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Statistics and Probability Lesson Part 1

Statistics and Probability Lesson Part 1

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3. In coming-up with scientific conclusions from the results of the data interpretation, and aid in forecasting or predictions.

Statistics = is an art which involves systematic collection, presentation, analysis and interpretation of data which will results to a meaningful facts and thereby plays an important roles in decision making. Branch of Statistics 1. Descriptive Statistics 2. Inferential Statistics

Branch of Statistics

Descriptive Statistics = (1) Deals with the presentation and collection of data. This is the first part any statistical analysis. (2) are a way of summarizing data - letting one number stand for a group of numbers. We can also use tables and graphs to summarize data.(3) It deals with collection of data, its presentation in various forms, such as tables, graphs and diagrams and findings averages and other measures which would describe the data.

Branch of Statistics

Example: Industrial Statistics, Business Statistics, Housing and Population Statistics, Stocks, Trade Statistics.

Branch of Statistics

Inferential Statistics = (1) it deals with techniques used for analysis of data, making the estimates and drawing conclusions from limited information taken on sample basis and testing the reliability of the estimates.. (2) involves drawing the right conclusions from the statistical analysis that has been performed using descriptive statistics.

Branch of Statistics

Example: Suppose we want to investigate the effectiveness of certain medicine to cure an illness, we take a sample from the population and conduct an experiment to two groups of respondents and compare the results. This will provide inferences about the population proportion. This study belongs to inferential statistics.

A measure of central tendency is (1). a statistic which describe a set of data by identifying the central position within that set of data. As such, measures of central tendency are sometimes called measures of central location. (2). To provide an index to describe a group or the difference between groups Mean Not applicable to Nominal Data

Sample Mean(x-bar) Population Mean Mu

Median Middlemost distribution of data. The point in a distributin of measures below which 50 percent of the cases lie and that the other 50 percent lie above this point

Odd Number

x 1 mdn 2

5 1 mdn 3rd 2

mdn

ith 1 2 3 4 5

x 98 90 86 84 81

Median Middlemost distribution of data. The point in a distributin of measures below which 50 percent of the cases lie and that the other 50 percent lie above this point

Even Number

x x2 mdn ; mdn 2 2

mdn

x 6 3rd 2 2 x2 62 4th 2 2 86 84 85 2

mdn

mdn mdn

Mdn

ith 1 2 3 4 5 6

x 98 90 86 84 81 77

Mode is the value that occurs more frequently. It is possible to have more than one mode, if there are two modes the data is said to be bimodal. It is also possible for a set of data to not have any mode, this situation occurs if the number of modes gets to be too large". It is not really possible to define too large" but one should exercise good judgment. A reasonable, though very generous, rule of thumb is that if the number of data points accounted for in the list of modes is half or more of the data points, then there is no mode.

Interval / Ratio Data Mean

Mode

Skewness

Skewness We often test whether our data is normally distributed because this is a common assumption underlying many statistical tests. Some distributions of data, such as the bell curve are symmetric. This means that the right and the left are perfect mirror images of one another. But not every distribution of data is symmetric. Sets of data that are not symmetric are said to be asymmetric. The measure of how asymmetric a distribution can be is called skewness. As we will see, data can be skewed either to the right or to the left.

Data that are skewed to the right have a long tail that extends to the right. An alternate way of talking about a data set skewed to the right is to say that it is positively skewed. In this situation the mean and the median are both greater than the mode. As a general rule, most of the time for data skewed to the right, the mean will be greater than the median. In summary, for a data set skewed to the right: .

In fact, in any symmetrical distribution the mean, median and mode are equal. However, in this situation, the mean is widely preferred as the best measure of central tendency because it is the measure that includes all the values in the data set for its calculation, and any change in any of the scores will affect the value of the mean. This is not the case with the median or mode. .

we find that the mean is being dragged in the direct of the skew. In these situations, the median is generally considered to be the best representative of the central location of the data. The more skewed the distribution, the greater the difference between the median and mean, and the greater emphasis should be placed on using the median as opposed to the mean. A classic example of the above right-skewed distribution is income (salary), where higher-earners provide a false representation of the typical income if expressed as a mean and not a median. .

If dealing with a normal distribution, and tests of normality show that the data is non-normal, it is customary to use the median instead of the mean. However, this is more a rule of thumb than a strict guideline. Sometimes, researchers wish to report the mean of a skewed distribution if the median and mean are not appreciably different (a subjective assessment), and if it allows easier comparisons to previous research to be made.

Always: mode < mean Always: mode < median Most of the time: mode < median < mean

Always: mean < mode Always: median < mode Most of the time: mean < median < mode

1. Rule One. If the mean is less than the median, the data are skewed to the left. 2. Rule Two. If the mean is greater than the median, the data are skewed to the right.

Kurtosis

Kurtosis Kurtosis is the measure of the peak of a distribution, and indicates how high the distribution is around the mean. The kurtosis of a distributions is in one of three categories of classification.

1. Mesokurtic

2. Leptokurtic 3. Platykurtic

Kurtosis

1. Mesokurtic = Kurtosis is typically measured with respect to the normal distribution. A distribution that is peaked in the same way as any normal distribution, not just the standard normal distribution, is said to be mesokurtic. The peak of a mesokurtic distribution is neither high nor low, rather it is considered to be a baseline for the two other classifications. Leptokurtic = A leptokurtic distribution is one that has kurtosis greater than a mesokurtic distribution. Leptokurtic distributions are identified by peaks that are thin and tall. The tails of these distributions, to both the right and the left, are thick and heavy. Leptokurtic distributions are named by the prefix "lepto" meaning "skinny."

2.

Kurtosis

1. Platikurtic = distributions are those that have a peak lower than a mesokurtic distribution. Platykurtic distributions are characterized by a certain flatness to the peak, and have slender tails. The name of these types of distributions come from the meaning of the prefix "platy" meaning "broad.

SKEWED TO THE LEFT The situation reverses itself when we deal with data skewed to the left. Data that are skewed to the left have a long tail that extends to the left. An alternate way of talking about a data set skewed to the left is to say that it is negatively skewed. In this situation the mean and the median are both less than the mode. As a general rule, most of the time for data skewed to the left, the mean will be less than the median. In summary, for a data set skewed to the left:

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