March 10, 2014 To: Fr: Re: Interested Parties Anzalone Liszt Grove Research Summary of Likely 2014 Voters in Florida’s Second Congressional

District

Florida’s 2nd District is very competitive partisan territory and incumbent Steve Southerland shows an alarmingly high unfavorable rating and negative job performance rating. A double-digit plurality indicate a preference to replace Southerland with someone new and Gwen Graham is a candidate uniquely positioned to leverage this discontent into Election Day support. The race starts in a statistical dead-heat and shows unmistakable potential to move decisively in Graham’s direction as both campaigns engage in paid communication. If Graham’s current fundraising prowess continues, she will be very well prepared to actually deliver on the communication modeled in this survey. Florida’s 2nd District is fundamentally competitive political territory.  There is a five-point generic ballot preference for Democrats (41%) over Republicans (36%).  In the high-profile gubernatorial race, Democrat Charlie Crist leads Republican incumbent Rick Scott by three points (46% Crist / 43% Scott) – a similar margin to Democratic nominee Alex Sink’s advantage over Scott in the 2010 election.  Former Senator and Governor Bob Graham carried this part of the state in each of his statewide elections and FL-02 voters continue to hold him in high esteem. A better than 3:1 ratio give Graham a positive job rating for his service as Senator and Governor (57% Positive / 17% Negative). Steve Southerland’s unfavorable rating and negative job rating are indicative of an incumbent with serious political vulnerability.  Both Southerland’s personal popularity (42% Favorable / 38% Unfavorable) and job rating (46% Positive / 41% Negative) are only slightly above a 1:1 ratio – troubling numbers for an incumbent in such a competitive district.  Indeed, only slightly more than one-in-three voters indicate a desire to re-elect Southerland (36%), with almost half already preferring “someone new” (49%). The race is currently a dead-heat and shows a likelihood to break toward Graham as the campaign progresses.  The race starts within the margin of error (40% Graham / 42% Southerland), despite Southerland’s better than 2:1 name-identification advantage over first-time candidate Gwen Graham.  Among undecided voters (18% of electorate), more give Southerland a negative job rating (42%) than a positive job rating (35%).  After voters hear equal amounts of positive information about both candidates*, Graham takes a 9-point lead (50% Graham / 41% Southerland). This dramatic movement highlights the appeal of Gwen Graham’s biography and vision – and indicates Southerland may have a difficult time growing his existing support.
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research conducted N=500 live telephone interviews with likely 2014 voters in Florida’s Second Congressional District. Interviews were conducted between March 2-6, 2014. Respondents were selected at random, with interviews apportioned geographically based on past voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error is 4.4% with a 95% confidence level.

Candidate Profiles Tested: *Gwen Graham is a Democrat from Tallahassee and the daughter of former Senator Bob Graham. As a working mom, she served as the top negotiator for Leon County schools and brought parents, teachers, and administrators together to solve problems and put students first. She'll bring the same common-sense approach to Congress, where she's determined to work across party lines and create jobs by ending tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas and standing up for small business. Graham says she'll be an independent voice for North Florida who will work to create jobs, protect Medicare, and always put middle class families first. Steve Southerland, a Republican from Panama City, is the current member of Congress. As a former small business owner, he has created jobs in North Florida and knows how big government regulations make it harder for small businesses to grow. In Congress, he has been a strong fiscal conservative who believes in less government spending, smaller government, and lower taxes on job creators. He's also led the fight to pass a work requirement for able-bodied recipients of food stamps and has voted to repeal Obamacare. Southerland says he will continue standing up for freedom, individual responsibility, and strong traditional values.

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