SEVEN REASONS WHY ANNAN WILL FAIL. 1) Wrong Approach.

There are so many differing opinions as to the cause of the violence. Koffi has not decided which one to believe, and he is quoting all the theories in his initiative. Without a firm idea as to what caused the problem he is solving, he cannot succeed. 2) Biting Off More Than He Can Chew. Koffi made a grave mistake. He is trying to tackle all of Kenya’s problems. From ethnic cleansing to poverty. All to be accomplished before he leaves. It is not possible. He should have restricted himself to what initially brought him here, to broker a ceasefire. He also needs to accept and declare that the deeper problems are beyond him and can only be solved by Kenya’s leadership. Poverty, Triablism etc cannot be cured at Kilaguni. 3) Independence. It is increasingly clear that he is not Independent. The Western powers keep saying that they support his efforts but by their very actions make it clear that he is a figurehead sent to impose their ideas. Thus, he is only grudgingly accepted. A semblance of independence would allow him build real confidence from the parties. 4) History. Forced solutions, and in particular coalition governments, have a recurring history of failure around the world, just like the majority of ‘quick fix’ solutions for Africa from the west. Remember the ‘SAPS’ to fix African economies? How about the Somalia prescription? The Ethiopian election report by EU Observers in 2005? The list is long. 5) The Players. None of the teams wants ‘to agree’. Each wants ‘to win.’ In reality, it is easier to negotiate by recognizing a winner and then making a case for some sort of benefits to the loser, rather than trying to imply that equality is possible for both parties. 6) Priorities It is possible that within the negotiation team members, some are guilty of sponsoring violence actively, and probably ethnic cleansing. The matter of the killings and murder is seemingly being given secondary status to the issue of seats in Government. This is a wrong message to send Kenyans. The real problem can never be disputed elections, because this is a worldwide phenomenon. The real problem lies in murder of political opponents. This cannot be excused no matter what election violations. 7) Rule Of Law. In the long run, this is Koffi’s worst bequeathment to Kenyans. He should have found a way to legitimize a judicial way to solve the crisis. When he came and trashed a judicial option, he created an animal that will live with us for years to come. Koffi should have at least made suggestions about how to ensure speedy and fair speedy judicial arbitration, even foreign judges. Trashing the Judiciary as completely as he did is something that Kenyans will pay for dearly in future. Nothing brings chaos into a modern state more rapidly than when you justify disregard of due process. It encourages and justifies the citizen’s use of unlawful means to address grievances.