1AC – Plan Text
The United States federal government should authorize the licensing of companies based in the United States to participate in the development of Cuba’s energy resources.
” Times. economic embargo against Cuba is clearly a failure and now that the Cold War is over its continuation has only served to force Cuba into the arms of Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez. Their otherwise bitter cold-war feud (they haven't had diplomatic relations since 1961) is best known for a 50-year-long trade embargo and history's scariest nuclear standoff.S.S. But the U. Now is the time to lift the embargo. or at least ease it to allow U. But any agreement would be more like a lead standard unless Cuba were included.S. “Cuba's Oil Drilling Plan Is A Great Reason To End U. http://www. a massive.forbes.S.8599. Coast Guard and Interior Department did. standards proved all that golden during the 2010 BP disaster) and is letting unofficial U. The Spanish oil company Repsol YPF. delegations in to discuss the
maritime oil rig. oil companies and drilling contractors to compete for drilling prospects in Cuba. who consider Washington their imperialist enemy. part of the Gulf. equipment they need to help avoid or contain possible spills. President Obama’s Interior Secretary Ken Salazar met with officials in
Mexico Monday to discuss the creation of a “gold standard” on drilling in the Gulf.
And.1AC – Inherency
CONTENTION ONE IS INHERENCY Now is the key time to modify the embargo – Cuba is facing a crossroads but will commit to drilling for oil
Helman ‘11(http://www.com/sites/christopherhelman/2011/04/06/cubas-oil-drilling-plan-is-agreat-reason-to-end-u-s-embargo/. noting the U.¶ The Straits. the U.S. know-how.S. standards (not that U. Embargo”. 2012. Christopher Helman[Forbes staff writer]) The U. Florida.S. which keeps regional headquarters in Trinidad.com/time/world/article/0.S.S. examination of the Scarabeo 9. and newfound emphasis on deepwater safety from being deployed in Cuba.00. Plus.html)
On Christmas Eve.000 bpd of cut-price oil through Pdvsa. and that's why we should aim to do both. damages. the Scarabeo 9.S.S. Though BOEMRE has finally begun to issue new drilling permits in the U. Cuba's
commitment to offshore oil exploration — drilling may start this weekend — raises a specter that haunts both nations: an oil spill in the Florida Straits like the BP calamity that tarred the nearby Gulf of Mexico two years ago and left $40 billion in U.S. has tacitly loosened its embargo against Cuba to give firms like Repsol easier access to the U. would prefer to [can’t] stop the Cuban drilling — but can't. which Repsol agreed to and Cuba abided. It makes no economic or even political sense to prevent American capital. Senator Bill Nelson of Florida tells TIME. It’s a no-brainer that we would rather have Chevron drilling 100 miles off Florida than Gazprom or Pdvsa."¶ Cuba meanwhile has tacitly agreed to ensure that its safety measures meet U. But it wasn't Cuban authorities who came aboard the Scarabeo 9 to give it the once-over: officials from the U. offshore drilling industry needs the business–which would be substantial if estimates of a possible 20 billion barrels come to pass. "But the two are not mutually exclusive. other countries will beat the US there – US must act in response to inevitable drilling
Padgett 12 (Tim Padgett. ferried it to the Caribbean to perform deep-ocean drilling off Cuba — whose communist government believes as much as 20 billion barrels of
crude may lie near the island's northwest coast.S. Now.¶ On any other occasion that might have raised the ire of the Cubans. "Preventing drilling off Cuba better protects our interests than preparing for [a disaster] does.S. As a result. was part of an unusual choreography of cooperation between the two countries. an equally vital body of water that's home to some of the world's most precious coral reefs. the pace of activity remains glacial. even though the rig won't be operating in U.S.S. 27." U. waters. “The Oil Off Cuba: Washington and Havana Dance at Arms
Length Over Spill Prevention. arrived at Trinidad and Tobago for inspection. separates Havana and Key West.2105598. who provides Cuba with 100. by a mere 90 miles. the U. Jan.
Because fewer than a tenth of the Scarabeo 9's components were made in America. Brazil.. who was part of one recent delegation. Venezuela.000 barrels of oil per day.000 sq km) zone.S. says the Cubans "seem very motivated to do the right thing.S. Cuba's threadbare economy — President Raúl Castro currently has to lay off more than 500. interests.000 jobs.
. infrastructure or means. Washington can't wield the
embargo cudgel and fine Repsol. Representative and House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairwoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of Miami say the oil will throw a lifeline to the Castro dictatorship — it needs to care as much if not more about its own environment. Malaysia. director of Florida's private Mote Marine Laboratory. Cuba
has signed or is negotiating leases with Repsol and companies from eight other nations — Norway. southeast regional director for the U. Angola and China — for 59 drilling blocks inside a 43.¶ Which means America has its own dilemma. ocean acidification and overfishing of symbiotic species like parrotfish that keep coral pruned of corrosive algae. As much as the U. India. which ships the island 120.S. and they run roughly parallel to the 350-milelong (560 km) Florida Reef Tract (FRT).
If a spill were to damage the FRT. and a
quarter of its coastal environment is set aside as protected." says David Vaughan. Eventually.). Geological Survey estimates at closer to 10 billion bbl. where tourism generates $60 billion annually — which is why the state keeps oil rigs out of its waters. "it would be a catastrophic event. senior attorney for the Environmental Defense Fund in New York. like a clean-up fund similar to the $1 billion the U. Cuba's pristine beaches and reefs attract sunbathers and scuba divers the world over. The Florida Keys lie as close as 50 miles from where Repsol is drilling.¶ A serious oil spill could scuttle those drilling operations — especially since Cuba hasn't the technology. which has interests in the U.precautions being taken by Havana and the international oil companies it is contracting. the world's third largest barrier reef and one of its most valuable ocean eco-systems. The FRT is already under assault from global warming. the government hopes to extract half a million bpd or more."¶ It's also the right business thing to do." says Billy Causey. they care as much if not more about their ocean resources. keeps on reserve. And there is another big economic anxiety: Cuba's $2 billion tourism industry. Vietnam. No Cuban official
would discuss the matter.S.S. which draws $2 billion from tourism each year and supports 33.S. would like to thwart Cuban petro-profits — Cuban-American leaders like U. to confront such an emergency.S.¶ So is much of coastal Florida.S. "The dilemma for Cuba is that as much as they want the oil. but Dan Whittle. companies from offering spill prevention/containment hardware and services to Repsol and other drilling contractors.) Nor
can it in good conscience use the embargo in this case to keep U.000 state workers — is acutely energy-dependent on allies like Venezuela. (Most of the other firms don't have U.000-sq. for doing business with Cuba. So Havana is eager to drill for the major offshore reserves geologists discovered eight years ago (which the U.-mile (112. National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration's marine sanctuary program.
and Helix certainly proved their capabilities during the 2010 Macondo well blowout and oil spill. Hurricanes are the clearest examples of shared natural disasters.1AC – Oil Spills Advantage
ADVANTAGE 1 IS OIL SPILLS We’re on the brink – US-based parts are crucial to immediately respond to spills – any spill in the status quo would be catastrophic
Almeida 12’ (BY ROB ALMEIDA ON MAY 18. On land. a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy and director of the Cuba Project. Also. and she is due for her 1-year “checkup” on 19 August 2012. Brian M.3 While Cuban and U. During the twentieth century.It’s a great start. and remediate the marine and terrestrial ecosystems that are damaged by hurricanes. Because many hurricanes—Katrina and Ike being twenty-first century examples—strike both countries. and storm surges. Man-made environmental disasters. such as the dramatic explosion of the Deepwater Horizon oil
for new oil and gas platforms off its northern coast.S.S.Nobody is predicting a catastrophe.2 Aside from physical damage to such ecosystems from more turbulent water. During the same period. For example. if an uncontrolled blowout does occur.4
.S. mainland.and long-term implications of gas. there exists a shared need after such disasters to respond to the negative effects.) Tyvek suits.000 active oil and gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico off the U. scientists have shared motivation to
.org/article/2012/biodiversity-without-borders) The most urgent environmental problems requiring bilateral action are broadly classified as disasters — both those that occur naturally and those that are man-made.In addition…The Scarabeo 9 was classed by DNV on 19 August 2011 in Singapore. but there’s no substitute for being prepared in case disaster strikes. As expected. are not authorized for use in Cuban waters. the MWCC and others.com/drilling-cuba-embargo-badly/ )
This was the subject of last week’s panel discussion at the Carnegie Center for International Policy in Washington. the panel reiterated. In fact. it is imperative for the economic and ecological wellbeing of both Cuba and the United States that exploration is pursued with enhanced safeguards to avoid the mistakes of past disasters. including environmental problems created by rain. Cuba also has plans
Given the near.S. hurricanes can also negatively impact water quality. they currently cannot do so According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). however Cuba
is under a full economic and diplomatic embargo with massive implications.This is a significant issue considering
the BP “capping stack” weighs somewhere around a half million pounds. coastline. any
training that will result in a professional license or certification is off limits to Cubans. Repsol contracted Helix Energy Solutions Group to provide immediate well intervention and other subsea services in case of well issues. Prior to
commencing drilling operations. The trade embargo prohibits OEM spare parts or repair items to be sold to Repsol. are not authorized to be brought into Cuba due to supposed military applications. half of which were major. oil. 167
hurricanes struck the U.3) The
deepwater drilling experts in the US are not authorized to provide assistance to Cuba in case of a disaster. Boom is the director of the Caribbean Biodiversity Program and
Bassett Maguire Curator of Botany at the New York Botanical Garden. there exist nearly 4. hurricane damage to ecosystems can be even more severe than in the ocean. and How the Embargo Could be Very Costly for the US http://gcaptain. these essential piece of equipment will not be available until authorization is given and a delivery method determined. monitor. Reports indicate there are no cranes in Cuba capable of lifting such a piece of gear that massive on to a ship. 4.
assess. BOOM. with a 3 month window on either side of th at date. or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). made landfall over Cuba. http://www. 2012 Rob Almeida is Partner and Chief Marketing Officer at gCaptain Drilling Off Cuba. can likewise be of shared concern to the Cuban and U. particularly to coral reefs.sciencediplomacy. damaged native vegetation will possibly be more prone to colonization by exotic. 36 hurricanes. seagrass beds. noxious species such as Australian pine and Brazilian pepper. governments. and chemical dispersants on the Gulf of Mexico’s biodiversity. Of these. The Gulf of Mexico is a rich source of oil and gas and will remain so for decades to come. DC. Most major hurricanes occurring in the Caribbean during the past century have resulted in documented extensive perturbations of shallow-water marine ecosystems. DNV has told us that there will be no US-based employees involved.“There
is no standing agreement with Cuba on what to do in case of a blowout.2) The “capping stacks” which have been created by Helix ESG. 62 were major (categories 3. and reports indicate that Cuban drillers on board the Scarabeo 9 are being exceedingly cautious. such as oil and natural gas leaks.4) All the training programs that have been developed post-Macondo are not available for Cuban nationals. This means. This means:1) The Scarabeo 9’s blowout preventer.
Bilateral relations between Cuba and the US are key to solving for oil spills – regional expertise is the only way to solve Boom ’12 (BRIAN M. technical expertise from the OEM cannot be provided. wind.” says Wayne Smith. and coastal mangroves. the essential work-wear for HAZMAT cleanup. 08/14/12. the most crucial piece of well control equipment on board the rig was made by a US company. BP.
February 4. the other for a period of time when they did not. Even if oil and gas leaks or spills are restricted to Cuban or U. one for a period of time when virtual particles encountered East Coast beaches about five to seven days after release . The reason is that water under the influence of northerly winds is driven toward Florida's East Coast. As director of the USF Ocean Circulation Group and co-director of the USF Coastal Ocean Modeling and Prediction System his research presently emphasizes in-situ measurements. named after the discovering scientist. 1975.¶ By downloading the modeled velocity fields and inserting virtual particles indicative of surface oil. Neglecting eddies.¶ This Ekman transport.tampabay. ’12 (Robert H. more than luck will be
.D. The two nations’ shared marine ecosystem is the foundation for the mid Atlantic and Gulf Stream fisheries. we used January 2012. or might a threat to South Florida's beaches exist. the negative environmental impacts can be important regionally. it
is possible to simulate the
movement of oil that may be spilled on the surface using a computer model that contains these physics (geostrophic and Ekman
motions). analyses. is geostrophic. relative to its potential. drilling was inevitable. One particularly suited for the task is run by the Navy along with academic partners.S. the pressure difference across the Gulf Stream and the Coriolis force by the Earth's rotation. but if it isolated Florida from Cuba. risks
are inherent to oil exploration and production. other than nuclear. http://www. For illustrative purposes. Without readily achievable energy alternatives to hydrocarbons. and models of the West Florida Shelf circulation and the interactions between the shelf and the estuaries. Weisberg.¶ Recognizing that weather fronts regularly transit the Florida peninsula. with southerlies on the leading side and northerlies on the trailing side. University of Rhode Island. then how did so many Cuban rafters reach the shoreline between Miami and Palm Beach over the past 50 years? To address this and the potential for oil to reach the Florida coastline.. while discussing potential spill mitigation. the local wind-driven part can achieve this. Ph. my associates and I can track where the oil might go in time and space. it is imperative that there should be a mechanism for rapid. The result is a net transport of water directed to the right of the wind. Thus flooding of low-lying areas on the East Coast tends to occur after the passage of strong weather fronts when the winds are northerly.com/opinion/columns/tracking-a-potential-cuba-oilspill/1213878)¶ LA Numerous articles continue to be written about oil exploration off the coast of Cuba. and that the interval between successive fronts is days to a week or so. and new particles were seeded every three hours to mimic a continual release of oil.¶
. Regardless of these
simulations. It is unfortunate that we were unable to surmount the political and diplomatic issues pertaining to the present
oil exploration in Cuban waters because once the oil potential was identified years ago. and the swift Gulf Stream regularly transits the deepwater region north of Cuba. including deep wells. The first. Professor. Neutrally buoyant
particles were distributed about an exploration site claimed to be 22 miles north of Havana. Such risks increase with deepwater drilling in swift currents.oil spill would reach Florida in 5 days
Weisberg.¶ Two examples are provided. claim that the swift currents of the Gulf Stream will protect South Florida by carrying most oil away before it could hit the beaches. on continental shelves. there were ongoing concerns about the possible reach of the disaster. The second is driven by local winds. joint response to these shared threats.¶ Whereas a vibrant economy requires energy. and tuna. 2012. Fortunately. explains why sea level is higher than the normal high tide level on Florida's East Coast under northerly winds and lower than the normal high tide level under southerly winds. Special to the Times. However. The converse occurs along Florida's West Coast. The differences are due to
the local winds during these week-long simulation intervals. Is this correct. The result is a flow that nearly parallels the coastline. plants. Many important commercial and sport fish species breed and feed in Cuban waters. ¶ There are two primary components of flow. with increased drilling in the area. the geostrophic part alone would tend to isolate Cuba from Florida because it would be difficult for surface oil picked up on the Cuban side of the Gulf Stream to traverse across the region of maximum speed to the Florida side. the Deepwater Horizon spill remained mostly contained. and microbes that spend different parts of their life cycles in the territorial waters of each country.rig. waters. The local wind driven part is also a balance between two forces.6Given that urgent environmental problems can arise rapidly and harm the economic and ecological health of the United States and Cuba. grouper.¶ The geostrophic part is a balance between two forces. While Cuba and the United States are signatories to several international protocols for cooperation on containment of oil spills. it is important to consider the Gulf Stream in its entirety. simply recall the tar on South Florida beaches in the 1970s before the Clean Water Act restricted offshore bilge pumping. there is scant cooperation between them on this front—although there were at least some low-level meetings between the countries after the Deepwater Horizon blowout.5 Given the potential
of currents in the Gulf of Mexico to disperse spills from off the coast of one country to the waters and shores of the other. along with myriad other animals. Some federal officials. and in estuaries. given a drilling mishap?¶ The Gulf Stream indeed is swift. the friction of the wind on the sea surface and the Coriolis force by the Earth's rotation. However. So destruction of Cuban mangroves and coral reefs will impact stocks of species such as snapper. Weisberg is an
experimental physical oceanographer engaged in ocean circulation and ocean-atmosphere interaction studies in the tropics.¶ Given this conceptual discussion.
can expect that a prolonged spill would likely bring oil to South Florida beaches . driven by the large-scale winds over the Atlantic Ocean. whereas this tends to occur on the West Coast in advance of the front when the winds are southerly.
needed to avert future disasters
Timeframe immediate. it is ever more important for the United States to adopt a sound energy policy. Dr.
Dispersed oil could have greater ¶ deleterious effect on Cuba’s coral reefs.coral reefs protect against storms and dampen other environmental fluctuations. Peterson¶ Daniel J. Maintaining biodiversity is often critical to maintaining the functions of marine ecosystems. "indicating that more diverse ecosystems are more stable. n857 More generally. " ocean ecosystems play a major role in the global geochemical cycling of all the elements that represent the basic building blocks of living organisms . just as they do for terrestrial ecosystems. but these arguments have thus far rarely been raised in political debates. and prevailing weather and ¶ ocean current conditions— would play key factors in determining the extent and gravity of a ¶ spill’s impact.47 Like salt marshes. Fisheries. nonextractive ecosystem function that intact coral reef ecosystems provide. the primary three habitats at risk on Cuba’s ¶ North Coast near the area where exploration is occurring are coral reefs . Indiana U School Law) 2003
Biodiversity and ecosystem function arguments for conserving marine ecosystems also exist. and ¶ other natural resources-based
enterprises and activities in the region could experience adverse impacts on the scale of weeks to years. leading to extinction
Robin Kundis Craig (Associate Prof Law. marine and coastal resources of the United States. the environment in which the oil spilled. recreation.D¶ December 2012 “Bridging the Gulf¶ Finding Common Ground on Environmental and ¶ Safety Preparedness for Offshore Oil and Gas in Cuba”. which are fragile. n860 Thus.. and lush ¶ mangrove forests .org/sites/default/files/EDF-Bridging_the_Gulf-2012. vibrant state. John W. ¶ According to Dr. J.g. carbon. http://www. Whittle. human degradation of marine ecosystems
impairs the planet's ability to support life .D. Current evidence shows that.edf.S. including grouper. and feeding habitats for commercial fish species. oxygen. Jr.46 These habitats are found throughout the region. phosphorus. Multiple factors— including the type ¶ and amount of oil spilled." n859 Coral reef ecosystems are particularly dependent on their biodiversity .
complex and that many otherwise insignificant species have strong effects on sustaining the rest of the reef system. associate director of the Harte Research Institute and an ¶ expert on the Gulf of Mexico marine environment. n856 Waste
treatment is another significant.pdf If a spill were to occur in Cuban waters. slow-growing. where they provide ¶ breeding.Cuban oil spill trashes the Florida ecosystem – takes out key coral reefs and mangroves that are critical to biodiversity – Florida is a unique hotspot for this collapse
Emily A. and sulfur. marine and coastal habitats could suffer substantial long-term harm which could ¶ degrade . or even decades. snapper.
Coral collapse destroys the ecosystem." n858 In
a very real and direct sense. ¶ and the Bahamas could be placed at significant risk .45¶ In
Cuba. an ecosystem's ability to keep functioning in the face of disturbance is strongly dependent on its biodiversity. in general.¶ If chemical dispersants were used as part of the clean-up effort. as well as other less abundant but
necessary elements. birds) but also add additional toxicity. For example. ¶ and grunts. ¶ as well as alter the transport and ecological fate of oil constituents moving through the water ¶ column and then into the air or back towards the bottom.
. entire populations and habitats downstream in the U. Gulf of Mexico . Tunnell. nursery. therefore. and mangroves can die within a week to ¶ several months as a result of oil exposure. [*265] Most ecologists agree that the complexity
of interactions and degree
of interrelatedness among component species is higher on coral reefs than in any
This implies that the ecosystem functioning that produces the most highly valued components is also
other marine environment. seagrass beds. worldwide . services worth more than ten times the reefs' value for food production. coastal mangrove swamps are also ¶
difficult to clean up in the aftermath of an oil spill. and have low resilience ¶ to physical and chemical stresses.48
Reduced from their formerly healthy. but in greatest abundance ¶
in the Archipelago Sabana-Camaguey and the Archipelago Los Colorados. Ph.¶ and Douglas N. coastal tourism. ¶ such important habitats could lose their ability to support
the fisheries and
marine life that ¶ depend on them . besides significant tourism values .the most economically valuable ecosystem service coral reefs provide. Rader. in turn. nitrogen. they could reduce impacts ¶ on fauna for which oiling per se is the greatest threat (e.
especially when the United States
has within its territory relatively pristine marine ecosystems that may be unique in the world.and about the actual effect of human activities on marine ecosystems. Non-use biodiversity values for marine ecosystems have been calculated in the wake of
marine disasters.even though we are not completely sure about causation or about how to fix every problem. economic value. and we will take
the biosphere with us .
. like the Exxon Valdez oil spill in Alaska.maintaining and restoring the biodiversity of marine ecosystems is critical to maintaining and restoring the ecosystem services that they provide. However. but we do know this much:
if we kill the ocean we kill ourselves. The United States has traditionally failed to protect marine ecosystems because it was difficult to detect anthropogenic harm to the oceans. n861 Similar calculations could derive preservation values for marine wilderness. should not be "the sole or even primary justification for conservation of ocean ecosystems. Ethical arguments also have considerable force and merit." n862 At the forefront of such arguments should be a recognition of how little we know about the sea . Ecosystems
like the NWHI coral reef ecosystem should inspire lawmakers and policymakers to admit that most of the time we really do not know what we are doing to the sea and hence should be preserving marine wilderness whenever we can . or economic value equivalents. We may not know much about the sea. but we now know that such harm is occurring .
" Mateu said. Murillo said the next 18 months would be the "most complex" part of President Raul Castro's reform program. which has already seen limited openings to private entrepreneurship and a relaxation of many social restrictions. which began in 2010. They point to China and Brazil as potential sources of new funding. Murillo insisted foreign investment is merely "a complement" to the country's plan for economic development. "The first stage of the reforms has so far. the island's economic tsar says. "We realised
429. redundant state workers were transferred to posts where there was more of a need. The government remains by far the largest employer. In a recent speech.com/news/cubas-economy-entering-crucial-stage-010105720. Castro himself acknowledged that
most Cubans have yet to feel the benefits of a slowly growing economy. “Cuba Oil Production: Cuba Waits Anxiously For Oil Dreams To Materialize”.1AC – Cuban Economy Advantage
ADVANTAGE 2 IS CUBAN ECONOMY Cuba’s transition to capitalism is at a crossroads – US action within the next 18 months is key to stabilize and solidify reforms
AAP 7/24/13 (Australian Associated Press is Australia's national news agency. independent farmers and co-operatives. announced by Castro in 2010. eliminate a half-million workers from bloated state payrolls. did not turn out as expected. and Cuban industry and environmental groups
. their employers." he added. financing or employment. However. "During what remains of the year 2013 and in 2014. Labour Ministry spokesman Carlos Mateu later told reporters that a plan to
injection of capital. the most profound transformations. aim to resuscitate a flagging economy with a smattering of free-market principles. economists say. fundamentally. though officials insist that a wholesale embrace of capitalism is not planned. which supplies enough oil to meet half of the island's consumption at highly preferential terms.S.. “Cuba's economy is entering crucial stage”) Communist-led Cuba's experiment with limited capitalism is entering a crucial and transformative phase this year with the decentralisation of bloated state-run businesses. Currently all earnings go to the government.. He added that 23 per cent comprises private entrepreneurs. and US economic sanctions in place since the 1960s freeze it out of some potential lending sources.
http://au. been the elimination of prohibitions in society.html. but say neither is likely to put money into the island without reasonable confidence they will get their investment back. While some economists have argued that Cuba is in desperate need of an
Cuba does not have access to international capital markets. gone into business for themselves.com/2012/05/27/cuba-oil-production_n_1549081. with Cuba using future oil riches as collateral to secure new financing. such as which companies will be decentralised and what wil happen to those that fail. Marino Murillo says the goal is to improve efficiency of those businesses and let the successful ones keep more of their profits. Lee Hunt. the country has grown closer to countries such as China and Venezuela and has received soft credits particularly from the latter."
Murillo said in just his second face-to-face encounter with foreign journalists since he rose to prominence three years ago. Murillo said the changes contemplated over the coming months include letting state enterprises keep up to 50 per cent
of revenue to reinvest.
Oil Drilling solves Cuban economy – use as collateral to secure foreign investments from China and Brazil
Haven ’12 (http://www. The other
that a phenomenon of movement was occurring in the labour force.huffingtonpost.000 Cubans were now licensed as independent workers. He acknowledged the island must attract more foreign investment. An effort to give more autonomy to the sugar industry in 2012 that included new leadership and a restructuring of the once-powerful Sugar Ministry has yet to result in improved harvests. "We must remove all impediments that put the brakes on possibilities. eased travel restrictions and established mortgages and small-business credits. saying so far they have been insufficient to turn around the economy and attract foreign investment. with many workers leaving government jobs to open or work for small businesses. private farmers are cultivating land with the government's blessing and dozens of independent nonagricultural co-operatives were launched recently under a pilot program. Mateu said that instead there was a kind of realignment of labour. Hunt has worked to bring U. After five decades of a state-dominated economy. which controls all spending and distributes resources to successful and failing enterprises alike. Outside analysts have questioned the scope and pace of the reforms. said the stakes are
enormous for Cuba that one of the wells hits oil before the Scarabeo-9 leaves.html. we will work on
Castro's economic and social reforms. but insisted that Cuba will do so on its own terms and will not accept business proposals that don't contribute to the island in the way of technology. accounting for 77 per cent of jobs among the island's five million-strong workforce." Murillo said. In other cases.yahoo.finance. Murillo did not give many details about the next stage of the reforms. Authorities have also approved home and used car sales. Paul Haven*Associated Press Writer]) An oil find could change the game. hundreds of thousands of people have legally
. the recently retired president of the Houston-based International Association of Drilling Contractors.
this time the number could be several hundred thousand
flee ing to the U. Cuba’s actions have shown that its stance on drugs is more than hollow rhetoric as indicated by its increasing seizure of drugs – 7. exiled from power. the new
advance in Cuba in any direction other than its own strengthening as a hegemonic group. which will only compound the Cuban situation.” Havana Times. Equally important. may be creating its next series of transnational criminal problems. http://www. Instead they should seek the causes from within. finances and the dual monetary system. under the current U. "If the only rig you can work with is gone.. 7/8/2013. According to Carlos Marx.
http://www. 8.org/?p=96009 A new kind of class confrontation The new social composition of classes that the “updating” process is creating presents at one extreme the “unanticipated” bureaucratic political and military class that believes itself to be the legitimate owner of the country’s entire economy. AD 7/11/13. let them not blame the imperialists.
Cuban instability spills over into multiple hotspots and leads to global conflict
Gorrell 5 (Tim Gorrell.together. they have technologies. be it the wealthy classes or the germinating socialist class. benefitted by the updating measures but still held down by the State’s strictures.S. "You are not going to dig any holes without a shovel.S. In this way.S. against all of their classes and current social groupings. be it for the development of facing a common obstacle: the centralized state system and its bureaucracy determined to maintain itself in power indefinitely. In addition to Cubans on the island. A power vacuum or absence of order will create the conditions for instability and civil war . Cuba is along the axis of the drug-trafficking flow into the U. has always aspired to return and today continues to plot its comeback on the heels of large international capital. Only themselves to blame There’s no doubt about it: the private capitalism or to socialize the economy. The new small and medium capitalists who exploit their own salaried workers represent a kind of nouveau riche class.S.26 Many were criminals. all under the label of “cuentapropistas” *self-employed]. “Cuba’s Burning Economic Contradictions. creating a refugee crisis. At the other extreme is the dispossessed and badly paid class of salaried workers that the state exploits. limitations and befuddlement. who work together and divide the profits. Then there are the true selfemployed workers who don’t exploit outside labor – from the intellectuals and artists with large incomes right down to the elderly peanut sellers – all of them burdened by abusive state taxes.5 tons in 1995. I don’t intend to sharpen contradictions that require
peaceful and democratic solutions. when the productive forces are held back by the relations of production – in this case the salaried State workers – revolutions appear . there will be those in exile who will return claiming authority. and 13 tons in 2000. settled fundamentally in Miami.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074. the Miami “mafia”.8 tons in 1999. Whether Raul or another successor from within the current government can hold power is debatable. Cuba’s problems of a post Castro transformation only worsen. then must deal with an unstable country 90 miles off its coast. the U. by adhering to a negative containment policy. nor much less the peaceful democratic and socialist left who have done everything possible to help find the road that they have blocked. The bureaucratic bourgeoisie now finds itself confronting all of these other classes and national groupings because it lives off of them exploiting all of them directly through salaried work or via abusive taxes and monopoly control of the economy. it's like somebody took your shovel away. The salaried workers
exploited by these newly wealthy live better than the State salaried workers and as such prefer private capitalism. Lieutenant Colonel. in their own self-interest. The Castro government as a matter of policy does not support the drug trade. maintains the “wait and see” approach. trade. they are also smothered by state regulations.S. The U."
Continued economic malaise risks Cuban internal instability and civil war
Campos 7/8 Pedro Campos. thousands will flee the island. In fact. that individual will nonetheless extend the current policies for an indefinite period. but objectively the tendency of the class composition of Cuban society and an analysis of its interests presents the
bureaucratic bourgeoisie created by State socialism as a kind of class that stands in opposition to social and economic positioned themselves against the entire Cuban people. are
productive forces in Cuba. They are the class that is impeding the development of all the others. In the midst of this chaos. And there are remnants of the dissident community within Cuba who will attempt to exercise similar authority. even if you know the treasure is down there. “CUBA: THE NEXT UNANTICIPATED ANTICIPATED STRATEGIC
CRISIS?” 3/18/05. the “counterrevolutionary” forces." Hunt said. AK) Regardless of the succession. policy.S. from Columbia. formally organized or not. When Cuba finally collapses anarchy is a strong possibility if the U. However.27 While
. The state throws the new capitalists and their salaried workers into the same sack as the authentic self-employed.
the Mariel boatlift in 1980 125.000 fled the island. there is a class that’s not present in Cuba but which continues to push its agenda: the true wealthy capitalist class with large businesses. And finally there are the cooperative members.dtic.havanatimes. Apart from all these. This class. Later.
Such activity could increase direct attacks and disrupt the economies.S.S. The ramifications of this action could very well fuel greater anti-American sentiment throughout the Americas. does not have the luxury or the resources to pursue the traditional American model of crisis management. If these groups can export terrorist activity from Cuba to the U. totals 1. afford to sustain the status quo and simply let the Cuban situation play out? The U. North Korea will continue to be an unpredictable crisis in waiting. Younger Cuban Americans do not necessarily subscribe to the hard-line approach. creating the conditions for another insurgency .S. diplomatic and economic resources.5% of the population. In view of such global issues.S. If there were no Cuban restraints.S. The only issue is what happens then?
Caucasus region are potential hot spots for terrorist activity. U. or
there may be individuals within the government and outside who engage in drug trafficking and a percentage of drugs entering the U.S. threatening the stability of the fragile democracies that are budding throughout the region. pursue a new approach to Cuba in an effort to facilitate a manageable transition to post-Castro Cuba?
. the opportunity for radical fundamentalist groups to operate in the region increases.S.S. (Table 1) The time has come to look realistically at the Cuban issue. the flow of drugs to the U.28 Most of these exiles reside in Florida. In the midst of an unstable Cuba. These are known and potential situations that could easily require all or many of the elements of national power to resolve. may be forced to deploy military forces to Cuba. There is justifiable concern that Africa and the
relations.241. can little afford to be distracted by a failed state 90 miles off its coast. may pass through Cuba. What if China resorts to aggression to resolve the Taiwan situation? Will the U. domestic political support is also turning against the current negative policy. Iran could conceivably be the next target for U.-Cuban
The U. Castro will rule until he dies.
throughout the hemisphere then the war against this extremism gets more complicated . so these areas should be secure. given the present state of world affairs. These warnings were sounded when the administration did not anticipate operations in Iraq consuming so many military. The administration.the Cuban government is not the path of least resistance for the flow of drugs. their influence has been a factor in determining the margin of victory in the past two presidential elections.S. The President and other government and military leaders have warned that the GWOT will be long and protracted. the U. can the U. because recent polls of Cuban Americans reflect a decline for President Bush based on his policy crackdown. could be greatly facilitated by a Cuba base of operation and accelerate considerably. The Cuban American population in the U. These changes signal an opportunity for a new approach to U.S. There is a clear softening in the Cuban-American community with regard to sanctions.S. pre-emptive action. But this election strategy may be flawed. go to war over Taiwan? Additionally. We also cannot ignore China .685 or 3.S. In light of a failed state in the region. is at a crossroads: should the policies of the past 40
years remain in effect with vigor? Or should the U.S. A proactive policy now
can mitigate these potential future problems.
Policy Innovation Memorandum No. he may have had other reasons for picking the destinations that he did. the site where the first wells will be drilled is a tough one for even seasoned response teams to operate in. The failed Macondo well that triggered the calamitous Deepwater Horizon oil spill in April 2010 had broadly similar features. “Why has China snubbed Cuba and Venezuela?. situated forty-eight miles from shore and approximately five thousand feet below sea level. He then travelled to Costa Rica and Mexico (pictured)—two countries that are at least as much a part of America’s orbit as Cuba and Venezuela are part of the “Beijing Consensus”. took him tantalisingly close to Beijing’s strongest ideological allies in the region.
effective method to respond to a spill would be surface and subsurface dispersants. Why this snub to two friendly nations that have been lavished with Chinese largesse in recent years. Cuba and Venezuela. Visits to Cuba and Venezuela might well have raised distracting questions when Mr Xi meets Barack Obama in Southern California on June 7th. which would bring oil from Cuba's offshore wells to the Florida coast within six to ten days.and China-loving Venezuelan leader?The short answer is: for simplicity’s sake. However. A spill off Florida's coast could ravage the state's $57 billion per year tourism industry. you can always mollify the m with money. The most. Skimming or burning the oil may not be feasible in such fast-moving water. which would render standard response technologies like containment booms ineffective. China’s business relationship with Latin America gets less attention than its dealings with Africa. Instead of visiting
XI JINPING'S first visit to Latin America and the Caribbean as Cuba. on June 6th. from May 31st to June 6th. Not quite in the same league. The beauty of having a chequebook as thick as China’s is that if you give your friends the cold shoulder. burnt. Unlike the calm Gulf of Mexico.” published Jun 6 th 2013. Yet he steered clear of both of them. he may be trying to respond to Mr Obama’s “pivot” to Asia by showing that China is developing its own s phere of influence in America’s backyard. Mr Xi stopped off in an English-speaking Caribbean nation. the Cuba. uncontained oil cannot be dispersed. as our story on Mr Xi’s visit to Latin America points out. Blake Clayton is fellow for energy and national security at the Council on Foreign Relations.S. “Addressing the Risk of a Cuban Oil Spill”. a Spanish oil company. http://www.
And. but in terms
. Deepwater drilling off the Cuban coast also poses a threat to the United States.
Venezuela’s oil minister announced that he had secured an extra $4 billion from China to drill for oil. Oil industry experts doubt that it has a strong understanding of how to prevent an offshore oil spill or stem a deep-water well blowout. Firstly. Coast Guard) at the Council
on Foreign Relations. as his predecessor Hu Jintao did on his first presidential trip to the region. arrived in Cuban waters in January 2012 to drill Cuba's first exploratory offshore oil well.org/cuba/addressing-risk-cuban-oil-spill/p27515) A Chinese-built semisubmersible oil rig leased by Repsol. Early estimates suggest that Cuban offshore
oil and natural gas reserves are substantial—somewhere between five billion and twenty billion barrels of oil and upward of eight billion cubic feet of natural gas.1AC – China Advantage
ADVANTAGE 3 IS HEGEMONY China is committed to drilling in Cuba now and will fail – lack of new equipment means past mistakes get repeated
Bert & Clayton ’12 (Melissa & Blake Melissa Bert is a military fellow (U. which (as if to rub it in) is only a short hop from Caracas.
http://www. 15. the island’s latest fad. and possibly only.800 feet. Council on Foreign Relations. The exploratory well is seventy miles off the Florida coast and lies at a depth of 5. increased economic presence cements Chinese hegemony in the region
Economist 6/6/13 (The Economist. Although the
United States typically welcomes greater volumes of crude oil coming from countries that are not members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). a surge in Cuban oil production would complicate the United States' decades-old effort to economically isolate the Castro regime. That may be why. and neither socialist government was likely to express publicly any offence at being left off the itinerary. but significant nonetheless. or skimmed.com/blogs/economist-explains/2013/06/economist-explains-3)
China’s president. Washington cannot count on the technical know-how of Cuba's unseasoned oil industry to address a spill on its own. the Havana Times reported this week that China was also planning to invest in Cuban golf courses. Moreover. in addition to $35 billion already provided by Beijing.cfr.economist. If dispersants are not applied close to the source within four days after a spill. Trinidad and Tobago. the surface currents in the area where Repsol will be drilling move at a brisk three to four knots. especially at a time when both are struggling to come to terms with the death in March of Hugo Chávez.
a rival in low-cost manufacturing.05% of Mexican foreign direct investment. China’s
currently modest influence is providing it with triumphs of ever-growing scale in strategically important business. or whether it has the right to pursue its national interests in Latin America and other parts of the world. 1st quarter. Although no specific event may directly threaten the U. If they gain greater relative influence in the future.html?hpt=hp_c1) We take a lot for granted about the way the world looks today -. as elsewhere.com/2012/03/14/opinion/kagan-world-americamade/index. Today
there are more than 100. In terms of funding. the unprecedented global prosperity (even despite the current economic crisis). In Latin America. If the balance of power shifts in the direction of other powers. especially along the Pacific coast. Take the issue of democracy. particularly from Brazil. Up until now.of investment. the issue is not whether China is a threat. For four centuries prior to 1950. and it exports ten times as
Beijing may be looking for bases such as Mexico and Costa Rica where it can relocate Chinese factories and benefit from free-trade agreements with the United States. Nonetheless.
Hegemony stops great power wars and creates global stability
Kagan. while flooding the region with its manufactured goods. http://us.” Joint Force Quarterly. importing soya. China has
hoovered up the region’s commodities. and the absence of war among great powers. 2011. making the ability of the United States to successfully pursue its own national goals and interests increasingly dependent on the acquiescence of the PRC. Ch ile and Venezuela. 3-14-’12 (Robert. In a genuinely post-American world. copper. geographical. the balance of power in the world has favored democratic governments. we will see fewer democratic transitions and more autocrats hanging on to power. For several decades. the collective effect is to restructure the global flows of value added and influence in a manner beneficial to China. oil and other raw materials. But that is wishful thinking. it is important to recognize the dynamics that this reemergence creates in a region with close human. and rise to the opportunities that China’s entry into Latin America makes possible. a China expert at Mexico’s National Autonomous University.But as wages in China have increased and high energy prices have raised the cost of shipping goods from China to America. iron. Kevin Gallagher of Boston University says China has provided more loans to Latin America since 2005 than the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank combined. The visits to Mexico and Costa Rica may also represent a pivot of sorts in terms of the type of economic relationship China has with Latin America. For analysts focused on the “rise” of China in Latin America and elsewhere.pdf
Analysts looking for signs of imminent Chinese coercion or intervention in Latin America are likely to be disappointed. will have to work hard to stay relevant. have been frosty: China accounts for only about 0. Rather. The first half of the 20th century saw the two most destructive wars in the history of mankind. and to prepare to mitigate the risks. Since 1950 it has risen by an average of 4 percent a year. for one thing. national interest.
Chinese influence in Latin America threatens US global leadership
Ellis ’11 R. Senior Fellow at Brookings. but does it pose an immediate threat to Venezuela and Cuba? Probably not: China will continue to need their staunch ideological support over issues like Taiwan. deprived of the charismatic Chávez to court Beijing on their behalf. after Hong Kong. culture. global GDP rose by less than 1 percent a year.ndu. “America has made the world freer.S.cnn. But it does suggest that China’s economic interest in the region is broadening. Issue 60.
much to Mexico as it imports. Evan Ellis. “Chinese Soft Power in Latin America A Case Study. it is much bigger.edu/press/lib/images/jfq60/JFQ60_85-91_Ellis.the widespread freedom. http://www. the world order will inevitably change to suit their interests and preferences. Both China and Russia already protect dictators like Syria's Bashar al-Assad. This is the world America made when it assumed global leadership after World War II. the balance would shift toward the great power autocracies. But its relations with Mexico. Latin America and the Caribbean were collectively the second largest recipient of Chinese foreign direct investment between 2000-2011. Assistant Professor of National Security Studies in the Center for Hemispheric
Defense Studies at the National Defense University. Chinese
in Latin America still raises important national security issues.
even if the PRC does not explicitly seek to subvert or
marginalize the United States as part of its reemergence onto the world stage. What about the free
. According to Enrique Dussel. If that proves to be the case. and in prior centuries war among great powers was almost constant. safer and
wealthier” CNN. and billions of people have been lifted out of poverty. Would this world order survive if America declined as a great power? Some American intellectuals insist that a "Post-American" world need not look very different from the American world and that all we need to do is "manage" American decline. meet the challenges. In 1941 there were only a dozen democracies in the world. and economic ties to the United States. This idea thrills the Mexican government. Cuba and Venezuela. and technology arenas.
for the past 60 years no great powers have gone to war.
The 19th century was notable for two stretches of great-power peace of roughly four decades each. institutions. with the ultimate goal being preservation of the ruling party. They wouldn't kill
Although the Chinese have been beneficiaries of an open international economic order. by major wars among great powers and culminating in World War I. War among the great powers was a common. if not constant. and a peaceful international system that supports these. and the gradual but inevitable triumph of liberal democracy over other forms of government -. however. The present order will last only as long as those who favor it and benefit from it retain the will and capacity to defend it. over other visions that other nations and peoples may have. Or they may collapse altogether as we transition into another kind of world order. They might kill the goose because they can't figure out how to keep both it and themselves alive. the most destructive and deadly war mankind had known up to that point. If and when American power declines.which was what the world looked like right before the American order came into being. an increasingly global economy. International order is not an evolution. free trade economic order? People assume China and other rising powers that have benefited so much from the present system would have a stake in preserving it. they could end up undermining it simply because.forces of change that transcend the
there was nothing inevitable about the world that was created after World War II. strengthening international
the goose that lays the golden eggs. it is an imposition. Finally. and 18th centuries. We may discover then that the United States was essential to keeping the present world order together and that the alternative to American power was not peace and harmony but chaos and catastrophe -. evolving "norms" of international behavior. The era of American predominance has shown that there is no better recipe for great-power peace than certainty about who holds the upper hand. But multipolar systems have historically been neither stable nor peaceful. punctuated. as an autocratic society. or into disorder. Many people view the present international order as the inevitable result of human progress. the domination of liberal free market principles of economics. democratic principles of politics. what about the long peace that has held among the great powers for the better part of six decades? Many people imagine that American predominance will be replaced by some kind of multipolar harmony. the institutions and norms American power has supported will decline. 17th. too. occurrence in the long periods of multipolarity in the 16th. It is the domination of one vision over others -.market. But
actions of men and nations. a combination of advancing science and technology. But China's form of capitalism is heavily dominated by the state. their priority is to preserve the state's control of wealth and the power it brings.in America's case.
The Spanish oil company
Cuba’s estimates bear out. on
its way to Cuba. regulators.000 feet below the ocean’s surface. In each case. but without access to most of the resources.¶ The Deepwater Horizon spill. One hopes that Cuban engineers are as ingenious at jury-rigging a blowout preventer as they are with their old American cars. officials estimate a quarter to half that amount. make available the resources that the organizations involved with Scarabeo need to do their job well . But Repsol is also hampered by this country’s embargo on business with Cuba.¶ ¶ The U. technology. The International Association of Drilling Contractors estimates that Cuba has access to less than 5 percent of the resources used in combating the Deepwater Horizon disaster. regulators .S. nor will it supply replacement parts because it does not have a license to operate in Cuba.¶ The Cuban government is overseeing drilling deeper than BP’s Deepwater Horizon well and almost as close to U. for example. will drill at depths up to 6. containing and remediating the spill required the mobilization of vast resources from the federal government. Scarabeo 9. and should. Their engineers can be trained by international companies but cannot attend training in the United States or be certified by
any U.S. history. We are deeply
familiar with the two largest oil spills in U.1AC – Solvency
CONTENTION TWO IS SOLVENCY Cuba will cooperate with the plan and on spill response – the plan sends a clear signal to private investors that guarantees drilling happens immediately
Washington Post 12 (http://articles. organization. to protect the waters and beaches of Florida
and the southeast event of an emergency.¶ The
.S.000 vessels and is estimated by BP to have cost $42 billion.¶ But these regulators are severely
hampered by the embargo. 5.000 feet.S. government can . equipment and expertise essential to prevent and. where risks are rigorously identified and factored into drilling protocols.S.washingtonpost. Fla. the private sector and local communities. shores. at a well drilled by one of the world’s largest.¶ It
is vital to the environmental and economic interests of the United States that Cuba get this right. should something go wrong. They
also studied in detail the findings of the Deepwater Horizon commission and its companion technical report. the U. rules to the best of their abilities. to respond to spills . government would likely do that.¶
Cuban regulators are preparing themselves for the challenge ahead. providing them access to Scarabeo 9 when it was moored in Trinidad. began drilling last month 70 miles south of Key West. ¶ The blowout preventer on Scarabeo. as well as other international companies with offshore leases from Havana. as we learned on a September visit with these officials. Repsol
communicates with U.S. as the Cuban government pursues an era of energy independence. even though the Cuban government can have no direct contact with our regulators to learn more about those rules. and they have prepared action responses to each of the report’s key recommendations. In the should also be prepared. (U.S. and they have sent
engineers to Brazil to learn about the deepwater oil industry. from the Exxon Valdez in 1989 and following the BP Deepwater Horizon explosion in 2010. content permitted by law. They cannot engage in dialogue or share expertise with their U. But the company that made it will not commission or maintain it. The
Cuban government and Repsol have stated their intention to comply with U. counterparts . if needed. most experienced oil companies on one of the world’s most sophisticated drilling rigs. Cuban officials believe the rig may tap as
much as 20 billion barrels of oil. this
would bring the country’s oil reserves to roughly equal those of the United States . occurred under the watch of experienced U.¶ It
fortunate that a company with a good track record is the first to drill off the Cuba coast.S. was built in the United States — it constitutes the rig’s maximum 10 percent U.S.com/2012-0217/opinions/35445244_1_blowout-preventer-scarabeo-deepwater-horizon)
first deepwater oil rig.S. It United States from a potential
disaster. The response effort involved more than 5. But the help might well come too late. They have
on the implementation of a regulatory regime known
sought guidance from Norwegian counterparts
as the safety
" said Pinon. "So a lot of people are betting that either the embargo is going to be lifted. officials have shared information on drug interdiction. the oil could not be removed unless the U. the benefits of hitting a gusher would be enormous for Cuba.S. and Cuba is going to improve in some way. Cuban and U.
of the embargo.private sector needs considerable time to ready an effective response. owes the Paris Club of
. immigration and weather.S. without a change in law or regulation — to provide a general license to all qualified U. for instance. Because creditor nations nearly $30 billion. at a time when some feared the gushing oil could foul Cuban waters. "A lot of folks are looking at the energy sector in Cuba because they
are looking at a Cuba of five years from now.com/2012/05/27/cuba-oil-production_n_1549081. All of this has taken place without an official change in policy since the embargo was imposed in 1962 .¶ The Commerce and Treasury departments have issued some licenses to spill-response providers and are reviewing others. however. Cuba is shut off from borrowing from international lending institutions. The application process and the threat of very significant fines deter many companies from even considering the prospect.S. for instance. It is profoundly in the interest of the United States that we get this right. time to face reality. complicated equipment is required to pull oil from such depths. Cuba.¶ This is a charged issue. The only capping stacklicensed for use in Cuba in the event of a blowout on the ocean floor. one that many officials might want to avoid in an election
year. or 10 years from now. That’s already under way. it is not sufficient. is in Scotland.¶ Precedents exist for communication between the U. As welcome as that is. and Cuban governments on common interests. Engineers need to understand the rig.huffingtonpost. Some have proposed further restricting access to U. Companies need to prepare detailed contingency plans and to allocate appropriate equipment. and the island's own poor record of repayment has left most other creditors leery. companies that express an interest in helping prevent and respond to a Cuban oil spill. “Cuba Oil Production: Cuba Waits Anxiously For Oil Dreams To Materialize”. well characteristics and marine environment. Certain resources may not be available if summoned at the last minute. a week’s trip away. in the hopes that this might prevent the Cubans from accessing their oil.html. and the impact could be felt long before any oil was pumped. Unless they do." Still. embargo was lifted or altered. although Brazil and other countries are working to catch up. and the United States exports grain and medical supplies to Cuba. What it will do is help protect Key West. Providing
Repsol and Cuban regulators with access to resources for spill prevention and response will not further the development of Cuba’s oil and gas industry. technology for companies working with Cuba. The private sector needs a clear signal from the executive branch in order to move forward. It is.S.S.S. The Coast Guard kept Havana apprised of developments with the Deepwater Horizon spill.¶
USFG action is key – no other country could successfully extract Cuban oil
Haven ’12 (http://www. Several industry experts said the only country that produces the necessary apparatus is the United States. and has no licensed vessel or crew. or the relationship between the U. The Obama administration has the authority — now. Paul Haven*Associated Press Writer]) If exploitation does go forward.
In terms of raw numbers. It would make family reunification easier and normalize cultural exchange. rogue special forces soldiers. Hezbollah. to play his music.Zetas OSINT¶ On December 15th it was revealed in an indictment that Hezbollah has a substantial drug connection to the Mexican drug cartel Los Zetas. Hezbollah is one of the world’s largest terrorist groups and is based in southern Lebanon. like oil spills .S. U. The
Shiite organization receives funding from Iran and engaged in a proxy war with Israel in 2005. The problem is that for the United States this nightmare may have come true. Their decisions here lack consistency. a champion of gay rights and a leader
in Cuba’s successful program to fight HIV-AIDS.000 tons of cocaine into America and laundering over $250 million for the cartels”.com/intelligence-analysis/iron-triangle-of-terror-iran-hezbollah-and-los-zetas/ .Analysis Intelligence makes projections about foreign policy using open source public records. the historian who has led the renovation of dilapidated sections of Havana.” Politico
Opinion Contributor.com/news/stories/0512/76626_Page2. terrorism. It is responsible for some of the worst terrorist attacks of the last two decades. http://www. or transnational terrorists? How about all three? This scenario sounds like something out of a Hollywood movie.S. and Los Zetas?” on December 19. Hezbollah
may be the most influential organization preventing stability in the Middle East. 2011.
Some State Department officials have sought appreciation from Latin American scholars for issuing the 63 visas. Against this backdrop of a more measured visa policy. but the fact that Hezbollah and Los Zetas are working together is far worse. These visits have not been party-line productions. Improved relations with Cuba would benefit the U. Obama administration officials reportedly promised that they would issue visas to genuine Cuban scholars who were invited. including the 1983 Beirut bombing that killed 241 Americans. Eusebio Leal. the amount of cocaine that he tried to smuggle was equivalent to a cargo of 2. The administration even gave a visa to Mariela Castro Espin.S. Philip Brenner is a professor of international relations at American University. by enabling us to work together on problems of drug interdiction.S.S. She also happens to be President Raúl Castro’s daughter — which brought her participation at the LASA meeting to the attention of hard-line Cuban-Americans in Congress. The sheer volume of this transaction is cause for concern. They have indeed granted 63 visas to the 85 Cubans who applied this year.politico. and other leading
Cuban intellectuals have received visas to lecture. The Lebanese druglord Ayman Joumaa was indicted in absentia for. natural disaster preparation and human disaster prevention. several of which announced last month that they would not attend any future summit of the Americas unless Cuba participated.250 eighteen wheelers. The druglord has close ties to Hezbollah and functioned as a middle man between the terrorist organization and the cartels.¶ ¶ Los Zetas are the cartel equivalent of Hezbollah in Latin
.S. They have been characterized by open and serious dialogue — though one Cuban scholar did call Cuba the “Jurassic Park of socialism” as he invited a roomful of congressmen to visit the i sland. including one for Castro’s daughter. interests should not be held hostage to the narrow objectives of extremists in both countries. do research or teach in the U.¶ ¶ So why is this new development so significant to US border security? We must first consider the history and background of these groups.html
In recent years.1AC – Relations Advantage
Advantage 4 is Nuclear Terrorism Improved US Cuban relations solves key issues in Latin America.
Hezbollah ties mean it’s try or die to prevent cartel-related terrorism – plan solves nuclear terror and miscalc with Iran and Saudi Arabia Analysis Intelligence 11 (“Iron Triangle of Terror: Iran. Varela has been allowed into the U. “conspiring to smuggle over 90. they have. transparency and logic.
http://analysisintelligence. LASA decided to return to the U. It could also help Washington improve relations with its major Latin American allies and trading partners. leads to better disaster prevention and decreases the risk of drug-related terrorism Brenner and Stephens 2012 PHILIP BRENNER and SARAH STEPHENS 5/22/12 “Improved relations with Cuba would benefit U. Sarah Stephens is executive director of the Center for Democracy in the Americas.)
What would the ultimate border security nightmare look like? Might it involve drug cartels.
This is particularly disturbing as Iran
is suspected of pursuing a nuclear weapon while simultaneously funding Hezbollah close to the US border. Iran perceives its support of Hezbollah as a way to pressure the United States within its strategic sphere of influence in the Americas. Hezbollah has carefully trained its top operatives to form cells and set up shop in North and South America. Los Zetas. personnel. highly motivated commandos formerly with the Mexican military…[that] represent law enforcement’s worst nightmare come true”. Both leaders are staunchly anti-American. Click here to see the interactive timeline. the US authorities revealed that there was an attempt made by Iran to assassinate the Saudi ambassador on US soil.S. Profits from criminal activity in the region are estimated to be in the millions of dollars. However. In October 2011. The Zetas began as a group of paramilitary soldiers that were turned by the Gulf cartel. Others have indicated that Hezbollah functions as a sort of insurance policy for Iran in those regions. “has allowed Iran to mine uranium” and that Venezuela’s Margarita Island has eclipsed the infamous TBA as the principal safe haven and center of Hezbollah operations in the Americas”. the Zetas formed their own. Thus. It is quite surprising because Assistant Secretary of State Roger Noriega even made a statement saying that. The group is primarily located in the tri-border area Brazil.¶ Hezbollah has been involved in the drug trade in Latin America since the mid-1980s. operated by a former Lebanese citizen that became a Venezuelan and is now the second-ranking diplomatic official to Syria. to bomb the Israeli Embassy in Washington and the Saudi and Israeli Embassies in Argentina.¶ However. The Zetas are described as. a culutral attaché from Iran who is involved in various recruitment activities and frequently
Now back to the cartels. the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps Qods Force—globally and in Latin America. The other network is purportedly run by Hojjat al-Eslam Mohsen Rabbani. They are considered to be the ―most dangerous drug cartel‖ and the second most powerful in Mexico. Hezbollah is a very connected organization that has killed hundreds of Americans and fought a war with Israel.
were already infiltrating the southern border with Mexico as well as Canada.¶ If Hezbollah were a drug cartel or a separatist movement. the first improvised explosive device exploded in the U. Therefore. The
most important fact about Hezbollah is that it is a state sponsored terrorist organization. then why would they not cooperate on weapons? Hezbollah and other extremists may be willing to export their knowledge of IEDs to the cartels. Its primary functions are to launder money and receive profits from the drug trade. Argentina. discussed a side deal between the Quds Force. members of Congress were briefed on the growing influence of Hezbollah in the region. Hezbollah had an. After falling out with the cartel. One report indicated that the threat to the US border is already here.¶
“operatives In July.¶ ¶ What is the regional significance of Hezbollah working with the drug cartels? Let’s
consider Hezbollah’s cell activity in Latin America and examine its relationship with the cartels. It is highly significant that a former top US official has come out and
said that an attack by Hezbollah is likely. according to a law enforcement official…The plotters also
travels under false papers in Latin America. It looks like Los Zetas was intricately involved with Iran in this and other related plots.¶ Hezbollah’s influence in the region dates back several years. part of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. it would not be as much of a threat to the United States.America. ” I
believe there will be an attack on U. The fact that Iran is a state sponsor of Hezbollah means that the organization has the finances and the expertise to commit substantial acts of terrorism. installations or interests in the Americas as soon as Hizbullah operatives believe that they are capable of such an operation without implicating their Iranian sponsors in the crime‖. the same official that warned of an attack by Hezbollah. The two networks together make up the majority of Hezbollah’s activity in the Americas. The relationship between Hezbollah and Los Zetas appears to have already expanded beyond drugs. and Paraguay. ― Hezbollah clearly acts as a proxy for Iran — specifically. it appears that the salience of the issue has grown over the past few months:¶ The issue has increased in momentum over the past few months¶ US websites dedicated to border issues and even one of the Republican presidential candidates mentioned the “significant and imminent threat of the Iran-Latin America nexus”. Other information that we have found would corroborate the existence of a relationship between Hezbollah and Los Zetas. and it is reasonable to think that they would pursue activities that would undermine US interests. indicat es that Venezuela.S. “ highly trained. In July 2010. “estimated 460 operatives in the TBA by mid-2000” and this number has probably increased dramatically. and Los Zetas to funnel tons of opium from the Middle East to Mexico”.¶ Some sources have said that the strengthening relationship between Iran and Venezuela has increased Hezbollah’s influence in the region. Roger Noreiga. there major concerns that if Iran obtains a nuclear weapon it might share the weapon with Hezbollah.-Mexico border town of Ciudad Juarez”. He currently resides on Margarita Island and runs money laundering operations for the group. There are two major Hezbollah networks operating in the
Americas under the direction of the Iranian Quds Force. This problem
seems to have been severely overlooked by the mainstream media. Hezbollah’s escalating presence in the Western Hemisphere can be understood only in the context of its patron Iran’s pursuit of its strategic objectives‖. The state can fund the terrorist group and still exercise plausible deniability in the event of a major attack. Los Zetas is considered to be one of the best trained and violent groups in Latin America. Over the past 25 years. “The alleged plot also included plans to pay the cartel. The first is the Nassereddine network.
. The organization has participated in a number of hideous acts including the 2011 Tamaulipas massacre that killed some 200 civilians. Why is the link between Hezbollah and Los Zetas so important? The main concern is that if Hezbollah and Los Zetas are cooperating on drugs (which they are to the tune of hundreds of millions).
and even the use of nuclear weapons in response by the country attacked in the first place. that while the debris resulting from a nuclear explosion would be ―spread over a wide area in tiny fragments.¶ It may require a considerable amount of imagination to depict an especially plausible situation where an act of nuclear terrorism could lead to such a massive inter-state nuclear war. the so-called n+1 problem. perhaps Iran if its program continues. and if for some reason Moscow denied any responsibility for nuclear laxity? The correct attribution of that nuclear material to a particular country might not be a case of science fiction given the observation by Michael May et al. the materials used and. authorities in Washington would be left with a very short list consisting of North Korea. Even the worst terrorism that the twenty-first century might bring would fade into insignificance alongside considerations of what a general nuclear war would have wrought in the Cold War period. and especially an act of nuclear terrorism. They would seem far too responsible to be involved in supporting that sort of terrorist behavior that could just as easily threaten them as well. most important … some indication of where the nuclear material came from. A contrast can be drawn here with the global catastrophe that would come from a massive nuclear exchange between two or more of the sovereign states that possess these weapons in significant numbers. identifiable and collectable. Indeed. It is just possible that some sort of terrorist attack. For example. and a wealth of information can be obtained from its analysis: the efficiency of the explosion. Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington. and American officials refused to believe that a terrorist group was fully responsible (or responsible at all) suspicion would shift immediately to state possessors. Issue 7. not least because they seem unlikely to be fingered as the most obvious state sponsors or encouragers of terrorist groups. For example. July. today’s and tomorrow’s terrorist groups might assume the place allotted during the early Cold War years to new state possessors of
small nuclear arsenals who were seen as raising the risks of a catalytic nuclear war between the superpowers started by third parties. in the event of a terrorist nuclear attack on the United States. could precipitate a chain of events leading to a massive exchange of nuclear weapons between two or more of the states that possess them. But at what stage would Russia and China be definitely ruled out in this high stakes game of nuclear Cluedo?¶
. do suggest themselves.”41¶ Alternatively.¶ But these two
nuclear worlds—a non-state actor nuclear attack and a catastrophic interstate nuclear exchange—are not necessarily separable. And it must be admitted that as long as the major nuclear weapons states have hundreds and even thousands of nuclear weapons at their disposal. however remote. Ruling out Western ally countries like the United Kingdom and France. there are reasons to wonder whether nuclear terrorism should ever be regarded as belonging in the category of truly existential threats. its radioactivity makes it detectable. and probably Israel and India as
might the United States react if it was thought or discovered that the fissile material used in the act of nuclear terrorism had come from Russian stocks.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism. would not necessarily represent the worst of the nuclear worlds imaginable. there is always the possibility of a truly awful nuclear exchange taking place precipitated entirely by state possessors themselves. it might well be wondered just how Russia and/or China could plausibly be brought into the picture. Volume 33. and possibly Pakistan.¶ Some possibilities. Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)¶
A terrorist nuclear attack.Nuclear terror escalates to global nuclear war
Robert Ayson. if the act of nuclear terrorism came as a complete surprise. These risks were considered in the late 1950s and early 1960s as concerns grew about nuclear proliferation. 2010 (“After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects. In this context.