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Zimbabwe NSS Report

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STRATEGY FOR ZIMBABWE
WITH RESPECT TO
ACTIVITIES IMPLEMENTED JOINTLY (AIJ)
AND THE
CLEAN DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM (CDM)
October 2000
PROGRAM OF NATIONAL CDM/JI STRATEGY STUDIES
NSS PROGRAM
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6
1. NSS Background ..................................................................................................................................... 6
2. Zimbabwe’s Energy Base....................................................................................................................... 7
3. Zimbabwe’s Potential Participation in the CDM................................................................................ 8
4. Mitigation................................................................................................................................................. 9
5. Zimbabwe’s Offer to OECD Countries on the GHG Market ............................................................ 9
6. Selection Criteria for CDM Projects.................................................................................................... 10
7. Risk Identification................................................................................................................................. 12
8. Decisions For Zimbabwe...................................................................................................................... 12
9. Conclusions............................................................................................................................................ 13
1. THE UNFCCC, KYOTO PROTOCOL AND AIJ 14
1.1 Introduction........................................................................................................................................... 14
1.2 Earlier Climate Change Studies/Activities in Zimbabwe............................................................... 15
1.3 UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol....................................................................................................... 16
1.4 Conclusions............................................................................................................................................ 17
2. DOMESTIC PREREQUISITES 18
2.1 Introduction........................................................................................................................................... 18
2.2 Proposed Institutional Arrangements................................................................................................ 18
2.3 Some Crucial Elements in CDM.......................................................................................................... 21
3. DEMAND FOR GHG OFFSETS AND MATCHMAKING POTENTIAL
BETWEEN DEMAND AND ZIMBABWEAN SUPPLY 23
3.1 GHG Emissions in OECD Countries, Target Emissions, and Expected Trading Prices.............. 23
3.2 International Demand for and Zimbabwean Supply of GHG Reductions ................................... 23
3.3 Market Mechanisms ............................................................................................................................. 26
3.4 Architecture of an Emission Market................................................................................................... 28
3.5 How to Position Zimbabwe in the Offset Market............................................................................. 31
4. SECTORIAL GHG EMISSIONS, INVENTORY, DEVELOPMENT,
AND OFFSET POTENTIAL 39
4.1 Introduction........................................................................................................................................... 39
4.2 Macro-Economic Analyses and Major Assumptions ....................................................................... 39
4.3 Zimbabwe Energy Supply................................................................................................................... 41
4.4 Zimbabwe GHG Emissions Inventory............................................................................................... 47
4.5 Emissions Projections ........................................................................................................................... 51
4.6 GHG Abatement Potentials ................................................................................................................. 57
4.7 Other Possible GHG Abatement Projects .......................................................................................... 60
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5. GHG MITIGATION IN ZIMBABWE: OPTIONS AND BENEFITS 61
5.1 Introduction........................................................................................................................................... 61
5.2 Significant Identified Mitigation Options.......................................................................................... 61
5.3 The Value of the Potential GHG Market for Zimbabwe.................................................................. 61
5.4 Projects Pipeline .................................................................................................................................... 62
5.5 Project Selection Criteria...................................................................................................................... 62
5.6 Secondary Project Benefits................................................................................................................... 64
5.7 Regulatory Mitigation Options ........................................................................................................... 64
5.8 Conclusions............................................................................................................................................ 66
6. CONCLUSIONS 67
APPENDIX: GHG PROJECTS – UNIFORM REPORTING FORMAT
FOR AIJ UNDER THE PILOT PHASE 68
PROJECT 1  OSBORNE DAM.............................................................................................................. 69
PROJECT 2  TOBACCO CURING....................................................................................................... 75
PROJECT 3  SEWAGE GAS POWER.................................................................................................. 81
PROJECT 4  BOILER EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT ..................................................................... 86
PROJECT 5  COAL BED METHANE.................................................................................................. 90
REFERENCES 96
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FIGURES
Figure 0.1 The National Energy Balance in Pie Chart Form.................................................................. 7
Figure 2.1 Proposed Institutional Arrangements for CDM Project Screening and Approval ........ 19
Figure 3.1 Hypothetical Situation in the GHG Market ........................................................................ 27
Figure 3.2 Zimbabwe's Offer at a Given Price P1 ................................................................................. 28
Figure 3.1 Prototype Carbon Fund Suggested by the World Bank.................................................... 30
Figure 3.4 Forces Determining Attractiveness of the Offset Market for Zimbabwe ........................ 31
Figure 3.5 Profile of Demand of OECD Countries................................................................................ 33
Figure 3.6 Matchmaking Prerequisites for DCs to Get into Successful Trade .................................. 34
Figure 4.1 The National Energy Balance in Pie Chart Form................................................................ 41
Figure 4.2 Sectoral Distribution of GHG Emissions from Commercial Fuels................................... 47
Figure 4.3 Contribution of Individual GHGs to Total Emissions in Zimbabwe............................... 48
TABLES
Table 0.1 Emission Projection by Sector ................................................................................................. 8
Table 0.2 General Benefits Accruing to Zimbabwe............................................................................. 11
Table 3.1 Estimates of the Size of the CDM Market in 2010 .............................................................. 24
Table 4.1 GDP Growth............................................................................................................................ 40
Table 4.2 The Energy Resource Base in Zimbabwe ............................................................................ 41
Table 4.3 ZESA Plants, Interconnectors, and Latest Approved Expansion Plan............................ 43
Table 4.4 Extent of Household Electrification Zimbabwe by Province (1992) ................................ 44
Table 4.5 Summary of GHG Emissions in Zimbabwe, 1994.............................................................. 46
Table 4.6 Coal Demand Schedule.......................................................................................................... 52
Table 4.7 1994 Emissions and Projected GHG Emissions from Electricity Generation and
Coal Supply............................................................................................................................. 52
Table 4.8 Present and Expected Capacities of the Cement Plants .................................................... 53
Table 4.9 Emission Projections for the Industry, Commercial and Residential Sector................... 54
Table 4.10 Projection of GHG Emissions from the Transport Sector Based on GDP
Growth Rate ............................................................................................................................ 55
Table 4.11 GHG Eission Pojections from Lnd-use Cange and Frestry............................................... 55
Table 4.12 GHG Emissions Projections from Agriculture.................................................................... 55
Table 4.13 Summary of Emission Projections by Source...................................................................... 56
Table 4.14 Projects Pipeline...................................................................................................................... 59
Table 4.15 Mitigation Options Analysed for the Supply Side............................................................. 60
Table 5.1 National Economic Development Priorities and Strategic Options for
Zimbabwe................................................................................................................................ 62
Table 5.2 National Environmental Priorities for Zimbabwe.............................................................. 63
Table 5.3 Sectoral Environmental Priorities......................................................................................... 63
Table 5.4 General Benefits Accruing to Zimbabwe............................................................................. 64
Table 5.5 Specific Project Benefits ......................................................................................................... 64
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The Zimbabwe government would like to thank the government of Switzerland for financing the
National Strategy Study and the World Bank as well as Swiss companies (Ernst Basler and Partners
and Carbotech) for providing technical assistance to the project.
Furthermore, the Zimbabwe government would also like to thank the following consultants for
providing the technical support as well as carrying out the research work.
External Consultants
Dr J Fuessler Ernst Basler and Partners
Dr U Brodmann Ernst Basler and Partners
Dr J Janssen Ernst Basler and Partners
Dr T Buerki Carbotech
Dr W Kaegi University of Sankt Gallen, Switzerland
Zimbabwe Consultants
Dr T Ngara Project Coordinator
Ms M Sangarwe and Dr R S Maya GHG Offsets Potential (Energy Sector)
Mr C Dube and Mr S Matema GHG Offset Potential (Industry, Residential and Transport
Sectors)
Dr C Matarira and D Kwesha Land-use Change and Forestry and Agriculture Sectors
Mr R Chizema and Mr D Corri Markets and Financial Mechanism
Mrs D Kayo and Dr M Muyambo Options for Zimbabwe
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ACRONYMS
AEEI Autonomous Energy Efficiency Improvement
AIJ Activities Implemented Jointly
CDM Clean Development Mechanism
CER Certified Emission Reduction
COP I Conference of the Parties I
CSO Central Statistics Office
CZI Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries
DCs Developing Countries
EIA Environment Impact Assessment
EIT Economies in Transition
EPA Environment Protection Agency
ERU Emission Reduction Units
ESMAP Energy Sector Management Assistance Programme
EST Environmentally Sound Technology
FC Forestry Commission
FINESSE Financing Energy Use in Small Scale Enterprises
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GEF Global Environmental Facility
GHG Greenhouse Gas
GTZ German Technical Co-operation
ICs Industrialised Countries
IET International Emission Trading
IMF International Monetary Fund
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IRT Industrial, Residential and Transport (Sector)
LPG Liquid Petroleum Gas
MAC Marginal Abatement Cost
MMET Ministry of Mines, Environment and Tourism
NAFTA North Atlantic Free Trade Association
NRSE New and Renewable Sources of Energy
NSS National Strategic Study
OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
PV Photo voltaic
SADC Southern Africa Development Community
SAPP Southern Africa Power Pool
SCEE Southern Centre for Energy and Environment
UNDP United Nations Development Programme
UNEP United Nations Environmental Programme
UNITR United Nations Institute for Training and Research
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
URF Uniform Reporting Format
WWF World Wide Fund for Nature
ZIC Zimbabwe Investment Centre
ZIMASCO Zimbabwe Mining And Smelting Company
ZIMPREST Zimbabwe Programme for Economic and Social Transformation
ZPC Zimbabwe Power Corporation
ZESA Zimbabwe Electricity Supply Authority
CONVERSION FACTOR FROM CARBON (C) TO CARBON DIOXIDE (CO2)
To calculate the conversion factor to CO2, total carbon oxidised should be multiplied by the
molecular weight ratio of CO2 to C (44/12) to find the total carbon dioxide.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1. NSS Background
1.1 Rationale for NSS
In Zimbabwe most of the national aggregated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are associated
with CO2 that originates from coal combustion and land-use change and forestry. Most of the
CO2 emissions can be linked to the energy, industry, transportation, agriculture, residential, and
public sectors. A 25-percent decrease of CO2 emissions is possible through technological up-
grading. The national target for Zimbabwe would therefore be to substantially reduce future CO2
emissions (relative to GDP) with a process of economic growth based on policies and measures
that increase energy efficiency and, in particular, that introduce new production and energy-
saving technologies.
To facilitate this, the World Bank, through the National Strategy Study (NSS), assists countries in
exploring opportunities and benefits that may be accessed through the Clean Development
Mechanism (CDM) framework. It is, therefore, the aim of the NSS to provide Zimbabwean
authorities with information that allows them to better understand opportunities presented by
potential international markets for GHG offsets and to develop options for their potential use. In
order to achieve this objective, the study has quantified the potential for Certified Emission
Reductions (CERs) in some selected sectors of the Zimbabwean economy.
1.2 Activities Implemented Jointly (AIJ)
At the First Conference of the Parties (COP I) the pilot phase of the Activities Implemented Jointly
(AIJ) was adopted. This was designed to provide a learning curve for the Joint Implementation
(JI) (Article 4.2 of the UNFCCC). The concept of JI introduces the idea of international cooperation
among all parties of the UNFCCC with the goal of stabilising atmospheric greenhouse gas
concentration. Cooperation is perceived as a cost-effective means for encouraging Annex I
countries to meet their respective UNFCCC commitments when mitigation activities abroad offset
domestic greenhouse gas emissions. Such an arrangement allows any Annex I party to exploit
climate-change- mitigation cost differentials between countries. The amount of emission reduc-
tion units that can be credited depends on the amount of greenhouse gas emissions avoided by
implementing projects abroad. AIJ provides a similar transaction, with the major difference being
that credits do not yet accrue to the investor country. It should be noted that AIJ projects can also
be undertaken between Annex I countries.
Zimbabwe signed and ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) in 1992 and the Convention entered into force in March 1994. By being a party to the
Convention Zimbabwe is entitled to participate in the AIJ framework.
Since the initiation of the AIJ pilot phase in 1995, Africa has not gained much experience, as a
result of which Africa’s contribution to the JI learning curve is negligible. The reason for this is
that very few AIJ projects – only four – have been implemented in Africa. One of the four Zim-
babwe projects is the Manyuchi Mini-Hydro Scheme, an AIJ project between Zimbabwe and the
E-7 electricity utilities.
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1.3 The Clean Development Mechanism
In the Kyoto Protocol, which was signed in December 1997, the parties to the UNFCCC agreed on
legally binding GHG limitation and reduction commitments. A new concept, the Clean Develop-
ment Mechanism (CDM), is set forth in Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol. The CDM allows an
Annex I party to invest in a host country (non-Annex I) and get Certified Emission Reductions
(CER) to meet their obligations in the Kyoto Protocol while the host country gets cash as well as
sustainable development benefits associated with the CDM projects. Though the Kyoto Protocol
has not yet been ratified, it is strategic for parties to take an early lead in the CDM process by
implementing CDM projects.
Given this background, there are a number of pertinent questions to ask. At this stage in the
negotiations toward the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol where does Zimbabwe stand? What
advantages does Zimbabwe have if it enters into the CDM markets early? Does Zimbabwe have a
pipeline of projects that could attract potential investors to enter into CDM arrangements? Does
Zimbabwe have, or is it ready to create, a suitable domestic infrastructure to accommodate the
different players in the CDM process in a cost-effective way? This study attempts to lay the
groundwork for Zimbabwe to address some of these questions.
2. Zimbabwe’s Energy Base
Zimbabwe has a large conventional fuel resource base − coal with total reserves of 10.6 billion
tonnes, of which half a billion are proven, and hydroelectric power with a total potential of 13 300
MW mainly on the Zambezi River shared system.
Figure 0.1 The National Energy Balance in Pie Chart Form
Coal makes up about 42% of the primary energy supply in the country and about 70% of domes-
tic power generation, with the remaining internal power generation being hydro based. Petro-
leum, which amounts to about 8% of primary supply, is imported exclusively in the form of
finished distillates. Firewood is the second dominant fuel, making up about 40% of primary
supply. It constitutes a major source of energy, especially for the rural population and low-
income urban group. Although statistics to support this do not exist, it is possible that the use of
wood as a fuel results in significant deforestation. Clearing land for agricultural purposes is the
biggest cause of deforestation, and 1994 estimates put such clearing at over 18 000 hectares per
annum [Zimbabwe Initial National Communication, 1998].
Primary Energy Supply, 1996
100%= 359PJ
Coal
42%
Oil derivatives
8%
Electricity
Imports
6%
Woodfuels
42%
Other Fuels
2%
Final Energy Consumption, 1996
100%= 283PJ
Coal
15%
Oil derivatives
18%
Electricity
12%
Woodfuels
49%
Other Fuels
6%
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Forms of renewable energy such as solar gas and biogas have received notable attention, but this
has been mainly at the research level or under diffusion activities funded on a non-commercial
basis. While solar water heaters are becoming more common in high-income urban areas, the cost
relative to alternative and more traditional heating appliances still puts them beyond the means
of the majority of the people. Energy balance pie charts are shown in Figure 0.1. It should be
noted that some of the coal is used as raw coal and in electricity and coke production. This
explains the disparity between the percentages for the primary energy supply and final energy
consumption.
3. Zimbabwe’s Potential Participation in the CDM
In the coming years economic growth and rising residential demand will require an increased
supply of all the above-mentioned fuels. There are significant expansion plans for coal-based
power generation in the short to medium term (i.e., until 2004). However, expansion of large-
scale hydro generation on the Zambezi River is planned for 2010 and beyond. This will require
close co-ordination with neighbouring countries. The Zimbabwe Initial National Communication
shows that Zimbabwe has a big potential for participation in the CDM process due to its growing
greenhouse gas emissions, particularly in the energy sector. As a consequence, there is a potential
for Zimbabwe to undertake CDM projects in those identified sectors where emissions are likely to
grow.
Table 0.1 summarises emission projections from all major sources in the country up to the year
2020. Emissions in 1994 are based on Zimbabwe’s Initial National Communication. Emissions in
later years have been extrapolated using the GDP growth rate of 4.6% up to 2010 and 3.8%
thereafter.
Table 0.1 Emission Projection by Sector (Gg/CO2 Eq.)
GDP Rate 4.6 % GDP Rate 3.8 %
1994 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
All Energy 19 076.68 24 990.45 31 288.04 39 172.63 47 203.02 56 879.64
Fugitive Fuel
Emissions
324.32 424.86 531.92 665.97 802.49 967.00
Industrial
Processes
4 732.20 6 199.18 7 761.38 9 717.24 11 709.27 14 109.68
Agriculture 13 388.96 17 539.54 21 959.50 27 493.30 33 129.42 39 920.96
Land Use Change &
Forestry
18 831.74 24 669.58 30 886.31 38 669.66 46 596.94 56 149.31
Waste 616.06 807.00 1 010.41 1 265.00 1 524.36 1 836.81
TOTAL Emissions 56 969.96 74 630.61 93 437.56 116 983.80 140 965.50 169 863.40
NB: The 1994 emissions are based on the Initial National Communication. It is assumed that the GDP growth rate is proportional to
the emissions. The GDP growth rate is taken to be 4.6% up to 2010 after which it declines to 3.8% (see Section 4.2.2).
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4. Mitigation
This National Strategy Study (NSS) considers a pipeline of five projects selected from a longer list
of twenty-one mitigation options previously presented in the Initial National Communication.
These five mitigation options are drawn from the energy, industry, agriculture, and residential
sectors. The project titles are as follows:
• Use of coal-bed methane for ammonia generation
• Investment in a mini hydro-project to supply electric power to rural and peri-urban
consumers
• Increasing boiler efficiency in industry
• Improving energy efficiency in tobacco curing
• Generation of power from gas produced at the sewage plant
It should be noted that these projects are examples that have a high replication potential. How-
ever, the full reduction potential in Zimbabwe at various cost levels could not be determined.
An Example of a Mitigation Project: Improving the Technology of Tobacco Curing
Background: The tobacco is cured on the farms and causes significant CO2 emissions. Very simple
furnaces are employed for the curing process; and wood is being used as a fuel. The fuelwood is
harvested largely and increasingly from common property resources at a level well above
regeneration levels. Thus the wood used for curing is not CO2-neutral.
Project: Introduction of “slot furnaces” would reduce wood fuel requirements by about 55%.
Given an annual baseline CO2 emission of approximately 100 000 t CO2 per annum, annual
emission reductions of approximately 50 000 t CO2 could be achieved. Assuming a project
lifetime of 11 years (2002-2012), total savings could amount to 550 000 t CO2.
Benefits: Global emission reductions as well as social, environmental, and economic benefits for
the local population are also associated with the project.
5. Zimbabwe’s Offer to OECD Countries on the GHG Market
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries are responsible
for about 70% of the global GHG emissions (1990 emissions of about 3.3 Gg CO2 equivalent). This
amount is expected to increase by between 1.3 Gg and 2.8 Gg CO2 equivalent between 2008 and
2012 (total for 5 years).
Mitigation of these GHG emissions can be attained through emissions reduction or sink en-
hancement. Emissions can be reduced by countries with commitments either domestically or
externally by making use of the flexibility mechanisms (ET, JI, CDM). With this in mind, many
OECD countries are increasingly becoming concerned about the impact of their GHG reduction
costs on the economies. Quite a number of these countries are expected to meet a considerable
share of their commitments abroad. The trade with GHG emissions reduction is attractive due to
varying marginal costs of GHG mitigation in OECD countries and developing countries (DCs).
The price of CO2 reductions under the CDM is predicted to be approximately US $20/ton of
CO2. As demonstrated by the project pipeline, Zimbabwe can attain emission reductions at costs
below US $20 per ton of CO2. However, not being an Annex I country, Zimbabwe has no legally
binding commitment to reduce GHG emissions.
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5.1 Mechanisms of the GHG Market
Zimbabwe’s emission trading with OECD countries follows the rules of the CDM (i.e., Article 12
of the Kyoto Protocol). Through the CDM, DCs will benefit from a technology transfer to increase
energy efficiency in the industrial sectors. At the same time the
CDM stipulates a sustainable development goal which is attained through the protection of the
local environment and the promotion of health benefits and improved infrastructure develop-
ment.
The varying emission-reduction costs between ICs and DCs can be attributed largely to the
varying efficiencies in energy use and the wide disparity in developments in infrastructure and
technology. To promote markets and reduce risks the World Bank has recently launched a
Prototype Carbon Fund (PCF) that foresees that the World Bank act as a broker between the
investor and host country. The PCF intends to develop market know-how for the CDM and
demonstrate its feasibility.
5.2 How to Position Zimbabwe in the Offset Market
Zimbabwe’s situation in the Certified Emission Reduction (CER) market can be equated to that of
a company selling a new product in a new and unknown market. Zimbabwe’s chances in this
market are accordingly influenced by market behaviour. A market analysis to determine Zim-
babwe’s matchmaking advantages shows that the target focus for Zimbabwe in the carbon offsets
market would be Annex 1 countries with which Zimbabwe presently enjoys favourable trading
relations.
5.3 Market Constraints on Zimbabwe
The comparative disadvantages that would impede Zimbabwe from operating in an optimal
manner in the market are obstacles that originate in Zimbabwe such as transaction costs, Zim-
babwe’s risk structure, weak institutional structure, and human resource capacity.
5.4 Recommendations for Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe must fulfil the following conditions to be able to participate successfully in the future
GHG market:
• establish an office where the CDM is promoted
• clarify controlling, verification, and monitoring procedures in Zimbabwe
• introduce clear rules and regulations on how to proceed in implementing GHG reduction
projects
• introduce formats, including baseline and additionality calculations and other project infor-
mation demands, that allow project developers to offer or propose high quality projects.
If Zimbabwe wants to be an early participant in the CDM process, then the country has to make a
strategic decision based on the initial prices of the CERs  i.e., if, in Zimbabwe’s opinion, the
prices for the CERs that are first traded are too low, then the policy could be to “bank” the CERs
and sell when market prices are right.
6. Selection Criteria for CDM Projects
In addition to watching the GHG market behaviour, Zimbabwe has to set out project criteria that
maximise the benefits from the CDM. Some of the criteria follow.
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The project should be compatible with and supportive of national environmental and develop-
ment priorities and strategies and contribute to cost-effectiveness in
achieving global benefits.
The project should be officially accepted, approved, or endorsed as a CDM project. It should
bring about real, measurable, long-term environmental benefits that are related to the mitigation
of climate change and that would not have occurred in the absence of such an activity.
Financing the CDM must be in addition to the financial obligations of the donor country within
the framework of the financial mechanism of the UNFCCC (i.e., the Global Environmental
Facility) and in addition to current official development assistance (ODA).
The principle of additionality will be applied to ensure that projects have real environmental
long-term benefits related to the mitigation of climate change which would not occur without the
project. Risks and barriers to project implementation such as prohibitive capital costs must be
clearly identified and demonstrated. Extra or additional financing will be over and above the
already existing arrangements and obligations that occur under business-as-usual conditions.
CDM projects must also satisfy broad, national environmental priorities and strategies. Besides
causing a reduction in GHG emissions, the projects should also provide secondary benefits for the
host country and the local communities. The host country’s (secondary) benefits are shown in
Table 0.2.
Table 0.2 General Benefits Accruing to Zimbabwe
Benefits Description
Technology Transfer Encourages private sector diffusion of innovative technology that can
help meet Zimbabwe‘s development priorities
Investments Expands investments in technologies and projects that reduce GHG
emissions while contributing to overall host country development
priorities
Environment Reduces SO2 emissions resulting in reduced acid rain effects Reduces
pollution of air, water, and soil from coal combustion products
Reduces deforestation and soil erosion from reduced forest clearing
Economic Encourage capacity building and skills transfer, cost saving from
facilities and production processes, and provision of new energy
services
Social benefits Lead to improvements in general quality of life; cottage industries;
improved health
Sustainable
Development
Encourages additional private sector investment and dissemination of
technologies and practices that contribute to sustainable development
Learning Effects Participants get an opportunity to learn about the market and
influence the direction of the development of the CDM beyond the
initial stages
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7. Risk Identification
Zimbabwe should identify and assure potential investors that financial risks are identified and
reduced in order to improve the chances of project success and reduce the cost of financing.
Potential investors are by nature risk averse and need to be convinced that all financial obliga-
tions will be met. In the interest of furthering the spirit of mutual trust between the potential
investor and host country, project proposals should identify the actual major risks and should
have a clear project structure that best allows GHG emissions to be mitigated. Both Zimbabwe
and the potential investor should address the risk factor in some of the areas listed below. While
some of these risks are well known to international investors, others are new and specific to the
CDM. Not all of these risks can be insured.
Host Country Investment Climate:
• There must be a consideration of the enforceability of agreements in general and of regula-
tory risk and some adverse political risk.
• The potential currency devaluation risk is a factor for consideration.
• Currency convertibility risk also needs to be considered.
• A market risk exists that sales fail to meet projections.
• The adequacy of local infrastructure must be taken into consideration.
Technology and Project Completion:
• Technology should be proven.
• Site and/or facility availability should be assured by enforceable agreements.
• Assets of the project need to be covered by insurance against accidental loss due to fire,
flood, and other insurable causes.
Operations and Management:
• Raw materials and inputs need to be available at budgeted qualities.
• Skilled labour availability can be enhanced by implementing a training programme.
Environmental:
• Systems for verification and certification of the avoided GHG emissions must be clear and
enforceable.
8. Decisions For Zimbabwe
The present study puts forward the potential benefits for Zimbabwe. These include sustainable
development, environmental, and social benefits. In order to profit from these benefits, Zim-
babwe has to formulate an appropriate policy for participation in the CDM process. This policy
should bring with it or promote the development of a domestic infrastructure that facilitates the
implementation of CDM projects with minimum transaction costs. Such an infrastructure should
ensure that the approval process is not loaded down with institutions that are not absolutely
essential.
Furthermore, Zimbabwe should also ensure that climate-change-mitigation response options are
consistent with local environmental agendas--for example, that the importation of advanced
technologies contributes toward technology transfer and increased industrial competitiveness in
domestic and international markets. Increased use of domestic non-fossil fuel energy sources
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improves fuel supply security at the national level while decentralised renewable energy use
contributes to cost-effective rural electrification as well as important health benefits.
9. Conclusions
The CDM could become an important policy tool in Zimbabwe for addressing environmental and
developmental challenges through the use of projects financed, inter alia, by foreign investment.
Both the government and Zimbabwean local population will gain from these projects, not only
through local environmental benefits at no extra cost, but also because reductions in greenhouse
emissions will be realised at a lower cost to society. Moreover, the CDM provides an opportunity
for Annex I countries to reduce their costs of compliance with their quantified emission limitation
and reduction objectives.
Zimbabwe can decide that now is the opportune time for the country to seize this opportunity
and put policies and institutions in place that facilitate the speedy implementation of CDM
projects. Such a strategic decision will put Zimbabwe in an early lead in the CDM process and
allow it to reap the associated benefits despite the fact that there are still many areas in the CDM
process that need to be defined. On the other hand, Zimbabwe might want to wait until all the
CDM rules and regulations are finalised before it participates. There are risks and advantages to
both sides depending upon the outcome of the negotiations.
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1. THE UNFCCC, KYOTO PROTOCOL
AND AIJ
1.1 Introduction
At the First Conference of the Parties (COP I) the pilot phase of the Activities Implemented Jointly
(AIJ) was adopted. It was designed to provide a learning curve for the Joint Implementation (JI)
(Article 4.2 of the UNFCCC). The JI concept introduces the idea of international cooperation
among all parties of the UNFCCC in order to stabilise atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration.
Such cooperation is perceived as a cost-effective means for Annex I countries to meet their
respective UNFCCC commitments when mitigation activities abroad offset domestic greenhouse
gas emissions.
The parties to the UNFCCC agreed on legally binding GHG limitation and reduction commit-
ments in the Kyoto Protocol, which was signed in December 1997. A new concept, the Clean
Development Mechanism (CDM), is set forth in Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol. The CDM allows
an Annex I party to invest in a host country (non-Annex I) so as to get Certified Emission Reduc-
tions (CER) to meet their obligations in the Kyoto Protocol while the host country gets cash as
well as sustainable development benefits associated with the CDM projects. Though the Kyoto
Protocol has not yet been ratified, it is strategic for parties to take an early lead in the CDM
process by implementing CDM projects.
Even though the Kyoto Protocol has not yet entered into force, the CDM could become an
interesting instrument for Zimbabwe’s future environmental investments. The CDM may not
only lead to modernisation of the existing capital stock for energy production and consumption,
but could also generate a financial surplus for Zimbabwe in the form of additional financial flows
based on the CER opportunities.
Through economic development Zimbabwe has shown a steady increase in GHG emissions
measured by a variety of criteria, e.g., cumulative emissions, emissions per capita, emissions per
unit of GDP, etc. It is therefore important to estimate the economically feasible reduction potential
of different sectors and calculate abatement costs for different types of projects such as fuel
switching, energy savings, renewable energy sources, etc. Given this background, it is important
to note the following points.
• In Zimbabwe, most of the national aggregated GHG emissions are dominated by CO2 that
originates from the combustion of coal, land-use change, and forestry.
• Annual emissions of CO2 from coal production and use are very high. It is therefore evident
that the country has a substantial abatement potential. Decreasing CO2 emissions by about
25% is possible through technological upgrading. The national target for Zimbabwe would
therefore be to reduce future CO2 emissions relative to GDP substantially during the process
of economic growth through appropriate policies and measures and, in particular, by intro-
ducing new production and energy-saving technologies.
Zimbabwe would like to benefit from Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol by participating in project
activities that fall under the framework of the CDM. This would pave the way for real, measur-
able, long-term benefits related to the mitigation of climate change.
Zimbabwe NSS Report
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1.2 Earlier Climate Change Studies/Activities in Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe was involved in climate change studies and activities prior to the current Swiss-
sponsored National Strategy Study (NSS). Some of these studies and activities are described
below.
United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR) Project
In 1992 and 1993 UNEP, through its RISO Centre, conducted studies on various abatement
options through a local non-governmental organisation, the Southern Centre for Energy and
Environment (UNEP, 1993). This study identified mitigation options in industry and agriculture.
United States Country Studies
In 1995/96 the United States Country Studies Programme was carried out in Zimbabwe under
the auspices of the Ministry of Mines, Environment, and Tourism. These studies contributed
toward capacity building associated with the preparation of GHG inventories and vulnerability
and adaptation assessments.
UNDP Capacity Building Project
In 1996 Zimbabwe participated in a two-year, regional, four-country Capacity Building Project
with the assistance of UNDP (GEF). The main objective of this project was to enable the four
participating countries--Mali, Ghana, Kenya, and Zimbabwe--to meet their obligations under the
UNFCCC. The method of project execution was through national and provincial workshops
throughout the country as well as focused studies on mitigation options, particularly in the
energy sector. The greenhouse gas inventory was also revisited using 1994 as a baseline year.
Capacity building achieved through this project had a positive impact on the preparation of the
Initial National Communication. The project also attempted to examine climate change policies in
the four participating countries.
Climate Change in Southern Africa (Climate Research Unit, United Kingdom)
In 1996 the WWF International commissioned a regional report on the climate change impacts in
the Southern African Development Community (SADC) (Hulme, 1996). This report was co-
ordinated by the Climate Research Unit (United Kingdom). The report covered a wide range of
topics, i.e., the regional impact of climate change by the year 2050–e.g., changes in natural
vegetation, surface water availability, agriculture, disease vectors, biological diversity and
adaptation strategies, and development policies.
Initial National Communication
In 1997 Zimbabwe started working on its Initial National Communication under the UNEP/GEF
Enabling Activity Programme. This project was also executed by the Climate Change Office.
Under the general framework of the Zimbabwe Initial National Communication Project green-
house gas inventories were improved by expanded areas of sources of emissions and higher-
quality data. This exercise was facilitated by the presence of a reasonable number of previous
studies. The final product--the Initial National Communication--was submitted to the UNFCCC
Secretariat in May 1998. The results of all these studies and activities formed a good basis for the
National Strategy Study.
Zimbabwe NSS Report
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1.3 UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol
Since the Rio Earth Summit, the topic of foreign investment and technology transfer has been a
subject of contention between North and South. The transfer of environmentally benign technolo-
gies between the North and South provides an excellent opportunity for developing countries to
develop with minimum greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere. The slow progress in
international climate technology transfer has been due largely to the lack of incentives to private-
sector actors in the North. The CDM under the Kyoto Protocol is expected to provide these much
needed incentives.
The CDM may be defined as the process of jointly implementing emissions reduction/sequestra-
tion project(s) in a developing country (host) with funds from a developed country (investor). The
usual rationale for this is that, since it does not matter in global biophysical terms where green-
house gas emissions are reduced, it is better to invest in reduction where abatement is cheapest.
The CDM has the potential to bring international investments to developing countries. This may
have double benefits for climate change mitigation as well as local economic and environmental
benefits.
Before the Kyoto Protocol the debate on flexible mechanisms centred on Emissions Trading and
Joint Implementation (JI). Emissions trading allows Annex I parties to obtain commitments by
trading permits among themselves. JI allows Annex I parties to offset commitments by investing
in projects in foreign countries that mitigate climate change. The AIJ pilot phase facilitated Annex
I parties to invest in climate-change-mitigation projects in non-Annex I parties, but with no
credits accruing to them. These mechanisms, particularly JI/AIJ, were viewed with suspicion by
some parties because they were seen to be strategies for Annex I countries to avoid taking
meaningful measures at home.
This may possibly explain the fact that by mid 1998 there were only three AIJ projects in Africa–
the Dutch forest protection project in Uganda, the Norwegian fuelwood project in Burkina Faso,
and an E7 hydro-electric project in Zimbabwe (Forsyth, 1999). Another reason may be that there
are no sufficient incentives for Annex I parties to invest in Africa.
Many AIJ projects have focused on the sequestration of carbon dioxide by forests rather than on
the transfer of badly needed environmentally sound technologies (EST) to developing countries.
Reforestation, or forest conservation projects, are often adopted because they are relatively
cheaper than the complex investment in industry and also because they allow investors to benefit
from additional sustainable forestry business. Scientific justifications adopted for forestry-based
projects have, however, been challenged for being too simplistic and unduly optimistic. Such
projects also do not add to industrial technology transfer as demanded by the South.
AIJ and the CDM offer opportunities for North-South co-operation in mitigating climate change.
Although these mechanisms are controversial, there is a need to be involved in AIJ and CDM
investment for climate change mitigation by transferring badly needed technology to developing
countries. Some investment schemes for climate change mitigation may in fact be driven by
developed countries’ concerns and markets rather than the priorities of the people in countries
receiving investment.
Integrating foreign investment and climate change policy therefore is not simply about increasing
opportunities for private investors, but rather which combination of market and regulatory forces
will allow firms the greatest freedom to achieve profits while fulfilling global goals of climate
change mitigation.
Zimbabwe NSS Report
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1.4 Conclusions
Zimbabwe should therefore weigh the pros and cons of actively participating in CDM mecha-
nisms. Being a party to the UNFCCC, it is in the long-term interests of Zimbabwe to get on board
and take measures that will help it meet its obligations in the Convention. Whatever misgivings
may exist about these mechanisms, the consensus is that they are outweighed by the potential
benefits--technology transfer, climate change mitigation, and socio-economic and environmental
benefits. This is one of the avenues Zimbabwe should take to acquire EST. That said, it is reason-
able for Zimbabwe to seize transfer-of-technology opportunities presented by the Kyoto mecha-
nisms (UNDP, Issues and Options, 1998).
Zimbabwe NSS Report
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2. DOMESTIC PREREQUISITES
2.1 Introduction
Participation in the pilot phase of the AIJ and the Clean Development Mechanism makes it
possible for Annex I and Non-Annex I Parties to jointly achieve the twin objectives of global
mitigation of climate change and sustainable development for developing countries. Under this
partnership Annex I Parties receive credits for the implementation of projects in developing
countries. As a party to the UNFCCC, Zimbabwe has an interest in attaining the above-men-
tioned objectives by participating in either the AIJ or CDM or both.
Participating in the AIJ/CDM is expected to lead to emissions reduction or avoidance of GHG
emissions. By participating in these mechanisms, Zimbabwe will be able to attract additional
investment and income for some of its national development programmes in poverty alleviation,
rural infrastructure, education, health, and other socio-economic development objectives.
So far Zimbabwe has only one approved AIJ project, a mini hydro project on the Manyuchi Dam
in south eastern Zimbabwe (Forsyth, 1999). The investor for this project is the E7, a consortium of
electricity utilities from OECD countries. Approval for this project took two to three years partly
because there were no streamlined domestic procedures for AIJ projects in Zimbabwe.
In order to realise maximum benefits from AIJ programmes, the Ministry of Mines, Environment,
and Tourism was officially given the task of acting as the government clearing house for AIJ
projects in July 1997. This move demonstrated Zimbabwe’s political will to participate in the AIJ
programme. It is expected that this same ministry will continue to play the same role for CDM
projects.
The non-Annex I Parties in turn get technology transfers through investments in CDM projects,
profits (producers rent) that can be shared with the public sector as well as sustainable develop-
ment and environmental benefits associated with CDM projects. It is therefore advisable for
Zimbabwe to put in place a domestic institutional framework that facilitates the country’s
participation in the process and derives the aforesaid benefits. Such a framework should show a
clear project approval process with no red tape--i.e., the role of each institution in the process
should be clear and non-duplicative. In addition to this, several aspects of the risk factors associ-
ated with the project implementation should be addressed to demonstrate to potential investors
that it is worthwhile to invest in Zimbabwe. In the next section the domestic institutional ar-
rangements that Zimbabwe would need for the CDM are described.
2.2 Proposed Institutional Arrangements
The proposed operational structure for a CDM regime in Zimbabwe could consist of the follow-
ing actors:
• Clean Development Mechanism Office (CDMO)
• Ministry of Finance
• Zimbabwe Investment Centre (ZIC)
• Ministry of Mines, Environment and Tourism (MMET)
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• Climate Change Office
• Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries (CZI)
The operational structure of these institutions is illustrated in Figure 2.1.
Figure 2.1 Proposed Institutional Arrangements for CDM Project Screening and Approval
2.2.1 Clean Development Mechanism Office [Proposed]
The Clean Development Mechanism Office (CDMO) should be an inter-ministerial (Ministry of
Finance and Ministry of Mines, Environment, and Tourism (MMET)) independent organ dedi-
cated to CDM projects. It is expected to deal with all institutions that are relevant in the project
cycle as well as providing technical support to on-going projects. It is to be the project-imple-
menting arm of both ministries and will be expected to coordinate the national CDM policy and
associated activities. The CDMO will be manned by people from both ministries with financial
support from the government. Other functions of the CDMO will include ensuring transfer of
technology, foreign currency transfer, and micro-economic benefits and defining baselines and
the principle of additionality.
2.2.2 Ministry of Finance [Existing]
This ministry coordinates all foreign investment coming into the country. It will be one of the two
co-ministries responsible for the political process, coordination of the policy, and implementation
of CDM projects. It is essential that there is a good relationship between this ministry and MMET
since they both approve CDM projects (see organogram). The Zimbabwe Investing Centre falls
under this ministry. It therefore follows that in terms of administrative functions, ZIC should
inform the Ministry about the projects coming into the country.
Clean
Development
Mechanism
Office
Ministry of Mines,
Environment and
Tourism
Climate Change
Office
Ministry of
Finance
Zimbabwe Invest-
ment Centre
Discussions Discussions
Outcome NO
Implement
CZI (Advisor)
YES
Local Partner Investor
Zimbabwe NSS Report
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2.2.3 Zimbabwe Investment Centre (ZIC) [Existing]
The ZIC is one of the most important actors in implementing projects in Zimbabwe. All new
foreign investment into Zimbabwe has to be registered and approved by the Investment Centre
when applying for an Investment Certificate.
Registration or approval by the ZIC may take from 48 hours to 10 working days depending on the
nature of the project. This is in accordance with the Investment Centre Act, which stipulates that
within 45 days after receiving an application, the Investment Committee shall reach a decision
and notify the applicant.
The Investment Committee consists of the executive (chairperson), representatives from various
government ministries, and three private sector board members whose role is to represent and
spearhead the interests of the private sector.
To streamline the project approval process, the ZIC registers projects that meet the following
criteria.
• Projects are in the preferred sectors, i.e., manufacturing, including agro-processing and
assembling activities, and mining and tourism development. Projects in these sectors can be
100%-owned by foreign investors, but joint ventures with local investors are encouraged.
• The project meets all the other criteria above including satisfying the Environment Manage-
ment Act and the immigration requirements.
2.2.4 Ministry of Mines, Environment, and Tourism (MMET) [Existing]
This ministry coordinates all environmental programmes and activities in the country. When the
CDM process is in operation, its additional responsibilities will be to jointly coordinate national
CDM policy formulation with the Ministry of Finance. MMET is expected to liase with all other
line ministries and government departments that have input into the CDM process.
2.2.5 Climate Change Office [Existing]
The Climate Change Office is a technical arm of the Ministry of Mines, Environment, and Tour-
ism (MMET). It provides the link with the CDMO, UNFCCC Secretariat and the Conference of the
Parties and its subsidiary bodies.
2.2.6 Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries (CZI) [Existing]
The CZI is an umbrella organisation for all Zimbabwe Industries. It will play an important role in
the sense that it will be the advisor on the project implementation partnership between the
investor and local partner. It is expected that after an initial agreement between the potential
investors and local company, the CZI is notified on the nature of cooperation. The CZI will also
be expected to disseminate relevant information on AIJ/CDM to Zimbabwe industries at large
and organise relevant seminars.
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2.3 Some Crucial Elements in CDM
The following section provides some key information on crucial elements in CDM mechanisms.
2.3.1 Sustainable Development Criteria
Although Zimbabwe is positively disposed toward participating in a CDM process, it needs to
determine the criteria for sustainable development on socio-economic issues, poverty alleviation,
and cultural and community values.
Sustainable development has only been broadly defined. This broad definition will have to be
fine-tuned to address national objectives and concerns. Still under debate is whether developing
countries like Zimbabwe should set the national criteria or this should be done jointly with some
international authority. The merit of having joint responsibility is that it ensures international
standards or indicators since it may be tempting for host countries to exaggerate the efficacy of
their CDM projects.
2.3.2 Risk Management
There is a close connection between finance, risk management, and project viability. It is therefore
vital that AIJ/CDM projects are structured in a way that minimise risks. In project financing, it is
a normal practice to introduce guarantees and insurance
mechanisms. It is therefore important for Zimbabwe to create an environment that convinces the
potential investor that there is minimum project risk in the country. If need be, Zimbabwe could
pool its projects together so as to enhance better risk management.
The following constitute possible areas of risk:
• political risks: the rules of law may change with a change of government
• technology risks: for example, system failure or the unsuitability of technology in Zimbabwean
conditions
• financial or economic risks: for example, competitiveness or investment profitability are
impacted by interest rates, exchange rate movements, and other fiscal considerations
• Zimbabwe is not in a position to guarantee potential investors against risks that are associ-
ated with trends in international markets. However, project financiers can mitigate losses or
major project failure through conventional insurance. This aspect is discussed in greater
detail in Chapter 3.
2.3.3 Portfolio of Projects
A useful basis for an effective AIJ/CDM process is the existence of a ranked and judiciously
selected pipeline of projects based on nationally acceptable criteria. This portfolio of projects
should pass the screening test of project implementation in Zimbabwe. A brief description
(investment cost and benefits) of each project on the basis of a uniform reporting format should
be provided in the pipeline. In this study details of the project pipeline are given in Chapter 4.
2.3.4 Project Baselines
Under Article 12.5c of the Kyoto Protocol, CDM projects are required to demonstrate a reduction
in emissions additional to any that would occur in the absence of certified project activity. It is
therefore imperative for CDM projects to have baselines against which the reduction of emissions
will be gauged and certification eventually conferred. However, the question of project baselines
is part of the ongoing climate change debate. Hopefully it will be finalised in COP6.
Zimbabwe NSS Report
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2.3.5 Some Remarks
It should be noted that there are still many issues that are yet to be defined in the CDM process.
For example, issues of certification, verification, validation, and evaluation are not government
functions but are an international responsibility since CERs are an international commodity. This
study only mentions some areas of risk. It would take a detailed project with a specific detailed
study to go into greater depth about risk management strategies.
Coal as a source of energy is strategic for Zimbabwe. Any CDM project in the coal sector will
focus on a reduction in future expansion rather than in reduction in production. The latter would
imply laying off coal miners, resulting in social and possibly political unrest.
Some issues such as the National Sustainable Development Criteria evolve out of political pro-
cesses and decisions between the two ministries shown in the organogram. Such issues cannot be
dealt with in a study of this nature.
2.3.6 Outlook for Zimbabwe
Although much work remains to be done in the clarification of how the CDM could function in
the way it is defined in Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol, Zimbabwe will find itself in an advanta-
geous position if it effects these institutional arrangements now in preparation for a fully func-
tioning CDM process. Zimbabwe’s institutional domestic prerequisites should ensure that the
CDM projects are characterised by the elements discussed in section 2.3 of this chapter. Ideally,
Zimbabwe should create an infrastructure that accommodates national/political priorities and
policies that enable the country to achieve the twin goals of mitigating climate change as well as
attaining sustainable development under the Kyoto Protocol.
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3. DEMAND FOR GHG OFFSETS
AND MATCHMAKING POTEN-
TIAL BETWEEN DEMAND AND
ZIMBABWEAN SUPPLY
3.1 GHG Emissions in OECD Countries, Target Emissions, and Expected
Trading Prices
The OECD countries are responsible for about 70% of the global GHG emissions. In 1990, the
OECD countries emitted about 3.388 Gg CO2. The forecasts for the development of the GHG
emissions in the first commitment period 2008/12 show that an excess of GHG emissions com-
pared to the Kyoto commitments of approximately 1.3 - 2.8 Gg CO2 equivalent is expected.
Price estimates for CERs depend on demand factors involving Annex B countries, the ratification
of the Kyoto Protocol, ceilings on trade, the design of final regulations, domestic reductions of
OECD countries including policies used to implement domestic reductions, inclusion or non-
inclusion of sinks (leading to a bigger or smaller offer and thus a lower or higher price), and the
CER (as well as ET offer) in the market. Most price estimates come to a price range of around US
$20 per ton of CO2 equivalent for CERs including sinks and US $35 excluding sinks. As a maxi-
mum emission trading volume for Zimbabwe we can thus take all CDM projects with a marginal
cost lower than US $20 including transaction, risk, certification, validation, and marketing costs
and associated fees.
3.2 International Demand for and Zimbabwean Supply of GHG Reductions
3.2.1 OECD Countries: the Demand Side
Expected Demand
The projected demand for GHG offsets depends on GHG growth projections and the reduction
commitments in accordance with the Kyoto Protocol. Once the Protocol enters into force, the
emission targets will become legally binding. Because emissions are expected to continue to rise
under the business-as-usual scenario and the emissions targets will only become binding in the
first commitment period, the real reductions are measured against their projected business-as-
usual scenario over the commitment period. This also explains to a considerable extent the
differences between the projections made for this market by different models.
Variations of a factor of 2 can be observed for the different estimates for the total emission
requirements of Annex 1 countries and a factor of 5 for the CDM market, which also depends on
outcomes of decisions such as inclusion or non-inclusion of sinks and other factors.
Zimbabwe NSS Report
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Table 3.1 Estimates of the Size of the CDM Market in 2010
Size of the CDM
market (MtC)
Total emissions reductions required of
Annex I countries (MtC)
Contribution of the
CDM
EPPA
Haites
G-Cubed
GREEN
SGM
Vrolijk
Zhang
723
265-575
495
397
454
67-141
132-358
1312
1000
1102
1298
1053
(not available)
621
55%
27-58%
45%
31%
43%
(not available)
21-58%
The international price expected for CO2 reductions depends again on the demand estimates as
well as the marginal cost estimates, which again vary considerably according to sources. While
Cicero estimates, e.g., marginal abatement costs of US $128 for the US, the MIT model (Ellerman)
estimates them at US $279 per ton carbon. Similar discrepancies exist for Europe, where estimates
range from US $58/ton (Cicero) to US $604/ton (Abare). Resulting CDM prices again depend on
quantities of hot air, inclusion of sinks, supplementary costs, sellers agreements, etc.
The real trade market depends not only on maximum potential trading volumes but also on real
reduction costs for GHG emissions and trading prices. Experience with emission trading market
prognosis shows that considerable caution should be taken regarding expected price and volume
outcome.
Examples are the cap-and-trade allowance system for controlling sulphur dioxide emissions in
the US, where the allowance to emit one ton of SO2 was valued by the EPA at US $1,500 in 1990,
but allowances traded at US $150/ton in 1995 and dropped to US $66/ton in 1996 due mainly to
poor estimates that regulators could make on the cost of controlling emissions due to asymmetric
information between the regulator and the economic agent responsible for the change. A similar
example can be found in the RECLAIM (Regional Clean Air Incentives Market) of the South
Coast Air Quality Management District in the US, where expected trading prices for NOx were
assumed to be between US $4 and 5 per pound and real auctioned allowance prices traded
between US $0.2 and 0.7 on an average. Growth assumptions as well as the economic reduction
potentials of measures to increase energy efficiency and use renewable energies can thus be easily
estimated inaccurately, leading to a much smaller than expected trading market at lower trading
prices.
Factors Influencing Demand
The reduction needs of the different countries depend to a considerable extent on the projected
growth of GHG emissions, which relies on various factors such as GDP growth, economic
structure, energy and carbon intensity, etc. These factors in themselves are projections and their
correlation to GHG emissions is estimated, thus leading to various uncertainties over the real
growth of GHG emissions in the future.
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The major factors that will affect future trading volumes and prices are thus:
− There is limited availability of baseline/underlying projects and capacity to develop them.
− The Kyoto Protocol has not yet entered into force. Should it happen that the required
amount of ratifications cannot be attained, there will be a low demand of CERs.
− Inclusion or non-inclusion of sinks in CDM has an effect. If sinks are eligible, the supply of
CERs increases considerably and trading prices will be lower;
− Ceilings to trading especially advocated by the EU exert effects.
− CDM surcharges which wedge a price between sellers and buyers have an influence.
− Cartelization of supply is another factor to consider.
− Inefficient supply will cause trade to grow slowly. Supply can be inefficient due to high
transaction costs (e.g., due to additionality criteria) and information costs. Domestic
reduction potentials in Annex B countries including policies chosen are also a factor.
− Limited availability of baseline/underlying projects and capacity to develop them also
have an effect.
The question of how sink projects are eligible under the CDM is not yet defined. This question is
important especially to DCs. If sinks do not become eligible under the CDM, the amount of CERs
would be reduced considerably and vice versa.
3.2.2 Recent Developments in the OECD Affecting the Demand for GHG Offsets
Many OECD countries are developing energy and environmental policies. Many of these coun-
tries have strengthened their respective policies. All these policies indicate that a good number of
OECD countries are willing to reduce GHG emissions in the near future and they show how the
economies and consequently the individual companies
could act. These policies have a strong influence on the GHG trading volume. But it must be
clearly postulated that the energy and climate policies of the OECD countries are far from being
the only influencing factor on the attitude of companies in ICs.
In the last 2 - 3 years some important studies have examined the domestic potential to increase
the energy efficiency and the use of renewable energies in OECD countries. The results show that
the goal of creating more jobs is consistent with an improvement of energy efficiency and thus a
reduction of GHG emissions. A reduction of energy consumption by 30% in 2020 compared to
1990 seems feasible.
The pressure on an efficient use of energy and the use of renewable energies leads to the devel-
opment of new and better energy technologies as well as to improved marketing of the latter. All
these trends show that at least the European OECD countries tend to fulfil a considerable share of
the Kyoto commitment domestically through an orientation toward sustainable development.
Finally, energy programmes currently being realised show that even voluntary approaches lead
to considerable results. Enterprises can, e.g., be motivated to increase energy efficiency consider-
ably.
All these factors result in a reduced demand for trade with CO2 and other GHG emission reduc-
tions in the market and consequently in a reduced price for emission reductions.
3.2.3 Incentive for Trading
However, the trade with GHG emissions reduction makes sense due to varying marginal costs of
GHG mitigation in OECD countries and DCs. Under such a scenario a domestic abatement option
Zimbabwe NSS Report
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in an OECD country with hypothetical costs of US $30/t of carbon (corresponding to US $8/ton
of CO2) could result in an abatement option in a DC where the investment undertaken in a
project could be at a cost of US $15/ton of carbon--i.e., much lower due to the disparity in
marginal abatement costs. The surplus revenue (US $15/ton of carbon minus the transaction and
risk costs) could therefore potentially accrue to both buyer and seller.
Here the question of sharing the benefit from trade with ERU/CER arises. The ERU/CER market
is similar to a homogenous good in a competitive market with many suppliers. Zimbabwe as well
as other DCs will clearly be price-takers in this respect. The potential gain of a DC arises from its
producer surplus, which depends in the end on its individual marginal cost curve in generating
GHG offsets in relation to the price paid for GHG offsets.
3.2.4 Zimbabwe’s GHG Offer
Zimbabwe’s emission figures are published in various publications. The GHG emissions of
Zimbabwe are projected to increase by 38% from 1994 to 2010. Zimbabwe is party to the Conven-
tion (UNFCCC), but not an Annex I party; in the Kyoto Protocol no commitment to reduce GHG
emissions is required for non-Annex I Parties. By adopting the Convention Zimbabwe has
accepted some commitments but no legally binding commitments to reduce GHG emissions.
3.3 Market Mechanisms
3.3.1. General Remarks
The Kyoto Protocol defines three flexibility mechanisms. Since Zimbabwe is not an Annex I party,
emission trading with an OECD country must be defined according to article 12 of the Kyoto
Protocol (CDM). But for the market as a whole, all mechanisms for mitigating GHG emissions are
important.
3.3.2. Gains from Trade
The system of GHG trading (JI, CDM and IET) is based on two key facts: GHG emissions do not
stop at national boundaries. And the effect on climate change of reduction or avoidance of these
emissions is not connected with the source of the emissions. GHG reduction measures have
increasing marginal costs after implementing so-called no regret projects. In general, the marginal
abatement costs in DCs and EITs tend to be lower than in ICs. Thus investments in the protection
of the climate can be done more efficiently in DCs.
Through the CDM, DCs will benefit from technology transfer in the energy and industrial sectors
through energy efficiency technologies and fuel switching, while at the same time protecting local
environment and promoting health concerns and infrastructure development. In addition to this,
if sinks are included, DCs may profit from reduced deforestation, watershed protection, and
more sustainable land-use patterns. Such environmentally conscious investments will to a greater
extent spearhead sustainable resource exploitation and economic growth – thereby providing a
leverage for checking poverty threats to future generations.
It is common premise that the different emission reduction costs between ICs and DCs stem
largely from the varied efficiencies of energy use and wide disparity in infrastructure and
technological development. An emissions market may evolve on the basis of marginal abatement
cost differentials among countries obliged to and committed to emissions reduction with such
activities being credited under consideration of transaction, marketing, risk, and other costs.
Zimbabwe NSS Report
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Figure 3.1 shows a hypothetical situation in the future GHG market. The demand curve of all
Annex B countries represents the market volume of demanded GHG reductions. The supply
curve represents the offer of GHG emissions for trade through JI/CDM. The supply contains the
marginal costs as well as the transaction costs, certification, verification and other costs and
eventual fees.
Figure 3.1 Hypothetical Situation in the GHG Market

Demand of the
OECDcountries
Q1:
Quantity traded
in world
Supply by the
world
Price at market
Quantity
P1:
Price
in
the
world
The price P1 in Figure 3.1 is the price at a defined time and is the point of intersection of demand
and supply curves. Zimbabwe is a small seller of tradable GHG reductions and thus a price taker.
From the point of view of Zimbabwe, the price is fixed. The quantity traded by Zimbabwe is the
intersection of the (horizontal) price curve and the country’s marginal cost curve. (See Figure 3.2.)
The quantity Q2 traded by Zimbabwe is a (small) part of the quantity Q1 traded in the whole
world market.
Involvement of DCs and EITs in a global GHG trading arrangement will reduce the costs of
emissions reductions. Estimates by the OECD confirm that gains from co-operation among OECD
countries are relatively smaller in view of the limited marginal abatement cost differentials.
GHG trade is not completely beneficial to all parties and stakeholders in an economy: local and
social issues have to be considered as well. If, e.g., coal would be substituted largely by other
fuels, consequently resulting in carbon offsets, losers (e.g., coal miners) would be affected, leading
to a limited expansion of activities.
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Figure 3.2 Zimbabwe's Offer at a Given Price P1
Q2:
Quantity
by Zimbabwe
price
Quantity
Supply curve
P1 given by world
3.4 Architecture of an Emission Market
3.4.1 Basic Conditions
Basically, the offset market is determined by the UNFCCC, the Kyoto Protocol, and the different
decisions of the Conference of Parties (COP). Because Zimbabwe is not an Annex I country, it can
trade under the CDM only.
To date many problems in implementing the CDM are not yet solved: the setting of emission
baselines, the determination whether or not project activities are additional to what would have
occurred without a project, and the monitoring of the results will be the key parameters.
Besides the parameters given by the Kyoto Protocol additional criteria must be fulfilled for a
successful implementation of a project. They must also address
− local needs,
− poverty eradication (job creation, providing sources of income),
− transfer and development of environmentally friendly technologies,
− improvement of institutional capacity (training, capacity building),
− contribution to sustainable development (biodiversity, water and air quality, tourism),
− national economic impact,
− compatibility with other environmental goals.
The institutional architecture of a GHG offset market must therefore meet the demand to consider
the mentioned environmental, social, and economic criteria.
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3.4.2 Scenarios of Market Structure
With projects in the AIJ pilot phase the transaction costs of bilateral project-by-project procedures
have proved to run up to 30% of the total project costs. If the transaction costs reduce the benefit
substantially there will not be enough incentives in future to realise CDM projects that need
significant resources for validation, monitoring, verification, and certification. Therefore simple
market rules and a simple market structure have to be implemented in order to decrease transac-
tion costs and to minimise the risk of project failure.
In the absence of direct incentives for private sector involvement CDM will not take off. It is also
apparent that risk and minimisation of transaction costs is a major determinant of the return on
CDM projects. For effective implementation of CDM projects, the following will be necessary:
i. government commitment
ii. predictable, flexible regulatory framework
iii. hospitable investment climate
iv. sound financial system adequately catering for risk management
v. government promotion i.e. public awareness and putting up CDM focal points or
project appraisal centres
Free Market Scenario
Annex I parties prefer market determination of prices. They would therefore purchase the least-
cost emissions reduction available in DCs: a competitive and economic efficient market could
arise. A cartelisation in order to sustain prices above marginal costs is unlikely due to homogene-
ity of the good and numerous suppliers. The emission trade will be dominated by large sellers
and buyers which influence the price. According to various studies the USA might be a large
buyer whereas Russia and Ukraine (in general EIT) are liable to be big sellers. The small countries
involved - Zimbabwe included - would be price-takers. The potential benefit for Zimbabwe is the
revenue minus production costs in the country including transaction costs, control costs and the
extra charge due to the estimate of the risk premium for investments in Zimbabwe. Potentially
Zimbabwe will have additional costs (or in other terms must offer GHG reductions cheaper) due
basically to the following reasons:
− in Zimbabwe rather small projects will be realised,
− the country offers a comparatively unfavourable investment climate,
− investment risks are estimated to be high,
− the potential to increase projects is limited.
Prototype Carbon Fund (PCF) Scenario
The World Bank has established a Prototype Carbon Fund (PCF). The PCF is a relatively small
funding vehicle (ca. US $150 million) that intermediates between buyers and sellers. The objec-
tives of the PCF are to facilitate market development and reduce risks. The major risk or cost-
reducing benefits arising from the fund are:
− risk management through a project portfolio approach,
− decreased sovereign risks,
− registered emission reduction units (improved tradability),
− quality assurance system (validation, verification),
− lower transaction costs,
Zimbabwe NSS Report
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− improved price transparency.
With the PCF the World Bank has created a ”learning-by-doing” opportunity to implement
emission reduction projects by companies and governments according to Joint Implementation
and the CDM. The objectives of the PCF established by the World Bank are.
− High quality emission reductions registered by the UNFCCC,
− Know-how creation and transfer to the ICs, EITs, and DC, and
− Public-private-partnership synergies.
The PCF operates as follows. ICs and companies invest money and technology through the PCF
in EITs (JI) and DCs (CDM). The investors receive a pro rata share of the emission reductions,
verified and certified in accordance with the Kyoto Protocol and transferred as agreed with the
respective EITs and DCs.
Figure 3.3 Prototype Carbon Fund Suggested by the World Bank
3.4.3 Conclusions
For GHG reductions the market does not yet exist and the modalities are not yet defined, the
market price of CERs or ERUs is to date only forecast by models. It is expected to be in the order
of magnitude of US $35/ton of CO2.
There is a great number of proposals for the construction of offset market structures. It seems to
be important that some key functions of trade must be strictly under international control to meet
the above-mentioned criteria. Other functions like brokerage, monitoring, verification, and
sponsoring may be realised by private entities.
The following items must be under international control (e.g. COP):
− certification of project activities as eligible for the CDM (including social, environmental
and economic issues),
− international tracking system to provide accurate information about national credits,
Zimbabwe NSS Report
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− additionality and baseline setting,
− certification of emission reduction units.
National governments should meet the following tasks:
− estimate value of national participation,
− identify risks involved in participation,
− create domestic infrastructure,
− create sectoral or national emissions trajectories.
3.5 How to Position Zimbabwe in the Offset Market
An idea of developing Zimbabwe’s situation in the CER market is to consider Zimbabwe as a
company that sells a new product in a new and unknown market. The opportunities for Zim-
babwe in this market are therefore considered from the viewpoint of marketing: Zimbabwe sells
CO2 reductions to ICs. The country competes with other countries: ICs (Annex I countries), EITs,
and other DCs. Thus, matchmaking advantages need to be found.
3.5.1 Forces Determining the Attractiveness for Zimbabwe in the Offset Market
Threat of Intense Rivalry
There is the probability of intense competition in the market.
Figure 3.4 Forces Determining Attractiveness of the Offset Market for Zimbabwe
Supplier Supplier Supplier Supplier Power Power Power Power
Zimbabwean
PrivateSector
and NGO
Buyer Buyer Buyer Buyer Power Power Power Power
USA
EU
OECD
Potential Potential Potential Potential Entrants Entrants Entrants Entrants
China
Poor African
countries
Substitutes Substitutes Substitutes Substitutes
Rockefeller Fund
International IEC
Global EEI
WWF, CI, IUCN
PhilippineNPA
Petroleum IECA
Competition Competition Competition Competition
South Africa
African Countries
EITs
Asia & S. America
Zimbabwe NSS Report
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Threat of New Entrants
As the trading system matures, many new entrants will enter the market. These may include
countries like China, India, and "poorer" African states. The competitiveness of the latter will be
increased when land use and forestry projects are eligible under the CDM. Whether and how this
type of project will be eligible is unclear to date.
Threat of Substitute Products
There is a real threat of substitute products in this area. The following is a list of products cur-
rently available that could substitute or supplement offset trading.
– The Rockefeller Foundation has co-financed renewable energy and conservation projects
with the GEF in Jamaica, Brazil, India, and Morocco and is supporting development of the
Global Photo-voltaic Market Transformation Project.
– The International Institute for Energy Conservation has worked on climate change mitiga-
tion projects.
– The Global Energy Efficiency Initiative has signed a formal agreement with the World
Bank.
– The World Bank and WWF-US produced "A Conservation Assessment of the Terrestrial
Eco-regions of Latin America and the Caribbean."
– WWF, CI, IUCN, and the World Bank produced a proposal for the Critical Ecosystems
Protection Fund (CEPF).
– In the Philippines the NGOs for Integrated Protected Areas (NIPA), a legally incorporated,
non-profit consortium of 12 national NGOs, received a GEF grant to co-ordinate, supervise,
and fund local groups to undertake management and community development activities in
10 priority protected areas in the country.
– The International Petroleum Industry Environmental Conservation Association (IPIECA)
and the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) intend to collaborate with the World
Bank with regard to environmental issues in Africa.
– The Forest Market Transformation Initiative (FMTI) is supported by the MacArthur Foun-
dation, the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation, the Rocky Mountain Institute, and the
Church and Dwight Company.
While these products currently complement CDM, they can reduce the market of low-cost carbon
trading, as measures are already taken inside other programs without trading the resulting
carbon offset benefits.
The market structure for Zimbabwe can be sketched as follows under the assumption of direct
trade, i.e., no PCF existing.
Demand Side
It is theoretically possible that energy projects could buy offsets from an agricultural project in
DCs like Zimbabwe (e.g., a power corporation wishing to expand in an Annex I country offsets its
emissions by investing in a forest project in Zimbabwe providing a sink). The transaction costs of
such trade are assumed to be rather high as is the “aversion” of a power corporation to trade with
a partner from an unknown branch. The promoters of the energy project will probably not have
expertise in forestry, thus increasing the cost. It is much more likely for companies to trade with
other companies from the same holding, then from the same branch, and least frequently with
unfamiliar companies. This does not confine the search to a strict “one to one mapping” of the
buying sector and selling sector. The scope includes all sectors that have synergy such as supply
chain synergy. Thus wood or paper mills sponsoring forestry projects have less transaction costs
Zimbabwe NSS Report
33
and risks attached than unrelated sector trades. Company representatives declared these prefer-
ences in a recent survey.
Figure 3.5 Profile of Demand of OECD Countries
Supply Side
Existing trade links may also influence the readiness to trade. It is more likely that OECD coun-
tries go into trade with countries where strong trading links exist. While it may be possible for
Zimbabwe to enter into a CER trade with any country, it is more likely that countries with a
traditional association with Zimbabwe will be interested (e.g., it is much more likely for British or
German companies to trade with Zimbabwe than, say, American companies).
With regard to the traded product it is obvious that trading starts with CDM projects that have
low reduction costs and only in a late and costly stage will CDM projects at high reduction costs
be traded. Thus the target market will focus mainly on those Annex I countries with an existing
strong trade link with Zimbabwe and on trade with CDM projects that have low reduction costs.
It is in view of this that the target focus for Zimbabwe in the carbon offsets markets would be
limited to those Annex I countries with which the country presently enjoys favourable trading
links in projects that have low CO2 abatement costs.
The basic requirement Zimbabwe has to meet is to install a CDM office that facilitates the creation
and transfer of CO2 reductions. This institution must guarantee that an overall CO2 reduction is
reached by singular measures. This means that one project must not reduce CO2 emissions to the
debit of another field (leakage). It makes no sense if, e.g., a railway company substitutes Diesel
locomotives for electric ones, thus reducing the CO2 emissions of the locomotives but increasing
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Zimbabwe NSS Report
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the CO2 emissions of coal-fired power plants (especially when they have a poor efficiency) which
produce the necessary electricity. In this case the overall balance of CO2 emissions may easily be
negative.
Figure 3.6 Matchmaking Prerequisites for DCs to Get into Successful Trade
Therefore the certifying institution must assure that the way to fulfil the Kyoto goal, namely an
overall and real reduction of CO2 emissions is assisted--i.e., it must evaluate all projects and
secure that no leakage exist and that the additionality of certified projects is guaranteed. With
such an institution transaction and information costs are also reduced.
3.5.2 Market Constraints and Obstacle Originating in Zimbabwe
Basically the operations of the market would hinge on a commitment by OECD to binding
emission reductions, encouraging them to search for the least cost emission reduction options. In
this market, DCs will have to face some important handicaps that undermine their positions.
Comparative disadvantages or constraints of Zimbabwe to operate in an optimal manner in this
market are elaborated in the sections below.
Transaction Costs and Risks
The transaction costs are an extra charge to the production costs of CO2 offsets. Together with the
risk premium the production cost is determined. Zimbabwe will operate on the market if this
total production cost is lower than the international CO2 price. It is thereby assumed that Zim-
babwe is price taker.
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Strength oftrading links
Annex 1
countries
with strong
trading links
Annex 1
countries with
weak trading
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Countries
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Zimbabwe NSS Report
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The transaction costs depend largely on legal and administrative requirements and search costs
for finding optimal project partners. Independent verification also contains a certain risk for
enterprises which can be translated into a transaction cost. For investment projects opportunity
costs are also an important element as additional studies require not only more money but also
more time, which leads to lost opportunities for profits (profits of alternative investment projects
are not realised).
An important further cost factor is the risk structure of Zimbabwe. It is determined by factors
such as the policy-regime, the form of government/political system, the level of uncertainty or
the reliability of data and information, country stability, and the economic situation. The rating of
countries by financial institutions show that risks to investors in Zimbabwe are estimated to be
high. It must be assumed that the rating of Zimbabwe concerning its position in the CO2 offset
market is regarded to be at the same level. Therefore the extra charge to the production cost in
Zimbabwe will be rather high.
An additional component to the relative disadvantage of Zimbabwe compared to more devel-
oped countries lies in reduced information on the past as well as less experience with new
technologies, making forecasts less reliable. This makes the definition of the projected emissions
trajectory more complex and insecure. It can result in less or more certified emission reductions
than projected ones.
Weak Institutional and Human-Resource Capacity
The implementation of new technologies as well as their operation and maintenance requires
considerable manpower and competence in order to assure a real and lasting reduction of CO2
emissions. The presence or absence of such a capacity determines whether a country is regarded
to be an attractive, reliable, and dependable partner.
Lack of Support from the Other Players in the Market
The formation of a DC seller cartel is highly improbable, for such an organisation is highly
demanding and requires the fulfilment of a lot of conditions. At the same time the various
countries have strongly diverging interests and prerequisites. The large number of potential
sellers is the biggest obstacle to such a cartel, which would anyway have doubtful economic
usefulness.
Political Field
The political conditions in a country influence the willingness of foreigners to invest in those
countries. Therefore the opportunity of the political system in a country and its stability decide
whether investments in projects and in technology transfer are made as a basis for CO2 reduc-
tions.
3.5.3 Obstacles to Zimbabwe Originating in OECD Countries
Tax Policies
CO2 taxes increase the pressure to reduce CO2 emissions. Being an economic instrument they
foster steps toward reducing offset costs, thus favouring CO2 trading as long as the domestic
structure chosen permits such trading. Before international trading between companies can take
place a national system which solves the allocation problem must be designed and come into
Zimbabwe NSS Report
36
force. Regulations in contrast prescribe, e.g., maximum emission rates and would thus not permit
trading (e.g., maximum fuel consumption levels of car fleets).
Regulation
In OECD countries a strong trend toward a stricter environmentally orientated legislation has
formed: laws on energy (efficiency), CO2 reduction, and other topics that eventually result in
decreasing the use of fossil energy. Again the impact of such regulations on trading volumes and
prices depends on the national system established and the instruments used for reducing GHG.
Indications show that a relation between domestic and traded share to fulfil the Kyoto commit-
ments could be fixed.
Technical Innovation
The trend to improve the efficiency of energy use leads to new technologies, more sensitive
behaviour, and optimum operation of installations that end in reduced consumption. The instal-
lation of new computer generations, new screen technologies, new boiler technologies, but also
new efficient production technologies and improved processes in the industry will get a boost at
the beginning of the next decade. Also the transport sector is in considerable motion, especially
concerning higher fuel efficiency of produced cars, e.g., the EU sets out a strategy to reach an
average CO2 emissions objective of new cars of 120 grams CO2 per kilometre by 2005 (2010 at the
latest), with the fleet average in 1995 being 186 g/km. The European Commission recently
decided to conclude an environmental agreement with the European Automobile Manufacturers
Association (ACEA) which will make the major contribution to achieving this objective. Similar
agreements were made, e.g., by Switzerland, which will be complemented most probably by
instruments such as car labelling or vehicle taxes based on fuel consumption, thus reducing CO2
domestically and reducing the demand for trading carbon.
Higher Energy Prices
It is obvious that high energy prices are favourable to realising energy efficiency measures and
therefore to CO2 abatement. In Europe a big share of electricity is produced by burning fossil
fuels. Increased prices of fossil fuels therefore lead to a rise in electricity prices. On the other
hand, the liberalisation of the electricity market decreases the prices remarkably--above all in the
industry, as this can be seen, e.g., in Norway and Germany after electricity markets have been
deregulated. As a whole electricity prices for companies in Europe will drop. All the same there
are big potentials for improving the energy efficiency in all economic sectors and in private
households that are far from being exhausted. These potentials are profitable at today’s prices
and even with decreased prices. After the removal of non-technical obstacles (e.g., by information
initiatives, legal incentives) they will be exploited to a big extent.
Market Strategy
Whenever countries or companies invest outside of the core market or start developing a new
market, medium and long term trade is considered. Such considerations are also made when
entering into the CO2 offset market. The interest of investing countries or companies therefore
lies in countries that represent a big potential or future market to the CO2 offset buyer. Such
markets are at present above all in EITs. Moreover the relation to EITs is important to European
OECD countries because of historic relationship or political reasons (peace keeping, controlled
transition to a market economy, etc.). The US and Canada as important non-European OECD
countries will tend rather to trade with NAFTA and other countries in Central and South America
for reasons analogous to European countries with EITs.
Zimbabwe NSS Report
37
Therefore, the chance of DCs, especially in Africa (Zimbabwe being no exception), to enter into
trade with OECD countries in general is rather poor. An exemption could be countries having
already strong trade relations to DCs, in the case of Zimbabwe, e.g., Great Britain.
3.5.4 Obstacles to Zimbabwe from International Constraints
Rules of CDM
The rules for CDM are far from being clear. The main operational definitions are still to be
defined:
− definition of the baselines;
− restrictions on trading;
− prerequisites of a country that enables it to trade;
− certification and validation issues.
Therefore the positioning of the sellers of GHG reductions is considerably unclear.
In order to participate in a CDM market the following recommendations are suggested for
Zimbabwe:
− declare the will to participate in the market;
− inform possible GHG reducers. They must be aware of opportunities and threats the new
market offers. Conditions under which GHG reductions are recognised as CERs shall be
communicated, especially to big energy consumers (e.g. industrial companies) and elec-
tricity producers;
− establish an authority/office where CERs can be announced. This office should be man-
aged efficiently and free from political considerations to ensure high quality projects,
credibility, continuity, and low transaction costs;
− develop mechanisms to group small projects. Otherwise transaction costs will be too high,
thus reducing the amount of potential GHG projects Zimbabwe can offer;
− conduct training and outreach seminars and workshops to inform potential project devel-
opers, government officials, and other interested parties about CDM potentials and meth-
ods. CDM must be seen as a development potential for Zimbabwe, and interested parties
have to be informed about how to take advantage of this opportunity;
− include unilateral CDM projects to reduce risks perceived by external investors. This also
facilitates the inclusion of project realisation of national or international Non Annex I
parties. More projects could thus be included in the Zimbabwean offer;
− clarify controlling, verification, and monitoring procedures in Zimbabwe;
− elaborate clear rules and regulations on how to proceed when realising a GHG reduction
project, and
− elaborate formats including baseline and additionality calculations and other project
information demands which allow project developers to provide high quality projects.
Entering a new market is associated with certain risks, including the following.
− The price of CERs will not be known when starting a project. This precludes knowledge of
opportunities and threats associated with producing CERs.
− If the demand to CERs is delayed, how will the price be determined?
− If the Kyoto Protocol does not come into force, a total or at least partial loss of investment
for the CER generation could occur.
Zimbabwe NSS Report
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If Zimbabwe is in the situation of being an early market participant, some uncertainties enter the
scene.
− The first traded CERs could either be traded at a high price (for trading partners have no
experience) and due to a lack of concurrence the price- making is not yet according to
classic market rules.
− For the same reasons the price may be too low because in the initial phase the cheapest
measures are realised. This leads to cheap GHG reduction costs in the demanding country
as well as in the supporting country.
− Therefore a possible policy could be to "bank" CERs and to bring them to the market only
when prices are high. This scenario will be very risky to countries like Zimbabwe, which
has small sellers and therefore few possibilities to influence prices. Moreover for the
reasons described in sections 3.1.2 a price forecast is rather difficult. The developments in
the demand in OECD countries and developments in the supply of competing countries
(especially with a big offer of CERs and later ERUs) cannot be predicted at the time.
Zimbabwe NSS Report
39
4. SECTORIAL GHG EMISSIONS,
INVENTORY, DEVELOPMENT,
AND OFFSET POTENTIAL
4.1 Introduction
This chapter of the study looks at the sectoral (energy, industry, residential, transport, land-use
change and forestry and agricultural sectors) generation of greenhouse gas emissions in their
historical, current, and future perspectives so as to provide the policy makers with a basis for
decision making in AIJ/CDM process. The chapter will discuss the energy base in Zimbabwe and
then demonstrate to the Zimbabwe government that national GHG emissions will certainly
increase with economic development and demographic trends. It is hoped that the government
would then see the need for seizing AIJ/CDM opportunities in reducing GHG emissions, thereby
opening doors for bringing Environmentally Sound Technology (EST) into the country.
The chapter also aims to show potential investors the existence of large and easily accessible GHG
abatement potentials in Zimbabwe for the discussed sectors as well as sustainable developments
benefits for the host country. The results of this study should strengthen the conventional view in
the OECD countries that the CDM is basically an avenue for minimising Kyoto commitment costs
to them. This could be achieved by OECD countries investing in emissions reduction/avoidance
activities in non-Annex I parties thereby obtaining credits through the CDM.
In order to meet the above objectives this chapter will discuss the relevant issues in the following
sequence: main energy supply base in Zimbabwe, GHG inventories, future GHG emissions trends
in different sectors, and abatement potentials and their likely development in the coming years.
Finally, the chapter will present a pipeline of selected potential CDM projects.
4.2 Macro-Economic Analyses and Major Assumptions
Zimbabwe’s Initial National Communication provides information on the principal sources of
GHG emissions and the quantified emissions for the selected base year (1994) and projected
trends based on assumed economic and technological developments. This is backed by the most
recent data from the sectoral analyses. Because the current and future GHG emissions in Zim-
babwe will be largely determined by the economic development of the country, a common
economic scenario has been defined for the different sectors.
4.2.1 Economic Status Quo and the Zimbabwe Programme for Economic and Social
Transformation - ZIMPREST (1996-2000)
The Zimbabwe Programme of Economic and Social Transformation (ZIMPREST) launched in
1998 calls for enhanced liberalisation of the economy, expanded industrial sector to provide
employment for the increasing population, and an improved quality of life for the people.
A recent assessment (mid-1999) of the Programme indicates that little headway has been made.
The country has been going through turbulent economic times during the past twelve months.
The collapse by about 50% of the Zimbabwe dollar with respect to all hard currencies has resulted
Zimbabwe NSS Report
40
in spiralling inflation and a great deal of instability in the economy. The net result is that targets
set in the ZIMPREST are not being met.
Table 4.1 GDP Growth (Real GDP at 1990 prices Z$ million)
Year Agriculture Mining Industry Other GDP Growth%
1994 3375 888 6219 9802 5.3
1995 3119 935 5888 10117 -1.1
1996 3774 925 6091 10677 7.0
1997 3709 884 6323 10986 2.0
1998 3825 875 6449 11100 1.6
1999 3901 889 6593 11312 2.0
Source: Zimbabwe CSO Statistics, Quarterly Economic Bulletins: Standard Chartered Bank, Barclays Bank.
Table 4.1 illustrates how poorly the Zimbabwean economy has performed in comparison with the
ZIMPREST minimum target scenarios for the key variables, i.e., GDP, investment, savings, and
export growth. The GDP growth rate was expected to average a minimum of 6% annually
between 1996-2000. This was only achieved in 1996 (7%). In 1997 GDP growth plunged to 2%.
Generally, the Zimbabwean economy has been characterised by an inability to restore and
maintain a stable and conducive macro-economic environment. The government has not been
able to contain expenditure within the set targets with the result that inflation, interest and
exchange rates continue to spiral upwards. As a consequence, economic volatility is currently
being experienced in Zimbabwe. Most of the gains made prior to 1996 have been eroded.
4.2.2 Economic Outlook
There is little indication that the above trend will reverse in the short-term. However, the econ-
omy is expected to stabilise and start picking up eventually. The important consideration is what
regulatory drives will lead the economy to rebound. Solutions seem to lie in implementing a tight
fiscal policy, with emphasis on significant reduction in government spending. One major regula-
tory driver is the government’s commitment to meet the economic restructuring targets set out in
agreement with the IMF. This is important if the government is to continue receiving the struc-
tural adjustment credit financing.
GDP growth in the short term is not expected to exceed 3%. The economy is expected to start
picking up in the medium term (2005-2010), basically driven by infrastructure needs. Current
forecasts support an average growth rate of 4% in the long term. There is no significant difference
between this forecast and the 4.6% GDP growth rate in Initial National Communication. Thus the
4.6% GDP growth is adopted for purposes of this study for the period until 2010. For 2010 - 2020 a
somewhat lower growth rate of 3.8% is expected.
Although projected emissions have to move in the same direction with economic growth (or
volume of production), one has to analyse carefully whether this actually means that the forecast
emission projections in the Zimbabwe Initial National Communications need to be revised.
What is certain is that, while the economic growth prospects for Zimbabwe look gloomy at the
moment, the energy demand forecasts show normal growth (ZESA, SDP) in the short, medium
and long term. This is because of unsatisfied demand and the lack of cost-competitive alternative
Zimbabwe NSS Report
41
forms of energy. Thus the projected emissions for the energy supply sector will not be directly
affected because of the continual growth in energy demand.
4.3 Zimbabwe Energy Supply
4.3.1 Domestic Resources and Current Energy Balance
Zimbabwe is rich in natural resources including energy, as outlined in Table 4.2.
Table 4.2 The Energy Resource Base in Zimbabwe
Source Potential
Coal (million t) 17 000
Hydro (MWe) 13 300
Coal Bed Methane (million m
3
) 50 000 000
Oil (million t) Nil
Solar radiation (KWh/m
2
.yr) 2100
Wind (m/s) 3.2
Source: Maya, R.S., et. al. SAPP Study, 1998
The primary energy supply base and end-use distribution of fuels is shown in Figure 4.1. These
pie charts portray the energy balance. The following sections describe the various forms of
significant energy sources in Zimbabwe.
Figure 4.1 The National Energy Balance in Pie Chart Form
Electricity
Total bulk energy supplied by ZESA, a statutory body, was 9 700 GWh in 1996. The system
operated on a transmission loss rate of 2.6% and a distribution loss rate of 8.4%. Maximum
demand for the operating period 1996/97 was 1 828 MW.
Primary Energy Supply, 1996
100%= 359PJ
Coal
42%
Oil derivatives
8%
Electricity
Imports
6%
Woodfuels
42%
Other Fuels
2%
Final Energy Consumption, 1996
100%= 283PJ
Coal
15%
Oil derivatives
18%
Electricity
12%
Woodfuels
49%
Other Fuels
6%
Zimbabwe NSS Report
42
Imports from Mozambique, Zambia, and Congo (DRC) amounted to 4 012.9 GWh in 1996/97,
equalling 35% of the total energy consumption for that period. Currently, power imports are
mostly hydro from Mozambique and the Congo (DRC) as well as thermal (coal-based) from
South Africa. The current total installed capacity of 1 857 MW is made up of 666 MW of hydro
power from the Zambezi and the rest is coal based [ZESA Annual Report and Accounts, 1997].
Any future expansion on the Zambezi River except for expansions limited to the Kariba South
(the Zimbabwean side of the Kariba
Scheme, the other being Kariba North, the Zambian side) will require the consent of Zambia and
needs to be a joint investment between the two countries. This naturally limits freedom of
decision for either party where expansions or new installations are concerned.
As of 1999, imports stand at about 45% of bulk supply. Power imports are transmitted through
interconnectors linking regional power utilities built to enhance regional electricity trade and
resource sharing. This inter-connector network is critical for any mitigation options such as hydro
electricity. Because of the small size of most regional economies, large-scale electricity sector
development will have to be coordinated closely with the development plans of other regional
partners. Those partners, which include all utilities in SADC except Mauritius, are grouped
together under the Southern African Power Pool. This is a power trading and power develop-
ment co-operation arrangement concluded through the Energy Protocol under SADC.
Recent studies (Southern Centre and GTZ, 1998) have shown that the Power Pool is a major
option for implementing power sector mitigation options. This can be achieved in two main ways.
The first is to engender a regional generation and investment schedule that favours fuel switching
to hydro, coupled with a conducive mechanism for cross-border power exports whereby clean
hydro dominates the supply base. The second is by ensuring amicable trade but in an environ-
ment where the more efficient and cleaner coal plants are optimised and the dirtier ones are run
at peak loads only.
The exclusivity of power supply by ZESA has been recently altered to allow independent power
producers and even consideration for ZESA to become a grid operator rather than a generator to
bring competitiveness into the industry. There is also new innovation on the fuel-base tradition.
Instead of coal and hydro plus a few stand-alone diesels, there is a serious chance for introducing
coal-bed methane into the generation base and another possibility in the remote future to perhaps
introduce natural gas fuels. Presently, however, the supply base and expansion plans are as
indicated in Table 4.3. After 2000, some smaller capacities currently used for peak load may be
retired.
4.3.3 Petroleum
Petroleum imports are the responsibility of the National Oil Company of Zimbabwe, a statutory
body administered by the Ministry of Transport and Energy, but distribution is accomplished by
private companies. Zimbabwe has no local crude oil resources and imports all its fuels as finished
products.
The total supply and end-use consumption is shown in the 1996 national energy balance (Figure
4.1). The three major liquid fuels - diesel, gasoline and paraffin – are consumed in ratios of 12:7:1.
Diesel is the most important fuel for agriculture and commercial transport while gasoline is used
mainly in light passenger transport. Paraffin is an important fuel for lighting and cooking in low-
income urban households. In rural households it is used mainly for lighting.
Zimbabwe NSS Report
43
Table 4.3 ZESA Plants, Interconnectors, and Latest Approved Expansion Plan
Station Net Capacity (MW) In-Service Date / Current Status
Refurbishment of Bulawayo
Power station (Thermal)
90 1 January, 1999 (Project Underway)
Harare (Thermal)
Munyati (Thermal)
90
120
Old plant
Old plant
All recently refurbished
Hwange Upgrade (Thermal) To produce the rated
capacity of 920
2001 (Project being implemented)
Kariba (Hydro) 666
Kariba South Upgrade (Hydro) 84 1999 (Project being implemented)
Total existing – thermal
Total existing – hydro
1220
750
Interconnectors:
Cahora Bassa-Bindura
Interconnect (Hydro)
SA
Zambia
Botswana
500
400
1200
120
October – 1997
(Project complete)
Planned expansions:
Hwange 7
Hwange 8 (Thermal)
1
st
Unit – 300
2
nd
Unit –300
1
st
Unit – 2001
2
nd
Unit – 2003 (Advanced
Planning stage)
Gokwe Power Station (Thermal) Units 1-3: 300 each
4
th
Unit:300
2004
2007
(Advanced Planning Stage)
Batoka Hydro Power Plant
(Hydro)
1
st
Unit – 200
2
nd
Unit – 200
3
rd
Unit – 200
4
th
Unit – 200
2010
2011
2013
2014
(Feasibility Studies Complete)
Total expansions planned Thermal (coal) – 1800 MW
Hydro – 800 MW
Source: ZESA, 1999
4.3.4 Coal
Coal is mined by one private company, Wankie Colliery Company Ltd. Present mining capacity is
6 million tonnes a year from both open-cast and underground mining. About 50% of this coal is
sold as raw overburden coal to ZESA for a mine-head, 920-MW Hwange Power Station, which is
due to be expanded by an additional 660 MW. The remainder is sold as washed and graded coal
for industrial steam raising and industrial heat supplies.
A second coal mine with a similar capacity is under active consideration to feed the planned
Gokwe North power plant shown in Table 4.3. This mine has coal to last 200 years at the current
rate of extraction.
Zimbabwe NSS Report
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As indicated in the energy balance, coal supplies 42% of energy for power generation, 13.7% of
energy to industry, and is a critical fuel for tobacco curing. It has limited application in transport
and households.
4.3.5 New and Renewable Sources of Energy (NRSEs)
The role of NRSEs in the Zimbabwean energy sector could be quite significant. This is mainly due
to the potential created by the low level of household electrification, which averages about 20%,
as can be determined from Table 4.4, where the extent of electrification in the various provinces of
the country is presented.
Table 4.4 Extent of Household Electrification Zimbabwe by Province (1992)
Province Household Electrified % Actual Unelectrified % Actual
Mashonaland West 232 340 21.13 49 093 78.87 183 247
Mashonaland Central 177 011 9.03 15 984 90.96 161 009
Mashonaland East 219 516 8.74 19 186 91.25 200 308
Manicaland 320 944 13.49 43 295 86.5 277 617
Masvingo 231 727 11.22 26 000 88.76 205 681
Midlands 247 723 24.21 59 974 75.79 187 749
Matabeleland South 108 815 10.12 11 012 89.84 97 759
Matabeleland North 116 115 15.47 17 963 84.39 97 989
Major City Harare 364 136 64.4 234 504 35.55 129 450
Bulawayo 145 962 91.83 134 037 9.16 11 910
Total 2 163 289 28.24 610 913 71.74 1 551 944
Area Wise Urban 763 706 71.65 547 195 28.32 216 282
Rural 1 399 583 4.55 63 681 95.43 1 335 622
Source: Southern Centre, JICA. 1997
The large demand that remains unmet for rural electrification cannot, in the short to medium
term, be met by grid extension. National policy makers are aware of this and in response there
has been a significant effort to include NRSEs in the supply base to meet rural household energy
needs.
Recent studies conducted under the SADC Programme for Financing Energy Use in Small Scale
Enterprises (FINESSE) have indicated a large market and investment potential in this sector
[SADC FINESSE Study, 1998]. The study considered five different NRSEs: biogas digesters, solar
home systems, solar water heating, and small-scale hydro and wind energy.
The study estimated that there is a total of 256 biogas digesters installed in the country with a cost
range of US $200-US $350. Zimbabwe has a large population of livestock to allow for the wide
diffusion of biogas digesters for home application and for community or institutional energy
supplies. There is a reliable local supply of end-use devices such as lamps and cookers. The
diffusion rate for this technology has nonetheless remained impeded by cost and lack of skilled
personnel to market and construct the units.
If we define a micro hydro unit to be 300 kW or less, we can identify numerous options on small
dams and run-off river options with a combined potential of 10 MW. Capital cost per kW
invested is estimated at US $2000. To-date, a few (eight) of these options have been installed, and
Zimbabwe NSS Report
45
a number of them have been investigated. The latest of these, Manyuchi Dam, is a pilot phase AIJ
project between E-7 and the government of Zimbabwe.
In general, wind speeds in Zimbabwe are too low for the generation of electricity, although for
some time now wind energy has been used primarily for the mechanical pumping of water. There
are current investigations, which seem to indicate that the generation of electricity might be
possible in some areas of the country.
Other options such as use of biomass and the production of plant oil for fuel purposes are under
active investigation. Tertiary biomass conversion has been tried. The Triangle Ethanol Plant has
been producing 40 million litres of ethanol from sugar annually in years of good rainfall since the
early 1980s. Ethanol is blended with petrol up to a content of 13%.
National policy on NRSEs and the requisite experience with financing these systems was greatly
enhanced by the UNDP/GEF Solar PV project, which started in the early 1990’s and ended in
1999. This project made significant inroads into market development, financing mechanisms,
institutional arrangements and policy reorientation of benefit to the NRSE sector. The project
started off with a goal of installing some 9 000 PV units over a period of five years. This goal was
achieved with minor adjustments to the actual figures installed, based on a 45-W unit equivalent,
the most common size used in Zimbabwe. The FINESSE study projected a saturation level of 260
000 solar home systems with a combined capacity of 11.7 MW around 2010, assuming a unit
panel capacity of 45 W.
4.3.6 Summary of Energy Sources
Zimbabwe has a large conventional fuel resource base: coal with total reserves of 10.6 billion
tonnes, of which half a billion are proven, and hydroelectric power with a total potential of 13 300
MW mainly on the Zambezi River shared system.
Coal makes up about 42% of the primary energy supply in the country, and about 70% of the
domestic power generation, the remainder of internal power generation being hydro-based.
Petroleum, which covers about 8% of primary supply, is exclusively imported as finished distil-
lates. Firewood is the second dominant fuel, making up about 40% of primary supply. It consti-
tutes a major source of energy, particularly for the rural population and the low-income urban
group. Although there are no statistics to support this, it is possible that the use of wood as a fuel
results in significant deforestation. Clearing land for agricultural purposes is the biggest cause of
deforestation, and 1994 estimates put such clearing at over 18 000 hectares per annum [Zimbabwe
Initial National Communication, 1998].
Other forms of renewable energy such as solar gas and biogas have received notable attention,
but this has mainly been at research level or under diffusion activities funded on a non-commer-
cial basis. While solar water heaters are becoming more common in high-income urban areas, the
cost relative to alternative and more traditional heating appliances still makes them unobtainable
for the majority of the people.
In the coming years economic growth and rising residential demand will require an increased
supply of all the above-mentioned fuels. There are significant expansion plans for coal-based
power generation in the short to medium term (until 2004). Expansion of large-scale hydro
generation on the Zambezi River, in contrast, is timed for 2010 and later and requires close
coordination with neighbouring countries.
Zimbabwe NSS Report
46
Table 4.5 Summary of GHG Emissions in Zimbabwe, 1994 (Gg)
Greenhouse Gas Source and
Sink Categories
CO
2
CH
4
N
2
O No
x
CO CO
2
Equivalent
Global Warming Potential 1.00 24.50 320.00 40.00 3.00
1: All Energy (Fuel Combustion + Fugitive) 14 772.13 77.19 1.18 10.08 544.46 19 076.68
A: Fuel Combustion 14 772.13 63.95 1.18 10.08 544.46 18 752.36
i. Power Generation 6 803.17 0.01 0.01 6 806.73
ii. Residential 151.22 0.00 0.00 151.28
iii. Transport 1 851.40 0.98 0.56 2 054.20
iv. Agriculture 1 814.96 0.04 0.03 1 825.95
v. Mining 224.46 0.01 0.01 227.48
vi. Industry 2 397.25 0.05 0.03 2 409.35
vii. Commercial & Others 1 529.67 0.17 0.11 1 568.00
viii. Biomass burned for energy 62.69 0.43 10.08 544.46 3,709.36
B: Fugitive Fuel Emissions 0.00 13.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 324.32
i. Coal Mining 11.78 288.65
ii. Post coal mining 1.46 35.67
2: Industrial Processes 2 316.35 19.08 6.05 0.21 1.38 4 732.20
A: Mining Industries 23.70 6.05 1,959.70
B: Metallurgical & Mineral Processing 1 844.00 19.08 0.04 1.38 2317.25
C: Beer, Wine & Spirit Manufacture 0.00 0.00
D: Sugar Manufacturing 0.00 0.00
E: Cement Production 448.65 448.65
F: Fertiliser manufacture 0.17 6.60
3: Agriculture 0.00 236.84 2.39 66.91 1,381.81 13 388.96
A: Agricultural Waste 0.00 0.93 0.03 1.10 19.81 135.82
B: Enteric Fermentation 179.82 4 405.54
C: Manure Management 7.09 173.71
D: Savanna Burning 49.00 2.36 65.81 1,362.00 8 673.90
4: Land Use Change & Forestry 18 734.48 1.26 0.01 0.20 18.44 18 831.74
A: Forest & Grassland Conversion 2 500.28 1.26 0.01 0.20 18.44 2 597.54
B: Changes in Forest & Other Woody
Biomass Stocks
16 234.20 16 234.20
C: Managed forests NE NE
D: Abandonment of Managed Lands NE
5: Waste 0.00 25.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 616.06
A: Landfills 24.31 595.60
B: Wastewater 0.84 20.46
TOTAL 35 822.96 359.52 9.63 77.40 1 946.08 56 645.63
Zimbabwe NSS Report
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4.4 Zimbabwe GHG Emissions Inventory
4.4.1 Summary of National GHG Emissions 1990-1994
The latest GHG inventories from Zimbabwe were compiled in 1998 as part of the Zimbabwe
Initial National Communication to the UNFCCC Secretariat (Table 4.5). The baseline year for
these inventories was 1994. The method used in compiling these GHG emissions was based on
the 1995 and 1996 IPCC Guidelines.
The following remarks are associated with these current emissions.
(a) Although the previous estimates of emissions shown in this table indicate Zimbabwe as a
net sink, new arguments being put forward refute this on the premise that only the addi-
tion of biomass sequesters carbon. However, Zimbabwe still remains a massive absorber
of CO2 from its standing forests and other forms of biomass.
(b) Commercial energy data are relatively accurate (~90-95 %) while the accuracy for bio-
fuels used in rural areas is much lower (~75-80%). The accuracy level of emissions from
Land Use Change of Forestry is not known because of significant uncertainties (Zim-
babwe Initial National Communication, 1998).
Fig 4.2 shows the sectoral GHG emissions. Power generation from coal is the highest contributor
to GHG emissions, followed by industry, transport, and agriculture. The domestic sector only
accounts for 1% of commercial fuel emissions, most of which come from traditional biomass fuels.
Figure 4.2 Sectoral Distribution of GHG Emissions from Commercial Fuels
Source: Zimbabwe Initial National Communication, 1998
CO2 remains the most important pollutant of the GHGs with 63% contribution to overall emis-
sions. Methane is second in importance with 16% followed by carbon monoxide. The oxides of
nitrogen contribute a combined total of 11% (Fig 4.3).
Commercial &
Others
10%
Industry
15%
Mining
3%
Agriculture
11%
Transport
12%
Residential
1%
Power
generation
48%
Zimbabwe NSS Report
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4.4.2 Emissions Associated with Energy Sector
Emissions from the supply side for energy arise from coal mining, post coal-mining activities
except combustion at the end use point, coal conversion, to electricity and electricity generation
from small diesel plants.
Activity levels associated with these emissions for the chosen base year, 1994, were known from
previous studies (the US Country Studies Programme, UNEP GHG Abatement Costing Studies,
and the National Communication and updates in the Southern Centre/GTZ studies on Climate
Change and the Southern African Power Pool, 1997). The emission levels were derived from these
activity data. They are presented in Figure 4.4, which gives an overview of the main GHG
emissions from various sectors.
Figure 4.3 Contribution of Individual GHGs to Total Emissions in Zimbabwe
Source: Zimbabwe Initial National Communication, 1998
4.4.3 Emissions from the Industrial, Residential and Transport (IRT) Sectors - Overview
In the present study, the emissions in the energy sector are restricted to sources on the supply
side, i.e., emissions from coal combustion for power generation, coal mining, methane from
hydro-reservoirs, etc. In turn, the emissions in industry, residential and transport (IRT) also
include contributions from fuel combustion and fugitive emissions from industrial processes
excluding coal mining.
Fig 4.4 shows that in the IRT sectors, biomass burned for energy is the highest contributor to GHG
emissions, with nearly 4 000 Gg of CO2 equivalent emissions. This is much more than emissions
from industrial combustion alone, although combined industrial emissions would surpass
biomass emissions. Biomass burned for energy is usually associated with rural domestic con-
sumption with few cases of industrial and agricultural usage. Contributions to emissions of other
fuels in the domestic sector are much smaller (4%) compared to the use of biomass, mainly in the
form of fuelwood. Industrial fuel use and mineral processing also account for significant indus-
trial emissions of 2 409 Gg and 2 317 Gg of CO2 equivalent, respectively.
CO
10%
NO
x
5%
N
2
O
6%
CH
4
16%
CO
2
63%
Zimbabwe NSS Report
49
Industry
Although it is acknowledged that energy generation is by far the principal source of CO2 emis-
sions, industrial processes such as mining, mineral processing, and manufacturing also contribute
significant quantities to emission levels of CO2 and other GHGs as shown in Figure 4.4.
Figure 4.4 Sectoral Distribution of GHG Emissions /C02 Eq
Source: Zimbabwe Initial National Communications, 1998
A principal source of emissions from mining operations includes the decomposition of calcium
carbonate into lime, which releases CO2, and this was estimated to be 23.7 Gg. In addition,
explosives used in blasting operations during mining produce N2O, estimated to be 6.5 Gg in
1994.
Estimates made for 1994 indicate emissions of 1 440 Gg of CO2 from iron and steel as well as 404
Gg from the ferro-alloy sector. Insignificant amounts of NOx and CO in the order of 0.04 and 1.38
Gg, respectively, were also released during such processing.
Estimates based on the IPCC methodology indicated that 448.65 Gg of CO2 were released from
cement manufacture in 1994, excluding 360 Gg of CO2 arising from the combustion of coal during
cement manufacture. The two major cement production plants in Zimbabwe utilise the dry
processing technology that consumes less energy than the wet process route.
0 100 0 2000 3000 4 000
Em is s io n s ( Gg )
M in i n g ( c o m b u s tio n )
M i n i n g In d u s tr ie s
In d u s tr y ( c o m b u s tio n )
M e ta l lu r g ic a l a n d M i n e r a l P r o c e s s i n g
C e m e n t p r o d u c ti o n
F e r til is e r m a n u fa c tu r e
R e s id e n tia l c o m b u s tio n
B i o m a s s b u r n e d fo r e n e r g y
T r a n s p o r t
Zimbabwe NSS Report
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Residential Sector
Zimbabwe’s urban population relies to a great extent on electricity and kerosene for its domestic
energy needs. Use of wood in urban areas is largely restricted to periods of severe winters, which
run for very short periods of time.
Fuel wood is a major energy source in Zimbabwe, accounting for about 40% of primary energy
supply and 50% of final energy consumption [1996, Energy Balance]. Low-income urban house-
holds consume on average 2 kg of fuel wood per day with load-limited electricity supplies and 12
kg a day for those without electricity. Over 96 % of the energy that rural households depends on
comes from fuelwood; they consume on average 14.5 kg wood per household per day.
Urban Waste
Waste generated in Zimbabwe’s urban areas is normally disposed of by land filling, recycling,
incineration, and open-dumping, the latter being applicable in the case of solid waste. Liquid
waste is primarily disposed of through managed treatment works. In cases where residential sites
have septic tanks, they are considered to be temporary storage, as they are periodically emptied
into municipal systems. The principal GHG emitted from waste is methane. According to 1994
assessments [Initial National Communication], total CO2 equivalent emissions amounted to 595.6
Gg from landfills and 20.46 Gg from wastewater.
Transport Sector
Road transport is another important source of GHGs in Zimbabwe. The total locally registered
vehicle population has doubled between 1992 and 1998 [Central Vehicle Registry Statistics] and
reached about 900 000 vehicles in 1998. The 1994 GHG emissions from transport were estimated
at a total CO2 equivalent of 2054.20Gg.
Commercial and Other Sectors
The commercial sector is a significant contributor to GHGs emissions in Zimbabwe. In 1994, the
emissions from this sector were estimated at a total of 1 568 Gg of CO2 equivalent. The main
sources of emissions from the commercial and other services sector are associated with the use of
liquid and solid fuel combustion in public and private institutions such as hotels, schools,
hospitals, and police camps. Fuels include coal, LPG, paraffin used mainly for cooking, and to a
lesser extent heating. Government departments are usually considered alone when consumption
of petrol and diesel are accounted for. This is mainly because these large consumers are taken as
bulk consumers and are therefore accounted for separately.
4.4.4 Emissions Associated with Land-Use Change and Forestry, Agricultural Sectors
Zimbabwe has a total land area of approximately 390 000 square kilometres. The land area under
agricultural production amounts to 10 738 077 hectares, with another 20.5 million hectares
covered with forests and the rest being rock outcrops, water bodies, and settlements (FC, 1996).
In Zimbabwe the underlying causes of deforestation involve the interplay of historical, biological,
economic, and political factors at both national, village, and household levels. The causes include
population pressure for agricultural land, the demand for industrial timber production, and
inappropriate government policies regarding land tenure, economic incentives, and forest
settlement. Rapid population growth (2.9%) appears to be the critical factor affecting deforesta-
tion. The majority of the population depends on agriculture. Most of the increases in agricultural
Zimbabwe NSS Report
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production necessary to sustain a high population come from the expansion of the area under
cultivation through deforestation.
The agricultural sector contributes about 14% to the GDP and employs 70% of the work force
population. Emissions of GHG’s occur from several sources, including burning of crop waste,
enteric fermentation, manure management, and savannah burning. Using the 1994 crop produc-
tion, livestock figures and the IPCC guidelines (1995), the GHG emission levels were estimated to
be 13 388.96 Gg CO2 equivalent (Table 4.5).
Changes in land-use and forestry activities both emit carbon dioxide (e.g., through conversion of
forestland to agricultural or urban use) and have the potential to act as a sink for CO2 through
improved forest management activities.
4.5 Emissions Projections
4.5.1 Objectives
The objectives of this section are to show the development of business-as-usual GHG emissions in
Zimbabwe. These projections will be used to calculate the GHG reduction potentials, i.e., the basis
of investors’ involvement in AIJ/CDM projects in non-Annex I countries. The projections in this
section are based on the projected level of economic activities and other macro-economic
parameters in the country.
Projections are primarily based on a projected GDP growth of 4.6% in the period 2000 to 2010 and
3.8% thereafter. It should, however, be noted that the projected GDP growth may be on the
optimistic side since recent developments do not support such growth rates. GDP growth is
factored into current sectoral energy intensities and GDP contribution to derive future sectoral
GDP contribution. Sectoral consumption is then derived from the assumed energy intensity
taking into account international improvements in efficiency as represented by the Autonomous
Energy Efficiency Improvement (AEEI) Index.
4.5.2 Future Trends in GHG Emissions from the Energy Supply
GHG emissions from the energy supply are projected based on ZESA's expansion plans for
thermal power generation, the coal demand schedule (see Table 4.3.), and associated coal mining
activities. A high dependence on coal conversion to electricity will increase supply-side emissions
significantly while a high dependence on hydro generation will reduce emissions to lower levels.
It therefore follows that the following emissions projections for the power sector are based on the
current thermal generation capacities and the current approved ZESA expansion plan shown
earlier in Section 4.3.2.
We also assume that imports will remain constant in absolute terms. This is because of the present
uncertainty with the future role of imports. ZESA would prefer to import no more than its reserve
margin but may not be able to hold to this preference. The present structure of excess capacity
among ZESA regional suppliers indicates that these suppliers may not be able to continue
supplying ZESA due to increased internal demand. Under these circumstances, it appears safe
not to vary the present level of imports (i.e., projected emissions are at the upper range of what
can be expected).
ZESA's expansion plan shows the scheduled plant installations. The projected coal demand for
ZESA's power generation and the total national coal demand is given in Table 4.6 below. This
coal demand projection is based on the current consumption patterns with additional consump-
Zimbabwe NSS Report
52
tion at the new plants (Hwange 7 and 8 and Gokwe North). Coal consumption in a thermal power
generation plant is based on the expected electrical output from the plants (in GWh) and plant
efficiencies (i.e., conversion from TJ of coal to GWh of electricity). The calorific/heat values of the
coal are also taken into account to estimate the quantities of coal needed to produce the required
energy in joules.
Table 4.6 Coal Demand Schedule (TJ)
1994 2000 2005 2010 2015
National coal demand 132 436 162 657 193 046 229 112 254 439
Coal demand for power
generation
72 247 78 085 120 550 141 799 141 799
Coal demand for generation as
% of national demand
54.55% 48.01% 62.54% 61.89% 55.73%
Source: Southern Centre/UNEP Country studies Phase II, 1993
The above coal demand schedule and IPCC emission factors for coal, diesel, and coal fugitives
forms the basis of the emissions projection shown in Table 4.7. Consistent with the approach
adopted in the previous sections, projections for energy use in sectors other than power genera-
tion are provided in separate sections. Table 4.7 shows that CO2 emissions from power genera-
tion are expected to approximately double until 2015. The increase will be highest between 2000
and 2005 when Hwange 7 and 8 and Gokwe North are planned to come on stream. On average,
CO2 from power generation will grow at approximately 4.3% per year, which is close to the
projected GDP growth of about 4.6%/year. Methane emissions from mining will grow parallel to
the coal demand for power generation and industrial heat production.
Table 4.7 1994 Emissions and Projected GHG Emissions from Electricity Generation and Coal
Supply
1994 2000 2005 2010 2015
CH4 emissions from coal/Gg
Underground mining
Mining 8.79 11.20 13.20 15.21 17.21
Post mining 1.23 1.57 1.85 2.13 2.41
Surface mining
Mining 3.27 4.17 4.92 5.66 6.41
Post mining 0.28 0.36 0.43 0.49 0.56
Total emissions 13.58 17.30 20.39 23.49 26.59
GHG emissions from thermal power generation/Gg
CO
2
6 803 7 313 11 290 13 280 13 280
CH4 0.01 0.16 0.25 0.30 0.30
NOx - 10.45 16.13 18.96 18.96
CO - 1.31 2.02 2.37 2.37
NO2 0.01 0.27 0.42 0.49 0.49
Source: Southern Centre for Energy and Environment, 1999
Zimbabwe NSS Report
53
4.5.3 Future Trends in GHG Emissions from Industry (Cement Manufacturing, Industry
Combustion, Mining and Metallurgical Operations)
Sectoral projections are based primarily on expected growth in the macro-economic activities
described earlier. These projections are presented in Table 4.7. However, where information is
available for specific projects to be implemented, estimates of energy consumption in such
projects are made. This is the case with the electricity supply outlined above. The same applies to
other industrial projects where enough details on production levels allow us to estimate energy
use.
Cement Manufacturing
There are planned cement manufacturing projects which will in future contribute to GHG
emissions. The projects may be expansions of existing installations or entirely new ones. Current
cement production comes from two companies, namely, Portland Holdings Ltd. and Circle Ltd. A
third producer, an IDC- Chinese joint venture, is presently constructing a large plant near the city
of Gweru.
The expansions indicated in Table 4.8 above are intended to meet the growing needs of the
construction industry and replace current imports of cement or clinker. The projected CO2
emissions are expected to increase by 139 % on the 1994 levels after the implementation of the
proposed projects. This would exceed projected GDP growth rates for the time being until the
first commitment period (2008-2012). The new cement production facilities are planned to use the
dry processing route.
The total emissions indicated above include only emissions from the calcination process itself.
The emissions from the coal that is used to provide the process heat for the cement production
(current: 360 Gg/year) is included in the category ”industry combustion” below.
Industry Combustion
The use of coal for combustion in manufacturing is a major source of CO2 emissions, as can be
seen in Table 4.5. Projected emissions from this source are expected to follow the country’s GDP
growth, as was described in Section 4.2.
Table 4.8 Present and Expected Capacities of the Cement Plants
Plant
Current Production
( ‘ 000 tons)
Planned Capacity Year on line
Portland Holdings ltd 600 1000 2001
Circle Cement Ltd 300 450 2 002
Sino – Idc Ltd. Nil 700 2 000
Total 900 2 150
Total Emission CO
2
448.7 1 070
Source: Portland, Circle & Sino - Pers. Comms .
Mining
During the period between 1994 and 2010 a number of large mines are expected to come on
stream. The Hartley Platinum Mine, which had reached about half of its targeted capacity when it
shut down in June 1999, but it is expected to resume operation in a year. Mimosa, Ngezi and Unki
Zimbabwe NSS Report
54
Platinum mines on the Great Dyke are under feasibility studies, and indications are that each will
produce upwards of one million tonnes of rock per year from 2001 on. Eureka Gold mine is due
for full-scale production by the end of 1999. Based on anticipated tonnage of rock to be produced,
the level of N2O derived from explosives used is set to increase by 350% on the 1994 levels
(Eureka Mine internal Information, personal communication)
Metallurgical Operations
Metallurgical operations constitute one of the principal sources of CO2 emissions in the industry
sector. For several years during the 1990s, the production of iron and steel at the Zimbabwe Iron
and Steel Company was at levels far below normal capacity. According to company officials only
350 000 tonnes of steel were being produced during the last seven years. This was due to the fact
that the large Blast Furnace No. 4 was offline for the period. The No. 4 furnace was recommis-
sioned into production in July 1999, and when fully operational at the end of 1999, could produce
about 800 000 tonnes of steel per year. Emission levels from these works are expected to increase
by 50% by the end of 1999 compared to the 1994 levels.
The two Ferro-chrome smelters at Gweru and Kwekwe do not have any plans for major expan-
sions, and thus CO2 emissions projections are based on the GDP growth rate of 4.6%, as described
in Section 4.2. above. This should take into account any conceivable unknown projects that could
be implemented during the period.
Future Trends in GHG Emissions under Residential Sector
In order to make reasonable projections of emissions emanating from the urban residential sector
it will be necessary to take into account new policy interventions by the government. In trying to
redress the inadequacies of the past, the government has recognised the lack of adequate accom-
modations, which has given rise to the construction of shacks within existing premises. Often
such shacks are of a low standard in terms of the provision of electricity, water and space.
The new policy is intended to redirect investment into the residential sector not just from gov-
ernment and local authorities but more importantly, from the mobilisation of resources from the
private sector. With the improvement in the quality of housing, waste generation is expected to
increase correspondingly in keeping with the GDP growth rate of 4.6% until 2010 and 3.8 % for
the year 2030 (Section 4.2). Projections for the residential sector are also shown in Table 4.9.
Table 4.9 Emission Projections for the Industry, Commercial and Residential Sector (Gg of CO2
equivalent)
SECTOR 1994 2010 2030
Mining operations 1 959.7 5 889.2 10 365.9
Mining combustion 227.7 684.3 1 205.3
Metallurgical processing 1 849.7 2 774.6 4 883.3
Commercial & Others 1 529.7 2 998.2 5 876.5
Industry combustion 2 406.9 4 813.8 8 472.2
Cement production 448.7 1 346.1 2 369.2
Fertiliser manufacture 6.8 10.2 13.9
Residential 595.6 1 169.3 2 465.3
Total 9 024.8 19 685.7 35 651.6
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4.5.5 Future Trends in GHG Emissions in the Transport Sector
For transport-related GHG emissions, we assume a development parallel to the GDP growth
described in Section 4.2. Growth in the transport sector has been erratic over the last two decades,
with sharp growth experienced in the 1990s. The growth of motor vehicles over the period 1992 to
1999 can be estimated to be about 12.2% per annum and this is used to estimate emissions in year
2000. However, this growth is not likely to remain high as markets saturate. After the year 2000, it
is more realistic to match growth in this sector with general economic growth as given by the
GDP. This leads to the following projection shown in Table 4.10.
Table 4.10 Projection of GHG Emissions from the Transport Sector Based on GDP Growth Rate
Year CO2 CH4 N2O CO2 Equivalent Annual GDP growth
1994 1851 0.98 0.56 2055 Nat. com.
2000 3702 1.96 1.12 4 108.42 12.2%
2010 5804 3.07 1.76 6 441.57 4.6%
2020 8428 4.46 2.55 9 353.31 3.8%
4.5.6 Future Trends of GHG Emissions in the Land-Use Change, Forestry, and Agricultural
Sectors
Forestry, together with land-use change, is one of the most important sectors in Zimbabwe, both
in the context of GHG emissions and general development. This sector is a major source of GHG
emissions, primarily because of rapid rates of deforestation and forest degradation from cropland
establishment and timber and fuelwood collection (Forestry Commission, 1996). It also represents
opportunities for emission mitigation by both reducing emissions and increasing sinks. Emissions
from this sector will be influenced increasingly by population demand for agricultural land at
both the subsistence and the commercial agriculture level. Expansion in the demand for land is
governed by the population’s food requirements.
Table 4.11 GHG Emission Projections from Land-use Change and Forestry/Gg
Gas Source 1994 2010 2039
CO
2
Land clearing 2 500.28 16 234.20 158.38
Biomass removals 16 234.20 15 490.00 1 030.00
CH4 Forest clearing 30.88 29.40 1.94
N2O Forest clearing 2.78 2.66 0.19
NOx Forest clearing 8.16 7.60 0.52
CO Forest clearing 55.32 52.80 3.51
CO2 eq. Total 18 831.62 31 816.66 1 194.54
N.B. Decimal in the totals have been rounded. Source: Zimbabwe Initial National Communication (1998)
During the 1980-91 period the livestock herd increased by 21%, although there was a negative
trend from 1991-96 due to drought (CSO 1997). If we extrapolate from the 1980-91 trend, the
livestock population is expected to increase during the first 20 years, after which it should reach a
Zimbabwe NSS Report
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ceiling due to constraints on land availability. Tables 4.11 and 4.12 show emission projections for
these (Agriculture, Land-use Change, and Forestry) sectors for the indicated years.
Table 4.12 GHG Emissions Projections from Agriculture/Gg
Gas Source 1994 2010 2039
CO2 Land clearing 2 500.28 16 234.20 158.38
Biomass removals 16 234.20 15 490.00 1 030.00
CH4 Forest clearing 30.88 29.40 1.94
N2O Forest clearing 2.78 2.66 0.19
NOx Forest clearing 8.16 7.60 0.52
CO Forest clearing 55.32 52.80 3.51
CO2 eq. Total 18 831.62 31 816.66 1 194.54
N.B. Decimal in the totals have been rounded. Source: Zimbabwe Initial National Communication (1998)
4.5.7 Summary of Emission Projections
The following table summarises emission projections from all major sources in the country up to
the year 2020. Emissions in 1994 are based on Zimbabwe’s Initial National Communication.
Emissions in later years have been extrapolated using the GDP growth rate of 4.6% up to 2010
and 3.8% thereafter.
Table 4.13 Summary of Emission Projections by Source
GDP Rate 4.6 % GDP Rate 3.8 %
1994 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
All Energy 19 076.68 24 990.45 31 288.04 39 172.63 47 203.02 56 879.64
Fugitive Fuel
Emissions
324.32 424.86 531.92 665.97 802.49 967.00
Industrial
Processes
4 732.20 6 199.18 7 761.38 9 717.24 11 709.27 14 109.68
Agriculture 13 388.96 17 539.54 21 959.50 27 493.30 33 129.42 39 920.96
Land Use Change &
Forestry
18 831.74 24 669.58 30 886.31 38 669.66 46 596.94 56 149.31
Waste 616.06 807.00 1 010.41 1 265.00 1 524.36 1 836.81
TOTAL Emissions 56 969.96 74 630.61 93 437.56 116 983.80 140 965.50 169 863.40
NB: The 1994 emissions are based on the Initial National Communication. It is assumed that the GDP growth rate is proportional
to the emissions. The GDP growth rate is taken to be 4.6% up to 2010 after which it declines to 3.8% (see Section 4.2.2).
Zimbabwe NSS Report
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4.6 GHG Abatement Potentials
4.6.1 Objectives of GHG Abatement Potentials
This section provides both the Zimbabwe government (host partner) and potential investors with
the sizes and nature of the GHG mitigation potentials in the country. A pipeline of potential
AIJ/CDM projects is described in detail in Annex I of the study.
4.6.2 Methodology
GHG abatement potentials were determined on the basis of the bottom-up approach method.
(UNEP Greenhouse Gas Abatement Costing Studies, 1993). This method entails the identification
of abatement technologies and their associated emissions savings in the identified sectors, i.e.,
energy, industry, residential, transport, agriculture, forestry and land-use change, and forestry.
To determine the overall reduction potential of each option, assumptions on maximum diffusion
rates of the technology are required. Note that these assumed diffusions are, in most cases, rough,
conservative estimates. The study gives an overview of the most promising GHG abatement
options.
In this section we consider a pipeline of five projects (mitigation options) selected from a longer
list of up to twenty one mitigation options previously studied and presented in the Initial Na-
tional Communication for Zimbabwe. The strategic significance of this projects pipeline in the
AIJ/CDM process is discussed in Chapter 5 below.
4.6.3 Projects Pipeline
This pipeline of projects is derived from the energy, industry, agriculture and residential sectors.
Details of the projects pipeline are found in Annex I.
Energy
Investment in Small-Scale Hydroelectric Power Stations to Supply Rural and Peri-Urban Consumers
The example for the mini-hydro project was drawn from the Osborne Dam. This investment
reduces consumption of power generated from coal, thereby reducing GHG emissions associated
with thermal power from coal-fired plants. The potential for mini hydro to exceed 10 000 MW
and units of up to 300 kW can be supported by the hydro power in some sections of the country.
This is an attractive option in areas where grid extension is expensive as a supply option and to
increase the reliability of supply where grid supply is intermittent. Arrangements can be made to
enter into a power purchase agreement with major suppliers such as ZESA. The penetration of
this technology is assumed at 1000 kW.
Agriculture and Land Use Change and Forestry
Improved Technology of Tobacco Curing
Agriculture contributes 14% to the GDP. Of this contribution tobacco accounts for 10% GDP and
employs 152 000 people, supporting an estimated 700 000 people). Tobacco is cured using coal
(mostly large-scale commercial farmers) and wood (mostly small-scale commercial farmers). The
curing process causes significant CO2 emissions. The fuel wood used by the small-scale farmers is
being harvested unsustainably from common property resources. The small-scale sector produces
about 2% of the tobacco sold every year (6 million kg), which uses 14.5 m2 wood per 1000 kg
tobacco cured. The estimated annual CO2 emissions from this sector alone is 96 325t CO2 (Annex
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I). The introduction of slot furnaces would result in a 55% reduction in CO2 emissions, as well as
savings in the amount of fuelwood harvested for curing.
Residential Sector
Wastewater Plant
This project involves the generation of power from gas produced in a sewage plant. It involves
the installation of three gas engine generator sets fuelled by methane from three sewage plants.
They will provide heat and 150 KW of electricity. The cover and piping of sewage gas is already
installed. It is assumed that the power will be used in the sewage plant itself. This will reduce the
consumption of power from the grid.
A continuous production of sewage gas at the site is an important precondition for an efficient
engine operation. Currently the sewage plant seems overloaded at the time. This might endanger
the gas production at the site. Engine operation and maintenance must be assured by the proper
training of operators. The lifetime of the project is expected to be ten years during which 159 580
tonnes of emissions (CO2 eq) are expected to be reduced.
Industry
Among the various mitigation options encountered in industry only the efficiency improvement
in boilers is considered to offer real potential for adoption. The others–e.g., the change in furnace
design type from electricity and coal to plasma arc, waste heat recovery, replacement of motor
drives, etc.--are all considered too small and isolated for single project applications.
Boiler Efficiency
Zimbabwean industry has about 700 coal-fired boilers in service for steam generation. Their
capacity ranges from as small as 30 kg of steam per hour to as large as 20 tonnes of steam per
hour but the majority is in the range of 2 tonnes per hour. The largest number of installed units
relies on solid fuel in the form of pulverised coal. One of the boiler manufacturing companies in
Zimbabwe estimates that boiler operating efficiencies are quite low–as low as 50 %. This means
half of the calorific energy from coal used in heating the boilers is lost and not put to useful work.
There is therefore potential for improvement to higher levels such as 74 %. Measures to improve
boiler efficiency include the replacement of old equipment or the introduction of monitoring and
controlling devices. Such devices would monitor the temperature and composition of exit gases
and, where necessary, make adjustments to the fuel-air ratios in order to optimise combustion. In
addition, improvements in work practices such as soot cleaning and the installation of insulation
on steam piping would ensure more efficient heat transfer.
For the purposes of analysing this project in the context of CDM, improved performance could be
achieved by replacing existing units in industry. It is easier to estimate savings by such an
intervention than other measures, where quantification of savings is difficult. The analysis is
based on one 2-tonnes-per- hour boiler unit. It is assumed that the analysis carried out on one unit
can be replicated on 700 other units by the year 2010. The renewal of one boiler results in an
annual emission reduction of 1.052 Gg CO2. For 700 boilers, the project’s annual effect reaches
736.4 Gg CO2.
Among many other potential CDM projects, the boiler efficiency improvement is considered to
offer the best reduction potential prospects for the following reasons:
Zimbabwe NSS Report
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• There is a large number of units in existence already in the country (700).
• As industries grow, there is a growing market for new installations, which is estimated to
reach 2000 by the year 2030.
• The manufacture of complete boiler units and any efficiency improvement devices is carried
out in Zimbabwe and hence has fewer constraints. Replication potential is high.
Energy
Use of Coal-Bed Methane for Ammonia Generation
This option envisages the introduction of a new ammonia conversion plant based on coal-bed
methane, which was recently discovered in Zimbabwe. The methane would be mined directly for
purposes of feeding the ammonia conversion plant and will not be tapped from ongoing coal
mining works. The rationale for this option is that the country presently generates ammonia (used
as raw material for fertiliser and explosives) from an energy-expensive, electrolysis-based system.
The electrolysis plant currently has a demand of 80 MW derived from coal-fired plants. The
ammonia from the CH4 plant would mitigate emissions associated with the 80 MW presently
supplied to Sable Chemicals. Only one plant will be built, with a capacity to reduce 808 000
tonnes per year over the reduction period. This is a negative-cost plant but one with a very high
initial capital outlay. The option has been studied quite thoroughly and would be tied to a newly
proposed coal-bed methane mine. The details of the project, presented in Annex I, were derived
from old data which do not reflect the present situation. These figures only serve to present the
coal-bed methane enterprise as a potential CDM project. The negative cost estimates are likely to
be revised given the experience with significant barriers to implementation over recent years. In
the event that a donor is interested in the project, then more detailed and more accurate calcula-
tions with new data will have to be used in order to ascertain the viability of the project. The
calculations as they are now in Annex I do not present a viable economic scenario. The project
idea has been under discussion for along time. The major obstacle to its implementation has been
the large initial financial investments required.
Table 4.14 Projects Pipeline
Option Reference scenario
C02 Reduction at
assumed diffusion
(tonnes per year)
Reduction Cost
(US$/ton C)
Assumed
Diffusion
Coal bed methane* NH
3
from electrolysis 808 000 -30 1 plant
Mini Hydro Coal-fired power 20 000 -2 1 000kW
Industrial boilers Low energy efficiency 1 052 1.3 7000 units
Improved tobacco
curing technology
Use of more fuel wood
through low energy
efficiency
45 480 1.40
Power production from
sewage plant methane
Flaring of methane 15 958 29.0 1 plant
* Though coal-bed methane is presented here, it should be noted that it is still a project concept whose
viability needs to be recalculated with new data. The figures presented in the table above are not represen-
tative of the current situation.
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4.7 Other Possible GHG Abatement Projects
Apart from the options given in Section 4.6 above, other possible mitigation projects from the
different sectors are listed below (Table 4.15).
Table 4.15 Mitigation Options Analysed for the Supply Side
Option Reference scenario
C02 reduction at
assumed diffusion
(tons/yr)
Reduction Cost
(US$/ ton)
Assumed
diffusion
Afforestation No afforestation 774 0.4 1 000 ha
Biogas digester Fuel wood use,
deforestation
910 000 1.5 100 000
digesters
Hydro-power Coal-fired power 8 200 16.0 1 000kw
Central PV Coal-fired power 6 99.1 100kw
PV Pumps Diesel Pump 40 5 091.1 700 pumps
Source: National Communication For Zimbabwe, 1998
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5. GHG MITIGATION IN ZIMBABWE
OPTIONS AND BENEFITS
5.1 Introduction
The overall objective of this section is to illustrate the opportunities that exist in Zimbabwe for the
reduction of GHGs. The country is presented with strategic and recommended options that the
policy makers of Zimbabwe can use as a basis for decision-making. The conclusions at the
outcome of this chapter should enable Zimbabwe to make informed decisions to respond to the
opportunities and risks presented by international markets for GHG offsets under the AIJ/CDM
processes.
The value of potential GHG offset markets for Zimbabwe is analysed, taking into account the best
sectoral mitigation options and the associated projects. The CO2 reduction potential for each
option was evaluated both quantitatively and qualitatively as well. The projects were also
evaluated on the basis of their environmental, ecological, economic, and social benefits.
The analysis would be incomplete without a consideration of the required regulatory mitigation
options and their abatement potential. Although the energy sector presents the major opportuni-
ties, other sectors have also been considered.
The outputs are expected to be the options for Zimbabwe under the given circumstances, taking
on board such issues as national and sectoral priorities and risk assessments. Carefully analysed
criteria were used for the selection of the projects that form part of the project pipeline for
Zimbabwe.
5.2 Significant Identified Mitigation Options
The summary of major findings is a synthesis of the most significant sectoral outputs, comprising
a qualitative description of the proposed mitigation options, quantitative estimates of the GHG
reduction potentials, as well as the associated costs. An analysis of the proposed mitigation
options shows that the measures can generally be categorised into
• improving combustion efficiency (boiler efficiency, tobacco curing)
• environmentally clean technologies (mini-hydro)
• renewable alternatives (coal-bed methane, sewage-plant methane)
5.3 The Value of the Potential GHG Market for Zimbabwe
The value of the potential CDM market for Zimbabwe is extensively discussed in Chapter 3. In
order to strategically position itself in the offset markets, Zimbabwe should create appropriate
domestic prerequisites. The effectiveness of these external markets will, to a large extent, depend
on the local factors. Though the demand for offsets markets exists, domestic actions could also
result in the reduction of GHG emission.
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By participating in AIJ/CDM processes Zimbabwe will benefit from EST with spin-offs in
sustainable economic growth. Creation of a favourable investment climate by reducing risks and
additional costs (transaction and production) is imperative if Zimbabwe is to participate in
international markets.
5.4 Projects Pipeline
The purpose of the projects pipeline (discussed in Section 4.6.3) is to demonstrate show Zim-
babwe’s position, with respect to CDM under the Kyoto Protocol, to potential investors. From the
pipeline, potential investors get a sample of a cross-section of projects that are candidates for
financing under the AIJ/CDM process in Zimbabwe. Vital information on these projects such as
annual emissions, potential GHG abatement reduction costs, the life of the projects, and replica-
tion potential and risks are given in the Uniform Reporting Formats in Annex I. Such strategic
information should help Zimbabwe to realize potential benefits from the AIJ/CDM process at an
early stage compared with other developing countries. Potential investors could also carry out
detailed feasibility studies for projects of their interest. These projects are shown in Table 4.14.
5.5 Project Selection Criteria
General project selection criteria for AIJ/CDM are as follows.
• The project must be compatible with and supportive of national environmental and devel-
opment priorities and strategies and contribute to cost-effectiveness in achieving global bene-
fits.
• The project must be officially accepted, approved or endorsed as an AIJ/CDM project.
• The project must bring about real, measurable, long-term environmental benefits related to
the mitigation of climate change that would not have occurred in the absence of such an
activity.
• The financing of CDM must be in addition to the financial obligations of the donor country
within the framework of the official development assistance (ODA) flows.
Table 5.1 National Economic Development Priorities and Strategic Options for Zimbabwe
National Economic Development Priority Strategic Options
Sustained high rates of economic growth Establishment of macro economic stability by
reducing government budget deficit
Speedy development in order to raise
incomes and standards of living
Continuous growth in exports.
Mobilising public and private sector savings
and investment
Economic empowerment and poverty
alleviation
Generating opportunities for employment and
encouraging entrepreneurial activities
Investing in human resource development
Providing a safety net for the disadvantaged
AIJ/CDM projects must fulfill national economic development priorities and be in line with set
strategic options. The national economic development priorities and strategic options for Zim-
babwe are outlined below in Table 5.1. A project has to have real measurable, long-term envi-
ronmental benefits related to the mitigation of climate change. The principle of additionality will
Zimbabwe NSS Report
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be applied for projects with real environmental long-term benefits on the mitigation of climate
change that would otherwise not occur without the project. Risks and barriers to project imple-
mentation such as prohibitive capital costs must be clearly identified and demonstrated. Extra or
additional financing will be over and above the already existing arrangements and obligations.
The other criteria for project selection was the reduction potential.
AIJ/CDM projects must also satisfy the broad national environmental priorities and strategies.
These priorities are outlined in Table 5.2 .
Table 5.2 National Environmental Priorities for Zimbabwe
National Environmental Priorities Strategies
Integrated management of Zimbabwe’s
eco-systems
Integrated land use planning
Environmentally friendly production
principles
Sustainable and equitable use of natural
resources
Waste management practices
Undertake research on unsustainable
resource use
Protection of the resources base and
conservation of bio-diversity
Develop community based environmental
programmes and interventions.
Source: ZIMPREST: Zimbabwe Programme for Economic and Social Transformation, 1998
AIJ/CDM projects must satisfy sectoral environmental priorities as shown in Table 5.3.
Table 5.3 Sectoral Environmental Priorities
Sectoral priorities
Responsible
organisations
Strategies
Integrated
management and
sustainable use of
natural resources
and protection of
the environment
Ministry of
Mines
Environment
and Tourism
Increasing the annual afforestation rates
Developing plans for conservation management
and protection of the resource base
Enforcing environmental and energy audits
Research and development of new and
renewable sources of energy
Rational use of energy through demand side
management and pricing policies
To promote
economic growth
through efficient,
equitable and
sustainable use of
natural resources.
Ministry of
Mines
Environment
and Tourism
Increase employment capacity
Compliance with existing regulatory
instruments
Increase world market share for local products
Improve and
maintain the quality
of life for
Zimbabweans
Ministry of
Mines
Environment
and Tourism
Establish programmes to safeguard social and
cultural values
Reduce effluent into water bodies
Reduce air pollutants to acceptable standards
Source: Strategic Directions. Ministry of Mines, Environment and Tourism, July 1998. The National Conservation
Strategy: Zimbabwe’s Road to Survival. Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism, April1998.
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5.6 Secondary Project Benefits
Besides the global reduction in GHG emissions the projects should also provide secondary
benefits for the host country and the local communities. The host country secondary benefits are
shown in Tables 5.4 and 5.5.
Table 5.4 General Benefits Accruing to Zimbabwe
BENEFITS DESCRIPTION
Technology Transfer Encourage private sector diffusion of innovative technology that can help
meet Zimbabwe ‘s development priorities.
Investments Expands investments in technologies and projects that reduce GHG
emissions while contributing to overall host country development priorities.
Environment Reduced SO2 emissions resulting in reducing acid rain effects.
Reduced pollution of air, water and soil from coal combustion products.
Reduced deforestation and soil erosion from reduced forest clearing.
Economic Capacity building and skills transfer, cost saving from facilities and
production processes and provision of new energy services.
Social benefits Improvements in general quality of life; cottage industries; improved health.
Promoting Sustainable
Development
Encourages additional private sector investment and dissemination of
technologies and practices which contribute to sustainable development.
Learning Effects Participants get an opportunity to influence the direction and AIJ/CDM
structure beyond the pilot phase.
5.7 Regulatory Mitigation Options
In the Zimbabwe energy market electricity and most liquid fuels are charged prices below their
economic costs. This is being worsened by current harsh economic conditions where the prices of
energy products have not been adequately adjusted for the depreciation of the Zimbabwe dollar
and for inflation. This means that consumers are not being given the correct price signals, for they
are enjoying subsidised energy products.
Table 5.5 Specific Project Benefits
Sector Project Type Environmental Benefits Socio-Economic Benefits
Industry Boiler Efficiency Reduced GHG emissions due to
reduced consumption of coal
Reduced pollution due to
efficient consumption
Financial benefits from
reduced coal consumption
Energy Coal bed
Methane
GHG emission reduction due to
displacement of coal
Pollution reduction
GHG emission reduction at
source due to replacement of
electrolytic processing of
ammonia (NH
3
)
Employment creation
Reduction in power
imports for ZESA
Plant savings from reduced
power bill.
National capacity building
in new gas technologies
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Mini Hydro Reduced emissions from clean
power generation technology
No hydrological-ecological
Problems due to small levels of
river/stream damming
Autonomous power
supplies to off-grid
consumers
Improved amenities
Possible income generating
facilities of rural
communities
Electrification of rural
health or educational
centres.
Agriculture Efficient
Tobacco Curing
Reduced GHG emissions due to
reduced consumption of coal
and wood
Reduced deforestation
Financial savings from
reduced coal and fuel
wood consumption
Residential Waste Water
Plant
Reduction of methane in the
atmosphere
Financial saving from
reduced consumption
There is scope to increase the efficiency of energy use by reducing subsidies and charging prices
that reflect costs. The associated benefits are threefold:
• reduced government spending, which is crucial for improving macro-economic stability as
outlined in Section 4.2 of this study
• reduced energy demand and consequently lower GHG emissions as a result of higher energy
prices paid by consumers.
• positive employment effects as energy prices increase relative to labour prices.
The energy saving will in effect feed into an effective demand-side management programme. If
demand is curtailed this also reduces the required investments in energy supply alternatives. The
same effect can also be achieved by regulations requiring utilities to engage in demand-side
management and energy conservation programmes.
While it is important to charge economic costs for all energy products, non-pricing regulatory
measures could also assist in improving end-use energy efficiencies. This study shows that
Zimbabwe, being a developing country, should give greater scope to technological, industrial,
and developmental advancement. Previously regulatory mitigation options have been considered
in the energy sector as a non-pricing measure to improve energy efficiency. The information
below is based on the Integrated Energy Strategy Evaluation for Zimbabwe published in 1992
(ESMAP, Report No 8768-ZIM), which made an in-depth analysis of the potential to use regula-
tions as a mitigation option in Zimbabwe. The following section outlines possible areas where
regulatory measures and improvements could be introduced.
In infrastructure or industrial development, innovation and expansion, there is scope for
increasing efficiency by installing state-of-the-art energy-saving equipment. End-use efficiency is
still low, and there are considerable opportunities in industry, transport, and public buildings to
reduce energy consumption. The potential has been estimated at 15-20% of current use, half of
which can be realised through low-cost measures. In monetary terms these savings were esti-
mated to be Z$140 million.
In the transport sector regulatory mitigation options could consist of improving efficiency in fuel
pricing and fuel quality monitoring. Strict regulations on maintenance of vehicles and retrofitting
to improve combustion efficiencies could be formulated and instituted. Public transport operators
Zimbabwe NSS Report
66
could be encouraged to rationalise routes and schedules as an option for reducing fuel consump-
tion.
Appropriate building codes for power levels and standards for new constructions, especially for
lighting, water heating, and air conditioning, could be developed and implemented for new
public buildings such as offices, schools, hospitals, as well as commercial establishments. Energy
audits for existing buildings should be undertaken and, where necessary, retrofits fitted to ensure
efficient ventilation, power levels, and indoor temperature control.
General conservation legislation, including appliance labelling, could be introduced to comply
with international environmental standards. Government taxation policies could offer grants and
tax incentives and credits for GHG emission reduction projects and training related to these.
These policies must be pushed through and implemented. There is also need to establish institu-
tions that can raise awareness and provide technical knowledge on energy efficiency.
5.8 Conclusions
From the foregoing sections on the mitigation projects pipeline, structure of international markets,
projects selection criteria, national domestic prerequisites, environmental and sectoral priorities,
and the required regulatory measures Zimbabwe should have a clear picture of the way to move
forward regarding risks, options, benefits and requirements under an AIJ/CDM framework. For
Zimbabwe to gain maximum benefits (sustainable development, technology transfer, etc.) from
these mechanisms, strategic decisions should be taken now on the basis of the findings from the
National Strategy Study. The country should utilise this advantage by strategically ranking its
options with reference to the projects pipeline and other important considerations associated with
the AIJ/CDM process.
In this regard there is great scope to undertake new initiatives in the areas highlighted in this
chapter with the participation of both private and public sectors. Reviews should be undertaken
to find areas where current legislation could be strengthened and amended or areas where new
legislation should be introduced.
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6. CONCLUSIONS
The objective of the present study has been to expose the Zimbabwean authorities and potential
investors to CDM projects opportunities that exist in the country. It is hoped that this study will
further assist the Zimbabwe government in formulating policies targeted at involvement in
AIJ/CDM projects. By taking cognisance of existing and projected macro-economic conditions
and considering future trends of GHG emissions, the Zimbabwean authorities are expected to
make strategic decisions aimed at maximising the country’s participation in the AIJ/CDM
process.
This study has demonstrated that Zimbabwe has some GHG abatement potentials in the eco-
nomic sectors of energy, industry, residential, agriculture and land-use change, and forestry. The
estimated costs of these abatement potentials per ton of carbon were also determined so as to
provide potential investors with a snapshot of the level of financial commitment required to
implement any of the selected projects. The bureaucracy, baselines, and risks associated with the
investment climate in Zimbabwe were also discussed within the general context of domestic
prerequisites.
This study has described the energy supply base of Zimbabwe-i.e., thermal power electricity
generated from coal, liquid fuels (petroleum products), wood fuel, and hydroelectric power.
Zimbabwe imports all of its petroleum requirements.
On the basis of the 1994 baseline year, the study has demonstrated that 90% of Zimbabwe’s
emissions come from the energy sector. As the country develops, it is projected that these emis-
sions will grow. From this perspective, this study puts Zimbabwe in a strategic position to take
steps to reduce emissions through AIJ/CDM processes.
Having discussed the emission projections, the study looks at GHG abatement potentials and
their costs, lifetime, and risks.
A selected pipeline of projects is also presented to give both Zimbabwean and potential foreign
investors a snapshot of CDM possibilities in Zimbabwe.
Finally, the present study looks at national economic development and environmental and
sectoral priorities, together with possible regulatory measures, that encourage the public at large
to participate in mitigation options.
On the international scene the primary role of the CDM is to guide foreign corporate investment
in developing countries toward goals of sustainable development. These intentions are fraught
with difficulties in the sense that, on the one hand, Annex I countries want to minimise GHG
abatement costs globally while, on the other hand, developing countries want to maximise
resource and technology flows and minimise interference with normal foreign aid. In these
North-South discussions it is appropriate that developing countries have meaningful input into
how the CDM unfolds. There is support for this in the fact that the history of foreign investment
and technology transfer has shown that investor-driven projects frequently fail if there is mini-
mum local participation and acceptance at the project inception level. The way this study had
been conducted is therefore appropriate in the sense that the Zimbabwe government has been
involved right from the outset. This is one of the ways in which large flows of foreign investment
could be channelled into sustainable development and how greenhouse-gas developments could
be achieved in non-Annex I countries.
Zimbabwe NSS Report
68
APPENDIX:
GHG PROJECTS – UNIFORM
REPORTING FORMAT FOR AIJ
UNDER THE PILOT PHASE
This Annex contains project details presented in the format of the Unified Reporting Format
(URF) developed under the pilot phase of AIJ. The information is taken from organisations and
institutions mentioned in the URF.
Further studies are necessary, in particular, to assess and include the consequences of possible
barriers of implementation in the cost calculations. Project 1 (Osborne Dam) and Project 5 (Coal-
Bed Methane), having negative incremental costs over the baseline that make their implementa-
tion likely, have been included here because their reassessment could lead to positive cost
estimates that may make them eligible for the CDM.
Zimbabwe NSS Report
69
PROJECT 1    OSBORNE DAM
A. Description of Project
A.1 Title of Project: Osborne Dam Hydroelectric Power Generation Project
A.2 Participants/actors:
Item Please fill in if applicable
Name of organisation
)
: Zimbabwe Power Company
Acronym ZPC
Function within activity: Overall project management, main sponsor
Street: 12th floor, Megawatt house, Samora Machel Av.
Post code: P.O. Box 377
City: Harare
Country: Zimbabwe
Telephone: +263 4 250407/9
Fax: +263 4 705193
E-mail: imupotsa@zpc.co.zw
Contact person (for this activity): -------------------------------------
Surname: Mupotsa
First name, middle name: Isaac F.
Job title: Managing Director
Direct tel: +263 4 705193
Direct fax: +263 4 705193
Direct E-mail: Imupotsa@zpc.co.zw
Item Please fill in if applicable
Name of organisation
)
: Ministry of Rural Resources and Water Development
Acronym MRRWD
Function within activity: Water authority and owner of dam.
Street: 6
TH
Floor Kurima House, 89 Nelson Mandela Ave.
Post code: Private Bag 7712
City: Harare
Country: Zimbabwe
Telephone: +263 4 737691
Fax: +263 4 722752
E-mail:
Contact person (for this activity): -------------------------------------
Surname: Kabell
First name, middle name: Terry C.
Job title: Deputy Director, Designs
Direct tel: +263 4 737691
Direct fax: +263 4 722733
Direct E-mail:
Item Please fill in if applicable
Name of organization
a)
: Ministry of Mines, Environment and Tourism
Department: Climate Change Office
Function within activity: Government Contact, Zimbabwe
Street: Nyerere Street
Zimbabwe NSS Report
70
Item Please fill in if applicable
Post code: P Bag 7753 Causeway
City: Harare
Country: Zimbabwe
Telephone: +263 4 757 881 1/5
Fax: +263 4 757 006
E-mail: Climate@harare.iafrica.com
Contact person (for this activity): -------------------------------------
Surname: Sangarwe
First name, middle name: Margaret
Job title: Under Secretary
Direct tel: +263 4 757 880
A.3 Activity:
Item Please fill in if applicable
General description - AIJ/CDM
project
Installation of a 3 MWe hydro electric plant at Osborne Dam. The dam already
exists, it was erected for irrigation purposes.
The power will be fed into the grid. To this end, a power purchase agreement
will be entered into with ZESA: ZESA will be willing to purchase power from
the project because it is a renewable energy project and, because it will add
capacity to the system and provide reliable backup power in the area.
Uncertainties, risks, gaps:
• Plant size will depend on the agreed water release plan for power genera-
tion. The indicated 3 MW take into account possible water release restric-
tions (to be confirmed in discussion with the Ministry of Lands and Water
Resources).
• Dam design has no specific provision for water take off for power genera-
tion. Appropriate modifications need to be done.
• Additionality of the project's climate benefits need to be studied in detail
(see Section E1). A crediting time considerably shorter than the technical life
of the project seems appropriate, since the project is likely to be imple-
mented soon even under non-CDM conditions.
General description - project
baseline (reference scenario)
The project baseline assumes that an equivalent amount of electricity will be
produced in a new coal-fired power plant
Type of project:
a)
Renewable energy
Location (exact, e.g. city, region,
state):
Osborne Dam, Makoni District, Manicaland
Activity starting date: Approx. Dec. 2003: commissioning of plant
Expected activity ending date: Time during which the project yields certified emission reductions: 10 years
(preliminary proposal)
Stage of activity:
b
Pre-feasibility stage
Lifetime of activity if different
from
ending date:
Technical life of investments: 20 years
Technical data: Capacity: 3 MW
Power generation: 21'000 MWh/year
a) For example, using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) classification: energy efficiency; renew-
able energy; fuel switching; forest preservation, restoration or reforestation; afforestation; fugitive gas capture;
industrial processes; solvents; agriculture; waste disposal or bunker fuels.
Describe existing work on the project:
The project forms part of the development plan of the newly established Zimbabwe Power Company
(ZPC), which is a subsidiary of ZESA. See the following documents:
Zimbabwe NSS Report
71
• ZPC, Project Development Plan, June 1999
• ZPC, Renewable Energy Projects, June 1999
ZPC's development plan includes several other power generation projects of similar size, based on hydro,
waste wood, and sugar-cane wastes.
A.4 Cost (to the extent possible):
CDM Project
Baseline
GOKWE NORTH
(14000 MW)
Total Investment 1999 Z$ 100'000'000 114'000'000
Technical life of investment Years 20
Discount rate % 12.5 %
Levelized investment 1999 Z$ 15'300'000 17'400'000
Operation and maintenance p.a. 1999 Z$/yr. 7'000'000 2'800'000
Fuel p.a. 1999 Z$/yr. -- 3'900'000
Total levelized cost p.a. 1999 Z$/yr. 22'300'000 24'100'000
Incremental cost p.a. 1999 Z$/yr. -1'800'000 not applicable
GHG reduction p.a. (see details in Section E) t CO2 eq/yr. 20'000 not applicable
Unit abatement cost 1999 Z$/t CO
2
-90 not applicable
Unit abatement cost 1999 US$/t CO
2
-2 not applicable
Describe briefly how costs are determined; specify key assumptions.
• See calculation details in the Annex to this URF.
• The project baseline assumes that an equivalent capacity (3 MW) is installed in a new coal-
fired plant and that an equivalent amount of power (21'000 MWh/yr) is produced.
• Exchange rate July 1999: 1 US$ = 38 Z$
A.5 Mutually agreed assessment procedures:
Not applicable to projects of NSS pipeline at the current stage
B. Governmental acceptance, approval or endorsement
Not applicable to projects of NSS pipelinet at the current stage
C. Compatibility with and supportiveness of national economic development and socio-
economic and environment priorities and
Describe (to the extent possible) how the activity is compatible with and supportive of national economic
development and socio-economic and environment priorities and strategies
Zimbabwe has an active renewable energy program, which supports the development and utilisation of renewable
energy for sustainable development. The President of Zimbabwe is the current chairman of the World Solar
Commission.
There is need for a significant number of renewable energy projects in Zimbabwe.
The Osborne Dam Hydroelectric Power Plant Project will go a long way in supporting Zimbabwe’s renewable
Zimbabwe NSS Report
72
energy programme.
The project will also provide local capacity building in small-scale hydroelectric schemes and hence increase the
potential for use in hydroelectric power in Zimbabwe.
It will provide jobs during construction and operation. It will provide a basis for improved access to electricity for
the local rural settlements, schools and community clinics. It will encourage the development of tourist activities on
the dam and hence improve the economy by providing jobs and business growth.
D. Benefits derived from the activities implemented jointly project
Whenever possible, quantitative information should be provided. Failing that, a qualitative description should be
given.
Item Please fill in
Describe local environmental benefits (excluding benefits
for global climate; see Section E) in detail:
Describe local social/cultural benefits in detail:
Describe local economic benefits in detail:
E. Calculation of the contribution of activities implemented jointly projects that bring about real,
measurable and long-term environmental benefits related to the mitigation of climate change
that would not have occurred in the absence of such activities
E.1 Estimated emissions without the activity (project baseline):
Description of the baseline or reference scenario, including methods applied. Specify key assumptions and emission
factors used.
The baseline scenario assumes that an equivalent amount of electricity is produced in a modern coal-fired
power plant: (21 GWh/yr; transmission losses neglected, thermal efficiency 36%, 95 kg CO2/GJ coal)
Additionality: The project is currently being developed by the commercially-oriented company ZPC. The
question whether the project would not be implemented "anyway", i.e. without the CDM incentive,
therefore remains to be examined in detail to determine whether the project in fact yields additional
climate benefits. The main barrier to non-CDM project implementation will, most likely, be the lack of
local funding in Zimbabwe, the lack of interest of international investors, and possibly the risks of the
project (e.g., possibility of droughts, conflict of interest between power generation and irrigation of
agricultural land). To ensure additionality of the project's climate benefits, the crediting time (time during
which the project yields transferable certified emissions reductions) should be kept significantly lower
than the technical life of the project (for instance, 10 years).
The additionality test for the project also has to ensure that
• the project does not increase overall power consumption by supplying power to local residents
that would otherwise remain unconnected to the grid and that does not have stationary (fossil-
fuelled) power sources
• the project does not replace hydro power imported from the Southern African Power Pool
• That, in brief, the project will actually replace power from fossil-fired sources.
E.2 Estimated emissions with the activity:
Description of the project scenario, including methods applied. Specify key assumptions and emission factors used.
Zimbabwe NSS Report
73
Hydropower generation does not cause any direct CO2 emissions. Indirect emissions, e.g., from construc-
tion activities, are negligible. Methane (CH4) emissions from the hydro reservoir are not relevant since the
reservoir already exists.
Crediting time is assumed to be 10 years.
Summary Table: Projected emission reductions
GHG Unit Emission per year
Total emission over project life
(10 years)
A) Project baseline
scenario
CO
2
CH4
N2O
other
total
t
t
t
t
t CO2 eq.
0 0
B) Project activity
scenario
a)
CO
2
CH4
N2O
other
total
t
t
t
t
t CO2 eq.
20'000 20'000
C) Effect ( A-B )
CO
2
CH4
N2O
other
total
t
t
t
t
t CO2 eq.
20'000 200'000
Summary Table: Actual emission reductions
Not applicable, since project was not yet implemented
F. Bearing in mind that the financing of activities implemented jointly shall be additional to
financial obligations of Parties included in Annex II to the Convention within the framework
of the financial mechanism as well as to current official development assistance flows, please
indicate:
Source of project funding including
pre-feasibility phase (for each source one line)
Amount
(1999 Z$)
Amount
(1999 US$)
(leave blank if funding has not been agreed yet)
G. Contribution to capacity building, transfer of environmentally sound technologies and know-
how to other Parties, particularly developing country Parties, to enable them to implement the
provisions of the Convention. In this process, the developed country Parties shall support the
development and enhancement of endogenous capacities and technologies of developing
country Parties.
Describe briefly the transfer of environmentally sound technology and know-how including where appropriate the
type of technology, terms, education, capacity building etc.
H. Additional comments, if any, including any practical experience gained or technical
difficulties, effects, impacts or other obstacles encountered.
Not applicable, since project was not yet implemented
Zimbabwe NSS Report
74
URF Osborne Dam - Calculation Details
Exchange rate Zim$ : USD (07/99) 38
CDM Project Baseline Remarks
hydro coal
Installed capacity kWe 3'000 3'000 1)
Capacity factor - 80% -
Power generation MWh/yr 21'024 21'024 1)
Generation efficiency - - 36%
Fuel consumption MWh/yr 0 58'400
CO2 emission factor t CO2/MWh fuel 0 0.342
Yearly CO2 emission t CO2/yr 0 19'973
Fuel price 1999 Zim$/MWh 0 66 2)
Net calorific value GJ/t 25.75 3)
Specific investment USD/kWe 877 1'000 4)
Total Investment 1999 Z$ 100'000'000 114'000'000
Technical life of investments years 20 20
Discount rate % 12.5% 12.5%
Levelized investment 1999 Z$ 15'281'089 17'420'442
Operation and maintenance p.a. 1999 Z$/yr. 7'000'000 2'777'770 5)
Fuel p.a. 1999 Z$/yr. 3'854'400
Total levelized cost p.a. 1999 Z$/yr. 22'281'089 24'052'611
Incremental cost p.a. 1999 Z$/yr. -1'771'522
Yearly GHG reduction t CO2 eq/yr. 19'973
Unit abatement cost 1999 Z$/t CO2 -89
Unit abatement cost 1999 US$/t CO2 -2
Crediting time years 10 6)
Cumulative GHG reduction t CO2 eq/10 yrs. 199'728
Remarks:
1) Impact of higher transmission losses in the baseline case are neglected, since the uncertainty in other parameters is much higher
2) Coal price: 0.51 USD/MBtu (Source: ZPC), @ 0.293 MWh/MBtu. Note that this price is only about 10% of the world market price level.
3) Source: Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for Nat. GHG Inventories, Reference Manual (Specific value for Zimbabwe coal)
4) Project investment is based on the feasybility study of a similar project (Claremont hydro PP) + 10% contingency.
Baseline investment is a conservative estimate for coal-fired PP excl. flue gas desulfurisation (comparison:
Southern Centre assumes 1'500 USD/kW for coal-fired reference plant; GEF 1'250 USD/kW incl. FGD)
5) Source: ZPC. Project O&M is assumed as three times the salaries of the staff required to run the plant under normal circumstances.
Baseline O&M is assumed as 2.05 USD/MWhe variable O&M plus 10 USD/kW/a fixed O&M.
6) Assumption: Project would have been implemented autonomously (i.e., in the baseline case) after 10 years.
Zimbabwe NSS Report
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PROJECT 2    TOBACCO CURING
A. Description of project
A.1 Title of Project: Improved Technology of Tobacco Curing
A.2 Participants/actors:
Item Please fill in if applicable
Name of organisation: Ministry of Agriculture
Department: Tobacco Research Board
Acronym: TRB
Acronym (English): -
Function within activity: Research Officer
Street: Tobacco Research Board
Post code: -
City: Harare
Country: Zimbabwe
Telephone: 263-4-575289/94
Fax: 263-4-575288
E-mail: Jane.Gonese@kutsaga.co.zw
WWW-URL: -
Contact person (for this activity): Jane Gonese
Surname: Gonese
First name, middle name: Jane
Job title: Research Officer
Direct tel: 263-4-575289/94
Direct fax: 263-4-575288
Direct E-mail: JaneGonese@kutsaga.co.zw
Item Please fill in if applicable
Name of organisation: Ministry of Mines, Environment and Tourism
Department: Climate Change Office
Function within activity: Government Contact, Zimbabwe
Street: Nyerere Street
Post code: P Bag 7753 Causeway
City: Harare
Country: Zimbabwe
Telephone: 263 4 757 881 1/5
Fax: 263 4 757 006
E-mail: climate@harare.iafrica.com
Contact person (for this activity): Margaret Sangarwe
Surname: Sangarwe
First name, middle name: Margaret
Job title: Undersecretary
Direct tel: 263 4 757 880
Name of consultant: Dr. Wolfram Kägi
Function within activity: Consultant
Affiliation B,S,S. Economic Consultants
Street: Blumenrain 16
Post code: CH-4051
City: Basel
Zimbabwe NSS Report
76
Item Please fill in if applicable
Country: Switzerland
Telephone: +41-61-262 05 55
Fax: +41-61-262 05 57
E-mail: contact@bss-basel.ch
Contact person (for this activity): Dr. Wolfram Kägi
Surname: Kägi
First name, middle name: Wolfram
Job title: Partner of B,S,S.
Direct Email: Wolfram.Kaegi@bss-basel.ch Wolframkaegi@hotmail.com
A.3 Activity:
Item Please fill in if applicable
General description - AIJ/CDM
project
In Zimbabwe, 3000 small-scale farmers produce and cure tobacco. The tobacco
curing process causes significant CO2 emissions. For the curing process very
simple furnaces are employed; wood is being used as fuel. The fuel wood is
harvested largely and increasingly from common property resources at a level
which is well above regeneration levels. Thus, the wood used for curing is not
CO2-neutral (sustainably produced) biomass energy, but current production
patterns cause net CO2 emissions and furthermore destroy valuable Miombo
forests.
By means of introducing so-called ”slot-furnaces”, and by the adoption of
other minor changes within the furnaces of the small-scale farmers, significant
emission reduction effects can be achieved. Wood fuel requirements could be
reduced by up to 55%. Given baseline CO2 emissions of approximately 96'000 t
CO2 per annum, annual emission reductions of approximately 53’000 t CO2 can
be achieved.
We assume a project life time of 11 years (2002 – 2012). The time horizon is
chosen because the credibility of the baseline would be hampered if we were to
choose a much longer time period and because potential CDM investors will be
primarily interested in credits for the Kyoto commitment period (until 2012).
But it is well possible that the project can be extended beyond the year 2012.
The investment phase of the project is expected to last 5 years. First emission
reduction effects are achieved after the first year. Once the investment is
undertaken, emission reductions are achieved without major further costs.
Over the life time of the project CERs of 424’000 t CO2 can be delivered. The
proposed technological changes are very simple and can be carried out by the
local farmers partially themselves (with some external help and some extra
finance). Thus the costs of the project are moderate.
Furthermore a large number of social, environmental and economic side
benefits are achieved for the local population: valuable Miombe forests are
protected which in turn helps to protect biodiversity in the area, prevents soil
erosion and enhances watershed services of the forested land.
General description - project
baseline (reference scenario)
At least 90% of the tobacco produced by small- scale farmers is cured using
wood, of which 95% is harvested in an unsustainable manner. This causes
biomass loss and thus net CO2 emissions of a magnitude of 96'000
tCO2/annum (see part E below for calculations)
Type of project
a)
: energy efficiency
1

1
The activity of this project is the improvement of energy efficiency and the direct effect of the project is an emission reduction effect. The
fuel being wood, we have an additional effect of forest protection, because the wood used is not harvested sustainably. It is now possible that
this project is to be seen as a land use change or forestry project rather than an energy efficiency project. This is a (small) risk which has to be
kept in mind when evaluating this project, since it is not clear to date whether land use change and forestry projects will be accepted under the
CDM. However, if projects increasing the efficiency of wood fuel use should be ruled out by the CDM, many of the most sensible projects in
Africa will be ruled out. Wood remains to be the prime energy base in rural Africa and the increased efficiency of fuel wood use is a major
developmental requirement.
Zimbabwe NSS Report
77
Item Please fill in if applicable
Location (exact, e.g. city, region,
state):
Communal and resettlement farming areas in Zimbabwe
Activity starting date: 01/01/2002 (or earlier)
Expected activity ending date: 31/12/2012
Stage of activity Project option and project partners are identified, first assessment of project
potential is completed.
Lifetime of activity if different
from ending date:
-
Technical data: Energy efficiency improvements of 55% are expected by installing slot furnaces
in tobacco curing barns and by further minor improvements (which aim to
increase the yield of the produced heat by improving the air circulation within
the tobacco barns)
a) For example, using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) classification: energy efficiency; renew-
able energy; fuel switching; forest preservation, restoration or reforestation; afforestation; fugitive gas capture;
industrial processes; solvents; agriculture; waste disposal or bunker fuels.
Describe existing work on the project:
A.4 Cost (to the extent possible)
CDM Project Baseline
Total Investment 1999 Z$ 15'000’000
(3'000 per annum
during the initial 5
years of the project)
0
Operation and maintenance p.a. 1999 Z$/yr. 1’000’000 0
Incremental total investment 1999 Z$/yr. 15'000'000 0
Incremental operation and maintenance p.a. 1999 Z$/yr. 1'000'000 0
Project life years 11 0
Discount rate % 10 not applicable
NPV of total project 1999 Z$ - 19'650'000 not applicable
GHG reduction p.a.(see details in Section E) t CO2 eq/yr. 11'000-53’000 not applicable
Unit abatement cost 1999 Z$/t CO2 82.67 not applicable
Unit abatement cost 1999 US$/t CO2 2.18 not applicable
Exchange rate July 1999: 1 US$ = 38 Z$
Assumptions of Cost Estimates
It is assumed that the costs of improving the efficiency of tobacco barns is Z$ 5000 / barn. This cost takes
into account that farmers contribute to the improvement of their barns. Furthermore we assume annual
costs for the extension work of Z$ 1'000'000. These costs will have to borne during the total life time of the
project to ensure that the efficiency improvement is maintained during the whole period.
For the calculation of the NPV, all cash flows (both from investments and maintenance costs) are dis-
counted. In order to calculate the costs per ton CO2 reduction, also the cash flows resulting from the sale
of CO2 credits are discounted.
A.5 Mutually agreed assessment procedures:
Not applicable to projects of NSS pipeline
B. Governmental acceptance, approval or endorsement
Zimbabwe NSS Report
78
Not applicable to projects of NSS pipeline
C. Compatibility with and supportiveness of national economic development and socio-
economic and environment priorities and strategies.
Describe (to the extent possible) how the activity is compatible with and supportive of national economic
development and socio-economic and environment priorities and strategies
Tobacco is one of the major sources of income for Zimbabwe. Increased production is expected in the years to come.
This project targets small-scale tobacco farmers in resettlement areas who are a priority group within Zimbabwe's
development strategy. Through the CDM project tobacco can be grown and cured using less wood thereby reducing
deforestation and environmental degradation.
D. Benefits derived from the activities implemented jointly project
Whenever possible, quantitative information should be provided. Failing that, a qualitative description
should be given. If quantitative information becomes available, it could be submitted using the update(s).
(If the amount of quantitative information is too large, the source could be indicated.)
Item Please fill in
Describe local environmental
benefits (excluding benefits for
global climate; see Section E) in
detail:
Small scale farmers will use less wood to cure tobacco, thereby reducing
deforestation and maintaining the biodiversity of the Miombo forests. Fur-
thermore, forest protection reduces soil loss and enhances watershed services
provided by the forest.
Describe local social/cultural
benefits in detail:
Less time will be spent harvesting wood since small amounts will be required
per cure. The surrounding Miombo forests will be maintained.
Describe local economic benefits in
detail:
Less time will be spent harvesting wood since small amounts will be required
per cure.
E. Calculation of the contribution of activities implemented jointly projects that bring about real,
measurable and long-term environmental benefits related to the mitigation of climate change
that would not have occurred in the absence of such activities
E.1 Estimated emissions without the activity (project baseline):
In the resettlement areas of Zimbabwe, small-scale tobacco producers use wood for curing tobacco. The
wood is harvested in a non-sustainable manner and use of wood thus causes net-CO2 emissions. Cur-
rently, some of the wood cut from land, which is put into agricultural production. But it is only a matter
of time until these resources will have been exhausted and woodlands will be cleared solely for wood
required is for tobacco curing. Furthermore, the number of small-scale farmers who engage in tobacco
production is increasing rapidly, but in our baseline calculations we assume that the number of farmers
curing tobacco will remain constant – we thus use a very conservative baseline.
Communal farmers produce approximately 6 million kg of tobacco per year out of the projected
280million kg (Masuka,1999). About 1000kg of tobacco requires 14.5m
3
of wood for curing (Brooker,
1995). At least 90% of the tobacco (5.4million kg) from small-scale farms is cured using wood (Flower)
and we assume that 95% of the wood is non-sustainably harvested. This causes biomass loss and thus net
CO2 emissions.
The following factors were used in the calculations
– conversion factor from m
3
to t wood biomass 0.7 [t/m
3
]
– conversion factor wood tons biomass to tons carbon 0.5 [t/t]
– conversion factor from tons carbon tC to CO2 3.67 [t/t]
Zimbabwe NSS Report
79
Calculation of baseline annual CO2 emissions
– Total quantity of tobacco produced by small-scale farmers 6'000’000 kg
– Tobacco cured using wood 5'400'000 kg

Wood used by small scale farmers: (5400000*14.5/1000) 78’300 m
3
– Wood unsustainably harvested to cure tobacco 74’385 m
3
– Wood biomass in tons 52’069 t
– Carbon loss 26’034 tC
Annual CO2 emissions 96’325tCO2
E.2 Estimated emissions with the activity:
At the end of the project, CO2 emissions will be reduced by 55%. During the investment phase, each year
20% of the final goal is attained. The table summarises the CO2 effect of the project over the whole project
life time of 10 years.
Summary Table: Projected emission reductions
Year '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 total
A) Project baseline
scenario
(in 1000 t CO2)
96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 960
B) Project activity
scenario
(in 1000 t CO2)
85 75 64 54 43 43 43 43 43 43 536
C) Effect ( A-B )
(in 1000 t CO2)
11 21 32 42 53 53 53 53 53 53 424
Summary Table: Projected emission reductions
GHG Unit Emission per year Total emission over project life
A) Project baseline
scenario
CO2
CH4
N2O
other
total
t
t
t
t
t CO2 eq.
96’000 960’000
960’000
B) Project activity
scenarioa)
CO2
CH4
N2O
other
total
t
t
t
t
t CO2 eq.
85'000 – 43'000
(depending on year)
85'000 – 43’000
536’000
536’000
A-B CO2
CH4
N2O
other
total
T
t
t
t
t CO2 eq.
45 482
45 482
424’000
424’000
Zimbabwe NSS Report
80
Summary Table: Actual emission reductions
Not applicable, since project was not yet implemented
Summary Table: Actual emission reductions
Not applicable, since project was not yet implemented
F. Bearing in mind that the financing of activities implemented jointly shall be additional to
financial obligations of Parties included in Annex II to the Convention within the framework
of the financial mechanism as well as to current official development assistance flows, please
indicate:
Source of project funding including pre-feasibility
phase (for each source one line)
Amount
(1999 Z$)
Amount
(1999 US$)
(leave blank if funding has not been agreed yet)
G. Contribution to capacity building, transfer of environmentally sound technologies and know-
how to other Parties, particularly developing country Parties, to enable them to implement the
provisions of the Convention. In this process, the developed country Parties shall support the
development and enhancement of endogenous capacities and technologies of developing
country Parties.
Describe briefly the transfer of environmentally sound technology and know-how including where appropriate the
type of technology, terms, education, capacity building etc.:
The project should assist in changing the traditional way of doing things by broadening the responsibility
and focus of project personnel by removing elements that discourage them from being concerned with
sustainability.
Incentives that motivate project personnel to adopt the project should be established.
The project should make the local people an integral part of planning and implementation for all new
activities. Continuity should be secured through participation of the project beneficiaries. Beneficiaries
should adapt the project technology and institutions to their own needs and begin to initiate their own.
The project should encourage institutional linkages between all tobacco farmers in the country as well as
providing training in the improved technology.
All the positive impacts of the projects should be communicated to the project beneficiaries.
H. Additional comments, if any, including any practical experience gained or technical
difficulties, effects, impacts or other obstacles encountered.
Not applicable, since project is not yet implemented
Zimbabwe NSS Report
81
PROJECT 3    SEWAGE GAS POWER
A. Description of project
A.1 Title of project: Power generation from gas produced in sewage plant
A.2 Participants/actors:
Item Please fill in if applicable
Name of organization
a)
:
Name of organization (English): Crowborough Works City of Harare
Department: Sewage
Acronym: City Sewage
Acronym (English): City Sewage
Function within activity: (standard classifiers to be developed)
Street:
Post code: Box 683
City: Harare
Country: Zimbabwe
Telephone: +263 4 698633
Fax:
E-mail:
WWW-URL:
Contact person (for this activity): -------------------------------------
Surname: Manhambara
First name, middle name:
Job title: Superintendent
Direct tel:
Direct fax:
Direct E-mail:
Item Please fill in if applicable
Name of organization
a)
:
Name of organization (English):
Department:
Acronym:
Acronym (English):
Function within activity: (standard classifiers to be developed)
Street:
Post code:
City:
Country: Zimbabwe
Telephone:
Fax:
E-mail:
WWW-URL:
Contact person (for this activity): -------------------------------------
Surname: Corri
First name, middle name: David
Job title: Consultant
Direct tel: +263 4 620434 Mobile +263 11 606 154
Direct fax: + 263 4 860143
Direct E-mail: david_corri@hotmail.com
Zimbabwe NSS Report
82
a) Organisation includes: institutions, ministries, companies, non-governmental organisations, etc. involved in the
activity, i.e. research institutes associated with the project, auditors, government agency closely following the
activity.
A.3 Activity:
Item Please fill in if applicable
General description –AIJ/CDM
project:
Installation of three gas engine generator sets fueled by Methane from 3 sewage
plants will provide heat and 150 kWe of electricity. Cover and piping of sewage
gas is already installed.
It is assumed that the power is used in the sewage plant itself. This reduces
consumption of power from the grid.
Uncertainties, risks, gaps:
• A continuous production of Sewage gas at the site is an important precon-
dition for an efficient engine operation.
• Sewage plant seems overloaded at the time. This might endanger the gas
production at the site.
• Engine operation and maintenance must be assured by proper training of
operators
Type of project:
a)
Fugitive Gas Capture
Location (exact, e.g. city, region,
state):
Crowborough Works City of Harare, Zimbabwe
2
Activity starting date: 2002 (estimate)
Expected activity ending date: 2012
Stage of activity:
b)
Feasibility
Lifetime of activity if different
from ending date:
c)
10yr
Technical data:
d)
3 gas engine generator sets with 150kWe each.
a) For example, using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) classification: energy efficiency; renewable energy;
fuel switching; forest preservation, restoration or reforestation; afforestation; fugitive gas capture; industrial processes;
solvents; agriculture; waste disposal or bunker fuels.
b) Circle the appropriate option.
c) Methodological work will be required to define lifetime of activities.
d) Methodological work will be required to determine for each type of activity what the minimum data requirements are.:
A.4 Cost (to the extent possible):
Project:
Sewage Plant Gas Utilisation
CDM Project Baseline
Total investment 1999Zim$ 15'200'000 0
Project life Year 10 years
Discount rate % 15 %
Levelized investment 1999 3'028'631 0
Value of electricity generated 1999 -- --
Operation and maintenance p.a. 1999 3'040'000 --
Total levelized cost p.a. 1999 4'662'284
Incremental cost p.a. 1999 4'662'284 n. a.
GHG reductions p.a. T CO2 15'958 n. a.
Unit abatement cost 1999 Zim$/t 292.2 n. a.
Unit abatement cost 1999 US$/t 7.7 n. a.

2
Other sewage gas projects could be implemented in the File Plant Works City of Harare or in the cities of Bulawayo, Gweru, or Mutare. The
Crowborough plant has been chosen because of data availability.
Zimbabwe NSS Report
83
Describe briefly how costs are determined:
• Investments (400’000US$) and O&M costs (80’000US$) estimated based on a similar project in
Switzerland by Ernst Basler + Partners (at 1US$ = 38 Zim$ 1999)
• Efficiency of gen-set is estimated at modest 30%. This leads to 3750MWhe per year.
• Electricity price of 0.375 Zim$/kWh (0.01 US$/kWh) is very low. Price might increase in the fu-
ture which would make the project more profitable: Assuming a price of 0.03US$/kWh, the unit
abatement costs are reduced to 2.9US$/tCO2 equivalent.
A.5 Mutually agreed assessment procedures:
Not applicable to projects of NSS pipeline at the current stage
B. Governmental acceptance, approval or endorsement
Not applicable to projects of NSS pipeline at the current stage
C. Compatibility with and supportiveness of national economic development and socio-
economic and environment priorities
Describe (to the extent possible) how the activity is compatible with and supportive of national economic
development and socio-economic and environment priorities and strategies
– Zimbabwe has an active renewable energy program, which supports the development and utilisation of
renewable energy for sustainable development. The President of Zimbabwe is the current chairman of the
World Solar Commission.
– There is need for a significant number of renewable energy projects in Zimbabwe.
– The domestic clean energy production will make the City Works sewage plant at Crowborough less dependent
from the reliability of power supply from the grid.
– There is a large replication potential in the File Plant Works, City of Harare or in sewage plants in the cities of
Bulawayo, Gweru, or Mutare.
D. Benefits derived from the activities implemented jointly project
Whenever possible, quantitative information should be provided. Failing that, a qualitative description should be
given.
Item Please fill in
Describe local environmental benefits (excluding
benefits for global climate; see Section E) in
detail:
Capture the fugitive Methane gas from Municipal Sewage
Treatment Plants and convert it into useable power and reduce it
to CO2
Describe local social/cultural benefits in detail: Sewage plant is part of public works of the city.
Describe local economic benefits in detail: There should be a benefit deriving from the use of a waste
resource.
E. Calculation of the contribution of activities implemented jointly projects that bring about real,
measurable and long-term environmental benefits related to the mitigation of climate change
that would not have occurred in the absence of such activities
E.1 Estimated emissions without the activity (project baseline):
Baseline is the current state of operation of the Crowborough Works City of Harare. From 5096 cubic
metres of sewage gas produced per day, 3663 cubic metres are emitted directly to the atmosphere, 1433
cubic metres are used in boilers. Other assumptions:
Zimbabwe NSS Report
84
• Sewage gas contains 65% Methane, 35%CO2. Methane content might be higher.
• Greenhouse Warming Potential of Methane is 23.
• Electricity which is generated by gas engine generator set in the project activity case is produced
by coal power plant in the baseline case at 0.95 t CO2 /MWhe.
E.2 Estimated emissions with the activity:
With the activity, all sewage gas is used in 3 gas engine generator sets which produce a total of
3750MWhe/yr and heat. Assumptions:
• The heat produced by the gen-set replaces the heat produced by the boilers in the baseline case.
• Low heating value of methane is 37.71MJ/m3.
• Efficiency of gen-set is 30% (might be higher in reality).
• Crediting time assumed is 10 years
Summary Table: Projected emission reductions
GHG Unit Emission per year
Total emission over project life
A) Project baseline
scenario
CO2
CH4
N2O
other
total
t
t CO2 Eq.
t CO2 Eq.
t CO2 Eq.
t CO2 Eq.
5483
14082
54830
140820
B) Project activity
scenario)
CO2
CH4
N2O
other
total
t
t CO2 Eq.
t CO2 Eq.
t CO2 Eq.
t CO2 Eq.
3606
0
36060
0
C) Effect ( A-B ) CO2
CH4
N2O
other
total
T
t CO2 Eq.
t CO2 Eq.
t CO2 Eq.
t CO2 Eq. 15958 159580
Summary Table: Actual emission reductions
Not applicable, since project was not yet implemented
F. Bearing in mind that the financing of activities implemented jointly shall be additional to
financial obligations of Parties included in Annex II to the Convention within the framework
of the financial mechanism as well as to current official development assistance flows, please
indicate:
Source of project funding
including pre-feasibility phase
(for each source one line)
Amount
(1999 Z$)
Amount
(1999 US$)
(leave blank if funding has not been agreed yet)
G. Contribution to capacity building, transfer of environmentally sound technologies and know-
how to other Parties, particularly developing country Parties, to enable them to implement the
provisions of the Convention. In this process, the developed country Parties shall support the
development and enhancement of endogenous capacities and technologies of developing
country Parties.
Zimbabwe NSS Report
85
Describe briefly the transfer of environmentally sound technology and know-how including where appropriate the
type of technology, terms, education, capacity building etc.
H. Additional comments, if any, including any practical experience gained or technical
difficulties, effects, impacts or other obstacles encountered.
Not applicable, since project was not yet implemented
Zimbabwe NSS Report
86
PROJECT 4    BOILER EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT
A. Description of Project
A.1 Title of project: Boiler Efficiency Improvement
A.2 Participants/actors:
Item Please fill in if applicable
Name of organisation
a)
: Cochrane Engineering (pvt) ltd
Name of organisation (English): Same
Department: Technical
Function within activity: Manufacturer of Steam Boilers
Street: Tilbury Road,
Post code: P.O.Box ST 361, Southerton.
City: Harare
Country: Zimbabwe
Telephone: 263-4-611611
Fax: 263-4-611619
E-mail: cochrane@harare.iafrica.com
Contact person (for this activity): See below
Surname: Ndlovu
First name, middle name: Fidelis
Job title: Technical Manager
Direct tel: 263-4-611621
Direct fax: 263-4-611610
Direct E-mail: Cochrane@harare.iafrica.com
Item Please fill in if applicable
Name of organisation
a)
: Ministry of Mines,Environment,and Tourism
Name of organisation (English): Same
Department: Climate Change Office
Function within activity: Government Contact, Zimbabwe
Street: Nyerere street
Post code: P.Bag 7753 , Causeway
City: Harare
Country: Zimbabwe
Telephone: 263-4-757 881
Fax: 263-4-757 006
E-mail: Climate@harare.iafrica.com
WWW-URL: -
Contact person (for this activity): See below
Surname: Sangarwe
First name, middle name: Margaret
Job title: Under Secretary
Direct tel: 263-4-757 880
Item Please fill in if applicable
Name of organisation
a)
: Matema & Associates
Department: -
Function within activity: Consulting
Street: Ashburton Avenue
Post code: 16 Ashburton Avenue
Zimbabwe NSS Report
87
City: Harare
Country: Zimbabwe
Telephone: 263-4-573258
Fax: 263-4-752214
E-mail: Smatema@internet.co.zw
Contact person (for this activity): See below
Surname: Matema
First name, middle name: Stephen
Job title: Consultant
Direct tel: 263-4-573258
Direct fax: 263-4-752214
Direct E-mail: Smatema@internet.co.zw
A.3 Activity:
Item Please fill in if applicable
General description: Project aims to replace inefficient steam boilers in operation in Zimbabwe. There
are about 700 boilers currently in operation in Zimbabwe with the majority in
food process industries, laundries and metal process industries. In size, they
range from as small as 30kg of steam per hour to as large as 20000 Kg of steam
per hour. The most common unit is the 2000 kg steam per hour.
Type of project:
a)
Energy Efficiency
Location (exact, e.g. city, region,
state):
Throughout Zimbabwe
Activity starting date: Not decided
Expected activity ending date: Ten year activity period
Stage of activity:
b)
Project option identified
Lifetime of activity if different
from ending date:
c)
10 years
Technical data:
d)
New boiler installation based on a 2 tonne unit with efficiency of 74 % an
improvement from the regular 50 % on most units in operation. The unit
consumes about 200 kg of coal per hour.
a) For example, using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) classification: energy efficiency; renew-
able energy; fuel switching; forest preservation, restoration or reforestation; afforestation; fugitive gas capture;
industrial processes; solvents; agriculture; waste disposal or bunker fuels.
A.4 Cost (to the extent possible):
CDM project Baseline
Total Investment
Project life
Discount rate
1999 Z$
years
%
3 400 000
10
15
-
10
15
Levelized Investment p.a.
Fuel costs p.a.
Operating & Maintenance cost p.a.
Total levelized cost p.a.
1999 Z$
1999 Z$
1999 Z$
1999 Z$
677457
1338624
34000
2050081
-
1981163
17000
1998163
Incremental cost p.a.
GHG reduction p.a.
Unit abatement cost
Unit abatement cost
1999 Z$
t CO2 eq.
1999 Z$/t CO2
1999 US $/t CO2
51918
1052
49.4
1.3
Exchange rate July 1999: 1 US $ = 38 Z$
Zimbabwe NSS Report
88
Description of how costs are determined: Investment cost for the 2 tonne unit was supplied by Manufac-
turer. Costs of operating fuel were estimated over the life of the project.
A.5 Mutually agreed assessment procedures:
Not applicable to projects of NSS pipeline
B. Governmental acceptance, approval or endorsement
Not applicable to projects of NSS pipeline
C. Compatibility with and supportiveness of national economic development and socio-
economic and environment priorities and strategies
Describe (to the extent possible) how the activity is compatible with and supportive of national economic
development and socio-economic and environment priorities and strategies
This project is consistent with National policy priorities in meeting the capital renewal of Zimbabwe’s industry.
Many of the country’s equipment and machinery is outdated and inefficient and requires replacement. It also meets
the criteria for environmental standards compliance.
D. Benefits derived from the activities implemented jointly project
Whenever possible, quantitative information should be provided. Failing that, a qualitative description
should be given. If quantitative information becomes available, it could be submitted using the update(s).
(If the amount of quantitative information is too large, the source could be indicated.)
Item Please fill in
Describe environmental benefits in detail: The more efficient boilers will not only reduce the quantities of CO2
generated but also SO2 and dust and thus create a cleaner working
environment.
Describe social/cultural benefits in detail:
Increased employment creation by the adoption of newer technology.
Both the manufacturer and the industries adopting the new units will
hire better skilled workers to operate the units.
Describe economic benefits in detail: The country stands to benefit economically in terms of: more fuel
efficiency, better skills to workers etc.
E. Calculation of the contribution of activities implemented jointly projects that bring about real,
measurable and long-term environmental benefits related to the mitigation of climate change
that would not have occurred in the absence of such activities
E.1 Estimated emissions without the activity (project baseline):
The base line situation entails the existing situation in the country. Old boilers of low energy efficiency
will continue to run in the country.
E.2 Estimated emissions with the activity:
The adoption of the project will mean a programmed replacement of old boiler units by the more efficient
ones resulting in operating cost savings.
Fill in the tables on the following page as applicable:
Zimbabwe NSS Report
89
Summary Table: Projected emission reductions based on ONE BOILER UNIT
GHG Unit Emission p.a Total emission over project life
A) Project baseline
scenario
CO2
CH4
N2O
Total
Tonne
Tonne
Tonne
t CO2 eq.
2834.5
0.045
0.090
2864.4
28345
0.45
0.90
28644
B) Project activity
scenarioa)
CO2
CH4
N2O
Total
Tonne
Tonne
Tonne
T CO2 eq.
1794.0
0.028
0.057
1812.9
17940
0.28
0.57
18129
C) Effect ( A-B ) CO2
CH4
N2O
Total
Tonne
Tonne
Tonne
T CO2 eq.
1040.5
0.016
0.033
1051.5
10405
0.16
0.33
10515
F. Bearing in mind that the financing of activities implemented jointly shall be additional to
financial obligations of Parties included in Annex II to the Convention within the framework
of the financial mechanism as well as to current official development assistance flows, please
indicate:
Source of project funding including pre-feasibility
phase (for each source one line)
Amount
(1999 Z$)
Amount
( 1999 US $ )
Not yet determined - -
G. Contribution to capacity building, transfer of environmentally sound technologies and know-
how to other Parties, particularly developing country Parties, to enable them to implement the
provisions of the Convention. In this process, the developed country Parties shall support the
development and enhancement of endogenous capacities and technologies of developing
country Parties.
Describe briefly the transfer of environmentally sound technology and know-how including where appropriate the
type of technology, terms, education, capacity building etc.
H. Additional comments, if any, including any practical experience gained or technical
difficulties, effects, impacts or other obstacles encountered.
Zimbabwe NSS Report
90
PROJECT 5    COAL BED METHANE
A. Description of project
A.1 Title of Project: Ammonia Produced From Coal-bed Methane
A.2 Participants/actors:
Item Please fill in if applicable
Name of organisation
a)
: Sable Chemicals Ltd.
Function within activity:
Street:
Post code:
City: Harare
Country: Zimbabwe
Contact person (for this activity): -------------------------------------
Surname:
First name, middle name:
Job title:
Direct tel:
Direct fax:
Direct E-mail:
Item Please fill in if applicable
Name of organisation
a)
: ZIMASCO Pvt. Ltd.
Function within activity: Project partner (methane wells development)
Street: 6th floor Pegasus House, Samora Machel Ave
Post code: PO Box 3110
City: Harare
Country: Zimbabwe
Contact person (for this activity): -------------------------------------
Surname: Mr. Jena
First name, middle name: Sidney
Job title: Managing Director
Direct tel: 263 4 739 622
Direct fax: 263 4 707 758
Direct E-mail: jenas@harare.zimasco.gaia.co.zw
Item Please fill in if applicable
Name of organisation
a)
: Ministry of Mines, Environment and Tourism
Department: Climate Change Office
Function within activity: Government Contact, Zimbabwe
Street: Nyerere Street
Post code: P Bag 7753 Causeway
City: Harare
Country: Zimbabwe
Telephone: 263 4 757 881 1/5
Fax: 263 4 757 006
E-mail: climate@harare.iafrica.com
Contact person (for this activity): -------------------------------------
Surname: Sangarwe
First name, middle name: Margaret
Job title: Under Secretary
Direct tel: 263 4 757 880
Zimbabwe NSS Report
91
A.3 Activity:
Item Please fill in if applicable
General description - AIJ/CDM
project
Production of ammonia (NH3) using coal bed methane instead of hydrogen
derived from water electrolysis. The methane is to be extracted from coal seams
which are not used for coal production (i.e., no capturing of vented methane).
Project elements:
installation of a second-hand methane based ammonia plant
development of the methane well field (Save Basin)
Today, ammonia is produced at the Sable Fertilizer Plant. In the project,
ammonia will be produced at the well field and transported to the fertilizer
plant by rail.
Uncertainties, risks, gaps:
Size of methane reserves remains to be assessed in detail by an independent
entity.
General description - project
baseline (reference scenario)
The project baseline assumes that ammonia will be produced using hydrogen
derived from water electrolysis, as it is done today. The electricity required is
produced in a coal-fired power station.
Type of project:
a)
industrial processes
Location (exact, e.g. city, region,
state):
location of new ammonia plant to be determined
Activity starting date: earliest possible date to be determined
Expected activity ending date: to be determined
Stage of activity:
b
pre-feasibility studies carried out
Lifetime of activity if different
from
ending date:
approx. 15 years (=technical life of installations)
Technical data: Amount of ammonia produced: 31’200 t/a
Power capacity required: 3.67 MWe (project), 111 MWe (baseline)
Power consumption project: 814 kWh/t NH3, or 91 TJ/a; baseline: 2’781 TJ/a;
electricity saved 2’690 TJ/a
a) For example, using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) classification: energy efficiency; renew-
able energy; fuel switching; forest preservation, restoration or reforestation; afforestation; fugitive gas capture;
industrial processes; solvents; agriculture; waste disposal or bunker fuels.
Describe existing work on the project:
In 1991 and 1993, the possibility of retrofitting the existing electrolysis-based ammonia plant with meth-
ane from Zimbabwean coal seams was investigated in two comprehensive studies:
08/1993: Status report on coal bed methane and anhydrous ammonia development (63 pages)
12/1993: Financial analysis - retrofitting and upgrading of Sable ammonia facility (60 pages)
Reports were prepared by C.D. Wall Chemical Engineering (PVT) Ltd., Harare, on behalf of Afpen
Resources. Feasibility of three main project elements was investigated:
• coal bed methane wellfield in Zimbabwe
• 300 km pipeline to the Sable ammonia plant
• retrofit and upgrade of Sable fertiliser plant (use of methane instead of electrolysis for ammonia
production)
All three elements were found to be economically viable (IRR up to 12%). Retrofit of the ammonia plant
with coal bed methane was found to be more attractive (higher IRR) than the existing situation where
ammonia is mostly produced by means of water electrolysis, the remainder being imported from South
Zimbabwe NSS Report
92
Africa. Using Zimbabwean methane also appeared superior to two other alternatives, methane imports
from Mozambique fields, and coal gasification.
In a later study on behalf of Afpenn, installation of a second-hand US ammonia plant at the wellfield was
investigated. Emission and cost values presented below are based on this latter report (i.e., no methane
pipeline is included), and on calculations prepared by the Southern Centre, Harare.
Other potential uses of coal bed methane were investigated in separate studies:
04/1991: Afpen exploration - coal bed methane module 2: the production of methanol (50 pages).
A.4 Cost (to the extent possible):
CDM Project Baseline
Total Investment 1999 Z$ 511’000’000 0
Project life years 15
Discount rate % 15%
Levelized investment 1999 Z$ 87'400'000 0
Operation and maintenance p.a. 1999 Z$/yr. 51'100'000 -3'000'000
Fuel p.a. (only electricity) 1999 Z$/yr. 35'300'000 1'075'000'000
Total levelized cost p.a. 1999 Z$/yr. 173'800'000 1'072'000'000
Incremental cost p.a. 1999 Z$/yr. -898'200'000 not applicable
GHG reduction p.a. (see details in Section E) t CO2Eq/yr. 800'000 not applicable
Unit abatement cost 1999 Z$/t CO2 -1'123 not applicable
Unit abatement cost 1999 US$/t CO2 -30 not applicable
Describe briefly how costs are determined; specify key assumptions.
The project investment includes the price of the second-hand ammonia plant, its installation, and the cost
of the methane wellfield development (to be verified).
O&M of the project is estimated at 10% of the investment. O&M of the baseline includes about 100'000 Z$
yearly costs, and about 3'120'000 Z$ returns from byproduct sales (78'000 tons of oxygen at 40 Z$/t O2).
Fuel costs are based on electricity consumption (91,45 TJ/a and 2'781 TJ/a for project and baseline,
respectively) at an average generation price of 1.39 Z$/kWhe (coal-fired plant).
Exchange rate July 1999: 1 US$ = 38 Z$
A.5 Mutually agreed assessment procedures:
Not applicable to projects of NSS pipeline at the current stage
B. Governmental acceptance, approval or endorsement
Not applicable to projects of NSS pipelinet at the current stage
C Compatibility with and supportiveness of national economic development and socio-
economic and environment priorities and
Zimbabwe NSS Report
93
Describe (to the extent possible) how the activity is compatible with and supportive of national economic
development and socio-economic and environment priorities and strategies
Generally, the project appears to be compatible with national development strategies, since it yields local environ-
mental and economic benefits:
– reduced electricity consumption in the Sable ammonia plant (savings up to 100 MW / 2800 TJ), and therefore,
reduced environmental impacts associated with coal-based power generation, and reduced need to expand
domestic power production or to import power from abroad (improved import-export balance)
– improved economic viability of Sable ammonia plant. Today, the plant is indirectly subsized by the Government
by means of special low electricity tariffs
– increased utilisation of domestic energy resources; employment in methane production and transfer technology
and know-how transfer (no coal bed methane is produced in Zimbabwe today)
– potential to expand methane utilisation at a later stage, e.g. methanol production for use in transport (substitu-
tion of imported liquid fuels), or direct use of methane as a fuel
Detailed criteria for local economic, socio-economic and environmental assessment of CDM projects remain to be
defined.
D. Benefits derived from the activities implemented jointly project
Whenever possible, quantitative information should be provided. Failing that, a qualitative description should be
given.
Item Please fill in
Describe local environmental benefits (excluding benefits
for global climate; see Section E) in detail:
not been studied in detail
Describe local social/cultural benefits in detail: not been studied in detail
Describe local economic benefits in detail: Studies conducted in early 90ies found significant
economic benefits of the project. Results remain to be
updated according to latest developments.
E. Calculation of the contribution of activities implemented jointly projects that bring about real,
measurable and long-term environmental benefits related to the mitigation of climate change
that would not have occurred in the absence of such activities
E.1 Estimated emissions without the activity (project baseline):
The baseline scenario is based on the following assumptions:
– the current hydrolysis-based ammonia production is maintained (31'200 t NH3/yr)
– power production in a coal-fired plant: power consumption 2'781 TJe/yr; transfer losses 12%; coal to
power conversion efficiency 35%; fuel emission factor 95 t CO2/TJe (overall emission factor 1'110 t
CO2/TJe consumed)
The baseline is a plausible reference scenario because the project is at present confronted with three main
barriers:
– lack of investment capital of the owner of the ammonia plant;
– lack of experience of the local mining companies with coal bed methane production, exact size of
methane reserves still uncertain;
– coal seams are not planned to be mined after methane production, because the coal is of rather low
grade. This is a rare, or even unique, situation world-wide: Usually, coal bed methane is produced
in conjunction with coal mining, because it reduces the safety risks associated with high methane
contents. This lack of synergy with coal production renders coal bed methane production in the
Save Basin less competitive, compared with coal bed methane reserves in other regions.
Due to these barriers, the project is unlikely to be implemented in the short to mid-term under non-CDM
conditions. Other project alternatives, such as methane production from coal gasification or methane
Zimbabwe NSS Report
94
import from Mozambique wellfields, were found to be far less economically viable than the project, and
are therefore not plausible reference scenarios. In conclusion, CO2 emission reductions associated with the
project can be assumed not to occur in the absence of the project over the project lifetime of 10 to 15 years
(i.e., emission reductions are additional).
E.2 Estimated emissions with the activity:
The project scenario is based on the following assumptions:
– same ammonia production as in baseline
– power consumption 91 TJe/yr at 1'110 t CO2/TJe
– ammonia production leads to CO2 emissions of 0.971 t CO2/t NH3 according to Haber Bosch proc-
ess:
3 CH4 + 6 H2O → 3 CO2 + 12 H2
4 N2 + 12 H2 → 8 NH3
– emissions of other GHG (CH4, N2O etc.) are negligible project life is assumed as 15 years
Summary Table: Projected emission reductions
GHG Unit Emission per year Total emission over project life
A) Project baseline
scenario
CO
2
CH4
N2O
other
total
t
t
t
t
t CO
2
Eq.
858'000 12'870'000
B) Project activity
scenario
a)
CO
2
CH4
N2O
other
total
t
t
t
t
t CO
2
Eq.
58'000 870'000
C) Effect ( A-B ) CO
2
CH4
N2O
other
total
T
t
t
t
t CO
2
eq.
800'000 12'000'000
Summary Table: Actual emission reductions
Not applicable, since project was not yet implemented
F. Bearing in mind that the financing of activities implemented jointly shall be additional to
financial obligations of Parties included in Annex II to the Convention within the framework
of the financial mechanism as well as to current official development assistance flows, please
indicate:
Source of project funding
including pre-feasibility phase
(for each source one line)
Amount
(1999 Z$)
Amount
(1999 US$)
(leave blank if funding has not been agreed yet)
G. Contribution to capacity building, transfer of environmentally sound technologies and know-
how to other Parties, particularly developing country Parties, to enable them to implement the
Zimbabwe NSS Report
95
provisions of the Convention. In this process, the developed country Parties shall support the
development and enhancement of endogenous capacities and technologies of developing
country Parties.
Describe briefly the transfer of environmentally sound technology and know-how including where appropriate the
type of technology, terms, education, capacity building etc.
The project involves the following transfers of technology and know-how to Zimbabwe:
– coal bed methane production
– ammonia production from methane
H. Additional comments, if any, including any practical experience gained or technical
difficulties, effects, impacts or other obstacles encountered.
Not applicable, since project was not yet implemented
Zimbabwe NSS Report
96
REFERENCES
1. Adhoc International Working Group on the Clean Development Mechanism (1998) UNCTAD,
Geneva
2. Climate Change in the Global Economy: Policy Dialogues of the International Academy of the
Environment: Geneva, Switzerland
3. Central Statistics Office Annual Report, (1997)
4. Fecher, R. Matibe, K Mavhungu. J. and Simmonds G, 1998. The Clean Development
Mechanism: Key Issues for Southern Africa Paper presented at GLOBE Southern Africa
Conference Partnership for Sustainability 4-5 September 1998, Cape Town
5. Energy Sector Management Assistance Programme Report, no 8768- Zimbabwe, (1992)
6. Forestry Commission Report, (1997)
7. Greenhouse Gases for Zimbabwe, Ross and Touche Consultants, 1991
8. T. Forsyth, 1999. International Investment and Climate Change. Energy Technologies for
Developing Countries. Royal Institute of International Affairs.
9. M. Grubb, C. Vrolijk and Dr Brack , 1999. The Kyoto Protocol: A Guide and Assessment. Royal
Institute of International Affairs (1999)
10. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Guide Lines 1995-6
11. Janssen J. 1998, “Strategies for Risk Management of Joint Implementation Investment” in:
Reimer, P Smith, A. and K Thambinunthi (eds.) Greenhouse Gas Mitigation: Technologies for
Activities Implemented Jointly, Elsevier, 357-365
12. Kyoto Protocol (1997)
13. Donald R Larson and Paul Parks, 1999. Risks, Lessons Learned and Secondary Markets for
GHG Reductions. World Bank
14. Makarau, A and T. Ngara, 1998. Mitigation Study for Zimbabwe. Final Draft Report. Climate
Change Office, Ministry of Mines Environment and Tourism, Zimbabwe
16. S. Maya, 1998. Southern African Power Pool Study.
17. Michaelowa A. and Dutschke M, 1999. Interest Groups and Efficient Design of the CDM
Executive Board . Paper presented at the third session of the International Working on CDM
in Paris,(March 1999).
18. Michaelowa A. and Dutschke M, 1998. Creating and sharing of credits through the Clean
Development Mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol HWWA Discussion Paper 6, Hamburg
(1998).
19. Mullins F and Baron R, 1997. International GHG Emissions Trading, Policies and Measures for
Common Action; Working Paper 9;IEA/OECD; Paris
20. Zimbabwe’s Initial National Communication, 1998
21. More Employment by Ecological Management: An investigation for Germany, Switzerland
and Austria. Prognos: Cologne, 1999
22. SADC Financing Energy Use in Small Scale Enterprises Study (1998)
23. Southern Centre for Energy Environment Report (1999)
24. Southern Centre Report in Collaboration with JICA (1997)
25. Southern Centre / UNEP country Study Phase II (1993)
26. United Nations Development Programme Issues and Options. The Clean Development
Mechanism (1998)
27. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992)
28. Zimbabwe Electricity Supply Authority (1999)
29. ZESA Annual Report and Accounts (1997)
30. ZESA System Development Plan (1998)

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