedging.20 (11.23) 0. Panel B reports results from our Broad Sample of global stocks.04 (2.06 (0. first sorting on size.31) 0.12 (6.70) 0.2012) QMJ Profitability Excess Returns CAPMalpha 3factor alpha 4factor alpha MKT SMB HML UMD Sharpe Ratio Information Ratio Adjusted R2 0. The explanatory variables are the monthly returns from the market portfolio (MKT) and size (SMB). Portfolios are constructed as the intersection of six valueweighted portfolios formed on size and a quality measure. booktomarket (HML).67 1.99) Payout 0.43 0. and 5% statistical significance is indicated in bold.19 (3.41) 0.S.63) 0.27 (9.13 (6.37) 0. 1956 .19 (3.14 (1. Treasury bill rate.00) 0. ( ) . ( ) and ( ).81) 0.01) 0.50) 0. The sample period runs from June 1986 to December 2012.36 0.25 (5.64 0.84 1.31 (6.28 (12.54) 0.20 (14.79 0.20) 0. For U.37) 0.44) QMJ Profitability 0.22 (19.84) 0.39) 0. At the end of each calendar month.
63) 0.26) 0.22) 0.02 (1.12 (1.81 (3. Tstatistics are shown below the coefficient estimates.44) 0.41) 2.36) 1.10) 0.22) 0.66) 0. growth.00 0.26 (2.15 (0.40 (2.26) 0.79 (2.58) 0.87) 1. and Pedersen – Appendix – Page A12 .12 0.12 (0.67 (2.61) 0.30) 0.63) 0.57) 1.34) 0. Frazzini.03 (1.26 0.82) 0.66 (1. The left hand side is the future cumulative excess return (or cumulative 4factor alphas) of the QMJ factor (or profitability.68) 0. Alpha is the intercept in a timeseries regression of monthly excess return. Standard errors are adjusted for heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation (Newey and West (1987)) with lag length equal to the forecasting horizon.95) 0.16 0.79) 0.37 (1.36 (1.39) 0.01 (0.20 (2.11) 0.22 (2. booktomarket (HML).09 0.19 0.01 (0.24 (2.12) 1.42 (3.69 (2.43) 0.81) 0.95) 0.01 0.00 0. The sample period runs from June 1986 to December 2012. The explanatory variables are the monthly returns from the market portfolio (MKT) and size (SMB). The right hand side variables are the lagged cross sectional regression coefficient of log of market to book on quality zscore.2012) Panel B: Broad Sample (Global.23) 2.40) 1.50 (4.55) 2.89) 0.68 (3.39 (0.35) 1.03 0. t+60) Raw Alpha Lefthand side Return (t) Raw Alpha Return (t.38 (3.S.28 (6.46 (1.10) 0.27 (1.01 0.28 0. safety and payout factor).33) 0.10 (0.21 (0.35) 1.31) 0.99) 1.35 (2.65 (3. t+12) Raw Alpha Return (t.32 (3.03 (2.00 (0.21 0.48) 1.58) 0.84 (3.47) 0.04 (1. t+12) Raw Alpha Return (t.28) 0.05 (2. 1956 .37) 0.44 (3.06 (2.69) 1. The sample period runs from June 1956 to December 2012.53) 1.95 (2.63) 0.13) 0.Table A6 Time Variation of the Price of Quality: High Price of Quality Predicts Low QMJ Returns.33 0.17 (1.00 (0. . The intercept and prior returns are included in all regressions but not reported.08) 0.35 (2. Panel A reports results from our Long Sample of domestic stocks.06 (2.05) 0.81 (1.07 (0. “Mean Adj R2” is the average adjusted rsquared across all the regression above.14) 0.13 (0.19 (4.33) 0.53) 0.07) 0.48 (1. t+36) Raw Alpha QMJ Profitability Growth Safety Payout Mean Adj R2 0.79) 0.04 (2.11) 2.48) 0.85) 0.03 (2.45) 0.42) 0.09 (5. Panel A: Long Sample (U.64) 0. t+36) Raw Alpha Return (t.42 (4.01 (1.85) 0.24 (1.64 (1.42 (0.37 (3.01 (1.59 (5.19) 1.66 (1.20) 1.37 Quality Minus Junk – Asness.65 (3.22) 0.67 (4.66) 2.11 (0.01 (1.48) 0.07) 1.07 0. Using raw BooktoMarket This table shows time series regression of future factor returns on lagged cross sectional regression coefficients. 1986 .48 (3. Panel B reports results from our Broad Sample of global stocks.50) 0.2012) Return (t. We report the coefficient on the lagged cross sectional regression slope.37) 0.01 (0.00 (0.67) 0.23 (4.02 (0.68) 0. The prior return is defined as the portfolio–weighted average of the past 1year returns of the stocks in the portfolio.83 (3.80) 0.06) 0.36) 2.20) 0.20 (2.35 (6.03 (2.83) 0.14) 0.04 (2.89) 0.46 (1. and momentum (UMD) factormimicking portfolios.16 (0.24) 0.05 (0.19) 0. and 5% statistical significance is indicated in bold.01 (0.11 0. t+60) Raw Alpha Return (t) Raw Alpha Return (t.49 (2.97) 0.
20 0. The explanatory variables are the monthly returns from the market portfolio (MKT) and size (SMB).Figure A1 QMJ: 4Factor Adjusted Information Ratios by Size This figure shows 4factor adjusted information ratios of Quality minus Junk (QMJ) factors. 1. booktomarket (HML).00 Australia Greece Hong Kong Belgium United Kingdom New Zealand Switzerland Singapore Germany Denmark Sweden Austria Canada Finland France Spain Israel Italy United States Netherlands Ireland Norway 0. and excess returns are above the U.20 0. securities.00 0.40 1. and Pedersen – Appendix – Page A13 Portugal Global Japan . Frazzini.20 1. Alpha is the intercept in a timeseries regression of monthly excess return. and momentum (UMD) factormimicking portfolios. This figure includes all available common stocks on the CRSP/Xpressfeed merged database for the markets listed in Table I. For International securities the size breakpoint is the 80th percentile by country. Returns are in USD.S.80 0.40 Panel A: Small Cap Panel B: Large Cap Quality Minus Junk – Asness. do not include currency hedging. Information ratios are annualized. the size breakpoint is the median NYSE market equity. Information ratios are equal to alpha divided by the standard deviation of the estimated residuals in the timeseries regression.40 0.S.60 0. For U. Treasury bill rate.
200 0.300 0.200 0.400 0.100 0.S.000 0.100 0.Broad Sample (Global) 0. Frazzini.600 0.400 1983 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 Profitability Growth Safety Payout Time Series of FMB Coefficients .200 0.Figure A2 Cross Sectional Regressions Coefficient.300 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Profitability Growth Safety Payout Quality Minus Junk – Asness. and Pedersen – Appendix – Page A14 2011 2010 .000 0. column (1) and (7) .800 0.Long Sample (U.200 0.500 0. We plot the time series of the cross sectional coefficients from table III.) 0.400 0. the Price of Quality This figure reports coefficients from FamaMacbeth regressions. The explanatory variables are the quality scores in month t . Time Series of FMB Coefficients . The dependent variable is the zscore of a stock’s market to book ratio (MB) in month t. panel A.