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DAILY MCX NEWSLETTER

18 - FEB.-2014

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BULLION:
India Government has decided to maintain status quo with respect to import duty on gold which was raised to 10% in successive stages to curb the appetite for the yellow metal. P Chidambaram, Finance Minister was expected to reduce the import duty on gold bars by 2% in the interim budget presented to Parliament on Monday in view of the success attained in curbing current account deficit from record level of $88 bn to $45 bn in 2013-14. Chidambaram in a post-budget press conference said that an emerging nation like India can't afford to spend $50 to 60 bn every year on gold imports. There need to be restraints on gold buying as foreign exchange is required for several other vital resources to be imported for the industry, he said.

BASE METAL:
Barclays tracks close to 60% of the worlds copper production and when they say that refined copper output is about to increase this year, they mean what they say. After all, with the corporate results season on, the bank has found that for the 60% global production that they track, 9% of y/y output enhancement was seen in 2013. The higher treatment and refining charges, in fact the doubling of those, have incentivised smelters to fire all cylinders. Also, of the 51 mining entities that Barclays track, only 19 firms reported production drop in 2013.

ENERGY:
Before we delve into the wider aspects of WTI crude oil, let us just get into the real reasons behind the Barclays belief that the said variety is poised to maintain a level above $95/bbl in the days to come. In fact, the bank rules out the possibility of WTI exhibiting any weakness in the first quarter of 2014, thanks to the healthy nature of US crude oil demand and the situation of product inventories. Meanwhile, the Gulf Coast refinery runs, according to US EIA weekly data for the last week shows that, it has risen by 200 thousand b/d even as Cushing crude inventories drew by 2.6 mb.

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BULLION

GOLD (5 MAR.)
OUTLOOK:
TREND RESISTANCE SUPPORT STRATEGY : - CONSOLIDATE : - 30250, 30350 : - 30040, 29900 : - BUY ON DIPS

SILVER (5 MAR.)
OUTLOOK:
TREND RESISTANCE SUPPORT STRATEGY : - CONSOLIDATE : - 48000, 48500 : - 47540, 47280 : - BUY ON DIPS

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ENERGY

CRUDEOIL (19 FEB.)

OUTLOOK:
TREND RESISTANCE SUPPORT STRATEGY : - CONSOLIDATE : - 6260, 6320 : - 6150, 6100 : - BUY ON DIPS

NATURAL GAS (25 FEB.)

OUTLOOK:
TREND RESISTANCE SUPPORT STRATEGY : - CONSOLIDATE : - 340.00, 345.00 : - 332.50, 325.00 : - BUY ON DIPS

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BASE METAL

COPPER (28 FEB.)

OUTLOOK:
TREND RESISTANCE SUPPORT STRATEGY : - CONSOLIDATE : - 448.50, 452.00 : - 445.00, 442.00 : - BUY ON DIPS

LEAD (28 FEB.)

OUTLOOK:
TREND RESISTANCE SUPPORT STRATEGY : - CONSOLIDATE : - 133.20, 134.00 : - 131.50, 130.50 : - BUY ON DIPS

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ZINC (28 FEB.)

OUTLOOK:
TREND RESISTANCE SUPPORT STRATEGY : - CONSOLIDATE : - 128.50, 129.50 : - 126.60, 125.50 : - BUY ON DIPS

ALUMINUM (28 FEB.)

OUTLOOK:
TREND RESISTANCE SUPPORT STRATEGY : - CONSOLIDATE : - 106.20, 107.20 : - 104.50, 103.50 : - BUY ON DIPS

NICKEL (28 FEB.)

OUTLOOK:
TREND RESISTANCE SUPPORT STRATEGY : - CONSOLIDATE : - 895.00, 910.00 : - 870.00, 850.00 : - BUY ON DIPS

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GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDEOIL PALLANDIUM PLATINUM

1322.58 20.629 3.273 100.75 737.90 1422.00

USDINR EURUSD USDJPY USDCHF GBPUSD USDCAD

62.0900 01.3713 101.322 00.8918 01.6732 01.0957

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