Vulnerability Assessment of Tropical Cyclones in Coastal Bangladesh

Presented BY Istiak Ahmed Bhuyan Thomas Linsenmeyer Nashid Kamal Khadem Kang Shou Lu
Department of Geography and Environmental Planning Towson University
The 36th Annual Applied Geography Conference October 30-November 1, 2013 Annapolis, Maryland 76102

Introduction
History of Cyclones in Bangladesh
Last 50 years there are 7 major Cyclones, that cause deaths more than 10,000. Two of them (1970 & 1991) are in the Worlds deadliest Natural Disaster list. Geography of Bangladesh makes even Low intensity Cyclones deadly. Tropical Cyclone Mahasen, is forecast to make landfall late Thursday or early Friday (BDT) in southeastern Bangladesh, near the city of Chittagong. It is likely to bring strong wind and heavy rain to the surrounding region.

Introduction
Bangladesh is widely recognized to be one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. Cyclones and storm surges have frequently devastated lives and property in coastal zone Bangladesh. Most studies focused on the economic loss, landfall of the cyclone but fewer attempt has been made to asses the shelter capacity and social vulnerability. This study attempts to assess the vulnerability of affected population on different climatic scenarios and shelter capacity. It will help the policy makers, emergency management agencies for better evacuation planning.

Introduction
Objectives
Determine inundated areas under different surge scenarios Assess the population at risk due to storm surges of cyclones Assess the capacity of and needs for cyclone shelters threatened in coastal Bangladesh

Study Area

Coastal Districts of Bangladesh

Methods
1. Data Sourses
Cyclones
Cyclone impact data including Wind Speed, Surge Height, and Tracks. SOURCE :Bangladesh Metrological Department (1960-2009)

Population
2010 Census Data (processed by the authors) at the district level. Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics

Elevation
Digital Elevation Model (DEM) , USGS, 90 m x 90 m Shuttle Radar Terrain Model (SRTM) USGS, CEGIS, CDMP.

Cyclone shelters
Point data with attributes including capacity, usage status, etc, DMB, CDMP.

Methods
2. Analytical Sequence of the Study
Cyclone Impact Data (Wind Speed, Surge Height) Collection SOURCE :Bangladesh Metrological Department (1960-2009) Socio-Economic Data SOURCE: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics Historical Maximum Surge Height Historical Average Surge Height Predicted Extreme Surge Height* Digital Elevation Model (DEM) Shuttle Radar Terrain Model (SRTM)

GIS Model (ArcGIS Model Builder)

Vulnerability Assessment

Inundation Map Historical Average Historical Maximum Predicted Extreme

Shelters at Risk

Population at Risk

Areas at Risk

*Predicted Extreme Surge height for wind speed with return period 100 years

Methods
3. Deriving Assessment Scenarios
Mainly Based on Storm Surge Heights
Historical (1960-2008) Predicted for the worst scenario

Three Scenarios
Historical Average Surge Heights = 4.6 m Historical Maximum Surge Heights = 10.6 m Predicted Extreme Surge Heights = 11.6

Methods
3. Deriving Assessment Scenarios
Prediction of Extreme Surge height
Return period : T = 100 years selected as the extreme case Log Pearson III: used for estimating the wind speed:
Return period (yr) Wind Speed (km/h) T=25 241 T=50 260 T=100 277 T=200 293

Empirical Relationship between Surge height and Wind speed

Methods
3. Deriving Assessment Scenarios
Prediction of Extreme Surge height
Relationship between Surge height and Wind speed At the 95% confidence level Surge height = 11.6 m (should be reported later)

Methods
4. ArcGIS Models for Surge Runup and Mapping
Digital Elevation Model (DEM) Shuttle Radar Terrain Model (SRTM)

Cyclone Impact Data (Wind Speed, Surge Height) Collection SOURCE :Bangladesh Metrological Department (1960-2009)

Historical Maximum Surge Height Historical Average Surge Height Predicted Extreme Surge Height*

GIS Model (ArcGIS Model Builder)

Inundation Map Historical Average Historical Maximum Predicted Extreme

Results
1. Summary of Vulnerability under Three Surge Scenarios
Surge Scenarios
Inundated Area (sq Km) Affected Population Affected Shelters Capacity of the Shelters

Average Height
7,035.28

Maximum Height
22,176.99

Extreme Height
23,227.26

Total

15.63

49.26

51.60

45,017.38

15,271,630 51.95

22,550,672

76.71

22,779,315 77.48 29,398,509

570

20.39

2,211

79.08

2,313

82.73

2,796

586,593

19.64

2,337,791

78.28

2,457,997

82.30

2,986,577

Results
2. Areas at Risk (1/3)
Inundation at historical average surge height (h=4.6m)

Results
2. Areas at Risk (2/3)
Inundation at historical maximum surge height (h=10.6m)

Results
2. Areas at Risk (3/3)
Inundation at predicted extreme surge height (h=11.6m)

Results
3. Population and Shelters at Risk
Risk at Average Surge Height (4.6m)

Results
3. Population and Shelters at Risk Risk at Maximum Surge Height (10.6m)

Results
3. Population and Shelters at Risk Risk at the Extreme Surge Height (11.6m)

Results (cont)
For surge height of 4.6m total 15,271,630 people will be affected with 15.63% of the region will be inundated. But the situation is more severe for the predicted extreme condition with 51.60% area inundated affection 22,779,315 people. Both the cases, the existing cyclone shelters are inadequate to provide the necessary support. To minimize the damage, instead of developing large cyclone shelters, a dense network of small, sturdy and safe multipurpose buildings should be developed. Considering the population density, cyclone shelters

should be established within a 2 km walking distance of households and

villages.

Limitations
Lack of High Resolution Terrain Data Less availability of Cyclone related data i.e. tidal situations, wave simulations etc Socio-Economic data are estimated from 2010 census report does not have the migration population The model built in this simulation does not take into account the effects that reefs, buildings, rivers, canals, streams, and other factors may have on the cyclone surge, and therefore on the actual area impacted by the surge run-up

Usages
This study will be useful for policy makers, emergency management agencies, and public health personnel to help reduce damage caused by cyclones in Bangladesh. This work will bridge the existing research gap and will provide a research framework for future studies. Should provide useful information about cyclone risk management and should be helpful in assigning priority for the development of very high risk areas due to surge, and the construction and development sustainable cyclone shelters. This study may have considerable management implications for emergency preparedness, including aid and relief operation in high risk areas in the future.

Conclusion
This study has examined the extent of storm surge for different scenarios and the inundation map was produced for the coastal zone of Bangladesh. Attempts were also made to identify the vulnerable population group with shelters affected by surge From an academic point of view, there is a need for further research on disaster-induced risks, particularly in developing countries where the topic has received scant attention.

Thank You!

Questions and Suggestions?

Contact Istiak Bhuyan ibhuya1@students.towson.edu Kang Shou Lu, PhD kshoulu@towson.edu
Department of Geography and Environmental Planning Towson University, Maryland, USA
The 36th Annual Applied Geography Conference October 30-November 1, 2013 Annapolis, Maryland 76102