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Probability Concepts

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The probability of an event is the measure of the chance that the event will occur as a result of an experiment. The probability of an event A is the number of ways event A can occur divided by the total number of possible outcomes. The probability of an event A, symbolized by P(A), is a number between 0 and , inclusive, that measures the li!elihood of an event in the followin" way# $f P(A) % P(&) then event A is more li!ely to occur than event &. $f P(A) ' P(&) then events A and & are e(ually li!ely to occur. $f P(A) ' the even A is a certainty. $f P(A) ' 0 the event A is impossible. The sample space of an experiment is the set of all possible outcomes. The complement of an event A is the set of all outcomes in the sample space that are not included in the outcomes of event A. )iven the probability of an event, the probability of its complement can be found by subtractin" the "iven probability from . Two events, A and &, are said to be mutually exclusive if there are no outcomes that are common to both events. $n other words, if A * & ' +. $f two events are mutually exclusive then P(A or &) ' P(A) , P(&). Two events, A and &, are independent if the fact that A occurs does not affect the probability of & occurrin", and vice versa. -hen two events, A and &, are independent, the probability of both events occurrin" is, P(A and &) ' P(A) P(&) The conditional probability of an event & in relationship to an event A is the probability that event & occurs "iven that event A has already occurred. The notation for conditional probability is P(&.A), read as the probability of B given A. The formula for conditional probability is#

or e(uivalently

Problems# . -hich of the followin" is the sample space when / coins are tossed0 a. 12, T, 2, T3 b. 12, T3 c. 122, 2T, T2, TT3 d. 4one of the above.

2. -hich of the followin" experiments does 45T have e(ually li!ely outcomes0

a. b. c. d. 6hoose a number at random from to 7. Toss a coin. 6hoose a letter at random from the word 862559. 4one of the above. to is chosen at random. -hat is the probability of choosin" an odd

;. At <ennedy =iddle 8chool, : out of > students ma!e honor roll. -hat is the probability that a student does not ma!e honor roll0

5. A "lass ?ar contains > red, : blue, 4 yellow, 1 orange, and 2 green jelly beans. If a

jelly bean is chosen at random from the jar, what is the probability that it is not blue @. A sin"le card is chosen at random from a standard dec! of >/ playin" cards. -hat is the probability of choosin" a card that is not a !in"0

7. 8pin a spinner numbered to 7, and toss a coin. -hat is the probability of "ettin" an odd

number on the spinner and a tail on the coin0 A. A pair of dice is rolled. -hat is the probability of "ettin" a sum of /0 B. A lar"e bas!et of fruit contains : oran"es, / apples and > bananas. $f a piece of fruit is chosen at random, what is the probability of "ettin" an oran"e or a banana0 (Custify your answer to this one0) 0. $n a class of :0 students, there are 7 "irls and : boys. Dive are A students, and three of these students are "irls. $f a student is chosen at random, what is the probability of choosin" a "irl or an A student0 (Custify your answer. 2ow is this problem differ from the last one0)

11. A nationwide survey showed that @>E of all children in the Fnited 8tates disli!e eatin"

ve"etables. $f ; children are chosen at random, what is the probability that all ; disli!e eatin" ve"etables0 (Gound your answer to the nearest percent.) /. $n a shipment of 00 televisions, @ are defective. $f a person buys two televisions from that shipment, what is the probability that both are defective0

:. $n a school, ;E of students ta!e drama and computer classes, and @7E ta!e drama class. -hat is the probability that a student ta!es computer class "iven that the student ta!es drama class0

II. More Challenging Questions (1) A fruit bo l has ! apples an" # oranges. If one piece of fruit is selecte" at ran"o$ an" then a secon" piece of fruit is selecte" at ran"o$% hat are the chances that both pieces of fruit ill be apples& (2) 'ol"en (oof ('() is t ice as li)ely to in a horserace than *il+er *a""le (**) an" *il+er *a""le is t ice as li)ely to in as Cho$ping, at,the,-it (C-). If only the . horses are in the race% hat is the probability that 'ol"en (oof ill not in& (.) 'i+en a han" containing the nine nu$bere" hearts fro$ a "ec) of car"s /2 to 0% ith Ace counting as one (1)1 ,, hat is the probability of "ra ing three car"s in se2uence fro$ the han" such that each selection results in a nu$ber larger than the pre+ious one& (#) 3hat are the o""s against rolling a se+en ith a single thro of a pair of "ice /2 "ice1& (5) 4here are si5 $en an" t el+e o$en. (alf of the $en ha+e gray hair an" so "o half of the o$en. 3hat are the chances that a person chosen at ran"o$ ill be a $an% a person ith gray hair or both& (!) (o $any "ice $ust be thro n to gi+e a better than 567 chance that at least one of the "ice ill sho a one (1) (a single 8sna)e eye8)& (7) If the chances of a golfer being struc) by lightning on a rainy "ay are one,in,a,$illion% if it rains an a+erage of three "ays per ee) an" if you play golf e+ery *atur"ay 9 *un"ay ,, rain or shine ,, hat are your chances of being struc) by lightning in a gi+en ee)& (Assu$e lightning only stri)es on rainy "ays.) (:) (o $any ays can Alice% -en% Charles an" ;ani<le arrange the$sel+es aroun" a s2uare table& (o $any ays can they arrange the$sel+es aroun" a circular table&

(0) (o $any arrange$ents of ri"er 9 "ri+er are there if Alice% -en% Charlie an" ;ani<le pair up on ;ani<le=s $otorcycle ,, one person "ri+ing an" one person ri"ing behin" the "ri+er hile hol"ing on& (16) If there are ! contestants in a contest% in ho $any potential ays can 1st% 2n" an" .r" pri>e be a ar"e"& (11) ?ne person per hun"re" people has infectious foot,in,$outh "isease. 4he probability of a person ith infectious foot,in,$outh "isease testing positi+e is 0@16 an" the probability of a person ho "oes not ha+e infectious foot,in,$outh "isease testing posti+e is 2@16. 3hat is the probability that a person ho tests positi+e has the "isease& (12) If t o "ice are rolle" three ti$es% hat is the probability that the t o "ice ill $atch (ie% "isplay the sa$e nu$ber) on one of the three rolls& (1.) 4here are t o han"s of car"s% one consisting of nine hearts nu$bere" 1 to 0 (ace is 1) an" another han" consisting of fi+e "ia$on"s nu$bere" 1 to 5. If there is an e2ual chance of choosing a car" fro$ either han"% hat is the probability that an e+en car" ill be a heart& (1#) If a single "ie (one 8"ice8) is rolle" three ti$es% hat is the probability that each roll ill result in a nu$ber larger than the pre+ious roll& (15) If three "ice are thro n (rolle")% hat are the o""s against rolling a total of 16& (1!) ?ut of fi+e $en an" fi+e o$en% ho $any ays are there to for$ a co$$ittee consisting of three o$en an" t o $en & (17) (o $any "ifferent po)er han"s (5 car"s) are possible ith a stan"ar" 52,car" "ec)& (1:) If 5 car"s are "ra n fro$ a "ec) consisting of only the 1. hearts fro$ a 52,car" "ec)% hat is the probability of getting all of the face car"s (Aing% Queen an" Bac))& (10) 3hat is the probability of getting a 8full house8 in fi+e car"s "ra n in a po)er ga$e fro$ a stan"ar" 52,car" "ec)& /A full house consists of

. car"s of the sa$e )in" (eg% . Queens) an" 2 car"s of another )in" (eg% 2 Aces).1 (26) 3hat is the probability of getting a 8pair8 in fi+e car"s "ra n in a po)er ga$e fro$ a stan"ar" 52,car" "ec)& /A pair consists of 2 car"s of the sa$e )in" (eg% 2 Queens) an" . car"s that are "ifferent fro$ the )in" of the pair (eg% "ifferent fro$ Queens) an" that are all "ifferent fro$ each other.1

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