Foreign Trade University Faculty of Business Administration

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Instructor: Mr. Hoang Xuan Binh Students: Tran Ha Dung Nguyen Hai Duong Pham Canh Toan Doan My Hanh Vu Thi Trang Nguyen Ha Phuong Luong Thi Lan Phuong Ngo Trong uan Bui uang Dung Nguyen Viet Ha Nguyen Tien Duc

Doan Thi Minh Duyen Nguyen Thi Minh Trang 2 .

In(/ation 4 . 'eason (or choosing the to)ic & II. . De(inition o( an o*erheating economy 4 II. China3 the +or/d. %n o*er*ie+ o( China. %na/ysis 4 I.s (actory 2 B.s macroeconomy macroeconomics !. Introduction & I. Ba/ance o( trade &. Signa/s o( an o*erheating economy 4 !.Hanoi !"#$"!" TAB&E "F $" TE T Page %. 0DI inde1 2 -.DP gro+th rate $.

$. Causes and e((ects 7 !. Pre*ent 9u99/es !4 &. So/utions !2 !. 'etai/ sa/es 5 &. Money su))/y 7 III. IV. 'aise interest rates !2 $. ii. Causes 7 i. $. Conc/usion !5 8((ects o( an o*erheating economy in genera/ !$ In the situation o( China !$ 8((ects o( an o*erheating economy in genera/ 7 In the situation o( China !" . Loan gro+th 6 -. 8((ects !$ i. 'enmin9i a))reciation !4 C. ii.

8*a/uation and )rediction to+ard China. )hAi /= num9er one3 nBu nCi /= num9er one *s tDnh hDnh hiEn tFi thD cGng HIng nhJng cKi HoFn sau . Prediction !7 II. .s No. /ast year as the 9iggest automo9i/e mar. %s a transition economy3 since !7563 (rom a )redominant/y centra//y )/anned economy3 China has 9een mo*ing to+ards a more mar. China o*ertoo.s economy !5 !. 8*a/uation !5 $. the Q.s second#/argest economy /ast Suarter3 ca))ing the nation. The nation is the +or/d.I.s three # decade rise (rom Communist iso/ation to emerging su)er)o+er. ! 9uyer o( iron ore and co))er and the second# 9iggest im)orter o( crude oi/3 and has under)inned demand (or e1)orts 9y its %sian neigh9ors. Lessons (or emerging countries $$ 'e(erences $- A' I TR"DU$TI" I' Reason for c(oosing t(e to)ic :*er the )ast (e+ years3 e*eryone around the +or/d has seen the *ery (ast de*e/o)ment o( a country in %sia # China.S.ets3 together +ith South Norea3 8gy)t3 Peru3 Po/and3 'ussiaMOc/assi(ied 9y MSCI Barra in May $"!"P.ermany as the /argest e1) 9a/ance in its economic system and China no+adays is considered as the num9er one t< search /= >! o( $!? ch@ . In %ugust !4th $"!"3 e*en China sur)assed Ra)an as the +or/ and . /ogic cho /Lm3 sao /Fi >together +ithM?3 o( the $! emerging mar.

GDP growth rate .D 1. Uhat +e aim to do is )er(orming a /atest o*er*ie+ and a com)rehensi*e ana/ysis a9out this hot issue and )utting /earned theories into )ractice.e the QS in the (utureT Uhich /essons (rom China that de*e/o)ing countries / ng(i la macroeconomics .There(ore3 the economy o( China has 9ecome a red#hot issue recent/y +ith )eo)/e (rom a// o*er the +or/d in genera/ and economists in )articu/ar. II' "vervie* of $(ina+s macroeconomy. Many Suestions and issues are considered a9out the China.s o*erheating economy: • Did China rea//y )ass Ra)an to 9ecome the +or/d.t do not try to 9e a serious economist (inding out causes or so/utions (or the 9ooming economy o( China.s second#/argest economy +hi/e its a*erage )er ca)ita income remains re/ati*e/y /o+T • • Can China o*erta.e Vietnam may /earnT ConseSuent/y3 our grou) decided to choose this to)ic in order to )ractice theories that +e ha*e /earned (rom the macroeconomics su9Vect through a rea/ and hot caseW ho+e*er. . Ho+e*er3 +e don.

&5X.DP :D3 to nghi the YY.DP Z [!. The a*erage .$7 9i//ion.s . 2. Minh cung nen dua cai .DP gro+th rate o( China +as !".$5X )er year during (our year )eriod . Cung trong Suy $3 . Cau nay nen dua so /ieu *ao3 .DP gro+th rate /ai noi sang cai .&.&X3 o( Ra)an +as ".nam naoT. More remar.DP Z [!.DP gro+th rate +as a massi*e!".DP o( China can 9e considered as that o( an e1)ress train.s .DP gro+th rate *ao nua3 *i minh dang noi *e . Balance of trade .s .9i//ion3 Ra)an.hong )hai thang 4 ma /a Suy $ nhe YY3 during the second Suarter o( this year3 China.a9/y3 on Rune3 China. that o( Ra)an3 turning China to 9ecome the second 9iggest economy.DP o((icia//y o*ertoo. %(ter a (ree (a// to 4X during a terri9/e recession in $""63 this inde1 made a (u// reco*ery in $"!"3 reaching to more than !"X in the third Suarter o( this year.The s)eed o( gro+th in .

Ho+e*er3 !6. FDI index: .5.9i//ion QSD )er year is a )retty good num9er in com)arison +ith other countries. This (igure a/so +ent through a )eriod o( erratic 9eha*ior as due to the g/o9a/ economic insta9i/ity.%s can 9e seen c/ear/y on the gra)h3 the 9a/ance o( trade o( China +as genera//y )ositi*e3 a)art (rom the second Suarter o( $"!". 3.

In the rest o( our assignment3 +e +ou/d /i. hieu dau has enVoyed a shar) increase o*er the years.ermany. san 1uat hang hoa . In s)ite o( a// a9o*e achie*ements3 China. China.e this matter c/ear and understanda9/e (or you. dung nua roi3 T high tech day ra day ma3 9o cau nay di. o( more than !2" 9i//ion QSD 9e(ore going do+n 9y near/y 2" 9i//ion QSD in the ne1t year. This inde1? Oto . Cai nay /ay o BBC tu nam $""$3 gio . Uages are a (raction o( those in de*e/o)ed countries. 9iet cai 9ang nay /ay tu trang nao nen . Neu dung hien tai hoan thanh thi China dung thu & tu nam $""5 roi nen minh sua thanh >third#9iggest industria/ )roducer3 a(ter the Qnited States and Ra)an? It has gone (rom 9eing a ma. In $""63 it hit a )ea..i//ed +or.This inde1 Uhat inde1T  >The ta9/e ) o( most/y /o+#tech )roducts /i.s economic gro+th is o*erheating3 +hich +ou/d /ead to Suite a (e+ serious conseSuences. the world’s factory There is a gro+ing trend that chea) and high Sua/ity goods (rom China ha*e eaten a+ay )ro(it margins at many industries +or/d+ide. den day /a duoc roi :D among other nations 4. :*er the )ast $" years3 China has raced ahead to 9ecome the +or/d\s (ourth#9iggest industria/ )roducer3 a(ter the Qnited States3 Ra)an and .e Christmas decorations3 toys3 (oot+ear and c/othing to )roducing TVs3 (ridges and other hi tech )roducts. China\s *ast )oo/ o( chea) /a9our is a maVor reason (or its success. Ho+e*er3 China is sti// considered as the most attracti*e in*estment destination. *iet duocP 9an nao /ay cai 9ang nay thi nen chu thich o 9en duoi day /a 9ang gi3 chu 1em thi .e to ma. But China\s +inning (ormu/a is the ]nice me/ding] o( uns.ers and ine1)ensi*e 9ut +e//#educated midd/e managers.

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