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Basic Metals

World crude steel production rose 1.2% year-on-year in February with production declining in most developed economies. One exception was the UK where output at the For further information contact Kiran Ahmed kahmed@oxfordeconomics.com Sahaviriya Steel Industries Redcar plant has been ramping up since April. In China, production rose 9.8% following 11.4% growth in January. While such strong growth suggests our Q1 forecast for China is a tad pessimistic, Beijings efforts at Basic metals: Output growth cooling the real estate market are already having an impact on % year buying activity from the key construction sector. Thus stockpiles 50 Forecast are likely to be building and could potentially result in a Japan 40 correction in production trends later in the year. 30 The latest basic metals data show US iron & steel production declining sharply in February as strong imports depress domestic production. Not surprisingly, lobbying by US steel companies against these imports has intensified recently. Japanese castings and iron & steel production rose at a strong pace in January as domestic and export demand prospects have improved and inventory to shipment ratios are falling. Output remains below year-ago levels for much of Western Europe but production at some plants has been ramped up in anticipation of restocking. Poor demand prospects here though are likely to keep a cap on near-term production growth.
20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 W. Europe US

-50 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Oxford Economics

Crude steel: Output growth


% year 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 W. Europe Japan US Forecast

Non-ferrous metals: Output growth


% year 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 W. Europe -25 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Oxford Economics

Japan

US

Forecast

-60 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Oxford Economics

Crude steel: Output


mn tonnes, 3mma 5

Crude steel: Output growth


% year 100 80 US Japan Forecast

Germany Italy

60 40 20

France

0 -20

UK

-40

W. Europe

0 Mar-08

Mar-09

Mar-10

Mar-11

Mar-12

Mar-13

-60 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Oxford Economics

Source: World Steel

Monthly Industry Briefing: March 2013


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Basic Metals

Crude steel: Output


mn tonnes, 3mma 70 60 China 50 40 30 20 10 CIS 0 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13

Crude steel: Output


mn tonnes, 3mma 140 World 120 100 80 60
India, Korea, Taiwan

Non-Triad

40 20 Triad 0 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13

Source: World Steel

Source: World Steel

Steel: Net exports


mn tonnes, 3mma 8 7 6 5 4 3 China

Steel: New orders


US$ bn, 3mma 16 14
EU15

2005=100, 3mma 240

US (LHS)

200

12 160 10 120 8

2 1 0 Mar-08 Japan US

6 4 Mar-08

Germany (RHS)

80

Mar-09

Mar-10

Mar-11

Mar-12

Mar-13

Mar-09

Mar-10

Mar-11

Mar-12

40 Mar-13

Source: Haver / Eurofer / AISI

Source: Haver Analytics / Oxford Economics

Non-ferrous metals: Output


2005=100, 3mma 130 120 US 110 100 90

Non-ferrous metals: Output


2005=100, 3mma 120 110 100 Germany 90 80 UK Italy

80 70 Japan 60 Mar-08 Mar-09

W. Europe 70

France

Mar-10

Mar-11

Mar-12

Mar-13

60 Mar-08

Mar-09

Mar-10

Mar-11

Mar-12

Mar-13

Source: Oxford Economics

Source: Oxford Economics

Monthly Industry Briefing: March 2013


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Basic Metals

Non-ferrous metals: New orders


US$Bn, 3mma 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 Mar-08 Mar-09 2005=100, 3mma 190 170 US (LHS) 150 130

Non-ferrous metals: LME inventories


mn tonnes 6 5 4 3
110 Germany (RHS) 90 70 50 Mar-13

Aluminium

2 1 0 Mar-08

Copper Zinc

Mar-10

Mar-11

Mar-12

Mar-09

Mar-10

Mar-11

Mar-12

Mar-13

Source: Haver Analytics / Oxford Economics

Source: Haver Analytics

Non-ferrous metals: Prices


US$ / thous tonnes 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Mar-08 Zinc Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Aluminium Copper

Basic metals: Prices


2005=100 240 220 US 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 Mar-08 Germany UK

Mar-09

Mar-10

Mar-11

Mar-12

Mar-13

Source: Haver Analytics

Source: Haver Analytics / Stabu / BLS

Industry Output - Basic Metals


Value Added Index (2005=100) and year-on-year % changes, seasonally adjusted

USA Index
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2013 Jan Feb 106.4 103.8 -0.9 -4.0 89.4 108.1 104.5 106.6 104.6 102.6 105.2 104.7 99.8 101.1 103.8 107.6

Japan Index
93.6 95.5 95.2 94.2 91.3 90.3 89.7 85.8 85.1 83.0 84.8

Germany Index
97.3 96.8 97.4 98.3 98.7 99.1 94.3 96.6 94.2 92.3 92.9 94.2 -

France Index
75.1 76.3 74.8 75.2 72.9 74.4 79.5 73.9 71.2 71.8 69.9 69.3 -

Italy Index % change


84.0 85.5 81.9 83.2 82.2 82.2 79.0 81.4 80.0 76.2 73.2 73.7 -8.2 -4.9 -10.8 -5.6 -7.2 -7.6 -9.2 -5.8 -6.2 -10.0 -12.3 -13.8 -

UK Index
76.9 76.3 74.8 82.9 80.4 80.0 78.5 76.7 78.3 74.5 74.1 70.4 -

% change
8.6 2.9 5.8 4.0 1.9 3.9 2.9 -3.3 -3.3 -1.9 0.6

% change
-5.2 8.4 8.4 8.9 3.5 1.8 -0.9 -3.3 -5.9 -6.7 -3.6 -2.2 -

% change
-3.3 -2.9 -4.7 -4.3 -2.4 -4.1 -5.3 -0.4 -4.0 -3.6 0.2 -0.8 -

% change
-12.0 -7.2 -10.4 -9.2 -8.4 -7.2 -1.0 -8.2 -11.1 -8.9 -7.8 -10.1 -

% change
-11.7 -6.6 -6.7 3.1 0.1 -1.7 -2.2 -4.5 1.0 -4.3 2.4 -7.4 -

Monthly Industry Briefing: March 2013


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