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THE TENTH NATIONAL OIL SPILL DISASTER CONTINGENCY PLAN MEETING (NOS-DCP) SEP 2007

OIL SPILLS RISK ANALYSIS: AN OVERVIEW
Manju Mohan,
Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Hauz Khas, New Delhi, India mmohan6@hotmail.com
10th NOS-DCP Meeting Prof. Manju Mohan CAS, IIT Delhi

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INTRODUCTION
• Oil Spill: Release of large amount of oil into a water body leading to disastrous environmental effects. • Oil spills can occur due to various reasons such as – Equipment breakdown in an oil tanker which causes leakage of oil into the sea – When countries are at war, one country may decide to dump gallons of oil into the other country’s oceans. – Illegal dumping of crude and waste oil into ocean – Natural disasters (like hurricanes) may cause an oil spill, too by causing an oil tanker to flip over, pouring oil out.
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Prof. Manju Mohan CAS, IIT Delhi

MAJOR OIL SPILL INCIDENTS
Year 1983 1983 1988 1989 1993 1996 2001 Place The Persian Gulf South Africa The Monongahela River Prince William Sound, Alaska Off The Shetland Islands Off SW Wales Galapagos Islands Tanker Nowruz Oil Field Castillo De Belluer Storage Tank Exxon Valdez Braer Sea Empress Jessica 2,400 37,620 85,000 72, 000 600 Prof. Manju Mohan CAS, IIT Delhi 160,000 spill (in tons) 100,000

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RISK ANALYSIS: GENERAL OVERVIEW

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Prof. Manju Mohan CAS, IIT Delhi

Manju Mohan CAS.Stages of Risk Analysis Hazard Identification Frequency Analysis Consequence Analysis Risk Calculation 10th NOS-DCP Meeting 5 Prof. IIT Delhi .

IIT Delhi .1. Structural failure: the hull cracks. Usually these events are • • • • • • • Collision: the striking together of two vessels whilst underway. Cargo transfer failure: a cargo spill occurs while conducting ship/shore or ship/ship loading or unloading. Grounding: a vessel touches the sea bottom. Fire/explosion: occurs onboard vessel but not due to above. 10th NOS-DCP Meeting 6 Prof. Diagrammatically. Manju Mohan CAS. this can be represented by a spill event tree etc. Sinking: a vessel sinks due to breach in watertight integrity or adverse loading. Contact: a vessel strikes an external object other than another vessel or sea bottom. Hazard Identification: Identification and generation of a comprehensive and representative set of events which can realistically cause a spill. either powered or drifting.

Mostly.e.2. Other sources of frequency analysis are – Data and Statistics – Expert Advice – Historical Records – Ground Truthing – Consultation – Individual Experience 10th NOS-DCP Meeting 7 Prof. Frequency Analysis i. Manju Mohan CAS. this is estimated by combination of component probabilities derived on basis of reliability data (if available) and statistical analysis of historical data. Assessment of oil release probability. IIT Delhi .

The basic approach to spill size estimation is through the use of log normal distribution assumption Prof. IIT Delhi 10th NOS-DCP Meeting 8 . Manju Mohan CAS.3. Consequence Analysis: The effects of oil spill are analysed in terms of following scenarios – – – – – – – – Environmental Ecological Habitat Fisheries Tourism Aquaculture Cultural Economic • The analysis of oil spills requires evaluation of spill size distribution.

the quantified results are displayed in terms of risk profiles viz. 10th NOS-DCP Meeting 9 Prof. Risk Calculation: Broadly risk can be represented as – Probability of occurrence and exposure expressed as a percent chance – Risk Units which quantify both the occurrence of oil spill and consequence associated with it.4. interaction with rough seas and their eventual break up followed by determination of trajectory of oil slicks and probable shoreline impact. Manju Mohan CAS. event or fault tree or Hazard Maps or Graphs depicting percent chance of exposure or Risk Units. • Quantification of spill consequences involves determination of spread and evaporation of oil slick. IIT Delhi ..

IIT Delhi . oil chemistry. Oil spill estimation is based on previous incidents 10th NOS-DCP Meeting 10 Prof. marine currents. ship structure etc are available. Manju Mohan CAS. Statistical analysis is useful in absence of requisite model inputs.Determination of Spread of Oil Spill Spill Analysis Models Statistical Analysis of Past Incidents Modeling of oil spills (trajectory simulation) is feasible if extensive information of variables such as meteorology.

Manju Mohan CAS. IIT Delhi .CASE STUDIES 10th NOS-DCP Meeting 11 Prof.

IIT Delhi . Scenarios covered: tourists. fisheries and environmental • Risk Calculations: Representation in terms of Risk Units * : Kassomenos.Crete. Manju Mohan CAS. medium and low was used to identify the probability of the threat occurring. 2003 10th NOS-DCP Meeting 12 Prof. Greece* METHODOLOGY OVERVIEW • Hazard identification: oil pollution caused by heavy marine traffic and ship wreckage • Frequency Analysis: based on available data for oil spill incidents in the area of Crete covering the period 19951999 • Consequence Analysis: a general relational rating system of high.

Sea are characterized by heavy 10th NOS-DCP Meeting 13 Prof. • Crete has about 600000 habitants.Background of the Analysis • Crete is one of the majors Mediterranean islands. located in the South Aegean Sea. IIT Delhi . • The areas of Cretan marine traffic. but more than 5 million tourists visit the island during an entire year. Manju Mohan CAS. • The frequent navigation of tankers through this area enhances the possibility of marine pollution by oilbased waste from the ships as well as from possible shipwrecks.

Rethymnon with about 30000 and Ag. Ieraklion and Sitia. prefectures of Hania. Chania with about 80000. with about 15000 habitants.• Crete consists of 4 prefectures (administrative areas). The last three cities are located in the Prefecture of Lasithi. • The capital Heraklion with about 150000 people. • The city of Ierapetra is located in the Southeast part of the island. Manju Mohan CAS. Rethymnon. specifically from west to the east. IIT Delhi 10th NOS-DCP Meeting 14 . Prof. • There are 5 significant cities located in the north of Crete and one in the South. Nikolaos and Sitia.

Manju Mohan CAS.Map of Crete 10th NOS-DCP Meeting 15 Prof. IIT Delhi .

Risk Analysis Methodology • Cretan Sea is characterized by winds blowing from the Northern sector. Southern winds. represent less than 15% of the days. that potentially could transport pollutants towards the area of the southern coast of Crete. • The planning process should identify and measure the probability of all potential risks and the impact on the ecosystem or human/financial activity if that threat occurred. IIT Delhi . throughout the year. medium and low to identify the probability of the threat occurring. 10th NOS-DCP Meeting 16 Prof. • Use of general relational rating system of high. Manju Mohan CAS.

points 10. Medium risk. IIT Delhi .• As per priorities of significance of a particular threat . points 5 and Low risk. one point. 10th NOS-DCP Meeting 17 Prof. the impacts were rated as follows: – 0 = No impact in the financial activity of the population or no ecological disaster in the protected areas. a weighted point rating system was developed. Manju Mohan CAS. – 1 = Noticeable impact – 2 = Damage – 3 = Major damage • To measure the potential risks. • Each level of probability was assigned points as follows: High risk.

15 points and above) can be identified.Tourist Installations and beaches Prof. probability points was multiplied by the highest impact rating for each activity. quantify the risks and discriminate the results. • To obtain a weighted risk rating. Manju Mohan CAS..g.• The points assigned to each risk level are introduced in such a way to separate the three different risk levels. IIT Delhi 10th NOS-DCP Meeting 18 . threats that pose the greatest risk (e. • Based on this rating method. • The following infrastructure. in the region of Crete was identified as vulnerable to oil-spills: – Protected areas and locations of special natural beauty – Zones of Fishing and Pisciculture – Tourist zones .

Sitia. n=1. Agios Nikolaos. j: area (Heraklion.5 10th NOS-DCP Meeting 19 . Rethymnon. k=1.2. ai =1..10 .5.2 – dm Kind of disaster (fishing area.. tourist installation. bj area factor.5 – ai month factor...2.3. Manju Mohan CAS.3 – ck prevailing wind flow (Northern. IIT Delhi . protected area).. Southern) Ck =1.3..5.12. m=1. en = 1. dm=1.• The combined Risk Units for each month and area were calculated according to the following formula: RUij = ái× bj× (ck + dm +en) – RU : Risk Units – i month i=1.. Chania.2... Prof. bj =1.4..2.3 – en possibility of early fighting.. South Crete) j=1..2.

• This threshold was chosen. when RU is between 80 and 150 the risk is moderate and for more than 150 risk units the risk is high. Manju Mohan CAS. 10th NOS-DCP Meeting 20 Prof. IIT Delhi . then the risk is considered to be low. because it represents the beginning of the upper half of the scale. for the high risk.• When the combined Risk Units (RU) are less than 80.

IIT Delhi . increases during the summer period with northern winds. • The areas of Southern Crete presented low risk and thus seems to be less vulnerable to oil spill risks. and Heraklion present high risks. 10th NOS-DCP Meeting 21 Prof. • The area of the Prefecture of Rethymno (Agios Nikolaos and Sitia ) presents low risk than. Manju Mohan CAS. increasing during the summer period with northern winds.Results from Crete Oil Spill Risk Analysis • The regions of Chania. nevertheless.

Numbers are in risk units Prof. Manju Mohan CAS. IIT Delhi 10th NOS-DCP Meeting 22 .Risk Combination for Fishing areas and pisciculture installations in Crete.

and Tourist installations in Crete. Manju Mohan CAS.Risk Combination for Tourist zones. IIT Delhi 23 . Numbers are in risk units 10th NOS-DCP Meeting Prof.

IIT Delhi 24 . Manju Mohan CAS.Risk Combination for Protected areas and sites of special natural beauty. Numbers are in risk units 10th NOS-DCP Meeting Prof.

Manju Mohan CAS. 2007 #: developed by Smith et al. 1985. and transportation resulting from oil lease sales • Frequency Analysis: deliberately initiated hypothetical oil spills uniformly in space and time • Consequence Analysis: oil spill trajectory simulations through the OSRA Model # • Risk Calculations: expressed as percent chance that an oil spill starting within a particular launch area contact a segment under study *:Minerals Management Service. production. (1982) & enhanced by MMS (LaBelle & Anderson.Gulf of Mexico (GoM)* METHODOLOGY OVERVIEW • Hazard identification: activities associated with offshore oil exploration. Department of the Interior.S.. IIT Delhi . Ji et al. U. 2003-04) will 10th NOS-DCP Meeting 25 Prof.

• The OSRA Model. Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lands in the Gulf of Mexico • The study area is the Walker Ridge Planning Area that encompasses a portion of the offshore waters within the Gulf of Mexico and is approximately 140 to 160 nautical miles offshore. 10th NOS-DCP Meeting Prof.S. Manju Mohan CAS. simulates oil-spill transport using realistic data fields of winds and ocean currents in the GOM.• The Minerals Management Service (MMS) has conducted a formal oil-spill risk analysis (OSRA) to provide spill statistics that can be used in contingency planning for U. IIT Delhi 26 .

Manju Mohan CAS.Location of Gulf of Mexico Counties/Parishes (not to scale) 10th NOS-DCP Meeting 27 Prof. IIT Delhi .

S./Mexico international boundary segments in the Gulf of Mexico 10th NOS-DCP Meeting 28 Prof.Locations of the U. IIT Delhi . Manju Mohan CAS.

10th NOS-DCP Meeting 29 Prof. Manju Mohan CAS.• At about 11 km intervals in the north-south direction and about 10 km intervals in the east-west direction. • The environmental resources considered in this analysis include the counties and parishes along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico. there were 15 total launch points in space. IIT Delhi . 9 years and 7 years. At this resolution.0 day. and hypothetical spills were launched from each spatial grid point over two time periods. the OSRA model launched a hypothetical oil spill every 1. • The hypothetical oil-spill launch area for this analysis is between 140 and 160 nautical miles from the coast.

Manju Mohan CAS. 10th NOS-DCP Meeting Prof.• The model calculates the movement of hypothetical spills by successively integrating time sequences of two spatially gridded input fields: the surface ocean currents and the sea-level winds. IIT Delhi oil-spill locations–essentially. • At each successive time step. the OSRA Model generates time sequences of hypothetical trajectories. both of which were generated by other computer models using many observations of relevant physical parameters. In this fashion. oil-spill 30 . the OSRA Model compares the location of the hypothetical spills against the geographic boundaries of shoreline and designated offshore environmental resources.

IIT Delhi . 10. 3.. Manju Mohan CAS.g. • Finally. 10th NOS-DCP Meeting 31 Prof. the count of occurrence of oil spill contact is used to compute frequencies and consequently probabilities of oil-spill contact for designated oil-spill travel times (e. or 30 days).• The model counts the occurrences of oil-spill contact to these areas during the time periods that the habitat is known to be used by the resource.

et al. • The ocean model simulations were extensively skillassessed with many observations from the GoM (Herring et al. 1993-1999. performed by Princeton University (Oey.. 2005) and a good determination of the model’s veracity was made..• Two separate model runs were used to calculate the trajectories for this statistical report. IIT Delhi . Manju Mohan CAS. • The statistics for the contacts by the trajectories forced by the two model runs were combined for the average probabilities.. et al. – 9-year (1986-1994) simulation performed Dynalysis of Princeton (Herring. 10th NOS-DCP Meeting 32 Prof.2004) for and the results were saved at 1-hour intervals. et al. 1999) by – 7-year period.. 1999. Oey.

10th NOS-DCP Meeting Prof. Manju Mohan CAS. • With increased travel time. • Due to the climatology of the wind. the spring season had the higher average probabilities of contact (the highest being 8 percent).Results from GoM Oil Spill Risk Analysis • As one might expect. the environmental resource locations closest to the spill sites had the greatest risk of contact. and the fall season had the lowest (none greater than 0.5 percent). IIT Delhi 33 . the complex patterns of wind and ocean currents produce eddy-like motions of the oil spills and multiple opportunities for a spill to make contact with any given environmental resource.

Manju Mohan CAS.10th NOS-DCP Meeting 34 Prof. IIT Delhi .

10th NOS-DCP Meeting 35 Prof. IIT Delhi . Manju Mohan CAS.

(i) Detection and Monitoring. and assess spillage risk. retrieval and query. (ii) spatial database. *: Shattri B: Remote Sensing and GIS Application In Oil Spills Risk Assessment. Manju Mohan CAS. • The System is made of three sub-systems. access and protection information will be placed in GIS database and interfacing it with a relational database for rapid access. that is. and (iii) Prediction.1998 10th NOS-DCP Meeting 36 Prof. • Oil spill data.Remote Sensing & GIS :Tool in Risk Assessment* • Provide a real time and low cost system for detecting oil spill.net. GIS Development. IIT Delhi .

IIT Delhi .• The remotely sensed data as spatial data input is used to derive valuable information about marine water pollution. 10th NOS-DCP Meeting 37 Prof. SPOT Panchromatic and MSS (Multi Spectra Scanner). especially on oil spillage. Manju Mohan CAS. and air-borne images are integrated in the GIS based oil spill risk management system in order to detect. assess the risk and handle the oil spills problem in an alert situation. • The remotely sensed data including LANDSAT TM.

• Various information can be retrieved from this system such as location of oil spills. Wind. quantity of oil spills. their distribution in the affected area. 10th NOS-DCP Meeting 38 Prof. the length of shoreline affected by the oil slick. for example location of the areas of heaviest contamination. wave and current are the main parameters for this model. • An oil slick movement model incorporated into this system in favor of predicting the oil slick movement direction and duration to reach the shoreline. Manju Mohan CAS. IIT Delhi .

multiple state's resource natural resources in ways out therefore realized. Manju Mohan CAS. assessment. improve the decision-making process.• The GIS based system can be used to establish the appropriate response and locate the dense areas in a slick and local surveillance. and provide a baseline for future assessments. IIT Delhi . • This risk management for permit viewing system of the will allow new opportunities planning. to permit clean-up vessels to detect the oil to be cleared in rapid circumstances. 10th NOS-DCP Meeting 39 Prof.

Manju Mohan CAS. 2002 10th NOS-DCP Meeting 40 Prof.CALM WATER TANKER OIL RELEASED BY TANKER Satellite Imaging of an Oil Spill by a Tanker Image Source: Optical Society of America. IIT Delhi .

IIT Delhi .CONCLUSIONS • A schematic risk assessment is required for proper analysis of threat of oil spills in marine environments. • Both past data and model results can be used for risk estimation and are used as per background conditions for various regions. • Risk analysis can be carried out in different ways but should achieve the ultimate objective of threat representation so that prevention strategies can be formulated. Manju Mohan CAS. 10th NOS-DCP Meeting 41 Prof.

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