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Copyright 2014

Colorado

February 17 - 20, 2014
HAI3226

400 Interviews
Margin of Error: +/- 4.9%

Hello, my name is __________ from HAI, a national research firm.
[IF LANDLINE] We're conducting a survey in Colorado to get people's opinions on important issues. This number was selected at random
and according to the research procedure, I would like to speak to the [ALTERNATE: YOUNGEST/OLDEST] [ALTERNATE: MAN/WOMAN] at this
address who is registered to vote.
[IF CELL PHONE] We're conducting a survey of cell phone users in Colorado to get people's opinions on important issues.

Since you are
on a cell phone, I can call you back if you are driving or doing anything else that requires your full attention. Can you talk safely and
privately now? [IF YES, CONTINUE. IF NO, SCHEDULE CALLBACK]

RESUME ASKING ALL RESPONDENTS
QB. Are you officially registered to vote in Colorado?

YES: Democrat ................................
27%
YES: Republican ................................
39
YES: Independent ................................
24
YES: Other ................................ 10
No/(Don’t know) ---------> TERMINATE
Definitely vote ................................80%
Probably vote ................................20
All other responses------> TERMINATE

QC. At the present time, are you officially registered to vote in that county in
Colorado? [IF YES] Regardless of how you might feel about the parties, or how you

intend to vote this year, are you officially registered as a Democrat, a Republican, an
Independent, or in some other way?

Q1. When it comes to politics, do you generally think of yourself as a Democrat, an

Independent or a Republican?
ASK IF DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN

Would you call yourself a strong [DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN] or a not very strong
[DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN]?

VOL:
VOL:

Strong Democrat ................................
19%
Weak Democrat................................8
Independent ................................ 32
Weak Republican ................................
12
Strong Republican ................................
24
(Green Party) ................................ (Other/Don't know) ................................
6
TOTAL DEMOCRAT ................................
27%
TOTAL INDEPENDENT ................................
32
TOTAL REPUBLICAN ................................
36

RESUME ASKING ALL RESPONDENTS
Q2. Now I'd like to ask your impressions of some people in public life. As I read each name, tell me whether your impression of that

person is very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don't recognize a name, just say so.
Here's the first one: [READ ITEM] Have you heard of him? [IF YES] Is your impression of that person very favorable, somewhat favorable,
somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable?
FAVORABLE
Very Some
• Mark Udall ................................................................14%
33
ROTATE

(Mixed)
2

UNFAVORABLE
Some
Very
13
13

(Can’t
rate)
12

Never
heard
12

RECOGNITION
Effective Total
75%
88%

TOTAL
Fav
Unfav
46%
27

• Barack Obama ................................................................
23%

22

1

9

42

3

-

97%

100%

44%

52

• Ken Buck ................................................................ 7%

13

2

13

10

14

41

45%

59%

20%

23

Q3. Mark Udall is running for another term in

the U.S. Senate this year. At this point,
would you most likely vote for Udall to serve another term in the U.S. Senate, or
would you most likely vote to replace him with a Republican? [IF CHOICE] Do you
strongly or only somewhat support [RE-ELECTING UDALL/REPLACING UDALL WITH A
REPUBLICAN]?

VOL:
VOL:

Likely
Definite
UDALL: Strongly ................................
22%
25%
UDALL: Somewhat ................................
14
12
REPUBLICAN: Somewhat ................................
11
9
REPUBLICAN: Strongly ................................
30
32
(Depends) ................................
9
10
(Don’t know) ................................ 14
11
TOTAL UDALL ................................
36%
TOTAL REPUBLICAN ................................
41

Q4. In particular, if the election for U.S. Senate were held today, the candidates are
[ROTATE:]
• Mark Udall, the Democrat, AND

• Ken Buck, the Republican,
for whom would you vote? [IF UNDECIDED, ASK] Who would you lean toward
supporting if the election were held today?

VOL:

37%
41

Likely
Definite
Udall ................................................................
44%
45%
(Lean Udall) ................................ 2
1
Buck ................................................................
40
40
(Lean Buck) ................................ 2
3
(Undecided) ................................ 12
11
TOTAL UDALL ................................46%
TOTAL BUCK ................................42

46%
43

Hickman Analytics, Inc.

HAI3226

Colorado

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Q5. In

the election for Governor later this year, the candidates are [ROTATE:]
• John Hickenlooper, the Democrat, AND
• Tom Tancredo, the Republican
If the election were held today, for whom would you vote? [IF UNDECIDED, ASK] Who
VOL:
would you lean toward supporting if the election were held today?

Likely
Definite
Hickenlooper ................................49%
47%
(Lean Hickenlooper) ................................
2
2
Tancredo ................................ 39
40
(Lean Tancredo)................................
2
2
(Undecided) ................................ 9
9
TOTAL HICKENLOOPER ................................
51%
49%
TOTAL TANCREDO ................................
40
42

Now for a few questions on other issues.
ROTATE ORDER OF ASKING Q6 and Q7/Q8
Q6. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly

oppose oil and natural gas extraction that uses hydraulic fracturing, sometimes
known as fracking?
VOL:

SUPPORT: Strongly................................
35%
SUPPORT: Somewhat ................................
25
OPPOSE: Somewhat ................................
13
OPPOSE: Strongly ................................
16
(Don't know) ................................ 12
TOTAL SUPPORT ................................
60%
TOTAL OPPOSE ................................
28

Q7. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly

oppose the construction of the Keystone XL oil pipeline across Montana, South
Dakota, and Nebraska to bring oil from Canada and the Northern U.S. to refineries in
Texas?

VOL:

SUPPORT: Strongly................................
40%
SUPPORT: Somewhat ................................
26
OPPOSE: Somewhat ................................
10
OPPOSE: Strongly ................................
13
(Don't know) ................................ 11
TOTAL SUPPORT ................................
66%
TOTAL OPPOSE ................................
23

ASK IF SUPPORT KEYSTONE [N = 264, MoE = 6.0%]
Q8. For this question, assume that President Obama denies the permit to construct

the Keystone XL pipeline. Would Obama denying the permit to construct the
Keystone XL pipeline make you much more likely, somewhat more likely, somewhat
less likely, or much less likely to vote for Mark Udall for U.S. Senate?

VOL:
VOL:

MORE LIKELY: Much ................................
8%
MORE LIKELY: Somewhat ................................
12
LESS LIKELY: Somewhat ................................
15
LESS LIKELY: Much ................................
37
(No difference) ................................
19
(Don't know) ................................ 10
TOTAL MORE LIKELY................................
19%
TOTAL LESS LIKELY ................................
52

RESUME ASKING ALL RESPONDENTS
Q9. Looking ahead, how important are energy issues, including the Keystone XL

pipeline, in terms of how you will vote in this year’s election? Are they very
important, somewhat important, not very important, or not important at all in
determining how you will vote?

VOL:
VOL:

Very important ................................41%
Somewhat important ................................
43
Not very important ................................
9
Not important at all ................................
6
(Depends) ................................ 1
(Don't know) ................................ 1
TOTAL IMPORTANT ................................
84%
TOTAL NOT IMPORTANT ................................
15

Now I would like to ask you a few final questions for statistical purposes only.
D100. Sex.

Male................................................................
50%
Female ................................................................
50

VOL:

18-24 ................................................................
8%
25-29 ................................................................
7
30-34 ................................................................
9
35-39 ................................................................
9
40-44 ................................................................
8
45-49 ................................................................
10
50-54 ................................................................
6
55-59 ................................................................
8
60-64 ................................................................
9
65+ ................................................................
24
(Refused) ................................
2

VOL:

Liberal ................................................................
18%
Somewhat liberal ................................
13
Moderate ................................ 18
Somewhat conservative ................................
21
Conservative ................................27
(Don’t know) ................................ 4

D101. What is your age?

D105. When it comes to politics, do you generally think of yourself as liberal,

somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative or conservative?

TOTAL LIBERAL ................................
31%
TOTAL CONSERVATIVE ................................
48
D510. Do you have a landline telephone?
VOL:

Yes ................................................................
68%
No ................................................................
31
(Don't know/Not sure) ................................
1

Hickman Analytics, Inc.

HAI3226

Colorado

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VOL:

Yes ................................................................
87%
No................................................................
12
(Don't know/Not sure) ................................1

VOL:

Landline only ................................................................
13%
Landline mostly ................................................................
13
Both ................................................................
22
Cell mostly................................................................
20
Cell only ................................................................
32
(Don't know) ................................................................
*

D511. Do you have a mobile telephone?

D512. Would you say you mainly use your landline telephone, mainly use your mobile

phone, or do you use both equally?

TOTAL LANDLINE ................................ 26%
TOTAL CELL................................................................
52
D300. And just to make sure we have a representative sample of voters, could you please
tell me your race? [IF NECESSARY] Well, most people consider themselves black or white?

VOL:
VOL:

Black ................................................................
3%
White ................................................................
79
(Other) ................................................................
13
(Don’t know/Refused) ................................5

VOL:

Yes ................................................................
12%
No................................................................
84
(Don't know/Refused) ................................4

D301. Do you consider yourself a Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish-speaking American?

Thank you for taking the time to complete this interview.

Personal popularity of U.S. Senate candidates
Mark Udall
Total CR/
Unfav NH

Net
Fav

Total
Fav

Ken Buck
Total CR/
Unfav NH

Net
Fav

Total recognition
Mark
Ken
Udall
Buck

Effective recognition
Mark
Ken
Udall
Buck

Total

Total
Fav

TOTAL

400

46%

27

25

20

20%

23

55

-2

88%

59%

75%

45%

Definite voters

319

49%

30

19

18

21%

26

51

-6

92%

62%

81%

49%

REGION
Denver County
Denver Metro
Denver Total
Colorado Springs/Pueblo
Northeast
West

56
117
173
110
53
64

63%
44%
50%
40%
51%
45%

16
27
24
32
23
30

20
26
24
26
26
23

46
17
26
8
28
15

9%
20%
17%
24%
26%
20%

36
20
25
19
36
13

53
60
58
55
38
62

-27
1
-8
5
-11
7

89%
84%
85%
89%
90%
89%

62%
54%
56%
59%
81%
48%

80%
74%
76%
74%
74%
77%

47%
40%
42%
45%
62%
38%

RACE
White
Other

295
104

49%
40%

27
25

22
32

21
14

20%
22%

25
18

54
57

-5
4

90%
79%

58%
62%

78%
68%

46%
43%

PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Democrat
Others
Republican

108
148
143

69%
43%
33%

5
28
42

26
26
23

64
15
-9

11%
13%
35%

41
17
15

47
67
49

-30
-5
20

87%
87%
89%

68%
44%
68%

74%
74%
77%

53%
33%
51%

SEX
Male
Female

198
202

38%
55%

35
18

24
26

2
37

22%
19%

22
24

54
56

0
-4

89%
86%

64%
54%

76%
74%

46%
44%

AGE
18-39
40-59
60+

131
131
138

36%
52%
51%

20
24
36

40
21
14

16
28
15

17%
19%
25%

26
18
24

56
61
49

-9
0
1

75%
92%
95%

65%
54%
58%

60%
79%
86%

44%
39%
51%

IDEOLOGY
Liberal
Other
Conservative

122
86
192

71%
41%
33%

6
20
43

23
33
22

65
21
-11

7%
11%
33%

37
22
14

54
64
52

-30
-11
19

86%
88%
88%

57%
47%
66%

77%
67%
78%

46%
36%
48%

POPULARITY/RATE
UDALL: Rate favorably
UDALL: Rate not favorably
BUCK: Can rate
BUCK: Cannot rate
Can rate both

185
116
180
220
161

100%
0%
55%
40%
61%

0
93
33
22
37

0
0
11
36
0

100
-93
22
18
24

17%
34%
45%
0%
44%

34
17
51
0
52

47
46
0
100
0

-17
18
-5
0
-7

100%
100%
92%
84%
100%

61%
67%
100%
26%
100%

100%
100%
89%
64%
100%

53%
54%
100%
0%
100%

RE-ELECT
Udall
Republican
Depends/Don't know

144
163
92

71%
26%
43%

5
53
14

23
20
36

65
-27
30

9%
33%
16%

37
15
15

53
52
65

-28
18
1

89%
89%
83%

61%
62%
52%

77%
80%
64%

47%
48%
35%

SENATE VOTE
Udall
Buck
Don't know

184
169
47

68%
24%
43%

5
52
24

25
22
32

63
-28
19

8%
37%
9%

36
11
13

55
49
76

-28
26
-4

87%
89%
87%

57%
65%
45%

75%
78%
68%

45%
51%
24%

HYDRAULIC FRACTURING
Support
Oppose
Don't know

240
113
47

38%
63%
51%

38
10
11

22
25
36

0
52
40

25%
12%
17%

19
34
15

54
53
67

6
-23
2

91%
83%
79%

63%
58%
41%

78%
75%
64%

46%
47%
33%

KEYSTONE
Support
Oppose
Don't know

264
92
43

41%
61%
51%

34
16
8

23
23
37

7
45
43

25%
9%
15%

19
38
16

54
53
68

7
-29
-1

90%
84%
82%

61%
54%
57%

77%
77%
63%

46%
47%
32%

EFFECT ON VOTE
More likely to vote Udall
Less likely to vote Udall
No difference/Don't know

51
137
76

56%
35%
40%

11
47
25

33
18
26

44
-11
15

19%
29%
22%

20
18
18

60
51
54

-1
11
4

80%
92%
92%

57%
63%
61%

67%
82%
74%

40%
49%
46%

ENERGY ISSUES
Very important
Not very important

163
236

42%
49%

32
23

24
25

10
26

26%
17%

20
25

53
57

6
-8

85%
89%

59%
59%

76%
75%

47%
43%

U.S. Senate vote preference

Total

Q3. Re-elect Udall
Dep
Net
Re-elect Replace /DK Re-elect

Q4. Current vote
Udall

Buck

DK

Net
Udall

TOTAL

400

36%

41

23

-5

46%

42

12

4

Definite voters

319

37%

41

22

-4

46%

43

11

4

REGION
Denver County
Denver Metro
Denver Total
Colorado Springs/Pueblo
Northeast
West

56
117
173
110
53
64

48%
40%
43%
27%
32%
37%

18
41
34
52
41
41

34
19
24
21
27
22

31
-1
9
-25
-9
-4

78%
46%
56%
38%
37%
40%

18
41
33
51
45
49

4
14
10
11
18
11

60
5
23
-13
-7
-9

RACE
White
Other

295
104

36%
35%

43
35

21
30

-7
1

44%
52%

45
35

11
13

-1
18

PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Democrat
Others
Republican

108
148
143

81%
33%
6%

6
34
74

13
34
20

75
-1
-68

95%
44%
11%

5
32
81

0
24
8

91
12
-70

SEX
Male
Female

198
202

27%
45%

50
32

24
22

-23
13

35%
57%

53
31

12
12

-18
26

AGE
18-39
40-59
60+

131
131
138

36%
36%
36%

38
37
47

25
27
18

-2
-1
-11

51%
45%
43%

38
42
46

11
14
10

13
3
-3

IDEOLOGY
Liberal
Other
Conservative

122
86
192

70%
34%
15%

12
27
65

18
39
20

58
8
-50

82%
55%
19%

10
19
73

7
26
8

72
36
-54

POPULARITY/RATE
UDALL: Rate favorably
UDALL: Rate not favorably
BUCK: Can rate
BUCK: Cannot rate
Can rate both

185
116
180
220
161

55%
8%
38%
35%
39%

23
76
44
38
44

22
17
18
27
18

32
-68
-6
-4
-5

68%
10%
46%
46%
46%

22
79
47
38
48

11
10
6
16
6

46
-69
-1
8
-2

RE-ELECT
Udall
Republican
Depends/Don't know

144
163
92

100%
0%
0%

0
100
0

0
0
100

100
-100
0

93%
8%
40%

5
83
29

2
10
31

88
-75
11

SENATE VOTE
Udall
Buck
Don't know

184
169
47

73%
4%
5%

7
80
34

20
16
62

66
-76
-29

100%
0%
0%

0
100
0

0
0
100

100
-100
0

HYDRAULIC FRACTURING
Support
Oppose
Don't know

240
113
47

21%
59%
55%

56
17
19

22
23
26

-35
42
36

30%
72%
68%

60
16
17

10
13
15

-30
56
51

KEYSTONE
Support
Oppose
Don't know

264
92
43

23%
63%
58%

55
15
9

22
23
33

-32
48
49

30%
77%
79%

57
12
13

13
10
8

-28
65
65

EFFECT ON VOTE
More likely to vote Udall
Less likely to vote Udall
No difference/Don't know

51
137
76

39%
11%
34%

44
73
31

18
16
34

-5
-62
3

55%
15%
40%

40
74
40

5
11
20

14
-59
0

ENERGY ISSUES
Very important
Not very important

163
236

31%
39%

54
32

14
29

-23
8

39%
51%

54
34

7
15

-14
17

Keystone pipeline and hydraulic fracturing

Total

Q6. Hydraulic fracturing
Net
Support Oppose DK Support

Q7. Keystone pipeline
Support Oppose

DK

Net
Support

Q8. Effect on Udall vote if stopped
More
Less
None
Net
Total
likely
likely
/DK
More

TOTAL

400

60%

28

12

32

66%

23

11

43

264

19%

52

29

-32

Definite voters

319

60%

29

11

31

65%

27

9

38

206

16%

57

27

-41

REGION
Denver County
Denver Metro
Denver Total
Colorado Springs/Pueblo
Northeast
West

56
117
173
110
53
64

43%
63%
57%
63%
63%
62%

40
27
31
25
27
27

17
10
12
12
9
12

3
36
25
38
36
35

47%
65%
59%
77%
71%
62%

36
25
29
16
19
23

17
10
12
7
10
15

12
39
30
61
51
39

27
76
102
85
37
39

28%
18%
21%
14%
21%
25%

44
52
50
66
39
37

28
29
29
20
40
38

-16
-34
-30
-52
-18
-12

RACE
White
Other

295
104

62%
55%

28
28

10
17

33
27

68%
59%

21
29

11
11

47
30

202
62

18%
24%

54
45

28
31

-36
-21

PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Democrat
Others
Republican

108
148
143

38%
54%
83%

48
30
12

14
16
5

-10
24
71

39%
65%
88%

43
24
7

18
12
5

-4
41
81

42
96
126

36%
16%
16%

22
50
63

42
34
21

14
-34
-47

SEX
Male
Female

198
202

74%
47%

22
34

4
19

51
12

74%
59%

21
25

5
16

52
33

146
118

18%
21%

56
46

26
33

-38
-26

AGE
18-39
40-59
60+

131
131
138

58%
55%
66%

31
35
19

11
10
15

27
20
47

63%
66%
70%

26
24
19

11
10
11

37
41
50

82
86
96

24%
18%
16%

50
54
51

25
28
33

-26
-36
-35

IDEOLOGY
Liberal
Other
Conservative

122
86
192

35%
52%
80%

53
29
12

12
19
8

-18
23
67

44%
57%
84%

39
29
10

17
14
6

5
28
74

54
49
161

32%
12%
17%

35
44
60

33
44
23

-3
-33
-42

POPULARITY/RATE
UDALL: Rate favorably
UDALL: Rate not favorably
BUCK: Can rate
BUCK: Cannot rate
Can rate both

185
116
180
220
161

49%
83%
61%
59%
63%

38
12
30
27
29

13
5
9
14
8

10
72
32
32
34

58%
83%
68%
64%
69%

30
13
24
22
24

12
4
8
13
7

28
70
44
42
45

107
96
122
142
111

26%
6%
17%
22%
16%

45
67
54
49
56

29
27
29
29
28

-19
-61
-38
-28
-40

RE-ELECT
Udall
Republican
Depends/Don't know

144
163
92

36%
82%
58%

47
12
29

18
6
13

-11
70
30

42%
89%
62%

40
8
23

17
2
16

2
81
39

61
146
57

32%
15%
16%

25
68
38

43
16
46

8
-53
-23

SENATE VOTE
Udall
Buck
Don't know

184
169
47

39%
85%
54%

44
10
31

17
5
15

-5
74
23

43%
90%
72%

39
7
20

18
3
8

4
83
51

79
152
33

35%
14%
8%

26
66
46

39
20
46

9
-53
-38

HYDRAULIC FRACTURING
Support
Oppose
Don't know

240
113
47

100%
0%
0%

0
100
0

0
0
100

100
-100
0

84%
32%
55%

9
56
16

7
12
29

75
-24
39

202
36
26

20%
23%
12%

55
46
30

25
31
58

-36
-23
-18

KEYSTONE
Support
Oppose
Don't know

264
92
43

77%
23%
36%

14
69
32

10
8
32

63
-45
4

100%
0%
0%

0
100
0

0
0
100

100
-100
0

264
0
0

19%
0%
0%

52
0
0

29
0
0

-32
0
0

EFFECT ON VOTE
More likely to vote Udall
Less likely to vote Udall
No difference/Don't know

51
137
76

78%
82%
66%

16
12
14

6
6
19

61
70
52

100%
100%
100%

0
0
0

0
0
0

100
100
100

51
137
76

100%
0%
0%

0
100
0

0
0
100

100
-100
0

ENERGY ISSUES
Very important
Not very important

163
236

66%
56%

26
30

8
14

39
26

67%
65%

24
22

9
12

43
43

110
155

18%
20%

63
44

20
36

-45
-23