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INTRODUCTION

Over the course of the past year the Pakistani economy has

taken such drastic turns that it has baffled even seasoned

economists and researchers, one such change has been the

unprecedented success of the Karachi Stock Exchange,

represented mostly by the KSE-100 index. Just to take an

example, in April 2003 the KSE-100 index stood a hundred

points shy of the 3000 mark, a coveted position at that

time, and now little over an year later it stands well

past the 5000 point level. Such a radical change has

naturally forced a lot of people to uncover the

fundamental reasons behind the change. This research paper

is an effort by the researcher to find out which are the

fundamental determinants of the KSE index and what is the

extent of their influence on it.

Background Of KSE

after independence in 1947) and small market. In 2002, it

had 758 stocks listed with a total market capitalization

of about $10 billion or 16% of GDP. The KSE captures 74%

of the overall trading volume in Pakistan. There are two

smaller stock exchanges covering the remaining 26%: The

Lahore stock exchange (22%), and the Islamabad stock

1

exchange (4%). The KSE-100 index, which is a weighted

price index of the top 100 companies listed on the stock

market, is usually taken as a benchmark index in Pakistan.

theorists that stock market prices are driven by

macroeconomic variables, the so- called “fundamentals” in

the economy. Moreover, it is also agreed that the linkage

is two-way; that is, feedback exists between the stock

market and real activity.

phenomenon described above in the developed economies such

as the US, the UK, Germany, Japan etc, where researchers

have come up with some very informative and insightful

results. These results have helped them explain to some

degree the behavior of their stock exchanges and in turn

have helped them make better predictions about its current

and future performance. It is only logical that such

studies be conducted for the Pakistani stock market so

that we too can benefit from the predictive power of

economic variables for our stock exchanges.

2

Research Questions

aim is to make it easier to try to answer the following

hypothesis:-

2. Do interest rates affect the KSE index?

3. Does inflation affect industrial production?

4. Does inflation affect interest rates?

5. Does inflation affect the KSE index?

6. Do interest rates affect industrial production?

period 1994 until 2004 is taken for all variables.

3

Theoretical Framework

following multivariate model is specified:

Where,

IPI= Industrial Production Index of Pakistan

INF= Inflation rate of Pakistan

STI= Short Run Interest Rate of Pakistan, in percentage

equally weighted price index, is calculated by taking the

average of the prices of a set of 100 biggest companies

listed on the KSE. These companies are sufficiently

representative of the Pakistani Stock Market, because of

the weight of these companies; the KSE-100 index accounts

for majority of the total trading volume.

proxy for real economic activity in the Pakistani market.

Consumer Price Index.

Weighted average rate of return on 3 month or less fixed

4

or term deposits (interest bearing and PLS) offered by All

Scheduled Banks in Pakistan in percent per annum.

relations among key economic variables such as:

Inflation

Interest rates

Industrial production

where stock exchanges are less mature as compared to those

in e.g. US, Japan and the UK.

report and therefore it is appropriate to adequately

define them for the reader.

coefficients of the linear equation, involving one or more

independent variables that best predict the value of the

dependent variable.

the result i.e. whether estimations have been made at 90%

5

or 95% etc, confidence intervals for each regression

coefficient

produced by adding or deleting an independent variable. If

the R2 change associated with a variable is large, that

means that the variable is a good predictor of the

dependent variable.

mean, and the standard deviation for each variable in the

analysis.

part, and partial correlations. Values of a correlation

coefficient range from –1 to 1. The sign of the

coefficient indicates the direction of the relationship,

and its absolute value indicates the strength, with larger

absolute values indicating stronger relationships.

serial correlation of the residuals and casewise

diagnostics for the cases meeting the selection criterion.

predicts for each case.

dependent variable. The unstandardized coefficients are

the coefficients of the estimated regression model

into its standardized form. That is, the mean predicted

6

value is subtracted from the predicted value, and the

difference is divided by the standard deviation of the

predicted values. Often the independent variables are

measures in different units. The standardized coefficients

or betas are an attempt to make the regression

coefficients more comparable.

excluded from the calculation of the regression

coefficients.

values. An estimate of the standard deviation of the

average value of the dependent variable.

mean and individual prediction intervals.

of the mean predicted result.

interval of the dependent variable.

minus the value predicted by the regression equation.

procedure computes Pearson's correlation coefficient, with

its significance levels. Correlations measure how

variables are related. Pearson's correlation coefficient

is a measure of linear association.

7

Correlation Coefficients: Correlation coefficients range

in value from –1 (a perfect negative relationship) and +1

(a perfect positive relationship). A value of 0 indicates

no linear relationship.

one-tailed probabilities. If the direction of association

is known in advance, One-tailed is taken. If the direction

of association is not known then Two-tailed test of

significance is taken.

8

CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

variables have been active topics of economic research for

most of this century. An increasing amount of empirical

evidence noticed by several researchers leads to the

conclusion that a range of financial and macroeconomic

variables can affect stock market activity (e.g. Campbell,

1987, French, Schwert and Stambaugh, 1987, Fama and

French, 1989, Balvers, Cosimano and McDonald, 1990, Been,

Glosten and Jaganathan, 1990, Cochrane, 1991, Campbell and

Hamao, 1992, Ferson and Harvey, 1993, Glosten, Jaganathan

and Runkie, 1993 and Pesaran and Timmerman, 1995, 2000).

fundamental economic variables in the U.S. is well

documented (Fama 1970, 1990 and 1991). In recent years,

numerous studies (Fama 1981, Chen, Roll and Ross 1986,

Chen 1991) modeled the relation between stock market

activity and real economic activities in terms of

production rates, productivity, GNP growth rate,

unemployment, yield spread, interest rates, inflation,

dividend yields, etc. These relationships among stock

market activity, real economic activity and monetary

variables in the U.S. also have been studied by (Geske &

Roll 1983), (Mallaris & Urrutia, 1991), (Darrat & Brocato,

9

1994), (Darrat & Dickens, 1999), while Known, (Shin &

Bacon, 1997) studied these relationships in Korea.

industrial production, interest rates and the S&P 500

Index; the results seem to suggest that the

interrelationships among the three variables are not

statistically significant, contrary to what the economic

and financial literature assumes. Since this finding

challenged economic conventional wisdom, it is worth

determining whether the economic role of the stock markets

in relatively less developed countries, such as Pakistan,

is or is not clearly significant. Specifically, it is

interesting to examine how the Pakistani market responds,

in terms of stock market activity, to changes in its

fundamental economic variables. This question, as of yet,

remains unanswered.

theories attempting to explain the nature and causes of

stock market activity and particularly fluctuations. The

great depression of 1930’s and the impact of Keynes’

General Theory interrupted the research of the Pre-

Keynesian economists, and during the 1950’s to the late

1960’s the Keynesian doctrine of aggregate demand and

activist fiscal policy distracted attention from the

monetary and financial areas. (Friedman & Schwartz 1963,

1982), among other economists, have redirected the

attention of researchers to the role of interest rates,

while financial economists such as (Sharp, 1964) focused

on financial assets.

10

More recently, numerous studies have focused on

specialized issues. (Rozeff, 1974) has studied the

relationship between interest rates and stock prices, and

(Barro, 1977) has analyzed the potential relationships

between monetary factors and real industrial output.

(Fama, 1981) investigates the relationships among stock

returns, real economic activity, inflation and money.

(Plosser, 1989) reviews an extensive literature on real

industrial activity and emphasizes the significant role of

technological shocks on the production function and the

economy’s real output. (Mankiw, 1989) criticizes Plosser’s

research and cites the significant role of tight monetary

policies. (Kydland & Prescott, 1990) developed an in-depth

methodological procedure to measure fluctuations for

various variables. They conclude that credit

considerations could play an important role in current and

future industrial activity.

the stock market might be used as a leading indicator for

real economic activities in the United States. For the

United Kingdom, (Thornton, 1993) also found that stock

returns tend to lead real economic activity. In related

work, (Chang & Pinegar, 1989) and (Chen et al., 1986) also

concluded that there is a close relationship between stock

market and the domestic economic activity.

hypothesis that recessions in economic activity tend to be

steeper and more short-lived that recovery in economic

activity. (Falk, 1986) extended the study of Neftci to

11

other economic series typically associated with the U.S.

industrial activity: real GNP, output per worker-hour, and

gross domestic private investment. In addition, he studied

the behavior of industrial production in Canada, Italy,

West Germany, the United Kingdom, and France. Furthermore,

during the past decade a significant number of papers have

investigated the excessive volatility in stock markets and

questioned the validity of the efficient financial market

hypothesis. (Schiller, 1989) summarizes these studies and

argues that volatilities in stock market indices are

excessive relative to the volatilities in real or monetary

variables.

activity theorists who must now explain not only potential

relations among changes in levels of real, monetary,

economic and financial variables, but also relations among

their volatilities. Actually, this is not a new idea;

(Friedman et al., 1963) had shown that changes in the

volatility of interest rates generated changes in the

volatility of industrial output. In their seminal paper,

(Chen, Roll and Ross, 1986) find that the following macro

variables were significant in explaining expected stock

market activity: industrial production, changes in the

risk premium, twists in the yield curve and, more weakly,

measures of unanticipated inflation and changes in

expected inflation during periods when these variables

were highly volatile.

(Chen et al., 1986) approach. (Hamao, 1988) tested the

12

Japanese market and found strong relations, except for the

case of Japanese monthly production.

significant relationship between stock market activity and

macroeconomic variables. (Poon & Taylor, 1991) are also

unable to explain activity in the UK by factors used by

Chen et al. More recently, (Kaneko & Lee, 1995) have re-

examined the US and the Japanese markets. They found that

both the term and risk premiums, as well as the growth

rate of industrial production, are significantly related

in the US. In Japan, however, international factors have

become increasingly more important. As opposed to the

findings of (Hamao, 1988), changes in oil prices, terms of

trade and exchange rates were significant in Japanese

stock market activity. (Jones & Kaul, 1996) investigated

the response in the stock market of oil prices in the US,

Canada, the UK, and Japan. They concluded that the US and

Canadian stock markets are rational, in the sense that the

response to oil shocks could be completely accounted for

by their impact on current and future cash flows. In the

UK and Japan, however, stock markets have overreacted to

new information about oil prices.

are affected by the discounted value of expected cash

flows. (Chen et al., 1986) and (Fama, 1990) have shown

real economic activity, interest rate and stock returns to

be correlated. However, most of these earlier studies

focus upon the short-run relationship between stock market

and financial and macro-economic variables, which may

13

remove important information contained in the permanent

component of economic activity concerning the evolution of

short-run movements. In comparison to the above, long-run

relationship between stock market and the economic

variables has received little attention of researchers

except in (Mukherjee, Naka, 1995), (Chung & Ng, 1998),

(Maysami & Koh, 2000) and (Nasseh & Strauss, 2000). By

using the concept of correlation, the empirical long run

relationships between stock market indices and measures of

economic activity and financial variables can be

investigated. Correlation between stock prices and

economic activity can be seen to be consistent with both

internal & theoretical consumption and production-based

models. These models suggest that stock prices are related

to expected future production through effect on the

discounted value of changes in cash flows and dividends,

(Cochrane, 1991).

theoretical structure have been applied in a more

pragmatic fashion to the two-way relationship between

stock market indices and real economic variables. The

regression model has been particularly popular in this

area given that it can be used as a framework for formal

examination of inter-relationships within a given data. A

relatively early application of the regression model to

the analysis of the relationship between the stock indices

and the macro economy is by (Lee, 1992) and more recent

ones can be found in (Cheung et al., 1998). Recently

several researchers like (Baestaens et al. 1995); (Kaastra

Ibeling & others 1996), (Katsurelis, 1998), (Kamath, 1999

14

and 2002) recommend the use of Artificial Neural Network

(ANN) for investigating the correlation relationship as

well as forecasting in capital markets, which has

tremendous promise in terms of methodology.

there have been several studies regarding the relationship

between the stock exchange activity and the key economic

variables. Taking the example of India, (Sharma Kennedy,

1977) and (Sharma, 1983) tested the weak-form efficiency

of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). Both of these studies

with the former covering the 1963-1973 period and the

later encompassing the 1973- 1971 period, conclude that

Indian stocks generally conformed to random-walk behavior

in that successive period changes were independent.

(Poterba & Summers, 1988), however, find evidence of mean

reversion in Indian stock prices, suggesting a deviation

from random-walk behavior. Technical analysis of the stock

market can thus be conducted based on this result.

with Akaike’s final prediction on the Indian data over

1948- 1984 and find that a significant causal relationship

exists between stock market activity and selected macro-

economic variables. (Naka, Mukherjee and Tufte, 1996) have

analyzed relationship among selected macroeconomic

variables and the Indian stock market. By employing a

regression model, they find that domestic inflation and

domestic output are the two most prominent factors

influencing stock market activity.

15

In a recent study under NSE Research Initiative (Kamath,

2002, paper no. 10) uses Artificial Neural Network (ANN)

to examine the relationship of macro-economic factors to

stock market activity. More recent studies like

(Bhattacharya & Mukherjee, 2002), (Rao & Rajeswari, 2000),

(Pethe & Karnik, 2000) use advanced methods in

econometrics to study the same relationship.

relationships between the BSE Sensex and five

macroeconomic variables. Their major findings are that

there is no linkage between the stock prices and money

supply, national income and interest rate while the index

of industrial production leads the stock price and there

exists a significant correlation between stock market

index and rate of inflation.

played by a good number of macro economic variables in

influencing the stock market when reduced into a

manageable number of economic factors. (Pethe & Karik,

2000) use regression and correlation models to test

relationship between stock market behavior and some macro-

economic variables.

between stock returns with other macroeconomic variables,

notably, inflation and national output as well as

industrial production. The inflation rate is an important

element in determining stock returns due to the fact that

during the times of high inflation, people recognize that

16

the market is in a state of economic difficulty. People

are laid off work, which could cause production to

decrease. When people are laid off, they tend to buy only

the essential items. Thus production is cut even further.

This eats into corporate profits, which in turn makes

dividends diminish. When dividends decrease, the expected

return of stocks decrease, causing stocks to depreciate in

value. (Fama, 1981), (Geske et al., 1983), (James et al.

1985), and (Stulz, 1986) all attempt to explain the

negative association between stock returns and inflation.

activity is negatively correlated with inflation (Fama &

Schwert, 1977; Gultekin, 1983; and recently Barnes et al.,

1999 among others). (Fama, 1981) explains the negative

short-run correlation between stock returns and inflation

by the negative short-run correlation between inflation

and real activity.

17

Chapter 3

METHOD

Data

period January 1994 until January 2004 is taken for all

variables. (N=120, for each variable).

the data used in the study has four portions:

regarding the Inflation rate of Pakistan, which is

fairly represented by the Consumer Price Index of

Pakistan or the CPI.

2. The second portion of the data is the information

regarding the industrial production level of

Pakistan, this is represented by the Quantum Index

of Manufacturing. This index is taken as a proxy for

real economic activity in Pakistan.

3. The third portion of the data is the Short-term

interest rates offered on very short term fixed or

term deposits. A weighted average of the rate of

return on 3 month or less fixed or term deposits

offered by all the scheduled banks in Pakistan is

taken.

18

4. Finally data for the Karachi Stock Exchange’s 100

index is taken. The reasons for taking the KSE-100

index and not an aggregate index representing all

the stock and companies listed in the KSE is that

the KSE-100 index is sufficiently representative of

the Pakistani Stock Market, since it accounts for

majority of the total trading volume.

Sources Of Data

used in this study. Data for the Industrial Production

Index, Consumer Price Index, and Interest Rates were

obtained from the State Bank of Pakistan’s Monthly

Statistical Bulletin, SBP’s Annual Reports and the

economic survey of Pakistan for the relevant years. Data

for the Karachi Stock Exchange Index were obtained from

Yahoo Financial Services and CBS MarketWatch in addition

to the statistical documents mentioned above.

Procedure

over the KSE index a linear regression model is used and

to determine the relationships between all the variables

selected including the independent and all the dependent

variables, a bivariate correlation model is used.

dependent and independent variables the compiled data will

19

be entered into the famous statistical package SPSS. Once

the data has been entered the required tests will be

conducted and the results will be used to analyze the

relationship between the KSE-100 index and the key

economic variables taken as estimators of the index.

interrelated, Pearson’s correlation test will also be

applied. The correlation test will indicate the level of

interrelatedness of the four variables i.e. KSE-100 index,

Industrial Production index, Short-term interest rates and

the level of inflation in the Pakistani economy over the

course of the time period taken.

20

CHAPTER 4

through SPSS are as follows.

followed by those for correlation between the four

variables i.e. KSE-100 index, Industrial production index

(IPI), Short-term interest rates of Pakistan and the

inflation level of Pakistan (INF).

Model Summary

Table 4.1

Std. Error

R Adjusted of the

Model R Square R Square Estimate

1 .867 .751 .745 361.86019

model which has been applied to the data. This table

displays R, R squared, adjusted R squared, and the

standard error.

21

R, the multiple correlation coefficient, is the

correlation between the observed and predicted values of

the dependent variable. The values of R for models

produced by the regression procedure range from 0 to 1.

values of R indicate stronger relationships. It can be

seen that the value of R obtained for our data results

is .867 which is a very high value given the fact that the

maximum value which R can obtain is 1.

coefficient of determination, R squared is the proportion

of variation in the dependent variable explained by the

regression model. Once again the values of R squared range

from 0 to 1. Small values indicate that the model does not

fit the data well whereas larger values of R squared

indicate the model fits the data well. Since the R squared

value for our data set is .751 which is a fairly large

value considering the fact that R squared value can at

most be equal to 1 it can be said that the model fits the

data very well.

closely reflect the goodness of fit of the model in the

population. It can be seen that even the adjusted R

squared, which presents a somewhat reduced value of R

squared, is giving a value of .745 which is a

significantly high value. The interpretation that can be

obtained from the adjusted R squared value is that 74.5%

of the variation in the KSE index is explained by the

22

variables selected in the model, i.e. 74.5% of the

variation in the Karachi Stock Exchange index is due to

that Inflation level in the economy, the level of short-

term interest rates and the level of industrial production

in the country.

(ANOVA) Model.

ANOVA

Table 4.2

Sum of Mean

Model Squares df Square F Sig.

1 Regression 4586524 15288414.

3 116.76 .000

4.166 722

Residual 1518936

116 130942.80

4.688

Total 6105460

119

8.853

analysis of variance. The sum of squares, degrees of

freedom, and mean square are displayed for two sources of

variation i.e. regression and residual. The output for

Regression displays information about the variation

accounted for the model, whereas the output for Residual

displays information about the variation that is not

accounted for by the model and the output for Total is the

sum of the information for Regression and Residual. The

mean square is the sum of squares divided by the degrees

of freedom (df). The F statistic is the regression mean

23

square (MSR) divided by the residual mean square (MSE).

The regression degrees of freedom is the numerator df and

the residual degrees of freedom is the denominator df for

the F statistic. The total number of degrees of freedom is

the number of cases minus 1. If the significance value of

the F statistic is small (smaller than say 0.05) then the

independent variables do a good job explaining the

variation in the dependent variable.

in comparison to the residual sum of squares indicates

that the model accounts for most of variation in the

dependent variable. It can be clearly seen from the table

that the value for regression sum of square is three times

larger than the value for the residual sum of square.

Since the value of the regression is larger than that of

the residual it can be said that the independent variables

account for most of the variation in the dependent

variable. In other words, the independent variables chosen

i.e. Pakistan’s Inflation level, Short-term interest rates

and level of industrial production account for most of the

variation in the dependent variable i.e. the Karachi Stock

Exchange index.

very small (.000) which means that the independent

variables i.e. CPI, IPI and STI do a very good job

explaining the variation in the dependent variable, i.e.

KSE.

24

The regression coefficients will now be explained and

analyzed.

Coefficients

Table 4.3

Unstandardized Standardized

Model Coefficients Coefficients T Sig.

Std.

B Error Beta

1 KSE 4352.300 284.287 15.310 .000

INF 3.198 .736 .266 4.343 .000

IPI -1.180 .643 -.097 -1.835 .069

STI -450.183 26.938 -1.049 -16.712 .000

coefficients of the estimated regression model. Often the

independent variables are measures in different units. The

standardized coefficients or betas are an attempt to make

the regression coefficients more comparable. The t

statistics can help to determine the relative importance

of each variable in the model. Once again the values are

significant if they are less than .05, any value greater

than .05 is not significant.

independent variables were measured in different units,

i.e. CPI and IPI were measured in absolute units whereas

STI was measured in percentage per annum. The results

suggest that there is a significant relationship between

the KSE index and all the independent variables except for

the industrial production index. There is no significant

25

regression association between the KSE index and the index

of industrial production index. As expected the Pakistani

benchmark stock exchange does not reflect and is not

affected by actual economic activity but is affected much

more by variation in the monetary variables such as the

interest rates and the level of inflation restricting or

relaxing the level of money available for investment into

the stock exchange. These results will be discussed in

greater detail once the data correlation results are

discussed and as, subsequently, the research questions are

answered one by one.

26

RESULTS OF CORRELATION ANALYSIS

correlation test applied to the sample data.

explained and the results will then be analyzed.

Correlations

Table 4.4

INF Pearson

1 -.410 .641 -.367

Correlation

Sig. .000 .000 .000

N 120 120 120 120

IPI Pearson

-.410 1 -.455 .272

Correlation

Sig. .000 .000 .003

N 120 120 120 120

STI Pearson

.641 -.455 1 -.834

Correlation

Sig. .000 .000 .000

N 120 120 120 120

KSE Pearson

-.367 .272 -.834 1

Correlation

Sig. .000 .003 .000

N 120 120 120 120

correlation is employed. The correlations table displays

Pearson correlation coefficients, significance values, and

the number of cases with non-missing values. The Pearson

27

correlation coefficient is a measure of linear association

between two variables. The values of the correlation

coefficient range from -1 to 1. The sign of the

correlation coefficient indicates the direction of the

relationship (positive or negative).

indicates the strength, with larger absolute values

indicating stronger relationships. The correlation

coefficients on the main diagonal are always 1.0, because

each variable has a perfect positive linear relationship

with itself. The significance of each correlation

coefficient is also displayed in the correlation table.

The significance level (or p-value) is the probability of

obtaining results as extreme as the one observed. If the

significance level is very small (less than 0.01) then the

correlation is significant and the two variables are

linearly related.

significance, all the variables except IPI reflect a very

small level of significance, smaller than the threshold .

01 level, signifying a high level of significance. The

only variable which has resulted in an insignificant level

of significance is the index of industrial production’s

correlation with the Karachi Stock Exchange index. This

result further validates the result obtained from the

regression analysis which indicates that the industrial

production index does not do a good job explaining

variation in the KSE index.

28

There is a no significant relationship between KSE and

IPI, i.e. the KSE index is not significantly affected by

any sort of change in the level of industrial production

in the Pakistani economy, this result has important

implications which shall be looked into more deeply later

on.

and STI, i.e. the KSE index is greatly affected in a

negative sense by an increase in the Short-term interest

rates prevailing in Pakistan and is affected positively by

a decrease in the short-term interest rates.

the dependent and the independent variables is looked into

in more detail along with support from economic theory in

the next section.

29

Research questions answered

INDUSTRIAL

KSE INDEX

PRODUCTION

index of industrial production. There does seem to exist a

very weak positive relationship between KSE and IPI i.e.

if one increases the other should increase and if one

decreases the other should decrease, but this relationship

does not seem to be a significant one since the level of

significance is greater than the threshold significance

level of .01 and thus the relationship cannot be called

significant. This result indicates that there is no

significant relationship between the aforementioned

variables at the 5% significant level. There would however

be significance at the 10% level, but as a norm these sort

of time series analysis are always taken ‘at most’ at the

5% significance level therefore it can be concluded that

there is no significant relationship between industrial

production and the KSE index.

involved in forecasting stock markets in Pakistan, since

the KSE is thought to significantly affect the other two

30

stock exchanges in the country i.e. the Lahore (LSE) and

Islamabad (ISE) stock exchanges, and also for policy

writers. Since the index of industrial production is taken

as a proxy for real economic activity in Pakistan, saying

that it has no significant relationship with Pakistan’s

premier benchmark stock market index means that the

Karachi Stock exchange is not significantly affected by

level of economic activity in Pakistan. A country’s stock

exchange is theoretically supposed to reflect the level of

economic activity prevalent, why KSE is not seems like an

economic anomaly. Further light on possible causes for

such behavior will be shed in the subsequent section.

INTEREST

KSE INDEX

RATES

relationship, in fact the strongest relationship of any

variable in this study, with the Karachi Stock Exchange

index. The correlation results suggest that there is an

83.4% negative relationship between the short-term

interest rates and the KSE index. This is a very strong

relationship indeed and falls exactly in place with

previous research conducted into the investment function

and how the stock exchange is a substitute for other means

of savings in the economy e.g. depositing money into

commercial banks in short-term fixed and term deposits.

31

As interest rates offered on deposits decrease people find

it more worthwhile to invest their money into other

avenues such as the stock exchanges and real estate etc. A

similar but opposite behavior is witnessed in the case of

an increase in interest rates. When interest rates

increase people find it more profitable to keep their

money in the bank than to invest it in avenues such as the

stock exchange. In this case in addition to gaining more

return by keeping their money in the bank the investor

also avoids facing the considerable amount of risk

inherent in all stock market investments.

economic theory regarding the inverse relationship between

interest rates and investment. When interest rates

decrease investment increases and when interest rates

increase investment decreases. It is simply a matter of

opportunity cost. The opportunity cost of investing in say

the stock market is the interest that would have been

received if the money had been kept with a bank, and since

the money is not being kept in the bank but is rather

invested in the stock market the opportunity cost of the

stock market investment is the amount of interest forgone.

If the opportunity cost (interest) is large enough then

the person ends up not investing in the stock market but

rather preferring to keep the money lying in the bank.

32

3. Does inflation affect industrial production index?

INDUSTRIAL

INFLATION

PRODUCTION

the level of inflation in the Pakistani economy and the

index of industrial production. The Pearson’s correlation

result indicate that there is a 41% negative relationship

between the consumer price index and the index of

industrial production.

operations research done which suggest that the demand for

a company’s product is the heaviest entity in its

production function. The greater the demand for a

company’s product the greater the level of production the

company will commit itself to in order to satisfy that

demand. It is also a well know fact that demand for a

product is dependent on the level of disposable income

available with the people. Furthering this chain of

relations, the level of disposable income available with

the public is directly related to the prevalent inflation

level in the economy, the more expensive things are,

ceteris paribus, the more money it will take to buy them

thereby reducing the amount of money left to buy other

things. This leads to a direct decrease in the level of

disposable income thereby reducing demand leading to a

decrease in the production function of all industries

across the board. The level of decrease in the production

33

function however depends on a multitude of other factors

such as the elasticity of demand of the product and

whether or not the product is a necessity of life and so

on.

34

4. Does inflation affect interest rates?

INFLATION INTEREST

RATES

rates and inflation, following the Pearson’s correlation

result it can be said that there is a 64.1% positive

relationship between inflation and interest rates i.e. if

the level of inflation increases so do the interest rates.

through monetary economic theory. One of the lead causes

of inflation is said to be “too much money chasing too few

goods”. It is a well known economic fact that when the

level of money supply increases in an economy the general

price level of goods also increases. People simply have

too much money and there are not that many goods to

satisfy the increase in demand that results from increase

in money with the public. This results in an increase in

commodity prices across the board otherwise known as

inflation.

the interest rates, and this is the practice that has, as

expected, been prevalent in the Pakistani market in the 10

year period from January 1994 to January 2004. The 64.1%

strong positive relationship between inflation and

interest rates can be attributed to prudent monetary

35

policy manipulation by the State Bank of Pakistan. This

relationship is depicted in figure 4.3 on page 50.

5. Does inflation affect KSE index?

inflation level prevalent in the Pakistani economy and the

KSE index. Pearson’s correlation suggests a 36.7% negative

correlation between the above mentioned two variables.

Being a weak correlation it does not deserve too much

attention nevertheless since there is a slight correlation

it is worth mentioning. One possible explanation of this

very weak correlation is that in case of an inflationary

trend the purchasing power of the public’s disposable

income, ceteris paribus, decreases. Inflation also

decreases the amount of investable funds since a greater

amount of the public’s disposable income goes towards the

transactionary use of money rather than towards the

speculative use of money.

investment use affects all investable avenues e.g. real

estate etc. Investment in the stock exchanges is simple

another use of investable money and it too therefore is

affected by inflationary trends.

36

6. Do interest rates affect industrial production?

INTEREST INDUSTRIAL

RATES PRODUCTION

correlation between short-term interest rates and

industrial production. The results indicate a 45.5%

negative correlation between the above mentioned two

variables. Once again the negative correlation can be

attributed to interest rates eating away at the demand for

the products of a company. An increase in interest rates

leads to people putting their money in banks and other

financial institutions rather than spending it on

purchasing goods and services. This decreases the amount

of money available to be spent on goods and services and

hence demand for goods suffers across the board. Same is

the case with businesses, they get a greater return

keeping their money in bank deposits rather than investing

it in their businesses or expanding their output capacity

etc.

of industrial production in the economy.

37

CHAPTER 5

correlation analysis, the following conclusion and

recommendations can be made:

CONCLUSION

variables can be summed up as follows:

KSE index and the short-term interest rates has been

observed over the course of the past ten years, this

finding is consistent with the findings of (Rozeff,1974)

in which he too observed a strongly negative correlation

between interest rates and the stock market index.

Additionally studies conducted by (Geske & Roll, 1983)

also look into the relationship between interest rates and

stock market activity and find a significant negative

relationship between the two.

relationship between interest rates and stock market

activity has been undertaken by (Friedman & Schwartz,

1963, 1982). They redirected the attention of the

38

researchers towards interest rates for predicting and

understanding the behavior of stock exchanges. They have

come up with the most convincing evidence, as of yet, that

interest rates most significantly affect stock market

activity.

Karachi Stock exchange has been discovered to be

insignificant, this finding is in direct contradiction to

most previous research conducted in advanced economies

such as the US and the UK. It is contrary to (Thornton,

1993)’s study into the UK market in which he found that

stock returns tend to lead real economic activity. It is

also contrary to (Chang and Pinegar, 1989) and (Chen et

al., 1986) who also concluded that there is a close

relationship between stock market and domestic economic

activity.

exchange is not efficient in the sense that it does not

reflect the country’s true economic activity but is highly

affected by changes in monetary variables, suggesting

speculative intentions at work.

(Mallaris and Urrutia, 1991) who studied the linkage among

industrial production, interest rates and the United

States’ S&P 500 Index; their results seem to suggest that

the interrelationships among the three variables are not

statistically significant. The bulk of the studies

39

conducted however report a significant relationship

between industrial production and stock market activity.

Exchange is found to be negative. This result conforms to

previous research conducted by (Fama, 1981) who

investigated the relationships among stock returns, real

economic activity, inflation and money. The results also

conform to studies conducted by (Darat and Mukherjee,

1987), (Naka, Mukherjee & Tufte, 1996) and (Bhattacharya

and Mukherjee, 2002). These studies employed various

regression models and concluded that domestic inflation is

one of the most prominent factors influencing stock market

activity. They also note that an increase in inflation

rates eats into corporate profits, which in turn makes

dividends diminish. When dividends decrease, the expected

return of stocks decrease, causing stocks to depreciate in

value further eroding the stock index.

well documented not only through empirical research but

also by virtue of deep rooted economic theory. The result

obtained from this study also validates these theories.

There seems to be a strong positive correlation between

these two variables for the most obvious reason that money

supply has a direct impact on inflation; and the interest

rate is the single most powerful determinant of money

supply. Furthermore the results obtained are in conformity

with previous research conducted by (Chen et al., 1986)

and (Fama, 1990)

40

The relationship between inflation and industrial

production appears to be negative. Once again this result

is in unison with previous research findings by (Plosser,

1989) which suggest that there is a significant negative

relationship between industrial production and inflation.

industrial production due to the fact that during the

times of high inflation, people recognize that the market

is in a state of economic difficulty. People are laid off

work, which causes production to decrease. When people are

laid off, they tend to buy only the essential items. Thus

production is cut even further.

industrial production gives a significant negative

outlook. This result is further reinforced by a previous

research study conducted by (Barro, 1977) which suggest a

negative correlation between the aforementioned variables.

1990) looks into this very relationship and concludes that

credit considerations, which are directly affected by

interest rates, could play an important role in current

and future industrial activity.

41

RECOMMENDATIONS

of key economic variables over the past ten years, the

following recommendations can be suggested:

research has been the insignificant relationship

between the Karachi Stock Exchange and the level of

industrial production in the economy. This result

seems to indicate that the Karachi stock exchange is

not efficient in the sense that it does not reflect

the country’s true economic activity but is highly

affected by changes in monetary variables.

The above mentioned fact suggests that the KSE is

moved largely by speculative motives rather than

‘real’ production and performance oriented motives,

policy decisions must be made to prevent this

behavior.

The ratio of blocked to floating shares in Pakistan

must be altered. In Pakistan this ratio is an

alarming 80 to 20, i.e. 80% blocked shares in

relation to 20% floating. In comparison the US has on

average the exact opposite ratio of blocked to

floating shares, i.e. 20:80 or 20% blocked in

relation to 80% floating. This can be one of the

reasons why the KSE index does not reflect real

economic activity. The staggering amount of shares

blocked reflect concentration of ownership of KSE

shares in the hands of a few, including large

42

institutional investors and foreign owners etc,

whereas the meager amount of floating shares reflect

the share ownership by the general public. This

unhealthy ratio encourages stock market manipulations

by a selected group of individuals and does not let

the index reflect a true picture of the economy. This

tendency must be looked into and policy decisions be

made to change the ratio.

The recent moves made by the Securities and Exchange

Commission of Pakistan (SECP) regarding

demutualization of the KSE are a welcome change and

should be expedited as soon as possible.

The KSE should be converted from a guarantee into a

regular company with share capital and its shares

should be made to float the market just like any

other company. This change along with making the KSE

board accountable to the investor public would also

encourage broader share ownership and prevent

accumulation of majority of shares in the hands of a

select few.

Another way of ensuring that the KSE index reflect

the true performance of the Pakistani economy is to

adopt a share index which is a ‘composite’ of all the

shares listed in the stock exchange rather than an

index of just a few selected shares which are most

widely traded. This move will discourage manipulation

of the index and result in a more realistic appraisal

of the stock market in relation to other markets in

the region and beyond.

43

REFERENCES

the Stock Market”. Journal of Business, Vol 59, No 3, pp

383- 395

arbitrage pricing theory: Using Japanese data”, Japan and

the World Economy 1, pp 45-61

economic factors in the US and Japanese stock markets”,

Journal of the Japanese and International economies 9, pp

290-307.

the Monetary Sector, Journal of Financial economics, 18,

253-276

Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Market Returns in

Developing Markets”, Multinational Business Review, Fall

97, pp 63-70

Between Macroeconomic Variables and the Japanese Stock

Market, Journal of Financial Researech. XVIII(2), PP 223-

237

Domestic and International Macroeconomic Activity”, The

Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 40, pp 229-245

and the UK stock market”, Journal of Business and

Accounting 18, pp 619-636

Model for the Analysis of the Impact of Monetary Policy on

Output and Inflation., in Monetary Policy and the

Inflation Process, BIS Conference Papers Vol.4.

44

Hendry, D.F. 1999. Does Money Determine UK Inflation

over the Long Run?, Nuffield College, Oxford, UK.

Issues), Islamabad, Ministry of Finance.

Pakistan”, (Various Issues), Islamabad, Federal Bureau of

Statistics.

price level in the United States, Journal of Political

Economy, 86, 549-580.

the macroeconomy, Journal of Finance, 46, 529-554.

theory and empirical work, Journal of Finance, 383-417.

inflation, and money, American Economic Review, 71, 545-

565.

real activity, Journal of Finance, 45, 1089-1108.

of Finance, 46, 1575-1617.

business cycles, Review of Economics and Statistics, 45,

32-64.

in the United States and the United Kingdom (University of

Chicago Press, Chicago IL).

linkage between stock returns and inflation, Journal of

finance, 38, 1-33

cycles: real facts and a monetray myth, Quarterly Review

of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, 14, 3-18.

45

Mallaris, A.G. and Urrutia, J.L., 1991, An empirical

investigation among real, monetary, and financial

variable, Economic Letters, 37, 151-158.

efficiency and the lag in effect of monetary policy,

Journal of Financial Economics, 2, 245-302.

capital market equilibrium under conditions of risk,

Journal of Finance, 19, 425-442.

Stock Market in a Developing Economy, Economics Letters

22, 273-278.

Inflation, Journal of Financial Economics 5, 115-146.

Interest Rates, Real Activity, and Inflation, Journal of

Finance, 47, 1591-1603.

Analysis of Stock Price Behavior on the Bombay, London,

and New York Stock Exchanges, Journal of Financial and

Quantitative Analysis 17, 391-413.

Character of Stock Price Behavior in a Developing Economy

Indian Economic Journal 31, no.2, 53-57.

and Interest Rates”, American Economic Review, 82, 472-492.

Conference Report series, Chicago and London: University

of Chicago Press, pp ix, 447.

Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock

Market Behavior,. NBER Working Paper no. 4995 (January).

the Causal Relationship between Stock Market and

Macroeconomic Aggregates in India: An Empirical Analysis,

46

Paper Presented in the 4th Annual Conference on Money and

Finance, Mumbai.

Returns in the United States and Japan; A Study of Long-

term Capital Integration, Journal of Finance, 47, 43-67.

on the Stock Market and the Aggregate Economic Activity,

Journal of Empirical Finance, 5, 281-296.

the Link between Stock Return and Economic Fluctuations,

Journal of Finance, 46, 209-238.

Variables and the Performance of the Indian Stock Markets,

Financial Management Association meeting, Orlando.

Markets Matter?- Stock Market Indices and Macro-economic

Variables, Economic and Political Weekly, 35 (5), 349-

356

Factors and Stock Prices in India: A Study, Paper

presented in the Capital Markets Conference 2000, Mumbai

47

Correlations, Standardized Multiple Regression Coefficients, Standard errors in

Parenthesis, t values in Brackets, F-statistics and p-values in Italic

Table 4.5

rates Production Square Statistic

KSE-100 1.000 -.834 .272 -.367 .751 116.76

Index - -1.049 -.097 .266

(284.287) (26.938) (.643) (.736)

[15.310] [-16.712] [-1.835] [4.343]

.000 .000 .069 .000 .000

48

Figure 4.1

KSE-100 Index

5000

4500

4000

3500

3000 KSE-100

2500

2000 Mean

1500

1000

500

0

1994JAN

1997JAN

2000JAN

2003JAN

JUL

JUL

JUL

OCT

OCT

OCT

OCT

APL

APL

APL

Figure 4.2

9

8

7

6

5 STI

4 Mean

3

2

1

0

1994JAN

1996JAN

1998JAN

2000JAN

2002JAN

SEP

SEP

MAY

SEP

MAY

SEP

MAY

SEP

MAY

MAY

49

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1994JAN 1994JAN

SEP SEP

MAY MAY

1996JAN 1996JAN

SEP SEP

MAY MAY

1998JAN 1998JAN

SEP SEP

MAY MAY

2000JAN 2000JAN

Inflation

SEP SEP

MAY MAY

2002JAN 2002JAN

SEP SEP

MAY MAY

Figure 4.4

Figure 4.3

IPI

CPI

mean

mean

50

APPENDIX: DATA/OBSERVATIONS

1994JAN 265.58 295.7 6.67 2178.11

FEB 268.84 274.3 6.67 2291.18

MAR 269.97 276 6.67 2528.16

APL 276.72 249.1 6.67 2448.71

MAY 275.8 203 6.67 2381.72

JUN 278.46 200.1 6.67 2244.04

JUL 282.95 195.9 6.73 2319.77

AUG 285.59 194.2 6.79 2281.36

SEP 289.74 189.8 6.85 2196.65

OCT 294.6 198.5 6.91 2324.67

NOV 298.74 238 6.97 2157.97

DEC 301.29 294.2 7 2143.3

1995JAN 306.17 317.3 6.95 2078.2

FEB 305.77 284.7 6.9 1812.56

MAR 308.46 234.5 6.85 1864.19

APL 308.72 270 6.8 1711.71

MAY 310.08 214 6.75 1532.71

JUN 312.28 221.2 6.69 1513.49

JUL 160.98 200.9 6.79 1605.89

AUG 164.23 204.9 6.83 1801.71

SEP 165.7 205.2 6.9 1754.53

OCT 165.88 226.6 6.97 1663.87

NOV 167.66 267.7 7.04 1547.14

DEC 168.78 313 7.08 1416.9

1996JAN 169.41 298.8 7.11 1464.29

FEB 170.6 275.7 7.14 1631.94

MAR 172.9 289.9 7.17 1727.98

APL 174.3 231.3 7.2 1571

MAY 174.95 223.3 7.23 1715.64

JUN 175.14 226.6 7.28 1749.66

JUL 177.59 213.4 7.3 1653.92

AUG 179.9 207.9 7.32 1502.54

SEP 181.99 205.9 7.34 1353.67

OCT 184.17 221.5 7.36 1397.49

NOV 186.4 238.6 7.38 1500.47

DEC 188.03 307.2 7.39 1474.21

1997JAN 192.11 290.5 7.48 1371.29

FEB 194.2 264.4 7.59 1588.48

MAR 193.33 300.8 7.66 1640.91

APL 197.96 227 7.75 1602.68

MAY 197.57 206.4 7.84 1541.98

JUN 196.95 214.6 7.93 1504.54

JUL 198.17 212.4 7.87 1989.51

AUG 199.46 210.2 7.81 1762.29

SEP 200.72 203.7 7.75 1849.7

OCT 201.53 217.7 7.69 1875.01

51

NOV 203.03 241.5 7.63 1772.24

DEC 203.26 336.7 7.59 1753.82

1998JAN 203.15 336.6 7.49 1609.16

FEB 203.88 323.1 7.39 1681.83

MAR 207.49 334.1 7.29 1553.06

APL 208.42 263.1 7.19 1562.22

MAY 208.73 220.7 7.09 1040.19

JUN 209.71 219.6 7.02 879.61

JUL 211.52 216.3 7.17 920.48

AUG 213.37 219.3 7.32 970.78

SEP 213.61 223 7.47 1111.46

OCT 214.66 219.6 7.62 841.7

NOV 215.68 243.3 7.77 1050.97

DEC 216.19 346.4 7.93 945.24

1999JAN 215.8 331.8 7.82 900.58

FEB 216.61 340 7.71 926.21

MAR 217.36 362.2 7.6 1056.75

APL 217.94 278 7.49 1107.02

MAY 217.78 233 7.38 1222

JUN 217.43 236.3 7.28 1054.67

JUL 218.77 237.4 7.22 1251.79

AUG 220.11 238.5 7.16 1206.51

SEP 221.45 239.6 7.1 1199.29

OCT 222.8 240.7 7.04 1189.32

NOV 222.99 287.4 6.98 1247.4

DEC 222.75 367.9 6.95 1408.91

2000JAN 223.2 325.6 6.89 1772.84

FEB 223.16 315.4 6.83 1930.61

MAR 225.12 272.2 6.77 1999.69

APL 226.39 230.1 6.71 1901.07

MAY 226.15 259.9 6.65 1536.65

JUN 228.52 246.2 6.62 1520.73

JUL 229.81 237.2 6.68 1554.9

AUG 229.68 250.18 6.74 1518.27

SEP 231.92 263.16 6.8 1564.78

OCT 233.24 276.14 6.86 1489.32

NOV 235.05 289.1 6.92 1276.05

DEC 234 314.7 6.96 1507.59

2001JAN 233.62 344.3 6.98 1461.6

FEB 233.43 382.5 7 1423.18

MAR 234.54 361.7 7.02 1324.41

APL 235.33 265.9 7.04 1367.05

MAY 234.27 284.9 7.06 1377.61

JUN 234.29 277 7.06 1366.43

JUL 235.51 253.9 6.81 1228.89

AUG 237.54 263.3 6.56 1258.43

SEP 238.57 265.83 6.31 1133.43

OCT 239.22 268.36 6.06 1406.05

NOV 103.43 273.4 5.81 1358.16

DEC 102.95 344.9 5.56 1273.06

52

2002JAN 103.06 415.1 5.45 1620.18

FEB 103.39 349 5.34 1765.95

MAR 104.74 380.2 5.23 1868.11

APL 105.1 332.4 5.12 1898.95

MAY 104.4 294.3 5.01 1663.34

JUN 104.9 276.5 4.92 1770.11

JUL 106.04 267.6 4.78 1787.59

AUG 106.37 274.6 4.64 1974.58

SEP 106.57 251.8 4.5 2018.75

OCT 106.57 273.8 4.36 2278.54

NOV 106.65 316.6 4.22 2285.87

DEC 106.39 394.9 4.07 2701.41

2003JAN 106.56 417.4 3.7 2545.07

FEB 107.06 394.3 3.33 2399.14

MAR 107.09 454.3 2.96 2715.71

APL 107.45 368.5 2.59 2902.41

MAY 107.14 289.9 2.22 3099.04

JUN 106.92 296.5 1.84 3402.47

JUL 107.53 287.6 1.7 3933.37

AUG 108.24 301.9 1.56 4461.47

SEP 108.89 303.6 1.42 4027.34

OCT 110.49 317.4 1.28 3781.03

NOV 111.15 289.4 1.14 4068.29

DEC 112.2 476 0.99 4471.6

53

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