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THE FX MONITOR

19 February 2014

GLOBAL MARKET BRIEFS

CURRENCY INDICES
INDEX AUD CAD DKK EUR GBP HKD NZD SEK USD LAST 69.2 110.14 103.76 110.887 85.9 94.8 77.99 118.5 80.026 % CHNG -0.43% 0.36% -0.07% -0.23% 0.11% 0.06% 0.12% 0.03% NET CHNG -0.30 0.40 EST 05:20 12:25 13:34 12:22 12:20 08:21 12:25 12:24 12:24

BOJ Gov Kuroda: Govt must continue to promote growth, structural reform. G20: Asset purchases to drive fractious groups debate in Sydney. US Treasury Secretary Lew: Considerable volatility in global markets, Japan economy largely driven by domestic demand in recent years, outlook has clouded. Fed adopts tough final capital rule for foreign banks. Australia aims for global growth agreement at G20 meeting. Australia Q4 Wage Price Index Total Hourly Pay at +0.7% q/q, +2.6% y/y, as expected. Australia Jan Westpac/MI leading Index at 98.51, Dec 98.66. United Kingdom Dec Average Earnings (ex-bonus) increase to +1.0 % (forecast 0.9 %) vs previous 0.9 %. United Kingdom Feb BOE MPC Vote Cut stays flat at 0. United Kingdom Feb BOE MPC Vote Unchanged stays flat at 9 (forecast 9) vs previous 9. United Kingdom Feb BOE MPC Vote Hike stays flat at 0. United Kingdom Dec Average Week Earnings 3mth y/y increase to +1.1 % (forecast 1.0 %) vs previous 0.9 %. United Kingdom Dec ILO Unemployment Rate increases to 7.2 % (forecast 7.1 %) vs previous 7.1 %. United Kingdom Jan Claimant Count Unemployment Change decreases to -27.6 k (forecast -20.0 k) vs previous -24.0 k. South Africa Jan CPI m/m increases to 0.7% (forecast 0.60%) vs previous 0.30 %; CPI y/y increases to 5.8% (fcast 5.7%) vs prev 5.40%. IMF says Portugal needs more spending rationalisation, sees no alternative to fiscal consolidation. IMF says Portugal 2013 deficit target of 5.5 pct/GDP expected to have been met with some margin. IMF says risks to meeting bailout targets remain high , especially legal challenges in constitutional court. Moody's: India's budget provision insufficient to cover fuel subsidies. ADB's Nakao: BOJ QE is positive for Asia as it stimulates Japanese investments in the region. ADB's Nakao: Emerging Asia must stick to sound macroeconomic policies, structural reform to cope with any impact of U.S. Fed tapering.

-0.079 -0.20 0.10 0.05 0.14 0.023

TOP BENCHMARK BONDS


NAME US 10Y Govt Bond EU 10Y Govt Bond JP 10Y Govt Bond GB 10Y Govt Bond FR 10Y Govt Bond IT 10Y Govt Bond CA 10Y Govt Bond CH 10Y Govt Bond YIELD 2.6818 1.646 0.606 2.707 2.283 3.687 2.418 1.005 YLD NET CHNG -0.028 -0.028 -0.002 -0.043 0.009 0.002 -0.024 -0.013

TOP EQUITY INDICES


Index DJ Industrial S&P 500 S&P/TSX Composite Bovespa FTSE 100 FTSE 100 EOD CAC 40 DAX 30 IBEX FTSE MIB STOXX 50 Nikkei 225 Hang Seng TR US Price Index QQQ Volatility STOXX 600 LAST 16,130.40 1,840.76 14,077.47 46,599.76 6,765.80 6,796.43 4,317.30 9,608.00 9,972.50 20,293.00 2,928.33 14,766.53 22,679.00 168.36 13.62 333.32 CHANGE -0.15% 0.12% 0.16% -2.05% -0.45% 0.90% -0.31% -0.54% -0.70% -0.91% -0.59% -0.52% 0.40% 0.22% 7.33% -0.41%

THE FX MONITOR

Italy outgoing Economy Minister Saccomanni says global growth vulnerable due to emerging market turbulence , G20 ready "to take any action needed" to underpin growth.

THE DAY AHEAD


N/A ECB Governing Council Meeting. No interest rate announcements scheduled 1330 GMT US Housing data will underscore the impact of the harsh weather on the economy. The Commerce Department is expected to report that housing starts fell to a 950,000-unit pace in January from 999,000 units in December. Building permits, which are not affected by the weather, are seen little changed at a 980,000-unit rate. 1330 GMT The Labor Department will also publish its revamped series for producer inflation. The January report will for the first time include services and construction. The headline index will now be called the Producer Price Index for final demand. 1330 GMT US Jan PPI, +0.1% m/m, +1.2% y/y expected; previous +0.4%, +1.2%. 1330 GMT US Jan- core, +0.1% m/m, +1.4% y/y expected; previous +0.3%, +1.4%. 1330 GMT Canada Wholesale Trade Dec, market expectation -0.5%, 0.0% previous. 1355 GMT Redbook Same Store Sales Index week Feb 15, previous +2.8%. 1900 GMT Minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve's January meeting will likely show officials remained quite comfortable with their plans to scale back their bond-buying stimulus, despite jobs data that showed hiring slowed sharply in December. At the same time, the Fed's policy-setting panel likely had quite a lively debate on how best to alter its guidance on interest rates. The Fed has said it would not consider raising rates at least until the jobless rate fell to 6.5 percent, as long as inflation remained contained. But as officials gathered for the Jan. 28-29 meeting, they were already looking at an unemployment rate that had dropped to 6.7 percent. 1715 GMT Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart speaks on the economic outlook at Mercer University. 1800 GMT Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard speaks on "U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy" before an Exchequer Club luncheon. 2145 GMT New Zealand Producer Prices - Inputs and Outputs for Q4, no forecast available 2330 GMT Japan Reuters Tankan for February, no forecast available. 2350 GMT Japan Trade balance for January is expected at a deficit of 2489 billion yen compared with a deficit of 1302 billion yen in December. 2350 GMT Japan Imports for January are expected to rise 21.8 percent compared with a rise of 24.7 percent in December. Exports for January are expected to rise 12.6 percent compared with a rise of 15.3 percent in December. 2350 GMT Japan Weekly Capital Flows Data, no forecast available. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams speaks on the economic outlook and its implications for monetary policy before the Money Marketers of New York University. Japan government is likely to issue monthly economic report for January . Trade data is also scheduled to be released. Japan is expected to post a record trade deficit in January as a weak yen pushes up the cost of imports and as export demand slows in a warning about the economic outlook, a survey showed. Trade balance for January is expected at a deficit of 2489 billion yen compared to a deficit of 1302 billion yen in December. The Brazilian government is expected to announce its new fiscal goal for 2014. Markets will be closely watching for a figure that President Dilma Rousseff hopes will ease investors fears and appease rating agencies threatening to downgrade the country's rating. A drought that has raised the government's energy bill could force policymakers to opt for a smaller fiscal savings target. Argentina too due to release unemployment figures for the fourth quarter.

E vents

1600 GMT German Chancellor Merkel, OECD Gurria speech/press conference in Paris. N/A Dallas Fed Fisher, St Louis Fed Bullard, other Fed speakers during US day. 1900 GMT FOMC January Policy Meeting minutes.

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THE FX MONITOR

CURRENCY SUMMARIES

EUR/USD static so far Wed with EUR/GBP buying the dominant theme but made little impact on the headline that was rooted to 1.3750-60. Corp buying was weighed against speculative top-picking for the lower than activity that was reported. The fact that EUR/ USD is so easily holding recent gains, despite the proximity to the year high, suggests another up-leg is imminent. Stops above 1.3780 and 1.3800 from most recent top-picking are the likely fuel. That said, the next move looks dependent on tomorrows euro zone PMIs. Until then EUR/USD set to remain in the Doldrums. USD/JPY reached 102.74 post BOJ peak Tues', before easing. 102.43-14 in Asia today and testing 102.00 bids since. Weak USD tone and mild Nikkei losses weighing overnight. Tech support resides at Tues' 101.76 early Asia low, then daily cloud base 101.53 and Mon's 101.38 range low thereafter. Offers thick 102.75-103.00 region. Option expiries today 102.00,101.50. GBP/USD trade all revolved around UK data. The initial move into the 1.6720-+30 window was a rally in pursuit of stops from those short on yesterdays CPI data. The sell-off that followed todays jobs report followed an unexpected rise in the UKs jobless rate to 7.2%. Specs were holding larger net longs after flushing the 1.6720+ stops and GBP/USD dropped towards pivotal 1.6650 as a result. Real money buyers were seen into the dip. Massive option interests are likely to dictate moves in the very short-term. GBP 1bln of vanilla option expiries seen 1.6650, 700 mln at 1.6625 and 1bln at 1.6600. These are way above average and likely magnetic in any event. In close proximity after the data, the expires are almost certain to influence near-term price action. USD/CHF beginning to look a little stretched to the bear side and with EUR/USD also threatening a near term top; out the risk is for spot to climb. Little through the European morning to change the fundamental backdrop although the Swiss ZEW disappointed, and on balance a slight adjustment is favoured. EUR/CHF remains tied up by the dollar moves and has little firm Wed bias. On the day, USD/CHF plays 0.8868/0.8889 and the cross 1.2211/1.2227. AUD/USD With Doji candle action Monday/Tuesday the prospects for a decent Wednesday move were looking limited and so far the AUD has been tied up in a tight 0.8989/0.9044 range. Asian buyers helped the market lift from the lows and Europe has done little to put of the very slight bull bias. The market looks lost above 0.9000 and the bear side is the risk still. AUD/JPY off its lows but struggling to unwind much of the Tues slide and EUR/AUD has climbed back into the 1.52s having based at 1.5091 last session.

CHART FOCUS OF THE DAY


GBP longs Fall Victim To Jobless Rate Rise, 30-Day Bollinger-Bands Diverge

UK jobless rate unexpectedly ticks higher to 7.2%. Jobless total falls 27k beating -20k forecasts. Evident in price action that specs ran long GBP into the event. Cable 1.6720-1.6662 after as weaker longs are flushed out. 1.6650 seen pivotal for short-term flows. Bids ahead, stops below. Stronger support at Jan 2 high 1.6605 & 200-HMA 1.6584. GBP/USD hit new multi-year highs at 1.6823 on Mon. Subsequent corrective moves to 1.6655 have occurred. 30-day BBs continue to diverge, highlighting the larger than usual ranges. Traders are short at 1.6680 while stop is at 1.6745.

03

THE FX MONITOR

GPB/USD TRADING PATTERN AFTER UK JOBLESS DATA

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THE FX MONITOR

FX TRADE SUMMARY

PAIR VWAP TWAP

EUR / USD 1.375030 1.375040

USD / JPY 102.073000 102.073000

EUR / NOK 8.317700 8.317720

USD / MXN 13.268520 13.268520

AUD / USD 0.903950 0.903930

USD / CAD 1.091420 1.091440

USD / HKD 7.755510 0.000000

USD / SGD 1.260700 1.260710

EUR / SEK 8.935040 8.934990

EUR / GBP 0.824590 0.824580

GBP / USD 1.667740 1.667730

EUR / DKK 7.462300 0.000000

NOK / SEK 1.074500 1.074460

***Notes: Trading activity: Percentage change in session daily volume relative to the one month average. VWAP: Volume weighted average price of trade in the most recent 30 minute time slice. TWAP: Trade weighted average price of trades in the most recent 30 minute time slice. Note that when no trades have occurred in the most recent 30 minute time slice, a 0 value is shown and the last available VWAP is displayed. Volume: Volume (in millions of base currency) traded in the specified time period. Trade Count: Number of trades transacted in the specified time period.

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THE FX MONITOR

ECONOMY WATCH

Japan Govt expects its Central Bank to achieve its 2 percent inflation target at the earliest possible time . Japan's cabinet office says that the economy is recovering moderately, backed by private consumption and pickup in capital spending. Japan Govt says the economy is making steady progress towards exiting 15 years of stubborn deflation. ADB's Nakao: Don't think U.S. Fed tapering will lead to recurrence of financial crisis in Asia. ADB's Nakao: China can sustain growth above 7 pct for time being. BOE: Past month's news strengthens sense of momentum in UK economy, see 0.9 pct Q1 growth, similar in Q2. BOE: CPI to be lower than expected due to sterlings appreciation, low global inflation pressures, fading one-off effects. BOE: Strong short-term bounce in productivity unlikely, but normalising banking sector may help. ECB: No psychology of deflation in Europe, inflation expectations anchored close to 2 percent . Japan Govt says prices are 'rising moderately', first such description since Oct 2008. Japan Govt raises view on exports, saying they are flat. Japan Govt raises view on employment situation, saying it is improving steadily. Indonesia FM sees 2014 growth at 5.0-6.0 pct, vs 6.0 pct budget forecast. Turkey Central Bank Survey sees the economys CPI rising 7.92 percent at year-end. Economists: Turkish lira could come under renewed pressure in the coming months. Turkey Central Bank expects inflation in the economy to remain above its 5 percent target for some time. BNP Paribas: Food prices in Brazil will show some short-term relief in the economys inflation. NIER: Sustained deflation in Sweden seems to be at distant. Riksbank expects its economic growth to pick up to 2.4 percent in 2014. Analysts: Swedens underlying inflation is not expected to reach target until the end of 2015. SEB: We don't think we are going to get much inflation in Sweden anyway. Riksbank forecasts its economys households' debt ratio to hit 180 percent . Analysts: Expectations that the Riksbank rates will fall or remain low for longer will do little to dampen demand for mortgages or concerns for long-term stable economic development. ECB Policy Maker: If there is a substantial wage rise in Germany, then we might see a certain self-correcting trend in Eurozone inflation. ECB policy maker says low Eurozone inflation and the strong euro could both start to self-correct this year without necessarily requiring any action from the Central Bank. ING: We do expect to see an uptick in UK inflation later this year with a strengthening labour market likely prompting a gradual rise in wages. ING: With sterling remaining strong, pushing down import costs, energy and commodity prices remaining well behaved and wage pressures limited, inflation in UK is likely to remain soft for several months. Absa Capital: We maintain that on balance a buoyant South African CPI reading should be rand positive from a real interest rate differential. Reuters Survey: Economists expect inflation in South Africa to have accelerated to 5.7 pct year-on-year in January. U.S. CBO estimates job losses of about 500,000 by late 2016 if minimum hourly wage is raised to $10.10 from $7.25. CBO says minimum wage increase could bring small decrease in U.S. Budget Deficits "for several years" but a small increase thereafter.

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THE FX MONITOR

FX TRADE VIEWS

ING: 102.85/95 yen resistance should hold for now. Citi: We could see some temporary downside for sterling in the near term . Traders: We expect the sterling support to continue to come in at $1.66 in the near-term. Traders say losses in the pound should be limited , because the jobs report and data about wage growth overall is not too bad. HSBC: We expect yuan to become fully convertible within five years . HSBC: Chinas yuan is on track to become the third largest trade settlement currency by 2015. China Central Bank: We will gradually perfect the renminbi (yuan) formation mechanism and expand the exchange rate's floating range in an orderly manner. ECB Official: Could imagine a situation where during this year there are some forces that could lead to an appreciation of the dollar again. ING: Russia Central Bank/Finance Ministry announcements on violence in Ukraine may well keep weakening momentum in the rouble. Traders forecast the Kenyan shilling to trade in the 86.00 to 86.50 range in coming days. Commercial Bank of Africa: We expect the Kenyan shilling to start taking a beating as we approach the end of the month. KCB Bank Group: Kenyan shilling is demand-driven at the moment, and we feel by next week it will be back up again, maybe to the 86.40 level. Indonesia FM sees 2014 average rupiah at 11,500-12,000 per dollar, vs 10,500 budget forecast. Traders: British pound would have to fall below $1.6450 to negate the current trend higher. RBS: We expect the pound to hit $1.69 by end of the first quarter. RBS: Anything in the $1.70 range would be quite a stretch for sterling. Cambridge Mercantile Group: Barring any surprises from the U.S. Fed release, the loonie will likely be stuck in a range between c$1.10 and the low c$1.09 area until the end of the week. Traders: Near term support for the kiwi is seen at $0.8290 . Traders: Initial aussie support is found at $0.8950 ahead of $0.8920. Dealers cite aussie stops above $0.9100 with the next level of resistance found at the double top formed in early December at $0.9170. Standard Chartered Bank: We'll see renewed weakness in the euro on better data out of the U.S. relative to Europe going forward. Standard Chartered Bank: We think it's fair to say that the $1.37-$1.38 euro area should be the top for now. Traders: Euro could face resistance at levels around $1.38 in the near term. Dealers expect the Sri Lankan Central Bank to keep its currency below 130.85 per dollar until April. Traders: Thai currency may also find support around 32.65. Traders expect the Thai baht to weaken to 33.00 per dollar. Traders: Emerging Asian currencies are expected to further weaken as the dollar is seen ultimately benefitting from the Feds reduction in its stimulus. Dealers expect the Hungarian forint to hover around 310 in the short term if risk aversion does not grow in global markets. Societe Generale: Hungary Central Banks dovishness could keep the forint under pressure.

07

THE FX MONITOR

POLICY WATCH

Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ: Accelerated yen sell-off reflects reinforced investor expectations that the BOJ may deliver more significant monetary easing later this year. BOJ Gov suggests no further Central Bank monetary policy easing steps are likely in the near term. Few traders bet the BOE rate rise might come much earlier than it expects. Bank of England expects to keep rates near record lows at least until the second quarter of next year. Analysts: Drop in UKs annual inflation rate below the Central Bank's target of 2 pct, and a rise in jobless rate should ease pressure on the BOE to raise interest rates sooner rather than later. Analysts: Recent rise in UK 4Q jobless rate blosters a view that its Central bank may keep monetary policy accommodative for sometime. Traders believe the Philippine Central Bank might come with a rate rise soon. ECB Official: We have an adaptive policy stance which will also to be included in the forward guidance the Central Bank is giving. Analysts: Brazilian Central Bank is expected to raise its benchmark rate in its upcoming review. Reuters Survey forecasts Brazil Central Bank to raise its selic rate by 25 to 50 bps . Reuters Survey: Forecasts for the Brazil Central Banks monthly rate ranges from 0.55 to 0.85 percent . Reuters Survey: Estimates for the Brazil Central Banks annual rate ranges from 5.49 to 5.68 percent. Traders price in a 24 percent chance of a Riksbank rate cut in either April or July. Nykredit: There is more probability of a first rate hike by the Riksbank to come later than our forecast of Q4/2014. Nykredit: If inflation in the Swedish economy continues to surprise on the downside in the coming months, a rate cut cannot be excluded. Economists: Fall in Swedens Jan CPI raises pressure on its Central Bank to cut rates. Sterling overnight inter-bank rates are pricing in a chance of a rate hike in 15 months' time. Analysts: Recent fall in British inflation reinforces the Central Banks message that there is no rush to raise interest rates. RBS: Recent CPI data gives the Bank of England a little bit more cover to hold to a mid-2015 tightening schedule. The U.S. Fed Chief indicates that the tapering will continue, as long as the economy improves as expected. Analysts: Bank of Japan may open for further easing once an increase in sales tax is enacted in April. Turkey Central Bank says it would maintain its tight monetary stance until there is a significant improvement in the outlook for inflation. Traders: We think the Chile Central Bank could cut its rates by 25 basis points again in March. Chile Central Bank estimates that in the coming months it might be necessary to increase the monetary stimulus to ensure that projected inflation will stand at 3 pct in the policy horizon.

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THE FX MONITOR

FX OPTIONS & ORDERS


CABLE GAMMA BID, HUGE EXPIRIES LOOM

AUD/USD VOLUME MEETS LIGHT DEMAND


GBP 3bln expiries between 1.6600-50 today underpin, 300mln at 1.6750. Volumes off Mondays highs as demand fades amid spot setback from 4yr high. 1mth atm is 7.7 vs 8.05 early Monday levels last seen September. 3mth atm 7.1 vs 7.45, 1yr 7.35 vs 7.5. 1mth RR retails topside bias (5yr high). 1wk volume 2.0 above realized at 9.75, BoE minutes, UK jobs today, retail sales Friday. Some fears of deeper spot/volume setback given recent rush for longs

Spot dip sub 0.9000 saw light volume demand in Asia today. 1mth atm back at 9.1 vs 8.8 (recent/lows since Nov were 8.5). Proximity to longer term lows and discount to realized attracts buyers. Seems dips back toward 8.75-8.8 will meet more demand . 3mth atm now 9.25 vs 9.05 Tues and 1yr 9.85 (was 9.7 last week). 1mth 25D RR little changed over the last week around 0.85 AUD puts.

CABLE 1MTH LOWER POST DATA


USD/JPY LONG GAMMA PRESSURES VOLUME

Cable spot off a touch after UK data as is 1mth atm volume. 1mth atm just sold at 7.65 vs 7.8 prior (8.05 is 4mth high Monday). Huge 1.6600-50 expiries today (3bln), likely to prop spot on setbacks. Implied above realized volumes to maintain pressure as spot consolidates. 1mth 25D RR traded flat pre data - posted 5yr high GBP calls 0.15 Thurs'.

Market tied to range, plenty of gamma longs in 101.50-103.50 zone. Implied volumes heavy as a result, though losses have been very light this week. 1mth atm is 8.7 from 8.95 on post BOJ spot spike Tues, 3mth 9.1 from 9.2. 1yr atm is 10.1 vs 10.2 this week and 1mth 25D RR 0.9 vs 1.1 JPY calls. Mid Jan and lows since Oct' in 1mth 8.3, 3mth 8.8 and 1yr already there at 10.1.

LARGER EXPIRIES INCLUDING DTCC

LITTLE INCENTIVE FOR EUR/USD VOLUME

GBP/USD: 1.6600 (1BLN), 1.6625 (700M), 1.6650 (1BLN), 1.6750 (300M). EUR/GBP: 0.8125, 0.8200 (400M), 0.8300 (200M). USD/CAD: 1.0900 (450M). AUD/USD: 0.8950/60, 0.9010, 0.9050, 0.9055, 0.9075. EUR/USD: 1.3600, 10, 25, 45, 1.3690 (250M), 1.3700, 1.3725. USD/JPY: 101.50 (700M), 102.00 (300M), 103.50 (600M).

EUR/USD tied to ranges, Realized low and little incentive for longs. Implied already at/near recent/6 year lows - but potential for more losses. 1mth testing 6.2 base, 3mth hit 6.5 Tues (6yr low), 1yr a tick above its 7.25 low. Risk reversals heavy - 1mth 25D 0.45, 6mth sold 1.0-0.95 EUR puts this week.

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INDIVIDUAL FORECASTS ON JPY & EUR


THE FX MONITOR
JPY Contributors 4CAST ALLIED IRISH ALPHA BANK AUREL BGC BANCO BPI BARCLAYS BBVA BCV GROUP BERLINER SPA BMO CAPITAL BNP PARIBAS BTMU CA-CIB COMMERZBANK CREDIT SUISSE DANSKE BANK DEKABANK DEUTSCHE BANK DNB DZ BANK EUROBANK HANDELSBANKE HELABA HSBC IDEAGLOBAL IFR MARKETS IHS GLOBAL INFORMA GLOBAL ING FINANCIAL JULIUS BAER LANDSBANKINN LLOYDS BANKING MIZUHO CORPORATE MORGAN STANLEY NATIONAL AUS NB FINANCIAL NOMURA OCBC POHJOLA BANK RABOBANK RBC RBI 1 MTH 105.00 105.00 104.50 100.00 105.00 103.00 104.00 103.30 104.00 104.50 106.00 104.00 104.77 103.00 106.23 104.00 105.00 105.00 104.00 103.00 104.40 104.50 103.00 103.00 101.00 105.00 103.19 104.00 105.00 105.00 105.40 105.00 106.00 103.71 104.00 104.00 104.00 105.57 102.00 104.00 103.00 104.00 3 MTHS 107.00 105.00 105.00 98.00 108.00 107.00 105.00 101.85 103.00 105.50 108.00 104.00 106.00 105.00 110.00 104.00 105.00 106.00 104.00 104.00 106.00 104.00 102.00 106.00 103.00 106.00 103.74 104.00 106.00 105.00 108.00 105.00 107.00 103.00 105.00 104.00 104.00 106.10 99.00 105.00 99.00 104.00 6 MTHS 109.00 107.00 106.00 95.00 110.00 107.00 110.00 100.00 99.00 107.00 112.00 106.00 109.00 107.00 113.33 108.00 110.00 109.00 105.00 105.00 107.00 103.00 102.00 103.00 110.00 110.00 104.43 106.00 108.00 105.00 110.00 105.00 108.00 103.00 107.00 106.00 106.00 106.90 107.00 105.50 95.00 105.00 12 MTHS 105.00 109.00 108.00 98.00 112.00 107.00 114.00 92.00 96.00 110.00 118.00 110.00 115.00 116.00 120.00 110.00 120.00 115.00 107.00 106.00 109.00 105.00 105.00 101.00 108.00 113.00 105.55 110.00 115.00 105.00 112.00 108.00 115.00 109.00 111.00 110.00 110.00 108.50 114.00 107.00 100.00 110.00 Contributors 4CAST ALLIED IRISH BARCLAYS BBVA BCV GROUP BMO CAPITAL BTMU CA-CIB COMMERZBANK CREDIT SUISSE DANSKE BANK DEUTSCHE BANK DZ BANK EUROBANK HANDELSBANKE HELABA HSBC IDEAGLOBAL IFR MARKETS IHS GLOBAL INFORMA GLOBAL ING FINANCIAL JULIUS BAER LANDSBANKINN LLOYDS BANKING MORGAN STANLEY NATIONAL AUS NOMURA OCBC RABOBANK RBC RBS SANTANDER SAXO BANK SCOTIABANK SEB SOCIETE GENERALE STANDARD CHARTERED TD SECURITIES UNICREDIT WELLS FARGO ZKB 1 MTH 1.3700 1.3500 1.3500 1.3300 1.3380 1.3650 1.3550 1.3535 1.3400 1.3500 1.3500 1.3500 1.3650 1.3570 1.3800 1.3300 1.3600 1.3150 1.3600 1.3600 1.3500 1.3500 1.3700 1.3450 1.3500 1.3600 1.3600 1.3600 1.3712 1.3600 1.3700 1.3700 1.3600 1.3400 1.3500 1.3600 1.3600 1.3500 1.3200 1.3600 1.3500 1.3613 EUR 3 MTHS 1.3600 1.3400 1.3200 1.3000 1.3430 1.3600 1.3400 1.3300 1.3300 1.3100 1.3200 1.3500 1.3500 1.3400 1.3600 1.3000 1.3500 1.3200 1.3850 1.3300 1.3500 1.3300 1.3800 1.3000 1.3200 1.3400 1.3600 1.3300 1.3653 1.3500 1.3900 1.3700 1.3600 1.3200 1.3300 1.3400 1.3300 1.3200 1.2700 1.3500 1.3500 1.3600 6 MTHS 1.3000 1.3200 1.3000 1.3000 1.2550 1.3450 1.3200 1.3000 1.3100 1.2900 1.3000 1.3200 1.3200 1.3200 1.2500 1.3000 1.3300 1.3000 1.4000 1.3000 1.3300 1.3000 1.3800 1.2500 1.2700 1.3100 1.3200 1.3000 1.3564 1.3300 1.3500 1.3240 1.3600 1.2600 1.3000 1.3100 1.3000 1.3100 1.2500 1.3600 1.3200 1.3400 12 MTHS 1.2000 1.3000 1.2700 1.3000 1.1700 1.3400 1.2600 1.2800 1.2700 1.2400 1.2600 1.2500 1.2700 1.3400 1.1000 1.2000 1.2800 1.2000 1.4500 1.2700 1.3000 1.2000 1.3800 1.2000 1.2300 1.2400 1.2700 1.2000 1.3385 1.2800 1.3000 1.2647 1.4000 1.1800 1.2500 1.2800 1.2500 1.3400 1.2200 1.4000 1.2800 1.3000

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JPY FORECAST CURVE


THE FX MONITOR

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW OF MAJOR CURRENCIES


JAPANESE YEN Indicator Growth Final GDP q/q Retail Sales y/y Household Spending y/y Prelim Industrial Production m/m Capital Spending q/y Trade Balance Current Account Tertiary Industry Activity m/m Core Machinery Orders m/m Inflation Tokyo Core CPI y/y Average Cash Earnings y/y Central Bank Monetary Policy Statement BOJ Press Conference Markets JGB 10 Years Yield Nikkei 225 Business Surveys BSI Manufacturing Index Tankan Manufacturing Index Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index 3-2-2014 3-31-2014 3-31-2014 9.7 16.0 20.0 15.2 12.0 14.0 down up up 3-10-2014 3-11-2014 2-19-2014 0.608% 14,766.53 2-18-2014 0.608% 14,843.24 No change down 2-27-2014 3-3-2014 0.7% 0.8% 0.7% 0.50% up up 3-5-2014 2-27-2014 2-27-2014 2-27-2014 3-2-2014 2-18-2014 3-9-2014 3-10-2014 3-10-2014 0.3 % 2.6% 0.7% 1.1% 0.015 -1.15T -0.2T -0.004 -0.157 0.5 % 4.00% 0.20% 0.10% 0% -1.35B -0.05T 0.008 0.093 down down down up up up down down down Next Latest Prior Fundamentals

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USD

THE FX MONITOR

Indicator Growth Factory Orders m/m Trade Balance Business Inventories m/m GDP Industrial Production m/m Personal Spending m/m TIC Long-Term Purchases Current Account Core Retail Sales m/m Retail Sales m/m Core Durable Goods Orders m/m Inflation Core CPI m/m Import Prices m/m PPI m/m Employment Non-Farm Employment Change Unemployment Rate Central Bank Federal Funds Rate Federal Budget Balance Markets 10 years Treasury Bonds yields S&P 500 Dow Jones Housing Building Permits m/m Existing Home Sales Pending Home Sales New Home Sales Consumer Surveys Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Business Surveys ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI ISM Manufacturing PMI NAHB Housing Market Index Flash Manufacturing PMI Empire State Manufacturing Index Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Chicago PMI

Next

Latest

Prior

Fundamentals

3-6-2014 3-7-2014 3-13-2014 2-28-2014 3-17-2014 3-3-2014 3-17-2014 3-20-2014 3-13-2014 2-14-2014 2-27-2014

-0.015 -38.7B 0.005 3.6 % -0.003 0.004 -45.9B -95B 0 0.002 -1.6%

0.015 -34.3B 0.004 2.8 % 0.003 0.6 % -28B -97B 0.003 0.004 1.2 %

down down down up down down down up down down down

2-20-2014 3-13-2014 2-19-2014

0.1 % 0.001 0.4%

0.2 % 0.002 -0.1 %

down down up

3-7-2014 3-7-2014

113K 6.6%

74K 6.7%

up up

3-19-2014 3-10-2014

< 0.25 % -10.4B 2-18-2014 2.703% 1,840.76 16,130.40

< 0.25 % 53.2B 2-17-2014 2.755% 1,838.63 16,154.39

unchanged down

down up down

2-19-2014 2-21-2014 2-28-2014 2-26-2014

0.99M 4.87M -8.7% 414K

1.01M 4.9M 0.2% 445K

down down down down

3-14-2014

81.2

81.2

unchanged

3-5-2014 3-3-2014 3-17-2014 2-20-2014 3-17-2014 2-20-2014 2-28-2014

54.0 51.3 46.0 53.7 4.5 9.4 59.6

53.0 56.5 56.0 54.4 12.5 7.0 59.1

down down down down down up up

12

EURO

THE FX MONITOR

Indicator Growth Flash GDP q/q German Prelim GDP q/q French Prelim GDP q/q Italian Prelim GDP q/q Spanish Flash GDP q/q German Trade Balance Current Account Retail Sales m/m German Retail Sales m/m French Consumer Spending m/m Factory Orders m/m Industrial Production m/m German Industrial Production m/m French Industrial Production m/m Inflation CPI Flash Estimate y/y CPI y/y Core CPI y/y German Prelim CPI m/m German PPI m/m Employment Employment Change q/q German Unemployment Change French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls q/q Spanish Unemployment Change Unemployment Rate Spanish Unemployment Rate Central Bank Minimum Bid Rate ECB President Draghi Speaks M3 Money Supply y/y Markets DAX CAC40 FTSEMIB IBEX 10 years German Bond yields 10 years French Bond yields 10 years Italian Bond yields 10 years Spanish Bond yields Housing Spanish HPI q/q Consumer Surveys ZEW Economic Sentiment German ZEW Economic Sentiment GfK German Consumer Climate

Next

Latest

Prior

Fundamentals

3-15-2014 3-15-2014 3-15-2014 3-15-2014 4-30-2014 3-11-2014 3-21-2014 4-3-2014 2-28-2014 2-28-2014 3-6-2014 3-12-2014 3-7-2014 3-10-2014

0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 18.5B 21.3B -1.6% -2.5% -0.1% -0.5% -0.007 -0.6% -0.003

0.1 % 0.3 % -0.1 % -0.1 % 0.1 % 18.9B 23.5B 1.4% 1.5% 1.4% 2.1% 0.016 1.9% 0.012

up up up up up down up down down down up down down down

2-28-2014 2-24-2014 2-24-2014 2-26-2014 2-20-2014

0.7% 0.8 % 0.9 % -0.6% 0.001

0.8 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.4 % -0.001

down up no change down up

2-27-2014 5-15-2014 5-2-2014 2-28-2014 4-24-2014

-28K 0.001 -107.6K 12.0 % 26.3%

-15K -0.1 % -2.5K 12.1 % 26 %

down up up down up

3-6-2014

0.25 %

0.25 %

no change

1.4 % 2-18-2014 9,659.78 4,330.71 20,478.53 10,042.70 1.667% 2.245% 3.563% 3.497%

2% 2-17-2014 9,656.76 4,335.17 20,459.65 10,118.60 1.686% 2.283% 3.619% 3.342%

down

up down up down down down down up

2-28-2014

-0.4 %

-0.9 %

up

3-18-2014 3-18-2014 2-26-2014

68.5 55.7 8.20

73.3 61.7 7.60

down down up

13

EURO

THE FX MONITOR

Indicator Business Surveys German IFO Business Climate Flash Manufacturing PMI German Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Manufacturing PMI Italian Manufacturing PMI Spanish Manufacturing PMI Flash Services PMI German Flash Services PMI French Flash Services PMI Italian Services PMI Spanish Services PMI SWISS FRANC Indicator Growth GDP q/q KOF Economic Barometer Retail Sales y/y Inflation CPI m/m PPI m/m Employment Employment Level Central Bank Libor Rate SNB Monetary Policy Assessment Foreign Currency Reserves Markets 10 Years Government Bond Yields SMI Consumer Surveys ZEW Economic Expectations Business Surveys SVME PMI

Next

Latest

Prior

Fundamentals

2-24-2014 2-20-2014 2-20-2014 2-20-2014 3-3-2014 3-3-2014 2-20-2014 2-20-2014 2-20-2014 3-5-2014 3-5-2014

110.6 53.9 56.3 48.8 53.1 52.2 51.9 53.6 48.6 49.4 54.9

109.5 51.0 54.2 47.1 53.3 50.8 52.7 53.5 47.8 47.9 54.2

up up up up up up up down up up up

Next

Latest

Prior

Fundamentals

2-27-2014 2-27-2014 3-5-2014

0.5 % 1.98 0.023

0.5 % 1.95 0.042

no change up down

3-6-2014 3-13-2014

-0.003 0.0%

-0.002 0.0%

down no change

2-25-2014

4.2M

4.17M

up

3-20-2014 3-20-2014 3-6-2014

< 0.25 %

< 0.25 %

no change

437.7B 2-18-2014 1.024% 8,419.92

435.2B 2-17-2014 1.032% 8,415.67

down

down up

3-19-2014

28.7

36.4

up

56.5

54.2

up

14

CANADIAN DOLLAR

THE FX MONITOR

Indicator Growth Manufacturing Sales m/m Trade Balance GDP m/m Current Account Retail Sales m/m Core Retail Sales m/m Wholesale Sales m/m Foreign Securities Purchases Inflation Core CPI m/m CPI m/m RMPI m/m Labor Productivity q/q Employment Employment Change q/q Unemployment Rate Central Bank Overnight Rate Markets 10 years Canadian Government Bond Yields S&P/TSX Housing Building Permits m/m NHPI m/m Business Surveys Ivey PMI STERLING Indicator Growth GDP Prelim Manufacturing Production m/m Retail Sales m/m Trade Balance Current Account Public Sector Net Borrowing Prelim Business Investment q/q Net Lending to Individuals m/m BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y Inflation CPI y/y PPI Input m/m RPI y/y Average Earnings Index 3m/y Employment Claimant Count Change Unemployment Rate

Next

Latest

Prior

Fundamentals

3-18-2014 3-7-2014 2-28-2014 2-27-2014 2-21-2014 2-21-2014 2-19-2014 3-17-2014

-0.009 -1.7B 0.002 -15.5B 0.6% 0.4% 0 -4.28B

0.005 0.1B 0.3 % -15.9B -0.1% 0.4% 0.014 9.07B

down up down up up up down down

2-21-2014 2-21-2014 3-3-2014 3-7-2014

-0.4% -0.2 % 1.9% 0.2 %

-0.1% 0% -4.1% 0.4 %

down down down down

3-7-2014 3-7-2014

29.4K 7.0%

-45.9K 7.2%

up down

3-5-2014

1% 2-18-2014 2.442% 14,077.47

1% 2-17-2014 2.479% 14,054.76

no change

down up

6-3-2014 3-13-2014

-4.1% 0.001

-0.067 0

down up

2-7-2014

46.3

53.7

down

Next

Latest

Prior

Fundamentals

29/4/2014 3-11-2014 2-20-2014 3-12-2014 26-3-2014 2-21-2014 2-26-2014 2-28-2014 3-3-2014

0.7 % 0.3% 2.6% -7.7B -20.7B 10.4B 1.4 % 2.3B 0.039

0.8 % 0.0% 0.3% -9.7B -13.8B 15.1B -2.7 % 1.5B 0.004

no change up up up down up up down up

3-25-2014 3-25-2014 3-25-2014 2-19-2014

1.9% -0.9% 2.8% 0.9%

2.0% -0.7 % 2.7% 0.9%

down down up no change

3-19-2014 3-19-2014

-27.6 7.2%

-24.0K 7.1%

up down

15

STERLING

THE FX MONITOR

Indicator Central Bank Official Bank Rate Markets FTSE 100 10 Years Guilt Yields Housing BBA Mortgage Approvals Nationwide HPI m/m Halifax HPI m/m Consumer Surveys Consumer Inflation Expectations Business Surveys CBI Industrial Order Expectations CBI Realized Sales Manufacturing PMI Construction PMI Services PMI NZ DOLLAR Growth GDP q/q Current Account Trade Balance Retail Sales q/q Core Retail Sales q/q Inflation CPI q/q PPI Input q/q Overseas Trade Index q/q Employment Unemployment Rate Employment Change q/q Central Bank Official Cash Rate RBNZ Press Conference RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement Markets NZX 50 10 Years Government Bond Yields Consumer Surveys Westpac Consumer Sentiment Business Surveys ANZ Business Confidence Business NZ Manufacturing Index Inflation Expectations q/q NZIER Business Confidence

Next

Latest

Prior

Fundamentals

3-6-2014

0.5 % 2-18-2014 6,796.43 2.753%

0.5 % 2-17-2014 6,736.00 2.789%

no change

up down

2-19-2014 2-28-2014 3-6-2014

46.5K 0.7% 1.1%

44.0K 1.4 % -0.6%

up down up

3-7-2014

3.6 %

3.2 %

up

2-17-2014 2-24-2014 3-3-2014 3-4-2014 3-5-2014

-2.0 14.0 56.7 64.6 58.3

12.0 34.0 57.3 62.1 58.8

down down down down down

3-19-2014 18-3-2014 2-27-2014 5-13-2014 5-13-2014 -4.478B 523M 0.012 0.75

0.2 % -1.25B 183M 0.002 -0.002 down up up up

4-15-2014 2-19-2014 3-2-2014

0.1% 2.2 % 7.5 %

0.9 % 0.6 % 4.7 %

down up up

5-6-2014 5-6-2014

0.06 0.011

6.4 % 0.012

up down

3-12-2014 3-12-2014 3-12-2014

2.5 %

2.5 %

unchanged

up 2-19-2014 4,914.14 4.595% 2-18-2014 4,895.10 4.620% up down

3-16-2014

120.1

115.4

up

2-27-2014 3-11-2014 2-24-2014 4-7-2014

64.1 56.2 2.3 % 52.0

60.5 56.4 2.4 % 38.0

up down down up

16

AUSSIE

THE FX MONITOR

Indicator Growth GDP q/q Retail Sales m/m Trade Balance Current Account Company Operating Profits q/q Private Sector Credit m/m CB Leading Index m/m New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m Inflation CPI q/q Trimmed Mean CPI q/q PPI q/q Import Prices q/q Wage Price Index q/q Employment Employment Change Unemployment Rate ANZ Job Advertisements m/m Central Bank Cash Rate RBA Rate Statement Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Markets ASX Australian Government Bonds Yields Housing Building Approvals m/m Home Loans m/m HIA New Home Sales m/m Construction Work Done q/q HPI q/q Consumer Surveys MI Inflation Expectations Westpac Consumer Sentiment Business Surveys NAB Business Confidence NAB Quarterly Business Confidence

Next

Latest

Prior

Fundamentals

3-4-2014 3-5-2014 3-5-2014 3-3-2014 3-2-2014 2-27-2014 3-16-2014 3-16-2014

0.6 % 0.5% 0.47B -12.7B 3.9 % 0.5% 0.5 % -0.035

0.7 % 0.7% -0.12B -12.1B 0.4 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.014

down down down down up up up down

4-22-2014 4-22-2014 5-1-2014 4-30-2014 5-20-2014

0.8% 0.009 0.2% -0.6% 0.7%

1.2 % 0.7 % 1.3 % 6.1 % 0.5 %

down up down down down

3-10-2014 3-10-2014 3-6-2014

-3.7K 6.0% -0.003

-22.6K 5.8 % -0.008

up up up

3-3-2014 5-8-2014 3-17-2014

2.5 %

2.5 %

unchanged

2-19-2014 5,408.24 4.154%

2-18-2014 5,392.82 4.194% up down

3-3-2014 3-11-2014 2-27-2014 2-25-2014 3-5-2014

-0.029 -0.019 -0.4% 2.7 % 0.034

-0.003 0.014 -3.8 % 0.1 % 1.9 %

down down down up up

3-11-2014 3-6-2014

0.023 -0.03

0.023 -0.017

unchanged down

3-10-2014 4-16-2014

8.0 8.0

6.0 5.0

up up

17

G7 MARKET OVERVIEW
THE FX MONITOR
Global Indices CRB Index Baltic Exch Dry Index iTraxx 5Yr Sov Index TR Global Index 5Y Benchmak Bonds CA 5Y T-Bond FR 5Y BTAN DE 5Y Bund IT 5Y BTP JP 5Y JGB GB 5Y Gilt US 5Y Treasury Prime Rates CA O/N Target Rate EZ ECB Refinancing Rate JP O/N Target Rate GB BoE Bank Rate US Fed Funds Target Rate 5 Yr Swap Rates CAD 5Y IRS EUR 5Y IRS JPY 5Y IRS GBP 5Y IRS USD 5Y IRS O/N Repo Rates CAD ON Repo Rate USD ON Treasury Repo Yield 298.4919 1,146 275.97 166.51 Last Yld 1.603 0.972 0.636 2.115 0.186 1.599 1.4539 Last 1.00 0.25 0.1 0.5 0.25 Last 1.98 0.9695 0.2938 1.915 1.537 Last 0.09 YLD Net Chg 16.0 -2.12 -0.16 Net Chng -0.015 -0.033 -0.026 0.007 -0.002 -0.044 -0.025 Prior 0.75 0.25 0.30 1.00 1.00 Net Chng 0.00 -0.0115 -0.0175 -0.0358 -0.043 Prior 1.02 0.09 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1MTH IBOR Rates CA 1M CDOR EZ 1M EURIBOR JP 1M TIBOR GB 1M LIBOR US 1M Fixing -1.65 -3.5 -0.17 0.00 USD/CAD EUR/USD 7.38 -0.23 0.27 5 Yr Sovereign CDs Rates 0.00 CA 5Y USD SNRFOR FR 5Y USD SNRFOR DE 5Y USD SNRFOR IT 5Y USD SNRFOR JP 5Y USD SNRFOR Last Prior GB 5Y USD SNRFOR US 5Y EUR SNRFOR 1.22 0.224 0.14625 1.22 0.224 0.1475 O/N Deposit Rates CAD OND EUR OND JPY OND GBP OND 0.4825 0.154 0.4825 0.1535 USD OND EOD Spread 31.06 54.14 24.99 149.56 47.09 28.06 28.96 EOD Spread 0.9 0.08 0.0001 0.4 0.09 Net Chng -0.01 -0.49 0.00 -3.47 0.00 0.02 -0.01 Net Chng 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 Global Rates 10Yr U.S. Treasury 10Yr JGB 10Yr Bund 10Yr Gilt FX Rates USD/CAD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD FX 1MTH F/W Rates 2.68 0.606 1.65 2.707 Last Bid 1.0926 1.3747 101.98 1.6661 Last Bid -0.03 -0.002 -0.025 -0.042 Commodities Gold Spot Copper Future Coffee Future Wheat Future 1,319.39 3.3405 151.65 688 -1.6 -1.00 2.25 Natural Gas Future Heating Oil Future Net Chng -0.0019 -0.001 -0.37 -0.0022 Net Chng Basic Material Price Return Indices CA Basic Materials FR Basic Materials DE Basic Materials JP Basic Materials GB Basic Materials US Basic Materials Last 347.12 179.2 331.6 130.23 407.45 246.98 Prior -0.58 -2.04 -0.85 -1.32 5.818 3.095 0.267 -0.006 Energy Brent Crude Future West Texas Crude 110.23 102.78 -0.23 0.35

18

THE FX MONITOR

TOP STORIES

The euro was holding broad-based gains, having darted higher against the yen and sterling, while the dollar took a hit from soft economic data and news that foreign investors had been heavy sellers of U.S. assets. The Australian and New Zealand dollars took a breather against their U.S. counterpart , having failed again to break major chart resistance, while the euro made broad inroads following encouraging trade data in Europe. The South Korean won ended flat in domestic trade , erasing a day earlier in the day as offshore dollar bids were matched by exporters' dollar-sales. China's yuan slid 0.1 percent against the dollar, with traders suspecting the central bank had intervened to prop up the greenback in a signal it may be more tolerant of mild yuan depreciation in the near term. Increasing political tensions in Thailand weighed on the baht , as emerging Asian currencies softened amid worries about a slowing U.S. economy and China's efforts to tighten lending . The Sri Lankan rupee traded steady as state banks sold dollars to offset demand for the U.S. currency from importers and on stock-related outflows, dealers said. Gold eased a touch in early trade but remained near the highest level in more than three months as lingering worries about global economic growth burnished its safe haven appeal. Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) and Deutsche Bank are reviewing rules on currency dealers trading with their own money, sources said, as regulators investigate possible price fixing in foreign exchange markets. The Canadian dollar firmed against the greenback, extending this month's bounce-back from January's heavy slump, while investors looked ahead to inflation data later in the week. Asian share markets were in hesitant mood as investors keep a wary eye on interest rates in China, though the euro left the dollar in its dust after soft U.S. economic data argued for the Federal Reserve to be patient on stimulus. The United States expressed concern about whether domestic demand will remain a principal driver of Japan's economy. Australia will use its presidency of the Group of 20 advanced and emerging economies to push for agreements on strengthening global growth and to generate ideas on funding public infrastructure , Treasurer Joe Hockey said. A string of recent reforms should help lift foreign direct investment in Mexico to between $30 billion and $40 billion per year by 2016, the country's economy minister said. Investors tuned in to Indian Finance Minister P. Chidambarams last budget speech expecting realism. They got treated to a magic show instead. A plunge in U.S. homebuilder confidence reported reflects a range of problems facing the construction industry seven years after the housing crash, challenges that go deeper than the severe winter weather blamed for much of the gloom. The U.S. Federal Reserve adopted tight new rules for foreign banks to shield the U.S. taxpayer from costly bailouts, ceding only minor concessions despite pressure from abroad to weaken the rule. Brent crude held above $110 a barrel, underpinned by geopolitical concerns in Africa and Venezuela, while U.S. oil traded near a four-month high amid strong winter demand.

19

THE FX MONITOR
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