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Fluvanna & Lake Monticello

Real Estate Market Analysis


3rd Quarter 2009

Data compiled and presented by:

86 Joshua Lane
Palmyra,VA 22963
434.589.5800
Information in this report is believed accurate, however, not guaranteed StrongTeamRealtors.com

Sunday, October 18, 2009


We would like to thank you for taking the time to consider our Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market
Analysis. We sincerely hope that you will find the report both informative and valuable. There are a few things
you should know that will help you consider the data that we have shared. . .

The source of all of the statistical data in this report is the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS
Multiple Listing Service. All of the information in the the CAAR MLS is believed to be accurate, however,
is not guaranteed. All of the data was compiled and analyzed personally by Strong Team REALTORS. All
of the opinions contained herein are those of Strong Team REALTORS, unless otherwise noted.

The presentation of the data in this report is licensed under a Creative Commons Copyright License.
This document may be shared, as long as it is passed along unchanged and in whole, with proper
attribution to Strong Team REALTORS.

creative commons by attribution no derivatives

We encourage you to share this report with others who you think might find it valuable. If you have any
questions about any of the information, or would like additional information, or additional copies of the
report, we are happy to help however we can. All you have to do is give us a call at 434-589-5800, or
send an email to Stats@StrongTeamRealtors.com.

Strong Team REALTORS

Sunday, October 18, 2009


Introduction
Welcome to the latest edition of the Strong Team REALTORS Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market
Analysis. We know that comprehensive, accurate data about the local real estate market is absolutely critical
in order for you to make informed decisions about your real estate needs. We also know, however, that
such information is often far too hard to come by. It is our goal to change that.

This is the latest edition of our quarterly reports. Each report contains the vital data about the local real
estate market that you want, need, and deserve. As real estate professionals, we know first-hand that
market data leads to increased knowledge and better decision-making. After all, knowledge is power. We
want to empower our clients and customers with the knowledge necessary for them to make the best
decisions for them.

Everyone has a “feeling” about the real estate market, our goal is to provide facts and analysis that will show
you a true picture of the local real estate market.

Scope of this report


The data in this report looks back at January-September of this year and compares it to the same time
period in 2008. Some of the graphs will refer to the entire Charlottesville Area (Albemarle, Charlottesville,
Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson), others will show data for only Fluvanna County and/or Lake Monticello. This is
done so that you can compare the local market against itself, and also against the performance of the
region.

Strong Team REALTORS

Sunday, October 18, 2009


Total Sales By Area
The chart on the following page is a representation of the total number of sales in the Charlottesville Area
for the 1st three quarters of 2009. The sales are broken down by individual area, and also as a total.

As you can see, sales in every area are lower, compared to the same time frame in 2008. For the entire
Charlottesville Area, sales volume is 15% lower in 2009, compared with 2008. By area, Charlottesville has
seen the largest drop-off in sales (-27%), and Greene and Albemarle Counties have seen the smallest change
(-5%). Nelson and Fluvanna Counties have seen a -26%,and -25% change, respectively.

The positive news is that all of the areas improved from the deficits that were suffered in the first 6 months
of the year. It appears that significant gains were made in the 3rd quarter, which will be examined later.
While there is certainly no expectation that the area will meet or exceed sales numbers from 2008, the 3rd
quarter was a welcomed improvement over the first 6 months of the year.

Strong Team REALTORS

Sunday, October 18, 2009


Total Sales by Area
2,000

1,800 1,845

1,600
1,567
1,400

1,200

1,000

800 837
795

600
489
400
356
200 253
189
135 142 124
92
0
Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna Greene Nelson Total

2009 2008
Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS

Sunday, October 18, 2009


Total Sales in Fluvanna vs. Lake Monticello
The following chart shows the total sales for Fluvanna vs. Lake Monticello during first have of 2009. In the
previous chart, both were included in the “Fluvanna” column. Since Lake Monticello is, by far, the largest
subdivision in Fluvanna and very unique compared to the rest of the county, it is worthwhile to examine it
individually, whenever possible.

Lake Monticello experienced a drop-off of 32% in total sales in 2009 compared to 2008. Homes outside of
Lake Monticello experienced a 13% drop in sales volume. Homes outside Lake Monticello made gains in
the 3rd quarter, while Lake Monticello was able to manage only a modest recovery during the 3rd quarter.
It is interesting to note that Lake Monticello accounted for 58% of Fluvanna County’s sales in 2009, and
accounted for 64% of sales in the County in 2008.

Strong Team REALTORS

Sunday, October 18, 2009


Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Total Sales
170
162
153

136

119
110
102

85 91

79
68

51

34

17

0
Fluvanna Co. ONLY Lake Monticello

2009 2008
Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS

Sunday, October 18, 2009


Charlottesville Area Sales by Month
The following chart breaks down the total area sales on a per-month basis. The chart compares the
monthly-by-month totals from 2009 and 2008. This chart is important because it gives a picture of the
entire year in such a way that we can see the fluctuations in sales from month-to-month.

The most encouraging aspect of this chart is that the area actually outpaced last year’s sales numbers for
the months of July and August, and were only modestly lower in September. This fact allows us to
understand why the area made up some of the tremendous losses earlier in the year.

While the peak of the season occurred one month later in 2009, it was enough to make up for some of
the very low sales that were experienced earlier in the year. What remains to be seen is if the gap can
continue to be erased, or at least remain close, as the area moves into what is traditionally the slowest
time of the entire year.

It is hard to predict what will happen in the final quarter of 2009, since the end of 2008 was heavily
influenced by the economic meltdown. While economic conditions are by no means ideal this year, it
remains to be seen how sales will be affected by current economic conditions and the expiration of the
first-time homebuyer’s tax credit.

Strong Team REALTORS

Sunday, October 18, 2009


Charlottesville Area Sales by Month
296
300 285
296
260
263
260

225 207

184 212
179
188 197
166

150 139 164 140


128
117
131 134
113
90
101
75
72

38

0
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

2009 2008
Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS

Sunday, October 18, 2009


Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Sales by Month
The following two charts show the same month-by-month breakdown of the sales total, but the
information is limited to Fluvanna County (only) on the first chart, and to Lake Monticello (only) on the
second chart.

The sales-by-month results were mixed for Fluvanna County and Lake Monticello. Homes in Fluvanna
County followed a trend similar to the rest of the Charlottesville area. While July was still a down month,
improvements were made in August and September, which helped to buoy the overall sales numbers for
the year.

Lake Monticello, however, did not hold to the larger pattern. July sales at Lake Monticello were 53% lower
in July of 2009. August sales only matched the number from 2008, and September saw another deficit, this
time of 27%.

Again, predicting the rest of the year is difficult. Anecdotally, we have seen quite a few closings in the first
two weeks of October, but this no predictor for the rest of the year. There is little chance that either
Fluvanna or Lake Monticello will make any gains on last year’s sales numbers. The best that can be
expected is to remain steady for the rest of the year.

Strong Team REALTORS

Sunday, October 18, 2009


Fluvanna Sales by Month
50

42
42

34
32
33
30
29
27
26 26

25 26 26 26 21
24 24 19
18 22

17
17 12
15

8
9

0
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

2009 2008
Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS

Sunday, October 18, 2009


Lake Monticello Sales by Month
000 29

000
23

21

000 19
18
17
16 19
18 15
17
000
12

10 13 13 10
000 11
10
6

000 6

3
0
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

2009 2008
Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS

Sunday, October 18, 2009


Fluvanna Sales by Price Range
The following chart shows the total sales in Fluvanna County (only), broken down by price range. This
chart EXCLUDES homes in Lake Monticello. Those sales are on a separate, following, chart. The chart also
compares the price price range sales in 2009 and 2008.

This chart shows us that the trend of increasing sales in the lower price ranges remains. Very few homes
above $300,000 are selling in Fluvanna County. Conversely, sales in homes below $250,000 have increased
significantly.

In a later chart, we will see this trend underscored by the change in the median home price in Fluvanna
County.

Strong Team REALTORS

Sunday, October 18, 2009


Fluvanna ONLY Sales by Price Range

9
0-149,900 6

20
150,000-199,900 20

18
200,000-259,900 12

8
260,000-299,900 6

10
300,000-349,000 14

5
350,000-399,900 20

1
400,000-449,000 6

2
450,000-499,900 3

3
500,000-800,000 4

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

2009 2008
Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS

Sunday, October 18, 2009


Lake Monticello Sales by Price Range
The following chart shows the sales at Lake Monticello, broken down by price range. The numbers refer
ONLY to homes in Lake Monticello. Once again, the ranges are compared for 2009 and 2008.

As with the Fluvanna numbers on the previous chart, sales are obviously trending toward the lower end of
the price ranges. In fact, during 2009 more sales have been below $199,000 than all other price ranges
combined (56 homes $199K or lower, 53 others). The $450,000 to $499,000 price range has seen an
increase this year, which is made up of waterfront homes, which will be examine later.

Strong Team REALTORS

Sunday, October 18, 2009


Lake Monticello ONLY Sales by Price Range

6
0-149,900 3

53
150,000-199,000 44

22
200,000-259,900 60

10
260,000-299,900 25

6
300,000-349,000 12

2
350,000-399,900 5

5
400,000-449,000 2

1
450,000-499,900 7

4
500,000-800,000 4

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

2009 2008
Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS

Sunday, October 18, 2009


Median Price by Area
The following chart shows the median home price, broken down by area. On this chart, 2009 is compared
to 2008, and we have added a column that shows the median price for Lake Monticello ONLY.

The median price is the price at which exactly half of the homes have sold for more, and half for less. The
median price is a significant number because it is used to measure appreciation or depreciation. The
reason that the median is used, and not the average, is because if there were to be a few more sales at
either extreme of the price range, it would skew the average in that direction. The median is, therefore,
considered a more accurate measure of overall value in the market.

In 2008, the median home price in the Charlottesville Area after the 3rd quarter was $277,980. In 2009, the
median home price in the Charlottesville Area after the 3rd quarter was $277,980 (-7%). Every area has
experienced a drop in median price this year, with the exception of Nelson Couty, which remained even
with last year.

Lake Monticello experienced a 15% drop in median home price, which is exactly where Lake Monticello
stood at the midpoint of the year. Fluvanna County as a whole (including Lake Monticello) has experienced
a 17% drop in the median price, which is slightly better than the midpoint of the year.

Strong Team REALTORS

Sunday, October 18, 2009


Median Price by Area
400,000

350,000

300,000 315,000
300,000300,000
285,000
277,980
250,000 265,000 260,000265,000 258,980
247,000 244,900
230,000
200,000 202,900
195,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0
Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna Greene Nelson *Lake Mont. Total

2009 2008
Strong Team REALTORS * This column refers to Lake Monticello only. Fluvanna column includes Lake Monticello. Source: CAAR MLS

Sunday, October 18, 2009


Days on Market by Area
The following chart shows the average Days on Market (DOM), broken down by area. It compares the
average DOM, through September 30, in 2009 and 2008. This chart also includes a column for Lake
Monticello only.

DOM is a statistic that measures how many days a property is active in the MLS before it goes under
contract. The higher the number, the longer properties have remained on the market. Because of the way
the DOM statistic is calculated, there is always a possibility that the number does not actually reflect the
true DOM for a property, but since it is the only measure we have, we rely upon it anyway. Typically, when
DOM isn’t completely accurate, it is usually underestimating the true DOM of a property. So if the average
DOM for any area is inaccurate, you can safely assume that the number should be higher, not lower.

The DOM numbers were very mixed across the areas, but the Charlottesville Area as a whole saw the
average DOM drop 3 days compared to the same time frame in 2008. The difference has remained in the
+/- 10 days range for most of the year.

The difference between DOM in the area from 2008 to 2009 is not statistically significant. In fact, despite
differences both higher and lower in the different areas, all of them remain very close to the numbers seen
in 2008. The lack of a major change in the DOM can be seen as a good thing, as any sign of stability in the
current market is a positive thing.

Of course, all of these numbers are averages. Some homes sell very quickly, in days or weeks, while others
remain on the market for months, or even a year or more. It is, however, a positive sign that homes are
spending less time on the market. Hopefully, this trend will hold as we move through the year.

Strong Team REALTORS


Sunday, October 18, 2009
Days on Market by Area
0.000
161
5.714
139

1.429 124 124


120
114 115 113 115
112 112
7.143 103 102
95

2.857

8.571

4.286

0
Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna Greene Nelson *Lake Mont. Total

2009 2008
Strong Team REALTORS *This column refers to Lake Monticello only. Fluvanna column includes Lake Monticello. Source: CAAR MLS

Sunday, October 18, 2009


Inventory for Fluvanna & Lake Monticello
The following two charts shows the total inventory of homes for sale in Fluvanna (including Lake
Monticello), and for Lake Monticello only, broken down by month. For the purpose of this report, the
inventory was measured on the first day of each month. For example, as of January 1st of 2009, there were
317 homes on the market in Fluvanna County. 143 of those were located in Lake Monticello.

The good news is that we are not seeing huge increases in inventory numbers. For Fluvanna County as a
whole, we remain very close to the numbers experienced in 2008. While it would be ideal to be
experiencing lower numbers, inventory is a small victory, overall.

Lake Monticello continues to see inventory far lower than in 2008. There is no reason to expect this trend
to change any time in the near future. Much of the volatility in the market has already been worked out.

We have included on the chart the 2008 numbers for the rest of the months in the year, just to give you an
idea of what to expect going forward.

Strong Team REALTORS

Sunday, October 18, 2009


Fluvanna Total Inventory by Month*
395
400 392

380 380 379


392 392
380 372 374

360 376 377 359


360 354 367
343 358
354
340
327

320 327
317
300

280

260

240
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

2009 2008

*Inventory is counted on the 1st day of every month


Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS

Sunday, October 18, 2009


Lake Monticello ONLY Inventory by Month*
200

186 187 186


190 183
185
182

180 175 175 174


169 168
170
157
160 163 163
157
150 153
149 150
147
140 143
145

130

120

110

100
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

2009 2008

*Inventory is counted on the 1st day of every month


Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS

Sunday, October 18, 2009


Sold vs. List Price Fluvanna & Lake Monticello
The following chart shows the relationship between the listing price and the sold price of properties in
Fluvanna and Lake Monticello. It compares this percentage in Q1 2009 and 2008. The “Fluvanna” column
includes all homes, while “Lake Monticello” refers only to homes in Lake Monticello.

This statistic is important because it represents the percentage of the list price that owners are receiving
when their home is sold. The statistic uses the list price of the home on the day it goes under contract, and
compares that to the sold price on the contract. One thing to keep in mind is that in some transactions,
there are closing costs credits, or other credits included in the contract price. These credits have the effect
of inflating the contract price, as the seller of the home does not actually keep the money. Therefore, the
percentage of sold vs. list price can sometimes be slightly inflated.

As of the midway point of the year, homeowners in Fluvanna and Lake Monticello were walking away with a
slightly lower percentage of list price in 2009, compared to 2008. Each percentage point represents $1000
per $100,000. So, if a $200,000 home sold for 96% of list price, the final contract price was $192,000.

As with many of the other statistics, these numbers represent an average across all homes sold. Meaning
that many homes are selling for at or near list price, while others are selling for well below the list price at
the time of contract. The statistic does show, however, what a seller and buyer can reasonably expect to
receive in a negotiation. Of course, each individual property presents a unique situation, so buyers and
sellers should act accordingly.

Strong Team REALTORS

Sunday, October 18, 2009


Sold Price vs. List Price (percentage)
100

99

98

97
96.91 96.93

96 96.31

95.61
95

94

93

92

91

90
Fluvanna Lake Monticello ONLY

2009 2008
Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS

Sunday, October 18, 2009


Lake Monticello Waterfront Sales Stats
The following chart refers to only waterfront homes and condos sold at Lake Monticello through March 31
in 2009 and 2008. Included in the stats are only those homes and condos that were on the main lake. The
chart shows the average price and the median price of waterfront homes sold.

2009 has been a confounding year for the waterfront market. It was extremely slow for most of the year,
but picked up in the 3rd quarter. It didn’t pick up enough to match the number of sales of 2008 (9 vs. 15),
but the homes that have sold have been for a higher average price ($511,528 vs. $467,500). Waterfront
inventory continues to be very high, however, and the same is true for DOM for waterfront homes.

Demand for waterfront homes doesn’t seem to be down, as we are showing many homes to potential
waterfront buyers. We already know there is no lack of supply for waterfront homes. So, it would appear
that the issue with the waterfront market is that buyers are not satisfied with either the price or condition
of the homes in the supply. Until that disconnect is corrected, it stands to reason that waterfront sales will
continue to lag behind the pace set last year.

Strong Team REALTORS

Sunday, October 18, 2009


Lake Monticello Waterfront Sales Statistics*
520,000
511,528
468,000 470,000 475,000 467,500

416,000

364,000

312,000

260,000

208,000

156,000

104,000

52,000

0
Median Price Average Price
2009 2008
*Stats include homes and condos on the main lake. 9 sales in 2009, 15 sales in 2008
Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS

Sunday, October 18, 2009


Conclusion
In our last market report, we said that the 3rd quarter numbers would be an indication of whether or not
the market has achieved something that could be called “stability.” Now that we have made it through the
3rd quarter, it does appear that 2009 might be the year that we see the bleeding stop. In the area overall,
numbers in the 3rd quarter were very close to the numbers seen in 2008. This just might indicate that we
are reaching a more stable point in the market.

It is important to note that a “recovery” DOES NOT mean that we should expect to see increasing sales
numbers or appreciation going forward. Right now, “recovery” simply means that numbers will stop
trending downward. Everything suggests that both sales numbers and median price will be lower in 2009
compared to 2008. The encouraging thing is to note that the numbers have been doing better over the last
few months. It won’t be until the end of year when we can see if numbers continue to hold and the
downward trend is ended. We certainly don’t expect the trend to be reversed in any significant way.
Buyers and sellers, both, would do well to adjust themselves to the reality of the current market, and
expect it to remain this way for the foreseeable future.

As we head into the final quarter of 2009, one factor to keep in mind is the expiration of the first-time
homebuyer tax credit. If the expiration is going to have a negative impact on sales, it should be evident in
comparing November/December numbers to 2008. The impact of the tax credit thus far is difficult to
gauge without knowing what happens when it goes away.

Buyers and sellers should arm themselves with as much knowledge and information as possible, and make
an effort not to ignore the market realities in favor of wishful thinking. Being grounded in reality and good
information provides the best opportunity for reaching your real estate goals.

Strong Team REALTORS

Sunday, October 18, 2009


Thank you
We at Strong Team REALTORS would like to thank you for taking the time to read our Fluvanna & Lake
Monticello Real Estate Market Analysis. We hope that you have found all of the statistics and analysis both
informative and valuable. We encourage you to share this document with others who you think may find
it valuable. If you would like more copies of this document, or to automatically receive our future market
analyses, please call us at 434-589-5800, or send an email to Stats@StrongTeamRealtors.com.

It is always one of our goals to empower our clients and customers with the knowledge necessary to
achieve their real estate goals. We are always happy to help you with any questions you might have about
real estate, from statistics to staging advice, we are happy to share our knowledge and expertise wherever
it is needed. Please don’t hesitate to contact us with any additional questions or comments.

Strong Team REALTORS


86 Joshua Lane
Palmyra,VA 22963
434-589-5800
StrongTeamRealtors.com

Strong Team REALTORS

Sunday, October 18, 2009