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IPCC 5th Assessment Report: Ramifications for the Insurance Industry

Dail Rowe, PhD RAA: Cat Modeling 2014 February 11-13, 2014

The Plan

What is the IPCC? What is in the latest IPCC report? What is not in the latest IPCC report?

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What is the IPCC?

Established by the United Nations in 1988 From the Principles Governing IPCC Work The role of the IPCC is to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation. In taking decisions, and approving, adopting and accepting reports, the Panel, its Working Groups and any Task Forces shall use all best endeavours to reach consensus. Volunteer scientists and experts For the latest Physical Science Basis report
259 authors from 39 countries 54677 contributed comments

Summary for Policy Makers subject to line-by-line approval by all participating governments
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What is the latest IPCC report?

Physical Science Basis Released September 27, 2013 2216 pages
33 page Summary for Policymakers

Observations, theory and simulations How has the climate changed? Why? Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Expected March 25, 2014 Mitigation of Climate Change Expected April 7, 2014 Synthesis Expected October 27, 2014
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What is in the latest IPCC report?

Observation Forecast

Milky Way 2

Over 3 million cores 34, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000 operations per second

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IPCC Observations: Its hotter

Globally Averaged Temperature

IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers. The Physical Science Basis.

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IPCC Observations: Ice Sheets are Melting

IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers. The Physical Science Basis.

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IPCC Observations: Sea Level is Rising

Global average sea level change

Change in global average upper ocean heat content

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IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers. The Physical Science Basis.

IPCC Observations: More Carbon in the Air

Atmospheric CO2 More carbon than at any time in the past 800,000 years Rate of increase is higher than at any time in the past 22,000 years

IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers. The Physical Science Basis.

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IPCC Forecasts for 2100

0.3 4.8 degrees Celsius warmer Poles warm more than tropics More heat waves Drier dry areas and wetter wet areas More extreme precipitation events More droughts Ice free Arctic summers 0.26 0.82 meter sea level rise Forecast uncertainty Natural variability: next few decades Human activity: many decades
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IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers. The Physical Science Basis.

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IPCC: Silent on catastrophic weather

NASA

Why not?
NASA

Associated Press

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Penn State

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Tropical Cyclones
Knutson et al. (2010 Nature Geoscience) Higher intensity; Lower frequency Decades before clear statistically Some recent studies challenge this view Emanuel (2013 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)
Higher frequency and intensity

Camargo (2013 Journal of Climate)

No change in frequency

Tory et al. (2013 Journal of Climate)

Confirms Knutson view

Holland and Bruyre (2013 Climate Dynamics

Hurricanes more intense today
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Arctic Ice and Atmospheric Blocking

Blocking caused Sandy to turn left Francis and Vavrus (2012 Geophysical Research Letters) Blocking has become more frequent due to the changing Arctic Barnes (2013 Geophysical Research Letters) Strongly disagrees

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IPCC: Silent on the next few decades

Over years to decades, natural climate variability is the most important driver of changes in catastrophic weather Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation El Nino and the Southern Oscillation North Atlantic Oscillation Pacific Decadal Oscillation

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Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation and Hurricanes

Number of Cat 3+ Hurricanes R2 0.7 (1900-2012) 0.8 (1950-2012)

WW II

Atlantic SST
Both the AMO Index and Number of Major Hurricanes have been smoothed using a 5-year running-mean.
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Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Tornados

Weather Radar EF 2+ Tornado Counts

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Warm Epoch

Cold Epoch

Warm Epoch

Cold

PDO Smooth PDO

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Implications for Risk Management?

The climate is changing Limited scientific guidance on implications for natural catastrophes Natural variability modulates natural catastrophe risk

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