!"#"$%&' )*%+*&, -#&*%+' .** /",0, 12 3!

%,, 4*,$&567189 2&1: ;#":%$* ;<%8=*
SecreLary of SLaLe !ohn kerry's speech ln !akarLa, lndonesla lald ouL Lhe LhreaL sLarkly: ºCllmaLe
change can now be consldered anoLher weapon of mass desLrucuon, perhaps even Lhe world's
mosL fearsome weapon of mass desLrucuon." 1hls wake-up call seL oñ waves of ouLrage and
denlal (here and here). ?eL exlsung analysls from respecLed mlllLary leaders recognlzes Lhe
poLenual LhreaL from cllmaLe change as no less Lhan masslvely desLrucuve.
1he blg plcLure shows us:
- CllmaLe sclence pro[ecLs a grlm long-Lerm scenarlo lf warmlng conunues aL presenL
raLes. CoasLal clues ßooded by hlgher seas, global food supply dlsrupuon, droughL and
wlldñres. ºMass desLrucuon" ls an accuraLe descrlpuon.
- MlllLary leaders ln Lhe u.S. have recognlzed Lhe growlng LhreaL of cllmaLe change for
years, wlLh rlsks ranglng from economlc lnsLablllLy Lo clvll unresL.
- ManagemenL of cllmaLe rlsks lnvolves boLh preparlng for unavoldable near-Lerm
lmpacLs and mlugaung caLasLrophlc long-Lerm lmpacLs.
- MlllLary leaders are documenung Lhose rlsks, lncludlng Lhe organlzauons and
lnsuLuuons llsLed below.
1he u.S. ueparLmenL of uefense, Lhe largesL responder Lo naLural and humanlLarlan crlses
around Lhe world, has been sLeadlly documenung Lhe varlous ways cllmaLe change wlll
exacerbaLe crlses and conßlcLs:
- >*%$<*& +",%,$*&,? ulsasLers boLh endanger llves and sLraln lnLernauonal relauonshlps,
someumes necesslLaung mlllLary lnvolvemenL. ln response Lo recenL ßoodlng ln 8rlLaln,
former 8oyal navy alrcraû commander nell Morlsem sLaLed, º?ou can see Lhe mlllLary
belng more lnvolved ln exLreme weaLher rellef - and you've goL Lhe equlvalenL golng on
ln Lhe uk aL Lhe momenL . mlllLary ald ln SomerseL levels and Lhe 1hames valley. 1haL
sorL of LhoughL process ls Lhe sorL of Lhe Lhlnklng LhaL ls deñnlLely golng on ln London
and WashlngLon". lmpacL lorecasung's annual reporL sLaLed LhaL ln 2013 alone, naLural
dlsasLers cosL Lhe world $192 bllllon, wlLh Lhe hlghesL ever LoLal reachlng $263 bllllon ln
- @11+ %8+ A%$*& "8,*65&"$'? 8aules over fresh waLer or medlcal auenuon can dlmlnlsh
clvll order ln a mauer of days. Weak governmenLs can fold under such pressure, openlng
vulnerablllues for exLremlsm Lo fesLer and Lake conLrol, and for crlme Lo explode. 1he
World lood Þrogram esLabllshed llnks beLween food lnsecurlLy and vlolenL conßlcL. ln
Syrla, for example, conunuous droughL caused masslve crop fallures and llvesLock dle-
oñs LhaL ralsed lmmedlaLe economlc and securlLy concerns. A 2011 nCAA sLudy llnked
Lhls droughL Lo cllmaLe change.
CllmaLe nexus | 171 Madlson Avenue, SulLe 901 | new ?ork, n? | 10016
- !%,, :"=&%718? As Lhe lmpacLs of cllmaLe change mounL, Lhere ls poLenual for
lnsLablllLy as refugees mlgraLe on mass scales, someumes enLerlng unfrlendly
nelghborlng LerrlLory and lgnlung geopollucal conßlcLs. lor example, Þaclñc lsland
nauons are already belng forced Lo ñnd land ln places such as AusLralla and new
Zealand, broachlng unprecedenLed lmmlgrauon concerns. Þhll Clendennlng, ÞresldenL
of Lhe 8efugee Councll of AusLralla, explalns, "1hese are people who are noL suñerlng
from persecuuon because of Lhelr bellefs, race or because Lhey belong Lo a parucular
group. So Lhey don'L meeL Lhe 8efugee Convenuon crlLerla buL, neverLheless, Lhere wlll
be a need for people Lo be reseuled because Lhey have been dlsplaced by cllmaLe
change.Lhls ls a new cohorL of people who are emerglng, Lhe resL of Lhe world needs Lo
pay auenuon." 1he lÞCC's language ln Lhelr mosL recenL reporL shows LhaL Lhls problem
could lncrease as more areas become unlnhablLable: º. lmporLanL upplng polnLs for
healLh lmpacLs may be exceeded ln many areas of Lhe world durlng Lhls cenLury,
lncludlng coplng mechanlsms for dally LemperaLure/humldlLy maklng poLenually large
areas seasonally unlnhablLable for normal human acuvlues, lncludlng growlng food or
worklng ouLdoors (hlgh conñdence).
!ohn kerry ls noL alone ln hls assessmenL ln Lhe unlLed SLaLes elLher, nor ls he ºdeluslonal" as
newL Clngrlch suggesLs. kerry's recognluon of Lhe rlsk ls supporLed by mlllLary and lnLelllgence
leaders from every branch of Lhe mlllLary and from volces LhroughouL Lhe pollucal specLrum.
- .%:5*# BC )160#*%& DDDE ;1::%8+*& 12 $<* FC.C G%H' I%6"J6 ;1::%8+? SlgnlñcanL
upheaval relaLed Lo Lhe warmlng planeL ´ls ptobobly tbe most llkely tbloq tbot ls qoloq
to boppeo ... tbot wlll ctlpple tbe secotlty eovltoomeot, ptobobly mote llkely tboo tbe
otbet sceootlos we oll ofeo tolk oboot.´
- @1&:*& -&:' ;<"*2 12 .$%K L*8*&%# L1&+18 .5##"H%8: ´cllmote cbooqe ls o oouoool
secotlty lssoe. we foooJ tbot cllmote lostoblllty wlll leoJ to lostoblllty lo qeopollucs ooJ
lmpoct Ametlcoo Mllltoty opetouoos otoooJ tbe wotlJ.´ 1he llsL of mlllLary leaders
echolng Lhese sLaLemenLs cannoL be lgnored (more can be found here).
- M1: /"+=*E @1&:*& -,,",$%8$ $1 $<* I&*,"+*8$ 21& N1:*#%8+ .*65&"$' %8+ .*6&*$%&' 12
N1:*#%8+ .*65&"$' 58+*& I&*,"+*8$ L*1&=* >C O5,<: ´1be u.5. oouoool secotlty
commoolty, locloJloq leoJets ftom tbe mllltoty, bomelooJ secotlty, ooJ lotelllqeoce,
ooJetstooJ tbot cllmote cbooqe ls o oouoool secotlty tbteot . 1bey´te oot tolkloq oboot
wbetbet ot oot lt ls occottloq - lt ls . 1bey´te tolkloq oboot oJJtessloq tbe ptoblem ooJ
ptotecuoq tbe Ametlcoo people. lt´s ume wosbloqtoo Joes tbe some.´ A blparusan leuer
lncludlng slgnaLures from some former CCÞ leadershlp supporung Lhls senumenL can be
found here.
Mass desLrucuon can and wlll occur lf cllmaLe change ls noL dlrecLly challenged wlLh a global,
coordlnaLed eñorL. ulsagreemenL over soluuons and pollcy ls a falr, necessary debaLe. lL ls qulLe
dlñerenL Lo lgnore and mock Lhe LhreaL-deslgnauon by Lhe enure defense and lnLelllgence
communlLy on Lhe global lmpacLs of a changlng cllmaLe sysLem. 1here ls Loo much aL sLake, and
lucklly Lhose aL Lhe vanguard are chooslng Lo remaln focused.

CllmaLe nexus | 171 Madlson Avenue, SulLe 901 | new ?ork, n? | 10016

@5&$<*& /*,15&6*,
CenLer for naval Analysls 8eporL: ºnauonal SecurlLy and Lhe 1hreaL of CllmaLe Change"
uCSu: ºCllmaLe Change - Muluplylng 1hreaLs Lo nauonal SecurlLy"
Cmce of Lhe under SecreLary of uefense, 2011: º1rends and lmpllcauons of CllmaLe Change for
nauonal and lnLernauonal SecurlLy"
ueparLmenL of uefense l? 2012: ºCllmaLe Change AdapLauon 8oadmap"
-67H* L&15P,
1he CenLer for CllmaLe and SecurlLy
Amerlcan SecurlLy Þro[ecL
ÞarLnershlp for A Secure Amerlca
Þew Þro[ecL for nauonal SecurlLy, Lnergy and LnvlronmenL
CllmaLe nexus | 171 Madlson Avenue, SulLe 901 | new ?ork, n? | 10016
Updated Feb. 21, 2014

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