## Are you sure?

This action might not be possible to undo. Are you sure you want to continue?

Jonathan Sterling 11 February 2008

Contents

1 Introduction 2 If Ingred calls Johnny, what is the probability they will talk that day? 3 The equation, PItJ∪JtI (x), or probability that Johnny and Ingred talk given x, the probability of returning a call 3.1 3.2 Development of the function PItJ∪JtI (x) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . On the value of x in PItJ∪JtI (x), given that the probability of talking was 85% . . . 3 3 7 7 7 8 8 8 2 3

4 The Answers 4.1 4.2 P (ItJ ∪ JtI) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . PItJ∪JtI (x) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.1 4.2.2 The function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The value of x, given that PItJ∪JtI (x) = .85 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

List of Figures

1 2 3 A tree diagram showing all the diﬀerent possibilities for the situation. . . . . . . . . The terminal values of the tree diagram in Figure 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The graph for PItJ∪JtI (x) = .125x2 + .25x + .5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 5 6

1

1

Introduction

There are two people, presumably friends, named Johnny and Ingred. The ﬁrst problem to solve is, If Ingred calls Johnny, what is the probability they will talk that day?. This problem will be solved by the utilisation of a tree diagram, in which the terminal values pointing to them talking to each other that day are added up. It is to be assumed that the following conditions are in existence: 1. Both Johnny and Ingred are at home. 2. Neither has Caller ID or any other form of screening. 3. They each have a 50% chance of answering the telephone. 4. There is a 100% chance that they will each check their messages that day. 5. There is a 60% chance that both/either of them will return a call on the same day whereon a message was left. 6. There is a maximum of three calls between them; therefore, the longest situation would be the following: (a) Ingred calls Johnny (b) Johnny calls Ingred back (c) Ingred calls Johnny back The second problem is to write an equation for this situation, where x is the probability of returning the call; this means that the probability of returning the call (60%) is no longer the same, and will be the input of this new function. The last problem is, using this new function, What would x have to be so that the probability of talking was 85%?

2

2

If Ingred calls Johnny, what is the probability they will talk that day?

First, a tree diagram showing the possibilities is created. J stands for “Johnny”, I stands for “Ingred”, c means “called”, a means “answered”, cm means “checked messages”, cb means “called back” and t means “talked to”. Because of its size, the tree diagram (Figure 1) is located on page 4. The terminal values for the tree diagram are in Table 2 on page 5. Now, in order to ﬁnd the probability that Johnny and Ingred talked to each other over the telephone that day, all one must do is add up all of the terminal values that have checkmarks attached to them in Table 2 in order to get the probability of the union of “Ingred talked to Johnny” and “Johnny talked to Ingred” (there really is no diﬀerence between the two, but it was helpful in the visualisation to make a distinction regarding who is doing the calling and answering).

P (ItJ ∪ JtI) = P (A) + P (C) + P (E) + P (G) + P (I) + P (K) + P (M ) + P (O) = .5 + .15 + .045 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = .5 + 15 + .045 P (ItJ ∪ JtI) = .695

Therefore, the probability that Johnny and Ingred talked to each other that day over the telephone is 69.5%.

3

The equation, PItJ∪JtI (x), or probability that Johnny and Ingred talk given x, the probability of returning a call

3.1

Development of the function PItJ∪JtI (x)

The most important part of doing this is to remember that the development of this function is exactly the same as the ﬁnding of P (ItJ ∪ JtI), except that there is a single variable involved. Therefore, this should not be diﬃcult. The ﬁrst step is to create the formula using all the steps

3

IcJ

.5 Ja 1 ItJ A 0 ItJ B 1 Jcm

.5 Ja

0 Jcm 0 ItJ 1 ItJ P

.6 JcbI

.4 JcbI 0 ItJ 1 ItJ N

O

.5 Ia 1 JtI C 0 JtI D .6 IcbJ .5 Ja 1 ItJ E 0 ItJ F 0 ItJ G .5 Ja 1 ItJ H

.5 Ia

M

1 Icm

0 Icm 0 JtI K 1 JtI L

.4 IcbJ 0 ItJ I 1 ItJ J

Figure 1: A tree diagram showing all the diﬀerent possibilities for the situation.

4

Variable A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P

Value .5 × 1 = .5 .5 × 0 = 0 .5 × 1 × .6 × .5 × 1 = .15 .5 × 1 × .6 × .5 × 0 = 0 .5 × 1 × .6 × .5 × 1 × .6 × .5 × 1 = .045 .5 × 1 × .6 × .5 × 1 × .6 × .5 × 0 = 0 .5 × 1 × .6 × .5 × 1 × .6 × .5 × 0 = 0 .5 × 1 × .6 × .5 × 1 × .6 × .5 × 1 = .045 .5 × 1 × .6 × .5 × 1 × .4 × 0 = 0 .5 × 1 × .6 × .5 × 1 × .4 × 1 = .06 .5 × 1 × .6 × .5 × 0 × 0 = 0 .5 × 1 × .6 × .5 × 0 × 1 = 0 .5 × 1 × .4 × 0 = 0 .5 × 1 × .4 × 1 = .2 .5 × 0 × 0 = 0 .5 × 0 × 1 = 0

Talked?

! # ! # ! # ! # ! # ! # ! # ! #

Figure 2: The terminal values of the tree diagram in Figure 1 in 2, while replacing the values for probability of returning a call with x, and probability of not returning a call with 1 − x.

PItJ∪JtI (x) = =

PA (x) + PC (x) + PE (x) + PG (x) + PI (x) + PK (x) + PM (X) + PO (x) (.5 × 1) + (.5 × 1 × x × .5 × 1) + (.5 × 1 × x × .5 × 1 × x × .5 × 1) +(.5 × 1 × x × .5 × 1 × x × .5 × 0) + [.5 × 1 × x × .5 × 1 × (1 − x) × 0] +(.5 × 1 × x × .5 × 0 × 0) + [.5 × 1 × (1 − x) × 0] + (.5 × 0 × 0)

= = PItJ∪JtI (x) =

.5 + .25x + .125x2 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 .5 + .25x + .125x2 .125x2 + .25x + .5

5

This function can be veriﬁed by merely plugging the original probability of a returned call, .6, hereinto:

PItJ∪JtI (.6) = .125(.6)2 + .25(.6) + .5 = .125(.36) + .15 + .5 = .045 + .15 + .5 = .695

Because the answers come out to be the same, there is no doubt that this is the correct formula. A graph for the function is shown in Figure 3. The domain is 0 ≤ x ≥ 1, because the probability of returning the call cannot be less than zero, or more than one, yet it can be either one of them. If the probability of returning a call is zero, then there is a 50% chance of Johnny and Ingred talking that day (in the case that Johnny picks up the phone on the ﬁrst try); if there is a 100% probability of calls being returned, there is an 87.5% chance of Johnny and Ingred talking that day.

Figure 3: The graph for PItJ∪JtI (x) = .125x2 + .25x + .5

6

3.2

On the value of x in PItJ∪JtI (x), given that the probability of talking was 85%

If PItJ∪JtI (x) = .85, what is x?

PItJ∪JtI (x) = .85 .125x2 + .25x + .5 = .85 .125x2 + .25x = .35 .125x2 + .25x − .35 = 0

x=

(.25)2 − 4 × .125 × (−.35) 2(.125) √ −.25 ± .0625 + .175 = √.25 −.25 ± .2375 = .25 √ −.25 .2375 = ± .25 √ .25 .2375 x = −1 ± .25 −(.25) ± x ≈ 0.949358869

Because we can’t have a negative value for x, that is the only answer.

4

4.1

The Answers

P (ItJ ∪ JtI)

The probability of the union of “Ingred talked to Johnny” and “Johnny talked to Ingred” is 0.695, or 6.95%.

7

4.2

4.2.1

PItJ∪JtI (x)

The function

The probability of the union of “Ingred talked to Johnny” and “Johnny talked to Ingred”, where x is the probability of calls being returned is represented by the following function:

PItJ∪JtI (x) = .125(x)2 + .25(x) + .5

4.2.2

The value of x, given that PItJ∪JtI (x) = .85

The value of x, given that PItJ∪JtI (x) = .85 is approximately 0.040358869.

8

- 0010-4655(79)90102-4.pdfuploaded bypomon666
- Extra Practice Set 1.docxuploaded byTeacher Mazita Idrissi School
- C3 Algebra - Quadratics.pdfuploaded byمحمد الحمادي
- OR pptuploaded byMohit Agrawal
- solfuploaded byMuhammad Suleman
- Miet 2394 Cfd Lecture 8(2)uploaded bycepong89
- 58551934 Mathematics Paper1 Form 5 Mid Year Exam Answeruploaded bykw
- THE FIRST CONSTANT OF SMARANDACHEuploaded byRyanElias
- CDuploaded byxamanian
- Komputasi CBN & Spreadsheetuploaded byFitra Dani
- number devil answer bookletuploaded byapi-313091772
- Matlab_3uploaded bysumitr93
- Mathematica Guideuploaded byMathias Eder
- Linear Thomas 2uploaded byBBaire703
- Homework 3 Composite Functionsuploaded byTerry Gao
- Eng Econ Cash Flow L4 -MME 4272uploaded byAmir Firdaus
- 168140052 Civil Engineering Quiz Bee Questions Iuploaded byMichiel Angelo Albaladejo Peroja
- 0.9_bzpc4euploaded bydavogezu
- Exercises for Contrôle géométrique (M2 EDP Paris 11 Orsay)uploaded bydarioprn
- Binomial Distributionuploaded byRahul Deka
- Gradient Estimate of a Neumann Eigenfunction on a Compact Manifold With Boundaryuploaded bycrocoali000
- Courses Circuits and Systems 2009 Convolutionuploaded byBizura Saruma
- Direct Stiffness Methoduploaded byImran Ali
- SSC Algebra Specimen Paper - IIuploaded byAsif Turk
- HW_F94uploaded byDiego Gonzáles
- MCQ Ch 7 FSC Part1 Naumanuploaded byAngelic Shine
- New York university mathematical modeling lecture notesuploaded bygohan48
- Folio Additional Matematikuploaded byAmirul Bass
- Business Mathematicsuploaded byAhmad Hirzi Azni
- 9709_s05_ms_5uploaded bytess_15

- HEALTH: 1st Semester: Notes 25-36. Sexual Healthuploaded byIoannus de Verani
- CHEM: Lab Report: Identifying an Unknown Compounduploaded byIoannus de Verani
- CHEM: Lab Report: Mole-Mass Relationships in Reactionsuploaded byIoannus de Verani
- HEALTH: 1st Semester: Notes 1-12. Mental Healthuploaded byIoannus de Verani
- CHEM: Chapter 9 Review: Questions 1-39 (odd)uploaded byIoannus de Verani
- CHEM: Lab Report: Mass of Solid to Mass of Gas Inquiryuploaded byIoannus de Verani
- CHEM: Lab Report: Moles to Coefficientsuploaded byIoannus de Verani
- HEALTH: 1st Semester: Notes 13-24. Body Systemsuploaded byIoannus de Verani
- Primī homīnēs in lunā: “The First Men in the Moon”uploaded byIoannus de Verani
- 1st sg middle -h2uploaded byIoannus de Verani
- Indo-European and the Indo-Europeansuploaded byIoannus de Verani
- Accent in Proto-Indo-European Athematic Nouns Antifaithfulness in Inflectional Paradigmsuploaded byIoannus de Verani
- General Linguistics and Indo-European Reconstructionuploaded byIoannus de Verani
- Languages in prehistoric Europe north of the Alpsuploaded byIoannus de Verani
- Europaio A Brief Grammar of the European Languageuploaded byIoannus de Verani
- CHEM: Lab Report: Molarityuploaded byIoannus de Verani
- CHEM: Lab Report: Mole and Mass Relationshipsuploaded byIoannus de Verani

Close Dialog## Are you sure?

This action might not be possible to undo. Are you sure you want to continue?

Loading