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fuzzy demand forecasting

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Agus Pratondo

Department of Information Technology

Telkom Polytechnic

Bandung, Indonesia

agus@politekniktelkom.ac.id

AbstractDemand data can be viewed as a number series from

time to time. The series may be a pattern that can be anal zed

for the next demand prediction if the slice of time is constant.

The demand series which the time slice is constant can

forecast the next demand valued by ap lying a formula. There

are many methods to forecast the next demand. All formulas

calculate the next demand by using the fact of demand as a

pure number series. The next demand value is derived from

analitical process using mathematics equation, from the

simplest way to the complex one. In fact, the demand is

influenced by environtment factor, for example social and

politics exchange, disaster, and mode. The demand forecasting

must be reevaluated by considering the environment factors.

The environtment factor usually has uncertainty value which is

good using fuzzy value. That is why the best way to enhance

the demand forecasting is calculation using fuzzy rule base.

Keywords- demand, series, forecasting, anal tic, environment,

fuzzy

I. DEMAND PATTERN FOR FORECASTING

Demand can be viewed as numerical series. The next

series can be predicted by using a formula. Different formula

will produce different prediction number. It is not problem

what formula that will be used but the most important in

forecasting is the minimum error. If there is a number series

D : J

0

, J

1,

, J

2,

, J

3,

, .... J

-1,

and

is the forecasting

number for J

,

, then the error can be defined as below

c = |

- J

| (1)

where: c is the forecasting error

The value of

,

can be greater, equal, or less than

J

,

. The error value describes how far the prediciton value

compared to the real value is. The smaller the value c, the

better the the forecasting will be.

The c value can be minimized by identifing the data

pattern. The data pattern guides to which forumula should be

used. One formula may be approriate for a pattern but not for

other. The data pattern can be obtained if there is adequate

history demand data. Some data patterns are shown in the

folowing figures.

Figure 1. Some patterns for demand history

Assume that there is a number series D : J

1,

, J

2,

,

J

3,

, .... J

n,

for the time series T : t

1,

, t

2,

, t

3,

, .... t

n,

. The

graphic can be derived from set of points {(t

x

, J

x

) | x e

{u,1, , n]]

D

t

a. Close to static data

D

t

b. Random value

D

t

c. Close to linier equation graphics

D

t

d. Season data

2010 Second International Conference on Advances in Computing, Control, and Telecommunication Technologies

978-0-7695-4269-0/10 $26.00 2010 IEEE

DOI 10.1109/ACT.2010.61

190

y

y

p

y

2010 Second International Conference on Advances in Computing, Control, and Telecommunication Technologies

978-0-7695-4269-0/10 $26.00 2010 IEEE

DOI 10.1109/ACT.2010.61

190

2010 Second International Conference on Advances in Computing, Control, and Telecommunication Technologies

978-0-7695-4269-0/10 $26.00 2010 IEEE

DOI 10.1109/ACT.2010.61

190

2010 Second International Conference on Advances in Computing, Control, and Telecommunication Technologies

978-0-7695-4269-0/10 $26.00 2010 IEEE

DOI 10.1109/ACT.2010.61

188

It is easy to identify the pattern in fig. 1(a) and fig. 1(c)

which are relatively closed to linier equation complying with

equation

y = mx + c (2)

where m = u for fig. 1(a) and m = u for fig. 1(c). The

coeficient m can derived from

m =

(d

x

)(t

x

2

)- (t

x

)(t

x

d

x

)

(n)(t

x

2

)- (t

x

)

2

(3)

and the constanta c can be derived from

c =

(n)(t

x

d

x

)- (t

x

)(t

j

)

(n)(t

x

2

)- (t

x

)

2

(4)

In fig. 1(d), it is closed to trigonometric function which

comply with equation

y = sin(x + ) +c (5)

Once the equation obtained, the next demand will be

easy to be found. The hardest pattern to get the equation is

fig. 1(b). It needs more complex equation which may contain

combination of simple equation.

II. ANAL TICAL DEMAND FORECASTING

The example of analitical demand forecasting can be

descirbe as followns. Assume there is a demand history:

TABLE I. DEMAND HISTORY

Month Demand

1 782

2 794

3 789

4 800

5 795

A linier regression will produce an equation

y = S,2 x + 782,4 . The next demand is calculated by

subtituting x = 6 and produce 801,6. Since the demand is

integer, it can be said that the next demand is |8u1,6]= 802.

See fig. 2.(a).

a. A linier regression

b. A polynomial equation

Figure 2. Forecasting the 6

th

demand

In fig. 2.(b), a polynomial equation is used. The degree of

polynomial is 3, and produces an equation

y = 0,083x

3

- 2,035x

2

+ 12,88x + 772 (6)

By subtituting x = 6, the forecasting value is 793,948,

and it can be said 794.

The example above shows that different formula will

produce different value. In this research, the methode to get

the demand forecating number is ignored. The main purpose

is to evaluate the demand forecasting to ensure the

decission maker that the prediction has minumum error. For

the next discussion, assume that polynomial equation is used

to forecast the demand.

III. ENVIRONMENT FACTORS INFLUENCE THE DEMAND

All formulas in demand forecasting is pure

derived from a mathematic equation. A manager should

make a decision not only by using the mathematic result but

also by considering the environtment. There is a question

whether the forecasted demand should be taken greater,

equal, or less. Using polynomial equation, the demand

forcating for table I is 794 (fig. 2), call it P0. It is possible

that the real demand will be greater or less than this value. In

fig. 3, there are a lot of posibilities from P0. Some of them

are P1 till P5, where P1 is greater but P2,P3,P4, and P5 are

less then P0.

Figure 3. Alternative values

191

Y

anal tical y

anal tical y

191 191 189

The environtment may influence the demand but it is

hard to generate the mathematics equation. The uncertainty

factors become important in decision making. Since the

uncertainty usually has fuzzy value, it will be easy to

represent the environtment factors using fuzzy logic.

In classic theory set, the degree of member is very clear.

It has value 0 or 1, whether they are member or not. There is

no space for semantic meaning such as rather, relatively

closed, medium, and etc. Fuzzy logic accomodate the value

that has uncertainty. It alows value between 0 and 1. It also

has linguistic variable that has natural semantic meaning

such as low, medium, high, or very high. The environtment

factors that influence a demand may be as follows:

1. If the there are a lot of demonstrations the demand

will decrease.

2. If the annual inflation rate is low the demand will

increase.

3. If there are a lot of flood disasters, the demand will

decerase.

All condition above can be converted to a table as follows:

TABLE II. FUZZY RULE BASE

Antecedent Consequent

IF Value Demand

Demonstration Intensity High Decrease

Annual Inflation Low Increase

Flood Disaster High Decrease

The knowledge on table II can be implemented into fuzzy

rule based system

IV. FUZZY RULE BASED SYSTEM TO ENHANCE THE

ANAL TICAL DEMAND FORECASTING

The demand forecasting can be reevaluated

using the fuzzy rule based system. All factors that influence

the demand are represented into fuzzy rule. How the fuzzy

logic gives the suggestion described in the fig. 4.

Figure 4. How Fuzzy Logic Works

The combination between two or more rule can be

calculated using a method. In fig. 4, the methode to find

solution S, is centroid defuzzification. Finally the

defuzzification suggests that the demand

forecasting should be changed to be greater. In this case, the

Point P1 in fig. 3 is better taken. If the real demand is

known, the error can be calculated using (1).

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

I thank to Rinaldi Munir (STEI ITB) for Fuzzy Logic

and especially for the development of fuzzy rule based

application to enhance the anal tical demand; and Della Y.

Temenggung (FTI ITB) for demand.

REFERENCES

[1] M. Mirbagheri, Fuzzy-logic and Neural network Fuzzy forecasting

of Iran GDP growth, African Journal of Business Management, Vol.

4(6), pp. 925-929, June 2010.

[2] I. Luna, S. Soares, and R. Ballini, A Constructive-Fuzzy System

Modeling for Time Series Forecasting, The 2007 International Joint

Conference on Neural Networks, pp. 2908-2913, 2007.

[3] T.A.Jilani, S.M. Aqil Burney, C. Ardil, "Multivariate High Order

Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting for Car Road Accidents," World

Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, 25,pp. 288-293,

2007.

[4] H. Tozan, O. Vayvay, Fuzzy Forecasting Applications on Supply

Chains, WSEAS Transaction on System, no. 5, Vol 7, pp. 600-609,

May 2008.

[5] Ross T. J., Fuzzy Logic with Engineering Applications, 2th edt., John

Wiley and Sons, 2005.

[6] M. Rinaldi, Advance Informatics Logic, Teknik Informatika ITB,

2000

[7] A. Everett, E. Ronald, Production and Operation Management, 4

th

edition, Prentice Hall, 1989

[8] M. Spyros, W. Steven, Forecasting, 2

nd

edition, John Wiley and

Sons Inc., 1983

[9] M. Rinaldi, Numerical Method on Informatics, Teknik Informatika

ITB, 1999

192

y

anal tical y

anal tical y

anal tical y

Y

192 192 190

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