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Flight MH 370 disaster 2014 March 08
What happened? Can we mitigate risks?
News etc. digested by Alister William Macintyre What we think we know so far about disaster incidents; progress of search, investigations; lessons learned but ignored; international problems with critical infrastructure management. Last updated 2014 Mar 14
Version 1.49

Table of Contents, allow up to level 4. Updates ....................................................................................................................... 2 Why I am doing this.................................................................................................... 2 Summary ......................................................................................................................... 3 Tags............................................................................................................................. 4 Chaotic Stories ................................................................................................................ 4 Heart of the Mystery ............................................................................................... 6 Fact Checking ............................................................................................................. 6 Story dimensions......................................................................................................... 7 2014 Mar 8 Asia Airliner goes missing .............................................................................. 7 Graphic Map: Flight path scheduled Region .......................................................... 8 Graphic Map: Flight Path Zoom closest nations..................................................... 9 Military detection systems ............................................................................................ 10 Graphic Maps: Malaysian military radar tracking MH370 to west ...................... 12 Graphic Map: Indian Ocean fuel range................................................................. 13 Many uncertainties........................................................................................................ 14 Missed opportunities................................................................................................. 17 Few certainties .......................................................................................................... 17 Aircraft maintenance communications ................................................................. 18 Fishermen find a raft............................................................................................. 18 Oil Rig worker witnesses plane crash ................................................................... 19 Info comes out, but slowly............................................................................................ 20 Graphic Chart: Nationalities in Passenger Manifest ............................................. 20 Deadly plane crash history............................................................................................ 21 Passengers and crew ..................................................................................................... 23 Many nations respond ................................................................................................... 24 Graphic Chart: International Search ..................................................................... 26 Graphic Map: Search area 3rd day after plane went missing ................................ 28 Graphic Map: some relevant place names ............................................................ 28 Disputes between nations are not interfering............................................................ 29 Private Enterprise also searching .............................................................................. 30

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Difficult sometimes to find a lost plane........................................................................ 31 Malaysian Press Conference ......................................................................................... 31 Debris in the water ........................................................................................................ 31 Graphic Map: Debris some locations.................................................................... 32 Singapore clue turns into dead end ........................................................................... 34 Vietnam armed forces discover clues ....................................................................... 34 Boeing 777 reputation................................................................................................... 35 Better Black Box technology may be a false hope ....................................................... 35 Stolen passports ............................................................................................................ 38 Interpol data base of stolen passports ................................................................... 38 Misunderstood Technology .......................................................................................... 40 Conspiracy Theories ..................................................................................................... 41 Science Fiction.......................................................................................................... 42 Time line ....................................................................................................................... 42 Graphic Map: How far plane could have traveled, without refueling .................. 45 Graphic Map: Debris found Mar-9 in Gulf of Thailand ....................................... 47 Graphic Map: Debris found Mar 9-10 around Vietnam ....................................... 48 Ways a plane can communicate to the ground.......................................................... 49 Investigative aid ............................................................................................................ 50 Investigating stolen passports ....................................................................................... 50 Investigators why plane mishap.................................................................................... 52 China ......................................................................................................................... 52 Disaster notes continued in more documents.................................................................... 52

Updates
This story is more confusing than most, for a longer time of confusion than most. I probably have misconceptions in these notes, which I correct as I find out about them, or someone brings something to my attention.

Why I am doing this
I am now semi retired. When I was working full time, I was a work a holic without time to investigate much of what was happening in the real world. One thing I always desired was to find out what the heck was happening behind the headlines. Now I have time to do that. One thing in the headlines is all these horrible disasters. I want to find out how they happened, and what we can learn from them, to do a better job of mitigation in the risks of them happening again. Thus, I have research notes on a number of different kinds of major risks facing our civilization. I periodically upload my latest notes versions to various Internet document share sites, for the benefit of my friends, and other people who share my interests. I am an amateur at research, but I am careful to try to cite all sources for material I use, except sometimes from TV news, I flip channels then lose track of from which station I

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got which particulars. Also, current events remind me of events a few years ago, where I know stuff, but no longer remember where I got what I now know. As my research notes grow in sophistication, I share both DOC version (links generally work better) and PDF version (smaller, easier to copy). Ideally after I figure out what the heck happened, I also then want to figure out how our civilization can do a better job mitigating against risk or something like this happening again, or to make sure that it can be handled much better, with less people harmed, less monetary damage. Sometimes the nature of the disaster, the response, the audits, etc. are such that such logical conclusions are not yet practical.

Summary

It is a tragedy.

A plane is lost at sea, and no one can tell the families of the victims anything meaningful. It is bad enough to lose a loved one. It is much worse when you go for a long time not knowing what happened to them.1

It is confusing.

Contributing to the confusion is not knowing where the plane is, or how it got there. There are many speculations, and there are many clues which tend to contradict many of the speculations. There are a growing number of nations involved in the search, each finding clues to pursue, most later turn out to be false leads. Some nations say they have some clue, don’t divulge how they got such info. Then there are the technical details of the air transport industry, with words which may have different implications to journalists and readers than to professionals in that industry. 2 People who try to simplify the story, to try to make it easier to understand, can end up distorting it.

It is a mystery.

The plane was on several radar screens, civilian and military, of several nations, then it loses its transponder. Air Traffic Control gets another plane nearby to contact them on the radio, but all that’s heard is static and mumbling. Many nations rush search aircraft and ships to the area, they find clues, but no definitive identification of where the plane is now.

We have tons of unanswered questions.
Why did Malaysia decide it was more important to keep their military radar data a secret, than to find the missing plane? How much experience do these other nations have with doing a competent investigation, and communicate clarity of findings, compared to NTSB? Which news media has good quality coverage of this event, and which are unreliable? Here’s what we know so far. As I see more info, I will update my notes & periodically upload revised editions.
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http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-14/malaysia-airlines-face-compensation-claims/5321610 http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/13/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-questions/

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As usual, after any disaster without good explanations, there is a chorus of voices denying various possibilities. • “A plane cannot disappear” some say. Untrue, o Air France 447 disappeared over the Atlantic in 2009, was not found for 2 years. o Remember Amelia Earheart, Glenn Miller, Bermuda Triangle?3 • “The transponder signal was lost, and it disappeared from radar, so it must have crashed”, say others. Not necessarily. Remember 9 -11? Hijackers turned off transponders, and Air Traffic Control lost track of where some planes now located. • “Malaysia Airlines gave out false information, so they must be trying to cover something up”, say others. That’s pure speculation. It is not unusual in the aftermath of any disaster, for authorities to not know what the heck is going on, and in their desire to tell the public about the situation, they include what they personally think they know, but have not yet verified, because they have no competence in verifying rumors. Remember 9/11? Immediately afterwards many US leaders said that the notion of a plane hijacked to fly into some building, was unthinkable. They said no one could ever have imagined that possibility, and thus no one could ever organize any defense against it. Well they were ignorant. I knew about the incident where an Air France was hijacked and the crew ordered to fly it into the Eiffel Tower, but even with guns to the heads of pilot, co-pilot, and other crew, they refused to do so. An obvious lesson from this was that terrorists would be learning how to fly planes, so that they could fly hijacked planes into national monuments. Somehow US authorities did not get that memo. The 9/11 commission found 12 instances of this happening, before 9/11. US authorities failed to get 12 memos. Most searchers think it must have crashed, probably at sea. Hijack is another common speculation.4 The plane was traveling in darkness, dependent on instruments, which can be hacked, leading pilots to rely on false info to tell them where they are, and where they are supposed to go.

Tags
Plane crash, MH 370, Boeing 777, China, Malaysia Airline, stolen passports,

Chaotic Stories
When *any* disaster hits the news, the people on the scene *never* have a clear idea of what happened, until there has been a good investigation. This brings together bits of info known to the various actors, in this case: civilian ATC of 2 nations; military radar of I don’t know how many; the other plane that tried to communicate wit h MH370; the
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http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/missing-malaysia-airlines-flight-worlds-3220716 http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2014/03/breaking-us-officials-believe-malaysian-airlines-flight-370may-have-been-hijacked-for-later-use/?ModPagespeed=noscript

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village that some jet flew over; satellites of God knows how many nations and private interests. Very early on, Malaysians were saying things based on info they refused to share, in contradiction to clues Vietnam was finding. Compare the alleged flight path, with the search areas. Why is the Andaman sea one of the search areas? 5

As the search for the plane advances, what the investigation finds out, and clarifies, will lead to an evolving story. Some commentators seize on this and act like the stories from the authorities are conflicting … first they say this … then they say that. Of course we should expect such a pattern, if the investigation is in fact finding out more info. 6 No investigation has all the facts at the beginning, all they have is clues, some of which may turn out later to be not relevant. There is also the risk of mis-translation when info communicated in one human language, translated into another. Then there are technical matters, translated by someone in an effort to give them layman terminology clarity, and may be falsely translated. Lots of people are speculating, with no supporting evidence, other than history of what has happened with other aircraft, what they do and do not know about other events which may not be related. For example, there have been several gas explosions, which hurt 50100 homes. When one of these happens in a community, the first thing the locals think is “A natural gas explosion cannot do this much damage, it must be a terrorist attack.” Then all news media persons are anxious to be first with a scoop, so they repeat unconfirmed rumors, like those speculations which may not have been clearly written that they were speculations, as opposed to facts. We see this in the early coverage of most every disaster. Rumors in the news, later explained as not true, but when first reported, they are reported as fact, certainties. In this disaster, we will be told false rumors as fact for much longer, because there is no real fact regarding the location of the plane, until it is found, if it is found. We share links to sources, then the news media changes what is at that link. 7 Some news media report on the previous collision this plane was in, but say nothing about the repairs, implying that maybe the repairs were not done. There’s stories of cell phones of passengers, being allegedly contacted by family members. Modern communications may be black magic to many users and news media, lacking an understanding of how they really work, drawing wrong conclusions of how to

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http://www.theguardian.com/world/blog/2014/mar/12/mh370-search-extended-into-andaman-sea-liveupdates 6 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/03/12/contradictory-statements-frommalaysia-over-missing-airliner-perplex-infuriate/ 7 http://whereismh370.com/

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tell the difference between a failed connection, and one where the phone at the other end was reached, but no one picked up. People outside the area, and maybe some people near the area, are handicapped with lack of geographical and technical data.8 • Where is that gulf or sea, mentioned in the news reports? • How deep is the water in those places mentioned as possibilities? • How widespread is ATC and military radar over the area, or are there blind spots like in Brazil where planes fly and no radar can watch them, and Brazil is too cheap to have a satellite cover the gaps? • How effective are satellites at seeing what happens in the night time? • What is the reputation of this or that nation’s government agency or corporation for truth telling, or competence in this area? • If this plane had not been lost, but had continued on to its destination, we would never have known that two travelers were on fake passports. Given that over 95% of the nations of the world don’t seem to care that travelers thro ugh their nation are doing this, are there any reliable statistics on volume of fake identity usage, so we cannot know significance of two people who may be traveling together, both using stolen passports.

Heart of the Mystery
The Atlantic magazine points out:9

If the airplane did keep on flying, presumably there would be evidence of that fact -- at a minimum through "primary radar returns," blips on civilian or military radar screens showing that something was in the air even if the plane's transponder was not sending back specific identifying info. If the airplane did not keep on flying, presumably there would be evidence of that -- through wreckage on the ground, oil slicks or debris in the sea, satellite detection of a flash or explosion at the relevant time.

What other possibility is there? • Radar jamming • Plane hijacked, landed and put under camouflage. • Malaysia kept radar data secret long enough for the plane’s debris into some place where there was no searching, then the debris sinks below the ocean waves.

Fact Checking
Many dimensions of the story seem incredible. • Oil worker sees the plane on fire, along its projected route, and that is not part of a search area. • Malaysian military says one thing one day, denies it the next.
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http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2014/03/11/9-odd-facts-Malaysian-Flight http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2014/03/why-malaysia-airlines-370-remains-soprofoundly-mysterious-and-why-a-better-black-box-wouldnt-help/284407/?google_editors_picks=true

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Malaysian Airlines representative, sent to press conference, is ignorant about his own airline standard practices.

This has led to some people trying to trace original sources of some stories, to fact check or validate ingredients.10

Story dimensions
There are many dimensions to this story. • Civilian Air Traffic Control • Clues • Commercial air industry technical details • Conflicting stories • Confusion • Debris • Disagreements • History • Military • Mystery • Stolen passports • Time line – what is known, suspected • Tragedy I have tried to organize logically … see table of contents. Some pieces of news, allegations, questions – they impinge on multiple dimensions, so in a few cases, I repeat the same info, within the different dimensions.

2014 Mar 8 Asia Airliner goes missing
Malaysia Airlines flight MH 370, a Boeing 777, disappeared from radar screens, over the Gulf of Thailand, with 239 on board, while traveling from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, to Beijing, China.11

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http://whereismh370.com/post/79311978423/summary-mh370-fact-checked-and-debunked-as-of-march https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_370 http://www.nst.com.my/mh370?ModPagespeed=noscript http://www.nst.com.my/latest/font-color-red-missing-mh370-font-indonesia-helps-in-search-for-airliner1.504168?ModPagespeed=noscript http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/08/malaysia-airlines-experts-surprised-at-disappearance-ofvery-safe-boeing-777 http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/08/malaysia-airlines-flight-239-dead http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/08/malaysia-airlines-plane-mh370-kuala-lumpur-beijingboeing-777 http://www.nst.com.my/nation/general/font-color-red-missing-mh370-font-pilot-i-established-contact-withplane-1.503464?ModPagespeed=noscript https://www.google.com/search?q=boeing+777+missing&client=firefox-a&hs=ZzB&rls=org.mozilla:enUS:official&channel=sb&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=dugbU6q_O6HayAH3roCYAQ&ved =0CHkQsAQ&biw=1274&bih=694

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The first few days after any surprise event in the news, there is great risk of rapidly changing stories and false speculations.12 Malaysian update site, with evolving info about this plane, as it develops.13 Here is an update site, hosted by the airport from which the plane left.14 Some confusion may be related to local time for the different localities in the area. Also our unfamiliarity with the geography of the region can lead to misinterpreting some of the news reports.

Graphic Map: Flight path scheduled Region
Here is where I got the graphic below.15

Adding to the confusion, a Malaysian Airlines official told the media, in a press conference, a rumor which the Chinese government has previously denied - that the aircraft had landed in the southern Chinese city of Nanning.16 Officials, in some nations, are more accustomed to lying to their people, than in others.

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http://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20140308-0 http://www.malaysiaairlines.com/my/en/site/dark-site.html http://www.bernama.com.my/bernama/v7/newsindex.php?id=1020298 14 http://www.klia.com.my/index.php/component/content/article/46/276.html http://www.bernama.com.my/bernama/v7/newsindex.php?id=1020239 15 http://www.voanews.com/content/vietnam-searchers-fail-to-find-debris-from-missingairliner/1867761.html 16 http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/08/us-malaysia-airlines-crash-china-idUSBREA2709E20140308

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Another explanation can be inexperience in conducting a briefing. Here is what I believe they should be doing: 1. Without the news media or families present, hold a conference of leaders of all portions of the investigation. This should include teleconference with those in other nations, locations. The purpose of this is to bring all up-to-speed on new info heard, state rumors and get up or down confirmation as to their reliability, and whether they should be with-held from the public, pending confirmation, or more info. Representatives in one nation can ask each other for clarification of some stories, progress on some portions of the investigation. It sounds like they have been skipping this step. 2. Then the leaders go out to brief the public, and the families, in two separate briefings. I think the families should go first, at a set time. The media briefing can always be delayed an hour or so, if the family briefing goes longer. 3. From both of these briefings, there can be a list of questions to be researched, to clarify ASAP,17 preferably at the next daily briefing. If they have been answering such questions, I have not seen news coverage of this. 4. Keep a record of info given out, then when they find out that it was incorrect, issue a correction. “We said X on day # whatever or date briefing. We have now found out contrary information.” Then clarify. 5. Their web site should include a list of briefings, date time topic of each, with link to each. Instead, you get to site & find latest briefing, with links to prior pages, not easy to navigate thru them. Web sites can come with links to view the info in a variety of languages. I am not seeing much of that for this story.

Graphic Map: Flight Path Zoom closest nations
Here is where I got this next graphic.18

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ASAP = As Soon As Possible. PDQ = Pretty Darn Quick. 18 http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/03/10/mh370s-new-mystery-who-is-mr-ali-and-why-did-he-buytickets-for-passengers-with-stolen-passports/

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Military detection systems
Also see Time Line chapter for when MH370 was allegedly detected where. The early warning system for the North American Air Defense (NORAD) Command detected no anomalies related to Flight 370, said one of the officials. Norad’s infrared and visual imagery can pick up heat sources such as explosions and missile launches, the official said.19 I was surprised to learn that NORAD was monitoring an area so far distant from USA. Is that mission creep, part of the war against terrorism, or remnants of Cold War looking for atomic tests?
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http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-03-10/malaysia-jet-investigators-sift-through-facts-that-don-tadd-up

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The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization, which watches out for nuclear weapons tests worldwide, looked at its data for the last few days to see if its infrasound – below the range of human hearing – recordings, normally used to seek out the muffled crump of underground tests, contained any signature of an aircraft explosion. But it found nothing.20 Not all aircraft are required to have transponders, just those which interact with air traffic control (ATC), but even without one, aircraft is still detectable on a nation’s military radar, unless it has very sophisticated military jamming, or the nation does not have good radar coverage of entire border. India states that MH370 did NOT enter their air space. 21 Malaysia's military believes it tracked missing flight MH370 on radar AFTER it last made contact with air traffic control.22 It changed course after Kota Bharu and took an approx 1,000m lower altitude to go over the Strait of Malacca, which runs along the west coast of Malaysia, and is one of the world's busiest shipping channels. 23 Villagers near Marang, on Malaysia's eastern coast, told police they had heard a "loud and frightening noise", which sounded like a jet plane flying very low, at around 1.20am Sat Mar-8. That’s 2 minutes before ATC lost MH370 transponder signal. However, ordinary people clocks are generally not as accurate as military and civilian aircraft management. The USA believes the plane headed NW towards the Indian Ocean, and Middle East. 24 If we believe this military story, what could explain the actions of the plane? • Hijacking • An electrical failure which takes out transponder, radio, other systems, but the plane still can fly. They turn the plane around, but without many instruments working, and in total darkness time of night, they get lost trying to find where they can safely land.25

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http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn25201-malaysian-plane-sent-out-engine-data-beforevanishing.html#.UyAzfUJ_tOh 21 http://m.timesofindia.com/india/Missing-Malaysian-flight-did-not-pass-over-Indian-airspace-KolkataATC/articleshow/32091364.cms 22 http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/14/mh370-search-for-missing-plane-extends-to-the-indianocean-live-updates 23 http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/missing-malaysian-airlines-flight-military-3229464 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/10687223/Malaysia-Airlines-MH370-planecrash-live.html http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2014/03/breaking-radar-detected-missing-malaysia-jet-hundreds-ofmiles-off-course-in-malacca-strait/?ModPagespeed=noscript 24 http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2014/03/radar-shows-missing-flight-mh370-took-course-normallyemployed-for-routes-to-middle-east/?ModPagespeed=noscript 25 http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/unreal

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However, on day-5, the head of Malaysia's air force denied making comments that the Malaysian military had last tracked the plane far to the west of its course over the Strait of Malacca.26

Graphic Maps: Malaysian military radar tracking MH370 to west
Here is where I found the following image:27

Here is where I found the following graphic.28

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http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/352167/news/world/vietnam-scales-down-search-for-missingmalaysian-jet http://www.theguardian.com/world/blog/2014/mar/12/mh370-search-extended-into-andaman-sea-liveupdates#block-5320517be4b0ea23600ea294 27 http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/missing-malaysian-airlines-flight-military-3229464 28 http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2014/03/breaking-radar-detected-missing-malaysia-jet-hundreds-ofmiles-off-course-in-malacca-strait/?ModPagespeed=noscript

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Graphic Map: Indian Ocean fuel range
Here is where I got the following Indian Ocean graphic:29

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http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2014/03/radar-shows-missing-flight-mh370-took-course-normallyemployed-for-routes-to-middle-east/?ModPagespeed=noscript

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Many uncertainties
Some uncertainties are due to people either not thinking about, or not knowing about, some logical explanations, and what really is possible. Stolen passports do not necessarily mean the people involved have done this to do some crime, on the plane. More often they are for the purpose of traveling where they might not be allowed to go, based on their true identities. It is not unprecedented for a plane to disappear, without any apparent trace or good explanation. • In June 2009 Air France 444 from Brazil to France was lost at sea, and it took 2 years to be found. • In 2007 an Indonesian plane was lost in this same area, and it took 1 week to be found. • In 1990 a Boeing 727 owned by Faucett Airlines of Peru was ditched into the North Atlantic after running out of fuel on its way to Miami. The accident was attributed to poor pilot planning and the wreck was never recovered.

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For a plane to disappear without a distress call, there are only so many possibilities, outside the realm of science fiction:30 • It got hijacked. • Someone hacked the GPS causing the plane crew to fly way off course and not know it, with the search not being where it ended up. How long can we expect debris to be floating on ocean anyway? • There was sudden destruction, like with a bomb. • It collided with something, not seen on ATC “radar” which is only concerned with transponders. So it could have collided with a flock of birds, a single engine plane, a drone, a meteor, volcanic ash, if there’s an active volcano in the area. • There’s a media story alleging that the cabin crew bring girl friends into the cockpit, like the captain of the Italian cruise ship which turned upside down, because of big time distractions. • Someone poisoned the cabin crew, and they all passed out at the same time. • One member of the cabin crew was an imposter who assassinated the rest. • There are additional possibilities unlikely because of the reputation of Boeing 777, experience of pilot, and it being clear weather. However, many possibilities would also mean a debris field, for the search to find, assuming they searching wherever the plane went down. Puzzlement additions: • The plane was a Boeing 777, one of the safest in the world. • It was clear weather. • The pilot was extremely experienced. • There were both civilian and military tracking, from each of several nations, none of which detected anything unusual, other than radar losing the transponder, and then the airplane out of radio communication. Several things we have not yet learned from the news media: • How fatigued might the cabin crew have been, from their duties prior to this flight. There have been US incidents due to transportation workers having to work around the clock. • What was the medical condition of the crew? There was a recent train wreck in the USA because the engineer was going blind, literally. The state had pulled his driver license for highways, because he was going blind, but his railway employer apparently did not get the memo. At least thru day-3, investigators had many options open, but no idea which true. Here is a collection of relevant meteorological (weather) charts for the missing
Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 flight MH370.31
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http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-03-10/malaysia-jet-investigators-sift-through-facts-that-don-tadd-up http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2014/0310/Malaysia-Airlines-Flight-370-How-does-a-plane-justdisappear-like-that-video http://www.smh.com.au/world/missing-malaysian-airlines-plane-how-can-a-jet-just-disappear-its-not-hard20140311-hvh7a.html

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Here is info about ocean depths (in meters) relevant to the missing plane. 32

There are conflicting stories regarding last contact with the plane, including: 33 • Lost radar contact with ground air traffic control;34 • Lost radar contact with military;35 • Transponder signal detected by ground air traffic control; • Radio communications with ground air traffic control; • Radio communications with another airliner in the area; 36 • Phone call, allegedly to a passenger on the plane; 37 Until the plane is found, if it is found, all we have is speculation. • Did it blow up in mid air? • Did it crash into the sea? • Did it crash somewhere else? • Was it hijacked? • Was it attacked? There are some clues which might tend to support some of the speculations. It sounds to me like radar contact was lost at a particular time, then there were efforts to contact the plane on radio, which succeeded but due to static they were unable to get good info. Losing radar contact does not necessarily mean plane go down. It could mean radar go down. However, we are now hearing that contact was lost just as the plane was to be transferred from Malaysian ATC to Vietnam ATC, and it was also on military radar, so radar go down is most unlikely when it is 3+ independent radars. There are many other planes in the sky. Transponder tells Air Traffic Control (ATC) which is which. Just because ATC loses contact with the plane, does not mean it crashed there. If it was hijacked, the hijackers could have turned off the transponder, ordered
31 32

http://www.weathergraphics.com/malaysia/ http://maps.ngdc.noaa.gov/viewers/bathymetry/ 33 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_370 http://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20140308-0 http://www.flightradar24.com/data/airplanes/9m-mro 34 http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/missing-malaysia-airlines-flight-watch-3219796 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26503144 http://uk.flightaware.com/live/flight/MAS370/history/20140307/1635Z/WMKK/ZBAA 35 According to Admiral Ngo Van Phat of the Vietnam People's Navy, military radar lost the plane "some 153 nautical miles (300 km)" south of Thổ Chu in the Gulf of Thailand, says Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_370 36 http://www.nst.com.my/nation/general/font-color-red-missing-mh370-font-pilot-i-established-contactwith-plane1.503464?cache=03/7.198169?page%3D0/7.212234?key%3Dmalaysia&ModPagespeed=noscript 37 http://www.stasiareport.com/the-big-story/asia-report/china/story/missing-malaysia-airlines-planefamily-chinese-passenger-sayshttp://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/missing-jet/malaysia-airlines-passengers-phones-ringing-maybe-notn49371

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the plane to a lower altitude, below radar, and flown for many hours out of the area now being searched. We need a time line, and here is one.38 Except I don’t know if the times are British, or what. I have a chapter below with a time line. Malaysian radar thinks the plane may have turned back. Several nations have detected clues at different locations which may be a crash site. There is where the plane disappeared in the sky, and where the plane may have crashed. We should not expect them to be the identical place, because until we know what caused the plane to come down, we do not know how far it could have traveled before the crash. There’s lots of reasons for debris in the water, other than a crashed plane. Ships throw their garbage overboard, have fuel leaks. Many nations allow their people and industry to pollute rivers which run into the sea.

Missed opportunities
Interpol has data base of stolen passports. Many nations, including Malaysia, are not using it, and claim they have no need to do so. Captain of flight ½ hour ahead of the missing plane, was asked to try to contact them on radio, and did so, 8 minutes after transponder lost on radar. Black Box of that other plane would have captured audio of the conversation. Was that recording preserved? I think not.

Few certainties
Information is trickling out slowly, via the news media. Some of that information is either incorrect, or seriously misleading. That is normal for any disaster until facts are known, and shared by honest people. We know that a plane can disappear over an ocean and not be found for a long time. It happened with Air France from Brazil to France in 2009. That plane was not found for 2 years. We know this plane is missing. We do not know where it is. There are clues being investigated. We know two of the passengers were traveling on stolen passports. We know that reality is systemic in some parts of the world. The fact that their tickets were purchased together, in cash, by a 3rd party is merely suggestive, until more is known about their real identities.

38

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/missing-malaysia-airlines-flight-live-3219331

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Pilots have a mantra for setting priorities in an emergency: aviate, navigate, communicate. The first priority is to fly the airplane. Telling air traffic controllers on the ground what is going on comes third, since doing so is unlikely to instantly yield any help with the crisis in the cockpit, whatever it may be. If the pilots are fighting to keep the plane aloft, they may not have time to use the radio.39

Aircraft maintenance communications
We know that technical information about the plane was available before it was lost. 40 To aid maintenance, most airlines use the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS), which automatically collates and files four technical reports during every flight so that engineers can spot problems. These reports are sent via VHF radio or satellite at take-off, during the climb, at some point while cruising, and on landing. Malaysian Airlines has this system, but has not yet revealed to the news media whether they learned anything useful from it, to help with the search or investigation. The maker of the missing Boeing 777's Trent 800 engines, Rolls Royce, received two data reports from flight MH370 at its global engine health monitoring centre in Derby, UK, where it keeps real-time tabs on its engines in use. One was broadcast as MH370 took off from Kuala Lumpur International Airport, the other during the 777's climb out towards Beijing. This implies that if the plane had been hijacked, and the hijackers did not know how to turn off this system, that it would have told the airline, and other interested parties, exactly where they landed. Is this a piece of information which should not have been revealed to us public, because now potential hijackers know about this dimension?

Fishermen find a raft
Fishermen found a life raft, near Port Dickson (PD), which may have come from the missing plane. They immediately called authorities, and the Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency (MMEA) came to get it, but lost it while they were trying to lift it into the MMEA craft. Below is what they found, and here is link to where I found this info.41

39

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/11/world/asia/q-and-a-on-the-disappearance-of-malaysia-airlinesflight-mh370.html?_r=0 40 http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn25201-malaysian-plane-sent-out-engine-data-beforevanishing.html#.UyAzfUJ_tOh 41 http://www.nst.com.my/latest/font-color-red-missing-mh370-font-fishermen-find-life-raft-near-pd1.509222?ModPagespeed=noscript

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Oil Rig worker witnesses plane crash
Oil rig worker claims to have seen, what he thinks was the MH370 plane come down.42 This was on the SE coast of Vietnam, along the flight path of the plane, if we ignore Malaysian confused claims of why they think it turned back, and as of day-5 this area is not yet one of the official search areas, although Vietnam has searched there. In an e-mail from one worker to his employer, which has been shared with relevant authorities, he describes seeing what he believes to be the plane burning — in one piece — at high altitude, flying perpendicular to the standard plane routes that cross over the
42

http://www.fromthetrenchesworldreport.com/oil-rig-worker-i-saw-the-malaysia-airlines-plane-comedown/79589 http://mashable.com/2014/03/12/malaysia-airlines-370-search-area/

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area. “From when I first saw the burning (plane) until the flames went out (still at high altitude) was 10-15 seconds. There was no lateral movement, so it was either coming toward our location, stationary, or going away from our location,” he writes. 43 In my opinion, if you see something apparently stationary in the sky, it may be falling almost straight towards your position.

Info comes out, but slowly
Chinese media outlets took to their official Weibo microblogs to criticize the airline for taking so long to announce what was going on and for refusing to answer questions. "Malaysia Airlines, why did you wait for 5 hours after losing contact with the aircraft to first announce the news, and why did you only have a news conference after almost 13 hours?" the official Xinhua news agency wrote on one of its Weibo accounts.44 One explanation could be that Malaysian Airlines management had no idea what to do. It is not unusual for businesses to be unprepared for disaster. I guess the Chinese news agency personnel does not know about China censorship. For example: SARS traveled around the world weeks after China knew they had an epidemic, and China only came clean because the epidemic was traded to them.

Graphic Chart: Nationalities in Passenger Manifest
We now know there are some inaccuracies due to the stolen passports. Here is where I found the following graphic.45

43

http://www.fromthetrenchesworldreport.com/oil-rig-worker-i-saw-the-malaysia-airlines-plane-comedown/79589 44 http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/08/us-malaysia-airlines-crash-china-idUSBREA2709E20140308 45 http://www.nst.com.my/latest/font-color-red-missing-mh370-font-indonesia-helps-in-search-for-airliner1.504168?ModPagespeed=noscript

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The above graphic shows 1 Italy and 1 Austria. Those are stolen passports carried by individuals allegedly with Asian faces. Their national identities (if any) are not yet known, as the early days after the plane disappeared. A photo, claimed to be of airplane wreckage, shot by a Chinese passenger travelling in a flight from Beijing to Kuala Lumpur operated by Malaysia airlines too, has circulated on the Chinese social media site Weibo. He said that he took multiple images from the window when his flight was at an altitude of 11,000 m (36,000 ft) at 06:45 on 9 March.46 British Daily Mail thinks the lost airliner is the same plane which was involved in another mishap, Aug 2012, which left the plane with a broken wingtip. 47 Other stories confirmed that later, with spokespersons saying the plane had been fully repaired.48

Deadly plane crash history
Similar crashes have occurred before.49
46 47

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_370 http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2576353/Malaysian-Airlines-Boeing-777-centre-crash-probecollided-plane-two-years-ago-breaking-wingtip.html 48 http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/09/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/ 49 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-10785301 http://pdf.reuters.com/pdfnews/pdfnews.asp?i=43059c3bf0e37541&u=2014_03_08_02_52_43ff3cd981de4 a5d8ef9425e32fa7222_PRIMARY.jpg

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We now know that if a plane flies through ash from a volcano, that destroys the engines, visibility, and all instruments on the outside, such as radio antenna. The plane becomes a brick, unable to communicate. We know that now, because once upon a time we did not know it, and planes were lost thanks to not knowing that. Air France 444 went into the ocean June 2009, en route from Brazil to France, in which no SOS was sounded, and it was 2 years before it was found.50 As noted elsewhere, while plane crashes may kill hundreds of people in a single spot, 51 more people than that die every day on US highways, and we don’t have plane crashes every day, so highways and their drivers are responsible for many more dead than plane crashes. If all those on board Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 are found to have died, it will rank as the deadliest airline disaster since November 12, 2001, when American Airlines Flight 587 crashed into a New York neighborhood, killing all 260 people on board and five more on the ground.52 See the comments on CNN’s “deadliest ever commercial airline c rashes, disputing some of CNN’s details such as:53 • They share the story of 574 people killed at Tenerife March 27, 1977, when two airliners collided. • Then they say the deadliest plane crash involving a single plane, was 520 Aug 12, 1985 in Japan. • While 9/11 killed more, at the time the 1985 crash of a single plane may well have been the most killed in any air disaster, because the 574 dead were not from a single plane, but a pair of them. From high numbers on down, here are some of the deadliest plane crashes.54 • 9/11 – 2001 – 4 planes used in terrorist attacks, suspicions of others in the plot • 574 – 1977 March 27 – Tenerife in Canary Islands – 2 planes collide • 520 – 1985 Aug 12 – Japan • 346 – 1974 March 3 – France • 349 – 1996 Nov 12 - India We would expect that more and more people would die in plane crashes, moving forwards in history, since planes get larger. 55 We might expect lower number of crashes

50 51

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_447 http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303369904579427181652198274 52 http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/09/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/ 53 http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/08/travel/fatal-commercial-airline-crashes/index.html?iid=article_sidebar 54 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plane_crashes 55 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/03/10/ten-major-international-airlinesdisasters-in-the-past-50-years/

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since planes get safer,56 but there are more of them, and because they are known to be extra safe, we can expect their owner management to get more careless. Every year from 1999-2012 there have been over 100 air crashes, according to Wikipedia.57 I don’t know if they are including drones.

Passengers and crew

12 crew on board, and 227 passengers.
152 of the passengers were Chinese nationals. Other travelers included: 38 Malaysians; 7 Indonesians; 6 Australians; Passengers allegedly from India, France, the US, New Zealand, Ukraine, Canada, Russia, Italy (stolen passport), Taiwan, the Netherlands and Austria (stolen passport). Five passengers ended up not boarding the aircraft. Their bags were removed and were not on board the jet when it disappeared, said Malaysian authorities, who are reviewing info about the identities of everyone booked for that flight. 58 In addition to the 2 traveling on stolen passports, 59 there are now 2 others who are suspects.60 Pity Malaysian authorities were incapable of checking out passengers before departure. Nations can always afford to deal with a huge mess, but never to do things right in the first place. Malaysia has yet to acknowledge that failure to check passengers before boarding, might be a security risk or lapse. Here is a passenger manifest.61 There is also a report that one of the Chinese names listed as being on the plane, is not in fact on the plane.62 Could that be two people with the same name? Until the plane is definitively located, the airport, airline, governments, cannot give info to family of passengers, about the fate of their loved ones. In their despair, they are not

56

http://pdf.reuters.com/pdfnews/pdfnews.asp?i=43059c3bf0e37541&u=2014_03_09_12_50_3e67abc0911d 4adf81e133c524647234_PRIMARY.jpg 57 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plane_crashes 58 http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/09/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/ 59 http://www.nationalterroralert.com/2014/03/08/stolen-european-passports-on-missing-plane/ 60 http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/authorities-probing-entire-mh370-manifest-atleast-4-suspect-passengers http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/malaysia-airlines-plane-vanishes-over-south-chinasea/2014/03/08/97b1eb4a-a69f-11e3-bf3d-63f593e487a9_story.html
61

http://www.malaysiaairlines.com/content/dam/mas/master/en/pdf/Malaysia%20Airlines%20Flight%20MH %20370%20Passenger%20Manifest.pdf 62 http://penangboy96.blogspot.com/2014/03/malaysia-airlines-mh370-flight-incident_5731.html

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thinking logically about this, and instead are angry that no one is telling them the information which no one has.63 Conflicting stories, from the airline, only furthers families anger.

Many nations respond
Many nations are rushing both search and rescue, and investigators, to the area. The presumption is that it has crashed. By the end of the day Sunday March-9, more than 40 aircraft (planes and helicopters) and more than 45 ships from several countries have joined the search for the missing MH370 airliner.64 Nations involved, in the search for MH370, include: • USA – ships, plane(s), and helicopters65 • Vietnam – ships, planes,66 satellite67 o Satellite search started on day 3. o By day four they up to 10 planes. • Thailand – ships and plane68 • Taiwan – ships and plane69 • Singapore – ships, planes, helicopter70 • Philippines – ships and plane(s).71
63

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/08/malaysia-flight-passports_n_4925774.html http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/10/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-flight.html?partner=rss&emc=rss 64 http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/09/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/ 65 http://www.nst.com.my/latest/font-color-red-missing-mh370-font-search-in-coastal-areas1.504792?ModPagespeed=noscript http://www.nst.com.my/latest/font-color-red-missing-mh370-font-malaysia-welcomes-sar-assistance-fromother-countries-1.504618?ModPagespeed=noscript http://www.nst.com.my/latest/font-color-red-missing-mh370-font-us-dispatch-two-ships-aircraft-to-assistsar-operation-1.504599 http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/US-navy-sends-destroyer-to-help-in-planesearch/articleshow/31686104.cms 66 http://my.news.yahoo.com/malaysian-plane-crashed-off-vietnam-coast-state-media-060229352-finance.html http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-rt-us-malaysiaairlines-flight-20140307,0,6253650.story http://www.nst.com.my/latest/font-color-red-missing-mh370-font-malaysia-welcomes-sar-assistance-fromother-countries-1.504618?ModPagespeed=noscript 67 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-10/plane-debris-hunters-seek-suspected-aircraft-windowpart.html https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_370 68 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_370 69 http://www.webcitation.org/6O0PjE6tH 70 http://www.nst.com.my/latest/font-color-red-missing-mh370-font-search-in-coastal-areas1.504792?ModPagespeed=noscript http://www.nst.com.my/latest/font-color-red-missing-mh370-font-malaysia-welcomes-sar-assistance-fromother-countries-1.504618?ModPagespeed=noscript 71 http://my.news.yahoo.com/malaysian-plane-crashed-off-vietnam-coast-state-media-060229352-finance.html http://www.nst.com.my/latest/font-color-red-missing-mh370-font-malaysia-welcomes-sar-assistance-fromother-countries-1.504618?ModPagespeed=noscript

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• • • • • • • •

Boeing 777 Asia 2014 Mar 08 New Zealand - plane72 Malaysia – ships, planes, helicopter73 Japan - planes74

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Indonesia – ships, plane, helicopter75 India – ships, planes, satellite76 China - 2 warships, Jinggang Shan and Mianyang. Jinggang Shan has two helicopters, 30 medical personnel, ten divers, and 52 marines, as well as lifesaving and underwater detection equipment.77 Also satellites.78 Brunei – ship79 Australia – 2 planes80 with highly specialized sonar equipment.

By the second day, • Malaysian deployment became the largest search and rescue contingent, comprising 27 ships (14 navy and 13 coast guard vessels), as well as 16 aircraft (11 air force and five coast guard).81 • China has sent 2 warships, a coast-guard craft and two search and rescue vessels • USA sent a U.S. guided missile destroyer and maritime patrol aircraft. • Vietnam has sent 5 ships and 3 aircraft. • Singapore deployed 2 warships, a submarine support and rescue vessel, as well as two C-130 military airlifters, • 3 Indonesian surface vessels are on-site. • Thailand has contributed a ship and an aircraft so far.
72 73

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_370 http://www.nst.com.my/latest/font-color-red-missing-mh370-font-search-in-coastal-areas1.504792?ModPagespeed=noscript http://www.nst.com.my/latest/font-color-red-missing-mh370-font-result-of-oil-trace-expected-by-noontomorrow-mmea-1.504696?ModPagespeed=noscript 74 http://www.fromthetrenchesworldreport.com/oil-rig-worker-i-saw-the-malaysia-airlines-plane-comedown/79589 http://thediplomat.com/2014/03/japan-joins-search-for-malaysia-airlines-flight-370/ 75 http://www.nst.com.my/latest/font-color-red-missing-mh370-font-indonesia-helps-in-search-for-airliner1.504168?ModPagespeed=noscript http://www.fromthetrenchesworldreport.com/oil-rig-worker-i-saw-the-malaysia-airlines-plane-comedown/79589 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_370 76 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_370 77 http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/special/2014-03/09/c_133171410.htm http://www.nst.com.my/latest/font-color-red-missing-mh370-font-search-in-coastal-areas1.504792?ModPagespeed=noscript http://www.nst.com.my/latest/font-color-red-missing-mh370-font-malaysia-welcomes-sar-assistance-fromother-countries-1.504618?ModPagespeed=noscript 78 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-10/plane-debris-hunters-seek-suspected-aircraft-windowpart.html http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/missing-malaysian-airlines-flight-military-3229464 79 http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2014-03/10/c_133174447.htm 80 http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/australia-sending-two-p3c-orions-from-darwin-tomalaysia-to-aid-with-the-search-for-missing-malaysian-flight-mh370/story-fnizu68q-1226849663966 81 http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303795904579428904142858382

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Early in the following week, several nations, and at least one private organization, were using satellites to try to locate debris fields. China found one that way, but search planes were not able to nail it down.82 Several nations have offered help, but do not yet have resources into the immediate area, including: • Britain’s engine manufacturer, Rolls Royce, has offered technical help in the investigation.83 • France84 offers their investigators, whose reputation rivals US NTSB. • New Zealand85 offered a P-3C Orion which is specialized in maritime surveillance. Day-4 (Tues): China to add planes, expand search to land areas as Vietnam scales down search for missing jetliner.86 Day-5 (Wed): Eight members of a Japanese search team arrived in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, to prepare for the arrival of two C-130 transport aircraft of the Air SelfDefense Force and two P-3C patrol planes of the Maritime Self-Defense Force.87

Graphic Chart: International Search
Here is where I located the following graphic.88

82 83

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/03/13/malaysia-airlines-idINDEEA2900B20140313 http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn25201-malaysian-plane-sent-out-engine-data-beforevanishing.html#.UyAzfUJ_tOh http://www.theguardian.com/world/blog/2014/mar/12/mh370-search-extended-into-andaman-sea-liveupdates#block-5320517be4b0ea23600ea294 84 http://my.news.yahoo.com/french-accident-board-offers-help-recovering-missing-flight-203706275.html 85 http://www.theborneopost.com/2014/03/11/nz-offers-to-join-search-for-missing-plane/ 86 http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/352167/news/world/vietnam-scales-down-search-for-missingmalaysian-jet 87 http://www.fromthetrenchesworldreport.com/oil-rig-worker-i-saw-the-malaysia-airlines-plane-comedown/79589 88 http://www.nst.com.my/latest/font-color-red-missing-mh370-font-us-dispatch-two-ships-aircraft-toassist-sar-operation-1.504599?ModPagespeed=noscript

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Graphic Map: Search area 3rd day after plane went missing
I found this map here via a contact on G+89

Graphic Map: some relevant place names
Here is where I found the graphic below:90

89 90

https://plus.google.com/u/0/+MartyDArcy/posts/PJHd94g7qvu http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/14/03/MALAYSIA-AIRLINES%20MAP%20C.jpg n.reuters.com/article/2014/03/13/malaysia-airlines-idINDEEA2900B20140313

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Disputes between nations are not interfering.
There are many disputes involving the nations of the region. • Waters which are considered to be coastal waters of this or that nation. • Islands which are considered to be part of this or that nation, some of which seems to be motivated by oil and other resources. • Where exactly is the border between this or that nation. • Long standing disputes rooted in religion.

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• • • •

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Nations whose courts and foreign services say drones from USA, and other nations, are doing war crimes on their soil, but USA continues to use drones to attack people in those nations. State-sponsored terrorism. Spying on each other. Look up any nation in the CIA World Book, and find a laundry list of unresolved disputes.

But for now, search and rescue, then investigating cause of crash, is taking priority. 91 Here is an article on China driving fishing boats out of the area.92 South China Sea is one of the places Vietnam thinks the plane may have crashed, with 154 China citizens aboard. Poetic justice for China national interests that there were no fishing boats to observe the plane if it crashed there. With the One Child China policy, children are valued much more heavily now than in the past, and the elderly can no longer be supported by their families, so as China's population shrinks, they are experiencing problems that other nations have had for centuries, but they are new to China. Sunday afternoon 2014 Mar 9, a statement issued in the name of a previously unknown group claimed that the disappearance of the plane was a political act aimed at the Chinese and Malaysian governments and referred to last week's attack in a Chinese train station that Beijing blamed on Uighur separatists. It stopped short of a claim of responsibility. Malaysian officials said that they were unaware of any claim of responsibility but would investigate all possibilities.93

Private Enterprise also searching
Longmont, Colo.-based DigitalGlobe trained cameras, from its five orbiting satellites Saturday May-8, on the Gulf of Thailand region where Malaysia flight 370 was last heard from. The images being gathered will be made available for free to the public on a website called Tomnod.94 Anyone theoretically can click on the link and begin searching the images, tagging anything that looks suspicious, to facilitate crowd-sourcing. Each pixel on a computer screen represents half a meter on the ocean’s surface. I have joined this, and am beginning to explore what’s involved. In November 2013, the company launched a similar crowdsourcing campaign after Typhoon Haiyan devastated Southeast Asia. The company says users placed more than 400,000 tags, identifying 38,000 damaged buildings and 101,000 damaged homes. 95

91 92

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303795904579428904142858382 http://thediplomat.com/2014/03/china-to-foreign-fishing-boats-get-out-of-south-china-sea/ 93 http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=240501:mh370-foundat-last?-vietnam-searchers-find-pieces-of-door-airplane-tail&Itemid=2#.Ux4mJM5UPDc 94 http://www.tomnod.com/nod/challenge/malaysiaairsar2014?source=abc 95 http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlines/2014/03/crowdsourcing-the-search-for-malaysia-flight-370/

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When I first tried it, the map was too dark. I figured night time over there, so maybe try a different time of day. I was not getting the info. I figured I had too much stuff going concurrently on my PC, but no, the site was overwhelmed because more people joined than they had expected in their wildest dreams.96 “We have had six million map views. Half-a-million people have signed up, it’s a 100 times the response we’ve had before.”

Difficult sometimes to find a lost plane
Without knowing the trajectory of a plane as it went down–or fully understanding wind and wave conditions if it crashed into water–searchers sometimes can end up crisscrossing huge areas looking for relatively small pieces of wreckage. Particularly deep water or rugged terrain can seriously hinder investigations.97 This illustrates incompleteness of spy satellites. It they were watching everything which is going on, everywhere in the world, they would be able to extract pictures of the plane’s flight, both before and after the point at which it disappeared from radar screens, to figure out if it got shot down, was hit by a meteor, or if something science fiction happened.

Malaysian Press Conference
Here is British Guardian link to Malaysian Press Conference.98

Debris in the water
There are many news stories about Singapore, Vietnam, US, and other searchers finding debris in the water, which they suspect may be parts of the MH370 plane, and there are many more stories saying that this or that found in the water, which was suspected to be parts of the plane, were in fact some unrelated debris.99 So far I have seen news stories about alleged: • Oil slicks several miles long100 • Debris field • Door to the plane • Windows from the plane • Life raft from the plane101

96 97

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/03/11/malaysian-plane-virtual-search-party-too-much-for-website/ http://blogs.wsj.com/five-things/2014/03/08/5-things-to-know-about-missing-malaysia-airlines-flightand-air-safety/ 98 http://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2014/mar/09/malaysian-airlines-families-prepare-worst-video
99

http://www.630wpro.com/common/more.php?m=58&ts=1394476508&article=2F1016ECA88D11E3B51E FEFDADE6840A&mode=2 http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/four-flew-with-false-id-aboard-malaysia-airlines-plane-thatvanished-over-south-china-sea/2014/03/09/4b0d8a8c-a763-11e3-b61e-8051b8b52d06_story.html 100 Oil slicks NOT from missing plane, attributed to some authorities. http://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/national-international/249237031.html http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-10/mysteries-of-deep-often-yield-when-jets-crash-overwater.html 101 This yellow object, in the water, NOT from missing plane, attributed to some authorities. http://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/national-international/249237031.html

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Tail section of the plane102

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Graphic Map: Debris some locations
Here is where I found this next image.103

http://www.thestar.com.my/News/World/2014/03/10/Vietnam-sends-helicopters-to-check-yellow-objectpossible-plane-life-raft--minister/ A floating "yellow object", that authorities believed could be a life raft from the jet, turned out to be a “moss-covered cap of a cable reel." http://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/national-international/249237031.html 102 http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=240501:mh370-foundat-last?-vietnam-searchers-find-pieces-of-door-airplane-tail&Itemid=2 103 http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/four-flew-with-false-id-aboard-malaysia-airlines-plane-thatvanished-over-south-china-sea/2014/03/09/4b0d8a8c-a763-11e3-b61e-8051b8b52d06_story.html

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Singapore clue turns into dead end
One promising lead has turned out to be a dead end. A "strange object" spotted by a Singaporean search plane, late Sunday afternoon March 9, is not debris from the missing jetliner, a U.S. official familiar with the issue told CNN.104 A U.S. reconnaissance plane "thought it saw something like debris but it was a false alarm," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. 105

Vietnam armed forces discover clues
Vietnamese officials are reporting oil slicks 6 and 9 miles long, East of Vietnam in the South China Sea, and a column of smoke, which could be connected to the missing MH370 plane. This was first sighted by the Vietnamese air rescue forces. Some of that oil is now in the hands of Malaysia, which has sent it for analysis, by the Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency,(MMEA), to see if it is the same as the fuel which was on the missing plane, as opposed to oil which can come from shipping. 106 MMEA is one of the Malaysian organizations which has sent ships and planes to participate in the search. This oil slick discovery led to much of the search and rescue effort being focused where Vietnam reported this clue. Then an object was spotted by a Vietnamese navy rescue aircraft at about 7:30 a.m. ET Sunday (6:30 p.m. local South China sea time). Due to the dark, the navy aircraft could not get close enough to identify the floating object, and was recalled to base. Vietnam's navy next day got close to the floating object about 80 kilometers (50 miles) southwest of Vietnam's Tho Chu Island, which is located off the country's southwest coast in the Gulf of Thailand, Vietnam National Search and Rescue Committee Spokesman Hung Nguyen told CNN.107 Vietnam authorities think that object is a door of the plane.108 It was found in the same area as the giant oil slicks. Ships from Vietnam maritime police are also headed to that area. However, Thailand's navy shifted its focus in the search away from the Gulf of Thailand and the South China Sea, Thai Navy Rear Adm. Karn Dee-ubon told CNN Sunday
104

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/09/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/ http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/09/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/index.html?hpt=hp_t1 105 http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/09/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/ 106 http://www.nst.com.my/latest/font-color-red-missing-mh370-font-result-of-oil-trace-expected-by-noontomorrow-mmea-1.504696?ModPagespeed=noscript 107 http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/09/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/ 108 http://www.boston.com/news/world/asia/2014/03/09/air-force-chief-malaysia-jet-may-have-turnedback/TLZ5W65xU3mLsTVxD3lA5N/story.html

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March-9. The shift came at the request of the Malaysians, who are looking into possibilities the plane turned around and could have gone down in the Andaman Sea, near Thailand's border, Karn said.109

Boeing 777 reputation
The Boeing 777 is popular among airlines because of its capability for going great distances, and a reputation for great safety.110 Besides the Asiana crash July 2013 in San Francisco,111 the only other serious incident with the 777 was January 2008 when a British Airways jet landed 305 meters short of the runway at London’s Heathrow airport. Boeing statement about the MH370 incident.112 Some aircraft mishaps have nothing to do with the aircraft, and everything to do with human action. Common factors in plane crashes are poor weather, pilot error and airworthiness. Weather conditions on this flight are said to have been good and the pilot, 53, who had more than 18,000 flying hours behind him, had been employed by the airline since 1981. Malaysia Airlines has a good safety record and the jet, a Boeing 777-200ER, is said to be one of the safest because of its modern technology. One of the plane's wingtips was clipped in an incident while taxiing in 2012 but it was repaired and certified as safe. David Learmount, Flight Global's operations and safety editor, told BBC News: "Today's aeroplanes are incredibly reliable and you do not get some sudden structural failure in flight. It just doesn't happen. It just won't happen."113

Better Black Box technology may be a false hope
Most aircraft have two black boxes (actually I think they are orange in color): • Instrument readings • Cockpit conversation Both for a couple hours prior to any incident. There is also the concept of this info going to an artificial satellite, so it is available if the plane is lost, both to help expedite finding the plane, and to learn from the info in case the actual black boxes cannot be recovered.114

109 110

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/09/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/ http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/missing-jet/boeing-777-boasts-nearly-spotless-safety-record-n47566 111 Details here: http://www.scribd.com/doc/152562460/Boeing-777-crash-San-Francisco-2013-July 112 http://www.boeing.com/assets/images/feature_948x432/malaysia_statement_948x432.jpg 113 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26503141 114 http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304020104579429233516692014?mg=reno64wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB100014240527023040201045794292335166 92014.html

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I wonder about the risk of this getting hacked.115 It seems to me that 99% of new technology gets launched with no thought whatsoever to security, until there is some disaster due to that negligence. It is much easier, and cheaper, to incorporate security into something new, at the design stage, than to add security after the fact. In fact, for some technology, it is impossible to add good security later. We see this in the epidemic of computer breaches for example. IBM designed good security, but the market place was not interested in security, just in lowest prices, and damn the consequences, such as jobs exported, so the IBM PC ceased to have anything to do with IBM security. There are claims that this would be an enormous expense, to protect against a rare event, but we still manage to have over 100 air crashes each year, according to multiple sources, but I am unable to determine if this includes drones and military shoot downs in war zones. The Atlantic shares this:116 Michael Planey, a Washington-area consultant who has worked for several airlines and did air-safety investigations for the Air Force, writes in to explain why this is a false hope. Would realtime streaming of black box data end the mystery of what happened to MH370? Probably not. Here’s why. As the search for Malaysia Airlines flight 370 continues in earnest, many have called for the implementation of realtime streaming of black-box data. It is an understandable reaction to an inexplicable event: that a modern airliner could simply vanish without a trace. The thinking is that real-time black-box data would make it possible to locate the aircraft more quickly; to understand what had happened to the aircraft causing it to lose contact with air traffic control; to perhaps prevent an aircraft safety incident through monitoring of aircraft systems and highlighting suspect or anomalous data. But is that really the case with this aircraft and this flight? Unfortunately, I suspect not. The last loss of a commercial airliner in trans-oceanic flight was Air France Flight 447 on June 1, 2009. In that case, some system failure reports and warnings were transmitted via ACARS [JF note: a data transmission system linking in-flight airplanes with ground stations] in the last moments before the aircraft crashed into the Atlantic. This data was useful in the preliminary understanding of the event, but it was not enough data to paint the complete picture of the complex system failures and flight crew actions that led to the crash, nor prevent it from happening.117 In that case, the data transmission was of no particular use in locating the debris field. Rather, traditional air traffic control and radar data was used to pinpoint the last known location of Flight 447 and the search began at that point. The aircraft wreckage was located by the next day in the expected area. In the current case of MH 370, the
115 116

http://www.scribd.com/doc/131970430/Hackers-Airplanes http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2014/03/why-malaysia-airlines-370-remains-soprofoundly-mysterious-and-why-a-better-black-box-wouldnt-help/284407/ 117 Can we increase the info which is included in black box data records?

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same type of location data is available, but the search has been fruitless. This opens the up possibilities of the aircraft’s fate to scenarios where data -streaming would again be ineffective. Given that the Boeing 777-200 aircraft on this flight had been recently inspected and operated without incident over the prior ten days, there are no red flags leading to a likely cause of the disappearance. Even though this aircraft was equipped with an ACARS system like the Air France flight, no relevant data transmissions were made. This reasonably points to a thoroughly unforeseen, catastrophic event (such as TWA Flight 800) or perhaps a deliberate action such as hijacking, terrorist action or even flight crew suicide. In the case of the immediate, catastrophic event, data streaming would likely cease at the moment of the event. Either a complete loss of electrical power would disrupt the data stream or a mechanical break in the aircraft systems would prevent data transmission. Further, if an aircraft was in an out-of-control attitude such as a steep dive, a spin or a hard roll, maintaining a direct link with a satellite would be nearly impossible, thus again breaking the data stream and rendering the system incapable. If the demise of MH370 is due to a deliberate action, realtime data-streaming is again unlikely to yield definitive answers. If hijackers were sophisticated enough to completely cut-off all communications (radios, ACARS, transponder, ADS-B) then it would stand to reason that the data link would be cut off in the same manner. Further, the detonation of a bomb would not show a prior indication of the event in the flight data-stream. Perhaps, the very slight chance of aircraft depressurization or loss of fuel volume would be detected at the moment, but it is unlikely that such a signal could be successfully transmitted before the communications system was rendered useless. The “black-box” is actually a pair of boxes. The Flight Data Recorder secures information from a host of flight systems and the flight management computer. The Cockpit Voice Recorder captures the last 30 to 60 minutes of dialogue in the cockpit and adds significant context to the FDR data. In the investigation of AF447, the CVR was critical to understanding why the flight crew took the actions they did, even as the data could show what those actions were. Capture of both information streams would be necessary for a full picture of what was happening at the critical moment. If days of intensive air and sea search efforts have yielded no clues, it is hard to believe that the aircraft and its crew were capable of providing any more useful information at the time the aircraft disappeared.

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Stolen passports
The stolen passports thread leads to speculation that terrorism may have taken the MH370 plane down.118 While it is a serious issue, that most nations are permitting passengers to travel on stolen passports, the most important issues initially are: 1. Locate the missing plane. 2. Rescue anyone who can be rescued. 3. Locate the black boxes. 4. Figure out, for sure, what caused the plane to disappear. With multi-tasking, there can be an effort to address the issue of billions of lights a year possible with stolen passports. This reality cannot be news to the industry of airlines and airport security. But this incident has illuminated it for the world, of people who pay attention to the news. I predict politicians, of a few nations, will take action to mandate better cooperation with Interpol, but this will continue to be an international scandal. Fox News claimed two of the passengers were traveling with stolen passports.119 This was on the first day, when the plane was reported missing. Within another day, other news media confirmed this, and expanded on that thread. 120

Interpol data base of stolen passports
Interpol has a data base of stolen passports supplied to them by 180 nations. (There are over 200 nations on Earth.) However, very few nations use this data base to verify passports. The stolen passports are one each Austrian and Italian, both stolen in Thailand. Starting in 2002 following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, INTERPOL created its Stolen and Lost Travel Documents (SLTD) database to help countries secure their borders and protect their citizens from terrorists and other dangerous criminals known to use fraudulent travel documents. Since then INTERPOL's database has grown from a few thousand passports and searches to more than 40 million entries and more than 800 million searches per year, averaging 60,000 hits. The US searches this database annually more 250 million times; the UK more than 120 million times and the UAE more than 50 million times. Unfortunately, few member countries systematically search INTERPOL's databases to determine whether a passenger is using a stolen or lost travel document to board a plane.

118

http://news.yahoo.com/stolen-european-passports-missing-plane150519884.html;_ylt=AwrBEiJtMxtTYW8AUjTQtDMD http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/2014-03-11/security-breaches-eyed-search-mas-370-continues 119 http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/03/08/malaysia-airlines-loses-contact-with-plane-carrying-23people/ 120 http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/malaysian-flight-mystery-reveals-loophole-passportchecks/story?id=22838660 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/08/malaysia-flight-passports_n_4925774.html

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“If Malaysia Airways and all airlines worldwide were able to check the passport details of prospective passengers against INTERPOL's database, then we would not have to speculate whether stolen passports were used by terrorists to board MH 370. We would know that stolen passports were not used by any of the passengers to board that flight,” said Interpol Secretary General Noble. “For the sake of innocent passengers who go through invasive security measures prior to boarding flights in order to get to their destination safely, I sincerely hope that governments and airlines worldwide will learn from the tragedy of missing flight MH 370 and begin to screen all passengers’ passports prior to allowing them to board flights.” In a statement posted online March 8, Interpol said that prior to the takeoff of Flight 370, no country had checked with them about the Austrian or Italian passports possibly used by two passengers on the flight. If anyone had, Interpol could have told them that the Austrian passport had been reported stolen in 2012 and the Italian in 2013. 121 The two stolen passports belonged to: Austrian Christian Kozel; and Luigi Maraldi of Italy.122 So how simple is it to check with Interpol? 1. Create a list of passports used at a particular airport … include which flights those people headed for. 2. Transmit that list to Interpol. 3. Interpol respond PASS (let passenger go, no problem) or STOP info = intercept that passenger, and why. 4. Interpol also notify nation of the stolen passport, with what is known so far. While some might list the airline as a proverbial weak link in the chain of security safeguards, carriers can do little to prevent such breaches other than follow the required protocol of inspecting the passports for validity, visual alterations or forgeries, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). “Border control and security are the responsibility of the states,”IATA said in a written statement sent to AIN.123 “Airlines do not have access to the Lost and Stolen Travel Documents (LSTD) database.124 Furthermore, airlines are required by more than 60
121

http://www.interpol.int/News-and-media/News/2014/N2014-038 http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/malaysian-flight-mystery-reveals-loophole-passportchecks/story?id=22838660 122 http://www.boston.com/news/world/asia/2014/03/09/air-force-chief-malaysia-jet-may-have-turnedback/TLZ5W65xU3mLsTVxD3lA5N/story.html http://www.nst.com.my/latest/font-color-red-missing-mh370-font-thai-police-target-passport-ring-invanished-flight-probe-1.504785?ModPagespeed=noscript 123 http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/2014-03-11/security-breaches-eyed-search-mas-370-continues 124 This statement is contrary to the understanding I came to when reading at the Interpol site, that this info is available to nations, hotels, airlines, the entire travel industry, and other industries where passports are used for identification purposes, such as banks.

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States (including China) to provide Advance Passenger Information (API) to border control officials in advance of the flight to enable immigration officials to review passenger information for discrepancies.” This is not uniquely a Malaysian problem. Interpol reported that last year passengers were able to board planes more than a billion times around the world without having their passports screened against Interpol's databases. Thailand has criminal organization(s) involved in passport theft, then re-use to other criminals. The FBI is helping the Thai police deal with this challenge. 125 Also see: • 2014 Feb 24 ID THEFT facilitated via stolen passports thanks to inept government and travel industry ignoring Interpol resources.

Misunderstood Technology
I remember during the first Gulf War (the one to rescue Kuwait) where news organizations sent people to military press conferences, who were totally ignorant about the military, so info was presented to them, watched by the enemy, which caused the enemy to not expect attacks where they actually came. Similarly, after this mishap, we have people at press conferences, both the spokespersons and some reporters, who seem to lack basic understanding of the technology infrastructure involved, leading to misleading stories. Similarly there are ordinary witnesses, who let their personal misconceptions cloud accuracy of reporting. I have seen it in computer trouble shooting. We all know something has gone wrong, but instead of witness victim reporting what is known factually, they report what they think is happening, which may be wrong thinking. According to a China.org.cn report, 19 families signed a statement saying that dialing their loved ones' phones leads to a ring, rather than going straight to voicemail, as one would expect of a phone in airplane mode or otherwise unable to be reached.126 But it's not that simple. When you hit the call button on some phones, a ringing tone begins immediately. But that is at your end. That might not be happening at the other end. The phone ring at your end is to show that the network is looking for the phone of the person whom you are calling. If the network can't find the phone at the other end, the call terminates.

125

http://thediplomat.com/2014/03/thai-police-fbi-investigate-passport-ring-with-ties-to-missing-malaysiaairlines-jet/ 126 http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/missing-jet/malaysia-airlines-passengers-phones-ringing-maybe-notn49371

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Equipment on the plane periodically sends out info about how it is doing. This goes to the airline, and the equipment manufacturers, not to Air Traffic Control, although I imagine military and hackers could listen in. There is confusion about radar. I may be mistaken, but I believe Air Traffic Control (ATC) operators see planes on their screen thanks to transponders combined with radar location. They might not see things in the sky which do not have transponders, broadcasting from the plane. Meanwhile military radar sees what’s there, but may not know what it is they are seeing. Radar does not see 100%. It can be blocked by hills, with planes not in line of sight of any radar facility, flying low, below curvature of the Earth, where radar can see. 127

Conspiracy Theories
One person’s reasonable explanation is thought by someone else to b e a conspiracy theory.128 Some explanations seem very far fetched.129 Remember that the USA does not have a monopoly on AWAKs. • A terrorist attack sounds plausible. There are clues both for and against this notion. o Pro: the stolen passports. o Con: but stolen passports are a dime a dozen over there. o Pro: transponder went off, and plane disappeared from radar. o Con: that does not prove anything. o Pro: evidence the plane went WAY off course. o Con: that can also be explained via hacking. • Hijacked then landed somewhere. o Pro: the phones of passengers connect. o Pro: the lack of debris provable to be from the plane. o Con: there is no evidence either of a hijacking, just inferences. • Hostile nation or terrorists shoot down plane. o Con: surely this would have shown up on radar. o Pro: remember the plane from USA to France, crashed in Atlantic off US East coast, where people saw a streak of red between plane and sea, and thought it was a missile. Official explanation that was part of the plane dead due to on board fuel tank explosion. Either way, there was no radar to prove what happened.

127

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/11/world/asia/q-and-a-on-the-disappearance-of-malaysia-airlinesflight-mh370.html?_r=0 128 http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/World/2014/03/10/21525106.html http://www.smh.com.au/world/missing-malaysia-airlines-plane-the-conspiracy-theories-20140311hvh9t.html http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/malaysia-airlines-plane-mh370-latest-conspiracy-theory-were-freescalesemiconductor-top-employees-1440097 129 http://generationnwo.blogspot.com/2014/03/malaysia-flight-370-hijacked-by-us-air.html?m=1

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Yes, a UFO could have come down and gobbled the plane, for an alien abduction, but I include some speculation within conspiracy theories, until I see concrete supporting evidence.130

Science Fiction
A lot of stories, which are described as science fiction, do not meet the literary standards of science fiction, but are better described as pseudo science, or the common sense of people who have no common sense about logic or science. Science Fiction explanations are explanations which may sound credible to some people, but sound to be total fantasy literature thinking to others, such as: • Meteor or meteorite fell from outer space & hit the plane. I believe that a plane has been hit once before in history. Shouldn’t radar see this coming, warn planes to get out of the way? • Does anyone still believe in the Bermuda Triangle?131 Supposedly there are other places like that in the world, at least one in Asia. I think the Asian one got explained through underwater volcanoes. • A UFO gobbled them up for alien abduction. • There are lots of Japanese films about some under-water monsters, which can reach up and grab an aeroplane. I don’t pretend to either understand them, or believe them.

Time line
MST = Time in Malaysia132 Many news media have confused pieces of info, while some are making a good effort to try to correlate info, including: • Britain’s Mirror133 but is that British time they are using? • Wikipedia134 This is not a time line, but a series of updates from the Guardian of Britain.135 BBC also provides snapshots of what is known so far, for the various threads.136 This plane was involved in an earlier collision which damaged a wing tip, and I have read a story confirming that was fully repaired. 2013 November: the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) warned airlines to look out for corrosion under the skin of the Boeing 777’s fuselage. I have yet to see any news
130 131

http://www.amtvmedia.com/blown-up-missing-malaysian-airlines-flight-an-act-of-terrorism/ http://www.salon.com/2014/03/11/behind_the_modern_fascination_in_missing_planes/ 132 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_in_Malaysia 133 http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/missing-malaysia-airlines-flight-live-3219331 134 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_370 135 http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/09/malaysia-airlines-missing-plane-investigation-widenslive 136 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26510027#sa-ns_mchannel=rss&ns_source=PublicRSS20-sa

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clarifying whether Malaysian Airlines paid attention to this warning, and in fact checked the now missing plane, for this risk.137 However Boeing says this warning did not apply to this particular plane,138 and Malaysian Airlines says the plane was fully serviced and passed all maintenance checks before take off, and for each of the 10 prior days.139 Flight MH370, a Boeing 777-200, departed Kuala Lumpur International Airport at 00:41 (wee hours) MST (UTC+8) on 8 March 2014 for a scheduled six-hour flight to Beijing Capital International Airport. It reached cruising altitude of 35,000 feet at 1.01 am. To aid maintenance, most airlines use the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS), which automatically collates and files four technical reports during every flight so that engineers can spot problems. These reports are sent via VHF radio or satellite at take-off, during the climb, at some point while cruising, and on landing. Malaysian Airlines has this system, but has not yet revealed to the news media whether they learned anything useful from it, to help with the search or investigation. The maker of the missing Boeing 777's Trent 800 engines, Rolls Royce, received two data reports from flight MH370 at its global engine health monitoring centre in Derby, UK, where it keeps real-time tabs on its engines in use. One was broadcast as MH370 took off from Kuala Lumpur International Airport, the other during the 777's climb out towards Beijing.140 The USA says there is the transponder, and the data reporting system, which I assume refers to the above ACARS, and they both were shut down, but not simultaneously, which sounds like deliberate as opposed to system failure, thru accident or malfunction. • 1.07 am, the data reporting system shut down. 141 Both Boeing and Rolls Royce have said this was the last they got any info from MH370.142 • 1.21 am, the transponder, which reports location and altitude, shut down. Subang Air Traffic Control (ATC) Centre (in Malaysia) lost contact with the plane at 01:22 MST,143 while over the Gulf of Thailand.144 The last known radar position was N6.92 E103.58, which the airline says is about 120 miles (90nm) northeast of Kota Bharu
137

http://www.theguardian.com/world/blog/2014/mar/12/mh370-search-extended-into-andaman-sea-liveupdates#block-5320517be4b0ea23600ea294 138 http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/12/us-malaysia-airplane-faa-idUSBREA2B1YN20140312 139 http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/13/malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-media-claims 140 http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn25201-malaysian-plane-sent-out-engine-data-beforevanishing.html#.UyAzfUJ_tOh 141 http://abcnews.go.com/m/story?id=22894802 142 http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/03/140313-malaysia-airline-flight-370-missing-radarblack-box/ 143 0.41 to 1.22 is 41 minutes. 144 Geographically, the Gulf of Thailand is bordered by Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam. If you look at a map of the Asian mainland, along the south coast from west to east, starting with the triangular India, there next is a long peninsula with Malaysia on the end, then there is a shorter peninsula with Vietnam on the end. The Gulf of Thailand is between those two peninsulas. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_of_Thailand

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(Malaysia). According to the airline, at this point in time, the plane had enough fuel to fly for 7 more hours.145 Starting the following morning, Malaysian Airlines made a series of public statements regarding what they had found out so far.146 The military have radar capabilities not available to ATC. We have been hearing conflicting stories about what they found out. There was also a village which had a jet plane fly over them very low, at a suspicious time for this jet to maybe be it. At 2.15 am Mar-8, said Malaysian officials on Wed Mar-12, the plane was detected by military radar, inside Thailand airspace, 200 miles NW of Penang. This story is now believed to be a false rumor.147 At 2.40 am Mar-8, the head of the Malaysian air force said on Tues Mar-11, military radar detected the plane, and he gave specific info about where it was detected, then Wed Mar-12 he denied that he had said any such thing. At 2.55 am Chinese scientists detected a seismic event, consistent with a plane hitting the ocean floor, near where MH370 disappeared from ATC view.148 In the days, which follow the loss of MH370, Malaysia acts very strangely. Keeping

their military radar data secret, seems to be more important to that country, than finding the plane. After several days of denying their info, they
share it with US and China authorities, then some of it leaks from US side, to explain US searching in Indian Ocean. The plane supposedly zig zagged between air traffic geographic way points, and went up down very rapidly to altitudes not normally used by such aircraft. There are also the indicators that the transponder and data had been turned off from being transmitted from the plane, and some contradictions between the military radar info, and the plane capabilities, that lead some people to not totally believe what they are being told. 149 It took a week after the plane went missing, for Malaysia to come to the conclusion that the plane had probably been hijacked,150 or in the words of their Prime Minister “deliberately diverted.”
145

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/new-twist-in-the-hunt-for-missing-plane/2014/03/13/dcee10daaae6-11e3-98f6-8e3c562f9996_graphic.html 146 http://www.malaysiaairlines.com/my/en/site/dark-site.html https://plus.google.com/+MalaysiaAirlines/posts?partnerid=gplp0 147 http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/new-twist-in-the-hunt-for-missing-plane/2014/03/13/dcee10daaae6-11e3-98f6-8e3c562f9996_graphic.html 148 http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/missing-jet/seismic-event-close-missing-jet-path-china-scientistsn52516 149 http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/15/world/asia/malaysia-military-radar.html?smid=tw-bna 150 http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=/article-xml/awx_03_15_2014_p0-672975.xml

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According to US sources, after this plane was lost on civilian radar, it continued to ping a satellite on an hourly basis, using the Boeing Airplane Health Management system for that purpose.151 However, after establishing contact with the satellite system, if the system was working properly, data should have been transmitted, but was not. However, there are more conflicting stories. For the system to work properly, the airline should have paid the satellite service in advance. It is alleged that the airline had opted out of having that service. This combined info (Malaysian radar, and the satellite pinging) led the USA to conclude the plane went down in the Indian Ocean (or had that ping system turned off there).152

Graphic Map: How far plane could have traveled, without refueling
Here is where I found that map. I was unable to shrink the graphic, so it could fit my page. You need to go to the link to see all of it.153

151 152

It is unclear to me whether this is part of ACARS or a separate system. http://abcnews.go.com/m/story?id=22894802 http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/13/malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-media-claims 153 http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/new-twist-in-the-hunt-for-missing-plane/2014/03/13/dcee10daaae6-11e3-98f6-8e3c562f9996_graphic.html

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Graphic Map: Debris found Mar-9 in Gulf of Thailand
Here is where I found the following graphic:154

The aircraft ceased all communications, with ground control, and the transponder signal was lost155 just before it was to be passed off from Subang ATC, to Ho Chi Minh Area Control Center, approx 40 minutes after take off.156 A day and a half later, the airline corrected this 1.22 time, of last communications, to become 1.30 MST, perhaps because ATC had requested another Malaysia Airlines flight, en route to Japan about half an hour ahead of MH370, to try to contact the unresponsive 777. That plane established contact with the crew of MH370 just after 01:30, but could not hear them clearly, describing them as "mumbling" I may be mistaken, but my understanding is that there are lots of planes in the sky, at various altitudes, heading in different directions. The transponder tells radar “I am such
154 155

http://avherald.com/h?article=4710c69b&opt=0 http://english.astroawani.com/videos/show/buletin-awani/how-accurate-is-flight-radar-24-27103 156 http://avherald.com/h?article=4710c69b&opt=0

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and such a plane” so if the transponder fails, the radar may still see the plane, but not know what plane it is. Thus, it is possible that there were a series of malfunctions, in which the transponder failed some time before there were other failures. If it had been hijacked, the hijackers may have known to turn off the transponder. The plane was reported missing at 02:40 MST.157 This was by ATC telling the airline. It is possible that airline personnel misconstrued what ATC was telling them, and thought it disappeared from radar at 2.40, not 1.22. If this was the case, then there was time for it to travel over Vietnam, beyond the Gulf of Thailand. Mar 9th 2014 14:43 MST, the airline added, that still no evidence of the aircraft has been found more than 24 hours after last contact with the aircraft and corrected the time of last contact with the aircraft to 1:30 MST. I did not know if Malaysia and Vietnam are on same time zone or an hour or so difference. So I Googled it. • Vietnam uses Indo China Time Zone = UTC + 7 hours. • Malaysia is UTC + 8 hours • Thus, if my math correct Vietnam is MST – 1 hour • Or add 1 hour to Vietnam local time to get Malaysia local time Malaysia Airlines story is contrary to what Vietnam thinks they found … oil slicks, floating objects, consistent with where the plane might have gone down, if it was still airborne at 1.30 am when the Japan bound plane made contact, and if it had continued flying in the general direction of its flight path. At about noon local time (1 pm MST) Vietnamese search personnel reported they detected an ELT signal about 20nm south of the coast of Ca Mau. 158 Vietnam officials subsequently stated that they have not yet detected flight MH-370. I think that means March 8, from context of other info at the source. Here are: • Photo of debris field found March 10 • Suspicious object found by Vietnamese search • Maps of where debris were located

Graphic Map: Debris found Mar 9-10 around Vietnam
The next graphic was located here.159
157

Subang is an affluent residential town located in between Shah Alam and Subang Jaya, Selangor, Malaysia. 158 I assume NM means nautical miles. 159 http://avherald.com/h?article=4710c69b https://plus.google.com/u/0/103126936056115762524/posts

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Ways a plane can communicate to the ground
I have updated my understandings, thanks to the National Geographic, 160 but some info here includes my speculations as to what may be possible, which complicate problemsolving. • Transponder helps Air Traffic Control (ATC) by communicating: location; altitude; direction; speed; identity. ATC can then use identity in radio communications to tell which aircraft to maneuver to avoid each other. 161 A transponder can go off as part of a failure or malfunction, or plane can drop below line of sight with radar which is reading the signal, or it can be turned off by hijackers or other criminal reasons. a. Hijackers typically turn this off. Sophisticated hijackers can alter the “who am I” portion of the signal, and turn it back on, so ATC sees the plane, but thinks it is a different one than what went missing. b. We know a plane can be hacked. I do not know if this includes the transponder. We know Global Positioning System (GPS) can be hacked. I suspect, but do not know if a transponder gets some of its info from GPS. • Radar does not have 100% coverage over oceans away from nations land masses, so aircraft communicate with ATC and their own airline operations personnel, using high-frequency radio. • Most ATC use transponder connected to radar, do not have the systems to read the primary radar. The military can read the primary radar, but might not be getting transponder history, to know for sure the identity of a plane they are seeing. About an hour after ATC lost MH370, the military saw a plane flying towards the Malacca Strait. It is not yet clear to me whether they have the history
160

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/03/140313-malaysia-airline-flight-370-missing-radarblack-box/ 161 ATC systems can sound alarms if 2 or more plane’s paths appear to be getting too close to each other. This is to help potentially overworked ATC personnel concentrate on what’s normally most critical.

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of radar info to tell definitively that is the same plane, or if they are speculating that it is. a. We know ATC can be hacked. There was a US Dept of Transportation Inspector General report about that a few years ago, when all but 4 of US ATC centers were vulnerable to this. Hopefully some have been fixed since. But we don’t know if ATC around the world are equally vulnerable. On board computers capture data about the workings of the plane, and transmit updates periodically to the airline, and manufacturers of the hardware. There can be more than one such system on any given aircraft. Typically this info is transmitted via satellite, to facilitate maintenance scheduling, and aid the manufacturers in seeing how their systems are functioning. a. The plane was pinging the satellite but not transmitting any data, which implies someone turned off the transmission of data, but missed the process of connecting for the transmission, and during that time the plane was still in operation.162 There are two black boxes (actually orange in color): one for most recent conversations in the cockpit, and one for info about the airplane systems. If a plane crashes on land, they broadcast “here I am” beacon on s special radio frequency. If a plane crashes in the sea, they have a pinger system easy to locate via sonar, with batteries to keep them going for 30 days.

Investigative aid
NTSB investigators landed in Malaysia within a couple days of the missing plane.
National Transportation Safety Board investigators who traveled to Kuala Lumpur over the weekend are assisting Malaysian authorities who are leading the search efforts for the Boeing 777 that went missing March-8. Investigators with expertise in air traffic control and radar are providing technical assistance to the Malaysian authorities who are working on locating the missing jetliner.

Investigating stolen passports
The two passengers who used the stolen passports appear to have bought their tickets together, because the ticket numbers are contiguous.163 Were the two tickets paid for, in cash at a beach resort, by an Iranian man known as Mr Ali?164 ‘‘I can confirm that we have the visuals of these two people on CCTV,’’ Malaysian Transport Minister Hishammuddin Hussein said at a news conference late Sunday, adding that the footage was being examined, by intelligence agents. 165
162

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/14/mh370-search-for-missing-plane-extends-to-theindian-ocean-live-updates 163 http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/09/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/ 164 http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/03/10/mh370s-new-mystery-who-is-mr-ali-and-why-did-he-buytickets-for-passengers-with-stolen-passports/ 165 http://www.boston.com/news/world/asia/2014/03/09/air-force-chief-malaysia-jet-may-have-turnedback/TLZ5W65xU3mLsTVxD3lA5N/story.html

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I have now seen news reports claiming:166 • Pictures of the people traveling on the stolen passports: o Looked Asian; o Looked European. These claims may be racist, since people from various backgrounds can become citizens of different geographies. Their fingerprints are also being distributed to investigators from different nations.167 It is now believed that the two men traveled to Malaysia on Iranian passports.168 But there is some reporting that maybe those photos are not of the right people. 169 Police in Malaysia said they believe Pouria Nour Mohammad Mehrdad, 19, was intending to migrate to Germany and is not suspected of having links to terrorism groups. Gen. Khalid Abu Bakar, Malaysia's police chief inspector, said police had spoken to the man's mother, who knew her son was using a stolen passport on his attempted journey, via Beijing, to join her in Frankfurt. Interpol identified the second man as Delavar Seyed Mohammadreza, 29. He entered and left Malaysia at the same time and date as Mehrdad. Southeast Asia is widely regarded as a hub for illegal migration.170 Gen. Khalid Abu Bakar, Malaysia's police chief inspector, said authorities had "no prior intelligence on activities of terrorists" in connection with the flight, but that did not mean they were ruling out terrorism. He said the police investigation into the missing flight was focused on four areas: • • • • hijacking, sabotage, personal problems among crew and passengers, and psychological problems among crew or passengers.

For example, police would investigate "if somebody on the flight had bought huge sums of insurance," so their family could gain, or were in severe debt.

166 167

http://whereismh370.com/post/79311978423/summary-mh370-fact-checked-and-debunked-as-of-march http://abcnews.go.com/International/still-no-clues-missing-plane/story?id=22842452 168 http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/03/11/malaysia-airlines-investigation/6282557/ 169 http://airnation.net/hangar/threads/aviation-security-international-is-this-true-flt-mh-370.9950/ http://airnation.net/hangar/threads/iranian-passenger-photos-on-malaysia-777-a-fake-check-this-outphoto.9976/ 170 http://www.salon.com/2014/03/11/behind_the_modern_fascination_in_missing_planes/

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Investigators why plane mishap
Once the plane is located, assuming it is located, that location determines which country will lead the investigation, and that country releases any details. The US has sent teams of investigators to assist, including people from: • Boeing • FAA • FBI • NTSB171 The US FBI is participating in the investigation of the two passengers traveling on stolen passports.

China
Guo Shaochun, deputy head of the Department of Consular Affairs with China's Foreign Ministry, also the head of a joint working group sent by Chinese government to Malaysia after the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 is interviewed on March 10, 2014, in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. A working group with 13 members composed of officials with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Public Security, Ministry of Transport and Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) has arrived at Malaysia for handling the aftermath of the missing Malaysian Airlines flight Monday night, March-10. 172

Disaster notes continued in more documents
Time Line of critical infrastructure disasters are broken into related documents named: • CI Boom Analysis – Lessons which should be learned.173 • CI Boom 0 thru 1999174 • CI Boom 2000 to 2006175 • CI Boom 2007176 • CI Boom 2008 to 2009177 • CI Boom 2010 to 2011178 • CI Boom 2012179 • CI Boom 2013 Jan-Mar180 • CI Boom 2013 Apr181
171 172

http://www.aero-news.net/index.cfm?do=main.textpost&id=7ef33210-7691-4547-8ae3-25075046e77c

http://www.google.com/hostednews/getty/article/ALeqM5hLBDgupyysEJGdCVV1UO0oUAtOvw?docId= 477717515 173 http://www.scribd.com/doc/114094060/CI-Boom-Analysis 174 http://www.scribd.com/doc/203317455/CI-Boom-0-thru-1999 175 http://www.scribd.com/doc/203688481/CI-Boom-2000-to-2006 176 http://www.scribd.com/doc/204262969/CI-Boom-2007 177 http://www.scribd.com/doc/206714326/CI-Boom-2008-to-2009 178 http://www.scribd.com/doc/206962922/CI-Boom-2010-to-2011 179 http://www.scribd.com/doc/204042682/CI-Boom-2012 180 http://www.scribd.com/doc/204889417/CI-Boom-2013-Jan-to-March

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• • • • • •

Boeing 777 Asia 2014 Mar 08
CI Boom 2013 May-Dec182 Boeing 777 SF 2013 Jul 05183 CI Boom 2014 Jan W Va Water184 CI Boom 2014 Jan185 CI Boom 2014 Feb186 Boeing 777 Asia 2014 Mar 08187

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These critical infrastructure disaster history time line segments to be uploaded to same SCRIBD Critical Infrastructure collection.188 Revision history maintained in main parent analysis document, but at some point may get split into a separate doc.

181 182

http://www.scribd.com/doc/204575461/CI-Boom-2013-April http://www.scribd.com/doc/207356334/CI-Boom-2013-Mar-to-Dec 183 http://www.scribd.com/doc/152562460/Boeing-777-crash-San-Francisco-2013-July 184 http://www.scribd.com/doc/203973261/CI-Boom-2014-Jan-9-W-Va-Water 185 http://www.scribd.com/doc/207503705/CI-Boom-2014-Jan 186 http://www.scribd.com/doc/208253102/CI-Boom-2014-Feb 187 http://www.scribd.com/doc/211761342/Boeing-777-Asia-2014-Mar-08 188 http://www.scribd.com/collections/4108500/Critical-Infrastructure

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