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Prediction Analysis Calculator

C
0.340 0.001 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500 0.600 0.700 0.800 0.900 0.999

TSPI
1.100 1.000 1.020 1.046 1.082 1.133 1.214 1.360 1.700 3.400 -1.700 -0.006

SPI(t)
0.850 0.850 0.850 0.850 0.850 0.850 0.850 0.850 0.850 0.850 0.850 0.850

Threshold
1.100 1.100 1.100 1.100 1.100 1.100 1.100 1.100 1.100 1.100 1.100 1.100

ED
5,000 ES =

IEAC(t)
5,882.4 1500.00

ED/PD
1.000 Window = Instruction

PD
5,000 0.040

Enter values for SPI(t), ES, PD, and ED in the tan cells. The values for ES, PD, and ED are in consistent units of time. Calculated values for TSPI will display. Where TSPI exceeds the threshold of 1.100 indicates the point at which recovery and achievement of ED becomes extremely unlikely. A negative value for TSPI is an indication that ED is exceeded at the corresponding schedule fraction complete (C = ES/PD) of the project. The value of C (< 1) at which TSPI equals the threshold value, 1.100, is displayed in the gold colored cell in the C column. The opportunity for project recovery, as a fraction of PD, is in the cell at the right of "Window =." Other than C, abbreviations are from ES terminology.

TSPI - Recovery Threshold

TSPI SPI(t) Threshold

TSPI Behavior
TSPI SPI(t) Threshold

1.3
1.2

8.0
6.0

1.1 Index 1.0

0.9 Index

4.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 -4.0 Fraction Complete 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

0.8 0.7
Fraction Complete

Interpretation
Two graphs are shown on the Calculator & Graphs sheet. The graphs use different y-axis scaling. The graph on the left has a scale for the SPI(t) index beginning at 0.7 and concluding at 1.3. The graph on the right has considerably larger range, from -4.0 to + 8.0. The two graphs are useful for different purposes. The graph on the right provides an overview of the behavior of TSPI. With the example settings of SPI(t) = 0.85 and ED = 100, i.e. ED (estimated duration) equal to PD, the general behavior is shown. Obviously SPI(t) is a value of schedule performance which cannot achieve the ED. As the fraction complete increases, the TSPI will first increase to a high positive value. After reaching a peak positive value, TSPI rapidly decreases and becomes negative. As the fraction complete approaches 1.0, TSPI approaches zero and concludes at 0.0 when C = 1.0. Having a negative value for TSPI indicates a requirement for additional duration; without added time, the project will complete at an actual duration in excess of ED. The graph on the left provides a more detailed view of the TSPI behavior. It can be seen from this view that there is good reason for the TSPI "rule of thumb." When TSPI exceeds the value of 1.1 it is unlikely that the project can recover and complete within the ED. It appears to be a reliable indication that the project is "out of control." As can be observed, the positive change in TSPI with increasing fraction complete (C) rapidly accelerates after reaching the 1.1 value. The left graph clearly shows the point at which TSPI exceeds the threshold of 1.1. Being able to observe this crossing is useful in that a project manager can make a determination of the project's chance for successful completion within the desired or estimated duration. For example, using SPI(t) = 0.85 and ED = 100, when the project is 70 percent complete TSPI = 1.70. Recovery is possible to achieve the ED, but extremely unlikely. A more sophisticated use of the calculator is to determine the window of opportunity. For the values of SPI(t) = 0.85 and ED = 110 it is observed that the point at which TSPI exceeds the threshold increases to a higher value of C. At ED = 100, the C value is 0.340 and when ED = 110, C is 0.714. Using ED = 110, let's assume that the project is 20 percent complete. By observing the crossing point, the project manager has an indication of how much time there is available to make an effective recovery and achieve ED. For this example, the manager has from the present time, 20 percent complete, to when the project is 71.4 percent complete (Window = 0.514) to make changes that improve schedule performance efficiency such that TSPI is less than the threshold for the remainder of the project. The minimum duration to achieve the present schedule performance is equal to the value of IEAC(t). When this value is copied to the ED input cell, the minimum TSPI value is shown. It is noted that for minimum duration, TSPI is equal to SPI(t). The calculator can be used for cost analysis as well. Change the headings with the following substitutions: TCPI for TSPI, CPI for SPI(t), BAC for PD and EAC for ED. As well, change the label ES to EV and the graph titles to TCPI. The method of application and interpretation is identical to that described for TSPI.