You are on page 1of 93



In partial fulfillment of the requirement For the award of the Master of Business Administration For the Session-2009-2010
Supervisor Name: Harinder Singh Indiainfoline ltd. Feroze Gandhi mkt. Ludhiana. Submitted by: Ullas Bassi MBA-2ND SEM


Page 1


Summer Training Report On Technical Analysis Of Securities Undertaking at

India Infoline limited

Page 2


Table of Contents
Page no.

Acknowledgement Preface About the Project Introduction to the Securities market Introduction to the Stock Market About IIFL Objective of the study Scope of the study Introduction to the study MACD & MACD-H Financial Review Budget 2009 Research design & Methodology Questionnaire & Analysis Limitations of the study Suggestions and Findings Bibliography

4 5 6 7 to 9 10 to 15 16 to 24 25 26 27 to 41 42 to 58 59 to 78 79 to 80 80 to 89 90 91 to 92 93

Page 3


Surpassing milestones towards a mission give us degree of jubilance that we tend to forget the precious help extended by people to whom the success of mission is solely dedicated.
Concentration, dedication, hard work & application are essential but not the only factor to achieve the desired goal .It must be supplemented by guidance, assignment & cooperation of people to make it a success. Every complete successful assignment is the result of many hands joined together and we must thank all of them My summer training at India Infoline ltd. was an ardent, unforgettable and fruitful experience. I was overwhelmed with the friendly and cooperative attitude, the enlightened advice and information extended to me by everyone. To start with, I would like to thank Mr. Harinder Pal Singh (Territory manager) for giving me an opportunity to do my summer training in this esteemed organization. I would like to thanks Mr. SUNNY AHUJA (Training Officer) who helped us to complete our project. They never hesitated to answer our never ending queries I would like to thank Prof. MONIKA THAKUR for smooth and unhurdled completion of my training. At last but not the least, my warmest thanks to my parents and all my friends as their motivation proved to be of great help in the completion of this project


Page 4


Life is too short & art is too long the occasion fleeting experience fallacious and judgment difficult
As a part of degree of MBA, a student has to undergo for training in a commercial organization with the help of this training research students come to know that how the academic knowledge is applied in an actual business situation. They also come to know about the working conditions under which they will have to work in the future In our summer training report we are studied Technical Analysis of Securities. It is the student attempt to watch, record, analyzed and understand the trends of the stocks and practical aspect of the stocks and applying the theoretical knowledge and concept. Today the corporate world is related to the stock exchange in many ways even the political, economic, regional, and many more factors affect the stock exchanges. Basically all these things are inter related and have effect on each other in one or another way. So this report has been prepared keeping all these in minds and it includes the basic of stock market and stock exchange. Every effort has been made to satisfy the readers but in spite of this all the critical appraisals are also welcome.

Page 5



I have made a project during my two months summer training undertaking at INDIAINFOLINE LIMITED FEROZE GANDHI MARKET

LUDHIANA. The project is about the implement of MACD and MAC-H as a tool of Technical Analysis of Securities. For this purpose I have collected some historical data just to make my stand clear on the concept of MACD and MACH as a tool of Technical Analysis of Securities. To make this concept clear to understand I have used some examples, charts with interpretation and some historical data



Page 6


Introduction to securities market

The money you earn is partly spent and the rest saved for meeting future expenses. Instead of keeping the savings idle you may like to use savings in order to get return on it in the future .This is called investment and the security market provide you the place for investment. Securities market is a place where buyer and seller enter in to transactions to purchase and sell shares, bonds, debentures etc. one can invest in various securities i.e. shares , government securities, derivative products, unit of Funds etc.

Functions of the securities market

Securities markets provide channels for reallocation of savings to investments and entrepreneurship. Savings are linked to investment by a variety of intermediaries, through a range of financial products, called securities. To ensure that the investor reap full benefit. To ensure recognized code of conduct. To provide update rates for actual and potential investors. It enables the corporate, entrepreneur to raise resources for their companies and business ventures through public issues. Security market helps the buyer and sellers of the securities to enter

into transaction to purchase and sell the shares, bonds, debentures etc. The securities market is structured to provide liquidity and marketability to the securities industry. It is a place where stock certificates can be turned into cash at the prevailing price. This kind of liquidity makes investing in stock attractive. It provides the market quotation of shares, bonds and debentures, which is sort of buying and selling in the market.

Page 7


Segments of security market

It has two interdependent segments The primary (new issues) market and. Secondary markets (stock exchanges). The primary market provided the channel for sale of new securities while the secondary market deals in securities previously issued and are listed on the stock exchange. Majority of the trading is done on the secondary market, which compromises of equity market and debts market. Secondary market could either be dealer or auction market. While stock exchange is the part of auction market, over-the-counter (OTC) is a part of the dealer market.

Introduction to stock exchange

A stock exchange is a nervous system of the capital market. The changes in the capital market are brought about by a complex set of factors, all operating on the market simultaneously. A stock exchange is a key institution facilitating the issue and sale of various types of securities. It is a pivot around which every activity of the capital market revolves. In the absence of stock exchange, the people with savings would hardly invest in corporate securities for which there would be no liquidity (buying and selling). Corporate investments from the general public would have been thus lower. A stock exchange is a place or a market where securities, shares, debentures, bonds, mutual funds of joint stock companies, central and state government organizations, local bodies and foreign government are brought and sold. A stock exchange is a platform for the trade of already issued securities through primary market.

Page 8


It is the essential pillar of the private sector and corporate economy. It is the open auction market where buyer sellers met and involve a competitive price for the securities. It reflects hope aspirations and

Meaning of stock exchanges in India

The Securities Contract (Regulation) Act, 1956 *SCRA+ defines ,Stock Exchanges as any body of individuals, whether incorporated or not, constituted for the purpose of assisting, regulating or controlling the business of buying, selling or dealing in securities Point to be noted is that stock exchange could be regional stock exchange whose area of operation/ jurisdiction is specified at the time of its recognition or national exchanges, which are permitted to have the nationwide trading since inception. LSE is a regional stock exchange whose area of jurisdiction is J&K, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and NSE was incorporated as national stock exchange.

History of stock exchanges in India

In INDIA only registered stock exchanges can operate the stock market activities and recognition is governed under the provision (Regulation) Act, 1956. There are 24 Regional stock exchanges in INDIA. Bombay Stock Exchanges (BSE) and National Stock Exchange (NSE) are the two major stock exchanges of INDIA. BSE is the oldest stock exchanges in ASIA. It was established as The Native Share & Stock Brokers Association in 1875. It was the first stock exchange in INDIA to obtain the permanent recognition in 1956 from the government of INDIA under the Securities Contract Act, 1956. BSE in 1986 came out with a stock index i.e. SENSEX that subsequently became the barometer of the Indian stock

Page 9


market. BSE played a pivotal role in the development of the Indian capital market and its index, SENSEX, is tracked worldwide. The exchange has the nation wide reach with a presence in 417 cities and town in India. It provides an efficient and transparent market for trading in equity, debt instrument and derivatives. NSE on the other hand was in incorporated as a tax paying company in 1992. In 1993 NSE was recognized as a stock exchange under the Securities Contract Regulation Act, 1956 and it commenced operations in the wholesale debt market (WDM) segment in June1994. The capital market equities segment commenced operations in November 1994 and operations

in derivatives segment

were started in June 2000. In October 1995, NSE became the largest stock exchange in the country. NSE launched S&P CNX Nifty in April1996. NSE is one of the largest interactive VSAT based exchanges in the world. Presently, it supports more than three 3000 VSATs. The NSE network is the largest private wide area network in India and first C- Band VSAT. History of stock exchanges of Indian capital market can be back to the 18th century as follows:

History of Indian Capital market at a glance

18th Century
1800- Trading of shares of East India Company in Kolkata and Mumbai 1850- Joint stock companies came into existence 1860- Speculation and feverish dealing in securities 1875- Formation of stock exchange of Mumbai 1894- Formation of Ahmadabad Stock Exchange 19th Century 1908- Formation of Calcutta Stock Exchange

Page 10


1939- Formation of Lahore and Madras stock exchange 1940- Formation of U.P. and Delhi stock exchange 1956- Securities Contract Regulation Act regulated 1957- Scam of Haridas Mundhra 1988- Securities and exchange board of India set up 1991- Scam of MS Shoes 1992- SEBI given power under SEBI Act, 1992 1993- Formation of National Stock Exchange (NSE) 1995- HARSHAD MEHTA Scam

1995- SESA GOA Scam 1998- BPL and Videocon Scam 20th Century 2000- Depositories came into existence (electronic form of shares) 2001- Ketan parikh Scam 2002- Start of rolling settlement and banning of BADLA Trading 2003- Introduction of T + 3 settlements in April 2003- Introduction of T + 2 settlements in April

Page 11


Features of Stock Exchange

It provides the training platform where buyers and sellers meet to transact in securities. The stock exchange in India is under the supervision of the regulatory, the Securities and Exchange Board of India. It is the place where sale and purchase of existing securities is done. It enables an investor to adjust his holdings of securities in response to changes in assessment about risk and return. It enables to meet the liquidity needs by providing market for sale of securities. Stock exchange is an association of individual members called member brokers. Stock exchanges are formed for the purpose of regulating and facilitating the buying and selling of securities. Stock exchange operate with due recognition from the govt. under securities and contract regulation act 1956. Stock exchange facilitates trading in securities of the public sector companies as well as govt. securities. It acts as a host of intermediaries which assist in trading of securities and clearing and settlement of trade.

Page 12


Trading in Stock Exchange

The trading in stock exchange is done through the authorized members who have duly registered with concerned stock exchange through Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). They have to pay a certain some of money as security and some margin money in advance for dealing in securities to the stock exchange. After depositing the money he can start trading. Nowadays as screen base trading has started through satellite, so now a person can also deal in securities on web from some particular sites as ICICIDIRECT.COM, INDIABULLS.COM, and SHAEKHAN.COM etc.

Trading Mechanism
The operation of sale and purchase of scrips is as follows:

Walk to any broker /sub broker See the prices of the shares Scan the counter at broker place It display the 3best bidding offer for all the scrips traded Decide to buy or sell, asks your broker to deal on your behalf Make the payment /margin money/share certificate Collect confirmation slip Visit the same counter on pay out day to collect delivery/payment

Page 13


Who is benefited from the stock market?

Investor: It provide them liquidity, marketability, safety etc. of the

Companies: It provides them the access to market funds, higher rating and
public interests.

Brokers: They receive commission in lieu of their services to investor. Economy and country: There is a large flow of savings, better growth,
higher incomes and it helps the industries to grow. The recognition according to a stock exchange is normally valid for the period of five years. However the Stock Exchange of Bombay, Delhi, Chennai, Hyderabad, and Bangalore have been granted permanent recognition.

Importance of Stock Exchange

The stock exchange regarded as an institution of vital importance in every country where joint stock companies are regarded in trade and industrial activities under competitive condition. Industrial growth and development depends to a large extent on capital formation that is saving being invested in industrial concern thus possible on a large scale due to the existence of stock exchange. Individuals and Institutions interested in investing their saving are generally attracted towards securities issued by companies they are also interested in those securities which suit their estimates of risk and return on investment.

Page 14



North Zone

Kanpur Ludhiana Delhi Jaipur


Uttar Pradesh Stock Exchange Association Ltd. Ludhiana Stock Exchange Association Ltd. Delhi Stock Exchange Association Ltd. Jaipur Stock Exchange Ltd. Calcutta Stock Exchange Association Ltd. Gauhati Stock Exchange Ltd. Magadh Stock Exchange Ltd. Ahmedabad Stock Exchange Ltd. Vadodara Stock Exchange Ltd. Madhya Pradesh Stock Exchange Ltd Bombay Stock Exchange Ltd. OTC Exchange of India National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. Bangalore Stock Exchange Ltd. Madras Stock Exchange Ltd. Cochin Stock Exchange Ltd. Coimbatore Stock Exchange Ltd. Hyderabad Stock Exchange Ltd. Mangalore Stock Exchange Ltd.

East Zone

Bhubaneswar Bhubaneswar Stock Exchange Ltd. Calcutta Gauhati Patna

West Zone Ahmedabad Baroda Indore Mumbai Mumbai Mumbai South Zone Bangalore Chennai Cochin Coimbatore Hyderabad Mangalore

Page 15


Its all about money honey

Page 16


India Infoline is a growing organization, which is an ideal place for individuals with high ambitions. The working atmosphere is highly charged with a young and energetic team of qualified professionals. The average age of the team is 28. Further it provides an environment where conventions, protocols do not come in the way of good ideas. Individuals who are dynamic and result oriented will find their own niche in this environment. The strength of the organization has been to continuously innovate and reinvent itself. The organization as a team is continuously learning and is in sync with the rapidly charging environment. India Infoline ltd. is a one-stop financial services shop, most respected for quality of its advice, personalized service and cutting-edge technology. A network of 1,361 business locations spread over 428 cities and towns across India facilitates the smooth acquisition and servicing of a large customer base. All IIFL offices are connected with the corporate office in Mumbai with cutting edge networking technology . IIFL has overseas offices in Singapore, Dubai and New York. With a team of 25 research analysts, IIFL provides in-depth analysis of India

with plans to extend its presence to other Asia Pacific markets. It is listed on both the leading stock exchanges in India, viz. the Stock Exchange, Mumbai (BSE) and the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and is also a member of both the exchanges. It is engaged in the businesses of Equities broking, Wealth Advisory Services and Portfolio Management Services. It offers broking services in the Cash and Derivatives segments of the NSE as well as the Cash segment of the BSE. IIFL is registered with NSDL as well as CDSL as a depository participant, providing a one-stop solution for clients trading in the equities market. IIFL has recently launched its Investment banking and Institutional Broking business.
Page 17


India Infoline limited was originally incorporated on October 18, 1995 as Probity Research and Services Private Limited at Mumbai under the Companies Act, 1956 with Registration No. 11 93797. It commenced our operations as an independent provider of information, analysis and research covering Indian businesses, financial markets and economy, to institutional customers. It became a public limited company on April 28, 2000 and the name of the Company was changed to Probity Research and Services Limited. The name of the Company

was changed to India Limited on May 23, 2000 and later to India Infoline Limited on March 23, 2001.

In 1999, they identified the potential of the Internet to cater to a mass retail segment and transformed its business model from providing information services to institutional customers to retail customers. Hence it launched its Internet portal, in May, 1999 and started providing news and market information, independent research, interviews with business leaders and other specialized features. In May 2000, the name of the Company was changed to India Limited to reflect the transformation of its business. Over a period of time, it has emerged as one of the leading business and financial information services provider in India. In the year 2000, it leveraged its position as a provider of financial information and analysis by diversifying into transactional services, primarily for online trading in shares and securities and online as well as offline distribution of personal financial products, like mutual funds and RBI Bonds. These activities were carried on by its wholly owned subsidiaries.

Page 18


Its broking services was launched under the brand name of through its subsidiary, India Infoline Securities Private

Limited and, the e-broking portal, was launched for online trading in July 2000. It combined competitive brokerage rates and research, supported by Internet technology, besides investment advice from an experienced team of research analysts, we also offer real time stock quotes, market news and price charts with multiple tools for technical analysis. India Infoline fixes a price band between Rs 70 and Rs 80 for its forthcoming public issue. The company is coming out

with public issue of 1.18 crore shares with a face value of Rs 10 through the book building route. The issue is slated to open on April 21 and close on April 27. Enam Financial Consultants Private Ltd would be the sole book running lead manager to the issue while In time Spectrum Registry Ltd is the registrar to the issue.

India Infoline public issue gets 6.6 times oversubscription

IIFL main offices are located in approximately 4,000 square feet of office space located in Mumbai, India. India Infoline Branches

collectively occupy an additional 10,000 square feet of office space located throughout India, as on March 31, 2005, we have 73 branches across 36 locations in India.

Page 19


Key executive

S.No 1 2 3 4 5 6

Name Mr. Nirmal Jain Mr. R Venkataraman Mr. Nilesh Vikamsey Mr. Kranti Sinha Mr. A K Purwar Mr. Sat Pal Khattar

Designation Chairman and Managing director Executive Director Independent Director Independent Director Independent Director Non Executive Director

Products & Services

India Infoline ltd. is a one-stop financial services shop, most respected for quality of its advice, personalized service and cutting-edge technology. Products & services offered by Indiainfoline limited are:

1. Equity 2. Portfolio Management services 3. Research 4. Commodities 5. Mortgages 6. Insurance 7. Wealth Management Services 8. Investment Online a) Investment in MF. b) Apply in IPOs

Page 20


India Infoline has recently been awarded the 'Best Broker, India' by Finance Asia and the 'Most improved brokerage, India' in the Asia Money polls. India Infoline has also won the 'Fastest Growing Large Broking House' award by Dun & Bradstreet. A forerunner in the field of equity research, India Infoline's research is acknowledged by none other than Forbes as 'Best of the Web' and '...a must read for investors in Asia'. India Infoline's research is available not just over the Internet but also on international wire services like Bloomberg, Thomson First Call and Internet Securities where it is amongst one of the most read Indian brokers.

Page 21



Services provided by Share khan are as

Online + offline
Internet Telephonic

Also provide software namely Trade Tiger and Fast trade internet services to the customer, who want to operate their own account while sitting at home. Offers- They offer two plans Rs.250+ margin money AMC- Rs.300 p.a. Brokerage - .05 on Intraday .50 on delivery (Excluding taxes) Prepaid plan (Rs.6,000) No such charges .025 on Intraday .25 on delivery (Excluding taxes)

In prepaid plan Rs.6,000 which would be given in advance, is refundable in the form of brokerage with the one year validity. Transaction charges / Scrip charges would be depend on the transaction (max.Rs.16).

Limitations1. They do unauthorized trading on the part of the customers. 2. They give very limited period of debit. 3. Services provided to the customer are not satisfactory. 4. No lifetime plan given by them .

Page 22




Services provided by Religare are as follows:

Online + offline
Internet Telephonic

Offers They have only one plan in which the customer have to pay Rs.10,500ce in advance out of which Rs.250 will be deducted as AMC and Rs.100 will be deducted as new account opening. They give four times limit to trade in Intraday by default and two time limits for delivery. They charge .o3%/100 brokerage for Intraday and .30%/100 for delivery (excluding other charges).

They have only one plan and no life time plan They 18% p.a. rate of interest on the debit amount They required higher initial investment in the form of margin money. They charge very high scrip charges.

3.HDFC bank-

Now a days Banks also provided services of trading

trough net banking or telephonic banking. But they charge very high rate of brokerage as they avail this services from some other trading firm. HDFC bank also provided this service, they open demat +trading account with Rs.799. No physical place is provided by them to the investors. You can check your account on bank website

Page 23


4. INDIABULLS - Services provided by Indiabulls are as follows:

Online + offline
Internet Telephonic

Offers- they offer one lifetime plan of Rs. 900. In which no AMC will
be charge in future They give six times limit to trade in Intraday by default and two time limits for delivery.

They charge .o3%/100 brokerage for Intraday and .30%/100 for

delivery (excluding other charges)

They have only one lifetime plan, no other option for the customers.
They charge very high transaction charges They give very limited period of debit.


In all the companies for opening of the Demat

account we have to fulfill following formalities: PAN CARD Resident proof One cancel cheque. One cheque of margin money.

Page 24



Whenever a study is conducted, it is done on the basis of certain objectives in the mind. A successful completion of the project is based on objective of the study that could be stated as follows:

1) To determine the expectations and apprehensions of investors in the stock market. 2) To study the awareness level of investors about Technical Analysis 3) To determine the measure which can be taken to improve the quality of technical Research? 4) To determine the investment criteria of investors. 5) To save the existing and initial investor from high losses. 6) To increase the ROI of existing and initial investor. 7) To overcome the difficulties for decision making. 8) To study volatility in different sector of the market.

Page 25



The scope is related to study of TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF SECURITIES. But this is very vast. There are many tools of Technical Analysis of the securities. Each tool has its own importance as well as limitations. Our scope of the project is limited to the study of MACD and MACD-H as tools of Technical Analysis of Securities.

Page 26



In introduction of study wee generally give the brief introduction about the topic under study or on the research is being conducted.

The project named TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF SECURITIES is generally related to the investments in INDIAN economy. In this study we find out the factors which effect the investments in INDIA and try to understand the problem in deep to sort out the all the threats and remove all the limitation of the decisions regarding investments. The existing investors and initial investors face many problems while he invests in IPOs & in Equities. Because there are many type of shares which are divided in different categories. This makes the investments a complex decision. There are many difficulties while they invest. In this study we elaborated the factors to be considered before investing in any sector.

For this, the study is divided into two parts:

How we can analyze and invest in the equities.

Which current sector should be used for high return? How can we use MACD and MACH as a tool of technical analysis

This project is mainly concerned with how we can get knowledge regarding investment in Equities and get best returns on our investments.

Page 27


There are two main types of analysis of predicting the performance of a companys stock FUNDAMENTAL and TECHNICAL analysis. Fundamentalists forecast stock prices on the basis of Economic-IndustryCompany statistics. The principal decision variables ultimately take the form of earning and dividend. The latter looks for peaks, bottoms, trends, patterns, and other factors affecting a stocks price movement and then making a buy/sell decision based on those factors. It is a technique many people attempt though very few are truly successful.

Fundamental Analysis is an approach to determine the expected value of a security. Its objective is to identify the under- priced and overpriced and over-priced securities in the market place so that investment decision (buying &selling ) can be made. The fundamental analysis includes the three components: Economy Analysis Industry Analysis Company Analysis

Page 28


The economic activity affects corporate profits, investors attitude and expectations and ultimately security prices/ return. Thus the performance of the company depends on the performance of the economy. If the economy is in the recession or stagnation, the performance of the company will be bad in general. If the economy is booming, incomes are rising and the demand is good, the industries in general may be prosperous.

Industry Analysis
The industry analysis can be viewed as one security analysis. Industry analysis involves several steps. As a first step, industries are analyzed in terms of their stage in life-cycle. The analysis indicates the value to investors of selecting certain industries while avoiding others.

Company Analysis
In the company analysis, all the factors affecting the earnings of a particular company are considered. Both internal and external information is considered in the company analysis. Thus the fundamental analysis involves making careful estimates of the expected stream of benefits and the required rate of returns for a common stock.

Page 29


Limitations of fundamental analysis

The following are the main obstacles in the way of successful fundamental analysis:

Incorrectness of data
An analyst has to often analysis the incorrect data. An experienced and skilled analyst may be able to defect Miss-representation and concealment but sometimes he is mislead by them into wrong conclusion.

Future uncertainties
Future changes are largely unpredictable, more so when the economic and business environment has frequent winds of change.

Irrational market behavior

The slow correction of under or over-valuation poses a threat to the analyst. Before the market reflects the value established by the analyst, new forces may emerge.

Fallibility of experts
The investment decision requires interactive reasoning and not linear reasoning. When multiple factors interact in complicated way and point in different directions, human judgments, however well-informed and wellreasoned, tend to be fallible.

Page 30


Meaning and Concept of Technical Analysis
We can define technical analysis as a study of stock market considering factors related to the supply and demand of the stocks. Technical analysis doesnt look at underlying earnings potential of a company while evaluating stocks. It uses charts and computer programs to study the stocks trading volume and price movement of the stock on the basis of the trend. Technical analyst assumes that the market is efficient and the price has already taken into consideration the other factors related to the company and industry. The technical analysts believe that the past patterns of the market will recur in future and can, therefore, be used for predictive purposes. Technical analysis records historical data on charts, study these charts in an effort to find meaningful patterns, and use these patterns to predictive future prices. Some techniques are used to predict the single security, some are used to predict movement of market index, and some are used to predict both the action of individual securities and the market action. Technical analysis is frequently used as a supplement to fundamental analysis rather than as a substitute for it.

Page 31


History of Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis as a tool of investment for the average investor thrived in the late nineteenth century when Charles Dow, the editor of the Wall Street Journal, proposed the DOW THEORY. He recognized that the movement is caused by the action/reaction of the people dealing in stocks rather than the news in itself.





The techniques of Technical Analysis are based on the following main assumptions:

1. Market prices are determined by the interaction of demand and supply forces. 2. Supply and demand are influenced by a variety of factors, both rational and irrational. These include fundamental as well as psychological factors. 3. The stock prices tend to move in fairly persistent trends, expect minor deviations. 4. Shifts in demand and supply bring about changes in trends. 5. Shifts in demand and supply can be detected with the help of charts of market action. 6. Because of the persistence trends and patterns, analysis of past market data can be used to predict future price behaviors. 7.

Page 32


Purpose of Technical Analysis

The Technical Analysis is done from four important points of view, discussed as follows:


The changes in price reflect change in investor attitude and demand for and supply of securities.


The degree of movement in price is the function of time. The longer it takes for reversal in trends, the greater the price change that would follow.

The intensity of price changes is reflected in the volume of the transactions that accompany the change. An increase in price accompanied by a low volume implies that the change is not strong enough.

The quality of price change is measured by studying whether a change in trend spreads across most sector and industries or is concentrated in few type of scrip. Study of the breadth of the market indicates the extent to which the price changes have taken place in the market in accordance with a certain overall trend.
Page 33


Difference between F.A. & T.A.

Both fundamental and technical analyses are used to measure the price/return of securities but frequently used as supplement rather than substitute for it. However the following difference may be noted between the two. Fundamentalists forecast stock on the basis of Economy Industry Company statistics considering the future growth of EPS, DPS, Price of security. On the other hands, the technical analysis believe that past patterns of the market action will recur in future and, therefore, stock prices depend upon historical trends. T.A. mainly seeks to predict short term price movements, whereas, fundamental analysis tries to establish long term values. The focus of technical analysis is mainly on internet market data, particularly price and volume data. The force on fundamental analysis is on fundamental factors relating to the economy, the industry, and the firm. T.A. appeals mostly to the short term traders, whereas, fundamental analysis appeals to the long term investors. Fundamentalists believe that stock price behavior is 90% logical and 10% psychological, while technical analysts believe that stock price behavior is 90% psychological and 10% logical.

Thus we can conclude that speculators, who want to make quick money mostly, use results of technical analysis whereas investors, who invest on long- term basis, use the results of fundamental analysis.
Page 34


Tools of Technical Analysis

Technical analysis believes that price of stock depends on supply and demand in the market place. It has little co-relation with its intrinsic value. All financial data and market information of a given stock is already reflected in its market price. As such, charts are drawn to identify price movement pattern to predict future movement of the stock.

Technical tools may be used to assess the overall market as well as individual stocks. The following are different tools of Technical Analysis.

TOOLS OF Technical Analysis

Tools of overall individual Market Analysis Analysis

Tools of Stock

Dow Theory charts Breadth of Market Figure Analysis Analysis

Bar and line

Point and Charts Moving Average

Page 35


How is Technical Analysis done?

Technical Analysis is done by identifying the trend from past movements and then using it as a tool to predict future price movement of the stock. It can be done by using any of the above methods.

Types of Trends
Trends can be classified in to following types. They are

Generally a stock moves in any direction with the phases of consolidation or moving against the trend for short period. But still it creates a higher HIGH and LOWS in case of an uptrend. In short each short rally will create new high for the stock. In an uptrend each, each rally reaches a higher high than the preceding rally and each decline stops at a higher level than the preceding decline. An uptrend emerges when bulls are stronger than bears and their buying forces prices up.

In this case as against Uptrend the stock creates lower Highs and Lows. Furthermore in case of downtrend the fall is much steeper than the rise in case of Uptrend. In a downtrend each decline falls to a lower low than the preceding declined and each rally stops at a lower level than the preceding rally. Downtrend occurs when the Bears are stronger than the Bulls and their selling pushes market down.
Page 36


Range bound
In case of such a trend the price moves in a small range for the long period. There is no apparent direction as far as trend is concerned in this case.

Primary, trends




The main or primary trend often referred to as bull or bear market. Bulls go up and bears go down. They typically last about nine months to two years with bear market troughs separated by just under four years. These trends revolve around the business cycle and tend to repeat whether the weak phase of the cycle is an actual recession, or if there is no recession and just slow growth.

Primary trends
bull market Bear market

Secondary reactions
Page 37


Primary trends are not straight-line affairs, but series of rallies and reactions. These series of rallies and reaction are intermediate or medium-term trends. This trend can vary in length from as little as six week to as nine months, or a length of a very short primary trend. Intermediate trends typically develop as a result of changing perceptions concerning economic, financial or political events. It is important to have some understanding of the direction of the main or primary trend because rallies in bull markets strong and reaction are weak. On the other hand, reactions in bear markets are strong and rallies are short, sharp and generally are unpredictable.

Bull and Bear trend

Bull and Bear trend are always referred by primary trends as a already told. Bulls go up and bears go down.

Bull trend: Start and End
Start of bull trend


End of bear trend HL

Page 38




End of bear trend

Start of bear trend



LH = Lower High LL= Lower Low HL= Higher Low

Bull Market Runs 9 months to 2 years

Bear Market Runs 9 months to 2 years

Approximately 4 years

Bulls and Bears typically last about nine months to two years. Bull trend shows the bullish market and bear trend shows the bearish market. For practical purposes: Only accept the large corrections as trend changes in the primary trend:

Page 39


A bull trend start when price rallies above the previous high, A bull trend ends when price declines below the previous lows A bear trend starts at the end of bull trend and vice versa.

Role of Volume
Volume plays a key role in deciding about the kind of future movement in stocks. Whenever there is a sudden rise in the volume of the stock and if it is not followed by a price fall, it is a sign of consolidation and that the price may rise in near future. Generally if any stock break any trend it is

accompanied by huge rise in volume. In case of range bound trend the volume trend to die down to a great extent. Smart investor uses technical analysis to judge the rise in volume and take early positions in the stock during breakthroughs.

Investors for their short term trading decisions use technical analysis. This short term may be further divided in day trading, short term investment and for hedging purposes. The role played by Technical Analysis in each case is as follows:

Day traders
A day trader is one who takes and square off his position both on the same day. Mostly a day traders count on turnover rather than margin.

Page 40


Short-term investors
These people from the biggest clientele base of both the brokers and Technical Analyst.

These are generally big investors, who have lot of money at stake and hence they took to have some hedging of their risk. The strategy followed by this section of investors is that they compare the stock in consideration with the index on the basis of the result of this comparison: they take their position in the stock.

Is Technical Analysis Helpful?

If we use only technical Analysis in itself and do not consider other aspects, it is very unlikely we will have much success the long run, particularly in the short term investment. But if we use Technical Analysis along with Fundamental Analysis or discount the industry and company related news while considering the valuation, our chances minimizing the risk brightness.

One thing we must realize is that technical analysis provide us only with the trend and judge future on that basis, it can be far form actual in few cases. The best use of technical analysis is to realize the trend and levels at which it will break the trend so that one is prepared to task positions when such trends breaks. It is because of this disadvantage that technical analysis more useful only for short term investing.

Page 41


MACD stands for Moving Average Convergence/Divergence. The MACD method, developed by GERALD AAPLE is a trending indicator, telling us whether the stock is in an uptrend or a downtrend. The direction of the long term trend is the first assessment which one should make out of the market. If it is trending up, one want to be long (buying). If it is trending down, one want to be short (selling). This technique is one of the most often used by the different simulator software as performing the technical analysis of the stock trend using this method is easy and very straightforward. The MACD works well both for a long term, middle term and intraday systems.

The MACD is a trend following indicator momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of the prices.

It is used to signal trend changes and to indicate trend direction. To calculate the MACD subtract the 26-days EMA. A9 day dotted of the MACD called the Signal Line is then plotted on the top of the MACD.

Page 42


The term MA stands for Moving Averages. The moving average is one of the most useful, objective and oldest analytical tools around. Some patterns and indicators can be somewhat subjective, where analysts may disagree on if the pattern is truly forming or if there is a deviation that is might be an illusion. The moving average is more of a cut-and-dry approach to analyzing stock charts and predicting performance, and it is one of the few that doesnt require a genius intelligence to interpret. There are few types of moving averages, the most important (for the technical analysis ) are simple MA (SMA), where all points have equal weight and exponential MA (EMA), that all are assigning higher weight to the latest points, therefore making the method more sensitive to the resent changes in a stock price.

Exponential MA (EMA), are those averages which assign higher weight to the latest points, therefore making the method more sensitive to the resent changes in the stock price. This approach is better for most applications, however being more sensitive it can produce more false signals. Some traders would suggest using the traditional MA instead (all points have equal weight) for the situations when signals should be more reliable. To calculate the EMA, use the following approach: Current EMA= {2/ (1+Number_of_period_for_EMA)*(Current PricePrevious EMA)} +Previous _EMA. The MACD calculation is usually based on exponential moving averages, meaning that earlier points have less weight than latest ones.
Page 43


Price line is the line which shows the movement of the stock prices based on its frequency. The frequency may be hourly, daily, weekly, or yearly. It shows ups and downs in the market. The price line is the actual value of the stock price of a particular company in the current market.

The basic MACD trading rule is to buy when the MACD rises above its signal line; similarly a sell signal occurs when the MACD crosses below its signal line. The crossing of the MACD line above the signal can denote the beginning of a trend. An uptrend typically pauses or stops when the MACD line crosses and falls below the signal line. When the bullish crossover occurs above the zero line, the uptrend gains more momentum and the price raises with more intensity. Bullish MACD crossovers are probably the most common signals and as such can be less reliable. If not used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools, these crossovers can leads to whipsaws and many false signals.

Page 44


The MACD proves most effective in trending markets rather than choppy, sideways markets. There are two main sets of signals generated by the MACD: Crossovers and Divergence.

There are two main MACD crossover signals: 1. Signal Line Crossovers: MACD crosses above or below the Signal Line 2. Zero Line Crossovers: MACD crosses above or below the zero line

Signal Line Crossovers

The basic MACD trading rule is to BUY when the MACD rises above its Signal Line. Similarly, a SELL signal occurs when the MACD crosses below its Signal Line. The crossing of the MACD line above the signal line can denote the beginning of a trend. An uptrend typically pauses or stops when the MACD line crosses and falls below the signal line. The location relative to the signal line is also important in Indicating how strong a trend might be. A crossover above the signal line is considered more bullish than one below the signal line.

Page 45


Zero line Crossovers

The zero line can also be use to produce a signal. It is popular to buy/sell when the MACD crosses above/below the zero line. A bullish zero line crossovers occur when MACD moves above the zero line and into positive territory. This is a clear indication that momentum

has changed from negative to positive or from bullish to bearish. After a positive divergence and bullish MACD crossover, the zero line crossovers can act as a confirmation signal.


MACD can provide forewarning of important market turns through divergence. When the MACD trend diverges from the price trend, it can provide a signal that a trending market may slow or reverse. A negative or bearish divergence occurs when the MACD is making new lows while price fails to reach new lows. A positive or bullish diverges occurs when the MACD is making new highs while price trend fail to reach new highs. Both of these diverges are most significant when they are occur at relatively high /low levels. A positive divergence is shown when MACD begins to advance and the market is still in a downtrend and makes a new low. MACD can either form a series of higher lows or a second low that is higher than the previous low. Positive divergence is not very common, but is usually reliable and can lead to good moves.

Page 46



Microsoft Corporation chart with: MACD, and MACD signal line.

1. Go short [S] MACD crosses to below the signal line after a large swing. 2. Go long [L] when MACD crosses to above signal line. 3. Strong short signal [S] the MACD crosses after a large swing and bearish divergence (shown by the trend line). 4. Go long [L] Flat MACD signals that the market is ranging we are more likely to be whipsawed in /out of our position. 5. Exit long trade [X] but do not go short MACD is significantly below the zero line. 6. Re-enter your long trade [L].

Page 47


The best way is to use the basic MACD is to use a combination of signal to confirm one another. In addition, a fast MACD line can be added to enhance the signals generated and to often provide early warning of changes in trends. Combination with the signal line, the fast MACD line and the slow MACD line. The MACD Histogram is also commonly used to clarify the relationship between the two MACD lines.

When to apply
In order to use buy and sell signals successfully, we need to apply them when the trend is changing. To do it, we need to have a trend to reverse. The MA- sideways, or for trend that are not yet established.

Indicators should be used together, and it is particularly useful to avoid using similar indicator (MA and MACD). MAs can be used not only w ith the prices of stocks, but also with other indicators.

The moving average is one of the most useful, objective and oldest analytical tools around. Some patterns and indicator can be somewhat subjective, where analysts may disagree on if the pattern is truly forming or if there is a deviation that is might be an illusion. The moving average is more of a cut and dry approach to analyzing stock charts and predicting performance.

Page 48


Types of Moving Average

There are three type of moving average: 2. Simple Moving Average 3. Exponential Moving Average 4. Weighted Moving Average

Simple Moving Average

The simple moving average (or SMA) is the easiest to construct. A 5day SMA takes the sum of the last 5 prices and divides by 5. Easy but not always accurate: the indicator has a tendency to bark twice consider this example;

Day Price( $) 5 Day SMA

1 1 6

2 1 7

3 1 7

4 1 0

5 17

6 18

7 17

8 17

9 17

15. 4

15. 8

15. 8

15. 8

17. 2

You can see that on day 9 there is a big step in the simple moving average, but price has been constant at $17. This distortion is caused by the low price on day 4 dropped from the SMA on day 9.

Exponential Moving Average

To calculate an exponential moving average (EMA): Take todays price multiplied by an EMA% Add this to yesterdays EMA multiplied by (1 EMA%).

Page 49


If we recalculate the earlier table we see that the exponential moving average presents a far smoother trend:

Day Price 33.3% (or 1/3) EMA

1 16

2 17

3 17

4 10

5 17

6 18

7 17

8 17

9 17

16.3 16.5 14.4 15.2 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.8

Weighted Moving Average

A Weighted Moving Average (WMA) attaches greater weight to the most recent data. The weighting is calculated from the sum of days. Example: For a 5-day weighted moving average the sum of days 1+2+3+4+5 = 15 The weighting is shown below:

Day Price ($) Weighting Weighted 1.07 value 5 Day WMA

1 16 1/15 1.07

2 17 2/15 2.27

3 17 3/15 3.40

4 10 4/15 2.67

5 17 5/15 5.67 15.07

Weighed values are calculated by multiplying todays price by 5/15, yesterday by 4/15, and so on. The weighted moving average is the sum of the 5 weighted values
Page 50



Intel Corporation is plotted with a 63 day exponential moving average. The single moving average is used with two filters: Moving average direction, and The moving average must be crossed by closing price on two consecutive days. 1. Go short two closes below a falling moving average. 2. Go long moving average is now rising and price has closed above the moving average for 2 days. The following dip below the moving average (in early January) is filtered out. 3. The long trade is exited as there are two closes below the moving average. No short trade is entered as the moving average is sloping upwards.
Page 51


4. Go long two closes above a rising moving average. 5. Go short as there are two closes below a falling moving average. 6. Go long - two closes above a rising moving average. 7. Go short two closes below a falling moving average. 8. Go long moving average is rising again and there are 2 closes above it. Note how profitable the long trade [2] is during the strong upward trend, compared to when price whipsaws around the relatively flat moving average, frequently switching you in and out of trades. Trend indicators are normally unprofitable, and should be avoided, during ranging markets.

What do the different days mean?

The general assumption behind all moving averages is that once the stock price moves above the average that it may substantial momentum behind it and is worth buying. The opposite is true is if price if a security moves below the moving average.

20 day provides a very volatile, choppy line. It isnt the most accurate,
but is probably the most useful for short term traders.

30 day similar to 20 day but more certainty for the trend. 50 day moving average a much less volatile, smooth line. This can
be used to detect somewhat longer trends.

100 day similar to the 5o day, it is less volatile, and one of the most
widely used for long trends.

200 day even less volatile, it is rarely used.

Page 52


MA Trading Signals
Single Moving Average
Compares price to a single moving average. The system is often used with filters.

when price has crossed the moving average.


Uses the slope of the moving average as a filter

Two Moving Averages

Use a fast moving average instead of a filter.

Three Moving Averages

The third moving average indentifies when price is ranging.

Multiple Moving Averages

A series of five fast moving averages and five slow moving averages

Page 53


The best way to use the MA is to use a combination of signals to confirm one another say: fast, middle and slow. For example of such is given as:

Intel Corporation chart with 5 day (fast), 21 day (middle), and 63 day (slow).

1. Close previous long trade as the fast moving average has fallen below the middle moving average. 2. Go long as the middle moving average has risen above the slow moving average (and the fast moving average above the middle moving average).

Page 54


3. Close long trade - fast moving average has fallen below middle moving average. 4. We are whipsawed in and out of a long position as the fast moving average crosses to above then back under the middle moving average. 5. Another whipsaw. 6. Go long as the fast moving average crosses to above the middle moving average (and the middle moving average is above the slow moving average).

Technical Analysis is a method of evaluating securities by analyzing generated by market activity, past performance, and volume. The method assumes that the historical performances of stocks are indications of future performance this method is based upon following assumption: Securities move with very predictable trends and patterns. These trends remain intact until something happens to change the trend. Until this change occurs, price levels are predictable.

Page 55


Weakness of MACD
MACD is a trend following indicator, and as such, sacrifices early signals in exchange for keeping you in line with the trend. When a significant trend develops, MACD is often able to capture the majority of the move. When the trend is short lived, however, MACD often provide unreliable. This is because moving averages themselves are lagging indicators. Even though the MACD represents the difference between two moving averages, there is still some lag in the indicator itself. This is more likely to be the case with weekly charts more than daily charts. One solution of this problem is the use of the MACD Histogram.

Page 56


Intel Corporation is shown with MACD histogram and 21-day Exponential moving average. Trend lines show divergences.

1. Price is ranging - indicated by the flat MA. Go long [L] when the histogram turns up (far from the zero line). Place a stop below the recent Low. 2. Go short [S] as the histogram turns down (far from the zero line). Place a stop above the recent High. 3. Go long [L] - the histogram turns up and is reinforced by a bullish divergence. Place a stop below the recent Low. 4. Go short [S] as the histogram turns down - reinforced by a bearish divergence. Place a stop above the recent High.

Page 57


5. Ignore the signal as it is too close to the zero line. 6. Go long [L] as the histogram turns up when well below zero. Place a stop below the recent Low. 7. A further signal to go short [S]. Place a stop above the recent High.

8. Go long [L] - the histogram has turned up and is reinforced by a

bullish divergence. Price has broken clear of the trading range and the MA is rising - exit [X] when price closes below the MA.

The default settings are:

Slow moving average - 26 days Fast moving average - 12 days Signal line - 9 day moving average of the difference between fast and slow.

All moving averages are exponential.

Page 58


Financial Review
The Union budget presented on 9thJuly, 2009 was overall touted as being a long-term growth budget. However, many felt that there was definitely lot more that the Finance Minister could have achieved. Broadly, there are three areas which have been given a thrust agriculture and related infrastructure development, initiatives on improving overall health standards, development of rural sector and increasing the literacy rate, not only at primarily level but also higher education. None of these initiatives will result in significant short-term benefits. The benefits will trickle in to begin with impact only if these plans are executed well, will gain momentum and ultimately have significant impact on long-term economic growth. If India has to move to a higher growth plane, it will definitely need to improve the state of the primary sector, on which over 60% of the population is dependent. Conversely, any significant improvement in the primary sector will have a huge impact on national income as there will not only be a growth in production, but consumption too will get a boost as the not-so-well-off people living in rural India will also have more money to spend. An improvement in the health standards and the literacy rate will increase the overall productive capacity of the economy. There will also be productivity related benefits that are linked to a healthy and better educated work force. So, from a long-term perspective, it is a thumbsup. We can only hope that the execution of these plans will be a lot better as compared to the past.
Page 59


Budget Not As Bad As It Looks

Why the Disappointment? It will be an understatement to say that people were disappointed by the Budget presented by the Finance Minister on Monday. Expectations were quite high for two reasons. Firstly, the UPA Government had said in its earlier tenure in office

said that it could not push through many reforms because the Communists who were lending support for five years would not allow them to. So it was natural to expect that when the Communists were out of it, this Government would bring in new reforms. Secondly, the Economic Survey presented by the Finance Ministry had talked about many reform measures though admittedly it had not given any time frame for it. This being so, when the Finance Minister presented a rather routine Budget the markets reacted very negatively sensing a lost opportunity.

The Gold Nuggets

Having had this, let me say that the Budget is not bad as it looks and surely did not deserve the 870 pounding it got on Monday. There is a lot that the one should be happy about. The Government investment in infrastructure is being stepped up very sharply; so is the investment in Agriculture, Rural Development, Healthcare and Education. All this should translate into large contracts for private sector companies and more money among the masses. The plan to move from a Company based subsidy to Nutrient based subsidy in Fertilizer and commitment to do away with controlled pricing of petrol and diesel big steps forward.

Page 60


There is something for individual wage earners to take home. Apart from increasing the exemption limit in a modest way, the Budget has removed surcharge on income tax for those whose income exceeds 10 lakhs. This should put lot more disposable money into the hands of the high spending upper middle class.

Industry and Market Dont Get Much

For industry, its been a mixed package. It did get FBT abolished but MAT has been increased. Taxes have been kept broadly unchanged except that huge concessions given in the Interim Budget have not been removed.

Markets wanted STT to be removed and that did not happen

Let a Thousand Flowers Bloom

UPA is following the above line of the Chinese Dictator. To my mind the biggest positive from this Budget is that the Government has not succumbed to the temptation of tightening the belt. It has voted for growth rather than taking refuge under financial prudence. It has let the fiscal deficit unchanged, at a fairly high level. I am sure RBI does not like this much. A borrowing program of Rs 4.5 lack crores and an uncovered deficit of 6.6%- highest since 1991- should give Governor Rao sleepless nights.

Best Is To Move On
In India we have learnt to live on hope. So one will hope that all the big things that one lead in the economic survey would get implemented at some point in time. Meanwhile, investors would do well to put this Budget behind as one more event and get back to normal investing..

Page 61


Highlights of Budget 2009/10

Poll result is mandate for inclusive growth. A single Budget Speech cannot solve all our problems. Budget an important mean to present the view of the government Aim: To reduce number of people living below poverty line to less than half of current level by 2014 Aim to sustain a growth rate of 9% over a period of time Aims at farm growth of over 4% Ensure 4% agriculture growth Highlights of 2008-09: Sharp rise in inflation to nearly 13% and a equally sharp fall to 0% GDP dips from over 9% average in past three years to 6.7% in 2008 -09 Gross capital flow rose to over 9% over GDP Infra investment to be over 9% of GDP by 2014 Foreign investors are returning to Indian markets FIIs are back in the market, the worst two quarters are behind us Govt has some success in attracting investments in certain sectors through PPP Govt needs to provide further stimulus for the economy There are signs of revival in domestic industry Stepped up allocation of funds from Rs 10,800 cr. to Rs 15,800 cr. for Railways Highway and railways - allocation hiked by 23% IIFCL and banks in position to support Rs 1,00,000 cr. in Infrastructure

Page 62


JNNURM support raised by 87% The Assam gas cracker project estimated at Rs 5,160 cr. Loan for farmers Rs 300,000 at 7% per annum Govt announces rebate for farmers paying loan on time, and lower Rate of 6% proposed Proposes to extend deadline to farmers to pay off 75% of loans by six months To December 31, 2009 Exporters borne the brunt of eco crisis, will provide adj assistance till March 2010 The market development assistance scheme allocation hiked by 148% to Rs 124 cr. Budget makes subvention of 1% to benefit farmers 30% rise in Rashtriya Krishi Vikash Yojana allocation over 2008-09 Micro and SMEs affected by global crisis;credit flow at reasonable rate out of Rural infra dev fund Special fund of Rs 4,000 cr from Rural Infrastructure Dev fund to help MSME sector Return to FRBM target as soon as possible To increase fertiliser usage - govt proposes to move from product pricing Basis Institutional reforms to cover subsidies, expenditure Fiscal deficit up to 6.2% from 2.7% of GDP IT Saral 2 form to be introduced Proposes people's participation in disinvestment programme Turbulence in world markets left Indian financial sector unaffected
Page 63


PSU Banks, insurance firms outside disinvestment plan Only for Internal Circulation 2 Govt to set-up expert committee to advise on petro pricing products Rs 1 lakh crore projects for Infrastructure revival PSUs to remain under govt control Govt wants public shareholding in PSUs to go up 8.5% growth in recent past fuelled by private sector investment Income-tax return forms to be made more user-friendly NREGA min wages set at Rs 100/day NREGA outlay increased by 144% Govt to move food security bill very soon 59% increase in allocation for Pradhan mantri Gram Sadak Yojna Allocation for Indira Awaas Yojana to be increased by 63% Food security to provide rice, wheat at Rs 3 a kg to poor Bharat Nirman outlay raised by 59% Indira Awaas Yojana outlay increased by 63% NHB refinance to rural housing sector to be raised PM's Adarsh Gram Yojana starts with Rs 100 cr funding To launch national mission on female literacy Unorganised Social Security Bill passed by both houses of the Parliament Plan to cut female illiteracy by half in three yrs Govt aims to have social security for informal sector National Web Portal for employer and employee to be launched More than 46 lakh people received biometrics card

Page 64


To add handloom clusters in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu Right to Information Act been successful NREGA has been and outstanding success 46 lakh BPL families to come under new health insurance plan Unique ID cards in 12-18 months Govt proposes to launch housing for 1 lakh para military forces Paramilitary housing cost estimated at Rs 1,000 cr Certain Pension related benefits extended to war hounded Paramilitary housing project to cost Rs 1,000 cr Allocation for flagship Bharat Nirman progamme raised by 45% Rashtriya Mahila Kosh corpus to be raised to Rs 500 crore Govt to spend Rs 120 cr in FY10 in unique ID Allocation of Rs 2,113 cr for IIT National Mission for Female Literacy to be launched Govt to build 100,000 homes for paramilitary forces 50% of all rural women to be brought into self-help group programmes Allocation Commonwealth Games raised by more than 50% to Rs 3,472 crore Plan outlay increased by 74% Allocation for new Aligarh Muslim Univ. campuses in Bengal, Kerala at Rs 25 cr each Proposes Rs 500 cr for rehabilitation of displaced persons of northern and eastern areas of Sri Lanka Budget estimates: Rs 10,20,830 cr, Rs 6,95,600 cr non-planned and planned Rs 3,29,100 cr Aila hurricane relief at Rs 1,000 cr
Page 65


Plan expenditure up 34% to Rs 3.75 lakh cr Interest payment seen exceeding Rs 2 lakh cr To spend Rs 1.42 lakh on defence Interest payment is a third of expenditure plan Budget estimates: Interest payment expected at Rs 2,25,511 cr Enhance budgetary support by Rs 40,000 cr Only for Internal Circulation 3 Non tax revenue receipts are likely to be better Total estimated expenditure for 2009-10 is Rs 10 lakh crore Fiscal deficit seen at 6.8% in FY10 To eliminate tax distortion Increasing automation in direct tax collection Federal Tax/ GDP ratio is 11.5% TO INTRODUCE GST BY APRIL 1, 2010 To release new direct tax code in 45 days FBT to be abolished To pursue structural changes in Direct Tax New direct tax code to be released in 45 days To finalise New Direct Tax Code in House winter session State finance ministers agreed on GST basic structure Tax rates can be lower if tax base is higher. No change in corporate tax FR10. FY10 non-plan expenditure 6.97 trln rupees Senior citizen income tax limit hiked by 15,000 rupee/yr. Women income tax limit up 10,000 rupee to 190,000 rupee.

Page 66


Senior citizens IT exemption hiked to 240,000 rupees. IT exemption limit raised to 190,000 rupees for women. IT exemption hiked to 160,000 rupees for others. MAT rate to be increased to 15% vs 10% of book profit To remove surcharge of 10% on personal income tax Commodity transaction tax abolished Tax holiday extended for commercial production of natural gas Political funding will get 100% tax deduction National Pension Scheme exempted from STT MAT reduced to 15% of book profits, MAT tax credit increased from 7 years to 10 years Dividend under New Pension Scheme to get tax exemption New Pension Scheme investment not to attract STT Alternate dispute redressal mechanism for Tax disputes. Investment boost needs timely Tax disputes resolution. Donation to electoral trust to be 100% exempt for donor. 100% exemption for donations to electoral trust Anonymous donations - grant relief 5% of total income or Rs 1,00,000 whichever is higher Tax holiday on commercial production of mineral oil and natural gas on NELP VII 5% Custom duty on STBs Custom duty reduced on LCD panels from 10% to 5% Life saving drugs, including breast cancer, custom duty reduced to 5% from 10% Life saving devices on heart condition exempted from custom duty
Page 67


Custom duty on silver, excluding jewellery, hiked by Rs 500/ kh to Rs 1,000/kg Life saving devices on heart condition exempted from custom duty To extend Customs exemption to some more EoUs Cuts customs duty on wind power equipment by 2.5% To reintroduce CVD exemption on parts of mobile phones. Rough corals exempted from Customs duty. Customs duty on windmill inputs cut to 5% vs 7.5%. Customs duty on life saving drugs cut to 5% from 10%.Only for Internal Circulation 4 Basic customs duty on life-saving drugs down to 5% from 10%. Full Customs duty exemption on rough corals. Customs duty on gold bars up at 200 rupees/10 gms. Customs duty on life-saving equipment down to 5% from 7.5%. Customs duty for permanent magnets down to 5% from 7.5%. 8% excise duty on man made fibre. Excise on pure cotton textiles restored to 4%. Customs duty on silver hiked to 1,000 rupee/kg. Hike on customs duty on silver excludes jewellery. Wool waste, cotton waste customs duty down to 10% vs 15%. 4% excise on paper, paper goods, kitchen appliances. Excise on paper, paperboard articles retained at 4%. Blended petrol To be exempt from excise duties. To scrap excise on petrol, diesel blended with bio-diesel. 4% excise to stay on items of mass consumption. Custom duty on bio-fuel diesel cut to 2.5% from 7.5%.
Page 68


Bio-diesel exempt from excise duty FY10. Construction sector gets some excise sops. No excise duty on branded jewellery Excise duty on petrol diven trucks cut No new tax on edible oil imports Some law services brought under service tax Service tax on advise, technical assistance in the field of law on applicable for individuals Over 2000cc vehicle engine surcharge flat at 15,000 rupee. Exporters exempt from paying svc tax to transporters. Service tax levy on goods transported via rail, waterway. Svc tax extended to legal consultancy, not individuals. Direct tax proposals are revenue neutral. 20 bln rupee gain via indirect tax proposals FY10.

Page 69



India has a well developed tax structure with a three tier federal structure composing the Union government, the State governments, and the Urban/Rural Local Bodies. The power to levy taxes and duties is distributed among the three tiers of governments, in accordance with the provisions of the Indian Constitution. The main taxes/duties that the Union Government is empowered to levy are Income Tax except tax on agricultural income, which the State Government can levy), Custom Duties, Central Excise and Sale Tax and Service Tax. The principal taxes levied by the State Governments are Sales Tax (tax on intra-state sales of goods), Stamp Duty (duty on transfer of property), State Excise (duty on manufacture of alcohol ), Land Revenue (levy on land used for agricultural/non agricultural purpose), Duty on Entertainment and tax on Professions & Callings. The Local Bodies are empowered to levy tax on properties (buildings etc). Octroi (tax on entry of goods for use/consumption within areas of the Local Bodies), tax on Markets and Tax/User charges for utilities like water supply, drainage etc.

Since 1991 tax system of India has under gone a radical change, in line with liberal economic policy and WTO commitments of the country. Some of the changes are:

Reduction in custom and excise duties Lowering corporate tax Widening of the tax base and toning up the tax administration.

Page 70


Direct Taxes
Personal Income Tax
Exemption limit in Personal income tax raised by Rs. 15,000 from 2.25lac to 2.24lac for Senior citizen, by Rs. 10,000 from 1.8lac to 1.9lac for Women tax payers and by Rs. 10.000 from 1.5lac to 1.6lac for all other categories of Individual tax payers. Deduction u/s 80-DD in respect of maintenance, including medical treatment of a dependent who is a person with severe disability being raised from the present limit of Rs. 75,000 to Rs. 1lac. Surcharge on various Direct Taxes to be phased out; in the first instance, by eliminating the surcharge of 10% on Personal Income tax. Fringe benefit on the value of certain fringe benefits provided to employers their employees to be abolished. MAT to be increased to 15% of book profits form 10%. The period allowed to carry forward the tax credit under MAT to be extended from 7 yrs. To 10 yrs. CTT (commodity Transaction Tax) to be abolished.

No changes made in the Corporate Tax Rates

Page 71


Minimum Alternative Tax (MAT)

Normally, a company is liable to pay tax on the income computed in accordance with the provisions of the income tax Act, but the profit and loss account of the company is the prepared as per provisions of the Companies Act. There were large number of companies who had book profits as per their profit and loss account but were not paying any tax because income computed as per provisions of the income tax act was either nil or negative or insignificant. In such case, although the companies were showing book profits and declaring dividends to the shareholders, they were not paying any income tax. These companies are popularly known as Zero Tax companies. In order to bring such companies under the income tax act net, section 115JA introduced w.e.f. assessment year 1997-98. According to this section, if the taxable income of a company calculated under this act, in respect of previous year 1996-97 and onwards is less than 30% of its book profits, the total income of such company is chargeable to tax for the relevant previous year shall be deemed to an amount equal to 30% of such book profits. A new tax credit scheme is introduced by which MAT paid can be carried forward for set-off against tax payable during the subsequent five year period subject to certain conditions, as under: When a company pays tax under MAT, the tax credit earn by it shall be an amount which is the different between the amount payable under MAT and the regular tax. Regular tax in this case means the tax payable on the basis of normal computation of total income of the company. MAT credit will be allowed carry forward facility for a period of five assessment years immediately succeeding the assessment year in which MAT is paid. Unabsorbed MAT credit will be allowed to be accumulated subject to the five year carry forward limit. In the assessment year when regular tax becomes payable, the difference between the regular tax computed under MAT for that year will be set off against the MAT credit available. The credit allowed will not bear any interest

Page 72



The goods and services tax (GST) is a comprehensive value-added tax (VAT) on goods and services. France was the first country to introduce this system in 1954. Today, it has spread to over 140 countries. Through a tax credit mechanism, GST is collected on value-added goods and services at each stage of sale or purchase in the supply chain. GST paid on the procurement of goods and services can be set off against that payable on the supply of goods or services. But being the last person in the supply chain, the end consumer has to bear this tax and so, in many respects, GST is like a last-point retail tax. Many countries have a unified GST system. However, countries like Brazil and Canada follow a dual system wherein GST is levied by both federal and state or provincial governments. In India, a dual GST is being proposed wherein a central goods and services tax (CGST) and a state goods and services tax (SGST) will be levied on the taxable value of a transaction. The central and state governments are discussing the GST system proposed to be implemented in India from April1, 2010. Representing the states in the discussions is the empowered committee of state finance ministers.

Here are some questions on GST and their answers:

Will dual GST be levied in addition to the existing taxes? No. It is proposed that the CGST will subsume central excise duty (Cenvat), service tax, and additional duties of customs at the Central level; and valueadded tax, central sales tax, entertainment tax, luxury tax, octroi, lottery taxes, electricity duty, state surcharges What will be the rate of GST? /

The combined GST rate is currently being discussed by the Centre and the EC. The rate is expected to be in the range of 14-16 %. Once the total GST rate is determined, the states and the Centre have to agree on the CGST and SGST rates. Today, services are taxed at 10% and the combined incidence of indirect taxes on most goods is around 20%.
Page 73


Will prices go up after the implementation of GST?

In fact, the prices of commodities are expected to come down in the long run as dealers pass on the benefits of reduced tax incidence to consumers by slashing the prices of goods. What are the implications of GST on imports and exports? /

Imports would be subject to GST. Exports, however, will be zero-rated, meaning exporters of goods and services need not pay GST on their exports. GST paid by them on the procurement of goods and services will be refunded. What are the benefits of shifting to a dual GST system? /

Dual GST is expected to be a simple and transparent tax structure with only one or two rates of taxes. The result would be a reduction in the number of taxes at the Central and state levels, cut in effective tax rate for many goods, removal of the current cascading effect of taxes, reduction of transaction costs for taxpayers through simplified tax compliance, and increased tax collections due to wider tax base and better compliance. How will dual GST affect the fiscal health of states? /

Being a consumption-based tax, dual GST will result in better revenue collection for states with higher consumption of goods and services. The backward and less-developed states would see fall in collections. The Centre is expected to put in place a mechanism to compensate states for any revenue loss due to GST. The introduction of the GST system is by far the most important tax reform in India. Consensus and coordination among states is required for it to succeed. Before it can be introduced, the Centre and states have to sort out issues like agreement on GST rates, constitutional amendments empowering states to tax services, taxation on inter-state transactions of goods and services, drafting of CGST and SGST laws, consultation with all stakeholders including trade and industry associations before finalization, administrative

preparedness to implement the new tax regime and resolution of all other issues under discussion.

Page 74


Stocks which could benefit or lose on account of the Budget.

FERTILISER Nutrient based fertilizer pricing FACT, Nagarjuna Fertilizers, Tata Chemicals, SPIC, Zuari Chemicals, Chambal Fertilizer, RCF & GSFC ADVANTAGES

Subsidy to be given directly to farmer Good implement move but difficult to

AGRICULTURE Increased allocation for irrigation and farmer oriented policies Farmer loan waiver period extended by 6 months


Jain Irrigation, Finolex, United Phosphorus, KSB Pumps ADVANTAGES

RAILWAYS Allocation to railway increased by to Rs.15,800 crore from 10,800 crore

Kalindee Rail, Kernex, Texamaco, Titagarh Wagon ADVANTAGES

FMCG NREGA outlay hiked by 144%; provided work to 4 crore people


PSU BANKS Farmer loan waiver period extended by 6 months


Bond yields up on additional spending plan

SBI, Dena,Bank, UCO Bank, Vijaya Bank, Andhra Bank, IDBI, PNB, Bank of India & Canara Bank

POWER Rajiv Gandhi Vidyutikaran Yojana


Page 75

AMITY GLOBAL BUSINESS SCHOOL allocation hiked to Rs.7000 crore Siemens, REC, BHEL, Voltamp

INFRASTRUCTURE Rs.31,280 Bharat Nirman. crores allocated to


Corpus of Rural Infrastructure Development fund to be raised to Rs.14,000 cr. Rs.12,966 crores National Highway Plan

Lanco Infra, GVK Power, GMR Infra, IRB, Mundra Port, Marg Construction, Gammon India & IVRCL Infra.

BRANDED JEWELLERY Full exemption for branded gold, silver jewellery from excise duty


Titan Industries, Gitanjali Gems, ADVANTAGES

REALTY Allocation to Common Wealth up at Rs.3172 crore Rs.2000 crore allocated for rural housing 100,000 houses to be provided for paramilitary forces Huge infra fillip

DLF,JP Associates, Unitech, HDIL,HCC

AUTO Additional excise duty on cars with engine capacities of 2,000cc and above reduced by Rs 5,000 per unit Duty of petrol-driven trucks to 8 per cent from 20 per cent


Ashok Leyland, Tata Motors, Eicher Motors, M&M

TEXTILES Extension of the existing 2% interest subvention scheme for exporters till March 2010 restored an optional 4% duty on cotton textiles beyond the fibre stage Levy of 8% duty on man-made fibres and yarn from existing 4%


Arvind Mills, Alok Textiles, Century Textiles

Page 76

AMITY GLOBAL BUSINESS SCHOOL GAS To develop a blueprint for long distance gas highways leading to a National Gas Grid. This would facilitate transportation of gas across the length and breadth of the country. Gas distribution pipeline ADVANTAGES

Gail, LNG Petronet, Gujarat Gas Jindal Saw ADAVANTAGES

MEDIA DAVP extended . scheme for print media

Jagran Prakashan, Deccan Chronicle, HT Media

DEFENCE Increase outlay for defense will increased the demand for Defence related Equipments OIL EXPLORATION Tax holiday on commercial production of mineral oil and natural gas on NELP VIII Sec 801B Natural gas benefit extended to


BEL,BEML, Microwaves







ONGC,Hind Oil Exploration, Videocon Industries, Assam Co, Aban.Offshore, Great Offshore, Jindal Drilling & Shiv Vani.

INFRASTRUCTURE IIFCL to flexibility be given greater


Increase infra investment to 9% of GDP by 2014 Investments to the tune of Rs.100,000 crore to come into the sector NHAI allocation raised by 23% JNNURM allocation stepped up by 87% to 12,887 crore GMR Infra, L&T, GVK , Gammon, IRB Infra, Patel Engg, IVRCL Infra, RIIL

Page 77


Customs duty hiked by 5%

Dish TV, Wire & Wireless, Sun TV



Customs duty reduced from10% to 5%


WIND FARM 2.5% cut in CD for wind power equipments



AVIATION Increased the budget allocation to the civil aviation ministry to almost Rs12,165 crore. Abolition of FBT will save tax on staff hotel accommodation


Jet Airways, Spice, Kingfisher

Page 78



Research Design
It is conceptual structure within which research is conducted. It constitutes outlines regarding collection of data, analyzing of data and interpretation of data concerning to problem with economy. Determination of research design comes under planning function and we know the importance of planning. A good design is that design which is make keeping in view the objectives of the research and availability of TIME & MONEY

Research Methodology
Research methodology is a way to systematically solve the research problem. Research methodology is included the following: 1) Primary data collection 2) Secondary data collection

Primary data collection

Observation Interviewing Questioning

Secondary data collection

Books of Technical Analysis Various historical records Various websites

Page 79


Methodology Adopted:
To observe and probe the knowledge level and perceptions of the investors about Technical Analysis of securities, we have prepared a questionnaire containing 14 questions.

Sampling plan:
Sampling is an effective step in collection of primary data and has a great influence of quality of result. This include following: Population: The study is aimed to include the investors in India Infoline ltd. and from the outside also. Sample Size: The sample size for the research is 50 investors.

Data Analysis & Interpretation:

For the purpose of analyzing, raw data is summarized into charts and a result has been carried out. The questions which have alternative choices are analyzed by taking percentage. Proper analysis of the data has been made to get proper result

Page 80


1. For how many years you are investing in stock market? 2. What type of investment you prefer? Long term Mid term Short term 3. In which sector you invest. Rate it in ascending order from 1 to 4. Mutual fund Shares Bonds Debentures 4. What information you collect a about company before investing? Past performance History Market value If any other mention 5. Do you know about MACD? YES NO 6. Do you know about technical analysis of stocks? Yes No 7. Do you take any information from CNBCs analysis? Yes No 8. Answer the following Questions:Questions A Cant H.A. say 1. How much you satisfied from
CNBCS Analysis?

H.D. D

2. Do you think that Sensex will bound to 21000 by 2010? 3. Do you prefer investing in stocks in future? 4. Do you think investing in stock market is a risk factor? 5. Do you think investing in share market is based on fundamentals?
H.A-Highly Agree. A- Agree. D- Disagree. H.D.-Highly disagree

Page 81


9. Do you think that Technical Analysis Education should be provided to investors? Required Not required Partly required 10. How much do you classify your Financial/Investment knowledge level? High Somewhat Not very high Not at all 11. Which of the following is more important decision for you? Fundamentals Technical Both 12. How do you find the quality of equity research? Excellent Quality of writing Depth of Analysis Quality of recommendation 13. What would you like to add or improve in Technical Research? Good Average Below average


Thanks for your cooperation

Page 82


Analysis & interpretation of facts makes clear the idea about the studied effects. Following are some results from the survey of questionnaire.

Q. What type of investment you prefer?

Long Term Mid Term Short Term

Investment Priority

long term mid term short term

From the analysis of above question we can say that 44%of the investor Term investment, 38% investors prefer mid term investments and remaining 18% prefer short-term investments

Page 83


Q. In which sector you invest? Rate it in a descending order from 1 to4

Mutual fund Shares Bonds Debentures

From the rating of the above question, we can analyze that most of the investors in the Stock Market prefer to invest in shares, so Shares is the first preference of the investors. Mutual funds are the third preference and debentures are the least preference of the investors. Q. What information you collect about a company before Investing? Past Performance History Market value Other

40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

Percentage Column1 Column2

From the analysis of the above question we can say that Maximum number of investors pay attention on the Market value of the company before investing in that company, Another Information which the investors collect is to know the history of the company, after that Investors check the past performance of the company and the least attention is paid on any reasons like to take a look on the Profit Earning Ratio of the company, Financial Segment of the company, government policies and the most important is the companys present results.

Page 84


Q. Do you know about MACD? Yes No


Yes No

From the analysis of the above question we can say that only 30% of the investors know about MACD and remaining 70% of the Investors are unaware of the concept of MACD.

Page 85


Q. Do you know about Technical Analysis of Stocks?

Yes No


Yes No

Form the analysis of the above question we can say that 62% of the investors have knowledge about Technical Analysis of Stocks but the remaining 38% of the Investors are unaware of Technical Analysis of Stocks.

Q. Do you take any information from CNBCs analysts?

CNBC's analysts

Yes No

From the analysis of the above question we can say that 74%of the investors information from CNBCs analysts but the remaining 26% of the

Page 86


Investors dont take information from CNBCs analysts they invest on their own knowledge.

Q. Answer the following questions: How much you are satisfied from CNBCs analysts? Do you think that sensex will bound to touch 21000 by 2010? Do you prefer investing in stocks in future? Do you think investing in stock market is a risk factor? Do you think investing in stock market is based on fundamentals?

From the analysis of all the above questions we can say that the Investors are agree with the statement that they are satisfied from CNBC analysts. Most of the Investors cant say that the Sensex will bound to touch 20000 by 2010. Many Investors feels that investment in future is very risky. Very few of the Investors are highly agreed that investment in stock market is a risk factor. Very few numbers of Investors are agree that investing in stock market is based on fundamentals.

Q. Do you think that technical analysis Education should be provided to investors?

Technical Analysis

Required NR PR

From the analysis of the above question we can say that 72% of the Investors required Technical Analysis Education should be provided to
Page 87


Investors, only 6% say not required but 22% say Technical Analysis Education is partly required for the Investors.

Q. How do you classify your Financial/Investment knowledge level?

Financial /investment knowledge

High Somewhat Not very high Not at all

From the analysis of the above question we can say that 46%of the Investors have high knowledge of Financial/Investment, the remaining 30% of the Investors have somewhat knowledge, 18% of the investors have not very high knowledge and the remaining 6% of the Investors have not at all knowledge. They are unaware of the Investment knowledge.

Page 88


Q. Which of the below is more important decision for you? Fundamentals Technical Both

Fundamentals Technicals Both

From the analysis of the above question we can say that 44% of the investors take Technical Decisions important for them, remaining 22% take Fundamentals Decision important form them, but in the end 34% of the investors take both the decisions important for them.

Page 89



Findings of the study are that an investor while investing must kept some basic fundamentals during investment: Must go through the basic knowledge of that company the investor is looking to invest. Must take the budget preview while investing in equities. Must take at the 52 weeks working of the stock. Must take into consideration the market trend. Must take a watch on the global scenario. Must take into account the current taxation standards.

Page 90



As we all know stock market is done one of the markets which are very difficult to judge. But it is a small try to know the huge market and look to suggest some points for initial investor or existing investor. We can conclude that these are the some points.

1) Must look the working of the company for the past, present and future. 2) While investing must go through the working of the stock in which a investor is looking to invest for at least 52 weeks. 3) Must go through the changes in budget for that very sector or industry. 4) Must look to take High Risk for High Profits. 5) Dont depend only on the tips of the broker. Must do your own analysis also.

Page 91



No study is complete in itself. Despite of trying level best, there will still some limitations which remain there to draw fruitful conclusion. There are some practical problems which come across and could not be properly deal with.

Lack of awareness among investors regarding Technical Analysis of securities. Time is most important constraint of our study. The finding of this study is based on the expressed opinions of the respondents. Volatility in market at this stage is so much which creates lots of doubt in the mind of investor.

Page 92


Data collected from the government publications. Journals a) Business Websites b) Business India

D.E. Fishrers & R.J.Jordon, Securities Analysis &Portfolio Management

Page 93