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SOCIETY OF ACTUARIES/CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY

EXAM C CONSTRUCTION AND EVALUATION OF ACTUARIAL MODELS




EXAM C SAMPLE QUESTIONS


The sample questions and solutions have been modified. This page indicates
changes made to Study Note C-09-08.

J anuary 14, 2014:
Questions and solutions 300306 have been added.

J uly 8, 2013:

Questions and solutions 73A and 290299 were added.
Question and solution 73 were modified.
Question 261 was deleted.

August 7, 2013:

Solutions to Questions 245, 295, and 297 corrected.

Questions from earlier versions that are not applicable for October 2013 have been
removed. Some of the questions in this study note are taken from past examinations.
The weight of topics in these sample questions is not representative of the weight of
topics on the exam. The syllabus indicates the exam weights by topic.




Copyright 2013 by the Society of Actuaries and the Casualty Actuarial Society









C-09-08 PRINTED IN U.S.A.
- 2 -
1. You are given:

(i) Losses follow a loglogistic distribution with cumulative distribution function:
F x
x
x
b g
b g
b g
=
+
/
/

1


(ii) The sample of losses is:
10 35 80 86 90 120 158 180 200 210 1500

Calculate the estimate of by percentile matching, using the 40
th
and 80
th
empirically
smoothed percentile estimates.

(A) Less than 77

(B) At least 77, but less than 87

(C) At least 87, but less than 97

(D) At least 97, but less than 107

(E) At least 107


2. You are given:
(i) The number of claims has a Poisson distribution.

(ii) Claim sizes have a Pareto distribution with parameters = 0.5 and = 6.

(iii) The number of claims and claim sizes are independent.

(iv) The observed pure premium should be within 2% of the expected pure premium 90%
of the time.

Determine the expected number of claims needed for full credibility.

(A) Less than 7,000

(B) At least 7,000, but less than 10,000

(C) At least 10,000, but less than 13,000

(D) At least 13,000, but less than 16,000

(E) At least 16,000
- 3 -
3. You study five lives to estimate the time from the onset of a disease to death. The times to
death are:

2 3 3 3 7

Using a triangular kernel with bandwidth 2, estimate the density function at 2.5.


(A) 8/40

(B) 12/40

(C) 14/40

(D) 16/40

(E) 17/40

4. You are given:

(i) Losses follow a single-parameter Pareto distribution with density function:

( )
( ) 1
, 1 f x x
x

+
= > , 0 < <

(ii) A random sample of size five produced three losses with values 3, 6 and 14, and two
losses exceeding 25.


Determine the maximum likelihood estimate of .


(A) 0.25

(B) 0.30

(C) 0.34

(D) 0.38

(E) 0.42


- 4 -
5. You are given:
(i) The annual number of claims for a policyholder has a binomial distribution with
probability function:
( ) ( )
2
2
1
x
x
p x q q q
x
| |
=
|
\ .
, x =0, 1, 2

(ii) The prior distribution is:

( )
3
4 , 0 1 q q q = < <

This policyholder had one claim in each of Years 1 and 2.

Determine the Bayesian estimate of the number of claims in Year 3.

(A) Less than 1.1

(B) At least 1.1, but less than 1.3

(C) At least 1.3, but less than 1.5

(D) At least 1.5, but less than 1.7

(E) At least 1.7


6. For a sample of dental claims
1 2 10
, ,..., x x x , you are given:
(i)
2
3860 and 4,574,802
i i
x x = =



(ii) Claims are assumed to follow a lognormal distribution with parameters and .

(iii) and are estimated using the method of moments.

Calculate E X 500 for the fitted distribution.

(A) Less than 125

(B) At least 125, but less than 175

(C) At least 175, but less than 225

(D) At least 225, but less than 275

(E) At least 275
- 5 -
7. DELETED
8. You are given:
(i) Claim counts follow a Poisson distribution with mean .

(ii) Claim sizes follow an exponential distribution with mean 10 .

(iii) Claim counts and claim sizes are independent, given .

(iv) The prior distribution has probability density function:

b g =
5
6
, > 1
Calculate Bhlmanns k for aggregate losses.
(A) Less than 1

(B) At least 1, but less than 2

(C) At least 2, but less than 3

(D) At least 3, but less than 4

(E) At least 4


9. DELETED


10. DELETED


- 6 -
11. You are given:

(i) Losses on a companys insurance policies follow a Pareto distribution with
probability density function:


( )
( )
2
, 0 f x x
x

= < <
+


(ii) For half of the companys policies = 1, while for the other half = 3.

For a randomly selected policy, losses in Year 1 were 5.

Determine the posterior probability that losses for this policy in Year 2 will exceed 8.

(A) 0.11

(B) 0.15

(C) 0.19

(D) 0.21

(E) 0.27

12. You are given total claims for two policyholders:

Year
Policyholder 1 2 3 4
X 730 800 650 700
Y 655 650 625 750

Using the nonparametric empirical Bayes method, determine the Bhlmann credibility
premium for Policyholder Y.

(A) 655

(B) 670

(C) 687

(D) 703

(E) 719
- 7 -
13. A particular line of business has three types of claims. The historical probability and the
number of claims for each type in the current year are:

Type
Historical
Probability
Number of Claims
in Current Year
A 0.2744 112
B 0.3512 180
C 0.3744 138

You test the null hypothesis that the probability of each type of claim in the current year is
the same as the historical probability.


Calculate the chi-square goodness-of-fit test statistic.


(A) Less than 9

(B) At least 9, but less than 10

(C) At least 10, but less than 11

(D) At least 11, but less than 12

(E) At least 12

14. The information associated with the maximum likelihood estimator of a parameter is 4n ,
where n is the number of observations.


Calculate the asymptotic variance of the maximum likelihood estimator of 2 .


(A)
1
2n


(B)
1
n


(C)
4
n


(D) 8n

(E) 16n
- 8 -
15. You are given:

(i) The probability that an insured will have at least one loss during any year is p.

(ii) The prior distribution for p is uniform on | | 0,0.5 .

(iii) An insured is observed for 8 years and has at least one loss every year.

Determine the posterior probability that the insured will have at least one loss during Year 9.

(A) 0.450

(B) 0.475

(C) 0.500

(D) 0.550

(E) 0.625

16-17. Use the following information for questions 16 and 17.
For a survival study with censored and truncated data, you are given:

Time (t)
Number at Risk
at Time t Failures at Time t
1 30 5
2 27 9
3 32 6
4 25 5
5 20 4
16. The probability of failing at or before Time 4, given survival past Time 1, is
3 1
q .
Calculate Greenwoods approximation of the variance of
3 1
q .

(A) 0.0067

(B) 0.0073

(C) 0.0080

(D) 0.0091

(E) 0.0105
- 9 -
17. Calculate the 95% log-transformed confidence interval for H 3 b g , based on the Nelson-Aalen
estimate.

(A) (0.30, 0.89)

(B) (0.31, 1.54)

(C) (0.39, 0.99)

(D) (0.44, 1.07)

(E) (0.56, 0.79)

18. You are given:

(i) Two risks have the following severity distributions:


Amount of Claim
Probability of Claim
Amount for Risk 1
Probability of Claim
Amount for Risk 2
250 0.5 0.7
2,500 0.3 0.2
60,000 0.2 0.1

(ii) Risk 1 is twice as likely to be observed as Risk 2.

A claim of 250 is observed.

Determine the Bhlmann credibility estimate of the second claim amount from the same risk.

(A) Less than 10,200

(B) At least 10,200, but less than 10,400

(C) At least 10,400, but less than 10,600

(D) At least 10,600, but less than 10,800

(E) At least 10,800
- 10 -
19. You are given:

(i) A sample x x x
1 2 10
, , , is drawn from a distribution with probability density function:

1 1 1
/ /
( ) , 0
2
x x
f x e e x


(

= + >
(



(ii) >

(iii) x x
i i
= =

150 5000
2
and

Estimate by matching the first two sample moments to the corresponding population
quantities.

(A) 9

(B) 10

(C) 15

(D) 20

(E) 21

20. You are given a sample of two values, 5 and 9.

You estimate Var(X) using the estimator g(X
1
, X
2
) =
2
1
( ) .
2
i
X X




Determine the bootstrap approximation to the mean square error of g.


(A) 1

(B) 2

(C) 4

(D) 8

(E) 16

- 11 -
21. You are given:

(i) The number of claims incurred in a month by any insured has a Poisson distribution
with mean .

(ii) The claim frequencies of different insureds are independent.

(iii) The prior distribution is gamma with probability density function:

( )
( )
6
100
100
120
e
f

=

(iv) Month Number of Insureds Number of Claims
1 100 6
2 150 8
3 200 11
4 300 ?

Determine the Bhlmann-Straub credibility estimate of the number of claims in Month 4.

(A) 16.7

(B) 16.9

(C) 17.3

(D) 17.6

(E) 18.0

- 12 -
22. You fit a Pareto distribution to a sample of 200 claim amounts and use the likelihood ratio
test to test the hypothesis that 1.5 = and 7.8 = .

You are given:

(i) The maximum likelihood estimates are

=1.4 and

=7.6.

(ii) The natural logarithm of the likelihood function evaluated at the maximum likelihood
estimates is 817.92.

(iii) ( ) ln 7.8 607.64
i
x + =




Determine the result of the test.
(A) Reject at the 0.005 significance level.

(B) Reject at the 0.010 significance level, but not at the 0.005 level.

(C) Reject at the 0.025 significance level, but not at the 0.010 level.

(D) Reject at the 0.050 significance level, but not at the 0.025 level.

(E) Do not reject at the 0.050 significance level.

- 13 -
23. For a sample of 15 losses, you are given:

(i)
Interval
Observed Number of
Losses

(0, 2] 5

(2, 5] 5

(5, ) 5

(ii) Losses follow the uniform distribution on 0, b g .

Estimate by minimizing the function
( )
2
3
1
j j
j j
E O
O
=

, where
j
E is the expected number of
losses in the jth interval and
j
O is the observed number of losses in the jth interval.

(A) 6.0

(B) 6.4

(C) 6.8

(D) 7.2

(E) 7.6
- 14 -
24. You are given:

(i) The probability that an insured will have exactly one claim is .

(ii) The prior distribution of has probability density function:

b g = < <
3
2
0 1 ,
A randomly chosen insured is observed to have exactly one claim.

Determine the posterior probability that is greater than 0.60.

(A) 0.54

(B) 0.58

(C) 0.63

(D) 0.67

(E) 0.72

25. The distribution of accidents for 84 randomly selected policies is as follows:
Number of Accidents Number of Policies
0 32
1 26
2 12
3 7
4 4
5 2
6 1
Total 84

Which of the following models best represents these data?

(A) Negative binomial

(B) Discrete uniform

(C) Poisson

- 15 -
(D) Binomial

(E) Either Poisson or Binomial
26. You are given:

(i) Low-hazard risks have an exponential claim size distribution with mean .

(ii) Medium-hazard risks have an exponential claim size distribution with mean 2 .

(iii) High-hazard risks have an exponential claim size distribution with mean 3 .

(iv) No claims from low-hazard risks are observed.

(v) Three claims from medium-hazard risks are observed, of sizes 1, 2 and 3.

(vi) One claim from a high-hazard risk is observed, of size 15.

Determine the maximum likelihood estimate of .

(A) 1

(B) 2

(C) 3

(D) 4

(E) 5

- 16 -
27. You are given:

(i)
partial
X =pure premium calculated from partially credible data

(ii)
partial
E X ( =



(iii) Fluctuations are limited to k of the mean with probability P

(iv) Z =credibility factor


Which of the following is equal to P?

(A)
partial
Pr k X k ( +



(B)
partial
Pr + Z k Z X Z k (



(C)
partial
Pr + Z Z X Z (



(D)
( )
partial
Pr 1 1 1 k Z X Z k ( + +



(E) ( )
partial
Pr 1 k Z X Z k ( + +




28. You are given:

Claim Size (X) Number of Claims
0 25 , b 25
25 50 , b 28
50 100 , b 15
100 200 , b 6

Assume a uniform distribution of claim sizes within each interval.

Estimate E E X X
2
2
150
c h b g .

- 17 -
(A) Less than 200

(B) At least 200, but less than 300

(C) At least 300, but less than 400

(D) At least 400, but less than 500

(E) At least 500

29. You are given:
(i) Each risk has at most one claim each year.

(ii)
Type of Risk Prior Probability
Annual Claim
Probability
I 0.7 0.1
II 0.2 0.2
III 0.1 0.4

One randomly chosen risk has three claims during Years 1-6.

Determine the posterior probability of a claim for this risk in Year 7.

(A) 0.22

(B) 0.28

(C) 0.33

(D) 0.40

(E) 0.46

- 18 -
30. You are given the following about 100 insurance policies in a study of time to policy
surrender:
(i) The study was designed in such a way that for every policy that was surrendered, a
new policy was added, meaning that the risk set,
j
r , is always equal to 100.

(ii) Policies are surrendered only at the end of a policy year.

(iii) The number of policies surrendered at the end of each policy year was observed to be:

1 at the end of the 1
st
policy year
2 at the end of the 2
nd
policy year
3 at the end of the 3
rd
policy year

n at the end of the n
th
policy year

(iv) The Nelson-Aalen empirical estimate of the cumulative distribution function at time
n, ) (

n F , is 0.542.

What is the value of n?
(A) 8

(B) 9

(C) 10

(D) 11

(E) 12


31. You are given the following claim data for automobile policies:
200 255 295 320 360 420 440 490 500 520 1020

Calculate the smoothed empirical estimate of the 45th percentile.

(A) 358

(B) 371

(C) 384

(D) 390

(E) 396

- 19 -
32. You are given:
(i) The number of claims made by an individual insured in a year has a Poisson
distribution with mean .

(ii) The prior distribution for is gamma with parameters = 1 and = 1.2.

Three claims are observed in Year 1, and no claims are observed in Year 2.

Using Bhlmann credibility, estimate the number of claims in Year 3.

(A) 1.35

(B) 1.36

(C) 1.40

(D) 1.41

(E) 1.43


33. In a study of claim payment times, you are given:

(i) The data were not truncated or censored.

(ii) At most one claim was paid at any one time.

(iii) The Nelson-Aalen estimate of the cumulative hazard function, H(t), immediately
following the second paid claim, was 23/132.

Determine the Nelson-Aalen estimate of the cumulative hazard function, H(t), immediately
following the fourth paid claim.

(A) 0.35

(B) 0.37

(C) 0.39

(D) 0.41

(E) 0.43
- 20 -
34. The number of claims follows a negative binomial distribution with parameters and r,
where is unknown and r is known. You wish to estimate based on n observations,
where x is the mean of these observations.


Determine the maximum likelihood estimate of .


(A)
2
x
r


(B)
x
r


(C) x

(D) rx

(E)
2
r x

35. You are given the following information about a credibility model:

First Observation Unconditional Probability
Bayesian Estimate of
Second Observation
1 1/3 1.50
2 1/3 1.50
3 1/3 3.00

Determine the Bhlmann credibility estimate of the second observation, given that the first
observation is 1.

(A) 0.75

(B) 1.00

(C) 1.25

(D) 1.50

(E) 1.75

- 21 -
36. For a survival study, you are given:

(i) The product-limit estimator

S t
0
b g is used to construct confidence intervals for
S t
0
b g .

(ii) The 95% log-transformed confidence interval for S t
0
b g is 0.695 0.843 , b g .


Determine

S t
0
b g .


(A) 0.758

(B) 0.762

(C) 0.765

(D) 0.769

(E) 0.779

37. A random sample of three claims from a dental insurance plan is given below:

225 525 950

Claims are assumed to follow a Pareto distribution with parameters = 150 and .


Determine the maximum likelihood estimate of .


(A) Less than 0.6

(B) At least 0.6, but less than 0.7

(C) At least 0.7, but less than 0.8

(D) At least 0.8, but less than 0.9

(E) At least 0.9

- 22 -
38. An insurer has data on losses for four policyholders for 7 years. The loss from the i
th

policyholder for year j is X
ij
.

You are given:
X X
ij i
j i
=
= =
d i
1
7
1
4
2
33.60

X X
i
i
=
=

c h
2
1
4
3.30

Using nonparametric empirical Bayes estimation, calculate the Bhlmann credibility factor
for an individual policyholder.


(A) Less than 0.74

(B) At least 0.74, but less than 0.77

(C) At least 0.77, but less than 0.80

(D) At least 0.80, but less than 0.83

(E) At least 0.83


39. You are given the following information about a commercial auto liability book of business:

(i) Each insureds claim count has a Poisson distribution with mean , where has a
gamma distribution with = 15 . and = 02 . .

(ii) Individual claim size amounts are independent and exponentially distributed with
mean 5000.

(iii) The full credibility standard is for aggregate losses to be within 5% of the expected
with probability 0.90.

Using classical credibility, determine the expected number of claims required for full
credibility.

- 23 -
(A) 2165

(B) 2381

(C) 3514

(D) 7216

(E) 7938

40. You are given:

(i) A sample of claim payments is:

29 64 90 135 182

(ii) Claim sizes are assumed to follow an exponential distribution.

(iii) The mean of the exponential distribution is estimated using the method of moments.

Calculate the value of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test statistic.

(A) 0.14

(B) 0.16

(C) 0.19

(D) 0.25

(E) 0.27


41. You are given:
(i) Annual claim frequency for an individual policyholder has mean and variance
2
.

(ii) The prior distribution for is uniform on the interval [0.5, 1.5].

(iii) The prior distribution for
2
is exponential with mean 1.25.

A policyholder is selected at random and observed to have no claims in Year 1.

Using Bhlmann credibility, estimate the number of claims in Year 2 for the selected
policyholder.
- 24 -
(A) 0.56

(B) 0.65

(C) 0.71

(D) 0.83

(E) 0.94


42. DELETED

43. You are given:

(i) The prior distribution of the parameter has probability density function:

b g = < <
1
1
2
,
(ii) Given = , claim sizes follow a Pareto distribution with parameters = 2 and .

A claim of 3 is observed.

Calculate the posterior probability that exceeds 2.


(A) 0.33

(B) 0.42

(C) 0.50

(D) 0.58

(E) 0.64

- 25 -
44. You are given:

(i) Losses follow an exponential distribution with mean .

(ii) A random sample of 20 losses is distributed as follows:

Loss Range Frequency
[0, 1000] 7
(1000, 2000] 6
(2000, ) 7

Calculate the maximum likelihood estimate of .

(A) Less than 1950

(B) At least 1950, but less than 2100

(C) At least 2100, but less than 2250

(D) At least 2250, but less than 2400

(E) At least 2400

45. You are given:

(i) The amount of a claim, X, is uniformly distributed on the interval 0, .

(ii) The prior density of

is b g = >
500
500
2
, .

Two claims, x
1
400 = and x
2
600 = , are observed. You calculate the posterior
distribution as:

f x x


1 2
3
4
3
600
600 , ,
c h
=
F
H
G
I
K
J
>

Calculate the Bayesian premium, E X x x
3 1 2
,
c h
.
- 26 -
(A) 450

(B) 500

(C) 550

(D) 600

(E) 650

46. The claim payments on a sample of ten policies are:

2 3 3 5 5
+
6 7 7
+
9 10
+


+indicates that the loss exceeded the policy limit

Using the product-limit estimator, calculate the probability that the loss on a policy
exceeds 8.

(A) 0.20

(B) 0.25

(C) 0.30

(D) 0.36

(E) 0.40
- 27 -
47. You are given the following observed claim frequency data collected over a period of 365
days:

Number of Claims per Day Observed Number of Days
0 50
1 122
2 101
3 92
4+ 0

Fit a Poisson distribution to the above data, using the method of maximum likelihood.

Regroup the data, by number of claims per day, into four groups:

0 1 2 3+

Apply the chi-square goodness-of-fit test to evaluate the null hypothesis that the claims
follow a Poisson distribution.

Determine the result of the chi-square test.

(A) Reject at the 0.005 significance level.

(B) Reject at the 0.010 significance level, but not at the 0.005 level.

(C) Reject at the 0.025 significance level, but not at the 0.010 level.

(D) Reject at the 0.050 significance level, but not at the 0.025 level.

(E) Do not reject at the 0.050 significance level.

- 28 -
48. You are given the following joint distribution:

X

0 1
0 0.4 0.1
1 0.1 0.2
2 0.1 0.1

For a given value of and a sample of size 10 for X:

x
i
i =

=
1
10
10


Determine the Bhlmann credibility premium.

(A) 0.75

(B) 0.79

(C) 0.82

(D) 0.86

(E) 0.89


49. You are given:

x 0 1 2 3
Pr[X =x] 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1

The method of moments is used to estimate the population mean, , and variance,
2
,
by X and
( )
2
2 i
n
X X
S
n

=

, respectively.

Calculate the bias of
2
n
S , when n =4.

- 29 -
(A) 0.72

(B) 0.49

(C) 0.24

(D) 0.08

(E) 0.00


50. You are given four classes of insureds, each of whom may have zero or one claim, with the
following probabilities:

Class Number of Claims
0 1
I 0.9 0.1
II 0.8 0.2
III 0.5 0.5
IV 0.1 0.9

A class is selected at random (with probability ), and four insureds are selected at random
from the class. The total number of claims is two.

If five insureds are selected at random from the same class, estimate the total number of
claims using Bhlmann-Straub credibility.

(A) 2.0

(B) 2.2

(C) 2.4

(D) 2.6

(E) 2.8

51. DELETED


- 30 -
52. With the bootstrapping technique, the underlying distribution function is estimated by which
of the following?

(A) The empirical distribution function

(B) A normal distribution function

(C) A parametric distribution function selected by the modeler

(D) Any of (A), (B) or (C)

(E) None of (A), (B) or (C)

53. You are given:

Number of
Claims Probability Claim Size Probability
0
1
5


1

3
5

25

150
1
3


2
3


2
1
5

50

200
2
3


1
3

Claim sizes are independent.

Determine the variance of the aggregate loss.

(A) 4,050

(B) 8,100

(C) 10,500

(D) 12,510

(E) 15,612

- 31 -
54. You are given:

(i) Losses follow an exponential distribution with mean .

(ii) A random sample of losses is distributed as follows:

Loss Range Number of Losses
(0 100] 32
(100 200] 21
(200 400] 27
(400 750] 16
(750 1000] 2
(1000 1500] 2
Total 100

Estimate by matching at the 80
th
percentile.

(A) 249

(B) 253

(C) 257

(D) 260

(E) 263


55. You are given:

Class Number of
Insureds
Claim Count Probabilities
0 1 2 3 4
1 3000
1
3

1
3

1
3
0 0
2 2000 0
1
6

2
3

1
6
0
3 1000 0 0
1
6

2
3

1
6


A randomly selected insured has one claim in Year 1.

Determine the expected number of claims in Year 2 for that insured.

- 32 -
(A) 1.00

(B) 1.25

(C) 1.33

(D) 1.67

(E) 1.75

56. You are given the following information about a group of policies:


Claim Payment Policy Limit
5 50
15 50
60 100
100 100
500 500
500 1000


Determine the likelihood function.


(A) f(50) f(50) f(100) f(100) f(500) f(1000)

(B) f(50) f(50) f(100) f(100) f(500) f(1000) / [1-F(1000)]

(C) f(5) f(15) f(60) f(100) f(500) f(500)

(D) f(5) f(15) f(60) f(100) f(500) f(500) / [1-F(1000)]

(E) f(5) f(15) f(60) [1-F(100)] [1-F(500)] f(500)

- 33 -
57. You are given:

Claim Size Number of Claims
0-25 30
25-50 32
50-100 20
100-200 8

Assume a uniform distribution of claim sizes within each interval.

Estimate the second raw moment of the claim size distribution.

(A) Less than 3300

(B) At least 3300, but less than 3500

(C) At least 3500, but less than 3700

(D) At least 3700, but less than 3900

(E) At least 3900

58. You are given:

(i) The number of claims per auto insured follows a Poisson distribution with mean .

(ii) The prior distribution for has the following probability density function:

f
e


b g
b g
b g
=

500
50
50
500



(iii) A company observes the following claims experience:

Year 1 Year 2
Number of claims 75 210
Number of autos insured 600 900

The company expects to insure 1100 autos in Year 3.
Determine the expected number of claims in Year 3.


- 34 -
(A) 178

(B) 184

(C) 193

(D) 209

(E) 224


59. The graph below shows a p-p plot of a fitted distribution compared to a sample.

Sample
Which of the following is true?

(A) The tails of the fitted distribution are too thick on the left and on the right, and the
fitted distribution has less probability around the median than the sample.

(B) The tails of the fitted distribution are too thick on the left and on the right, and the
fitted distribution has more probability around the median than the sample.

(C) The tails of the fitted distribution are too thin on the left and on the right, and the
fitted distribution has less probability around the median than the sample.

(D) The tails of the fitted distribution are too thin on the left and on the right, and the
fitted distribution has more probability around the median than the sample.

(E) The tail of the fitted distribution is too thick on the left, too thin on the right, and the
fitted distribution has less probability around the median than the sample.
Fitted
- 35 -
60. You are given the following information about six coins:

Coin Probability of Heads
1 4 0.50
5 0.25
6 0.75

A coin is selected at random and then flipped repeatedly.
i
X denotes the outcome of the ith
flip, where 1 indicates heads and 0 indicates tails. The following sequence is obtained:

S X X X X = =
1 2 3 4
1101 , , , , , , l q l q

Determine E X S
5
c h
using Bayesian analysis.

(A) 0.52

(B) 0.54

(C) 0.56

(D) 0.59

(E) 0.63


61. You observe the following five ground-up claims from a data set that is truncated from below
at 100:

125 150 165 175 250
You fit a ground-up exponential distribution using maximum likelihood estimation.

Determine the mean of the fitted distribution.

(A) 73

(B) 100

(C) 125

(D) 156

(E) 173

- 36 -
62. An insurer writes a large book of home warranty policies. You are given the following
information regarding claims filed by insureds against these policies:

(i) A maximum of one claim may be filed per year.

(ii) The probability of a claim varies by insured, and the claims experience for each
insured is independent of every other insured.

(iii) The probability of a claim for each insured remains constant over time.

(iv) The overall probability of a claim being filed by a randomly selected insured in a year
is 0.10.

(v) The variance of the individual insured claim probabilities is 0.01.

An insured selected at random is found to have filed 0 claims over the past 10 years.

Determine the Bhlmann credibility estimate for the expected number of claims the selected
insured will file over the next 5 years.

(A) 0.04

(B) 0.08

(C) 0.17

(D) 0.22

(E) 0.25

63. DELETED


64. For a group of insureds, you are given:

(i) The amount of a claim is uniformly distributed but will not exceed a certain unknown
limit .

(ii) The prior distribution of is

b g = >
500
500
2
, .

(iii) Two independent claims of 400 and 600 are observed.

Determine the probability that the next claim will exceed 550.

- 37 -
(A) 0.19

(B) 0.22

(C) 0.25

(D) 0.28

(E) 0.31


65. You are given the following information about a general liability book of business comprised
of 2500 insureds:
(i) X Y
i ij
j
N
i
=
=

1
is a random variable representing the annual loss of the i
th
insured.

(ii) N N N
1 2 2500
, ,..., are independent and identically distributed random variables
following a negative binomial distribution with parameters r = 2 and = 02 . .

(iii) Y Y Y
i i iN
i
1 2
, ,..., are independent and identically distributed random variables following
a Pareto distribution with = 30 . and = 1000.

(iv) The full credibility standard is to be within 5% of the expected aggregate losses 90%
of the time.

Using classical credibility theory, determine the partial credibility of the annual loss
experience for this book of business.

(A) 0.34

(B) 0.42

(C) 0.47

(D) 0.50

(E) 0.53

- 38 -
66. To estimate E X , you have simulated X X X X X
1 2 3 4 5
, , , and with the following results:

1 2 3 4 5
You want the standard deviation of the estimator of E X to be less than 0.05.

Estimate the total number of simulations needed.

(A) Less than 150

(B) At least 150, but less than 400

(C) At least 400, but less than 650

(D) At least 650, but less than 900

(E) At least 900

67. You are given the following information about a book of business comprised of 100 insureds:

(i) X Y
i ij
j
N
i
=
=

1
is a random variable representing the annual loss of the i
th
insured.

(ii) N N N
1 2 100
, , ..., are independent random variables distributed according to a negative
binomial distribution with parameters r (unknown) and = 02 . .

(iii) Unknown parameter r has an exponential distribution with mean 2.

(iv) Y Y Y
i i iN
i
1 2
, , ..., are independent random variables distributed according to a Pareto
distribution with = 30 . and = 1000.

Determine the Bhlmann credibility factor, Z, for the book of business.

(A) 0.000

(B) 0.045

(C) 0.500

(D) 0.826

(E) 0.905

- 39 -
68. For a mortality study of insurance applicants in two countries, you are given:
(i)
Country A Country B
t
i

j
S
j
r
j
S
j
r
1 20 200 15 100
2 54 180 20 85
3 14 126 20 65
4 22 112 10 45

(ii)
j
r is the number at risk over the period t t
i i 1
, b g . Deaths,
j
S , during the period
t t
i i 1
, b g are assumed to occur at t
i
.

(iii) S t
T
b g is the product-limit estimate of S t b g based on the data for all study
participants.

(iv) S t
B
b g is the product-limit estimate of S t b g based on the data for study participants in
Country B.

Determine S S
T B
4 4 b g b g .

(A) 0.06

(B) 0.07

(C) 0.08

(D) 0.09

(E) 0.10


69. You fit an exponential distribution to the following data:


1000 1400 5300 7400 7600


Determine the coefficient of variation of the maximum likelihood estimate of the mean, .
- 40 -
(A) 0.33

(B) 0.45

(C) 0.70

(D) 1.00

(E) 1.21

70. You are given the following information on claim frequency of automobile accidents for
individual drivers:


Business Use Pleasure Use

Expected
Claims
Claim
Variance
Expected
Claims
Claim
Variance
Rural 1.0 0.5 1.5 0.8
Urban 2.0 1.0 2.5 1.0
Total 1.8 1.06 2.3 1.12


You are also given:

(i) Each drivers claims experience is independent of every other drivers.

(ii) There are an equal number of business and pleasure use drivers.

Determine the Bhlmann credibility factor for a single driver.


(A) 0.05

(B) 0.09

(C) 0.17

(D) 0.19

(E) 0.27

- 41 -
71. You are investigating insurance fraud that manifests itself through claimants who file claims
with respect to auto accidents with which they were not involved. Your evidence consists of
a distribution of the observed number of claimants per accident and a standard distribution
for accidents on which fraud is known to be absent. The two distributions are summarized
below:

Number of Claimants
per Accident
Standard Probability
Observed Number of
Accidents
1 0.25 235
2 .35 335
3 .24 250
4 .11 111
5 .04 47
6+ .01 22
Total 1.00 1000

Determine the result of a chi-square test of the null hypothesis that there is no fraud in the
observed accidents.

(A) Reject at the 0.005 significance level.

(B) Reject at the 0.010 significance level, but not at the 0.005 level.

(C) Reject at the 0.025 significance level, but not at the 0.010 level.

(D) Reject at the 0.050 significance level, but not at the 0.025 level.

(E) Do not reject at the 0.050 significance level.

- 42 -
72. You are given the following data on large business policyholders:

(i) Losses for each employee of a given policyholder are independent and have a
common mean and variance.

(ii) The overall average loss per employee for all policyholders is 20.

(iii) The variance of the hypothetical means is 40.

(iv) The expected value of the process variance is 8000.

(v) The following experience is observed for a randomly selected policyholder:



Year
Average Loss per
Employee
Number of
Employees
1 15 800
2 10 600
3 5 400

Determine the Bhlmann-Straub credibility premium per employee for this policyholder.

(A) Less than 10.5

(B) At least 10.5, but less than 11.5

(C) At least 11.5, but less than 12.5

(D) At least 12.5, but less than 13.5

(E) At least 13.5


- 43 -
73. You are given the following information about a group of 10 claims:

Claim Size
Interval
Number of Claims
in Interval
Number of Claims
Censored in Interval
(0-15,000] 1 2
(15,000-30,000] 1 2
(30,000-45,000] 4 0

Assume that claim sizes and censorship points are uniformly distributed within each interval.

Estimate, using large data set methodology and exact exposures, the probability that a claim
exceeds 30,000.

(A) 0.67

(B) 0.70

(C) 0.74

(D) 0.77

(E) 0.80

73A. You are given the following information about a group of 10 claims:

Claim Size
Interval
Number of Claims
in Interval
Number of Claims
Censored in Interval
(0-15,000] 1 2
(15,000-30,000] 1 2
(30,000-45,000] 4 0

Assume that claim sizes and censorship points are uniformly distributed within each interval.

Estimate, using large data set methodology and actuarial exposures, the probability that a
claim exceeds 30,000.

- 44 -
(A) 0.67

(B) 0.70

(C) 0.74

(D) 0.77

(E) 0.80

74. DELETED

75. You are given:

(i) Claim amounts follow a shifted exponential distribution with probability density
function:
f x e x
x
b g
b g
= < <

1


/
,

(ii) A random sample of claim amounts X X X
1 2 10
, ,..., :

5 5 5 6 8 9 11 12 16 23

(iii) X
i
= 100 and X
i
2
1306

=

Estimate using the method of moments.

(A) 3.0

(B) 3.5

(C) 4.0

(D) 4.5

(E) 5.0

- 45 -
76. You are given:

(i) The annual number of claims for each policyholder follows a Poisson distribution
with mean .

(ii) The distribution of across all policyholders has probability density function:

f e

b g = >

, 0

(iii)

e d
n
n

z
=
0
2
1


A randomly selected policyholder is known to have had at least one claim last year.


Determine the posterior probability that this same policyholder will have at least one claim
this year.

(A) 0.70

(B) 0.75

(C) 0.78

(D) 0.81

(E) 0.86

77. A survival study gave (1.63, 2.55) as the 95% linear confidence interval for the cumulative
hazard function H t
0
b g .

Calculate the 95% log-transformed confidence interval for H t
0
b g .

(A) (0.49, 0.94)

(B) (0.84, 3.34)

(C) (1.58, 2.60)

(D) (1.68, 2.50)

(E) (1.68, 2.60)

- 46 -

- 47 -
78. You are given:

(i) Claim size, X, has mean and variance 500.

(ii) The random variable has a mean of 1000 and variance of 50.

(iii) The following three claims were observed: 750, 1075, 2000

Calculate the expected size of the next claim using Bhlmann credibility.

(A) 1025

(B) 1063

(C) 1115

(D) 1181

(E) 1266


79. Losses come from a mixture of an exponential distribution with mean 100 with probability p
and an exponential distribution with mean 10,000 with probability 1 p .

Losses of 100 and 2000 are observed.

Determine the likelihood function of p.

(A)
pe p e pe p e

F
H
G
I
K
J

F
H
G
I
K
J
1 001 20 02
100
1
10000 100
1
10000
.
,
. .
,
. .
b g b g


(B)
pe p e pe p e

F
H
G
I
K
J
+

F
H
G
I
K
J
1 001 20 02
100
1
10000 100
1
10000
.
,
.
,
. .
b g b g


(C)
pe p e pe p e

+

F
H
G
I
K
J
+

F
H
G
I
K
J
1 001 20 02
100
1
10000 100
1
10000
b g b g
. .
,
.
,


(D)
pe p e pe p e

+

F
H
G
I
K
J
+ +

F
H
G
I
K
J
1 001 20 02
100
1
10000 100
1
10000
b g b g
. .
, ,


- 48 -
(E) p
e e
p
e e
.
,
.
,
. .
+
F
H
G
I
K
J
+ +
F
H
G
I
K
J
1 001 20 02
100 10000
1
100 10000
b g
80. DELETED

81. You wish to simulate a value, Y, from a two point mixture.

With probability 0.3, Y is exponentially distributed with mean 0.5. With probability 0.7, Y
is uniformly distributed on 3 3 , . You simulate the mixing variable where low values
correspond to the exponential distribution. Then you simulate the value of Y , where low
random numbers correspond to low values of Y . Your uniform random numbers from 0 1 ,
are 0.25 and 0.69 in that order.

Calculate the simulated value of Y .


(A) 0.19

(B) 0.38

(C) 0.59

(D) 0.77

(E) 0.95

- 49 -
82. N is the random variable for the number of accidents in a single year. N follows the
distribution:

1
Pr( ) 0.9(0.1)
n
N n

= = , n =1, 2,

i
X is the random variable for the claim amount of the ith accident.
i
X follows the
distribution:

( )
0.01
0.01 , 0,
i
x
i i
g x e x i

= > = 1, 2,

Let U and
1 2
, ,... V V be independent random variables following the uniform distribution on
(0, 1). You use the inverse transformation method with U to simulate N and
i
V to simulate
i
X with small values of random numbers corresponding to small values of N and
i
X .
You are given the following random numbers for the first simulation:

u
1
v
2
v
3
v
4
v
0.05 0.30 0.22 0.52 0.46

Calculate the total amount of claims during the year for the first simulation.


(A) 0

(B) 36

(C) 72

(D) 108

(E) 144

- 50 -
83. You are the consulting actuary to a group of venture capitalists financing a search for pirate
gold.

Its a risky undertaking: with probability 0.80, no treasure will be found, and thus the
outcome is 0.

The rewards are high: with probability 0.20 treasure will be found. The outcome, if treasure
is found, is uniformly distributed on [1000, 5000].

You use the inverse transformation method to simulate the outcome, where large random
numbers from the uniform distribution on [0, 1] correspond to large outcomes.

Your random numbers for the first two trials are 0.75 and 0.85.

Calculate the average of the outcomes of these first two trials.

(A) 0

(B) 1000

(C) 2000

(D) 3000

(E) 4000

84. A health plan implements an incentive to physicians to control hospitalization under which
the physicians will be paid a bonus B equal to c times the amount by which total hospital
claims are under 400 ( ) 0 1 c .

The effect the incentive plan will have on underlying hospital claims is modeled by assuming
that the new total hospital claims will follow a two-parameter Pareto distribution with 2 =
and 300 = .

E( ) 100 B =

Calculate c.

- 51 -
(A) 0.44

(B) 0.48

(C) 0.52

(D) 0.56

(E) 0.60

85. Computer maintenance costs for a department are modeled as follows:

(i) The distribution of the number of maintenance calls each machine will need in a year
is Poisson with mean 3.

(ii) The cost for a maintenance call has mean 80 and standard deviation 200.

(iii) The number of maintenance calls and the costs of the maintenance calls are all
mutually independent.

The department must buy a maintenance contract to cover repairs if there is at least a 10%
probability that aggregate maintenance costs in a given year will exceed 120% of the
expected costs.

Using the normal approximation for the distribution of the aggregate maintenance costs,
calculate the minimum number of computers needed to avoid purchasing a maintenance
contract.

(A) 80

(B) 90

(C) 100

(D) 110

(E) 120


- 52 -
86. Aggregate losses for a portfolio of policies are modeled as follows:

(i) The number of losses before any coverage modifications follows a Poisson
distribution with mean .

(ii) The severity of each loss before any coverage modifications is uniformly distributed
between 0 and b.

The insurer would like to model the impact of imposing an ordinary deductible,
( ) 0 d d b < < , on each loss and reimbursing only a percentage, c ( ) 0 1 c < , of each loss in
excess of the deductible.

It is assumed that the coverage modifications will not affect the loss distribution.
The insurer models its claims with modified frequency and severity distributions. The
modified claim amount is uniformly distributed on the interval ( ) 0,c b d (

.

Determine the mean of the modified frequency distribution.

(A)

(B) c

(C)
d
b


(D)
b d
b




(E)
b d
c
b




- 53 -
87. The graph of the density function for losses is:
0.000
0.002
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.010
0.012
0 80 120
Loss amount, x
f(x )

Calculate the loss elimination ratio for an ordinary deductible of 20.

(A) 0.20

(B) 0.24

(C) 0.28

(D) 0.32

(E) 0.36


- 54 -
88. A towing company provides all towing services to members of the City Automobile Club.
You are given:
Towing Distance Towing Cost Frequency
0-9.99 miles 80 50%
10-29.99 miles 100 40%
30+miles 160 10%

(i) The automobile owner must pay 10% of the cost and the remainder is paid by the City
Automobile Club.

(ii) The number of towings has a Poisson distribution with mean of 1000 per year.

(iii) The number of towings and the costs of individual towings are all mutually
independent.

Using the normal approximation for the distribution of aggregate towing costs, calculate the
probability that the City Automobile Club pays more than 90,000 in any given year.

(A) 3%

(B) 10%

(C) 50%

(D) 90%

(E) 97%

89. You are given:
(i) Losses follow an exponential distribution with the same mean in all years.

(ii) The loss elimination ratio this year is 70%.

(iii) The ordinary deductible for the coming year is 4/3 of the current deductible.

Compute the loss elimination ratio for the coming year.

(A) 70%

(B) 75%

(C) 80%

(D) 85%
- 55 -

(E) 90%
90. Actuaries have modeled auto windshield claim frequencies. They have concluded that the
number of windshield claims filed per year per driver follows the Poisson distribution with
parameter , where follows the gamma distribution with mean 3 and variance 3.


Calculate the probability that a driver selected at random will file no more than 1 windshield
claim next year.


(A) 0.15

(B) 0.19

(C) 0.20

(D) 0.24

(E) 0.31

91. The number of auto vandalism claims reported per month at Sunny Daze Insurance Company
(SDIC) has mean 110 and variance 750. Individual losses have mean 1101 and standard
deviation 70. The number of claims and the amounts of individual losses are independent.


Using the normal approximation, calculate the probability that SDICs aggregate auto
vandalism losses reported for a month will be less than 100,000.


(A) 0.24

(B) 0.31

(C) 0.36

(D) 0.39

(E) 0.49


92. Prescription drug losses, S, are modeled assuming the number of claims has a geometric
distribution with mean 4, and the amount of each prescription is 40.

- 56 -
Calculate E S
+
100 b g .

- 57 -
(A) 60

(B) 82

(C) 92

(D) 114

(E) 146

93. At the beginning of each round of a game of chance the player pays 12.5. The player then
rolls one die with outcome N. The player then rolls N dice and wins an amount equal to the
total of the numbers showing on the N dice. All dice have 6 sides and are fair.

Using the normal approximation, calculate the probability that a player starting with 15,000
will have at least 15,000 after 1000 rounds.

(A) 0.01

(B) 0.04

(C) 0.06

(D) 0.09

(E) 0.12

94. X is a discrete random variable with a probability function which is a member of the (a,b,0)
class of distributions.

You are given:
(i) P X P X ( = ) = ( = ) = . 0 1 025

(ii) P X ( = ) = . 2 01875

CalculateP X = 3 b g .

- 58 -
(A) 0.120

(B) 0.125

(C) 0.130

(D) 0.135

(E) 0.140

95. The number of claims in a period has a geometric distribution with mean 4. The amount of
each claim X follows P X x = = b g 025 . , x = 1234 , , , . The number of claims and the claim
amounts are independent. S is the aggregate claim amount in the period.

Calculate F
s
3 b g .

(A) 0.27

(B) 0.29

(C) 0.31

(D) 0.33

(E) 0.35

96. Insurance agent Hunt N. Quotum will receive no annual bonus if the ratio of incurred losses
to earned premiums for his book of business is 60% or more for the year. If the ratio is less
than 60%, Hunts bonus will be a percentage of his earned premium equal to 15% of the
difference between his ratio and 60%. Hunts annual earned premium is 800,000.

Incurred losses are distributed according to the Pareto distribution, with = 500000 , and
= 2.

Calculate the expected value of Hunts bonus.

(A) 13,000

(B) 17,000

(C) 24,000

(D) 29,000

(E) 35,000
- 59 -
97. A group dental policy has a negative binomial claim count distribution with mean 300 and
variance 800.

Ground-up severity is given by the following table:

Severity Probability
40 0.25
80 0.25
120 0.25
200 0.25

You expect severity to increase 50% with no change in frequency. You decide to impose a
per claim deductible of 100.

Calculate the expected total claim payment after these changes.

(A) Less than 18,000

(B) At least 18,000, but less than 20,000

(C) At least 20,000, but less than 22,000

(D) At least 22,000, but less than 24,000

(E) At least 24,000

98. You own a fancy light bulb factory. Your workforce is a bit clumsy they keep dropping
boxes of light bulbs. The boxes have varying numbers of light bulbs in them, and when
dropped, the entire box is destroyed.

You are given:

Expected number of boxes dropped per month: 50
Variance of the number of boxes dropped per month: 100
Expected value per box: 200
Variance of the value per box: 400

You pay your employees a bonus if the value of light bulbs destroyed in a month is less than
8000.

Assuming independence and using the normal approximation, calculate the probability that
you will pay your employees a bonus next month.

- 60 -
(A) 0.16

(B) 0.19

(C) 0.23

(D) 0.27

(E) 0.31

99. For a certain company, losses follow a Poisson frequency distribution with mean 2 per year,
and the amount of a loss is 1, 2, or 3, each with probability 1/3. Loss amounts are
independent of the number of losses, and of each other.

An insurance policy covers all losses in a year, subject to an annual aggregate deductible of
2.

Calculate the expected claim payments for this insurance policy.

(A) 2.00

(B) 2.36

(C) 2.45

(D) 2.81

(E) 2.96

100. The unlimited severity distribution for claim amounts under an auto liability insurance policy
is given by the cumulative distribution:

F x e e
x x
b g =

1 08 02
002 0001
. .
. .
, x 0

The insurance policy pays amounts up to a limit of 1000 per claim.

Calculate the expected payment under this policy for one claim.

(A) 57

(B) 108

(C) 166

- 61 -
(D) 205

(E) 240
101. The random variable for a loss, X, has the following characteristics:
x
F x b g E X x b g
0 0.0 0
100 0.2 91
200 0.6 153
1000 1.0 331
Calculate the mean excess loss for a deductible of 100.

(A) 250

(B) 300

(C) 350

(D) 400

(E) 450

102. WidgetsRUs owns two factories. It buys insurance to protect itself against major repair
costs. Profit equals revenues, less the sum of insurance premiums, retained major repair
costs, and all other expenses. WidgetsRUs will pay a dividend equal to the profit, if it is
positive.

You are given:

(i) Combined revenue for the two factories is 3.

(ii) Major repair costs at the factories are independent.

(iii) The distribution of major repair costs for each factory is

k Prob (k)
0 0.4
1 0.3
2 0.2
3 0.1

(iv) At each factory, the insurance policy pays the major repair costs in excess of that
factorys ordinary deductible of 1. The insurance premium is 110% of the expected
- 62 -
claims.

(v) All other expenses are 15% of revenues.

Calculate the expected dividend.
(A) 0.43

(B) 0.47

(C) 0.51

(D) 0.55

(E) 0.59


103. For watches produced by a certain manufacturer:
(i) Lifetimes follow a single-parameter Pareto distribution with >1 and = 4.

(ii) The expected lifetime of a watch is 8 years.

Calculate the probability that the lifetime of a watch is at least 6 years.

(A) 0.44

(B) 0.50

(C) 0.56

(D) 0.61

(E) 0.67


104. Glen is practicing his simulation skills.
He generates 1000 values of the random variable X as follows:
(i) He generates the observed value from the gamma distribution with = 2 and
=1 (hence with mean 2 and variance 2).

(ii) He then generates x from the Poisson distribution with mean .

(iii) He repeats the process 999 more times: first generating a value , then generating x
from the Poisson distribution with mean .

(iv) The repetitions are mutually independent.
- 63 -

Calculate the expected number of times that his simulated value of X is 3.

- 64 -
(A) 75

(B) 100

(C) 125

(D) 150

(E) 175

105. An actuary for an automobile insurance company determines that the distribution of the
annual number of claims for an insured chosen at random is modeled by the negative
binomial distribution with mean 0.2 and variance 0.4.

The number of claims for each individual insured has a Poisson distribution and the means of
these Poisson distributions are gamma distributed over the population of insureds.

Calculate the variance of this gamma distribution.

(A) 0.20

(B) 0.25

(C) 0.30

(D) 0.35

(E) 0.40

106. A dam is proposed for a river which is currently used for salmon breeding. You have
modeled:

(i) For each hour the dam is opened the number of salmon that will pass through and
reach the breeding grounds has a distribution with mean 100 and variance 900.

(ii) The number of eggs released by each salmon has a distribution with mean of 5 and
variance of 5.

(iii) The number of salmon going through the dam each hour it is open and the numbers of
eggs released by the salmon are independent.

Using the normal approximation for the aggregate number of eggs released, determine the
least number of whole hours the dam should be left open so the probability that 10,000 eggs
will be released is greater than 95%.

- 65 -
(A) 20

(B) 23

(C) 26

(D) 29

(E) 32

107. For a stop-loss insurance on a three person group:

(i) Loss amounts are independent.

(ii) The distribution of loss amount for each person is:

Loss Amount Probability
0 0.4
1 0.3
2 0.2
3 0.1
(iii) The stop-loss insurance has a deductible of 1 for the group.

Calculate the net stop-loss premium.

(A) 2.00

(B) 2.03

(C) 2.06

(D) 2.09

(E) 2.12

- 66 -
108. For a discrete probability distribution, you are given the recursion relation

p k
k
p k b g b g =
2
1 * , k = 1, 2,.

Determine p 4 b g.

(A) 0.07

(B) 0.08

(C) 0.09

(D) 0.10

(E) 0.11

109. A company insures a fleet of vehicles. Aggregate losses have a compound Poisson
distribution. The expected number of losses is 20. Loss amounts, regardless of vehicle type,
have exponential distribution with = 200.

In order to reduce the cost of the insurance, two modifications are to be made:
(i) a certain type of vehicle will not be insured. It is estimated that this will
reduce loss frequency by 20%.

(ii) a deductible of 100 per loss will be imposed.

Calculate the expected aggregate amount paid by the insurer after the modifications.

(A) 1600

(B) 1940

(C) 2520

(D) 3200

(E) 3880

- 67 -
110. You are the producer of a television quiz show that gives cash prizes. The number of prizes,
N, and prize amounts, X, have the following distributions:

n
Pr N n = b g
x
Pr X x = b g
1 0.8

0 0.2
2 0.2

100 0.7


1000 0.1

Your budget for prizes equals the expected prizes plus the standard deviation of prizes.

Calculate your budget.

(A) 306

(B) 316

(C) 416

(D) 510

(E) 518

111. The number of accidents follows a Poisson distribution with mean 12. Each accident
generates 1, 2, or 3 claimants with probabilities
1
2
,
1
3
,
1
6
, respectively.

Calculate the variance in the total number of claimants.

(A) 20

(B) 25

(C) 30

(D) 35

(E) 40


112. In a clinic, physicians volunteer their time on a daily basis to provide care to those who are
not eligible to obtain care otherwise. The number of physicians who volunteer in any day is
uniformly distributed on the integers 1 through 5. The number of patients that can be served
by a given physician has a Poisson distribution with mean 30.

- 68 -
Determine the probability that 120 or more patients can be served in a day at the clinic, using
the normal approximation with continuity correction.
(A) 1 068 . b g

(B) 1 072 . b g

(C) 1 093 . b g

(D) 1 313 . b g

(E) 1 316 . b g

113. The number of claims, N, made on an insurance portfolio follows the following distribution:

n Pr(N=n)
0 0.7
2 0.2
3 0.1

If a claim occurs, the benefit is 0 or 10 with probability 0.8 and 0.2, respectively.

The number of claims and the benefit for each claim are independent.

Calculate the probability that aggregate benefits will exceed expected benefits by more than
2 standard deviations.

(A) 0.02

(B) 0.05

(C) 0.07

(D) 0.09

(E) 0.12

- 69 -
114. A claim count distribution can be expressed as a mixed Poisson distribution. The mean of
the Poisson distribution is uniformly distributed over the interval [0,5].

Calculate the probability that there are 2 or more claims.

(A) 0.61

(B) 0.66

(C) 0.71

(D) 0.76

(E) 0.81

115. A claim severity distribution is exponential with mean 1000. An insurance company will pay
the amount of each claim in excess of a deductible of 100.

Calculate the variance of the amount paid by the insurance company for one claim, including
the possibility that the amount paid is 0.

(A) 810,000

(B) 860,000

(C) 900,000

(D) 990,000

(E) 1,000,000

116. Total hospital claims for a health plan were previously modeled by a two-parameter Pareto
distribution with = 2 and = 500.

The health plan begins to provide financial incentives to physicians by paying a bonus of
50% of the amount by which total hospital claims are less than 500. No bonus is paid if total
claims exceed 500.

Total hospital claims for the health plan are now modeled by a new Pareto distribution with
= 2 and = K . The expected claims plus the expected bonus under the revised model
equals expected claims under the previous model.

Calculate K.

- 70 -
(A) 250

(B) 300

(C) 350

(D) 400

(E) 450

117. For an industry-wide study of patients admitted to hospitals for treatment of cardiovascular
illness in 1998, you are given:

(i)
Duration In Days Number of Patients
Remaining Hospitalized
0 4,386,000
5 1,461,554
10 486,739
15 161,801
20 53,488
25 17,384
30 5,349
35 1,337
40 0

(ii) Discharges from the hospital are uniformly distributed between the durations shown
in the table.


Calculate the mean residual time remaining hospitalized, in days, for a patient who has been
hospitalized for 21 days.

(A) 4.4

(B) 4.9

(C) 5.3

(D) 5.8

(E) 6.3

- 71 -
118. For an individual over 65:
(i) The number of pharmacy claims is a Poisson random variable with mean 25.

(ii) The amount of each pharmacy claim is uniformly distributed between 5 and 95.

(iii) The amounts of the claims and the number of claims are mutually independent.

Determine the probability that aggregate claims for this individual will exceed 2000 using the
normal approximation.
(A) 1 133 . b g

(B) 1 166 . b g

(C) 1 233 . b g

(D) 1 266 . b g

(E) 1 333 . b g

119-120 Use the following information for questions 119 and 120.
An insurer has excess-of-loss reinsurance on auto insurance. You are given:

(i) Total expected losses in the year 2001 are 10,000,000.

(ii) In the year 2001 individual losses have a Pareto distribution with

F x
x
x b g =
+
F
H
G
I
K
J
> 1
2000
2000
0
2
, .

(iii) Reinsurance will pay the excess of each loss over 3000.

(iv) Each year, the reinsurer is paid a ceded premium, C
year
, equal to 110% of the
expected losses covered by the reinsurance.

(v) Individual losses increase 5% each year due to inflation.

(vi) The frequency distribution does not change.

- 72 -
119. Calculate C
2001
.

(A) 2,200,000

(B) 3,300,000

(C) 4,400,000

(D) 5,500,000

(E) 6,600,000

120. Calculate C C
2002 2001
/ .

(A) 1.04

(B) 1.05

(C) 1.06

(D) 1.07

(E) 1.08

121. DELETED

- 73 -
122. You are simulating a compound claims distribution:

(i) The number of claims, N, is binomial with m =3 and mean 1.8.

(ii) Claim amounts are uniformly distributed on { } 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 .

(iii) Claim amounts are independent, and are independent of the number of claims.

(iv) You simulate the number of claims, N, then the amounts of each of those claims,
1 2
, , ,
N
X X X . Then you repeat another N, its claim amounts, and so on until you
have performed the desired number of simulations.

(v) When the simulated number of claims is 0, you do not simulate any claim amounts.

(vi) All simulations use the inverse transform method, with low random numbers
corresponding to few claims or small claim amounts.

(vii) Your random numbers from (0, 1) are 0.7, 0.1, 0.3, 0.1, 0.9, 0.5, 0.5, 0.7, 0.3, and 0.1.

Calculate the aggregate claim amount associated with your third simulated value of N.

(A) 3

(B) 5

(C) 7

(D) 9

(E) 11
- 74 -
123. Annual prescription drug costs are modeled by a two-parameter Pareto distribution with
2000 = and 2 = .

A prescription drug plan pays annual drug costs for an insured member subject to the
following provisions:

(i) The insured pays 100% of costs up to the ordinary annual deductible of 250.

(ii) The insured then pays 25% of the costs between 250 and 2250.

(iii) The insured pays 100% of the costs above 2250 until the insured has paid 3600 in
total.

(iv) The insured then pays 5% of the remaining costs.


Determine the expected annual plan payment.

(A) 1120

(B) 1140

(C) 1160

(D) 1180

(E) 1200

124. For a tyrannosaur with a taste for scientists:

(i) The number of scientists eaten has a binomial distribution with q =0.6 and m =8.

(ii) The number of calories of a scientist is uniformly distributed on (7000, 9000).

(iii) The numbers of calories of scientists eaten are independent, and are independent of
the number of scientists eaten.


Calculate the probability that two or more scientists are eaten and exactly two of those eaten
have at least 8000 calories each.


- 75 -
(A) 0.23

(B) 0.25

(C) 0.27

(D) 0.30

(E) 0.35

125. Two types of insurance claims are made to an insurance company. For each type, the
number of claims follows a Poisson distribution and the amount of each claim is uniformly
distributed as follows:

Type of Claim Poisson Parameter for
Number of Claims in one
year
Range of Each Claim
Amount
I 12 (0, 1)
II 4 (0, 5)

The numbers of claims of the two types are independent and the claim amounts and claim
numbers are independent.

Calculate the normal approximation to the probability that the total of claim amounts in one
year exceeds 18.


(A) 0.37

(B) 0.39

(C) 0.41

(D) 0.43

(E) 0.45

126. The number of annual losses has a Poisson distribution with a mean of 5. The size of each
loss has a two-parameter Pareto distribution with 10 = and 2.5 = . An insurance for the
losses has an ordinary deductible of 5 per loss.


Calculate the expected value of the aggregate annual payments for this insurance.


- 76 -
(A) 8

(B) 13

(C) 18

(D) 23

(E) 28

127. Losses in 2003 follow a two-parameter Pareto distribution with =2 and =5. Losses in
2004 are uniformly 20% higher than in 2003. An insurance covers each loss subject to an
ordinary deductible of 10.

Calculate the Loss Elimination Ratio in 2004.

(A) 5/9

(B) 5/8

(C) 2/3

(D) 3/4

(E) 4/5

128. DELETED

129. DELETED

130. Bob is a carnival operator of a game in which a player receives a prize worth 2
N
W = if the
player has N successes, N =0, 1, 2, 3, Bob models the probability of success for a player
as follows:

(i) N has a Poisson distribution with mean .

(ii) has a uniform distribution on the interval (0, 4).

Calculate
| |
E W .


- 77 -
(A) 5

(B) 7

(C) 9

(D) 11

(E) 13

131. You are simulating the gain/loss from insurance where:

(i) Claim occurrences follow a Poisson process with 2/3 = per year.

(ii) Each claim amount is 1, 2 or 3 with (1) 0.25, (2) 0.25, and (3) 0.50 p p p = = = .

(iii) Claim occurrences and amounts are independent.

(iv) The annual premium equals expected annual claims plus 1.8 times the standard
deviation of annual claims.

(v) i =0

You use 0.25, 0.40, 0.60, and 0.80 from the unit interval and the inversion method to
simulate time between claims.

You use 0.30, 0.60, 0.20, and 0.70 from the unit interval and the inversion method to
simulate claim size.


Calculate the gain or loss from the insurers viewpoint during the first 2 years from this
simulation.


(A) loss of 5

(B) loss of 4

(C) 0

(D) gain of 4

(E) gain of 5


- 78 -
132. Annual dental claims are modeled as a compound Poisson process where the number of
claims has mean 2 and the loss amounts have a two-parameter Pareto distribution with
500 = and 2 = .

An insurance pays 80% of the first 750 of annual losses and 100% of annual losses in excess
of 750.

You simulate the number of claims and loss amounts using the inverse transform method
with small random numbers corresponding to small numbers of claims or small loss amounts.

The random number to simulate the number of claims is 0.8. The random numbers to
simulate loss amounts are 0.60, 0.25, 0.70, 0.10 and 0.80.


Calculate the total simulated insurance claims for one year.

(A) 294

(B) 625

(C) 631

(D) 646

(E) 658


133. You are given:

(i) The annual number of claims for an insured has probability function:

( ) ( )
3
3
1
x
x
p x q q
x
| |
=
|
\ .
, 0,1, 2, 3 x =

(ii) The prior density is q q 2 ) ( = , 0 <q <1.

A randomly chosen insured has zero claims in Year 1.


Using Bhlmann credibility, estimate the number of claims in Year 2 for the selected insured.



- 79 -
(A) 0.33

(B) 0.50

(C) 1.00

(D) 1.33

(E) 1.50

134. You are given the following random sample of 13 claim amounts:

99 133 175 216 250 277 651 698 735 745 791 906 947


Determine the smoothed empirical estimate of the 35
th
percentile.

(A) 219.4

(B) 231.3

(C) 234.7

(D) 246.6

(E) 256.8

- 80 -
135. For observation i of a survival study:

d
i
is the left truncation point

x
i
is the observed value if not right censored

u
i
is the observed value if right censored

You are given:

Observation (i)
i
d
i
x
i
u
1 0 0.9
2 0 1.2
3 0 1.5
4 0 1.5
5 0 1.6
6 0 1.7
7 0 1.7
8 1.3 2.1
9 1.5 2.1
10 1.6 2.3


Determine the Kaplan-Meier Product-Limit estimate,
10
S (1.6).


(A) Less than 0.55

(B) At least 0.55, but less than 0.60

(C) At least 0.60, but less than 0.65

(D) At least 0.65, but less than 0.70

(E) At least 0.70


- 81 -
136. You are given:

(i) Two classes of policyholders have the following severity distributions:
Claim Amount Probability of Claim
Amount for Class 1
Probability of Claim
Amount for Class 2
250 0.5 0.7
2,500 0.3 0.2
60,000 0.2 0.1

(ii) Class 1 has twice as many claims as Class 2.

A claim of 250 is observed.

Determine the Bayesian estimate of the expected value of a second claim from the same
policyholder.

(A) Less than 10,200

(B) At least 10,200, but less than 10,400

(C) At least 10,400, but less than 10,600

(D) At least 10,600, but less than 10,800

(E) At least 10,800

137. You are given the following three observations:

0.74 0.81 0.95

You fit a distribution with the following density function to the data:

f x p x x
p
b g b g = + < < 1 0 1 , , p > 1

Determine the maximum likelihood estimate of p.

(A) 4.0

(B) 4.1

(C) 4.2

(D) 4.3

(E) 4.4
- 82 -
138. You are given the following sample of claim counts:

0 0 1 2 2

You fit a binomial(m, q) model with the following requirements:

(i) The mean of the fitted model equals the sample mean.

(ii) The 33
rd
percentile of the fitted model equals the smoothed empirical 33
rd
percentile
of the sample.

Determine the smallest estimate of m that satisfies these requirements.


(A) 2

(B) 3

(C) 4

(D) 5

(E) 6

139. Members of three classes of insureds can have 0, 1 or 2 claims, with the following
probabilities:

Number of Claims
Class 0 1 2
I 0.9 0.0 0.1
II 0.8 0.1 0.1
III 0.7 0.2 0.1

A class is chosen at random, and varying numbers of insureds from that class are observed
over 2 years, as shown below:

Year Number of Insureds Number of Claims
1 20 7
2 30 10

Determine the Bhlmann-Straub credibility estimate of the number of claims in Year 3 for 35
insureds from the same class.


- 83 -
(A) 10.6

(B) 10.9

(C) 11.1

(D) 11.4

(E) 11.6

140. You are given the following random sample of 30 auto claims:

54 140 230 560 600 1,100 1,500 1,800 1,920 2,000
2,450 2,500 2,580 2,910 3,800 3,800 3,810 3,870 4,000 4,800
7,200 7,390 11,750 12,000 15,000 25,000 30,000 32,300 35,000 55,000

You test the hypothesis that auto claims follow a continuous distribution F(x) with the
following percentiles:

x 310 500 2,498 4,876 7,498 12,930
F(x) 0.16 0.27 0.55 0.81 0.90 0.95

You group the data using the largest number of groups such that the expected number of
claims in each group is at least 5.


Calculate the chi-square goodness-of-fit statistic.


(A) Less than 7

(B) At least 7, but less than 10

(C) At least 10, but less than 13

(D) At least 13, but less than 16

(E) At least 16


- 84 -
141. The interval (0.357, 0.700) is a 95% log-transformed confidence interval for the cumulative
hazard rate function at time t, where the cumulative hazard rate function is estimated using
the Nelson-Aalen estimator.


Determine the value of the Nelson-Aalen estimate of S(t).


(A) 0.50

(B) 0.53

(C) 0.56

(D) 0.59

(E) 0.61

142. You are given:

(i) The number of claims observed in a 1-year period has a Poisson distribution with
mean .

(ii) The prior density is:

( ) , 0
1
k
e
k
e

= < <



(iii) The unconditional probability of observing zero claims in 1 year is 0.575.


Determine k.


(A) 1.5

(B) 1.7

(C) 1.9

(D) 2.1

(E) 2.3

- 85 -
143. The parameters of the inverse Pareto distribution

( ) ( ) / F x x x

( = +




are to be estimated using the method of moments based on the following data:

15 45 140 250 560 1340


Estimate by matching kth moments with k = 1 and k = 2 .


(A) Less than 1

(B) At least 1, but less than 5

(C) At least 5, but less than 25

(D) At least 25, but less than 50

(E) At least 50

144. A sample of claim amounts is {300, 600, 1500}. By applying the deductible to this sample,
the loss elimination ratio for a deductible of 100 per claim is estimated to be 0.125.

You are given the following simulations from the sample:

Simulation Claim Amounts
1 600 600 1500
2 1500 300 1500
3 1500 300 600
4 600 600 300
5 600 300 1500
6 600 600 1500
7 1500 1500 1500
8 1500 300 1500
9 300 600 300
10 600 600 600


Determine the bootstrap approximation to the mean square error of the estimate.



- 86 -
(A) 0.003

(B) 0.010

(C) 0.021

(D) 0.054

(E) 0.081

145. You are given the following commercial automobile policy experience:


Company Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Losses
Number of Automobiles
I
50,000
100
50,000
200
?
?
Losses
Number of Automobiles
II
?
?
150,000
500
150,000
300
Losses
Number of Automobiles
III
150,000
50
?
?
150,000
150


Determine the nonparametric empirical Bayes credibility factor, Z, for Company III.


(A) Less than 0.2

(B) At least 0.2, but less than 0.4

(C) At least 0.4, but less than 0.6

(D) At least 0.6, but less than 0.8

(E) At least 0.8

146. Let
1 2
, ,...,
n
x x x and
1 2
, ,...,
m
y y y denote independent random samples of losses from
Region 1 and Region 2, respectively. Single-parameter Pareto distributions with 1 = , but
different values of , are used to model losses in these regions.

Past experience indicates that the expected value of losses in Region 2 is 1.5 times the
expected value of losses in Region 1. You intend to calculate the maximum likelihood
estimate of for Region 1,

using the data from both regions.

Which of the following equations must be solved?

- 87 -
(A) ( ) ln 0
i
n
x



(B) ( )
( ) ( )
( )
2
2 ln 2
ln 0
3
2
i
i
y m n
x



+
+ =
+



(C) ( )
( )
( )
( )
2
2 ln
2
ln 0
3 2
2
i
i
y
n m
x


+ =
+
+



(D) ( )
( )
( )
( )
2
6 ln
2
ln 0
2
2
i
i
y
n m
x


+ =
+
+



(E) ( )
( )
( )
( )
2
6 ln
3
ln 0
3
3
i
i
y
n m
x


+ =



147. From a population having distribution function F, you are given the following sample:

2.0, 3.3, 3.3, 4.0, 4.0, 4.7, 4.7, 4.7

Calculate the kernel density estimate of F(4), using the uniform kernel with bandwidth 1.4.

(A) 0.31

(B) 0.41

(C) 0.50

(D) 0.53

(E) 0.63

- 88 -
148. You are given:

(i) The number of claims has probability function:

( ) ( ) 1
m x
x
m
p x q q
x
| |
=
|
\ .
, x =0, 1, 2,, m

(ii) The actual number of claims must be within 1% of the expected number of claims
with probability 0.95.

(iii) The expected number of claims for full credibility is 34,574.


Determine q.


(A) 0.05

(B) 0.10

(C) 0.20

(D) 0.40

(E) 0.80

149. If the proposed model is appropriate, which of the following tends to zero as the sample size
goes to infinity?

(A) Kolmogorov-Smirnov test statistic

(B) Anderson-Darling test statistic

(C) Chi-square goodness-of-fit test statistic

(D) Schwarz Bayesian adjustment

(E) None of (A), (B), (C) or (D)

- 89 -
150. You are given:

(i) Losses are uniformly distributed on ( ) 0, with >150.

(ii) The policy limit is 150.

(iii) A sample of payments is:

14, 33, 72, 94, 120, 135, 150, 150

Estimate by matching the average sample payment to the expected payment per loss.

(A) 192

(B) 196

(C) 200

(D) 204

(E) 208

151. You are given:

(i) A portfolio of independent risks is divided into two classes.

(ii) Each class contains the same number of risks.

(iii) For each risk in Class 1, the number of claims per year follows a Poisson distribution
with mean 5.

(iv) For each risk in Class 2, the number of claims per year follows a binomial distribution
with 8 = m and 55 . 0 = q .

(v) A randomly selected risk has three claims in Year 1, r claims in Year 2 and four
claims in Year 3.

The Bhlmann credibility estimate for the number of claims in Year 4 for this risk is 4.6019.


Determine r .


- 90 -
(A) 1

(B) 2

(C) 3

(D) 4

(E) 5

152. You are given:

(i) A sample of losses is:

600 700 900

(ii) No information is available about losses of 500 or less.

(iii) Losses are assumed to follow an exponential distribution with mean .


Determine the maximum likelihood estimate of .

(A) 233

(B) 400

(C) 500

(D) 733

(E) 1233

153. DELETED

- 91 -
154. You are given:

(v) Claim counts follow a Poisson distribution with mean .

(vi) Claim sizes follow a lognormal distribution with parameters and .

(vii) Claim counts and claim sizes are independent.

(viii) The prior distribution has joint probability density function:

( ) , , 2 f = , 0 1 < < , 0 1 < < , 0 1 < <


Calculate Bhlmanns k for aggregate losses.

(A) Less than 2

(B) At least 2, but less than 4

(C) At least 4, but less than 6

(D) At least 6, but less than 8

(E) At least 8


155. You are given the following data:

0.49 0.51 0.66 1.82 3.71 5.20 7.62 12.66 35.24


You use the method of percentile matching at the 40
th
and 80
th
percentiles to fit an Inverse
Weibull distribution to these data.


Determine the estimate of .


- 92 -
(A) Less than 1.35

(B) At least 1.35, but less than 1.45

(C) At least 1.45, but less than 1.55

(D) At least 1.55, but less than 1.65

(E) At least 1.65

156. You are given:

(i) The number of claims follows a Poisson distribution with mean .

(ii) Observations other than 0 and 1 have been deleted from the data.

(iii) The data contain an equal number of observations of 0 and 1.

Determine the maximum likelihood estimate of .

(A) 0.50

(B) 0.75

(C) 1.00

(D) 1.25

(E) 1.50

157. You are given:

(i) In a portfolio of risks, each policyholder can have at most one claim per year.

(ii) The probability of a claim for a policyholder during a year is q .

(iii) The prior density is ,
07 . 0
) (
3
q
q = . 8 . 0 6 . 0 < < q

A randomly selected policyholder has one claim in Year 1 and zero claims
in Year 2.

For this policyholder, determine the posterior probability that . 8 . 0 7 . 0 < < q

- 93 -
(A) Less than 0.3

(B) At least 0.3, but less than 0.4

(C) At least 0.4, but less than 0.5

(D) At least 0.5, but less than 0.6

(E) At least 0.6

158. You are given:

(i) The following is a sample of 15 losses:

11, 22, 22, 22, 36, 51, 69, 69, 69, 92, 92, 120, 161, 161, 230

(ii)
1

( ) x H is the Nelson-Aalen empirical estimate of the cumulative hazard rate function.



(iii)
2

( ) H x is the maximum likelihood estimate of the cumulative hazard rate function


under the assumption that the sample is drawn from an exponential distribution.

Calculate
2 1

(75) (75) H H .

(A) 0.00

(B) 0.11

(C) 0.22

(D) 0.33

(E) 0.44

- 94 -
159. For a portfolio of motorcycle insurance policyholders, you are given:

(i) The number of claims for each policyholder has a conditional Poisson
distribution.

(ii) For Year 1, the following data are observed:

Number of Claims Number of Policyholders
0 2000
1 600
2 300
3 80
4 20
Total 3000


Determine the credibility factor, Z, for Year 2.


(A) Less than 0.30

(B) At least 0.30, but less than 0.35

(C) At least 0.35, but less than 0.40

(D) At least 0.40, but less than 0.45

(E) At least 0.45

160. You are given a random sample of observations:

0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.3

You test the hypothesis that the probability density function is:

( )
( )
5
4
, 0
1
f x x
x
= >
+





Calculate the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test statistic.


- 95 -
(A) Less than 0.05

(B) At least 0.05, but less than 0.15

(C) At least 0.15, but less than 0.25

(D) At least 0.25, but less than 0.35

(E) At least 0.35

161. Which of the following statements is true?

(A) A uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator is an estimator such that no other
estimator has a smaller variance.

(B) An estimator is consistent whenever the variance of the estimator approaches zero as
the sample size increases to infinity.

(C) A consistent estimator is also unbiased.

(D) For an unbiased estimator, the mean squared error is always equal to the variance.

(E) One computational advantage of using mean squared error is that it is not a function
of the true value of the parameter.

162. A loss, X, follows a 2-parameter Pareto distribution with 2 = and unspecified
parameter . You are given:

5
E 100 100 E 50 50
3
X X X X > ( = > (




Calculate E 150 150 X X > (

.


(A) 150

(B) 175

(C) 200

(D) 225

(E) 250
- 96 -
163. The scores on the final exam in Ms. Bs Latin class have a normal distribution with mean
and standard deviation equal to 8. is a random variable with a normal distribution with
mean equal to 75 and standard deviation equal to 6.

Each year, Ms. B chooses a student at random and pays the student 1 times the students
score. However, if the student fails the exam (score 65 ), then there is no payment.

Calculate the conditional probability that the payment is less than 90, given that there is a
payment.

(A) 0.77

(B) 0.85

(C) 0.88

(D) 0.92

(E) 1.00

164. For a collective risk model the number of losses, N, has a Poisson distribution with 20 = .
The common distribution of the individual losses has the following characteristics:

(i) | | E 70 X =

(ii) | | E 30 25 X =

(iii) ( ) Pr 30 0.75 X > =

(iv)
2
E 30 9000 X X
(
> =


An insurance covers aggregate losses subject to an ordinary deductible of 30 per loss.

Calculate the variance of the aggregate payments of the insurance.

(A) 54,000

(B) 67,500

(C) 81,000

(D) 94,500

(E) 108,000
- 97 -
165. For a collective risk model:

(i) The number of losses has a Poisson distribution with 2 = .

(ii) The common distribution of the individual losses is:

x ( )
x
f x
1 0.6
2 0.4

An insurance covers aggregate losses subject to a deductible of 3.


Calculate the expected aggregate payments of the insurance.


(A) 0.74

(B) 0.79

(C) 0.84

(D) 0.89

(E) 0.94

166. A discrete probability distribution has the following properties:

(i)
1
1
1
k k
p c p
k

| |
= +
|
\ .
for k =1, 2,

(ii)
0
0.5 p =

Calculate c.

(A) 0.06

(B) 0.13

(C) 0.29

(D) 0.35

(E) 0.40
- 98 -
167. The repair costs for boats in a marina have the following characteristics:

Boat type
Number of
boats
Probability that
repair is needed
Mean of repair cost
given a repair
Variance of repair
cost given a repair
Power boats 100 0.3 300 10,000
Sailboats 300 0.1 1000 400,000
Luxury yachts 50 0.6 5000 2,000,000

At most one repair is required per boat each year.

The marina budgets an amount, Y, equal to the aggregate mean repair costs plus the standard
deviation of the aggregate repair costs.

Calculate Y.

(A) 200,000

(B) 210,000

(C) 220,000

(D) 230,000

(E) 240,000

168. For an insurance:

(i) Losses can be 100, 200 or 300 with respective probabilities 0.2, 0.2, and 0.6.

(ii) The insurance has an ordinary deductible of 150 per loss.

(iii)
P
Y is the claim payment per payment random variable.


Calculate
( )
Var
P
Y .

- 99 -
(A) 1500

(B) 1875

(C) 2250

(D) 2625

(E) 3000

169. The distribution of a loss, X , is a two-point mixture:

(i) With probability 0.8, X has a two-parameter Pareto distribution with
= = 2 100 and .

(ii) With probability 0.2, X has a two-parameter Pareto distribution with
4 and 3000 = = .

Calculate ( ) Pr 200 X .


(A) 0.76

(B) 0.79

(C) 0.82

(D) 0.85

(E) 0.88

170. In a certain town the number of common colds an individual will get in a year follows a
Poisson distribution that depends on the individuals age and smoking status. The
distribution of the population and the mean number of colds are as follows:

Proportion of population Mean number of colds
Children 0.30 3
Adult Non-Smokers 0.60 1
Adult Smokers 0.10 4


Calculate the conditional probability that a person with exactly 3 common colds in a year is
an adult smoker.

- 100 -
(A) 0.12

(B) 0.16

(C) 0.20

(D) 0.24

(E) 0.28

171. For aggregate losses, S:

(i) The number of losses has a negative binomial distribution with mean 3 and
variance 3.6.

(ii) The common distribution of the independent individual loss amounts is uniform from
0 to 20.


Calculate the 95
th
percentile of the distribution of S as approximated by the normal
distribution.

(A) 61

(B) 63

(C) 65

(D) 67

(E) 69


- 101 -
172. You are given:

(i) A random sample of five observations from a population is:

0.2 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3

(ii) You use the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for testing the null hypothesis,
0
H , that the
probability density function for the population is:

( )
( )
5
4
, 0
1
f x x
x
= >
+


(iii) Critical values for the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test are:

Level of Significance 0.10 0.05 0.025 0.01
Critical Value
n
22 . 1

n
36 . 1

n
48 . 1

n
63 . 1


Determine the result of the test.

(A) Do not reject
0
H at the 0.10 significance level.

(B) Reject
0
H at the 0.10 significance level, but not at the 0.05 significance level.

(C) Reject
0
H at the 0.05 significance level, but not at the 0.025 significance level.

(D) Reject
0
H at the 0.025 significance level, but not at the 0.01 significance level.

(E) Reject
0
H at the 0.01 significance level.


- 102 -
173. You are given:

(iv) The number of claims follows a negative binomial distribution with parameters r and
3 = .

(v) Claim severity has the following distribution:

Claim Size Probability
1 0.4
10 0.4
100 0.2

(iii) The number of claims is independent of the severity of claims.


Determine the expected number of claims needed for aggregate losses to be within 10% of
expected aggregate losses with 95% probability.


(A) Less than 1200

(B) At least 1200, but less than 1600

(C) At least 1600, but less than 2000

(D) At least 2000, but less than 2400

(E) At least 2400


174. You are given:

(vi) A mortality study covers n lives.

(vii) None were censored and no two deaths occurred at the same time.

(viii) =
k
t time of the
th
k death

(ix) A Nelson-Aalen estimate of the cumulative hazard rate function is
380
39
) (

2
= t H .


Determine the Kaplan-Meier product-limit estimate of the survival function at time
9
t .
- 103 -
(A) Less than 0.56

(B) At least 0.56, but less than 0.58

(C) At least 0.58, but less than 0.60

(D) At least 0.60, but less than 0.62

(E) At least 0.62

175. Three observed values of the random variable X are:

1 1 4

You estimate the third central moment of X using the estimator:

( ) ( )
3
1 2 3
1
, ,
3
i
g X X X X X =



Determine the bootstrap estimate of the mean-squared error of g.


(A) Less than 3.0

(B) At least 3.0, but less than 3.5

(C) At least 3.5, but less than 4.0

(D) At least 4.0, but less than 4.5

(E) At least 4.5

- 104 -
176. You are given the following p-p plot:
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
F
n
(x)
F
(
x
)

The plot is based on the sample:

1 2 3 15 30 50 51 99 100


Determine the fitted model underlying the p-p plot.


(A) F(x) =1
0.25
x

, x 1

(B) F(x) =x / (1 +x), x 0

(C) Uniform on [1, 100]

(D) Exponential with mean 10

(E) Normal with mean 40 and standard deviation 40


- 105 -
177. You are given:

(i) Claims are conditionally independent and identically Poisson distributed with
mean .

(ii) The prior distribution function of is:

2.6
1
( ) 1
1
F

| |
=
|
+
\ .
, 0 >
Five claims are observed.

Determine the Bhlmann credibility factor.

(A) Less than 0.6

(B) At least 0.6, but less than 0.7

(C) At least 0.7, but less than 0.8

(D) At least 0.8, but less than 0.9

(E) At least 0.9

178. DELETED

179-180. Use the following information for questions 179 and 180.

The time to an accident follows an exponential distribution. A random sample of size two
has a mean time of 6.

Let Y denote the mean of a new sample of size two.

179. Determine the maximum likelihood estimate of ( ) Pr 10 Y > .

(A) 0.04

(B) 0.07

(C) 0.11

(D) 0.15

(E) 0.19
- 106 -
180. Use the delta method to approximate the variance of the maximum likelihood estimator of
(10)
Y
F .

(A) 0.08

(B) 0.12

(C) 0.16

(D) 0.19

(E) 0.22


181. You are given:

(i) The number of claims in a year for a selected risk follows a Poisson distribution with
mean .

(ii) The severity of claims for the selected risk follows an exponential distribution with
mean .

(iii) The number of claims is independent of the severity of claims.

(iv) The prior distribution of is exponential with mean 1.

(v) The prior distribution of is Poisson with mean 1.

(vi) A priori, and are independent.


Using Bhlmanns credibility for aggregate losses, determine k.


(A) 1

(B) 4/3

(C) 2

(D) 3

(E) 4

- 107 -
182. A company insures 100 people age 65. The annual probability of death for each person is
0.03. The deaths are independent.


Use the inversion method to simulate the number of deaths in a year. Do this three times
using:

1
2
3
0.20
0.03
0.09
u
u
u
=
=
=


Calculate the average of the simulated values.

(A)
1
3


(B) 1

(C)
5
3


(D)
7
3


(E) 3

183. You are given claim count data for which the sample mean is roughly equal to the sample
variance. Thus you would like to use a claim count model that has its mean equal to its
variance. An obvious choice is the Poisson distribution.

Determine which of the following models may also be appropriate.

(A) A mixture of two binomial distributions with different means

(B) A mixture of two Poisson distributions with different means

(C) A mixture of two negative binomial distributions with different means

(D) None of (A), (B) or (C)

(E) All of (A), (B) and (C)



- 108 -
184. You are given:

(i) Annual claim frequencies follow a Poisson distribution with mean .

(ii) The prior distribution of has probability density function:

( )
/6 /12
1 1
(0.4) (0.6) , 0
6 12
e e



= + >

Ten claims are observed for an insured in Year 1.

Determine the Bayesian expected number of claims for the insured in Year 2.

(A) 9.6

(B) 9.7

(C) 9.8

(D) 9.9

(E) 10.0

185. Twelve policyholders were monitored from the starting date of the policy to the time of first
claim. The observed data are as follows:

Time of First Claim 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Number of Claims 2 1 2 2 1 2 2


Using the Nelson-Aalen estimator, calculate the 95% linear confidence interval for the
cumulative hazard rate function H(4.5).

(A) (0.189, 1.361)

(B) (0.206, 1.545)

(C) (0.248, 1.402)

(D) (0.283, 1.266)

(E) (0.314, 1.437)
- 109 -
186. For the random variable X, you are given:

(i)
| |
E X = , 0 >

(ii) ( )
2
Var
25
X

=

(iii)

,
1
k
X
k
=
+
0 k >

(iv) ( ) ( )
2

MSE 2 bias


(
=



Determine k.

(A) 0.2

(B) 0.5

(C) 2

(D) 5

(E) 25

187. You are given:

(i) The annual number of claims on a given policy has a geometric distribution with
parameter .

(ii) The prior distribution of has the Pareto density function

( 1)
( ) , 0
( 1)

+
= < <
+
,

where is a known constant greater than 2.

A randomly selected policy had x claims in Year 1.


Determine the Bhlmann credibility estimate of the number of claims for the selected policy
in Year 2.

- 110 -
(A)
1
1


(B)
( 1) 1
( 1)
x



(C) x

(D)
1 x

+


(E)
1
1
x



188. DELETED

189. Which of the following statements is true?

(A) For a null hypothesis that the population follows a particular distribution, using
sample data to estimate the parameters of the distribution tends to decrease the
probability of a Type II error.

(B) The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test can be used on individual or grouped data.

(C) The Anderson-Darling test tends to place more emphasis on a good fit in the middle
rather than in the tails of the distribution.

(D) For a given number of cells, the critical value for the chi-square goodness-of-fit test
becomes larger with increased sample size.

(E) None of (A), (B), (C) or (D) is true.

- 111 -
190. For a particular policy, the conditional probability of the annual number of claims given
= , and the probability distribution of are as follows:

Number of claims 0 1 2
Probability 2 1 3

0.05 0.30
Probability 0.80 0.20

Two claims are observed in Year 1.

Calculate the Bhlmann credibility estimate of the number of claims in Year 2.

(A) Less than 1.68

(B) At least 1.68, but less than 1.70

(C) At least 1.70, but less than 1.72

(D) At least 1.72, but less than 1.74

(E) At least 1.74


191. You are given:

(i) The annual number of claims for a policyholder follows a Poisson distribution with
mean .

(ii) The prior distribution of is gamma with probability density function:

f ( ) =
5 2
(2 )
24
e

, 0 >

An insured is selected at random and observed to have
1
5 x = claims during Year 1 and
2
3 x = claims during Year 2.


Determine
( )
1 2
E 5, 3 x x = = .


- 112 -
(A) 3.00

(B) 3.25

(C) 3.50

(D) 3.75

(E) 4.00

192. You are given the kernel:

( )
2
otherwise
2
1 ( ) , 1 1
0,
y
x y y x y
k x



You are also given the following random sample:

1 3 3 5

Determine which of the following graphs shows the shape of the kernel density estimator.


(A)



(C)



(E)


(B)



(D)





- 113 -
193. The following claim data were generated from a Pareto distribution:

130 20 350 218 1822

Using the method of moments to estimate the parameters of a Pareto distribution, calculate
the limited expected value at 500.

(A) Less than 250

(B) At least 250, but less than 280

(C) At least 280, but less than 310

(D) At least 310, but less than 340

(E) At least 340

194. You are given:

Group Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Total
Total Claims 1 10,000 15,000 25,000
Number in Group 50 60 110
Average 200 250 227.27
Total Claims 2 16,000 18,000 34,000
Number in Group 100 90 190
Average 160 200 178.95
Total Claims 59,000
Number in Group 300
Average 196.67

You are also given a =651.03.
Use the nonparametric empirical Bayes method to estimate the credibility factor for
Group 1.

(A) 0.48

(B) 0.50

(C) 0.52

(D) 0.54
(E) 0.56
- 114 -
195. You are given the following information regarding claim sizes for 100 claims:

Claim Size Number of Claims
0 - 1,000 16
1,000 - 3,000 22
3,000 - 5,000 25
5,000 - 10,000 18
10,000 - 25,000 10
25,000 - 50,000 5
50,000 - 100,000 3
over 100,000 1


Use the ogive to estimate the probability that a randomly chosen claim is between 2,000 and
6,000.

(A) 0.36

(B) 0.40

(C) 0.45

(D) 0.47

(E) 0.50

196. You are given the following 20 bodily injury losses (before the deductible is applied):

Loss Number of
Losses
Deductible Policy Limit
750 3 200
200 3 0 10,000
300 4 0 20,000
>10,000 6 0 10,000
400 4 300

Past experience indicates that these losses follow a Pareto distribution with parameters
and 10,000 = .


Determine the maximum likelihood estimate of .
- 115 -
(A) Less than 2.0

(B) At least 2.0, but less than 3.0

(C) At least 3.0, but less than 4.0

(D) At least 4.0, but less than 5.0

(E) At least 5.0

197. You are given:

(i) During a 2-year period, 100 policies had the following claims experience:

Total Claims in
Years 1 and 2
Number of Policies
0 50
1 30
2 15
3 4
4 1

(ii) The number of claims per year follows a Poisson distribution.

(iii) Each policyholder was insured for the entire 2-year period.

A randomly selected policyholder had one claim over the 2-year period.


Using semiparametric empirical Bayes estimation, determine the Bhlmann estimate for the
number of claims in Year 3 for the same policyholder.


(A) 0.380

(B) 0.387

(C) 0.393

(D) 0.403

(E) 0.443

- 116 -
198. DELETED

199. Personal auto property damage claims in a certain region are known to follow the Weibull
distribution:
( )
( )
0.2
1 , 0
x
F x e x

= >

A sample of four claims is:

130 240 300 540

The values of two additional claims are known to exceed 1000.

Determine the maximum likelihood estimate of .

(A) Less than 300

(B) At least 300, but less than 1200

(C) At least 1200, but less than 2100

(D) At least 2100, but less than 3000

(E) At least 3000

200. For five types of risks, you are given:

(i) The expected number of claims in a year for these risks ranges from 1.0 to 4.0.

(ii) The number of claims follows a Poisson distribution for each risk.

During Year 1, n claims are observed for a randomly selected risk.

For the same risk, both Bayes and Bhlmann credibility estimates of the number of claims in
Year 2 are calculated for n =0,1,2, ... ,9.

Which graph represents these estimates?


- 117 -

(A)

(B)
















(C)

(D)

















(E)














-118-
201. You test the hypothesis that a given set of data comes from a known distribution with
distribution function F(x). The following data were collected:

Interval
( )
i
F x
Number of
Observations
x <2 0.035 5
2 x <5 0.130 42
5 x <7 0.630 137
7 x <8 0.830 66
8 x 1.000 50
Total 300

where
i
x is the upper endpoint of each interval.

You test the hypothesis using the chi-square goodness-of-fit test.

Determine the result of the test.

(A) The hypothesis is not rejected at the 0.10 significance level.

(B) The hypothesis is rejected at the 0.10 significance level, but is not rejected at the
0.05 significance level.

(C) The hypothesis is rejected at the 0.05 significance level, but is not rejected at the
0.025 significance level.

(D) The hypothesis is rejected at the 0.025 significance level, but is not rejected at the
0.01 significance level.

(E) The hypothesis is rejected at the 0.01 significance level.


-119-
202. Unlimited claim severities for a warranty product follow the lognormal distribution with
parameters 5.6 = and 0.75 = .

You use simulation to generate severities.

The following are six uniform (0, 1) random numbers:

0.6179 0.4602 0.9452 0.0808 0.7881 0.4207


Using these numbers and the inversion method, calculate the average payment per claim
for a contract with a policy limit of 400.


(A) Less than 300

(B) At least 300, but less than 320

(C) At least 320, but less than 340

(D) At least 340, but less than 360

(E) At least 360

203. You are given:

(i) The annual number of claims on a given policy has the geometric distribution
with parameter .

(ii) One-third of the policies have =2, and the remaining two-thirds have =5.

A randomly selected policy had two claims in Year 1.

Calculate the Bayesian expected number of claims for the selected policy in Year 2.

(A) 3.4

(B) 3.6

(C) 3.8

(D) 4.0

(E) 4.2

-120-
204. The length of time, in years, that a person will remember an actuarial statistic is modeled
by an exponential distribution with mean
1
Y
. In a certain population, Y has a gamma
distribution with 2 = = .

Calculate the probability that a person drawn at random from this population will
remember an actuarial statistic less than
1
2
year.

(A) 0.125

(B) 0.250

(C) 0.500

(D) 0.750

(E) 0.875

205. In a CCRC, residents start each month in one of the following three states: Independent
Living (State #1), Temporarily in a Health Center (State #2) or Permanently in a Health
Center (State #3). Transitions between states occur at the end of the month.

If a resident receives physical therapy, the number of sessions that the resident receives in
a month has a geometric distribution with a mean which depends on the state in which the
resident begins the month. The numbers of sessions received are independent. The
number in each state at the beginning of a given month, the probability of needing
physical therapy in the month, and the mean number of sessions received for residents
receiving therapy are displayed in the following table:

State # Number in
state
Probability of
needing therapy
Mean number
of visits
1 400 0.2 2
2 300 0.5 15
3 200 0.3 9


Using the normal approximation for the aggregate distribution, calculate the probability
that more than 3000 physical therapy sessions will be required for the given month.

-121-
(A) 0.21

(B) 0.27

(C) 0.34

(D) 0.42

(E) 0.50

206. In a given week, the number of projects that require you to work overtime has a
geometric distribution with 2 = . For each project, the distribution of the number of
overtime hours in the week is the following:

x
( ) f x
5 0.2
10 0.3
20 0.5

The number of projects and number of overtime hours are independent. You will get
paid for overtime hours in excess of 15 hours in the week.

Calculate the expected number of overtime hours for which you will get paid in the week.

(A) 18.5

(B) 18.8

(C) 22.1

(D) 26.2

(E) 28.0

-122-
207. For an insurance:

(i) Losses have density function

( )
0.02 0 10
0 elsewhere
X
x x
f x
< <
=



(ii) The insurance has an ordinary deductible of 4 per loss.

(iii)
P
Y is the claim payment per payment random variable.

Calculate E
P
Y
(

.

(A) 2.9

(B) 3.0

(C) 3.2

(D) 3.3

(E) 3.4

208. An actuary has created a compound claims frequency model with the following
properties:

(i) The primary distribution is the negative binomial with probability generating
function

( ) ( )
2
1 3 1 P z z

= (

.

(ii) The secondary distribution is the Poisson with probability generating function

( )
( ) 1 z
P z e

= .

(iii) The probability of no claims equals 0.067.


Calculate .


-123-
(A) 0.1

(B) 0.4

(C) 1.6

(D) 2.7

(E) 3.1

209. In 2005 a risk has a two-parameter Pareto distribution with 2 = and 3000 = . In 2006
losses inflate by 20%.

An insurance on the risk has a deductible of 600 in each year.
i
P , the premium in year i,
equals 1.2 times the expected claims.

The risk is reinsured with a deductible that stays the same in each year.
i
R , the
reinsurance premium in year i, equals 1.1 times the expected reinsured claims.

2005
2005
0.55
R
P
=


Calculate
2006
2006
R
P
.

(A) 0.46

(B) 0.52

(C) 0.55

(D) 0.58

(E) 0.66

-124-
210. Each life within a group medical expense policy has loss amounts which follow a
compound Poisson process with 0.16 = . Given a loss, the probability that it is for
Disease 1 is
1
16
.

Loss amount distributions have the following parameters:


Mean per loss
Standard
Deviation per loss
Disease 1 5 50
Other diseases 10 20

Premiums for a group of 100 independent lives are set at a level such that the probability
(using the normal approximation to the distribution for aggregate losses) that aggregate
losses for the group will exceed aggregate premiums for the group is 0.24.

A vaccine which will eliminate Disease 1 and costs 0.15 per person has been discovered.

Define:
A =the aggregate premium assuming that no one obtains the vaccine, and
B =the aggregate premium assuming that everyone obtains the vaccine and the cost of
the vaccine is a covered loss.

Calculate A/B.

(A) 0.94

(B) 0.97

(C) 1.00

(D) 1.03

(E) 1.06


-125-
211. An actuary for a medical device manufacturer initially models the failure time for a
particular device with an exponential distribution with mean 4 years.

This distribution is replaced with a spliced model whose density function:

(i) is uniform over [0, 3]

(ii) is proportional to the initial modeled density function after 3 years

(iii) is continuous

Calculate the probability of failure in the first 3 years under the revised distribution.

(A) 0.43

(B) 0.45

(C) 0.47

(D) 0.49

(E) 0.51

212. For an insurance:

(i) The number of losses per year has a Poisson distribution with 10 = .

(ii) Loss amounts are uniformly distributed on (0, 10).

(iii) Loss amounts and the number of losses are mutually independent.

(iv) There is an ordinary deductible of 4 per loss.

Calculate the variance of aggregate payments in a year.

(A) 36

(B) 48

(C) 72

(D) 96

(E) 120
-126-
213. For an insurance portfolio:

(i) The number of claims has the probability distribution

n
n
p
0 0.1
1 0.4
2 0.3
3 0.2

(ii) Each claim amount has a Poisson distribution with mean 3; and

(iii) The number of claims and claim amounts are mutually independent.


Calculate the variance of aggregate claims.

(A) 4.8

(B) 6.4

(C) 8.0

(D) 10.2

(E) 12.4


214. A portfolio of policies has produced the following claims:

100 100 100 200 300 300 300 400 500 600

Determine the empirical estimate of H(300).

(A) Less than 0.50

(B) At least 0.50, but less than 0.75

(C) At least 0.75, but less than 1.00

(D) At least 1.00, but less than 1.25

(E) At least 1.25

-127-

215. You are given:

(i) The conditional distribution of the number of claims per policyholder is Poisson
with mean .

(ii) The variable has a gamma distribution with parameters and .

(iii) For policyholders with 1 claim in Year 1, the credibility estimate for the number
of claims in Year 2 is 0.15.

(iv) For policyholders with an average of 2 claims per year in Year 1 and Year 2, the
credibility estimate for the number of claims in Year 3 is 0.20.

Determine .

(A) Less than 0.02

(B) At least 0.02, but less than 0.03

(C) At least 0.03, but less than 0.04

(D) At least 0.04, but less than 0.05

(E) At least 0.05

216. A random sample of claims has been drawn from a Burr distribution with known
parameter
=1 and unknown parameters and . You are given:

(i) 75% of the claim amounts in the sample exceed 100.

(ii) 25% of the claim amounts in the sample exceed 500.

Estimate by percentile matching.


(A) Less than 190

(B) At least 190, but less than 200

(C) At least 200, but less than 210

(D) At least 210, but less than 220

-128-
(E) At least 220
217. For a portfolio of policies, you are given:

(i) There is no deductible and the policy limit varies by policy.

(ii) A sample of ten claims is:

350 350 500 500 500
+
1000 1000
+
1000
+
1200 1500

where the symbol +indicates that the loss exceeds the policy limit.

(iii)
^
1
(1250) S is the product-limit estimate of S(1250).

(iv)
^
2
(1250) S is the maximum likelihood estimate of S(1250) under the assumption
that the losses follow an exponential distribution.

Determine the absolute difference between
^
1
(1250) S and
^
2
(1250) S .

(A) 0.00

(B) 0.03

(C) 0.05

(D) 0.07

(E) 0.09

218. The random variable X has survival function:

( )
( )
4
2
2 2
X
S x
x

=
+


Two values of X are observed to be 2 and 4. One other value exceeds 4.


Calculate the maximum likelihood estimate of .


-129-
(A) Less than 4.0

(B) At least 4.0, but less than 4.5

(C) At least 4.5, but less than 5.0

(D) At least 5.0, but less than 5.5

(E) At least 5.5

219. For a portfolio of policies, you are given:

(i) The annual claim amount on a policy has probability density function:

2
2
( | ) , 0
x
f x x

= < <

(ii) The prior distribution of has density function:

3
( ) 4 , 0 1 = < <

(iii) A randomly selected policy had claim amount 0.1 in Year 1.


Determine the Bhlmann credibility estimate of the claim amount for the selected policy
in Year 2.

(A) 0.43

(B) 0.45

(C) 0.50

(D) 0.53

(E) 0.56

-130-
220. Total losses for a group of insured motorcyclists are simulated using the aggregate loss
model and the inversion method.

The number of claims has a Poisson distribution with 4 = . The amount of each claim
has an exponential distribution with mean 1000.

The number of claims is simulated using 0.13 u = . The claim amounts are simulated
using
1
0.05 u = ,
2
0.95 u = and
3
0.10 u = in that order, as needed.

Determine the total losses.

(A) 0

(B) 51

(C) 2996

(D) 3047

(E) 3152

221. You are given:

(i) The sample:

1 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

(ii) ) (

1
x F is the kernel density estimator of the distribution function using a uniform
kernel with bandwidth 1.

(iii) ) (

2
x F is the kernel density estimator of the distribution function using a
triangular kernel with bandwidth 1.

Determine which of the following intervals has ) (

1
x F = ) (

2
x F for all x in the interval.

(A) 1 0 < < x

(B) 2 1 < < x

(C) 3 2 < < x

(D) 4 3 < < x

(E) None of (A), (B), (C) or (D)
-131-
222. 1000 workers insured under a workers compensation policy were observed for one year.
The number of work days missed is given below:

Number of Days of Work
Missed
Number of Workers
0 818
1 153
2 25
3 or more 4
Total 1000
Total Number of Days Missed 230

The chi-square goodness-of-fit test is used to test the hypothesis that the number of work
days missed follows a Poisson distribution where:

(i) The Poisson parameter is estimated by the average number of work days missed.

(ii) Any interval in which the expected number is less than one is combined with the
previous interval.


Determine the results of the test.

(A) The hypothesis is not rejected at the 0.10 significance level.

(B) The hypothesis is rejected at the 0.10 significance level, but is not rejected at the
0.05 significance level.

(C) The hypothesis is rejected at the 0.05 significance level, but is not rejected at the
0.025 significance level.

(D) The hypothesis is rejected at the 0.025 significance level, but is not rejected at the
0.01 significance level.

(E) The hypothesis is rejected at the 0.01 significance level.

-132-
223. You are given the following data:

Year 1 Year 2
Total Losses 12,000 14,000
Number of Policyholders 25 30

The estimate of the variance of the hypothetical means is 254.

Determine the credibility factor for Year 3 using the nonparametric empirical Bayes
method.

(A) Less than 0.73

(B) At least 0.73, but less than 0.78

(C) At least 0.78, but less than 0.83

(D) At least 0.83, but less than 0.88

(E) At least 0.88

224. DELETED

-133-
225. You are given:

(i) Fifty claims have been observed from a lognormal distribution with unknown
parameters and .

(ii) The maximum likelihood estimates are

.

. = = 684 149 and .

(iii) The covariance matrix of and is:

00444 0
0 00222
.
.
L
N
M
O
Q
P


(iv) The partial derivatives of the lognormal cumulative distribution function are:

( ) z F


=

and

=
F z z

b g


(v) An approximate 95% confidence interval for the probability that the next claim
will be less than or equal to 5000 is:
[P
L
, P
H
]


Determine
L
P .

(A) 0.73

(B) 0.76

(C) 0.79

(D) 0.82

(E) 0.85

-134-
226. For a particular policy, the conditional probability of the annual number of claims given
= , and the probability distribution of are as follows:

Number of Claims 0 1 2
Probability 2 1 3

0.10 0.30
Probability 0.80 0.20

One claim was observed in Year 1.

Calculate the Bayesian estimate of the expected number of claims for Year 2.


(A) Less than 1.1

(B) At least 1.1, but less than 1.2

(C) At least 1.2, but less than 1.3

(D) At least 1.3, but less than 1.4

(E) At least 1.4

227. You simulate observations from a specific distribution F(x), such that the number of
simulations N is sufficiently large to be at least 95 percent confident of estimating
F(1500) correctly within 1 percent.

Let P represent the number of simulated values less than 1500.

Determine which of the following could be values of N and P.


(A) N =2000 P =1890

(B) N =3000 P =2500

(C) N =3500 P =3100

(D) N =4000 P =3630

(E) N =4500 P =4020

-135-
228. For a survival study, you are given:

(i) Deaths occurred at times
9 2 1
y y y < < < .

(ii) The Nelson-Aalen estimates of the cumulative hazard function at
3
y and
4
y are:
^ ^
3 4
( ) 0.4128 and ( ) 0.5691 H y H y = =

(iii) The estimated variances of the estimates in (ii) are:

^
3
Var[ ( )] 0.009565 H y =

and
^
4
Var[ ( )] 0.014448 H y =



Determine the number of deaths at
4
y .

(A) 2

(B) 3

(C) 4

(D) 5

(E) 6



229. A random sample of size n is drawn from a distribution with probability density function:

2
( ) , 0 , 0
( )
f x x
x

= < < >


+


Determine the asymptotic variance of the maximum likelihood estimator of .

-136-
(A)
n
2
3


(B)
2
3
1
n


(C)
2
3
n


(D)
2
3
n



(E)
2
3
1



230. For a portfolio of independent risks, the number of claims for each risk in a year follows
a Poisson distribution with means given in the following table:

Class
Mean Number of
Claims per Risk Number of Risks
1 1 900
2 10 90
3 20 10

You observe x claims in Year 1 for a randomly selected risk.

The Bhlmann credibility estimate of the number of claims for the same risk in Year 2 is
11.983.

Determine x.

(A) 13

(B) 14

(C) 15

(D) 16

(E) 17
-137-
231. A survival study gave (0.283, 1.267) as the symmetric linear 95% confidence interval
for H(5).


Using the delta method, determine the symmetric linear 95% confidence interval for S(5).

(A) (0.23, 0.69)

(B) (0.26, 0.72)

(C) (0.28, 0.75)

(D) (0.31, 0.73)

(E) (0.32, 0.80)

232. You are given:

(i) Losses on a certain warranty product in Year i follow a lognormal distribution
with parameters
i
and
i
.

(ii)
i
= , for i =1, 2, 3,

(iii) The parameters
i
vary in such a way that there is an annual inflation rate of 10%
for losses.

(iv) The following is a sample of seven losses:

Year 1: 20 40 50
Year 2: 30 40 90 120

Using trended losses, determine the method of moments estimate of
3
.

(A) 3.87

(B) 4.00

(C) 30.00

(D) 55.71

(E) 63.01
-138-
233. You are given:

(i) A region is comprised of three territories. Claims experience for Year 1 is as
follows:
Territory Number of Insureds Number of Claims
A 10 4
B 20 5
C 30 3

(ii) The number of claims for each insured each year has a Poisson distribution.

(iii) Each insured in a territory has the same expected claim frequency.

(iv) The number of insureds is constant over time for each territory.

Determine the Bhlmann-Straub empirical Bayes estimate of the credibility factor Z for
Territory A.

(A) Less than 0.4

(B) At least 0.4, but less than 0.5

(C) At least 0.5, but less than 0.6

(D) At least 0.6, but less than 0.7

(E) At least 0.7

234. DELETED

235. You are given:

(i) A random sample of losses from a Weibull distribution is:

595 700 789 799 1109

(ii) At the maximum likelihood estimates of and , ( ) ( )
ln 33.05
i
f x =

.

(iii) When 2 = , the maximum likelihood estimate of is 816.7.

(iv) You use the likelihood ratio test to test the hypothesis
0
: 2 H =
1
: 2 H
Determine the result of the test.
-139-
(A) Do not reject
0
H at the 0.10 level of significance.

(B) Reject
0
H at the 0.10 level of significance, but not at the 0.05 level of
significance.

(C) Reject
0
H at the 0.05 level of significance, but not at the 0.025 level of
significance.

(D) Reject
0
H at the 0.025 level of significance, but not at the 0.01 level of
significance.

(E) Reject
0
H at the 0.01 level of significance.

236. For each policyholder, losses X
1
,, X
n
, conditional on , are independently and
identically distributed with mean,

( ) ( )
E , 1,2,...,
j
X j n = = =

and variance,

( ) ( )
Var , 1,2,...,
j
v X j n = = = .

You are given:

(i) The Bhlmann credibility assigned for estimating X
5
based on X
1
,, X
4
is
Z =0.4.

(ii) The expected value of the process variance is known to be 8.

Calculate
( )
Cov ,
i j
X X , i j .

(A) Less than 0.5

(B) At least 0.5 , but less than 0.5

(C) At least 0.5, but less than 1.5

(D) At least 1.5, but less than 2.5

(E) At least 2.5
-140-
237. Losses for a warranty product follow the lognormal distribution with underlying normal
mean and standard deviation of 5.6 and 0.75 respectively.

You use simulation to estimate claim payments for a number of contracts with different
deductibles.

The following are four uniform (0,1) random numbers:

0.6217 0.9941 0.8686 0.0485

Using these numbers and the inversion method, calculate the average payment per loss
for a contract with a deductible of 100.

(A) Less than 630

(B) At least 630, but less than 680

(C) At least 680, but less than 730

(D) At least 730, but less than 780

(E) At least 780

238. The random variable X has the exponential distribution with mean .

Calculate the mean-squared error of
2
X as an estimator of
2
.

(A) 20
4


(B) 21
4


(C) 22
4


(D) 23
4


(E) 24
4


-141-
239. You are given the following data for the number of claims during a one-year period:

Number of Claims Number of Policies
0 157
1 66
2 19
3 4
4 2
5+ 0
Total 248

A geometric distribution is fitted to the data using maximum likelihood estimation.
Let P =probability of zero claims using the fitted geometric model.

A Poisson distribution is fitted to the data using the method of moments.
Let Q =probability of zero claims using the fitted Poisson model.

Calculate P Q .

(A) 0.00

(B) 0.03

(C) 0.06

(D) 0.09

(E) 0.12


-142-
240. For a group of auto policyholders, you are given:

(i) The number of claims for each policyholder has a conditional Poisson
distribution.

(ii) During Year 1, the following data are observed for 8000 policyholders:

Number of Claims Number of Policyholders
0 5000
1 2100
2 750
3 100
4 50
5+ 0

A randomly selected policyholder had one claim in Year 1.

Determine the semiparametric empirical Bayes estimate of the number of claims in
Year 2 for the same policyholder.

(A) Less than 0.15

(B) At least 0.15, but less than 0.30

(C) At least 0.30, but less than 0.45

(D) At least 0.45, but less than 0.60

(E) At least 0.60

241. You are given:

(i) The following are observed claim amounts:

400 1000 1600 3000 5000 5400 6200

(ii) An exponential distribution with 3300 = is hypothesized for the data.

(iii) The goodness of fit is to be assessed by a p-p plot and a D(x) plot.

Let (s, t) be the coordinates of the p-p plot for a claim amount of 3000.

Determine ( ) ( ) 3000 s t D .
-143-
(A) 0.12

(B) 0.07

(C) 0.00

(D) 0.07

(E) 0.12

242. You are given:

(i) In a portfolio of risks, each policyholder can have at most two claims per year.

(ii) For each year, the distribution of the number of claims is:

Number of Claims Probability
0 0.10
1 0.90 q
2
q

(iii) The prior density is:

2
( ) , 0.2 0.5
0.039
q
q q = < <

A randomly selected policyholder had two claims in Year 1 and two claims in Year 2.
For this insured, determine the Bayesian estimate of the expected number of claims in
Year 3.

(A) Less than 1.30

(B) At least 1.30, but less than 1.40

(C) At least 1.40, but less than 1.50

(D) At least 1.50, but less than 1.60

(E) At least 1.60


-144-
243. For 500 claims, you are given the following distribution:

Claim Size Number of Claims
[0, 500) 200
[500, 1,000) 110
[1,000, 2,000) x
[2,000, 5,000) y
[5,000, 10,000) ?
[10,000, 25,000) ?
[25,000, ) ?

You are also given the following values taken from the ogive:

F
500
(1500) =0.689
F
500
(3500) =0.839

Determine y.

(A) Less than 65

(B) At least 65, but less than 70

(C) At least 70, but less than 75

(D) At least 75, but less than 80

(E) At least 80

244. Which of statements (A), (B), (C), and (D) is false?

(A) The chi-square goodness-of-fit test works best when the expected number of
observations varies widely from interval to interval.

(B) For the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, when the parameters of the distribution in the
null hypothesis are estimated from the data, the probability of rejecting the null
hypothesis decreases.

(C) For the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, the critical value for right censored data should
be smaller than the critical value for uncensored data.

(D) The Anderson-Darling test does not work for grouped data.

(E) None of (A), (B), (C) or (D) is false.
-145-
245. You are given:

(i) The number of claims follows a Poisson distribution.

(ii) Claim sizes follow a gamma distribution with parameters (unknown) and
000 , 10 = .

(iii) The number of claims and claim sizes are independent.

(iv) The full credibility standard has been selected so that actual aggregate losses will
be within 10% of expected aggregate losses 95% of the time.

Using limited fluctuation (classical) credibility, determine the expected number of claims
required for full credibility.

(A) Less than 400

(B) At least 400, but less than 450

(C) At least 450, but less than 500

(D) At least 500

(E) The expected number of claims required for full credibility cannot be determined
from the information given.

246. You are given:
(i) Losses follow a Burr distribution with =2.

(ii) A random sample of 15 losses is:

195 255 270 280 350 360 365 380 415 450 490 550 575 590 615

(iii) The parameters and are estimated by percentile matching using the smoothed
empirical estimates of the 30
th
and 65
th
percentiles.

Calculate the estimate of .

-146-
(A) Less than 2.9

(B) At least 2.9, but less than 3.2

(C) At least 3.2, but less than 3.5

(D) At least 3.5, but less than 3.8

(E) At least 3.8

247. An insurance company sells three types of policies with the following characteristics:

Type of Policy Proportion of Total
Policies
Annual Claim Frequency
I 5% Poisson with 0.25 =
II 20% Poisson with 0.50 =
III 75% Poisson with 1.00 =

A randomly selected policyholder is observed to have a total of one claim for Year 1
through
Year 4.

For the same policyholder, determine the Bayesian estimate of the expected number of
claims in Year 5.

(A) Less than 0.4

(B) At least 0.4, but less than 0.5

(C) At least 0.5, but less than 0.6

(D) At least 0.6, but less than 0.7

(E) At least 0.7

248. You are given a random sample of 10 claims consisting of two claims of 400, seven
claims of 800, and one claim of 1600.


Determine the empirical skewness coefficient.


-147-
(A) Less than 1.0

(B) At least 1.0, but less than 1.5

(C) At least 1.5, but less than 2.0

(D) At least 2.0, but less than 2.5

(E) At least 2.5

249. You are given:

(i) The cumulative distribution for the annual number of losses for a policyholder is:

n
( )
N
F n
0 0.125
1 0.312
2 0.500
3 0.656
4 0.773
5 0.855


(ii) The loss amounts follow the Weibull distribution with =200 and =2.

(iii) There is a deductible of 150 for each claim subject to an annual maximum out-of-
pocket of 500 per policy.

The inversion method is used to simulate the number of losses and loss amounts for a
policyholder.

(a) For the number of losses use the random number 0.7654.

(b) For loss amounts use the random numbers:

0.2738 0.5152 0.7537 0.6481 0.3153

Use the random numbers in order and only as needed.


Based on the simulation, calculate the insurers aggregate payments for this policyholder.


-148-
(A) 106.93

(B) 161.32

(C) 224.44

(D) 347.53

(E) 520.05

250. You have observed the following three loss amounts:

186 91 66

Seven other amounts are known to be less than or equal to 60. Losses follow an inverse
exponential with distribution function

( )
/
, 0
x
F x e x

= >

Calculate the maximum likelihood estimate of the population mode.

(A) Less than 11

(B) At least 11, but less than 16

(C) At least 16, but less than 21

(D) At least 21, but less than 26

(E) At least 26


-149-
251. For a group of policies, you are given:

(i) The annual loss on an individual policy follows a gamma distribution with
parameters
=4 and .

(ii) The prior distribution of has mean 600.

(iii) A randomly selected policy had losses of 1400 in Year 1 and 1900 in Year 2.

(iv) Loss data for Year 3 was misfiled and unavailable.

(v) Based on the data in (iii), the Bhlmann credibility estimate of the loss on the
selected policy in Year 4 is 1800.

(vi) After the estimate in (v) was calculated, the data for Year 3 was located. The loss
on the selected policy in Year 3 was 2763.

Calculate the Bhlmann credibility estimate of the loss on the selected policy in Year 4
based on the data for Years 1, 2 and 3.

(A) Less than 1850

(B) At least 1850, but less than 1950

(C) At least 1950, but less than 2050

(D) At least 2050, but less than 2150

(E) At least 2150


252. The following is a sample of 10 payments:

4 4 5
+
5
+
5
+
8 10
+
10
+
12 15

where +indicates that a loss exceeded the policy limit.


Determine Greenwoods approximation to the variance of the product-limit estimate
S

(11).


-150-
(A) 0.016

(B) 0.031

(C) 0.048

(D) 0.064

(E) 0.075

253. You are given:

(i) For Q =q,
1 2
, , ,
m
X X X are independent, identically distributed Bernoulli
random variables with parameter q.

(ii)
1 2 m m
S X X X = + + +

(iii) The prior distribution of Q is beta with 1, 99, a b = = and 1 = .

Determine the smallest value of m such that the mean of the marginal distribution of
m
S
is greater than or equal to 50.

(A) 1082

(B) 2164

(C) 3246

(D) 4950

(E) 5000
-151-
254. You are given:

(i) A portfolio consists of 100 identically and independently distributed risks.

(ii) The number of claims for each risk follows a Poisson distribution with mean .

(iii) The prior distribution of is:


4 50
(50 )
( ) , 0
6
e


= >

During Year 1, the following loss experience is observed:

Number of Claims Number of Risks
0 90
1 7
2 2
3 1
Total 100

Determine the Bayesian expected number of claims for the portfolio in Year 2.

(A) 8

(B) 10

(C) 11

(D) 12

(E) 14

255. You are planning a simulation to estimate the mean of a non-negative random variable. It
is known that the population standard deviation is 20% larger than the population mean.


Use the central limit theorem to estimate the smallest number of trials needed so that you
will be at least 95% confident that the simulated mean is within 5% of the population
mean.


-152-
(A) 944

(B) 1299

(C) 1559

(D) 1844

(E) 2213

256. You are given:

(i) The distribution of the number of claims per policy during a one-year period for
10,000 insurance policies is:

Number of Claims per Policy Number of Policies
0 5000
1 5000
2 or more 0

(ii) You fit a binomial model with parameters m and q using the method of maximum
likelihood.

Determine the maximum value of the loglikelihood function when m =2.

(A) 10,397

(B) 7,781

(C) 7,750

(D) 6,931

(E) 6,730

-153-
257. You are given:

(i) Over a three-year period, the following claim experience was observed for two
insureds who own delivery vans:

Year
Insured 1 2 3
A Number of Vehicles 2 2 1
Number of Claims 1 1 0
B Number of Vehicles N/A 3 2
Number of Claims N/A 2 3

(ii) The number of claims for each insured each year follows a Poisson distribution.

Determine the semiparametric empirical Bayes estimate of the claim frequency per
vehicle for Insured A in Year 4.

(A) Less than 0.55

(B) At least 0.55, but less than 0.60

(C) At least 0.60, but less than 0.65

(D) At least 0.65, but less than 0.70

(E) At least 0.70

258. For the data set

200 300 100 400 X

you are given:

(i) k =4

(ii)
2
s =1

(iii)
4
r =1

(iv) The Nelson-alen Estimate

(410) H >2.15


Determine X.

-154-
(A) 100

(B) 200

(C) 300

(D) 400

(E) 500

259. You are given:

(i) A hospital liability policy has experienced the following numbers of claims over a
10-year period:

10 2 4 0 6 2 4 5 4 2

(ii) Numbers of claims are independent from year to year.

(iii) You use the method of maximum likelihood to fit a Poisson model.

Determine the estimated coefficient of variation of the estimator of the Poisson
parameter.

(A) 0.10

(B) 0.16

(C) 0.22

(D) 0.26

(E) 1.00

260. You are given:

(i) Claim sizes follow an exponential distribution with mean .

(ii) For 80% of the policies, =8.

(iii) For 20% of the policies, 2 = .

A randomly selected policy had one claim in Year 1 of size 5.

Calculate the Bayesian expected claim size for this policy in Year 2.
-155-

(A) Less than 5.8

(B) At least 5.8, but less than 6.2

(C) At least 6.2, but less than 6.6

(D) At least 6.6, but less than 7.0

(E) At least 7.0


261. DELETED

262. You are given:

(i) At time 4 hours, there are 5 working light bulbs.

(ii) The 5 bulbs are observed for p more hours.

(iii) Three light bulbs burn out at times 5, 9, and 13 hours, while the remaining light
bulbs are still working at time 4 +p hours.

(iv) The distribution of failure times is uniform on ( ) 0, .

(v) The maximum likelihood estimate of is 29.

Determine p.

(A) Less than 10

(B) At least 10, but less than 12

(C) At least 12, but less than 14

(D) At least 14, but less than 16

(E) At least 16


-156-
263. You are given:

(i) The number of claims incurred in a month by any insured follows a Poisson
distribution with mean .

(ii) The claim frequencies of different insureds are independent.

(iii) The prior distribution of is Weibull with 0.1 = and 2 = .

(iv) Some values of the gamma function are

( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 0.5 1.77245, 1 1, 1.5 0.88623, 2 1 = = = =

(v)
Month Number of Insureds Number of Claims
1 100 10
2 150 11
3 250 14


Determine the Bhlmann-Straub credibility estimate of the number of claims in the next
12 months for 300 insureds.

(A) Less than 255

(B) At least 255, but less than 275

(C) At least 275, but less than 295

(D) At least 295, but less than 315

(E) At least 315


-157-
264. You are given:

(i) The following data set:

2500 2500 2500 3617 3662 4517 5000 5000 6010 6932 7500 7500

(ii)
^
1
(7000) H is the Nelson-alen estimate of the cumulative hazard rate function
calculated under the assumption that all of the observations in (i) are uncensored.

(iii)
^
2
(7000) H is the Nelson-alen estimate of the cumulative hazard rate function
calculated under the assumption that all occurrences of the values 2500, 5000 and
7500 in (i) reflect right-censored observations and that the remaining observed
values are uncensored.

Calculate|
^ ^
1 2
(7000) (7000) H H |.

(A) Less than 0.1

(B) At least 0.1, but less than 0.3

(C) At least 0.3, but less than 0.5

(D) At least 0.5, but less than 0.7

(E) At least 0.7

-158-
265. For a warranty product you are given:

(i) Paid losses follow the lognormal distribution with 13.294 = and 0.494 = .

(ii) The ratio of estimated unpaid losses to paid losses, y, is modeled by

0.851 0.747
0.801
x
y x e

=
where

x =2006 contract purchase year

The inversion method is used to simulate four paid losses with the following four uniform
(0,1) random numbers:

0.2877 0.1210 0.8238 0.6179


Using the simulated values, calculate the empirical estimate of the average unpaid losses
for purchase year 2005.

(A) Less than 300,000

(B) At least 300,000, but less than 400,000

(C) At least 400,000, but less than 500,000

(D) At least 500,000, but less than 600,000

(E) At least 600,000

266. Five models are fitted to a sample of n =260 observations with the following results:

Model Number of Parameters Loglikelihood
I 1 414
II 2 412
III 3 411
IV 4 409
V 6 409


Determine the model favored by the Schwarz Bayesian criterion.


-159-
(A) I

(B) II

(C) III

(D) IV

(E) V

267. You are given:

(i) The annual number of claims for an individual risk follows a Poisson distribution
with mean .

(ii) For 75% of the risks, 1 = .

(iii) For 25% of the risks, 3 = .

A randomly selected risk hadr claims in Year 1. The Bayesian estimate of this risks
expected number of claims in Year 2 is 2.98.

Determine the Bhlmann credibility estimate of the expected number of claims for this
risk in Year 2.

(A) Less than 1.9

(B) At least 1.9, but less than 2.3

(C) At least 2.3, but less than 2.7

(D) At least 2.7, but less than 3.1

(E) At least 3.1


268. You are given the following ages at time of death for 10 individuals:

25 30 35 35 37 39 45 47 49 55


Using a uniform kernel with bandwidth b =10, determine the kernel density estimate of
the probability of survival to age 40.


-160-
(A) 0.377

(B) 0.400

(C) 0.417

(D) 0.439

(E) 0.485

269. The random variables
1 2
, , ,
n
X X X are independent and identically distributed with
probability density function

/
( ) , 0
x
e
f x x

=

Determine
2
E X
(

.

(A)
2
1 n
n

+ | |
|
\ .


(B)
2
2
1 n
n

+ | |
|
\ .


(C)
2
n



(D)
2
n



(E)
2


270. Three individual policyholders have the following claim amounts over four years:

Policyholder Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
X 2 3 3 4
Y 5 5 4 6
Z 5 5 3 3


Using the nonparametric empirical Bayes procedure, calculate the estimated variance of
the hypothetical means.
-161-
(A) Less than 0.40

(B) At least 0.40, but less than 0.60

(C) At least 0.60, but less than 0.80

(D) At least 0.80, but less than 1.00

(E) At least 1.00

271. DELETED

272. You are given:

(i) The number of claims made by an individual in any given year has a binomial
distribution with parameters m =4 and q.

(ii) The prior distribution of q has probability density function

( ) 6 (1 ), 0 1 q q q q = < < .

(iii) Two claims are made in a given year.

Determine the mode of the posterior distribution of q.

(A) 0.17

(B) 0.33

(C) 0.50

(D) 0.67

(E) 0.83
-162-
273. A company has determined that the limited fluctuation full credibility standard is 2000
claims if:

(i) The total number of claims is to be within 3% of the true value with probability p.

(ii) The number of claims follows a Poisson distribution.

The standard is changed so that the total cost of claims is to be within 5% of the true
value with probability p, where claim severity has probability density function:

( )
1
10,000
f x = , 0 000 , 10 x

Using limited fluctuation credibility, determine the expected number of claims necessary
to obtain full credibility under the new standard.

(A) 720

(B) 960

(C) 2160

(D) 2667

(E) 2880

274. For a mortality study with right censored data, you are given the following:

Time Number of Deaths Number at Risk
3 1 50
5 3 49
6 5 k
10 7 21


You are also told that the Nelson-alen estimate of the survival function at time 10 is
0.575.

Determine k.

-163-
(A) 28

(B) 31

(C) 36

(D) 44

(E) 46

275. A dental benefit is designed so that a deductible of 100 is applied to annual dental
charges.
The reimbursement to the insured is 80% of the remaining dental charges subject to an
annual maximum reimbursement of 1000.

You are given:

(i) The annual dental charges for each insured are exponentially distributed with
mean 1000.

(ii) Use the following uniform (0, 1) random numbers and the inversion method to
generate four values of annual dental charges:

0.30 0.92 0.70 0.08

Calculate the average annual reimbursement for this simulation.

(A) 522

(B) 696

(C) 757

(D) 947

(E) 1042


-164-
276. For a group of policies, you are given:

(i) Losses follow the distribution function

( ) 1 / , F x x x = < < .

(ii) A sample of 20 losses resulted in the following:

Interval Number of Losses
10 x 9
10 25 x < 6
25 x > 5


Calculate the maximum likelihood estimate of .


(A) 5.00

(B) 5.50

(C) 5.75

(D) 6.00

(E) 6.25

277. You are given:

(i) Loss payments for a group health policy follow an exponential distribution with
unknown mean.

(ii) A sample of losses is:

100 200 400 800 1400 3100

Use the delta method to approximate the variance of the maximum likelihood estimator
of
( ) 1500 . S

-165-
(A) 0.019

(B) 0.025

(C) 0.032

(D) 0.039

(E) 0.045

278. You are given:

(i) A random sample of payments from a portfolio of policies resulted in the
following:

Interval Number of Policies
(0, 50] 36
(50, 150] x
(150, 250] y
(250, 500] 84
(500, 1000] 80
(1000, ) 0
Total n

(ii) Two values of the ogive constructed from the data in (i) are:

( ) 90 0.21,
n
F = and ( ) 210 0.51
n
F =

Calculate x.

(A) 120

(B) 145

(C) 170

(D) 195

(E) 220

-166-
279. Loss amounts have the distribution function

( )
( )
2
/100 , 0 100
1 , 100
x x
F x
x


=

<



An insurance pays 80% of the amount of the loss in excess of an ordinary deductible of
20, subject to a maximum payment of 60 per loss.

Calculate the conditional expected claim payment, given that a payment has been made.

(A) 37

(B) 39

(C) 43

(D) 47

(E) 49

280. A compound Poisson claim distribution has 5 = and individual claim amounts
distributed as follows:

x

( )
X
f x

5 0.6
k 0.4 where 5 k >

The expected cost of an aggregate stop-loss insurance subject to a deductible of 5 is
28.03.

Calculate k.

(A) 6

(B) 7

(C) 8

(D) 9

(E) 10
-167-
281. For a special investment product, you are given:

(i) All deposits are credited with 75% of the annual equity index return, subject to a
minimum guaranteed crediting rate of 3%.

(ii) The annual equity index return is normally distributed with a mean of 8% and a
standard deviation of 16%.

(iii) For a random variable X which has a normal distribution with mean and
standard deviation , you are given the following limited expected values:

| | 3% E X
6% = 8% =
12% = 0.43% 0.31%
16% = 1.99% 1.19%

| | 4% E X
6% = 8% =
12% = 0.15% 0.95%
16% = 1.43% 0.58%


Calculate the expected annual crediting rate.

(A) 8.9%

(B) 9.4%

(C) 10.7%

(D) 11.0%

(E) 11.6%

-168-
282. Aggregate losses are modeled as follows:

(i) The number of losses has a Poisson distribution with 3 = .

(ii) The amount of each loss has a Burr (Burr Type XII, Singh-Maddala) distribution
with 3, 2 = = , and 1 = .

(iii) The number of losses and the amounts of the losses are mutually independent.

Calculate the variance of aggregate losses.

(A) 12

(B) 14

(C) 16

(D) 18

(E) 20

283. The annual number of doctor visits for each individual in a family of 4 has a geometric
distribution with mean 1.5. The annual numbers of visits for the family members are
mutually independent. An insurance pays 100 per doctor visit beginning with the 4
th
visit
per family.

Calculate the expected payments per year for this family.

(A) 320

(B) 323

(C) 326

(D) 329

(E) 332

-169-
284. A risk has a loss amount which has a Poisson distribution with mean 3.

An insurance covers the risk with an ordinary deductible of 2. An alternative insurance
replaces the deductible with coinsurance , which is the proportion of the loss paid by
the insurance, so that the expected insurance cost remains the same.

Calculate .

(A) 0.22

(B) 0.27

(C) 0.32

(D) 0.37

(E) 0.42

285. You are the producer for the television show Actuarial Idol. Each year, 1000 actuarial
clubs audition for the show. The probability of a club being accepted is 0.20.

The number of members of an accepted club has a distribution with mean 20 and
variance 20. Club acceptances and the numbers of club members are mutually
independent.

Your annual budget for persons appearing on the show equals 10 times the expected
number of persons plus 10 times the standard deviation of the number of persons.

Calculate your annual budget for persons appearing on the show.

(A) 42,600

(B) 44,200

(C) 45,800

(D) 47,400

(E) 49,000


-170-
286. Michael is a professional stuntman who performs dangerous motorcycle jumps at
extreme sports events around the world.

The annual cost of repairs to his motorcycle is modeled by a two parameter Pareto
distribution with 5000 = and 2 = .

An insurance reimburses Michaels motorcycle repair costs subject to the following
provisions:

(i) Michael pays an annual ordinary deductible of 1000 each year.

(ii) Michael pays 20% of repair costs between 1000 and 6000 each year.

(iii) Michael pays 100% of the annual repair costs above 6000 until Michael has paid
10,000 in out-of-pocket repair costs each year.

(iv) Michael pays 10% of the remaining repair costs each year.

Calculate the expected annual insurance reimbursement.

(A) 2300

(B) 2500

(C) 2700

(D) 2900

(E) 3100

287. For an aggregate loss distribution S:

(i) The number of claims has a negative binomial distribution with r =16 and 6 = .

(ii) The claim amounts are uniformly distributed on the interval (0, 8).

(iii) The number of claims and claim amounts are mutually independent.


Using the normal approximation for aggregate losses, calculate the premium such that the
probability that aggregate losses will exceed the premium is 5%.


-171-
(A) 500

(B) 520

(C) 540

(D) 560

(E) 580

288. The random variable N has a mixed distribution:

(i) With probability p, N has a binomial distribution with 0.5 q = and 2 m = .

(ii) With probability 1 p , N has a binomial distribution with 0.5 q = and 4 m = .


Which of the following is a correct expression for ( ) Prob 2 N = ?

(A)
2
0.125p

(B) 0.375 0.125p +

(C)
2
0.375 0.125p +

(D)
2
0.375 0.125p

(E) 0.375 0.125p

289. A compound Poisson distribution has 5 = and claim amount distribution as follows:

x

( ) p x
100 0.80
500 0.16
1000 0.04


Calculate the probability that aggregate claims will be exactly 600.


-172-
(A) 0.022

(B) 0.038

(C) 0.049

(D) 0.060

(E) 0.070

290. A random variable X has a two-point mixture distribution with pdf
/2 /3
1 1
( ) , 0
8 4
x x
f x e e x

= + .
You are to simulate one value, x, from this distribution using uniform random numbers
0.2 and 0.6. Use the value 0.2 and the inversion method to simulate J where J =1 refers
to the first random variable in the mixture and J =2 refers to the second random variable.
Then use 0.6 and the inversion method to simulate a value from X.

Calculate the value of x.

(A) 0.45

(B) 1.02

(C) 1.53

(D) 1.83

(E) 2,75

291. There are four decrements, labeled (1), (2), (3), and (4). Over the next year the
probabilities for each are 0.05, 0.10, 0.15, and 0.20, respectively. There are 500
independent lives subject to these decrements. You plan to simulate the results for the
next year using successive binomial distributions and do so in the order in which the
decrements are numbered. The first binomial simulation had 23 instances of decrement
(1) and the second binomial simulation had 59 instances of decrement (2).

Determine the values of m and q for the binomial distribution to be used for simulating
decrement (3).

-173-
(A) m =500, q =0.15

(B) m =500, q =0.21

(C) m =418, q =0.15

(D) m =418, q =0.18

(E) m =418, q =0.21

292-295. Use the following information for questions 292-295.

Four of XYZs policyholders have the following history.

Policy
number
Date of birth Date policy
issued
Status on
12-31-2012
Status on
policy
anniversary in
2013
1 4-1-1930 3-1-1980 Died 10-1-
2012
Died
10-1-2012
2 7-1-1930 10-1-1990 Insured Surrendered
5-1-2013
3 8-1-1930 1-1-2000 Insured Insured
4 9-1-1930 8-1-2000 Surrendered
11-1-2012
Surrendered
11-1-2012

292. XYZ conducts a mortality study from 1-1-2012 through 12-31-2012 using actual ages.

Calculate the absolute value of the difference between the estimated mortality
probabilities at age 82, using the exact and actuarial methods.

(A) 0.012

(B) 0.015

(C) 0.018

(D) 0.021

(E) 0.024

-174-
293. XYZ conducts a mortality study from 1-1-2012 through 12-31-2012 using insuring ages.

XYZ assigns insuring ages based on the age at the nearest birthday when the policy is
issued.

Calculate the absolute value of the difference between the estimated mortality
probabilities at age 82, using the exact and actuarial methods.

(A) 0.046

(B) 0.051

(C) 0.055

(D) 0.060

(E) 0.064

294. XYZ conducts a mortality study from anniversaries in 2012 through anniversaries in
2013 using insuring ages.

XYZ assigns insuring ages based on the age at the nearest birthday when the policy is
issued.

Calculate the absolute value of the difference between the estimated mortality
probabilities at age 82, using the exact and actuarial methods.

(A) 0.031

(B) 0.035

(C) 0.039

(D) 0.042

(E) 0.045

-175-
295. Estimate the variance of the estimator based on exact exposures from Question 293 using
the delta method approach.

(A) 0.13

(B) 0.26

(C) 0.41

(D) 0.56

(E) 0.71

296-297. Use the following information for questions 296-297.

A mortality study of insured lives is being conducted. Insuring ages are employed and the
study runs from anniversaries in 2010 through anniversaries in 2012. Assume that events
that can occur between anniversaries do so uniformly. The following was observed:

There are 10,000 lives at age 60 when first observed in 2010. Between then and their next
anniversary 100 die and 800 surrender their policy. In 2011, 1000 new policies are sold at
age 61. For those insured at their age 61 anniversary in 2011, 120 die and 700 surrender
before their 2012 anniversary.

There are 8000 lives at age 61 when first observed in 2010. Between then and their next
anniversary 80 die and 700 surrender their policy. In 2011, 800 new policies are sold at
age 62. For those insured at their age 62 anniversary in 2011, 90 die and 600 surrender
before their 2012 anniversary.

296. Determine the actuarial estimate of the mortality probability at age 61.

(A) 0.0112

(B) 0.0113

(C) 0.0114

(D) 0.0115

(E) 0.0116

-176-
297. Determine the estimate base on exact exposures of the mortality probability at age 61.

(A) 0.0112

(B) 0.0113

(C) 0.0114

(D) 0.0115

(E) 0.0116

298. For a warranty policy, the expenses, E, are the product of the random variable Y and the
loss amount, X. That is, E =XY. Loss amounts, X, follow the lognormal distribution with
the underlying normal distribution parameters = 5.2 and = 1.4. Given X, the
conditional probability density function of Y is:


/2
( | ) , 0
2
y x
x
f y x e y

= >
Use the inversion method and the following three uniform (0, 1) random numbers to
simulate three loss amounts:

0.937 0.512 0.281

For each simulated loss amount, use the following uniform (0, 1) random numbers, in
order, to simulate three expense amounts.

0.433 0.298 0.978

Calculate the average value of expenses based on the three simulated amounts.

(A) Less than 23

(B) At least 23, but less than 28

(C) At least 28, but less than 33

(D) At least 33, but less than 38

(E) At least 38

-177-
299. For a health insurance policy effective J anuary 1, the number of claims in a one-year
period follows the Poisson distribution with mean =5.

The following uniform (0, 1) random numbers are used in the given order to simulate the
time of the first claim and the times between occurrences of subsequent claims.

0.605 0.529 0.782

Calculate the simulated date of occurrence of the third claim.

(A) Before May 1

(B) On or after May 1, but before August 15

(C) On or after August 15, but before September 1

(D) On or after September 1, but before September 30

(E) On or after September 30



























-178-

300. You are given:

i) Three observations:

2 5 8

ii) The selected kernel, which does not have the same mean as the
empirical estimate, has distribution function:


0 1
1
( ) , 1 2
3
1 2
y
, x y
x y
K x y x y
, x y
<

+
= +

> +



Calculate the coefficient of variation of the kernel density estimator.


(A) 0.47
(B) 0.50
(C) 0.52
(D) 0.57
(E) 0.58

-179-
301. For a mortality study, you are given:

i) The following table of observations:

Interval
j
Left End
c
j

Right End
c
j+1
New Entrants
n
j
Withdrawals
w
j
Deaths
d
j
0 0 6 90 30 10
1 6 12 80 20 8
2 12 18 70 30 20
3 18 24 40 30 16

ii) n
j
=new entrants in the interval [c
j
, c
j+1
), of which 70% arrive in the
first half
iii) w
j
= withdrawals in the interval (c
j
, c
j+1
], of which 30% occur in first half
iv) d
j
=deaths in the interval (c
j
, c
j+1
], all occurring at the mid-point

Calculate the Kaplan-Meier estimate of the probability that a subject observed at time 0
dies before time 24.


(A) 0.41
(B) 0.43
(C) 0.50
(D) 0.57
(E) 0.59
-180-
302. For a health insurance policy, you are given:

i) The annual number of claims follows the distribution given below:

Number of Claims Probability
0 0.7
1 0.2
2 0.1

ii) Unmodified claim amounts, with no deductible or limit, follow the
exponential distribution with mean 20.
iii) Each claim is subject to a deductible of 2 and a limit of 40 applied before
the deductible. There is also an aggregate annual limit of 50 applied after
the deductible.

Use the uniform (0, 1) random number 0.237 and the inversion method to simulate the
payment when the number of claims is one. Use the uniform (0, 1) random numbers
0.661 and 0.967 and the inversion method to simulate the payments when the number of
claims is two.

Calculate the mean of annual payments, using the simulated values.


(A) Less than 6
(B) At least 6, but less than 21
(C) At least 21, but less than 36
(D) At least 36, but less than 51
(E) At least 51
-181-
303. An actuary observed a sample of 1000 policyholders during the interval from age 30 to
age 31 and found that 98 of them died in this age interval.

Based on the assumption of a constant hazard rate in this age interval, the actuary
obtained a maximum likelihood estimate of 0.100 for the conditional probability that a
policyholder alive at age 30 dies before age 31.

Calculate the estimate of the variance of this maximum likelihood estimator, using the
delta method.


(A) 0.000079
(B) 0.000083
(C) 0.000086
(D) 0.000092
(E) 0.000097




















-182-
304. For a product liability policy, you are given:

i) Loss amounts, Y, follow the discrete mixture distribution denoted by:


4
1
( ) ( ),
Y
k
X k
k
F y F y
=
=

where
1
, 2,3,4
k
k k = =

ii) The random variables
k
X follow the exponential distribution with mean

1
.
k
k

=

Three loss amounts are to be simulated using the following uniform (0, 1) random
numbers in order:

a) For the required discrete random variable J, where Pr(J = k) =
k

0.235 0.456 0.719
b) For the exponential distributions
0.435 0.298 0.678

Calculate the average of the three simulated loss amounts.


(A) Less than 0.5
(B) At least 0.5, but less than 1.0
(C) At least 1.0, but less than 1.5
(D) At least 1.5, but less than 2.0
(E) At least 2.0
-183-
305. An insurance policy is available with deductibles of 500 or 750, and policy limits of 1500
or 20,000. The underlying loss distribution is assumed to be independent of deductible
and policy limit.

You are given the following claim counts:

Loss Range
Deductible
Total
500 750
500-750 8 8
750-1000 10 10 20
1000-1500 12 15 27
1500-5000 14 18 32
5000-10,000 10 17 27
10,000-20,000 0 0 0
At 1500 limit 6 0 6
At 20,000 limit 0 0 0
Total 60 60 120


Calculate the probability that a loss from a policy with a 750 deductible will
exceed 5000, using the Kaplan-Meier approximation with all the given data.


(A) 0.27
(B) 0.29
(C) 0.33
(D) 0.36
(E) 0.37
-184-
306. An analyst is asked to compare the following two models for a data set.

Model A: The data is from a normal distribution with 100 = and
2
5. =
Model B: The data is from a normal distribution with 101 = and
2
4. =

10 n =
10
1
1039.7
j
j
x
=
=


10
2
1
10,833.6
j
j
x
=
=



Model A Model B
Kolomogrov-Smirnov 0.589 0.580
2
goodness-of-fit

3 groupings 282.9 223.2
5 groupings 1040.9 739.2
Log likelihood at MLE -31.79 -31.79
Loglikelihood at hypothesised parameters -59.66 -77.82

Critical values for Kolomogrov-Smirnov (K-S) goodness-of-fit test:

1.0% 0.515
5.0% 0.430
10.0% 0.386

Which of the following statements is false?

(A) The data indicates that neither of the models is appropriate.
(B) The test statistic for the likelihood ratio test is 36.32.
(C) Estimating the parameters from the data will change the critical values for the
K-S test.
(D) A p-p graph would be helpful in judging the appropriateness of the models.
(E) The Anderson-Darling test is an alternate test used for discrete distributions.