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Key Differences Regarding the Analysis of State Costs (General Fund) in the Fiscal Note

1. OFPR’s cost for the parent population does not reflect actual expenditures. OFPR estimated a cost of $1,618 per member, per year. Based on actual expenditures from the MaineCare claims management system for 14,978 parents, the per member, per year cost is $2,862. State cost: $17.8 million is SFY16; $18.7 million in SFY17 2. Our analysis accounts for one-quarter of the year in SFY15 where parents, previously receiving transitional Medicaid, no longer receive benefits. OFPR does not account for this expense. State cost: $4.2 million. 3. OFPR assumes savings of $5.9 million in SFY 15; $11.8 in SFY16 and SFY17 . LD1487 includes vague language around these savings, based on experiences in some other states, particularly in adult mental health and substance abuse services. A letter we received from the feds warns that shifting funds from existing programs could force states to “lose federal block grant funding in amount commensurate with to the shifted State funds.” Based on the lack of specifics outlined by the bill and our own internal analysis which shows minimal or no savings, our estimate does not include savings. 4. OFPR disregards the ‘woodwork effect’ of people who were not identified as uninsured or currently not covered by Medicaid that ‘come out of the woodwork’ to receive benefits . Our numbers do not include children, which were included in the last biennial budget. We anticipate approximately 1,600 individuals to ‘come out of the woodwork.’ State cost: $1.6 million in SFY15; $2.3 million in SFY16 and SFY17. 5. In addition, we estimate that parents will drop private insurance if they are eligible for Medicaid and both they and their children, will receive benefits. We anticipate 7,500 individuals. State cost: $6.6 million in SFY15; and $6.4 million in SFYs 16 and 17. 6. We estimate $2.5 million annually in staffing costs, while OFPR estimates $2 million . 7. We included $9.4 million in costs for able-bodied adults (non-categoricals) in SFY17, while OFPR includes $3 million. Total State Cost Estimates DHHS Analysis 3-Year Total: $84 million OFPR Analysis 3-Year Total: $0.7 million