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POLLING MEMORANDUM

FR: Fritz Wenzel, President, Wenzel Strategies LLC RE: Survey of Likely Voters in California’s 41st Congressional District

Wenzel Strategies is a national public opinion research firm based in Columbus, Ohio. Established in 2005, it conducts opinion research for clients in business, politics, media, government, and the non-profit sector. Its client list includes the leading names in conservative American politics today. It conducted a telephone survey of likely General Election voters in California’s 41st congressional district. The survey was conducted Feb. 28-Mar. 3, 2014 and included 618 respondents. The survey carries a confidence interval of 95% and a margin of error of +/- 3.92 percentage points.

The Wenzel Strategies survey in CA CD41 shows that voters are largely unhappy with the direction in which their national political leaders have taken the country, and that they are hungry for change. Just one in five – 20% – said they felt things in Washington were headed in the right direction, while 71% said things in DC are off on the wrong track. They give President Obama a favorable rating of 47%, while 51% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Democratic Party Congressional leader Nancy Pelosi, whose district includes most of the city of San Francisco, fares worse. Mark Takano, the incumbent Democrat in CD 41, is seen favorably by 44% of likely voters, while 29% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Another 28% of likely voters don’t know him well enough to have developed an opinion. Republican Steve Adams, a Riverside City Councilman, is seen favorably by 23% of voters and unfavorably by 19%. Another 58% said they didn’t know Adams well enough to have an opinion. Q: If you were voting today in the election for Congress representing our local area, and the candidates were Democrat Mark Takano and Republican Steve Adams, for whom would you vote?

Frequency

Percent

Valid Percent

Cumulative Percent

TAKANO ADAMS Valid NOT SURE Total

261 259 98 618

42.3 41.8 15.9 100.0

42.3 41.8 15.9 100.0

42.3 84.1 100.0

Takano not only has favorability numbers that are well below 50%, his job approval rating stands at 42% – a very dangerous level for any incumbent for any office. Compounding his problems are the fact that just 44% said he deserves to be re-elected, compared to 56% who said they think it is time for someone new to represent them in Washington. Before any campaign begins, in a prospective head –to–head ballot test between Takano and Adams, the race is a statistical dead heat at 42% for each man. Another 16% said they would be undecided on the question. Takano’s problems stem partly from the fact that he wins just 75% support among his political base of Democratic Party voters. By comparison, Adams wins 83% of Republicans. Adams also holds a slight lead among independent voters, 37% to 33%. Men favor Adams over Takano by a 47% to 39% edge, while women lean to Takano by a 46% to 36% advantage. Two out of every three voters said they were firm in their choice in the race, but Republicans were much more firm in their choice than were Democrats, as 73% of Republicans said they were firm, compared to 62% of Democrats who said the same thing. ###