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Year

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

Demand MA-3
MA-5
10
18
29
15
19
30
21
12
25
16
19
8
19
22
12
14
15
15
15
27
17
30
19
24

35
30

20
21
20
16
18
14
15
17
22

25
20
15
10
5
0
1

2

3

4

5

6

Note
Smoothing of the demand
Difference in MA3 and MA5

Demand MA-3 MA-5 5 6 of the demand in MA3 and MA5 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 .

8 23 29.7 15.8 W1 W2 W3 19 21 25 19 19 12 15 15 17 19 24 27 23 0 0.9 30 16.8 14 20.9 1 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1 2 3 4 .7 15 23.Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Demand WMA3 MA3 10 18 29 15 27.1 0.9 30 25.8 27 14.8 8 15.4 12 28.5 16 13.6 15 14.6 22 8.

Demand WMA3 MA3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 .

36 42.23 45 42.15 45 10% Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 49 Alpha 43 41 39 37 35 1 2 3 4 5 .36 43.92 41.44 46 41.00 42.71 38 42.80 41.73 41.73 41.00 43 41.66 41.92 42.07 42.66 41.85 43.39 40.07 42.24 40 41.15 39 41.85 41.28 41 41.73 41.80 41.00 42.62 41.92 40.73 41.20 40 41.39 41.Alpha 40% 47 Demand ES1 ES1 ES2 42 40 42.59 44 41.92 41.

Demand ES1 ES2 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 .

9273 729.4182 721.9818 774.4 790 Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 y=a+bt Equation Demand 700 724 720 728 740 742 758 750 770 775 Linear1 706.4182 721.9455 744.4727 766.n b a 10 7.4364 736.9818 774.4545 751.9273 729.4364 736.4909 782 770 760 750 740 730 720 710 700 690 1 2 3 4 5 6 .4545 751.4727 766.509091 699.9091 714.9455 744.9636 759.9636 759.9091 714.4909 782 780 Linear2 706.

Demand Linear1 7 8 9 10 11 .

09 750 9.07 768.61 770 760 750 740 730 720 710 700 690 1 2 .33 742 9.67 775.26 755.33 738.56 783.49 769.65 745.33 740 9.93 776.45 775 7.Alpha Beta 40% 30% 780 Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Demand Change T S TAF 700 724 24 720 -4 728 8 9.44 747.73 758 8.13 765.40 737.31 759.97 756.22 770 7.

Demand TAF 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 .

375 1.80 1.31 0.71 36 48.21 88 58 DD 0.5 55.82 84 71 69.21 38.49 .Period Year Quarter 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 1 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Demand MA4 MA2 Demand/MA2 14 18 28.17 1.80 35.72 0.43 22.00 1.25 34.31 0.86 45.72 0.5 39.72 0.17 1.35 28 42.34 62.80 1.625 0.5 0.75 45.29 45 63.45 67.80 1.00 1.625 0.375 0.17 46 36.74 54 67.31 0.64 71.09 54.25 35 31.25 1.09 51.52 67.35 80.5 60.75 30.55 29.875 1.18 71 57.17 1.75 65.79 60 53 50.72 120 100 80 Demand DD 60 Trend 40 Forecasts 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 19.

96 58.23 24.08 44.57 28.45 1.038 .727 0.76 Quarter 1 2 3 4 1.55 70.80 1.56 2.92 63.77 Forecasts 13.186 1.46 51.86 19.81 78.12 39.72 0.00 53.16 57.64 Total Avg for Quarter Seasonal Relative 0.88 68.61 3.51 42.04 49.19 29.00 80.86 96.806 0.17 1.31 4.24 44.16 35.319 1.31 34.15 34.85 73.44 56.Trend 19.

7692 Forecasts 11.3154 23.8846 84 68.05208 48.48665 32.13618 104.1538 46 34.1923 35 29.59413 76.66521 85.8462 88 73.529 47.05022 36.0385 60 49.0000 71 53.1154 28 39.34316 Quarter 1 2 3 4 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1 .8077 58 78.2308 18 24.41491 47.55839 18.0769 36 44.42221 35.85771 60.Period Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Quarter 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 Demand Trend 14 19.9231 54 63.9615 45 58.

33 1.41623 48.74611 59.00 0.67 1.23661 68.Year 1 Year 2 14 18 35 46 Year 3 28 36 60 71 45 54 84 88 Seasonal Average SA Index Year 4 29.00 0.25 Demand Trend Forecasts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 .60104 58 36.

i y 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 x 3 3.2 3.5 4.1 4.8 3 3.6 3.4 2.4 5 5.7 6.4 7 2 2.8 4 y = demand for newspapers in thousands x = population in tens of thousands of people .

46% 4 16 1.46% 4 16 1.92% 3 9 1.90% 2 4 0.94% 5 25 2.28% |Error| Error^2 |Error|/Actual % 2 4 0.89% .MAD Period Actual 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 217 213 216 210 213 219 216 212 Forecast Error 215 216 215 214 211 214 217 216 2 -3 1 -4 2 5 -1 -4 MSE MAPE 2.75 10.86 1.41% 1 1 0.28% 1 1 0.

62 -3.65 5.64 5.66 .32 4.49 6.07 1.03 -3.11 6.35 -0.09 6.65 0.66 -2.45 -2.99 7.Month A 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 F 47 51 54 55 49 46 38 32 25 24 30 35 44 57 60 55 51 48 42 30 28 25 35 38 e 43 44 50 51 54 48 46 44 35 26 25 32 34 50 51 54 55 51 50 43 38 27 27 32 e^2 4 7 4 4 -5 -2 -8 -12 -10 -2 5 3 10 7 9 1 -4 -3 -8 -13 -10 -2 8 6 |e| 16 49 16 16 25 4 64 144 100 4 25 9 100 49 81 1 16 9 64 169 100 4 64 36 Cumulative e 4 7 4 4 5 2 8 12 10 2 5 3 10 7 9 1 4 3 8 13 10 2 8 6 SMAD 4 11 15 19 14 12 4 -8 -18 -20 -15 -12 -2 5 14 15 11 8 0 -13 -23 -25 -17 -11 TS 5.86 -2.00 -1.05 2.78 6.82 5.27 6.47 6.65 2.80 2.33 0.86 -3.86 5.51 -1.59 6.

36 13.36 13.27 -14.36 13.46 -0.46 -0.36 13.27 -14.36 13.27 -14.65 4 5.46 -0.46 -0.27 -14.27 -14.27 -14.8 -0.46 -0.91 2 TS Status Alpha Min Max Limit MAD Mean e MSE s No of s 15 10 5 0 1 -5 -10 -15 2 3 4 .36 13.36 13.27 -14.UCL CL 13.27 -14.36 13.36 13.36 13.27 -14.36 13.36 LCL -0.46 -0.46 -0.27 -14.27 0.27 -14.36 13.46 -0.36 13.46 -0.27 -14.46 -0.46 OK -14.46 -0.36 13.27 -14.46 -0.36 13.36 13.36 13.36 13.71 6.46 47.27 -14.27 -14.46 -0.46 -0.46 -0.46 -0.36 13.36 13.27 -14.46 -0.27 -14.46 -0.36 13.36 13.27 -14.46 -0.27 -14.27 -14.36 13.46 -0.46 -0.46 -0.86 2.27 -14.46 -0.27 -14.2 -3.27 -14.

e UCL 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 CL LCL .