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2014

Issue 07

Week Ending 13-02-2014

Weekly Market Wrap Up
Stat Page
Weekly Stock Trends
S&P SL20 Watch

Pg 02
Pg 03
Pg 04

Local Economy in Brief
Currency Moves
Inflation & Interest Rates
Colombo Tea Auction
Tourism

Pg 05
Pg 06
Pg 06
Pg 06

Global Market
Equity Market Outlook
Global Commodity Trend

Pg 07
Pg 08

Research Chat:
Corporate Update- CTC

Pg 09

Our Core Coverage

Pg 10- Pg 11

Weekly Stat Page
Weekly Market Statistics

Weekly Turnover and Volume

Daily Index Movement
8,000

500
400

LKR ('Mn)

6,000

300
4,000

200
2,000

('Mn)

6,300
6,250
6,200
6,150
6,100
6,050
6,000
5,950

0
24-Jan

ASPI

31-Jan

Turnover (LHS)

7-Feb

14-Feb

Volume (RHS)

Weekly Foreign Purchases and Sales

70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

Current
Previous
6083.39
6141.72
3325.76
3369.30
4,519.6
7,302.6
240.8
296.0
2,539.5
2,563.9

WoW %
-0.9%
-1.3%
-38.1%
-18.7%
-0.9%

100

0

Daily Foreign Activity

ASPI
S&P SL20
Turnover (LKR 'bn)
Volume ('mn)
Market Cap. (LKR 'bn)

Net Foreign 188

208

-3064

Weekly Foreign Flow
LKR ('mn)
Foreign Purchases
Foreign Sales
Net Foreign Inflow
Foreign Participation

Current
Previous
900.7
1,339.2
1,978.9
4,402.9
-1,078.2
-3,063.7
33%
26%

WoW %
-32.7%
-55.1%
-65%
30.2%

-1078

Weekly Market Valuations

5,000

Current
Previous
16.1
16.4
2.0
2.0
2.8
2.8

4,000
LKR ('Mn)

PER
PBV
DY

3,000
2,000

WoW %
-1.4%
-1.4%
0.0%

1,000

Weekly Sector Statistics

0
24-Jan

Foreign Activity

Linear (Foreign Activity)

31-Jan

Foreign Buying

7-Feb

14-Feb

Foreign Sales

Change in Foreign Holding
Growth in Foreign Holding
HNB (+)
TEXTURED JERSEY
SAMPATH (+)
CHEVRON (+)
NESTLE (+)

Growth in Growth in
Value
Foreign Decline in Foreign Holding
LKR 'mn
Holding
220.0
26.2
25.5
12.3
11.6

1.8%
0.62%
0.6%
0.12%
0.01%

JKH
RICHARD PIERIS
DISTILLERIES
HNB[X.0000] (+)
JKH[W.0022]

Decline in
Value
LKR 'mn
-1375.9
-12.7
-11.6
-9.3
-7.7

Decline in
Foreign
Holding
-1.14%
-0.17%
-0.07%
-0.2%
-0.63%

BANKS FINANCE & INS.
BEV. FOOD & TOBACCO
CHEM. & PHARMA.
CONS. & ENG.
DIVERSIFIED
HEALTH CARE
HOTELS & TRAVELS
LAND & PROPERTY
MANUFACTURING
MOTORS
PLANTATIONS
TELECOM

Current
Previous
13,498.9 13,802.0
21,220.7 21,592.8
6,180.0
6,441.6
2,797.9
2,859.5
1,762.3
1,800.2
779.7
796.1
3,177.6
3,197.7
579.6
593.9
2,954.3
3,045.8
15,324.0 15,485.9
728.7
738.4
169.6
159.0

WoW %
-2.2%
-1.7%
-4.1%
-2.2%
-2.1%
-2.1%
-0.6%
-2.4%
-3.0%
-1.0%
-1.3%
6.7%

Page | 2

Weekly Stock Trends
Weekly Top Gainers
Company

Current

Previous

WoW %

High

Low

Volume

Turnover

52 High

52 Low

BIMPUTH FINANCE

41.60

34.90

19.20%

41.90

32.00

39,961

1,595,295

41.90

13.20

MIRAMAR

47.90

40.30

18.86%

54.70

43.00

2,709

129,034

94.00

38.00

185.00

158.00

17.09%

185.00

185.00

1

185

221.00

89.60

CHEMANEX

82.90

73.00

13.56%

83.00

75.10

57,871

4,773,534

92.70

66.90

SLT

42.50

38.10

11.55%

42.70

37.20

1,034,519

41,734,188

45.50

33.00

MORISONS[NON VOTING]

Weekly Top Losers
Company
SERENDIB ENG.GRP
SWADESHI
HUEJAY
FINLAYS COLOMBO
PRINTCARE PLC

Current

Previous

WoW %

High

Low

89.60

114.30

-21.61%

119.00

89.50

15,000.00

19,000.00

-21.05%

15,000.00

Volume

Turnover

52 High

52 Low

29,189

2,879,860

210.00

89.50

15,000.00

1

15,000

19,000.00

5,000.30

61.60

76.80

-19.79%

61.70

61.20

209

12,867

99.80

45.20

245.20

298.90

-17.97%

295.00

240.60

116

33,548

320.00

210.10

29.00

33.80

-14.20%

34.40

28.00

2,185

69,949

37.00

22.90

52 High

52 Low

299.80

204.00

Weekly Top Performers
Company
JKH
DIALOG

Current
222.00

Previous

WoW %

High

229.40

-3.23%

230.00

Low

Volume

Turnover

221.20

8,589,631

1,920,450,788

9.20

9.40

-2.13%

9.40

9.00

33,940,913

312,253,017

9.90

7.90

HNB

156.00

156.10

-0.06%

159.00

156.00

1,481,480

232,553,781

176.00

140.00

DISTILLERIES

215.00

212.40

1.22%

218.00

211.00

807,788

174,111,967

218.00

160.00

1.80

1.80

0.00%

1.90

1.70

77,765,487

142,830,661

2.80

1.50

Volume

Turnover

ASIA ASSET

Weekly Top Volume
Company

Current

Previous

WoW %

High

Low

52 High

52 Low

ASIA ASSET

1.80

1.80

0.00%

1.90

1.70

77,765,487

142,830,661

2.80

1.50

DIALOG

9.20

9.40

-2.13%

9.40

9.00

33,940,913

312,253,017

9.90

7.90

VIDULLANKA

3.60

3.50

2.86%

3.60

3.50

9,744,814

34,131,028

4.00

3.40

ORIENT GARMENTS

8.80

8.10

8.64%

9.50

8.40

8,710,353

74,147,032

11.50

5.20

222.00

229.40

-3.23%

230.00

221.20

8,589,631

1,920,450,788

299.80

204.00

JKH

Page | 3

S & P SL20 Debrief

Announcements
DIVIDENDS

Daily Index Movement

Company

3,500
3,450
3,400
3,350
3,300

Dividend (LKR)

XD Date

NDB Capital Holdings PLC

8.50

21-02-2014

04-03-2014

HNB Assurance PLC

3.25

28-03-2014

07-04-2014

AIA Insurance Lanka PLC

2.00

28-03-2014

07-04-2014

Ceylon Tobacco Company PLC

8.55

03-04-2014

11-04-2014

Overseas Realty (Ceylon) PLC

0.45

25-04-2014

06-05-2014

Overseas Realty (Ceylon) PLC

3,250
3,200

1.00

25-04-2014

06-05-2014

0-Jan-1900

0.00

00-01-1900

00-01-1900

0-Jan-1900

0.00

00-01-1900

00-01-1900

RIGHTS ISSUE
Company
S&P SL20

S&P SL20 Companies
JOHN KEELLS HOLDINGS
COMMERCIAL BANK
THE BUKIT DARAH
HATTON NATIONAL BANK
CARSONS CUMBERBATCH
SAMPATH BANK
CEYLON TOBACCO COMPANY
DFCC BANK
AITKEN SPENCE
NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT BANK
C T HOLDINGS
DISTILLERIES
HAYLEYS
CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA
DIALOG AXIATA
CARGILLS (CEYLON)
LANKA ORIX LEASING COMPANY
NESTLE LANKA
ASIAN HOTELS & PROPERTIES
LION BREWERY CEYLON

Payment

Current
222.00
118.00
600.30
156.00
350.00
167.00
1,250.00
145.90
102.60
182.70
142.00
215.00
295.00
280.10
9.20
147.00
75.00
2,100.00
62.00
385.00

Previous
229.40
120.10
610.00
156.10
346.70
169.70
1,252.40
149.70
101.20
184.50
141.00
212.40
298.00
288.40
9.40
149.00
75.00
2,100.00
64.50
394.80

WoW %
-3.23%
-1.75%
-1.59%
-0.06%
0.95%
-1.59%
-0.19%
-2.54%
1.38%
-0.98%
0.71%
1.22%
-1.01%
-2.88%
-2.13%
-1.34%
0.00%
0.00%
-3.88%
-2.48%

Turnover
1,920,450,788
133,242,383
547,781
232,553,781
4,859,229
41,795,290
35,302,557
6,441,031
10,258,509
17,380,674
6,011,500
174,111,967
313,358
18,295,834
312,253,017
285,323
4,378,060
12,312,537
6,813,436
2,073,806

Proportion

XR Date

Renunciation

Pelawatte Sugar

1 for 4 @ LKR18.0

To Be Notified

To Be Notified

Arpico Finance

2 for 3 @ LKR50.0

To Be Notified

To Be Notified

###

0

0

0

###

0

0

0

###

0

0

0

Proportion

EGM Date

XD Date

0-Jan-1900

0-Jan-1900

0-Jan-1900

0-Jan-1900

0-Jan-1900

0-Jan-1900

0-Jan-1900

0-Jan-1900

0-Jan-1900

0-Jan-1900

0-Jan-1900

0-Jan-1900

SCRIP DIVIDEND
Company

CAPITALIZATION OF RESERVES
Company

Proportion

EGM Date

XC Date

0-Jan-1900

0-Jan-1900

0-Jan-1900

0-Jan-1900

0-Jan-1900

0-Jan-1900

0-Jan-1900

0-Jan-1900

0-Jan-1900

0-Jan-1900

0-Jan-1900

0-Jan-1900

SUBDIVISION OF SHARES
Company

Proportion

EGM Date

Trading Date

0-Jan-1900

0-Jan-1900

0-Jan-1900

0-Jan-1900

0-Jan-1900

0-Jan-1900

0-Jan-1900

0-Jan-1900

Proportion

EGM Date

Trading Date

0
0

0
0

0
0

CONSOLIDATION OF SHARES
Company
0-Jan-1900
0-Jan-1900

Page | 4

Local Economy
CURRENCY MOVES

LKR
131

USD : LKR

131

LKR
182
180

131

178

131

176

131
130

174

130

172

LKR
1.32

EURO : LKR

Japanese Yen : LKR

LKR
106

1.30

105

1.28

104

1.26

103

1.24

102

1.22

101

1.20

100

Singapore Dollar : LKR

LKR
220
218
216
214
212
210
208
206

LKR
2.16
2.14
2.12
2.10
2.08
2.06
2.04
2.02

GBP : LKR

Indian Rupee : LKR

Page | 5

Local Economy
BALANCE OF TRADE

TOURISM

Balance of Trade
2,000
1,600
1,200
800
400
0
-400
-800
-1,200

Tourist Arrivals

180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
Jan

Exports

Imports

Dec-13

Exports
Imports
Balance of Trade

Nov-13
1,032
1,648
-616

MoM %
-4%
-6%
8%

Dec-12
871
1,512
-641

Apr

May

Jun

2011

Jul

Aug

2012

Sep

Oct

Dec

Dec-13
2013
153,918
1,274,593

Dec-13
YTD

Nov

2013

For the Month Ending:

YoY %
13%
3%
12%

INFLATION & INTEREST RATE

2012 Change %
122,252
26%
1,005,605
27%

COLOMBO TEA AUCTION STATISTICS

Inflation and Treasury Bill Rate

14%

Mar

2010

For the Month Ending:
Dec-13
986
1,551
-565

Feb

Balance of Trade

Elevation

12%
10%

High Grown
Mid Grown
Low Grown
Total

8%
6%
4%

Sale of
05-Feb-14
442.57
421.75
519.07
486.82

Sale of
29-Jan-14
453.25
445.61
531.63
502.35

WoW %
-2.36%
-5.35%
-2.36%
-3.09%

Corres. 2013
417.47
378.39
436.98
424.62

WoW %
-6.56%
5.94%

Sale of
07-Jan-14
340.00
411.50

YoY %
6.01%
11.46%
18.79%
14.65%

2%
Jan-13

Mar-13

1-Yr T-Bill

May-13

Point to Point

Jul-13

Sep-13

For the Month Ending:
Point to Point
Annual Average Change
1-Yr T-Bill

Nov-13

Annual Average Change

Jan-14

COLOMBO RUBBER AUCTION STATISTICS

Jan-2014
Dec-13
4.7%
6.9%
8.29%

Jan-14
4.4%
6.5%
7.15%

Basis Points
30
40
114

Elevation
RSS 1
Brown Crepe 1X

Sale of
07-Feb-14
285.00
330.00

Sale of
30-Jan-14
305.00
311.50

WoW %
-16.18%
-19.81%

Page | 6

Global Markets
EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK

Index
17,000

Dow Jones Industrial Average

16,500

Index
1,900

S&P 500 Index

Index
3,200

1,850

3,100

1,800

3,000

15,000

1,750

2,900

14,500

1,700

2,800

16,000
15,500

Index
6,900
6,800
6,700
6,600
6,500
6,400
6,300
6,200

FTSE 100 Index

Index
17,000
15,000
13,000

11,000
9,000
7,000

Nikkei 225

Index
25,000
24,000
23,000
22,000
21,000
20,000
19,000

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR

Hong Kong Hang Seng Index

Page | 7

Global Markets
GLOBAL COMMODITY TREND

USD/bbl
102
100
98
96
94
92
90
88

WTI CRUDE FUTURE

USd/lb.
90

COTTON NO.2 FUTURE

USD/t oz.
1,300

GOLD 100 OZ FUTURE

USd/lb.
350
340

1,250

330

1,200

320

1,150

310

1,100

300

USd/bu.
800

85

600

80

400

75

200

70

0

COPPER FUTURE

WHEAT FUTURE(CBT)

Commodity
WTI Crude

USD/bbl

Gold
Copper

USD/t oz.
USd/lb.

Cotton
Wheat

USd/lb.
USd/bu.

This Week

Last
Week

WoW
Change

99.64

97.36

2.3%

1,288.40
324.05

1,260.10
324.10

2.2%
0.0%

88.08
588.25

86.76
583.50

1.5%
0.8%

Page | 8

We maintain CTC’s underweight rating based on its valuations reflecting its 50% price hike to
LKR1247.0 from end 2012 leading to PER of 22.7x and 20.5x on 2014E and 2015E net earnings
respectively. We expect a revenue growth CAGR of 9% through 2013-2016E backed by CTC’s
ability to pass on levy increases via price revisions amidst a 3% volume decline over the
forecast period resulting in double digit net earnings growth over 2013-2016E. Our DCF fair
value indicates LKR759/ share for 2014E. Underweight

YE 31Dec/ (LKR mn)
Net Profit
+/-% YoY
EPS (LKR)
PER (X)
PEG (X)
DPS (LKR.)
DY%
EBITDA
+/- % YoY

CTC’s 4Q2013 net earnings grew 27% YoY to LKR2.5 bn reflecting robust revenue growth of
24% YoY led by volume growth of 8% during 4Q2013 and two price revisions during April and
August 2013. Consequently gross margin improved 100 bps YoY to 21% and EBIT margin was PBV (X)
sustained at 16% amidst a 35% YoY increase in operating costs. 2013 net earnings grew 12% BVPS (LKR.)
YoY to LKR9.1 bn supported by revenue growth of 8% YoY amidst a volume dip of 6% during
2013 and 14% YoY growth in net interest income backed by its healthy cash balance of LKR8.2 bn as at 31.12.2013.

2011
6,564
28.7%
35.0

2012
8,114
23.6%
43.3

2013
9,141
12.7%
48.8

2014E
10,308
12.8%
55.0

2015E
11,376
10.4%
60.7

2016E
12,531
10.2%
66.9

35.6
123.9
35
2.8%
10,529
36%

28.8
121.9
45
3.6%
12,865
22%

25.6
202.0
49
3.9%
14,205
10%

22.7
177.6
55.0
4.4%
16,420
15.6%

20.5
198.1
60.7
4.9%
18,110
10.3%

18.6
183.6
66.9
5.4%
19,933
10.1%

65
19.1

62
20.3

54
23.0

54
23.0

54
23.0

54
23.0

Cigarette volumes during 4Q2013 grew 8% YoY reducing overall volume dip to 6%. CTC recorded robust revenue growth of 24% YoY backed by volume growth of 8%
during the quarter reducing the overall volume dip to 6% (approximately 4.0 bn sticks for 2013). Dunhill range volume grew 13% YoY during 2013 denoting c.77 mn
sticks fuelled by the Dunhill Switch brand which accounted for 61% of Dunhill Volumes cf. 48% during 2012 (Appendix 3). However JPGL brand volumes which accounts
for c.80% of CTC’s sales dipped 6% during 2013. Export revenue indicated a 22% YoY growth to LKR156 mn. EBIT margin was sustained at 16% amidst gross margin
growth of 100 bps YoY to 21% backed by two price increases during April and August 2013 despite an increase in government levies of 23% YoY and 35% YoY increase in
operating costs. Net interest income during 4Q2013 denoted a 25% dip at LKR153 mn as a result of lower interest rates. As a result 4Q2013 net earnings grew 27% YoY
to LKR2.5 bn while full year earnings grew 12% YoY to LKR9.1 bn reflecting steady revenue growth of 8% YoY and net interest income growth of 14% YoY to LKR735 mn
backed by its healthy cash balance of LKR8.2 bn as at 31st December 2013.
Double digit earnings growth through 2013-2016E backed by robust revenue growth: We expect CTC’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 9% over 2013-2016E supported
by its ability to pass on government levy increases via price revisions (Appendix 2) amidst a declining trend in stick volumes of 3% through 2013-2016E vs. CAGR of 2%
decline recorded over 2010-2013 (Appendix 1). We expect CTC’s strategy of continuously driving premium brands growth to support steady earnings over 2013-2016E.
We maintain CTC’s rating at underweight– We expect 2014E net earnings to grow 12.8% YoY to LKR10.3 bn and 2015E net earnings to grow by 10.4% YoY to LKR11.3
bn backed by steady revenue growth through price revisions amidst moderately declining trend in volumes of 3% over 2013-2016E. CTC currently trades at 22.7x and
20.5x on 2014E and 2015E net earnings respectively reflecting its price appreciation of 50% since end 2012. Dividend payout is maintained at 100% denoting DY% of
4.4% and 4.9% for 2014E and 2015E. Our DCF fair value indicates LKR759/ share for 2014E (Appendix 4).
Softlogic Equity Research

Page | 9

Name

Y/E

Rec

Mkt Price Book Val.

Share

Market

13-Feb-14

Cap.

Cap.

Mar'12

Mar'13

Mar'14E

Mar'15E

4Q

Mar'12

Mar'13

Mar'14E Mar'15E

('Mn)

('Mn)

Dec'11

Dec'12

Dec'13E

Dec'14E

Trailing

Dec'11

Dec'12

Dec'13E Dec'14E Trailing

3,437

3,829

3,084

25.51

29.00

2,087

57.08

73.94

('Mn)

NAVPS

Earnings

P / BV

EPS

EPS Growth (%)
4Q

PER

DPS

Mar'12

Mar'13 Mar'14E Mar'14E

Mar'12

Mar'13

Mar'14E Mar'15E

Dec'11

Dec'12 Dec'13E Dec'13E

Dec'11

Dec'12

Dec'13E Dec'14E Trailing

4Q

Mar'13
Dec'12

Trailing

ROE

DY (%)

(%)

Banking, Finance & Insurance
Centra l Fi na nce

CFIN.N0000

M

Ceyl i nco Ins ura nce

CINS.N0000

D

Commerci a l Ba nk

COMB.N0000 D

Commerci a l Ba nk [X]

COMB.X0000

DFCC Ba nk

Buy

191.00

18,283

104.9

20,033 174.32

1.10

2,675

3,041

1,346.30

14,364

26.4

35,562 543.79

2.48

1,508

1,953

32.77

Buy

120.10

58,257

849.2

101,985

68.61

1.75

8,048

10,080

10,685

12,591

9,676

9.48

11.87

12.58

D

Buy

96.60

58,257

849.2

82,029

68.61

1.41

8,048

10,080

10,685

12,591

9,676

9.48

11.87

DFCC.N0000

M

MTB

149.70

37,196

265.1

39,685 140.31

1.07

2,900

3,523

3,453

3,915

3,210

10.94

Ha tton Na ti ona l Ba nk

HNB.N0000

D

Buy

156.10

55,738

399.7

62,391 139.46

1.12

6,149

8,111

9,258

11,113

8,931

Ha tton Na ti ona l Ba nk [X]

Buy

125.80

55,738

399.7

50,280 139.46

0.90

6,149

8,111

9,258

10,908

75.00

21,220

475.2

35,640

44.65

1.68

2,933

1,863

6,940

82.40

1.22

1,714

1,703

2,114

36.51

29.41

46

14

79.01

57

30

7.5

6.6

23.6

18.2

14.83

11.39

46

25

6

18

12.7

10.1

9.5

12.58

14.83

11.39

46

25

6

18

10.2

8.1

13.29

13.02

14.77

12.11

(43)

21

(2)

13

13.7

15.38

20.29

23.16

27.81

22.34

28

32

14

20

10.1

8,931

15.38

20.29

23.16

27.81

22.34

1,816

6.17

3.92

3.82

28

32

14

20

(24)

(36)

2,494

1,265

24.75

24.58

30.52

36.01

18.27

68

(1)

24

HNB.X0000

D

La nka Ori x Lea s i ng Compa ny LOLC.N0000

M

LB Fi na nce

LFIN.N0000

M

Buy

100.20

5,707

69.3

Na ti ona l Devel opment Ba nk NDB.N0000

D

Buy

184.50

24,757

164.7

30,386 150.32

1.23

2,706

8,854

3,533

4,286

9,030

16.43

53.76

21.45

26.03

54.83

26

227

Na ti ons Trus t Ba nk

NTB.N0000

D

Buy

66.50

11,207

230.6

15,335

48.60

1.37

1,534

1,951

2,211

2,625

2,052

6.65

8.46

9.59

11.38

8.90

41

Pa n As i a Ba nk

PABC.N0000

D

Buy

16.80

4,128

295.0

4,957

13.99

1.20

824

811

325

633

450

2.79

2.75

1.10

2.14

1.53

Peopl e's Lea s i ng

PLC.N0000

M

Buy

15.10

18,572

1,579.9

23,856

11.76

1.28

4,542

3,073

3,015

3,590

3,311

2.87

1.95

1.91

2.27

Sa mpa th Ba nk

SAMP.N0000

D

Buy

169.70

28,856

167.8

28,476 171.96

0.99

4,151

5,212

4,074

6,241

3,881

24.74

31.06

24.28

37.19

Seyl a n Ba nk

SEYB.N0000

D

64.00

20,799

345.0

22,077

60.29

1.06

1,006

2,063

1,988

2.92

5.98

La nka Ori x Fi na nce

LOFC.N0000

M

3.60

5,931

2,800.0

10,080

2.12

1.70

1,246

686

617

0.44

0.25

325,015

7,772.7

437,402

41.82

1.35

41,935

52,924

70,004

5.40

6.81

Sample Sector (16)
Full Sector (61)

576,010

898

1,026

0.32

0.37

13

11

5.8

6.5

2.1

1.1

14.6

17.0

12.5

0.9

10.5

8.1

10.5

4.5

3.7

13.8

7.7

6.5

8.5

4.5

4.7

13.8

11.3

11.5

10.1

12.4

5.0

3.3

7.8

7.7

6.7

5.6

7.0

8.5

5.4

11.0

5.4

4.5

8.2

6.2

12.2

19.1

18

4.0

4.1

3.3

(60)

21

11.2

3.4

27

13

19

10.0

128

(2)

(60)

95

2.10

74

(32)

(2)

23.13

19

26

(22)

5.76

(17)

105

0.22

(0)

(45)

9.01

19

26

31

5.2

5.6

8.5

6.8

11.0

19.6

0.5

0.7

13.8

2.8

5.5

6.5

6.5

30.0

8.6

7.1

3.4

15.0

8.1

10.9

7.9

6.9

5.8

7.5

2.1

3.2

13.7

6.0

6.1

15.3

7.8

11.0

1.0

6.0

20.0

19

5.3

7.8

7.9

6.6

7.2

1.3

8.3

24.5

53

6.9

5.5

7.0

4.6

7.3

6.0

3.5

14.4

22.0

10.7

11.1

1.0

1.6

4.8

8.1

14.7

16.3

-

-

21.0

10.4

8.3

14

11.2

9.8

6.2

1.45

12.9

8.9

Beverage, Food and Tobacco
Ca rgi l l s

CARG.N0000

M

149.00

11,755

224.0

33,376

Ceyl on Toba cco Compa ny

CTC.N0000

D

1,252.40

4,565

187.3

234,604

Di s ti l l eri es

DIST.N0000

M

212.40

49,925

300.0

63,720 166.42

Li on Brewery

LION.N0000

M

394.80

6,136

80.0

31,584

Nes tl e (La nka )

NEST.N0000

D

2,100.00

3,475

53.7

75,856

845.0

LTB

Sample Sector (5)
Full Sector (20)

52.48

2.84

1,079

578

422

4.82

2.58

1.88

(1)

(46)

30.9

57.8

24.37 51.39

6,569

8,176

9,141

10,308

8,603

35.07

43.65

48.80

55.03

45.93

29

24

12

13

35.7

28.7

25.7

1.28

5,675

5,520

5,816

6,452

5,577

18.92

18.40

19.39

21.51

18.59

(30)

(3)

5

11

11.2

11.5

5.15

1,262

1,046

1,107

1,457

965

15.78

13.07

13.83

18.22

12.06

25

(17)

6

32

25.0

30.2

112,823

64.68 32.47

2,633

2,994

3,513

3,822

3,557

49.01

55.73

65.39

71.14

66.20

39

14

17

9

42.8

37.7

476,108

89.77

17,219

18,313

19,123

20.38

21.67

22.63

0

6

27.7

26.0

76.71

535,517

6.28

79.2

2.0

1.3

9.2

22.8

27.3

48.8

3.9

143.9

11.0

9.9

11.4

3.0

1.4

11.4

28.5

21.7

32.7

4.0

1.0

20.6

32.1

29.5

31.7

54.0

2.6

75.8

24.9

4.51

22.7

22.4

Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals
CIC Hol di ngs

CIC.N0000

M

52.00

7,577

94.8

4,928

79.95

0.65

863

231

128

9.11

2.44

1.35

(7)

(73)

5.7

21.3

38.5

1.6

3.1

11.4

La nkem Ceyl on

LCEY.N0000

M

120.00

3,154

24.0

2,880 131.41

0.91

513

297

-226

21.39

12.36

(9.43)

(55)

(42)

5.6

9.7

-12.7

1.5

1.3

16.3

10,730

118.8

7,808

0.73

1,376

528

-99

11.59

4.44

(0.83)

(33)

(62)

5.7

14.8

-79.2

Sample Sector (2)
Full Sector (10)

90.35

17,741

0.91

12.8

20.1

Construction & Engineering
Col ombo Dockya rd

DOCK.N0000

D

187.10

Sample Sector (1)

10,477

71.9

13,445 145.80

1.28

1,804

1,977

1,079

25.10

27.51

15.01

(13)

10

7.5

6.8

12.5

10,477

71.9

13,445 145.80

1.28

1,804

1,977

1,079

25.10

27.51

15.01

(13)

10

7.5

6.8

12.5

40,193

2.55

Full Sector (4)

8.0

4.3

17.2
17.2

9.7

Diversified Holdings
Ai tken Spence

SPEN.N0000

M

101.20

28,815

406.0

41,087

70.97

1.43

3,488

3,267

3,121

8.59

8.05

7.69

38

(6)

11.8

12.6

13.2

1.5

1.5

CT Hol di ngs

CTHR.N0000

M

141.00

16,707

183.1

25,817

91.25

1.55

1,159

1,150

1,407

6.33

6.28

7.68

34

(1)

22.3

22.5

18.4

0.7

0.5

6.9

Ca rs ons Cumberba tch

CARS.N0000

M

346.70

30,175

196.4

68,087 153.65

2.26

7,017

4,570

2,988

35.73

23.27

15.21

55

(35)

9.7

14.9

22.8

2.0

0.6

23.3

Expol a nka Hol di ngs

EXPO.N0000

M

9.30

9,466

1,954.9

18,181

Ha yl eys

HAYL.N0000

M

298.00

23,074

75.0

Hema s Hol di ngs

HHL.N0000

M

38.80

12,849

515.3

John Keel l s Hol di ngs

JKH.N0000

M

229.40

118,674

990.2

Ri cha rd Pei ri s

RICH.N0000

M

6.60

8,065

1,958.1

Softl ogi c Hol di ngs

SHL.N0000

M

Va l l i bel One

VONE.N0000

M

LTB

LTB

4.84

1.92

1,033

1,061

1,143

0.53

0.54

0.58

(33)

3

17.6

17.1

15.9

0.1

1.3

10.9

22,350 307.66

0.97

1,038

1,854

2,150

13.84

24.72

28.67

43

79

21.5

12.1

10.4

4.5

1.5

4.5

19,993

24.94

1.56

1,165

1,658

1,920

2.26

3.22

3.73

(4)

42

17.2

12.1

10.4

0.8

1.9

9.1

227,152 119.85

1.91

9,687

12,201

12,273

9.78

12.32

12.39

17

26

23.4

18.6

18.5

3.5

1.5

8.2

4.12

1.60

2,575

1,903

1,369

1.32

0.97

0.70

53

(26)

5.0

6.8

9.4

0.2

3.0

31.9

0.33

(42)

(38)

18.7

30.0

35.6

0.3

2.6

6.6

0.95

250

(31)

9.2

13.2

18.0

0.0

0.0

3.40

30

(1)

15.6

15.8

12,923

11.60

7,327

779.0

9,036

9.41

1.23

483

301

17.10

30,388

1,086.6

18,580

27.97

0.61

2,025

1,403

285,540

8,144.5

463,207

35.06

1.62

29,669

29,367

Sample Sector (10)
Full Sector (18)

494,855

1,302

11,874

10,383

2,323

254

0.62

0.39

1,033

1.86

1.29

27,658

3.64

3.61

0.67

11.99

10.49

2.14

23

(3)

(13)

66

14.0

12.1

19.1

21.9

8.0

16.7

1.53

6.7
10.4

16.7

Healthcare
As i ri Hos pi ta l Hol d.

ASIR.N0000

M

20.00

5,831

1,099.1

21,982

5.31

3.77

609

696

930

0.55

0.63

0.85

219

14

36.1

31.6

23.6

0.5

2.5

10.4

Na wa l oka Hos pi ta l s

NHL.N0000

M

3.20

3,886

1,409.5

4,510

2.76

1.16

271

454

345

0.19

0.32

0.24

(75)

68

16.7

9.9

13.1

0.1

1.6

7.0

La nka Hos pi ta l s

LHCL.N0000

D

43.60

27,164

223.7

9,755 121.41

0.36

437

384

564

1.95

1.72

2.52

51

(12)

22.3

25.4

17.3

0.5

1.1

1.6

36,880

2,732.3

0.98

1,317

1,535

1,839

0.48

0.56

0.67

(15)

17

27.5

23.6

19.7

Softlogic Equity Research
Full Sector (6)
Sample Sector (3)

36,247
51,730

13.50

2.36

1,027

1,082

0.93

0.98

47

5

21.4

20.3

20.4

3.6

Page | 10

Name

Y/E

Rec

Mkt Price Book Val.

Share

Market

13-Feb-14

Cap.

Cap.

Mar'12

Mar'13

Mar'14E

Mar'15E

4Q

Mar'12

Mar'13

Mar'14E Mar'15E

4Q

Mar'12

Mar'13

Mar'14E Mar'14E

Mar'12

Mar'13

Mar'14E Mar'15E

4Q

Mar'13

('Mn)

('Mn)

Dec'11

Dec'12

Dec'13E

Dec'14E

Trailing

Dec'11

Dec'12

Dec'13E Dec'14E

Trailing

Dec'11

Dec'12

Dec'13E Dec'13E

Dec'11

Dec'12

Dec'13E Dec'14E

Trailing

Dec'12

('Mn)

NAVPS

Earnings

P / BV

EPS

EPS Growth (%)

PER

DPS

Trailing

ROE

DY (%)

(%)

Hotels and Travels
Ai tken Sp. Ho. Hol d.

AHUN.N0000 M

71.80

13,283

336.3

24,146

39.50

1.82

1,378

1,782

2,148

1,956

4.10

5.30

6.39

5.82

33

29

21

17.5

13.5

11.2

12.3

1.0

1.4

10.4

Ama ya Lei s ure

CONN.N0000

M

70.90

2,700

48.0

3,406

56.22

1.26

293

377

376

369

6.09

7.84

7.83

7.67

(38)

29

(0)

11.6

9.0

9.1

9.2

4.0

5.6

10.8

As i a n Hotel s & Prop.

AHPL.N0000

M

64.50

21,501

442.8

28,559

48.56

1.33

2,149

2,494

2,386

2,493

2,460

4.85

5.63

5.39

5.63

5.56

21

16

(4)

4

13.3

11.4

12.0

11.5

11.6

4.0

6.2

10.0

Keel l s Hotel s

KHL.N0000

M

12.70

17,135

1,456.1

18,493

11.77

1.08

1,105

1,121

1,229

1,384

1,340

0.76

0.77

0.84

0.95

0.92

111

1

10

13

16.7

16.5

15.0

13.4

13.8

0.0

0.0

6.5

Ta j

TAJ.N0000

M

31.20

2,051

139.6

4,357

14.69

2.12

125

246

293

-165

0.89

1.76

2.10

(1.18)

26

97

19

34.9

17.7

14.9

-26.4

0.0

0.0

6.1

Tra ns As i a

TRAN.N0000

M

77.20

5,899

200.0

15,440

29.50

2.62

625

1,066

884

986

3.12

5.33

4.42

4.93

(5)

71

(17)

24.7

14.5

17.5

15.7

3.0

3.9

10.6

62,571

2,622.9

94,400

23.86

1.51

5,674

7,086

7,316

5,945

2.16

2.70

2.79

2.27

24

25

3

16.6

13.3

12.9

Sample Sector (6)
Full Sector (36)

312,214

927

4.64

5

16.7

15.9

2.63

9.1

34.3

Land and Property
Col ombo La nd

CLND.N0000

D

37.40

2,702

199.9

7,476

13.52

2.77

10

335

-90

12

72

0.05

1.68

(0.45)

0.06

0.36

(98)

3,393

(127)

113

779.4

22.3

N/A

623.0

104.4

0.0

0.0

0.4

Overs ea s Rea l i ty

OSEA.N0000

D

20.40

23,360

843.5

17,207

27.69

0.74

2,681

2,469

1,924

2,158

3,848

3.18

2.93

2.28

2.56

4.56

218

(8)

(22)

12

6.4

7.0

8.9

8.0

4.5

0.5

2.2

11.5

26,062

1,043.4

24,683

24.98

0.95

2,691

2,804

1,834

2,170

3,919

2.58

2.69

1.76

2.08

3.76

102

4

(35)

18

9.2

8.8

13.5

11.4

6.3

1.5

10.3

Sample Sector (2)
Full Sector (18)

40,625

0.85

7.3

Manufacturing
ACL Ca bl es

ACL.N0000

M

68.00

5,848

59.9

4,073

97.63

0.70

485

532

534

8.10

8.88

8.91

127

10

Gra i n El eva tors

GRAN.N0000

D

35.80

2,794

60.0

2,148

46.56

0.77

388

135

87

93

-94

6.46

2.24

1.45

1.55

(1.56)

(18)

(65)

(35)

Chevron Lubri ca nts

LLUB.N0000

D

Hold

288.40

5,348

120.0

34,608

La nka Wa l l ti l e

LWL.N0000

M

LTB

67.80

5,535

54.6

Pi ra ma l Gl a s s

GLAS.N0000

M

Hold

4.40

3,490

Roya l Cera mi c

RCL.N0000

M

LTB

85.90

Textured Jers ey

TJL.N0000

M

Buy

Tokyo Cement

TKYO.N0000

M

Buy

8.4

7.7

7.6

1.0

1.5

8.3

7

5.5

16.0

24.7

23.1

-23.0

0.1

0.4

13.9

44.56

6.47

2,001

2,288

2,562

2,701

2,513

16.67

19.06

21.35

22.51

20.94

33

14

12

5

17.3

15.1

13.5

12.8

13.8

15.0

5.2

37.4

3,702 101.38

0.67

731

520

545

600

576

13.39

9.52

9.98

10.99

10.55

51

(29)

5

10

5.1

7.1

6.8

6.2

6.4

3.0

4.4

13.2

950.1

4,180

3.67

1.20

686

724

361

532

885

0.72

0.76

0.38

0.56

0.93

19

5

(50)

47

6.1

5.8

11.6

7.9

4.7

0.4

8.6

19.7

8,479

110.8

9,517

76.53

1.12

1,243

1,670

1,844

2,190

1,103

11.22

15.07

16.64

19.77

9.96

(14)

34

10

19

7.7

5.7

5.2

4.3

8.6

2.0

2.3

14.7

15.50

6,315

655.0

10,153

9.64

1.61

628

1,017

1,186

1,495

1,128

0.96

1.55

1.81

2.28

1.72

(8)

62

17

26

16.2

10.0

8.6

6.8

9.0

1.2

8.0

9.9

34.00

7,793

334.1

11,360

23.32

1.46

979

893

1,968

1,511

1,883

2.93

2.67

5.89

4.52

5.63

14

(9)

120

(23)

11.6

12.7

5.8

7.5

6.0

1.0

2.9

12.6

45,600

2,344.5

79,741

19.45

1.75

7,141

7,778

8,527

3.05

3.32

3.64

15

9

11.2

10.3

4.7

15.7

Sample Sector (8)
Full Sector (36)

116,393

9.4

1.46

9.5

Motors
C M Hol di ngs

COLO.N0000

M

83.20

3,315

15.2

1,265 218.11

0.38

453

120

Di es el & Motor Engi neeri ng

DIMO.N0000

M

523.00

7,729

8.9

4,642 870.76

0.60

2,702

462

Uni ted Motors

UML.N0000

M

127.00

7,895

67.3

8,543 117.37

1.08

2,281

2,013

1,808

18,940

91.3

14,450 207.34

0.76

5,436

2,595

1,777

22,010

0.95

Sample Sector (3)
Full Sector (6)

-210

29.80

7.91

(13.80)

95

(73)

2.8

10.5

-6.0

3.0

3.6

13.7

179 304.36

52.06

20.19

27

(83)

1.7

10.0

25.9

10.0

1.9

35.0

33.91

29.92

26.88

153

(12)

3.7

4.2

4.7

10.0

7.9

28.9

59.51

28.41

19.46

67

(52)

2.7

5.6

8.1

5.6

28.7

10.2

Oil Palms
Buki t Da ra h

BUKI.N0000

M

610.00

Sample Sector (1)

27,684

102.0

62,220 271.41

2.25

7,299

5,042

2,649

71.56

49.43

25.97

43

(31)

8.5

12.3

23.5

3.0

0.5

26.4

27,684

102.0

62,220 271.41

2.25

7,299

5,042

2,649

71.56

49.43

25.97

43

(31)

8.5

12.3

23.5

3.0

0.5

26.4

93,843

1.82

Full Sector (5)

27.2

Plantations
Ba l a ngoda

BALA.N0000

D

29.70

2,701

23.6

702 114.26

0.26

25

118

87

1.08

5.01

3.70

(85)

366

27.6

5.9

8.0

1.0

Hora na

HOPL.N0000

M

23.90

1,498

25.0

598

59.91

0.40

87

220

132

3.49

8.82

5.28

(73)

152

6.8

2.7

4.5

2.0

Kega l l e

KGAL.N0000

M

101.00

3,264

25.0

2,525 130.55

0.77

769

544

479

30.77

21.74

19.15

(8)

(29)

3.3

4.6

5.3

12.0

11.9

23.6

Kel a ni Va l l ey

KVAL.N0000

D

78.00

2,558

34.0

2,652

75.23

1.04

460

584

391

13.54

17.19

11.51

44

27

5.8

4.5

6.8

6.0

7.7

18.0

Kota ga l a

KOTA.N0000

M

36.70

3,187

40.0

1,468

79.67

0.46

439

517

-173

10.97

12.92

(4.32)

(34)

18

3.3

2.8

-8.5

2.5

6.8

13.8

Wa ta wa l a

WATA.N0000 M

10.10

4,095

236.7

2,390

17.30

0.58

455

680

436

1.92

2.87

1.84

(29)

49

5.3

3.5

5.5

0.5

17,302

384.3

10,335

45.02

0.60

2,236

2,664

1,352

5.82

6.93

3.52

(24)

19

4.6

3.9

7.6

Sample Sector (6)
Full Sector (19)

24,131

0.66

0.9
5.8

11.1
12.9

7.5

Power and Energy
La nka IOC

LIOC.N0000

M

38.90

16,586

532.5

20,715

31.15

1.25

906

2,911

4,899

1.70

5.47

9.20

3

221

22.9

7.1

4.2

1.0

Va l l i bel

VPEL.N0000

M

5.90

1,994

747.1

4,408

2.67

2.21

249

289

641

0.33

0.39

0.86

(41)

16

17.7

15.2

6.9

0.6

10.2

12.5

La ugfs Ga s

LGL.N0000

M

32.80

7,161

387.0

12,694

18.50

1.77

822

1,061

1,634

2.13

2.74

4.22

(4)

29

15.4

12.0

7.8

1.5

4.6

11.5

25,741

1,666.6

37,817

15.44

1.47

1,977

4,261

7,174

1.19

2.56

4.30

(8)

116

19.1

8.9

Sample Sector (3)
Full Sector (8)

42,945

1,414

1,453

3.65

3.75

33

3

9.0

8.7

5.5

5.3

1.33

7.7

5.4

Telecommunications
Di a l og Axi a ta

DIAL.N0000

D

9.40

38,620

8,143.8

76,552

4.74

1.98

5,354

6,521

5,016

0.66

0.80

0.62

6

22

14.3

11.7

15.3

0.3

3.5

Sri La nka Tel ecom

SLTL.N0000

D

38.10

56,871

1,804.9

68,765

31.51

1.21

4,781

5,329

4,774

2.65

2.95

2.65

21

11

14.4

12.9

14.4

0.9

2.2

95,491

9,948.6

145,317

9.60

1.52

10,135

11,850

9,790

1.02

1.19

0.98

13

17

14.3

12.3

14.8

Sample Sector (2)
Full Sector (2)

145,317

0.00

1.52

13.9
8.4
10.6

14.8

Trading
Browns

BRWN.N0000 M

90.40

14,064

70.9

3.39

(79)

5.5

26.7

11.0

0.5

0.6

8.3

4,875

125.2

11,294

38.94

2.32

661

10.11

9.09

8.21
5.28

(47)

90.20

240
1,138

16.43

SINS.N0000

1,164
1,266

582

Si nger Sri La nka

90

(10)

8.9

9.9

17.1

6.0

6.7

26.0

18,939

196.1

17,701

96.59

0.93

2,431

1,378

1,242

12.40

7.03

6.34

(15)

(43)

7.3

12.8

14.2

D

Sample Sector (2)
Full Sector (8)
Sample Market (70)
Total Market (285)

Softlogic Equity Research

6,407 198.43

22,601
1,082,829 38,085.0 1,920,879
2,593,524

0.46

0.99
28.43

1.77
1.77

12.8

17.1
138,340 150,101 162,109 183,183 161,980

3.63

3.94

4.26

4.81

4.25

17

9

8

13

13.9

12.8

11.8

10.5

11.9

12.8

14.1

Page | 11

Softlogic Equity Research

Softlogic Equity Sales

Dimantha Mathew
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Dihan Dedigama
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+94 11 7277058, +94 77 7885778

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Madushanka Rathnayaka
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No. 121, St. Joseph Street Negombo
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+94 31 2224714-5, +94 77 3569827

Bandula Lansakara
No.13, Rajapihilla Mawatha, Kurunegala
bandula.lansakara@equity.softlogic.lk
+94 37 2232875, +94 77 3615790

madushanka.rathnayaka@equity.softlogic.lk

+94 34 7451000, +94 77 3566465

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