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PANAMA CANAL
TO LOGISTICS AND TRADE
Jorge L. Quijano
Administrator Panama Canal Authority
Paris, France May 27, 2013
BIMCO
AGENDA
1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
Panama Canal Expansion Background Changes in world shipping and trade Implications of the expansion Opportunities Panama Canal Expansion update
(USD millions)
102
FY 2000 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005 2006
2007
2008
2009
Drilling and Blasting Barge Cutter Suction Dredger Backhoe Hydraulic Dredger
Tugboats
900.0 800.0
Historical
Historical
Forecast
508 Max. tonnage capacity of existing Canal: 355 Canal Tonnage Capacity
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Fiscal Year
2025
0.25 0.2
0.15 0.1 0.05 0 2007 -0.05 -0.1 -0.15 -0.2 Airborne Seaborne Land 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
US CENSUS: Interim Projections of the Total population for the United States
NORTH EUROPE, SPAIN, PORTUGAL, FRANCE, BELGIUM, GERMANY, NETHERLANDS, POLAND, IRELAND, UK, NORWAY, SWEDEN 4.0% Pop: 363M
SOUTHERN EUROPE, SWITZERLAND, ITALY, AUSTRIA, SLOV, CROACIA, GREECE, TURKEY +10.0% Pop: 188M
Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Chile +20.0% Pop: 85M Uruguay, Paraguay, Brazil, +18.0% Pop: 251M
16.0%
15.0% 8.2%
7.3%
7.0%
9.3%
8.9%
9.1%
7.9%
6.0%
6.3% 2.3%
10.0%
5.6%
4.5% 5.1%
5.7%
15.0
5.0%
0.0%
Million TEUs
10.0
-5.0%
5.0
-8.5%
-10.0%
-15.0%
0.0
-20.0%
0 2000-Q1 2000-Q3 2001-Q1 2001-Q3 2002-Q1 2002-Q3 2003-Q1 2003-Q3 2004-Q1 2004-Q3 2005-Q1 2005-Q3 2006-Q1 2006-Q3 2007-Q1 2007-Q3 2008-Q1 2008-Q3 2009-Q1 2009-Q3 2010-Q1 2010-Q3 2011-Q1 2011-Q3 2012-Q1 2012-Q3 2013-Q1
Quarters
Vessel size
Feeders 100-499 Feedermax 500-999 Handy 1000-1999 Sub-Panamax 2000-2999 Panamax 3000-5000 Neopanamax* 3500-13,200 Post Panamax* 13,200+ Total % Less than Panamax % Panamax % Neopanamax % Pospanamax
No. of vessels 372 806 1,244 669 933 1,033 49 5,106 60.5% 18.3% 20.2% 1.0%
Capacity (thousand s of TEUs) 7.3% 114.1 15.8% 602.1 24.4% 1,752.6 13.1% 1,701.1 18.3% 3,876.6 20.2% 7,687.2 1.0% 694.0 16,427.7 25.4% 23.6% 46.8% 4.2%
*Neopanamax estimated at a maximum range of 13200 TEU based on information provided by Samsung H.I. Source: ACP MEMN Analysis of the Fleet.
Number of Vessel
20-24
Feedermax Handy
15-19
10-14
Panamax
5-9
Neopanamax
0-4
Orderbook
Post Panamax
Sub-Panamax
IHS/CERA: Bunker HFO 380 EIA: Bunker EIA Diesel Fuel (distillate fuel oil) 6/barrel FAFA Forecast Future Analyst Forecast
2020: SOx-limits for fuel apply globally. MGO demands a premium > 50% of Heavy Fuel Oil
Price of Heavy Fuel Oil {HFO} will continue to rise in the long run (2.5% pa)
Vancouver Seattle New York Norfolk Charleston Savannah Jacksonville Houston Miami Manzanillo Lzaro Cardenas P. San Juan PR Caucedo Kingston Port of Spain Cartagena P. Cabello Manzanillo Cristobal Balboa Buenaventura Manta Guayaquil
Hamburg Rotterdam Antwerp Dunkirk Le Havre La Spezia Bilbao Naples Marin Valencia Gioia Tauro Tilbury Tangier
Dubai
Commercial Route Commercial Route Feeder Services Atlantic Feeder Services Pacific Total No. Of Services 24 9 33 Annual Capacity 4,038,138 4,574,394 8,612,582 No. of Average Vessel Vessels Size 74 66 140 1,904 6,072 Asia - USEC / Gulf WCSA - Europe Pendulum WCUS - Europe WCSA - ECUS Asia - Caribbean Australia - ECUS WCSA - Caribbean Australia - Europe Total
Source: ACP MEMN analysis with April information and Compair Data, 2013
No. Of Annual Services Capacity 12 5,506,506 7 2,429,676 2 984,666 2 807,538 2 782,144 1 479,402 1 354,572 1 167,484 1 125,386 29 11,637,374
No. of Average Vessel Vessels Size 112 4,426 53 3,549 27 4,721 21 3,821 13 3,797 12 4,597 10 3,400 4 1,606 6 2,405 258 4,073
Service A
4,500
468,000
Service B
4,500
104
468,000
Service AB
9,000
104
936,000
Result
-8
-104
Under this scenario, the carrier requires less vessels and less transits to deploy the same capacity, therefore providing savings to the carrier.
+ + =
7 7 7 7
8 8 8 8 -16
Under this scenario, the carrier takes advantage of economies of scale through the deployment of bigger vessels.
United States East Coast Ports Panama Canal Most Important Cargo Destination
NY/NJ: Deepening from 45 to 50 and elevating the Bayonne bridge from 151 to 215 Completion 2015 Baltimore: Deepening to 50 Completion 2012 Norfolk: Currenth depth 50, deepening to 55. No posted date information.
Savannah: Deepening from 42 to 48 Completion 2016 Jacksonville: Deepening from 40 to 50 and construction of new terminal Completion 2014 Miami: Deepening from 42 to 50 Completion 2015
Panama
Recife
San Antonio
IMPLICATIONS OF THE PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION FOR THE DRY BULK SEGMENT
1. The U.S. Gulf-Asia grain trade will become more competitive through the use of larger vessels.
IMPLICATIONS OF THE PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION FOR THE LIQUID BULK SEGMENT
2. The expanded Canal will be the first route of choice for LNG trades between Trinidad-Chile and Peru-Spain and for Shale Gas exports coming out of the U.S. destined to Asia.
PostPanamax
PostPanamax
PostPanamax
OPPORTUNITIES
Container Terminal
Ro- Ro Terminal
Vessel Repairs
Bunkering
Top-Off Operations
LNG Terminal
PSA
La Ensenada
88.9 has
Logistics Park
34 has
115 has
Potential opportunities
Growing use of Short Sea shipping in Central, South America, and the Caribbean using Panama as the hub. Locating Value Added Services and light manufacturing in Panama with a Ro-Ro transshipment terminal will bring:
strategic versatility to ensure an agile supply chain for global markets Allows for targeted pooling of different makes and models more specific to the destination market increasing responsiveness
Market Demand Potential Business Opportunities Existing and future Ro Ro terminal and capacity. Determine Gap between potential demand for a Ro - Ro Interviews with potential customers Capacity & Bottleneck Analysis Site selection Analysis ( based on market demand results) Terminal Conceptual Design Financial Analysis Business Plan Terminal Investment Plan (Capex/Opex) Preparation of Financial Statements Risk Map Assessment Sensitivity Analysis Legal due Diligence Final Report
PANAMA:
12.04 m 32.3 m
49 m
Program Components
17.66 M m3 Atlantic Site Post-Panamax Locks Increase of Gatun Lakes maximum operating level Atlantic entrance deepening and widening Existing Locks
26.7 m
27.1 m
Gatun Lake widening and deepening and widening of Gaillard Cut s navigation channels
Access channel
Pacific Site PostPanamax Locks Existing Locks
8.7 M m3
49 M m3
Program Components
17.66 M m3 Atlantic Site PostPanamax Locks Increase of Gatun Lakes maximum operating level Atlantic entrance deepening and widening
26.7 m
27.1 m
Gatun Lake widening and deepening and widening of Gaillard Cut s navigation channels
8.7 M m3
Pacific entrance
Pacific Access Channel 49 M m3
Scope of Contract: 8.7 M m3 Award: April 1, 2008 Amount: B/. 177,500,676.78 Company: Dredging International Amendment No. 12 : February 10, 2012 - Expansion Program deliveryable: Dec 31, 2012 - Termination of Contract: June 30, 2013
8.6 M m3 dredged
Actual
0% 50%
100%
100%
Scope of Contract: Design and Construction of Locks Award: July 15, 2009 Order to Proceed: August 25, 2009 Initial Amount + options: B/. 3,158,600,059 Consortium: Grupo Unidos por el Canal S.A. Sacyr Vallehermoso Impregilo Jan De Nul - CUSA Conclusion of the contract: October 21, 2014
Actual
0%
45%
50% 100%
UXO Removal
PAC : last award contract 7-Jan-10 Company: Consortium ICA-FCC-MECO Amount of award: B/. 267,798,795.99 Order to proceed: 22-Ene-10 Start date: 27-Apr-10 Estimated completion date: 31-Oct-13
0% 50%
Actual
77%
100%
Scope of Contract: 26 M m3 excavation Borinquen dam construction Clearing of 80 hectares of MEC. Award: January 7, 2010 Amount: B/. 267,798,795.99 Company: Consortium ICA-FCC-MECO Completion of contract: August 2, 2013
Actual
0% 50%
70%
100%
9m
Excavation and dredging at the northern entrance of the Access Channel to the New Locks
Scope of Contract: Deepening of 27.5m a 9.14m PLD Channel Width = 218m Length = 1.6km Volume approved 4 M m3 Award: August 16, 2010 Amount: B/. 54,550,647 Company: Jan De Nul n.v. Concluded: 17 October 2012
Actual
0% 50%
100%
100%
Excavation and dredging at the northern entrance Boho of the Access Channel to the New Locks
Actual
100%
Lago Gatn
Volume: 1.8M
Actual
m3/
1.8M
m3
100%
Buena Vista
Volume: 913K
San Pablo
Actual
m3/
913K m3
100%
Actual
Barro Colorado
34% Actual
100%
Gamboa
100%
Volume: 1.9M
Mamey
Actual
m3/
1.9M m3
86%
Volume: 2.3M
m3/
2.6M m3
Actual
0% 50%
83%
100%
100%
N
Quibian I dredge
Volume: 655K
m3
100%
Volume: 307K m3
Las Cascadas
Actual
100%
Volume: 412K m3
Empire Cunette
Actual
100%
Volume: 240K
m3
Actual
100%
Volume: 664K m3
Culebra Cucaracha
Actual
100%
Volume: 512K
Actual
m3
100%
Centenario Bridge
Paraiso
Volume: 204K m3
100%
100%
Cornelius
Mindi
Award: September 25, 2009 Amount: B/. 144,236,596.44 Company: Jan De Nul NV Conclusion of contract: April 25, 2013
Actual
0% 50%
100%
100%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
100% 45% 100% 100% 100% 70% 100% 85% 100% 14% 77%
Access channel
56.1%
Bidding and contracting Baseline Execution Baseline
Beginning of operations
PANAMA CANAL
TO LOGISTICS AND TRADE
Jorge L. Quijano
Administrator Panama Canal Authority
Paris, France May 27, 2013
BIMCO