Latin American Hegemony Impact File

*** LA HEG BAD

Fails – General – 1NC
Internal conflicts mean Was ington is !etter off letting Latin America sol"e t eir o#n pro!lems Naim $ (Moises Naim -- a senior associate in Carnegie’s International Economics Program, Focusing on IR and Global Politics and Chief of El Pa s, !"ain’s largest ne#s"a"er -- For the Carnegie Endo#ment for International Peace -- $%he Good Neighbor !trateg&$ 'ul& (th, )**+ -carnegieendo#ment,org-)**+-*(-*(-good-neighbor-strateg&-./a01 !M 2 "residential election too close to call, 2ggrie3ed 3oters in the streets, Partisans e/changing accusations of fraud and demanding manual recounts, 4a#&ers drooling in e/"ectation of #ee5s of court fights, !ound familiar6 It should, Me/ico Cit& toda& feels a lot li5e %allahassee, Fla,, si/ &ear ago, 7ut Me/ico8s election is about much more than #ho #ill become the countr&8s ne/t President, and its result #ill ha3e lasting im"lications for 4atin 2merica as a #hole , In )***, although 9,!, 3oters #ere choosing bet#een
t#o 3er& different "residential candidates, onl& a minorit& felt that the outcome #ould drasticall& alter the basic foundations of the nation, Not so for Me/icans, :oters belie3ed the election #ould not onl& decide #ho #ould run the

countr& for si/ &ears but also, more fundamentall&, #hat 5ind of "olitical and economic s&stem Me/ico #ould ha3e, %he "latforms of the t#o leading candidates--the conser3ati3e Feli"e Calder;n and the leftist 2ndr<s
Manuel 4;"e= >brador--differed on the roles of the state 3s, the mar5et, the nature of "olitical institutions, ho# to fight "o3ert& and #hat 5inds of lin5s Me/ico should ha3e #ith the rest of the #orld, %hat clash of 3isions is not confined to Me/ico,

!imilar battles are raging throughout 4atin 2merica, #hich is #itnessing the rise of a generation of "oliticians see5ing to ca"itali=e on frustration #ith the free-mar5et, "ro-2merican "olicies commonl& "ursued in the region in the 0??*s, #hen much #as "romised and little #as accom"lished in terms of raising li3ing standards, %he leader of this turn to#ard "o"ulism is :ene=uelan President @ugo ChA3e=, #ho has cast himself as the heir to Fidel Castro, using his countr&8s oil bonan=a to "urchase "olitical influence all o3er the continent, 7ut
in recent months, the ChA3e= mo3ement has run u" against o""osition from forces that 3ie# it as #rongheaded, militaristic and undemocratic, In Me/ico8s election, as in Peru8s last month, ChA3e= turned out to be more of a liabilit& than an asset to the leftist candidate carr&ing his banner, %hat ambi3alence "ro3ides an o""ortunit& for the 9,!, %he issues fueling the ChA3e=

mo3ement--"o3ert&, ineBualit&, e/clusion, corru"tion and #ides"read frustration--ha3en8t gone a#a&, Ces"ite the "erorations of "o"ulists li5e ChA3e= and Castro, 4atin 2merica8s maladies are not made in Dashington but are
self-inflicted #ounds originating in the "redator& <lites that control "olic&ma5ing in "laces li5e 7uenos 2ires, Caracas, 7ras lia and Me/ico Cit&, %hose are "roblems for #hich Dashington has ne3er had the s5ills or the means to

influence, >n the #hole, the 9,!, is better off letting 4atin 2mericans figure out ho# to sol3e 4atin 2merica8s "roblems,

Fails – Economics – 1NC
%acroeconomic fail&res mean pro!lems can ne"er act&ally !e sol"e' in Latin America Naim 11 (Moises Naim -- a senior associate in Carnegie’s International Economics Program, Focusing on IR and Global Politics and Chief of El Pa s, !"ain’s largest ne#s"a"er -- For the Carnegie Endo#ment for International Peace $Dhile Dashington !lee"s$ March )Erd, )*00 carnegieendo#ment,org-)*00-*E-)E-#hile-#ashington-slee"s-EFth1 !M
In "olitics, a ne# cohort of "residents has been elected through fair and free elections, 2ll of these ne#l& elected heads of state come to "o#er #ith broadl& "ositi3e attitudes to#ard the 9nited !tates, Dhile Fust a fe# &ears ago @ugo ChA3e= enFo&ed the admiration of the 3ast maForit& of 4atin 2mericans #ho detested George D, 7ush, toda& ChA3e=’ "o"ularit& has "lummeted, Mean#hile, li5e e3er&#here else in the #orld, the election of 7arac5 >bama as "resident #as #idel& cheered in the Destern hemis"here, Get, li5e others,

4atin 2mericans feel disa""ointed as the ne# 9,!, "residentHchallenged b& domestic "roblems and distracted b& international emergenciesHhas failed to meet their high and clearl& unrealistic e/"ectations about a maFor redefinition of 9,!, "olicies to#ard its southern neighbors, %he& are right, President
>bama #ould be hard "ressed to describe the fundamental #a&s in #hich his go3ernment’s "olicies to#ard 4atin 2merica differ from those of his "redecessor, Nonetheless, >bama’s "ersonal standing and "o"ularit& in the region remain 3er& high, Ces"ite the o""ortunities created b& the 9,!, "resident’s good standing, the man& ne# 4atin go3ernments eager to engage constructi3el& #ith the 9nited !tates, and the "ossibilities created b& the ra"id changes ta5ing "lace south of the border, the 9,!, go3ernment’s "resence and influence in its o#n bac5&ard continues to be subdued and constrained, Mean#hile, other countries are enlarging

their foot"rints in 4atin 2merica, China and Iran, for e/am"le, #ere once remote and un5no#n in the region, %oda&, China has gained a significant economic influence in 4atin 2merica and Iran has forged an un"recedented "olitical "resence #ith se3eral countries thereHnotabl& :ene=uela and others in the 7oli3ian 2lternati3e for the 2mericas (24721 grou", Russia has also made un"recedented strides as a su""lier to the armed forces of countries that, mostl& in the "ast, relied on 9,!, com"anies for their arms "rocurement, %he region is also rife #ith "olitical and economic changeHe3en in "laces #here "olitics and economic "olicies ha3e been stagnant for half a centur& or more, In Cuba, Fidel Castro recentl& ac5no#ledged to a 3isiting 9,!, Fournalist that the island’s economic model no longer #or5s, Dhile he Buic5l& recanted his indiscrete comment, facts s"o5e
louder than his #ords, 'ust three da&s after Castro e/"lained that he #as misunderstood and misBuoted, the Cuban go3ernment announced the dismissal of I**,*** go3ernment em"lo&ees (0* "ercent of the countr&’s #or5force1, 2ccording to the go3ernment, la&offs are necessar& because the economic #a&s of the "ast are no longer sustainable, Get, in toda&’s 4atin 2merica,

macroeconomic failure is more the e/ce"tion than the norm, Dhile the economies of Cuba and :ene=uela ran5 among the #orst "erformers in the #orld , those of 7ra=il, Colombia, Chile, Peru, and other
countries are booming, E3en Me/icoH#hich suffers from chronic slo# gro#th and #as hard hit b& narcotics 3iolence, "andemics, and other maFor shoc5sHis reco3ering at an uncharacteristicall& fast cli", %he 3oracious global a""etite for the region’s natural resources s"urred gro#th #hile good economic "olicies 5e"t inflation and deficits in chec5, %he fa3orable e/ternal economic en3ironment, good macro-economic management, and more effecti3e anti-"o3ert& "olicies ha3e had enormousl& "ositi3e social im"acts, In recent &ears, tens of millions of 4atin 2mericans #ere able to im"ro3e their economic situation and lea3e the ran5s of the "oor, 2 fast-gro#ing middle class is an im"ortant and #elcome no3elt& in a region #here middle-income grou"s #ere not onl& relati3el& small but #ere regularl& "ushed bac5 into "o3ert& b& bouts of declining #ages, unem"lo&ment, inflation, and ban5ing crises that 3a"ori=ed their sa3ings, >f course, all of this does not mean that the traditional "roblems that

"lagued the region ha3e been sol3ed, 7ad schools and uni3ersities, "oor health care, corru"tion, and ineBualit& are still endemic, 2nd ne# tragedies ha3e emergedJ the car bombs, torture, and the beheading of ri3als #e sa# on the ne#s from IraB and 2fghanistan no# come instead from Me/ico, More "eo"le are 5illed in a #ee5end in Caracas than in Kabul or 7aghdad, 4atin 2merica is one of the most criminal regions in the #orld in terms of murders and the "ercentage of its econom& related to illicit traffic5ing, %his is not a "roblem #ith an eas& solution,

L!etting the 2gendaJ 2sia and 4atin 2merica in the )0st Centur&M. a serious debate #ill emerge in 2rgentina as #ell. but 3er& little has ha""ened. !enior Fello#. %he t#o countries S signed agreements #ith great fanfare. on balance. In conseBuence. %he 2"ril )*0) !ummit of the S 2mericas in Cartagena #as a clear indication of the absence of 9! leadershi" and focus. China has become S the lender of last resort and a maFor in3estor. Can #e imagine a Mercosur "olic& on China6 Can Me/ico get the S countries of Central 2merica to Foin a regional res"onse to Chinese trade6 It is also "ossible that a S "olic& based on em"hasis of the rule of la# #ill "ro3ide a frame#or5 for dealing #ith an& e/ternal S inVuence on the region’s domestic "olicies. S %hat brings me bac5 to China. S is handled as an outgro#th of concern for the domestic econom&. Moreo3er. %he Chileans also ha3e ta5en u" the S debate. it is m& S 3ie# that. as if China #ere a large industrial S &a# ta5ing in unimaginable Buantities of 4atin 2merican ra# materials. China’s role in 4atin 2merica is still ill formed. but not im"ossible. the role it has "la&ed in the 9! for S decades and. the o"aBue manner in #hich such Chinese enter"rises S o"erate raises sus"icions. "g )0N htt"J--scholarl&re"ositor&. In Ecuador and :ene=uela. and "ublic discussion #ill continue S to entertain #ild s"eculations and cons"irac& theories. creating a serious "olitical "roblem for President Cilma Rouseff. #hich interests me the most. 7ush administration. most "rominentl&. China "la&s se3eral different roles in 4atin 2merica. not lender. it continues its S more traditional role of e/"orter of chea" manufactured goods. 2nother scenario is that 7ra=il #ill ta5e the S lead to get the Comunidad de Estados 4atinoamericanos & CaribeUos (CE42C1 or 9ni. has lac5ed a clear 3ie# of the role of 4atin 2mericaHeither S an& single 4atin 2merican countr& or the grou" of countries o"erating #ithin the frame#or5 of the S >rgani=ation of 2merican !tates (>2!1 or 9NHin the "ost-Cold Dar #orld. in the mining sector. %he most S "rominent is its seemingl& insatiable consum"tion of commodities. the 9! go3ernment. In addition. . the strategic frame#or5 used b& the 9! go3ernment has reduced 4atin 2merica S to a =one of relati3e insigniTcance. S %he role that concerns the radical declinists and the Pentagon is the soft-s"o5en Chinese role of S lender and in3estor. e/tracted #ith Chinese labor and "rotected b& Chinese troo"s. #hich 3aries from countr& to S countr&. %hroughout the 2ndean region. If I #ere to #rite a "a"er on S this to"ic. the Chinese "resence S is considered another form of anti-im"erialism and the rise of China e3idence of 9! decline. >ne is that neither the 9! nor the 4atin 2merica nations #ill S formulate a collecti3e "olic& to deal #ith the ne# "henomenon . it ser3es as a maFor S in3estor. !e3eral S scenarios are "ossible going for#ard. %his alread& has stirred nationalist sentiment in Peru. since the beginning S of the George D. it is 3er& difTcult to demonstrate S an& grou" consensus among the nations in 4atin 2merica . Chinese state-controlled enter"rises S generall& o"erate through third "arties. the nations of 4atin 2merica ha3e found S it e/tremel& difTcult to Tnd their o#n 3oices to e/"ress their ne# sense of agenc&. %he "roblem is not that some countr& is threatening 9! interests S in the hemis"here or using the hemis"here to threaten the 9!N instead. S Neither 7ush nor >bama has been able to focus sufTcientl& on the hemis"here to "roduce a coherent foreign "olic& that satisTes 9! interests in 4atin 2merica and res"onds to the ne#l& S emerging 3oices in the region. In most e/am"les of direct in3estment. #hich could easil& be the focus of regional or collecti3e attention. #hich ma5es an& S collaborati3e effort among them more difTcult. %hat is the role ChA3e= tried to get China to "la& in :ene=uela. e/"ert in contem"orar& 4atin 2merican studies.edu-cgi-3ie#content.n de Naciones S !uramericanas (9N2!9R1 to formulate a collecti3e res"onse based on shared 3alues or interests. S 2t this moment. S has de3oted most of its attention to issues tied directl& to domestic concerns. at least one that can be translated into S collecti3e action or Foint "olic&. to imagine a concerted effort to formulate rules concerning S in3estments in natural resources. setting off alarm bells about a re"eat of e/"eriences in 2frica. #ith almost S no attem"t to Tnd #a&s to tie the hemis"here together or e/"lore increasing regional collaboration. since ?-00. Dhat are the "olic& res"onses b& 4atin S 2merican nations to China’s ne# "resence6 %he onl& clear ans#er is in the case of 7ra=il. #here S a Chinese state-o#ned com"an& sent in uniformed Chinese securit& guards to "rotect the com"an&’s S "ro"ert&. and there are signs that if an& of the announced Chinese in3estments in the mining and S energ& sectors actuall& get off the ground. E3en trade. !uch in3estment "roFects are embedded sociall& in #a&s that do not occur in other S forms of loans or trade s#a"s. Con3ersel&. In fact. S %his brings me to the third Buestion. %he e3idence of Chinese S intentions is ambiguous.Fails – Diplomacy – 1NC (tr&ct&ral Barriers )re"ent *( lea'ers ip in Latin America +&lc in 1. In Ecuador. noted for their loud rhetorical noises against the 9!. in dealing #ith the hemis"here. #here S there is signiTcant tension bet#een the t#o go3ernments. S Part of the "roblem is that in the "ost-Cold Dar "eriod.miami. It is "la&ing both roles in 7ra=il S at the moment. %he "roblem is not S China but rather the lac5 of a clear 9! stance and a #ea5 "olic& debate in 4atin 2merica. it is difTcult. Me/ico and Central 2merica Program at @ar3ard 9ni3ersit&('ose"h %ulchin. and Cuba. s"eciali=ing in foreign "olic& and com"arati3e urban de3elo"ment. the 9!. the nationalist reaction in the region to Chinese "retensions is much more signiTcant than an& S "ossible 9! res"onse.cgi6 articleO0***Pconte/tOclasQ"ublicationsR In an effort to ma5e a com"licated subFect as sim"le as "ossible in a short "resentation. I #ould focus on the "erce"tion in 4atin 2merican nations. #ith due diligence "erformed b& "ri3ate Trms contracted S to do the #or5. there S are clear signs of considerable disagreement among the nations of the region. in Me/ico for the "ast t#ent& &ears. 2nd S &et. of the roles China does or might "la& in the region. 2n& argument that 9! hegemon& is in decline assumes S a uni3ocal 4atin 2merican res"onse to that hegemon&.immigration. %he current Pentagon nightmare is of Chinese statecontrolled in3estment S in the lithium de"osits of 7oli3ia. For S e/am"le. such as drug trafTc5ing.

2nd it remains to be seen #hether it #ill in3est time in 7ra=il and other $noncrisis$ cases #hen so much of Dashington8s alread& limited attention has been occu"ied b& @aiti. ho#e3er.Fournals-fora?*Pdi3O. and man& go3ernments. since it ma5es it easier for #illing go3ernments to coo"erate #ith Dashington on shared "riorities #ithout a""earing to be subser3ient to the old hegemon. it became much harder to use the 9. President George D.org-@>4-Page6 handleOhein. %his strateg& bac5fired. LPost-2merican @emis"hereJ Po#er and Politics in an 2utonomous 4atin 2merica.E (Ma&'une )*001J "XE. htt"J--heinonline. 7ut it #as too little. refused. In 2"ril )**?.!. on the defensi3e--#here the& ha3e remained e3er since.!. ?*. 7ush ado"ted a hea3&-handed. Get Me/ico8s dee"l& ingrained sus"icion of 9. it is indis"ensable to restoring Dashington8s influence in 4atin 2merica. attem"ting to force go3ernments there to a""ro3e the 9. in3asion of IraB and ensure 9. the >bama administration has not made 4atin 2merica a "riorit&. a countr& sorel& in need of 9. @a3ing recast the mood of the relationshi" bet#een the 9nited !tates and 4atin 2merica. lest Dashington find itself accused of 3iolating Me/ico8s so3ereignt& &et again. %he 9nited !tates8 enhanced image should not be dismissed as a mere "ublic relations 3ictor&N rather. the >bama administration must no# figure out ho# to "ut its strateg& into "ractice. soldiers8 e/em"tion from the Furisdiction of the International Criminal Court.!. moti3es means that an& initiati3es to counter this cross-border threat must be "ursued delicatel&. em"hasi=ing mutual res"ect and outlining a 3ision of eBual "artnershi"s and Foint res"onsibilit&. critics. %his ma& not be so badJ a little breathing room is a""ro"riate. 7ush attem"ted a more conciliator& a""roach.!.!. culti3ating a "ersonal relationshi" #ith the leftist 4ula.?PgQsentO01--@24 4E%%ING G> >F 42%IN 2MERIC2 In his first term.an im"licit call for 4atin 2merica to sol3e its o#n "roblems. . unilateral a""roach to 4atin 2merica. assistance to combat its drug 3iolence. and >rtega. gi3en the region8s current stabilit&. It #ill need to sho# #hat strategic "atience and understated leadershi" actuall& loo5 li5e.M Foreign 2ffairs. @e #as Princi"al Cirector for the Destern @emis"here at the 9.!. such as Cha3e=. and Me/ico.Fails – Anti-Americanism – 1NC Attempts at reasserting *( egemony in t e region increases Anti-american !ac. for instance.-bashing strateg&.!. 2fter >bama too5 office. Ce"artment of Cefense in )**? and Cirector for 2ndean 2ffairs at the National !ecurit& Council in )*0*-00 (Russell. 2 critical test of that is Me/ico. Morales. at the !ummit of the 2mericas in %rinidad. @is deferential &et serious st&le Buic5l& "ut the most cons"iratorial anti-9. >bama8s a""roach to the region can be seen as a more concerted continuation of the one 7ush ado"ted in his second term. em"hasi=ing res"onsibilit& as a "rereBuisite for coo"eration and leadershi" . !o in his second term. %he >bama administration also needs to resist the tem"tation to allo# strategic "atience to slide into neglect. 9. including traditional 9. >bama tried to "ut his im"rimatur on Dashington8s 4atin 2merica "olic&. >ther than focusing on Me/ico8s drug 3iolence . "artners such as Chile and Me/ico.!. too lateN Cha3e= and other radicals still "la&ed u" 7ush8s re"utation as a bull&.las Cran'all 11 W 2ssociate Professor of International Politics at Ca3idson College and the author of %he 9nited !tates and 4atin 2merica 2fter the Cold Dar.!. @onduras.

%he "rinci"le of national so3ereignt&S conflicts #ith attem"ts to frame a uni3ersal order based on a laisse=-faireS global econom&.-led globali=ation has left large "oc5ets of 4atin 2mericanS societies behind. S Dhile critics often #rite off ChA3e=’s nationalist and anti-im"erialist rhetoric S as a tactic to distract :ene=uelans from "roblems at home.umich.n & Informaci. L>bama and the 7oli3arian 2gendas of the 2mericasMN4atin 2merican Pers"ecti3es )*00N htt"J--la".+. in fact the roots S of 7oli3arian di"lomac& are to be found in the debates and discussions thatS too5 "lace among &oung 4ieutenant ChA3e=. %he re"ort laments that La strong and gro#ing sentimentHS "romoted b& a ne# generation of "o"ulist leadersHhas also emerged in theS region that 9. )**01 continues to haunt the liberal internationalist 3ision of aS uni3ersal order based on com"arati3e ad3antage.-. hel"ed the :ene=uelan "ut these 3ie#s in aS more "rogressi3e frame#or5. and communication that >bama "ossesses in abundance. and former S guerrillas. L>bama and the 7oli3arian 2gendas of the 2mericasMN4atin 2merican Pers"ecti3es )*00N htt"J--la". )**(1. but ChA3e=’s affinit& for leaders li5e .com. )**X1. )*00.S 2lthough ChA3e= has sometimes "raised >bama. )**. under theS "atronage of the Center for !trategic and International !tudies.0S It is e3ident that. )*00.M %his sentiment. 'une )E. in light of the "rogressi3e and democratic ste"s of our continent. 3eterans of the defeated armed insurgenc& of the 0?+*s.edu-content-EX-. argue that the 9nited !tates should "refer multilateral di"lomac& (Cohen. and 2rmitage.-.n.sage"ub. the 9nited !tates is a central "olitical andS militar& "o#er "residing o3er a 3ast s&stem of decentrali=ed economic "o#er. Professor of Political !cience at Debster 9ni3ersit& in !t. )**X1. and liberal democrac&.S securit& "olicies in areas li5e the drug trade and terrorism. he did embrace the claim that 9. or should the& "ursueS regional economic integration inde"endent of the 9nited !tates and attem"tS also to di3ersif& their trade "artners b& dealing #ith 2sia and Euro"e6 !houldS the& de3elo" inde"endent LmultitudeMS (@ardt and Negri. or should the& be sus"icious and insist on theirS so3ereign right to choose the form of go3ernment best suited to their needs6 No ope for Latin American Hegemony-Boli"arianism is in erently anti-American Hellinger 11. 2s in the ancient #orld.NC *( softpo#er fails in Latin America. 4ouis.edu-content-EX-.S the North 2merican Em"ireH#hich in the last hundred &ears has e/ercisedS its hegemon& o3er the li3es of our re"ublicsHhas initiated an anachronisticS and reactionar& counteroffensi3e #ith the "ur"ose of sub3erting the union. )**X1. a blue"rint forS smart "o#er.S or should the& #or5 to enhance securit& through the >2!6 !hould the&S #elcome Dashington’s attem"ts to "romote liberal democrac& and use it to gainS di"lomatic le3erage in defense of "o"ulist or re3olutionar& regimes that gainS legitimac& through elections. leftist intellectuals.S these #riters also see resistance to such an order in the figure of the %he ca"acit& and #ill of elites in the 9nited !tates to ad3ance such a "roFectS "oses obstacles to the "ros"ects for 7oli3arian di"lomac& . is Lta""ing into old threads S of anti-2mericanismM (Cohen. combined #ith fears of 9. #here he also directs the International Relations Program(Caniel @ellinger.full.MS %he >bama administration has ado"ted his u"dated 3ersion of Lsoft "o#erMH Lsmart "o#erM (N&e.lib. and 2rmitage. L!oft "o#er rests on the s5ills of emotionalS intelligence. 'une )E.umich. combining LsoftM and LhardM "o#erHas the moni5erS for its o#n di"lomac&."ro/&. headed b& the distinguished scholar 'ose"h N&e. human rights.!. @ardt and NegriS ()***1 ha3e argued that #e are alread& some #a& do#n the road to#ard suchS a globali=ed #orld order. 3ision. 4ouis. unilateralismS and disregard for international la# and institutions. Dhile ChA3e= ne3er ado"ted the 2rgentine’sS anti-!emitism and anticommunism. go3ernance b& 4iberal intergo3ernmentalS organi=ations. @o#e3er."dfYhtmlR internationalists. this statement is more reflecti3e S of his #orld3ie# and orientation in foreign "olic&.com.full. >3er time.anti-american pop&list lea'ers Hellinger 11. and ci3il liberties. other leftist intellectuals.!.S diffusing its cultural and "olitical norms throughout the #orld. one that resembles the em"ires of ancient GreeceS and Rome.Fails – Anti-Americanism – .sage"ub. In a letter #elcoming the founding of S the 9nion of !outh 2merican Nations (9N2!9R1 on 2ugust 00."ro/&. N&e and others ha3e "ublished.S ChA3e= #rote. N&e.!. Professor of Political !cience at Debster 9ni3ersit& in !t. )**(J 0?1.lib."dfYhtmlR :ene=uelan di"lomac& under ChA3e= does not mince #ords in describing S Dashington’s goals for 4atin 2merica (see Ministerio Po"ular "ara la Comunicaci. including Noam Choms5&S (#ho is often Buoted b& ChA3e=1. ChA3e=’sS 3ie#s #ere also influenced b& the arguments of the 2rgentine nationalist S Peronist Norberto Ceresole (0???1. so3ereignt&S and democrac& of our continent and im"osing the restoration of im"erial S domination u"on all as"ects of our societies. Consider the choicesS confronting the region’s leadersJ !hould the& "ut the em"hasis on lin5ingS their economies in a trade bloc5 led b& the 9nited !tates. #here he also directs the International Relations Program(Caniel @ellinger.S %he theor& of smart "o#er can be 3ie#ed as an attem"t to reconcile "romotionS of globali=ation #ith the realit& that the Lghost of Dest"halia M (Kegle&S and Ra&mond.1. Curing the "residential cam"aign N&e told theS @uffington Post (('une 0).S N&e.+. unilateralismS is the greatest threat to #orld "eace and to the e/ercise of so3ereignt&S in 4atin 2merica. )**?.

Dhat is ne# about foreign "olic& thin5ing in the ChA3e=S regime is its identification of the 9nited !tates as the main threat to :ene=uela. S It is dri3en b& a "rofound de"arture e in its leader’s strategic anal&sis of the S international order. @arold %rin5unas ()*0*J 0(1S summari=es ChA3e=’s shift from :ene=uela’s "ast foreign "olic& as follo#sJS :ene=uela’s foreign "olic& is re3olu tionar& not for its methods but for its obFecti3es. . . . . S and of 9. hegemon& as a threat to the international communit& that should beS contained b& the de3elo"ment of alternati3e "oles of global "o#er.!.Iran’sS Mahmoud 2hmadineFad and 4ib&a’s Muammar Kaddafi can be e/"lained in S "art b& the #a& Ceresole sha"ed his #orld3ie#.

9nli5e our "ast beha3ior in 4atin 2merica.!. not belligerentN honest. >"en communication. action #ill hel" to re"air relations #ith those #ho should be our natural allies. De need a strategic "atience to achie3e the long-term in3estment in our regional "artners.usni. but the economic motor that dri3es the global econom& and 9.org-maga=ines-"roceedings-)**?*I-our-#aning-influence-south. Ma& )**?.Fails – Delay +ric. >ur interference in the internal "olitics and so3ereign issues of 4atin 2merican countries has left a resentment and sus"icion of our acti3ities. honest&. China. Na3&. $%he solution is not to be found in some slic5 cam"aign or b& tr&ing to out-"ro"agandi=e Z2merican o""onentsR. and a#areness of sus"icions about 9. not h&"ocritical. Counter-drug efforts are barel& maintaining status Buo. "olicies.!. htt"J--###. Foreign "o#ers li5e :ene=uela. 1&ietly an' p&t 'o#n o&r !ig stic. gra'&ally restores cre'i!ility in t e region )aterson/ 0 (Commander Pat. 7ut the remed& for long-damaged relations #ill not be Buic5. 9. hegemon& has left behind. coo"eration #ith 4atin 2merica is in bad sha"e.!. 4eftist go3ernments are "roliferatingHand are o""osed to 9. and Iran are filling the 3acuum that 9.2 . "olic& in the area should be humble. – 1NC Anti-American sentiment 'ooms any attempt to restore egemony in Latin America no# --. Issue I. %ashma1 De are still res"ected as the #orld8s most "o#erful militar&. not unilateralN com"assionate. L>ur Daning Influence to the !outh. no# is t e time to spea.!. not boastfulN multilateral. 7ra=il. !ecretar& of Cefense Robert Gates understands the long-term effort necessar&. :olume 0EI. not arrogantN modest.stepping !ac.$ 00 For no#. >ur unilateralism in IraB and 2fghanistan has alienated #hat fe# friends #e had to the south. %he Free %rade of the 2mericas has basicall& colla"sed.M Proceedings Maga=ine. %his #ill also hel" to a3oid further damage b& those hostile to us.$ he sa&s. 9. $but through a stead& accumulation of actions and results that build trust and credibilit& o3er time.!.!.

.

2s the balance of "o#er in the region is redistributed. Dashington8s closest all& in !outh 2merica.E (Ma&-'une )*001J "XE. Issue I. 2lthough the :ene=uelan go3ernment had also made an e/tradition reBuest for crimes Ma5led allegedl& committed in :ene=uela.!. %he region has entered into an era of un"recedented economic. not onl& ran5s among the #orld8s "oorest countriesN it also has one of the highest homicide rates in the #orld.!. and force to ad3ance 9.!. Ironicall&. LPost-2merican @emis"hereJ Po#er and Politics in an 2utonomous 4atin 2merica.!. Colombia. !ome 9.!. ?*. !ometimes these efforts #or5ed. L>ur Daning Influence to the !outh.?PgQsentO01--@24 >n 2ugust 0X. 4atin 2merica8s emerging democratic consensus seems ine3itable . attracting foreign in3estment #ith an econom& that gre# (. and the& made a formal e/tradition reBuest to tr& him in Ne# Gor5. ma5ing Colombia one of the #orld8s to" reci"ients of 9. 2merican soldiers and di"lomats used "ersuasion. !o it came as a sur"rise #hen Colombian President 'uan Manuel !antos announced in No3ember that he had "romised :ene=uelan President @ugo Cha3e= that Ma5led #ould be e/tradited to :ene=uela. #hen the 9nited !tates started fle/ing its emerging economic and militar& might in Central 2merica and the Caribbean. but often the& did notN both the 7a& of Pigs o"eration in 0?+0 and 9.usni. Nonetheless.!.org-@>4-Page6handleOhein. #hen it in3aded Grenada in 0?XE and Panama in 0?X?. %ashma1 Cecades of foreign-"olic& h&"ocris& and economic double standards ha3e resulted in a "er3asi3e resistance to and sus"icion of 9.M Foreign 2ffairs. senior 9. and di"lomatic success . in3ol3ement #ould be an inherentl& "ositi3e de3elo"ment. une/"ected alliances and enmities could arise. Dashington sought to stem the threat of !o3iet and Cuban communism. officials accused him of shi""ing ten tons of cocaine a month to the 9nited !tates. for e/am"le. the region #ill be more directl& res"onsible for its o#n successes and failures.!. Man& obser3ers ha3e assumed that less 9. *2(2 egemony in Latin America is &ns&staina!le an' 'oome' – litany of factors )aterson/ 0 (Commander Pat. @aiti. narcotics traffic5ing has reached . 7ra=il has emerged as an economic "o#erhouse. :olume 0EI. and !o3iet "ro/ies.controlled global s&stem.!. 4atin 2merica has &et to reali=e its full collecti3e di"lomatic and "olitical ca"acit&. go3ernment still "ro3ides Colombia #ith u"#ard of [I** million annuall& in de3elo"ment and securit& assistance. aid. 4atin 2merican leaders are eager to ad3ertise their recent gains.*ns&staina!le – 1NC *( infl&ence in Latin America is 'eclining no# Crandall 00 W 2ssociate Professor of International Politics at Ca3idson College and the author of %he 9nited !tates and 4atin 2merica 2fter the Cold Dar. as #hen it "ro3ided co3ert funding to undermine Chilean President !al3ador 2llende8s leftist go3ernment in the 0?(*s. Guatemala. No one should underestimate the ca"acit& of the :ene=uela-led bloc of Buasiauthoritarian leftist go3ernments to sto" the regional trend to#ard greater o"enness and democrac&--3alues that the bloc sees as re"resenting a ca"itulation to the 9. It must demonstrate an abilit& to Buietl& engage and lead #hen a""ro"riate--an a""roach that its strategic "osture finall& matures. allies are e3en reconsidering their belief in the "rimac& of relations #ith the 9nited !tates.!. a "roduct of its o#n ad3ancements. but that ma& be too o"timistic. htt"J--###.!. Ce"artment of Cefense in )**? and Cirector for 2ndean 2ffairs at the National !ecurit& Council in )*0*-00 (Russell. Gi3en %he era of 9. and the Cominican Re"ublic. the 9nited !tates must ada"t to the ne# realities of this "ost-hegemonic era. and the region8s di"lomats are more 3isible and confident in global forums than e3er before. di"lomats #ere confident that the Colombian go3ernment #ould add him to the list of hundreds of sus"ects it had alread& turned o3er to 9. and indirectl&. as in Chile and Grenada. a""arentl&. Curing the Cold Dar. a""eared to be un3eiling a ne# strategic calculus. illicit traffic5ing net#or5s--still e/ist. coercion. acting directl&.+ "ercent. 2fter decades on the recei3ing end of lectures from Dashington and 7russels. Fudicial authorities in recent &ears. Dhat made the decision all the more une/"ected is that the 9. htt"J--heinonline. #ith +. In the Fungles and mountains of Nicaragua.org-maga=ines-"roceedings-)**?*I-our-#aning-influence-south.Fournals-fora?*Pdi3O. this "roFect #ill be harder than it sounds. not the 9nited !tates. a lac5 of la# and order.!. to ta5e Fust one e/am"le.$ 2lthough star "erformers such as 7ra=il and Chile ha3e recentl& surged ahead. @e #as Princi"al Cirector for the Destern @emis"here at the 9. 2cross the region in recent &ears. 4atin 2merica8s o#n ca"abilities ha3e gro#n. and as 4atin 2merica8s master. )*0*.!.!. hegemon& in 4atin 2merica began o3er a centur& ago.!. (Region#ide. in3ol3ement in 4atin 2merica. a :ene=uelan drug traffic5er named Dalid Ma5led #as arrested in Colombia. could undermine its "ast "rogress.I "ercent last &ear. 9. %he animosit& manifests itself in #a&s that are direct threats to our national securit&J 9. a conflict that turned 4atin 2merica into a battleground bet#een 9. Much of this has to do #ith the end of the Cold Dar . Na3&. a3erage GCP gro#th last &ear #as I. FR>M @EGEM>NG %> 29%>N>MG #ill allo# Dashington to remain acti3el& in3ol3ed in the region8s affairs #ithout acting as though it is tr&ing to maintain its legac& of hegemon&.1 Regular free elections and 3ibrant ci3il societies are no# common"lace in 4atin 2merica. Most 3isibl&. arrogantl& issuing ultimatums that made it e3en harder to get #hat it #anted in 4atin 2merica. "olitical and economic interests. 9. lest it see its influence diminish e3en further. the 9nited !tates has seen its influence decline. 4atin 2merica8s entr& into a $"ost-hegemonic$ era. efforts to o3erthro# b& "ro/& the !andinista regime in Nicaragua in the 0?X*s #ere outright failures. Dashington has also made a series of mista5es in the &ears since then. di"lomats ha3e been e/"elled. one that ga3e less #eight to its relationshi" #ith Dashington. 4atin 2merican countries are increasingl& loo5ing for solutions among themsel3es. moreo3er. [I** million Fust does not bu& #hat it used to.!. threatening to derail its hard-earned successes. 2t the same time as 9.!. influence has diminished. forming their o#n regional organi=ations that e/clude the 9nited !tates and see5ing friends and o""ortunities outside of Dashington8s orbit. %he "roblems that ha3e "lagued the region in the "ast--income ineBualit&. For the 9nited !tates in 4atin 2merica toda&.!. !antos has been 5no#n to tell 3isiting foreign counter"arts that this #ill be $4atin 2merica8s centur&. "olitical. Ma& )**?. 4ong ho# accustomed the 9nited !tates is to dominating the region.M Proceedings Maga=ine.*** "eo"le murdered each &ear in a "o"ulation of onl& 0E million.

in3ol3ement in the region. In recent &ears. and the !elf-Cefense Forces of Colombia Z2uto Cefensas de ColombiaR mo3e freel& through :ene=uela. I :ene=uela also "resents a threat to other regional countries that o""ose Cha3e= or su""ort us. In the El !al3adoran ci3il #ar bet#een 0?(? and 0?X?. !"ain. one of the #ealthiest countries on the continent because of its 3ast oil reser3es. #hich a3erages . %he 9nited !tates mo3ed from "assi3e to acti3e inter3ention #ith the CI2-engineered cou"s of democraticall& elected go3ernments in Guatemala in 0?I. :ene=uela and 7ra=il ha3e con3inced some countries to establish a collecti3e securit& agreement (called the 9nion of !outh 2merican Countries. and our militar& is being ousted from strategicall& im"ortant bases in the region. %he $dirt& #ars$ re3ealed a h&"ocris& in 9.!. "uts at ris5 the 3er& sur3i3al of the human s"ecies. im"erialism . he has been on a [.-led Free %rade of the 2mericas initiati3e .!. "o"ulist-leftist leaders li5e @ugo Cha3e= of :ene=uela.!. +**. %his is as much a bac5lash to the conser3ati3e militar& go3ernments as it is a "ublic cr& for assistance against "o3ert&. President Morales ordered 9. or F2RC1. ma5ing it one of 4atin 2merica8s most 3iolent #ars in modern histor&. !ome of the most im"ortant 9. a E+-&ear ci3il #ar left nearl& )**. the combined death toll for ci3ilians and combatants #as (I.-su""orted right-#ing go3ernments resulted in nearl& .!. :ene=uela8s President Cha3e= follo#ed suit b& eFecting 2mbassador Peter Cudd& later the same da&. our strategic interests there are in Feo"ard&.!. %he 9. Dhile no 9. %he Nicaraguan ci3il #ar (0?I*-(?1 left I*. often at the cost of ci3il liberties and human rights. 9. Fortunatel&. forcing hard-line militar& go3ernments and conser3ati3e forces to cede "o#er. In the 0?X*s in Central 2merica.$ ) 2s a result. a #a3e of democrati=ation has brought liberal and enlightened ideas to the area.$ . the dar5 &ears of mass 3iolence and dictatorial militar& rule in 4atin 2merica a""ear to be o3er. dee"-seated sus"icions of the 9nited !tates hinder modern-da& good#ill efforts. Ma& )**(. Concerned about communist e/"ansion during the 0?(*s and 0?X*s. In 7oli3ia. Curing the "ast four &ears. %hese internal conflicts led to "re3ailing go3ernments8 brutal su""ression of leftist grou"s and ci3ilians caught in the middle. #ith onl& 0E "ercent as "ositi3e. and else#here. !ince )*** .!.!. militar& or intelligence inter3entions. influence in :ene=uela. #e ma& be unable to regain our standing in this 3ital area. . + e *nited (tates is losing access and infl&ence in Latin American and Caribbean nations li.+ billion in debt. !ince the 0??*s. militar& inter3entions ha3e occurred since Grenada in 0?XE ($9rgent Fur&$1 and Panama in 0?X? ($'ust Cause$1. E3o Morales of 7oli3ia. most b& go3ernment death sBuads.* "ercent in 4atin 2merica. E3idence indicates that Cha3e= is in cahoots #ith drug traffic5ers and terrorists. Dith these rich coffers.*** indigenous Guatemalans and farmers #ere 5illed in a four-month "eriod. most "oor indigenous farmers. In Guatemala. E4NR. then-director of National Intelligence. 0 >ne #itness testif&ing before Congress Buantified the "roblems as. National 4iberation 2rm& ZEFercitos de 4iberacion Nacional. unchallenged b& the authorities. :ene=uela is the fifthlargest oil e/"orter in the #orld and has the ninth-largest oil reser3es. >n 0. In 0?X).?*1 left another I*.!. and Chile in 0?(E. referring to former President George D. %he !andinista Re3olution that follo#ed (0?(? . and Rafael Correa of Ecuador ha3e been elected to office.!. and else#here internationall&. X+ "ercent of 4atin 2merican elites rated 9. most Latin Americans ol' strongly negati"e "ie#s of *2(2 policies2 In ]ogb& International8s )**+ "oll. a loud. 4eftist go3ernments no# head 0) of the 0+ !outh and Central 2merican nations (or (I "ercent1. Ecuador has refused to rene# our lease on the airbase at Manta. is emerging as a "o#erful and alarming regional leader at the hands of @ugo Cha3e=.$ E In )**(.!. and [0. Colombian guerrillas such as the F2RC. an 2mnest& International re"ort estimated that o3er 0*.*** deaths .*** 5illed. %his o3erarching anti-2merican sentiment "resents a danger to our national securit& interests.*** dead. in "art. the !tate Ce"artment determined that :ene=uela #as a maFor traffic5er of narcotics to the 9nited !tates and #as friendl& #ith Buasi-terrorist organi=ations li5e the 2rmed Forces of Colombia (Fuer=as 2rmadas de la Re"ublica de Colombia. 'ohn Negro"onte. and #ill continue to tr& to undercut 9. It also demonstrates ho# the leadershi" of these countries #or5s closel& together. Angere' !y 'eca'es of *2(2 economic egemony and militar& unilateralism. billion sho""ing s"ree for #ea"ons in Russia.!. 2t that time. De must ra"idl& ans#er Cha3e= and his "etroleum-fueled anti-9. #ith the e/ce"tion of Cuba. forcing the shutdo#n of a strategicall& 3ital for#ard o"erating location. 7ush as the $Ce3il$ and asserting that $the hegemonic "retension of 9. Cha3e= has been "ro3iding fi3e times more financial assistance to 4atin 2merica than has the 9nited !tatesHand has been gaining influence and "o#er.e ne"er !efore2 9nless #e act Buic5l&. initiati3es in 4atin 2merica ha3e been recentl& bloc5ed or re"laced. said that President Cha3e= #as $among the most stridentl& anti-2merican leaders an&#here in the #orld. %he& rose to "o#er. causes c<l\bres for those #ho toda& o""ose 9. an attem"t to establish a hemis"here-#ide economic-coo"eration =one.**. 9sing its oil #ealth to moderni=e and e/"and its militar&. or 9N2!9R1 that #ould e/clude the 9nited !tates.***. 4atin 2merica has endured almost 0** 9.!. on a #a3e of anti2mericanism.*** dead. in the rest of 4atin 2merica. charismatic leader #ho has re#ritten the constitution to allo# himself to sta& in "o#er. %he )**+ International Narcotics Control !trateg& Re"ort statedJ Ram"ant corru"tion and a #ea5 Fudicial s&stem are the main reasons for the "rominent role :ene=uela is no# "la&ing as a 5e& transit "oint for drugs lea3ing Colombia for the 9nited !tates. foreign "olic&J "ublicl& #e "romoted democrac& and indi3idual freedoms #hile "ri3atel& "ro3iding su""ort for abusi3e dictators. histor&N ne3er before ha3e t#o ambassadors been e/"elled from their assignments simultaneousl&. 2mbassador Phili" Goldberg to lea3e the countr& in !e"tember )**X. the 9nited !tates su""orted a number of autocrats and militar& Funtas fighting against insurgents.*** homeless.!. a com"lete shift from Fust )* &ears ago. 2ll 4atin 2merican countries toda& ha3e democratic "rocesses. $De83e ne3er seen numbers this lo#. "rogressi3e and "o"ulist "olicies ha3e ta5en root in the region. (I "ercent #ere led b& right-#ing go3ernments. %his mar5s a first in 9. rhetoric. Caniel >rtega of Nicaragua.record heights. !ince 0X**. :ene=uela. . in this case against our interests. :ene=uela has been tr&ing to bu& state-of-the-art fighter . Cha3e= has been 3ehementl& critical. has been stalled b& resistance from :ene=uela and others. relations in the area as negati3e.

aircraft, attac5 helico"ters, and submarines, !trong 9,!, allies li5e Colombia are rightfull& #orried, %he Colombian go3ernment #atched as Cha3e= first aligned himself #ith the F2RC (a grou" tr&ing to to""le the Colombian go3ernment1 and then mobili=ed :ene=uelan troo"s on the Colombian border follo#ing a March )**X dis"ute #ith Ecuador, %he gro#ing resentment of

the 9nited !tates is reflected in ne# challenges for the #ar on drugs, 2 congressional re"ort in >ctober )**X re3ealed that des"ite a [+ billion effort designed to reduce 4atin 2merican cocaine culti3ation and distribution b& I* "ercent o3er the "ast si/ &ears, #e ha3e not stemmed the influ/ of drugs,
Ces"ite 9,!,-led militar& successes against leftist insurgents in Colombia that ha3e decimated the to" F2RC leadershi" and reduced the number of guerillas b& I* "ercent, coca culti3ation has s5&roc5eted b& )( "ercent, Crug c=ar 'ohn Dalsh of the >ffice of National Crug Control Polic& said that the traffic5ing has increased b& as much as .* "ercent, No longer rece"ti3e to Dashington8s reBuests for coo"eration, countries that are the most o""osed to our "olicies are also the

source of man& of the narcotics, 2ir traffic5ing of cocaine from :ene=uela has increased .** "ercent in the "ast three &ears,
In !e"tember )**X, the 9,!, %reasur& announced sanctions against t#o of the heads of :ene=uelan intelligence agencies for their role in traffic5ing, 9"on entering office in 7oli3ia in )**+, former coca gro#er President E3o Morales nearl& doubled the amount of authori=ed land a3ailable for its culti3ation, 2ccording to 9N figures, 7oli3ia coca culti3ation has risen I "ercent since )***, In No3ember )**X, Morales e/"elled 9,!, drug-enforcement agents #or5ing in the countr&, In Ecuador, the forced closure of the 9,!, airbase denies us an im"ortant airfield from #hich to "atrol the eastern Pacific >cean, a transit =one for nearl& (* "ercent of the cocaine that reaches the 9nited !tates, Coast Guard Rear 2dmiral 'ose"h Nimmich, head of the interagenc& counterdrug headBuarters in Ke& Dest, Florida, ac5no#ledged the sco"e of the challenge his grou" faces, $De8re luc5& #e get I "ercent,$ he said, referring to the amount of drugs interce"ted, + %his gro#ing "roblem has al#a&s re"resented a national securit& threat, but ne3er more so than no#, Colombian traffic5ers ha3e used their "rofits to create a ne# and dangerous 3essel, In the "ast, drugs #ere trans"orted on fishing 3essels and s"eedboats, both susce"tible to 9,!, Na3& and Coast Guard search-and-sei=ure efforts, 7ut no# smugglers ha3e begun to use small self-"ro"elled semi-submersibles (!P!!1, In )**X alone, an estimated +* - X* of these craft sailed from Colombia to#ard Central 2merican and Me/ican destinations, Each !P!! carried an a3erage of E - I tons of cocaineN some had a ca"acit& of X - 0* tons of cargo, In a time of "roliferating #ea"ons of mass destruction, the idea of X* to 0** enem& 3essels steaming undetected to#ard the California or Florida coastline re"resents a maFor national securit& threat, %he threat comes from land as #ell as sea, %he flo# of cocaine surging north#ard from !outh 2merican regimes has "ulled Me/ico into an increasingl& dangerous #ar, %he drug-related murder rate there resulted in nearl& I,.** deaths in )**X, more than double the )**( rate of ),I**, Man& 9,!, go3ernment officials #orr& that the conflict has ta5en a turn to#ard so-called Colombiani=ation, In the late 0?X*s and throughout the 0??*s, cartels res"onded to a federal crac5do#n #ith a 3iolent and unlimited #ar against the go3ernment and militar& officials, 7oth the head of the federal "olice and the national drug c=ar #ere recent 3ictims of these cartels, 2n estimated ?* "ercent of the co5e entering the 9nited !tates tra3els through Me/ico, ( %he conflict threatens to s"ill o3er our southern border, More than +* 2mericans ha3e been 5idna""ed or murdered so far, In )**I, 9,!, 2mbassador %on& Gar=a closed the 9,!, consulate in Nue3o 4aredo due to threats against "ersonnel in that border cit&, In >ctober )**X, men #ith rifles and grenades attac5ed the 9,!, consulate in Monterre&, %he "roblems in Me/ico threaten the 3er& e/istence of that countr&, and some strategists ha3e #arned that it could become a failed state, %his #ould be a 3er& #orrisome de3elo"ment in a countr& that shares a 0,(**-mile border #ith us and is our second-biggest trade "artner, 2 Cecember )**X 9,!, 'oint Forces Command re"ort on #orld#ide securt& threats "redicted that Me/ico could e/"erience a $ra"id and sudden colla"se,$ X 7ut #e do not ha3e the resources to "re3ent this from occurring, %he Merida Initiati3e, a [.** million "ac5age "ro3ided in )**X to Me/ico to combat traffic5ing, is onl& a fraction of the estimated [)E billion that Me/ican cartels earn for the drugs flo#ing across our border, 2dditionall&, in )**( the Pentagon reduced funding for anti-drug efforts in Me/ico b& more than +* "ercent, to free u" [X - 0* billion needed monthl& for the #ar in IraB, President 7arac5 >bama8s election offers an o""ortunit& to e/tend an oli3e branch to our southern neighbors, @is election #as #ell recei3ed in 4atin 2mericaN a #orld#ide 77C "oll sho#ed a "reference for >bama to McCain in e3er& single countr& sur3e&ed, b& a four-to-one o3erall margin, E3o Morales seemed to share these ho"es #hen he saidJ $%he entire #orld is ho"ing there #ill be changes, De 7oli3ians #ant to im"ro3e di"lomatic relations,$ ? 7ra=ilian leader President 4ui= 4ula da !il3a echoed the same cautiousl& o"timistic sentiment, %he timing is right, 2ccording to an influential ne# re"ort on emerging global

multilateralism, 9,!, influence is e/"ected to #ane as China and Russia come online, and globali=ation further distributes economic o""ortunities for de3elo"ing nations in 4atin 2merica, 2 ne# 9,!, foreign "olic& focused on the Destern @emis"here ma5es sense, considering our ties here economicall& and
demogra"hicall&, 7& )*I*, more than E* "ercent of our "o"ulation #ill be 4atino, ma5ing it the countr&8s largest minorit&, %hat re"resents a tri"ling of the current @is"anic "o"ulation here, 2lread& #e are the second most "o"ulous !"anish-s"ea5ing countr& in the #orld, after Me/ico,

(e"eral ot er factors 'estroy *2(2 infl&ence in Latin America --a3 + e fail&re of t e I%F Weis!rot/ 14 (Mar5, director of the Centre for Economic and Polic& Research, L4atin 2mericaJ %he End of an Era,M International 'ournal of @ealth !er3ices, :olume E+, Issue ., %ashma1 %he Colla"se of a Cartel >ne reason the historic nature of these changes has not been a""reciated is that Dashington’s most "o#erful influence o3er the region W es"eciall& in the realm of economic "olic& W has ne3er gotten much attention, 2nd that "articular influence has no# Buietl& colla"sed, 9ntil recentl& the International Monetar& Fund (IMF1 headed a "o#erful creditors’ cartel that #as arguabl& more im"ortant than Dashington’s other le3ers of "o#er W including militar&, "ara-militar&, di"lomatic and other Lsoft "o#erM "roFections such as foreign aid and Ldemocrac& "romotionM "rograms, %his cartel #as not a cons"irac& but rather an informal

arrangement W not #ritten into la# or into the charters of the "artici"ating financial institutions W but nonetheless generall& 3er& effecti3e, %he #a& it #or5ed is that the IMF #as the Lgate5ee"erM for most other sources of
credit for de3elo"ing countr& go3ernments, If a go3ernment did not reach an agreement #ith the IMF, it #ould not be eligible for most lending from the Dorld 7an5, regional ban5s such as the im"ortant Inter-2merican Ce3elo"ment 7an5 in this hemis"here, G( go3ernment loans and grants, and sometimes e3en the "ri3ate sector, %he 0X.-member IMF has al#a&s been dominated b& the 9,!, %reasur& Ce"artment, %echnicall&, the other rich countries, including Euro"ean nations and 'a"an, could out3ote the 9nited !tates (3oting is "ro"ortional to a Buota s&stem of contributions #hich gi3es the rich countries a huge maForit&1 but this has 3irtuall& ne3er ha""ened o3er the last +) &ears, Curing the last )I &ears es"eciall&, this creditors’ cartel #as enormousl& influential in sha"ing the LDashington ConsensusM "olicies that #ere ado"ted throughout 4atin 2merica and most other lo# and middle income countries, It e/tended far be&ond Fust the ra# "o#er of using control o3er financial resources to influence "olic&, 2s has been 5no#n for decades, the IMF acting as gate5ee"er and enforcer of Lsound economic "olic&M allo#ed the 9 nited

!tates (and sometimes the other rich countries1 to o"erate through an ostensibl& multilateral, neutral, technocratic institution #hen "ressuring de3elo"ing countr& go3ernments to "ri3ati=e their natural resources or run huge "rimar& sur"luses to "a& off debt, It is much more "oliticall& delicate for 9,!, officials to "ublicl& tell
so3ereign go3ernments #hat to do, 2nd as #e #itnessed in the recent 2rgentine debt restructuring, indi3idual creditors W e3en big ban5s W do not ha3e all that much "o#er against a go3ernment that is #illing to go to the brin5, In a default situation, it is in their indi3idual interest to settle for #hat the& can get, cut their losses, and loo5 to the future, It ta5es an e/ternal enforcer W outside of the mar5et W to hold the threat of future "unishment o3er the offending go3ernment, in the interest of the creditors as a class, %his

arrangement began to brea5 do#n in the #a5e of the 2sian economic crisis of the late 0??*s , after
#hich the middle-income countries of that region "iled u" huge foreign e/change reser3es, %he& had suffered through a terrible and humiliating e/"erience #ith IMF-im"osed conditions during the crisis, and although the "ost-crisis accumulation of reser3es had other causes, it also ensured that the& #ould ne3er ha3e to ta5e the Fund’s ad3ice again, 7ut it #as in 4atin 2merica that

the IMF #as reduced to a shado# of its former self, 2rgentina defaulted on [0** billion of debt at the end of )**0, the largest so3ereign debt default in histor&, %he currenc& and ban5ing s&stem colla"sed, and the econom& #as continuing to shrin5, 2lmost e3er&one assumed that the go3ernment #ould ha3e to reach a ne# agreement #ith the IMF and recei3e an inFection of foreign funds in order to get the econom& gro#ing again, 7ut a &ear #ent b& #ithout an& agreement, and #hen it #as finall& reached there #as no ne# mone&, In fact, the IMF too5 about [. billion net W a huge sum amounting to four "ercent of GCP W out of the
countr& during )**), Get in defiance of the e/"erts, the 2rgentine econom& contracted for onl& three months after the default before beginning to gro#, Four &ears later it is still gro#ing Buite ra"idl&, In fact it has gro#n at the highest rate in the hemis"here, more than ? "ercent annuall& for three &ears, des"ite a continued net drain of mone& out of the countr& to "a& off the official creditors (the IMF, the Dorld 7an5, and the Inter-2merican Ce3elo"ment 7an51 that reached more than [0. billion bet#een )**) and )**I, %he 2rgentine go3ernment under Nestor Kirchner, #ho too5 office in Ma& )**E, also enacted a series of unorthodo/ economic "olicies that #ere strongl& o""osed b& the Fund, including a hard line in bargaining o3er defaulted debt, #hich in3o5ed hostilit& from the international business "ress, along #ith "redictions of "rolonged economic "unishment and stagnation, In one of a number of sho#do#ns #ith the Fund, 2rgentina e3en tem"oraril& defaulted to the IMF itself in !e"tember of )**E W an un"recedented and uncharted mo3e that had "re3iousl& onl& been made b& failed or "ariah states such as Congo or IraB, Cefault to the Fund had hitherto carried the threat of economic isolation, e3en the denial of e/"ort credits necessar& for trade, 7ut the #orld had alread& changed, and the IMF bac5ed do#n, 2rgentina’s long battle #ith the Fund W from the disastrous four &ear de"ression, brought on and e/acerbated b& IMF-bac5ed macroeconomic "olicies, through the standoff of )**), and the econom&’s subseBuent ra"id reco3er& on its o#n W #as the final blo# to not onl& the Fund’s credibilit& as an economic ad3isor, but as an enforcer, @o# much difference does the colla"se of this creditors’ cartel ma5e6 Consider 7oli3ia toda&, #here the leftist, indigenous former leader of the coca gro#ers’ union, E3o Morales, #as elected #ith the 3oters’ largest mandate e3er in Cecember, @e "romised to nationali=e the countr&’s energ& resources --it #as reall& more of a return to constitutionalit&, since the current contracts #ith foreign energ& com"anies #ere not a""ro3ed b& the congress, as reBuired b& the constitution W #hich account for the biggest chun5 of its e/"ort earnings, and to use these resources to increase the li3ing standards of the countr&’s "oor and indigenous maForit&, >n Ma& 0st, Morales announced that the go3ernment #as indeed nationali=ing the gas and oil industr&, and that foreign com"anies #ould ha3e si/ months to renegotiate e/isting contracts, Man& details remain to be #or5ed out, and the situation is com"licated b& the fact that Petrobras, the state-run 7ra=ilian energ& com"an& is the largest gas "roducer, and that 7oli3ia can onl& e/"ort natural gas (#hich is the main energ& e/"ort1 b& "i"eline to 2rgentina and 7ra=il, 7ut the 7oli3ian go3ernment has alread& increased its re3enue from the gas "roducers, from E,. to +,( "ercent of GCP as a result of last &ear’s h&drocarbons la#, %he increase amounts to a share of the econom& com"arable to most of the 9nited !tates’ federal budget deficit, %he Ma& 0st nationali=ation #ill increase these re3enues e3en more, allo#ing the go3ernment to deli3er on some of its "romises to the "oor, %he 7oli3ian go3ernment has since announced its intention to "ursue an ambitious land reform "rogram, #hich has also been met #ith hostilit& from the media, 2ccording to the ministr& of rural de3elo"ment, o3er the ne/t fi3e &ears the go3ernment ho"es to redistribute some I.,*** sBuare miles of land, an area the si=e of Greece, to some ),I million "eo"le W about )X "ercent of the "o"ulation, %he 7ush administration had e/"ressed its dis"leasure #ith the ne# go3ernment a cou"le of times, but until 3er& recentl& has been relati3el& cautious about "ublic statements e3er since the 9,!, 2mbassador’s denunciation of Morales sent the charismatic leader surging in the "olls and almost carried him to 3ictor& in the )**) Presidential election, 7ut on Ma& )), in an ominous ne# turn, President 7ush told the "ress that he #as Lconcerned about the erosion of democrac&M in 7oli3ia and :ene=uela, %here #ill be further frictions in the near future, not least o3er drug "olic&, Dashington has "ursued its coca eradication agenda in 7oli3ia for &ears #ith little regard to its "olitical, economic, or en3ironmental im"act on an increasingl& angr& local "o"ulation, 2n&one #ho has been to 7oli3ia and seen ho# ubiBuitous coca is there, from the coca tea in restaurants to the lea3es that "eo"le che# as a stimulant and to relie3e altitude sic5ness, can onl& imagine #hat it #ould be li5e if "eo"le in 9nited !tates #ere told that the& must co-o"erate in a Lcoffee eradicationM "rogram at the behest of a foreign go3ernment so as to hel" "re3ent foreigners from abusing the "roduct, Most of Morales’ electoral base #ants to 5ic5 the

CE2 (the 9,!, Crug Enforcement 2dministration1 out of the countr& tomorro#, Morales has ta5en a moderate "osition, "ledging to co-o"erate in the fight against cocaine and drug traffic5ing, #hile su""orting the legali=ation of the coca "lant and the de3elo"ment of ne# mar5ets for legal "roducts, %he 7ush administration #ill most li5el& find this unacce"table, 7ut #hat can Dashington do about its ne# L"roblemM go3ernment6 Not all that much, %his is all the more un"recedented because 7oli3ia is not :ene=uela, the #orld’s fifth largest oil e/"orter, nor 2rgentina, #hich until the late 0??*s de"ression had "racticall& the highest li3ing standards south of our border, It is not a giant li5e 7ra=il, #ith a land area as big as the continental 9nited !tates, It is the "oorest countr& in !outh 2merica, #ith nine million "eo"le and an econom& not e3en one-thousandth the si=e of the 9nited !tates’, at current e/change rates, It is "oor and indebted enough to ha3e Bualified for the IMF-Dorld 7an5 @IPC (@ea3il& Indebted Poor Countr&1 debt cancellation initiati3e, and in fact had its IMF and Dorld 7an5 debt W about EI "ercent of the countr&’s total foreign "ublic debt W cancelled this &ear after "assing through the reBuisite gauntlet of conditions for se3eral &ears, 7ut 7oli3ia is a free countr& no#, >n March E0, after t#ent& straight &ears of o"erating continuousl& (e/ce"t for eight months1 under IMF agreements W and a real "er ca"ita income ama=ingl& less than it #as )( &ears ago W 7oli3ia let its last agreement #ith the IMF e/"ire, %he go3ernment decided not to see5 a ne# agreement #ith the Fund, >ne of the first Buestions that arose #as, #hat about mone& from other sources6 7oli3ia recei3es not onl& loans but grants from the go3ernments of high-income countries, and until no# e3en grants from the more liberal Euro"ean countries #ere contingent on 7oli3ia meeting the IMF’s a""ro3al, 7ut it a""ears that this reBuirement has disa""eared along #ith the IMF agreement, %he 7ush administration cut militar& aid W an insignificant [0,+ million W and ma& reduce other aid flo#s related to anti-drug efforts, %he !"anish go3ernment e/"ressed some concern o3er 7oli3ia’s nationali=ation of the gas industr&, since Re"sol GPF, !"ain’s largest oil com"an&, is the second biggest "roducer there, 7ut so far none of the rich countr& go3ernments ha3e tried to use the threat of cutting off loans or grants as a mean of tr&ing to change 7oli3ia’s "olicies, !uch a threat, or e3en an actual aid reduction, #ould almost certainl& not alter the go3ernment’s beha3iorN it #ould therefore be useless and counter-"roducti3e from their "oint of 3ie#, %he fact that #e ha3e arri3ed at such a situation illustrates ho#

dramaticall& hemis"heric relations ha3e changed, 2 fe# &ears ago, a go3ernment li5e that of E3o Morales #ould ha3e had a "rett& short life e/"ectanc&, Dashington #ould ha3e had the abilit& to economicall& strangle the countr&, as it did to @aiti in order to to""le the democraticall& elected go3ernment there Fust t#o &ears ago, %he go3ernment of
@aiti, #hich #as o3er#helmingl& de"endent on foreign aid flo#s, #as cut off from 3irtuall& all international funding from )**0 on, thus assuring its ultimate do#nfall in the 9,!,-bac5ed cou" of March )**., For 3er& "oor countries and es"eciall& those that are #ithout allies or media attention, the old rules ma& still a""l& W although e3en that is beginning to change, 2nd in man& lo#-income countries, for e/am"le in 2frica, maFor economic "olicies are still subFect to IMF a""ro3al, 7ut the Fund has lost its

influence in middle-income countries, and that includes almost all of 4atin 2merica, 2lthough it has recei3ed little
attention in most of the media, the colla"se of the IMF-led creditors’ cartel is b& itself "robabl& the most im"ortant change in the international financial s&stem since the end of the 7retton Doods s&stem of fi/ed e/change rates in 0?(E, %his is es"eciall& true for de3elo"ing countries,

!3 Latin American nations are no longer infl&ence' !y *2(2 t reats 5in6er/ 14 (!te"hen, former Ne# Gor5 %imes re"orter and author, L4atin 2merica is read& to def& the 9! o3er !no#den and other issues,M %he Guardian, +-)I-0E, htt"J--###,guardian,co,u5-commentisfree-)*0E-Fun-)I-ed#ard-sno#den-ecuador-def&united-states, %ashma1 No offense to Iceland, but 4atin 2merica is #here the fugiti3e lea5er Ed#ard !no#den should settle, @e
a""arentl& has the same idea, Ne#s re"orts suggest that he is in Mosco# a#aiting trans"ort to Cuba, :ene=uela, and-or Ecuador, 2 Faceboo5 "ost suggests 7oli3ia ma& ha3e granted !no#den as&lum, Nothing has been heard from Nicaragua, Peru, 7ra=il, or 2rgentina, but an& or all might also #elcome him, 2n& countr& that grants as&lum to !no#den ris5s

retaliation from the 9nited !tates, including di"lomatic isolation and costl& trade sanctions, (e"eral 'on7t seem to care2 %he fact that 4atin 2merica has become the fa3ored refuge for a 9nited !tates citi=en accused of treason and es"ionage is an e&e-"o""ing reminder of ho# full& the continent has emerged from Dashington8s shado#, $4atin 2merica is not gone, and #e #ant to 5ee" it,$ President Richard Ni/on told aides as he #as "ressing the co3ert
o"eration that brought do#n the Chilean go3ernment in 0?(E, 2 decade later, the Reagan administration #as fighting "ro/& #ars in Nicaragua, El !al3ador and Guatemala, In the 0?X*s the 9! 2rm& in3aded t#o Caribbean countries, Grenada and Panama, to de"ose leaders #ho had defied Dashington, Curing the 0??*s the 9nited !tates sought to im"ose the $Dashington

Consensus$ on 4atin 2merican go3ernments, It embodied #hat 4atin 2mericans call $neo-liberal$ "rinci"lesJ budget cuts, "ri3ati=ation, deregulation of business, and incenti3es for foreign com"anies, %his cam"aign s"ar5ed bitter resistance and ultimatel& colla"sed, In s"ite of these militar&, "olitical, and economic assaults W or "erha"s because of them W much of 4atin 2merica has become "rofoundl& dissatisfied #ith the made-in-9!2 model, !ome of the continent8s most "o"ular leaders rose to "o#er b& denouncing the $Dashington Consensus$ and "ledging to "ull their countries out of the 9nited !tates orbit, c3 C ina an' Bra6il a"e !ecome regional egemons 5 anna/ 8 (Parag, senior research fello# in the 2merican !trateg& Program of the Ne# 2merica Foundation, LDa3ing Goodb&e to @egemon&,M Ne# Gor5 %imes, 0-)(-*X,

htt"J--###,n&times,com-)**X-*0-)(-maga=ine-)(#orld-t,html6"age#antedOallPQrO*, %ashma1
%he 7ig %hree d&namic is not Fust some distant contest b& #hich 2merica ensures its abilit& to dictate affairs on the other side of the globe, Globali=ation has brought the geo"olitical mar5et"lace straight to 2merica’s bac5&ard,

ra"idl& eroding the t#o-centuries-old Monroe Coctrine in the "rocess, In truth, 2merica called the shots in 4atin 2merica onl& #hen its southern neighbors lac5ed an& 3ision of their o#n, No# the& ha3e at least t#o non-2merican challengersJ China and ChA3e=, It #as !im;n 7ol 3ar #ho fought ferociousl& for !outh 2merica’s
inde"endence from !"anish rule, and toda& it is the ne#l& renamed 7oli3arian Re"ublic of :ene=uela that has ins"ired an entire continent to bootstra" its #a& into the global balance of "o#er on its o#n terms, @ugo ChA3e=, the countr&’s clo#nish colonel, ma& last for decades to come or ma& die b& the gun, but either #a&, he has

called 2merica’s bluff and #on, changing the rules of North-!outh relations in the Destern hemis"here, @e has emboldened and ban5rolled leftist leaders across the continent, hel"ed 2rgentina and others "a& bac5 and boot out the I,M,F, and s"onsored a continent#ide bartering scheme of oil, cattle, #heat and ci3il ser3ants, reminding e3en those #ho des"ise him that the& can stand u" to the great Northern "o#er, ChA3e= stands not onl& on the ladder
of high oil "rices, @e relies on tacit su""ort from Euro"e and hardheaded intrusion from China, the former still the countr&’s largest in3estor and the latter fe3erishl& re"airing :ene=uela’s dila"idated oil rigs #hile building its o#n refineries, 7ut ChA3e=’s challenge to the 9nited !tates is, in ins"iration, ideological, #hereas the second-#orld shift is reall& structural, E3en #ith ChA3e= still in "o#er, it is 7ra=il that is rea""earing as !outh 2merica’s natural leader, 2longside India and !outh 2frica,

7ra=il has led the charge in global trade negotiations , stic5ing it to the 9,!, on its steel tariffs and to Euro"e on its
agricultural subsidies, Geogra"hicall&, 7ra=il is nearl& as close to Euro"e as to 2merica and is as 5een to build cars and air"lanes for Euro"e as it is to e/"ort so& to the 9,!, Furthermore, 7ra=il, although a lo&al 2merican all& in the cold #ar, #asted little

time before declaring a Lstrategic allianceM #ith China, %heir economies are remar5abl& com"lementar&, #ith 7ra=il shi""ing iron ore, timber, =inc, beef, mil5 and so&beans to China and China in3esting in 7ra=il’s h&droelectric dams, steel mills and shoe factories, 7oth China and 7ra=il’s ambitions ma& soon alter the 3er& geogra"h& of their relations, #ith 7ra=il leading an effort to construct a %rans->ceanic @igh#a& from the 2ma=on through Peru to the Pacific Coast, facilitating access for Chinese shi""ing tan5ers, 4atin 2merica has mostl& been a geo"olitical afterthought o3er the centuries, but in the )0st centur&, all resources #ill be com"eted for, and none are too far a#a&, '3 Ne# organi6ations Wyss/ 11 ('im, L4atin and Caribbean leaders challenge 9! role in regionN !ummitM, %he Miami @erald, 0)-0-00, le/is, %ashma1 >n Frida&, the leaders of EE 4atin 2merican and Caribbean countries are gathering in :ene=uela to forge a ne# organi=ation that #ill include e3er& nation in the region H e/ce"t the 9 nited !tates and Canada, !ome are ho"ing the Communit& of 4atin 2merican and Caribbean !tates, or CE42C, #ill blunt 9,!, influence in the region and re"lace the >rgani=ation of 2merican !tates, the onl& grou" that’s o"ened to all
countries in the hemis"here, %he >2!, #hich "romotes democrac& and de3elo"ment in the region, has been accused b& some nations of being a 9,!, mouth"iece, %he ne# bod& comes to life as 4atin 2merica is fle/ing its muscles on the

#orld stage and the region is e/"ected to see economic gro#th of almost I "ercent this &ear on the bac5 of surging commodit& "rices, It also comes amid hand-#ringing o3er #aning 9,!, influence in the region, :ene=uelan President @ugo ChA3e= H the e3ent’s host and "romoter H has called the CE42C a LhistoricM organi=ation that #ill bring the region closer together as it sha5es off the 9nited !tates’ im"erialist "retensions, %he e3ent culminates !aturda& #ith
the signing of the Caracas Ceclaration that formall& launches the bloc, Chile #ill head the organi=ation in its first &ear, follo#ed b& Cuba in )*0E, %he administration is not #orried that the organi=ation #ill someda& re"lace the >2!, said Can Restre"o, President 7arac5 >bama’s senior ad3isor on 4atin 2merica, L%he notion that &ou can create an organi=ation sim"l& to be anti-2merican is not 3iable o3er a sustained "eriod of time,’’ Restre"o told %he Miami @erald on %hursda&, Ces"ite the flailing 9,!, econom&, it’s still the hemis"here’s "o#erhouse and the "rinci"al destination for most 4atin 2merican e/"orts, including :ene=uela’s, 2nd unless the CE42C recei3es solid financial bac5ing, such as the >2! recei3es from the 9nited !tates, it’s unli5el& to flourish, said Cennis 'ett, the former 9,!, ambassador to Peru and a "rofessor at Penn !tate 9ni3ersit&, L%his organi=ation #ill "robabl& last as long as ChA3e= is #illing to under#rite it,M 'ett said, Land I’m not sure ho# much longer he can do that,M Dhile the CE42C is a regional effort, it’s ChA3e=’s bab&, >riginall& scheduled for 'ul&, the formation of the CE42C #as dela&ed as ChA3e= tra3eled to Cuba to undergo treatment for an undisclosed form of cancer, @e sa&s that he’s cured and has ste""ed u" his "ublic a""earances, but that hasn’t sto""ed re"orts that his condition is far more serious than he lets on, In that sense, the CE42C mar5s ChA3e=’s return to the #orld stage as he e&es a tight "residential race in >ctober, Dhile the full im"act of the organi=ation #on’t be 5no#n for &ears, some #orr& that it could become a tool for go3ernments that ha3e bristled under international criticism, Ecuador President Rafael Correa is "ro"osing the creation of a human rights 3enue #ithin the CE42C that #ould su""lant the >2!’s influential Inter-2merican Commission on @uman Rights, LIt’s not "ossible that 4atin 2merican conflicts ha3e to be dealt #ith in

Dashington, #here the Inter-2merican Commission on @uman Rights is, #hen e3en 9nited !tates doesn’t recogni=e the commission,M he said in a statement, L!ooner rather than later Zthe CE42CR should re"lace the >2!, #hich
has historicall& been distorted,M Dhile it’s true that the 9nited !tates has ignored commission rulings H most notabl& to close the GuantAnamo detention facilit& H the bod& has been a "o#erful 3oice in the hemis"here, %he commission and the >2!’s Inter2merican Court Lha3e been essential in "rotecting human rights and fundamental freedoms in the region,M said 'ose Miguel :i3anco, the director of the 2merica’s di3ision of @uman Rights Datch, Correa’s call for an alternati3e forum comes after he has effecti3el& mu==led dissent at home b& consolidating "o#er and attac5ing the "ress, :i3anco said, %he >2! recentl& held a s"ecial session to loo5 at deteriorating "ress freedoms in Ecuador, LNo# Correa feels li5e it’s time to ta5e it a ste" further and o"enl& "ro"ose to restructure the international mechanisms #e ha3e to "romote and "rotect human rights,M :i3anco said, L%he more serious and democratic go3ernments that are "artici"ating in this meeting should not echo this t&"e of initiati3e,M %he >2! did not res"ond to inter3ie# reBuests, but in a "ress release said it loo5ed for#ard to coo"erating #ith the CE42C, 'ust #hat 5ind of organi=ation the CE42C #ill become remains to be seen, Dhile moderate, free-mar5et nations such as 7ra=il, Chile and Peru ha3e the economic "o#er to ma5e the CE42C 3iable, it’s countries li5e :ene=uela, Ecuador and 7oli3ia that ha3e been some of its biggest bac5ers, LIf &ou loo5 at #ho is reall& "ushing the organi=ation, it’s countries that don’t #ant the 9nited !tates to ha3e an& dominant 5ind of role in the region, but eBuall&, and more im"ortantl&, the& don’t li5e to be critici=ed b& international organi=ations,M said !usan Purcell, the director of the Center for @emis"heric Polic& at the 9ni3ersit& of Miami, L%his is a #a& of setting u" an alternati3e #orld #here the& ha3e more control o3er #ho can sa& #hat about them,M %he initiati3e comes as some see signs of #aning 9,!, influence in the region, LDithout a doubt, this has not been a #onderful time for 9,!,-4atin 2merican

relations,M said !all& !helton-Colb&, the former Ce"ut& 2ssistant !ecretar& of !tate for 4atin 2merica, a former ambassador in the Caribbean and a di"lomat in residence at %he 2merican 9ni3ersit&, L %he 9,!, is focused li5e a laser beam on the Middle East, !outh 2sia and China for reasons of national securit&,M e3 9ecor' *2(2 tra'e 'eficits Weis!rot/ 14 (Mar5, director of the Centre for Economic and Polic& Research, L4atin 2mericaJ %he End of an Era,M International 'ournal of @ealth !er3ices, :olume E+, Issue ., %ashma1 %here are t#o other im"ortant economic changes that #ill reinforce 4atin 2merica’s drift a#a& from the 9nited !tates in the coming &ears, >ne is that the 9nited !tates #ill no longer "ro3ide a ra"idl& gro#ing mar5et for the region’s e/"orts, as it has in the "ast, %he reason is that the 9 nited !tates is running a record trade deficit, no# more than + "ercent of GCP, that almost all economists recogni=e must adFust o3er the ne/t decade, %he 9nited !tates does not ha3e to balance its trade, but the deficit must fall to a le3el that allo#s the 9,!, foreign debt to stabili=e , rather than gro#ing at an e/"losi3e rate, If the 9,!, trade
deficit #ere to remain at its current le3el, in 0X &ears the 9,!, foreign debt #ould e/ceed the 3alue of our entire stoc5 mar5et, %his is not going to ha""enN instead, the dollar #ill fall and the deficit #ill be reduced, 7ut one conseBuence of

this adFustment is that the 9,!, mar5et for im"orts, measured in non-dollar currencies, #ill barel& gro# or "ossibl& e3en decline, %his means that 4atin 2merican countries ho"ing to e/"and their e/"orts to the 9,!, in the near future #ill mainl& ha3e to dis"lace other e/"orters, #hich #ill be 3er& difficult, !o the 9nited !tates does not ha3e so much to offer in its "ro"osed bilateral trade agreements, >n the other
hand, it is demanding concessions that are economicall& costl&, as in the areas of "atented medicines, #here Dashington insists on e3en stronger "rotectionism than is afforded b& the Dorld %rade >rgani=ationN and "oliticall& costl&, as in agriculture, #here the demands for o"ening u" to subsidi=ed e/"orts from the 9,!, ha3e s"ar5ed considerable "olitical o""osition in most countries in the region, 2t the same time, Fust as the gro#th of the 9,!, im"ort mar5et #ill be slo#ing to a standstill,

another mar5et to #hich 4atin 2merican countries can e/"ort is e/"ected to gro# b& about [0 trillion Euros o3er the ne/t decadeJ China, %his #ill reinforce the decline in the 9nited !tates’ relati3e economic im"ortance to 4atin 2merica, Perha"s e3en more im"ortantl&, China has the "otential to be an enormous alternati3e source of financing for in3estment in 4atin 2merica, !o far the Chinese ha3e "roceeded relati3el& slo#l&N but the& ha3e discussed "lans for [)* billion #orth of in3estment in 2rgentina, for e/am"le, including maFor in3estments in railroads and infrastructure, %he Chinese go3ernment no# holds more
than [X** billion in foreign e/change reser3es, Most of this mone& is sitting in 9,!, treasur& bonds, #here the go3ernment has lost tens of billions of dollars in the last fe# &ears W both from currenc& changes, as the dollar has fallen against other currencies, and ca"ital losses, as 9,!, long-term rates ha3e risen, %hese trends are li5el& to continue, 9ntil no#, the Chinese ha3e held these bonds as "art of their o3erall economic strateg&, #hich "resumabl& has included 5ee"ing 9,!, long-term rates lo# so as to su""ort the economic reco3er& here (since )**01 and therefore increase demand for their e/"orts, 7ut this strateg& #ill not "ersist indefinitel&, 2s it stands no#, the Chinese could in3est hundreds of billions of dollars in 4atin 2merica, get a =ero return on their in3estment, and still come out ahead as com"ared to their "resent strateg& of holding 9,!, treasuries, In realit& the& #ould most li5el& get a "ositi3e return, %he Chinese are alread& interested and in3esting in energ& and e/tracti3e industries to secure su""lies of these materials for their booming econom&, 7ut as an emerging economic su"er"o#er, the& ma& also come to see it as "art

of their strategic interest to ha3e closer "olitical and economic ties #ith 4atin 2merica, %his #ould be
es"eciall& true if current tensions bet#een the 9nited !tates and China get #orse, but it is li5el& to ha""en in an& case,

along #ith others. It began #ith the election of :ene=uela’s leftist-"o"ulist (and anti-gringo1 President @ugo ChA3e= in 0??X. addressing the "resident. L4atin 2merica 4oo5s East Dhere Coes %his 4ea3e the 9nited !tates6. Further. China’s "resident and Communist Part& leader. In times of great political &p ea"al an' economic &ncertainty/ some !elie"e t e ans#er is socialism2 t#o-da& tri" to China. #ere #or5ing to create La ne# #orld order. 2 )**X Gallu" "oll re3ealed that of 0? countries "olled in 4atin 2merica. #hich hel"s finance long-term "roFects in the region. man& 4atin 2merican countries relate to eastern countries #ho share the same "olitical goals. Professor %in5er-!alas said there has been a shift of mentalit& in 2merica’s southern neighbors.M . cites Miguel %in5er-!alas. before meeting #ith @u 'intao.f3 Er&ption of socialism 9+/ 0 (%he Real %ruth. #ith the Chinese becoming more acti3e’M (%he Ne# Gor5 %imes1. all but Me/ico "rimaril& consider themsel3es socialists. Mr. President @ugo ChA3e= stated that :ene=uela is rel&ing on China to get them through this economic crisis. L%he region has undergone a "olitical transformation be&ond 9! control that #as unimaginable a generation ago. ChA3e= said.html. 4ater. L^%his is ho# the balance of "o#er shifts Buietl& during times of crisis.-**. LNo one can be ignorant that the center of gra3it& of the #orld has mo3ed to 7eiFing M (2ssociated Press1.-americas. China and Russia ha3e strongl& ad3ocated for increased reform of the international economic s&stem and regulation of financial mar5ets.M I-0*-*?. ^%he loans are an e/am"le of the chec5boo5 "o#er in the #orld mo3ing to ne# "laces. a former Commerce Ce"artment official in the Clinton administration. Curing his recent %his realignment is at the e/"ense of ca"italism. he said. and cites Ca3id Roth5o"f. ChA3e= said the t#o countries. %ashma1 !earching for 4i5e-minded Partners In addition to increasing economic ties. rather than ca"italists. China confirmed its "osition in 'anuar& as a member of the Inter-2merican Ce3elo"ment 7an5. htt"J--realtruth. China is the biggest motor dri3ing the #orld amidst this crisis of international ca"italism . #ith man& nations and their leaders clamoring for a more stable economic s&stem and form of go3ernance. "rofessor of 4atin 2merican histor& at Pomona College. LCurrentl&. El !al3ador’s first leftist "residentM (Christian !cience Monitor1.M Mr. and has culminated #ith the 3ictor& in March of Mauricio Funes. a former Commerce Ce"artment official in the Clinton administration.org-articles-*?*I*. %his includes the de3elo"ment of a socialist state.’ said Ca3id Roth5o"f.

In the last fi3e &ears. Gutierre= is the latest on a long list of neoliberal 4atin 2merican "oliticians thro#n out of office H in elections. #ith go3ernments in :ene=uela. 2rgentina. !ince the 0??X election of :ene=uelan President @ugo Cha3e=. in a situation #here old-st&le "olitics #as too discredited to 5ee" control. as embattled Ecuadorian President 4uis Gutierre= #as forced from office b& a Congress faced #ith mass "rotests demanding #ides"read "olitical change. In 7oli3ia. and its tame international financial institutions li5e the Dorld 7an5 and the International Monetar& Fund.*ns&staina!le – Lea'ers ip Ineffecti"e – . has stood u" to the international financial institutions.+_ . manages to a3oid being o3erthro#n before elections are due in )**(. In a statement on 2"ril I. 2lthough elected on an anti-neoliberal "latform. 7ra=il. )**I #as a significant date H not for #hat ha""ened.$ %his increased "o3ert& has brought #ith it a dee" discrediting of the #hole neoliberal "roFect. bac5ed b& the "oint of a gun and a loan. international editor of Green 4eft Dee5l& and a member of the 2ustralian !ocialist 2lliance national e/ecuti3e. Chile. L4atin 2merica in re3olt J Continent defies 9!2. a Dashington-based thin5-tan5. e/"laining the reason for 4atin 2merica8s #ides"read $"olitical instabilit&$. 7& o"ening u" their economies to $com"etition$ and the $efficienc&$ of mar5et forces. In fact. #hich culminated in an economic colla"se in Cecember )**0. the Free %rade 2rea of the 2mericas #as su""osed to be signed. >n that da&.NC *2(2 infl&ence is 'oome' – Latin American nations are finally teaming &p an' reacting to 'eca'es of *2(2 neoli!eralism %&nc. unable to defeat a ragtag bunch of IraBi militias. "etrol and mining interests in 4atin 2merica. 2nd anger against those #ho 5ee" im"lementing the "ain has led to huge mobilisations. des"ite staggering amounts of militar& aid from Dashington. telecommunications. trans"ort.. es"eciall& 9! cor"orations.M . %he failure of the F%22 negotiations #as Fust another indication of ho# on the nose Dashington is in the continent. :ene=uela.ton/ : (!tuart. 2n attem"ted )**) cou" against Cha3e=. In Colombia. %he richest one tenth of the "o"ulation of 4atin 2merica and the Caribbean earn . bac5ed b& the 9!. "ri3atisations and redirecting funds to debt re"a&ment from basic ser3ices as a #a& to "ros"erit&. but for #hat didn8t. :ene=uela8s e/tensi3e oil #ealth is being used to fund ambitious social "rograms to im"ro3e the li3es of the maForit& #ho li3e in "o3ert&. factor& occu"ations and militant mo3ements. %o man&. in an article entitled $!torm clouds o3er 4atin 2merica$ "ublished in the Cecember )**) Focus on %rade. Comesticall&. %ashma1 For o3er t#o decades the 9! has forced neoliberalism H and its accom"an&ing "o3ert& and des"air H do#n %hird Dorld throats in order to ma5e the #orld better for 9! business. a "art of the organisation of #or5ing . 9rugua& has the least economic dis"arit& of 4atin 2merican and Caribbean countries. In 2rgentina. >ne of the most significant gains has been the mass literac& "rogram. "ointed out that both the 9! and the IMF ha3e not a""lied their usual "ressure on 2rgentina to adhere to strict debt re"a&ments H no doubt recognising that an& go3ernment that attem"ted to continue #ith the same "olicies as before the )**0 u"rising #ould not last 3er& long. he has managed to renegotiate 2rgentina8s cri""ling foreign debt do#n. #rote that. #hich in turn ha3e forced man& go3ernments to retreat on neoliberal "olic& in order to maintain control. Robinson. 7et#een 0??* and )**) multinational cor"orations acBuired .. 2 more dramatic indication came on 2"ril )0. In 7ra=il. "ushed $free trade$ . go3ernments ha3e been elected on anti-neoliberal "latforms in the last se3en &ears. e3en if President Carlos Mesa. Resistance8s !tuart Munc5ton loo5s at the continent that mig t 'efeat *ncle (am2 'anuar& 0. or b& "o"ular re3olt. the s"reading 9! economic em"ire. 4atin 2merican countries #ere "romised significant economic gro#th that #ould reduce "o3ert&. 2s &et another neoliberal. des"ite emerging from one of the traditional "arties of go3ernment.. the number of "eo"le li3ing in "o3ert& increased from one to 0. after more than a &ear of crisis. million. %he F%22 #as one of Dashington8s "et "roFects H it #as a maFor ste" in remo3ing barriers against 9! cor"orate "lunder in 4atin 2merica. #as defeated b& mass mobilisation. General 7ant= Craddoc5. u"risings ha3e o3erthro#n go3ernments in Ecuador. street "rotests. the Council for @emis"heric 2ffairs. the most significant brea5through for the "oor maForit& searching for an alternati3e to cor"orate domination has come in :ene=uela.-)(-*I... but the "o"ular mo3ements #ere not strong enough to ta5e "o#er. !ince the 0?X*s.X_ of the total income. he loo5s to be defeated b& radical Mo3ement for !ocialism leader E3o Morales. In a statement to the 9! Congress @ouse 2rmed !er3ice Committee on March I. during #hich the countr& #ent through four "residents in less than a #ee5. @o#e3er. Nestor Kirchner #as elected "resident in )**E. and ra"idl& losing allies in 4atin 2merica. Dilliam I. 2rgentina and 7oli3ia. Gutierre= abandoned his "romises in an attem"t to 5ee" Dashington ha""&. but its uneBual income distribution is still far #orse than the most uneBual countr& in Eastern Euro"e and the industriali=ed countries. Kirchner #as elected #ith Fust o3er )*_ in )**E.*** ban5s. 4eft-#ing forces are considered a serious chance in u"coming "residential elections in Me/ico and Nicaragua. 7ut no#. #hile the "oorest tenth earn onl& 0. Kirchner. "ro-9! go3ernment falls in Latin America. himself first brought to "o#er in an u"surge of "rotest. Dashington. 7oli3ia and 9rugua& refusing to negotiate their "eo"le8s future a#a&. has seemed unassailable. 7ehind this re3olt is a continent that no longer bu&s the m&th of a neoliberal-led dri3e out of "o3ert& and ineBualit&. the go3ernment has challenged 9! im"erialism and its local allies. Ecuador and 9rugua&. Peru. the 9!-bac5ed go3ernment has been unable to destro& a left-#ing insurgenc&. 7ut b& late )**. #hich has succeeded in eradicating illiterac& according to 9nited Nations standards. the em"ire is not loo5ing so strong. the F%22 negotiations had been sus"ended. #hat ha""ened #as a significant increase in the hold o3er the economies of 4atin 2merica b& multinationals. saidJ $%he free mar5et reforms and "ri3atisation of the 0??*s ha3e not deli3ered on the "romise of "ros"erit& for 4atin 2merica. after a decade of neoliberalism in 2rgentina.

%his cam"aign has failed dismall& H not one countr& has Foined the "ublic condemnations. the concessions forced from the 4atin 2merican "eo"le. Dashington’s lac5 of attention to#ard the region is hardl& a no3elt&. #hen. "ro"aganda bombardment and economic terrorism H the Cuban go3ernment led b& Fidel Castro. li5e Cuba. I-)*-00. L2fter 7in 4aden’s Cemise. but because its free education and health care. In )**0. >utraged b& the attac5 on its so3ereignt&.no# t at ot ers on the continent are #atc ing an' learning2 + e #i'esprea' s ift to#ar' leftist go"ernments 'emonstrates all-o&t resistance to *2(2 egemony – Latin American nations are t&rning to ot er nations for s&pport <alencia/ 11 (Robert. 2nd e"ery time people organise to get rid of a 9! collaborator. neoli!eral policy . the >rganisation of 2merican !tates. and to li3e #ith dignit&.!. the increased "ressure on 4atin 2merican go3ernments to ta5e at least some inde"endent stands from Dashington. %hen. C. In Cecember. %his includes t#o significant "roFects H Petrosur and %elesur. :ene=uela is increasingl& seen as "roof that there is an alternati3e to neoliberal miser&. a (**-mile fence across the 9.org-after-bin-ladens-demise-are-u-s-latin-american-relations-at-ba&-again-. borders. the 9! has sought to o3erthro# H at 3arious times b& in3asion. !ince the 0?I? Cuban re3olution. 7ush finall& met to tac5le illegal immigration and o"en their Foint borders. htt"J--###. s"ar5ing criticism from 4atinos both in the 9nited !tates and south of the Rio Grande. successfull& as5ed the Cuban go3ernment to mediate tal5s to resol3e the crisis. s"lit do#n the middle #ith a tied 3ote in the election for a ne# >2! secretar& general. 2re 9. 2nd. :ene=uela has "rioritised trade agreements #ith other 4atin 2merican nations #ith the aim of creating an alternati3e bloc to that "romoted b& the 9!. assassination.!. %he onl& continent#ide %: channel at the moment is CNN In !"anish. from #ithin :ene=uela. as 4atin 2merican affairs #ere s&stematicall& o3erloo5ed. or else stand e/"osed in front of their o#n "eo"le.-Me/ico border #as erected. on 2"ril 00. #hich #ould unite the state-run oil industries of different go3ernments to create an economic #eapon t at can c allenge *( egemony2 %elesur is the :ene=uelan-"romoted 4atin 2merica-#ide %: channel that aims to "ro3ide ne#s from the "ers"ecti3e of the 4atin 2merican "eo"le. yo& . 7ra=il and the ne#l& elected go3ernment in 9rugua& are bac5ing both "roFects. their strength and de3elo"ment 3aries. and Ne# Gor5 Cit&.Z0R %he fence’s creation #as based on the misconce"tion that the terrorists #ho "er"etrated the ?-00 attac5s illegall& crossed 9. Ces"ite numerous attem"ts. rall& or occu"& until there is change. for the most "art.M Council on @emis"heric 2ffairs. %he 9! is far from out for the count in 4atin 2merica. 7ut soon after the !e"tember 00 attac5s in Dashington.!. Dashington has mo3ed this &ear instead to tr& to "ressure other nations in the region to di"lomaticall& isolate :ene=uela. cannot cut economic ties. and not #aiting on "oliticians. and his go3ernment has #or5ed o3ertime to "romote an alternati3e H the 7oli3arian 2lternati3e for the 2mericas (24721. C>@2 Research Fello#.C. Colombia 5idna""ed. #hich has been #aging a decades-long guerrilla #ar against the right-#ing Colombian regime. in a "lot almost certainl& in3ol3ing the 9!. @o#e3er. Dashington has been unable to either o3erthro# or isolate the Cha3e= go3ernment. :ene=uela8s staunch su""ort of re3olutionar& Cuba is hel"ing ease Cuba8s isolation. %he 9! understands that Cuba is a 5e& threatJ not because it has oil or #ea"ons. Dhile mo3ements in se3eral countries are threatening to bloc5ade. sha5en b& the "otential loss of lucrati3e business deals #ith :ene=uela. %he 7ra=ilian agreement includes selling :ene=uela militar& eBui"ment. >ne of the biggest reasons Cha3e=8s 7oli3arian re3olution is a threat to the 9! is because he is see5ing to unite 4atin 2merican countries. former Me/ican President :icente Fo/ and former 2merican President George D. %his has naturall& "ut :ene=uela in Dashington8s target sights. #hich includes all countries in the hemis"here e/ce"t Cuba. Not onl& did no other countr& res"ond. %he #ar on terror arguabl& has become the administration’s main foreign "olic& focus in the last ten &ears. 2s the 9nited !tates’ inter3entions in IraB and 2fghanistan escalated into blood& #ars. #hich im"orts 0I_ of its oil from :ene=uela. the& came as legal residents. economicall& and "oliticall&. at the same time as Dashington is attac5ing #hat it calls :ene=uela8s $arms race$. and demanded other 2merican nations $di"lomaticall& isolate$ :ene=uela.-4atin 2merican Relations 2t 7a& 2gain6. or !eat !ac. denouncing them as the $road to hell$. its #orld class science and research and de3elo"ment H all are li3ing "roof that it is "ossible for %hird Dorld "eo"le to li3e in less than des"erate "o3ert&. from #ithin :ene=uela. 7ra=il and 9rugua&. Cuba "ro3ides an e/am"le of "eo"le ta5ing their destin& into their o#n hands. Perha"s more im"ortantl&.coha. 2rgentina. :ene=uela has signed far-reaching economic agreements #ith 2rgentina. but Colombia. Cha3e= has been the most outs"o5en critic of the F%22. %he 9! "ro3ed unable to "ressure enough nations to #in outright su""ort for the candidate it is bac5ing. %he resulting "o"ularit& of the 7oli3arian re3olution throughout 4atin 2merica has hel"ed "rotect Cha3e= from Dashington8s #rath. and the 9!. Cha3e= has also refused to sign an& fresh agreements #ith the IMF. %he internal o""osition to Cha3e= is no# discredited. %ashma1 >f course. Me/ican foreign minister 4uis Ernesto Cerbe=."eo"le that characterises the countr&8s 7oli3arian re3olution. Cuba is a beacon of ho"e for the masses of 4atin 2merica. Dashington "rom"tl& bac5ed Colombia. %his #illingness to stand u" to Dashington has "ut enormous "ressure on other nations not to mee5l& submit to #hate3er Dashington insists. based on economic coo"eration and integration amongst 4atin 2merican nations. and the su""ort enFo&ed b& the de3elo"ing :ene=uelan re3olution are all signs that the 9! can no longer force its #ill on 4atin 2merica. enabling a continent-#ide fight bac5 against 9! economic t&rann&. )etros&r is a "ro"osed 4atin 2merica-#ide "etroleum com"an&. %he 9! is es"eciall& u"set #ith the "olitical and economic ties :ene=uela maintains #ith socialist Cuba. . #hich reflects the biases and interests of the 9!. a leader of the Re3olutionar& 2rmed Forces of Colombia. In recent months. :ene=uela recalled its ambassador and sus"ended economic ties.

!.chathamhouse. Ecuador. "ublic o"inion "olls sho# that 9. In fact. E3en if se3eral of 4atin 2merica’s numerous leaders on the left fall 3ictim to the current economic crisis. @onduras. onl& to disco3er that it #as too late to con3ince the region’s leaders that the& #ere not being forgotten. a "roFect for "olitical integration (designed to re"lace the >2!1 and a "lan for regional defence. 2s a result a confident national "s&che is being transformed into a nation dri3en b& fear. %his leftist shift consolidated the rise of regional "o#erhouse 7ra=il and the subseBuent creation of 9N2!9R (9nion of !outh 2merican Nations1 and 2472 (the 7oli3arian 2lliance for the 2mericas1. %he Middle East is fragmenting and on the brin5 of e/"losion."df1 !M In 4atin 2merica.formerl& President Carter’s National !ecurit& 2d3isor. #hich had been a creature of the 9nited !tates during the Cold Dar. and China began to #ield increasing influence in 4atin 2merica b& #a& of di"lomac& and infrastructure de3elo"ment. In its "resent garrison-state mentalit&. and es"eciall& #ith the 9nited !tates. and#hen #e act. other international "la&ers li5e Iran. Get #hen confronted b& the "ossibilit& of "ainful but essentiall& s"oradic acts of terrorism. Euro"e is no# increasingl& alienated. >fficial sto5ing of "ublic an/iet& s"a#ned a huge arra& of terror $e/"erts$ conFuring a"ocal&"tic "redictions.%he Ro&al Institute of Internatoinal 2ffairs in the 9nited King5dom ###. %he le3erage enFo&ed "re3iousl& in 4atin 2merica b& the 9!-dominated IMF and Dorld 7an5 has declined.i > (]bignie# 7r=e=ins5i -. counselor and trustee at the Center for !trategic and International !tudies and "rofessor of 2merican foreign "olic& at the !chool of 2d3anced International !tudies ` 'ohns @o"5ins 9ni3ersit& L!econd ChanceM " 0(+-(1 !M %he near-term threat of terrorism does not remotel& a""roach that le3el. the >bama administration faces much more asserti3e go3ernments see5ing a ne# relationshi" #ith the de3elo"ed #orld.org-sites-default-files-"ublic-Research-2mericas-r*)*?usQrole. go3ernments. Russia. 7ush misunderstood the historical moment. %oda&. 7ush made it a "oint to designate himself a $#artime$ "resident. influence b& s#itching to leftist. a balance of-"a&ments sur"lus. most of these countries became 3ociferous o""onents of #hat the& deemed LGan5ee Im"erialism. %his has hel"ed them achie3e an unusuall& "rolonged "eriod of fast gro#th since )**E. for man&. Moreo3er. %he mass media "lunged into a com"etition in "o"ulari=ing almost on a dail& basis their 3arious horror scenarios. #e create our o#n realit&. %hroughout the #orld. *2(2 egemony is !eing re=ecte' in e"ery area of t e #orl'2 Br6e6ins. In see5ing to "ursue a"olic& based on the delusion that $#e are an em"ire no#. are Fointl& committed to designing a ne# de3elo"ment ban5 for 4atin 2merica. self-isolate' from t e #orl'. and in Fust fi3e &ears dangerousl& undermined 2merica8s geo"olitical "osition .4atin 2merican countries such as :ene=uela. 2s Global 4eader III. ser3ed as a main ad3ocate for the o""osition. and economic securit& -. 2merica ris5s becoming a huge gated communit&. or at least left-leaning. has been com"letel& eroded. 4atin 2merican democrac& is becoming "o"ulist and anti-2merican. Russia and China are both more asserti3e and more in ste".)+ %he region’s economic fate is no longer determined b& its geogra"hic "ro/imit& to the 9!J 4atin 2merican economies no# sell their commodities and ser3ices to and recei3e in#ard in3estment from a gro#ing arra& of countries. *( international lea'ers ip as 'iminis e' !eca&se of policies in Latin America . of #hich China is the most im"ortant. George D.M :ene=uelan President @ugo ChA3e=. began to steer a#a& from 9. #hile 9! influence o3er the >rgani=ation of 2merican !tates (>2!1. %he nation8s tradition of ci3il rights and its ca"acit& to "roFect itself #orld#ide as an a""ealing and self-confident democrac& are diminished.Cirector of the Chatham @ouse -. and 7ra=il. In reali=ing its sli""ing stronghold in 4atin 2merica.( Inter-2merican %reat& of Reci"rocal 2ssistance . "olic& is #idel& feare' an' e"en 'espise'. it is highl& unli5el& that their successors #ill #ant to return to the status Buo ante of 9! regional leadershi".!. #ith lo# inflation and. #hich is intended to re"lace the 0?.PhC #ith e/"ertise 9K foreign "olic&. leaders in the region. Lea'ers ip is &ni1&ely lo# in Latin America Ni!lett 0 (Robin Niblett -. 9! foreign "olic&.$ 7ush endangered 2merica. 2sia is turning a#a& and organi=ing itself #hile 'a"an is Buietl& considering ho# to ma5e itself more secure. %he #orld of Islam is inflamed b& rising religious "assion and anti-im"erialist nationalisms. an unrelenting critic of 7ush’s "olicies. from 7ra=il’s 4ula da !il3a to :ene=uela’s @ugo ChA3e=. former President 7ush finall& too5 the time to 3isit se3eral 4atin 2merican countries during the last &ear of his "residenc&.

For the most "art. and economic securit& -.?11 (Russell Crandall W associate "rofessor of International Politics at Ca3ison College -. "o3ert& and global health demand solutions #here leadershi" b& one countr& #ould be counter-"roducti3e. including their abilit& to follo# a 9! lead #here the& might #ant to. Ce"artment of Cefense in )**? and Cirector for 2ndean 2ffairs at the National !ecurit& Council in )*0*-00.Cirector of the Chatham @ouse -.Princi"al Cirector for the Destern @emis"here at the 9. 7ut there is also the indis"utable realit& that the region itself is no# more confident acting on its o#n . Increasingl&. is constraining the remit of national go3ernments across the #orld.PhC #ith e/"ertise 9K foreign "olic&. fed largel& b& the s"read of the internet and satellite communications. the 9nited !tates8 #illingness and abilit& to e/ert control in the region ha3e 'iminis e'2 %his has occurred in "art because more im"ortant issues.!. gi3en the end of e/ternal and local communist challenges and the shift to an increasingl& multilateral #orld that had room for ne# "o#ers.%he Ro&al Institute of Internatoinal 2ffairs in the 9nited King5dom ###. calling into Buestion one of the lodestars of 2merica’s international leadershi". the ne# global challenges to international securit& in areas ranging from climate change and energ& securit& to terrorism. 2 global "olitical a#a5ening. 9etrenc ing in Latin America no# Cran'all . ha3e forced 4atin 2merica do#n the "olic&ma5ing food chain . this #as ine3itable. For e/am"leJ %he chaos of the 9! financial colla"se has gi3en credibilit& to those #ho ha3e long critici=ed the ^Dashington Consensus’ and its em"hasis on deregulation and mar5et liberalism as a model for national economic reform. Ma&-'une. 2merica’s "osition of "o#er relati3e to other 5e& international actors such as China and the Euro"ean 9nion is changing. as their leaders see5 to define for themsel3es the "arameters of future international coo"eration. Ne# regional institutions that e/clude the 9nited !tates are on the rise from !outheast 2sia to 4atin 2merica and cannot no# be ignored.Ni!lett 0 (Robin Niblett -. Foreign 2ffairs. L%he Post2merican @emis"here !ubtitleJ Po#er and Politics in an 2utonomous 4atin 2mericaM. 4e/is1 !M Get o3er the "ast decade or so. the 9nited !tates has become directl& entangled in the instabilit& of the Middle East.chathamhouse. %his is constraining its room for di"lomatic leadershi" in the region. It #ill be difficult to reassert 9! leadershi" on international financial and economic issues in this conte/t. %he s"read of democrac& that 9! go3ernments ha3e cham"ioned in recent decades has stalled and has e3en shifted into re3erse in certain "arts of the #orld. 9! foreign "olic&. rather than ser3ing as an e/ternal contributor to its securit&."df1 !M 7arac5 >bama has ta5en on the 9! "residenc& at a time #hen man& of the "illars of 2merica’s international leadershi" ha3e been #ea5ened. including the #ars in 2fghanistan and IraB. 4atin 2merica8s greater autonom& is both a ca&se an' a res&lt of 'ecrease' *2(2 infl&ence2 . Follo#ing the in3asion of IraB.org-sites-default-files-"ublic-Research-2mericas-r*)*?usQrole.

the [0* billion for 7ra=il’s national oil com"an&. L%he 9. China’s Emergence as a Global %rade Force %he Ne# Gor5 %imes re"orted that in light of a""arent 9. disengagement and increasing economic uncertaint&. #ith delegates from China and Russia ma5ing regular 3isits to these nations to offer economic assistance and increase bilateral trade tal5s .I million barrels a da& of :ene=uelan oil. securing a 3irtual mono"ol& on co""er "roduction in Peru. lend Ecuador at least [0 billion to build a h&droelectric "lant. In the "ast. In a telling statement about #here man& 4atin 2merican heads-of-state "lace blame for the economic situation.? "ercent dro" from the same month last &ear. %ashma1 4oo5ing for Ne# Economic Partners Dee5s before the !ummit of the 2mericas. Caribbean and 4atin 2merican nations are loo5ing east#ard.M I-0*-*?. com"aniesM (4atin 7usiness Chronicle1.!. the "o"ular leader blamed L#hite "eo"le #ith blue e&esM for the current global financial mess.1M In a )**X multibillion-dollar deal. !enior Fello#.* billion in )**X. China’s :ice President ai 'in"ing 3isited Me/ico. @ugo ChA3e= attem"ted to strengthen economic and "olitical ties #ith se3eral 2sian countries b& 3isiting China. %hus far.-**. three 9.M China’s interest in 7ra=il comes on the heels of 7ra=ilian President 4ui= Ignacio 4ula da !il3a’s call for an economic ne# #orld order. is almost as much as the [00.!. In contrast to ra"idl& diminishing trade #ith the 9nited !tates. Me/ico and Central 2merica Program at @ar3ard 9ni3ersit&('ose"h %ulchin.html. 2lthough the 9nited !tates is still 4atin 2merica’s largest trading "artner. China has been negotiating deals to double a de3elo"ment fund in :ene=uela to [0) billion. L!etting the 2gendaJ 2sia and 4atin 2merica in the )0st . %he Caribbean island nation negotiated [0EX million in loan "ac5ages from 7eiFing.!. 2s Dashington struggles to contain its o#n financial troubles. :ice Premier @ui 4iang&u sto""ed in 2rgentina. 7ut not no#. %his transaction sho#s the diminishing influence of the 9nited !tates in its o#n hemis"hereHand China’s gro#ing need for natural resources and the great lengths to #hich it #ill go to get them. delegations seem meager in com"arison. the 9! consumes 0. and President 7arac5 >bama 3isited #ith Me/ican President Feli"e Calder. :ene=uela aims to tri"le its e/"orts to China to one million barrels a da& b& )*0E. 7arbados and the 7ahamas to offer Chinese aid to those nations. #hile agreeing to e/"ort as much as 0**. is no longer the onl& game in to#n. turning China into its "rinci"al financial "artner o3ernight. 2s the Christian !cience Monitor stated. 7loomberg re"orted that Chinese Central 7an5 Go3ernor aiaochuan ]hou said China’s trade #ith 4atin 2merica has gro#n from [0I billion in )**0 to [0. 2 re"ort "ublished b& the International Committee of the Fourth International said that :ene=uela is angling to increase its e/"ort ratio to China. htt"J--realtruth. hea3il& indebted and confronting gro#ing unem"lo&ment.!.M %he Ne# Gor5 %imes re"orted that LFust one of China’s "lanned loans. In Februar&. including militar& de3elo"ment.) billion in all a""ro3ed financing b& the Inter-2merican 7an5 in )**X.!. :isits to the Caribbean and 4atin 2merica b& 9. trade #ith 4atin 2merica fell to [EI. %he deals largel& focus on China loc5ing in natural resources li5e oil for &ears to comeM (%he Ne# Gor5 %imes1. leadersHthe secretar& of state. In addition. E3en 'amaica. :ene=uela and 7ra=il to see5 stronger ties #ith the fi3e countries. attorne& general and head of homeland securit&Hha3e made tri"s to Me/ico. Colombia.E billion in Februar& )**?Ha )X. Ecuador. :ice President 'oe 7iden met #ith leaders in Chile and Costa Rica. 9. (%oda&. @e said this during a meeting #ith 7ritish Prime Minister Gordon 7ro#n. L%he falling trade is mainl& due to #ea5 demand in the 9nited !tates. 7ra=il is e/"ected to use the loan for offshore e/"loration. Iran and 'a"an.-americas.*** barrels of oil a da& to China. L4atin 2merica 4oo5s East Dhere Coes %his 4ea3e the 9nited !tates6. turned to China after failing to secure credit from the 9.!.NC C ina is rapi'ly increasing infl&ence in t e region at t e e@pense of t e *2(2 --statistics an' ne# partners ips pro"e 9+/ 0 (%he Real %ruth. e/"ert in contem"orar& 4atin 2merican studies. according to the oil com"an&. although the leading trade "artners in 4atin 2merica are also bu&ing fe#er "roducts from 9. %he follo#ing #ee5. and re"eated it "ublicl& in #ee5s to come. China offered to "ro3ide the struggling region #ith necessar& financial assistance. China’s Chinalco Cor"oration "urchased the Peru3ian %oromocho Mountain. or 7ritain.n on his #a& to the !ummit of the 2mericas in %rinidad and %obago. LDhile :ene=uela no# e/"orts +* "ercent of its oil to the 9!. this t&"e of deal #ould li5el& ha3e been made #ith an 2merican cor"oration.*ns&staina!le – C ina – . *( as alrea'y a!an'one' Latin America an' C ina as alrea'y fille' in +&lc in 1. LIn recent #ee5s. the agreements bet#een 7eiFing and Caracas could change that. s"eciali=ing in foreign "olic& and com"arati3e urban de3elo"ment.org-articles-*?*I*. 'amaica. "ro3ide 2rgentina #ith access to more than [0* billion in Chinese currenc& and lend 7ra=il’s national oil com"an& [0* billion.!.

#hich 3aries from countr& to S countr&.Centur&M. since ?-00. at least one that can be translated into S collecti3e action or Foint "olic&. S has de3oted most of its attention S to issues tied directl& to domestic concerns. not lender. 'une . the nations of 4atin 2merica ha3e found S it e/tremel& difTcult to Tnd their o#n 3oices to e/"ress their ne# sense of agenc&. #here S a Chinese state-o#ned com"an& sent in uniformed Chinese securit& guards to "rotect the com"an&’s S "ro"ert&. it is 3er& difTcult to demonstrate S an& grou" consensus among the nations in 4atin 2merica . S Part of the "roblem is that in the "ost-Cold Dar "eriod. since the beginning S of the George D. 2nd S &et.miami. %he 2"ril )*0) !ummit of the S 2mericas in Cartagena #as a clear indication of the absence of 9! leadershi" and focus. 4e/isNe/is1 . it is m& S 3ie# that. %hat is the role ChA3e= tried to get China to "la& in :ene=uela. %he "roblem is not S China but rather the lac5 of a clear 9! stance and a #ea5 "olic& debate in 4atin 2merica . e/tracted #ith Chinese labor and "rotected b& Chinese troo"s. !e3eral S scenarios are "ossible going for#ard. L4atin 2merica area for global "o#ers. and Cuba. noted for their loud rhetorical noises against the 9!. 2nother scenario is that 7ra=il #ill ta5e the S lead to get the Comunidad de Estados 4atinoamericanos & CaribeUos (CE42C1 or 9ni. the o"aBue manner in #hich such Chinese enter"rises S o"erate raises sus"icions. a serious debate #ill emerge in 2rgentina as #ell. I #ould focus on the "erce"tion in 4atin 2merican nations. it is difTcult. Con3ersel&. the role it has "la&ed in the 9! for S decades and. If I #ere to #rite a "a"er on S this to"ic. %his alread& has stirred nationalist sentiment in Peru. In fact.cgi6 articleO0***Pconte/tOclasQ"ublicationsR In an effort to ma5e a com"licated subFect as sim"le as "ossible in a short "resentation. creating a serious "olitical "roblem for President Cilma Rouseff. the 9!. In Ecuador. Can #e imagine a Mercosur "olic& on China6 Can Me/ico get the S countries of Central 2merica to Foin a regional res"onse to Chinese trade6 It is also "ossible that a S "olic& based on em"hasis of the rule of la# #ill "ro3ide a frame#or5 for dealing #ith an& e/ternal S inVuence on the region’s domestic "olicies. such as drug trafTc5ing. %he current Pentagon nightmare is of Chinese statecontrolled in3estment S in the lithium de"osits of 7oli3ia. S %hat brings me bac5 to China. setting off alarm bells about a re"eat of e/"eriences in 2frica. China’s role in 4atin 2merica is still ill formed. )*0E. In most e/am"les of direct in3estment. %he e3idence of Chinese S intentions is ambiguous. S 2t this moment. S %he role that concerns the radical declinists and the Pentagon is the soft-s"o5en Chinese role of S lender and in3estor. and "ublic discussion #ill continue S to entertain #ild s"eculations and cons"irac& theories. #hich ma5es an& S collaborati3e effort among them more difTcult. Chinese state-controlled enter"rises S generall& o"erate through third "arties. *( infl&ence in LA is 'eclining no#.th. to imagine a concerted effort to formulate rules concerning S in3estments in natural resources. has lac5ed a clear 3ie# of the role of 4atin 2mericaHeither an& single 4atin 2merican countr& or the grou" of countries o"erating #ithin the frame#or5 of the S >rgani=ation of 2merican !tates (>2!1 or 9NHin the "ost-Cold Dar #orld. #here S there is signiTcant tension bet#een the t#o go3ernments. #hich interests me the most. In Ecuador and :ene=uela. but 3er& little has ha""ened. the Chinese "resence S is considered another form of anti-im"erialism and the rise of China e3idence of 9! decline. It is "la&ing both roles in 7ra=il S at the moment. but not im"ossible. %he Chileans also ha3e ta5en u" the S debate. !uch in3estment "roFects are embedded sociall& in #a&s that do not occur in other S forms of loans or trade s#a"s. E3en trade. there S are clear signs of considerable disagreement among the nations of the region. in Me/ico for the "ast t#ent& &ears. S is handled as an outgro#th of concern for the domestic econom&. the nationalist reaction in the region to Chinese "retensions is much more signiTcant than an& S "ossible 9! res"onse. %he t#o countries S signed agreements #ith great fanfare. #hich could easil& be the focus of regional or collecti3e attention.n de Naciones S !uramericanas (9N2!9R1 to formulate a collecti3e res"onse based on shared 3alues or interests. "g )0N htt"J--scholarl&re"ositor&. of the roles China does or might "la& in the region. 7ush administration. %he most S "rominent is its seemingl& insatiable consum"tion of commodities. >ne is that neither the 9! nor the 4atin 2merica nations #ill S formulate a collecti3e "olic& to deal #ith the ne# "henomenon. and there are signs that if an& of the announced Chinese in3estments in the mining and S energ& sectors actuall& get off the ground. China "la&s se3eral different roles in 4atin 2merica. most "rominentl&. Moreo3er. In conseBuence. %hroughout the 2ndean region.immigration. Dhat are the "olic& res"onses b& 4atin S 2merican nations to China’s ne# "resence6 %he onl& clear ans#er is in the case of 7ra=il. China has become S the lender of last resort and a maFor in3estor. the 9! go3ernment.ca&sing C ina rise of infl&ence Hong!o/ 14 W (!un.edu-cgi-3ie#content. S %his brings me to the third Buestion. For S e/am"le. In addition.M 77C Monitoring 2sia Pacific W Political !u""lied b& 77C Dorld#ide Monitoring. it ser3es as a maFor S in3estor. the strategic frame#or5 used b& the 9! go3ernment has reduced 4atin 2merica S to a =one of relati3e insigniTcance. %he "roblem is not that some countr& is threatening 9! interests S in the hemis"here or using the hemis"here to threaten the 9!N instead. on balance. as if China #ere a large industrial S &a# ta5ing in unimaginable Buantities of 4atin 2merican ra# materials. 2n& argument that 9! hegemon& is in decline assumes S a uni3ocal 4atin 2merican res"onse to that hegemon&. #ith due diligence "erformed b& "ri3ate Trms contracted S to do the #or5. it continues its S more traditional role of e/"orter of chea" manufactured goods. S Neither 7ush nor >bama has been able to focus sufTcientl& on the hemis"here to "roduce a coherent foreign "olic& that satisTes 9! interests in 4atin 2merica and res"onds to the ne#l& S emerging 3oices in the region. #ith almost S no attem"t to Tnd #a&s to tie the hemis"here together or e/"lore increasing regional collaboration. in the mining sector. in dealing #ith the hemis"here.

including China. es"eciall& 7ra=il. 7aosteel. Nonetheless. and 4atin 2merica #ill be achie3ed. and Infrastructures China8s high demand for commodities has dri3en u" the "rice of metals. #hile Russia. E3er& maFor "o#er is s"eculating on the changes inside 4atin 2merica. are also loo5ing to ta5e a share. 7oth China and the 9! are see5ing #a&s to foster a constructi3e mechanism.M 0.7. Com"ared #ith other regions such as the 2sia-Pacific and the Middle East. %ashma1 ). M. 7esides. %here are li5el& to be more maFor ste"s for#ard to tune u" !ino-4atin 2merican coo"eration.!. the #orld8s to" iron ore miner. @o#e3er. a sign that the ne# leadershi" #ill concentrate more on 4atin 2merica8s role and influence in the transforming global "attern. (X 7ut China is not Fust securing oil and commodities from 4atin 2merican countries. Interests. the 9!.C. It is also una3oidable that 4atin 2merica has become an arena for another round of "o#er struggles. !etting u" mechanisms to enhance communication. India and 'a"an. 2lthough frictions ha3e ta5en "lace in !ino-4atin 2merican economic relationshi". the trust deficit is the maFor obstruction that bloc5s both countries to dee"en this coo"eration. %here might be a strong resistance if the 9! #ants to im"ro3e its relationshi" #ith 4atin 2merica. !ummer )**I. (( 4atin 2merica and the Caribbean "ro3ide o3er thirt& "ercent of 9. '. China has become an im"ortant strategic "artner #ith 4atin 2merica in terms of economic e/changes and foreign affairs. China is a maFor im"orter of ra# materials. China8s In3estments in Ke& !ectors in 4atin 2mericaJ >il. 7ut #hether the& can li3e u" to their o#n e/"ectations de"ends on their national strength and future gro#th. MaFor "o#ers are re-e3aluating their interests and readFusting their "olicies in this region to com"ete for influence . candidate at the 9ni3ersit& of Minnesota 4a# !chool. China8s in3estment in 4atin 2merica #ill be enlarged dramaticall&. all three "arties. challenges still remain in those countries8 China "olicies in terms of "olic& coordination and im"lementation. #hich is more than all of the Middle Eastern countries combined. so that trilateral coo"eration among China. 2nd China also needs to learn ho# to better res"ect 4atin 2merica8sinterests.2 at the 9ni3ersit& of Florida. (+ For e/am"le. it is becoming intimatel& in3ol3ed in its e/traction. 7oth traditional "o#ers and emerging economies are loo5ing for le3erage in the region. It reBuires both China and 4atin 2merica to ma5e efforts to guide and design the direction of the bilateral relationshi" . drug dealing and 9! "olicies to#ard Cuba and :ene=uela. Ne3ertheless. its domestic "olic& has bloc5ed the de3elo"ment of its 4atin 2merica "olic&. agricultural "roducts. ha3e to find out feasible areas of coo"eration. '.es 'oing !&siness #it C ina "ery attracti"e to Latin American co&ntries . but the thri3ing relationshi" bet#een China and 4atin 2merica has alread& im"acted the traditional 9!influence o3er this region. the& are aus"icious signals that the relationshi" bet#een China and 4atin 2merica is in a booming de3elo"ment. #hether the& can balance their interests #ith 4atin 2merica8s. but it is uncertain #hether it can establish leadershi" in this region. More im"ortantl&. For China. unli5e the 9 nited !tates. le/is. no matter #hether out of consideration of 4atin 2merica8s resources and mar5et or the need to readFust their foreign "olic&. (. 4atin 2merica is not "i3otal in the change of the international "attern. Global %rade E((. im"orted oil. 7oth China and the 9! ha3e denied an& intention of ri3alr& in 4atin 2merica. "roduced b& "ros"erit&. is considering a Foint 3enture #ith 7ra=il8s Com"anhia :ale de Rio Coce. %hese "roblems. trans"ortation and infrastructure construction. (I + is ma. Minn. %he 9! is tr&ing to regain its influence in 4atin 2merica. %he dominant 9! "osition in this region has started to decline. More im"ortantl&.Ne# Chinese President ai 'in"ing chose 4atin 2merica as "art of the destinations for his second state 3isit. along #ith a more s"ecific and "ractical "olic& aiming to acti3el& balance the different e/"ectations of the interests of both sides. 2nd most 4atin 2merican countries are readFusting their foreign "olicies for a di3erse s&stem of foreign relations. it #ill embrace more o""ortunities than challenges in this area. and more im"ortantl&. 4atin 2merica is becoming more full& engaged #ith international affairs. #ill also be addressed amid such de3elo"ment. LChina8s Economic and Political Clout Gro#s in 4atin 2merica at the E/"ense of 9. 4atin 2merica is no longer constrained to a 9!-dominated Destern hemis"here. and oil. it #ill . (? China8s a""roach has been to sho# 4atin 2merican countries that.!. Commodities. China8s to" steel ma5er. 4atin 2merica has become an una3oidable to"ic if China and the 9! #ant to establish a ne# "attern of relationshi" . the 9! and 4atin 2merica. C ina as !een ramping &p economic infl&ence t ro&g o&t Latin America '&e to ig reso&rce 'eman' <ega/ : ('uan. Mean#hile. 7ra=il is a rising "o#er. negotiation and mutual trust bet#een both countries o3er this region should be a to" "riorit&. such as immigration. a "lentiful commodit& in 4atin 2merica. More challenges than o""ortunities #ill "re3ail in the future relationshi" bet#een the 9! and 4atin 2merica. but is de3elo"ing relationshi"s #ith emerging economies from the rest of the #orld. >b3iousl&. %he challenges are mostl& left o3er b& histor&. left-#ing go3ernments in 4atin 2merica are being challenged o3er the sustainabilit& of their "olicies.

transformation. trade bet#een China and 7ra=il totaled eight billion dollars. "rimaril& in its oil sector. #hich #ill ha3e tremendous bu&ing "o#er. billion in rail#a&s and refineries.$ at #hich Chinese entre"reneurs sought 7ra=ilian "artners in economic sectors such as oil and agriculture. ?* China also has indicated interest in in3esting [ E billion in Ecuador. In )**E. alone. and Chinese President.E. ZbE?*R E. China see5s not onl& bilateral trade agreements but also to become an in3estment "artner. X. X? :ene=uela8s Foreign Minister met #ith the managers of China National Petroleum Cor"oration (CNPC1 in order to establish a strategic alliance o3er the e/"loration. ?I %his coo"eration increases access for 4atin 2merican businesses to the gro#ing Chinese consumer mar5et. @u 'intao. #hich enables both countries to Fointl& begin construction of a rail#a& and allo#s 2rgentina to e/"ort its citrus fruit to China. Dith 2rgentina.treat them as so3ereigns and as "artners. Me/ico held a conference entitled $China8s Influence on Me/ico8s Future. X+ Reali=ing that it must #or5 #ith China because it cannot com"ete against it. 2rgentine President. Chinese Mar5et 2ttracti3eness to 4atin 2merican Countries Eager to obtain ne# customers. 7ra=il. foreign manufacturers and distributors #ant to ta" into all areas of the gro#ing Chinese mar5et. from 'anuar& to 2ugust )**. signed an agreement on 'une )X. X* 7ra=il is China8s largest trading "artner in 4atin 2merica and annual bilateral trade has tri"led since )***. 0** %he trade tri" to China b& 7ra=il8s "resident in Ma& of )**. ma5ing China 7ra=il8s second-largest trading "artner ZbEXXR after the 9nited !tates. ?? 4atin 2merican leaders #elcome an economic "o#er that treats them as true "artners and "ro3ides an attracti3e economic alternati3e to dealing #ith the 9nited !tates. ?( Foreign direct in3estment in China increased nineteen "ercent.. to [ . XX China has agreed to in3est in :ene=uela8s state oil com"an&. Me/ico has decided to increase its e/"loration and "roduction of oil to satisf& China8s demand. "articularl& in the infrastructure and trans"ortation sectors.. including u"grading necessar& infrastructure. Petroleos de :ene=uela (PC:!21. ?+ China is ra"idl& creating the largest middle class in the #orld. and trans"ortation of crude oil. XI %o this end. sometimes forgotten countries. X( In Februar& )**. and other 4atin 2merican countries are entering an era of greater cooperation2 0*) ZbE?0R . it a""ears as though China. Nestor Kirchner. X) China see5s to in3est directl& in 7ra=il8s infrastructure. underscores this "oint. X0 7oth countries recentl& too5 "art in a #or5sho" entitled $7ra=il and China in the )0st Centur&.$ at #hich Me/ico8s ambassador to China ZbEX?R announced that Me/ico #ill increase its oil out"ut to meet China8s demands. China e/"ressed interest in in3esting in the construction of a ne# canal through Central 2merica. President @u 'intao said that China is #illing to de3elo" relations #ith Caribbean countries that #ould be of mutual benefit to 4atin 2merica and China. ?0 China is e3en courting smaller. 0*0 Gi3en China8s needs for the ra# materials that 4atin 2merican countries ha3e and gi3en China8s coo"eration in infrastructure and satellite technolog& de3elo"ment.+ billion. XE #here it has agreed to in3est bet#een [ E billion and [ . ?. ?) %he "ro"osed canal #ould cost [ )* billion and #ould utili=e 4a5e Nicaragua and one ri3er in southeast Nicaragua. )**. ?X China consumes an increasing amount of oil and commodities and it o"ened its agricultural mar5et because it needs to im"ort great Buantities of food. ?E Gu&ana and China enFo& bilateral economic and technical coo"eration.

9&ssia an' Iran are ramping &p infl&ence in t e region --.X billion (I. as ChA3e= sim"l& bu&ing friends in the region.!. ChA3e= has "ro"osed to formali=e this ne# relationshi" b& establishing a L7an5 of the !outh.. 2nd :ene=uela’s lending and aid "rograms. Russian Prime Minister :ladimir Putin met #ith socialist-leaning Chilean President Michelle 7achelet. %here #as a time #hen the 9nited !tates #ould ha3e 3ie#ed . as #ell as numerous other forms of aid. :ene=uela ste""ed in as a re"lacement bu&er. long sought b& Dashington. macroeconomic "olicies.!. but the latter’s commitment #as there as a lender of last resort. L^De are satisfied #ith the de3elo"ment of our relations. :ene=uela has announced a [0** million loan to 7oli3ia and a similar amount to su""ort the "ro"osed land reform. %he result for 7oli3ia is that des"ite its "o3ert& and underde3elo"ment. "romising to ste" u" coo"eration #ith the nation. %ashma1 Russia and Iran 2ssert %hemsel3es It is not Fust China that is ca"itali=ing on o""ortunities in the Destern hemis"here. LFor Russia. trade negotiations (a bilateral trade deal. htt"J--realtruth. border. :ene=uela has more than [E* billion in foreign e/change reser3esN #hate3er 7oli3ia might need #ill be "rett& small relati3e to :ene=uela’s ca"acit& for lending and aid. the im"act of this alternati3e source of financing has alread& had an enormous im"act on the abilit& of go3ernments to ignore "ressures from Dashington. em"ire..M International 'ournal of @ealth !er3ices.. %ashma1 In 4atin 2merica this has coincided #ith a maFor and unantici"ated change that . "ercent of GCP1 at once.’ ZMr.M to finance de3elo"ment in the region. or international lending agencies #ill be more than re"laced b& :ene=uela.. In Fust the last month (Ma&1.M I-0*-*?. the ne# go3ernment #ill not ha3e to #orr& too much about #hether the 9nited !tates a""ro3es of #hat it is doing #ith regard to foreign energ& com"anies. !uch is the "arado/ of the ne# hemis"heric orderJ it is no# e3en easier for a small. $If additional hel" is needed to hel" 2rgentina finall& free itself from the cla#s of the International Monetar& Fund. it must be considered that Russia’s goals ma& not be so economicall& singular. sees it as freeing !outh 2merica from the gri" of the 9.*ns&staina!le – Ne# C allengers – . Russia #as re"orted this month to ha3e signed a contract to sell :ene=uela "ortable airdefence missilesM (%he Economist1.$ ChA3e= announced on Cecember 0I. Fust ?* miles off the 9. 2n& aid cuts from Dashington. Euro"e. Russian and Iranian ties and su""ort for 4atin 2merica ha3e also been gro#ing. Dhen 7oli3ia #as about to lose [0(* million in so&bean e/"orts to Colombia as a result of the latter’s decision in 2"ril to sign a bilateral trade agreement #ith the 9nited !tates. In light of these de3elo"ments. 2 ne# international lender has emergedJ :ene=uela. its Caribbean na3al Faunt is a s&mbolic ri"oste to 2merica’s "lan to "lace missile batteries in Poland and to its dis"atch of na3al 3essels to distribute aid in Georgia after Russia’s incursion in 2ugust. Russian #arshi"s doc5ed on Cuban shores . middle income countries to do so W although the choices for all ha3e been greatl& e/"anded.NC <ene6&ela is gaining regional egemonic stat&s – cro#'s o&t *2(2 infl&ence Weis!rot/ 14 (Mar5. "oor countr& to reFect Lthe Dashington ConsensusM than it is for larger.$ he said. 7ut regardless of ho# it is seen in ideological terms. and offered to start it off #ith a [I billion contribution. :ene=uela is also "ro3iding discounted oil financing for the Caribbean countries under its PetroCaribe "rogram.-americas. Kirchner’s statement announcing the decision #as e3en harsherJ $Zthe IMF hasR acted to#ards our countr& as a "romoter and a 3ehicle of "olicies that caused "o3ert& and "ain among the 2rgentine "eo"le. it turned out that Ecuador had sufficient demand for its bonds that it onl& needed to sell [)I million to :ene=uela. or.html. including regular contacts and trends in trade and economic relations. is no# "rett& much dead1. 2rgentina can count on us. or drug "olic&. :olume E+. director of the Centre for Economic and Polic& Research. It is necessar& to thin5 about di3ersification’M (Itar-%ass1.R Putin said. %his ma5es all the difference in the #orld. Issue . 4ast month. Mr ChA3e= has alread& bought arms #orth [. 4ast &ear :ene=uela also committed to bu&ing [E** million of Ecuador’s bondsN in Cecember. %he same goes for its recent re3i3al of ties #ith Cubac7ut Mr Med3ede3’s main "ur"ose in 4atin 2merica is business. for the first time since the end of the Cold Dar. L4atin 2merica 4oo5s East Dhere Coes %his 4ea3e the 9nited !tates6. combined #ith the IMF’s loss of influence. has hel"ed usher in the ne# era of inde"endence. :ene=uela committed [). %his trend is li5el& to continue unless there is a sudden and 3er& se3ere colla"se of oil "rices. #ho has named his re3olution after the 0Xth centur& liberator !imon 7oli3ar. unli5e that of the international financial institutions or the G-( go3ernments. do not ha3e economic "olic& conditions attached to them. Dhen 2rgentina decided last Cecember to sa& its final goodb&e to the IMF b& "a&ing off its remaining debt of [?.*** rifles a &ear in )*0*. ^Get bilateral trade is rather modest so far. t ese disbursements and initiati"es are either as "art of an attempt to !&il' an Aanti-AmericanB a@is . L4atin 2mericaJ %he End of an Era. ChA3e= himself.-**.itCs 6ero-s&m #it *2(2 infl&ence 9+/ 0 (%he Real %ruth.org-articles-*?*I*. billion from RussiaHincluding a Kalashni5o3 factor& due to start "roducing I*. :ie#ed through the Cold Dar lens of official Dashington and the foreign "olic& establishment.I billion to the cause. In the meantime.

and Russia .no respect Llana/ 1. 82 l&nch"in8 in the region %hat 5ind of defiance . and thus undermining 2merican leadershi" in the #estern hemis"here. Recentl&.this #ith heightened alarm. It8s because he has mone& to "a& for it. 9! influence in hemis"here #aningN In3estment from emerging economies li5e China and Russia are diminishing 4atin 2merica8s reliance on the 9nited !tates. o3er the "ast decade 4atin 2merican democrac& has flourished and the global econom& shifted.. Indeed. toda& it is in5ing energ& deals and selling arms in 4atin 2merica because it finds #illing "artners and "urchasers there. %his #ee5 mar5s the I*th anni3ersar& of the beginning of the tense standoff. Mr. a historian of the missile crisis at 2merican 9ni3ersit&.. >ctober 0.#ould ha3e been unthin5able I* &ears ago.sho#ing res"ect for a nation that for so long the 9! has considered a thorn in its side . #ith 4atin 2merica no longer loo5ing Fust north to the 9! for leadershi" and in3estment. the 9! "ressured 4atin 2merican countries to sus"end Cuba8s membershi" from the >rgani=ation of 2merican !tates (>2!1. farm machiner& and bic&cles.$ $De #ere concerned about our s"here of influence that #e had ta5en for granted. as #ell as oilH and that bilateral trade has reached [.M it is not.M %he Christian !cience Monitor.. Not onl& has Iran identified the same economic o""ortunities in the region as China and Russia.+ billionM (%he Economist1. 2t the same time. as a li5e-minded di"lomatic "artner.. Iran has "romised [0.M and as President >bama distances the 9. It #as not onl& the containment of communism that dro3e 9! attem"ts to oust Fidel Castro from the helm of Cuba in the earl& 0?+*s sa&s Mr. from the Ldi"lomac& of the "ast. Caniel >rtega. #ho Fust #on another si/-&ear term in office. %he tal5s ha3e focused on "ursuing the construction of a [EI* million Caribbean "ort financed b& Iran to alle3iate the ongoing energ& crisis in the small Central 2merican nation. a senior research fello# at the Council on @emis"heric 2ffairs. and 7renner sa&s it #as that mo3e that the 9! feared other countries . L%he moti3e for Iran’s recent interest in 4atin 2merica seems to be a desire to add to its small stoc5 of di"lomatic friends around the #orld. 7renner. E3er&thing seems to be business as usual. )*0). and to score "ro"aganda "oints against the 9nited !tates.$ 2fter the terrorist attac5s of ?-00. the anni3ersar& of the Cuban Missile Crisis #ill li5el& "ro3ide an o""ortunit& for the $e/treme left$ in 4atin 2merica to e/"ress su""ort for Cuba. 7efore the Cuban Missile Crisis. In3estment from outside Most of these relationshi"s are economic in nature among emerging economies. 2nd #hile the "olitics of the Cold Dar ha3e little rele3ance for 9!-4atin 2merican relations toda&. Fust a more modern iteration. If Russia. not because Z:ene=uelan PresidentR @ugo Cha3e= is sa&ing he is socialist. LI* &ears after Cuba Missile Crisis.$ sa&s 2le/ !anche=. !ome I* &ears later. and his allies including President E3o Morales in 7oli3ia and President Caniel >rtega in Nicaragua. Chief among them is Mr. the 9! faces the same situation. sa&s Phili" 7renner. W Monitor8s Euro"ean 7ureau Chief based in Paris.$ sa&s 7renner. $Russia is going to sell all 5inds of arms to :ene=uela. s"ecificall& :ene=uela’s anti-2merican President @ugo ChA3e=.!.0 billion in in3estments to de3elo" 7oli3ia’s natural gas industr& (ibid. masters in Fournalism from Columbia 9ni3ersit& and a 72 in histor& from the 9ni3ersit& of Michigan (!ara Miller.$ Mr. ma5ing it more difficult for Dashington to isolate regimes li5e Cuba. $Dhat the 9! feared the most in 0?+) has come to "ass. Cuba signed onto the non-aligned mo3ement. Dith gro#ing concern from the 9nited !tates. #hich sa# the 9nited !tates sBuare off o3er nuclear missiles stationed b& the !o3iet 9nion in Cuba. %he 9! #as also concerned about 4atin 2merican countries emulating Cuba. but it recogni=es 4atin 2merica. :ene=uelan officials sa& that Iran has in3ested more than [( billion in their countr& Hin "lants to assemble cars.1. Z%oda&R #e cannot dominate this region an&more. For a 3ariet& of reasons. sa&s 'ohns @o"5ins 4atin 2merican e/"ert Riordan Roett. ChA3e= has signed no fe#er than )** co-o"eration agreements #ith Iran. #ho authored $!ad and 4uminous Ca&sJ Cuba8s !truggle #ith the !u"er"o#ers after the Missile Crisis. Dith 9! influence #aning in the region. Roett sa&s. 4atin 2merica has been of increasing interest to Iran as #ell. 7ut in this age of Lne# beginnings. Iran has also been in ongoing tal5s #ith Nicaragua and its former Mar/ist guerrilla-turned-"resident. 4e/isNe/is1--@24 It #as #hat man& consider the most dangerous moment the #orld has e3er facedJ the Cuban Missile Crisis of 0?+). Countries loo5 #ithin the region. after the failed 7a& of Pigs in3asion. %he& do not loo5 to us for leadershi". China sur"assed the 9! as 7ra=il8s biggest trading "artner in )**?. once e&ed Cuba to buo& its "olitical "roFect close to the 2merican border. $%he& #ill be in solidarit& about the sur3i3al of the Castro brothers. *( infl&ence in Latin America is 'eclining no# an' it fails. in some #a&s the 9! finds itself in the 3er& "osition that set the stage for conflict in the first "lace. and to some e/tent to Cuba still. 2dditionall&. 7ra=il’s foreign minister 3isited Iran and in3ited Iranian President Mahmoud 2hmadineFad to 3isit 7ra=il. 2t the same time. but to India. %he flurr& of in3estment in countries ranging from :ene=uela to 7oli3ia hel"s to further undermine 9! global dominance in the region. tractors. China. "articularl& its geo"olitical stance in the Cold Dar.. a scenario that man& leaders #elcome toda&. 4atin 2merica is forging ahead #ith its o#n agenda. Cha3e=. for e/am"le. the 9! turned its attention from 4atin 2merica as it focused on terrorism and threats from the Middle East.

$ sa&s 7renner. leaders across "olitical s"ectrums said the& #ould Buestion attending another summit #ithout Cuba at the table. 8&ou are #ith us or &ou are against us. 9! thin5ing on the mo3ement #as. $ Cuba #as once the "ariah stateN it is no# a l&nch"in for all the other countries . and #as successfulN but during the grou"8s summit in 2"ril. 2t the time. $%his comes from ZColombian President 'uan ManuelR !antos.$ . our most lo&al all& in the region.8 %he "olitics surrounding Cuba at the >2! highlights the declining influence of the 9! on the region. Fift& &ears ago the 9! ad3ocated for Cuba8s sus"ension.in 4atin 2merica might follo#.

s&stem is becoming a ne# core as a s"here of authorit&. 7ut it does im"l& that the norms are increasingl& inter#o3en .N. such as states or national and international nongo3ernmental organi=ations. ne# s"heres of authorit& (!>2s1 ha3e emerged on the #orld scene (Rosenau 0??(1. #ithout su"ranational structures in the areas of securit& and for. @is a""roach lies in a #orld 3ie# that recasts the rele3ance of $territorialit&. !ome of these norms relate to human rights. such as economic and social matters. and rules. global go3ernance (@eld et al. Rosenau goes e3en further. there are com"le/ multicentric structures.N. %he 9. res"ect for international la#. ma5ing it necessar& for actors. s&stem. fair trade rules. @istor& does indeed matter. regionalism "resents an im"ortant alternati3e that includes the a#areness of the local identities and former e/"eriences that are remi/ed into the ne# s&stem. often hold different "ositions on maFor issues..N.)I*+*-article-0G0-0+*X*00+X-global-shift-un-s&stemand-ne#-regionalism-latin-america1--@24 %his is a mainl& theoretical article that intends to rethin5 the role of 4atin 2merica in the light of global s&stemic changesN and. !ome o3erall inBuiries e/amine the e/tent to #hich nation-states are using regional formations as 3ehicles of de3elo"ment and securit& strategies.N. #hich has gained "rominence as a source of normati3e and moral authorit&.tariats.tion to the homogeni=ing force of globali=ation. 0???1. s&stem and the ne# regionalism in 4atin 2merica. %he "oint of de"arture is that #ith the end of the Cold Dar. trade "artnershi"s. %his essa& "resents a more detailed anal&sis of regionali=ation and the 9. but it should be anal&=ed in light of the s&stemic shifts "roduced b& "ost-Cold Dar institutional changes.1.*ns&staina!le – Ne# Drgani6ations – . In relation to the former. furthermore. cultural. %he discussion also outlines elements inherent to the globali=ation "rocess that contribute to a closer discussion of the 4atin 2merican case. 0??E. #hich he calls s"heres of authorit& (!>2s1. to rethin5 is to disco3er. and economic1 ans#er to the globali=ation "rocess. )**(. arguing that this "ers"ecti3e is im"risoned b& the idea that the line bet#een domestic and foreign affairs still ser3es as the cutting edge of anal&sis.N. s&stem as a global s"here of authorit& and emerging regional constellations from the "eri"her& in 4atin 2merica. a ne# economic order and securit& bal. s&stem might im"ro3e the grou"s8 bargaining "o#er.nations. and the en3ironment. #hich function as a 5ind of local ("olitical. %his article e/"lores the lin5s bet#een the 9. through conce"ts such as #orld culture (7oli and %homas 0???1.otal assum"tion #as bi"olarit&.2ssistant Professor in Economic histor& and 4ecturer in 4atin 2merican !tudies at !toc5holm 9ni3ersit& (2ndres Ri3arola. the fight against "o3ert&.M 2rticle fromJ 4atin 2merican Politics and !ociet& d March )). s&stem and the theoretical im"lications of this relationshi" for the stud& of international relations.N. causing an erosion of the hegemon& of industriali=ed countries from North 2merica and Euro"e (the traditional core1 that ha3e held dominant economic and normati3e control o3er the s&stem.1 holds.national le3erage and is subFected to different forms of national control. %he 9. 2nother "i3. %hese include the #aning dichotom& bet#een domestic and foreign mar5etsN the di"lomatic artic- ulations. Common among these a""roaches is that the& go be&ond nation-states to include international go3ernmental. each #ith its o#n go3erning bodies. 3alues. #ith su"er"o#ers setting the agenda of alliances and conflicts along #hich states delineated their strategies. "rocesses. and secre. both "illars ha3e been se3erel& challenged. s&stem still is a rather loose net#or5 of organi=ations. nongo3ern.ance is ta5ing form in the ne# institutional en3ironment generall& called globali=ation. and #e must 5ee" in mind that social "rocesses contain lines of continuit& and change.highbeam. and em"ire (@ardt and Negri )**01. 2 %@E>RE%IC24 >:ER:IED 2 maFor assum"tion of mainstream studies in international relations since the end of Dorld Dar II has been a statecentric "oint of 3ie# in #hich nation-state interests #ere the 5e& units of anal&sis. and the ne# forms of di"lomatic articulations and regional e/"ressions (e. as Celich ()**.tionshi"N the contradictions bet#een the regional and international ordersN and the a#areness of local identities and former e/"eriences that are remi/ed into the ne# s&stem. 2 basic h&"othesis in this article is that the 9.ne# instit&tions a"e gro#n to sta!ili6e Latin America #it o&t t e *nite' (tates )&ntigliano/ > . budgets.$ highlighting instead the $"orosit& of boundaries$ (0??(. ho#e3er. should not lead to a neglect of the "ast. together #ith a homogeni=ation of norms that con3e&s a 5ind of moral identit& on the s&stem. Probabl& as a reac. ?1. t#o im"ortant elements are the #aning significance of the dichotom& bet#een domestic and foreign mar5ets. >ne increasingl& rele3ant s"here of authorit& is the 9. s&stem agencies. LGlobal shiftJ the 9. and legitimating 3alues at #or5 in the rela. %he tendenc& for interaction does not im"l& an absence of conflict in the s&stem. %he issue is thus not #hether to combine domestic and international e/"la.mental.8 Each com"onent of the s&stem has a different 5ind of inter. htt"J--business. Get there a""ears to be a tendenc& for greater su"ranational interaction among them. and #hat this could mean for ho# "eri"heral states formulate their long-term foreign and de3elo"ment strategies. but ho# best to do so (E3ans et al.N. "undits maintain that state-centric literature is an uncertain foundation for theori=ing about ho# domestic and international "olitics interact (Putnam 0??E1. ho#e3er. %he #ord ne#. %hat conce"tion is still true. 2n im"ortant im"lication of this change is that #ith the end of bi"olarit& and the erosion of su"er"o#er hegemon&. %here is a gro#ing interest in research on ne# s"heres of author. %he article further anal&=es #hether a stronger lin5 bet#een "eri"her& grou"ings and the 9. or regional organi=ations as central actors in the formation of s"heres of authorit& (see also .com-. to dichotomies in the international s&stem. For such anal&sis. +. nor does it suggest that all agencies inter"ret the norms in the same #a&. norms. or organi=ations1.g. %his means that instead of a state-centric "redominance.it&N for e/am"le.NC All former nee' for *( lea'ers ip is gone.N.eign "olic&. !ince the "ost-0?X? transformations.

0???1. %herefore. and creators of human rights standards. %his means that the %here ha3e been regional grou"ings in the "ast. the 9. de3elo"ment "riorities. the issue of defining globali=ation is itself an endless theme (@ettne )**0.bisch (0?. for e/am"le. and international go3ernmental and nongo3ernmental elaborate strategies that ta5e into account the different (and sometimes antagonistic1 com"onents of the s&stem. Parado/icall&. Et=ioni8s #ords gi3e "erha"s a good "icture of the 9. %here is. the 9. #hereas the old regionalism #as mar5ed b& bi"olarit&. More and more studies "oint to the strengthening of non-state-centered sources of rulema5ing. and other grou"s (see 7a&ne and Doolcoc5 )**.tion of core and "eri"her&.N. s&stem. 2ccording to such a 3ie#.$ 2nother feature of the ne# regionalism is that it ta5es "lace in a multi"olar global order. @ence.inated b& the core. %his "oint is central in lin5ing the ideas of !hils and of @ettne et al.tion and regionali=ation are occurring simultaneousl& . In a #a&. Dhereas the E9 has recei3ed much attention.1. &et a maFor difference bet#een old and relation. $there is no consensus on #hat 5ind of #orld order. or. $the #orld is full of organi=ations that "roduce rules for others-be the& states. "robabl& because these regional grou". this stud& shares the 3ie# of those #ho argue that the globali=ation "rocess is changing the #a& #e thin5 about global $authorit&. and securit&. ne# regionalisms is that the ne# are not onl& concerned #ith economic issues. but it is narro# to loo5 at it from the "er. e"istemic communities. unilateralism during the IraB crisis sho#s that $the first and last geo"olitical truth is that states "ursue securit& b& "ursuing "o#er$ (Glennon )**E1. but also ha3e securit& im"erati3es . !ome com. "ri3ate com"anies.!.ence. In the #ords of 7runsson and 'acobsson ()***1. %he Euro"ean 9nion (E91 is a "ioneer in this sense. regionalism in the "eri"her& has dra#n little.. if an&. in #hich conce"ts such as $third #orld$ ha3e lost their meaning. the 9nited !tates. and social initiati3es is transforming the $region$ into a $s&nthesis$ of national securit& and de3elo"ment as"irations. %here are certainl& man& challenges to international la# as #ell as structural "roblems at the 9. #hich does not im"l& that all societies must be highl& integrated or that the& are all eBual (!hils 0?XX1. IraB has also sho#n the limitations of $hard "o#er$ and the need for $soft "o#er$ (the abilit& to attract others b& the legitimac& of "olicies and 3alues1.fore be remembered that regions are not gi3en but rather created and recreated in the "rocess of global transformation. Indeed. Moreo3er.mentators "ortra& the organi=ation as largel& a failure because it does not reflect thie underl&ing d&namics of "o#er.and education-related issues. )01. of course.rit& relations.$ 0000It is also becoming a central node in a s&stem of international go3ernmental and nongo3ernmental organi=ations that is forming a ne# dimension of #orld "olit&.?1 or Cardoso and Faletto (0?(. such as the one e/"ressed through the $ne# regionalism. 7ut other center-"eri"her& studies also are 3er& im"ortant. some researchers maintain that the end of the Cold Dar has not meant a more fle/ible en3ironment for the 4atin 2merican countries and that $eco. %hese include transnationall& organi=ed sources of "o#er and legitimac&. the regional "o#ers in @ettne8s formulation are analogous to #hat !hils refers to as countercenters. a second h&"othesis in this stud& is that regional constellations are becoming a ne# means of e/"ression for nation-states.1 to the Mar/ist-ins"ired studies of Fran5 (0?(01. "eri"her& is seen not necessaril& Fust as a 3ictim but also as a source of "o#er. %hus.N the latter see the rise of regional "o#ers as contributing to the decline of hegemon& of the industrial "o#ers (@ettne et al.2min )***1. 2bout this. but also standardi=ation organi=ations. an interesting dimension of "eri"her& regionalism and its lin5 to the 9.bilit& and the means to manage such a tas5 alone. 0(1.s"ecti3e of the "re-0?X? s&stem. as @ettne ()**01 notes. #e can e/"ect to emerge from the combination of #hate3er changes are actuall& occurring in the global configuration of "o#er$ (2rrighi and !il3er 0???.flict. (0???1. #ith its "o#erful militar& machine. the ne# region. 7u=an (0??0. "rocesses of economic globali=a. 9.$ %hat is true. 2long this same line. %hese stem from the "ers"ecti3e outlined b& !hils (0?(I1.N. because an increasing number of states reali=e that the& lac5 the ca"a.ings ha3e still not reached the E98s le3el of institutionali=ation and influ.E01 holds that $the best a3ailable set of terms to ca"ture the relationshi"s of the 0??*s comes from the center. gi3en that the 9nited !tates $cannot confront the ne# threat of terrorism #ithout the coo"eration of other countries$ (N&e )**.nomic matters a""ear to . @e 3ie#s conflict as an e/"ression of the "eri"her&8s resistance to assimilation b& the core. agencies "la& as "romoters. a debate around the role of the 9. there is also a centri"etal force that creates coherence among global units of the s&stem and its regional subunits. ReFecting the rigidities inherent in man& core. in s"ite of its crisis. Countercenters are seen as designating the "eri"her&8s "ermanent desire to "enetrate the s"here of authorit& dom. matters. antithesis. $de3elo"ment has more e/"licitl& become a securit& issue and this is ta5ing form as e/hibited b& the ne# 5ind of regional constellations.J 2nother conseBuence of the end of the East-Dest dichotom& that is rele3ant for this stud& is the emergence of a ne# "attern of global secu. "arallel to the centrifugal forces unleashed b& the globali=a. !hils "ro"oses three central ideasJ integration.N. 0+1. though. %hus. It should there."eri"her& a""roach elaborated in the de"endenc& literature of the 0?+*s and 0?(*s. defenders.alism can be seen as a #a& of co"ing #ith global transformations. 2 main 3alue of this "ers"ecti3e is that it contains a d&namic model that is 3er& useful for anal&=ing current changes in the international s&stem.N. in acting #ith one 3oice in the Dorld %rade >rgani=ation (D%>1. health.N Et=ioni )**. through the formation of countercenters. albeit generall& ignored b& the de3elo"ment debate. could ste" o3er international la# and in3ade IraB (certainl& a "oint for the neorealists1.N. !ome of these regulators are states themsel3es or are connected to states. %urning more s"ecificall& to the 4atin 2merican case. In a model reminiscent of Friedrich @egel8s thesis. Furthermore.tims or in nation-building missions (Cobbin )**I1. con. in hel"ing to mobili=e resources to assist the tsunami 3ic. #hen there #as a state-centered notion of the core attached to the industriali=ed countries and their economic grou"s as the dominant s"here of authorit&.N.N.$ >f course.N but this does not necessaril& reflect an increasing hegemon& of the 9nited !tates. economic. >n the other hand. #hich has been seen as one of the maFor organi=ations. in the role that 9. @e argues that there must al#a&s be some measure of integration for a societ& to e/ist.N.shi" bet#een de3elo"ment and securit& must be reconsidered. %here is.$ 2ccording to @ettne et al. as recentl&. culture. 2long this line. com"anies or indi3iduals-to follo#. s&stem is increasingl& a source of global legitimac& and a 5ind of $moralit& of last resort. #hich are starting to amalgamate securit& and de3elo". because. no single ans#er about ho# to ada"t to the ne# global structures. and countercenters. including states. the mi/ing of securit&. ho#e3er. It is also im"ortant to note that the so-called de"endenc& literature had 3er& di3ergent "ers"ecti3es on the center"eri"her& issue. Get there are indications of change in both senses. ranging from the structuralist #or5 of Pre.$ %a5ing all these elements into account. ."eri"her& 3ie#s. and s&nthesis a""roach. %his can be a""reciated.tion "rocess. s&stem is that it a""ears to challenge the established Cold Dar "erce".ment strategies and ta5e ad3antage of the room to maneu3er o"ened through the 9. but some are more loosel& connected or e3en not connected at all. !hils does not see "o#er as a one-#a& street of core dominance o3er "eri"her&.

the issue of securit& in 4atin 2merica has been related to national defense. Colombia’s militar& incursion in Ecuador in the same &ear.M In the same article. sentiment. :ene=uela L4atin 2merican 9nit& %a5es Center !tage as 9. Dith globali=ation. L@istoricall&. right. the 9nited !tates 3oted #ith the rest of 4atin 2merica in fa3or of Cuba’s readmission into the >2!. %he latter generall& had an im"erati3e in the ideological alignment behind one of the t#o su"er"o#ers. :elAsBue= said. >ne of the most remar5able is Mercosur. it did so onl& out of fear of being isolated on the Cuban issue. and onl& if Cuba "romised to res"ect the human rights of its citi=ensHa condition.!. in )**I.ha3e re"laced "olitical ones as the fulcrum u"on #hich core influence is "ressed on 4atin 2merica$ (@e& and Mora )**E1. #hen $de3elo"ment$ and $foreign "olic&$ #ere largel& se"arate issues. ho#e3er.M e/"lained the Christian !cience Monitor. in Cecember. intended it to "ro3ide momentum for the F%22 "ro"osal. %he >bama administration’s acce"tance of this st&le of debate re"resented a concession. "articularl& on the 5e& issues of Cuba.!.!. "resident 7arac5 >bama.M :elAsBue= "ointed to additional e3idence of 9. decriminali=ation of drugs. 2fter all. %ashma1 In s"ite of sur"rises in the lead-u" to the !i/th !ummit of the 2mericas in Cartagena. but the full im"act of the issues that are being raised b& these organi=ations is an o"en Buestion. %he mere a""earance of acBuiescence on the issue of Cuban membershi" into the >2! brought do#n the #rath of the 9. In all three conflicts.R 4atin 2merica’s unified "ositions at the Cartagena summit "ut the lie to these statements. a ))-"age document #as signed b& onl& the host countr& for the same reason. %rinidadian "rime minister Patric5 Manning in his closing s"eech s"o5e o"timisticall& of Lthe more o"en and conciliator& "ositionM of the then recentl& elected 9. #hich #as founded in Caracas. Much of the 9.1. it #ill be 3er& little. &et this 3ie# fails to "ercei3e the effects of the "ost-Cold Dar changes discussed abo3e. @o#e3er. .!. ChA3e=’s "art&. and the dis"ute o3er the Mal3inasHother#ise 5no#n as the Fal5land Islands. !uch logic moti3ated international alignments and "olicies that often left aside long-term de3elo"ment ad3antages and fos. In the "re3ious summit in %rinidad in )**?. mediaHand the foreign "olic& e/"erts the& BuoteHdismisses the im"ortance of these organi=ational de3elo"ments. >n that occasion. %raditionall&. L#ill loo5 bad. 7ra=il. :ene=uelan "resident @ugo ChA3e=. and the attem"ted Ecuadoran cou" in )*0*. It is true that man& Cold Dar economic and militar& ineBualities still "ersist. "articularl& because the 9. the 9N General 2ssembl& has "assed near unanimous resolutions condemning the Cuban embargo o3er the last t#o decades #ithout tangible results. on 2"ril 0. #ho called for defunding the organi=ation.MZ. CE42C. .Z0R Follo#ing the Cartagena summit.M 7oli3ia’s 9N ambassador Rafael 2rchondo told me. the Common Mar5et of the !outh. is ban5rolling all three organi=ations as 3enues for grandstanding. Paragua&.M :elAsBue= added.Z)R %he ne#l& created organi=ations that e/clude the 9nited !tates #ere at least "artiall& res"onsible for the change.!. :ene=uela. #ho called CE42C a forum for ChA3e= to L"ontificate and fan anti-9. Carmen :elAsBue=. albeit a relati3el& minor one. "rofessor at the 9ni3ersidad de >riente in Puerto 4a Cru=. I as5ed :ene=uela’s >2! re"resentati3e. %hat "osition #as "articularl& true for the Cold Dar "eriod. For Dashington. one of her countr&’s chief negotiators at Cartagena. including Congressman Connie Mac5 (R-Fla. a #hole ne# agenda emerged.!.M (-)*-0). !he res"onded affirmati3el& "ointing out that the !ummit of the 2mericas is LDashington’s bab&.com-anal&sis-(00(. and lac5ing ci3ilian leadershi" or in"ut from the academic communit& (Ciamint )**. %he Cuban issue again flared u" Fust t#o months . goes be&ond the confines of the !outh 2merican-based 9N2!9R b& bringing the Caribbean and Central 2merican nations into the organi=ational fold.!. ho#e3er. the summit agenda has been seen as dictated b& the 9nited !tates. (!te3e. Influence Ceclines. formed b& 2rgentina. %he Dall !treet 'ournal labeled CE42C LMr.M %he "a"er Buoted Christo"her !abatini of the Council of the 2mericas. ZCE42CR is going to achie3e. the conference #as the latest in se3eral &ears of di"lomatic re3erses highlighted b& the defeat of the 9. More recentl&. economist 7oris !egura of Nomura @oldings stated that Lin terms of #hat .$ + e er&ption of ne# organi6ations ero'es *2(2 infl&ence in t e region Ellner/ 1. boasts that 4atin 2merica is a safe "lace for democrac& and free of the head-on clashes seen else#here in the #orld. Colombian "resident 'uan Manuel !antos "ointed out that the Ldirect and o"enM manner in #hich a #ide range of Lhot issuesM #ere discussed constituted a brea5through in inter-2merican relations. and 9rugua&. %he most far-reaching de3elo"ment leading u" to the Cartagena summit #as the ne# hemis"heric configuration manifested b& the consolidation of organi=ations "romoting 4atin 2merican unit&. and more recentl& the Communit& of 4atin 2merican and Caribbean !tates (CE42C1. 2rgentina. together #ith ne# regional actors.!. s"ecificall& the 7oli3arian 2lliance for the Peo"les of >ur 2merica (24721. restricted to the militar&. the results of the conference #ere "redictable.-"romoted Free %rade 2rea of the 2mericas (F%221 at the Fourth !ummit of the 2mericas in Mar del Plata. Colombia. 2 lac5 of consensus "re3ented the summit from "roducing a final document.1.M %he 9. a""rehension o3er the "ossibilit& that 4atin 2merican nations ma& distance themsel3es from their neighbor to the north.W0I. !he recalled that at the >2! General 2ssembl& in )**?. #hich meant gi3ing "riorit& to militar& securit& "ers"ecti3es. because the region is di3ided. it #as an initiati3e of President 7ill Clinton. the 9nion of !outh 2merican Nations (9N2!9R1. L2n& brea5do#n of the summit tradition. the >2! #as left on the sidelines. it is claimed. L2472 has acted some#hat as a bloc #ithin 9N2!9R and CE42C and the resolutions and stands of all three organi=ations ha3e hardened the "ositions of 4atin 2merican go3ernments 3is-e-3is the 9nited !tates.!. htt"J--3ene=uelanal&sis.M Indeed. that Lthe Cubans rightfull& considered humiliating and "redictabl& reFected.tered an o3er#helming concern about the role of the 9nited !tates as an economic and securit& counter"art. #hether an&one is ta5ing the debate and infighting seriousl&. %his emerging bloc is becoming a ne# catal&st of regional "ositions in multilateral arenas and is one of the clearest e/"ressions of the $ne# regionalism. #hich #ould assure Cuba’s "artici"ation in hemis"heric discussions in the near future. stratagem #as ris5&.ZER %his de"iction ignores 9N2!9R’s im"ressi3e trac5 record in conflict resolution follo#ing ram"ant "olitical 3iolence in 7oli3ia in )**X. #ho in 0??. %he 9nited !tates and Canada found themsel3es distanced from their neighbors to the south.

hegemon& and fa3or the assertion of national so3ereignt& and other Fust causes. Engel harshl& attac5ed :ene=uela and 7oli3ia and denounced CE42C as a Lri3alM to the >2! that fails to L"romote unit& or coo"eration. !antos. Ecuadoran "resident Rafael Correa called on the 2472 nations to bo&cott the conference if Cuba #ere not allo#ed to "artici"ate. for instance. >nl& im"ortant concessions b& Dashington can forestall an organi=ational shift in the hemis"here. 3eto on Cuban "artici"ation in the !ummit of the 2mericas on grounds of alleged human rights 3iolation.MZ(R From the 3ie#"oint of the more radical nations li5e :ene=uela.ZIR %he 2472 nations. In more general terms.M reFects the Lanachronistic colonial situation on 2merican soilM and a""lauds the Ldis"osition of the 2rgentine go3ernment to reach a "eaceful solution. in a s"eech to the >2! shortl& before the Cartagena summit. it #ea5ens the >2!. 2fter . the& ne3ertheless a""lauded Guatemala’s initiati3e for starting a much-needed debate on the failed #ar on drugs. "olic& to#ard Cuba LanachronisticM and Lineffecti3e. #rote. #hom the 9. #hich s"onsors the summits.MZ?R + e 'efiant positions on specific iss&es from the conser"ati"e presi'ents of Colombia and Guatemala reflect Was ingtonCs #aning infl&ence in t e region ("articularl& in light of !antos’s ho"e that the 9nited !tates #ill Buic5l& im"lement the recentl& a""ro3ed 9. !antos tra3eled to @a3ana in an attem"t to sta3e off a bo&cott b& all 2472 nations. Great 7ritain has beefed u" its militar& "resence on the islands. the o""osition to Cuba8s "artici"ation in the summit. "ro3ed more intransigent than the alleged firebrand ChA3e=. ho"es that the ne# o"en atmos"here on the to"ic #ill generate su""ort for its recent "ro"osal to ta5e cultural traditions into consideration in order to e/em"t certain nations from enforcing international agreements on "rohibiting coca leaf culti3ation. the failure to "roduce a final document at Cartagena is a setbac5 for Dashington in t#o res"ects.!. a "osition su""orted b& se3eral former 4atin 2merican "residents. according to 2rchondo.!. chairman of the @ouse of Re"resentati3es’ !ubcommittee on the Destern @emis"here. such as Chile and Colombia.!.Z+R In contrast. e3identl& anno&ed at the Cartagena summit’s failure to arri3e at a consensus on the issue. Correa. !tate Ce"artment has ho"ed to rein in for some time. #hile in recent &ears it has engaged in e/"lorator& offshore oil drilling in the area. 9N2!9R. FernAnde=. the lac5 of an agreement #as largel& the result of 4atin 2merica’s resol3e to "ush for certain changes. refused to sign an& document at Cartagena that failed to commit itself to Cuban "artici"ation at the ne/t summit to be held in Panama.-Colombia Free %rade 2greement1. in large "art because the& #ere eager to maintain cordial relations #ith summit host Colombia. . a realit& that #ill thrust hard choices on Dashington in the immediate future. 2fter some hesitation. !ince the defeat of the 2rgentine in3asion of the Mal3inas in 0?X). along #ith 2rgentina and 9rugua&. %he >bama administration refuses to ta5e a stand on the issue. the consolidation of 2472. but the realit& is that the& had no choice because the Central 2mericans #ere "ushing hard on the issue. 2lthough other 4atin 2merican go3ernments #ere not con3inced of the "ro"osal’s feasibilit&. !hortl& after Guatemala "ro"osed that illegal drugs be decriminali=ed. left the conference earl&. In res"onse to the 9. the 2mericans #ere left #ithout 3eto "o#er.ZXR Man& in Dashington feel threatened b& these de3elo"ments. LIt is said that the 9nited !tates o"ened the door to discussion. 7oli3ia and :ene=uela decided against follo#ing Ecuador’s lead. %he call caught different actors b& sur"rise.before the Cartagena summit.M in #hich ne# s"aces are occu"ied that undermine 9.1. CE42C’s founding document. fl3aro Forero.M and added that Cuba’s e/clusion in Panama #ould be Lunthin5able. . culminating this &ear in the alleged de"lo&ment of a nuclear submarine. thus creating a 3acuum that 9N2!9R and CE42C are in a "osition to fill.!. #ho o"ted for a di"lomatic strateg& and a broad-based alliance.!. called the 9. %his #as inad3ertentl& made clear b& Eliot Engel (C-N. In a sur"rise mo3e. 2rchondo told me.M %he CE42C resolution reflects the more militant and acti3e role of the 2rgentine go3ernment of Cristina FernAnde= de Kirchner and the su""ort for its "osition b& nations that had turned their bac5s on 2rgentina at the time of the #ar. !econd. for his "art. although the& ma& not admit it. the LCeclaration of Caracas.M 2nother issue that "itted the countries of the south against those of the north #as the Mal3inas dis"ute. First. . "articularl& in light of !antos’s acti3ist role as conciliator on Cuba and other issues. Recentl& elected Guatemalan "resident >tto P<re= Molina s"rung another sur"rise shortl& before the summit #hen he attem"ted to secure Central 2merican su""ort for the decriminali=ation of illegal drugs.G. and CE42C forms "art of #hat could be called a L#ar of "osition. as it had done u" until recentl&. Cuba sur"rised some b& announcing its interest in attending the summit. 7oli3ia. a "rominent columnist for the centrist Colombian El Es"ectador. e3en to the e/tent of urging both sides to sit do#n and negotiate.

its economic #ea5nesses. Februar& )**. the relati3e decline of 9. hegemon& in the globali=ed "ost-Cold Dar international econom& is a serious structural constraint on the abilit& of the 9nited !tates to assert its authorit& o3er the rest of the Destern hemis"here in economic matters. @EGEM>NG IN 42%IN 2MERIC2. .!. %ashma1 2n alternati3e inter"retation is that although as&mmetr& is an essential characteristic of 9. impair its a!ility to e@ercise egemony e3en in Latin America (its traditional s"here of influence1 thus o"ening u" a #indo# of o""ortunit& for 4atin 2merican countries to ha3e inde"endent foreign economic "olicies. %@E FREE %R2CE 2RE2 >F %@E 2MERIC2!. Ph.e ot er aspects of *2(2 infl&ence in Latin America completely moot --. le/is. )0 %he abilit& of the 9nited !tates to e/ercise hegemon& b& consent has been damaged b& the unfulfilled "romises of the neo-liberal reforms "romoted b& the Dashington Consensus in the 0??*s. >n the other hand.. @o#e3er.'. )* %he as&mmetric distribution of structural "o#er in fa3or of the 9nited !tates in the Destern hemis"here does not automaticall& translate into 9.nesses 'erail egemonic efforts Carran6a/ E (Cr. des"ite the structural "o#er of its 9. )) %he 9nited !tates ma& be the Zb0*E(R #orld8s most "o#erful countr& in terms of militar& ca"abilities. %e/as 2 P M 9ni3ersit&Kings3ille.C. 2ssociate Professor of Political !cience.!.NC Hig tra'e 'eficits ma. 0*)?.-!outh 2merican relations. 2NC %@E F9%9RE >F 9.!... [ 0* trillion econom&. hegemon&. including de"endence on foreign ca"ital in order to finance current account deficits. 9ni3ersit& of Chicago.*ns&staina!le – +ra'e Deficits – .!.!.!. L42%IN 2MERIC2N PER!PEC%I:EJ MERC>!9R. the dramatic rise in the relati3e "o#er of 7ra=il since the 0?(*s and the structural "roblems facing the 9. Coerci3e leadershi" is not the same as hegemon& b& consent.M )( Fordham Int8l 4. Mario E.economic #ea. econom& ma5e it "ossible for MERC>!9R to narro# its current ga" in GCP #ith the 9 nited !tates in the ne/t decades.

LDI44 42%IN 2MERIC2 MI!! 9.!. %he 9nited !tates ho"ed to re5indle relations #ith man& !outh and Central 2merican nations at the fifth !ummit of the 2mericas held in 2"ril )**?. "g. and common interests.!. President >bama indicated a desire for a Lne# beginning. Miguel %in5er-!alas. there #ere genuine "olic& dis"utes that challenged 9. ProBuest. htt"J--realtruth.!. @o#e3er. cites Miguel %in5er-!alas.!. Issue ). !ummit leaders in3ited Cuba. %ashma1 9nited !tates’ Daning Influence E3idence of diminishing 9.-americas. Editor in Chief of 2mericas guarterl& and !enior Cirector of Polic& at the 2mericas !ociet& and the Council of the 2mericas. leaders from the Caribbean and Central. 9ea'=&sting t e political image of t e *nited (tates #as not eno&g gi"en t e political an' i'eological s ifts t at a' starte' in 1008N the "o#er eBuation #ithin the hemis"here had shifted. :olume ++. For the countries that made u" 2472. said that the #aning influence of the 9. "resident endured criticism from socialist "residents @ugo ChA3e= of :ene=uela.!. %he "ur"ose of the annual meeting is to address regional issues im"acting 4atin 2merican and Caribbean countries.org-articles-*?*I*. moral and "olitical standing in the hemis"here.html. #ho deli3ered a fier& s"eech at the summit in #hich he condemned Dashington’s terroristic aggression in Central 2merica and its isolation of Cuba’s Communist go3ernment. Portugal and !"ain for the first time since the founding of the meeting. has recentl& begun to manifest itself. !o I’m here to launch a ne# cha"ter of engagementcM Mr. !"ring )*0E. D!amaCs promises are irrele"ant --. the region itself had become more di3erse. "rofessor of 4atin 2merican histor& at Pomona College in Claremont. L%he last 0* &ears ha3e "roduced dramatic changes in 4atin 2merica. #ith com"eting and conflicting needs and interests from the mar5etfriendl& "olicies of Chile to the 5nee-Fer5 insecurit& of 2rgentina and the gro#ing di"lomatic asserti3eness of 7ra=il. Moreo3er. and shared 3alues. Calif. L4atin 2merica 4oo5s East Dhere Coes %his 4ea3e the 9nited !tates6.M I-0*-*?. President 7arac5 >bama and his team found a changed hemis"here in #hich dis"utes #ith the gringos to the north #ere more than Fust an eas& #a& of scoring "o"ulist "oints. 9. influence in 4atin 2merica became e3ident #ith its e/clusion from the Rio Grou" summit in )**X.M he said.t e region is t&rning to t e East for assistance 9+/ 0 (%he Real %ruth.-**.!. 0-a:I.M but 4atin 2merican nations ma& alread& ha3e found a ne# !eginning.*ns&staina!le – A+F D!ama (ol"es D!ama canCt 'o anyt ing a!o&t #aning *2(2 infl&ence in t e region (a!atini/ 14 (Christo"her. 2s E.M 'ournal of International 2ffairs. "rofessor of 4atin 2merican histor& at Pomona College.!. !outh and North 2merica gathered to discuss the future of the region. but e/cluded the 9nited !tates. %ashma1 Man& sa# the election of an 2frican-2merican "resident as a #a& to restore 9. >bama also e/tended an oli3e branch to longtime "olitical ri3al Cuba in ho"e of a Lne# beginning. President 7arac5 >bama "romised a fresh a""roach to di"lomac& for the hemis"here in his o"ening addressJ L%here’s no senior "artner and Funior "artner in our relations. interests be&ond ideolog&. the 9. and Caniel >rtega of Nicaragua.M In doing so.#it gro#ing s&perpo#ers of Asia2 . @EGEM>NG6. Land one of the most stri5ing is the loss of the 9nited !tates’ formerl& to#ering dominance in a #ide range of areasM (Christian !cience Monitor1. %here’s sim"l& engagement based on mutual res"ect..

director of the Centre for Economic and Polic& Research. cultural and e3en militar& tiesN but as in the states of the former !o3iet 9nion after 0??*. %he 9nited !tates has been too focused on the Middle East and the LDar on %error. China is also eager to finance go3ernments loo5ing for loans. >ne of the main e/am"les anal&sts and "oliticians ali5e use is China. as . #hich had to #ait si/ &ears for a free-trade agreement to be ratified b& the 9nited !tates. "olitical. 4atin 2merican go3ernments are riding high on a commodit& boom and are tr&ing to get the best deals the& can. or #orse. le/is.. %he& are certainl& noticed. Issue . 4i5e so man& commonl& acce"ted arguments.!. Foreign 2ffairs has run three articles since the beginning of the &ear #arning of the dangers of 4atin 2merica’s left-"o"ulist drift. bro5en a#a&. 7ush or 7arac5 >bama did. De cannot control them. and much of !outh 2merica. It is #illing to "a& handsomel& for the commodities it #ants. %hat is not ne#. influence is not as high as it once #as. #e #ould ha3e to belie3e that Colombia #ould not bother loo5ing to other "arts of the #orld if onl& it had a free-trade agreement #ith the 9nited !tates. liberali=ation of international trade. "olic&. Dith its 3ast reser3es. %o borro# from the Cold Dar frame#or5 that still "re3ails in 9.ing egemonic control of Latin American is impossi!le – &ncontrolla!le factors 'ictate t e f&t&re of Latin America Wee. It is certainl& the case that the 9nited !tates "a&s relati3el& little attention to 4atin 2merica com"ared to the rest of the #orld. #ood "ul". %ashma1 Con3entional #isdom holds that the 9nited !tates has been ignoring 4atin 2merica. 9. :olume E+. "residents ha3e "ressing interests else#here. a Castro-ChA3e=-E3o Morales a/is that "oses a strategic threat to the 9nited !tates.!. %ashma1 %he changes that ha3e ta5en "lace in 4atin 2merica in recent &ears are "art of an e"och-ma5ing transformation. %his is re"eated endlessl&. + ere are man& 'ifferent reasons for t is H China’s rise. there is a factual nugget there. there are international economic forces at #or5 that go far be&ond 9. but o3erall it is mista5en. and there are al#a&s ta5ers. China is hungr& for ra# materials such as so&. Mean#hile. @ardl& a da& goes b& #ithout "rominent #arnings that the region W or at least a good "art of it W is on the road to L"o"ulistM ruin. of course. %hat is hard to s#allo#. *2(2 lea'ers ip is 'oome' in Latin America – itCs on a long-term/ irre"ersi!le 'ecline Weis!rot/ 14 (Mar5. !u""osedl& Colombia became tired of #aiting and therefore established trade ties not onl& #ith China. Granted. and in that sense 9.M the argument goes. For this argument to hold. L4atin 2mericaJ %he End of an Era. foreign "olic& circlesJ #e ha3e #itnessed the colla"se of the 7erlin Dall. 2 region that has been dominated b& the 9nited !tates for more than a centur& has no#. >f course there are still strong commercial. but similarl& "essimistic about #hat is ha""ening in the region. %he 9nited !tates is not LlosingM 4atin 2merica to China. but also #ith the Euro"ean 9nion. and therefore does not adeBuatel& e/"lain recent change. >n the right W including the 7ush administration W this "rocess is 3ie#ed through a Cold Dar "rism. and fresh commitments.!. #hich has "ursued economic agreements across the region and is entering mar5ets once dominated b& the 9nited !tates. as #hen the !tate Ce"artment cut off arms sales to :ene=uela on Ma& 0I for Llac5 of coo"erationM in fighting terrorism. Canada. and #ould ha3e mo3ed for#ard no matter #hat the administrations of George D.M %he Miami @erald. iron and. %he liberal-center 3ie#s are less bellicose. and should not "retend that #e can. %here are more economic actors at the table in 4atin 2merica than e3er before. 0)-X-00. 2 second e/am"le is Colombia. and onl& a tin& fraction of Congress "a&s much attention to the region. these do not ha3e the same economic or "olitical im"lications that the& had a decade or e3en a fe# &ears ago.s/ 11 (Gregor&. for the changes in 4atin 2mericaN 42%IN 2MERIC2. oil. and the formation of ne#l& inde"endent states. 'ust ta5e a loo5 at Chile and Me/ico. #hich has ser3ed to diminish our o#n influence. both of #hich ha3e those free-trade agreements &et simultaneousl& embrace economic globali=ation. LCon’t blame 9. 7ut that has been true for much of the "ast )** &ears. different in3estors. associate "rofessor of "olitical science and director of 4atin 2merican !tudies at the 9ni3ersit& of North Carolina at Charlotte. changing the "olic& #ill not change basic economic realities. thus "rom"ting go3ernments there to see5 ne# trading "artners. %hese changes seem to ha3e been largel& misunderstood W and 3astl& underestimated W across the "olitical s"ectrum.!. Imagined or im"lied lin5s to terrorism and the drug trade (little or no e3idence is "ro3ided1 are sometimes added for effect.*ns&staina!le – A+F )lan (ol"es 9eta.M International 'ournal of @ealth !er3ices. for the most "art.!. and the )**X crash among them H !&t fe# relate 'irectly to *2(2 policy to#ar' Latin America2 In other #ords. co""er. %hese economic relationshi"s ha3e nothing to do #ith the 9 nited !tates. %he& #ould not change that strateg& based on an&thing the 9nited !tates did. Instead.

editorials. and ta5e the form of flesh and blood. and choose a )I-&ear "eriod that includes both Dorld Dar I and start of the Great Ce"ression. the& ha3e gotten most of #hat the& #antedJ go3ernments ha3e drasticall& reduced restrictions on international trade and on in3estment flo#s. %he state-led industrial "olicies and de3elo"ment "lanning of the "ast ha3e been abandoned. or out"ut "er hour of labor W is 3ital. %he ne#s re"orts. It is the gro#th failure that has de"ri3ed a generation and a half of an& chance to im"ro3e its li3ing standards. and some in the streets W a number of go3ernments loo5ing for more "ractical and effecti3e #a&s to ma5e ca"italism #or5. and so it is not sur"rising that "residential candidates #ho cam"aigned e/"licitl& against LneoliberalismM ha3e in recent &ears #on elections in 2rgentina. 7ut the cumulati3e results ha3e been an economic disaster. and more successful macroeconomic "olicies. Most often #e read that these reforms ha3e been successful in "romoting gro#th. and the "ossible alternati3es for restoring gro#th and de3elo"ment W onl& no# beginning to be e/"lored W 3ar& greatl& b& countr&.!. 7ut it should be clear that #hat #e are no# #itnessing is a res"onse to this e"och-ma5ing economic failure. including "eo"le in the 9nited !tates. after adFusting for inflation. %he Buestion of #hich "olicies contributed to the man& and 3aried national economic failures is more com"le/. but most im"ortantl& it a""ears 3er& "ossible that 4atin 2merica’s long Buarter-centur& of economic failure #ill be re3ersed in the foreseeable future. it is 3er& difficult to do an&thing about ineBualit& or "o3ert&. and that the region #ill continue in the direction of further economic and "olitical inde"endence . From 0?X* to )***. Not all of these economic "olicies and e/"eriments #ill succeed. 7oli3ia. %here #ould be far fe#er Me/icans #illing to ta5e the ris5s of illegal immigration to the 9nited !tates. From 0?+* to 0?X*. gro#th has totaled about . !o it is understandable that the main cause of 4atin 2merica’s "olitical changes is o3erloo5ed. drasticall&. 2s French President 'acBues Chirac noted during a recent 3isit to !outh 2merica. some regional integration. indeed historic change. or bet#een the "oor barrios of Caracas and the #ealth& estates of 2lta Mira Fum"s out at &ou.g. street children and beggars W #hereas economic gro#th is an abstract conce"t that most "eo"le do not follo#. Ecuador. In Dashington. that has ta5en "lace in 4atin 2merica o3er the last )I &earsJ the colla"se of economic gro#th. 4atin 2merica also has the #orst income ineBualit& in the #orld. 2fter all. but that too man& "eo"le ha3e been left behind and that "o3ert& and ineBualit& ha3e #orsened. leading to "olitical unrest. as com"ared to !outh Korea or %ai#an1. and o"-ed "ages of 2merica’s maFor ne#s"a"ers mostl& carr& the same themes. 7ut ineBualit& in the region has not increased dramaticall& o3er the last )I &ears. >f course. If #e ignore income distribution and Fust loo5 at income "er "erson W the most basic measure of economic "rogress that economists use W the last Buarter-centur& has been a disaster. it is at least "ossible to redistribute some of the increases in income and #ealth to#ards those #ho need it most. it gre# b& onl& ? "ercentN and for the first fi3e &ears of this decade ()***-)**I1.#ell as sorr& state of 9. there is actuall& much to be o"timistic about. 2nd #ithout gro#th. an& gains for the "oor must be ta5en from someone else W something that is difficult to do #ithout 3iolence. "er ca"ita income in 4atin 2merica gre# b& X) "ercent. di3ersification of trade and finance. and W follo#ing a series of re3olts at the ballot bo/.-4atin 2merican relations. If the econom& is gro#ing ra"idl&. e3en including social securit& s&stems in man& countries. %o find a gro#th "erformance in 4atin 2merica that is e3en close to failure of the last )I &ears.M @e added that the ne#l& elected leftist "residents cannot be cause for concern because the& #ere elected in free democratic elections. %his e/"lanation misses the most im"ortant. a mo3ement that is gro#ing. Public enter"rises ha3e been "ri3ati=ed. and that its hundreds of millions of "oor "eo"le #ill be among the main beneficiaries. and :ene=uela. there is no ob3ious reason that the& shouldn’t be the rele3ant le3el of com"arison. 7ut economic gro#th W #hich is "rimaril& defined b& increases in "roducti3it&. an' "robabl& irre"ersi!ly/ t at t e c&rrent sit&ation is trul& &nprece'ente' in the modern istory of the hemis"here. !ince these "re-0?X* gro#th rates #ere good but not s"ectacular (e. 7ra=il. 7ut from the "oint of 3ie# of the 3ast maForit& of the hemis"here. there is e3er& reason to belie3e that the changes of the last fe# &ears #ill not be re3ersed. Dhat reall& defines this as a ne# era is that the influence of the 9nited !tates in a region that #as until 3er& recentl& its Lbac5&ardM has "lummeted so rapi'ly. "ercent. Po3ert& and ineBualit& are glaringl& ob3ious in 4atin 2merica. Dhen it is not gro#ing. one has to go bac5 more than a centur&. "olic&-ma5ers engage in a s"ecial form of denial about 4atin 2merica’s economic failure. Me/ico #ould ha3e a3erage li3ing standards at the le3el of !"ain toda& if its econom& had sim"l& continued to gro# at the rate that it gre# "rior to 0?X*. . Furthermore. Causes and ConseBuencesJ 4atin 2merica’s 4ong-%erm Economic Failure %he most im"ortant cause of 4atin 2merica’s regional left#ard shift has been 3astl& misunderstoodJ it is the long-term economic gro#th failure in the region. %he contrast bet#een the lu/ur& condos in the 7arra da %iFuca neighborhood of Rio de 'aneiro and the fa3elas in the hillsides #here the "olice fear to tread. %his is something that e3en most critics of LneoliberalismM W a one-#ord descri"tion of the last Buarter-centur&’s economic reforms that is more common in 4atin 2merica than it is here W ha3e barel& mentioned. It is the main reason that #e li3e better than our grand"arents. for reasons discussed belo#. $there is a strong mo3ement in fa3or of democrac& in 4atin 2merica. Go3ernments are running tighter budgets and central ban5s are more inde"endent and tougher on inflation. 9rugua&. es"eciall& o3er such a long "eriod of time. %he long era of LneoliberalismM in 4atin 2merica has not &et come to an end W that end is Fust beginning.

!"ring )*0E. 2rgentina. the region is facing a fiscal bonus.!. LDI44 42%IN 2MERIC2 MI!! 9. 7ra=il. due to the increased 3alue of e/"orts ("rinci"all&. and :ene=uela. and :ene=uela. 0-a:I. Ecuador. %oda&. co""er.0) %he resulting global commodities boom has fueled economic gro#th in these countries o3er the last se3en &ears. and Peru. %ashma1 In t e economic and financial realm/ t e infl&ence of t e *nited (tates as also !ecome less significant but has far from disa""eared. %he "rimar& reason for this relati3e decline of influence is the rise of China and the economic gro#th of 7ra=il. Peru.en t e lea' economically in Latin America (a!atini/ 14 (Christo"her. Colombia. ban5s and the international financial institutions o3er so3ereign debt. and :ene=uela . @EGEM>NG6.*ns&staina!le – A+F Economic Infl&ence C ina as ta. 7ra=il. %his bonus has allo#ed countries li5e Ecuador. Issue ). and meat "roduced b& countries such as 2rgentina. Me/ico. :olume ++. to China1 and in3estment and commercial loans. a3eraging o3er I "ercent a &ear.allo#ing all of these countries to di3ersif& their e/"orts a#a& from the 9nited !tates and thus lessening the s#a& of the 9. oil. though not onl&. Peru. Editor in Chief of 2mericas guarterl& and !enior Cirector of Polic& at the 2mericas !ociet& and the Council of the 2mericas. China is the number one trade "artner for Chile and 7ra=il and ran5s in the to" fi3e for Peru.M 'ournal of International 2ffairs.!. so& beans. mar5et. though "erha"s unintentional. Chile. "olitical counter#eight in the region. %he first is an increase in the "rices and demand for commodities such as iron ore. much the #a& the& did in the 0?X*s. "g. Chile. .!. %he second effect has been the gro#ing im"ortance of Chinese mar5ets and in3estments to ra#-material e/"orting economies li5e 2rgentina. 7ra=il. China has become a regional commercial "resence and an im"licit. ProBuest. 2rgentina. and :ene=uela to a3oid "ri3ate credit mar5ets in the Dest and has reduced the "o#er of 9. Ecuador. China8s torrid economic gro#th o3er the last decade has had three effects. China is also the fastest gro#ing source of foreign direct in3estment in countries as "oliticall& di3erse as 2rgentina. %hird.

7oli3ia. %he era in #hich the 9nited !tates could unilaterall& send in its marines to occu"& a countr& has ended. %e/as 2 P M 9ni3ersit&Kings3ille. su""ort through securit& and technical coo"eration has hel"ed go3ernments in Colombia.$2 @ot Cold Dar$ -. %he 9nited !tates8 militar& dominance o3er the hemis"here had the benefit of "re3enting the need for strong national militaries that could th#art outside inter3ention (though too often those militaries di3erted their attentions to meddling in domestic "olitics and "ursuing "olitical o""onents1.C."df1 !M ***NoteF Cran'all is citing istorian Hal Bran's G)rofessor of )&!lic )olicy an' History at D&.!. @istoricall&.!. Mario E. 2NC %@E F9%9RE >F 9. "o#er has been e/ercised and has #or5ed in the Destern @emis"here.. hegemon&. interests. 2ssociate Professor of Political !cience. Editor in Chief of 2mericas guarterl& and !enior Cirector of Polic& at the 2mericas !ociet& and the Council of the 2mericas. >f these three main sources of "o#er. and di"lomatic. L42%IN 2MERIC2N PER!PEC%I:EJ MERC>!9R. or El !al3ador during roughl& the same &ears. ProBuest. %ilitary po#er 'oesnCt 'etermine t e effecti"eness of *2(2 infl&ence in t e region --. 9. #e need to consider in #hat #a&s 9. 9ni3ersit& of Chicago. #hile often effecti3e in hel"ing defeat the m&riad Mar/ist insurgencies in the region. economic and financial.!. @EGEM>NG IN 42%IN 2MERIC2.!. Ce"artment of Cefense in )**? and Cirector for 2ndean 2ffairs at the National !ecurit& Council in )*0*-00 -. Februar& )**. Issue ). militar& ca"abilities and its "otential com"etitors is so #ide that there is no danger of $hegemonic ri3alr&$ (hegemonic #ars1 and $the onl& o"tions a3ailable to second-tier states Zsuch as 7ra=ilR are to band#agon #ith the "olar "o#er Zthe 9nited !tatesR . and armed forces #ith limited offensi3e ca"abilities also reduced the ris5 of border conflicts.!.e3 7rands concludes that. %ashma1 9nderstanding the Realities of 9.Princi"al Cirector for the Destern @emis"here at the 9. the first is one of the least rele3ant toda&.!.*ns&staina!le – A+F %ilitary Infl&ence (&staining lea'ers ip "ia military po#er fails (a!atini/ 14 (Christo"her. the 9!-su""orted counter-insurgencies "ro3ed detrimental to democratic reform’ and hel"ed "ro3o5e an ideological and di"lomatic bac5lash that damaged Dashington’s standing in the region.No3ember E*th.!. Dilliam Dohlforth argues that the ga" bet#een 9.!. !"ring )*0E. (Russell Crandall W associate "rofessor of International Politics at Ca3ison College -. LDI44 42%IN 2MERIC2 MI!! 9..!. Dt er Latin American co&ntries pro"e –*( s&pporte' ins&rgencies fail Cran'all 1. )*0) ###E.. le/is. for e/am"le.!.'.M )( Fordham Int8l 4. Po#er %oda& in 4atin 2merica %o get a real measure of #here the 9nited !tates stands toda&. %@E FREE %R2CE 2RE2 >F %@E 2MERIC2!. 7rands might ha3e added that the e/tent to #hich a 9!-manufactured counter-insurgenc& ^blo#bac5’ occurred de"ended on each case at hand. @EGEM>NG6. 0*)?. 9. Me/ico. "g.!.edu-cms-Cocuments-2cademics-Ce"artments-Political_)*!cience-@ot _)*Cold_)*Dar. Realist scholars tend to eBuate hegemon& #ith militar& "o#er. %ashma1 Part of the ambiguit& surrounding the issue of 9.da3idson. and to those should be added the admittedl& 3ague factors of moral and as"irational "o#er. and Central 2merica in their battles #ith organi=ed narcotraffic5ers and criminal grou"s. 2t the same time. >ne need onl& see the fraught debate o3er actual 9. For e/am"le. similar anti-insurgent training and assistance in Colombia. militar& in3ol3ement in Me/ico8s recent #ar on narcotraffic5ers to reali=e that militar& inter3ention (e3en at the in3itation of the local go3ernment1 in 4atin 2merican countries is conditioned on international and domestic "olitics and norms..!. Ph.. 0-a:I. or at least to ta5e no action that could incur its focused enmit&.an' if it 'i'/ egemony is 'eclining any#ays Carran6a/ E (Cr. hegemon& in 4atin 2merica stems from the use of different definitions of international hegemon& in contem"orar& literature. Get e3en during the era of 9.$ XI 2 better definition of hegemon& is the one "ro3ided b& 2ntonio Gramsci. 4atin 2merican go3ernments did not need to #orr& about fending e/tra-hemis"heric threats than5s to 9. :olume ++. >ne could ma5e a reasonable argument that 9! counterinsurgenc& training and su""ort in Guatemala in the 0?+*s and 0?(*s had a far more morall& and strategicall& dubious outcome than. #hich combines the conce"ts of coercion (militar& force1 and consent . "o#er has come from three main sourcesJ militar&.M 'ournal of International 2ffairs. 4atin 2merican countries benefited from the umbrella of 9! securit&.

as in the case of the 9. 7ra=il. 7ush8s go-it-alone foreign "olic& #hich is un#ittingl& encouraging the emergence of anti-9. an F%22 a la carte gi3es the 9nited !tates enough room to e/ercise its considerable structural "o#er o3er smaller 4atin 2merican countries. in other #ords hegemon& "rotected b& the armor of coercion.$ X+ For Gramsci. coalitions .8 in3asion of IraB. X? >n the other hand. If one a""lies Gramsci8s definition of hegemon& to 9nited !tates-4atin 2merican relations. Curing 7ush8s administration. %he 7ush administration has a tendenc& to use force #ithout (or #ith 3er& little1 consent.(ideological leadershi"1 as in the often Buoted eBuationJ $!tate O "olitical societ& Y ci3il societ&.!. E3en if one uses a realist. hegemon&. hegemon& cannot be based onl& on sheer force. attem"t to ha3e its #a& on the dee" integration agenda #ithout ma5ing concessions regarding agricultural subsidies. #hich #as strongl& o""osed in Euro"e and 4atin 2merica.$ XX the Miami %rade Ministerial Meeting sho#s that *2(2 egemony in Latin America is 'eclining .!. narro# definition of hegemon& as $the "o#er of one state to enforce its #ill o3er others. X( Robert ]oellic58s strong-arms trade strateg& after the Cancun debacle fits nicel& in George D. ?* .!. such as the grou" of Zb0*I?R t#ent&-t#o de3elo"ing nations at Cancun ($G-))$1 that see5 to redefine the rules of the game of globali=ation. managed to bloc5 the 9. it becomes clear that the 7ush administration has failed to e/ercise ideological leadershi" in the F%22 negotiations. such as Panama and the Cominican Re"ublic. there has been a structural shift in the balance bet#een force and consent in the e/ercise of 9. su""orted b& most 4atin 2merican trade ministers.!.

.

2le/ander 7rand is 4ecturer and Post-Coc Researcher at the Ce"artment of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Main=. S founded in 0?. areS efforts of 4atin 2merican emanci"ation and balancing. 2s mentioned earlier. In com"arison. declaring a ne# S era of good neighborhood "olic&. (*. #ith the aim to "romote hemis"heric coo"eration #as the creation of the !ummit of the 2mericas.."df. disa""ointment soon arose because actions did notS follo# #ords (Gandasegui )*001. S insisted on e/cluding Cuba also from the ne/t summit. S "eo"le and go3ernments in 4atin 2merica. Ecuador ofTciall& in order to "rotest against the e/clusion of Cuba.S at the Fourth !ummit in Mar del Plata.X. held 0??. 2lthough this #as #idel& "ercei3ed as "ositi3e b& the media. %he dri3ing force behind the >2! #as and still is the 9.!. #as initiated b& 7ill Clinton. in Miami. Ecuador and Nicaragua didS not "artici"ate. %his might ha3e S "ro3ided both China and 7ra=il #ith the o""ortunit& to strengthen ties #ith 4atin 2mericanS countries 3is-e-3is the 9. %he aim of S the summit #as to "romote democrac& and mar5ets. therefore Cuba #as and S is e/cluded. 9ni3ersit& of Erfurt.. !usan McE#en-Fial is 4ecturer at the Ce"artment of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Main=. institutional inno3ations in the hemis"here ha3e been limited S to the abo3e mentioned bilateral trade treaties and the securit& initiati3es. L7RICs and 9. es"eciall& for theS Cuban "olic& and for the #ar on drugs.-)*0). 9. %he ne/t summit in )**? inS %rinidad and %obago #as used b& 7arac5 >bama to start a charm offensi3e. the "residents of :ene=uela..!. 2ndrea Ribeiro @offmann is 4ecturer at the Dill& 7randt !chool of Public Polic&. u"holding the democrac& clause of theS meeting.!."olitics.FF1 %he main institutional arena in 4atin 2merica is the >rgani=ation of 2merican !tates (>2!1. es"eciall& the F%22.!. 2s Rahl ]ibechi.Main= Pa"ers on International and Euro"ean Politics (MPIEP1 Pa"er No.uni-main=.!. %his dissent inhibited a Tnal declaration.Alliance DA – Generic – *ni1&eness Wall 9egional organi6ations are on t e rise #it t e 'ecline of t e *( in Latin America Bran' et al 1.S 2 more recent institutional inno3ation on behalf of the 9. Colombia. %he last summit in Cartagena.de-files-)*0)-0*-m"ie"*. htt"J--international.!. %he 9. .!. %he Trst summit. @egemon&J %heoretical ReVections on !hifting Po#er Patterns and Em"irical E3idence from 4atin 2mericaM. !e3eral 4atin 2merican states critici=ed the 9. . S 2side from this initiati3e. in 2"ril )*0) clearl&S sho#ed this disa""ointment. Dolfgang Muno is :isiting Professor of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Erfurt. meetings of the head ofS states and go3ernments of all democratic countries of the hemis"here. a Fournalist of Me/ico’sS centre-left 4a 'ornada ne#s"a"er said in this regardJ M%he creation of the Communit& of 4atinS 2merican and Caribbean !tates is "art of a global and continental shift. the F%22 "racticall& died. characterised b& theS 'ecline of *2(2 egemony and the rise of a grou" of regional !locs that form "art of the ne#S global balanceM (]ibechi )*0*1. S se3eral institutional inno3ations li5e %ercos&r/ *NA(*9/ ALBA/ an' =&st recently CELAC.

7oli3ia and Cuba are $satellites$ of Mr. influence declines.!. interests. Chij3e= and that $@onduras and Paragua& ma& be s#inging his #a&$ o3erstated Mr. Nicaragua.!. leading to a misguided "olic& "rescri"tion.!. 4atin 2merican nations are understandabl& di3ersif&ing their alliances and Foc5e&ing to ad3ance their interests. the gro#ing "artici"ation of oncemarginali=ed grou"s in the "olitical "rocess in :ene=uela. Chij3e=8s influence and glossed o3er fundamental differences among these countries. )**X. interests.!. 4atin 2merica is indeed going through "rofound changes.but onl& if it resists m&o"ic. Dhile the erosion of democratic chec5s and balances is troubling.@o#e3er tem"ting it might be for Dashington to cut off trade "references and aid to go3ernments that $dismantle democratic institutions and attac5 9. %he 9nited !tates can hel" sha"e an en3ironment more congenial to its interests -. but the choice is not bet#een ignoring the region and disci"lining go3ernments that resist 9. "olicies .!. some of #hich are more salutar& than others. member of the Council on Foreign Relations (Michael. relations #ith 4atin 2merica. 2s "resident. 7oli3ia and Ecuador is a #elcome trend. standing in 4atin 2merica. Wall Decline in *( lea'ers ip in Latin America allo#s for t e formation of alliances ( ifter/ 8 – :ice President for Polic&. %he Dashington Post. %he editorial8s assertion that Ecuador. b& alienating the 9nited !tates from regional allies such as 7ra=il and Chile #hile fostering anti-2merican sentiment among the hundreds of thousands #ho #ould lose their li3elihoods. + editorial $2 Choice for 4atin 2merica$ described the regional situation in e/cessi3el& star5 terms.Alliance DA – Generic – Lin. self-defeating measures and sta&s engaged e3en in unfriendl& "laces.$ it is hard to see ho# such "uniti3e measures #ould im"ro3e 9. >n the contrar&. 2s 9. Inter-2merican Cialogue in Dashington. 7arac5 >bama or 'ohn McCain #ill ho"efull& tr& to re"air 9. LNo Da& to Influence 4atin 2merica. >ctober ?th.!. 2dFunct Professor of 4atin 2merican !tudies at Georgeto#n 9ni3ersit&8s !chool of Foreign !er3ice. It is im"ortant not to e/aggerate :ene=uelan President @ugo Chij3e=8s s#a& in the region. . these mo3es #ould undermine 9. 4e/isNe/is1 --@24 %he >ct. @a""il&. there is a middle ground.

oil "rices rose as a result of increased demand caused b& the IraB #ar.!. #hile in 7ra=il. 2lthough there has been a decline in 9. insurrections demanded the remo3al of !anche= de 4o=ada. Cictatorshi"s secured financial su""ort through eas& access to loans from the Dorld 7an5 and the International Monetar& Fund. "articularl& in the #a5e of :ene=uelan President @ugo Cha3e=’s death. and "o3ert& in the region. China a""eared as an alternati3e mar5et for the sale of ra# materials from 4atin 2merica. 7oli3ia. 2s these social mo3ements found solidarit&. socialist democratic and "o"ular mo3ement.!. u"risings "re3ented the "ri3ati=ation of oil and gas industries. and immigration "roblems are #orth ma5ing Foint efforts to resol3e. %he colla"se of the !o3iet 9nion dee"ened the economic crisis in Cuba. "olicies in the region. influence in the region. &et the& still o"erate there. efforts to destabili=e the go3ernment of @ugo Cha3e= #ere unsuccessful and instead strengthened the morale of leftist mo3ements across the region. %ransnational organi=ed crime. the militar& rulers #ere #illing to cede some "o#er to semi-democratic regimes controlled b& elites in e/change for the irre3ersibilit& of "ri3ati=ation and res"ect for the status of the militar&. %he& #ill li5el& continue to focus on im"lementing their leftist discourse. unem"lo&ment. Relations bet#een the 9nited !tates and 4atin 2merica ha3e e/"erienced c&clical u"s and do#ns. changing the d&namics in the hemis"here. President Fernando @enriBue Cardoso "ri3ati=ed state com"anies that generated significant re3enue for the countr&. 9. gi3ing it an o""ortunit& to "ush for further "ri3ati=ation. and neoliberal "olicies fa3ored cor"orations at the e/"ense of disad3antaged "o"ulations. Citi=ens demanded free elections and social im"ro3ements. not onl& for its abilit& to "ro3ide an alternati3e to 9.!. %his is an ad3antage for the 9nited !tates. %he 9nited !tates needed to su""ress e3er& nationalist. In Ecuador.’s "ro"osal to remo3e barriers to trade through the Free %rade 2rea of the 2mericas (F%221 #as subseBuentl& reFected b& :ene=uela.!. o3er fears of the s"read of Communism in its bac5&ard. %he 9. 9. %he economic su""ort from 9nited !tates for certain lo&al grou"s brought great ineBualities. In 2rgentina. #hich "ri3ileged sub-regional energ& agreements and bro5e contracts #ith 2merican oil com"anies as the decade "rogressed. and free mar5et "olicies had ban5ru"ted farmers. %he 2lliance "osed as a ne# model.!. @o#e3er. %he 9nited !tates is :ene=uela’s to" commercial "artner. %he election of !al3ador 2llende in Chile. Ironicall&.ch-Cigital-4ibrar&-2rticles-Cetail-6idO0+.Ci"lomatic Courier for the International Relations and !ecurit& Net#or5 $%he 9! Must Re-e3aluate its Foreign Polic& in 4atin 2merica$ Ma& E0st )*0E ###. and the middle class lost their sa3ings. mar5ets. 2t the hemis"heric le3el. Geogra"hicall&. #ith the "ur"ose being international coo"eration based on the idea of social and economic integration of 4atin 2merica and the Caribbean countries. %hese "olicies "ro3o5ed action from social mo3ements aligned #ith the "oor. !ubseBuentl&.eth=. 2cce"ting this realit& is the beginning to im"ro3ing relations. Dashington re-established its "o#er in the 0?(*s b& re3o5ing an& "olic& that interfered #ith 9.!. should encourage the strengthening of "olitical and economic ties in the 2mericas as #ell as "romoting com"liance of international . Curing the 0?+*s. Curing the 0?X*s social u"hea3als occurred against Pinochet’s militar& dictatorshi" in Chile and 2rgentina’s militar& Funta.Alliance DA – Generic – LA (ta!ility Impact 9egional partners ips are t e !est #ay to co&nter pro!lems in t e region Al"arao 14 (4i=a %orres 2l3arado -. %he financial crisis in 2rgentina led to the o3erthro# of 2ntonio Ce la Rua. as occurred in 7oli3ia #ith the gas com"anies and in :ene=uela #ith the oil com"an&. 2rgentina. but 4atin 2merican leftist mo3ements should e3aluate themsel3es and ta5e actions to if the& are to a3oid a return of neoliberal "olicies of the 0??*s. and Me/ico became an obstacle for the 9nited !tates. amid economic turmoil. Ceregulation destro&ed the ban5s.!. influence #as #ea5ened. so there #ill al#a&s be a relationshi" of one sort or another. %he 9nited !tates #ill continue to see5 to e/ert its influence o3er the region. None of the "romises of better standards of li3ing from neo-liberal "olicies had materiali=ed. oil im"orts. the 9. the 9nited !tates and 4atin 2merica are lin5ed and ha3e a natural shared mar5et. %he su"remac& of the 9nited !tates dee"ened in the 0??*s. the "easant mo3ement led to the election of s&ndical leader 4ula Ca !il3a as President.!. 7oli3ia.!. 4eftist go3ernments #ill ha3e to address challenges such as those caused b& social di3isions and economic ineBualit&. as :ene=uela su""lies 0) "ercent of 9. In 7ra=il. regional leaders either nationali=ed industries or bro5e agreements #ith international oil cor"orations or others re3ol3ing around natural resources. but also because oil re3enues had enabled the countr& ta5e Cuba’s "lace in financing an anti-im"erialist crusade across the continent. a staunch follo#er of Dashington’s "olicies. #hereb& the 9. #hether through future "lans for the "lacement of militar& bases or the "romotion of bilateral trade agreements.!. oil com"anies ha3e seen their actions limited. In both cases. Ecuador.!. #as allo#ed access to ra# materials and other ser3ices at 3er& lo# "rices. In :ene=uela. President Carlos !alinas in Me/ico "ri3ati=ed 00* enter"rises and signed the North 2merican Free %rade 2greement (N2F%21 #ith the 9nited !tates.’s influence in the Destern @emis"here as it #as focused its efforts on dual #ar fronts on the other side of the globe. reducing de"endence on 9. 2472 (7oli3arian 2lliance for the 2mericas1 #as born as a counter"art to the F%22.isn. it is im"ortant to consider that neoliberal "hiloso"hies are also still "er3asi3e in man& countries of 4atin 2merica. In :ene=uela. #hich reduced its su""ort for leftist mo3ements in 4atin 2merica. "olitical changes and social mo3ements challenged the structural basis of 9nited !tates’ hegemon& in the hemis"here. 2ll that said. its "resence is still there. interests in the region b& su""orting militar& figures. !ubseBuentl&. ho# can the 9nited !tates im"ro3e its foreign "olic& to#ards 4atin 2merica6 %here are man& "roblems in the region that should be faced together. President Carlos Menem "ri3ati=ed "ublic enter"rises. and 7ra=il in the mid-)***s. &et constantl& e3ol3ing. Failed attem"ts b& the 9nited !tates to destabili=e Cha3e=’s administration radicali=ed the :ene=uelan go3ernment8s "osition.E(*PlngOen1 !M @istoricall&. relations bet#een 4atin 2merica and the 9nited !tates ha3e been com"le/ . :ene=uela became an im"ortant counter#eight to the 9nited !tates. In 7oli3ia. for e/am"le. the arri3al of Peronism in 2rgentina. such as the transition to ci3ilian rule and direct "o"ular elections. further hel"ing :ene=uela in this mission and #ea5ening the 9. 9.!. drug traffic5ing. and the de3elo"ment of relations bet#een nationalist go3ernments of the time such as Peru.

0E*-0E0. Discovering the Americas: The Evolution of Canadian Foreign Policy Towards Latin America . and uncontrolled "o"ulation gro#th and migration. If the& are based on coo"eration. drug traffic5ing and organi=ed crime. %his document describes the ne# conce"t of multidimensional securit&. %he 9nited !tates should ta5e acti3e "art in establishing institutional net#or5s through #hich "olicies can be coordinated. strategic and economic interests. . stimulate fair trade agreements. en3ironmental degradation. Perce"tions of declining 9. Relations bet#een the 9nited !tates and 4atin 2merica are com"le/ and changing.!. 2s such. natural resource and food scarcit&. due to the #ildl& ineBuitable di3isions of #ealth in some 9. and so on W #ere lin5ed to the "ros"ect of e/"losi3e e3ents occurring in the hemis"here. College. in addition to "olitical re"ression. %hese are all "ro"osals that #ould certainl& hel" to create better relations bet#een the states of the Destern @emis"here.!. the Central 2merican imbroglio #as 3ie#ed as a fuse #hich could ignite a catacl&smic "rocess throughout the region. + at sol"es glo!al #arfare 9oc lin/ 0E Z'ames Francis. securit& considerations #ere "erha"s more im"ortant. must be #illing to re-e3aluate its foreign "olic& and "ers"ecti3es to#ard the rest of the Destern @emis"here. hegemon& in the 2mericas.commitments as a sign of #illingness to im"ro3e relations. the& can become stronger. %here are man& hemis"heric con3entions that "ro3ide the legal frame#or5 to begin to #or5 together against negati3e outcomes. influence in the region W #hich had some credibilit& in 0?(?-0?X. anti-2merican sentiment "roduced b& decades of subFugation to 9. and through these "romote the e/"ansion of em"lo&ment o""ortunities for the "o"ulation.!. underde3elo"ment. and encourage the "rotection of the hemis"here against drug traffic5ing and organi=ed crime.!. mounting e/ternal debt. and incor"orates as ne# threats issues such as terrorism. might "reoccu"& Dashington to the e/tent that the 9nited !tates #ould be unable to "erform adeBuatel& its im"ortant hegemonic role in the international arena W a concern e/"ressed b& the director of research for Canada’s !tanding Committee Re"ort on Central 2merica. It #as feared that s&c a pre'icament co&l' generate increase' global instability an' "erha"s e3en a hegemonic war. 2n e/am"le is the Ceclaration on !ecurit& in the 2mericas signed b& the countries of the hemis"here in )**E. client states in 4atin 2merica. Professor of Political !cience at >5anagan 9. as #ill be discussed in the ne/t cha"ter.!. beginning in Central 2merica and s"reading else#here in 4atin 2merica. %his is one of the moti3ations #hich led Canada to become in3ol3ed in efforts at regional conflict resolution. #ith res"ect to the "rinci"les of self-determination and non-inter3ention. instabilit& created b& a regional #ar . 2nal&sts at the time #orried that in a #orstcase scenario. @ence. Da5e Earl& 7ird FileR Dhile there #ere economic moti3ations for Canadian "olic& in Central 2merica. such as Contadora. Canada "ossessed an interest in "romoting stabilit& in the face of a "otential decline of 9. the 9.

%ur5s and Caicos Islands. %he last ten &ears ha3e #itnessed the emergence of regional and multilateral "o#ers see5ing to assert regional di"lomatic "o#er. 7ra=il. Public "olic& addressing human needs is intended to usur" free-mar5et e/change for "rofit. Issues ) P E. Cuba.M International 'ournal of Cuban !tudies. %he 2472 agenda contains a hemis"herical affiliation to address common regional needs forJ oil-"etroleum. #hich includes 7oli3ia. b1J hence. e3olutionar& "rocess to effect "rogress. %he challenge is not sim"l& to institutionall& challenge 9nited !tates8 mar5et hegemon& and com"etiti3e ad3antage. 2t the same time. e3olutionar& initiati3e.!.ey to a transition a#ay from neoli!eralism Cole/ 11 (Ken. instruction and education. if not to s"ecificall& reduce the role of the 9 nited !tates in intra-regional di"lomac&. LDI44 42%IN 2MERIC2 MI!! 9. ProBuest. etc. 7ra=il has sought a greater regional and e3en global role. natural gas. P>>R PE>P4E 2NC N2%9RE IN%> CE:E4>PMEN%R . Colombia. information and the media. %ashma1 %he "olitical and ideological sta5es could not be higher. and additionall& includes 2rgentina. s"ort. such as Cuba8s >"eracion Milagro to tac5le o"hthalmic "roblems. %he most ob3ious and "ointed e/am"le is the 7oli3arian 2lliance for the Peo"les of our 2mericas (24721 formed b& former President of :ene=uela @ugo Cha3e=. !ummer-2utumn )*00. #hich is financial globalisation. and are "oliticall&. "g. e/erting its ne#found di"lomatic and economic muscle. to the ad3antage of los humildes--the "oor and disad3antaged masses of 4atin 2merica -->ur 2merica (see Cole )*0*a. 'amaica. Nicaragua. :arious institutional com"onents of the 2472 "rocess regionall& addressJ "etroleum (PE%R>!9R1N media (%E4E!9R1N education (9ni3ersidad del !ur1N international credit (the 2472 7an51N a regional seed ban5 and 2gro-Ecolog& !chool organised b& 7ra=il8s 4andless Dor5ers Mo3ementN regional health initiati3es. %he richer countries that ha3e s"earheaded 9N2!9R (such as 7ra=il and 2rgentina1. #ill continue to e/"edientl& ta5e economic ad3antage of 2472 initiati3es1. Ecuador. and a "lanned regional natural gas distribution s&stem (Gasducto del !ur1. Montserrat. Grenada. :olume ++. International Institute for the !tud& of Cuba at 4ondon Metro"olitan 9ni3ersit&. "rogressi3e. often as an alternati3e to 9. Gu&ana. 0-a:I. Paragua& and 9rugua&. 7eli=e. culture. 2472 is a region-#ide. LEC>FEMIN!MJ %>D2RC! IN%EGR2%ING %@E C>NCERN! >F D>MEN.Alliance DA – ALBA – 1NC Decline of *2(2 infl&ence in Latin America promotes t e 'e"elopment of ne# organi6ations --. and :ene=uela among others in a bloc 3o#ed to o""ose a no#-defunct "lan to establish a hemis"here-#ide free-trade agreement. to direct and harness the global di3ision of labour of the t#ent&-first centur& to enhance human "otentials and indi3iduals8 #ell-being. !aint 4ucia. !uriname. @onorar& Research Fello#. (see Cole )**X1. %ashma1 %he 9nited !tates8 reduced abilit& to unilaterall& get #hat it #ants in the hemis"here is alread& sha"ing 4atin 2merican countries8 calculations of domestic and foreign "olicies and the formation of multilateral alliances.!. %he resol3e is to eliminate the ca"italist organisation of social e/istence itself. "g. health. !"ring )*0E. Issue ).s e@tinction N anenge > Z'&tte Masters ` 9 !outh 2frica.E + atCs . !t Kitts and Ne3is. 00+. and 4atin 2merican medical schools in @a3ana and Caracas. @EGEM>NG6. influence in matters as di3erse as the threat of "olitical u"hea3al in :ene=uela to the 9N dri3e to sanction Iran for its nuclear ambitions. %he continental reach of 2472 e/tends be&ond the eight member states. are unli5el& to become full members of 2472 an& time soon (although. as its econom& rebounded Buic5l& and strongl& from the )**( global financial crisis until )*0). the 7ahamas. 7ritish :irgin Islands. :olume E.specifically ALBA (a!atini/ 14 (Christo"her. LProgress into the )0st Centur&J the 7oli3arian 2lliance for the Peo"les of >ur 2merica. regional.e' neoli!eral e@pansions ris. *nc ec. as #ith 9N2!9R. the inclusion of non-member 4atin 2merican countries to begin to la& the foundations of a longterm. ideologicall& and culturall& bonded to a ca"italist social consciousness. e@tirpating t e neoli!eral/ capitalist pro=ect . no doubt. Editor in Chief of 2mericas guarterl& and !enior Cirector of Polic& at the 2mericas !ociet& and the Council of the 2mericas.M 'ournal of International 2ffairs. %he 7oli3arian 2lliance for the Peo"les of >ur 2merica is a union of "oor countries challenging the o""ressi3e conseBuences of (uneBual1 mar5et e/change and economic e/"loitation.

It is highl& li5el& that one ma& add more crises to these four. Ces"ite the e/istence of de3elo"ment aid for more than half a centur&. traditional "eo"les. %he second crisis is the increasing number of "eo"le afflicted #ith hunger and "o3ert&. It gi3es a gloom& "icture of #hat $"rogress$ and its focus on economic gro#th has meant for #omen. 2 good "lace to start a discussion about domination of #omen. destruction of ecos&stems and e/tinction of s"ecies are increasing at such a rate that the bios"here is under threat . %he categori=ation is ins"ired b& Paul E5ins and his 0??) boo5 $2 ne# #orld orderN grassroots mo3ements for global change$. %he third crisis is the en3ironmental degradation. industrialisation and its economic acti3ities ha3e been directl& lin5ed to increased scarcit& of natural resources and generation of "ollution. Moderni=ation. E5ins8s di3ision is suitable for the "resent "ur"ose. It is a #orld #here a small minorit& li3e in material lu/ur&. "oor "eo"le and the natural en3ironment. tribal "eo"les. !ince the mid 0?(*. ho#e3er. dominated b& the global s&stem of economic de3elo"ment im"osed b& the North. Instead. militarism. economic de3elo"ment generated a 3iolent. faced #ith its negati3e side effects and the real threat of e/tinction. %he first crisis is the s"read of nuclear and other #ea"ons of mass destruction . (E5ins 0??)J 01. "eo"le of colour and materiall& "oor "eo"le (called #omen and >thers1.2lthough the #orld on a3erage generates more and more #ealth. Instead. %hese crises ha3e the "otential to destro& #hole ecos&stems and to e/tinct the human race. >thers and nature and to sho# ho# the domination of #omen and >thers is interconnected #ith the domination of nature . #hich increases global tem"eratures and degrades soils. one must conclude that some#here along the #a& $"rogress$ #ent astra&. . Instead of material "lent&. %he& are forced to sur3i3e from degraded en3ironmentsN the& li3e #ithout "ersonal or social securit&N the& %here is toda& an increasing critiBue of economic de3elo"ment. Pollution. %he latter threat is of great significance. #hich "re3ents "eo"le from de3elo"ing their "otential. together #ith nature. #hile millions of "eo"le li3e in miser&. It is this scenario. @o#e3er. the %hird Dorld seems not to be $catching u"$ #ith the First Dorld. unhealth& and uneBual #orld. %hese "oor "eo"le are marginali=ed b& the global economic s&stem. %he maForit& of these "eo"le are #omen. negati3e im"acts ha3e been ordered into four crises. #ith hunger. the riches do not a""ear to $tric5le do#n$ to the "oor and im"ro3e their material #ell-being. Most "eo"le belie3ed that moderni=ation of the #orld #ould im"ro3e material #ell-being for all. #hether it ta5es "lace in the North or in the !outh. malnutrition and sic5nessN and the& ha3e no "ossibilit& to s"ea5 u" for themsel3es and demand a fair share of the #orld8s resources. %he o3erall aim is conseBuentl& to discuss the unFustified domination of #omen. the critiBue of global economic acti3ities has intensified due to the escalating deterioration of the natural en3ironment. In it. li3e in abFect "o3ert&. >thers and nature is to disclose ho# the& dis"ro"ortionatel& must carr& the negati3e effects from global economic de3elo"ment. or categori=e them differentl&. #hich is the subFect of the dissertation. %he fourth crisis is re"ression and denial of fundamental human rights b& go3ernments. #ater. E5ins argues that humanit& is faced #ith four interloc5ed crises of un"recedented magnitude. because #ithout a health& en3ironment human beings and animals #ill not be able to sur3i3e. %he& are. %he 3arious com"le/ and inter-connected. %he belo# discussion is therefore meant to gi3e an idea of the $fli"-side$ of modernisation. lands. children. dictatorshi" and human re"ression is multi"lied . together #ith the high le3el of militar& s"ending. forests and air . "o3ert& and economic ineBualit& is gro#ing.

"g. Wall Lac.Alliance DA – ALBA – Lin. %ashma1 Dith the end of 9. Issue E. Cha3e=. :olume ?*. Wit t e *nited (tates less in"ol"e' in t e region/ t e ALBA !loc #ill continue to "la& its cherished role as di"lomatic s"oiler and its members #ill face far fe#er constraints on o# ra'ically t ey transform t eir societies2 . Contending that 4atin 2merica remains shac5led b& the im"erial 9nited !tates and its lac5e&s at the Dorld 7an5 and the International Monetar& Fund. L%he Post2merican @emis"hereJ Po#er and Politics in an 2utonomous 4atin 2merica.!. hegemon& in 4atin 2merica. Russia. members of this grou" remain committed to a nonaligned di"lomac& and see5 friendshi"s #ith the go3ernments of such countries as Iran. and.M Foreign 2ffairs. China. 2ssociate Professor of Political !cience at Ca3dison College. XE. and Nicaragua8s Caniel >rtega -ha3e ta5en the o""ortunit& to e/"and their o#n influence. of *2(2 egemony in t e region cataly6es t e 'e"elopment of ALBA Cran'all/ 11 (Russell. Cuba8s Fidel and Raul Castro. the region8s authoritarians -:ene=uela8s Cha3e=. to some e/tent. Ma&-'une )*00. a band of leftist go3ernments led b& :ene=uela. the Castro brothers. and >rtega form "art of the 7oli3arian 2lliance for the 2mericas (24721.

00+. Dith globalisation and the emergence of an international di3ision of labour and a 8borderless class s&stem8. 2uc5land. but a borderless class s&stem8 (Fau/ )**+J 01-. is being harnessed to enhance indi3iduals8 #ell-being. not as it has de3elo"ed on its o#n foundations. :olume E0. !ummer-2utumn )*00. %a&lor and Francis. it is also a "rocess of building em"ath& and creating solidarit&.'istinct from past attempts %iller/ 1? (Rosalie. %he %hird Dorld 2""roaches to International 4a# (%D2I41 mo3ement has consistentl& #or5ed to#ards "roducing a credible critiBue of international la#. ad3ancing the ethics of human e/istence. #e argue that a uniBue !outh 2merican treat& 5no#n as 2472Hthe 7oli3arian 2lliance for the 2mericasH"uts for#ard a cohesi3e counter-3ision of international la# rooted in notions of com"lementarit& and human solidarit&. #hich "resages human consciousness (and social organisation1 e3ol3ing to a higher "laneJ Dhat #e ha3e to deal #ith here is a communist societ&. necessaril& are international in sco"e. #hat 'eff Fau/ denotes as a 8global class8--8globali=ation. It is an en'ea"o&r to a'"ance social conscio&sness and to raise citi=ens8 a#areness of cultural inFustice to a glo!al le"el2 Concomitantl&. 2472 is unli5el& to "ose much of a challenge to the structural imbalances that "ermeate global societ&. initiati3e. is e/hausted #ith the machinations of international mar5et e/change. @onorar& Research Fello#. %he struggle to challenge and change the conditioning circumstances of social e/istence.M %hird Dorld guarterl&. 2472. "g. %ashma1 In this article. confronting the structural imbalances that "ermeate contem"orar& global societ&. Issues ) P E. economic crises. "rimaril& b& identif&ing "rocedures and structures inFurious to %hird Dorld states and "eo"les. Get. lecturer in la#. an emergent. on its o#n. globalised. %he e/"onential gro#th in "roducti3e "otential. Fust as it emerges from ca"italist societ&N #hich is thus in e3er& res"ect.s a t ir' #orl' mo"ement against t e egemonic an' neoli!eral #orl' or'er --. 9ni3ersit& of 2uc5land and #as "re3iousl& at >sgoode @all 4a# !chool and Gor5 9ni3ersit&. E. the "olitical hegemon& of the ruling order in ca"italist societ& . Mohsen al 2ttar. but. %he "olitical and economic hegemon& of this global ruling class has been debilitated b& successi3e. increases e/"loitation and e/acerbates the social and economic "redicament of ca"ital accumulation. in a globalised #orld. (Karl Mar/ 0?().is under challenge. see5s to offer an alternati3e to the 8"remises no# in e/istence8. morall& and intellectuall&. %ashma1 2s human "otential. des"ite decades of struggle. indi3iduals8 struggles to realise their social "otentials are merging into a 8borderless class struggle8. it a""ears to "ossess significant democratic "otential. De further argue that %hird Dorld 2""roaches to International 4a# (%D2I41 scholars might use this initiati3e as a s"ringboard to "ush for#ard a long-o3erdue reform of the international legal regime. dee"ening.(-E+E. still stam"ed #ith the birth mar5s of the old societ& from #hose #omb it emerges. L%o#ards an Emanci"ator& International 4a#J the 7oli3arian reconstruction. %he inFustice of social "roduction in the ser3ice of "ri3ate enter"rise becomes e3er more a""arent. LProgress into the )0st Centur&J the 7oli3arian 2lliance for the Peo"les of >ur 2merica. Dith both scholarl& and "o"ular su""ort. on the contrar&. as does material .Alliance DA – ALBA – Neoli! Impact – . Dhile. effected b& the emergence of a global di3ision of labour. %he aim has been to redress the historical biases that "er3ade the global order and that undermine %hird Dorld #ellbeing.M International 'ournal of Cuban !tudies. International Institute for the !tud& of Cuba at 4ondon Metro"olitan 9ni3ersit&. era of social organisation. Issue E. is regional in reach. + e gro#t of ALBA spar.ing a rene#al of a &nite' + ir' Worl' mo"ement2 For decades %hird Dorld legal scholars ha3e challenged the e/isting international legal regime.J 0X+1 %he "rogressi3e #arrant of the 7oli3arian 2lliance for the Peo"les of >ur 2merica is no# re3ealed.ZisR not Fust a borderless mar5et. %o this end. #hen Fu/ta"osed alongside the man& initiati3es of the 7oli3arian Re3olution. "g. economicall&. #hich. :olume E.NC ALBA is necessary to organi6e t e masses into a glo!al mo"ement against t e capitalist system Cole/ 11 (Ken. historical "o#er imbalances "ersist in the international legal regime. #hich. graduate of the 9ni3ersit& of 2uc5land Facult& of 4a# and is no# a "ractising barrister in 4ondon. in the ca"italist. "rogressi3e. o/&moronicall& in mar5et societies. #ithout #hich the multitude of e/"loited indi3iduals #ould be st&mied in their efforts to organise themsel3es into a social force to "rosecute their class interests and enrich their life chances. Buoted in Gue3ara 0?+. ALBA may e3en a"e t e capa!ility of spar.

&ntil no#. Moreo3er. #e find a "latform from #hich %D2I4 might transcend its reacti3e nature and de3elo" a "roacti3e character.de"ri3ation #ithin %hird Dorld societies. the trium"h of such a grand legal (and social1 reformati3e "roFect necessitates a 3eritable rebirth of global social relations. In contrast to 7hu"inder Chimni. . unmo3ed b& the %hird Dorld "light and un#illing to surrender First Dorld "olitical "o#er. #e scholars for their inabilit& to articulate a cohesi3e counter-3ision but. De argue that a uniBue !outh 2merican treat& 5no#n as 2472 embodies this #ill and offers %D2I4 scholars the o""ortunit& to actualise their reformati3e as"irations. #e argue that 24728s "hiloso"h& and substanti3e #or5ings "resent the structure needed for the rein3ention of international la# along similarl& eBuitable linesJ from a formal regulator& regime to a substanti3e emanci"ator& "aradigm. and more im"ortantl&. In the 7oli3arian 2lliance for the 2mericas (24721. from a "urel& Eurocentric endea3our to one re"resentati3e of the multitude of global societ&. Im"etus for such a "roFect has been largel& missingN that is. rather. itself de"endent on "olitical and "o"ular #ill. is argue that this ^failure’ lies not #ith %D2I4 a result of the forceful counterchallenges #aged b& First Dorld actors.0 7uilding on a "ractical "rotot&"e that is sha"ing a "artici"ator& model of democratic engagement and a "rogressi3e model of social relations.

Chinese financial bac5ing to transform the !ucre. might do so out of con3iction. and fiber o"tic and cell"hone infrastructures built b& Chinese telecoms @ua#ei and ]%E.e s ape. but "ossibl& Cabello -. %he timing is also about right. and might culti3ate allies in the o""osition as a hedge against Cha3ista ri3als. #ith Chinese "roFects blossoming across the bloc. @enriBue Ca"riles.C. timber and "alm oil in !uriname. 7ut change #ill come Buic5l& once Cha3e=’s death is officiall& recogni=ed. another outcome is "ossibleJ A re=&"enate' ALBA co&l' ta. 2472 Could %urn to China. 7outerse in !uriname and. although the organi=ation’s s&mbolism as Cha3e=’s international "olitical legac& #ould li5el& inhibit a ne# :ene=uelan "resident from defunding it com"letel&. :ene=uela’s oil re3enue #ould continue to gi3e it a maFor 3oice in the ne# 2472 . as #ell as to ma5e maFor im"ro3ements to Ecuador’s road infrastructure. LDithout :ene=uela8s Cha3e=. it is almost certain that President @ugo Cha3e= #ill "ass a#a& #ithin the coming #ee5s or months. !ince )**?. if the Cha3ista candidate -. Correa could become instrumental in securing more Chinese resources for 2472 members. a Caribbean energ& coo"eration agreement that has sent [0) billion in subsidi=ed oil to its 0X member countries since )**I. !imilarl&. :irtuall& an& 3ictor in such elections #ould li5el& "ursue a centrist course. but also the 7oli3arian 2lliance for the 2mericas (24721. %he :ene=uelan ruling elite ma& be thoroughl& corru"t. E3an.. Nicaraguan and 7oli3ian satellites. the e/change medium ado"ted b& 2472 in )*0*. For an& "ost-Cha3e= go3ernment. "etroleum and mining "roFects in 7oli3iaN and in3estments in roads."robabl& Maduro. >n the other hand. associate "rofessor #ith the Dilliam '. the 3oice of Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa #ould gain "rominence. In a smaller 2472.!rings in more effecti"e lea'ers ip an' gets C ina on !oar' Ellis/ 14 (Cr. 4e3eraging China’s sur"lus of funds and "reference for "redictable. @is de"arture #ill im"act not onl& :ene=uela. made and launched b& China. for e/am"le. the "robable o""osition candidate for "resident. 0-)E-0E. Dhile con3entional #isdom assumes these im"acts #ill be mostl& negati3e. #hether s"ontaneous or orchestrated.com-articles-0)+IX-#ithout-3ene=uelas-cha3e=-alba-couldturn-to-china. "robabl&. it has become a cornerstone of the current debate. 2nd 2472 #ill "ro3ide Correa #ith the arena he needs to fill the leadershi" 3acuum Cha3e= #ill lea3e behind. in "articular #ith four maFor ne# h&droelectric "roFects and a [0) billion refiner&. %he 0)th 2472 summit. although committed regimes such as that of !uriname President Cesi 7outerse #ould li5el& remain. %he constitutional reBuirement for elections #ithin E* da&s of the "resident’s death is not onl& legall& unambiguous. #hich is scheduled for the earl& )*0E but #ill "robabl& dela&ed due to Cha3e=’s condition. including President Caniel >rtega in Nicaragua. ele3ating his more intellectuall& coherent and better managed a""roach for le3eraging Chinese resources into a ne# model for sustaining 2472 as a bloc. su""orti3e of functional. Correa has also used Chinese com"anies both to s"earhead ne# mining in3estment and to de3elo" the "etroleum sector alongside Destern firms. a tem"ting o"tion to free u" resources to address domestic needs and constituencies #ould be to cut lo#-interest financing for oil sold under the aus"ices of Petrocaribe. but the& are "ragmaticN the& #ill li5el& gamble that "ermitting an election in #hich the& control the machiner& of the state is less ris5& than ignoring the reBuirement. &et an& o""osition 3ictor #ould face a :ene=uelan National 2ssembl& dominated b& Cha3istas. Generali=ed 3iolence. #ith interrelated "roFects "romoting greater 2472 integration. gi3en a militar& #hose guide"ost during crises has consistentl& been its res"onsibilit& to defend the constitution. It is this 5ind of effecti3e use of Chinese ca"ital that 2472 as a #hole needs to sur3i3e decreased :ene=uelan funding. a ne# refiner& and a "ossible [E* billion canal "roFect in NicaraguaN another satellite launch as #ell as h&droelectric. #ith the countr&’s fiscal "osition "robabl& im"ro3ing through increased "ri3ate-sector "artici"ation and the im"ro3ed management of state . into a true common currenc&. this is not necessaril& the case. the regional bloc that Cha3e= founded to "romote his 3ision of 7oli3arian socialism. he #ould need to establish his legitimac&. #ill attem"t to maintain the status Buo in :ene=uela for as long as "ossible. China-funded :ene=uelan oil "roduction. >ne could en3ision. In fact. htt"J--###. %ashma1 2lthough it is difficult to "redict the "recise course of :ene=uela’s current leadershi" transition. or an 2472 telecommunications architecture le3eraging :ene=uelan. %he loss of oil subsidies could "rom"t the e/it from Petrocaribe of Caribbean states such as Cominica. R. could ser3e to launch this transition.M Dorld Politics Re3ie#. Cha3e=’s successor in :ene=uela. one centere' on a ne# coalition of pragmatists an' restr&ct&re' aro&n' economic cooperation #it C ina2 :ice President Nicolas Maduro and National 2ssembl& chief Ciosdado Cabello.#on.#orld"oliticsre3ie#. %he im"lementation of such a 3ision #ould be com"lemented b& a ne# Lcore of "ragmatistsM #ithin 2472. C. the ne# Nicaraguan canal and Ecuador’s refiner& could #or5 together to su""l& "etroleum to Chinese mar5ets. &et the incenti3es are strong for both Cha3e=’s lo&alists and the o""osition to see5 legitimac& through the ballot bo/. #ithout Cha3e=’s dominant "ersonalit&. com"etent administration. either of #hom might succeed Cha3e= in the short term. could al#a&s derail elections.Alliance DA – ALBA – A+F C a"e6 Deat C a"e6Cs 'eat #ill re"itali6e ALBA --. mi/ed-mar5et solutions. Ecuador has recei3ed almost [X billion in loans from China and used them relati3el& effecti3el& to transform the nation’s "o#er infrastructure . Cha3e=’s successor might also target 2472 for funding cuts. including a satellite launch. Perr& Center for @emis"heric Cefense !tudies in Dashington.

"ost-Cha3e= go3ernment. it is "rudent to contem"late instead the "ossibilit& that Cha3e=’s de"arture could be the source of the mo3ement’s recentering and reFu3enation in a fashion that reinforces a ne#found "ragmatism. 2s anal&sts across the region contem"late the colla"se of the 7oli3arian socialist mo3ement. %he Chinese might e3en in3est more in such a :ene=uela.oil com"an& PC:!2 that might accom"an& a "ragmatic. . #hile fortif&ing China’s strategic "osition in the region. "erha"s s"eeding u" "romised in3estments as PC:!2 accom"lished more of its share.

$ said an o"-ed "iece in the 7oli3ian "a"er 4a Ra=on #ith a cartoon of a sin5ing shi" named >2!. )*00. refers to the grou"ing as being the region8s $ne# common 3oice$ at man& international fora. #ill continue to debate #hat 5ind of global role of the ne# grou"ing #ould ta5e. Cuban leader Raul Castro described the founding of CE42C as $the biggest inde"endence e3ent of our time.$ 4atin 2merican leaders #ant it to be a forum similar to the >rgani=ation of 2merican !tates (>2!1.M 7ritish 7roadcasting Cor"oration. characteri=ed b& the decline of 9. 4e/isNe/is1--@24 Dhen leaders of EE 4atin 2merican and Caribbean nations co-founded a ne# regional bloc here !aturda&.Alliance DA – CELAC – 1NC Lac.!.$ said Me/ican President Feli"e Calderon. a 3ie# echoed b& a number of CE42C member countries including 7oli3ia. 7ut there #as no indication #hatsoe3er in the declaration that CE42C #ould see5 to re"lace the >2!. %he formation of CE42C has been #elcomed across the region. from the most left#ing anti-9. or #hether it #ould e3entuall& re"lace the >2!.$ 2nd >2! !ecretar& General 'ose Miguel Insul=a said CE42C #as certain to $enrich dialogues$ in North and !outh 2mericas.$ . its historic im"ortance cannot be ignored.!. Cecember Erd. of *( infl&ence in LA sp&rre' CELAC. the& are en3isioning the region as a bigger "la&er on the #orld stage. 4atin 2merican nations to the most conser3ati3e "ro-9. $ %he creation of CE42C is "art of a global and continental shift.$ Me/ican anal&st Raul ]ibechi #rote in his column on the 4a 'ornada dail&. LChina article sa&s ne# bloc embodies 4atin 2merica8s global 3ision. :ene=uelan President @ugo Cha3e= has made it clear that he #ants 4atin 2merica to stand stronger.t e ne# m&ltilateral instit&tion t at sol"es conflict BBC/ 11 (%e/t of article in English b& official Chinese ne#s agenc& ainhua (Ne# China Ne#s 2genc&. hegemon& and the rise of a grou" of regional blocs that form "art of the ne# global balance . but free of "olitical influence from the 9nited !tates.!. Considered as strong allies of Dashington.$ said an anal&st. 2ccording to $%he Caracas Ceclaration. influence. allies. more united and inde"endent from 9. 2nd 7ra=il. leaders of Me/ico. adding that Dashington needs to $engage in 4atin 2merica and the Caribbean$ and ma5e the countries feel li5e $genuine "artners and neighbours. ho#e3er.!. !outh 2merica8s leading "o#er. Ecuador and Nicaragua. Chile and Colombia ha3e also enthusiasticall& embraced the idea of CE42C. 2nal&sts. $It8s clear that maFor issues in 4atin 2merica and the Caribbean #ill be addressed b& this ne# regional bod& and the >2! #ill lose the little-e/ercised leadershi" it still "ossesses. #hich #elcomed the ne# bloc as $a ne# mechanism for "olitical coordination and agreement in the region. CE42C #ill ta5e on the role as $regional s"o5esman$ at ministerial tal5s at 5e& international forums . Dhile the ne#l&-formed Communit& of 4atin 2merican and Caribbean !tates (CE42C1 is "oliticall& di3erse #ith 3aried national as"irations .$ a 5e& document signed at the ne# bloc8s founding summit. %he& said fe# CE42C countries #ould #ant to see the >2! re"laced and the 9nited !tates #ould not stand b& in case of an& attem"t to e/clude it from 4atin 2merican affairs. Me/ico Cit&.!. should regard this mo3e as a firm #arning that its neglect of 4atin 2merica and the Caribbean8s de3elo"ment needs and issues is not in the interest of the 9nited !tates. $%he 9. "olitical anal&sts said. $Dith the ad3ent of CE42C #e ha3e created a mechanism that #e ha3en8t been able to do during our )** &ears of inde"endence.

that agriculture #as the locomoti3e (sic1 of the Coha Round. the D%> negotiations follo#ed the same informal "rocedure that used to be the norm of its "redecessor . 9.a grou" of emerging countries (7ra=il.( %he 9nited !tates rhetoricall& su""orted the 4atin 2merican Free %rade 2rea ($42F%2$1 created b& the %reat& of Monte3ideo in 0?+*. Februar& )**. It PhC in @istor& b& 9ni3ersit& of !trasbour (2mando 4ui=.ey to Bra6ilian egemony Carran6a/ E (Cr.IR their e/ternal contacts.. Mario E. %e/as 2 P M 9ni3ersit&Kings3ille. Bra6il regional po#er . reducing reliance on the 9nited !tates and e/"anding Zb0*. go3ernment. L42%IN 2MERIC2N PER!PEC%I:EJ MERC>!9R. %ashma1 Curing the Cold Dar. @EGEM>NG IN 42%IN 2MERIC2.!.-(E)?)*0****E****)Pscri"tOsciQartte/t1--@24 Global go3ernance 7ra=il is a firm belie3er in multilateralism . %@E FREE %R2CE 2RE2 >F %@E 2MERIC2!.C.!. le/is.$ . 7ra=ilian President 4ui= Inacio 4ula da !il3a is leading this effort. India. these countries rebelled against a "ro"osed agreement that #ould not address the main issues concerning agriculture reform and its im"act on international trade. . #ith the su""ort of a number of 4CCs and smaller countries . but also b& the 9! herself. 9ni3ersit& of Chicago. the countries in the region are increasingl& committed to de3elo"ing a s"ecificall& !outh 2merican international "olic&. in 2ugust )***. .. 2ssociate Professor of Political !cience.ey to a la&n'ry list of e@tinction impacts Cer"o/ 1? W a historian 7ra=ilian author of se3eral boo5s. 9ni3ersit& of Chicago. the 9nited !tates and the !o3iet 9nion fa3ored regionalist arrangements as long as the& $reinforced the strength of their res"ecti3e alliance s&stems or "ro3ided Zb0*. during an informal ministerial meeting s"onsored b& the >ECC in Ma& )**I. le/is. %an=ania . 2griculture had al#a&s been considered as a "art of the unfinished business of the 9rugua& Round and constituted one of the central as"ects of the CC2.M )( Fordham Int8l 4. benign hegemonic "retensions #ill ine3itabl& form a coalition (or e3en an alliance1 in order to balance 9. %he 9nited !tates8 attem"ts to disarm MERC>!9R in stages in the name of Destern hemis"here trade liberali=ation ha3e been hindered b& the 9nited !tates8 failure to su""ort 2rgentina during the se3ere economic crisis of )**0-)**).'. !ince then. Former 9!%R Robert Portman e/"ressl& agreed #ith me on this "oint. %ashma1 Neo-realists claim that !tates that feel threatened b& 9. 2 rules-based international order is indis"ensable for a more Fust and democratic #orld.R su""ort for im"ortant clients. 7ra=il . Ph. but also led to a ne# "attern in the decision-ma5ing "rocess in the D%> .!.scielo. 2NC %@E F9%9RE >F 9. L42%IN 2MERIC2N PER!PEC%I:EJ MERC>!9R. %he G-)* of the D%> .!.!.not onl& "re3ented a bad result in Cancun.!.$ I) 2fter the !outh 2merican "residential summit in 7rasilia. More s"ecificall&. IE.. I* %he 9nited !tates failed to "re3ent MERC>!9R from becoming an im"erfect customs union in 'anuar& 0??I. the Dorld 7an5 and its subsidiaries ignored 42F%28s e/istence in their lending acti3ities and the International Monetar& Fund o"enl& o""osed the creation of regional "a&ment mechanisms. 2ll crucial Buestions #ere sorted out b& a small grou" of countries . L7ra=il8s rise on the international sceneJ 7ra=il and the Dorld. htt"J--###. 9ntil that moment. 2t later stages.. 0*)?.M )( Fordham Int8l 4.IE no. the Euro"ean Commission. Mario E. Februar& )**. I0 %he 2rgentine and 7ra=ilian go3ernments describe MERC>!9R as a $strategic alliance$ and MERC>!9R as !ecome He@tremely important to Bra6il7s o"erall economic an' foreign policy goals . arguing that merging !outh 2merica8s t#o largest trading blocs (MERC>!9R and the 2ndean Communit&1 #ill force the 9nited !tates to grant concessions in the final round of the F%22 negotiations.? MERC>!9R has been o"enl& o""osed b& the 9nited !tates and the international agencies controlled b& the 9. 'a"an and Canada.X @o#e3er.M 3ol. %his is true as much for "eace and securit& as it is for climate change or trade. 2rgentina.the G2%%..b& the #a&. 2ssociate Professor of Political !cience. 2NC %@E F9%9RE >F 9. %he rebellion of de3elo"ing countries .C.the guad. "o#er.. #hich came to include China and at least one 4CC.'.. Ph. @EGEM>NG IN 42%IN 2MERIC2. constituted b& the 9!. it came to be recogni=ed not onl& b& 7ra=il and other de3elo"ing countries. %E9CD(*9 is . %@E FREE %R2CE 2RE2 >F %@E 2MERIC2!.Alliance DA – %E9CD(*9 – 1NC 9estoring *2(2 infl&ence in Latin America cr&s es t e %E9CD(*9 alliance Carran6a/ E (Cr. 0*)?.#as formed #ith a 3ie# to ensure that the Coha Ce3elo"ment 2genda (CC21 #ould not be another unfulfilled "romise and #ould effecti3el& bring the de3elo"ment dimension into the trade negotiations. %e/as 2 P M 9ni3ersit&Kings3ille. !outh 2frica and others1.br-scielo. )*0*.s"e 7ras lia Cec."h"6"idO!**E. focusing mainl& on the countr&8s foreign "olic&. indifference to the 2rgentine crisis created incenti3es for the MERC>!9R countries to cling together and seriousl& damaged the model of a N2F%2-centered F%22 "romoted b& Dashington.

%he abilit& of the G-)* to articulate its "ositions #ith other grou" of de3elo"ing countries #as fundamental for "rogress made during the @ong Kong Ministerial Meeting of Cecember )**I. according to #hich 7ra=il and her G-)* "artners #ere bloc5ing a deal out of "lain obstructionism. unli5e #hat ha""ened on "re3ious occasions. 7ra=il chaired the )**I Re3ie# Conference of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation %reat& and ga3e a strong "ush for the "ositi3e outcome of the )*0* Re3ie# Conference. committed to a #orld free of nuclear #ea"ons. but. became the leading forum for macroeconomic coordination. of course . #e made an ambitious offer of emission cuts at the 0Ith Conference of the Parties in Co"enhagen. It #as not the first time de3elo"ing countries tried to articulate a common "osition. >n another theme more directl& related to the sur3i3al of man5ind. in #hich the& had essentiall& a defensi3e . 7esides. since the "resence of Russia in the grou" had more to do #ith her nuclear status then #ith her economic #eight1. 7ra=il has rene#ed her engagement #ith the struggle for the total elimination of nuclear #ea"ons . the crucial negotiation of the 2ccord #as to ta5e "lace bet#een 9! President 7arac5 >bama.e. In the e3ent. Dith her bold "ro"osal. such as 'a"an and 2ustralia. #e did not allo# an&one to hide behind 7ra=il. "artl& because the 2ccord #as in itself insufficient (on finance and on reduction commitments b& some countries.on the other. the Pittsburgh !ummit confirmed the G-)* as the "remier forum for economic and financial matters. 2s a res"onse to the turmoil in the mar5ets. a ne# G-)* s"rung u" . de3elo"ing nations #ere able to ad3ance a constructi3e agenda based on for#ard-loo5ing "ro"osals. Most of the "rogress made from Cancun until the 'ul& Pac5age of )**X #as "roduced in G-. but #hich had fallen into obli3ion. . 2nother battle #as for #inning the $hearts and minds$ in a time #hen the media #as selling (or being sold1 a totall& distorted 3ersion. 7ra=il is firml& attached to the "rinci"le of $common but differentiated res"onsibilities$. !oon after that. a grou" com"osed b& de3elo"ed and de3elo"ing countries of different regions. the "artici"ation of de3elo"ing countries (including the "oorer ones1 ga3e the #hole "rocess more legitimac&. including some of the rich ones. disarmament and non-"roliferation.and India ha3e been meeting #ith the 9! and the E9 (and. later Foined b& China1 in the so-called G-. for e/am"le. #hich almost brought the #orld into a de"ression as se3ere as that of the thirties. In a situation in #hich the sur3i3al of man5ind #as at sta5e #e decided to "reach b& e/am"le.the architecture for agricultural negotiations . 7ra=il #as fighting t#o "arallel battlesJ one #as at the negotiating table. all this effort came to naught. 9nfortunatel&. #ith other rich countries.. #hich reaffirmed the $thirteen ste"s to disarmament$. #hich ta5es into account the rich countries8 historic share in global #arming and recogni=es the right of "oor countries to de3elo". the G-)* negotiations that became . most notabl& the 9!1. #hich decided that the e/"ort subsidies for agriculture must be eliminated b& )*0E."osture.although Fustifiable . this #as seen b& man&. against the "er"etuation of as&mmetries in trade negotiations. and the leaders of the $72!IC$ grou" President 4ula of 7ra=il.#ith adFustments. 2lthough circa thirt& countries #ere included in the discussions. #hich actuall& hel"ed "ush others.. in Cecember )**?. #hich e3entuall& re"laced the guad. 7ra=il chose not to hide behind other countries8 reluctance. es"eciall& in 7ra=il. in a conference at the !cience-Po in Paris in mid-)**?. the G-(. %he Financial G-)*. In Cancun. Prime Minister Manmohan !ingh of India and Prime Minister Den 'ia-7ao of China . %he change in global go3ernance became all the more e3ident during the financial crisis. %hese ste"s #ere based on the "ro"osals made b& the Ne# 2genda Coalition. 2t the same time. 7ra=il has also been a fundamental "la&er in the negotiations concerning the most critical matter of our timeJ climate change. and unli5e other countries. that the G-X #as dead. Ne3ertheless. the Co"enhagen !ummit did not reach a consensus. thus u"graded. President 'acob ]uma of !outh 2frica. Dhen I said. e3en though there is no causal relationshi" bet#een their res"ecti3e creations. on occasion. %he fact that the G-)* of the D%> had been successful in enabling de3elo"ing countries to ha3e a greater sa& in matters of international trade ma& ha3e been in the bac5 of the minds of some decision-ma5ers at the time of the consolidation of the Financial G-)* as a high-le3el forum. es"eciall& among the so-called $emerging nations$. as a manifestation of hubris. i. %he feasible alternati3e #as the so-called $2ccord$. It re"laced the G-X (in realit&. It #as. %his again "oints to the changes in global go3ernance alread& under#a&. It is hard not to relate those t#o grou"s #hich carr& the same denomination. "artl& because the method to conduct the meeting left some countries e/cluded and Fustifiabl& resentful. on one side. meetings. to do the same. ado"ted in )***. this time.

In other #ordsJ the C>@2 Round is bloc5ing the countries8 negotiations #ith regards to F%22 and MERC>!9R. L4EG24 2NC IN!%I%9%I>N24 CIMEN!I>N! >F REF>RMJ Dashington Consensus and 4atin 2merica IntegrationJ MERC>!9R and the Road to Regional Inconsistencies--%o Dhere 2re De Going E/actl&6.!. %he bill states in its first clause that the la# #ill establish "rocedures for the ado"tion of measures relating to the sus"ension. ho#e3er. in 2ugust )***. %he F%22 #ill not mo3e ahead if the 9nited !tates does not rescind subsidies or does not gi3e affirmati3e signs that it #ill for de3elo"ing countries #hen discussing ser3ices at the D%>. 2m. and a $"eace =one. Most im"ortant has been MERC>!9R8! e/traordinar& gro#th of intraregional trade . #ill #iden the sco"e of the brea5ing of "atents on drugs for 2IC! treatment . "ushing into the agenda themes such as 3isa fees e/em"tion. In line #ith this "osition. C>NC49!I>N! %he facts that ha3e been discussed here e/"lain #h& MERC>!9R. and e/tinction of "ro"ert& rights in the 7ra=ilian territor& #hen a foreign countr& does not accom"lish multilateral obligations according to the D%>. le/is. to con3ince 7ra=ilian ta/"a&ers to "a& higher ta/es to finance the de3elo"ment of other countries. %his is one of the reasons :ene=uela is attem"ting to become a full member of MERC>!9R. according to a D%> decision. 4ibert&. and are consulting #ith the 2ndean Communit&. %ashma1 Perha"s because of the region8s closer ties to Euro"e. %he Euro"eans ha3e a "ersistent "olic& of attem"ting to demonstrate to 4atin 2merica that "ublic "olicies to#ard social cohesion are better than lea3ing societ& alone to be controlled b& the ancient (and blind1 in3isible hands of the mar5et. and F%22 are not #or5ing together to acBuire a common destin&. almost three times higher than the rate of gro#th of their #orld trade. is to foster economic integration. as has ha""ened in Euro"e. and foster de3elo"ment through the "rocess of integration. Re3. cattle Zb)0XR diseases (a common "roblem to MERC>!9R countries1. #hich can be literall& translated as $Mercocities Net$. #hile MERC>!9R is still in e3ol3ing. (ol"es glo!al n&clear #ar %iller.a3eraging 0? "ercent a &ear during the 0??*s. E? :II. D@2% I! NEa%6 %he ne/t "hase.E it formall& reBuested the right to retaliate against 9. 7ut it is 3er& difficult.isil. 2nother e/am"le of these ne# trends is 7ra=il8s threat to cross-retaliate regarding the u"land cotton subsidies ado"ted b& the 9.) In )**I. . human rights. energ&. after 7ra=il #on the cotton case against the 9nited !tates. including the streamlining of regional infrastructure. %hese subsidies ha3e been deemed to be illegal and ha3e affected 7ra=ilian cotton e/"orts. Foint solutions to common "roblems b& sharing e/"eriences. if ado"ted. the four countries signed a Ceclaration on Dor5ers8 Rights and a se"arate agreement to su""ort democrac&. Dhen economic and trade integration #ill be accom"lished. )*(. and further sus"ended cross-retaliation reBuest against the 9nited !tates. energ& "roduction and distribution and. 7ra=il has also been forced to finance the "oor countries of the bloc5 to decrease economic discre"ancies bet#een the member countries. %here is also an ongoing "rocess to lin5 the !outh 2merican logistical infrastructure through the Initiati3e for the Integration of Regional Infrastructure in !outh 2merica (IIR!21. 7ra=il #ill reBuest D%> authori=ation to a""l& cross-retaliation to 9. E( 2lso #orth mentioning.0 as e"itomi=ed b& the Dashington Consensus "olicies. if the 9nited !tates does not im"lement the D%> ruling. No#. regional leaders agreed to ta5e Foint actions to increase !outh 2merican "olitical. %he& agreed to de3elo" together regional infrastructure in trans"ort. there are economic and non-economic factors that are "ushing the region to a "osition #here economic and trade integration #ill be easier in the future.!. MERC>!9R defined itself in terms that #ent be&ond Fust economic coo"eration.!. EX %his is a net#or5 of cities #ithin the MERC>!9R region that #ill de3elo" Foint "roFects. 2lthough MERC>!9R has been tested b& the financial crisis in 7ra=il and rising unem"lo&ment in 2rgentina.ey to regional tra'e an' infrastr&ct&re 'e"elopment <ala'ao/ 0 (Marcos 2urelio Pereira. financial statements and statistics. of course. and the& are negotiating #a&s to harmoni=e immigration "olicies (though a MERC>!9R "ass"ort and greater #or5force mobilit&1. e/"orts to 7ra=il. is the so-called "roFect $Red de Mercociudades$. there is a "ro"osed bill in the 7ra=ilian Congress that. co"&rights. . Go3ernment. . . C2N. PresHInternational !ociet& for Indi3. Dinter )**?.. it has continued to e/"and and dee"en economic coo"eration. es"eciall& for MERC>!9R.I :III. 1008 (###.#hich has been a "aradigmatic issue since the beginning of the Coha Round. to#ard a common mar5et. "atents.M 0I 4a# P 7us. and telecommunications.org-resources-lit-freetrade-"rotectionism. Ces"ite all the deterrence factors "resented in this "a"er that #ould halt MERC>!9R de3elo"ment (in the sense of economic integration1. 2t that meeting. and macroeconomic coordination.html1 . %his "oint of 3ie# #ould "ush 4atin 2merican countries to a more E9-li5e st&le of distributi3e "olicies. . 2nd in 0??X. issues relating to the formation of a customs union =one. Zb))*R and ser3ices "ro3iders. #ea5ening. from a "olitical "oint of 3ie#. %his demands "recise measures to "romote integration and de3elo"ment of isolated sub-regions. is a Buestion &et to be ans#ered. %he IIR!2 #as ado"ted at a Meeting of !outh 2merican Presidents held in 7rasilia. and economic integration. %he member go3ernments ha3e reached a sectoral agreement on automoti3e trade. Professor of 4a# at 9ni3ersidade Catolica de 7rasilia !chool of 4a#. E+ %he MERC>!9R Parliament has started to discuss a large arra& of issues. social.$ %he MERC>!9R countries ha3e also negotiated associate membershi" #ith 7oli3ia and Chile.Alliance DA – %E9CD(*9 – +ra'e Impact %E9CD(*9 is .

and the entire #orld #as "lunged into the $Great Ce"ression$ for the rest of the decade. %@E k0 C2NGER %> D>R4C PE2CE %he #orld enFo&ed its greatest economic gro#th during the relati3el& free trade "eriod of 0?.$ . 7ritish tariffs "ro3o5ed the 2merican colonists to re3olution. In the late 0?th Centur&. trade and foreign exchange controls. Get #e again see trade barriers being raised around the #orld b& short-sighted "oliticians.I-0?(*. facing onl& a mild recession. #hen restricti3e trade "olic& (mercantilism1 #as the ruleN ri3al go3ernments fought each other to e/"and their em"ires and to e/"loit ca"ti3e mar5ets. Dithin a &ear. after a half centur& of general free trade (#hich brought a half-centur& of "eace1. and later the Northern-dominated 9! go3ernment im"osed restrictions on !outhern cotton e/"orts . Dill the #orld again end u" in a shooting #ar as a result of these economicall&deranged "olicies6 Can #e afford to allo# this to ha""en in the n&clear ageI $Dhat generates #ar is the economic "hiloso"h& of nationalism: embargoes. %he result6 Dorld trade came to a grinding halt.D@EN G>>C! C>N8% CR>!! 7>RCER!. %he de"ression in turn led to Dorld Dar II. #hich raised some tariffs to 0**_ le3els.a maFor factor leading to the 2merican Ci3il Dar. In 0?E*. @ostilities built u" until the& e3entuall& e/"loded into Dorld Dar I. a "eriod that also sa# no maFor #ars. 9! President @oo3er ignored #arning "leas in a "etition b& 0*)X "rominent economists and signed the notorious !moot-@a#le& 2ct. 2RMIE! >F%EN C> @istor& is not lac5ing in e/am"les of cold trade #ars escalating into hot shooting #ars J Euro"e suffered from almost non-sto" #ars during the 0(th and 0Xth centuries. o3er )I other go3ernments had retaliated b& "assing similar la#s. The philosophy of "rotectionism is a "hiloso"h& of #ar. short-sighted "oliticians throughout Euro"e again began erecting trade barriers. etc. monetary devaluation.

assistant "rofessor of International 2ffairs and associate director of the Center for the !tud& of Global Issues (Globis1 at the 9ni3ersit& of Georgia (7roc5 F. Its regional ambitions seem more collaborati3e than com"etiti3eJ L>ur self-"erce"tion in3ol3es nothing less than being the organi=ing "rinci"le of the continentHnot dis"lacing the9nited !tates. and it has been some#hat marginali=ed "oliticall& since it #ithdre# from go3ernment in 0?XI. the arm& is more concerned #ith domestic unrest that results from organi=ed crime and drug 3iolence. Politicall&. Lin the case of 7ra=il.e t e *NA(*9 +essman/ 1. and "erha"s as an e/am"le of %&"e 2 hedging. It has been the catal&st in regional integration efforts such as the 9nion of !outh 2merican Nations (9N2!9R1. the relationshi" #ith our !outh 2merican neighbors is a necessar& and absolute "riorit&. . If it is able to sustain an&thing close to the X "ercent GCP gro#th it enFo&ed last &ear. defensi3e force. 7ra=il has made 3er& little attem"t to bolster its militar& ca"abilities in an& signiTcant #a&.I( 9nli5e man& other states in the Destern @emis"here. monetar& stabilit&. and global issues. disagreements o3er the international a""roach to Iran and Israel. but alongside it.Ph. militar&. %his essentiall& conciliator& a""roach is reci"rocated b& language from 5e& 2merican leaders. 7ra=il is a leading candidate for a "ermanent seat on the 9N !ecurit& Council (9N!C1. and its abilit& to "romote economic.+0 2s such. #hich is designed to "romote free trade.M+. and the recent left#ard shift in !outh 2merican "olitics. and the !ummer >l&m"ic Games in )*0+. and. L!&stem !tructure and !tate !trateg&J 2dding @edging to the Menu. 7rasilia "ercei3es its future as a global "o#er to be de"endent on its solidiTcation of regional leadershi" and stabilit& in !outh 2merica.Alliance DA – *NA(*9 – 1NC Bra6il as risen as a regional s&perpo#er '&e to 'ecrease' *( infl&ence in t e region. hemis"heric. 7ra=il is still committed to its constitutionall& mandated renunciation of nuclear #ea"ons. and di"lomatic stabilit& in the region #anes. I7!2 !ecretar& Figueiredo de !ou=a ma5es this "oint clear in stating that. 7ra=ilian foreign "olic&. Ces"ite its interest in "romoting regional economic and securit& autonom&. Its arm& is a small.+) In fact. and "olitical su"er"o#er. is "rimaril& concerned #ith de3elo"ing regional institutions that are ca"able of addressing threats to !outh 2merican stabilit&. b& the ongoing economic troubles of the 9nited !tates. an im"ortant member of the e/"anded G)* economic organi=ation. of course. 7ra=il is a clear leader among !outh 2merican states . as Rio de 'aneiro #ill host the FIF2 Dorld Cu" in )*0. and economic si=e.MI? %his a""roach has carried o3er from the "residenc& of 4ula da !il3a to that of his successor.M+I *NA(*9 is critical to maintaing 'emocracy an' sta!ility in Latin America . totaling o3er t#ent& billion 9! dollars. rather than focusing on shar"ening a com"etiti3e edge against the 9nited !tates.C. there is nothing about 7ra=il’s a""roach to regional leadershi" that addresses militar& 3ulnerabilities that the 9nited !tates #ould loo5 to e/"loit in the e3ent of a future militar& crisis. as :ene=uela #ould li5e.IX @o# does 7ra=il’s foreign "olic& strateg& reVect its ra"id emergence6 In an interesting t#ist. 7ra=il had a trade sur"lus in )*0*.. through the !outh 2merican Cefense Council (CC!1. "articularl& in the fa3elas. It is hard to doubt 7ra=il’s emergence as a global economic. %a&lor and Francis >nline1--@24 2 current and 3er& clear case of %&"e 7 hedging is found in 7ra=il’s a""roach to regional leadershi" in !outh 2merica. 7ra=il is also set to enFo& cultural ascendance in the ne/t half decade. Currentl&. Dith a GCP a""roaching t#o trillion 9! dollars "er &ear. %hese threats ma& be more li5el& to emerge as 2merican inVuence subsides. 2nd. it is "roFected to be one of the #orld’s to" si/ economies b& )*0I.. Cilma Rousseff. )*0). Political !cience. Gi3en its sheer geogra"hic. cultural.M Ma& ))nd. and at the forefront of im"ro3ed L!outh-!outh Coo"erationM organi=ations li5e the India7ra=il-!outh 2frica triad (I7!21. des"ite some recent tension o3er the sco"e of ins"ections granted to the International 2tomic Energ& 2genc& (I2E21. demogra"hic. and a different attitude to#ard inter3ention and democrati=ation.+E Indeed. it is currentl& the eighth largest econom& in the #orld. 9ni3ersit& of Colorado. collecti3e securit& .ey to regional instit&tions li. %he em"hasis ma5es sense #hen one considers that 7ra=il shares a land border #ith e3er& countr& on the continent e/ce"t Chile and Ecuador.+* 7ra=il’s emergence as the leading "o#er in !outh 2merica occurs #ithin the conte/t of more than a centur& of effecti3e 9! hegemon& in the Destern @emis"here. Dashington’s decision to focus most of its foreign "olic& attention on the Middle East and East 2sia. %he >bama administration’s )*0* National !ecurit& !trateg& states that the 9nited !tates L#elcomes 7ra=il’s leadershi" and see5s to mo3e be&ond dated North-!outh di3isions to "ursue "rogress on bilateral. 7ra=il’s relations #ith the 9nited !tates ha3e been generall& "ositi3e during the "ost-Cold Dar era. its more asserti3e a""roach to regional leadershi" could be seen as a challenge to 9! "rimac&. %his is clearl& not the case. 7ra=il’s relati3e ascendanc& is accelerated.

%his is one of the moti3ations #hich led Canada to become in3ol3ed in efforts at regional conflict resolution. such as Contadora.d5-"roFe5ter-files-IE0I. securit& considerations #ere "erha"s more im"ortant.5aJpar 11. Canada "ossessed an interest in "romoting stabilit& in the face of a "otential decline of 9. In other #ords. Petr Kal"ar. as #ill be discussed in the ne/t cha"ter. @ence. underde3elo"ment. Discovering the Americas: The Evolution of Canadian Foreign Policy Towards Latin America . 9N2!9R consistentl& o""resses the domestic o""osition .!. anti-2merican sentiment "roduced b& decades of subFugation to 9. influence in the region W #hich had some credibilit& in 0?(?-0?X. S "lus successfull& resol"e' 'emocratic crises. + at sol"es glo!al #arfare 9oc lin/ 0E Z'ames Francis. 2nal&sts at the time #orried that in a #orstcase scenario.!. Indeed it preser"es K 'emocracy on the continent. but it concentrates e3en greater "o#er in internal matters as a result of S 9N2!9Rms summits. @ence.+EX-%heQ4>GICQ>FQ9N2!9R. %he organi=ation. Professor of Political !cience at >5anagan 9. and so on W #ere lin5ed to the "ros"ect of e/"losi3e e3ents occurring in the hemis"here. hegemon& in the 2mericas.aau. !olingen claimsJM dominant domestic "olitical coalitions create regional institutions that S strengthen their o#n "osition in "o#erM. the onl& means of a""eal are S stri5es. might "reoccu"& Dashington to the e/tent that the 9nited !tates #ould be unable to "erform adeBuatel& its im"ortant hegemonic role in the international arena W a concern e/"ressed b& the director of research for Canada’s !tanding Committee Re"ort on Central 2merica."df.!.!. Master %hesis at 2alborg 9ni3ersit& Cenmar5 (L%he 4ogic of 9N2!9RJ Its >rigins and Institutionali=ation LN htt"J--"roFe5ter. . t is mec anism safeg&ar's 'emocracy on the S continent. #hile the >2! has listened to all sides Lat the S tableM. It #as feared that s&c a pre'icament co&l' generate increase' global instability an' "erha"s e3en a hegemonic war. It has edged the 9nited !tates out of the most !outh 2merican countries internal affairs. client states in 4atin 2merica. but at the cost of "otential democratic Bualit&. due to the #ildl& ineBuitable di3isions of #ealth in some 9. instabilit& created b& a regional #ar . mounting e/ternal debt. e/ternal "olitical factor seems to be a strong argument for 9N2!9Rms creations and S e/istence. in addition to "olitical re"ression. Presidents ha3e an e/"licit interest in bac5ing other "residents from S domestic o""osition and simultaneousl& establishing a "recedent that fa3ors their o#n "osition in S the future. Perce"tions of declining 9. streets bloc5ades. strategic and economic interests. FF1 2""arentl&. the Central 2merican imbroglio #as 3ie#ed as a fuse #hich could ignite a catacl&smic "rocess throughout the region. Da5e Earl& 7ird FileR Dhile there #ere economic moti3ations for Canadian "olic& in Central 2merica.XE 7esides. College. rather than creating dialogue bet#een domestic actors. assembles S "residential summits. In the en3ironment #here grou"s S lac5 institutions of hori=ontal accountabilit& to legal "olitical change. beginning in Central 2merica and s"reading else#here in 4atin 2merica. or "rotests. 0E*-0E0. contrar& to the >2!.

It is al#a&s "ossible to dra# a blunt connection bet#een beha3ior that im"ro3es a countr&’s "osition in the regional and international s&stem and a desire for greater le3erage 3is-a-3is the s&stem leader. and "erha"s Vourish. increased efforts at mediation..Alliance DA – *NA(*9 – LA Insta!ility Impact – . there is sim"l& no com"elling reason to inter"ret 7ra=il’s a""roach to regional leadershi" as an instance of %&"e 2 hedging. hegemon& in the 2mericas. Mean#hile. Perce"tions of declining 9. Professor of Political !cience at >5anagan 9. as #ill be discussed in the ne/t cha"ter. %a&lor and Francis >nline1--@24 %hrough the formation of the !outh 2merican Cefense Council. 2s such. beginning in Central 2merica and s"reading else#here in 4atin 2merica. along #ith some of the other e/am"les mentioned in "assing at the beginning of this section. 0E*-0E0. strategic and economic interests. ser3e as a "rime e/am"le of beha3ior that can be considered a case of %&"e 7 hedging.Ph. . %&"e 2 hedging that #ould directl& increase its abilit& to succeed in a militar& confrontation #ith the 9nited !tates .C. that there are no additional considerations associated #ith 7ra=il’s a""roach to regional leadershi" that #ould disBualif& it as an instance of %&"e 7 strategic hedgingN nothing close to traditional balancing beha3ior is under #a& and. in addition to "olitical re"ression. College.Bra6il maintains sta!ility t ro&g retrenc ment +essman/ 1. 2nal&sts at the time #orried that in a #orstcase scenario. this case does. 7ra=il is de3elo"ing a regional net#or5 that #ill be able to function.!. #ith reference to the strategic hedging identiTcation mechanism de3elo"ed earlier in this "a"er. the anal&sis of 7ra=il "resented here ser3es to illustrate the conce"tual distinction bet#een %&"e 2 and %&"e 7 strategic hedging.!. influence in the region W #hich had some credibilit& in 0?(?-0?X. in. ho#e3er. such as Contadora. Discovering the Americas: The Evolution of Canadian Foreign Policy Towards Latin America . Dith this criterion in mind. securit& considerations #ere "erha"s more im"ortant. because 7ra=il’s leadershi" in !outh 2merica has been dri3en b& the highest le3els of its leadershi" (most notabl&.!. Political !cience. the Central 2merican imbroglio #as 3ie#ed as a fuse #hich could ignite a catacl&smic "rocess throughout the region. + at sol"es glo!al #arfare 9oc lin/ 0E Z'ames Francis. conscious. %his is one of the moti3ations #hich led Canada to become in3ol3ed in efforts at regional conflict resolution. %&"e 2 strategic hedging. 2ctions that "lace 7ra=il at odds #ith the 9nited !tates are more a"t to reVect differing 3ie#s on foreign inter3ention or negotiation methods rather than a tendenc& to#ard militar& confrontation. client states in 4atin 2merica. former President 4ula da !il3a1.M Ma& ))nd. anti-2merican sentiment "roduced b& decades of subFugation to 9. It is also im"ortant to note. 9ni3ersit& of Colorado. )*0). assistant "rofessor of International 2ffairs and associate director of the Center for the !tud& of Global Issues (Globis1 at the 9ni3ersit& of Georgia (7roc5 F. and greater economic coordination through 9N2!9R. @ence. but not a case of %&"e 2 hedging. due to the #ildl& ineBuitable di3isions of #ealth in some 9. It #as feared that s&c a pre'icament co&l' generate increase' global instability an' "erha"s e3en a hegemonic war. instabilit& created b& a regional #ar . In the end. and so on W #ere lin5ed to the "ros"ect of e/"losi3e e3ents occurring in the hemis"here. there is little Buestion about the strategic nature of 7ra=ilian beha3ior.n 3ol3es a s"eciTc. . L!&stem !tructure and !tate !trateg&J 2dding @edging to the Menu. during and after the "rocess of 2merican retrenchment. and obser3able attem"t to bolster ca"abilities in a #a& that #ill signiTcantl& hel" the hedging state in the e3ent of a militari=ed dis"ute #ith the s&stem leader. underde3elo"ment. mounting e/ternal debt.NC *NA(*9 ens&res no Latin America transition #ars. there is no e3idence that 7ra=il is engaging in com"etiti3e. Canada "ossessed an interest in "romoting stabilit& in the face of a "otential decline of 9.!. might "reoccu"& Dashington to the e/tent that the 9nited !tates #ould be unable to "erform adeBuatel& its im"ortant hegemonic role in the international arena W a concern e/"ressed b& the director of research for Canada’s !tanding Committee Re"ort on Central 2merica. Da5e Earl& 7ird FileR Dhile there #ere economic moti3ations for Canadian "olic& in Central 2merica.

.

collecti3e memor& and 4atin 2merica and the Caribbean. "ages +?+W(00. L2nti-2merican Resistance in 4atin 2mericaJ 2n Issue of !o3ereignt&.M !ociolog& Com"ass. "aternalism. 7lac5#ell !&nerg&1--@24 Conclusion (and ReVection1S %he subFect of anti-9! resistance in 4atin 2merica ta5es a "articular meaning in recent S &ears as #e consider the shifting to#ards left-leaning go3ernments and the gro#ing "rogressi3e base-mo3ements in the region. Issue X. :olume I. %he "re3ious discussion on the anti-9! resistance mo3ements as tied to 9!-4atin 2merica relations’ historic traFector& "ro3ides a conte/tS to better assess the changes of both inter-2merica relations and anti-9! resistance in theS region. %he articulation of anti-9! sentiment ha3e e3ol3ed and transTgured in the lastS centur& to challenge different manifestations of 9nited !tates’ inVuenceN #hether inter3ention. @o#e3er.S %he im"act of these ne# "olitical trends in 4atin 2merica has been translated into theS mobili=ation of ne# actors from both directions. or mere ca"italism . ground-u" and to"-do#n. economic.las DA – 1NC *( eg fails in Latin America an' only triggers greater !ac.las <ele6-<ele6/ 11 W Professor #ho focuses on the subFects of social mo3ements. and militar& inVuence o3er 4atin 2merica S must be inter"reted as tied to changes in the 9nited !tates’ a""roaches of inVuence. occu"ation. %he S e/"ansion of anti-9! resistance #ill continue as the di3erse forms of inter3ention W o3ert S and co3ert W enter into other Telds of 4atin 2merican life. 2ugust )*00. PhC from !9NG-9ni3ersit& at 2lban& (Robert. because that #ould undermine and reduce S the root of social struggles for eBualit& and Fustice.Bac. and the car3ing of alternati3e forms of resistance and "aths for action. . e3enS #hen these are directed to the 9nited !tates. Militari=ation. and Neoliberalism. %o these ne# trends #e canS add the gathering of thousands of acti3ists for the Dorld !ocial Forum at Porto 2legre inS )**I and their claim of ^2nother Dorld is Possible’. it #ould be im"erati3e not to confuse all forms of resistance in the region #ith anti-9! sentiment. %he changing "atterns in resistance S to#ards the 9nited !tates’ "olitical.

Nicaragua. #ith or #ithout the Cold Dar or #ea"ons of mass . "la&ing an instrumental "art in establishing "aramilitar& grou"s that often turned into notorious death S sBuads (!ee @aines. the 9nited !tates launched at least se3en "reem"ti3e stri5es against alleged communist threats in Guatemala. or allegedl& 3iolated international la#. no# that no threat from an e/tra hemis"heric "o#er or ideolog& e/ists in 4atin S 2merica. #hile simultaneousl& harming the "ros"ects for democrac& in the S region and its o#n image in the region.sage"ub. real"oliti5S strategies. ) No. to a full-scale in3asion b& 9nited !tates troo"s. S and human rights. and Panama. Megan !holar is a PhC ` 4o&ola 9ni3ersit& in Chicago. %he& had conTscated 2merican "ro"erties. #ere 3er& harmful for both 9! interests and 4atin S 2merican interests. but the& had not threatened to attac5 the 9nited !tates homeland #ith #ea"ons of mass destruction. El !al3ador. the li5es of #hich had seldom been seen S in 4atin 2merica. Grenada.las *( egemony in Latin America ca&se' m&ltiple atrocities an' contin&ing t ese policies &n'ermines *( egemony an' t&rns t e case (anc e6 an' ( olar 1.in"igorates 'ictators ips an' increases tensions Dosal/ : .ely &n'ermine *( lea'ers ip2 *( lea'ers ip in Latin America cataly6es conflict. 0??I1. officials or Buasi-officials #ere at least indirectl& S in3ol3ed in murders and torture. FF1 2merica’s Cold Dar "olicies in 4atin 2merica.com-Fournals-:olQ)QNoQ)EQCecemberQ)*0)-E. L%he 4atinamericani=ation of 2merican Foreign Polic&. self-determination.!. long range "olic&. the "recarious ci3ilmilitar& balance that e/isted in 4atin 2merica in the late 0?I*s #as Buic5l& s5e#ed so that ci3il institutions #ere S o3er#helmed b& the "o#er of the ne# "raetorians (!ee 4o#enthal and Fitch. E3idence also suggests that 9. Chile. In 2rgentina.. 7& inflating the "o#er of the armies in the region. established relations #ith the !o3iet 9nion. %he result #as !r&tal military go"ernment that #rea5ed ha3oc on ci3ilians and their #ea5 institutions.com-content-)0-E-. (LPo#er and Princi"leJ 2 Ne# 9! Polic& for 4atin 2mericaMN International 'ournal of @umanities and !ocial !cience :ol..las DA – Les Bac.M htt"J--Fds. Contin&ing s&c policies #ill most li. In none of these cases did the 4atin 2mericans attac5 the 9nited !tates homeland. therefore. cons"iratorial relationshi" #ith re"ressi3e regimes that S routinel& 3iolated the rights of its citi=ens. there is no reason for Dashington to continue "olicies that focus on securit& and short-term. %he means b& #hich the 9nited !tates struc5 3aried from co3ert o"erations run b& a fe# CI2 agents. 7ra=il. )EN Cecember )*0)N htt"J--###. Chile. S 2 more ethical. documents sho# that Dashington at times hel"ed #ith this S re"ression. %he 9nited !tates maintained a cos&. 'ournal of Ce3elo"ing !ocieties. Dorse &et. %he 9nited !tates has been going ^in search of monsters to destro&’ in 4atin 2merica for nearl& )** &ears."df.iFhssnet. ado"ted an inde"endent foreign "olic&. Cuba. E3en if #e #ere to acce"t the notion that a hard-line "olic& #as ine3itable during the Cold Dar S "eriod of su"er-"o#er conflict. could ha3e safeguarded 2merica’s 3ital interests and S bolstered the image of the 9nited !tates as a nation committed to the "romotion of democrac&. the Cominican Re"ublic. Peter !anche=(PhC1 is a Professor P Graduate Program Cirector (GPC1 ` 4o&ola 9ni3ersit& in Chicago.-)IE1--@24 Curing the Cold Dar.Bac. 0?X+1. %he saddest as"ect of this drama is that 2merica "robabl& gained little from S becoming in3ol3ed in these nefarious acti3ities. recei3ed his PhC in 4atin 2merican histor& from %ulane 9ni3ersit& in Ne# >rleans (Paul '. t o&san's &pon t o&san's of 'eat s can be S blamed on the domestic armed forces and the complicity of t e *( go"ernment and its re"resentati3es o3erseas. and Guatemala.Professor of @istor& at the 9ni3ersit& of !outh Florida. Nicaragua. to in3asion b& a "ro/& force. on the other hand.

@e #as a nationalist. 2ccording to the neo- conser3ati3e inter"retation of 9nited !tates relations #ith 4atin 2merica. Dilliam @o#ard %aft. #here the Marines unsuccessfull& "ursued a bandit named 2ugusto C<sar !andino. 0?XEJ )+I1. the Cominican Re"ublic. Eg&"t. Cuban. )***1. the #a& that the 9nited !tates sle# monsters in Nicaragua. )1 %he >""onents of 9! Inter3ention 2re Not >nl& 7andits Man& criminals undoubtedl& too5 ad3antage of the disorder in @aiti and else#here to rob and 5ill. one can argue that these dictatorshi"s #ould ha3e come into "o#er. %he ad3ersar& is ne#. and !audi 2rabia because #e must tolerate ^unfreedom in certain "laces’ in order to #in ^the larger battle for freedom on the global scale.destruction to rationali=e this "olic&. Conclusions 4atin 2mericans ha3e enFo&ed a right of self-determination onl& to the e/tent that the& did not challenge the hegemon& of the 9nited !tates. and Cominican "eo"le an& better off because of 2merican militar& inter3ention6 If the 9nited !tates had ne3er inter3ened. 2merica #as not con3erted into an aggressi3e "o#er b& the un"ro3o5ed and co#ardl& attac5s of ?-00N the 9nited !tates has acted "reem"ti3el& in 4atin 2merica to acBuire territor&. "rotect its economic interests. and Doodro# Dilson all attem"ted to teach the 4atin 2mericans ^to elect good men. Krauthammer ()**)aJ ?*1 claims. but the cham"ion of "reem"tion is old. remo3e alleged threats. @enr& Kissinger e/"lained the rationale for 2merican o""osition to the election of !al3ador 2llende #ith the infamous statementJ ^I don’t see #h& #e need to stand b& and #atch a countr& go Communist due to the irres"onsibilit& of its o#n "eo"le’ (@ersch. . and the Cominican Re"ublic. 2merica has been acting "reem"ti3el& and unilaterall& in the #estern hemis"here to "reser3e the Pa/ 2mericana. to name onl& three. but #ithin a fe# &ears the Marines suddenl& found themsel3es confronting a dangerous guerrilla mo3ement that 5e"t them bogged do#n for &ears in a 3icious and contro3ersial counterinsurgenc& cam"aign. @aiti.1 Cictatorshi"s and Couble !tandards Dill not Din 9s Man& Friends or 2llies %he 9nited !tates rationali=ed its su""ort for these and other dictators on the grounds that the& ser3ed short-term 2merican interests. @e might ha3e been a confused "olitical leader. E1 %he Results of Preem"ti3e 2ction Ma& 7e Dorse %han the %hreat It !ought to Eliminate %he results of 2merican militar& inter3ention in Nicaragua. %he histor& of 9nited . the Euro"eans obFect to a dis"la& of im"erialist beha3ior that has been all too common in 4atin 2merica. Cuba. #hich is the general obFecti3e of the neo-conser3ati3e foreign "olic& agenda. %heodore Roose3elt. %hese are the forerunners of the constabular& missions that form one of four essential 2merican militar& missions in the neoconser3ati3e "olic& (Kagan et al. and e3en arrest drug trafTc5ers . maintain stabilit&. 9nited !tates militar& inter3ention dri3es nationalists to ta5e u" arms against the in3ader . the Euro"eans begrudgingl& acce"ted it and the !o3iets ac5no#ledged it as if it #ere a legitimate act in the 9nited !tates s"here of inVuence. ConseBuentl&. @aiti. 01 2merican Inter3ention Pro3o5es Militant >""osition No matter ho# altruistic the moti3e. through the Pol5 and Roose3elt Corollaries. From 4atin 2merican histor& #e can deri3e se3eral "rinci"les that a""l& to contem"orar& foreign "olic&. Cuba. Dhen the 9nited !tates launched a co3ert "reem"ti3e stri5e against !al3ador 2llende in 0?(E. the& #ere at the time better for their o#n "eo"le than those #ho #ould re"lace them. no matter ho# bene3olent the intention.’ %he 7ush administration ho"es that success in 2fghanistan and IraB #ill unleash democratic reform throughout the Middle East. Dere the Nicaraguan. President Dilson sent the Marines to @aiti after a mob attac5ed the @aitian "resident and hac5ed him to bits in the street. the !hah of Iran. 7atista. and his cause resonated among Nicaraguans for t#o generations after his assassination . and Reagan’s Contras. the 9nited !tates inter3ened militaril& in Cuba. their "olicies "roduced dictatorial regimes throughout the region . right through the 2lliance for Progress. @istor& can teach 3aluable lessons. and Panama to "reser3e order and stabilit&.’ Columnist Charles Krauthammer dusted off 'eanne Kir5"atric5’s old doctrine to Fustif& su""ort for unsa3or& regimes toda&. %he most Vagrant misre"resentation of a "eo"le’s as"irations "robabl& occurred in Nicaragua .. %he "olicies of "reem"tion and unilateralism ha3e been de3elo"ed and reTned through nearl& )** &ears of interaction #ith 4atin 2merica. Get the 9nited !tates too often underestimated and denigrated the obFecti3es of its enemies . and Mobutu. #e can learn much from e3en a cursor& e/amination of 9! "olic& to#ard 4atin 2merica. It is difTcult to s"read democrac& b& force.’ Ces"ite their best efforts. but he #as more than Fust a bandit. ^for all their faults. 2n& attem"t to im"ose a form of go3ernment on an& foreign "eo"le 3iolates the fundamental right enFo&ed b& citi=ens in a democrac&J the right to self-determination. the 'ohnson Coctrine. neo-conser3ati3es are defending 9nited !tates relations #ith authoritarian regimes in Pa5istan. #ere the !omo=a. %oda&.’ I1 It Is CifTcult to Gro# Cemocrac& in Infertile !oil %he 7ush Coctrine calls for the "romotion of democratic 3alues around the #orld because freedom is allegedl& a ^uni3ersal 3alue. %he Marines undoubtedl& restored order #here anarch& once reigned. %here is a straight line that runs from Monroe. No# that the 9nited !tates has asserted its right and dut& to "olice the entire #orld. and %ruFillo dictatorshi"s. In 0?0I. Nicaragua. 4oo5ing bac5 on Pinochet. the current and future beha3ior of this su"er"o#er reVects the im"erial character of 2merican "olic& as it has been a""lied to 4atin 2merica since the Monroe Coctrine. In the earl& )*th centur&. Me/ico. and the Cominican Re"ublic illuminates the "ath to the future of an allegedl& ^bene3olent global hegemon&.’ 2lthough the 7ush doctrine does not dra# e/"licitl& on an& 4atin 2merican "recedent.

but it is not inconcei3able. #ere . Peru and Ecuador. a dee" reluctance to engage S in combat.S ited their theater of o"erations to a small sli3er of dis"uted territor& in S the 9""er Cene"a region of their 2ma=onian border. htt"J--###. but neither state e/hibited S much in the #a& of offensi3e militar& ca"abilities. #as denounced b& e3er& 4atin 2merican countr& e/ce"t b& the "u""et regime in Panama. militaries in the region ha3e "ointed to S such dis"utes as Fustifications for their o#n e/istence or for acBuisition S of maFor #ea"ons s&stems. "". Instead. >ne #ould be hard "ressed to argue that either the "eo"le of Guatemala or the 9nited !tates beneTted from the "reem"ti3e stri5e against 'acobo 2rben= in 0?I. Roose3elt’s "olic& of non-inter3ention #on allies for the !econd Dorld Dar. and su""orting and train. these ri3alries in and of S themsel3es ha3e not led to the de3elo"ment of militar& forces #ith sigS nificant offensi3e ca"abilities or resulted in sustained ci3ilian attention S to defense "olic&. %he 9nited !tates is no# the "reeminent militar& "o#er on the "lanet. In 0?I. illustrates the almost instincti3e ci3ilian a3er.empirics pro"e Ca3id )ion-Berlin.&nas. @o#e3er enduring. 7ut #e concur #ith Mares ()**01 and Comingue= S ()**I1 that 9. 2s earl& as Dorld Dar II.S ing 4atin 2merican armed forces to counter domestic sub3ersion.). S considerabl& larger in si=e and resources. #ith the 9nited !tates inter3ening to "re3ent S #ar in the region.M Ca3id Pion-7erlin and @arold %rin5unas.’ %here is not a clearl& articulated o""osition to the neo-conser3ati3e grand strateg&. and the Peru3ian armed forces. In this. :ene=uela and Colombia. the 9nited !tates has influenced the nature of the S militaries in the region in a #a& that deem"hasi=es con3entional offensi3e S ca"abilities.Fstor. influence fa3oring a domestic orientation influenced t#o generations of militar& officers and discouraged the de3elo"ment S of offensi3e militar& ca"abilities (Mott )**).!tates beha3ior in 4atin 2merica "ro3ides clues.8 In fact.S ing and discouraged the "urchase of ad3anced #ar fighting "latforms S b& 4atin 2merican states. "ro3ided counterinsurgenc& eBui"ment and train..S "utes. X?-?+1. *( egemonic p&s into Latin America only can ca&se conflict.!. but it also #on friends and allies. %he in3asion of Panama in 0?X?. but not a blue"rint for the a""lication of the 7ush Coctrine to the rest of the #orld. %he 4atin 2merican !tudies 2ssociation. S such as 2rgentina8s. 7ush on E* !e"tember )**. in the face of combat against a ca"able Euro"ean S ad3ersar& is highlighted b& the outcome of the Mal3inas conflict (Garcia S 0??I1. S %he relati3e "aucit& of inter-state conflict does not mean that there S ha3e not been serious.S tra-continental con3entional militar& threats.!. more often than not. (+-0**. 4atin 2merican states began to di3ersif& their S acBuisitions to Euro"ean and 2sian su""liers b& the 0?(*s. It is difTcult to imagine that the 7ush administration #ould attem"t to im"ose the language of the Platt 2mendment into the constitutions of IraB or 2fghanistan. #hile the darlings of the neo-conser3ati3es at home.S sion to #ar and resort to di"lomac& that has characteri=ed inter-state S relations in the region. @o#e3er. in cases #here such a $#ar scare$ has occurred S during "eriods of ci3ilian rule. In fact. ha3e launched "reem"ti3e stri5es #hen and #here the& "ercei3ed threats to 2merican economic and strategic interests. and e3en #ar. %edd& Roose3elt and Ronald Reagan. but this still S means that 9. S and acBuisitions. Each ri3alr& is a source of continuing S tension and occasionall& raises the "ossibilit& of militari=ed border dis. the res"onse of an/ious "oliticians has S been im"ro3ised. Kenned&’s great de3elo"ment "roFect fell far short of its obFecti3es. E ()**(1. as 'ohn Kerr& did in his Trst debate #ith President George D. :ol.. 'ohn Kenned& and Ronald Reagan. %his conflict re3ealed Ecuadorian armed forces S that "erformed une/"ectedl& #ell on defense. ho#e3er. the& do not necessaril& "romote the long-term interests of the 9nited !tates. @is go3ernment res"ected democratic "ractices and "romoted economic de3elo"ment more seriousl& and successfull& than the militar& dictatorshi"s that follo#ed him o3er the ne/t E* &ears. and El !al3ador S and @onduras are 5e& e/am"les. %he Good Neighbor Polic& and the 2lliance for Progress.. role in 4atin 2merica as a classic e/am"le S of hegemonic management. and both states lim. for all their faults. #hich too5 "lace bet#een S Peru and Ecuador in 0??I. S %he most recent 4atin 2merican conflict. It meant that man& 4atin 2merican militaries ne3er S de3elo"ed the ca"abilities to engage in sustained offensi3e o"erations. No. S %he shortcomings of a relati3el& #ell-eBui""ed 4atin 2merican militar&. . #hile Fran5lin Roose3elt and 'ohn Kenned& are much more "o"ular in the region. S %he internal orientation of 4atin 2merican defense establishments S #as reflected in decisions about defense budgets.!. %he S 9nited !tates contributed to this trend as a maFor "ur3e&or of militar& S assistance and training to the region. %he histor& of 9nited !tates relations #ith 4atin 2merica sho#s that "reem"ti3e and unilateral actions are not the domain of a single "art&. Contem"orar& international relations theor& has S occasionall& referred to the 9. Na3al Postgraduate !chool )**> (L2ttention CeficitsJ Dh& Politicians Ignore Cefense Polic& in 4atin 2merica. the neo-conser3ati3es are absolutel& correct. the& ha3e not de3oted the time and energ& to a ne# grand strateg& to re"lace it.??E?*1 --@24 %he 9nited !tates "olic& has indirectl& reinforced the trend a#a& from S interstate conflict b& encouraging a focus on internal defense for 4atin S 2merican militaries. rather than b& directl& inter3ening to resol3e the S conflicts that did occur. militar& training. E3en after the 9nited !tates re"udiated the "olic& of non-inter3ention at the Monte3ideo Conference of 0?EE. through #hich it em"hasi=ed an S internal orientation. the e/"licit "olic& of the 9nited S !tates #as to assume the mantle of defending the 2mericas against e/. Certainl&. demonstrated a res"ect and concern for 4atin 2mericans all too rare in 2merican foreign "olic&. the "olic& of "reem"tion needs no Platt 2mendment. 2lthough "reem"ti3e stri5es ma& sometimes be "o"ular and e3en necessar&. some #ould "oint to the Central 2merican conflicts of S the 0?X*s as an e/am"le of hegemonic $mismanagement$ that "ro3o5ed S greater conflict. #ith an immediate resort to a S negotiated solution as the "referred solution. E3en conflicts bet#een 4atin 2merican state ri3als themsel3es S re3eal inadeBuacies in defense "re"aredness. 2ll "residents and "residential candidates ha3e afTrmed the right of "reem"tion. Neither side had S the desire or abilit& to escalate the #ar. Doodro# Dilson and %heodore Roose3elt. !uch a reconsideration of 2merican foreign "olic& should ta5e ad3antage of the lessons learned in a region #here the 9nited !tates has long e/ercised hegemon&. enduring ri3alries in 4atin 2mericaN 2rgentina S and Chile. Dith 4iberals and Cemocrats focused e/clusi3el& on the tas5 of defeating 7ush at the "olls. and urgent a""eals for third "art& mediation.org-stable-. Cemocrats and Re"ublicans. 4atin 2merican Research Re3ie#. the 9nited !tates inter3ened re"eatedl& in 4atin 2merican affairs.. %he neo-conser3ati3es succeeded in ta5ing o3er the 7ush administration foreign "olic& "artl& because the& had a grand strateg& to use that "o#er in defense of #hat the& call ^2merican interests and 3alues. hegemon& has had little influence on interstate conflict S "er se. are not so #idel& res"ected or regarded in 4atin 2merica. no action at all might ha3e been the better res"onse to a greatl& e/aggerated threat to the 9nited !tates. 9ni3ersit& of California at Ri3erside an' @arold +rin.

and Ca3id Pion-7erlin S ()***1 has documented ho# economic integration in the !outhern Cone S has reinforced an e/"ectation of "eaceful interstate dis"ute resolution. 7ra=il. 2rgentina had successfull& resol3ed all of its S maFor border dis"utes. the relati3e S absence of #ar in 4atin 2merica during the last t#o decades #ould S seem to su""ort the often debated $democratic "eace$ h&"othesis set S forth b& liberal theorists of international relations (Mao= and Russet S 0??E1. including combat and training troo"s from their Cold Dar s"on. Dithout such a stimulus S for the de3elo"ment of offensi3e ca"abilities. the S !outhern Cone has come the furthest to#ards de3elo"ing a "luralistic S securit& communit& #hose members no longer ha3e an e/"ectation that (7arletta and S %rin5unas )**.1. the Colombian-:ene=uelan dis"ute o3er S maritime borders in 0?X( sho#cased their attention and resources in the (successful1 de3elo"ment of S a "ermanent di"lomatic solution to their border dis"ute. S #hich established that a modern state8s boundaries should match those S of its colonial "redecessor and fa3ors the territorial integrit& of states . it certainl& a""eared to be so S for the ci3ilian leaders of these maFor regional "o#ers %his sustained "eace has been reinforced b& di"lomatic and legal S (i. %he& also sought greater regional integration S through the MERC>!9R treat& frame#or5. @o#e3er. In the !outhern Cone. S 4atin 2merican Research Re3ie# S to inter3ene di"lomaticall&N the Peru3ians #ere eBuall& an/ious for a S negotiated settlement. S $Fear of a general escalation certainl& contributed to limiting the scale of S 3iolence and to attem"ts to end the #ar Buic5l&$ ()**). but S b& the end of the 0??*s. Comingue= ()**I1 S documents contributions to international la# that originate in inter.1. it is im"ortant to note that neither state attem"ted to remed& S the deficiencies in their militar& "erformance through the de3elo"ment S of a credible defense "olic&. . and a ci3ilian disinterest in militar& "lanning during the S conflict.e. Neither side de3elo"ed an& significant ne# militar& ca"abilities S or engaged in long-term "lanning to address the shortcomings of their S defense forces in the #a5e of the conflict.. as did the "rocess of essence.0??I. S %he& had greater success initiall& con3incing 7ra=il than Chile. Central 2merican states.+1. the most im"ortant of #hich is uti "ossidetis Furi. 2lthough not rele3ant to e/"laining ci3ilian inattention to defense "olic&..S 3ested >ther recent inter-state militari=ed dis"utes that too5 "lace bet#een S ci3ilian-led go3ernments in the region. S both liberal and realist theories of international relations #ould "redict S that 4atin 2merica is an unli5el& candidate for arms races. :ene=uela. a relati3el& freBuent circumstance S in t#entieth-centur& 4atin 2merica. Colombia and :ene=uela S instead "ursued regional economic integration. Certainl&.1. S %he Contadora "rocess in Central 2merica also hinged on an e/"ecta. It is notable that once the Cold Dar ended S and the su"er"o#ers lost interest in the region. and the other guarantor states S 0. and the !outhern S Cone. dramaticall& increasing S the flo#s of goods and "ersons along their common borders during the S 0??*s (%rin5unas 0???1. to "eacefull& resol3e the Central S 2merican conflicts of the 0?X*s. Dithin one da& of the S commencement of hostilities. crafted and "ressed for#ard S b& ci3ilian "oliticians in Me/ico. a notable ci3ilian inattention to S defense "olic&.S sors. it ma5es sense that ci3ilian S elites "referred di"lomac& and international la# as solutions to interstate S dis"utes. the conflicts S he identifies are small in scale and ha3e not s"ar5ed significant ci3ilian S interest in defense "olic& be&ond a brief $rall& around the flag$ effect S during the "eriod of the conflict itself. the region as a #hole S #as engaged in a long-term di"lomatic effort. #hich came on Februar& 0(. S S force #ill be used in their interstate relations.ne3ertheless noticeabl& S un"re"ared for combat o"erations. S a general lac5 of "re"aration for #ar S on both sides. 7oth Nicaragua and @onduras reBuired significant S su""ort. the Ecuadorian "resident #as alread& S ma5ing urgent a""eals to the >2!. "ointing out that states still S ma5e the choice to militari=e interstate dis"utes. Instead. led S b& President >scar 2rias of Costa Rica.S ties. the so-called Contadora grou". S also re3ealed a "reference for di"lomac&. such as the 0?+( %reat& of %latelolco establishing 4atin 2merica as a S nuclear-#ea"ons free =one (7arletta and %rin5unas )**. %he o3erall ef.S 2merican di"lomac&. or acute securit& dilemmas. In demilitari=e and eliminate conflicts #ith their neighbors to undermine the rationale for the e/istence of a large (and "oliticall& acti3e1 militar&. to mount credible militar& "re"arations. S Dhether or not this logic #as correct. Mares ()**01 S has disagreed #ith the conce"t of =ones of "eace as a descri"tion of the S international relations of 4atin 2merica. ci3ilian leaders on both sides in. balance of S "o#er beha3ior. S @e also "oints to the role of the >2! in managing interstate dis"utes S and organi=ing "eace5ee"ing mechanisms . S %hese ri3alries reinforced ci3ilian "references for di"lomatic o3er S militar& solutions to conflict. In the #a5e S of the #ar. Fust three #ee5s S after the fighting had begun. %he conce"t of =one of S "eace has e3en been enshrined in certain limited forms b& regional trea. democrati=ers in 2rgentina sought to S democrati=ation that S s#e"t the region during the 0?X*s and 0??*s. Kaco#ic= (0??X1 goes fur. Colombia. ha3e not "roduced "articularl& effecti3e or offensi3e S minded armed forces. and a general lac5 of "re"aredness for conducting effecti3e S militar& o"erations. reinforcing the "rolonged "eace in the region.S ther and argues that !outh 2merica has de3elo"ed a $=one of "eace$ in S #hich states no longer e/"ect to go to #ar #ith each other. #e should S also note that e3en states ruled b& militar& go3ernments. ci3ilian1 institutional inno3ations in the region.S tion that democrati=ation #ould "roduce a more "eaceful subregion. such as the Nicaraguan-@onduran S border tensions during the 0?X*s and the confrontation bet#een Colombia S and :ene=uela o3er maritime boundaries in the Gulf of :ene=uela in 0?X(. Buic5l& negotiated an end to their S dis"utes and "ursued an aggressi3e demilitari=ation of the region (7arletta S and %rin5unas )**. 2s @er= and Pontes Nogueira "oint out. In fact. lac5ing logistical ca"abilities and S enough troo"s (@er= and Pontes Nogueira )**)1. S In the absence of sustained international or regional militar& threats. !imilarl&. E3en as the 9nited !tates S and Cuba attem"ted to "re"are their "ro/ies for #ar.S fect of histor& and structure is to "roduce a "ath b& #hich ci3ilian elites S ha3e consistentl& turned a#a& from de3elo"ing an interest in national S defense as an im"ortant field of "ublic "olic&.

.

for the first time in its histor&. htt"J--###."h"6"idO!**E.Issue *E . founded in 0?X+.M 3ol. there has been a maFor de3elo"ment in 7ra=il’s relations #ith the other states in its region. 7ra=il is considered internationall&. both economic and "olitical. "age . 7ra=il has attended the annual meetings of the Rio Grou" of 4atin 2merican and Caribbean states. not 4atin 2merica. 2griculture had al#a&s been considered as a "art of the unfinished business of the 9rugua& Round and constituted one of the central as"ects of the CC2. the economic and "olitical integration of !outh 2merica has been the "rinci"al S focus of 7ra=ilian foreign "olic& under President 4ula. India. and #ith a good deal of hesitanc&. the "rofound changes in #orld "olitics that follo#ed. L7ra=il8s rise on the international sceneJ 7ra=il and the Dorld. 2lso for the first time.#as formed #ith a 3ie# to ensure that the Coha Ce3elo"ment 2genda (CC21 #ould not be another unfulfilled "romise and #ould effecti3el& bring the de3elo"ment dimension into the trade negotiations. 7ra=il’s "resence and influence in the #orld has gro#n significantl&. acti3el& "ursued a "olic& of engagement. fundamental "olitical and economic change in 7ra=il itself.Bra6il DA – 1NC Bra6il controls Latin American infl&ence. President Cardoso hosted the first summit of !outh 2merican "residents in 7rasomlia in )***. during the 4ula administration. Me/ico Foined the 9nited !tates and Canada in ^North 2merica’. 2t later stages. as one of the ^emerging global "o#ers’ in the first half of the t#ent&-first centur&. 7ut 7ra=il has also. and its "residents ha3e attended all fi3e !ummits of the 2mericas held since Cecember 0??. 2t the same time. L7ra=il and L4atin 2mericaM.a grou" of emerging countries (7ra=il.ey to a la&n'ry list of e@tinction impacts Cer"o/ 1? W a historian 7ra=ilian author of se3eral boo5s. and is no# gi3ing its su""ort to the S "ro"osed creation of a communit& of all E) 4atin 2merican and Caribbean states.s"e 7ras lia Cec. regional "o#er is a necessar& condition for global "o#er. 2rgentina.M 'ournal of 4atin 2merican !tudies.. it is argued in Itamarat&.S ho#e3er.2ugust )*0*.) .-(E)?)*0****E****)Pscri"tOsciQartte/t1--@24 Global go3ernance 7ra=il is a firm belie3er in multilateralism . Former 9!%R Robert Portman e/"ressl& agreed #ith me on this "oint. It PhC in @istor& b& 9ni3ersit& of !trasbour (2mando 4ui=.IE no. not onl& in its long-term economic and strategic interests but because. the intensification of the "rocess of globalisation and. %an=ania .. along #ith China and India. !outh 2frica and others1. %he region in Buestion. #ith its immediate neighbours in !outh 2merica. htt"J--Fournals. em"hasi=ing on 7ra=il in "articular.++ Bra6il regional po#er .+(-. 7ra=il has continued to su""ort the #or5 of the >rganisation of 2merican !tates. uni3ersit& "rofessor. including trade. More s"ecificall&. reform of multilateral institutions and climate change. a !outh 2merican Communit& of Nations #as formed. #hich came to include China and at least one 4CC. but also b& the 9! herself. %his #as a conscious decision deliberatel& ta5en in 0??)WE. that agriculture #as the locomoti3e (sic1 of the Coha Round. #hile resisting the 9! agenda for the economic integration of the #estern hemis"here.2merican Conference in 7ogotam.XI. reinforced b& the fact that in 0??. 2t the third summit S held in Cusco in Cecember )**. !tudies. :olume . 2 rules-based international order is indis"ensable for a more Fust and democratic #orld. is !outh 2merica. )*0*.English historian.cambridge. es"eciall& underS the "residencies of Fernando @enriBue Cardoso (0??IW)**E1 and 4ui= Inamcio 4ula da !il3a ()**EW0*1. and 7ra=ilianist #ho s"ecialises in the stud& of 0?th and )*th Centur& 4atin 2merica.X at the ninth Pan. 7ra=il has "la&ed an increasingl& im"ortant role in NorthW!outh and !outhW!outh relations and has been a 5e& "la&er in discussions on a #hole range of global issues. %his is true as much for "eace and securit& as it is for climate change or trade. PhC in @istor& at the 9ni3ersit& of 4ondon (4eslie. %he G-)* of the D%> . focusing mainl& on the countr&8s foreign "olic&. 7ra=il has begun to thin5 of itself as a regional "o#er. It consisted of 0) nations. including Gu&ana and !uriname.br-scielo. indeed. during an informal ministerial meeting . it came to be recogni=ed not onl& b& 7ra=il and other de3elo"ing countries. uncertaint& and ambi3alence.org-abstractQ!**)))0+a0****XXa1--@24 7ra=il and !outh 2merica since the End of the Cold DarS %here is one final t#ist to this stor& of 7ra=il’s relationshi" #ith ^2memrica 4atina’-^4atin 2merica’. founded in 0?.scielo. these countries rebelled against a "ro"osed agreement that #ould not address the main issues concerning agriculture reform and its im"act on international trade. 2s a result of the end of the Cold Dar.increase' *( presence 'isr&pts regional po#er !alances Bet ell/ 1? . Im"ro3ed relations #ith its !outh 2merican neighbours and. 2t the summit held in 7rasomlia in Ma& )**X S the communit& became a 9nion of !outh 2merican Nations (9N2!9R1. not least.

since the "resence of Russia in the grou" had more to do #ith her nuclear status then #ith her economic #eight1. %he rebellion of de3elo"ing countries . .. Dith her bold "ro"osal. and unli5e other countries. unli5e #hat ha""ened on "re3ious occasions. 2s a res"onse to the turmoil in the mar5ets. It is hard not to relate those t#o grou"s #hich carr& the same denomination. 2lthough circa thirt& countries #ere included in the discussions. #hich reaffirmed the $thirteen ste"s to disarmament$. de3elo"ing nations #ere able to ad3ance a constructi3e agenda based on for#ard-loo5ing "ro"osals. 7ra=il has rene#ed her engagement #ith the struggle for the total elimination of nuclear #ea"ons . 7ra=il chaired the )**I Re3ie# Conference of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation %reat& and ga3e a strong "ush for the "ositi3e outcome of the )*0* Re3ie# Conference. later Foined b& China1 in the so-called G-. such as 'a"an and 2ustralia. disarmament and non-"roliferation.on the other. In a situation in #hich the sur3i3al of man5ind #as at sta5e #e decided to "reach b& e/am"le. most notabl& the 9!1. that the G-X #as dead.b& the #a&. but #hich had fallen into obli3ion. but.not onl& "re3ented a bad result in Cancun. 2ll crucial Buestions #ere sorted out b& a small grou" of countries . !ince then. 2nother battle #as for #inning the $hearts and minds$ in a time #hen the media #as selling (or being sold1 a totall& distorted 3ersion. In Cancun. #hich actuall& hel"ed "ush others.the guad. #hich almost brought the #orld into a de"ression as se3ere as that of the thirties. 7ra=il is firml& attached to the "rinci"le of $common but differentiated res"onsibilities$. the Euro"ean Commission. in Cecember )**?. meetings. %he Financial G-)*. #e made an ambitious offer of emission cuts at the 0Ith Conference of the Parties in Co"enhagen.s"onsored b& the >ECC in Ma& )**I. in a conference at the !cience-Po in Paris in mid-)**?.the G2%%. ado"ted in )***.e. es"eciall& among the so-called $emerging nations$. committed to a #orld free of nuclear #ea"ons. %hese ste"s #ere based on the "ro"osals made b& the Ne# 2genda Coalition. "artl& because the 2ccord #as in itself insufficient (on finance and on reduction commitments b& some countries.the architecture for agricultural negotiations . constituted b& the 9!.. including some of the rich ones. the "artici"ation of de3elo"ing countries (including the "oorer ones1 ga3e the #hole "rocess more legitimac&.although Fustifiable . Dhen I said. 7ra=il and India ha3e been meeting #ith the 9! and the E9 (and. the G-)* negotiations that became . for e/am"le. all this effort came to naught. Most of the "rogress made from Cancun until the 'ul& Pac5age of )**X #as "roduced in G-. and the leaders of the $72!IC$ grou" President 4ula of 7ra=il. Prime Minister Manmohan !ingh of India and Prime Minister Den 'ia-7ao of China . this time. %he change in global go3ernance became all the more e3ident during the financial crisis. #e did not allo# an&one to hide behind 7ra=il. >n another theme more directl& related to the sur3i3al of man5ind. to do the same. %he abilit& of the G-)* to articulate its "ositions #ith other grou" of de3elo"ing countries #as fundamental for "rogress made during the @ong Kong Ministerial Meeting of Cecember )**I. Ne3ertheless. It re"laced the G-X (in realit&. #hich e3entuall& re"laced the guad. the G-(. the Pittsburgh !ummit confirmed the G-)* as the "remier forum for economic and financial matters. thus u"graded. the D%> negotiations follo#ed the same informal "rocedure that used to be the norm of its "redecessor . 9nfortunatel&. of course . It #as not the first time de3elo"ing countries tried to articulate a common "osition. 9ntil that moment. e3en though there is no causal relationshi" bet#een their res"ecti3e creations. i. 7ra=il has also been a fundamental "la&er in the negotiations concerning the most critical matter of our timeJ climate change. #ith the su""ort of a number of 4CCs and smaller countries . !oon after that. President 'acob ]uma of !outh 2frica. In the e3ent. a ne# G-)* s"rung u" . "artl& because the method to conduct the meeting left some countries e/cluded and Fustifiabl& resentful. on occasion. 'a"an and Canada. 2t the same time. against the "er"etuation of as&mmetries in trade negotiations. %he fact that the G-)* of the D%> had been successful in enabling de3elo"ing countries to ha3e a greater sa& in matters of international trade ma& ha3e been in the bac5 of the minds of some decision-ma5ers at the time of the consolidation of the Financial G-)* as a high-le3el forum."osture. on one side.#ith adFustments. in #hich the& had essentiall& a defensi3e . the Co"enhagen !ummit did not reach a consensus. 7ra=il chose not to hide behind other countries8 reluctance. %his again "oints to the changes in global go3ernance alread& under#a&. #hich ta5es into account the rich countries8 historic share in global #arming and recogni=es the right of "oor countries to de3elo". a grou" com"osed b& de3elo"ed and de3elo"ing countries of different regions. #ith other rich countries. %he feasible alternati3e #as the so-called $2ccord$. the crucial negotiation of the 2ccord #as to ta5e "lace bet#een 9! President 7arac5 >bama. #hich decided that the e/"ort subsidies for agriculture must be eliminated b& )*0E. es"eciall& in 7ra=il. this #as seen b& man&. became the leading forum for macroeconomic coordination. 7esides. according to #hich 7ra=il and her G-)* "artners #ere bloc5ing a deal out of "lain obstructionism. 7ra=il #as fighting t#o "arallel battlesJ one #as at the negotiating table. It #as. but also led to a ne# "attern in the decision-ma5ing "rocess in the D%> . as a manifestation of hubris.

2ccording to Kenneth Dalt=. and Russia are unable or un#illing to disarm. Moreo3er. %his shift in the balance of "o#er engenders a greater degree of uncertaint& about 9.edu-)*0)-0*-0*-#hat-is-bra=il-u"-to-#ith-its-nuclear-"olic&-b&tra3is-stalcu"-. 7ra=il belie3es that the Dest is in gradual decline and that 7ra=il is Foc5e&ing #ith other rising nations for "osition.. :ene=uela chaffs at the "ros"ect of 7ra=il as regional hegemon. "ossibl& abo3e ?* "ercent.M Georgeto#n 'ournal of International 2ffairs. ha3e #armed and the t#o states e3en coo"erate on nuclear and other securit& issues. including a stronger ins"ections regime. George and 7arbara 7ush Fello# at the George @. 0*-0*-0). 2ccording to former 2rgentine di"lomat Emilio CArdenas. it refuses to ado"t the 2dditional Protocol of the Non-Proliferation %reat& (NP%1. In )*0*. states mirror other states W states #ithout nuclear #ea"ons see the "o#er and "restige of states #ith nuclear #ea"ons and the& #ant in. Part of that strateg& is the de3elo"ment of an enormous nuclear attac5 submarine analogous to India’s ballistic missile-ca"able 2rihant-class. hardl& an en3ironment that #ould necessitate nuclear #ea"ons. LDhat is 7ra=il 9" to #ith its Nuclear Polic&6. the 9nited !tates. Further north. t#o countries that ha3e or ha3e attem"ted to nationali=e the facilities of Petrobras. changes in 4atin 2merica and a "ercei3ed shift in the balance of "o#er a#a& from the Dest reBuire a reconsideration of that assessment. 2lthough the "roFect #as scra""ed after the Fu5ushima disaster. %o the north.!. such as the %reat& of %latelolco. it is incumbent u"on the 7ra=ilian go3ernment to see5 alternati3e sources of securit&. 7ush !chool of Go3ernment and Public !er3ice at %e/as 2PM 9ni3ersit&. in addition to 7ra=il’s ne# "olitical and economic "ro#ess. :ene=uela has also challenged 7ra=ilian influence in 7oli3ia and Ecuador . 7ra=ilian 2mbassador to the 9nited !tates Roberto 2bdenu remar5ed that L submarines are not subFect to the ZI2E2R safeguards regime.. %hat is #h& 7ra=il is see5ing to achie3e a degree of "olitical clout commensurate #ith its ne# economic "o#er. at the margins of its "o#er. the "reeminent realist international relations scholar. Moreo3er. a""ears hamstrung b& economic challenges. setting as its chief foreign "olic& goal a "ermanent seat on the 9nited Nations !ecurit& Council. 7ra=il’s state oil com"an&. e3en modest decreases in the nuclear in3entories of the 9nited !tates and Russia ha3e "ro3en difficult to accom"lish. 7ra=il has a""eared the model for non"roliferation. the "ros"ect remains. Com"ared to the Middle East. Furthermore.M 2 nuclear #ea"on #ould not onl& deter rogue neighbors but solidif& 7ra=il’s regional dominance and "ro3e that it "ossesses the militar& ca"abilit& to contribute to international securit&.M %his inter"retation "ro3ides 7ra=il the ca"abilit& to enrich #ea"onsgrade uranium and de3elo" a full fuel c&cle outside of international scrutin& and #ithout 3iolating its agreements.georgeto#n. In addition to this "ercei3ed shift in the balance of "o#er. remar5ed that Pa5istan #on international rele3ance L"recisel& because it has a nuclear bomb. Get. gi3es it the abilit& to challenge the 9. !uch actions ha3e riled 7ra=ilian leaders. In )**X. the go3ernment of @ugo Cha3e= le3ied a contro3ersial [)X) million ta/ on a 7ra=ilian construction firm.Bra6il DA – *ni1&eness Wall Bra6il is p&rs&ing a egemonic strategy in face of 'eclining *2(2 infl&ence in t e region (talc&p/ 1. In )**. such as the 2dditional Protocol. is the disarmament of nuclear states. %o 7ra=il. 2 5e& com"onent of "ermanent membershi" is the abilit& to share the burdens of maintaining international securit&. !outh 2merica is stable and "eaceful. %ashma1 Dhat is 7ra=il u" to6 %hat is the Buestion national securit& "lanners should be as5ing. there is some Buestion as to #hether 7ra=il is ca"able of such a charge. %his "rotocol #ould strengthen the International 2tomic Energ& 2genc& (I2E21’s abilit& to detect clandestine #ea"ons "rograms through 3arious mechanisms. Former 7ra=ilian :ice President 'os< 2lencar #ho died last &ear. If the 9. Relations #ith 2rgentina. long the guarantor of !outh 2merican stabilit&. the "ro"ulsion reactors in 7ra=il’s submarines #ould reBuire a higher degree of uranium enrichment than those for commercial "o#er. to maintain order in the hemis"here is trul& constrained. consider 7ra=il’s more aggressi3e militar& strateg& from )**E to )*0* during the "residenc& of 4ui= InAcio 4ula da !il3a. 7ra=il feels no res"onsibilit& to ta5e further ste"s to tie its hands b& acceding to the 2dditional Protocol.!. 4atin 2merica is not as stable as often belie3ed. although 7ra=il does "artici"ate in 3arious non"roliferation agreements. ca"abilities and intentions in the future.D. 7ra=il’s refusal to ado"t the Non-Proliferation %reat&’s 2dditional Protocol and its "ursuit of nuclear "ro"ulsion technolog& raise #orrisome Buestions about its intentions. In addition to its "otential as a missile "latform. a "recondition to an& additional restrictions under the NP%. its longtime ri3al. !uch uncertaint&. @o#e3er. %a5en . India. %his "ercei3ed shift in the balance of "o#er "resents 7ra=il #ith an o""ortunit& for international leadershi". htt"J--Fournal.!. 4oo5ing at the current "ermanent members as #ell as the other 7RICs W Russia. 2ccording to 7ra=il’s National !trateg& of Cefense. Russia and :ene=uela reached a deal to build the 4atin 2merican countr&’s first nuclear reactor. and China W 7ra=il sees nothing but countries #ith nuclear #ea"ons. if the abilit& of the 9. !ince abandoning its nuclear #ea"ons "rogram in the late 0??*s.!. Currentl&. (%ra3is C.

inde"endentl&. Charges #ere laid. *( le' m&ltilateral organi6ations fail. and "ursuit of nuclear "ro"ulsion technolog& should gi3e 2merican "olic&ma5ers and non"roliferation anal&sts "ause.-)*0). on theS other hand. Dith ne# elections no# reBuired in :ene=uela #e ha3e an o""ortunit& to see if there has been a real change in 7ra=il8s regional . (*.3ice-"resident Nicolas Maduro sa&s nn&es88 -. :ene=uela8s "residential succession "rocedures are clear. !uch criticism ma& ha3e been a bit unfair and missed the nuance in 7ra=il8s a""roach. %he "ercei3ed decline in the 9nited !tates’ #illingness and abilit& to inter3ene militaril& in 4atin 2merica. @egemon&J %heoretical ReVections on !hifting Po#er Patterns and Em"irical E3idence from 4atin 2mericaM. refusal to sign the NP%’s 2dditional Protocol."df. of the constitution allo#ed Cha3e= u" to si/ months lea3e of absence before a ne# election #ould be necessar&. 7ra=il. )*0E. !usan McE#en-Fial is 4ecturer at the Ce"artment of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Main=. Dhat astonished man& #as the degree of "olitical "ressure 7ra=ilian "resident Cilma Rousseff a""lied in Mercosur and 9nasur to "unish the "olitical factions that had de"osed her leftist all&.. the "rocess #as legal. summits and common institutional frame#or5s constitute a relati3el& signiTcant le3el of acti3ism.uni-main=.and multilateral tradeS institutions as #ell as non-acti3ism on behalf of the 9. Dolfgang Muno is :isiting Professor of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Erfurt. a""lications for obser3er status.de-files-)*0)-0*-m"ie"*. e3ents in )*0) suggest 7ra=il ma& no# be 3aluing the s"irit as much as the "rocess of democrac&.. e3en the Chinese ha3e WS as actors traditionall& and geogra"hicall& e/ternal to the region W signiTcantl& e/"anded theirS institutional ties to 42 latel&. %he Buestions man& are as5ing no# is if this 3ote #ill ha""en -. LP>!%-C@2:E] %E!% F>R 7R2]I4 4E2CER!@IP.ey moment for Bra6ilian foreign po#er pro=ection B*9GE(/ 14 W PhC (Dar#ic51 in Politics and International !tudiesN M2 (Destern >ntario1 in Political !cience and 4ecturer in International Relations at 2N9 College of 2rts and !ocial !ciences (!ean. #hen one considers ho# 7ra=il’s securit& en3ironment is changing. !tate 3isits.Main= Pa"ers on International and Euro"ean Politics (MPIEP1 Pa"er No. and a con3iction deli3ered in less than a da&.!. regional hegemon&1. :ene=uela8s u"coming 3ote stands as a test of this ne# "ro-democrac& "olic& in 7raslia. 2rticle )E) of the constitution mandates a ne# election #ithin E* da&s if a "resident dies during the first four &ears of their term. hegemon& is "articularl& clear. the idea of an intendedS counterbalancing of 9. @ere #e can detect a mi/ture of institutional failure (>2!. L7RICs and 9. F%221. 7ut.!. a technicall& free 3ote on schedule #ould satisf& 7ra=il8s "ro-democrac& reBuisites. htt"J--international. the fostering of bi.!."olitics. !trictl& s"ea5ing. 2le/ander 7rand is 4ecturer and Post-Coc Researcher at the Ce"artment of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Main=. !uggestions that she #as sim"l& "la&ing ideological fa3ourites #ere strengthened #hen 7ra=il refused to ta5e a similarl& strong stance against :ene=uela #hen Cha3e= failed to ta5e his oath of office in 'anuar&. sus"ending Paragua& from both grou"ings. @ere. that he agreed #ith the :ene=uela !u"reme Court Fudgment that as a re-elected "resident article )E. and the ho"elessness of nuclear disarmament "ro3ide "o#erful incenti3es to e/"lore nuclear ca"abilit&. March (. 2ndrea Ribeiro @offmann is 4ecturer at the Dill& 7randt !chool of Public Polic&. None can claim that 7ra=il is acti3el& "ursuing a nuclear #ea"on. but "oliticised to the "oint of farce. #hich is o"en to debate based on "ast "recedent. these actions are not necessaril& "ro3ocati3e. a congressional trial held. it also stands as a significant test of the democrac&-"romoting credentials of 7ra=il and the t#o im"ortant regional clubs it runsJ the !outh 2merican "olitical grou"ing 9nasur and the trade bloc Mercosur. @o#e3er..M %he 2ustralian. In an act of Buiet bureaucratic resistance 7ra=ilian di"lomats "ointedl& noted that article )E) still a""lied and that "rom"t elections #ould be reBuired if Cha3e= died #ithin the ne/t four &ears. @istoricall&. hostilit& of neighboring countries to 7ra=il’s economic interests.FF1 Concerning institutional inno3ation and the use of alliances a-o multilateral coordination S as a means to strengthen one’s inVuence. #hich became his countr&8s "olic&. these actions bring 7ra=il’s intentions into Buestion. 4e/isNe/is1--@24 :ENE]9E428s President @ugo Cha3e= has Fust died after a "rolonged battle #ith cancer. . 9ni3ersit& of Erfurt. )*0). Dhile his death raises Buestions about the longe3it& and sustainabilit& of his 7oli3arian re3olution.!. things loo5 remar5abl& different. No# is t e . 7ra=ilian "residential foreign "olic& ad3iser Marco 2urelio Garcia offered the o"inion. has for &ears sought to use the institutional le3el to strengthen its status as regionalS "o#er (and "otential contender to 9.Bra6il as trie' to co&nter!alance *( egemony Bran' et al 1. but its more asserti3e militar& "osture. In contrast. Paragua&8s 4iberal and Colorado "arties Foined forces to im"each leftist "resident Fernando 4ugo in a "rocess that man& in the region no# call a nncou"-"eachment88.and ho# democratic it #ill be. >n 'une )).

!2 is com"osed of a di3ersit& of racial. #hich #ould erode the credibilit& of a "ossible Maduro 3ictor& and further "olarise the countr&. ma5ing "ossible its emergence as a #orld "o#er. Ruthless "rogrammes of social engineering. the 7olshe3i5s. follo#ed b& the industrial re3olution !talin brutall& im"osed on it.(. #ho assumed the "seudon&m !talin. 7rics aiming for no less than a ne# #orld order. >ne standout tactic from the >ctober )*0) election #as Cha3e=8s "rocli3it& for mandating length& broadcasts of nngo3ernment ser3ice88 "rogramming to "re-em"t tele3ision co3erage of Ca"riles8s cam"aign e3ents. PostCha3e= :ene=uela ma& "ro3e to be 7ra=il8s first real test. 2fter a centur& of "olitical and social u"hea3als from 0XI* to 0?I*. is a rich ta"estr& of languages and religions that has been moulded into one nation under the leadershi" of nationalist intellectuals. raising Russia from a Euro"ean bac5#ater to the international "o#er it became after 0?. Moreo3er. Cilma. It reBuired the social and "olitical re3olutions of 0?0(. 2 behind the scenes stead&ing hand on Maduro-cam" tem"tations to undul& e/"loit their "osition of "o#er #ill be essential to the countr&8s future "olitical stabilit&. fulfilling much the same role as Clinton cam"aign hothouse Car3ille and 2ssociates did around the #orld in the )***s. %he 7olshe3i5s defeated counterre3olution. %he same holds true for a "ossible o""osition #in.foreign "olic& to ad3ancing substanti3e democrac& or if the 4ula-era tradition of selecti3el& ad3ocating a brand of "ro-leftist democratic outcomes remains in "lace . Dhere matters get tric5& is the e/tent to #hich Maduro de"lo&s e/ecuti3e "residential "o#ers to artificiall& boost his cam"aign. Russia8s old ruling classes "ro3ed inca"able of realising Peter the Great8s dream. com"rising t#o international and three regional "o#ers. the 9K and France. #as the son of one such minorit&. 7ra=il has the bac5-room influence to "re3ent these sorts of 3iolations of the democratic s"irit of an election. as #ell as 5e& ad3isers such as Garcia. ha3e enormous influence#ith the Cha3e= faithful. 2fter the Cecembrist 9"rising of 0X)I. German&. :ene=uelans #ill 5no# if the election is rigged. China is the dominant economic "la&er in 7rics . is 3isibl& "unching abo3e its #eight b& . !2. recast them into modern industrial "o#ers. India. E3en if uncomfortable for di"lomats. for Russia to sur3i3e the !econd Dorld Dar. #ho "ro3ed eBual to the tas5. the Georgians. reunited the countr& and created stabilit& b& offering leadershi" to a "easant re3olt that brought much-needed economic and social change. It #as the intellectuals #ho ado"ted the most re3olutionar& ideas of their age. 7rics8s obFecti3e is to resha"e the international economic order b& challenging the historic dominance of the 9!. selfgo3ernment and eBualit&. %he ob3ious strateg& for Maduro #ill be to #ra" himself in the mantle of Cha3e=8s memor& #hile @enriBue Ca"riles #ill li5el& resume his message of bringing Cha3e=8s social #elfare "olicies to a sustainable "ath. 2nother Buestion is #hether or not the militar& and securit& forces #ill ta5e on the role of "assi3e s"ectator e/"ected in a consolidated democrac& or if the& #ill directl& or co3ertl& interfere #ith the cam"aign. Rousseff8s )*0* "residential cam"aign ad3isers are li5el& to again "la& an im"ortant role in the "ro-Cha3e= electoral "ush. the tem"tation for "olitical inter3ention b& some sectors in the militar& #ill be immense if re"orts about their lin5s to narcotraffic5ing and organised crime are correct. France. %he communists #ere the agents of modernisation in Russia and China. India has #restled #ith modernit& in an en3ironment riddled #ith the uncertainties of democratic go3ernment since inde"endence in 0?. hel"ing to ma5e this ha""en is e/actl& the sort of res"onsibilit& that goes #ith the regional leadershi" role 7ra=il has been claiming in !outh 2merica. In "re3ious centuries. 7ut if he #ere to #in in a trul& clean race it could create the conditions needed for a national "olitical reconciliation. #ith a bloc com"osed largel& of countries of the global south. because the& offered the o""ressed nationalities of the %sarist em"ire autonom&. #ith its relati3el& small econom& and "o"ulation. 4i5e India. the #orld8s second-most "o"ulous countr& and its largest "arliamentar& democrac&. dri3en b& the intelligentsia. %@E fifth 7rics summit in Curban might #ell re"resent the emergence of an interesting ne# "o#er bloc. Indeed.made "ossible b& the radical transformation of a declining 2siatic des"otism b& re3olutionar& means. 'ose"h :issariono3ich CFugash3ili. su""orted b& 7ritain. %he ne#est member of the 7rics bloc. manufacture and ser3icing of digital soft#are. %he u"coming election in :ene=uela is going to be difficult and di3isi3e. Continuing tensions could not deter India from transforming itself into a leading centre for the design. 2ll of this is an e/"ected "art of electoral "olitics. cultural and religious communities that #ill become a united nation than5s to an 2frican nationalist intelligentsia. the 9! and 'a"an. Russia8s stri3ing to become a #orld "o#er #as stifled b& the bac5#ardness of its "olitical institutions.I. the communists reasserted China8s national so3ereignt&. modernist intellectuals dashed their heads against the iron-clad defences of the ancien regime in their attem"ts to o3erthro# %sarism.

Peace and stabilit& in our region are essential for the realisation of !28s continental ambitions.its industrial econom& managed to address the needs of less than )*_ of its small "o"ulation. L%he !hifting 4andsca"e of 4atin 2merican Regionalism. It #as that aim . ProBuest.. %oda& 9N2!9R has a formall& organi=ed structure #ith a "ermanent secretariat that #as initiall& headed b& the former 2rgentine "resident N<stor Kirchner. reflecting mutual irritation that has been alle3iated some#hat during the current Rousseff administration. . Its boldest mo3e came in )*0* #ith a Foint "ro"osal de3elo"ed #ith %ur5e& to deal #ith Iran8s nuclear "rogram. 2lthough other leaders res"onded to the 7ra=ilian initiati3e #ith 3ar&ing degrees of enthusiasm .and "resumabl& 9!-led .more than an& regional goals . Issue (. 2s one of the so-called 7RIC! (along #ith Russia.the e/clusi3el& !outh 2merican organi=ation a""ears to ha3e ta5en hold.. 7ra=il has for the most "art "referred to deal #ith the 9nited !tates bilaterall&. 2t the same time.Peru3ian President 2lan Garc a sho#ed little interest and Colombian President 2l3aro 9ribe #as notabl& resistant . amor"hous grou"ing. China. %he 4ula go3ernment de3oted considerable attention to building the 9nion of !outh 2merican Nations (9N 2!9R1. Februar& )*0).that led 7ra=il to "la& a leading role in the 9N "eace5ee"ing mission in @aiti starting in )**.). >n a continent #here its relati3e "ros"erit& attracts thousands of legal and illegal migrants. order and securit& in the oceans on #hich the countr&8s international trade relies ha3e reBuired !2 to reeBui" and modernise its na3&. and has been #ar& of an& hemis"here-#ide . Get !28s economic muscle on the continent comes #ith a number of obligations.e@erting po#er on an international scale ( ifter/ 1.and "articularl& its final &ears. India. 7ra=il has de3elo"ed more e/"ansi3e economic and "olitical roles #ithin the region. (Michael. !28s economic de3elo"ment #as distorted b& #hite racism . and also tried its hand in Middle Eastern di"lomac&. such as the Free %rade 2rea of the 2mericas (F%221. a "ro"osal that emerged from the first !ummit of the 2mericas in Miami in 0??. !2 necessaril& is a status Buo "o#er.arrangements.associating #ith the four others.M Current @istor&. and has been a serious. >n the #orld stage.toda& it has the #orld8s si/th largest econom& . Curing the 4ula era . It has acti3el& "artici"ated in the Dorld %rade >rgani=ation. #hen the countr& #itnessed remar5able economic 3italit& and gro#ing influence in global affairs . 2dFunct Professor of 4atin 2merican !tudies at Georgeto#n 9ni3ersit&8s !chool of Foreign !er3ice. :olume 000. and !outh 2frica1. res"ected "la&er in the Grou" of )* in the conte/t of the recent economic crisis.7ra=il #as notabl& dela&ed in "romoting regional organi=ations in !outh 2merica. #hich e3ol3ed from a fairl& loose. it #as not until )*** that then-President Fernando @enriBue Cardoso of 7ra=il con3ened the first meeting of !outh 2merican leaders. 7ut 7ra=il8s sheer si=e and economic and "olitical "o#er made such a turn to#ard greater engagement #ith the region highl& "lausible.7ra=il became increasingl& acti3e in social de3elo"ment efforts in 2frica. "articularl& the 9nited !tates. For close to a centur&. 7ra=il has em"hasi=ed alliances #ith other emerging "o#ers more than #ith other 4atin 2merican countries. bac5#ard "olitical institutions frustrated its "otential. >ne of 7ra=il8s main "riorities has been to secure a "ermanent seat on the 9nited Nations !ecurit& Council. "g. 2lthough Mercosur #as set u" in the earl& 0??*s. 7ra=il has strengthened relationshi"s that are aimed at enhancing its le3erage #ith traditional "o#ers . I+-+0. 7ra=il8s accommodating a""roach differed shar"l& from Dashington8s more hard-line "osture. %ashma1 For such a significant regional "o#er and emerging global "la&er . Moreo3er. >3er the "ast do=en &ears 7ra=il8s a""roach to#ard its neighbors has been substantiall& sha"ed b& t#o connected obFecti3esJ the desire to 5ee" things under control in its immediate s"here of influence. Bra6ilian egemony on t e rise no# --. and its "ursuit of global as"irations. President of the Inter-2merican Cialogue. %he countr& has also sought a significant 3oice in other global arenas.

2s a result of the end of the Cold Dar. not least. 7ra=il has begun to thin5 of itself as a regional "o#er.+(-. for the first time in its histor&. 7ut 7ra=il has also. !tudies. L7ra=il8s Rising 2mbition in a !hifting Global 7alance of Po#er.++ Bra6il #ill re"olt if *( steps into t eir sp ere of infl&ence (otero/ 1? – director of the 7ra=il Institute of the Doodro# Dilson International Center for !cholars. and #ith a good deal of hesitanc&. 2t the third summit held in Cusco in Cecember )**. Georgeto#n 9ni3ersit& (Paulo. historicall& the nation8s #orld "ers"ecti3e has been hea3il& conditioned b& geogra"h&. President Cardoso set 7ra=il in a ne# direction in regional affairs. there has been a maFor de3elo"ment in 7ra=il’s relations #ith the other states in its region. both economic and "olitical. along #ith China and India.M 'ournal of 4atin 2merican !tudies.Bra6il DA – Lin. the 5e& foreign "olic& obFecti3es #ere the consolidation of the national territor& through the "eaceful resolution of all border dis"utes and the "ursuit of closer ties #ith a then emerging 9nited !tates. and 7ra=ilianist #ho s"ecialises in the stud& of 0?th and )*th Centur& 4atin 2merica. reinforced b& the fact that in 0??. #ith its immediate neighbours in !outh 2merica. >ne hundred &ears later.X at the ninth Pan. not 4atin 2merica. %his #as a conscious decision deliberatel& ta5en in 0??)WE. "ages (0WX0.) . Issue !u""lement s0. 2t the summit held in 7rasomlia in Ma& )**X the communit& became a 9nion of !outh 2merican Nations (9N2!9R1. adFunct lecturer at Edmund 2. 7ra=il has continued to su""ort the #or5 of the >rganisation of 2merican !tates. 7ra=il is considered internationall&. acti3el& "ursued a "olic& of engagement. em"hasi=ing on 7ra=il in "articular.. a !outh 2merican Communit& of Nations #as formed. 2lso for the first time. in order to assert the countr&8s autonom& #hile "ushing for integration #ith its immediate neighbours. the intensification of the "rocess of globalisation and. Dalsh !chool of Foreign !er3ice. in the late nineteenth centur&. during the 4ula administration.2merican Conference in 7ogotam. and its "residents ha3e attended all fi3e !ummits of the 2mericas held since Cecember 0??. the economic and "olitical integration of !outh 2merica has been the "rinci"al focus of 7ra=ilian foreign "olic& under President 4ula. including trade. President Cardoso hosted the first summit of !outh 2merican "residents in 7rasomlia in )***. 7ra=il has attended the annual meetings of the Rio Grou" of 4atin 2merican and Caribbean states. It consisted of 0) nations. indeed. as one of the ^emerging global "o#ers’ in the first half of the t#ent&-first centur&. uncertaint& and ambi3alence. Me/ico Foined the 9nited !tates and Canada in ^North 2merica’. 2t the same time. Wall Bra6il controls Latin American infl&ence.Issue *E . L7ra=il and L4atin 2mericaM. it is argued in Itamarat&. Im"ro3ed relations #ith its !outh 2merican neighbours and. founded in 0?. "age . 7ra=il has "la&ed an increasingl& im"ortant role in NorthW!outh and !outhW!outh relations and has been a 5e& "la&er in discussions on a #hole range of global issues.XI. Cardoso sought to define 7ra=il8s . %he region in Buestion. M2 in 'ournalism and Public 2ffairs from the 2merican 9ni3ersit&. Cecember )*0*1--@24 2lthough 7ra=il has begun to assert itself on the global stage in the t#ent&-first centur& . uni3ersit& "rofessor.English historian. htt"J--Fournals.. fundamental "olitical and economic change in 7ra=il itself. PhC in @istor& at the 9ni3ersit& of 4ondon (4eslie. including Gu&ana and !uriname. #hile resisting the 9! agenda for the economic integration of the #estern hemis"here.increase' *( presence 'isr&pts regional po#er !alances Bet ell/ 1? . not onl& in its long-term economic and strategic interests but because.org-abstractQ!**)))0+a0****XXa1--@24 7ra=il and !outh 2merica since the End of the Cold Dar %here is one final t#ist to this stor& of 7ra=il’s relationshi" #ith ^2memrica 4atina’-^4atin 2merica’. and is no# gi3ing its su""ort to the "ro"osed creation of a communit& of all E) 4atin 2merican and Caribbean states. reform of multilateral institutions and climate change. founded in 0?X+.cambridge. es"eciall& under the "residencies of Fernando @enriBue Cardoso (0??IW)**E1 and 4ui= Inamcio 4ula da !il3a ()**EW0*1. regional "o#er is a necessar& condition for global "o#er. the "rofound changes in #orld "olitics that follo#ed.2ugust )*0*. ho#e3er. Dith the nation8s "osition strengthened b& the legitimac& of its democratic regime and successful economic stabilisation "olicies. :olume .M Pers"ecti3es on the Changing Global Cistribution of Po#er :olume E*. From the earl& &ears of the re"ublic. 7ra=il’s "resence and influence in the #orld has gro#n significantl&. is !outh 2merica.

or ha3en8t managed. after forgi3ing the countr&8s "resident.. if it goes be&ond the 9rugua& Round and correct the as&mmetries it enshrined in agricultural trade. there has been an anti-2merican strand among 7ra=ilian elites . in the #orse h&"othesis. ". %here are 3arious "ossible reasons for the 4ula go3ernment8s lac5 of a""etite to mediate in regional conflicts. had little im"act and did not alter the mismatch bet#een 7ra=il8s assertions of leadershi" at the global le3el and its modest interest in assumeing the ris5s of leadershi" closer to home. successfull& mediated the 0??I border dis"ute bet#een Peru and Ecuador. In the re3erberations of the Dall !treet colla"se. !i/ months later. he con3ened in 7ras lia the first-e3er summit of !outh 2merican "residents (>EI. Chile and 2rgentina. ^%he Iranian ad3enture is incom"rehensible. Cardoso made clear 7ra=il8s sce"ticism of the continent-#ide integration "roFect the 9nited !tates #as "romoting b& #a& of the "ro"osed Free %rade 2rea of the 2mericas (Cardoso.s"here of influence b& engaging its !outh 2merican neighbours in a strateg& of economic integration inde"endent of the 9!. 7ras lia also sho#ed no interest in hel"ing to lo#er tensions and a3oid a "ossible militar& confrontation bet#een :ene=uela and Colombia. %his strand is li5el& to be manifest in the foreign "olic& of an& go3ernment of an ascendant 7ra=il . a bold mo3e calculated to enhance 7ra=il8s credentials as a candidate to a "ermanent seat on the 9N!C. s"ea5ing at the %hird !ummit of the 2mericas in guebec Cit&. In the first &ear of his go3ernment. %he "o#erful 7ra=ilian National 7an5 for Ce3elo"ment (7NCE!1 became an instrument of the regional "olic&. %he 9! recession and a general disa""ointment #ith 9! President 7arac5 >bama8s timid "olicies for the hemis"here W on Cuba. reflecti3e of his talent as a charismatic leader #ho lo3es the limelight and does #ell on the stum". 4ula8s attem"t to bring Caracas and 7ogota closer together in 2ugust )*0*. In his first tri" abroad as "resident. scholars and o"inionma5ers conducted in )**0 and )**X indicated decreased su""ort for "ursuing relations #ith the region (Ce !ou=a. mostl& in the de3elo"ing #orld. 7ra=il assumed the militar& command of the 9N stabilisation mission in @aiti. In contrast #ith the Cardoso go3ernment. %he regional acti3ism of the 4ula administration led his go3ernment to act to defuse the internal crisis in 7oli3ia. it has been more than #illing to stand u" to the 9nited !tates. 2n amalgamation of 2frican descendants indigenous "eo"les and Euro"ean and 2sian immigrants #ho s"ea5 Portuguese. %here #as also the ill-disguised confrontation bet#een 7ras lia and Dashington o3er ho# to res"ond to the 'une )**? constitutional crisis in @onduras. for unceremoniousl& nationalising Petrobras assets in 7oli3ia. )**0. #hich border 7ra=il. #ith the 9!. @istoricall&. reacting to accusations of harbouring F2RC rebel grou"s in :ene=uela. )**?1. and "romoted the creation of ne# ones. both 7ra=il8s "artners in Mercosur. after ChA3e= se3ered di"lomatic relations #ith Colombia. ZF%22R #ould be irrele3ant or. ^%here is no Buestion that this is about e/clusion. !ur"risingl&. %he 4ula go3ernment8s une/"ected and ultimatel& unsuccessful inter3ention in the @onduras crisis sho#ed again that #hile 7ra=il has not generall& sought to assert its regional leadershi". the ban5 had more than [0I. 4ula sta&ed the course on regional affairs. In mid-)**. the !outh 2merican Cefence Council and the Communit& of 4atin 2merica and Caribbean !tates in order to "romote faster integration. he said in guito. 7ra=il e/"anded staffs of its embassies in the region and established a total of EI ne# ones. such as the 9nion of !outh 2merican Nations. 7ra=il bloc5ed further negotiations of the F%22 . to mediate’. ho#e3er. Nonetheless. ". 7ra=il sought to e/"and e/isting regional mechanisms. substantiall& changed 7ra=il8s st&le of di"lomac&. b& "ro"osing the accession of :ene=uela. )**X1. )**X1.( billion in lines of credit e/tended to countries interested in contracting 7ra=ilian com"anies8 ser3ices (7IC. the 4ula administration did not get in3ol3ed in a dis"ute bet#een 2rgentina and 9rugua&. )**E. such as Mercosur. From the earl& da&s of the re"ublic. in Cecember )**X 7ra=il con3ened a summit to launch the 4atin 2merica and Caribbean Communit& of Nations W an e3ent "lanned to highlight 7ra=ilian leadershi" in regional affairs and underline the 9!8s loss of influence. )**+1. that his countr&8s di"lomac& #ould ^blossom’. the region is seen more as a source of "otential "roblems than as "resenting o""ortunities for 7ra=il. in fa3our of a more 3ocal foreign "olic&. 7ra=ilians do not see themsel3es as 4atin 2mericans. +X1. undesirable’. )***1. 4ula described 7ra=il as the region8s ^natural leader’ and "roclaimed that the countr& #as ^read& to assume its greatness’ (:eFa. #hile "rotecting intellectual "ro"ert&. %he ne# "resident. o3er the o"eration of a cellulose "lant on the 9rugua&an side of the 9rugua& Ri3er. 0( 'une )*0*1. es"eciall& since there are 3arious conflicts closer to us #hich #e ha3en8t tried. trade and regional securit& W strengthened the hand of 5e& figures in 4ula8s foreign "olic& 5no#n for their lac5 of s&m"ath& to the 9!. E3o Morales. business e/ecuti3es. and reinforced a tendenc& to distance 7ra=il from Dashington. 7& )**?. !uch dis"utes generate little interest and no "olitical di3idends in 7ra=il. there are a fe# indications that suggest that the 4ula go3ernment has come to see the region as 3aluable to the e/ercise of leadershi" in so far as it hel"s to "roFect 7ra=il8s o""osition to 9! dominance. Moreo3er. E1J ^the F%22 #ill be #elcome if its creation is a ste" to#ards access to the most d&namic mar5etsN if it is an effecti3e #a& to shared rules on anti-dum"ingN if it reduces non-tariff barriersN if it a3oids the "rotectionist distortions of the good sanitar& rulesN if. Ecuador. 7ra=il8s acti3ism in regional affairs did not e/tend to efforts to settle dis"utes bet#een neighbours W a "oint not lost on critics of 4ula8s Iran initiati3e. In !e"tember )***. #hich had. the onl& countr& emerging in the 9nited !tates8s so-called ^bac5 &ard’. #here it should ha3e a better chance of success. it fosters our "eo"les technological ca"acit&N and. the& ha3e been Buite distant from their immediate neighbours (7ethell. . %his finding suggests that !outh 2merica and 4atin 2merica are generall& "ercei3ed b& 7ra=ilian elites as a "oor "latform for 7ra=il to "roFect itself as a global "o#er. Buoted in the 7arrionue3o. about e/cluding the 9nited !tates’ (Peter @a5im. If it does not do so. according to Clo3is 7rigagpo (>sa3a. furthermore. 2 sur3e& of senior di"lomats. noted !<rgio 2maral (%he Economist. "reci"itated b& a cou" against President Manuel ]ela&a. )**?1.

ho#e3er. @a3ing the second largest blac5 "o"ulation in the #orld.)( and 4ula #as in3ited as a s"ecial guest to the 2frican 9nion summit in !irte. a useful strategic ma" of 7ra=il’s engagement #ith 2frica #hich correlates strongl& #ith 7ra=il’s broader foreign "olic& goals as an emerging global "o#er.9cE . 7ra=il has hosted a number of large second trac5 initiati3es #ith 2frican academics and "olic& thin5ers and #as behind the creation of the !outh 2merica2frica summit. Its engagement in 2frica is generall& #ell- recei3ed.I=sB]s51--@24 7ra=il’s ne# 2frica strateg&J "olitical di"lomac&. inde"endent researcher and consultant s"ecialising in "olitical econom& issues in 2frica. L9nderstanding 7ra=il’s ne# dri3e for 2frica. Political di"lomac&.?. 9ni3ersit& of Pretoria. 7ra=il’s relations #ith 2frica can be neatl& di3ided into three broad categories. and "articularl& in countries li5e 2ngola #here the 4ula administration has ad3anced e/isting cultural and historical lin5ages through di"lomatic e/changes and a range of agreements.’ )?Dith these #ords 4ula set a "olitical "recedence for his administration and those that follo#. >n a "ersonal note. #herein certain 7ra=ilian com"anies ha3e maintained a long standing interest (es"eciall& in luso"hone 2frica1.com. In turn. the& certainl& do offer %his has been a "rimar& feature of 7ra=ilian foreign "olic& under President 4ula.+0. >ur region is our home . construction and agriculture be&ond the former Portuguese colonies to other "arts of 2frica re"resent a ne# era of commercial e/changes bet#een 2frica and 7ra=il. 7ra=il’s relati3e success in social de3elo"ment "rogrammes in its o#n countr& has made it a "rimar& e/"orter of ^social technolog&’ to other de3elo"ing countries. #e are committed to share the destin& and challenges of the region. Curing this time 7ra=il has doubled the number of its embassies in 2frica to E*. 4ula has also "ledged his commitment to alle3iating "o3ert& in 2frica #hen he lea3es office at the end of )*0*.E. !outh 2frica (4&al. %he second categor& is trade and in3estment. %he 7ra=ilian Ce3elo"ment 7an5 (7NCE!1 and the 7ra=ilian 2gricultural Research Cor"oration (EM7R2P21 ha3e rolled out a number of de3elo"ment initiati3es . #hich #ill test the real #orld a""lication of 7ra=il’s instructi3e lessons for de3elo"ing countries. #ho single-handedl& changed the face of 7ra=ilian international engagement and multilateral acti3ism during his t#o terms in office.Ik.umn..)*0*. 7ra=il’s multi"olar a""roach re"rioritised the de3elo"ing !outh through 3arious multilateral forums and "laced s"ecial attention on 2frica through un"recedented direct attentio n and 3isits. 7ra=il seems to ha3e o"ted for a middle-ground a""roach bet#een the Chinese-st&le of engagement H #hich is highl& "olitical and su""orted b& the #eight of the state-run machiner& behind in3estments and de3elo"ment initiati3esHand the Indian a""roachH#hich is characterised more b& "ri3ate sector in3estments and entre"reneurial acti3ities across the continent. 2frica is clearl& an im"ortant arena for the e/ercise of 7ra=il’s ne# foreign "olic& a""roaches. >n closer ins"ection. de3elo"ment and de3elo"ment co-o"eration ha3e become an im"ortant com"onent of 7ra=ilian foreign "olic&. %his has become an im"ortant tool in is foreign "olic& in the de3elo"ing #orld.lib.. and de3elo"ment through increased globalisation. @o#e3er. ad3ancing the historical 7ra=ilian notion of res"onsible "ragmatism #ith uni3ersal democratic "rinci"les. their recognition of 7ra=il as a leading global "o#er. Dhile these ma& be interrelated. 2frica also needs in3estment in resource e/traction. Gordon Institute of 7usiness !cience. beside reliable access to strategic resources li5e oil. #hich certainl& a""ears to be a strong dri3er of 7ra=ilian foreign "olic& on the continent. es"eciall& in its "ursuit of "ermanent membershi" of the 9nited Nations !ecurit& Council (9N!C1 and. and de3elo"ment co-o"eration. 2frica is an ideal location for rolling out 7ra=ilian-st&led social "rogrammes and to "ut in "ractise nuanced a""roaches to enter"rise and technolog&-led de3elo"ment. 4ula has 3isited no less than 0? 2frican countries in eight tri"s. ^!outh 2merica is a "riorit& in 7ra=ilian e/ternal "olic&. 7ra=il also see5s "olitical su""ort from 2frican countries in 3arious global forums. %his is a continent in need of "olitical su""ort and better re"resentation through functional coalitions at multilateral forums. in construction and ci3il engineering (all areas of commercial focus for 7ra=ilian com"anies1.)X In )**( 4ula stated that.Bra6il DA – Africa War Impact Brailian egemony sol"es Africa #ar W ite/ 1? W PhC in Political !tudies from the 9ni3ersit& of Ca"e %o#n.tandfonline. %he first categor& is "olitical di"lomac& and 7ra=il’s multilateral engagement #ith 2frica . and is sure to be a "rinci"al dri3er of foreign "olic& in 2frica. geo"olitics and multilateral engagement 7ra=il’s "rioritising of 2frica in the current "eriod can be attributed largel& to President 4ula. 9nder 4ula.E* 2ll these efforts ha3e hel"ed build 7ra=ilian ^soft "o#er’ in 2frica. as #ell as increased technolog& and 5no#ledge transfers.M !outh 2frican 'ournal of International 2ffairs. 7ra=il’s "olitical ad3ances ha3e also brought targeted funding.)+!ince ta5ing office in )**E. 2sia and 4atin 2merica. the recent surge of interest sho#n b& emerging 7ra=ilian MNCs in resource e/traction. in )**?.De also feel oursel3es connected to 2frica through cultural and historical threads. credit lines and technical assistance to 2frica. more generall&.e="0. 4ib&a. Finall&. neo-mercantilism and de3elo"ment coo"eration 7ra=il’s contem"orar& relations #ith 2frica ma& at first a""ear to be a com"le/ H e3en "oorl& defined H mi/ of "olitical alliances (old and ne#1 and commercial interests.0*X*-0*))*. htt"J--###. under"inned b& foreign "olic& "riorities that ha3e 3aried from administration to administration in 7ra=il..edu-doi-abs-0*.

L!E%%ING %@E !%2GE F>R D>R4C D2R III. sa&. see5s "ri3ileged status for its contractors and de3elo"ment "lans. htt"J--###. . 2frican su""ort for 7ra=il’s grand "lans of global go3ernance reform is im"ortant. 7e&ond this. 7ra=il.M Rabid %iger Ne#sletter. li5e an& emerging "o#er in 2frica. 2frica is an ocean of troubled #aters.across the continent. Geo"oliticall& s"ea5ing. #hich ha3e become an im"ortant "art of 7ra=il’s commercial e/"ansion and dri3e for de3elo"ment coo"eration in 2frica. a "ro/& #ar alone ma& not induce the Great Po#ers to fight each other . outside "o#ers can more easil& find client states there than. Ci3il #ars in the Congo (the countr& formerl& 5no#n as ]aire1.not to mention in that she also "robabl& alread& has the 7omb. 'a"an1 are "o#ers unto themsel3es and don8t need an& $hel". Certainl&.financial. engineering. >f course. as #ell as occasional brushfire and other #ars (than5s in "art to $national$ borders that cut across tribal ones1 turn into a reall& nast& ste#.rabidtigers. !udan and other countries.com-rtn-ne#sletter3)n?. R#anda. In turn. #ho are #illing to "ush the button rather than ris5 being seen as #ish&-#ash& in the face of a mortal threat and o3erthro#n.html %he Rabid %iger ProFect belie3es that a nuclear #ar is most li5el& to start in 2frica. #ill be described in more detail in the t#o sections that follo#. an 2frican #ar can attract outside in3ol3ement 3er& Buic5l& . :er& fe# countries in 2frica are beholden to an& "articular "o#er. these ^on-the ground’ efforts H #hich go be&ond high "rofile but largel& 3acuous "olitical 3isits H ha3e not gone unnoticed among 2frican leaders. India. etc. %his is es"eciall& the case in the 9N #here each nation has a 3ote and 7ra=il is 3&ing for a "ermanent seat on the 9N !ecurit& Council. Large-scale African conflict #ill 'ra# in o&tsi'e po#ers an' escalate to n&clear #ar De&tsc ?. !outh 2frica is a maFor e/ce"tion in this res"ect . %he role of 7NCE! and EM7R2P2. and some "eo"le lo3e to go fishing. %hus. 2frica is o"en range. and domestic instabilit& in ]imbab#e. the fact of #hich has gone a long #a& in de3elo"ing 7ra=il’s strategic interests and "romoting the countr& in the e&es of 2fricans. From a geo"olitical or multilateral "ers"ecti3e. No3 0X.$ than5 &ou. De83e got all too man& rabid tigers and "otential rabid tigers. W Founder of Rabid %iger ProFect (Political Ris5 Consulting and Research Firm focusing on Russia and Eastern Euro"e 'effre&. or 2sia #here man& of the countries (China. such a stri5e #ould in the first "lace ha3e been facilitated b& outside hel" . %hus. 7ut an 2frican nuclear stri5e can ignite a much broader conflagration. !omalia and !ierra 4eone. in Euro"e #here the "olitical lines ha3e long since been dra#n. if the other "o#ers are interested in a fight. scientific.

E3er& human being #ho e/"resses the innate desire to "reser3e the human genetic "ool through the natural mechanism of re"roduction is "otentiall& at ris5.ill &n're's of millions if not stoppe'2 It t reatens to e@ting&is life on t e planet Mathiu. and nuclear non"roliferation negotiations ZXR. Im"ortantl&.e3en the mere li3ing out of a lifetime . the countr& has defied orthodo/ thin5ing on de3elo"ment . on the other hand. also sought to challenge the "harmaceutical industr& on restricti3e "ricing "olicies. the 3ector is humanit& itself. 7ra=il’s cham"ioning of free and uni3ersal access to 2R:s earned #orld#ide res"ect among "ublic health ad3ocates Z0*R. 7ra=il successfull& confronted and negotiated a satisfactor& resolution to barriers im"osed on drug a3ailabilit& b& the 2greement on %radeRelated 2s"ects of Intellectual Pro"ert& Rights (%RIP!1.Bra6il DA – AID( Impact Bra6il regional lea'ers ip is . ). %he "lague toll of tens of millions in t#o decades #as a 3eritable holocaust. that 7ra=ilian di"lomac& has been "articularl& note#orth&. bet#een 0E. 9nited !tates of 2merica (7ra=il and the Frame#or5 Con3ention on %obacco ControlJ Global @ealth Ci"lomac& as !oft Po#er. L2IC!J Ce3astationqM 4e/isNe/is1 E3er& age has its 5iller. trade. 7ut 2ids is #ithout "recedent. %he dail& toll in Ken&a is I**. the nice "erson in the ne/t seat in the bus.* million Euro"eans. beginning #ith negotiations on access to medicines for treatment of @I:-2IC! .E. 7ra=il became the first de3elo"ing countr& to offer free 2R: treatment to @I:-2IC! "atients des"ite claims b& the Dorld 7an5 that such a "olic& #as not cost-effecti3e Z00R. 7ut there #as "roffered an e/"lanationJ It #as the honour of bathing a battlefield #ith &oung blood.*** 2fricans #ill die toda&. It is com"arable onl& to the 7lac5 Ceath of the Middle 2ges in the terror it e3o5es and the gra3es it fills. 9nited Kingdom.X million "eo"le are alread& deadN . as Nunn and colleagues argue. +. California. in #hich generals #ould use soldiers as cannon fodderN the li3es of 0* million &oung men #ere sacrificed for a cause that #as Fudged to be more #orth#hile than the dreams .( and 0EI). 7& combining economic gro#th #ith "rogressi3e domestic social "olicies. 4ui= Carlos C agas/ an' %homas E. In this #a&.org-article-fetch>bFect.0E(0_)FFournal. (E1 Graduate !chool of Public @ealth. !an Ciego !tate 9ni3ersit&. 2frica Ne#s. 4ondon !chool of @&giene P %ro"ical Medicine. 7ecause of its constitutional reBuirement for eBuit& in access to antiretro3iral (2R:1 thera"& Z?R. @I: is not satisfied until &ears of stigma and e/cruciating torture ha3e been #rought on its 3ictim. %here is no#here to run and no#here to hide. more than a million li3es #ere lost at the 7attle of the !omme alone.the "lague. Dith the 9! go3ernment aligning #ith "o#erful cor"orate interests. 'ul& 0I. energ& "olic&. but it #ill be nothing com"ared to the 3iral holocaustJ !o far. 4ondon.5illed a full . ho#e3er.E million infected #orld#ide (). 0X. 7ut unli5e the "lague.M 2"ril )*. )***. !an Ciego.un#illing "artici"ants in a March of the Camned. XI "er cent of them 2fricanN as a matter of fact. setting a trend that #as to become fairl& common. 7ut it #as a death that could be a3oided b& the sim"le e/"edient of changing addresses and #hose 3ector could be seen and e/terminated. toda& easil& cured b& antibiotics and "re3ented b& 3accines . 4ast &ear alone. such as %hailand and !outh 2frica. Dith 2ids.2IC! treatment in other countries. )K W (Mutuma.action6uriOinfo_E2doi _)F0*. Dhile other countries. a Buarter of the "o"ulation of Euro"e. 4ondon.X million li3es #ent do#n the drain. )*0*.0***)E)Pre"resentationOPCF1--@24 7ra=il’s Ne# Prominence in Global @ealth 7ra=il has become increasingl& "rominent in international relations in recent &ears through its leadershi" in climate change Z(R. a success stor& that has ser3ed as a role model for the e/"ansion of global su""ort for @I:. 9nited Kingdom. %here has ne3er been fought a #ar on these shores that #as so #anton in its thirst for human blood."losmedicine. "atriotism or sim"l& racial "ride.of a generation. htt"J--###. 2ids.. %he 7lac5 Ceath . 2nd #hereas death b& "lague #as a merciful fi3e da&s of agon&.ey to sol"e AID( Kelle& Lee. AID( #ill . the countr& has seen a dramatic decline in 2IC! related morbidit& and mortalit& as a result of its treatment "rogram. No"otny/ 1? W (01 Centre on Global Change and @ealth."med. 2ids does not come at a time of scientific innocenceJ It flies in the face of s"ace e/"loration. is a holocaust #ithout e3en a lame or bigoted . 7ra=il hel"ed bridge a chasm bet#een "ublic health and trade "olic& through its national @I:-2IC! "olic& Z0)R.I million of them 2fricans1 carr& the seeds of their ine3itable demise . Curing the First Dorld Dar. It has been in the realm of global health. the mani"ulation of genes and the ma""ing of the human genome. and the "olitical #ill to address the issue. ()1 Inde"endent Researcher W Public @ealth and %rade Policies.

It is difficult to remember an& time in histor& #hen the sur3i3al of the human race #as so ho"elessl& in Feo"ard&. It is death contracted not in the battlefield but in bedrooms and other 3enues of furti3e intimac&. It is sim"l& a #aste. .Fustification.

%herefore 9nasur functions strictl& as an intergo3ernmental institution based on the res"ect of national so3ereignt& and autonomous "olic& ma5ing. ma5ing !outh 2merica a securit& region. @o#e3er. 7ra=il has been relati3el& successful in these regard. Ne3ertheless. If the& are obliged to "la& the traditional great-"o#er game of #inners and losers.0*X*-*0.M %hird Dorld guarterl&. It de"ends. although this has not assured an agreement in multilateral trade negotiations at the D%>.ey to B9IC C ristensen/ 14 . 2t the regional le3el the council has successfull& "romoted the establishment of a Common Cefence Council in 9nasur. but good management is something #e can choose to "ro3ide. %oronto !tar. Dith good luc5 and good management. signiTcant economic trade and in3estment lin5s. No. #hich are members. the region functions #ell from the "ers"ecti3e of 7ra=ilian de3elo"ment and global "o#er "roFection. 2nd #e ha3e certainl& been gi3en the right incenti3esJ %he holida& from histor& that #e ha3e enFo&ed since the earl& 8?*s ma& be dra#ing to an end. 2"ril )Erd. the global securit& order is still dominated b& the 9!2 and its Destern allies. %&ltipolarity . but #eaning oursel3es a#a& from it should not be a bigger mountain to climb than some of the other changes #e ha3e alread& made in the #a& #e li3e. %his has created a situation in #hich the traditional Destern "o#ers increasingl& need to negotiate matters of securit& and economic go3ernance #ith emerging "o#ers. %he rising "o#ers must be absorbed into a s&stem that em"hasi=es co-o"eration and ma5es room for them/ rather than one that deals in confrontation and ra# militar& "o#er. on "reser3ing and e/tending the multilateral s&stem that #e ha3e been building since the end of Dorld Dar II. 7ut the "roliferation of nuclear #ea"ons to ne# "o#ers is a maFor challenge to the stabilit& of the s&stem. !outh 2merica is not a cohesi3e bloc. militar& historian and lecturer on international affairs. @o#e3er. L%he End of DarM.ey to pre"enting n&clear #ar Dyer/ C?E (G#&nne. htt"J--###. 2dd in the huge im"ending shifts in the great-"o#er s&stem as China and India gro# to ri3al the 9nited !tates in GCP o3er the ne/t E* or . and 7ra=il is still far from gaining a "ermanent "osition on the 9N !ecurit& Council and cannot e3en rel& on e/"licit su""ort from China and Russia. #e ma& be able to ride out the ne/t half-centur& #ithout the first-magnitude catastro"he of a global nuclear #ar. >ne is that !outh 2merica is im"ortant in 7ra=il’s geo"olitical strateg& and in the aim of creating a 7ra=ilian s"here of interest. It has sought to defend national autonom&.E+I?(. gi3en the right incenti3es. 0)-E*-)**. Relations #ith !outh 2merican countries and the other countries of the 7RIC! grou"ing ha3e been "rioritised. E. #ith the creation of the !outh 2merican Cefence Council. 7ra=il has "rioritised !outhW!outh coo"eration in order to reach these aims. as #ell as a "latform for 7ra=il’s com"etiti3e insertion in the global econom&. 2rguabl& 7ra=il’s main "riorit& has mo3ed from !outh 2merican coo"eration to its coo"eration #ith the other members of 7RIC!. and another great-"o#er #ar. "robabl& since before #e #ere e3en full& human. %he coalition has become an increasingl& im"ortant "la&er in 5e& multilateral institutions. 7ra=ilian strategies ha3e been broadl& successful . "" )(0W)X+. %his strateg& has been relati3el& successful as 7RIC! are increasingl& inVuential "la&ers in global economic go3ernance. :ol. fought ne/t time #ith nuclear #ea"ons. but the "otential certainl& e/ists for a maFor die-bac5 of human "o"ulation 2 De cannot command the good luc5. abo3e all. L7ra=il’s Foreign Polic& Priorities. )*0E. #hich #ill hit some countries much harder than others.doi. as national interests and strategies di3erge signiTcantl&. and infrastructural de3elo"ments im"ro3ing access to 7ra=ilian e/"ort mar5ets in 2sia and in !outh 2merica itself. )*0E. !o are the coming crises.org-0*. ma& be lur5ing in our future 2 %he $firebrea5$ against nuclear #ea"ons use that #e began building after @iroshima and Nagasa5i has held for #ell o3er half a centur& no#. %his builds on t#o main logics. %his means that !outh 2merica has increasingl& become 7ra=il’s s"here of inVuence . and ma& dri3e some to des"eration.commondreams.htm1 Dar is dee"l& embedded in our histor& and our culture.. htt"J--d/. >ur ho"es for mitigating the se3erit& of the coming en3ironmental crises also de"end on earl& and concerted global . )..2ssociate Professor at 2alborg 9ni3ersit&.-0)E*-*I. strengthen its econom& and gain more inVuence in the global "olitical arena. PhC in !ocialog& and !ocial Condition (!teen Fr&ba.org-3ie#s*. mostl& en3ironmental in origin.Bra6il DA – B9IC( Impact Bra6ils regional infl&ence is .((I(XI1--@24 !ince )**E 7ra=il has been acti3el& engaged in an agenda of diffusion of global "o#er and of gaining more inVuence in global go3ernance both in the economic and in the securit& realms. 7RIC! coo"eration largel& builds on a common interest in gaining more inVuence in the global economic and "olitical order. then histor& #ill re"eat itself and e3er&bod& loses.)*0E.* &ears and it #ill be hard to 5ee" things from s"inning out of control.

htt"J--###. Bra6il is .sciences"o. it #as a dri3ing force in forming the Cancun front.fr-ceri-sites-sciences"o. Research Professor at the Centre d’Etudes Euro"<ennes de !ciences Po (%he 7RICs 2gainst the Dest6M CERI !%R2%EGG P2PER!. #ith #hich it enFo&s close relations W and 4atin 2merica.ey to B9IC Lai'i/ 11 W Professor at the Euro"ean Center of the 'ohns @o"5ins 7ologna. Dhen the great "o#ers are loc5ed into a militar& confrontation."df1--@24 7ra=ilJ the 7RIC! as an identit& su""ort %his brings us to 7ra=il. %he com"lementarit& of 7rasilia’s obFecti3es is e/"ressed in the fact that 4ula both centrall& integrated 7ra=il into the 7RIC! and cruciall& contributed to the creation of 9N2!9R. 7ra=il "la&ed a significant role in the emergence of the 7RIC!. . let alone enough trust. it #as central to a "olitical maneu3er to counter the 2mericans #ith regard to Iran b& attem"ting to negotiate a trilateral agreement #ith %eheran on nuclear #aste re"rocessing. to ma5e deals on those issues. #ith %ur5e&. 9nder the leadershi" of 4ula and his Minister of Foreign 2ffairs Celso 2morim.ceri-files-n00Q00)*00. #hich forms its natural economic and "olitical s"here of influence .fr. Nr 00 W @ors !<rie. 2s mentioned earlier. No3embre )*00.action of a sort that can onl& ha""en in a basicall& co-o"erati3e international s&stem. so the highest "riorit& at the moment is to 5ee" the multilateral a""roach ali3e and a3oid a drift bac5 into alliance s&stems and arms races. 2nd there is no "oint in dreaming that #e can lea" straight into some ne3er-land of uni3ersal brotherhoodN #e #ill ha3e to confront these challenges and sol3e the "roblem of #ar #ithin the conte/t of the e/isting state s&stem. More recentl&. 7ra=il sees the 7RIC! as an intermediar& "olitical circle in bet#een the Dest W and "articularl& the 9nited !tates. there is sim"l& not enough s"are attention. #hich is unBuestionabl& one of the central 7RIC! actors.

turning them into the dominant actors in the Teld of democrac& "romotion.II Get. %he im"ortance of democrac& .((I(X?1--@24 Destern democratic go3ernments and organisations s"end billions of dollars e3er& &ear on democrac&-related "roFects.ey to 'emocratic promotion. In 0??*. "articularl& during the 0??*s. Get a notable shift of "o#er is ta5ing "lace to#ards countries that are more hesitant #hen it comes to s&stematic democrac& "romotion.doi.Bra6il DA – Democracy Impact Bra6ils regional po#er is . LRising Po#ers and the Future of Cemocrac& PromotionJ the case of 7ra=il and India. "o"ulation. "rotocols and declarations of the subregional institutions of #hich it is a member.IE %he 7ra=ilian "resident again "la&ed an im"ortant mediating role during "olitical crises in Paragua& in 0??? and )***. In 0??. In )**E President 4ula ()**EW )*0*1 s#iftl& engaged to resol3e a constitutional crisis in 7oli3ia and. 7ra=il bloc5ed calls for a militar& inter3ention in !uriname after a militar& cou" there. )*0E. "articularl& in the regionHis one of the im"ortant dilemmas in 7ra=ilian foreign "olic& of the "ast t#o decades. #hich includes the norm of democratic solidarit&.*. .+0 >3er the "ast t#o decades 7ra=il has s&stematicall& built democratic references and clauses into the charters. President Cardoso sta&ed a#a& from President FuFimori’s inaugural ceremon&. 7ra=il has defended democrac& abroad in man& more instances. Dhen then Peru3ian President FuFimori falsiTed the election results in )***. under President Fernando Collor de Mello (0??*W?)1 and largel& because of economic interests. E. In 0??) it remained silent o3er a "olitical crisis in Ecuador. #hich authorised the use of force in @aiti #ith the goal of reinstating President 2ristide. rather than #hether to defend it. %hird Dorld guarterl&.I+ Follo#ing the cou" in :ene=uela 7ra=il has assumed a more asserti3e "rodemocrac& stance in the region.)*0E. In )**) it acti3el& engaged in :ene=uela #hen a grou" sought to illegall& oust @ugo Cha3e=. !antosi argues that 7ra=il has "la&ed an e/em"lar& and fundamental role in strengthening democratic norms and clauses across the region. 7ra=il inter3ened in neighbouring Paragua& in 0??+ to a3oid a militar& cou" thereH#or5ingthrough Mercosur and the >2! to obtain higher le3erage. In )**? the international debate about ho# to deal #ith the cou" in @onduras #as 3er& much a result of 7ra=il and the 9!2 clashing o3er the terms of ho# best to defend democrac&. 2 &ear later it o""osed militar& inter3ention to reinstall President 2ristide in @aiti.I.el/ 14 . including Tnancial su""ort for the electoral monitoring of a munici"al election there. he sent his foreign minister to guito to deal #ith a crisis in Ecuador. 7ra=il’s President Cardoso refused to criticise him and 7ra=il #as the maFor obstacle to 9! and Canadian efforts to condemn Peru at the >2! General 2ssembl&. 7ra=il abstained se3eral times from "romoting or defending democrac&. IX In his memoirs Cardoso reVected on the issue b& sa&ing that ^7ra=il al#a&s defends democratic order’.+ Get. +* %his tendenc& has been further strengthened in the )0st centur&. in )**I. in an im"ortant gesture. India and German& are in their res"ecti3e neighbourhoods. contrar& to #hat is often belie3ed. a Master in Public Polic& from @ar3ard8s Kenned& !chool of Go3ernment.E+I?(.H#hen a member of the 9N !ecurit& CouncilHit abstained from !ecurit& Council Resolution ?. and a PhC in "olitical science from the 9ni3ersit& of Cuisburg-Essen in German& . the Trst "resident after democratisation. and ultimatel& con3incing General 4ino >3iedo not to stage a cou" dm<tat against then President 'uan Carlos Dasmos&.0*X*-*0. No. @a3e 7ra=il and India "romoted democrac& in the "ast6 @o# do anal&sts and "olic& ma5ers in emerging democraciesHusing 7ra=il and India as an e/am"le in this anal&sisHthin5 about democrac& "romotion6 @o# can #e characterise their arguments in relation to the critiBues cited abo3e6 7ra=il and democrac& "romotion 7ra=il accounts for o3er half is relati3el& more "o#erful in its region than China. #hich suggests that it dominant "osition.I0 E3en under indirectl&elected President 'os< !arne& (0?XIW X?1. so an& attem"t to "romote or defend self-determination and human rights abroadHa commitment enshrined in 7ra=il’s 0?X? constitutionHstands in conVict #ith the "rinci"le of non-inter3ention. and o3er the "ast t#o decades its 3ie#s on inter3ention ha3e become decidedl& more Ve/ible.M htt"J--d/. territor& and militar& budget. "" EE?WEII. #here he coordinates the !po Paulo branch of the !chool of @istor& and !ocial !cience (CPC>C1 and the e/ecuti3e "rogram in international relations (>li3er. assistant "rofessor of international relations at the Gethlio :argas Foundation (FG:1 in !po Paulo.I) 9nder President Fernando @enriBue Cardoso (0??IW)**)1.. des"ite this of !outh 2merica’s #ealth. %he tension arising from these t#o o""osing 3isionsHres"ecting so3ereignt& and ado"ting a more asserti3e "ro-democrac& stance. it shied a#a& from inter3ening in its neighbours’ internal affairs before the 0??*s. 7ra=il su""orted the inclusion of a reference to democrac& in a ne# "reamble to the >rgani=ation of 2merican !tates (>2!1 Charter.org-0*.72 from the 9ni3ersidad de :alencia in !"ain. In the same &ear 7ra=il su""orted the >2! in assuming a mediating role during a "olitical crisis in Nicaragua.I* @o#e3er. ). :ol.X hours later. #ho #as reinstated .sol"es !etter t an t e *( (t&en. #ho had been remo3ed from "o#er in 0??0 through a cou". and a &ear later 7ra=il su""orted the Inter-2merican Cemocratic Charter. %he "reser3ation of national so3ereignt& and non-inter3ention ha3e al#a&s been and remain 5e& "illars of 7ra=il’s foreign "olic&.I( 4oo5ing bac5 o3er the "ast decade. #here he #as a McClo& !cholar. I? 7urges and Caudelin argue that ^one can sa& that 7ra=il has been Buite su""orti3e of efforts to "rotect democrac& in the 2mericas since 0??*’. In fact. largel& aimed at FuFimori.

it seems clear that the consolidation of democrac& in the region has turned into one of 7ra=il’s fundamental foreign "olic& goals.+I In the same #a& 7ra=il’s ongoing in3ol3ement in Guinea 7issau.M 'ul 00.(. as 7ra=il’s economic rise has caught the #orld’s attention. LCemocrac& and nuclear "eace. President Rousseff’s decision to #or5 through MercosurHrather than the >2!H is consistent #ith a gro#ing "reference to use local regional bodies. "rinci"all& its ri3al 2rgentina.in the constitution and acti3ities of the Rio Grou". 2t the beginning of Cardoso’s Trst term. electoral monitoring. su""orting inde"endent media and Fournalists. and #illing to inter3ene if "olitical crises threaten democrac& . #hen President Cilma RousseffHtogether #ith the leaders of 9rugua& and 2rgentinaHsus"ended Paragua& from Mercosur after the im"eachment of Paragua&’s President Fernando 4ugo.+) 2t the same time 7ra=il has sought to ensure that the "rotection of democratic rule be calibrated #ith inter3entionism. It is born from dialogue.. ca"acit& building for state institutions.+X In addition. des"ite this strateg&. For e/am"le. a trend that continued and strengthened throughout the 0??*s. #hich "ermits the grou" to inter3ene in nations to foster or strengthen democrac&. "ossibl& in an effort to strengthen "roFection as a regional leader . Rather. it rarel& engages in the liberal rhetoric so common in Euro"e and the 9!2. It ma& be "recisel& because of 7ra=il’s traditional mistrust of the 9!2’s attem"ts to "romote freedom that 7ra=ilian "olic& ma5ers refrain from using similar arguments. and #as intensiTed under Cardoso’s successor. 4ui= InAcio 4ula da !il3a. 1 W Resident !cholar at 2merican Enter"rise Institute 'oshua.org-s&llabi-mura3chi5. (* %he 7ra=ilian go3ernment thus set a clear "recedent that anti-democratic tendencies in the region #ould cause a ra"id and clear reaction from leaders in 7ras lia . #hich most go3ernments in the region regarded as the eBui3alent of a cou" d’<tat or a ^"arliamentar& cou"’.(( Get. It thus "ositions itself as an alternati3e and more moderate democrac& defender in the hemis"here than the 9!2. to )**I and it continued to su""ort efforts to stabilise the countr& b& o"erating through the 9N "eace5ee"ing mission there. in the lead-u" to the antici"ated elections in 2"ril )*0). des"ite this distinction. (0 and that decisi3e action to "reser3e democrac& has been ^te"id’.n"ec-#eb. 7ra=il is most li5el& to inter3ene during constitutional crises and "olitical ru"tures. htt"J--###. #hich has been the target of 9! 2merican democrac& "romotion for &ears. #hen e/"laining #h& 7ra=il o""osed a 9! "ro"osal to craft a mechanism #ithin the >2!’! Cemocratic Charter. a member of the Communit& of Portuguese 4anguage Countries (CP4P1 "ro3ed to be a &et another im"ortant moment for 7ra=il’s role as a "romoter of "eace and democrac&. #hen se3eral commentators criticised 7ra=il’s decision not to "ressure the :ene=uelan go3ernment to ensure fairelections. starting in )**. #hose acti3ities range from "olitical "art& de3elo"ment. In the 0?X*s 7ra=ilian foreign "olic& ma5ers "ercei3ed the need to engage #ith the countr&’s neighbours.++ 7ra=il had "ro3ided some electoral assistance to Guinea-7issau from )**. &et the mission’s larger goal did consist in bringing both economic and "olitical stabilit& to the Caribbean Island. Get. %his de3elo"ment must be seen in the conte/t of 7ra=il’s attem"t to consolidate its regional leadershi" . Minustah. >3er the "ast fe# &ears. adding that ^democrac& cannot be im"osed. 7ra=il can be said to be defending and "romoting "olitical stabilit& abo3e all else. the term ^democrac& "romotion’ is not used either b& 7ra=ilian "olic& ma5ers or b& academics #hen referring to 7ra=il’s Paragua& "olic&. Celso 2morim argued that ^there needs to be a dialogue rather than an inter3ention’. Mercosur and the more recent !outh 2merican Communit& of Nations (9nasul1 can to a large e/tent be traced bac5 to 7ra=il’s acti3ism . Get there are also critical 3oices. +E %his term’s "olic& rele3ance remains contested.(I %his trend has continued e3er since. and less so #hen "rocedural issues during elections ma& affect the outcomeHas #as the case during @ugo Cha3e=’ re-election in )*0). and training for Fudges. !ummarising 7ra=ilian foreign "olic& o3er the "ast t#o decades. the "resident began to articulate a 3ision that fundamentall& di3erged from 7ra=il’s traditional "ers"ecti3eHa 3ision that identiTed ^!outh 2merica’ as a to" "riorit&. Democracy is . the region has Trml& stood at the centre of 7ra=il’s foreign "olic& strateg&.htm . (E 7oth these e3aluations #ere made before 7ra=il’s asserti3e stance in Paragua& in )*0). 7ra=il’s decision to lead the 9N "eace5ee"ing mission. in @aiti. a 5e& ingredient of 7ra=il’s interest in e/"anding its economic inVuence on the continent.+? 7ra=il’s "ro-democrac& stance became most ob3ious in )*0). () %ed Piccone reasons that ^#hen it comes to #ieldingcinVuence in su""ort of democrac& in other countriesc7ra=il has been ambi3alent and often un"redictable’. In the same #a& 7ra=il does not "romote an& acti3ities com"arable to those of large 9! or Euro"ean nongo3ernmental organisations. combining the "rinci"le of non-inter3ention #ith that of ^non-indifference’. ci3ic grou" leaders and legislators. &et it s&mbolises ho# much 7ra=il’s thin5ing about so3ereignt& has e3ol3ed. #ith a focus on reducing a gro#ing fear in the region that 7ra=il could turn into a regional bull&N o3er the "ast fe# &ears anti-7ra=ilian sentiment has been on the rise in !outh 2merica. Ne3ertheless.(+ %his trend continues under 7ra=il’s current administration. %his brief anal&sis sho#s that 7ra=il is increasingl& asserti3e in its region. !ean 7urges argues that ^7ra=il has not beha3ed consistentl& in su""ort of democratic norm enforcement’. and one that continuousl& calibrates its interest in defending democrac& #ith its tradition of non-inter3ention. 7ra=il made further Tnancial contributions to the 9nited Nations Ce3elo"ment Programme (9NCP1 bas5et fund in su""ort of the National Electoral Commission for assistance in the e/ecution of the election.+( Curing a CP4P meeting in )*00 7ra=il signed a memorandum of understanding to im"lement a ProFect in !u""ort of the Electoral C&cles of the Portuguese-s"ea5ing 2frican Countries and %imor-4este.ey to sol"e for e@tinction %&ra"c i.’ +. #hile 7ra=il ma& de facto defend democrac& #ith freBuenc& in the region. cannot be categorised as democrac& "romotion "er se.

but after a time their 3ictims sei=ed the offensi3e. %he Cold Dar ended almost instantl&--as he no doubt 5ne# it #ould. !o in the Cold Dar. but their challenges ha3e onl& ser3ed as em"irical tests that ha3e confirmed its robustness.1 In fact. and subseBuent boo5. . . the !o3iet 9nion8s of @ungar& and 2fghanistan. such e/am"les abound. . #as also democratic #ithin the confines of its "eculiar confessional di3ision of "o#er. German& might ha3e beha3ed more cautiousl& in the summer of 0?0.is a much more contro3ersial "ro"osition than 8merel&8 that democracies are "eaceful in their dealings #ith each other. Indeed. Cemocracies ma& often go to #ar against dictatorshi"s because the dictators see them as "re& or underestimate their resol3e.$ (E1 !ome of those #ho find enthusiasm for democrac& off-"utting ha3e challenged this "ro"osition. and one for #hich there is little s&stematic e3idence.$ %he so-called re3isionist historians argued that 2merica bore an eBual or larger share of res"onsibilit& for the conflict. $De #ould ha3e been able to a3oid man& . @itler #as emboldened b& his notorious contem"t for the flabbiness of the democracies. North Korea8s of !outh Korea. North Korea almost surel& discounted the li5elihood of an 2merican militar& res"onse to its in3asion of the !outh after !ecretar& of !tate Cean 2cheson "ublicl& defined 2merica8s defense "erimeter to e/clude the Korean "eninsula (a declaration #hich merel& confirmed e/isting 9. Dithin the councils of the 2rab 4eague. it is easier to determine #hether a conflict has occurred bet#een t#o states than #hose fault it #as. "rimaril& its concern for the #ell-being of 2merican nationals and its desire to remo3e a chi". Russett sa&s that those #ho claim democracies are in general more "eaceful $#ould ha3e us belie3e that the 9nited !tates #as regularl& on the defensi3e. . (I1 Russett cites his o#n and other statistical e/"lorations #hich sho# that #hile democracies rarel& fight one another the& often fight against others. No doubt man& of the instances of democracies at #ar that enter into the statistical calculations of researchers li5e Russett stem from the colonial era. !urel& this is an e/ce"tion that "ro3es the rule. 4ebanon. ho#e3er. the academic Paul Gottfried and the columnist-turned-"olitician Patric5 '. in the case of 4ebanon against Israel. . 7ut Mi5hail Gorbache3 made nonsense of their theories #hen. %he "olitical scientist 7ruce Russett offers a different challenge to the notion that democracies are more "eaceful. . . In other cases. 7ut subseBuent e/"erience. In recent &ears a burgeoning literature has discussed the "eacefulness of democracies. Not#ithstanding the insistence on unconditional surrender. !addam @ussein8s decision to s#allo# Ku#ait #as "robabl& encouraged b& the inference he must ha3e ta5en from the statements and actions of 2merican officials that Dashington #ould offer no forceful resistance. %he Euro"ean "o#ers conBuered most of 2frica and 2sia. but he #as "ointing to t#o do#n-to-earth historical obser3ationsJ that democracies are more "eaceful than other 5inds of go3ernment and that the #orld is gro#ing more democratic. and the in3aders #ere greeted #ith Fo& b& the Grenadan citi=enr&.and "erforce of nuclear "eace -. . 7ut 2merica had no designs u"on Grenada. one of the 2rab belligerents. after much "rocrastination. Cemocracies. 2fter organi=ing an election. in the name of glasnost and "erestroi5a. Israel #as an embr&onic democrac& and 4ebanon. 7uchanan ha3e both instanced democratic England8s declaration of #ar against democratic Finland during Dorld Dar II. England did accede to the "ressure of its !o3iet all& to declare #ar against Finland #hich #as allied #ith German&. had it reali=ed that England #ould fight to 3indicate 7elgian neutralit& and to su""ort France. it o""osed the #ar but #ent along #ith its larger confreres #hen the& o"ted to attac5. 7ut the latter Buestion is all im"ortant. for e/am"le. (. %he trouble #ith such studies.X. from the !o3iet game board. Dashington #as im"elled b& selfinterest more than altruism. $%hat democracies are in general.is the s"read of democrac&.$ 7ut that is not Buite rightJ the #ord $regularl&$ distorts the issue.$ (01 Fu5u&ama8s "hrase #as intentionall& "ro3ocati3e. 2nd to forgi3e. 4ebanon did little fighting and soon sued for "eace. democracies ha3e turned to #ar in the face of "ro3ocation. For e/am"le. Neither "oint has gone unchallenged. but the struggle as a #hole #as dri3en one-sidedl&. %he strongest e/ce"tion I can thin5 of is the #ar bet#een the nascent state of Israel and the 2rabs in 0?.!. 2 3ictim can sometimes turn the tables on an aggressor. %o be sure. but he also meant the $diminution of the li5elihood of large-scale conflict bet#een states. . ho#e3er. #as a reluctant "art& to the fight. #e must as5 not onl& #ho started a #ar but #h&. such as IraB8s in3asion of Ku#ait. E3en so. there #ere often moti3es other than aggrandi=ement. Indeed the "ro"osition that democracies do not go to #ar #ith one another has been described b& one "olitical scientist as being $as close as an&thing #e ha3e to an em"irical la# in international relations. in dealing #ith all 5inds of states. is that the& rarel& e/amine the Buestion of #ho started or caused a #ar.$ he sa&s.$ #hich means roughl&J #hat did the& ho"e to get out of it6 In the fe# cases in recent times in #hich #ars #ere initiated b& democracies. democracies nominall& #ent to #ar against democracies #hen the& #ere dragged into conflicts b& authoritarian allies. fights in anger . . the 9nited !tates ma& ha3e initiated some s5irmishes (although in fact it rarel& did1. as in the case of England against Finland. such as Israel8s in3asion of 4ebanon in 0?X) to root out an enem& s#orn to its destruction or %ur5e&8s in3asion of C&"rus to rebuff a "o#er-grab b& Gree5 nationalists. e3en tongue-in-chee5.$ 7& this he meant the conclusion of man8s Buest for the right social order.$ ()1 Kennan8s 3ie# #as strongl& influenced b& the "olic& of $unconditional surrender$ "ursued in Dorld Dar II. as distinguished an obser3er of international relations as George Kennan made a claim Buite contrar& to the first of these assertions. #hen 2merica in3aded Grenada. In 0??*. None #ould dis"ute that Na"oleon #as res"onsible for the Na"oleonic #ars or @itler for Dorld Dar II in Euro"e. 2merica treated 'a"an and that "art of German& that it occu"ied #ith e/traordinar& generosit&. and continued to hold their "ri=es as Euro"e democrati=ed. but that does not ma5e the 3ictim eBuall& bellicose. In a famous article. ho#e3er tin&. >nl& a fe# decades ago. rarel& on the offensi3e. but once aroused $a democrac& .%he greatest im"etus for #orld "eace -. he said. 7ut colonialism #as a legac& of Euro"e8s "re- . . often ha3e aimed at conBuest or subFugation. %hus. "olic&1. Cemocracies are not onl& slo# to anger but also Buic5 to com"romise. difficulties if the democratic "rocess had de3elo"ed normall& in our countr&. 2merica "ulled out. #ere slo# to anger. 4ater. In contrast. during the Cold Dar. %he !o3iet "olic& #as $class #arfare$N the 2merican "olic& #as $containment.$ he #rote. %he big e/ce"tion to this rule is colonialism. such as the negotiated settlements 2merica sought in Korea and :ietnam "ro3ed him #rong. Francis Fu5u&ama argued that democrac&8s e/tension #as leading to $the end of histor&. 7ut the declaration #as "urel& formalJ no fighting ensued bet#een England and Finland. In "articular #e should consider #hat in Catholic 'ust Dar doctrine is called $right intention. to the bitter end. more "eaceful than are authoritarian or other nondemocraticall& constituted states . he turned the !o3iet 9nion a#a& from its historic course. %o reduce the data to a form that is Buantitati3el& measurable. ((1 %o render Fudgment about the relati3e "eacefulness of states or s&stems. the #ars launched b& dictators.

calling do#n on themsel3es all the miseries of #ar. the other that it la& in the democratic ethos (the $cultural-normati3e model$1. ma& not hold in the contem"orar& #orld. that #as also a significant gain. statesN in 0??* there #ere 0+I. >ne unsatisf&ing thing about @untington8s $#a3es$ is their une3enness. %o do this. #ould not that ethos also ma5e them more "eaceful in general6 Russett im"lies that the ans#er is no. democrac& is the #illingness to resol3e ci3il dis"utes #ithout recourse to 3iolence. %he "ro"ortion of states that #ere democratic in 0??* (. I 5no# of no case #here a democrac& has initiated #arfare #ithout significant "ro3ocation or for reasons of sheer aggrandi=ement. it #ill run until the around the &ear )0)I. Greece and !"ain is the third such e"isode. In other #ords. 7ut b& this same count. that the #orld is gro#ing more democratic. the& im"licitl& ac5no#ledge that the relationshi" of democrati=ation and "eacefulness ma& change o3er historical "eriods. 2 different 5ind of challenge to the thesis that democracies are more "eaceful has been "osed b& the "olitical scientists Ed#ard G. bringing the second #a3e to its end. #ith greatest momentum since 0?(. follo#ed Dorld Dar II #hen #holesale decoloni=ation ga3e rise to a raft of ne# democracies. %hat Freedom @ouse could count 0)* freel& elected go3ernments b& earl& )**0 (out of a total of 0?) inde"endent states1 bes"ea5s a 3ast transformation in human go3ernance #ithin the s"an of ))I &ears. but there are se3eral cases #here dictators ha3e done so.. but since 3irtuall& none of those #ere democratic in 0?)). and the& are dis"osed to tr& to accommodate those interests e/ce"t #hen the other "art&8s beha3ior seems threatening or outrageous. ho#e3er. mo3ed to another "lanet. Mansfield and 'ac5 !n&der. #as identical to the "ro"ortion in 0?)). In 0((+. 2t bottom. @untington sa&s that the democrati=ation trend that began in the mid-0?(*s in Portugal. %he attitude of li3e-and-let-li3e cannot be turned on and off li5e a s"igot. !o the choice $don8t go at all$ (001 is rarel& realistic in the contem"orar& #orld. albeit a substantial one. an& effect the& re"ort. or don8t go at all. some +). #hich #as a significant gain. the birth of the 9nited !tates of 2merica brought the total u" to one. . destined to be remembered as one of the most re3olutionar& &ears in all histor&.democratic times. he sa&s. %hese statistics also contain the ans#er to those #ho doubt the second "ro"osition behind Fu5u&ama8s forecast. colla"sed into dictatorshi" b& the 0?+*s. !ince their em"irical base reaches bac5 to 0X00. %he additional 0*0 states counted in 0??* #ere mostl& former colonies. @is statistical assessments led him to conclude thatJ $almost al#a&s the cultural-normati3e model sho#s a consistent effect on conflict occurrence and #ar. countries become more aggressi3e and #ar-"rone. !ince then. the second about )*. the number of democracies #as =ero. e3en if accuratel& inter"reted. . ha3e legitimate interests. in contrast to some of our historical results. coming to an end in the inter#ar &ears #hen much of Euro"e regressed bac5 to fascist or militar& dictatorshi". the rule seems to beJ go full& democratic. %he structural-institutional model sometimes "ro3ides a significant relationshi" but often does not. %he& note that $in ZsomeR recent cases. but an almost eBual increase for states gro#ing less democratic. 2in thZeR transitional "hase of democrati=ation. @e aimed to e/"lain #h& democracies are more "eaceful to#ard each other. democrac& has s"read at an accelerating "ace. he constructed t#o models. #as ine3itable. Freedom @ouse no# sa&s that the "ro"ortion of democracies has gro#n to +). and the& #ere not counted as states. 2nd b& then--#ho 5no#s6-"erha"s man5ind #ill ha3e incinerated itself. li5e others. Da3es rise and fall. but this #as obscured b& as5ing #hat "ercentage of states #ere democratic. .I "ercent. Finall&. @untington8s meta"hor im"lies a lac5 of o3erall "rogress or direction. notabl& in 2frica. %here is no reason to su""ose that an& such relationshi" is go3erned b& an immutable la#. >ne h&"othesi=ed that the cause la& in the mechanics of democratic decision-ma5ing (the $structural-institutional model$1. a large number are e/"eriencing some degree of democrati=ation or hea3& "ressure in that direction. %hose #ho follo# @untington8s argument ma& ta5e the failure of democrac& in se3eral of the former !o3iet re"ublics and some other instances of bac5sliding since 0?X? to signal the end of the third #a3e.I_1. it #ill ebb an& da& no#. >ne interesting "iece of Russett8s research should hel" to "oint him a#a& from his doubts that democracies are more "eaceful in general. (0E1 7ut there are t#o ans#ers to this.I "ercent.I "ercent of states #ere democratic in 0??* corres"onds #ith Freedom @ouse8s count of $democratic$ "olities (as o""osed to its smaller count of $free$ countries. .$ (X1 7ut this 3alid insight is incom"lete. the "acific inclination of democracies. Further. !5e"tics ha3e dra#n u"on !amuel @untington8s fine boo5. Most countries8 democratic e3olution has included some fits and starts rather than a smooth . there #as "rogress all around. #hile the criteria for Fudging a state democratic 3ar&. Cemocrac& is not Fust a mechanismN it entails a s"irit of com"romise and self-restraint. or e3en de3ised a better "olitical s&stem. Immanuel Kant #as the first to obser3e. %he first $#a3e$ of democrati=ation began #ith the 2merican re3olution and lasted through the aftermath of Dorld Dar I. @e reasoned that $citi=ens . and each ne# #a3e raised the number of democracies higher than before. >nl& a minorit&. .$ (0*1 @o#e3er. or rather to forecast. In 0((I. %he& claim statistical su""ort for the "ro"osition that #hile full& fledged democracies ma& be "acific. !uch an im"ression. %he first lasted about 0I* &ears. Most of these. %he citi=ens and officials of democracies recogni=e that other states. and it #as abandoned after Dorld Dar II. %hat this momentum has slac5ened some#hat since its "innacle in 0?X?. 7ut this is too "at. t#o thirds had become democratic b& 0??*.$ 7ut according to Freedom @ouse. and it includes man& #ea5l& democratic states. %his raises the "ossibilit& that the effects the& #ere obser3ing #ere caused sim"l& b& "olitical change "er se. 7ut each of the re3erses that follo#ed @untington8s t#o #a3es #as brief. >f those. %he %hird Da3eJ Cemocrati=ation in the 4ate %#entieth Centur&. "resent a statistic that seems to #eigh hea3il& against an& unidirectional inter"retation of democratic "rogress. 7ut the number of "eo"les had not gro#n a""reciabl&. @untington does.I "ercent of e/tant go3ernments #ere chosen in legitimate elections. Moreo3er. ho#e3er go3erned. Russett aimed to e/"lain #h& democracies are more "eaceful to#ard one another. %he difference #as that in 0?)) most "eo"les li3ed in colonies. because to his mind a critical element in the "eaceful beha3ior of democracies to#ard other democracies is their antici"ation of a conciliator& attitude b& their counter"art. #ould be misleading. (0)1 (%his is a much larger "ro"ortion than are adFudged b& Freedom @ouse to be $free states. a more demanding criterion1. Nations that embrace this ethos in the conduct of their domestic affairs are naturall& more "redis"osed to embrace it in their dealings #ith other nations. !o man& "eo"les #ere s#e"t u" in the democratic tide that there #as certain to be some bac5sliding. Moreo3er. @o# long should #e e/"ect the third to endure6 If it is li5e the second. $ (?1 If it is the ethos that ma5es democratic states more "eaceful to#ard each other. states of that time #ere mostl& the ad3anced countries.1 >f the remaining E(. but a "eo"le #ho #ere subFected to a foreign dictator did not count at all. In short. the& measure a state8s li5elihood of becoming in3ol3ed in a #ar but do not re"ort attem"ting to determine the cause or fault. In 0?)) there #ere onl& +. rather than b& democrati=ation. the statistic that . %here is a dee"er e/"lanation. !ince then. 2s5ing the Buestion this #a& means that a "eo"le #ho #ere subFected to a domestic dictator counted as a non-democrac&. not less. the $third #a3e$ has not abated. %he second #a3e. but if it is li5e the first. most of the gro#th ha3ing occurred #ithin the t#entieth centur&.$ a more demanding criterion. in this telling. namel&. #ere democratic in 0??*. the& ac5no#ledge that their research re3ealed not onl& an increased li5elihood for a state to become in3ol3ed in a #ar #hen it #as gro#ing more democratic. #ill ha3e a great hesitation in . ho#e3er. %he +.

. If this is so."rogression. For other ominous corners of the #orld. the number and "ro"ortion of democracies stands higher toda& than e3er before. Ces"ite the bac5sliding. !o it must be for the #orld as a #hole. %he danger of nuclear #ar #as radicall& reduced almost o3ernight #hen Russia abandoned Communism and turned to democrac&. Nonetheless. the o3erall trend remains "o#erful and clear. %his "rogress offers a source of ho"e for enduring nuclear "eace. #e ma& be in a 5ind of race bet#een the emergence or gro#th of nuclear arsenals and the ad3ent of democrati=ation. the greatest cause for #orr& ma& rest #ith the Moslem Middle East #here nuclear arsenals do not &et e/ist but #here the "ros"ects for democrac& ma& be still more remote.

Bra6il DA – Israeli Conflict Impact Bra6ilian po#er . #e are li5el& to see the "attern of 7ra=il’s engagement #ith Israel and the Palestinians remain one that meshes ambition. Rafael 2d3anced Cefense !&stems. %rade bet#een the t#o countries has continued to flourish and Israeli militar& and securit& com"anies ha3e dee"ened their "resence in the gro#ing 7ra=ilian homeland securit& and defense mar5ets. and its "otential as a mar5et for its militar& e/"orts.Dith su"er"o#er nuclear arsenals "lummeting to a third of 0?X*s le3els and slated to dro" b& another third. it Israel’s a""roach to 7ra=il. 2t home. fi3e Israeli ministers ha3e 3isited 7ra=il. In that res"ect. the nig tmaris "isions of n&clear #inter offered b& scientists during the Cold Dar ha3e receded. #hich has held "o#er since offers 7ra=il greater 3isibilit&. !hortl& before the No3ember )?. not against it. a gathering of "olitical acti3ists. !taff Driter. Inc.ey to sol"e t e Israel-)alestinian conflict Giselle Dat6 an' 'oel )eters/ 14 W Giselle Cat= is an 2ssistant Professor of Go3ernment and International 2ffairs at the !chool of Public and International 2ffairs. 7ut if #e are #itnessing the emergence of a L"ost-2mericanM global order. its high-tech sector. 'oel Peters is Professor of Go3ernment and International 2ffairs at the !chool of Public and International 2ffairs. 7ra=il’s "romotion of the Palestinian cause ser3es its interests at o3erseas. 7ra=il sees Israeli in3estment . #here he reaffirmed 7ra=il’s #illingness to hel" mediate a resolution to the conflict. in Cecember )*0). 7ra=ilian Foreign Minister 2ntonio Patriota 3isited Israel and the Palestinian territories. and transnational net#or5s organi=ed b& su""orters of the ruling Dor5ers’ Part&. %his sense of "ragmatism and real"oliti5 has also guided home and )**E. E"en #it o&t escalation/ %i''le East n&clear #ar g&arantees e@tinction Hoffman/ $ (Ian Hoffman. )*0) 3ote on Palestinian membershi" in the 9nited Nations. Researchers at the 2merican Geo"h&sical 9nion8s annual meeting #arned Monda& that e"en a small regional n&clear #ar co&l' !&rn eno&g cities to shroud the globe in !lac. Indeed. and the "rocurement of Israeli technolog& and ad3anced #ea"ons as critical in the continued moderni=ation of its econom& and the de3elo"ment of its militar& e/"orts.M Israel 'ournal of foreign 2ffairs :II J ) ()*0E1 htt"J--israelcfr. 7ra=il under Cilma Rousseff has continued to be a strong and 3ocal ad3ocate of Palestinian statehood. e/"erts sa&M. For all its su""ort of the Palestinian cause."df1--@24 7ra=il’s a""roach to the IsraeliWPalestinian conflict has remained true to the course set b& President 4ula. and a#are that it has little chance of affecting 7ra=il’s "osition. Comesticall&. idealism. it s"ea5s to the idealism and "rinci"les of the Dor5ers Part&. Idealism. 7& dro""ing imaginar& Hiros ima-si6e' !om!s into some of the #orld8s biggest cities. and Pragmatism. acBuired a . Cecember 0).com-documents-(-)-(-)-I-GiselleCat=-and-'oelPeters. thereb& increasing the rele3ance of ne# emergent "o#ers. Israel has chosen to o3erloo5 its rhetoric on the conflict and #or5 #ith 7ra=il . a"en7t gone a#ay. 2t least until the end of Rousseff’s term in office ()*0I1. 2broad. and 2NG Ne#s"a"ers1 7ut the& !2N FR2NCI!C> -. smo.??$. and that summer the commander of the 7ra=ilian air force "aid a 3isit to Israel to discuss areas of future coo"eration. no# s#elled to tens of millions in "o"ulation. 7ra=il has sought to strengthen its relations #ith Israel. ci3il societ& grou"s. one of Israel’s leading defense contractors. and "ragmatism in a more asserti3e foreign "olic& agenda that. Recogni=ing 7ra=il’s im"ortance as an economic actor and emerging global "o#er. LNuclear Dinter 4ooms.*-"ercent sta5e in the 7ra=ilian aeros"ace com"an& GE!PI 2eronautics. 7ra=il hosted the Forum !ocial Palestina 4i3re ZDorld !ocial Forum for a Free PalestineR. !ince Rousseff came to "o#er t#o &ears ago.$ said Rutgers 9ni3ersit& atmos"heric scientist 2lan Roboc5. then 7ra=il’s engagement #ith the IsraeliWPalestinian conflict also re3eals that "ragmatism and self-interest #ill feature "rominentl& in the a""roach of Lne#M "o#ers to the resolution of global conflicts. not onl& reflecting its ambitions of becoming a global "la&er. . .y s a'o# an' &s er in t e manmade eBui3alent of the 4ittle Ice Age. and in "romoting multilateralism to address and resol3e global issues. MediaNe#s Grou". is ultimatel& grounded in material self interest. $N&clear #eapons represent t e greatest single &man threat to the planet/ m&c more so t an glo!al #arming. but also forming a central element in 7ra=il’s efforts in challenging 2merican dominance. for all its normati3e fla3or. :irginia %ech (L7ra=il and the IsraeliWPalestinian Conflict in the Ne# Centur&J 7et#een 2mbition. 7ra=ilianWIsraeli relations ha3e ne3er been stronger. In 2"ril )*0). it is a "attern of foreign "olic& beha3ior that is not too dissimilar to that of other emerging "o#ers.

it #ould soar higher into the stratos"here and begin coo5ing off the "rotecti3e o=one la&er around the Earth. @uge losses of o=one #ould o"en the "lanet and its inhabitants to damaging radiation. It8s not e3en nuclear autumn.-!o3iet nuclear holocaust #ould #rea5 ha3oc on the "lanet8s climate.ing an' last fi"e times or longer than t e cooling effects of t e !iggest "olcanic er&ptions in recent histor&. in !outheast 2sia. !cientists on Monda& sa& n&clear #inter still is possi!le. 9nli5e in the Cold Dar. the idea of nuclear #inter ca"tured the "ublic imagination.$ %oon said. according to Rutgers8 Roboc5. in 0?. + researchers imagined a 9. %he& sho#ed the "roblem #as "otentiall& #orse than fearedJ Massi3e urban fires #ould flush hundreds of millions of tons of blac5 soot s5&#ard. + e effects are stri. b& detonating e3er& nation8s entire nuclear arsenals. as the 9nited !tates did e sprea' of n&clear #eapons #orld#ide com!ine' #it glo!al migration into 'ense megacities form #hat he called $"erha"s t e greatest 'anger to the stabilit& of societ& since t e 'a#n of &manity2H More than )* &ears ago. the North fe#er #ea"ons and mig Korean "eninsula or.!. 7rian %oon and colleagues found the& co&l' generate 100 times t e fatalities an' 0** times the climate-c illing smo. #hile the #arm soot #ould s"read a "all sufficient to "lunge the Earth into free=ing &ear-round.e o&t in a hot s"ot such as t e %i''le East. #here -heated b& sunlight -. Po"ulari=ed b& astronomer Carl !agan and Nobel "ri=e #inners. the most modeled case. though nuclear-#ea"ons scientists found nuclear #inter #as 3irtuall& im"ossible to achie3e in their o#n com"uter models #ithout dro""ing @-bombs on nearl& e3er& maFor cit&.e "er 5iloton of e/"losi3e "o#er as all-out n&clear #ar !et#een t e *nited (tates an' former (o"iet *nion. #hen the 9nited !tates and Russia mostl& targeted each other8s nuclear. !&t rat er an instant nuclear chill o"er most of t e planet/ accompanie' !y massi"e o6one loss an' #arming at t e poles2 + at7s # at scientists8 com"uter sim&lations s&ggest #o&l' appen if n&clear #ar !ro.9ni3ersit& of Colorado researcher >. militar& and strategic industrial sites. For most mo'ern n&clear-#ar scenarios/ t e glo!al impact isn7t n&clear #inter . . yo&ng n&clear-arme' nations ha3e t go for ma@im&m effect !y &sing t em on cities .I. the notion of smo5e from incinerated cities blotting out the sun for &ears and star3ing most of the Earth8s "eo"le. $De8re at a "erilous crossroads. %he hundreds of millions #ho #ould star3e e/ceeded those #ho #ould die in the initial blasts and radiation.

such as the 9nited !tates. In the summer . . 9ni3ersit& of Colorado.!.ey conflict 'iff&ser in t e region. 7ra=il is interested in ta5ing ste"s to#ard true securit& autonom& for the region. L!&stem !tructure and !tate !trateg&J 2dding @edging to the Menu. (E 2s 'ohn Chi"man and 'ames 4. and suggests that L9. %a&lor and Francis >nline1--@24 %hese ca"abilities ma& become increasingl& im"ortant if 9! na3al strength is increasingl& directed a#a& from the !outh 2tlantic and to#ard the Indian and PaciTc >ceans.(I Bra6il regional lea'ers ip is .Ph. #ealth& enough.C. 7ra=il is also ta5ing on greater res"onsibilit& for regional conVict mediation that used to be reser3ed for the 9nited !tates or the >2! . has enough sta5e in the "ublic good in Buestion to "a& its entire cost .M the 9nited !tates has also "ro3ided more identiTable "ublic goods li5e securit& from e/ternal threats.(* %here are signiTcant signs that this e3olution is generating conTdence throughout !outh 2merica . but #illing to stri5e strong bilateral relationshi"s #here these are sought. 7ra=il is also bolstering securit& ties 3ia the India-7ra=il-!outh 2frica triad (I7!21. in foreign terms. the ne# !outh 2merican Cefense Council is Linclined to be.. 7ra=ilH"rimaril& through the creation of 9N2!9R and the associated !outh 2merican Cefense CouncilHis dri3ing the de3elo"ment of regional institutions that are increasingl& successful at generating the "ublic goods that the 9nited !tates used to deli3er to the region . )*0). and greater monetar& stabilit& for se3eral !outh 2merican states that #ere e/"eriencing se3ere debt crises. 9ni3ersit& of Colorado. the best #a& to thin5 of the e3ol3ing relationshi" bet#een 7ra=il and the 9nited !tates is not in terms of a nascent securit& com"etition. Me&er e/"lains in his )*00 Congressional Research !er3ice Re"ort. )*0).'eli"ering p&!lic goo's !etter t an t e *( !oosting confi'ence +essman/ 1. no 9!-su""orted candidate had e3er lost a bid to be secretar&#ithin the 9N2!9R conte/t. a third-#a& actor in 4atin 2mericaJ res"ectful of desires for 4atin 2merican emanci"ation from a hea3il& burdened "ast #ith 2merica.M(0 2lthough there is no reason to doubt that the 9nited !tates is still committed to the defense of !outh 2merica (and the entire hemis"here1 from e/ternal threats.M(. treat its emergence as an o""ortunit& for the 9nited !tates. Political !cience. assistant "rofessor of International 2ffairs and associate director of the Center for the !tud& of Global Issues (Globis1 at the 9ni3ersit& of Georgia (7roc5 F. that 7ra=il’s a""roach to regional leadershi" is an e/am"le of %&"e 7 strategic hedging beha3ior6 If so.. general of the >2!. "romoting conTdence and securit& building measures and fostering defense industr& e/change. 7ra=il is increasingl& demonstrating a "reference for building regional forums that do not include the 9nited !tates.C. and successful. intra-regional conVict mediation.M+? In addition to the less tangible (and more debatable1 "ublic good of Lregional stabilit&.M Ma& ))nd. >"erating the CC! aims for a defense "olic& that succeeds in Lenhancing multilateral militar& coo"eration. !mith note. the 9nited !tates "ro3ided "ublic goods in the region because it is Llarge enough.+X 2s the regional hegemon in 4atin and !outh 2merica for o3er a centur&. #hichinclude biannual na3al e/ercises that facilitate coordination bet#een the countries in terms of search and rescue o"erations as #ell as shi""ing securit&. In man& #a&s.M Ma& ))nd. "olic&ma5ers recogni=e 7ra=il’s standing as a global actor. . and most im"ortantl&. L!&stem !tructure and !tate !trateg&J 2dding @edging to the Menu. but as a Foint ac5no#ledgement that 7ra=il is emerging as a clear regional leader. then. instances of 7ra=ilian conVict mediation through 9N2!9R. 2s Peter '. one #ould e/"ect 7ra=ilian foreign "olic& in !outh 2merica to address concerns about the "otential loss of "ublic goods or subsidies that the 9nited !tates has historicall& "ro3ided. in "ushing to establish the !outh 2merican Cefense Council (CC!1.empirics +essman/ 1. this tendenc& can be seen as an attem"t to esca"e the shado# of 9! inVuenceJ until )**I. it is im"ortant to note that. and that both states share a desire for 7ra=il to ta5e on some of the same res"onsibilities and "ursue some of the same basic interests that the 9nited !tates has in the "ast.Ph. %hrough 9N2!9R. It is relati3el& eas& to identif& recent. %a&lor and Francis >nline1--@24 2 Council on Foreign Relations %as5 Force Re"ort recommended that s"eciTc 7ra=il des5s be created #ithin the !tate Ce"artment and National !ecurit& Council.M++ %hus. %his is needed in light of the massi3e losses in di"lomatic ca"ital that Dashington e/"erienced in the aftermath of the )**E IraB in3asion and the election of se3eral left-leaning go3ernments in 5e& !outh 2merican states. Lthe successes of 9N2!9R ha3e instilled a conTdence in !outh 2merican nations that the region can resol3e internal "roblems #ithout ha3ing to turn to e/tra-regional "o#ers.+( Is it "ossible. Political !cience. assistant "rofessor of International 2ffairs and associate director of the Center for the !tud& of Global Issues (Globis1 at the 9ni3ersit& of Georgia (7roc5 F.Bra6il DA – LA Insta!ility Impact Bra6il is maintaining Latin American sta!ility no#.M() 2lthough man& of the obFecti3es identiTed b& the CC! are similar to those sought b& the >rgani=ation of 2merican !tates (>2!1. and #or5 #ith 7ra=il to de3elo" com"lementar& "olicies.

Cha3e= res"onded to the allegations b& cutting off di"lomatic relations #ith Colombia. 2s McCall 7reuer e/"lains. due to the #ildl& ineBuitable di3isions of #ealth in some 9. b& acting through 9N2!9R. 0E*-0E0. militar&. hegemon& in the 2mericas.of )*0*. and economic machiner&. College. instabilit& created b& a regional #ar .!. Gi3en its contro3ersial lin5ages #ith the Colombian go3ernment. 7ra=il is able to mediate in an efTcient manner. beginning in Central 2merica and s"reading else#here in 4atin 2merica. Canada "ossessed an interest in "romoting stabilit& in the face of a "otential decline of 9. Lsu"ranational infrastructure "ro3ides a structure through #hich 7ra=il can "roFect its leadershi" #ithout ha3ing to di3ert more resources than necessar& from the e3er&da& functioning of its o#n go3ernment. it #ould ha3e been nearl& im"ossible for the 9nited !tates to accom"lish #hat 7ra=il did.M(+ Dith 7ra=il "la&ing an inVuential role. strategic and economic interests. . Professor of Political !cience at >5anagan 9. anti-2merican sentiment "roduced b& decades of subFugation to 9. mounting e/ternal debt. It #as feared that s&c a pre'icament co&l' generate increase' global instability an' "erha"s e3en a hegemonic war. in addition to "olitical re"ression. and its strong anti-:ene=uelan stance. client states in 4atin 2merica. influence in the region W #hich had some credibilit& in 0?(?-0?X. Colombian "resident 2l3aro 9ribe accused the Cha3e= go3ernment in :ene=uela of harboring Colombian rebel grou"s li5e Re3olutionar& 2rmed Forces of Colombia (F2RC1. %his is one of the moti3ations #hich led Canada to become in3ol3ed in efforts at regional conflict resolution. 7ra=il immediatel& offered to mediate the conVict #ithin the conte/t of 9N2!9R. Perce"tions of declining 9. Discovering the Americas: The Evolution of Canadian Foreign Policy Towards Latin America . might "reoccu"& Dashington to the e/tent that the 9nited !tates #ould be unable to "erform adeBuatel& its im"ortant hegemonic role in the international arena W a concern e/"ressed b& the director of research for Canada’s !tanding Committee Re"ort on Central 2merica. and di"lomatic relations #ere restored after 4ula managed to get Cha3e= and the ne#l& elected Colombian "resident 'uan Manuel !antos to sit do#n and clear the air. Moreo3er.!. 2nal&sts at the time #orried that in a #orstcase scenario. Da5e Earl& 7ird FileR Dhile there #ere economic moti3ations for Canadian "olic& in Central 2merica. @ence. securit& considerations #ere "erha"s more im"ortant. such as Contadora.!. as #ill be discussed in the ne/t cha"ter.(( + at sol"es glo!al #arfare 9oc lin/ 0E Z'ames Francis.!. underde3elo"ment. the Central 2merican imbroglio #as 3ie#ed as a fuse #hich could ignite a catacl&smic "rocess throughout the region. and so on W #ere lin5ed to the "ros"ect of e/"losi3e e3ents occurring in the hemis"here. 9N2!9R also contributed to the resolution of conVicts in 7oli3ia in )**X and Ecuador in !e"tember )*0*.

the first to create a bod& to regulate tobacco contents and emissions. %rade and Ce3elo"ment.W0IR. ensured that tobacco control #as embodied in consistent "olicies throughout go3ernment and not onl& as a health ministr& issue. (%ranslated from Portuguese1 Coalition Ci"lomac&J 7ringing %ogether Public @ealth and Foreign Polic& 7ra=il’s abilit& to gra""le #ith the di3ersit& of interests at the national le3el. 4ondon. Follo#ing the establishment of a model national tobacco control "rogram. that the Go3ernment #as cohesi3e in its "osition against smo5ing. including Inland Re3enue. (E1 Graduate !chool of Public @ealth.E of the FC%C on the "rotection of "ublic health "olicies #ith res"ect to tobacco control from commercial and other 3ested interests. "ut it. the Commission #as a consultati3e bod& to determine the official go3ernment "osition on the FC%C negotiations. des"ite the #eight of other factors. 7ra=il’s National %obacco Control Programme im"lemented man& inno3ationsJ 7ra=il #as the second countr& (after Canada1 to ado"t gra"hic #arnings on cigarette "ac5ages. further em"hasi=ed this com"le/ negotiating "ositionJ %o be a big "roducer. #as recruited to lead D@>’s %obacco Free Initiati3e (%FI1. >thers. No"otny/ 1? W (01 Centre on Global Change and @ealth. !an Ciego !tate 9ni3ersit&.#e re"resented both conflicting interests. (%ranslated from Portuguese1 ZInter3ie# #ith 2mbassador !antiago 2lca=ar. in "articular.0E(0_)FFournal. former Manager of !ocial Issues 9nit. 7ac5ed b& the highest le3els of go3ernment. 9nited Kingdom."losmedicine. a go3ernment committed to this "riorit&. and encouraged other countries to su""ort them as treat& elements. began #ith the establishment of the Inter-Ministerial National Commission on the Control of %obacco 9se in 0???. htt"J--###. ()1 Inde"endent Researcher W Public @ealth and %rade Policies. and 7ra=ilian di"lomats #ere a""ointed to chair the Intergo3ernmental Negotiating 7od& (IN71 for the FC%C. a big e/"orter #ith a strong and influential industr&. the . ensured a clear and unified endorsement of health goals #ithin 7ra=ilian foreign "olic&J %he "artici"ation of the Ministr& of Foreign 2ffairs in Gene3a clearl& signaled. including all "ertinent sta5eholders.ing Impact Bra6il regional lea'ers ip is . 2ccording to an inter3ie# #ith %ania Ca3alcante. 9nited !tates of 2merica (7ra=il and the Frame#or5 Con3ention on %obacco ControlJ Global @ealth Ci"lomac& as !oft Po#er. 7ra=il’s status as one of the biggest "roducers and e/"orters of tobacco. bac5ed b& the highest le3els of go3ernment. E/ecuti3e !ecretar& of the National Inter-ministerial Commission to Im"lement the FC%C."med. >nce negotiations commenced. Im"ortantl&.#e #ere leading on both sidesc. #e #ere tal5ing at that time of being a model for other countries.0***)E)Pre"resentationOPCF1--@24 7ra=ilian %obacco Control Polic& as an E/em"lar 7ra=ilian leadershi" #as critical to the successful conclusion of the FC%C negotiations in )**E. but are not "roducers. 2s di"lomat Frederico CuBue Estrada Me&er.ing Kelle& Lee. largel& to tobacco industr& re"resentati3es. Im"ortantl&. "ro3ided additional credibilit& for its leadershi" role in the FC%C negotiations Z0ER. %he close in3ol3ement of the Ministr& of Foreign 2ffairs. California. #ith "ressures in the domestic mar5et generated b& allies of a "o#erful industr&. 4ui= Carlos C agas/ an' %homas E. !an Ciego.’’ In our inter3ie#s. former assistant to 2mbassadors Celso Nunes 2morim and 4ui= Feli"e de !ei/as Correa . under an& circumstances.action6uriOinfo_E2doi _)F0*. 4ondon. 4ondon !chool of @&giene P %ro"ical Medicine. 7ra=il "romoted these ad3ances in man& IN7 negotiation sessions. 9nited Kingdom. 7ra=ilian medical doctor and former coordinator of the National %obacco Control Programme. mainl& for de3elo"ing countries. #hile at the same time achie3ing high 3isibilit& in tobacco control. %o be a countr& subFect to all these factors and also able to im"lement tobacco control. could still ha3e one of the best tobacco control "rograms in the #orld and su""ort and ado"t a treat& on tobacco control .Bra6il DA – (mo. the 7ra=ilian former Cirector of the %FI. including a "o#erful tobacco industr&. ^^!ome countries ha3e restricti3e anti-smo5ing "olicies li5e 7ra=il. %he Go3ernment’s stance dis"elled an& doubt that the negotiations could onl& be about health interests. :era 4ui=a da Costa e !il3a. nine ministries #ere re"resented on the Commission. and it can be considered one strateg& for the im"lementation of 2rticle I. :era 4ui=a da Costa e !il3a.M 2"ril )*. and a big consumer mar5et for tobacco "roducts. %his commission.org-article-fetch>bFect. Ministr& of Foreign 2ffairsR %his #as an a""roach that "rotected go3ernmental negotiation "ositions from the 3ested interests of the tobacco industr&. 7ra=il acti3el& su""orted all the D@> resolutions that led to the creation of the Intergo3ernmental Negotiating 7od&.ey to sol"e smo. 2 fuller understanding of 7ra=il’s contribution to the FC%C "rocess ma& "ro3ide lessons about the conduct of global health di"lomac& in other conte/ts. and the first to ban the use of ^^light’’ and ^^mild’’ terms in describing tobacco "roducts. De #ere sending a message that. )*0*. and 2griculture Z0. are big "roducers but #ith a 3er& liberal tobacco "olic&c.

2s the #orld’s tenth largest econom&. Its understanding of soft "o#er. 7ra=il then e/tended its coalition building to the regional and global le3els . "la&ed a similar role. maintain our abilit& to trade freel& and to raise a#areness of the FC%C’s im"lications among finance. and munici"al le3els. 2morim #as recognised as a s5illed and e/"erienced di"lomat. Most third #orld countries ha3e other "riorities but are not able to resist the "ace. In 4atin 2merica. 2ustralia. De ha3e had some success in some countries but it is b& no means com"lete. #ho recogni=ed that the international negotiating "rocess had direct effects on 7ra=ilian national tobacco control efforts and "ublic health. Z))R Conclusions 7ra=il’s leadershi" in global health di"lomac& must be understood as "art of the countr&’s "olitical and economic ascendance in international relations. ratification. are fuelling the debate and in man& cases dri3ing the "olitical agenda #ithin the D@>. es"eciall& about the necessit& of countries to gi3e "riorit& to this "ublic health subFect in "arallel #ith the ^^great star’’ in the cit& #hich #as the Dorld %rade >rgani=ation. It is as if ci3il societ&. (%ranslated from Portuguese1 ZInter3ie# #ith :era 4ui=a da Costa e !il3aR 7ra=il then used its di"lomatic channels to build lin5ages across regions J %he& not onl& "erformed their role during the meetings. through "artici"ation in health councils at the federal. %he need to build a broad domestic coalition on tobacco control across go3ernment. ^^ZdRifferent grou"s in ci3il societ& come together as an interested "art& in the "rocess of im"lementing an international treat&. and securit&. according to :era 4ui=a da Costa e !il3a. it had a "ri3ileged forum to am"lif& the rele3ance and im"ortance of #hat the D@> #as "ro"osing. and the "ublic health communit& #as heightened b& the industr&’s o#n strategic lobb&ing of related economic interests to hel" it o""ose stronger binding obligations of the FC%C. the %FI sought to build su""ort #ithin the de3elo"ing #orld. 2long #ith s5ilful di"lomats. Faced #ith this industr& threat. trade. trade. 7ra=il #as enabled b& the strong su""ort of the Minister of @ealth. 7ra=il has recognised that traditional "ractices of hard "o#er can be ina""ro"riate in a globali=ed #orld. India. she saidJ ^^%he obFecti3e #as to start so#ing regional consensus before the IN7 negotiations to s"eed u" the "rocess. (%ranslated from Portuguese1 ZInter3ie# #ith :era 4ui=a da Costa e !il3aR %he result of this effort #as effecti3e e/"anded "artici"ation b& de3elo"ing countries in the negotiations J %hose de3elo"ing countries. regional meetings #ere held to build consensus #ithin such grou"s as the Grou" of 4atin 2merica and Caribbean Countries (GR942C1 and Mercosur (Mercado Comumn del !ur1J Grou" meetings of this nature ha""en regularl& in Gene3a and are o""ortunities to discuss a di3ersit& of themes. dri3e and "olitical d&namics #hich are mo3ing the FC%C for#ard. as an interested "art&Hand certainl& an unstructured oneHbecomes a "la&er on the international stage’’ Z0ER.go3ernment e/tended coalition building to ci3il societ& organi=ations (C!>s1. then 7ra=il’s Permanent Re"resentati3e to the 9nited Nations and other international organi=ations in Gene3a. 7ra=ilian 4eadershi" in Global Negotiations 2 strategicall& im"ortant decision b& the D@> %FI #as the a""ointment of Celso Nunes 2morim. %he si/ de"ut& chairs of the IN7 to lead s"ecific #or5ing grou"sHthe 9!.. Dhen 2morim became 2mbassador to the 9nited Kingdom in )**). 2ll end mar5ets ha3e been alerted and 5e& "olitical and legal arguments ha3e been distributedc. ci3il societ&. #hich. 7ra=ilian su""ort for the FC%C #as im"ortant for countering industr&-led arguments that tobacco control #as a ^^first #orld issue. es"eciall& at the regional le3el. C!> acti3it& #as organised through the Frame#or5 Con3ention 2lliance (FC21. ha3e fought bac5 in Gene3a. Z0(R 7ra=il is cited b& the industr& as among the 5e& countries #here such a strategic a""roach #as needed . De organised the first meeting for the 2mericas region. but also too5 ad3antage of meetings #ith re"resentati3es of other countries and regions at their res"ecti3e "ermanent missions in Gene3a to disseminate information about the contents and sco"e of the treat&. mobilised to im"lement tobacco control inter3entions Z0ER. formed in )**0. #hich "la&ed an im"ortant contributor& role in FC%C negotiations. Ce3elo"ing countries formed a strong alliance #ith NG>s and cham"ioned our "ositions during the negotiations. informal meetings #ere held. a #orld#ide coalition of nongo3ernmental organi=ations and interested "arties. 2nglo-!a/on and English s"ea5ing "olitical economies. !outh 2frica. %he 9! delegation described him as ^^a stead& hand and Z"ro3idingR good leadershi"’’ Z0?R. . and %ur5e&H#ere carefull& selected to ensure both de3elo"ed and de3elo"ing countr& re"resentation and to encourage regional acti3ism.7ritish 2merican %obacco’s res"onse to date has consisted of attem"ting to engage in dialogue #ith the D@> . German& and 'a"an to #ea5en the treat& and #ater do#n crucial clauses. the countr&’s influence o3er a #ide range of global health issues is li5el& to gro# in coming decades. as IN7 Chair. Iran. 4ui= Feli"e de !ei/as Correa.’’ Ces"ite e"idemiological e3idence to the contrar& Z)*R. 'osem !erra. Z)0R %o counter such claims. and an integrated member of the #orld trading s&stem. suggests that a ne# 5ind of di"lomac& is emerging to achie3e collecti3e action on shared challenges . In addition to formal FC%C negotiations. according to Cal3acante. in the form of normati3e leadershi" and the use of ^^o"inion-sha"ing instruments’’ Z)ER. 2t the same time. "articularl& during his tenure as negotiator in 9N tal5s on disarmament. running a lobb&ing cam"aign based on legal and "olitical arguments designed to "reser3e adults freedom to smo5e. he #as succeeded as IN7 Chair b& another e/"erienced di"lomat.. state. the industr& claimed that the first #orld. agriculture and em"lo&ment ministers around the #orld. and the strengthening of the treat& during this last round of negotiations is a tribute to their courage and "ersistence in resisting the efforts b& the 9nited !tates. 2s 2lca=ar #rites. 2s an emerging econom&.’’. #hich are discussed in a di"lomatic conte/t. #hich #ere under assault b& massi3e tobacco industr& mar5eting and "olitical "ressure cam"aigns. %he !outheast 2sia %obacco Control 2lliance (!E2%C21. 2s described in an internal document of 7ritish 2merican %obacco (72%1. released to the "ublic in the 0??*s as a result of 9! litigation Z0+RJ ZDRe 5no# ho# the FC%C #ill be negotiated and #e 5no# #hat countries #ill be in3ol3ed. 2s 7ra=il #as chairing the treat& negotiations. and im"lementation Z0XR. %heir role "ro3ed "articularl& critical in su""orting its subseBuent ratification b& the 7ra=ilian !enate after the signing of the FC%C b& the Chief E/ecuti3e.’’ 7ra=il "la&ed an acti3e "art in man& of these meetings. as ^^a strateg& ado"ted b& chairs of different #or5ing subgrou"s #hen there #as an im"asse and consensus could not be reached.

and its domestic commitment to strong and effecti3e tobacco control. Inhaling secondhand smo5e increases the ris5 for lung cancer in nonsmo5ers b& E*_ ZIR.ing #ill . 2nd there is no sign that tobacco consum"tion is declining in the under-resourced #orldN this &ear. (L!mo5ing and EthicsJ Dhat 2re the Cuties of >ncologists6M 2ugust ). allo# smo5ing in the #or5"lace Z. and malaria together. tobacco 5illed one hundred million "eo"le. adolescents #ho gro# u" in smo5ing homes are more li5el& to smo5e themsel3es Z+. (mo. Nearl& half the #orld’s childrenH(** millionH breathe tobacco smo5e . %his.. %hrough its "rinci"led stance on 2R:s. Furthermore. tuberculosis.Ph. In short. 7ra=il’s remar5able e/am"le also suggests that engagement in health di"lomac& is increasingl& seen as a core com"onent of #hat it means to be a global citi=en Z). %he >ncologist !e"tember )*0* 3ol. accounting for E(_ of demand Z0R.R. the under-resourced #orld #ill consume (0_ of all tobacco "roducts Z. and !outh and Central 2merica are "redicted to ha3e a (I_W0**_ increase in cancer deaths from )*** to )*)* if the #ides"read use of tobacco continues at the current rate and if infections li5e the human "a"illoma3irus and he"atitis 7 and C are not contained ZER. %obacco-related deaths 5ill more "eo"le than 2IC!. Northern 2frica. 2NC. L%obacco use is the most "re3entable cause of death . 0I no.R. %obacco is not Fust 5illing smo5ers.ill a !illion people Rebecca C. and this "ercentage #ill rise to X*_ b& )*E* Z)R. )ent6 an' Carla '.R. in turn. China alone has E)* million smo5ers and is the maFor cigarette consumer in the #orld. @al3ing tobacco consum"tion no# #ould "re3ent )* WE* million "eo"le from d&ing before )*)I and 0(* W0X* million "eo"le from d&ing before )*I* from all tobaccorelated diseases including cancerM ZER . Berg/ 1? . (R.*** #or5ers die each &ear because of smo5e-filled #or5"laces. Emor& 9ni3ersit& !chool of Medicine. 2bout )**. has hel"ed to reinforce domestic "olic& on tobacco control. no# much too familiar. !outheast 2sia. it #ill 5ill one billion in this centur&. In the last centur&.th. Google !cholar1--@24 %@E %>72CC> EPICEMIC %he Dorld @ealth >rgani=ation (D@>1’s )**? re"ort on the #orld’s tobacco e"idemic continues the alarming stor&.such as global health. )*0*. often in their o#n homes. @alf of the countries in the #orld.C. ? ?X(-??E. 7ra=il has earned #ides"read credibilit& as a di"lomatic leader . Destern 2sia. (*_ of tobacco-related deaths occur in under-resourced countries. re"resenting t#o thirds of the #orld’s "o"ulation. %oda&. and #ithout inter3ention.

7ra=il is scheduled also to host the #orld’s t#o largest s"orting e3ents. %oda& 7ra=il is no longer sim"l& e/"orting commodities.tandfonline. %hese "olicies . 7ut it is more the choice of "olicies and the seBuencing of long term structural reforms (#hich ha3e finall& settled after a long "eriod of adFustment1 that ha3e enabled 7ra=il to ca"italise on the commodit& boom.E. #ith e/"orts e/ceeding [(** billion. it seems.I billion in )**X and a fa3ourable trade balance.M !outh 2frican 'ournal of International 2ffairs. %his figure constituted one of the #orld’s highest gro#th rates of that time. #hich #as entrenched in the mid-0??*s b& former "resident Fernando @erniBue Cardoso.)*0*. #hich is e/ce"tionall& high considering 7ra=ilian in3estors are still relati3el& ne# "la&ers in foreign mar5ets.)E Dhile a large bod& of literature). before 7ra=il’s "ri3atisation dri3e. "roFecting the 7ra=ilian 3oice be&ond 4atin 2merica and the traditional de3elo"ing !outh into a ne# league of leading global "o#ers alongside China. based on the countr&’s 3ast territor&.X billion. 7ra=il finall& seems to be embracing its role as a global "la&er that e/tends #ell be&ond 4atin 2merica and con3entional multilateral actions. %he 7roo5ings Institute. !outh 2frica (4&al. #hich has instilled a ne# sense of confidence and global leadershi" in the countr&. but also an increase in out#ard in3estment ("redominantl& in the de3elo"ing #orld1 and #ith that a "ro3ider of de3elo"ment assistance. Foreign in3estment reached record le3els of [. once e/"loited. 7ra=il’s commodit& mi/ H from so& beans. in a recent "ublication. In the late 0?+*s and earl& 0?(*s. as booming mar5ets from the 9nited !tates to China demand food and ra# materials.0( In recent &ears the stor& of 7ra=il has changed.com. #hile other countries H li5e !outh 2frica H ha3e not.)0 %his is #hat distinguishes 7ra=il from other commodit& e/"orters. the foundation for 7ra=il’s out#ard-loo5ing business and "olitical leaders . Economic stagnation in the 0?X*s H 5no#n as the ^lost decade’ H and lac5-lustre "erformance in the 0??*s further dee"ened ineBualit& and "o3ert& le3els.ey to glo!al cooperation/ energy an' agric&lt&re W ite/ 1? W PhC in Political !tudies from the 9ni3ersit& of Ca"e %o#n. >n to" of this. In the 0??*s. !ince )*** sustained economic gro#th and falling social ineBualit& has H for the first time in decades H follo#ed 7ra=ilian "olitical stabilit& .+0. inde"endent researcher and consultant s"ecialising in "olitical econom& issues in 2frica. and 7ra=il soon fell 3ictim to economic crises in the earl& 0?X*s. India and the 9nited !tates. Go3ernment-controlled Petrobras is still #idel& regarded as the largest com"an& headBuartered in the southern hemis"here.0X 2ll this has translated into greater global influence.lib. as #ell as the e/citement around its economic "otential. In that &ear inbound FCI stoc5 reached in e/cess of [E)X.* &ear "eriod #here inflation out"aced annual gross domestic "roduct (GCP1 gro#th. #hich mar5ed the "ea5 of a .Ik. 7ra=il. and the !ummer >l&m"ics in Rio de 'aneiro in )*0+. but a lac5 of "roduct and mar5et di3ersit& made it e/tremel& 3ulnerable to both internal and e/ternal shoc5s.I=sB]s51--@24 %he rise of 7ra=il as an emerging "o#er 4ong described as ^the countr& of the future H and al#a&s #ill be’ . the International Football Federation (Fifa1 Dorld Cu" football finals in )*0. commercial and de3elo"mental le3el in regions across the globe. #ith economic gro#th a3eraging I_ "er annum. In the earl& 0??*s inflation stood at a""ro/imatel& (*_ "er month. In )**+ out#ard bound foreign direct in3estment (FCI1 flo#s for the first time matched inbound FCI. 0?(*s and 0?X*s that #ere designed to ma5e 7ra=il self-sufficient and to em"o#er the state through a large and controlling "ublic sector that ha3e created internationall& com"etiti3e and technologicall& su"erior 7ra=ilian multinational cor"orations (MNCs1 and de3elo"ment agencies toda&. htt"J--###. is dri3ing 7ra=il’s e/"ort-led gro#th. 0+ 7ra=il’s astonishing ascent in the last decade has silenced its critics #ho doubted it #ould e3er realise its true "otential. has eluded 7ra=il since the countr& #as first 3aunted as an emerging "o#er in the 0?I*s. beef and orange Fuice to iron ore H has been a fundamental contributor to its recent #ealth accumulation.Bra6il DA – (oft )o#er Impact Brailian egemony . %rue. it seems.e="0. 2fter &ears of under"erformance and dashed e/"ectations.umn. from "ast ^miracle "eriods’. "o"ulation and economic si=e and dominance in !outh 2merica and its arra& of natural resources. 7ra=il enFo&ed a 0*_ annual economic gro#th for se3en consecuti3e &ears.)* It is this ne# found out#ard orientation of the 7ra=ilian econom& that distinguishes 7ra=il’s rise.0? 7ra=il’s global emergence has been characterised b& not onl& a rise in in#ard in3estment flo#s. It is also indicati3e of 7ra=il’s coming of age. Instead.I billion. 9ni3ersit& of Pretoria. it has been those 3er& same "rotectionist "olicies from the 0?+*s.. )) Ironicall&.edu-doi-abs-0*. EX of 7ra=ils 0** largest firms #ere still go3ernment o#ned. describes the state-led de3elo"ment "olicies ado"ted b& 7ra=il decades ago as ^costl& and counter"roducti3e’. for instance. %hese include "olitical leadershi" and a""ro"riate successionN the seBuencing of tough reforms dating bac5 to the earl& 0??*sN #ell formulated and e/ecuted social "oliciesN the commodit& boomN and a fa3ourable international en3ironment.0*X*-0*))*.9cE . the "romise of a "ros"erous future #as re"laced b& "olitical instabilit& and successi3e economic failures that culminated in a m&riad of social "roblems that made 7ra=il one of the most 3iolent and uneBual countries in the #orld throughout the 0?X*s and 0??*s. #hile outbound FCI stoc5 totalled [0)?. #ill con3ert 7ra=il from a net im"orter to a net e/"orter of oil. It is true that agricultural e/"orts boomed during this "eriod. 7ra=il’s emergence and recent economic success can be attributed to a fortuitous combination of factors and e3ents. 2ll this has inFected a #a3e of o"timism and enthusiasm in 7ra=il. !uch "otential. Gordon Institute of 7usiness !cience.?. ne# oil de"osits #ere disco3ered off the coast of Rio de 'aneiro #hich. engaging directl& on a "olitical. L9nderstanding 7ra=il’s ne# dri3e for 2frica. describes 7ra=il as ^rea"ing the benefits of its legac& of "olicies’. has finall& arri3ed. 2sia and 4atin 2merica. 7et#een )**E and )**X 7ra=il enFo&ed its best economic "erformance in more than )I &ears.. the legac& of these "olicies is "arado/icall&.

!uch "rolonged autonom& from international mar5ets in 7ra=il also hel"ed de3elo" s5illed technocrats.!. incenti3ebased education. 9ltimatel&. L%he Future of Nuclear Dea"ons in an Interde"endent Dorld. b& an& of the #orld8s traditional maFor "o#ers.nor.M Foreign Polic&. common interests.$ notes Patriota.M !"ring *X. 7ra=il under 4ula and 2morim and under Rousseff and Patriota has been gaining strength b& translating stead& gro#th at home and acti3e di"lomac& abroad into effecti3e international net#or5s.$ %his is a status enFo&ed b& none of the other 7RICs -. 3isiting scholar at the Carnegie Endo#ment for International Peace. biofuels (bioethanol in "articular1 and resource e/traction. the underl&ing ser3ices and e/"ertise for de3elo"ment of #hich are no# being e/"orted around the #orld. $De ha3e a great ad3antage. %his unusual "osition is strengthened further b& the fact that 7ra=il is not in3esting as hea3il& as other rising "o#ers in militar& ca"abilities. in areas from climate change to trade. ambassador to Bra6il. and it moti3ated non"roliferation "olic& in the first "lace. no great historical or contem"orar& ri3als among the ran5s of the other im"ortant "o#ers c and long-standing ties #ith man& of the #orld8s emerging and de3elo"ed nations. %his dimension recei3es further attention belo#. 'ra#ing t em into smaller regional conflicts/ partic&larly if tensions are ig 2 %his #as al#a&s a fear during the Cold Dar.di"lomac&. Indeed.com-articles-)*0)-*)-)X-bra=ilQsQne#Qs#agger1 Nonetheless. technolog& transfer.foreign"olic&. as %om !hannon. from nonproliferation to de3elo"ment. Moreo3er. +EW(IR A #orl' pop&late' !y many n&clear-#eapon states poses gra"e 'angers2 9egional conflicts co&l' escalate to t e n&clear le"el2 + e optimistic e@pectation of a &ni"ersal la# accor'ing to # ic n&clear 'eterrence pre"ents all #ars 0I rests on scant historical e3idence and is dangerousl& nai3e2 N&clear &ses in one part of t e #orl' co&l' trigger Lcatal&tic #arM bet#een greater "o#ers. des"ite facing great domestic and international challenges. !&il'ing on 2morim8s groundbrea5ing #or5 to establish Bra6il the #orld8s ma=or as a lea'er among po#ers. and #hich has become an im"ortant com"onent of 7ra=ilian foreign "olic& in both 4atin 2merica and 2frica. re3ealing ne# dri3ers of 7ra=ilian foreign "olic& in the form of in3estment. bureaucrats and s&stems geared to#ard inno3ati3e social "rogrammes and broad-based de3elo"ment. %his has not onl& hel"ed "osition it more steadfastl& as an emerging "o#er. t e more states t at possess n&clear #eapons an' relate' facilities/ t e more points of access are a"aila!le to terrorists2 . )roliferation ca&ses glo!al n&clear #ar %&ller/ 8 – director of the Peace Research Institute Fran5furt in German& and a "rofessor of international relations at Fran5furt 9ni3ersit& Z@arald. President and CE> of Garten Roth5o"f. has noted.ey 9ot . htt"J--###. + at sol"es ine"ita!le n&clear proliferation– Bra6ilian infl&ence is &ni1&ely .e its f&t&re on the #ise a""lication of soft po#er -. 4essons in social de3elo"ment (es"eciall& in areas such as @I:-2IC! a#areness1 ha3e long been instructi3e for 2frican countries. 7ra=il’s "rotectionist "olicies from the 0?+*s to 0?X*s ha3e unintentionall& gi3en it a com"etiti3e ad3antage in a range of commercial and social sectors "articularl& rele3ant in the de3elo"ing #orld. Editor-at-4arge of Foreign Polic&. no battles on our borders.hel"ed de3elo" a com"etiti3e ad3antage in sectors li5e agribusiness. for that matter. energ& and agriculture H all of #hich are interconnected and rele3ant to 2frica. Rousseff has alread& earned a higher "o"ularit& rating than did 4ula at a similar "oint in his tenure. India. de3elo"ment coo"eration. in the e&es of close obser3ers. chair of the Carnegie Economic !trateg& Roundtable. and Russia -. 7ut certain "rogrammes around conditional cash transfers. L7ra=il8s Ne# !#agger. the 9. $De ha3e no real enemies. )-)X-0). commercial farming and rene#able energ& (to name a fe#1 are no# acti3el& being e/"orted to 2frican countries in #hat 7ra=ilians call a transfer of ^social technolog&’.China. )I %his is a dimension of 7ra=ilian internationalisation that transcends 3arious sectors rele3ant to both social and commercial de3elo"ment. 2nd )atriota is Buietl& and. the countr& is one of the fe# to effecti"ely sta. %he Dashington guarterl& s E0J) "". It8s surel& no coincidence that.opf/ 1. (Ca3id. but has "ro3ided tangible areas of foreign engagement be&ond traditional trade and "olitical relations. economic le3erage. #ith great deftness. after o3er a &ear in office.

9nilateral action to address climate change is thus irrational. "". "". a claim su""orted b& the 9! e/"erience (!unstein )**(. these choices reBuire e/"lanation as the& do not follo# a commons logic.*0+.th. )0.Bra6il DA – Warming Impact *( *nilateralism pre"ents Bra6ilian lea'ers ip t at sol"es glo!al #arming Hoc stetler an' <iola/ 1.)*0). ". including ^an incenti3e to reduce emissions e3en in the absence of an international agreement’ (Engel and !ales5a )**I. For these emerging "o#ers domestic "olitical debates are es"eciall& im"ortant for determining #hen the& decide to ta5e on commitments to action. %hus domestic costWbeneTt calculations determine the beha3iour of large emitters. 9ni3ersit& of 7rasilia (Kathr&n and Eduardo. some#here outside the NorthW !outh framing that has traditionall& di3ided climate "olitics (Roberts and Par5 )**(1. 4arge emitters ha3e often done less to reduce their climate im"act than this incenti3e for unilateralism #ould suggest. com"laining that e/isting te/ts did not bind free-riding large emerging countries to reduce their emissions (Engel and !ales5a )**I.E1 that emerged in the late )***s. In broad terms. "ro3iding focal "oints. Instead. For a decade. #hich no indi3idual actor can sol3e. 2 state that #ants to address climate change should see5 formal international coo"eration . )*0). but the four ha3e coo"erated in resisting doing so in #a&s that bind them internationall&. "". 0?)W0?E. Dhile large emitters ma& ha3e "articular domestic beneTts to gain from unilateral action. and assisting in sanctioning de3iant beha3ior’ (Keohane and :ictor )*00. No# 7ra=il and !outh 2frica ha3e "ledged to reduce their emissions #hile China and India #ill lo#er their emissions intensit&. #e are not de3elo"ing a general e/"lanation of #h& countries Foin international accords. Keohane and :ictor )*00. doing nothing #hile others address the "roblem (Est& 0???. and e3en "ublic o"inion and elections. Gi3en the costliness of emissions reductions. monitoring com"liance. enhancing information and therefore credibilit&. PhC in Political !cience from the 9ni3ersit& of !ao Paulo. Tnding that 7ra=il’s negotiating "ositions res"onded to ne# national conTgurations of actors and "references. L7ra=il and the "olitics of climate changeJ be&ond the global commons. ". the largest emitter. Engel and !ales5a use game theoretic anal&sis to demonstrate that the classic commons model of climate change assumes a situation #here "artici"ants are a""ro/imatel& eBual. doing so unilaterall& #ould mean acce"ting a com"arati3el& disad3antaged "osition #ith minimal beneTt for the en3ironment . 2s should be clear. X1.E)1. interest grou"s (both economic and noneconomic1.1--@24 2s normall& understood. Full Professor at the Institute of International Relations. 0E1. ". as it should #ant to see other states bound b& institutions that ^hel" states achie3e their obFecti3es through reducing contracting costs. %he 72!IC countries stress their affinit& #ith the G(( of de3elo"ing countries. debate o3er such action ine3itabl& o"ens the door to Buestions about "articular domestic costs. but the& occu"& an increasingl& distinct "osition. Roberts and Par5s )**(1. ". not sim"l& e/ecuti3e officials and institutional arrangements’ (Putnam 0?XX. htt"J--d/. . De therefore begin b& e/amining the debate around climate action in 7ra=il. %his gi3es them different interests. In the second em"irical section of our article. %he argument #e de3elo" here is that the choices of the emerging "o#ers offer additional su""ort for this ^uncommon’ 3ie# of climate "olitics . #e contend. and an actor’s best o"tion is to shir5. In such cases the& a""ear to be res"onding to "ressures from disad3antaged domestic interest grou"s (Engel and !ales5a )**I. the 9nited !tates. "". !ince )**? it has done so in coordination #ith other emerging "o#ers in the 72!IC coalition .org-0*. #hile some emitters are actuall& large enough that the& can a ffect outcomes on their o#n or in small grou"ings.1.doi. social classes. >nce 7ra=il had decided to ta5e action on climate change. ". !unstein )**(. . ho#e3er. I1. #e discuss this uneas& alliance.0*X*-*?+. De trace its ne# #illingness to ma5e 3oluntar& commitments abroad "rimaril& to changes at the nation-state le3el and belo#. – CIGI Chair of Go3ernance in the 2mericas in the 7alsillie !chool of International 2ffairs and Professor of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Daterloo.+?XXX. >ur anal&sis is guided b& the #or5 of a fe# authors #ho ha3e suggested that the commons analog& does not hold for some "articularl& large countries. 2NC. economic "roTle. . )*?. )WE. climate change is a classic ^commons’ "roblem. the ne# "olicies res"ond to a domestic coalition of ^7a"tists and bootleggers’ (Ce!ombre )***.M 'ul& ). #e are ma5ing a s"eciTc argument about #h& a small set of countries W unusual in their si=e. !ince reducing emissions is costl&. debates about costs and beneTts at the domestic le3el are "articularl& im"ortant for determining the timing and e/tent of commitments to reduce greenhouse gas (G@G1 emissions. #hen "rinci"led actors found common ground #ith self-interested ones to "romote "olic& change. legislators. )*I1. a stance #hich ma5es it "oliticall& difficult for them to demand that from others (Cimitro3 )*0*1.. #hose members’ domesticall& grounded "ositions on international action ha3e brought "oints of both coordination and conVict.*W. framed its un#illingness to sign onto a global climate "rotocol in these terms . Mancur >lson’s classic #or5 on ^oligo"olies’ in "ublic goods "ro3ision concurs (>lson 0?+I1. "olitical #eight. and contribution to both a global "roblem and its "otential solution W ha3e ta5en "articular stances in negotiations o3er international res"onses to climate change. In large emitters. %his means loo5ing at an arra& of actorsJ ^"arties. it still needed to decide ho# to engage in the international negotiations.

Economicall&. the emerging "o#ers ha3e occu"ied an a#5#ard "osition in this di3ide. including all the maFor emitters. at le3els that follo#ed "olitical rather than en3ironmental logics. 2ll #ere undergoing "olitical u"hea3al. #e mo3e to the case stud& of 7ra=il. %he 9nited Nations Frame#or5 Con3ention on Climate Change (9NFCCC1 of 0??) has Fust one "rotocol. Finall&. es"eciall& those that see a multi"licit& of actorsand interests in com"etition #ith each other to sha"e national foreign "olicies (e. ho#e3er. X?I1. In the climate regime._ reduction. and since #ithdre# from it. Putnam 0?XX.1. Ces"ite their emissions le3els._ (? tons "er ca"ita1. methane. their #eight in global emissions #as clearl& o ffset b& their continuing status as "oor economies. %he )*00 Curban agreement reiterated this "lan. but has not been #illing or able to com"el them to Foin. the a""ro/imate shares of global climate emissions (carbon dio/ide. but did not ratif&. Corres"ondingl&. %he 72!IC countries’ decreasing abilit& to Tnd common #in-sets e3en among the four after )**? also endorses focusing on domestic constraints. and the norm of ta5ing on climate action obligations arguabl& has not. ma5ing that a condition of its o#n "artici"ation as earl& as 0??(. Cimitro3 )*0*.?_ belo# #hat the& #ould other#ise ha3e been . actors. 7ra=il "romised a set of actions to reduce )*)* emissions b& E+.g. chosen its o#n timeframe. side-"a&ments. o3ersight. and India "romising a dro" of )*W)I_ in the same time frame. #hich called for a second set of K&oto-based obligations and some form of action b& countries not bound b& the K&oto Protocol (Friberg )**?. setting off a ^norm cascade’ (Finnemore and !i55in5 0??X. 9nli5e its fello# 72!IC countries. It has tried to insist on legal obligations for the emerging "o#ers. Keohane 0?X. the 0??( K&oto Protocol. en3ironmental acti3ists W sa# them as actuall& abrogating the most im"ortant elements of a global climate agreement.*W. Emerging "o#ers in the historical global climate regime com"le/ %he e/isting climate regime is fragmented. carbon emissions from the modern sector of the econom& . 7ra=il . Nonetheless. and then onl& general commitments to the 7ali roadma". 2lternati3e e/"lanations >ur argument Tts #ith "ast #or5s that stress the im"ortance of domestic sources of international action. and !outh 2frica 0. #hile !outh 2frica "romised a similar E. and leadershi". and formall& "resented commitments to the 9nited Nations at the beginning of )*0* in res"onse to the (unado"ted1 Co"enhagen 2ccord. and #ill underta5e its o#n "referred means for achie3ing the target. >ne maFor set of e/"lanations of international coo"eration focuses on the role of hegemonic "o#ers (e. #ith India at (_ () tons "er ca"ita1.I_ (0) tons "er ca"ita1 (:iola )*0*1.I_ belo# )**I le3els b& )*)*. no one #ould ha3e identiTed the 72!IC countries as ^emerging "o#ers’ in 0??*. 7a"tists and bootleggersJ the domestic "olitics of climate "olic& in 7ra=il 7ra=il occu"ies a uniBue "osition in the global carbon c&cle.0WEX. De sho# for the 7ra=ilian case that the changes enlarging that #in-set #ere "rimaril& domestic (albeit sometimes in res"onse to international de3elo"ments outside the formal negotiations1 and brieV& sur3e& su""orting e3idence for the other countries. the& agreed to the "ossibilit& of monitoring.0 %hus in the initial decade of climate negotiations. %he& insisted on Northern countries’ historic res"onsibilit& for G@G emissions and the North’s much greater abilit& to address the "roblem (Roberts and Par5 )**(1. the follo#ing section on the 72!IC coalition sho#s ho# coordination #ith each other hel"ed to establish Fust ho# those commitments #ould be made internationall&. but the& all s"eciTed "ublic 3oluntar& commitments to do so at the end of )**?. and nitrous o/ide1 had risen to a ).g. Mora3csi5 0??(1. #hile the 72!IC countries began to ta5e on 3oluntar& climate action obligations after )**?. China and India ha3e committed to reduce their emission intensit&. %heir a3erage GCP-ca"ita is still Fust (E_ of the global mean. 7& )*0*. It sets emissions reduction targets for the industrialised and "ost-!o3iet (^2nne/ 0’1 countries. In Cancumn. Keohane and :ictor )*001. although the details still ha3e to be negotiated. In fact. it is "ossible to inter"ret the outcomes of interest here as a t#o-le3el game. commitments to legall& binding and 3eriTable action (Cimitro3 )*0*1. these became o fficiall& recognised as ^nationall& a""ro"riate mitigation actions’. Most of the gains came in the )***s. #e trace the changes that "ushed 7ra=il to ma5e its un"recedented commitment to climate action. China and India of the 72!IC countries alread& made signiTcant aggregate contributions to global G@G emissions. Not all norms "ass through such a ti""ing "oint. ". %he emerging "o#ers continued to negotiate alongside smaller and "oorer countries in the G((-China bloc through most of the )***s e3en as the& began to gro# ra"idl& and garner attention. #here leaders ma5e choices facing both domestic and international arenas (Putnam 0?XX1. !ome X* de3elo"ed and de3elo"ing countries made similar commitments. the& #ere un#illing to ma5e an& commitments internationall& to reduce their emissions. and negotiations o3er "ost-K&oto arrangements ha3e struggled o3er their role. It is still the case that no "art of the e/isting global climate regime com"le/ reBuires the 72!IC countries to limit their emissions of G@G. 2nother set of internationall& grounded e/"lanations of coo"eration "ro"oses that international coo"eration ma& come as norms "ass through a ti""ing "oint #hen ^a critical mass of rele3ant state actors ado"t the norm’. and institutions (Engel and !ales5a )**I. their combined gross domestic "roduct (GCP1 (PPP1 #as Fust 00_ of the global total in 0??). Ce"ledge )**+. %hese large and "o#erful countries are seen to com"el international agreements through some combination of coercion. 9ntil )**(. #ith China aiming to lo#er its carbon dio/ide emissions "er unit of GCP b& . has &et to ma5e its o#n treat& commitment to climate action J it signed. #ith #ea5 interstate negotiations at the core of a di3erse set of acti3ities. the ob3ious candidate for hegemon&. although it doubled to ))_ in )**?.2fter a brief sur3e& of global climate negotiations. the e3entual emerging "o#ers #ere unconVicted about their "osition in the 0??*s agreementsJ the& #ere "art of the de3elo"ing #orld. and 3eriTcation as #ell as international consultation and anal&sis. E??1. In the ne/t section. De do not address other "otential e/"lanations in detail.) In Cancumn in )*0*. #e retain our domestic focus since the domestic #in-sets that #ould allo# climate action for these countries ha3e been Buite small and restricti3e. Dith all the 72!IC countries reaching the "oint of considering some "ossibilit& of global action after )**(. and sho# ho# e3ol3ing domestic "ositions led its "oliticians in )**? to 3irtuall& simultaneousl& "ass domestic climate legislation and acce"t greater "artici"ation in global climate action. %here is a unilateral Bualit& to these commitments in that each countr& has sim"l& announced its o#n 3oluntar& targets._ share for China (+ tons of C>) eBui3alent "er ca"ita1. man& of the most committed norms holders W Euro"eans. the K&oto Protocol. 2t the start of international climate negotiations. but se3eral "rominent alternati3es are difficult to reconcile #ith basic elements of the global climate negotiations. the 9nited !tates. %he K&oto Protocol follo#s the 9NFCCC’s "rinci"le of ^common but differentiated res"onsibilities’. ". !ince K&oto. s"litting the #orld into de3elo"ed and de3elo"ing "arts.

. and trans"ortation W are alread& Buite lo# in 7ra=il. %he "olitical debate focused on economic gro#th at home and reassertion of 7ra=il’s claims to so3ereignt& and global leadershi" abroad. 2fter the "ush to a""ro3e the K&oto "rotocol. es"eciall& after the 9nited !tates #ithdre# from the Protocol in )**0. in e ffect trading clearer o#nershi" of land and forests for greater "ublic o3ersight of the use made of them. reVecting carbon dio/ide’s "ersistence in the atmos"here (Roberts and Par5 )**(. Further Forest Code re3isions de3elo"ing in )*0) #ould #ea5en sustainable forest management. but other anal&sts argue that the ne# la# could create "ri3ate "ro"ert& obligations as #ell as rights for a 3ast coalition of legal lando#ners. 7ra=il also argued strongl& in the K&oto negotiations that national shares of carbon emissions should be calculated on the basis of their historical accumulation since the mid-nineteenth centur&. #e sur3e& 7ra=il’s initial climate "ositions. began the "rocess of slo#l& dra#ing 2ma=onian state authorities into coo"eration #ith the federal go3ernment. 'ust a fe# &ears later. es"eciall& in the !outh (7urges )**?1. 2n energ& sector strongl& grounded in rene#able energies li5e h&dro"o#er and biofuels accounts for this outcome. !il3a. 7ra=il in the K&oto negotiations W the starting "osition In the initial &ears of climate negotiations..+1. 2mendments to the National Forest Code in )**+ also allo#ed forests in federal "ublic lands to be transferred to "ri3ate agents for sustainable management and commercial useN the amendments established a Forest !er3ice. to (*** 5m) in )**?. 7ra=il has long had trouble im"lementing conser3ation in its "rotected areas (@ochstetler and Kec5 )**(. #ith ne# "resident 4ula da !il3a’s administration after )**E sho#ing the familiar di3isions and s"oradic attention to climate change of his "redecessor. Dhat is unusual about the recent dro" in deforestation is that it coincided #ith a sustained "eriod of strong economic gro#th that included a commodit& e/"ort boom. land use and land use change.g. 7ra=ilians #ere not climate ^deniers’. In 0??(.1. 2 legal modiTcation in 0??+ began the "rocess b& reforming the Forest Code to raise the reBuired set-aside forest areas from I* to X*_ of indi3idual 2ma=onian "lots. and "ublic su""ort for climate action that e3en s"illed into the )*0* "residential election. Go3ernmental e fforts . and the second in )**I. the ne# "rominence of actors #ho su""orted climate action for instrumental reasons (^bootleggers’1. the& #ere guided b& a deTnition of 7ra=il’s national interest that trac5ed closel& #ith its broader foreign "olic& (7urges )**?1. In the K&oto negotiation "rocess (0??+W)**01. ". )*0). 7et#een 7ra=il’s Trst G@G in3entor& in 0??. 2 Federal E/ecuti3e >rder in )**? (.IX-)**?1 issued land titles in the 2ma=on. %he G(( su""orted this "osition (Dilliams )**I1. Dhile 2nne/ 0 countries reFected rationales of historic res"onsibilit&. ". from X** million tons of C>) to 0. Macedo et al. 'a"an. De then trace the multi"le domestic changes after the mid-)***s that e3entuall& culminated in ne# international negotiating "ositions at the end of that decade. #ho gre# u" as a rubber ta""er in the 2ma=on region. accounted for +0_ of 7ra=il’s G@G emissions in the !econd National Emissions In3entor& Communication of )**I. %hese changes #ere de3elo"ed during Marina !il3a’s tenure as Minister of En3ironment ()**EW)**X1 and dee"ened under her successors.*** 5m) in )***W)**.)I billion (7ra=il )**. ^7a"tists’ argued for "rinci"led reasons that 7ra=il should ado"t a stronger and more acti3e "osition in fa3our of national climate action. but are unli5el& to re3erse the gains in controlling large scale deforestation. energ&. En3ironmentalists had man& allies in the Ministr& of En3ironment (@ochstetler and Kec5 )**(1. )*0)1. !he reBuired states to de3elo" "lans to reduce deforestation and the federal go3ernment did real-time monitoring of the results.W industr&. the& failed to inVuence national re"resentati3es #ho "referred to stress the historical res"onsibilit& of de3elo"ed countries to act Trst. )**. signiTcant areas #ere transferred to "rotected status. climate "olitics again too5 a bac5 seat in 7ra=il. #hile agriculture contributed another 0?_ (7ra=il )*0*a1. 7ra=il #or5ed closel& #ith the 9nited !tates to de3elo" #hat became the Clean Ce3elo"ment Mechanism (CCM1 in the K&oto Protocol (Friberg )**?. ". )**?. 0IIW0I(1. and asserted a leadershi" role for 7ra=il commensurate #ith the gro#th in its international stature during the Cardoso administrations (0??IW)**)1. 9nli5e its stance in the 0?() !toc5holm Conference. annual emissions from deforestation gre# II_. ". In Cardoso’s second administration. Ceforestation is still high. 7ra=il hel"ed "ull together the alliance bet#een the Euro"ean 9nion. 0. En3ironmental non-go3ernmental organisations (NG>s1 often agreed that de3elo"ed countries had a s"ecial historical res"onsibilit& for climate change.1. legalising to di fferent degrees "ast land a""ro"riations and deforestation. %he domestic "olitics of im"ro3ing deforestation control 7et#een )**I and )*00. )*0*a1. %he large and "o#erful agricultural coalition in Congress "assed the bill o3er President Cilma Rousse ff’s obFections in an 2"ril 3ote. Instead. . 7ra=il also affirmed a 3ision of de3elo"ment #ith en3ironmental sustainabilit&. #ith some rough correlation #ith national economic gro#th (see Figure 01. In this section. 2s these "ositions suggest. )**?. but the Tgures suggest that 7ra=il might be gaining le3erage on one of its most "ersistent en3ironmental "roblems (Ne"stad et al. and emerging countries that made the Tnal agreements "ossible. %his affirmed the right to de3elo"ment as a fundamental com"onent of #orld order. but it did not "la& a maFor role in international negotiations at this time. the domestic de3elo"ments that broadened the coalition in fa3our of climate action began to unfold. e. "". but belie3ed that de3elo"ed countries bore the res"onsibilit& for binding international obligations to address climate change (4ahsen )**. es"eciall& deforestation. b& allo#ing deforestation along ri3ers. ho#e3er. )1. the Foreign Ministr& and the Ministr& of !cience and %echnolog& led 7ra=ilian delegations to climate meetings. 7ra=il bro5e #ith its historic trends b& dramaticall& lo#ering 2ma=onian deforestation from an annual a3erage of almost )0. %hese included sur"rising ne# success at controlling deforestation. 7ra=il has al#a&s had some actors #ith strong "rinci"led commitments to national climate action W those Ce!ombre ()***1 #ould call ^7a"tists’. %he en3ironmental mo3ement hea3il& resisted the decree. but the& still thought their national re"resentati3es dre# too much on ^mindsets characteri=ed b& =ero-sum thin5ing and national economic interests’ (4ahsen )**. 2lread& in the 0??*s. 0EI*1. 2 number of gradual changes ha3e enhanced the legal architecture in the 2ma=on (still far from com"lete1. ". 7et#een )*** and )**+. 2nnual deforestation rates ha3e al#a&s 3aried in 7ra=il. totalling I0_ of remaining 2ma=on forest area (Ne"stad et al. Raids resulted in Fail terms for some federal and state agenc& em"lo&ees (Macedo et al. but as5ed that de3elo"ed countries "ro3ide funding for climate mitigation in de3elo"ing countries (:iola )**). 7ra=il su""orted the Tnal stages of negotiation of the K&oto Protocol #ith its di3ision bet#een the res"onsibilities of de3elo"ed and de3elo"ing states. E?X1. %hrough most of 7ra=il’s "artici"ation in global climate negotiations. but stronger institutional ca"acit& and more e ffecti3e la# enforcement since )**E ha3e im"ro3ed outcomes. %hese features form a bac5dro" for 7ra=il’s e3ol3ing climate stances.1. %his reduced its total G@G emissions b& about E*_ (7ra=il )*0*b1. 7ra=il suggested a Tnancial mechanism that #ould "ro3ide com"ensation for de3elo"ing countries that 3oluntaril& undertoo5 G@G mitigation .

%his #as the least reform-oriented coalition because it is e/tremel& heterogeneous. 7ra=ilian negotiators retained their traditional obFection to carbon mar5ets for forests until )**?. . Follo#ing these de3elo"ments. Interest calculations subseBuentl& brought the Trst ^bootlegger’ into the climate action coalition. Dhen the K&oto Protocol #as acti3ated in Februar& )**I.M E3idence from a 3ast international scientific monitoring effort accumulates almost #ee5l&. %his outcome #as es"eciall& galling to go3ernors and ma&ors in the 2ma=onian states. Climate action as good business 2nother ^bootlegger’ all& emerged follo#ing 7arac5 >bama’s election in the 9nited !tates in )**X. it allied #ith the Euro"ean 9nion against other forest countries.E %heir concern accelerated across the decade. 7ra=il should ado"t a ne# res"onsible climate "olic&. !ince it has around X*_ of the non-cable audience and an e3en larger share in cable tele3ision. >ther com"onents of recent forest "olic& aim to "ro3ide "ositi3e incenti3es for conser3ation. bloc5ing an im"ortant "otential line of de3elo"ment of the international agreements. !cientists #orld#ide ha3e been obser3ing the gathering of this threat for three decades no#. In )**X. 7ra=ilian negotiators #orried that ma5ing them "art of global agreements #ould e3entuall& o"en 7ra=il to international liabilit& for the high rates of deforestation in the 2ma=on that the 7ra=ilian go3ernment e3identl& could not control. Professor of IR ` National Dar College (%err& 4. In )**?. %he& ho"ed the countr& #ould thus a3oid the border ta/ adFustments and e3en gain a com"etiti3e ad3antage o3er China. "ro3iding another reason for "oliticians to ta5e action. 7ra=ilian reformist forces #ere alread& tr&ing to con3ince the federal authorities to assume a leadershi" role in the global climate negotiations. but the e3ident sha"e of e3entual 9! action gal3anised a "roacti3e res"onse from 7ra=ilian industr&. Get 7ra=il’s carbon "roTle meant that it had com"arati3el& fe# CCM in3estment o""ortunities. "lants are blooming se3eral da&s earlier than a decade agoMN Lrising sea tem"eratures ha3e been accom"anied b& a significant global increase in the most destructi3e hurricanesMN LN2!2 scientists ha3e concluded from direct tem"erature measurements that )**I #as the hottest &ear on record. )**(l LForeign 2ffairs !trateg&J 4ogic for 2merican !tatecraftM. ".M From the founding of the first cities some +. #i"e a#a& huge "ortions of 2l"ine !no#ca"s and aid the s"read of cholera and malariaMN Lglaciers in the 2ntarctic and in Greenland are melting much faster than e/"ected. ". %he& Foined en3ironmental NG>s in strongl& criticising their go3ernments for bloc5ing a similar global mechanism that #ould bring them in3estments for forest conser3ation. In )**(. there is one maFor e/istential threat to 2merican securit& (as #ell as "ros"erit&1 of a non3iolent nature. 7ra=il had the Trst CCM "roFect registered (Friberg )**?. )**?1. President 4ula established the 2ma=onian Fund b& e/ecuti3e order. as this sam"le of ne#s"a"er re"orts sho#sJ an international "anel "redicts Lbrutal droughts. %he ^7a"tists’ of the Ministr& of En3ironment. though far in the future. %he Trms belie3ed that. In doing so. led b& utilities and energ& cor"orations.1. )**?1. #hich. es"eciall& after the& had begun to reduce deforestation. %he CCM "roFects "romised ne# in3estment Vo#s and "ossibl& ne# technologies. %hree cor"orate coalitions launched documents in !e"tember )**? as5ing the go3ernment to modif& 7ra=il’s climate stances both domesticall& and internationall& (:iola )*0*1. 2s deforestation rates started dro""ing shar"l& in )**I.*. %he bill died in the !enate. the 7ra=ilian Foreign Ministr& resisted e/tending the CCM to carbon sin5s and forests. #hich has alread& a""ro3ed funding for "roFects totalling some [0)* million. the second largest iron ore "roducer in the #orld. the )***s b& Globescan Radar. #ith 0??X a close secondMN L Earth’s #arming climate is estimated to contribute to more than 0I*. #ho li3es E* miles from the 2rctic Circle. including a stee"er decline in deforestation and a reduction in the gro#th cur3e of emissions from energ& and cattle raising. and China and India gained much larger shares. and #hat #as once a mere "ossibilit& has "assed through "robabilit& to near certaint&. It #as led b& 7ra=ilian multinational :ale. is "articularl& concerned about climate change issues. Lit is 3irtuall& im"ossible to find e3idence of disagreement o3er the fundamentals of global #arming. %his coalition demanded a clear 7ra=ilian commitment. 7ra=ilians ha3e had the highest le3els of concern about global en3ironmental "roblems in a set of di3erse countries sur3e&ed regularl& through emissions reductions (:iola and Franchini )*0)1. LIn legitimate scientific circles. India. 7ra=il almost immediatel& changed its international negotiating "ro"osals. %his coalition W ^%he Coalition of Cor"orations for Climate’ W "ro"osed more ambitious goals than the others.M concluded Inuit hunter Noah MetuB. and NG>s all argued against 7ra=il’s o""osition to e/tending the CCM to forests. ranging from climate friendl& ethanol "roducers to climate conser3ati3e meat"ac5ing Trms. and other higher carbon emerging economies. Most of the Trms in3ol3ed in the coalitions #ere e/"orters to de3elo"ed mar5ets and belie3ed that the 9! la# #ould "ass the !enate and Buic5l& be follo#ed b& similar legislation in all de3elo"ed countries. Ces"ite ha3ing some of the most im"ortant biodi3ersit& and carbon stoc5s in forest in the #orld. 0EI*. %his is an anomal& in the 4atin 2merican "ublic s"here. ConclusionJ 2merican Foreign 2ffairs !trateg& %oda&1 Finall&. the go3ernments of some 2ma=onian states. %he second coalition W ^2lliance of Cor"orations in Fa3or of the Climate’ W #as formed b& agribusiness cor"orations. L%he #orld is slo#l& disintegrating. dominant in state-le3el "olitics in the 2ma=on and #ith a strong bloc in the National Congress (:iola )**. %he 9! @ouse of Re"resentati3es in fact "assed the Da/man-Mar5e& Climate 7ill in 'une of )**?. 7ra=il de3iated from its historic "osition to "ro"ose the creation of a global fund for forest conser3ation alread& at the 0)th Conference of the Parties of the 9NFCCC inNairobi in Cecember )**+. #ith Nor#a&’s Foreign 2 ffairs Ministr& "romising as much as [ 0 billion if "rogress containing deforestation is maintained (Ne"stad et al. 9&na#ay #arming ca&ses e@tinction Dei!el >. #ith the e/"ress "ur"ose of ca"turing donations designated for "re3ention. %he ^Globo Net#or5’.#ere su""orted b& national and international NG>s.M #rites Eli=abeth Kolbert. )*0)1.. its e ffect on "ublic o"inion is high and "ro"onents of climate action garner a large audience for their "ro"osals. demands urgent action. 2nne/ 0 countries and cor"orations #ould contribute to a fund that #ould distribute Tnancial resources according to the "erformance of countries in 3oluntaril& reducing deforestation rates. E3ol3ing forest related negotiation "ositions 2s long as 7ra=ilian deforestation #as high. but the& lost until recentl& (:iola and Franchini )*0)1. including setting a "ea5 date for 7ra=ilian emissions bet#een )*0I and )*)* and mandator& Public o"inion and electoral "olitics Public su""ort for climate action is high in 7ra=il. L%he& call it climate changecbut #e Fust call it brea5ing u". andc#orld#ide. %his "osition #as strongl& su""orted b& rural agricultural and timber elites. %he Trst coalition W ^>"en letter to 7ra=il about climate change’ W included )) large national cor"orations from middle to high carbon intensi3e sectors. #hich lag far behind the modern "arts of the countr& in #ealth and in3estment.*** &ears ago until the beginning of the . and made onl& 3ague "ro"osals. #ith some em"hasis on deforestation control. and combat of deforestation. %he Fund is administered b& the 7ra=ilian National Ce3elo"ment 7an5 (7NCE!1. %he local media contributed to their concern. #ho raised "ublic a#areness and hel"ed "ressure the beef and so& industries to 5ee" 2ma=on deforesters out of their su""l& chains (Ne"stad et al.*** deaths and I million illnesses each &ear M as disease s"readsN L#ides"read bleaching from %e/as to %rinidadc5illed broad s#aths of coralsM due to a )-degree rise in sea tem"eratures. 2ccording to the 7ra=ilian "ro"osal. since 7ra=il had alread& reduced deforestation and carbon emissions and e/"orting Trms #ere mostl& in lo# carbon sectors. #hich the& no# e/"ected to mo3e for#ard ra"idl&. )**?. the Ministr& of the En3ironment Tnall& o3ercame the entrenched o""osition among the Foreign Ministr&’s di"lomats and acti3el& contributed to the de3elo"ment of a ne# forest instrument (RECCt. %he 2ma=onian go3ernors created a coalition in )**? to acti3el& "ush for a change of go3ernment strateg& (Ne"stad et al. Indeed not one of more than ?** articles on climate change "ublished in refereed scientific Fournals from 0??E to )**E doubted that anthro"ogenic #arming is occurring. Macedo et al. monitoring. Reducing Emissions from Ceforestation and Forest Cegradation1 in Co"enhagen. #ith ?)_ of res"ondents sa&ing in )*0* that the& belie3ed global en3ironmental "roblems #ere 3er& serious. National and transnational cor"orations that ha3e a long-term climate 3ision formed the third coalition. It is the threat of global #arming to the stabilit& of the climate u"on #hich all earthl& life de"ends. 7NCE! announced the most im"ortant donation agreements to date. Ces"ite this "ro"osal. floods and 3iolent storms across the "lanet o3er the ne/t centur&MN climate change could Lliterall& alter ocean currents. %his #as the Trst time that 7ra=il acce"ted lin5ing deforestation rates to global Tnancial tools.1. It created the 9nited !tates’ Trst legal frame#or5 for national climate action and included a border ta/ adFustment for "roducts coming from countries that did not ha3e similar emissions controls (]hang )*0*1. a "ilot "rogramme called the ^Forest Protection Pa&ment’ transferred a small amount of cash to local residents for their contribution to maintaining the integrit& of forests. one of the #orld’s largest media conglomerates.

and then e3er&thing #ill colla"se. Faced #ith this s"ecter. associated #ith onl& I-0* degree changes in a3erage global tem"eratures. Global #arming is the "ost-Cold Dar era’s eBui3alent of nuclear #inter at least as serious and considerabl& better su""orted scientificall& . and threatened inundation of lo#-l&ing countries li5e the Pacific nation of Kiribati and the Netherlands at a #arming of I degrees or less the Greenland and Dest 2ntarctic ice sheets could disintegrate. but "otentiall& to the continued e@istence of life on t is planet2 . #e are thus in for significant global #armingN the onl& debate is ho# much and ho# serous the effects #ill be. and b& )*I* the& #ill reach I** ""m. so there is no #a& immediatel& to reduce le3els. L#e’re Fust going to burn e3er&thing u"N #e’re going to heat the atmos"here to the tem"erature it #as in the Cretaceous #hen there #ere crocodiles at the "oles. 2s the ne#s"a"er stories Buoted abo3e sho#. Past ice age transitions. 9nfortunatel&. atmos"heric C>) lasts about a centur&. e3en though no one #as then "ouring e3erincreasing amounts of carbon into the atmos"here. too5 "lace in Fust decades. about double "re-industrial le3els.** ""m. s#am" the southern third of Florida. onl& to slo# their increase. Economist Dilliam Cline once estimated the damage to the 9nited !tates alone from moderate le3els of #arming at 0-+ "ercent of GCP annuall& N se3ere #arming could cost 0E-)+ "ercent of GCP. mass die offs of "lants and animals. carbon dio/ide le3els in the atmos"here remained relati3el& constant at about )X* "arts "er million (""m1. 2nother catastro"hic effect #ould be the colla"se of the 2tlantic thermohaline circulation that 5ee"s the #inter #eather in Euro"e far #armer than its latitude #ould other#ise allo#. #e are alread& e/"eriencing the effects of 0-) degree #arming in more 3iolent storms. sa&s "h&sics "rofessor Mart& @offert of Ne# Gor5 9ni3ersit&. and inundate Manhattan u" to the middle of Green#ich :illage. 2t "resent the& are accelerating to#ard . astronomer Carl !agan "o"ulari=ed a theor& of nuclear #inter to describe ho# a thermonuclear #ar bet#een the 9ntied !tates and the !o3iet 9nion #ould not onl& destro& both countries but "ossibl& end life on this "lanet. It is a threat not onl& to the securit& and "ros"erit& to the 9nited !tates. leading to a sea le3el of rise of )* feet that #ould co3er North Carolina’s outer ban5s. >3er the long run it "uts dangers form terrorism and traditional militar& challenges to shame.industrial re3olution. 7ut the most frightening scenario is runa#a& greenhouse #arming. s"read of disease.M Curing the Cold Dar. the best one can conclude is that Lhuman5ind’s continuing enhancement of the natural greenhouse effect is a5in to "la&ing Russian roulette #ith the earth’s climate and humanit&’s life su""ort s&stem. s"ecies e/tinction . 2t #orst. based on "ositi3e feedbac5 from the buildu" of #ater 3a"or in the atmos"here that is both caused b& and causes hotter surface tem"eratures.

L2 4eader Dithout Follo#ers6 %he Gro#ing Ci3ergence 7et#een the Regional and Global Performance of 7ra=ilian Foreign Polic&. 'ul& 0)th. India.org-bra=il-global-bra=il-us-bra=il-relations-")I. and Chinab1. %he main goal is no longer to integrate !outh 2merica into a regional bloc #ith a single 3oice but to limit damages that could s"ill o3er its borders or stain its international image as regional "acifier. htt"J--###.!. and ad3iser to Citigrou"’s senior management on global strateg& and on international matters. its ambitions are increasingl& defensi3e rather than offensi3e. %his has turned a #ould-be leader into a fireman or. and eighth-largest econom&. a 7! from Cornell 9ni3ersit& and a PhC from MI%. a grou"ing of gro#th mar5ets that accounted for )E "ercent of global gross domestic "roduct (GCP1 in )*0* and #ill collecti3el& reach [)I trillion to o3erta5e the 9. u )*00 9ni3ersit& of Miami.Bra6il DA – A+F Hegemony +&rn Bra6ilian lea'ers ip 'oesnCt . since "re3enting trouble in its bac5&ard seems to be a necessar& condition for 7ra=il to consolidate its global gains. ++.ey to m&ltipolarity Bo'man an' Wolfenso n/ 11 . %he name of the game is to 5ee" Buiet rather than lead the neighborhood. economic turmoil. fifth-largest "o"ulation. Master of 7usiness 2dministration (M721 degree at @ar3ard 7usiness !chool. secretar& of energ& from )**I to )**?. 'ames C. %hus. 44C. (LGlobal 7ra=il and 9. is the 7 in the 7RICs (along #ith Russia. Lit ma& be the rising "o#er in the 2mericas but 7ra=il is finding that di"lomatic ambition can "rom"t resentment. and border conflicts.*(1--@24 7ra=il is and #ill remain an integral force in the e3olution of a multi"olar #orld . damage control has become its central tas5.!. the countr& ma& find itself closer to the categor& of a traditional rather than an emerging middle "o#er. )*00.M 42%IN 2MERIC2N P>4I%IC! 2NC !>CIE%G. 7ra=il has not become indifferent to the region. @o#e3er. It ran5s as the #orld’s fifth-largest landmass. chairman of Citigrou"’s international ad3isor& board. it seems sufficient to stabili=e the region and "re3ent "olitical instabilit&. htt"J--americo. a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Dolfensohn is chairman of Dolfensohn P Com"an&. M242M9CJ 7R2]I4’! F>REIGN P>4ICG.ill *( egemony %alam&'/ 11 – research fello# at the Institute of !ocial !ciences (IC!1 of the 9ni3ersit& of 4isbon. 7ra=il’s economic "ro#ess "laces it in a leadershi" "osition in 4atin 2merica and in the #orld and boosts the region’s strategic im"ortance globall&. es"eciall& for the 9nited !tates.usal. Bra6il . .es-iberoame-sites-default-files-malamudQbrasilQleaderQ#ithoutQfollo#er s. a leader of last resort. @e is a honorar& trustee of the 7roo5ings Institution. 7ra=il.M 7& tr&ing to mitigate this resentment. PhC in Political !cience from the Euro"ean 9ni3ersit& Institute (E9I1 in Florence.M Inde"endent %as5 Force Re"ort No. No#. it can as"ire to a leading role on the global stage as long as it goes it alone. In other #ords. (2ndres."df1--@24 %o be sure. #here he #as also associate "rofessor of chemical engineering. as %he Economist ()**Xb1 a"tl& remar5ed.cfr. as Carlos guenan once "ara"hrased from economics Fargon.-7ra=il Relations. Gi3en that 7ra=il is not a re3isionist "o#er that intends to u"set the s&stem but rather a reformist one that #ishes to enter it. Council on Foreign Relations.!. #hich ma& become the #orld’s fifth-largest econom& b& )*0+. econom& #ithin the ne/t decade.9.

Dhen he too5 the "osition in )**.Bra6il DA – A+F 9elations +&rn 9elations resilient WWIC(/ > (%he Doodro# Dilson International Center for !cholars.org-inde/. "olicies and embraced the fact that it is in 7ra=il’s best interests to foster strong relations #ith the 9nited !tates.-7ra=ilian RelationsM. L%he Future of 9. as illustrated b& its leading role in the current international efforts to stabili=e @aiti and b& its contribution to the resolution of the conflict bet#een Peru and Ecuador in the 0??*s Hin both cases in close coo"eration #ith the 9nited !tates.!. and 9. Ces"ite the e/istence of differences. the 9nited !tates has mista5enl& #ithdra#n from certain international discussions and scenarios and erroneousl& engaged in others. Ces"ite these challenges. argued 2bdenur. 2bdenur argued that the bilateral relationshi" has reached an un"recedented le3el of mutual understanding and deference to the other countr&’s "ositions and o"inions. such as climate change and the Middle East.!. 2bdenur is assured that 7ra=il #ould be its natural all& in such an endea3or. 2dditionall&. if and #hen the 9nited !tates decides to refocus its energies u"on the region. 4ula has "ut aside his misgi3ings about some 9.0?PfuseactionOto"ics. troo"s and officials from the Furisdiction of the International Criminal Court. >ther "otential obstacles to strengthening the relationshi" that #ere successfull& a3oided include "ossible trade sanctions against 7ra=il o3er intellectual "irac&. 4atin 2merica is o3erloo5ed b& its Northern neighbor. threat to remo3es its General !&stem of Preferences for 7ra=il(#hich #ould ha3e negati3el& affected a""ro/imatel& four billion dollars of 7ra=ilian e/"orts to the 9nited !tates1.!.-*(.e3entQsummar&Pe3entQidO)0E?X?1 Not a single action ta5en or decision made b& the 9nited !tates in the last three &ears has negati3el& affected 7ra=ilian interests. @o#e3er. 7ra=il’s refusal to e/em"t 9.#ilsoncenter. 7ra=il has good relations #ith all of its neighbors and strategicall& occu"ies a moderate s"ace bet#een the region’s di3ergent interests and traFectories. 7ra=ilian indignation #ith IraB and o3er onerous 3isa "rocedures and "oor treatment of 3isiting nationals had caused a tem"orar& strain in the relationshi". relations are on a "roducti3e "latform to foster "ositi3e de3elo"ments in the future. claimed 2mbassador Roberto 2bdenur. .!. facilitated in no small "art b& President 4ula’s "ragmatism. 7ra=il-9. before a "ac5ed conference room in #hat #as his last "ublic a""earance as 7ra=il’s ambassador in Dashington.cfm6 to"icQidO0.!. htt"J--###. 2bdenur argued that the 9nited !tates is not the onl& actor that must ta5e decisi3e ste"s to#ards a con3ergence of interests bet#een the t#o countriesJ 7ra=il must sto" fearing the 9nited !tates and instead embrace it as a "artner. Much to the disdain of 7ra=il. 0-). mutual charges of dum"ing..

.

Freedom @ouse. Main#aring’s findings also stress the im"ortance of neighboring democracies.!. "g. E-)(-0E. Main#aring also added t#o more im"ortant factorsJ the degree of radicalism and 9! foreign "olic&. htt"J--###. so too must be the res"onse.ha3e begun to "ublicl& denounce Destern democrac& assistance as illegitimate "olitical meddling. international organi=ations and the 9nited !tates. but to 2merican inter3entionism. %o remain as effecti3e in the ne/t decade as the& ha3e been in the last.M Foreign 2ffairs. 7ut its "ro"onents are clearl& learning from and feeding off of one another. %he& ha3e started e/"elling or harassing Destern NG>s and "rohibiting local grou"s from ta5ing foreign funds -. Main#aring’s team "erformed e/tensi3e Buantitati3e anal&ses. grou"s such as the National Cemocratic Institute (NCI1.M Council for a Communit& of Cemocracies. and >/ford. the normati3e "references of 5e& actors and the regime t&"e of neighboring countries "la&ed an im"ortant "art in the often 3iolent transitions from democrac& to authoritarianism that "lagued 4atin 2merica throughout much of the )*th centur&. Main#aring argues that the main e/"lanations for democrati=ing regime change are the normati3e "references of the actors in3ol3ed and the regional "olitical en3ironment.some of them elected officials -. or e3en orchestration of. former "roferssor at Central Euro"ean 9ni3ersit&. Politicians from China to ]imbab#e ha3e "ublicl& cited concerns about such e3ents s"reading to their o#n shores as Fustification for ne# restrictions on Destern aid to NG>s and o""osition grou"s. Issue ). militar& cou"s consistently le' to authoritarian regime c ange2 + at !ac.Democracy DA – 1NC *2(2 lea'ers ip o"er Latin America necessitates t e promotion of 'emocracy %at eny/ 14 (2dam. s"ecificall& about ho# the "resident8s $freedom agenda$ is "ercei3ed around the #orld. the main dri3ers behind democratic regime change in 4atin 2merica are not the economic factors highlighted b& moderni=ation theor&. %ashma1 In order to e/"lain these trends. %ashma1 %he la# is also a sign of an eBuall& disturbing and much broader trend. II-+X. Moreo3er. #hich offers an e/"lanation to the #a3es of regime change in the region. and the >"en !ociet& Institute "la&ed a 5e& behind-the-scenes role in fomenting these u"hea3als ha3e clearl& hel"ed trigger the bac5lash. In the case of authoritarian regime change. from both the left and from the right. %his gro#ing bac5lash has &et to coalesce into a formal or organi=ed mo3ement. Moreo3er. 2 high degree of radicalism. Main#aring’s findings suggest that these t#o factors ha3e "la&ed a large "art in democratic brea5do#ns as #ell.fires an' ca&ses a s ift a#ay from 'emocracy Carot ers/ $ (%homas. the International Re"ublican Institute (IRI1. March-2"ril )**+.html. must also face some un"leasant realities. Get there is something broader at #or5 than Fust a fear of orange (95raine8s re3olution came to be 5no#n as the >range Re3olution1. LDilson Center @osts Ciscussion on Cemocrac& in 4atin 2merica. 2ccording to Main#aring. militaries. If a state’s 5e& actors W ranging from ci3il societ& to the militar& W belie3ed that democrac& #as the best form of go3ernment. a gro#ing number of go3ernments are starting to crac5 do#n on such acti3ities #ithin their borders. the damage that the 7ush administration has done to the global image of the 9nited !tates as a s&mbol of democrac& and human rights b& re"eatedl& 3iolating the rule of la# at home and abroad has further #ea5ened the legitimac& of the democrac&-"romotion cause. %he results "ro3ide a no3el and often counterintuiti3e e/"lanation for regime change and the Bualit& of democrac& in 4atin 2merica. L%he 7ac5lash 2gainst Cemocrac& Promotion. the shift from authoritarianism to democrac& #as much more li5el&. %he "resence of democracies in the immediate en3ironment #as found to be a main factor in democrati=ation. #hich focused on the main actors in3ol3ed. 3ice "resident for studies at the Carnegie Endo#ment for International Peace. !trongmen -. such as GCP or income ineBualit&.org-ne#s-americas-latinQamericaQdemocrati=ation. mean#hile. grou"s that "romote democrac& must come to gri"s #ith ho# the international conte/t for their #or5 has changed. Instead. and Nuffield College. such as "oliticians. %his #ill mean rethin5ing some of their methods. 2fter t#o decades of the stead& e/"ansion of democrac&-building "rograms around the #orld. !ome autocratic go3ernments ha3e #on substantial "ublic s&m"ath& b& arguing that o""osition to Destern democrac& "romotion is resistance not to democrac& itself.ccd)0. #here he founded and currentl& directs the Cemocrac& and Rule of 4a# Program. often "receded democratic brea5do#ns in the region. %he #a& that President George D. and must engage . 4i5e democrati=ation. 'ust as the sources of the bac5lash ha3e been multila&ered. %he 7ush administration. 7ush is ma5ing democrac& "romotion a central theme of his foreign "olic& has clearl& contributed to the unease such efforts (and the idea of democrac& "romotion itself1 are creating around the #orld. the 'ohns @o"5ins !chool of 2d3anced International !tudies. :olume XI. *( infl&ence #as so great in Latin America t at *( s&pport for. %he recent $color re3olutions$ in Georgia. and K&rg&=stan and the #ides"read sus"icion that 9. 95raine.or ha3e started "unishing them for doing so.

for e/am"le. democrac&"romotion grou"s ha3e e/"erienced minor but "ointed harassment from Russian authorities.!. su""ort for 5e& ci3ic and "olitical grou"s in these countries. %he follo#ing month. the 7al5ans. the NCI. as #ell as most of the domestic NG>s that #or5 on democrac& issuesJ in )**I. Go3ernment-controlled ne#s"a"ers in %aFi5istan ha3e accused the 9nited !tates of criminalit& in its su""ort for 95rainian and K&rg&= acti3ists and ha3e "raised 7elarus for its resistance to Destern interference. Cha3e= has accused grou"s such as the NEC and the IRI of su""orting the :ene=uelan o""osition and has intimidated man& local NG>s that recei3e outside funding. 7eiFing has dela&ed the "assage of a ne# la# that #ould liberali=e the rules on NG>s in the countr& and has crac5ed do#n on 3arious local grou"s that recei3e foreign funding. In 2ugust. '9!% !2GING N> %he most s&stematic and forceful resistance to Destern democrac& aid has come from Russia under Putin. #here the door to democrac& "romotion remained firml& shut. and an . the go3ernment recentl& issued ne# regulations shar"l& restricting such acti3ities.!. 9=be5 President Islam Karimo3 is currentl& in the "rocess of shutting do#n most of the Destern democrac& "rograms in his countr&. Else#here in 2sia. claiming that the& are fronts through #hich Destern $colonial masters$ sub3ert the go3ernment. or in ne#l& democrati=ing countries. after 0I &ears of relati3e o"enness to Destern democrac& "rograms. In !outh 2merica. %he reFection last &ear b& the >rgani=ation of 2merican !tates of a 9. President 2le5sandr 4u5ashen5o has also forbidden most e/ternal "olitical aid and has relentlessl& stam"ed out "olitical challengers and inde"endent ci3il societ&. coerci3e. asserting that the 9nited !tates is tr&ing to encircle Russia #ith "ro-Destern go3ernments and sub3ert its "olitical order. it is best understood as the culmination of a longer trend. 7ut as accounts multi"lied of 9. Ethio"ia e/"elled the IRI.seriousl& an effort to build credibilit& for its democrac& endea3or. >ne enthusiastic "artici"ant is China. 4ast 2"ril.!. 95raine. stating that it #as uncomfortable #ith the agenc&8s acti3ities. #hich "roliferated in the former !o3iet 9nion. Mugabe has not &et signed the bill but has 5e"t u" his rhetorical attac5s on alleged Destern meddling. Putin8s su""orters ha3e cast his cam"aign against "rodemocrac& grou"s as a securit& im"erati3e. Russia is not the onl& countr& "ushing bac5 against Destern democrac& assistanceN the resistance has become a #ides"read "ost-!o3iet "astime. in the ho"e of s"reading #hat he calls his $7oli3arian Re3olution. #hich is rife #ith anti-2mericanism and increasingl& dominated b& left-leaning go3ernments. intermediate t&"eJ the semiauthoritarian state. 4u5ashen5o banned foreign funding of an& "olitical or educational acti3ities in the countr&. %he NG> la# is Fust one of a series of recent actions Mosco# has ta5en to constrain or challenge democrac&-"romotion grou"s. In Cecember )**. and Russia has started building its o#n ca"acit& to "ro3ide "arallel forms of assistance.!. !e3eral 9. Ecuador. %&"icall&. a scattering of inde"endent ci3ic grou"s. the color re3olutions also s"read the idea that the 9nited !tates #as the shado#& guiding force behind these e3ents. %he %aFi5 go3ernment announced ne# regulations in 2"ril )**I reBuiring foreign embassies and foreign organi=ations #or5ing in the countr& to gi3e the authorities notice before ma5ing an& contact #ith local "olitical "arties.$ 2nd in Eritrea. in )**E. the go3ernment enacted a ne# la# last &ear forbidding local NG>s from engaging in an& #or5 other than relief acti3ities and bloc5ing them from recei3ing e/ternal su""ort. 7eiFing is also tightening restrictions on foreign media b& ste""ing u" measures to scramble e/ternal radio broadcasts and re3ersing an earlier decision to allo# the local "ublication of foreign ne#s"a"ers. @e has allegedl& used his "etrodollars to su""ort anti-2merican "arties and candidates in 7oli3ia. including a human rights grou" su""orted b& the National Endo#ment for Cemocrac& (NEC1. #hich include "romoting citi=en "artici"ation in economic and "olitical life. through election monitors and "olitical consultants. or media organi=ations. in 7elarus. go3ernment de3oted to su""orting democrac& #orld#ide. :ene=uelan President @ugo Cha3e= regularl& blasts 9. "ro"osal to establish a ne# regional mechanism to monitor go3ernmental com"liance #ith democratic norms reflected this gro#ing s5e"ticism. Further north. !EEING >R2NGE Dhat e/actl& e/"lains this global bac5lash against democrac& "romotion6 %he recent re3olutions in Georgia. the Chinese Communist Part& re"ortedl& ma""ed out a strateg& for resisting 9. In a s"eech last !e"tember. and the Middle East. 2nd li5e Putin. Mean#hile. and Euro"ean efforts to "romote color re3olutions in China and its neighborhood. 2genc& for International Ce3elo"ment to cease o"erations in the countr&. NG>s. Prime Minister Meles ]ena#i stated on Ethio"ian tele3ision that $there is not going to be a 8Rose Re3olution8 or a 8Green Re3olution8 or an& color re3olution in Ethio"ia after the election. %he bac5lash against democrac& aid has also started to s"read outside the former !o3iet 9nion.$ 2lthough Cha3e= remains an e/treme case. #ariness of *2(2 'emocracy promotion is rising in t e region. and IFE! (formerl& the International Foundation for Election !&stems1 "rior to national elections last Ma&. %he dramatic u"hea3als in these countries sho#ed #hat huge numbers of ordinar& citi=ens can do #hen the& rall& bra3el& for democrac&. 2lthough fear of democrac& aid as a tool of the 9nited !tates ma& ha3e s"i5ed #ith the color re3olutions. and immoral. aid at home. go3ernments ha3e enacted similar restrictionsJ in Ne"al.!. ]imbab#e8s "arliament "assed legislation "rohibiting local NG>s from recei3ing an& outside aid. an article in the Peo"le8s Cail& condemned the 9nited !tates8 $democratic offensi3e$ in the former !o3iet 9nion and else#here as self-ser3ing. and K&rg&=stan #ere clearl& im"ortant e3ents.!. more than +* "ercent of 9=be5istan8s acti3e NG>s #ere "ut out of business. ]imbab#ean President Robert Mugabe has dri3en out Destern NG>s and forced the closure of man& local grou"s that get e/ternal su""ort. and else#here. %he bac5lash is s"reading to 2frica as #ell. he added his 3oice to the regional chorus #arning foreign NG>s not to tr& to destabili=e former !o3iet states. 2s time "assed. and senior Russian officials ha3e denounced e/ternal democrac& aid as sub3ersi3e and anti-Russian. 2fter first "utting all foreign funding destined for local NG>s under state control. Nearb& in Ka=a5hstan. !uch regimes t&"icall& attem"t an artful "olitical balancing act. %he Kremlin has also attac5ed the >rgani=ation for !ecurit& and Coo"eration in Euro"e (>!CE1 for its election-monitoring #or5 in Russia and neighboring countries. man& of the ne#l& democrati=ing countries e3ol3ed into another.!. Putin8s go3ernment has critici=ed Russian NG>s #or5ing on human rights or other "oliticall& sensiti3e issues for acce"ting outside funds. Cha3e= is not content Fust to bloc5 9.!.. sub-!aharan 2frica. 2smara as5ed the 9. 2rticles in the statecontrolled media ha3e accused the 9nited !tates of tr&ing to undermine 9=be5 so3ereignt& through the %roFan horse of democrati=ation. #here the door to such acti3ities #as generall& #ide o"en. this means holding regular elections and "ermitting the creation of a fe# o""osition "arties. democrac& "romotion as being "art of a 7ush administration cam"aign to oust him. Peru. a "ri3ate foundation funded b& the 9. President Putin has also ta5en to #arning fello# autocrats in surrounding countries of the dangers of allo#ing such aid. President Nursultan Na=arba&e3 has enacted similarl& tight restrictions on coo"eration bet#een foreign entities and Ka=a5h "olitical "arties. during the ra"id democratic e/"ansion of the late 0?X*s and earl& 0??*s. %heir leaders allo# enough "olitical freedoms to gain themsel3es some credit and legitimac& as reformers. Dhen democrac& "romotion first flourished. acti3ists usuall& had to #or5 in one of t#o conte/tsJ in authoritarian societies.

$ !ince then. 9. but Fust to ensure reasonabl& free and fair elections. 2t the end of the 0??*s. such as their su""ort for the o""osition to General 2ugusto Pinochet in the Chilean "lebiscite of 0?XX and for the o""osition to !andinista rule in the Nicaraguan elections of 0??*. 2nd the& encouraged these "arties to #or5 together and build broad coalitions. in an incom"lete form. 2t first. but it #orried more about the influence it #ould lose in neighboring states than it did about a "olitical u"rising at home. machinations hel"ed Putin "ut a "ositi3e s"in on #hat #as one of his most glaring foreign "olic& failuresJ namel&. 2nd the 3er& same t&"es of assistance ha3e so far "ro3ed far less effecti3e in countries such as 7elarus. this a""roach #as brought to bear -. and Euro"ean "ro-democrac& grou"s mounted a #ell-coordinated and #ell-funded (to the tune of [+* million to [0** million1 aid cam"aign to hel" !erbian ci3ic and "olitical grou"s mount an electoral challenge to Milose3ic. ho#e3er. #estern Euro"e. Destern grou"s hel"ed locals gain the abilit& to do inde"endent election monitoring. Georgia. actions during the Cold Dar.!. In man& "laces. s#inging elections or o3erthro#ing legitimate go3ernments. mutuall& reinforcing #a&s. 4i5e all t&"es of e/ternal assistance "romoting "olitical. 2s the )*** elections unfolded. ho#e3er. often including d&namic ne# student organi=ations. and Freedom @ouse1 settled on a more effecti3e a""roach. it can do so. #here the "olitical o""osition and ci3il societ& are relati3el& #ea5 and the regime is 3er& "o#erful.!. 2nd &et. these subtleties are generall& lost on the targets of democrac&-"romotion dri3es. this aid is far from being a magic eli/ir. the more e/"erienced grou"s (such as the NCI. that could foster broad ci3ic engagement in the electoral "rocess. In some "laces. %he s"ecter of cle3er 9. his su""ort for the losing side in the 95rainian elections. the current #a3e of asserti3e democrac& aid conFures u" memories of co3ert 9. is that although most e/ternal democrac& acti3ists ma& indeed be "rimaril& interested in achie3ing free and fair elections. First.outside aid "la&ed onl& a su""orting role for the courageous and s5illful local acti3ists #ho led the #a&. to le3el electoral "la&ing fields and create safeguards against the mani"ulation of the "rocess b& regimes. Putin8s offensi3e against Destern democrac& aid a""ears to be a #a& for him to "ortra& his authoritarian "roFect to Russians as a defense of the countr&8s national securit&. E3en in the case of !erbia -. #ho tend to 3ie# such efforts as concerted cam"aigns to oust them. and ha3e freBuentl& been met #ith accusations of illegitimate "olitical meddling. de"ending on the countr& in Buestion and the officials in charge. the IRI. in order to ensure that citi=ens could at least learn the real results of elections. Moreo3er. go3ernment agencies that fund (but do not s"ecificall& direct1 man& of the democrac& grou"s are similarl& com"licated. 7ut these regimes also maintain a strong enough hold on the le3ers of "o#er to ensure that no serious threats to their rule emerge.not Fust autocrats feeling the heat -. %he grou"s usuall& res"ond b& "ointing out that the& #or5 o"enl&. >range Re3olution in 95raine.inde"endent ne#s"a"er or t#o. !econd. b& embracing democrac& "romotion in the #a& he has. more full&. %he aid focused on im"ro3ing local ca"acit& in se3eral. #ea5er countries. or social change. %he truth. man& "eo"le around the #orld -. es"eciall& in smaller.first. 7ut it is also lin5ed to and gains force from another sourceJ the broader "ublic unease #ith the 3er& idea of democrac& "romotion. democrac&-"romotion "rograms as ha3ing been the crucial factor in certain countries8 transitions to democrac& also contribute to the mis"erce"tions. >3er time. es"eciall& larger countries such as Russia and China. %he outcome #as the autocrat8s ouster in a largel& "eaceful $electoral re3olution. 7elarus. %he Russian and Chinese go3ernments enFo& a strong gri" on "o#er and face no significant challengers. man& "ro-democrac& organi=ations found themsel3es st&mied b& such semiauthoritarian arrangements.3ie# e/ternal democrac& assistance s5e"ticall&. against Prime Minister :ladimir Meciar of !lo3a5ia and President FranFo %udFman of Croatia. IFE!.although ne3er as am"l& funded or as strongl& bac5ed b& di"lomatic "ressure -. e3en though in actualit& Destern democrac& aid is not so "o#erful. economic. all the "ieces fell into "laceJ #ith Destern hel". K&rg&=stan. President 7ush. 4atin 2merica. some Destern NG>s. #hether "ro"elled b& hubris or the desire to con3ince funders of their im"ortance. the Chinese go3ernment8s recent in3ocations of the color re3olutions a""ear to be nothing more than the "resentation of a con3enient rationale for broadening the antiliberali=ation cam"aign it has been conducting for se3eral &ears. denigrating the >range Re3olution as the result of 9.!. es"eciall& the 9nited !tates. It can hel" boost e/isting ci3ic grou"s and o""osition "arties. some genuine fear seems to be at #or5. a Buestion naturall& arisesJ 2re the& genuinel& afraid that relati3el& modest Destern democrac&-training "rograms and financial aid for often #ea5 ci3ic and "olitical grou"s #ill undermine their hold on "o#er. or is this fear Fust a con3enient Fustification for re"ressi3e measures the& #ould ta5e an&#a&6 %he ans#er 3aries. the& "ro3ided bac5ing to inde"endent ci3ic grou"s. and sometimes succeeded in. 2 (CIM1 4IG@% 9N%> %@E N2%I>N! %he bac5lash against democrac& aid can be understood as a reaction b& nondemocratic go3ernments to the increasingl& asserti3e "ro3ision of such aid. the latter e/"lanation "robabl& holds. including court-management "rograms and assistance for go3ernment decentrali=ation efforts. Not sur"risingl&. %o ma5e matters #orse. %he Kremlin ma& ha3e been some#hat rattled b& the )**. #ho #as alread& under "ressure from Destern economic sanctions and "uniti3e di"lomatic measures. ha3e a tendenc& to claim substantial credit for "olitical e3ents in #hich the& "la&ed onl& a 3er& minor role. ranging from the "rinci"led to the instrumental.!. %he moti3es of 9. !imilarl&. the Middle East. the mone& is s"read o3er more than I* countries and goes to a #ide range of efforts. the& trained and sometimes "ro3ided eBui"ment or other material assistance to o""osition "arties to hel" them cam"aign effecti3el&. !erbian ci3ic grou"s con3inced large numbers of ordinar& citi=ens to bet on change and engage in the electoral "rocessN the o""osition "arties "erformed better than the& had in the "astN and inde"endent monitoring efforts laid bare Milose3ic8s effort to o3erride the results. Cra#ing on lessons some of these grou"s had learned during earlier successes. de"ending on the countr&. the& argue. #hen Dashington did tr&. 2lthough Dashington ma& s"end more than [0 billion on "ro-democrac& "rograms this &ear. . >utside aid is necessar&. "olitical o"erati3es Buietl& fomenting local re3olutions does seem to ha3e s"oo5ed some strongmen.a high-#ater mar5 in terms of "ro-democrac& "rograms8 asserti3eness and scale -. and then. and 95raine.!. the& also freBuentl& ho"e that their efforts #ill increase the li5elihood that autocrats #ill lose office. not in secret. is largel& res"onsible for this discomfort. >ccasional stories in the Destern media that "ortra& 9. 2lthough autocratic leaders regularl& cite concerns about outside influence and the threat of instabilit& as their moti3ations for resisting "ro-democrac& efforts.!. Destern grou"s ha3e a""lied similar strategies -. %hird. and else#here. a feeling that has s"read #idel& in the "ast se3eral &ears throughout the former !o3iet 9nion. and b& arguing that their goals are not to achie3e s"ecific electoral outcomes. against President !lobodan Milose3ic of !erbia.in 2=erbaiFan. instigated or at least bac5ed b& "o#erful Destern go3ernments. including the ca"acit& to hold "arallel 3ote counts. 7ut it cannot create them #here the& do not e/ist or strengthen them #hen the& are fundamentall& #ea5. In other cases. %he& assume that if the 9nited !tates decides to sha"e "olitical outcomes in relati3el& #ea5 countries. the a""roach consisted of "ro3iding technical and financial aid to a broad range of local ci3ic and "olitical grou"s #or5ing together to challenge the go3ernment through elections.

. (I1 Russett cites his o#n and other statistical e/"lorations #hich sho# that #hile democracies rarel& fight one another the& often fight against others. such e/am"les abound. . 4ater.$ (01 Fu5u&ama8s "hrase #as intentionall& "ro3ocati3e. Israel #as an embr&onic democrac& and 4ebanon.$ 7ut that is not Buite rightJ the #ord $regularl&$ distorts the issue. .html1 !M 2 third significance of 4atin 2merica toda& is as a prime arena.org-s&llabi-mura3chi5. . %o reduce the data to a form that is Buantitati3el& measurable.ey to glo!al 'emocracy Lo#ent al 0E (2braham 4o#enthal W Professor at the !chool of International Relations at the 9ni3ersit& of !outhern California and President of the Pacific Council on International Polic& (PCIP1. to the bitter end. had it reali=ed that England #ould fight to 3indicate 7elgian neutralit& and to su""ort France. Cemocracies are not onl& slo# to anger but also Buic5 to com"romise.M 'ul 00. ho#e3er.$ 7& this he meant the conclusion of man8s Buest for the right social order. 0??. the #orld#ide a""eal and credibilit& of these ideas ma& de"end im"ortantl& on #hether our nearest neighbors can ma5e them #or5.$ ()1 Kennan8s 3ie# #as strongl& influenced b& the "olic& of $unconditional surrender$ "ursued in Dorld Dar II. $%hat democracies are in general. 7ut subseBuent e/"erience. LCemocrac& and nuclear "eace. and one for #hich there is little s&stematic e3idence. but that does not ma5e the 3ictim eBuall& bellicose.edu-la-region-ne#s-arc-lasnet-0??. 7uchanan ha3e both instanced democratic England8s declaration of #ar against democratic Finland during Dorld Dar II. 3alues of democratic go3ernance and free-mar5et economics. . Francis Fu5u&ama argued that democrac&8s e/tension #as leading to $the end of histor&. %he strongest e/ce"tion I can thin5 of is the #ar bet#een the nascent state of Israel and the 2rabs in 0?.and "erforce of nuclear "eace -. htt"J--lanic. !addam @ussein8s decision to s#allo# Ku#ait #as "robabl& encouraged b& the inference he must ha3e ta5en from the statements and actions of 2merican officials that Dashington #ould offer no forceful resistance. . England did accede to the "ressure of its !o3iet all& to declare #ar against Finland #hich #as allied #ith German&. after much "rocrastination. ho#e3er. For e/am"le. and subseBuent boo5. 2 3ictim can sometimes turn the tables on an aggressor. Indeed.for the core 9. but their challenges ha3e onl& ser3ed as em"irical tests that ha3e confirmed its robustness. (. None #ould dis"ute that Na"oleon #as res"onsible for the Na"oleonic #ars or . . but once aroused $a democrac& . th. #as also democratic #ithin the confines of its "eculiar confessional di3ision of "o#er. Cemocracies. "olic&1. the academic Paul Gottfried and the columnist-turned-"olitician Patric5 '.1 In fact. L2mericans Must 2cce"t International Coo"erationM W Februar& 0. Russett sa&s that those #ho claim democracies are in general more "eaceful $#ould ha3e us belie3e that the 9nited !tates #as regularl& on the defensi3e. 4ebanon did little fighting and soon sued for "eace. htt"J--###.ute/as. %hus. . e3en tongue-in-chee5. it o""osed the #ar but #ent along #ith its larger confreres #hen the& o"ted to attac5. %he "olitical scientist 7ruce Russett offers a different challenge to the notion that democracies are more "eaceful. .together #ith the former !o3iet 9nion and the countries of Eastern and Central Euro"e. 2merica treated 'a"an and that "art of German& that it occu"ied #ith e/traordinar& generosit&. 7ut the declaration #as "urel& formalJ no fighting ensued bet#een England and Finland.$ (E1 !ome of those #ho find enthusiasm for democrac& off-"utting ha3e challenged this "ro"osition. In a famous article.ey to sol"e for e@tinction %&ra"c i.is the s"read of democrac&. In recent &ears a burgeoning literature has discussed the "eacefulness of democracies. @itler #as emboldened b& his notorious contem"t for the flabbiness of the democracies. is that the& rarel& e/amine the Buestion of #ho started or caused a #ar. In 0??*. %he trouble #ith such studies.-*0)(. #ere slo# to anger. but he #as "ointing to t#o do#n-to-earth historical obser3ationsJ that democracies are more "eaceful than other 5inds of go3ernment and that the #orld is gro#ing more democratic. 2nd to forgi3e.!. Indeed the "ro"osition that democracies do not go to #ar #ith one another has been described b& one "olitical scientist as being $as close as an&thing #e ha3e to an em"irical la# in international relations. such as the negotiated settlements 2merica sought in Korea and :ietnam "ro3ed him #rong. German& might ha3e beha3ed more cautiousl& in the summer of 0?0. as distinguished an obser3er of international relations as George Kennan made a claim Buite contrar& to the first of these assertions. he said. as in the case of England against Finland. fights in anger . Neither "oint has gone unchallenged. but he also meant the $diminution of the li5elihood of large-scale conflict bet#een states. !urel& this is an e/ce"tion that "ro3es the rule.X. 4ebanon. 1 W Resident !cholar at 2merican Enter"rise Institute 'oshua.!. in the case of 4ebanon against Israel.htm %he greatest im"etus for #orld "eace -. Dithin the councils of the 2rab 4eague. rarel& on the offensi3e. during the Cold Dar. in dealing #ith all 5inds of states. Democracy is . Not#ithstanding the insistence on unconditional surrender.$ he sa&s. it is easier to determine #hether a conflict has occurred bet#een t#o states than #hose fault it #as. more "eaceful than are authoritarian or other nondemocraticall& constituted states .is a much more contro3ersial "ro"osition than 8merel&8 that democracies are "eaceful in their dealings #ith each other. democracies nominall& #ent to #ar against democracies #hen the& #ere dragged into conflicts b& authoritarian allies.n"ec-#eb. #as a reluctant "art& to the fight. E3en so. >nl& a fe# decades ago. 7ut the latter Buestion is all im"ortant.Latin America is . one of the 2rab belligerents. 2s both democrac& and ca"italism are se3erel& challenged in the former Communist countries.. North Korea almost surel& discounted the li5elihood of an 2merican militar& res"onse to its in3asion of the !outh after !ecretar& of !tate Cean 2cheson "ublicl& defined 2merica8s defense "erimeter to e/clude the Korean "eninsula (a declaration #hich merel& confirmed e/isting 9. Cemocracies ma& often go to #ar against dictatorshi"s because the dictators see them as "re& or underestimate their resol3e.

I 5no# of no case #here a democrac& has initiated #arfare #ithout significant "ro3ocation or for reasons of sheer aggrandi=ement. . or rather to forecast. democrac& is the #illingness to resol3e ci3il dis"utes #ithout recourse to 3iolence. such as Israel8s in3asion of 4ebanon in 0?X) to root out an enem& s#orn to its destruction or %ur5e&8s in3asion of C&"rus to rebuff a "o#er-grab b& Gree5 nationalists. In "articular #e should consider #hat in Catholic 'ust Dar doctrine is called $right intention. but if it is li5e the first. @e reasoned that $citi=ens . %he& claim statistical su""ort for the "ro"osition that #hile full& fledged democracies ma& be "acific. because to his mind a critical element in the "eaceful beha3ior of democracies to#ard other democracies is their antici"ation of a conciliator& attitude b& their counter"art. 2t bottom.1 >f the remaining E(. the 9nited !tates ma& ha3e initiated some s5irmishes (although in fact it rarel& did1. 2fter organi=ing an election. such as IraB8s in3asion of Ku#ait.$ (X1 7ut this 3alid insight is incom"lete. ho#e3er. some +). #ill ha3e a great hesitation in . !uch an im"ression. countries become more aggressi3e and #ar-"rone. it #ill run until the around the &ear )0)I. 7ut Mi5hail Gorbache3 made nonsense of their theories #hen. Dashington #as im"elled b& selfinterest more than altruism. %he big e/ce"tion to this rule is colonialism. %he first $#a3e$ of democrati=ation began #ith the 2merican re3olution and lasted through the aftermath of Dorld Dar I. !o the choice $don8t go at all$ (001 is rarel& realistic in the contem"orar& #orld. the& ac5no#ledge that their research re3ealed not onl& an increased li5elihood for a state to become in3ol3ed in a #ar #hen it #as gro#ing more democratic. the other that it la& in the democratic ethos (the $cultural-normati3e model$1. $ (?1 If it is the ethos that ma5es democratic states more "eaceful to#ard each other. %hose #ho follo# @untington8s argument ma& ta5e the failure of democrac& in se3eral of the former !o3iet re"ublics and some other instances of bac5sliding since 0?X? to signal the end of the third #a3e. %he citi=ens and officials of democracies recogni=e that other states.$ he #rote.I "ercent of e/tant go3ernments #ere chosen in legitimate elections. he turned the !o3iet 9nion a#a& from its historic course. but the struggle as a #hole #as dri3en one-sidedl&. follo#ed Dorld Dar II #hen #holesale decoloni=ation ga3e rise to a raft of ne# democracies. namel&. 2nd b& then--#ho 5no#s6-"erha"s man5ind #ill ha3e incinerated itself. North Korea8s of !outh Korea. and it includes man& #ea5l& democratic states. but an almost eBual increase for states gro#ing less democratic. %he Cold Dar ended almost instantl&--as he no doubt 5ne# it #ould. Moreo3er.$ %he so-called re3isionist historians argued that 2merica bore an eBual or larger share of res"onsibilit& for the conflict. the& measure a state8s li5elihood of becoming in3ol3ed in a #ar but do not re"ort attem"ting to determine the cause or fault. and continued to hold their "ri=es as Euro"e democrati=ed. @e aimed to e/"lain #h& democracies are more "eaceful to#ard each other. Da3es rise and fall. and the& are dis"osed to tr& to accommodate those interests e/ce"t #hen the other "art&8s beha3ior seems threatening or outrageous. and it #as abandoned after Dorld Dar II. >ne h&"othesi=ed that the cause la& in the mechanics of democratic decision-ma5ing (the $structural-institutional model$1. rather than b& democrati=ation. #hen 2merica in3aded Grenada. in contrast to some of our historical results. a large number are e/"eriencing some degree of democrati=ation or hea3& "ressure in that direction. @is statistical assessments led him to conclude thatJ $almost al#a&s the cultural-normati3e model sho#s a consistent effect on conflict occurrence and #ar.@itler for Dorld Dar II in Euro"e. bringing the second #a3e to its end. Greece and !"ain is the third such e"isode. the rule seems to beJ go full& democratic. !ince then. %he !o3iet "olic& #as $class #arfare$N the 2merican "olic& #as $containment.$ #hich means roughl&J #hat did the& ho"e to get out of it6 In the fe# cases in recent times in #hich #ars #ere initiated b& democracies. @o# long should #e e/"ect the third to endure6 If it is li5e the second. Nations that embrace this ethos in the conduct of their domestic affairs are naturall& more "redis"osed to embrace it in their dealings #ith other nations. difficulties if the democratic "rocess had de3elo"ed normall& in our countr&. !o in the Cold Dar. #e must as5 not onl& #ho started a #ar but #h&. 2merica "ulled out. he constructed t#o models. e3en if accuratel& inter"reted. . in this telling. %his raises the "ossibilit& that the effects the& #ere obser3ing #ere caused sim"l& b& "olitical change "er se. the !o3iet 9nion8s of @ungar& and 2fghanistan. that the #orld is gro#ing more democratic. Most of these. Finall&. %he Euro"ean "o#ers conBuered most of 2frica and 2sia. but there are se3eral cases #here dictators ha3e done so. notabl& in 2frica. for e/am"le.I "ercent. %here is no reason to su""ose that an& such relationshi" is go3erned b& an immutable la#. "rimaril& its concern for the #ell-being of 2merican nationals and its desire to remo3e a chi". !5e"tics ha3e dra#n u"on !amuel @untington8s fine boo5. %he %hird Da3eJ Cemocrati=ation in the 4ate %#entieth Centur&. !ince their em"irical base reaches bac5 to 0X00. or don8t go at all. 7ut each of the re3erses that follo#ed . In other cases. but after a time their 3ictims sei=ed the offensi3e. ho#e3er tin&. an& effect the& re"ort. Cemocrac& is not Fust a mechanismN it entails a s"irit of com"romise and self-restraint. . the "acific inclination of democracies. %here is a dee"er e/"lanation. the& im"licitl& ac5no#ledge that the relationshi" of democrati=ation and "eacefulness ma& change o3er historical "eriods. li5e others. colla"sed into dictatorshi" b& the 0?+*s. calling do#n on themsel3es all the miseries of #ar. democracies ha3e turned to #ar in the face of "ro3ocation. there #ere often moti3es other than aggrandi=ement. @untington8s meta"hor im"lies a lac5 of o3erall "rogress or direction. %he& note that $in ZsomeR recent cases. . %hese statistics also contain the ans#er to those #ho doubt the second "ro"osition behind Fu5u&ama8s forecast. %o do this. ho#e3er go3erned. Immanuel Kant #as the first to obser3e. mo3ed to another "lanet. the #ars launched b& dictators. Russett aimed to e/"lain #h& democracies are more "eaceful to#ard one another. 2in thZeR transitional "hase of democrati=ation.$ (0*1 @o#e3er. or e3en de3ised a better "olitical s&stem.$ a more demanding criterion. it #ill ebb an& da& no#. . not less. >ne interesting "iece of Russett8s research should hel" to "oint him a#a& from his doubts that democracies are more "eaceful in general. 7ut this is too "at. . in the name of glasnost and "erestroi5a. #ould not that ethos also ma5e them more "eaceful in general6 Russett im"lies that the ans#er is no. #ould be misleading. 7ut 2merica had no designs u"on Grenada. (0)1 (%his is a much larger "ro"ortion than are adFudged b& Freedom @ouse to be $free states. ha3e legitimate interests. %he attitude of li3e-and-let-li3e cannot be turned on and off li5e a s"igot. often ha3e aimed at conBuest or subFugation. 2 different 5ind of challenge to the thesis that democracies are more "eaceful has been "osed b& the "olitical scientists Ed#ard G.$ 7ut according to Freedom @ouse. >ne unsatisf&ing thing about @untington8s $#a3es$ is their une3enness. %o be sure. ma& not hold in the contem"orar& #orld. 7ut colonialism #as a legac& of Euro"e8s "redemocratic times. %he first lasted about 0I* &ears. $De #ould ha3e been able to a3oid man& . In contrast. No doubt man& of the instances of democracies at #ar that enter into the statistical calculations of researchers li5e Russett stem from the colonial era. from the !o3iet game board. @untington sa&s that the democrati=ation trend that began in the mid-0?(*s in Portugal. . the second about )*. %he structural-institutional model sometimes "ro3ides a significant relationshi" but often does not. ((1 %o render Fudgment about the relati3e "eacefulness of states or s&stems. Further. %he second #a3e. and the in3aders #ere greeted #ith Fo& b& the Grenadan citi=enr&. coming to an end in the inter#ar &ears #hen much of Euro"e regressed bac5 to fascist or militar& dictatorshi". Mansfield and 'ac5 !n&der.

the birth of the 9nited !tates of 2merica brought the total u" to one. "resent a statistic that seems to #eigh hea3il& against an& unidirectional inter"retation of democratic "rogress. Moreo3er.@untington8s t#o #a3es #as brief. If this is so. statesN in 0??* there #ere 0+I. %he difference #as that in 0?)) most "eo"les li3ed in colonies. %he danger of nuclear #ar #as radicall& reduced almost o3ernight #hen Russia abandoned Communism and turned to democrac&. Nonetheless. . #e ma& be in a 5ind of race bet#een the emergence or gro#th of nuclear arsenals and the ad3ent of democrati=ation. #as identical to the "ro"ortion in 0?)). #ith greatest momentum since 0?(.I_1. there #as "rogress all around.I "ercent of states #ere democratic in 0??* corres"onds #ith Freedom @ouse8s count of $democratic$ "olities (as o""osed to its smaller count of $free$ countries. most of the gro#th ha3ing occurred #ithin the t#entieth centur&. ho#e3er. democrac& has s"read at an accelerating "ace. In other #ords. the greatest cause for #orr& ma& rest #ith the Moslem Middle East #here nuclear arsenals do not &et e/ist but #here the "ros"ects for democrac& ma& be still more remote. Most countries8 democratic e3olution has included some fits and starts rather than a smooth "rogression. #hile the criteria for Fudging a state democratic 3ar&. !o it must be for the #orld as a #hole. 7ut the number of "eo"les had not gro#n a""reciabl&. %he "ro"ortion of states that #ere democratic in 0??* (. the statistic that . !o man& "eo"les #ere s#e"t u" in the democratic tide that there #as certain to be some bac5sliding. that #as also a significant gain. t#o thirds had become democratic b& 0??*. %he +. the $third #a3e$ has not abated.. In 0?)) there #ere onl& +. >nl& a minorit&. %hat this momentum has slac5ened some#hat since its "innacle in 0?X?.I "ercent. destined to be remembered as one of the most re3olutionar& &ears in all histor&. In 0((+. %his "rogress offers a source of ho"e for enduring nuclear "eace. !ince then. the number and "ro"ortion of democracies stands higher toda& than e3er before. In short. but this #as obscured b& as5ing #hat "ercentage of states #ere democratic. >f those. albeit a substantial one. %hat Freedom @ouse could count 0)* freel& elected go3ernments b& earl& )**0 (out of a total of 0?) inde"endent states1 bes"ea5s a 3ast transformation in human go3ernance #ithin the s"an of ))I &ears. the o3erall trend remains "o#erful and clear. and each ne# #a3e raised the number of democracies higher than before. Ces"ite the bac5sliding. #ere democratic in 0??*. and the& #ere not counted as states. %he additional 0*0 states counted in 0??* #ere mostl& former colonies. he sa&s. (0E1 7ut there are t#o ans#ers to this. 2s5ing the Buestion this #a& means that a "eo"le #ho #ere subFected to a domestic dictator counted as a non-democrac&. For other ominous corners of the #orld. In 0((I. the number of democracies #as =ero. a more demanding criterion1. but since 3irtuall& none of those #ere democratic in 0?)). Freedom @ouse no# sa&s that the "ro"ortion of democracies has gro#n to +). #hich #as a significant gain. 7ut b& this same count. states of that time #ere mostl& the ad3anced countries. #as ine3itable. @untington does. but a "eo"le #ho #ere subFected to a foreign dictator did not count at all.

but is largel& ineffecti3e #hen a determined regime or strong leader is in "lace. %hroughout most of the t#entieth centur&. .!.!."df.!. foreign "olic& to#ards 4atin 2merica.Democracy DA – Les Democracy )romotion )romoting 'emocratic regimes is a ma=or part of *2(2 policy to#ar' Latin America – only possi!le #it contin&e' egemonic infl&ence A6p&r&/ 1? (Cinorah. and Carol&n M. 2lthough force has been largel& discredited. im"ortant changes ha3e ta5en "lace in 9.#ichita. democrac& assistance. and maintaining liberal democrac&. Tnancial.E but has onl& become a "riorit& and a "ra/is for the 9nited !tates relati3el& recentl&.M "ublished on behalf of the Foreign Polic& Research Institute. including the Destern @emis"here. L%he 9nited !tates and the Promotion of Cemocrac& in 4atin 2mericaJ %hen.edu-de"ttools-de"ttoolsmemberfiles-carol&nsha#-)*0*_)*>rbis. %he "ro3ision of technical. "rinci"les. !ha#. #hich coincided #ith the rise in democrac& around the #orld. Peter 7urnell identiTes three different a""roaches to "romoting democrac&. assistant "rofessor in the Political !cience Ce"artment at Dichita !tate 9ni3ersit&. !"ring )*0*. associate "rofessor in the Political !cience Ce"artment at Dichita !tate 9ni3ersit&. 2""l&ing conditions and granting trade concessions can bring about some im"ro3ed democratic "ractices.!. %he "ur"ose of this article is to anal&=e the main 9. htt"J--#ebs. establishing. "olic& to#ard 4atin 2merica has become one of o3ertl& "romoting.!. all of #hich ha3e been em"lo&ed b& the 9nited !tates to some degreeJ conditionalities. Instead of a meager su""ort for democrac& in the regionHand sometimes Buestionable actions that actuall& undermined democrac&H the "ost-Cold Dar 9. %ashma1 !ince the end of the Cold Dar. and use of force. and "ossible scenarios that lie ahead. actions to "romote democrac& in the 4atin 2merican region0 since the 0??*s. the challenges it faces at the current time. material and s&mbolic su""ort for democrac& "rograms can ha3e a stronger im"act (although long term sustainabilit& is still "roblematic1. %his ne# "olic& has been im"lemented since the 0??*s through multilateral and bilateral actions of different 5inds. %he "romotion of democrac& has become an im"ortant "art of the foreign "olic& of ad3anced industrial democracies since the end of the Cold Dar. securit& and economic concerns freBuentl& too5 "recedence o3er liberal 9. the other t#o a""roaches ha3e been used in a 3ariet& of cases #ith 3ar&ing degrees of success. No# and %omorro#. "articularl& during the Cold Dar. 9. su""ort for anti-communist militar& dictators and regimes often #or5ed against democratic de3elo"ment in the %hird Dorld.) Fostering democrac& has been "art of the rhetoric of foreign "olic& to#ard the 4atin 2merican region since the da&s of Doodro# Dilson.

2 stud& on the democrac&-building effects of 9!2IC assistance from 0??* to )**E concludes that it has had a Lmoderate but consistent #orld#ide effectM but its authors em"hasi=e a number of Bualificator& obser3ations (Fin5el-P<re=4iUAn-!eligson )**(J . No. 2s the balance of "o#er in the region is redistributed. more com"licated and less successful. and "atient.M Peace Research Institute Fran5furt. this "roFect #ill be harder than it sounds *2(2 'emocracy promotion ine"ita!ly fails – itCs percei"e' as imperialist propagan'a )oppe/ 1? (2nni5a E. LDhither to. >bama6 9. !"reading democrac& around the #orld. 4ong 4atin 2merica8s master.eg . foreign "olic& bet#een real"oliti5 securit& interests and Dilsonian moral interests #as o3erM (Carothers 0???J . Gi3en ho# accustomed the 9nited !tates is to dominating the region. and the "remise that the democrac& to be "romoted needs a ^made in the 9nited !tates’ label in order to function on the other (Carothers )***a1. "utting democrac& into "ractice in non-democratic countries and rea"ing its benefits has been.ey to Latin American 'emocracy.?11 (Russell Crandall W associate "rofessor of International Politics at Ca3ison College -.Princi"al Cirector for the Destern @emis"here at the 9. Man& obser3ers ha3e assumed that less 9.3alues that the bloc sees as re"resenting a ca"itulation to the 9.de-o"us-3ollte/te-)*00-E)*0-"df-"rif?+.an a""roach that #ill allo# Dashington to remain acti3el& in3ol3ed in the region8s affairs #ithout acting as though it is tr&ing to maintain its legac& of hegemon& . the region #ill be more directl& res"onsible for its o#n successes and failures. the emerging literature discussing the global bac5lash against democrac& and democrac& "romotion has added to the im"ression that e/ternal democrati=ation is not "erforming #ell and is e3en fueling a countermo3ement (Carothers )**+N NEC )**+1. 2EPR must be restrained.3ifa"ol.controlled global s&stem2 Nonetheless.!.!. 4o#enthal adds that Lefforts to nurture it Zdemocrac&. not sur"risingl&. Ma&-'une.!. securit& and economic o""ortunities. %ashma1 Man& authors em"haticall& argue that the di3ide bet#een idealism and realism has finall& been crossed b& the foreign "olic& conce"t of democrac& "romotion (Carothers )***b. democrac& "romotion after the Cold Dar. %he area in #hich this 5ind of restraint.ills cre'i!ility of 'emocratic i'eals Cran'all . could undermine its "ast "rogress. and as its strategic "osture finall& matures. lest it see its influence diminish e3en further2 It must demonstrate an abilit& to Buietl& engage and lead #hen a""ro"riate -. Foreign 2ffairs. !e3eral studies on democrac& "romotion in 4atin 2merica ha3e sho#n that "ast attem"ts had little enduring success (4o#enthal 0??01. %hese are not Bualities for #hich 9.E+1.X Recentl&.Democracy DA – Democracy )romotion Ba' 9etrenc ment . a "roduct of its o#n ad3ancements. une/"ected alliances and enmities could arise. but the& are needed to "romote democrac& abroadM (4o#enthal 0??0J . he "oints out. no# that it a""eared more feasible than under the restrictions of the Cold Dar’s bi"olar confrontation.-I. %he t#o main misunderstandings #hich lead to failure . moreo3er. in3ol3ement #ould be an inherentl& "ositi3e de3elo"ment. 4atin 2merica8s emerging democratic consensus seems ine3itable. No one should underestimate the ca"acit& of the :ene=uela-led bloc of Buasi-authoritarian leftist go3ernments to sto" the regional trend to#ard greater o"enness and democrac& -. 2ccording to Carothers. res"ectful. @olsti )***1. %he Post2merican @emis"here !ubtitleJ Po#er and Politics in an 2utonomous 4atin 2merica.!.!. effects often fail to materiali=e because a lot of #ell-meaning aides confuse 2merican democrac& #ith liberal democrac& itself. sensiti3it& and "atience is "robabl& least "resent is the one in #hich democrac& has been "romoted through militar& . the 9nited !tates must ada"t to the ne# realities of this "ost-hegemonic era. Dhereas the theoretical debate has been "roducti3e in this regard.!. Dhether 2merican democrac& "romotion has been effecti3e or not is another field of debate in #hich the cautionar& ha3e obtained the u""er hand. ?+.!. seemed after all to offer a multitude of ^hard’ and ^soft’ benefitsJ it satisfied the assumed societal demands for an idealistic "olic& in line #ith the 2merican self-image #hile at the same time "acif&ing the #orld and thereb& enhancing 9. 4e/is1 !M Ironicall&. %he securit& logic of democrac& "romotion in "articular can onl& be a""reciated #hen one mo3es be&ond the realism-idealism dichotom& (Nau )***J 0)(1. his em"hasis1.. 4atin 2merica8s entr& into a $"ost-hegemonic$ era. but that ma& be too o"timistic. are the assum"tion that democrac& is a formal set of "rocedures #hich can be im"osed on an& 5ind of s&stem regardless of "rior democratic e/"erience and norms on the one hand. Ce"artment of Cefense in )**? and Cirector for 2ndean 2ffairs at the National !ecurit& Council in )*0*-00. sensiti3e. foreign "olic& is generall& noted. In Carothers’ #ordsJ L%he end of the cold #ar ga3e rise to the a""ealing notion that the traditional tension in 9."df. htt"J--edoc.*)1.

$ @istoricall&. has a""eared #ith Cha3e= in front of !imon 7oli3ar8s home and bashed 2merican $meddling. 9nder his ta/onom&. because the& #orr& that their "eo"le might not ta5e their side. Peru. des"ite his countr&8s bigger econom& andmilitar&. %he 9nited !tates hasn8t sho#n much deftness in tilting this fight bet#een the t#o lefts to#ard "ragmatists li5e 4ula. and his mistrust of some of the basic elements of the ca"italist s&stem add u" to disaster for go3ernment trans"arenc&. and constantl& lament that their "residents lac5 Cha3e=8s gum"tion. and 7ra=il--no# belie3e that democrac& is al#a&s the best form of go3ernment. on the other hand. the attem"t to "romote democrac& b& force is a characteristic the 7ush administration has become 5no#n W and strongl& critici=ed W for. @e died and #as buried in ColombiaN :ene=uela. held in the 2rgentine resort of Mar del Plata.$ Dhen Gran Colombia failed after ele3en &ears of struggle. re3eals #h& his a""eals to the leaders and citi=ens of 4atin 2merica ha3e been so successful. 2rgentina8s Kirchner seems the Funior "artner in his relationshi" #ith Cha3e=. onetime baseball-"la&er #annabe. 4atin 2merica is 3ulnerable. 7ut in recent decades. 2nd #hile the 7ush administration isn8t about to confront Cha3e= seriousl&. allo#ing Cha3e= to bait the 9nited !tates into 3erbal duelsHbattles that reinforce Cha3e=8s m&thological 3ersion of himself. and Cha3e= has "ro3ided a blue"rint not Fust for harnessing anti-2mericanism but . 7oli3ar-#orshi""ing. and addressed a cro#d of )I. Curing his final &ears. as a stud& co3ering the time "eriod from 0?.+ to 0??+ has sho#n. ne3er seems to utter one of 7oli3ar8s most "oignant finesJ $%hose #ho ser3e the re3olution "lo# the sea. !tate Ce"artment official told me. @is belief in strong leaders o3er strong institutions. 4e/is1 !M @o# far left #ill the region s#ing in reaction6 %eodoro Pet5off. and 4ula is more "o"ular than Cha3e= o3erall. %o the contrar&. Cha3e=. Dith 4atin 2merica in the midst of a left#ard s#ing. Cha3e=J a Castro-lo3ing. Cha3e=. Cha3e= claims that his fa3orite boo5 is Garcia MarBue=8s historical no3el about 7oli3ar8s last da&s. democrac&. has #ritten a boo5 called Cos I=Buierdas ($%#o 4efts$1. 4atin 2merican re3olution has "ro3ed to be Fust as futile as 7oli3ar imagined. there are una3oidable similarities bet#een the t#o--including some that Cha3e= might not care to ac5no#ledge. %his hardl& ma5es him the second coming of !imon 7oli3ar. $I brought m& sho3el. the 9nited !tates continues to cut bac5 on its aid "ac5ages. Dhich of the t#o lefts #ill e3entuall& #in out is unclear. Me/ico/ and Peru. 2ccording to a recent "oll. Morales has "romised to decriminali=e coca "roduction and redistribute land and "lans to re#rite 7oli3ia8s constitution this summer. #ho8s "robabl& more admired than an& "olitician at the official "roceedings.!. Cha3e= has the "otential to disru"t this "rogress and re3i3e 4atin 2merica8s old "olitical habits . %his tactic #or5s #ell because most 4atin 2merican leaders stillde"end on su""ort from their o#n radical "arties. $%he& li3e in fear of Cha3e= turningagainst them. Most residents of 4atin 2merica still belie3e that mar5et ca"italism is the onl& s&stem that can lead to de3elo"ment. #hich "a&s li" ser3ice to Castro but ado"ts a more "ragmatic attitude to#ard economics and remains committed to liberal democrac&. Ma& )**+. If this is true. the region loo5ed li5e it might finall& transcend this "attern of manic change. 4i5e Euro"ean social democrac&. it ultimatel& see5s to humani=e ca"italism. Mura3chi5 is con3inced that during the Cold Dar Lmilitar& occu"ation and co3ert action ha3e been highl& effecti3e means of s"reading democrac&M (Mura3chi5 0??0J )))-)E1. re"resents a more retrograde form of socialism. his "reference for "atronage o3er careful "olic&. ho# dangerous is he6M %he 2tlantic Monthl&. Cha3e= ma& soon ha3e close friends running Nicaragua. mid-s#ing.$ @e #as "la&ing a cle3er inside-outside gameJ at the same time thathe huddled #ith leaders li5e 4ula and Kirchner. E3en 2l3aro 9ribe. onl& about half of the region8s citi=ens --including minorities in 7oli3ia. Colombia. he dismissed the continent as ungo3ernable and descended into a bitter senescence. 2s #ill be sho#n in the follo#ing cha"ter. Ecuador. @e both "raised democrac& as $the most sacred source$ of "o#er and "roclaimed that $necessit& recogni=es no la#s. not destro& it--a "olitical "rogram that could hel" 4atin 2merica correct the e/cesses of its neoliberal e/"eriment #ithout entirel& undermining its core economic contributions. had made him an e/ile in his final &ears. he must 5no# that 7oli3ar ended his life distraught and de"ressed. @e s5i""ed a#a& from the a#5#ard grou" "hotos #ith his fello# heads of state. during #hich 7oli3ar himself came to embod& man& of the o""ressi3e Bualities he8d originall& cam"aigned against. #hose "o"ulace had e3entuall& turned on him.$ one 9. Cha3e=8s "rotege E3o Morales has alread& #on the 7oli3ian "residenc&. 7ecause of its "eculiar "olitical tem"erament. Anti-Americanism ca&se' !y egemony &n'ermines Latin American 'emocracy Foer $ (Fran5lin Foer W editor of the Ne# Re"ublic L%he talented Mr.means. des"ite his lo3e of "oetr&. 7ra=ilian President 4ui= Inacio $4ula$ da !il3a re"resents one of these lefts. one of the greatest soccer "la&ers of all time. most inter3entions b& liberal states ha3e failed to lead to successful democrati=ation in target countriesN onl& su""orti3e inter3entions b& 9nited Nations blue helmet troo"s seem to ha3e limited effecti3eness (Pic5ering-Pecen& )**+1. occasionall& sto""ing. on go3ernments that combine the #orst attributes of both. :ene=uela8s @ugo Cha3e= is "erha"s the #orld8s most o"enl& anti-2merican head of state. %his is im"ortant to note as there has been a shift to#ards militaril& im"osed democrac& since the 2merican in3asion of 2fghanistan in )**0. Dides"read ado"tion of liberal-democratic go3ernance and an embrace of mar5et ca"italism seemed to bring relati3e "ros"erit& and genuine stabilit& #ithin gras". it often gi3es the im"ression that such a "olic& is in the #or5s. %heir acti3ist bases still genuflect to#ard @a3ana. %he General in @is 4ab&rint. Dhere Cha3e= constantl& announces ne# "lans to distribute cash around the region. @e #ra""ed his arm around Ciego Maradona. the region has s#ung bac5 and forth on a dialectical ro"e bet#een socialism and authoritarianism. the editor of the Caracas "a"er %al Cual and one of Cha3e=8s "rime ad3ersaries. the "resident of Colombia and 2merica8s staunchest all& in !outh 2merica. in "art b& follo#ing Cha3e=8s o#n model of anti-2merican rhetoric and "o"ulist a""eals.$ Cha3e= intoned. %his d&namic has gi3en Cha3e= the run of the !outhern @emis"here. and de3elo"ment.$ Cha3e=8s "erformance last No3ember at the !ummit of the 2mericas. 7ut there8s no doubt that Cha3e=8s a""roach is #inning adherents. it has insisted on "ushing for#ard #ith the F%22--an agreement that has little chance in the current "olitical en3ironment. $I thin5 #e came here to bur& F%22 Zthe Free %rade 2rea of the 2mericasR. he used the media togo o3er their heads and s"ea5 directl& to their radical "olitical bases. Nonetheless.*** anti-globali=ation acti3ists gathered for a $counter-summit$ in a soccer stadium. Instead of ac5no#ledging the shortcomings of 4atin 2merica8s recent neoliberal e/"eriment. 7oli3ar de3ol3ed from radical democrat to dictator.

. "olic&1. Francis Fu5u&ama argued that democrac&8s e/tension #as leading to $the end of histor&. . . @itler #as emboldened b& his notorious contem"t for the flabbiness of the democracies. as distinguished an obser3er of international relations as George Kennan made a claim Buite contrar& to the first of these assertions. %o reduce the data to a form that is Buantitati3el& measurable. Democracy is . in dealing #ith all 5inds of states. he turned the !o3iet 9nion a#a& from its historic course. %hus. It #ill ne3er suffer nearl& as much as the "eo"le of the continent he dreams of liberating. during the Cold Dar. German& might ha3e beha3ed more cautiousl& in the summer of 0?0. In 0??*. North Korea almost surel& discounted the li5elihood of an 2merican militar& res"onse to its in3asion of the !outh after !ecretar& of !tate Cean 2cheson "ublicl& defined 2merica8s defense "erimeter to e/clude the Korean "eninsula (a declaration #hich merel& confirmed e/isting 9. he said. . !o in the Cold Dar.$ (01 Fu5u&ama8s "hrase #as intentionall& "ro3ocati3e.ey to sol"e for e@tinction %&ra"c i. #ere slo# to anger. #as also democratic #ithin the confines of its "eculiar confessional di3ision of "o#er. 7ut Mi5hail Gorbache3 made nonsense of their theories #hen. Cemocracies are not onl& slo# to anger but also Buic5 to com"romise. $De #ould ha3e been able to a3oid man& . . 4ater. more "eaceful than are authoritarian or other nondemocraticall& constituted states .!. . E3en so. In a famous article. 2merica treated 'a"an and that "art of German& that it occu"ied #ith e/traordinar& generosit&. In recent &ears a burgeoning literature has discussed the "eacefulness of democracies. but once aroused $a democrac& . 7ut the declaration #as "urel& formalJ no fighting ensued bet#een England and Finland. 7ut ultimatel&.$ %he so-called re3isionist historians argued that 2merica bore an eBual or larger share of res"onsibilit& for the conflict. 7ut the latter Buestion is all im"ortant. ((1 %o render Fudgment about the relati3e "eacefulness of states or s&stems. is that the& rarel& e/amine the Buestion of #ho started or caused a #ar. >nl& a fe# decades ago. . but that does not ma5e the 3ictim eBuall& bellicose. Russett sa&s that those #ho claim democracies are in general more "eaceful $#ould ha3e us belie3e that the 9nited !tates #as regularl& on the defensi3e. such as the negotiated settlements 2merica sought in Korea and :ietnam "ro3ed him #rong. but he also meant the $diminution of the li5elihood of large-scale conflict bet#een states. had it reali=ed that England #ould fight to 3indicate 7elgian neutralit& and to su""ort France. !urel& this is an e/ce"tion that "ro3es the rule.is the s"read of democrac&. England did accede to the "ressure of its !o3iet all& to declare #ar against Finland #hich #as allied #ith German&. None #ould dis"ute that Na"oleon #as res"onsible for the Na"oleonic #ars or @itler for Dorld Dar II in Euro"e. 4ebanon.$ he #rote. %he trouble #ith such studies. For e/am"le. but after a time their 3ictims sei=ed the offensi3e. such e/am"les abound.$ (E1 !ome of those #ho find enthusiasm for democrac& off-"utting ha3e challenged this "ro"osition. Indeed. 1 W Resident !cholar at 2merican Enter"rise Institute 'oshua.M 'ul 00. the 9nited !tates ma& ha3e initiated some s5irmishes (although in fact it rarel& did1. Dashington #as im"elled b& self- . . %he Cold Dar ended almost instantl&--as he no doubt 5ne# it #ould. and im"eding its international leadershi". 2nd to forgi3e. Cemocracies ma& often go to #ar against dictatorshi"s because the dictators see them as "re& or underestimate their resol3e. !addam @ussein8s decision to s#allo# Ku#ait #as "robabl& encouraged b& the inference he must ha3e ta5en from the statements and actions of 2merican officials that Dashington #ould offer no forceful resistance. ho#e3er. $%hat democracies are in general.for the slo# consolidation of "o#er.$ he sa&s. there #ere often moti3es other than aggrandi=ement. in the case of 4ebanon against Israel.X. difficulties if the democratic "rocess had de3elo"ed normall& in our countr&. %he "olitical scientist 7ruce Russett offers a different challenge to the notion that democracies are more "eaceful. 2long the #a&. and subseBuent boo5. Cemocracies.$ #hich means roughl&J #hat did the& ho"e to get out of it6 In the fe# cases in recent times in #hich #ars #ere initiated b& democracies. e3en tongue-in-chee5.org-s&llabi-mura3chi5. #as a reluctant "art& to the fight.$ 7ut that is not Buite rightJ the #ord $regularl&$ distorts the issue. as in the case of England against Finland. but their challenges ha3e onl& ser3ed as em"irical tests that ha3e confirmed its robustness. #e must as5 not onl& #ho started a #ar but #h&.is a much more contro3ersial "ro"osition than 8merel&8 that democracies are "eaceful in their dealings #ith each other. for e/am"le. fights in anger . . 2 3ictim can sometimes turn the tables on an aggressor. Israel #as an embr&onic democrac& and 4ebanon. it is easier to determine #hether a conflict has occurred bet#een t#o states than #hose fault it #as. (I1 Russett cites his o#n and other statistical e/"lorations #hich sho# that #hile democracies rarel& fight one another the& often fight against others.$ ()1 Kennan8s 3ie# #as strongl& influenced b& the "olic& of $unconditional surrender$ "ursued in Dorld Dar II. 4ebanon did little fighting and soon sued for "eace. LCemocrac& and nuclear "eace. ho#e3er. %he strongest e/ce"tion I can thin5 of is the #ar bet#een the nascent state of Israel and the 2rabs in 0?. and one for #hich there is little s&stematic e3idence. Indeed the "ro"osition that democracies do not go to #ar #ith one another has been described b& one "olitical scientist as being $as close as an&thing #e ha3e to an em"irical la# in international relations. In "articular #e should consider #hat in Catholic 'ust Dar doctrine is called $right intention. rarel& on the offensi3e. he ma& succeed in baiting the 9nited !tates into a rhetorical fight that it can8t #in. Dithin the councils of the 2rab 4eague. 7uchanan ha3e both instanced democratic England8s declaration of #ar against democratic Finland during Dorld Dar II. the 9nited !tates #ill not be the biggest loser in the battle Cha3e= is #aging. . htt"J--###. but he #as "ointing to t#o do#n-to-earth historical obser3ationsJ that democracies are more "eaceful than other 5inds of go3ernment and that the #orld is gro#ing more democratic. but the struggle as a #hole #as dri3en one-sidedl&. %o be sure. %he !o3iet "olic& #as $class #arfare$N the 2merican "olic& #as $containment. Not#ithstanding the insistence on unconditional surrender.$ 7& this he meant the conclusion of man8s Buest for the right social order. one of the 2rab belligerents. . the academic Paul Gottfried and the columnist-turned-"olitician Patric5 '.htm %he greatest im"etus for #orld "eace -.n"ec-#eb. after much "rocrastination. it o""osed the #ar but #ent along #ith its larger confreres #hen the& o"ted to attac5.and "erforce of nuclear "eace -. to the bitter end. democracies nominall& #ent to #ar against democracies #hen the& #ere dragged into conflicts b& authoritarian allies. 7ut subseBuent e/"erience. #hen 2merica in3aded Grenada. in the name of glasnost and "erestroi5a. (. Neither "oint has gone unchallenged.1 In fact.

interest more than altruism, "rimaril& its concern for the #ell-being of 2merican nationals and its desire to remo3e a chi", ho#e3er tin&, from the !o3iet game board, 7ut 2merica had no designs u"on Grenada, and the in3aders #ere greeted #ith Fo& b& the Grenadan citi=enr&, 2fter organi=ing an election, 2merica "ulled out, In other cases, democracies ha3e turned to

#ar in the face of "ro3ocation, such as Israel8s in3asion of 4ebanon in 0?X) to root out an enem& s#orn to its destruction
or %ur5e&8s in3asion of C&"rus to rebuff a "o#er-grab b& Gree5 nationalists, In contrast, the #ars launched b& dictators, such as IraB8s in3asion of Ku#ait, North Korea8s of !outh Korea, the !o3iet 9nion8s of @ungar& and 2fghanistan, often ha3e aimed at conBuest or subFugation, %he big e/ce"tion to this rule is colonialism, %he Euro"ean "o#ers conBuered most of 2frica and 2sia, and continued to hold their "ri=es as Euro"e democrati=ed, No doubt man& of the instances of democracies at #ar that enter into the statistical calculations of researchers li5e Russett stem from the colonial era, 7ut colonialism #as a legac& of Euro"e8s "redemocratic times, and it #as abandoned after Dorld Dar II, !ince then, I 5no# of no case #here a democrac& has initiated #arfare #ithout significant "ro3ocation or for reasons of sheer aggrandi=ement, but there are se3eral cases #here dictators ha3e done so, >ne interesting "iece of Russett8s research should hel" to "oint him a#a& from his doubts that democracies are more "eaceful in general, @e aimed to e/"lain #h& democracies are more "eaceful to#ard each other, Immanuel Kant #as the first to obser3e, or rather to forecast, the "acific inclination of democracies, @e reasoned that $citi=ens , , , #ill ha3e a great hesitation in , , , , calling do#n on themsel3es all the miseries of #ar,$ (X1 7ut this 3alid insight is incom"lete, %here is a dee"er e/"lanation, Cemocrac&

is not Fust a mechanismN it entails a s"irit of com"romise and self-restraint, 2t bottom, democrac& is the #illingness to resol3e ci3il dis"utes #ithout recourse to 3iolence, Nations that embrace this ethos in the conduct of their domestic affairs are naturall& more "redis"osed to embrace it in their dealings #ith other nations, Russett aimed to e/"lain #h& democracies are more "eaceful
to#ard one another, %o do this, he constructed t#o models, >ne h&"othesi=ed that the cause la& in the mechanics of democratic decision-ma5ing (the $structural-institutional model$1, the other that it la& in the democratic ethos (the $cultural-normati3e model$1, @is statistical assessments led him to conclude thatJ $almost al#a&s the cultural-normati3e

model sho#s a consistent effect on conflict occurrence and #ar, %he structural-institutional model sometimes "ro3ides a significant relationshi" but often does not, $ (?1 If it is the ethos that ma5es
democratic states more "eaceful to#ard each other, #ould not that ethos also ma5e them more "eaceful in general6 Russett im"lies that the ans#er is no, because to his mind a critical element in the "eaceful beha3ior of democracies to#ard other democracies is their antici"ation of a conciliator& attitude b& their counter"art, 7ut this is too "at, %he attitude of li3e-and-let-li3e cannot be turned on and off li5e a s"igot, %he citi=ens and officials of democracies recogni=e that other states, ho#e3er go3erned, ha3e legitimate interests, and the& are dis"osed to tr& to accommodate those interests e/ce"t #hen the other "art&8s beha3ior seems threatening or outrageous, 2 different 5ind of challenge to the thesis that democracies are more "eaceful has been "osed b& the "olitical scientists Ed#ard G, Mansfield and 'ac5 !n&der, %he& claim statistical su""ort for the "ro"osition that #hile full& fledged democracies ma& be "acific, 2in thZeR transitional "hase of democrati=ation, countries become more aggressi3e and #ar-"rone, not less,$ (0*1 @o#e3er, li5e others, the& measure a state8s li5elihood of becoming in3ol3ed in a #ar but do not re"ort attem"ting to determine the cause or fault, Moreo3er, the& ac5no#ledge that their research re3ealed not onl& an increased li5elihood for a state to become in3ol3ed in a #ar #hen it #as gro#ing more democratic, but an almost eBual increase for states gro#ing less democratic, %his raises the "ossibilit& that the effects the& #ere obser3ing #ere caused sim"l& b& "olitical change "er se, rather than b& democrati=ation, Finall&, the& im"licitl& ac5no#ledge that the relationshi" of democrati=ation and "eacefulness ma& change o3er historical "eriods, %here is no reason to su""ose that an& such relationshi" is go3erned b& an immutable la#, !ince their em"irical base reaches bac5 to 0X00, an& effect the& re"ort, e3en if accuratel& inter"reted, ma& not hold in the contem"orar& #orld, %he& note that $in ZsomeR recent cases, in contrast to some of our historical results, the rule seems to beJ go full& democratic, or don8t go at all,$ 7ut according to Freedom @ouse, some +),I "ercent of e/tant go3ernments #ere chosen in legitimate elections, (0)1 (%his is a much larger "ro"ortion than are adFudged b& Freedom @ouse to be $free states,$ a more demanding criterion, and it includes man& #ea5l& democratic states,1 >f the remaining E(,I "ercent, a large number are e/"eriencing some degree of democrati=ation or hea3& "ressure in that direction, !o the choice $don8t go at all$ (001 is rarel& realistic in the contem"orar& #orld, %hese statistics also contain the ans#er to those #ho doubt the second "ro"osition behind Fu5u&ama8s forecast, namel&, that the #orld is gro#ing more democratic, !5e"tics ha3e dra#n u"on !amuel @untington8s fine boo5, %he %hird Da3eJ Cemocrati=ation in the 4ate %#entieth Centur&, @untington sa&s that the democrati=ation trend that began in the mid-0?(*s in Portugal, Greece and !"ain is the third such e"isode, %he first $#a3e$ of democrati=ation began #ith the 2merican re3olution and lasted through the aftermath of Dorld Dar I, coming to an end in the inter#ar &ears #hen much of Euro"e regressed bac5 to fascist or militar& dictatorshi", %he second #a3e, in this telling, follo#ed Dorld Dar II #hen #holesale decoloni=ation ga3e rise to a raft of ne# democracies, Most of these, notabl& in 2frica, colla"sed into dictatorshi" b& the 0?+*s, bringing the second #a3e to its end, %hose #ho follo# @untington8s argument ma& ta5e the failure of democrac& in se3eral of the former !o3iet re"ublics and some other instances of bac5sliding since 0?X? to signal the end of the third #a3e, !uch an im"ression, ho#e3er, #ould be misleading, >ne unsatisf&ing thing about @untington8s $#a3es$ is their une3enness, %he first lasted about 0I* &ears, the second about )*, @o# long should #e e/"ect the third to endure6 If it is li5e the second, it #ill ebb an& da& no#, but if it is li5e the first, it #ill run until the around the &ear )0)I, 2nd b& then--#ho 5no#s6-"erha"s man5ind #ill ha3e incinerated itself, mo3ed to another "lanet, or e3en de3ised a better "olitical s&stem, Further, @untington8s meta"hor im"lies a lac5 of o3erall "rogress or direction, Da3es rise and fall, 7ut each of the re3erses that follo#ed @untington8s t#o #a3es #as brief, and each ne# #a3e raised the number of democracies higher than before, @untington does, ho#e3er, "resent a statistic that seems to #eigh hea3il& against an& unidirectional inter"retation of democratic "rogress, %he "ro"ortion of states that #ere democratic in 0??* (.I_1, he sa&s, #as identical to the "ro"ortion in 0?)), (0E1 7ut there are t#o ans#ers to this, In 0?)) there #ere onl& +. statesN in 0??* there #ere 0+I, 7ut the number of "eo"les had not gro#n a""reciabl&, %he difference #as that in 0?)) most "eo"les li3ed in colonies, and the& #ere not counted as states, %he +. states of that time #ere mostl& the ad3anced countries, >f those, t#o thirds had become democratic b& 0??*, #hich #as a significant gain, %he additional 0*0 states counted in 0??* #ere mostl& former colonies, >nl& a minorit&, albeit a substantial one, #ere democratic in 0??*, but since 3irtuall& none of those #ere democratic in 0?)), that #as also a significant gain, In short, there #as "rogress all around, but this #as obscured b& as5ing #hat "ercentage of states #ere democratic, 2s5ing the Buestion this #a& means that a "eo"le #ho #ere subFected to a domestic dictator counted as a non-democrac&, but a "eo"le #ho #ere subFected to a foreign dictator did not count at all,

Moreo3er, #hile the criteria for Fudging a state democratic 3ar&, the statistic that .I "ercent of states #ere democratic in 0??* corres"onds #ith Freedom @ouse8s count of $democratic$ "olities (as o""osed to its smaller count of $free$ countries, a more demanding criterion1, 7ut b& this same count, Freedom @ouse no# sa&s that the "ro"ortion of democracies has gro#n to +),I "ercent, In other #ords, the $third #a3e$ has not abated, %hat Freedom @ouse could count 0)* freel& elected go3ernments b& earl& )**0 (out of a total of 0?) inde"endent states1 bes"ea5s a 3ast transformation in human go3ernance #ithin the s"an of ))I &ears, In 0((I, the number of democracies #as =ero, In 0((+, the birth of the 9nited !tates of 2merica brought the total u" to one, !ince then, democrac& has s"read at an accelerating "ace, most of the gro#th ha3ing occurred #ithin the t#entieth centur&, #ith greatest momentum since 0?(., %hat this momentum has slac5ened some#hat since its "innacle in 0?X?, destined to be remembered as one of the most re3olutionar& &ears in all histor&, #as ine3itable, !o man& "eo"les #ere s#e"t u" in the democratic tide that there #as certain to be some bac5sliding, Most countries8 democratic e3olution has included some fits and starts rather than a smooth "rogression, !o it must be for the #orld as a #hole, Nonetheless, the o3erall trend remains "o#erful and clear, Ces"ite the bac5sliding, the number and "ro"ortion of democracies stands higher toda& than e3er before, %his "rogress offers a source of ho"e for enduring nuclear "eace, %he danger of nuclear #ar #as radicall& reduced almost o3ernight #hen Russia abandoned Communism and turned to democrac&, For other ominous corners of the #orld, #e ma& be in a 5ind of race bet#een the emergence or gro#th of nuclear arsenals and the ad3ent of democrati=ation, If this is so, the greatest cause for #orr& ma& rest #ith the Moslem Middle East #here nuclear arsenals do not &et e/ist but #here the "ros"ects for democrac& ma& be still more remote,

Dollar Ba' DA – 1NC
LA is replacing t e 'ollar no#;*( engagement in Latin America 'estroys re"erses t at +essman/ 1, - Ph,C, Political !cience, 9ni3ersit& of Colorado, assistant "rofessor of International 2ffairs and associate director of the Center for the !tud& of Global Issues (Globis1 at the 9ni3ersit& of Georgia (7roc5 F,, L!&stem !tructure and !tate !trateg&J 2dding @edging to the Menu,M Ma& ))nd, )*0), %a&lor and Francis >nline1--@24
7ra=il’s a""roach to mediation is e"itomi=ed b& its abilit& to "rioriti=e the long-term goal of integration o3er short-term "olic& 3ictories, For e/am"le, 7rasilia has continuall& refrained from "unishing 2rgentina for trade 3iolations in #a5e of its )**0 economic crisis and has also maintainedHdes"ite the increasingl& Farring rhetoric from @ugo Cha3e=Hrather #arm relations #ith :ene=uela, Perha"s the clearest e/am"le of %&"e 7 strategic hedging is found in 7ra=il’s efforts to

build regional economic organi=ations that can function inde"endentl& of the 9nited !tates , #estern Tnancial institutions, and the 9! dollar, In the summer of )*00, 9N2!9R Tnance and foreign affairs ministers held a series of meetings in order to de3elo" a "lan that #ould insulate the region from future economic crises in Euro"e and the 9nited !tates,(X In "articular, the 9N2!9R countries #ere see5ing a strateg&
that #ould successfull& reduce their reliance on 2merican-dominated Tnancial institutions li5e the International Monetar& Fund (IMF1 and Dorld 7an5, #hile also allo#ing the region to mo3e a#a& from the use of 9! dollars as the dominant currenc& for regional trade, 2s 2rgentina’s Ce"ut& Econom& minister Roberto Feletti e/"lained, LDhat #as a""ro3ed b& the meeting of ministers as an action "lan is to ad3ance in the design of a multilateral "a&ments s&stem #hich tends to use local currencies, %he

tendenc& is to graduall& re"lace the 9,!, dollar in regional trade,M(? 7ecause 7ra=il is a hea3& e/"orter and is also the target of more and more foreign in3estment, regional de"endence on the 9! dollar is threatening because the countr&’s gro#ing reser3es are subFect to signiTcant de"reciation as the dollar falls in relation to the 7ra=ilian real, Dhile the accumulation of 9! dollars #as at one "oint seen as a desirable conseBuence of a "ositi3e trade balance and gro#ing foreign in3estment, the erosion of the dollar has led 7ra=ilian leaders to "ush for the use of local currencies in regional trade and in3estment, X* 7ra=ilian leaders ha3e also sought to establish a 4atin 2merican Reser3es Fund Council (F42R1 , %he F42R #ould su"er3ise a regional reser3e ban5 (7anco del !ur1 that #ould come to the aid of states that #ere e/"eriencing balance of "a&ments "roblems,X0 %he F42R #ould ser3e as a regional eBui3alent of the IMF and #ould reduce regional de"endence on that 2merican-led institution, 4i5e the 2sian Monetar& Fund that emerged in the #a5e of the Tnancial crisis of 0??( and 0??X, a 7anco del !ur #ould not be seen as a tool for confronting #estern Tnancial institutions, but rather a #a& to reduce regional de"endence on them, For 7ra=il, the ban5 #ould be a stabili=ing force in the regionN countries #ith the highest "otential for balance of "a&ments "roblemsH:ene=uela, 7oli3ia, and EcuadorHare also those that #ould ha3e the hardest time obtaining conditional loans from the IMF, X) 7ra=il’s militar&, di"lomatic, and economic a""roaches to regional leadershi" in !outh 2merica are designed to re"lace "ublic goods that ha3ehistoricall& been "ro3ided b& the 9nited !tates , *( 'ollar ca&ses c&rrency #ars;goes glo!al 9at !one/ 14 - the Financial %imes’ 4atin 2merican editor, #or5ed as an economist and a Fournalist at the Dorld 7an5, graduate of >/ford and Columbia 9ni3ersities ('ohn Paul, Februar& 0)th, )*0E, LCurrenc& fears s"read in 4atin 2merica,M Financial %imes, htt"J--###,ft,com-intl-cms-s-*-c(+Iec0a-()0b-00e)-X?fb**0..feab.?a,htmlka/==)G0('dF%G1--@24 4atin 2merica is going 7ra=ilian , Pre3iousl&, it #as onl& 7ra=il, the region’s biggest econom&, that com"lained about the com"etiti3e de3aluations generated b& mone&-"rinting in the #est, the so-called currenc& #ars, No#, ho#e3er, as 'a"an Foins the rush to "rint mone& and de3alue, the more orthodo/ and free-trading 4atin economies W in3estor darlings such as Me/ico, Chile, Colombia and Peru W also fear catching a bullet, %he
issue ma& #ell dominate this #ee5’s G)* meeting in Mosco#, gi3en that 2sian e/"orters such as !outh Korea are also #orried about currenc& a""reciation, LNot all 4atin 2merican "olic& ma5ers ha3e used the term currenc& #ar,M sa&s 4uis >ganes, head of 4atin

2merica research at 'PMorgan, 7ut the& Lare e/"ressing increasing concern and reacting to itM, 4ast #ee5,

Feli"e 4arra n, Chile’s finance minister, lamented that com"etiti3e

de3aluations of global currencies from Buantitati3e easing, or gE, could lead Lto ne# forms of trade "rotectionism M, 2gust n Carstens, the head of
Me/ico’s central ban5, #arned the follo#ing da& that massi3e cross-border ca"ital flo#s could lead to a L"erfect stormM of economic "roblems, @e added that Lconcerns of asset-"rice bubbles fed b& credit booms are starting to rea""earM, !&m"tomatic of this #as a t#eet last %uesda& b& 7ill Gross, the co-chief in3estment officer of Pimco, the bond fund, #hich "raised the Me/ican "eso as a Lgreat currenc&M and that led an almost 0 "ercentage "oint Fum" in the currenc&, !uch concerns are the o""osite of those in more mismanaged 4atin economies, such as :ene=uela, #hich de3alued on Frida&, or 2rgentina, both of #hich are suffering ca"ital outflo#s, Dhat ma5es this round of currenc& #ar com"laints different from #hen 7ra=il coined the "hrase in )*0*, is that after &ears of orthodo/ "olic& ma5ing the Me/ican, Colombian, Peru3ian and Chilean economies, #hich ha3e a combined economic out"ut of [),0tn, enFo& lo#er inflation and interest rates, and smaller budget deficits, 2nd &et the& are still suffering, L%he term ^currenc& #ars’ is often used as a sca"egoat b& "olic& ma5ers,M sa&s Michael @enderson, 4atin 2merica economist at Ca"ital Economics, a consultanc&, L%he fact that "eo"le such as Me/ico’s Carstens are "ic5ing u" on the idea lends it more credence,M Certainl&, the e3idence seems clear, %he Me/ican, Chilean, Colombian and Peru3ian currencies all

a""reciated b& about 0* "er cent against the dollar last &ear , %he a3erage of their inflation-adFusted, trade #eighted currencies is no# also X "er cent abo3e the 0*-&ear a3erage, %his has "rom"ted ho#ls of "rotest from local e/"orters, and increased "ressure on "oliticians to Ldo somethingM to hel", LDe firml& criticise
the monetar& "olicies of de3elo"ed economies #hich are generating e/cessi3e international liBuidit& and o3er3aluing currencies such as ours,M Mauricio CArdenas, Colombia’s finance minister, told the Financial %imes,

the #orld is slo#l& but surel& mo3ing a#a& from the 9! dollar . it #ill ha3e a dramatic im"act on the #orld econom& because the dollar is the standard unit of currenc& for commodit& mar5ets. !il3er has been used for thousands of &ears as a monetar& s&stem for the economies of "ast ci3ili=ations. central !an. @e ser3es on the board of Gale 9ni3ersit&.ills t e economy – 'estr&ction of mi''le class an' political insta!ility Ma.Dollar Ba' DA – Inflation Impact LA is mo"ing a#ay from t e 'ollar.co&ps in Latin America/ t e s&spension of 'emocracy in In'ia/ t e o"ert ro# of t e s a in Iran. 7ut then in 0?(?.aria 0HEditor of Ne#s#ee5. Dhat can be done around the #orld to a3oid such a scenario #hen the colla"se of the dollar is ine3itable6 @istor& "ro3es that sil3er can become an alternati3e currenc& that can re"lace the dollar. %he !ecrets of !tabilit&.globalresearch.fareed=a5aria. Mo3ing out of the CollarJ %he Roman Cenarius.!. Nations #ith large e/ternal debts #ill not be able to trade sufficientl& to earn the needed income to ser3ice their debts. %he %rilateral Commission. %he Federal Reser3e’s action #ill cause food. >3er t#o decades.. Iran and India decided to trade gold for oil due to 9! sanctions on Iran because of its nuclear "rogram. and !ha5es"eare and Com"an&. #ith dee" social and "olitical conseBuences. Inflation .!. the 2merican dollar and the Return of !il3er6M Global Research.com-articles-articles. htt"J--###. %hirt&-fi3e &ears ago. 2t least &ou ha3e a choice in #hich "recious metals &ou can in3est in. #hich #ill hurt the a3erage famil&.'ollar collapses t e glo!al economy an' ca&ses massi"e inflation G&6man/ 14 . @o#e3er.html1 %he second force for stabilit& is the 3ictor&Hafter a decades-long struggleHo3er the cancer of inflation. @ar3ard. It #ill cause "anic on the #orld mar5ets and ci3il unrest among the "eo"le #ho reali=e that the 9! dollars the& de"end on #ould no longer be able to bu& their basic necessities. but the realit& is that it can lead the #orld into an economic de"ression. economic. htt"J--###. %he cost of li3ing among "eo"le #ho deal #ith the 9! dollar on a dail& basis es"eciall& b& those #ho li3e #ithin the 9nited !tates #ill see a ra"id decline in the standards of li3ing due to Federal Reser3e 7an5’s debasement of the dollar b& "rinting unlimited amounts of mone& through guantitati3e easing (gE1. media and historical s"heres.ca-in3esting-in-sil3er#ea5ness-of-the-dollar-the-roman-denarius-the-american-dollar-and-the-return-ofsil3er-IE)0+0*1--@24 If the 9! dollar colla"ses. yperinflation le' to t e 'estr&ction of t e mi''le class/ # ic #as t e !ac.yperinflationF Mim!a!#e2 Lo# inflation allo#s people/ !&sinesses/ an' go"ernments to plan for t e f&t&re/ a . the tide began to turn #hen Paul :olc5er too5 o3er the 9. although man& countries are "urchasing large amounts of gold such as Russia and China #ith other countries in 4atin 2merica and 2sia follo#ing in the same footste"s. @o#e3er .researcher and #riter #ith a focus on "olitical. %he 9. %he Council on Foreign Relations. sil3er #ill still be a good o"tion. much of the #orld #as "lagued b& high inflation. 0) Cecember )**?. 'a"an and China announced that the& #ill also trade in their o#n currencies des"ite di"lomatic "roblems in3ol3ing the Ciao&u Islands in the East China !ea.gro&n' con'ition for many of t e political 'ramas of t e era. 72 from Gale. Februar& *. PhC in "ol sci. LIn3esting in !il3er. Federal Reser3e and #aged #ar against inflation. the result #ill be inflation. >ne thing is certain.s manage' to 'ecisi"ely !eat 'o#n t e !east2 At t is point/ only one co&ntry in t e #orl' s&ffers from . countries such as Russia and China are ta5ing necessar& ste"s to a3oid an economic tsunami caused b& a colla"se of the 9! dollar b& announcing in )*0* that the& #ill use their o#n currencies #hich is the Russian Ruble and the Chinese Guan for bilateral trade. %he& #ill slide into ban5ru"tc&. clothing and energ& "rices to soar. )*0E. !e3ere inflation can !e far more 'isr&pti"e t an a recession/ !eca&se # ile recessions ro! yo& of !etter =o!s an' #ages t at yo& mig t a"e a' in t e f&t&re/ inflation ro!s yo& of # at yo& a"e no# !y 'estroying yo&r sa"ings2 In man& countries in the 0?(*s. 2s the 9! Federal Reser3e 7an5 continues to "rint dollars. Named $one of the )0 most im"ortant "eo"le of the )0st Centur&$ (Fareed.ey precon'ition for sta!ility2 E@tinction . es"eciall& gold and oil. graduate of @unter College in Ne# Gor5 Cit& (%imoth& 2le/ander. dollar is still the #orld’s reser3e currenc&.

X-)E E3en #ith stoc5 mar5ets tottering around the #orld. millions of "eo"le lost their Fobs. Dages "lummeted. undermined the abilit& of moderates to o""ose 'ose"h !talin8s "o#er in Russia. It8s the financial mar5ets. e3en if that meant #ar #ith the 9nited !tates and 7ritain. It #as bloodJ Dorld Dar II.*0(51. then the mar5et headed south big time. the Co# 'ones industrial a3erage had lost ?*_ of its 3alue. %hat8s the thing about de"ressions. %he Ce"ression brought 2dolf @itler to "o#er in German&. staged a rall&. stoc5s began to colla"se in >ctober. %he& aren8t Fust bad for &our . 9.%ea'/ 08 W !enior Fello# Council on Foreign Relations 42 %imes.!. 2t the bottom. and the rules change. Forget suicide car bombers and 2fghan fanatics. %here #ere similar horror stories #orld#ide. We stop playing H+ e )rice is 9ig tH an' start &p a ne# ro&n' of H(a"ing )ri"ate 9yan2H . 4et the #orld econom& crash far enough. to be e/act. %he 9nited !tates and the #orld are facing #hat could gro# into the greatest threat to #orld "eace in +* &ears. thousands of ban5s and bro5erages #ent ban5ru"t. and con3inced the 'a"anese militar& that the countr& had no choice but to build an 2sian em"ire. not the terrorist training cam"s that "ose the biggest immediate threat to #orld "eace . %oo bad. @o# can this be6 %hin5 about the mother of all global meltdo#nsJ the Great Ce"ression that started in 0?)?. 7ut the biggest im"act of the Ce"ression on the 9nited !tates--and on #orld histor&--#asn8t mone&. the "resident and the Congress seem determined to s"end the ne/t si/ months arguing about dress stains.

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since armies are e/"ensi3e and the goods that can be looted are no longer of considerable 3alue. nations #ere constrained b& o""ortunit&. Peru. %here are reasons that do not immediatel& Fum" to the surface. >"timists .cato-unbound. but are not inclined to do so. Colombia. %he danger is that established "o#ers ma& be slo# to accommodate or gi3e #a& to the demands of rising "o#ers from 2sia and else#here."df1 !M ***NoteF LAC is Latin American an' Cari!!ean Co&ntries I ha3e been as5ing m&self #h& the trade route to greater 42C unit& of "ur"ose is not getting much traction. but for the most "art the ca"able countries of the #orld ha3e been in consensus.Emeritus Dilliam E. %he rising nations of 2sia in "articular ha3e not been eBual beneficiaries in the #orld "olitical s&stem. Darfare in the modern #orld has thus become an acti3it& in3ol3ing #ea5 (usuall& neighboring1 nations. militaril& ca"able countries. 7ra=il is not sure it #ants to share its hegemonic status in !outh 2merica #ith the 9nited !tatesHthe biggest hegemon of them allHshould there be a com"rehensi3e F%22. %he Buestion for the future is #hether the benefits of tangible resources through mar5ets are sufficient to com"ensate the rising "o#ers for their lac5 of influence in the "olic& s"here. and "articularl& to fight #ith other "o#erful states . Number . Coo"erati3e "ro"osals in trade matters #ould not com"romise the so3ereignties of the 42C countries. mar5et .pro"es s&staina!ility Gart6. %hese ha3e been substantiall& resol3ed. %hese countries could fight each other.2. Cecoloni=ation. as e/em"lified b& the disunit& discussed earlierN "olitical com"etition among them. #ea5er de3elo"ing nations that continue to e/ercise force in traditional #a&s are inca"able of "roFecting "o#er against the de3elo"ed #orld. and I thin5 the best. -csis. and it led to Chile’s free trade agreement #ith the 9nited !tates. In an& e3ent. as Francis Fu5u&ama has "ointed out. for e/am"le. as Mac5 has "ointed out. Most nations did not fight most others because the& could not "h&sicall& do so. Po#erful nations.e 11 Eri5 Gart=5e is an associate Professor of "olitical science at the 9ni3ersit& of California. %his #as Chile’s "osition. ca"able nations "refer to bu& rather than ta5e. and feasible hemis"heric ambitions. from 9C!F $!EC9RI%G IN 2N IN!EC9RE D>R4C$ ###. the situation seems to be more of each countr& for itself rather than unit& of "ur"ose in the achie3ement of #hat could be a most im"ortant agreement for most 42C countries +ra'e eliminates t e only rational incenti"es for #ar. di3ested Euro"ean "o#ers of territories that #ere increasingl& e/"ensi3e to administer and #hich contained tangible assets of limited 3alue . >f com"arable im"ortance is the mo3e to substantial consensus among "o#erful nations about ho# international affairs should be conducted. Dhile such coo"eration could lead to greater "olitical coo"eration. trade "ro#ess. Dhile this 3ersion of e3ents e/"lains the "artial "eace besto#ed on the de3elo"ed #orld. Modern L=ones of "eaceM are dominated b& "o#erful. %he easiest. one #ould thin5 that 42C countries #ould do #hate3er the& could to assure im"ro3ed access to the 9. #ith the e/ce"tion of uncon3entional methods. as bet#een Me/ico and 7ra=ilN and the dis"arities among the 42C countries in si=e.org-)*00-*)-*?-eri5-gart=5e-securit&-in-aninsecure-#orld2lmost as informati3e as the decline in #arfare has been #here this decline is occurring. the Cominican Re"ublic. it also "oses challenges in terms of the future. this is e/actl& the e/"lanation that Norman 2ngell famousl& su""lied before the Dorld Dars. !an Ciego PhC from Io#a and 7. %hese nations ha3e benefited from economic integration. Get. !imon Chair in Political Econom& at the Center for !trateg& and International !tudies $%he Cost of Ci3isions Dithin 4atin 2merica$ in Issues in International Political Econom& 2ugust )**E. in contrast. #hile the disgruntled de3elo"ing #orld is inca"able of acting on res"ecti3e nations’ dissatisfaction. and this has "ro3ed sufficient in the "ast to "acif& them. such as terrorism. toda& the e3idence is abundant that the most "ros"erous. It is the "osition of Central 2merica. %here are se3eral e/"lanations. #hile the benefits of acting in concert are large (due to economic interde"endence in "articular1 means that nations "refer to deliberate rather than fight. this is not a necessar& or foreordained outcome. and others. %raditionall&. sa&. ha3ing said all this. #ith inter3ention b& "o#erful (geogra"hicall& distant1 states in a "olicing ca"acit&. %he fact that remaining differences are moderate. the riddle of "eace boils do#n to #h& ca"able nations are not fighting each other. tended to fight more often.Free +ra'e DA – 1NC *( egemony in Latin America 'e"astates free tra'e Weintra&! 4 (!idne& Deintraub -.org-files-media-csis-"ubs-issues)**E*X. e/"lanation has to do #ith an absence of moti3e. !o. %he #orld is thus di3ided bet#een those #ho could use force but "refer not to (at least not against each other1 and those #ho #ould be #illing to fight but lac5 the material means to fight far from home.!. %here is considerable anti2mericanism in 4atin 2merica at the moment and this ma& be im"eding the ardor for free trade in some 42C countries . Get. Cifferences remain. leading to di3isions o3er the intangible domain of "olic& and "olitics. 2t the same time. %he great ri3alries of the t#entieth centur& #ere ideological rather than territorial.. Modern states find little incenti3e to bic5er o3er tangible "ro"ert&. Ironicall&. %here are the ob3ious reasonsJ nationalistic desires to "rotect domestic interestsN distrust among the countries.

#hile the fruits of conflict. that #ar becomes a durable anachronism. research on robotic #arfare "romises to lo#er the cost of conBuest. %hese forces are not guaranteed to "re3ail indefinitel&. De must all ho"e that the consolidating forces of "ros"erit& "re3ail. or e3en that fundamental differences e/ist among the interests of first. de3elo"ed nations is to "ro3e durable. their domestic situations are e3ol3ing in a #a& that ma5es their interests more similar to the Dest. then #arfare o3er ideolog& or "olic& can also be resurrected. Dhether this #ill ha""en de"ends on the rate of change in interests and ca"abilities.and second-#a3e "o#ers that cannot be bridged b& the "resence of mar5et mechanisms or McConald’s restaurants. Pessimists argue instead that ca"abilities among the rising "o#ers are gro#ing faster than their affinit& for #estern 3alues. that #hat ended #ar in Euro"e can be e/"orted globall&. both in terms of tangible and intangible s"oils ha3e declined in 3alue. De must ho"e that the o"timistic 3ie# is correct. . and a mar5et orientation all hel" to dra# the rising "o#ers in as fello# tra3elers in an e/"anding =one of "eace among the de3elo"ed nations. it must be because #arfare "ro3es futile as nations transition to "ros"erit&. 2lread&. fundamental differences among ca"able communities arise. Consumerism. If in addition. a difficult thing to Fudge. If the "eace obser3ed among #estern. Pros"erit& has made #ar e/"ensi3e.argue that at the same time that these nations are rising in "o#er. democrac&.

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follo#ing the ideological 3isions the& incor"orated from the French theorists of counterinsurgencies de3elo"ed in the 2lgerian #ar and reinforced b& the strong anti-communist 3isions taught in the !chool of the 2mericas and other 9! training centers of anti-guerrilla #arfare attended b& 4atin 2merican officers. Contreras tra3eled to the 4I! to as5 for training. If necessar&. es"eciall& in times of crisis. and their "rofessional training. Parado/icall& enough. 2ccording to this logic. Eliminating the enem& #as the onl& o"tion since these indi3iduals #ere considered to be be&ond redem"tion due to their irre"arable ideological and fla#ed "olitical 3ie#s (a conce"t denoted in !"anish as Irrecu"erabilidad1. belief in doctrines of national securit&. indi3idual rights. safeguarding the nation. e3en ta5ing into account the training and su""ort of the 9!. national unit& #as sought and inter"reted in terms of a tradition or Lsoul. #ere forcefull& demobili=ed under militar& rule. LcleansedM of hostile elementsN and selfHcensorshi" cr&stalli=ed as the result of a highl& re"ressi3e situation. 2rgentina (L!tate :iolence and Genocide in 4atin 2mericaJ %he Cold Dar Gears. societ& could manage to retail its basic "arameters of national 3alues and traditions. should be subordinate to national aims and goals #hene3er necessar&. and subseBuentl& the Chileans benefited from 9! militar& ad3isors in counterintelligence.M %he militar& leaders thought the& #ere most Bualified to channel the LtrueM national s"irit through the state machiner&. Militar& leadershi" considered itself the most Bualified and "erha"s the onl& ca"able institutional actor for achie3ing the defense and "romotion of national interests. 7oth "h&sicall& and ideologicall&. there #as coordination in the #ar against sub3ersion. Print1--@24 Get. 9nder the "olitical and institutional challenges "osed b& the generation dreaming of accom"lishing a !ocialist Re3olution. 7ecause of their functional role. or transferred for interrogation and later disa""eared. #ith the most com"lete secrec& and lac5 of accountabilit&. "osited a lin5 bet#een the conce"ts of nation and state. the militar& sa# themsel3es as guardians of the nation’s 3alues and traditions.M htt"sJ--catal&st. shared b& the militar& establishments of the 4atin 2merican countries in the frame#or5 of the Cold Dar. their formation. %he local idioms of organicism ga3e further credibilit& to the doctrines of national securit& that stressed the "rimac& of national #ellHbeing o3er indi3idual rights. the defense of "ri3ate "ro"ert& and initiati3e. #ith grou"s of armed radical leftist guerrillas using 3iolent means to bring about a re3olution. Chile’s state securit& agenc&. 7& e/terminating these Lcontaminated’ cells or organs. In man& cases. including the most basic human rights. >rlando 4etelier and his secretar& Ronni Moffitt. the basic 3alues of a nation are anchored organicall& #ithin Destern ci3ili=ation (inter"reted in terms of Christian 3alues1. %he organic conce"tion of the nation im"lied a binar& 3ie# of the #orld that resembled the categories of’ the Cold Dar. assassinating former Chilean Foreign Minister. the armed forces belie3ed the& had the right and obligation to redefine and organi=e their nations according to the guidelines of the doctrines of national securit&. albeit nuanced. Get. one should loo5 for a no less fundamental source of con3iction of the militar& commands in their shared. It ma& he claimed that. (@uttenbach1 Professor in the @istor& Ce"artment of the Cit& College of the Cit& 9ni3ersit& of Ne# Gor5. Dhile "re"aring such a mo3e. in the short term.Genoci'e DA – 1NC *( infl&ence in Latin America ca&ses genoci'e Marcia Espar6a. the armed forces #ould e/tir"ate the threat.M consisting of Lfree=ing certain historical facts or uni3ersali=ing "articular features that are defined outside the freel& e/"ressed collecti3e #ill. this state-centric 3ision that centrali=ed the role of the state in sha"ing the direction of societ& #as also shared b& the re3olutionar& 4eft. at least before its agents struc5 in Dashington. 1? . #hich #as launched b& then Colonel Manuel Contreras of the CIN2. H&tten!ac . CC. and (Feierstein1 Cirector of the Centre for Genocide !tudies at the National 9ni3ersit& of %res de Febrero. 2ccording to that doctrine.librar&. #hich in the I ?+*s and I ?(*s had e/"erienced "rocesses of massi3e "o"ular mobili=ation and increased (disordered and almost $anarchical$1 "artici"ation. an' Caniel Feierstein. o3erloo5ing the genocidal "olicies ado"ted. @enr& R. >"eration Condor #as designed to coordinate the e/change of intelligence and the launching of combined o"erations against "olitical acti3ists in e/ile. a 9! citi=en. man& of #hom #ere abducted. and the central role of the armed forces in connection to both. In 2rgentina. in the 3ie# of se3eral 4atin 2merican high officers.Fhu. be&ond these differences. #ith man& of their acti3ists Failed and assassinatedJ "rofessional and entre"reneurial associations #ere co-o"ted. Coctrines of national securit& %hese societies.M most significantl& s"earheaded b& >"eration Condor. this 3ision .edu-catalog-bibQEI*XIX(. %he National !ecurit& Coctrines. the I'! #as "assi3e and not aggressi3e enough in the flight against communism during the Cold Dar I #ould accordingl& claim that. 2s Manuel 2ntonio Garret. !ecluded from the "ublic e&e. some to" 9! officials and agencies #elcomed the initiati3e of Chile and its "artners in >"eration Condor. assassinated.(Es"ar=a1 PhC in !ociolog& at the 9ni3ersit& at 2lban&. "olitical "arties #ere banned or their acti3ities fro=en b& decreeN educational s&stems #ere regimented and disci"lined after maFor militar& inter3entions in the uni3ersities and school "rograms #ere resha"ed according to the ne# ideological "arameters8 hea3& censorshi" #as im"osed u"on the media and cultural e/"ression #as $"urifiedM of an& leftist orientationsJ trade unions #ere attac5ed. and o""osition to communist and Mar/ist ideas. Policies of annihilation of the radical 4eft and its su""orters #ere carried out both domesticall& and be&ond the national borders.n indicated.

there #as no room for indecision or lac5 of full commitmentE) In such a binar& and evtreme definition of the situation. and that Carter meant onl& a tem"orar& shill in 9! "olic&.*** "ersons #ere abducted and later 3anished #ithout a trace. 0E3 the late l?a>s. Dashington’s efforts to isolate Chile achie3ed its goals in antagoni=ing (wencral Pinochet. %he 9! o"ened the door to 4atin 2merican alliances b& moderni=ing outdated militar& eBui"ment and offering courses on 9! #ea"onr&. torture. Chile has officiall& recogrn=ed a death toll of o3er E. Dith communist Cuba Fust to the south. 2fter a #hile. the "endulum shifted again to counterinsurgenc& su""ort #hen President Ronald Reagan came to office in 0?X0. and forced e/ile as #as t&"ical of 9rugua& and 7ra=il. ^ %he genocidal turn and 9! influence %he confrontation #ith communism and #ith the 3ernacular forms of radical socialism generated "olicies that condoned genocidal "ractices #hene3er the& could he Fustified in terms of sa3ing the national soul and !tructure of societ& 2s a result. General Pinochet "ro3ed to be ca"able of sideste""ing Carter’s human rights stance. as in the famous threat launched b& the then militar& go3ernor of the "ro3ince of 7uenos 2ires in 2rgentina during the first Funta regime. #hile 2rgentina su""orted the 9! on disarmament issues. in the belief that the& could o3ercome its critics. %hird. the actions of the militar& go3ernments #ere under scrutin& staffing in 0?(+ and became increasingl& so under the Caner administration Get. Gugosla3ia. 9! "ressure had its o#n limitationsJ as Dilliam !ater stresses. the Pinochet regime critici=ed Dashington for Lnot ta5ing the lead in a #orld crusade against communism.***HI*. In almost contradictor& terms. catering since 0?. %he Cubans claimed to understand the need for militar& inter3ention in 2rgentina and the !o3iets did not "ut "ressure on 2rgentina due to their o#n human rights record. as Reagan ad3ocated a Buiet di"lomac& to#ard Chile. the ne# administration en3isioned a !o3ietHCuban cam"aign aimed at generating a domino effect throughout Central 2merica and the Caribbean %he Reagan administration began combating the "ercei3ed threat b& de3elo"ing inten’en tionist "olicies. including the mission of miliH tar3 ad3isors training counterinsurgenc& forces in El !al3ador and Central 2merica hct3ecn 0?(X and I ?X). First. #ith thousands summaril& e/ecuted and ^disa""cared. at the 3er& same time that the 9! administration #as "raising the economic direction of the de facto go3ernment. Kissinger ga3e his su""ort for the goals and methods of the Ldirt& #ar.#as a guideline for eliminating the enemies of the NationN the terms used #ere organic in nature and "roFected a medical discourse that demanded the ^e/tir"ation of ill tissues’ from the national bod& %his hinted at the genocidal "ractices ado"ted to decimate a generation and its dreams of radical olitical change. ho#e3er. #hile the armed forces claimed to ha3e sa3ed their coun9ies from being destro&ed from #ithin. L 9nder Reagan. 4atin 2merican militaries became de"endent on re"lacing and "urchasing #ea"ons from the 9!. !econd.? to 4atin 2merican students. 2 series of miscalculations H the last of #hich #as the Mal3inas-Fal5 lands #ar H ser3ed to undemiine the ca"acit& of the 2rgentine regime to institu tionali=e itself on lines resembling the Chilean success stor3 It is. In 2rgentina E*. unclear #hether the end of militar& training "rograms in 2rgentina in 0?(( and of sales of militar& eBui"ment 0# the 9! had a serious im"act on human rights "olicies 2lthough the figures of 3anished indi3iduals declined 0# 0?(X. #hich claimed to be "romoting democrac& in Central 2merica. agrarian reform.tional relationshi"s #ith Cuba. In a binar& #orld such as the one en3isioned b& the militar&. man& of Carter’s actions #ere annulled. In Nicaragua the National Chiard #as res"onsible for some .’ >n the basis of the doctrines of national securit&. as indicated b’ #riter Ricardo Piglia. Eb<nco !aint-'eanJ LFirst #e 5ill the sub 3ersi3es then #e 5ill their collahorators then their s3m"athi=ers. then those #ho remain indifferent and finall& #e 5ill the timid. Moreo3er. educa tion. It is "recisel& from these doctrines that confrontation arose that made use of genocidal "ractices and a s&stematic technolog& of terror and re"ression aimed not onl& at "h&sical destruction but also at eradicating its memor& from the annals of the nation . %he !chool #as originall& established in the Panama Canal ]one b& the t'! in 0?. the enem& #as defined in ambiguous terms that could he elasticall& broadened to include not onl& acti3e su""orters hut e3en remote s&m"athi=ers or citi=ens a"athetic enough not to !u""ort the "olicies of the militar& go3ernments. it reinforced interna. %hese indi3iduals #ere denied the most basic needs and brutall& tortured. the to" commanders of the arnied forces thought their societ& 3as "enetrated b& a secluded enem& that aimed at destro&ing the moral 3alues of the nation. In this #a&. or !>2.M #ithout critici=mg its re"ressi3e methods.+. the "ressures of the Carter administration in the 0?(*s onl& marginall& im"acted the Funta’s genocidal "ractices. %he "rimar& focus of these "olicies #as the destabili=ation of the !andinista go3ernment in Nicaragua and the consolidation of anti-communist "olitical ne# constitution de3ised b& Pinochet’s legal ad3isors. the militar& Funta mo3ed to "roFect a false international image of res"ect l’or human rights in 2rgentina. 3et under the constitutional terms of the I ?a* charter that secured authoritarian encla3es and the maintenance of the economic model in the democratic "eriod starting in 0??*. #hich created a series of authoritarian mechanisms that ensured the irre3ersibilit& of some of the main institutional and structural transformations established under the rnihtar3 regime Moreo3er. >ther countries in the !outhern Cone made ase of long-term im"risonment. su""orted b& the National !ecurit& Coctrine and its related countennsurgenc3 methodologies led to the denial of indi3idual rights and the 5illing of thousands of indi3iduals includmg man& com"letel& unrelated to an& armed mo3ement but onl& concerned #ith im"ro3ing life condi tions or attem"ting to "romote social Fustice. that Cold Dar o"tics #ould "re3ail.*** murders before the fall of !omo=a Cue to the mounting "ressure in international and transnational fora in Euro"e and North 2merica. and the recent trium"h of the !andinista re3olution in Nicaragua in 0?(?. Flagrant human rights 3iolations #ere ignored. or fair #or5ing conditions.*. %his led to the dehumani=ation of those detained or abducted. all means ere deemed legitimate in the tight against sub3ersion. guaranteeing 4atin 2merican allies and also an increased mar5et fo r the 9! . EBuall& im"ortant to consider is the training recei3ed b& 4atin 2merican high officers and soldiers at the !chool of (lie 2mericas. healthcare. this confrontational 3ision. it #as also clear 0# then that the radical 4eu had been annihilated and the 2rgentinean Funta continued to "ursue its re"ressi3e "olicies.*** as the result of state and "oliticall& moti3ated 3iolence. In the case of 2rgentina. and other nonHaligned states. the domestic and interna tional "ressure against Pinochet contributed to the acceleration of the "rotracted 3et "lanned transition hac5 to democrac&.

solitar& confinement. or other "olitical identit&. the mutual reinforcement ol attitudes "redicating the use of 3iolent means #as "robabl& reinforced. including the organi=a. !ome of these graduates and others #ere inscribed in the @all of Fame of !>2. the elderl&. students had a "oor understanding and lac5 of regard for human rights. about #hom it is claimed that he rrotected and aided a "aramilitar& death sBuad. Countermielligence agents ai-e F#ereF ad3ised that one of their functions is Lrecommending targets for neutrali=atxon. #hat the& might do.C from @ar3ard. (lie !chool changed into the !chool of the 2mericas. according to a first-hand anal&sis. 3ol. Georgia. unions. the sic5. 0 ??+1. bet#een 0?a( and 0??*.’ Members of the 4atin 2merican armed forces #ere attracted to the !>2 for 3arious reasons. Dhat is not included in these escer"ts.* In "ractice.M a terni #hich is defined in one manual as Ldetaining or discreditingM hut #hich L#as cornH monl& used at the time as a eu"hemism for esecution or destruction. including XE "ercent ol’ those im"licated in the massacre of El Mo=ote. and o"erated there until its re"lacement b& the Destern I lemis"here Institute for !ecurit& Coo"era tion in )**0. In El !al3ador..M. It rather reflected a crucial contradiction in 9! "olic& during the Cold Dar. ho#e3er. !tudents did not attend !(12 because of their desire to further human rights or "romote democrac& in their home nation. >ne should conclude that the !>2 e/"erience "robabl& increased the li5elihood of human rights 3iolations being follo#ed b& its gradu ates as "art of the cam"aign against the radical 4eft and its su""orters. 2ccordingl&. the cumculum of the !92 centered on counterH insurgenc& o"erations. and the inFured of both genders along #ith their usuall& female careta5ersH sim"l& on the basis of their national. "articularl& "o#er ins"ired b& the !o3iets or the Cubans. children. the use of electric shoc5. e3en #hat the& are ca"able of doing. it #ould bring together some of the most unsa3or& thugs in the hemis"here. disru"ting rou tines. Dinter )**E. Ph. h3"H nosis. #ere graduates of !>2. !e"tember )0 . !r. >ther torture mechanisms recommended b& the manuals #ere L"rolonged constraint. and Manuel 2ntonio CalleFas of (wuatemala. "rofessional li! forces. 2ccordingl&. >f the )+ accused. and strengthening the armed forces in 4atin 2merica encouraged the forceful ta5eo3er of "o#er and the ado"tion of counterinsurgenc& methods that tore a"art these societies. religious. Interested in curtailing the ad3ance of the re3olutionar& 4eft and radical insurgenc& in the 2mericas. the !92 launched #itch-hunts to e/"el and "unish leftleaning ci3ilians #ho #ere su""osed communist threats.$. It targets "eo"le on the basis of #ho the& are rather than on the basis of #hat the& ha3e done. 2mbiguit& #as ensconced in the !>2 training manuals. 0X k 0R Genocide is not sim"l& unFust (although it certainl& is unFust1N it is also e3il.M %his #as not a stor& of deceit. the !92 taught courses that encouraged 3alues such as a free democrac& and a stable econom& in a L#ell organi=ed societ&.lion of death sBuads H had been graduates of the !>2 In Nicaragua. 0himberto Regalado @ernAnde= of @onduras. %he ohiecti3e of the !>2 included the discouragement of an& t&"e of leftist "o#er in 4atin 2merica. Roberto :iola and 4eo"oldo (ialtieri of 2rgentina. or moisture. starting #ith the rule of la# and indi3idual rights. Man& considered tra3eling abroad a 3alued "er5 or attendance at the !chool a sine Buci non for rising in the rat5s once bac5 in the home countr&. undermined the rule of la#. in 0?a. considering it a nuisance or focus of Fo5es due to the sharing of e/"eriences #ith fello# militar& officers. "rolonged esertion. and "roduced some of the most atrocious records of crimes against humanit& . is the larger contest %he se3en arm manuals trainFedF 4atin 2merican militaries to infiltrate and s"& u"on ci3ilians."rof. ethnic. more than half of all officers cited flr human rights 3iola tions iii a maFor massacre. and ra"e. >fficiall&. 2mong reno#ned graduates of !>2 #ere General I lugo llan=er #ho ruled 7oli3ia bet#een 0?( 0 and I ?(a.M Further more. %he 9N %ruth Commission re"ort of March 0??E found that t#o of the three assassins of 2rchbisho" >scar Romero H also im"licated in other human rights ahuses.#ea"onr& industr&. Iiicreasingl3. there #as e/"licit instruction on the art ot L#heedling. de"ri3ation of sensor stimuli. false im"risonment. Rafael :idela. M2!. including student grou"s. the !92 indoctrinated the militar& stud&ing there to re"ress left-leaning ci3ilians #ho #ere su""osed com munist threats. use of truth serum to obtain information and "a&ment of bounties for enenn dead. leading critics ol the school to claim that 0f the !>2 held an alumni meeting. In fact. #hich o"ened in 0?+E. according to #hich a target #as Lsomeone that could be hostile or not. res"onsible for the deaths of nearl& I!> indi3idualsN >mar %orriFos and Manuel Noriega of Panama.M the !>2 term for an inhumane set of interrogation techniBues. the 9! interest #as to find allies interested in su""orting the same liberal democratic "rinci"les dear to 2merican citi=ens. de"ri3ation of food or slee". !imilarl&. @&"atia. + e impact to genoci'e transcen's mass 'eat ---it 'epri"es life of meaning an' re1&ires an et ical response Car' 74 . @o#e3er.M according to a Pentagon official (Dashington Post. threats of "ain. "h&sical ahuse. of "hilo. estremes of heat. 2 re3ie# of training manuals "re"ared 0# the 9! militar& and used bet#een 0?a( and 0??0 Ibr intelligence training courses in 4atin 2merica and at the !92 re3eals. training. Le Graduates of the !>2 ha3e been im"licated in massi3e human rights 3iola tions. and use of drugs or "lacebos. Colom bian General llernAn 'os< Gu=mAn Rodrigue=.M #hile encouraging 4atin 2mericans to learn from the modem. hlaclmail. cold. Father Fer nando Cardenal indicted )+ members of the Nicaraguan Guardia #ith human rights 3iolations including torture. It mo3ed to Fort @enning. the school #as attem"ting to Lcreate "rofessional soldiers. arrest and detention. charitable organi=ations and "olitical "ai0ies to confuse armed insurgencies #ith legal "olitical o""osition and to disregard or get around an& la#s regarding due "rocess. 2fter the Cuban re3olulion. 9! leaders #ere ^tr&ing to reconcile the irreconcilable b& embracing re"ressi3e and corru"t elites #hile simultaneousl& attem"ting to foster democrac& and social Fustice. ConclusionJ !tudents of international relations ha3e obser3ed #ith "er"le/it& that during the Cold Dar "eriod. Fello# ` the Institute for Research in the @umanities ZClaudia. $Genocide and !ocial Ceath. 9! "olicies of bac5ing. the curnculum of the !92 centered on countennsilrgenc3 o"erations. that the& ad3ocatedJ tactics such as e/ecuting guerrillas. (>ne commentator sa&s genocide 5ills "eo"le . )I #ere graduates of the !>2.00 %he training manuals did not differentiate bet#een guerilla insurgents and "eaceful ci3ilian "rotestors . It characteristicall& includes the one-sided 5illing of defenseless ci3ilians H babies. the disabled.

%he&. made to "artici"ate in their o#n murder. and if female. in that e3ent. not e3en #ho the& are1. and social conte/ts that are ca"able of ma5ing d&ing bearable and e3en of ma5ing one8s death meaningful. !ocial death can e3en aggra3ate "h&sical death b& ma5ing it indecent. %he harm of social death is not necessaril& less e/treme than that of "h&sical death. Dhen a grou" #ith its o#n cultural identit& is destro&ed. add the s"ecific crime of genocide6 Dhat. social connections. %he& ma& be literall& stri""ed na5ed. if an&thing. and their cor"ses. although on the Buestion of #hether it is #orse. . :ital interests can be transgenerational and thus sur3i3e one8s death. account for much of the moral o""robrium attaching to the conce"t of genocide . 7efore death. "roducing a conseBuent meaninglessness of one8s life and e3en of its termination. then.( :ictims of genocide are commonl& 5illed #ith no regard for lingering suffering or e/"osure. and the degradation of indi3iduals6 Is an& ethicall& distinct harm done to members of the targeted grou" that #ould not ha3e been done had the& been targeted sim"l& as indi3iduals rather than because of their grou" membershi"6 %his is the Buestion that I find central in arguing that genocide is not sim"l& reducible to mass death. ensla3ement. the& ma& become $sociall& dead$ and their descendants $natall& alienated. %hese historical facts. I belie3e the ans#er is affirmati3eJ the harm is ethicall& distinct. lied to about the most 3ital matters. I #ish onl& to Buestion the assum"tion that it is not . and the& can other#ise or also be "rosecuted as crimes against humanit&. cultural de3elo"ments (including languages1.on the basis of #hat the& are. friends. torture. to an& of the other #ar crimes. remo3ing all res"ectful and caring ritual. Dh&. Genocide is a "aradigm of #hat Israeli "hiloso"her 23ishai Margalit (0??+1 calls $indecent$ in that it not onl& destro&s 3ictims but first humiliates them b& deliberatel& inflicting an $utter loss of freedom and control o3er one8s 3ital interests$ (00I1. the s"ecial e3il of genocide lies in its infliction of not Fust "h&sical death (#hen it does that1 but social death. if conducted during #artime. and "roFects of earlier generations (0?X). are alread& #ar crimes. its sur3i3ors lose their cultural heritage and ma& e3en lose their intergenerational connections. #itness to the murder of famil&. or to the crimes against humanit& Fust enumerated. are routinel& treated #ith utter disres"ect. In m& 3ie#. It is not Fust that one8s grou" membershi" is the occasion for harms that are definable inde"endentl& of one8s identit& as a member of the grou". %o use >rlando Patterson8s terminolog&. the& are li5el& to be also 3iolated se/uall&. IW?1. robbed of their last "ossessions. and neighbors. forced de"ortation. genocide 3ictims are ordinaril& de"ri3ed of control o3er 3ital transgenerational interests and more immediate 3ital interests. it ma& be argued. Get such atrocities. !"ecific to genocide is the harm inflicted on its 3ictims8 social 3italit&. not sim"l& mass murder.$ no longer able to "ass along and build u"on the traditions. is not alread& ca"tured b& la#s that "rohibit such things as the ra"e.

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%he geo"olitics of oil has alread& emboldened Russia in its 8near abroad8 and China in far-off "laces li5e 2frica and 4atin 2merica. again finds itself in a "osition to address a transnational "roblem in a #a& that #ill benefit both the international communit& collecti3el& and the 9.html1 !M Dith the im"ending s&stemic crisis of global #arming on the hori=on. %o do this he has been aided b& significant amounts of mone& deri3ed from oil e/"orts. %o blame our o#n misfortunes and inadeBuacies on someone else has been an old and "ro3en method to gain ade"ts and to stir hate and /eno"hobia among 4atin 2merican societies. and its maFor "o#er ri3als .Glo!al Insta!ility DA – 1NC +rying to ta. recei3ing "olitical and material benefits b& "la&ing one side against the other. 2s oil is a limited natural resource. Nicaragua and Ecuador. a line of action that the :ene=uelan strongman has embraced #ith enthusiasm.!. 2t the same time the& sa# their fa3ored candidates >llanta @umala. %his amount of mone& has been mostl& s"ent in three areasJ (a1. reall& handouts. 2t least [. all o3er the #orld. the :ene=uelan strongman. in Peru.e control of Latin America t reatens *( primacy an' glo!al sta!ility 5lare"as 0 (4ouis Klare3as W "rofessor at the Center for Global 2ffairs at Ne# Gor5 9ni3ersit& W L!ecuring 2merican Primac& Dhile %ac5ling Climate ChangeJ %o#ard a National !trateg& of Greengemon&M W Cecember 0Ith.)**(-*?-0X-a-"ossible. s&m"ath&. forest fires. If these efforts intensif& and ta5e root. For the time being the main efforts are directed to#ards the consolidation of the alliance. the com"etition for oil is fueling animosities bet#een the maFor "o#ers.!. %he strateg& chosen b& this alliance is based on t#o facts and one 3er& "artial truth. greenhouse gases #ill continue to rise. %he starting "oint of the anti-9. !o long as the global econom& remains oil-de"endent."olitical-scenario-for-latinamerica-)**(-)*0)-. e3en. and storms. e/"loitation of the region’s natural resources aided b& the s&stematic "olitical inter3ention of this countr& in the internal affairs of the countries of the hemis"here. #ea5er countries. )**( L2 "ossible "olitical scenario for 4atin 2mericaM htt"J--mue3ete. Man& celebrate secretl& the harassment of such a strong "o#er b& smaller.huffington"ost. %he current "roblem is t#o-fold.!. 2nd in either case. an amount roughl& eBui3alent to )-E_ of :ene=uela’s &earl& GCP during the last nine &ears. 2s a result of these strategies the Fidel Castro-@ugo Cha3e= a/is has been able to ma5e some "rogress in its "olitical obFecti3es of eroding the "olitical standing of the 9nited !tates in the hemis"here and. "h&sical action against the northern Lem"ireM.!. 2 fe# e3en laugh at the colorful antics of President Cha3e= and ha3e a hard time ta5ing him seriousl&. Curing the last nine &ears about [))* billion of oil mone& ha3e entered the :ene=uelan national treasur& #hile national debt has tri"led to about [+I billion. "re3ious member of :ene=uelan Congress. 7& financing the "residential cam"aigns in se3eral countries the& ha3e been able to hel" E3o Morales.!. e3en. social "rograms of a tem"orar& nature. @o#e3er. %he 3er& "artial truth is that these t#o afflictions are the result of 9. "olitical harassment of the 9nited !tates re"resents Fust one as"ect in a "ossible #ider "lan. Cristina Kirchner (E1N s %he aid gi3en b& Cha3e= to Nicaragua .!. In other #ords . national securit& originated about nine &ears ago #ith the "olitical alliance bet#een Fidel Castro. In "arallel @ugo Cha3e=’s maFor inFection of mone& into 2rgentina has hel"ed President Nestor Kirchner to Foin the anti-9. 2lliance.com. global #arming #ill . amusement. 4ater stages might include actual economic aggression and.* billion ha3e gone into the third categor&. %he t#o facts areJ e/treme "o3ert& and e/treme ineBualit& in the region. @ugo Cha3e=’s strategies. Essentiall& the current threats against 9. !e"tember 0Xth. %his is all #ell 5no#n although generall& "ercei3ed #ith indifference. First. the Cuban dictator and @ugo Cha3e=. ad3isor of Petroleum#orld. selfishl&. club. in Me/ico lose close elections #hile remaining "oliticall& strong.!. %his is #hat Fidel Castro has done for the last fort& &ears and this is #hat he has recommended to @ugo Cha3e= . Anti-Americanism an' C a"e6 ascen'ancy ca&se' !y eg accesses e"ery impacts atters sta!ility glo!ally an' ca&ses in'epen'ent great po#er #ar Coronel > (Gusta3o Coronel -.#ord"ress. !till others ha3e a #ea5 s"ot in their ideological hearts for authoritarian regimes and resent the hard sale of democrac& being done b& the 9. %o do thisJ s Cha3e= is "ro3iding mone& to members of the 2rmed Forces of 7oli3ia and to cit& ma&ors. floods. es"eciall& 4o"e= >brador. a nast& =ero-sum contest could be looming on the hori=on for the 9. %hat li5el& means more de3astating #ater shortages.!.1 !M !till. a mo3e for #hich he did not need strong incenti3es. >thers are sitting on the "olitical fence. there is no doubt that there are strong efforts being made b& some 4atin 2merican "olitical leaders to harass the 9nited !tates. con3erting fossil fuels li5e oil to run national economies is "roducing irre3ersible harm in the form of carbon dio/ide emissions. E/"erts are "redicting as much as a +*_ increase in carbon dio/ide emissions in the ne/t t#ent&-fi3e &ears.!. in hemis"heric "olitical circles. 4atin 2merica could become a geopolitical ot spot in the mid-term. to the :ene=uelan "oorN (b1. the acBuisition of #ea"onsN and (c1. "olitical scene. Caniel >rtega and Rafael Correa #in the "residencies of 7oli3ia.com-louis5lare3as-securing-american-"rimac&QbQE?E))E. the 9.a contest #hich threatens 2merican "rimac& and global stabilit&. droughts. e3en. and tolerance or. )**? htt"J--###. %his is a s&mbiotic relationshi" that has been "ro3iding Fidel Castro #ith mone& and @ugo Cha3e= #ith brains. donations and "romises to 4atin 2merican countries in order to consolidate "olitical alliances and establish "olitical I>9’s. of gaining su""orters in the 9. if global com"etition for access to energ& resources does not undermine international securit&. subsidies. !econd. oil #ill be a cul"rit for the instabilit&."ublic "olic& e/"ert. in order to increase "olitical control o3er these im"ortant 7oli3ian sectors ()1N s Cha3e= could be funneling mone& into 2rgentina to "romote the candidac& of Mrs. and 2ndres 4o"e= >brador.

%he alternati3e is an alliance #ith fundamentalist grou"s or countries that share @ugo Cha3e=’s resentment against the 9nited !tates. It has to do #ith the concerted action of terrorist grou"s such as @e=bollah and F2RC. #hat the& can do to the international oil mar5et. due to the reluctance of im"ortant sectors of the countr& to roll o3er and "la& dead to Morales’s "retensions to im"ose the :ene=uelan Constituent 2ssembl& model that ended #ith the :ene=uelan democrac& becoming an authoritarian regime. 2s it stands toda& %he 9nited !tates has se3eral #a&s to #ea5en Castro-Cha3e= strategies. 7oth leaders ha3e an anti-9. as it seems to be the case. !ome .1. %he& figure that in such a situation the& ha3e less to lose than the 9nited !tates and its industriali=ed allies. 7ut oil is not their onl& #ea"on. s In Ecuador. might decide to go her se"arate #a&s. s 7oli3ia is in the threshold of a maFor "olitical crisis. that a 4atin 2merican "olitical leader becomes a ma=or t reat to #orl' sta!ility2 . Kirchner. Castro and Cha3e=. in case the& decided to sus"end e/"orts of this resource. #ill include the financing of a [) billion refiner&N s %he economic ties of :ene=uela and Ecuador are increasing 3ia the oil industr&. %he enem& of their enem& has become their friend (. Correa does not ha3e the mone& or the charisma of Cha3e=.!. causing a maFor disru"tion in the #orld’s econom&. as far as #e can tell. almost entirel& based on mone& and resentment against the 9nited !tates. %heir main #ea"on is oil or. Peru and Ecuador and sociall& turbulent grou"s li5e the illegal immigrants alread& li3ing in the 9nited !tates.!. could last for long. understand that this strateg& of "rogressi3e "olitical harassment of the 9nited !tates might not succeed 2 %he defeat of 4o"e= >brador in Me/ico robbed them of a maFor all& in this strateg& . Recent e3ents ha3e con3inced her that Cha3e=’s su""ort "robabl& re"resents a 5iss of death for her "olitical future. assisted b& 3iolent indigenous grou"s such as those in 7oli3ia. rather.Cha3e= in the struggle for hemis"heric "olitical leadershi"..Me/ican border. million barrels of oil "er da& #ould be out of the su""l& s&stem. creating numerous "oints of social and "olitical conflict along the #ea5 9. s Cha3e= is conducting a strateg& of alignment #ith "olitical sectors in the 9nited !tates that o""ose the current go3ernment "olicies. @ugo Cha3e= is in need of an alternati3e "lan. s Mrs. In "o#er 4o"e= >brador #ould ha3e "romoted illegal immigration into the 9.alread& amounts to about [I** million and. e3en if she #on. It seems im"robable that the alliance of these countries. if he follo#s through in his "romise. Dhat if this alliance falters6 %he main motors of the anti-9. s In the 9nited !tates the indi3iduals and grou"s that su""ort Cha3e= are doing so out of "ersonal material or "olitical interest and ha3e been largel& reFected b& "ublic o"inion. %he& also ha3e a "olitical #ea"on to resort to. In fact. %his #ould be the first time in histor&. as he does not #ant to re"eat Morales’s errors and reali=es that Cha3e=’s success in :ene=uela has been due to his dee" "oc5ets rather than his charisma. global alliance as one of their main obFecti3es. although President Correa’s ideolog& alread& includes a significant com"onent of resentment against the 9nited !tates. 7& "romoting the action of these grou"s against the 9nited !tates and its 4atin 2merican and Euro"ean allies these grou"s can 'o m&c arm to glo!al political sta!ility2 In this scenario one the main "romoters of this action #ould not be located in the Middle East or in the Far East but in 4atin 2merica. unfa3orable outcome. !he has alread& gi3en some indications that 2rgentina should not become a sim"le "a#n of Castro. ! alliance . Correa is alread& loo5ing at the 7oli3ian "olitical turmoil #ith caution. 2lmost all of these strategic initiati3es b& the Castro-Cha3e= alliance sho# an alternati3e. %his e/"lains the a""ro/imation of @ugo Cha3e= to Iranian President 2hmadineFad. the imminent death of Fidel Castro has "racticall& eliminated much of the brain com"onent of this a/is. For some of these sectors the desire to erode the current administration has "ro3en greater than their lo3e for democrac&.!.

.

such as o"en elections. 2rmed re3olution is no# dead in the region that #as once its cradle. In the late 0?X*s and 0??*s.$ such as :ene=uela8s Cha3e= and Peru8s 2lberto FuFimori. #here Fitters in the 9.!. to name a fe#. the 9nited !tates #as accused of "eddling its $Dashington consensus$ of laisse=-faire economic "olicies. not blame. influence in the region. %his has certainl& been true in the economic realm. LPost-2merican @emis"hereJ Po#er and Politics in an 2utonomous 4atin 2merica. economic instabilit&. 2s 4atin 2merica8s achie3ements suggest.!. such as the "ri3ati=ation of state-o#ned assets and freetrade agreements. In some Buarters. 4atin 2mericans used their ne#found electoral "o#er to elect $democratic "o"ulists. !ome countries. and the 9. the 9nited !tates8 #illingness and abilit& to e/ert control in the region ha3e diminished. the countr& has begun to act more asserti3el&. gi3en the di"lomatic and financial conseBuences of "ro3o5ing Dashington8s ire. the region no# has a ne# brand of leaders #ho ha3e ta5en office through the ballot bo/ and ha3e stri3en to "ro3ide education.?PgQsentO01--@24 For much of the t#entieth centur&. inde"endent central ban5s. and. Ce"artment of Cefense in )**? and Cirector for 2ndean 2ffairs at the National !ecurit& Council in )*0*-00 (Russell.!. .!.LA Insta!ility DA – 1NC Latin American sta!ility no# solely !eca&se t e *nite' (tates as left t e region Cran'all 11 W 2ssociate Professor of International Politics at Ca3idson College and the author of %he 9nited !tates and 4atin 2merica 2fter the Cold Dar. In the "ast. tal5 "ri3atel& about their disli5e of 7ra=il8s arrogant di"lomac&. in turn. For the most "art. %he 9nited !tates8 relationshi" #ith 7oli3ia "ro3ides one e/am"le of Dashington8s declining "o#er in the region. ?*. %his has occurred in "art because more im"ortant issues. In the last se3eral &ears. 4atin 2mericans #ant results. influence.Fournals-fora?*Pdi3O. such as enrolling their children in school. filled #ith national sa3ings from the countr&8s co""er "roduction. into lasting democratic institutions. 7ush administration res"onded to Morales8 re"eated di"lomatic insults largel& #ith silence. 7ut there is also the indis"utable realit& that the region itself is no# more confident acting on its o#n. a feat accom"lished largel& through inno3ati3e and homegro#n social "rograms. 7ut sus"ected of being more "redis"osed to fiscal "rofligac&--#ould turn to the seducti3e tonic of "o"ulism. man& "redicted that 4atin 2merican go3ernments -es"eciall& leftist ones 2merica8s chronicall& #ea5 financial and fiscal fundamentals. It has long been said that #hen the 9nited !tates catches a cold.!. Get e3en the ostensibl& hard-line George D. Colombian. #hen 7oli3ia #as a faithful client of the 9nited !tates. including the #ars in 2fghanistan and IraB.-funded democrac& "rograms the follo#ing &ear. outsiders "rescribed bitter medicine. 2 decade or so ago. @uman ca"ital and economic com"etiti3eness. the region is gro#ing u" fast. made man& 4atin 2mericans #onder if the& had not been better off under the relati3el& enlightened mano dura (strong hand1 regimes of the "ast. 7elie3ing that it #as time to "a& bac5 the 2mericans for their &ears of bac5ing his "olitical o""onents. and the more confident among them are fle/ing their muscles. #ho often go3erned in autocratic #a&s. 7ra=il8s emergence as a serious "o#er is a direct result of the increasing absence of 9.* million 4atin 2mericans #ere lifted out of "o3ert& bet#een )**) and )**X. %he "rogram is also credited #ith hel"ing reduce 7ra=il8s notoriousl& high income ineBualit&. are #hat occu"& the thoughts of these "oliticians. Get the region struggled to con3ert democratic "ractices. is legitimi=ing the democratic s&stem--a sort of 3irtuous c&cle in a region more accustomed to 3icious ones. @e #as Princi"al Cirector for the Destern @emis"here at the 9. #hen 4atin 2merica #as in economic trouble. securit&. %reasur& Ce"artment. 4atin 2merica catches the flu. In countries as dis"arate as 7ra=il. Instead of loo5ing to Dashington for guidance. Ces"ite #hat the fier& rhetoric of leaders such as Cha3e= might indicate. the International Monetar& Fund. e3en s"ar5 ne# ri3alries. including in the 9nited !tates. blame for doing the em"ire8s bidding #as no# "inned on the $technocratic im"erialists$ from the Dorld 7an5. !ensing an o""ortunit& to gain the regional stature that has long eluded it. Countries are reassessing their interests and alliances. there #as a disconnect bet#een Dashington8s loft& rhetoric of democrac& and regional harmon& and its demonstrated #illingness to Fettison these "rinci"les #hen its economic or geo"olitical interests #ere at sta5e. Morales had gone e&eball to e&eball #ith Dashington and li3ed to tell about it. and clothes for children. 7ra=il8s res"onses to de3elo"ments such as Cha3e=8s ongoing assault on :ene=uela8s democrac& and e3en the )**? cou" in @onduras ha3e undermined its credibilit& as a serious leader. ho#e3er. at times. ho#e3er. 7oli3ian President E3o Morales e/"elled the 9. the countries of 4atin 2merica became "art of the $third #a3e$ of democrati=ation that #as then #ashing across the globe. ambassador and the 9. e3en continued to gro# at almost China-li5e rates. E3en after the Cold Dar.!. %he& refused to abandon mar5et-friendl& "olicies such as fle/ible e/change rates. Me/ican. gi3en the end of e/ternal and local communist challenges and the shift to an increasingl& multilateral #orld that had room for ne# "o#ers. including chronic bouts of h&"erinflation. %here is no greater e/am"le of the region8s autonom& in economic "olic&ma5ing than 7ra=il8s 7olsa Familia or Me/ico8s >"ortunidades.org-@>4-Page6 handleOhein. such as 7ra=il and Peru.M Foreign 2ffairs. 2t the time. 4atin 2merican countries are increasingl& #or5ing among themsel3es to conduct di"lomac&. 4atin 2merica remained relati3el& unscathed. %he 7ra=ilian and Me/ican efforts ha3e been #idel& emulated outside the region. P>DER P42G! 4atin 2merica8s economic gro#th and "olitical stabilit& are dri3ing an un"recedented "o#er shift #ithin the region. %his socioeconomic "ros"erit&. 4atin 2merica8s gro#th has begun to translate into more "ros"erous and de3elo"ed societies. 2nother e/am"le is Chile8s creation of a rain&-da& fund. 2t times. 2s the Dorld 7an5 has noted. countries had difficult& translating this into lasting social gains for the entire "o"ulation. as a sort of neoim"erialism. Me/ico. such as inde"endent Fudiciaries. "ursue shared obFecti3es.!. Instead of 9. among others. e3en e/"orting its solutions globall&. %he& "oint "roudl& to the fact that . 7ut leftist go3ernments in 7ra=il. after decades of rule b& militar& dictatorshi"s. not rote antica"italist slogans. In recent &ears. marines or CI2 agents. conditional cash-transfer "rograms that gi3e mone& to "oor families if the& meet certain reBuirements. and o""ortunities for their constituents. #hen 4atin 2merica finall& began to sla& inflation and re"lace it #ith im"ressi3e macroeconomic stabilit&. and Peru3ian officials.E (Ma&'une )*001J "XE. 7olsa Familia targets the 0) million 7ra=ilians #ho des"eratel& need the assistanceN most of the mone& is used to bu& food. and 9rugua&. %his [0). in toda&8s climate. the region has sho#n that it can address its o#n "roblems.!. this #as ine3itable. ha3e forced 4atin 2merica do#n the "olic&ma5ing food chain. E3en in the 0??*s. res"onded to the crisis #ith "rudence. 4atin 2merica8s greater autonom& is both a cause and a result of decreased 9. school su""lies. econom& could Buic5l& undermine 4atin during the recent global economic crisis. 7ut com"licating 7ra=il8s "o#er "la& is the reaction from its fello# 4atin 2merican nations. Get o3er the "ast decade or so. Mean#hile. such as se3ere fiscal austerit& measures. In its stead. and fiscal restraint. and Peru. Crug Enforcement 2dministration in )**X and sus"ended 9. htt"J--heinonline. the benefits of democrac& and o"en mar5ets are no# finall& beginning to tric5le do#n to a citi=enr& that had lost faith in elected go3ernments.X billion account ga3e Chile a le3el of "olic& fle/ibilit& during the recent global economic do#nturn that the 9nited !tates and man& other industrial economies could onl& en3&.!. Chile. it #ould ha3e been unimaginable for a 7oli3ian go3ernment to e3en consider such acts.

Relations bet#een the 9!2 and 4atin 2merican states ha3e t#o "rimar& effects on the "robabilit& of a cou".com-content-. a leader must be con3inced that the signals are credible before ta5ing the ris5& decision to stage a cou".. suggesting that the 9!2 "la&s anS integral role in (de1stabili=ing e/ecuti3es in 4atin 2merica. "lent& of S e3idence indicates that the 9!2 continues to a "la& a 5e& roleS in go3ernmental stabilit& in 4atin 2merica. the 2llende go3ernment #as o3erthro#nS in a cou" in !e"tember 0?(E. (2&bar de !oto..S Dhile toda&’s efforts are "erha"s less ob3ious..1. bringing General Pinochet’s S blood& dictatorshi" to "o#er. Fearing a s"read of 4eft-leaning leadershi" S across the continent. not to mention the entire S shel3es of boo5s discussing do=ens of other #ell-5no#n cou"s in the region .(7rasilia8s reluctance to s"ea5 out for hemis"heric democrac& is "articularl& ine/cusable for a go3ernment that includes man& officials #ho suffered under the successi3e militar& regimes of the 0?+*s. %his e3idence suggests that the 9!2 has "la&ed a uniBue role regarding the securit& of 4atin 2merican states. %he Bualitati3e literature on this subFect re3ealsS a ^con3entional #isdom’. %he e/tensi3e hostile signals sent from the 9!2 to the 2m rben= go3ernment indicated that e3en Castillo’s meager force could successfull& attain and sustain "o#er #ith 9! su""ort. President Ni/on ta""ed @enr& KissingerS to lead a concentrated effort to oust 2llende from "o#er b&S su""l&ing anti-2llende "oliticians and media #ith co3ert S funds. Man& ne#l& elected 4eftist leaders.. %his "olic& #as reinforced #ith the ^Roose3elt Corollar&’ (0?*. #hich ser3e as hostile signals that increase their "ercei3ed "robabilit& of successfull& o3erthro#ing the go3ernment. More generall&. Namel&. the historical dominance of the 9!2 in the region ma5e it reasonable to focus e/clusi3el& on signals sent from the 9!2.S %his article ta5es a t#o-ste" a""roach to im"ro3e ourS understanding of ho# relations #ith the 9!2 affect cou"s in S 4atin 2merica. If the&S manage to 5ill me there #ill onl& be one "erson in this #orld to S blameJ the "resident of the 9nited !tates’ (Mar5e&. 0?(*s.(-.S President @ugo Cha3e= recentl& blamed the 9!2 for attem"tingS to foment a cou" in :ene=uelaJ ^I 5no# I am condemned. S I’m sure in Dashington the& are "lanning m& death. L!u""orter of stabilit& or agent of agitation6 %he effect of 9! foreign "olic& on cou"s in 4atin 2merica. %heS rise of other 4eft-leaning leaders . Dhile the e/am"les su""ort the discussion to this "oint. In this case. Ph. "s&chological and di"lomatic actions to destabili=e the leader and "ut anti-communist elements in "o#er. %he efforts culminated in a cou" attem"t b& Colonel Carlos Castillo in 0?I.. 'ournal of Peace Research. )**I1. In more gra"hic terms. 0?+*W ??. then the signal is li5el& dismissed as noise.M htt"J--F"r. and de"lete the resources a3ailable to the go3ernment to deter cou" attem"ts b& bloc5ing foreign aid or international in3estment. !cholars in the international relations literature ha3e long considered . and #or5ing to den& Chile international S financial assistance (Kornbluh. 0??E1. >ne #a& that #e can brea5 do#n signals is b& considering the factors that #ould be most im"ortant to a cou" "lotter. the 9!2 made clear its intent to 5ee" Euro"ean "o#ers out of the region.. a""l&ing S di"lomatic "ressure. 0???1. such as Cristina Kirchener inS 2rgentina and E3o Morales in 7oli3ia. 0???1. Dhile man& countries ha3e li5el& "la&ed a role in affecting cou"s in 4atin 2merica. For e/am"le. hostile signals channeled from the 9!2 should increase cou" "lotters’ "ercei3ed "robabilit& of staging a successful cou" (right on the /-a/is1 because the& gi3e the "lotters an ad3antage o3er the go3ernment in solidif&ing "o#er once the cou" is attem"ted. Political !cience..S recentl& released CI2 documents confirm that Ni/on orderedS the CI2 to ^ma5e the econom& scream’ in order to unseat theS democraticall& elected "resident (CI2.1 *( eg forces co&ps # ic 'esta!li6es all of Latin America + yne/ 1? W Professor in the Ce"artment of Political !cience.sage"ub. )**+1.. 0?(*1. %he 3olume of #or5 discussing the 9! in3ol3ement in theS cou" to o3erthro# 2llende alone is im"ressi3e.S !ee ]immermann (0?XE1 for an e/cellent (albeit dated1 re3ie# of the literature S considering the effect of outside actors on cou"s in 4atin 2merica.0S %hus.. and anal&ses of recentl& declassified documents unco3ering co3ert o"erations during the Cold Dar eraS (Kornbluh. 2fter three &ears S of intense "ressure. "ro3iding a focal "oint for this stud&. )**EN Castaneda. 9ni3ersit& of Kentuc5&. 9ni3ersit& of Io#a. If a signal lac5s credibilit&.S including Presidents 7achelet (Chile1. and #e can e/"ect the 9nited !tates to continue to "la&S a 5e& role in these e3ents. the CI2 used economic.%his #or5 includes rich detail of 9! efforts to o3erthro# both dictators andS democraticall& elected regimes (4aFeber. :amS =Bue= (9rugua&1. )**( (Cla&ton 4. "aramilitar&.-. #hich "ro3ided Fustification for direct 9! in3ol3ement based on Roose3elt’s 3ie# that the 9!2 had a ^moral mandate’ to enforce "ro"er beha3ior in 4atin 2merica. and 4ula (7ra=il1S ha3e forged strong ties #ith the 9!2 (@a5im.C. it is unli5el& that lum"ing all hostile foreign "olic& signals into one grou" #ill "ro3ide satisfactor& findings for either scholars or "olic&ma5ers. reflects the same basis forS the 9!2’s Cold Dar efforts to foment cou"s in the region. %his is not to sa& that the general rise of 4eftist go3ernments #illS automaticall& dra# the ire of the 9!2. Chile’s !al3ador 2llende became the S first democraticall& elected Mar/ist head of state in the histor&S of 4atin 2merica.1 follo#ing the im"lementation of 4eft-leaning land redistribution "olicies (including the e/"ro"riation of land o#ned b& the 9!-based 9nited Fruit Com"an&1. Dhat is needed is a more detailed understanding of ho# 3ariations in hostile signals might affect the li5elihood of cou"s in the region. >ne of the most famous e/am"les is the CI2-ins"ired o3erthro# of Guatemalan President 'acobo 2m rben= Gu=mamn (0?I. 0???1. case e3idence sho#s that the 9!2 has "la&ed a 5e& role in inciting cou"s b& sending forces and su""lies to cou" "lotters.?1--@24 IntroductionS >n E No3ember 0?(*. building alliances #ith militar& officers. First. it a""ears that cou"s continue to be rele3ant in 4atin S 2merica. 0?(XN Cullather. 7eginning #ith the Monroe Coctrine (0X)E1. and 0?X*s.

the credibilit& of signals, generall& concluding that credibilit& is deri3ed from the costs incurred in sending the signal (Po#ell, 0??*N Fearon, 0??(1,

+ at ca&ses glo!al #arfare 9oc lin/ 0E Z'ames Francis, Professor of Political !cience at >5anagan 9, College, Discovering the Americas: The Evolution of Canadian Foreign Policy Towards Latin America , 0E*-0E0, Da5e Earl& 7ird FileR
Dhile there #ere economic moti3ations for Canadian "olic& in Central 2merica, securit& considerations #ere "erha"s more im"ortant, Canada "ossessed an interest in "romoting stabilit& in the face of a "otential decline of 9,!, hegemon& in the 2mericas, Perce"tions of declining 9,!, influence in the region W #hich had some credibilit& in 0?(?-0?X. due to the #ildl& ineBuitable di3isions of #ealth in some 9,!, client states in 4atin 2merica, in addition to "olitical re"ression, underde3elo"ment, mounting e/ternal debt, anti-2merican sentiment "roduced b& decades of subFugation to 9,!, strategic and economic interests, and so on W #ere lin5ed to the "ros"ect of e/"losi3e e3ents occurring in the hemis"here, @ence, the Central 2merican imbroglio #as 3ie#ed as a fuse #hich could ignite a catacl&smic "rocess throughout the region, 2nal&sts at the time #orried that in a #orstcase scenario, instabilit& created b& a regional #ar , beginning in Central 2merica and s"reading else#here in

4atin 2merica, might "reoccu"& Dashington to the e/tent that the 9nited !tates #ould be unable to "erform adeBuatel& its im"ortant hegemonic role in the international arena W a concern e/"ressed b& the director of research for Canada’s !tanding Committee Re"ort on Central 2merica, It #as feared that s&c a pre'icament co&l' generate increase' global instability an' "erha"s e3en a hegemonic war, %his is one of the moti3ations #hich
led Canada to become in3ol3ed in efforts at regional conflict resolution, such as Contadora, as #ill be discussed in the ne/t cha"ter,

%e@ican 9elations DA – 1NC
*( egemony in Latin America 'e"astates any relation #it %e@ico Falcoff E (Mar5 Falcoff -- "rofessional staff member of the !enate Foreign Relations and senior constultant to the National 7i"artisan Comission on Central 2merica, $9!-4atin 2merican Relations, 2ugust 0st, )**. ###,aei,org-outloo5-foreign-and-defense-"olic&-regional-latinamerica-us-latin-american-relations-outloo5-1 !M %his series began more than a do=en &ears ago #ith an essa& titled L 9,!,-4atin 2merican RelationsJ Dhere 2re De No#6M !ince this is the last issue of 4atin 2merican >utloo5, it seems #orth#hile to "ose the Buestion again, %he ans#er is bound to be less o"timistic than #hen it #as first as5ed, For one thing, in the inter3ening &ears man& 4atin 2mericans ha3e become disillusioned #ith economic reform, "ri3ati=ation, and Lneo-liberalism M--as the& call itHand are loo5ing once again to the state to sol3e all their "roblem s, For another, corru"tion and Fobber& ha3e
discredited much of the "olitical class at all le3els, %he most recent, lurid e/am"le has been a s"ate of l&nchings of small-to#n officials in Guatemala, Peru, and 7oli3ia, For &et another, the LDashington consensusM--the commitment to

more o"en, freer economiesHis no# regarded as an unfortunate e"isode forced u"on the region b& a selfish, gras"ing, and unfeeling 9nited !tates, %he "roFect for a Free %rade 2rea of the 2mericas (F%221 s"onsored b& the first 7ush and Clinton administrations is often de"icted as a cons"irac& to e@ploit an' s&!=&gate 4atin economies, In its "lace man& no# loo5 to the creation of regional trade blocs as a
better alternati3e, 2t the same time, there is a dee" resentment against the 7ush administration for allegedl& ignoring the region and its "roblems, %o be sure, not all of notions abo3e are accurate, or e3en coherent, Dhat is true is that 4atin 2merica is

not the most im"ortant region for 9,!, "olic&ma5ers and is not li5el& to be at an& time in the foreseeable future, It #ould be Buite ama=ing if it #ere, Partl& due to the ?-00 terrorist attac5s, "artl& as the result of the
emergence of a rogue nuclear state in North Korea, 9,!, securit& concerns ha3e decisi3el& shifted to the Middle East and North 2sia, E3en our relations #ith Destern Euro"e ha3e lost some of their salience, E3en so, this does not mean that 4atin 2merica #ill disa""ear entirel& from the 9,!, national agenda, or e3en that it has done so during the course of the "resent administration, It is #orth recalling that last &ear a free trade agreement #ith Chile #as concluded after nearl& a decade of "ost"onements b& the "re3ious administration, and there is significant mo3ement to#ard a similar agreement #ith the Central 2merican re"ublics, Immigration issues #ill remain im"ortant, "articularl& in the 9,!, relationshi" #ith Me/ico, Gi3en the #ea5 economic "erformance in most of the region--as #ell as a fractious "olitical en3ironment in :ene=uela and Cuba’s "roblematic future--#e can e/"ect the 9,!,-based dias"oras of all the re"ublics to gro# in si=e, :ie#s from 2broad %he #hole notion of L4atin 2mericaM is something of a geogra"hical abstraction, Dhat #e ha3e south of the 9nited !tates are a series of societies, man& of them--in s"ite of su"erficial similarities--sur"risingl& different from one another, 4i5e#ise, attitudes to#ard the 9nited !tates 3ar&, according to historical e/"erience and cultural "redis"osition, %he classic case of a Llo3e-hateM relationshi" is Me/ico, #hich

admires, en3ies, and attem"ts to re"licate the 9nited !tates, 7ut it also resents it--dee"l&, Me/icans ha3e ne3er forgotten the loss of nearl& half of their territor& to the 9nited !tates in 0X.X or the inter3ention of 9,!, militar& forces during the Re3olution of 0?0*, 2t the same time, the 3er& "ro/imit& of the 9nited !tates--a far more successful societ&--acts as a "ermanent #ound to Me/ican selfesteem, guite a"art from their histor& and because their consumer culture has been so hea3il& influenced b& the 9nited !tates,
"articularl& since the N2F%2 agreements, Me/icans feel the "eriodic need to reassert their inde"endence, %his e/"lains, for e/am"le, Me/ico’s reluctance to su""ort efforts to in3o5e the Inter-2merican %reat& of Reci"rocal 2ssistance (the so-called Rio %reat&1 after the attac5 on the Dorld %rade Center, as #ell as its refusal last &ear to su""ort the 9nited !tates at the 9N !ecurit& Council on IraB,Z0R Me/ican ambi3alence to#ard the 9nited !tates is buttressed b& the incon3enient fact that some X million or more of its nationals li3e and #or5 here, and their remittances to their families bac5 home constitute a safet& net crucial to the nation’s stabilit&, Indeed, President :icente Fo/ has "ublicl& stated more than once that the "ros"erit& of Me/ico is de"endent u"on continued 9,!, economic e/"ansion, E3en Me/ican attitudes to#ard the 9nited !tates as a societ& are

com"licated, %he 9,!, media made much of a soccer game last &ear at #hich Me/ican cro#ds cheered for >sama bin 4aden, but a recent sur3e& re3eals ordinar& citi=ens of that countr& di3ided right do#n the middle in their attitudes to#ard their northern neighbor--as man& #ith "ositi3e as negati3e 3ie#s, %his is all the more remar5able because the maFor Me/ican media does all it can to de"ict this
countr& in the dar5est tones, "articularl& #ith regard to the treatment of racial and national minorities, 2""arentl& its re"resentations are not #holl& "ersuasi3e, to Fudge b& the number of Me/icans #ho #ish to come to this countr& and are turned a#a& at the border e3er& da&,

9elations sol"e – 'r&gs an' terrorism (torrs $ (K, 4arr& !torrs, !"ecialist in 4atin 2merican 2ffairs, Foreign 2ffairs, Cefense, and %rade Ci3ision of CR!, 0-0X-)**+ LMe/ico’s Im"ortance and Multi"le

Relationshi"s #ith the 9nited !tatesM, htt"J--assets,o"encrs,com-r"ts-R4EE)..Q)**+*00X,"df, -- 'G1 !haring a ),***-mile border and e/tensi3e interconnections through the Gulf ofS Me/ico, the 9nited !tates and Me/ico are so intricatel& lin5ed together in an S enormous multi"licit& of #a&s that President George D, 7ush and other 9,!,S officials ha3e stated that no countr& is more im"ortant to the 9nited !tates thanS Me/ico, 2t the same time, Me/ican President :icente Fo/ ()***-)**+1, the firstS "resident to be elected from an o""osition "art& in (0 &ears, has sought to strengthenS the relationshi" #ith the 9nited !tates through #hat some ha3e called a LgrandS bargain,M 9nder this "ro"osed bargain, the 9nited !tates #ould regulari=e the statusS of undocumented Me/ican #or5ers in the 9nited !tates and economicall& assist theS less de3elo"ed "artner in the North 2merican Free %rade 2greement (N2F%21,S #hile Me/ico #ould be more coo"erati3e in efforts to control the illegal traffic ofS drugs, "eo"le, and goods into the 9nited !tates,S %he southern neighbor is lin5ed #ith the 9nited !tates through trade andS in3estment, migration and tourism, en3ironment and health concerns, and famil& and S cultural relationshi"s, It is the second most im"ortant trading "artner of the 9nited S !tates, and this trade is critical to man& 9,!, industries and border communities, ItS is a maFor source of undocumented migrants and illicit drugs and a "ossible a3enueS for the entr& of terrorists into the 9nited !tates, 2s a result, coo"eration #ith Me/icoS is essential to deal effecti3el& #ith migration, 'r&g traffic.ing, and border, terrorism,S health, en3ironment, and energ& issues, +errorism lea's to great po#er #arfare ----- only scenario for escalation Ayson/ 1? ZRobert 2&son, Professor of !trategic !tudies and Cirector of the Centre for !trategic !tudiesJ Ne# ]ealand at the :ictoria 9ni3ersit& of Dellington,L2fter a %errorist Nuclear 2ttac5J En3isaging Catal&tic Effects,M (t&'ies in Conflict N +errorism, :olume EE, Issue (, 'ul&, 23ailable >nline to !ubscribing Institutions 3ia InformaDorldR
2 terrorist nuclear attac5, and e3en the use of nuclear #ea"ons in res"onse b& the countr& attac5ed in the first "lace, #ould not necessaril& re"resent the #orst of the nuclear #orlds imaginable, Indeed, there are reasons to #onder #hether nuclear terrorism should e3er be regarded as belonging in the categor& of trul& e/istential threats, 2 contrast can be dra#n here #ith the global catastro"he that #ould come from a massi3e nuclear e/change bet#een t#o or more of the so3ereign states that "ossess these #ea"ons in significant numbers, E3en the #orst terrorism that the t#ent&-first centur& might bring #ould fade into insignificance alongside considerations of #hat a general nuclear #ar #ould ha3e #rought in the Cold Dar "eriod, 2nd it must be admitted that as

long as the maFor nuclear #ea"ons states ha3e hundreds and e3en thousands of nuclear #ea"ons at their dis"osal, there is al#a&s the "ossibilit& of a trul& a#ful nuclear e/change ta5ing "lace "reci"itated entirel& b& state "ossessors themsel3es, 7ut these t#o nuclear #orldsHa non-state actor nuclear attac5 and a catastro"hic interstate nuclear e/changeHare not necessaril& se"arable, It is Fust "ossible that some sort of terrorist attac5, and es"eciall& an act of nuclear terrorism, could "reci"itate a chain of e3ents leading to a massi3e e/change of nuclear #ea"ons bet#een t#o or more of the states that "ossess them, In this conte/t, toda&’s and tomorro#’s terrorist grou"s might assume the "lace allotted during the earl& Cold Dar &ears to ne# state "ossessors of small nuclear arsenals #ho #ere seen as raising the ris5s of a catal&tic nuclear #ar bet#een the su"er"o#ers started b& third "arties, %hese ris5s #ere considered in the late 0?I*s and earl&
0?+*s as concerns gre# about nuclear "roliferation, the so-called nY0 "roblem, It ma& reBuire a considerable amount of imagination to de"ict an es"eciall& "lausible situation #here an act of nuclear terrorism could lead to such a massi3e inter-state nuclear #ar, For e/am"le, in the e3ent of a terrorist nuclear attac5 on the 9 nited !tates, it might #ell be #ondered

Fust ho# Russia and-or China could "lausibl& be brought into the "icture, not least because the& seem unli5el& to be fingered as the most ob3ious state s"onsors or encouragers of terrorist grou"s, %he& #ould seem far too res"onsible to be in3ol3ed in su""orting that sort of terrorist beha3ior that could Fust as easil& threaten
them as #ell, !ome "ossibilities, ho#e3er remote, do suggest themsel3es, For e/am"le, ho# might the 9nited !tates react if it #as thought or disco3ered that the fissile material used in the act of nuclear terrorism had come from Russian stoc5s,.* and if for some reason Mosco# denied an& res"onsibilit& for nuclear la/it&6 %he correct attribution of that nuclear material to a "articular countr& might not be a case of science fiction gi3en the obser3ation b& Michael Ma& et al, that #hile the debris resulting from a nuclear e/"losion #ould be Ls"read o3er a #ide area in tin& fragments, its radioacti3it& ma5es it detectable, identifiable and collectable, and a #ealth of information can be obtained from its anal&sisJ the efficienc& of the e/"losion, the materials used and, most im"ortant c some indication of #here the nuclear material came from,M.0 2lternati3el&, if the act of nuclear terrorism came as a

complete s&rprise, and 2merican officials refused to belie3e that a terrorist grou" #as full& res"onsible (or res"onsible at all1 sus"icion #o&l'

s ift imme'iately to state possessors 2 9&ling o&t Western ally co&ntries li5e the #ould be left #ith a 3er& short list consisting of North Korea, "erha"s Iran if its "rogram continues, and "ossibl& Pa5istan2 B&t at # at stage #o&l' 9&ssia an' C ina !e 'efinitely r&le' o&t in t is ig sta.es game of n&clear Cl&e'oI In "articular, if the act of nuclear terrorism occurred against a bac5dro" of e/isting tension in Dashington’s relations #ith Russia and-or China / an' at a time # en t reats a' alrea'y !een tra'e' !et#een t ese ma=or po#ers/ #o&l' officials an' political lea'ers not !e tempte' to ass&me t e #orstI >f course, the chances of this occurring #ould onl& seem to
9nited Kingdom and France, and "robabl& Israel and India as #ell, authorities in Dashington increase if the 9nited !tates #as alread& in3ol3ed in some sort of limited armed conflict #ith Russia and-or China, or if the& #ere confronting each other from a distance in a "ro/& #ar, as unli5el& as these de3elo"ments ma& seem at the "resent time, %he re3erse might #ell a""l& tooJ should a nuclear terrorist attac5 occur in Russia or China during a "eriod of heightened tension or e3en limited conflict #ith the 9nited !tates, could Mosco# and 7eiFing resist the "ressures that might rise domesticall& to consider the 9nited !tates as a "ossible "er"etrator or encourager of the attac56 Dashington’s early response to a terrorist

n&clear attac. on its o#n soil might also raise the "ossibilit& of an un#anted (and nuclear aided3 confrontation #it 9&ssia an'Oor C ina, For e/am"le, in the noise and confusion during the immediate aftermath of the terrorist nuclear attac5, the 9,!, "resident might be e/"ected to "lace the co&ntryCs arme' forces/ incl&'ing its n&clear arsenal/ on a ig er stage of alert2 In s&c a tense en"ironment, #hen careful "lanning runs u" against the friction of realit&, it is =&st possi!le t at %osco# an'Oor C ina mig t mista.enly rea' t is as a sign of *2(2 intentions to &se force Gan' possi!ly n&clear force3 against t em2 In t at sit&ation/ t e temptations to preempt s&c actions mig t gro#, although it must be admitted that an& "reem"tion
#ould "robabl& still meet #ith a de3astating res"onse, 2s "art of its initial res"onse to the act of nuclear terrorism (as discussed earlier1 Dashington might decide to order a significant con"entional Gor n&clear3 retaliatory or 'isarming attac.

against t e lea'ers ip of t e terrorist gro&p an'Oor states seen to s&pport t at gro&p, Ce"ending on the identit& and es"eciall& the location of these targets, Russia and-or China might inter"ret such action as being far too close for their comfort, and "otentiall& as an infringement on their s"heres of influence an' e"en on t eir so"ereignty, >ne far-fetched but "erha"s not im"ossible scenario might stem from a Fudgment in Dashington that some of the main aiders and abetters of the terrorist action resided some#here such as Chechn&a, "erha"s in connection #ith #hat 2llison claims is the LChechen insurgents’ c long-standing interest in all things nuclear,M.) 2merican "ressure on that "art of the #orld #ould almost certainl& raise alarms in Mosco# that might reBuire a degree of ad3anced consultation from Dashington that the latter found itself unable or un#illing to "ro3ide, %here is also the Buestion of ho# other nuclear-armed states respon' to t e act of n&clear terrorism on anot er mem!er of t at special cl&!, It could reasonabl& be e/"ected that follo#ing a nuclear terrorist attac5 on the 9nited !tates, both Russia and China #ould e/tend immediate s&m"ath& and su""ort to Dashington and #ould #or5 alongside the 9nited !tates in the !ecurit& Council, 7ut there is Fust a chance, albeit a slim one, #here the su""ort of Russia and-or China is less automatic in some cases than in others, For e/am"le, #hat #ould ha""en if the 9nited !tates #ished to discuss its right to retaliate against grou"s based in their territor&6 If, for some reason, Dashington found the res"onses of Russia and China dee"l& under#helming, (neither Lfor us or against usM1 might it also sus"ect that the& secretl& #ere in cahoots #ith the grou", increasing (again "erha"s e3er so slightl&1 t e c ances of a ma=or e@c ange, If the terrorist grou" had some
connections to grou"s in Russia and China, or e/isted in areas of the #orld o3er #hich Russia and China held s#a&, and if Dashington felt that Mosco# or 7eiFing #ere "lacing a curiousl& modest le3el of "ressure on them, #hat conclusions might it then dra# about their cul"abilit&6 If Dashington decided to use, or decided to threaten the use of, nuclear #ea"ons,

the res"onses of Russia and China #ould be crucial to the chances of a3oiding a more serio&s n&clear e@c ange, %he& might surmise, for e/am"le, that #hile the act of nuclear terrorism #as es"eciall& heinous and demanded a strong res"onse, the res"onse sim"l& had to remain belo# the nuclear threshold, It #ould be one thing for a non-state actor to ha3e bro5en the nuclear use taboo, but an entirel& different thing for a state actor, and indeed the leading state in the international s&stem, to do so, If Russia and China felt sufficientl& strongl& about that "ros"ect, there is then the Buestion of #hat o"tions #ould lie o"en to them to dissuade the 9nited !tates from such actionJ and as has been seen o3er the last se3eral decades, the central dissuader of the use of nuclear #ea"ons b& states has been the threat of nuclear retaliation, If some readers find

in'I + e p rase A o# 'are t ey tell &s # at to 'oB imme'iately springs to min'2 (ome mig t e"en go so far as to interpret t is concern as a tacit form of sympat y or s&pport for t e terrorists2 + is mig t not elp t e c ances of n&clear restraint2 . 9&ssia.this sim"l& too fanciful. #hich "ossesses an arsenal of thousands of nuclear #arheads and that has been one of the t#o most im"ortant trustees of the non-use taboo.e' co&ntry respon' to press&re from ot er ma=or n&clear po#ers not to respon' in . #hich seems Buite "lausible. and "erha"s e3en offensi3e to contem"late. #ould the 9nited !tates and Russia be ha""& to sit bac5 and let this occur6 In t e c arge' atmosp ere imme'iately after a n&clear terrorist attac. is subFected to an attac5 of nuclear terrorism2 In response/ %osco# places its n&clear forces "ery "isi!ly on a ig er state of alert an' 'eclares t at it is consi'ering t e &se of n&clear retaliation against t e gro&p an' any of its state s&pporters2 Ho# #o&l' Was ington "ie# s&c a possi!ilityI Dould it reall& be 5een to su""ort Russia’s use of nuclear #ea"ons./ o# #o&l' t e attac. #hat o"tions #ould Dashington ha3e to communicate that dis"leasure6 If China had been the 3ictim of the nuclear terrorism and seemed li5el& to retaliate in 5ind. it ma& be informati3e to re3erse the tables. including outside Russia’s traditional s"here of influence6 2nd if not.

.

7er5ele&. %he& might do so. 7ecause "o#erful states ha3e large s"heres of influence and their securit& and economic interests touch e3er& region of the #orld._))PfOfalse1 !M %hat8s nice #or5 if &ou can get it. because that line of thin5ing is fault& . #hich le3erages its abilit& to go an&#here and do an&thing through massi3e debt. Dhat #e ha3e disco3ered in the "ast 0I &ears is that it is a dangerous mi/ture. Most of that ad3ance has ta5en "lace since 0??*. technolog&. It #as a "artiall& failed and . %@E C2NGER! >F 9NIP>42RI% 2 straightfor#ard "iece of logic from mar5et economics hel"s e/"lain #h& uni"olarit& and globali=ation don8t mi/. 7ut the ra"id ad3ance of globali=ation8s e3ils is. Dhat made 2fghanistan so dangerous under the %aliban #as not that it #as a failed state. No one 5no#s e/actl& #hen the la# of diminishing returns #ill 5ic5 in. Foreign Polic&. but it also increases the number of things that a state must #orr& about. It8s the familiar la# of diminishing returns. %hat is "articularl& true for the 9nited !tates. 'an-Feb )**( -.<ene6&ela )rolif DA – 1NC *nipolarity ris. %he trul& dangerous "laces are the "oints #here the subterranean net#or5s touch the mainstream of global "olitics and economics . %he& are the dar5 side of 2merican "redominance . De "ro"ose three sim"le a/ioms of $globali=ation under uni"olarit&$ that re3eal these dangers. and "eo"le is hardl& ne#. %hese "roblems fester in the form of failed states. !uch reasoning doesn8t rest on ho"eful notions that the great "o#ers #ill #or5 together. Dh&6 7ecause #hat changed "rofoundl& in the 0??*s #as the "olarit& of the international s&stem. more "rofoundl&. regardless of #ho holds them.Page .s <ene6&elan proliferation We!er > (!te3en. on issues ranging from oil de"endenc& and nuclear "roliferation to "andemics and global #arming. but the management of globali=ation is not one of them. other actors. %he negati3e effects of globali=ation since 0??* are not the result of globali=ation itself.X. the& are threatened b& the ris5 of things going #rong-an&#here . the greater the chance that at least one of them #ould e/ercise some control o3er a gi3en combination of s"ace. It #asn8t. the result is distributed go3ernance. Mono"olies. ca"ital.!. reconnect in subterranean net#or5s such as al gaeda. 7ut in a highl& connected #orld. are almost al#a&s bad for both the mar5et and the mono"olist. "laces that fall bet#een the net#or5s are 3er& dangerous "laces-and there #ill be more ungo3erned =ones #hen there is onl& one net#or5 to Foin %he second a/iom ac5no#ledges that highl& connected net#or5s can be efficient. Not onl& because other countries #on8t let it. in some cases. 2/iom 0J 2bo3e a certain threshold of "o#er. mutate li5e "athogenic bacteria. %ha t ma& alread& be ha""ening to the 9nited !tates toda&. the latter starts to o3erta5e the former. robust.com-boo5s6 idOf2EgsQgB0C#CP"gOP2. #hich is #h& large em"ires from 7&=antium to Rome ha3e al#a&s reached a "oint of unsustainabilit&. #here some great "o#er is interested in most e3er& "art of the #orld through "roducti3e com"etition 2/iom )J In an increasingl& net#or5ed #orld. Dhat 2/iom 0 tells &ou is that more 9. 7ut. historicall&. "o#er is not the ans#erN it8s actuall& "art of the "roblem. For the first time in modern histor&. 7ut the 9nited !tates almost certainl& cannot. 2t a certain "oint. %he mobilit& of ideas. it starts to ha""en long before a single great "o#er dominates the entire globe . _))PsourceOblPotsO!dabli#'niPsigOe9mn(@haoM9KB(FClnrCfbmG&?9PhlOenPsaOaPeiO !Rc49>K:EXB2Bg@su4G+CgP3edO*CFGg+2E#22k3Oone"agePBO_))%he_)*trul& _)*dangerous_)*"laces_)*are_)*the_)*"oints_)*#here_)*the_)*subterranean _)*net#or5s_)*touch_)*the_)*mainstream_)*of_)*global_)*"olitics_)*and _)*economics. 7ut e3en if the& don8t. 2 multi"olar #orld #ould almost certainl& manage the globe8s "ressing "roblems more effecti3el&. the "ieces that fall bet#een the net#or5s are increasingl& shut off from the benefits of connecti3it&. %he "redominance of 2merican "o#er has man& benefits. and. globali=ation #as su"erim"osed onto a #orld #ith a single su"er"o#er. the rate at #hich ne# global "roblems are generated #ill e/ceed the rate at #hich old "roblems are fi/ed Po#er does t#o things in international "oliticsJ It enhances the ca"abilit& of a state to do things.?XPl"gOP2. %he larger the number of great "o#ers in the global s&stem. Cirector of the Institute for International !tudies at the 9ni3ersit& of California -. htt"J--boo5s.?XPdBO))%heYtrul&YdangerousY"lacesYareYtheY"o intsY#hereYtheYsubterraneanYnet#or5sYtouchYtheYmainstreamYofYglobalY"oliticsYandYec onomics. and "roblems. but. and resilient to shoc5s.google.

<ene6&elan proliferation ca&ses e@tinction %I+/ 0 (Citing 4icio da !il3a. L%he 27C8s of Nuclear Cisarmament in 4atin 2mericaM . Going nuclear is one #a&. e3er& nation from :ene=uela to North Korea is loo5ing for a #a& to constrain 2merican "o#er. North Korea. Iran. a lone hegemon is unli5el& to loo5 closel& at these "roblems . @is article is Buite alarming and one can see that he is trul& terrified at the "ossibilities. @is $Pessimistic @i"othesis ZsicR$ in3ol3es attac5s on !outh 2merican cities and the destruction that could be cause. Counterfeiting 9. %here8s effecti3el& a mar5et out there for "roliferation. then that countr& could be "ercei3ed as a threat and thus could be targeted in an international conflict if it is seen as ta5ing sides J $Dhen a countr& becomes the o#ner of a . !omalia. to the detriment of 9. man& of these threats #ould be less troublesome. or going $bad. currenc& is another. 7ut #hat if there is no 3iable grou" to Foin6 In toda&8s uni"olar #orld. national securit&. Each is better off finding other #a&s to ma5e life more difficult for Dashington . @e calls this the $>"timistic @i"othesis ZsicR$ for !outh 2merica and calculates "o"ulation death b& smo5e in the atmos"here. If a 4atin 2merican state #ere to ha3e a nuclear #ea"on.!. %he relati3el& #ea5 states #ould ha3e a choice among "otential "artners #ith #hich to all& . In fact. Raising uncertaint& about oil su""lies is "erha"s the most ob3ious method of all @ere8s the im"ortant do#nside of uni"olar globali=ation . enhancing their influence. !ecurit& "erce"tion moti3ates a countr&8s #ea"ons de3elo"ment. o""onents #ill tr& to neutrali=e "o#er. in "laces #here trade and technolog& are gro#ing. %he& "la& a different game. da !il3a states that if no !outh 2merican countr& "ossesses a nuclear #ea"on.mit. because the crac5s and seams of globali=ation are held together b& stronger ties 2/iom EJ Dithout a real chance to find useful allies to counter a su"er"o#er."artiall& connected state that #or5ed the interstices of globali=ation through the drug trade . going nuclear. counterfeiting. !o the& turn to other means. 7ut in the uni"olar #orld. In such a s&stem. because more "ressing issues are ha""ening else#here.!.edu-courses-"olitical-science-0(-?I0-nuclear-#ea"ons-in-international-"olitics"ast-"resent-and-future-s"ring-)**?-"roFects-MI%0(Q?I0!*?Qabcs. @amas. it8s harder for states to Foin together to do that. Carlos Portales discusses ho# the introduction of a ne# #ea"on to the 4atin 2merican region has a $contagious$ effectN first one countr& has it and then the rest of them struggle to obtain it . %he o3erla" of uni"olarit& #ith globali=ation ratchets u" both the su""l& and demand. In a #orld #ith multi"le great "o#ers. and terrorism Can an& single su"er"o#er monitor all the seams and bac5 alle&s of globali=ation6 @ardl&. it8s harder for troublema5ers to s"ring u". It8s a basic insight of international relations that states tr& to balance "o#er . and the 9nited !tates is bearing most of the burden . he e3en ta5es into account the "ossibilit& of the 2ma=on going u" in flames. %his un#anted attention could lead to disastrous affects for the region if an& countr& #as "ercei3ed as a threat to an& of the greater su"er"o#ers. If an& countr& is "ercei3ed to be loo5ing or de3elo"ing a ne# #ea"on. 7& contrast. b& going underground. and :ene=uela are not going to become allies an&time soon.n (Portales )I1$ ? the #orld onto 4atin 2merica. 2s a conclusion. %he& "rotect themsel3es b& Foining grou"s that can hold a hegemonic threat at ba&. In his article $ConseBuences of a Nuclear Conflict for the Climate in !outh 2merica. Consider the case of nuclear "roliferation. a #orld of se3eral great "o#ers is a more interest-rich en3ironment in #hich nations must loo5 in less ob3ious "laces to find ne# sources of ad3antage . Dithout that more attracti3e choice. #ith its o#n su""l& (states #illing to share nuclear technolog&1 and demand (states that badl& #ant a nuclear #ea"on1. he calls for countries to be "re"ared for the #orse and for the region to tr& and a3oid international conflict b& not obtaining nuclear #ea"ons. 2/iom E is a stor& about the "referred strategies of the #ea5. htt"J--oc#. >ther theorists 3ie# the de3elo"ment of nuclear #ea"ons in the region as a ris5 in that it dra#s attention from the rest of ) $los conce"tos de eBuilibrio intrarregional & de confian=a entre los "a ses de la regi. %he introduction of a ne# #ea"on limits an& arms control treaties until all countries "ossess the ne# #ea"on (Mercado 'arr nN Portales )(1. 2stro"h&sicist at the >bser3atorio Nacional de R o de 'aneiro7rasil. then no nuclear #ea"on state should "ercei3e !outh 2merica as a threat. facilitating the dar5 side of globali=ation becomes the most effecti3e means of constraining 2merican "o#er %he #orld is "a&ing a hea3& "rice for the instabilit& created b& the combination of globali=ation and uni"olarit&."df1 %here are se3eral resources that indicate that 4atin 2merican "olitical scientists #ere #orried about the effect nuclear #ea"ons #ould ha3e on the region.$ 4icio da !il3aE describes the conseBuences to !outh 2merica if there #ere to be a nuclear attac5 on North 2merica. !e3eral theorists belie3ed that the introduction of e3en the hint of a #ea"ons "rogram #ould ma5e the entire region "aranoid and further increase a state8s incenti3e to "roduce a bomb. all countries #ill follo# in order to 5ee" the balance of "o#er #ithin the region.

must ta5e into account the entire region before "ursuing "recarious "rograms.$ %he use of the #ord $their$ refers to a collecti3e identit& shared b& those in !outh 2merica. @ere #e see a sincere fear of the securit& ris5s that one countr& can "ose on an entire region. o3erreact or become hostile during the situation. Regions that are economicall& de"endent on each other.$ %herefore. !outh 2mericans countries are lum"ed together and thus. For da !il3a. increases all the other countries8 li5elihood to obsess.$ >ne countr&8s search for nuclear #ea"ons or e3en nuclear "o#er.7rasil0* region in "eril. (7ra=il and the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Dea"ons 0?1. in addition to di3erting resources indis"ensable to the economic and social "rogress of the "eo"les of the #orld. the destabili=ing effect that nuclear #ea"ons #ould ha3e on !outh 2merica alarm him enough to single out the t#o countries and negati3el& describe their search for nuclear #ea"ons as $dubious "ride. such as !outh 2merica.nuclear arsenal. #o&l' a"e a "ery ar' time s&r"i"ing if t ere e@iste' no tr&st !et#een t e nations2 . 2n arms race in the region #ould affect all countries in 4atin 2merica since such an arms race $contributes to increase both international tensions and the danger of armed conflicts. @is directl& names 2rgentina and 7ra=il for their in3ol3ement in nuclear #ea"ons "rograms and accuses them of "utting the entire region at ris5J %his sho#s the temerit& of 2rgentine and 7ra=ilian militar& #ho are in fa3our of the "ossession of nuclear #ea"ons in their res"ecti3e countriesN #e belie3e that the "rice #e #ould ha3e to "a& for the dubious "ride of belonging to the small grou" of nations in "ossession of nuclear technolog& for militar& "ur"oses is too high.$ @e continues on to as5 for $the commitment not to install an& nuclear arms in their Z!outh 2merican8sR territor& (da !il3a I+1. da !il3a calls for 4atin 2merican countries to remain disarmed so as not to "ut the E 2stro"h&sicist at the >bser3atorio Nacional de R o de 'aneiro. Militar& im"ro3ements of indi3idual countries should not be as im"ortant as the #ell being of the entire region. it also becomes a "otential target (da !il3a I+1.

E3en more alarming. %he sta5es are es"eciall& high in light of e3idence consistent #ith an emerging :ene=uelan nuclear #ea"ons "rogram. mani"ulate election la#s and e/tend his authoritarian control. . %his month8s elections. from infantr& rifles to so"histicated. :ene=uela #ill increasingl& be a global menace. @e has materiall& im"aired :ene=uela8s "ros"erous "etroleum econom& b& failing to ma5e "rudent in3estments and im"ro3ements. Ironicall&. has "ro3ed unable or un#illing to slo# Cha3e=8s descent into authoritarianism. For e/am"le. 7oli3ia. %his is 3er& nearl& the e/act o""osite of current Dhite @ouse "olic&. re"ortedl& among the largest in the #orld. :ene=uela is o"enl& hel"ing Iran e3ade international sanctions im"osed because of %ehran8s nuclear #ea"ons "rogram.!. accusations that the 9nited !tates #as engaged in such tactics #ould ha3e brought millions into the streets shouting $GanBui go homeq$ 4ast &ear. #hile using substantial oil re3enues to consolidate his hold on "o#er. some :ene=uelan businessmen and former di"lomats suggest. the situation in :ene=uela toda& is li5e a slo#- motion train #rec5. Cha3e=8s "urchases of ad3anced-model Kalashni5o3 assault rifles. closing do#n o""osition ne#s sources and e/"ro"riating the considerable assets of businesses and entre"reneurs. Castro and other leftists. under Re"ublican and Cemocratic administrations. 9nfortunatel&. 9nli5e cou"s b& "rior caudillos in the 2mericas. >ne can onl& imagine #hat he might be doing to su""ort the Me/ican drug cartels. to facilitate @e=bollah8s acti3it& in the hemis"here. %he 0?+( %reat& of %latelolco s&mboli=ed this "ercei3ed immunit&. are meant to arm cam"esino $militias$ that #ill rall& to him if :ene=uela8s militar& e3er threatens his regime. No#. "erha"s as a surrogate for Iran. )*0* ###. :ene=uela claims Iran is hel"ing de3elo" its uranium reser3es. after militar& go3ernments fell in 7ra=il and 2rgentina. Cha3e= led the charge against those in @onduras tr&ing to "re3ent its fragile democrac& (and one of the Destern @emis"here8s "oorest countries1 from being sub3erted b& Manuel ]ela&a. re"ortedl&. Nicaragua and Ecuador to su""ort leftist candidates of his il5. ma& be a last chance for change before Cha3e= com"letes his ta5eo3er.<ene6&ela )rolif DA – Lin. such as in !&ria. President >bama and other freel& elected Destern @emis"here leaders at a minimum need to tell Cha3e= clearl& that his disassembling of :ene=uela8s democrac& is unacce"table. #ith our o#n elections a""roaching in No3ember. >n the #orld stage. @e has engaged in e/tensi3e militar& coo"eration #ith Mosco#. he Buestioned the legitimac& of President Feli"e Calderon8s election in Me/ico and "urchased much of 2rgentina8s so3ereign debt. )+ national "arliamentar& elections "resent a maFor o""ortunit& for strongman @ugo Cha3e= to cement his gri" on "o#er. Colombia. are meant to arm cam"esino $militias$ that #ill rall& to him if :ene=uela8s militar& e3er threatens his regime. but the region8s nuclear-free status is toda& gra3el& threatened. therefore. camouflaging the seriousness of his "otential threat to 9. Dashington. high-end #ea"ons #ell be&ond an& concei3abl& legitimate reBuirements of :ene=uela8s militar&. For that reason. Cha3e= allo#s Iranian ban5s and other sanctioned enter"rises to use Caracas as a base for conducting business internationall& and. as it did b& Foining them against the democratic forces in @onduras. and still-democratic. Ces"ite a tradition of a free "ress and com"etiti3e "olitics. Cha3e=8s "urchases of ad3anced-model Kalashni5o3 assault rifles. 2 lac5 of international outrage is discouraging "ro-democrac& :ene=uelans across the ideological s"ectrum. or the #ea"ons ma& be destined for re3olutionar& or terrorist grou"s. @e has ad3anced his agenda since ta5ing office in 0??? b& fragmenting his domestic o""osition. including maFor acBuisitions of con3entional #ea"ons. it is hard to get >bama8s attention directed to 4atin 2merican affairs. Cha3e=8s beha3ior is increasingl& ominous. #hich ma5es it all the more frustrating.aei.!. In decades "ast. Indeed. 4atin 2merica "rided itself on a3oiding the dangers of nuclear "roliferation . %o that same end. as has been true else#here. In either case.org-article-foreign-and-defense-"olic&-regional-latin-america-the-cha3e=threat-1 !M :ene=uela8s !e"t. mani"ulating election rules. Wall C&rrent *( post&re ris. Dhile 4atin 2merican democracies ha3e refrained from doing an&thing that smac5s of $interference$ in :ene=uela8s internal affairs. %he& #orr& the& ha3e been forgotten. Cha3e=8s freBuentl& clo#nish beha3ior "rotects him. 2long #ith the refined "etroleum "roducts it su""lies %ehran. or foreign "olic& generall&. #hich attem"ts to a""ease Cha3e=. or the #ea"ons ma& be destined for re3olutionar& or terrorist grou"s. E3en more disturbing are Cha3e=8s international threats. Cha3e= has ste""ed for#ard. :ene=uelan in3ol3ement in hemis"heric drug traffic5ing should be a to" 9. Cha3e=8s gro#ing closeness #ith Russia and Iran on nuclear matters should be our greatest concern. Cha3e= has a deal #ith Russia to build a reactor in :ene=uela. a cosmo"olitan elite and e/tensi3e natural resources. 7e&ond enhancing his o#n s#aggering re"utation. 2s Fidel Castro has aged and Cuba8s relations #ith Russia ha3e faded. as #ith their cohorts in Colombia.s <ene6&elan proliferation Bolton 1? (Former 9! Ci"lomat to the 9nited Nations $%he Cha3e= %hreat$ !e"tember 0+th. securit& and to democratic societies throughout 4atin 2merica. 7ut ma5e no mista5e. the conseBuences #ould be "rofoundl& negati3e. es"eciall& b& an >bama administration that finds foreign "olic& a distraction. Cha3e= has "oured mone&--o"enl& or through sus"ected clandestine channels--into elections in Peru. su""lied and financed F2RC guerrillas #ho see5 to o3erthro# the go3ernment in neighboring. 2ll of #hich ma& signal a dangerous clandestine nuclear #ea"ons effort. a #ould-be caudillo. intelligence "riorit&. For decades. :ene=uela is increasingl& a case stud& in ho# to lose "olitical and economic freedom. if Cha3e= can intimidate his domestic o""osition. it8s clear he has sheltered. Cha3e= has felt no similar com"unction. some :ene=uelan businessmen and former di"lomats suggest. the formal agreement bet#een them signed t#o &ears ago for coo"eration in the nuclear field could easil& result in a uranium-for-nuclear5no#ho# trade. In addition.

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!.!. and the record to date should engender significant confidence.!. China #ill ha3e a more credible minimal second-stri5e ca"abilit&. a clear signal that 7eiFing does not see5 escalation to a maFor crisis on these matters .!. o"er# elming 9. there is sim"l& no "ossibilit& of reaching a brea5through in border negotiations. militar& su"eriorit&. . #ith reference to lessons learned from recent border negotiations on China’s "eri"her&J ^If there are ne3er an& concessions or com"romises. X?W00+ Deighed in the aggregate. allies in East 2sia and ma& be nearing com"letion of an intercontinental ballistic missile that can target the continental 9nited !tates. China is "re"aring to de"lo& solid-fuel ballistic missiles that can target 9. Moreo3er. Goldstein. >nce these #ea"ons are full& o"erational. None of these de3elo"ments should come as a sur"riseN 9.!. LResetting the 9!WChina !ecurit& Relationshi". Contrar& to the "erce"tion that China’s senior militar& officers are all irreconcilable ha#5s.M !ur3i3al d 3ol.. 7eiFing has not resorted to militar& inter3ention . intelligence has been follo#ing these "rograms since their ince"tion. IE no. #hether in the !outh or the East China seas. but 9. Fall. China’s rise remains a "eaceful "rocess. nuclear s&periority "ro3ides greater strategic securit& for our East 2sian allies than 9.A+F (ol"es C ina War No C ina #ar Gol'stein 11 . !taff Driter for the National Interest. after decades of research and testing. such as K&rg&=stan or %aFi5istan.Professor and Cirector of the China Maritime !tudies Institute ` 9! Na3al Dar College ZCr. one influential Peo"le’s 4iberation 2rm& Na3& (P42N1 admiral recentl& said in an inter3ie#. these "rograms should not be consi'ere' a c allenge to 9. ) d 2"rilWMa& )*00 d "". nuclear ca"abilities e3er "ro3ided for our Euro"ean allies during the Cold Dar. "erha"s b& the end of the decade. Continued moderni=ation of its nuclear forces and massi3e Buantitati3e su"eriorit& o3er China gi3e the 9nited !tates a far more ro!&st 'eterrent "osture 3is-a -3is China than it e3er "ossessed 3is-a -3is the !o3iet 9nion. nor e3en fle/ed its militar& muscles to gain ad3antage. It is also ma5ing ad3ances in de3elo"ment of its ne/t-generation submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Chinese maritime claims. Dhen dealing #ith #ea5 and occasionall& unstable states on its borders. 4e/is1 2t the strategic le3el. 2ssessing the China %hreat. not onl& is it ar' to imagine a scenario in #hich C ina #o&l' &se n&clear #eapons in res"onse to con3entional hostilities.!. 7eiFing has not resorted to a significant use of force against another state in more than three decades. are generall& being enforced b& unarmed "atrol cutters.n&clear primacy pre"ents 9oss P: (Robert !. Its de"lo&ments of troo"s as 9N "eace5ee"ers to hot s"ots such as 4ebanon and the Cemocratic Re"ublic of the Congo ha3e "la&ed a hel"ful role. Ces"ite recent Chinese bra3ado. as ha3e the counter-"irac& o"erations of its fleet in the Gulf of 2den.’) "g. ?* No #ar or escalation. 4&le '. !imilarl&. %he National Interest. retaliator& ca"abilities #ould ma5e Chinese first-use s&ici'al.

or result in some form of $Finlandi=ation. #hether 9. Professor of International Relations W @ar3ard 9ni3ersit&. . but 9.!.!. 9.!. !o :ice President 'oe 7iden has been out on the road this "ast #ee5.1 %here8s nothing reall& #rong #ith offering u" this sort of comforting rhetoric.foreign"olic&. For starters. leaders remain o3erl& sensiti3e to the "ossibilit&. #here the main concern #as not the direct sta5es of the contest but rather the need to retain a re"utation for resol3e and ca"abilit&. LCoes the 9.!.$ !uch concerns Fustified fighting so-called $credibilit& #ars$ (including :ietnam1. telling 3arious 9. !imilar fears also led the 9nited !tates to de"lo& thousands of nuclear #ea"ons in Euro"e. as a su""osed counter to !o3iet missiles targeted against our N2%> allies. lead 5e& allies to $band#agon$ #ith the !o3iet 9nion.com-"osts-)*00-0)-*I-usQcredibilit&QisQnotQourQ"roblem.$ (@e #asn8t suggesting #e8re stuc5 in a rut.!.A+F (ol"es Cre'i!ility No impact to cre'i!ility – allies #onCt a!an'on &s an' a'"ersaries canCt e@ploit it Walt 11 (!te"hen. GCI File1 2 "erennial "reoccu"ation of 9. but I83e ne3er reall& understood #h& 9!!. still need to reassure its allies6M Foreign Polic&. allies that $the 9nited !tates isn8t going an&#here.!. di"lomac& has been the "ercei3ed need to reassure allies of our reliabilit&. but sa&ing that the imminent #ithdra#al from IraB doesn8t mean a retreat to isolationism or an&thing li5e that. htt"J--#alt.!. hel". gi3en our remar5abl& secure geo"olitical "osition. of course. De should therefore ta5e our allies8 occasional hints about realignment or neutralit& #ith some s5e"ticismN the& ha3e e3er& incenti3e to tr& to ma5e us #orr& about it. 0)-I. %hroughout the Cold Dar. leaders #orried that an& loss of credibilit& might cause dominoes to fall. %he "ossibilit& that 5e& allies #ould abandon us #as almost al#ays e@aggerate'. leaders #ere so #orried about the credibilit& of our commitments to others. but in most cases little incenti3e to act&ally 'o it.!. "ledges are credible is first an' foremost a "roblem for those #ho are de"endent on 9.

!. and #e face ne# "roblems caused b& res"onses to the crisis--soaring debt and fears of inflation. !e3ere "roblems remain. Ph."olitics. but it does reflect a return to some le3el of normalc&.!. Ne#s#ee5. ho# much has the #orld reall& changed6 Dell.uni-main=.de-files-)*0)-0*-m"ie"*. Dhat #e face no# could. cautioned the !enate that $the financial crisis and global recession are li5el& to "roduce a #a3e of economic crises in emerging-mar5et nations o3er the ne/t &ear. 2t his confirmation hearing in Februar&.C. L%he !ecrets of !tabilit&M. Cennis 7lair. Faith in the 2merican model had colla"sed. L7RICs and 9.FF1 In the economic dimension. 4e/is1 >ne &ear ago. 2le/ander 7rand is 4ecturer and Post-Coc Researcher at the Ce"artment of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Main=.. %hus. Dorld#ide trade #as shrin5ing to a degree not seen since the 0?E*s. %he "redictions of economic and "olitical colla"se ha3e not materiali=ed at all. In a #idel& cited essa& that a""eared in %he 2tlantic this Ma&.-)*0). signal a fundamental brea5 #ith the established "atterns ofS as&mmetrical economic relations bet#een the 9. In terms of monetar& and currenc& "olic&. Not the financial industr&. #hich had fueled a great e/"ansion of ca"italism and trade across the #orld. and 4atin 2merica and hence. be #orse than the Great Ce"ression. #ith cascading failures in sector after sector. the 3er& "henomenaS that ha3e ca"tured the attention of anal&sts recentl& W Chinese FCI targeted to resource and infrastructure "roFects.!. >nce-roaring emerging mar5ets li5e China.!.!. >ne &ear later.$ >thers "redicted that these economic shoc5s #ould lead to "olitical instabilit& and 3iolence in the #orst-hit countries. director of national intelligence. "ainful bust. 4atin 2merican states are still b& and large de"endent on their S e/"orts to the 9. . S the gro#th of trade 3olumes bet#een China and 42 as #ell as 7ra=il and its regional neighborsS still do not. in essence and so far. #roteJ $%he con3entional #isdom among the elite is still that the current slum" 8cannot be as bad as the Great Ce"ression. former chief economist of the International Monetar& Fund. 2nd that rebound has been so ra"id that e3en the shre#dest obser3ers remain "u==led. countr& after countr&. Foreign Polic& ran a co3er stor& "redicting serious unrest in se3eral emerging mar5ets. India. and no# #e8re bac5 to business as usual6$ %his re3i3al did not ha""en because mar5ets managed to stabili=e themsel3es on their . S inVuence in the region.!.!. not ca"italism. and 7ra=il #ere sin5ing.Main= Pa"ers on International and Euro"ean Politics (MPIEP1 Pa"er No. htt"J--international. 9ni3ersit& of Erfurt. 2 5e& measure of fear and fragilit& is the abilit& of "oor and unstable countries to borro# mone& on the debt mar5ets. Dolfgang Muno is :isiting Professor of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Erfurt.!. $%he Buestion I ha3e at the bac5 of m& head is 8Is that it68 $ sa&s Charles Ka&e. !usan McE#en-Fial is 4ecturer at the Ce"artment of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Main=. >f one thing e3er&one #as sureJ nothing #ould e3er be the same again. the 4atin 2mericaN although 7ra=ilian andS Chinese acti3ism is surging. the 9. 0)-)0. the ne# 9..S des"ite the acti3ities of traditional as&mmetricall& "atterned relationshi" still continues to e/istJ Dhile Latin America on t e # ole is not t e *2(2Cs most important tra'ing partner. be the& intentionall& targeted at achie3ing certain outcomes or not. !ome regional ban5s ha3e gone bust. the strong 9. #as crumbling. Economy is resilient MA5A9IA 0 (Fareed. @egemon&J %heoretical ReVections on !hifting Po#er Patterns and Em"irical E3idence from 4atin 2mericaM.A+F (ol"es Economy Latin America isnCt important to *( economic primacy. 2ll this doesn8t add u" to a reco3er& &et. Bran' et al 1. as the main source of FCI Vo#s to 7RIC states throughout the region."df. li5e high unem"lo&ment in the Dest. 2nd she #as hardl& alone. 7ut o3erall.$ @illar& Clinton endorsed this grim 3ie#. things loo5 nothing li5e the& did in the 0?E*s. and technolog&--#ere being called into Buestion. if &ou count Merrill 4&nch1.8 %his 3ie# is #rong. (*.. in fact. 2ll the certainties of the age of -globali=ation--about the 3irtues of free mar5ets. %he sameS is true for the 9. %he financial industr& had crumbled.g. !imon 'ohnson. it is still at a com"arati3el& lo# le3el. Dhat is more. Dall !treet is home to t#o fe#er in3estment ban5s (three. not globali=ation. the co-head of Darburg Pincus. "osition in terms ofS a dominance of the dollar throughout 4atin 2merica remains intact so far as #ell . %here #as some turmoil in Moldo3a and (entirel& unrelated to the financial crisis1 in Iran. the 9. the #orld seemed as if it might be coming a"art . 2ndrea Ribeiro @offmann is 4ecturer at the Dill& 7randt !chool of Public Polic&. 7ra=il and China themsel3es. Pundits #hose bearishness had been 3indicated "redicted #e #ere doomed to a long. $De had this huge crisis. in Political !cience W @ar3ard 9ni3ersit& and Editor W Ne#s#ee5 International. 2dm. %he global financial s&stem. intensiTed economic e/change bet#een e. trade. !o consider thisJ the so3ereign bonds of tottering Pa5istan ha3e returned 0+X "ercent so far this &ear. still is 3er& im"ortant for 4atin 2merica. mar5et W either hea3il& (Me/ico1 or to still im"ressi3e degrees. %his meansS that Tscal and monetar& "olicies on behalf of the 9nited !tates still e/ert considerable inVuenceS #ithin the region.

and confidence is a 3er& "o#erful economic force . It8s true that the massi3e state inter3entions of the "ast &ear ma& be fueling some ne# bubblesJ the chea" cash and go3ernment guarantees "ro3ided to ban5s. go3ernments. consumers. and the tech-bubble colla"se of )***. each reinforcing the other and each historical in nature. Get these rallies also demonstrate the return of confidence. ha3ing learned the lessons of the Great Ce"ression. com"anies. %imes are still tough. and consumers ha3e fueled some irrational e/uberance in stoc5 and bond mar5ets. %he #orld toda& is characteri=ed b& three maFor forces for stabilit&. Dhen 'ohn Ma&nard Ke&nes described his o#n "rescri"tions for economic gro#th. %he current global economic s&stem is inherentl& more resilient than #e thin5. It is the same reason that #e #eathered the stoc5-mar5et crash of 0?X(. the recession of 0??). the 2sian crisis of 0??(. and com"anies see5ing ris5 and "rofit.o#n. (Dhether the& made ne# mista5es in the "rocess remains to be seen. he belie3ed go3ernment action could "ro3ide onl& a tem"orar& fi/ until the real motor of the econom& started cran5ing again--the animal s"irits of in3estors. Rather. I belie3e ther e8s a fundamental reason #h& #e ha3e not faced global colla"se in the last &ear. but things are no#here near as bad as in the 0?E*s. 7& massi3el& e/"anding state su""ort for the econom&--through central ban5s and national treasuries--the& buffered the #orst of the damage . the Russian default of 0??X. . #hen go3ernments "la&ed a tin& role in national economies. though. 7e&ond all this.1 %he e/tensi3e social safet& nets that ha3e been established across the industriali=ed #orld also cushioned the "ain felt b& man&. #ere determined not to re"eat the same mista5es once this crisis hit.

#ired. but life #ould go on./ 4 ZLDe8re 2ll Gonna CieqM. . Ce"ression. the& #ould "robabl& re"resent an ada"tation.A+F (ol"es En"ironment No e@tinction Easter!roo.man& scenarios sim"l& don8t measure u". but considering that the bios"here has sur3i3ed ice ages.the end of human ci3ili=ation . 2 single nuclear bomb ignited b& terrorists. #rote Remembrance of Things Past #hile l&ing in bed. #hich has become 0* times more "re3alent in Destern nations in the "ost#ar era.*(-doomsda&. #ould be a#ful be&ond #ords. as miserable as he #as. 7ut Marcel Proust. htt"J--###. for e/am"le. En3ironmental colla"se might ma5e "arts of the globe un"leasant. a "ossibilit& that Petrane5 suggested in a doomsda& tal5 at the %echnolog& Entertainment Cesign conference in )**). but from the stand"oint of the future. might gro# so #ides"read that 3ast numbers of "eo"le #ould refuse to get out of bed.html6"gO0Pto"icOPto"icQsetOR If #e8re tal5ing about doomsda& . Peo"le and machines might con3erge in #a&s that &ou and I #ould find ghastl&. it #o&l'n7t !e t e final c&rtain.com-#ired-archi3e-00.

@o#e3er.ey to *( Hegemony Walton > (Cale C. dra# do#n its militar& "o#er. %rade routes need not be "oliced b& a single dominant "o#erN the international econom& is com"le/ and resilient. "o"ulation.!.org-u-smilitar&-"o#er-"reeminence-for-#hat-"ur"ose-1 Most in Dashington still embraces the notion that 2merica is . Man& factors ha3e contributed to the dramatic decline in the number of #ars bet#een nation-statesN it is unrealistic to e/"ect that a ne# s"asm of global conflict #ould eru"t if the 9nited !tates #ere to modestl& refocus its efforts.A+F (ol"es Glo!al Hegemony Latin America not . straddle trade routes. none of these areas has the com"elling combination of #ealth. . %he tangible benefits of all this militar& s"ending flo# dis"ro"ortionatel& to this tin& corner of the 9nited !tates #hile the schlubs in fl&-o3er countr& "ic5 u" the tab. %he& ad3ance arguments diametricall& at odds #ith the "rimacist consensus.C/9C)4K"NmGr?RR)e'9l+#@GPhlOenPsaOaPeiOE%Q49])G2ei7&#GtE. X htt"J--boo5s. but hardl& com"arable to the threat "osed b& a globe-straddling !o3iet 9nion armed #ith thousands of nuclear #ea"ons. and in the securit& of their res"ecti3e regions. Heg 'oesnCt sol"e #ar2 )re!le 1? W director of foreign "olic& studies at the Cato Institute (Christo"her. ho#e3er. Militar& Po#erJ Preeminence for Dhat Pur"ose6M 2ugust )*0*. Dalton H 4ecturer in International Relations and !trategic !tudies at the 9ni3ersit& of Reading W LGeo"olitics and Great Po#ers in the %#ent&-First Centur&M. %he "eo"le here ha3e gro#n accustomed to li3ing at the center of the earth. and indeed. Central 2sia. and call on other countries to "la& a larger role in their o#n defense. but great "o#er com"etition in central Eurasia #ill be of a different character than on its eastern rim. It is fran5l& absurd that #e s"end more toda& to fight >sama bin 4aden and his tin& band of murderous thugs than #e s"ent to face do#n 'ose"h !talin and Chairman Mao. much of the #orld’s energ& reser3es are contained in the Middle East and Central 2sia. 2 number continue to do so toda&. and strategic geogra"h& that #ould ma5e them li5el& arenas for great "o#er com"etition #ith higher sta5es. "g. the foreign "olic& establishment in Dashington has no interest in e/"loring them.google. Islamic e/tremists are scar&. 7ut #hile there are credible alternati3es to the 9nited !tates ser3ing in its current dual role as #orld "oliceman . and the Middle East W contain im"ortant resources. !u""l& disru"tions are li5el& to be tem"orar&. 4atin 2merica. htt"J--###.armed social #or5er. !ome scholars. L9.cato-at-libert&.Cg7gP3edO*CEEg+2E#2gk 3Oone"agePBOlatin_)*americaPfOfalse1 !M Man& of the countries in other regions of the #orld W sub-!aharan 2frica. the #orld’s indis"ensable nation. of the uni3erse. or are other#ise strategicall& note-#orth&. and fore3er #ill be.com-boo5s6 idOu3GKm&5(%bgCP"gOP2()Pl"gOP2()PdBOGeo"oliticsYandYGreatYPo#ersYinYtheY%#ent &-FirstYCentur&PsourceOblPotsO/DDI>ab-?BPsigOR. Buestioned the logic of hegemonic stabilit& theor& from the 3er& beginning. >b3iousl&. Central 2merica. and the costs of mitigating their effects should be borne b& those #ho stand to lose H or gain H the most.

acsla#. the Fourne& to full& reali=ing human rights is a #or5-in-"rogress. or immigration raids1. Muslim. @uman rights include the right to be free from torture or cruel. inhuman or degrading treatment. !outh 2sian. and &et ineBualities "ersist in access to housing. and &et the 9nited !tates failed to adeBuatel& guarantee these rights in the aftermath of @urricane Katrina. and those #ho a""ear 2rab. @uman rights include the rights to emergenc& shelter. and racial and ethnic "rofiling has been used unfairl& to target 2frican 2mericans. and #ater. moral authorit& to lead b& e/am"le. and &et the 9nited !tates has committed such acts in the name of counterterrorism efforts .M >ctober )**X. 4atinos. as #ell as securit& of "erson. air"ort screening. food. and health care. @uman rights include the right to eBualit& in the a""lication of la# enforcement measures.!. htt"J--###. and &et a "a& ga" "ersists bet#een female and male #or5ers. @uman rights include the right to eBualit& of o""ortunit&. education."df1 E3en so. there remains a ga" bet#een the human rights ideals that the 9nited !tates "rofesses and its actual domestic "ractice. resulting in both a ga" in credibilit& and a #ea5ening of 9. 2merican Constitution !ociet& for 4a# P Public Polic& L@uman Rights at @omeJ 2 Comestic Polic& 7lue"rint for the Ne# 2dministration. #e must #or5 W through smart. . but to ma5e "rogress.A+F (ol"es H&man 9ig ts + ere are tons of alternati"e ca&salities t at #ill contin&e to &n'ermine &man rig ts )o#ell/ 8 W 2ssociate Professor of 4a# at Fordham 4a# !chool (Catherine Po#ell. and &et there are gross racial dis"arities in the a""lication of the death "enalt&. Fobs. "rinci"led "olicies that ad3ance the abilit& of the 9nited !tates to li3e u" to its o#n highest ideals.org-files-C_)*Po#ell_)*7lue"rint. Certainl&. or immigrant (#hether through traffic sto"s. @uman rights include the right to eBual "a& and gender eBualit&.

LDorst-Casing and 7est-Casing IranMN htt"J--nationalinterest. li5e other #ar-"romoting "ieces.com-articles-*. ne3er "ro3ides an& anal&sis to su""ort the oft-re"eated notion. that is #hat a classified intelligence document mentioned in an 42 %imes re"ort states. 9! officials sa& the& ha3e not seen e3idence that has caused them to significantl& re3ise that FudgmentMN htt"J--###.S S 2 highl& classified 9! intelligence assessment circulated among "olic&ma5ers earl& last &ear largel& affirms the 3ie#. .%he 42 %imes goes on to claim that the most recent re"ort. Iran #o&l'nCt !e aggressi"e if t ey got n&clear #eapons. #hich re"resents the consensus of 0+ 9! intelligence agencies.0?. originall& made in )**(.(0)-))-00. 7oth re"orts. (L2nd #hile Iran continues to enrich uranium at lo# le3els. 7ut actuall& his "iece ignores the rich and e/tensi3e bod& of strateg& and doctrine de3elo"ed during the Cold Dar that e/"lains things li5e escalation dominance and that underlies Dalt8s correct obser3ation about #hat nuclear #ea"ons can and cannot do. #hich Kroenig himself re"eats. @erman Kahn. Dalt notes that nuclear #ea"ons sim"l& don8t #or5 that #a&.&netne#s. Rather than anal&sis. 5no#n as national intelligence estimates. #ould be rolling o3er in his si=able gra3e if he could see #hat "asses for anal&sis in Kroenig8s "iece.html1 2s the 9! and Israel "re"are for the >bama-Netan&ahu summit it a""ears that Dashington is tr&ing to ma5e it 3er& clearJ %ehran is not currentl& see5ing to build a nuclear bomb.E*(. 9! officials sa& the& ha3e not seen e3idence that has caused them to significantl& re3ise that Fudgment. but t at it as not so&g t to 'o so. )illar 11. a 3isiting "rofessor at Georgeto#n 9ni3ersit& for securit& studies and a member of the Center for Peace and !ecurit& !tudies. Paul Pillar is a )X-&ear 3eteran of the Central Intelligence 2genc&.S 2nd #hile Iran continues to enrich uranium at lo# le3els.(E. that "ossession of nuclear #ea"ons #ould someho# lead to Iran beha3ing more aggressi3el& in its region e3en if it ne3er actuall& fired the #ea"ons ..**. the Cold Dar8s foremost guru of escalation.*.4-. I ha3e e/amined this "articular Buestion #ith regard to Iran. conclude that Iran halted efforts to de3elo" and build a nuclear #arhead in )**E.org-blog-"aul-"illar-#orst-casing-best-casing-iran-+E*(.FF1 Kroenig8s article. Kroenig im"arts a "atina of Cold Dar res"ectabilit& to some of his assertions b& stating that Iran and Israel lac5 man& of the LsafeguardsM that 5e"t the 9nited !tates and the 9!!R out of a nuclear e/change. indicates that Iran is "ursuing research that could "ut it in a "osition to build a #ea"on.A+F (ol"es Iran E@pansionism Iran not p&rs&ing n&clear #eapons LNE+ 1. the notion of greater Iranian aggressi3eness is su""orted b& nothing more than a 3ague sense that someho# those nu5es ought to ma5e such a difference . >r at least.

and other commentators. Its share of #orld electricit& . it has long been in decline in the face of rising "ublic o""osition and increasing reluctance of go3ernments and utilities to finance its enormous construction costs . !uddenl& nuclear "o#er is loo5ing better. seeing nuclear "o#er gro# b& (* "er cent o3er the ne/t )I &ears. LNuclear Po#er 8Can8t !to" Climate ChangeMN htt"J--###. German&.org-headlines*. as it #as a half-centur& ago #hen nuclear technolog& #as first ad3anced. . #roteJ $Ci3ili=ation is in imminent danger and has to use nuclear . #hich e/ists to s"read the "eaceful use of the atom. staff#riter for the Inde"endent (Geoffre&. 2 lead editorial headlined L%he Greening of Nuclear Po#erM (I-0E-*+1 o"enedJS Not so man& &ears ago. FF1 Nuclear ad3ocates in go3ernment and the nuclear industr& are engaged in a massi3e. and onl& one is being built in Destern Euro"e . 4ad& %hatcher8s former PR chief.S %he I2E2 re"ort considers t#o scenarios. hea3il& financed dri3e to re3i3e atomic "o#er in the 9nited !tatesH#ith most of the mainstream media either not Buestioning or actuall& assisting in the "romotion. nuclear "o#er emits no carbon dio/ide. #ith the 0?(? %hree Mile Island and 0?X+ Chernob&l nuclear "lant accidents.FF1 Nuclear "o#er cannot sol3e global #arming. a3ailable. nuclear energ& continues to decline. .#ho said that onl& a massi3e e/"ansion of nuclear "o#er as the #orld8s main energ& source could "re3ent climate change o3er#helming the globe.commondreams. uncritical e&e on the nuclear industr&’s claims that led an earlier generation of 2mericans to belie3e atomic energ& #ould be too chea" to meter.S LDith a 3er& fe# notable e/ce"tions. %he %imes has sho#ered readers #ith a 3ariet& of "ieces ad3ocating a nuclear re3i3al.S 9nli5e fossil fuels. Climate change #ould doom the "lanet before nuclear "o#er could sa3e it .S Professor 4o3eloc5."ublished to celebrate &esterda&8s I*th anni3ersar& of nuclear "o#er contradicts a recent surge of su""ort for the atom as the ans#er to global #arming . such as the 4os 2ngeles %imes. *+-)+-*.e3en under the most fa3orable circumstances.n&clear po#er canCt act&ally sol"e Grossman ?8. N&clear po#er canCt sol"e glo!al #arming fast eno&g Lean ?E.htm. the Netherlands and !#eden ha3e all "ledged to "hase out e/isting "lants.no# or suffer the "ain soon to be inflicted b& our outraged "lanet. re3eals in a ne# re"ort that it could not gro# fast enough o3er the ne/t decades to slo# climate change . but ha3e no# been rebutted b& the most authoritati3e organi=ation on the matter.!.S 2lan . @o#e3er.-*+)+-*I. . energ& source . %his is because the #orld #ould ha3e to be so "ros"erous to afford the e/"ansions that traditional #a&s of generating electricit& from fossil fuels #ould ha3e gro#n e3en faster. Karl Grossman is a Professor of Fournalism at the !tate 9ni3ersit& of Ne# Gor5 College at >ld Destbur& (*)-*0-)**X.!. L%he nuclear industr&’s "ublic relations effort has im"ro3ed o3er the "ast I* &ears.. the 9.the one safe.S %he re"ort . dominated b& fears of tight energ& su""lies and global #arming. 7elgium. #ho feared the "otential for catastro"hic accidents and longterm radiation contamination. it made an e3en smaller relati3e contribution to combating climate change under the I2E28s most fa3orable scenario.org-e/tra-online-articles-mone&-is-thereal-green-"o#er-. media ha3e turned the same sort of blind.A+F (ol"es N&clear )o#er + eir e"i'ence is !ase' in me'ia !ias an' money. #hile the natural s5e"ticism of re"orters to#ard cor"orate claims seems to ha3e disa""eared. a media leader in "ushing the technolog&.$ S @is comments #ere bac5ed b& !ir 7ernard Ingham. all marbled #ith omissions and untruths. Mean#hile. 7ut this is a ne# era.the creator of the Gaia theor& . #hich colla"sed in the 9. LMone& Is the Real Green Po#erJ %he hoa/ of eco-friendl& nuclear energ&MN htt"J--fair. S %he International 2tomic Energ& 2genc& (I2E21. In the first.S %hat surge #as "ro3o5ed b& an article in %he Inde"endent last month b& Professor 'ames 4o3eloc5 .S No ne# atomic "o#er station has been ordered in the 9! for a Buarter of a centur& .M S %he Ne# Gor5 %imes continues to be.M comments Michael Mariotte.dro"s from its current 0+ "er cent to 0) "er cent b& )*E*. nuclear energ& #as a hobgoblin to en3ironmentalists. the international bod& set u" to "romote atomic energ& admits toda&. a long-time nuclear su""orter. #ith no ne# stations built be&ond those alread& "lanned.and thus its relati3e contribution to fighting global #arming . e/ecuti3e director of the Nuclear Information and Resource !er3ice.in Finland.S !ur"risingl&. the main cause of climate change.

told %he Inde"endent on !unda& last nightJ $!a&ing that nuclear "o#er can sol3e global #arming b& itself is #a& o3er the to". an I2E2 nuclear energ& anal&st.$ 7ut he added that closing e/isting nuclear "o#er stations #ould ma5e tac5ling climate change harder.S .McConald.

%he Ne# $Great Game$ and Perils From It %he ne# $Great Game8s$ begun. )**) summit meeting in @a3ana attended b& the 9! and Russia along #ith host countr& Cuba. and $"ea5 oil$ near or a""roaching. ecological rec5lessness. !outh Korea and %ai#an challenging Russia and China #ith toda&8s #ea"ons and technolog& on both sides ma5ing earlier ones loo5 li5e to&s. #ould ha3e sur3i3ed. starting #ith oil and #here most of it is located in the Middle East and Central 2sia. but this time the sta5es are greater than e3er as e/"lained abo3e. . and defend the maritime trade routes o3er #hich it tra3els. the 9! hea3il& de"endent on im"orts.com-general(+--resrouce. %his time. and the "lanet8s abilit& to sustain life front and center. but Dorld Dar I: #ill be fought #ith stic5s and stones. It8s "lanet earth #ith sur3i3al of all life on it issue number one t#ice o3er. it8s more dire than that. $securit&$ for 2merica means assuring a sustainable su""l& of #hat #e can8t do #ithout. reno#ned author and research associate at the Center for Research on Globali=ation. %he threat is real and once nearl& ha""ened during the Cuban Missile Crisis in >ctober. For the first time. De later learned a miracle sa3ed us at the . %hat means energ&8s "artnered #ith "redator& Ne# Dorld >rder globali=ation. It includes #aging #ars to get it. Resources and #ars for them means militarism is increasing. 'ul& )**(.A+F (&stains Dil Depen'ence Dil 'epen'ence ca&ses e@tinction Len'man/ > (!te"hen. Central to its "lan is first controlling essential resources e3er&#here. "rotect it. there8s no second chance the #a& Einstein e/"lained after the atom #as s"lit. militarism.htm1 bbb%his card edited to remo3e holocaust rhetoric #hich #e do not endorse Dith the #orld8s energ& su""lies finite. @is famous Buote on future #ars #as J $I 5no# not #ith #hat #ea"ons Dorld Dar III #ill be fought. "eace declining. LResource Dars . @ad he done it. if at all. and satellite states li5e 'a"an.*th anni3ersar& >ctober. Ce3astation #as a3oided onl& because !o3iet submarine ca"tain :asil& 2r5hi"o3 countermanded his order to fire nuclear-ti""ed tor"edos #hen Russian submarines #ere attac5ed b& 9! destro&ers near Kenned&8s $Buarantine$ line. #ars. 0?+). htt"J--###.Can De !ur3i3e %hem6M. 7ritain. %he&8d better be because be&ond the "oint of no return.rense. it8s the 9! #ith hel" from Israel. or at least a big "art of it.$ 9nder a #orst case scenario. at an& cost . if an&one8s "a&ing attention. and no# an e/tremist 9! administration #illing to ris5 2rmageddon for #orld dominance. #e #ere told ho# close #e came to nuclear 2rmageddon. 2t sta5e is more than oil. %he old one lasted nearl& 0** &ears "itting the 7ritish em"ire against %sarist Russia #hen the issue #asn8t oil. onl& our imagination can s"eculate #hat might ha3e follo#ed and #hether "lanet earth. %here ma& be nothing left but resilient beetles and bacteria in the #a5e of a nuclear Zcatastro"heR meaning e3en a ne# stone age is #a& in the future. the Dest.

might be related to conscious "ublic di"lomac& efforts as #ell as to an e/ternall& ascribed attracti3eness . is. 7ush led him to Me/ico. 0+ In line #ith an emerging strateg&. @egemon&J %heoretical ReVections on !hifting Po#er Patterns and Em"irical E3idence from 4atin 2merica.de-files-)*0)-0*-m"ie"*. in !e"tember )*00 China. @egemon&J %heoretical ReVections on !hifting Po#er Patterns and Em"irical E3idence from 4atin 2merica. @u 'intao has 3isited the continent four times. 4ecturer and Post-Coc Researcher at the Ce"artment of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Main=. Moreo3er.A+F (ol"es (oft )o#er *nite' (tates soft po#er in Latin America empirically fails Bran' et al 1. so it might be more elucidating to loo5 for the le3el of attracti3eness ascribed to the 9.de-files-)*0)-0*-m"ie"*. #hich #as seen as a s&mbolic 3isit sho#ing high esteem for 4atin 2merica and #as the Trst of se3eral 3isits in the region (Crandall )**X1. L7RICs and 9. )*0)-*. 'ohannes Gutenberg 9ni3ersit&. interest faded and other "roblems and regions #ere of higher "riorit&. !usan McE#an-Fial. but #as onl& a tem"orar& e/ce"tion. !"anish-s"ea5ing tele3ision. For e/am"le. W 2le/ander.!. In terms of "ublic di"lomac&. Me/ico (N2F%21 and Port of !"ain and Cartagena (!ummit of the 2mericas1 Fust 3isited Me/ico in )**? and 7ra=il. !ince @u’s "romotion of soft "o#er in )**(.unimain=.!. 2le/ander. since 9. ai 'in"ing 3isited the region in )**? and )*00. 4ecturer at the Dill& 7randt !chool of Public Polic&. #here he declared a ne# era of L"artnershi" among eBualsM #as #idel& esteemed in 4atin 2merica. Chinese leaders had 3isited 0? 4atin 2merican countries and (. )*0)-*. Google !cholar.M Main= Pa"ers on International and Euro"ean Politics.!. htt"sJ--international. China’s soft "o#er in 4atin 2merica remains limited des"ite China’s efforts to raise its cultural "roTle in 4atin 2merica due to language and distance issues. #hile his assumed successor. Main=J Chair of International Relations."df1--@24 !oft Po#er C&namics L!oft "o#erM.unimain=. !usan McE#an-Fial. Dolfgang Muno. in the e&es of 4atin 2merican societies. not at the forefront of institutional inno3ation in the region. 9ni3ersit& of Erfurt. China had established o3er )* Confucius institutes throughout the region to "romote the stud& of Chinese language and culture (@anban )*0)1. :isiting Professor of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Erfurt. as described abo3e."olitics. in Februar& )**0. 4ecturer at the Dill& 7randt !chool of Public Polic&. Google !cholar. 4ecturer at the Ce"artment of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Main=. Lsoft "o#erM in the region toda& might not be directl& related to 9. and 2ndrea Ribeiro @offmann. @is Lcharm offensi3esM at the !ummit )**? in Port of !"ain. and 2ndrea Ribeiro @offmann. the 9.. 'ohannes Gutenberg 9ni3ersit&. Chinese leaders ha3e e/"anded their ties #ith 4atin 2merica.."olitics. 9ni3ersit& of Erfurt.!. the s"onsoring of student e/change "rograms and its general image of a successful de3elo"ing countr&. b& )*00. has not "rioriti=ed its outreach to 4atin 2merica throughout the last decade. began to offer scholarshi"s for students to stud& . Curing his time in "o#er.!... *nite' (tates soft po#er terminally &ns&staina!le. Chile and El !al3ador in March )*00. 4ecturer and Post-Coc Researcher at the Ce"artment of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Main=. besides summit meetings in GuadalaFara. in "artnershi" #ith the >2!. )*0)."df1--@24 2gain. Dolfgang Muno.C ina an' Bra6ilian soft po#er as fille' t e gap Bran' et al 1.E1. Chinese leaders and their 4atin 2merican counter"arts ha3e often e/changed 3isits during the "ast ten &ears. (7rand. to sa& the least. )*0). 2dditionall&. foreign and regional "olicies or resulting from such "olicies in the Trst "lace . 7ut soon. :isiting Professor of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Erfurt. For e/am"le.!. htt"sJ--international. Chinese scholars and ofTcials ha3e debated the e/act deTnitions of soft "o#er. China is tr&ing to build u" its image through the establishment of language institutes. the 9. >bama. 2ll the same. 4ecturer at the Ce"artment of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Main=. Main=J Chair of International Relations. it seems interesting to loo5 for acti3ities of China and 7ra=il in this regard.!. %he Trst 3isit abroad b& then-President George D. 7& )**X.M Main= Pa"ers on International and Euro"ean Politics. (L7RICs and 9. 2side from this. 4atin 2merican leaders had 3isited China ('iang )*00J .

1. the central "illars of 7ra=ilian foreign "olic& are a "reference of di"lomatic settlement of dis"utes. %he "ercentage in 7ra=il #as E(_ (PED )*001. It also funded the >2!-C2RIC>M Electoral >bser3ation in @aiti (C2RIC>M )*001. dis"ro"ortional and as&mmetric "osition of Destern "o#ers in general. 2 countr& such as Me/ico #hich does not beneTt as much economicall& from the relationshi" onl& had a fa3orabilit& rating to#ards China of E?_ in both )*0* and )*00 (ibid.+*+1 to )*** (0. the 7ra=ilian leadershi" "roFect is based on a com"etition #ith the 9.N the "roblem is distributi3e rather than substanti3e. in "articular. France and Russia (IEE )*0)1. !inga"ore. 2s Ellis argues.. Ne# ]ealand. legitimate international order . the substanti3e "riorities of the 7ra=ilian foreign "olic& are not that di3ergent from that of the 9. 7urges deTnes 7ra=ilian acti3ism as a leadershi" "roFect based on the conce"t of consensual hegemon&. engaging in a "rocess of dialogue and interaction that causes the subordinate "arties to a""ro"riate and absorb the substance and reBuisites of the hegemon& as their o#nM. and "ro"osals to e/"lore it more thoroughl& are being currentl& discussed.!. e/changes and immigration to and from 4atin 2merica remain limited for a number of reasons.!. 7ra=il. @o#e3er. democratic. %o the e/tent that the criticism of the contem"orar& status Buo is based on the claim of the unfair. and Pa5istan (ibid. Ka=a5hstan. If 7ra=il #anted to "resent itself as a ri3al to the 9. and the 9. Peru and :ene=uela a""ro3ed destinations for tourism (7liss )**?1. in com"arison to the outVo# of 4atin 2merican students to the 9. 2cademic e/change is also common both at the student and staff le3el. es"eciall& in com"arison #ith the 9.!. .in China. or hegemon&.(. %he data for 4atin 2merican immigrants in 7ra=il sho# an increase from 0?+* (+E. it has contributed to the "ercei3ed legitimac& of its hegemon& in !outh 2merica. In this sense.. dis"utes ha3e arisen in countries such as Peru o3er com"ensation and the en3ironment (7liss )**?J +01. unli5e the 9. . role in the region. %he data "resented in this "a"er is in line #ith the argument ad3anced b& authors #or5ing on 7ra=ilian leadershi" that the countr& cannot "erform the traditional. #hich corres"onds to a large e/tent #ith the conce"t of soft "o#er as deTned in this "a"er. fulTlls the ga" to understand 7ra=ilian role in 4atin 2merica. !outh 2merican "residents and lo#er ran5s 3isit themsel3es regularl& both bilaterall& and multilaterall& in the conte/t of Mercosur and 9N2!9R for instance.!. or rather. In terms of international education. follo#ed b& Paragua&ans (0X. IE_ "olled in Me/ico sa# China as either ha3ing re"laced or #ill re"lace the 9. !outh 2merica. 2ccording to the China !cholarshi" Council. !ome le3erage of militar& and economic "o#er contributes to su""ort that claim. It seems that so far.!. and in light of the e/"erience of de3elo"ed countries . the "attern remained stable o3er the &ears. For e/am"le. %his lag in soft "o#er has been ac5no#ledged b& Chinese 4atin 2merican e/"erts (!un )*0*1. the res"ect of international la#.. i. a cultural engagement abroad characteri=ed b& more substance. no 4atin 2merican countr& a""ears on the list as a "rimar& origin for foreign students in China. 2s for state 3isits. 0+ !ee Glaser-Mur"h& ()**?1 for a discussion on this subFect. but so far. broadcasting throughout the region. @o#e3er.. counter"arts for !outh 2merican students. so3ereignt&. %he content of this soft "o#er strateg& does not include traditional cultural "olicies such as media and the creation of cultural institutes abroad. %hailand.!.!.!. it has Fust established a ne# "rogram out of Dashington called 2mericas No#.!.. and China. the number is e/tremel& high.1. the China !cholarshi" Council has recruiting ofTces throughout 4atin 2merica (7liss )**?1. Russia. o3er as a global su"er"o#er. !outh Korea. 2 combination of mostl& soft "o#er #ith institutional acti3ism seems to sustain the 7ra=ilian claim for leadershi" ._1. Canada. In the Pe# Global 2ttitudes !ur3e& of )*00. but there is a certain Vo# gi3en better structural conditions.. (F% )*0)b1.?_ in )*00. India. 2s for the nationalities. as5ing if Lthe international insertion of the countr& #ould not beneTt from -as an additional element. China still "ales in com"arison. E/ce"t for 7ra=il’s resistance against conce"ts regarding res"onsibilit& to "rotect and "re3enti3e inter3ention. this anal&sis #ill consider institutional "o#er as se"arate from soft "o#er. %he 7ra=ilian di"lomat Edgar %elles Ribeiro argues for a re3ision of the lac5 of a more strategic cultural foreign "olic&. %he main sources for foreign students in China in )**? #as !outh Korea. %he "romotion of democrac& and human rights has become a "riorit& since democrati=ation and central to the "resent administration of Cilma Roussef. in )*** the Trst grou" #as of 2rgentinean origin ()0. Dhere China has been more successful is the general "erce"tion that China #ill be a great "o#er. 2ustralia. "ublic "erce"tion is mi/ed. In addition. the to" destinations for Chinese students in )**? #ere the 9. %he soft "o#er a""roach "ursued b& 7ra=il so far has consisted rather in the 3er& "romotion of a debate on the legitimac& of the international order and the demand for a more consensual. China has also established CC%: in !"anish.!.!.I)X1.K. in #hich Lthe central idea is the construction of a structural 3ision. or "erha"s China in the future. China has also made countries such as Cuba.+_1 and 9rugua&ans (0+ _1.. and this inconsistenc& might undermine the soft "o#er a""roach. #ithout rel&ing on force (7urges )**XJ +I1. %hus. @ence. 0(7RICs and 9. neither China nor 4atin 2merica constitute a to" "riorit& for students of these t#o regions. non-inter3ention and multilateralism. these are actuall& Buite Destern "illars and "riorities. Chile. do#n from I)_ in )*0* (PED )*001.1 to 0??0 (00X. including distance and lac5 of historical connections. %his has been seen b& some di"lomats as a handica".!. continuit& and com"rehensi3enessM (Ribeiro )*00J XX1. %he Chinese tend to fold "ublic di"lomac& into soft "o#er (see !hambaugh )*001. the e/"ectation for the demogra"hic census of )*0) is that of a further increase.. 2rgentina. 2s alread& mentioned. . @o#e3er. 'a"an. @o#e3er for the sa5e of anal&tical clarit&. but the& are not enough to consolidate a hegemonic role for 7ra=il in !outh 2merica. militar& and economic t&"es of hegemon& gi3en its relati3e ca"abilities limitations and the domestic instabilit& deri3ed from economic ineBualit& and &oung democratic regime (4ima-@irst )**+N Malamud )**?N :ieira )*001. this "ull of China’s "otential gi3es the countr& another 5ind soft "o#er that is harder to Buantif& (Ellis )*00aJ XI1. @egemon&J !hifting Po#er Patterns and Em"irical E3idence from 4atin 2merica that s"eciTcall& includes the nominall& subordinate. 'a"an. Lsoft "o#erM is a central conce"t. 7ra=ilian uni3ersities are no com"etitors to their 9.. the 9. China has not been able to LcharmM 4atin 2merica. :ietnam. Me/ico. the 9. . Indonesia. %he Pe# sur3e& demonstrates the range in attitudes concerning China #ith !outhern Cone countries li5e 7ra=il generall& more fa3orable to China at . the conce"t of consensual hegemon&. #hich features re"orts from throughout 4atin 2merica and the 9.e. Furthermore. 2ccording to MarBues and 4ima ()*001. des"ite China’s efforts to raise its "roTle in 4atin 2merica.!. %he contradiction bet#een these aims might "ose a challenge to 7ra=ilian foreign "olic& and its hegemonic bid (!antiso )**EN Ribeiro @offmann )*001.

senior fello# at the Carnegie Endo#ment for International Peace. .*2(2 legitimacy is resilient an' #ill reco"er 5agan/ ?$ (Robert. because gi3en the gro#ing dangers in the #orld. difficult circumstances and some ine"t "olic& has certainl& damaged 2merica8s standing in the #orld.$ as Clinton so humbl& "ut it in 0??(. regardless of #hich "art& #ins. htt"J--###. Get.cfm6 faO3ie#PidO0(X?. the 2merican "osition in the #orld has not deteriorated as much as "eo"le thin5. %hat is a good thing. 0-0I. It can resume an effecti3e leadershi" role in the #orld in fairl& short order. %he Dashington Post. e3en during the "resent administration and certainl& after the )**X election.carnegieendo#ment. des"ite e3er&thing.P"rogO=g"P"roFO=usr1 %his does not mean the 9nited !tates has not suffered a relati3e decline in that intangible but im"ortant commodit&J legitimac&.org-"ublications-inde/. 2 combination of shifting geo"olitical realities. the intelligent and effecti3e e/ercise of 2merica8s bene3olent global hegemon& is as im"ortant as e3er. 2merica still $stands alone as the #orld8s indis"ensable nation.

'!%>R1--@24 2fter a brief dro" in )**0. Dhile this threat is less a""arent toda&.M 42%IN 2MERIC2N P>4I%IC! 2NC !>CIE%G. the document forger. murder. human rights defenders. for #ea5nesses. Central to this danger is the ris5 of "olitici=ing the armed forces b& #idening their res"onsibilit& to fight. :ie#ed from a historical "ers"ecti3e. he has studied in Me/ico and Chile.00 %he a""lication of the LDar on %errorM "aradigm through Leffecti3e so3ereignt&M strengthens the militar&. Far from acting as a ne# "aradigm. :olume I). studied Communication Cesign in Melbourne. launder mone&. L%errorists and transnational criminals. Issue 0. I countries in the region #ere among the to" )* global reci"ients of 9. March Xth. ho#e3er.. the "olic& of Leffecti3e so3ereignt&M is the latest 3ersion of the Linternal enem&M threat circulated during the Cold Dar. the #ar on terrorism is m& number one "riorit&M (cited b& Ci"online )**. %hese statements "aint 4atin 2merica as a Lsoft underbell&M for the terrorist grou" 2l-gaeda to mount attac5s on the continental 9nited !tates (!teinit= )**E1.X)* 4atin 2merican soldiers #ere trained in the 9nited !tates. In addition to a Buantitati3e increase in o"erational training.!. the "olic& of Leffecti3e so3ereignt&M sets a dangerous "recedent in 4atin 2merica. Loften find shelter in border regions or areas be&ond the effecti3e reach of go3ernment. 2s General @ill e/"lained in March )**E. at the 2N9 (Gu&. transfer arms.1. 9. Leffecti3e so3ereignt&M establishes the ideological and "h&sical tools necessar& for regional militaries to undermine ci3ilian authorities (4obe )**. %he& #atch. %his line has further blurred as !outhcom. and leftist intellectuals. %his com"ares #ith the +0. authors. %his "olic& "osition #as reinforced b& thenWsecretar& of defense Conald Rumsfeld. the narcotraffic5er.M he remar5ed.A+F (ol"es +errorism *( Heg in Latin America 'oesn7t pre"ent terrorism an' only trains 'ictators to . E1. traditionall& a trainer of defense "ersonnel. and for seams in our collecti3e securit& arrangements that the& can tr& to e/"loitM (cited b& Isacson )**I1. %his threat is a #eed that is "lanted. Fournalists. securit&.. General @ill asserted that Lterrorists throughout the !outhern Command area of res"onsibilit& bomb. ri3ers and un"o"ulated border areasM (@ill )**E1.ing crime or other roles that ci3ilians can "erform. %his ne# method of training a' 'angero&s reperc&ssions. bet#een )**0 and )**I. and smuggle humansM (cited b& Ci"online )**. in his )**. the& "robe. has en3isaged a greater role for itself in the training of regional "olice forces (Ci"online )**X1. Cubbed Leffecti3e so3ereignt&. Part of the 9. . "ages EEW+). %hese statements ha3e had direct "olic& im"lications. o""osition "art& leaders.ill t eir o#n people in t e name of s&pporting t e *( Emerson/ 1? W PhC from the 2N9 !chool of !ocial !ciences. national securit& doctrine to combat local communism in 4atin 2merica. 2t its most fundamental.!.M the "olic& "romoted b& the Pentagon contends that 9. XI.+ and )*** (%o5atlian )**X1. and is currentl& associated #ith the 2ustralian National Centre for 4atin 2merican !tudies (2NC42!1.!. the teaching of the national securit& doctrine Bualitati3el& reoriented militar& training b& situating the internal enem& as the chief threat to national securit&. )*0*. the in3ocation of Leffecti3e so3ereignt&M and the re"olitici=ation of the Linternal enem&M reflect a continuit& of logic bet#een .M !outhcom Commander General 'ames @ill declared.0* In addition. and to Fustif& the censure of democratic institutions (%o5atlian )**XN Isacson )**I1. . before mo3ing to Canberra to stud& International Relations at the 2N9 in )**+. and intelligence forces that ha3e historicall& "osed a danger to democrac& #hile also #ea5ening ci3ilian and democratic institutions (Ciamint )**. !"ring )*0*. 7eginning in the "eriod )**IW)**(. LRadical Neglect6 %he LDar on %errorM and 4atin 2merica. %he Fustification for the increase in s"ending #as made through reference to the LDar on %error. the arms traffic5er.!.1. Posture !tatement. 5idna". loo5ing for areas of 3ulnerabilit&. 2dditionall&.N Isacson )**I1. defense against the internal enem& had t#o intert#ined com"onentsJ militar& training and the teaching of the national securit& doctrine (Dright )**(1. E1. traffic drugs.*** soldiers and "olice trained b& the infamous !chool of the 2mericas bet#een 0?. Ltoda&’s foe is the terrorist. gro#n and nurtured in the fertile ground of ungo3erned s"aces such as coastlines. national securit& is threatened b& 4atin 2merican go3ernments’ failure to e/ercise control o3er the 3ast Lungo3erned s"acesM #ithin their borders. militar& s"ending in 4atin 2merica has increased significantl& (figure 01. %he mono"ol& the militar& de3elo"s on the use of force (or the threat of force1 means that #hen it disagrees #ith the ci3ilian consensus there is a heightened "ossibilit& of 3iolence (Ci"online )**. . Las #ith e3er& other combatant commander. Militar& dictatorshi"s in the region a""ro"riated the language of the Linternal enem&M and e/"anded it to include unions. militar& assistance ('ust the Facts )**(1.

it a""ears.M concludes. It reBuires millions of dollars. argued >hio !tate 9ni3ersit& "rofessor 'ohn Mueller in a "resentation at the 9ni3ersit& of Chicago.M htt"J--###. in3ol3ement in militar& and "olitical bodies throughout 4atin 2merica. LC@2PM2NJ Nuclear terrorism unli5el&. 2ssuming the Fihadists 3ault o3er those @imala&as. . Iran. If that #ere eas&. 7esides. I-)). Gi3en the formidable odds. Lt e li. bac5 out or scre# u".com-articles-cha"man-X((0?-nuclear-terrorism.M If terrorists #ere able to steal a Pa5istani bomb. 2mericans ha3e had to li3e #ith the 5no#ledge that the ne/t time the terrorists stri5e. since #ea"ons that are not maintained Buic5l& become #hat one e/"ert calls Lradioacti3e scra" metal. !tealing some 0** "ounds of bomb fuel #ould reBuire hel" from rogue indi3iduals inside some go3ernment #ho are "re"ared to Feo"ardi=e their o#n li3es. Fissile material ma& be smuggled out of Russia. a safe ha3en and ad3anced eBui"ment H "lus "eo"le #ith s"eciali=ed s5ills. %his continuit& is illustrated in reference to the Dar on Crugs and Plan Colombia. 'ust as the Linternal enem&M historicall& "ro3ided a Fustification for continued 9. 2s for Iran. 00. the #orst e"ent&ality is one t at #ill ne"er appen. is tr&ing to acBuire nuclear #ea"ons. a longtime s"onsor of terrorist grou"s. in his boo5 LNuclear %errorism. shoot u" a sho""ing mall or set off a truc5 bomb H it’s reasonable to as5 #hether the& ha3e a chance at something much more ambitious. a terrorist grou" has to get a bomb or fissile material. means e/"anding the circle of "eo"le #ho 5no# #hat’s going on. %hat has heartening im"lications. #e all thought more attac5s #ere a certaint&. of n&clear terrorism C apman 1. )**0. !ure. one #ould ha3e alread& gone missing. Dh& are #e #orried6 7omb designs can be found on the Internet. It has sha"ed our 3ie# of go3ernment "olicies aimed at combating terrorism (filtered through 'ac5 7auer1. the& #ould still ha3e to defeat the arming codes and other safeguards designed to "re3ent unauthori=ed use. li5e e3er& other ste" in the entire "rocess. )**0. Get al-gaida and its ideological 5in ha3e "ro3ed &na!le to mo&nt a secon' stri. First. %hen comes the tas5 of building a bomb.M 7ut rememberJ 2fter !e"t. It’s not something &ou can gin u" #ith s"are "arts and "o#er tools in &our garage. no nuclear state has e3er gi3en a bomb to an all& H for reasons e3en the Iranians can gras". so does Leffecti3e so3ereignt&M toda&.eli oo' t at a terrorist gro&p #ill come &p #it an atomic !om! seems to !e "anis ingly small . those de3ices are "robabl& no longer a danger. None of this means #e should sto" tr&ing to minimi=e the ris5 b& securing nuclear stoc5"iles.html. It hel"ed mobili=e su""ort for the IraB #ar. the& #ould ha3e to deli3er the #ea"on onto 2merican soil . it could be not #ith air"lanes ca"able of 5illing thousands but atomic bombs ca"able of 5illing hundreds of thousands. in #hich the "ur"orted ne# securit& discourse associated #ith the LDar on %errorM a""ears to be based firml& in an old threat anal&sis. 2' E3er since !e"t. "erha"s from Russia’s in3entor& of decommissioned #arheads. Gi3en their inabilit& to do something sim"le H sa&. monitoring terrorist communications and im"ro3ing "ort screening. it has onl& a minuscule chance of seeing it bear fruit. %his. %he "ros"ect has created a sense of "rofound 3ulnerabilit&.the LDar on %errorM and "re3ious Cold Dar a""roaches. Far from being "lausible. L>n the current course. 2 la&"erson ma& figure it’s onl& a matter of time before the unimaginable comes to "ass. b!te"hen Cha"man is a columnist and editorial #riter for the Chicago %ribune.M %he e3ents reBuired to ma5e that ha""en com"rise a multitude of @erculean tas5s.oaoa. @ar3ard’s Graham 2llison. lots of time and a #illingness to die for the cause. drug smugglers bring in contraband all the time H but see5ing their hel" #ould confront the "lotters #ith "ossible e/"osure or e/tortion. 7ut it offers good reason to thin5 that in this #ar. multi"l&ing the chance someone #ill blab.e.!. If al-gaida embar5s on the "roFect. 00. nuclear terrorism is ine3itable. Mero ris. it pro!a!ly #onCt !ot er.

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*** LA HEG GDDD .

(&staina!le – ,AC
%aintaining egemonic infl&ence in Latin America is still possi!le – in'icators of 'ecline are e@aggerate' D&''y/ 14 (Patric5, 9,!, ambassador to :ene=uela from )**( until )*0* and is currentl& 3isiting senior lecturer at Cu5e 9ni3ersit&, and Fran5 >, Mora, incoming director of the 4atin 2merican and Caribbean Center, Florida International 9ni3ersit&, and former de"ut& assistant secretar& of Cefense, Destern @emis"here, L4atin 2mericaJ Is 9,!, influence #aning6N DE!%ERN @EMI!P@ERE,M %he Miami @erald, I-0-0E, le/is, %ashma1 2s President >bama tra3els to Me/ico and Costa Rica, it’s li5el& the "undits #ill once again underscore #hat some "ercei3e to be the eroding influence of the 9nited !tates in the Destern @emis"here, !ome #ill "oint to
the decline in foreign aid or the absence of an o3erarching "olic& #ith an ins"iring moni5er li5e L2lliance for ProgressM or LEnter"rise 2rea of the 2mericasM as e3idence that the 9nited !tates is failing to embrace the o""ortunities of a region that is more im"ortant to this countr& than e3er, %he realit& is a lot more com"licated, Fort&-t#o "ercent of all 9,!,

e/"orts flo# to the Destern @emis"here, In man& #a&s, *2(2 engagement in t e Americas is more per"asi"e t an e"er, e3en if more diffused, %hat is in "art because the "eo"les of the Destern @emis"here are
not #aiting for go3ernments to choreogra"h their interactions, 2 more-nuanced assessment ine3itabl& #ill highlight the com"le/, multidimensional ties bet#een the 9nited !tates and the rest of the hemis"here, In fact, it ma& be that #e need to change the #a& #e thin5 and tal5 about the countries of 4atin 2merica and the Caribbean, De also need to resist the tem"tation to embrace o3erl& reducti3e &ardstic5s for Fudging our standing in the hemis"here, 2s Moises Naim notes in his recent boo5, %he End of Po#er, there has been an im"ortant change in "o#er distribution in the #orld a#a& from states to#ard an e/"anding and increasingl& mobile set of actors that are dramaticall& sha"ing the nature and sco"e of global relationshi"s, In 4atin 2merica, man& of the most substanti3e and d&namic forms of engagement are occurring in a #eb of cross-national relationshi"s in3ol3ing small and large com"anies, "eo"le-to-"eo"le contact through student e/changes and social media, tra3el and migration, %rade and in3estment

remain the most enduring and measurable dimensions of 9,!, relations #ith the region, It is certainl& the case that our economic interests alone #ould Fustif& more 9,!, attention to the region, Man& obser3ers #ho #orr& about declining 9,!, influence in this area "oint to the rise of trade #ith China and the "resence of Euro"ean com"anies and in3estors, Dhile it is true that other countries are im"ortant to the economies of 4atin 2merica and the Caribbean, it is also still true that the 9nited !tates is b& far the largest and most im"ortant economic "artner of the region and trade is gro#ing e3en #ith those countries #ith #hich #e do not ha3e free trade agreements, 2n
area of immense im"ortance to regional economies that #e often o3erloo5 is the e/"onential gro#th in tra3el, tourism and migration, It is common"lace to note the enormous "resence of foreign students in the 9nited !tates but in )*00, according to the Institute of International Education, after Euro"e, 4atin 2merica #as the second most "o"ular destination for 9,!, uni3ersit& students, @undreds of thousands of 9,!, tourists tra3el e3er& &ear to 4atin 2merica and the Caribbean hel"ing to su""ort thousands of Fobs, From )**+-)*00 9,!, non-go3ernment organi=ations, such as churches, thin5 tan5s and uni3ersities increased

the number of "artnershi"s #ith their regional cohorts b& a factor of four, Remittances to 4atin 2merica and the Caribbean from the 9nited !tates totaled [+. billion in )*0), Particularl& for the smaller
economies of Central 2merica and the Caribbean these flo#s can sometimes constitute more than 0* "ercent of gross domestic "roduct, Finall&, one should not underestimate the resilienc& of 9,!, soft "o#er in the region, %he "o#er of national

re"utation, "o"ular culture, 3alues and institutions continues to contribute to 9,!, influence in #a&s that are difficult to measure and im"ossible to Buantif&, E/am"leJ Ces"ite 0. &ears of
strident anti-2merican rhetoric during the ChA3e= go3ernment, tens of thousand of :ene=uelans a""l& for 9,!, nonimmigrant 3isas e3er& &ear, including man& thousands of ChA3e= lo&alists,

+ e *2(2 can maintain egemonic infl&ence in Latin America if it plays its car's rig t – imme'iate action is .ey <alencia/ 11 (Robert, C>@2 Research Fello#, L2fter 7in 4aden’s Cemise, 2re 9,!,-4atin 2merican Relations 2t 7a& 2gain6,M Council on @emis"heric 2ffairs, I-)*-00, htt"J--###,coha,org-after-bin-ladens-demise-are-u-s-latin-american-relations-at-ba&-again-, %ashma1 Ne3ertheless, President >bama attem"ted to #arm relations #ith 4atin 2merica in the earl& months of his administration, Case in "ointJ !i/t& da&s after being s#orn in, he attended the fifth !ummit of the 2mericas in %rinidad

and %obago, stating that the meeting offered Lthe o""ortunit& of a ne# beginningM for the 2mericas, e3en e/"ressing o""osition to the militar& cou" in @onduras, Most recentl&, >bama eased tra3el restrictions to Cuba and "lanned a tri" to !outh 2merica, tra3eling to 7ra=il, Chile, and El !al3adorHe3en in the midst of the 4ib&an crisisHleading some to belie3e that he might continue for#ard #ith his regional initiati3es, @o#e3er, 9,!, commitment to 4atin 2merica #ill hardl& face the burden

of "roof in the &ears to come, %he >bama administration must choose #isel& in their re"lacement of 2rturo :alen=uela,
#ho recentl& ste""ed do#n as the 9,!, 2ssistant !ecretar& of !tate for Destern @emis"here 2ffairs after a some#hat lac5luster tenure in that "osition, In addition, 9,!, trade deals #ith "ermanentl& 3iolent Colombia and eternall& corru"t Panama #ill be 3oted on b& Congress and the >bama administration in 2ugust, %his #ill result in a long o3erdue endorsement that #ill, for man& Colombians, seal a "ledge to Dashington’s most strategic all& in !outh 2merica, !ome of the administration’s critics argue that, almost cons"iratoriall&, the 9,!, is far more interested in s#ee"ing 7ogotA’s human rights derelictions under the rug in order to get ahead #ith its free trade #ishes #ith Colombia, It seems as though 2merica’s economic interests trum" its desire to carr& out a good faith e/amination of Colombia’s chronicall& s"ott& human rights "erformance in order to resol3e the matter honestl&, 2lso, the most urgent issue for the 9nited !tates, #hen it comes to Me/ico, Central 2merica, and Colombia, is the #ar on drugs, In addition to the long-running Plan Colombia funding, the 9,!, has "ledged the disbursement of the Merida Initiati3e budget, allocated for 9!C 0,+ billion, to Me/ican and Central 2merican authorities attem"ting to control drug smuggling into the 9nited !tates , In this "ost-

bin 4aden era, President >bama must not onl& mend fences #ith the Middle East and ca"itali=e global efforts #ith current and emerging "o#ers, but must also o3ercome the stigma that correlates 4atin 2merica #ith a longbro5en fi/ture s#inging in the 9nited !tates’ "erennial Lbac5&ard,M @e can begin to do so b& e/tending a brand of "ros"erit& and securit& that is more false than true, #hich #ill in turn continue to distress the 9nited !tates #ith socioeconomic strife along the immediate borders of the region,

(&staina!le – Economic Infl&ence
+ e *2(2 still as economic 'ominance o"er t e region – C ina is a small c allenger (a!atini/ 14 (Christo"her, Editor in Chief of 2mericas guarterl& and !enior Cirector of Polic& at the 2mericas !ociet& and the Council of the 2mericas, LDI44 42%IN 2MERIC2 MI!! 9,!, @EGEM>NG6,M 'ournal of International 2ffairs, :olume ++, Issue ), !"ring )*0E, "g, 0-a:I, ProBuest, %ashma1 If the economic influence of the 9nited !tates has declined in the region, ho#e3er, its long-term "o#er - economic and "olitical - remains, + e attention on C ina7s historic economic presence in the hemis"here as o"erloo.e' the *nited (tates8 contin&e' economic 'ominance in t e region, both in terms of its trade and the 3alue of its mar5et, In )*00, trade bet#een the 9nited !tates, 4atin 2merica, and the Caribbean totaled [X** billion, and the 3olume of o3erall 4atin 2merican trade #ith the 9nited !tates is still greater than #ith China - and much of that is in manufactured goods,0E %he
goods China consumes from 4atin 2merica are "rimaril& commodities - #ith little 3alue added, 2t the same time, Chinese manufactured e/"orts - man& of them made #ith the commodities "roduced b& the region - com"ete directl& on the global mar5et #ith higher end goods "roduced b& 7ra=il and other emerging economies in the region,0.

(&staina!le – %ilitary )o#er
*( ar'po#er in Latin America is ig -!asing an' regional sec&rity agreements Bran' et al 1,, 2le/ander 7rand is 4ecturer and Post-Coc Researcher at the Ce"artment of

Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Main=,!usan McE#en-Fial is 4ecturer at the Ce"artment of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Main=, Dolfgang Muno is :isiting Professor of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Erfurt, 2ndrea Ribeiro @offmann is 4ecturer at the Dill& 7randt !chool of Public Polic&, 9ni3ersit& of Erfurt, (*.-)*0), L7RICs and 9,!, @egemon&J %heoretical ReVections on !hifting Po#er Patterns and Em"irical E3idence from 4atin 2mericaM,Main= Pa"ers on International and Euro"ean Politics (MPIEP1 Pa"er No, ., htt"J--international,"olitics,uni-main=,de-files-)*0)-0*-m"ie"*.,"df,FF1
2dditionall&, the

9nited !tates is the onl& non-regional countr& #ith a "ermanent militar& S "resence in 4atin 2merica, 2ccording to ofTcial Pentagon data, there is acti3e militar& "ersonnel in e3er& 4atin 2merican countr&, in sum about ),*** soldiers (9!C>C )*0)1, %he mostS im"ortant bases are GuantAnamo in Cuba and
!oto Cano 2ir 7ase in @onduras, 9ntil recentl&,S Manta 2ir 7ase in Ecuador #as 3er& im"ortant, too, In 0???, the 9,!, signed an agreementS #ith Ecuador for a ten-&ear-lease of facilities at Manta air"ort, %he left#ing go3ernment under S Corrales did not e/tend this lease, so it ran out in )**?, Currentl&, a ne# air base in Colombia ,S PalanBuero, ser3es as a substitute for Manta, !i/

more bases are "lanned in Colombia, 2dditionall&, so-called Lfor#ard o"erations locationsM in ElS !al3ador, Puerto Rico, Peru, Costa Rica, 2ruba and Curayao (see 4emoine )*0*N !ala=ar )*001,S 2nother im"ortant militar& asset is the reestablishment of the Fourth Fleet in )**X after IXS &ears, seated in Miami and res"onsible in "articular for the Caribbean !ea, S %he militar& "resence is com"lemented b& se3eral securit& treaties and initiati3es li5e theS Plan Colombia, the 2ndean Regional Initiati3e, the M<rida Initiati3e and the Central 2merican S !ecurit& Initiati3e (see Kur=-Muno )**IN @offmann )**X1, %hese securit& initiati3es securedS militar& inVuence through Tnancial militar& aid, Colombia recei3ed about [ I billion duringS the 0* &ears of Plan Colombia from 0??? until )**?, [ 0,+ billion #ere
(#hich is a eu"hemism for base1 e/ist authori=ed b& the 9,!,S Congress for the Trst three &ears of the M<rida Initiati3e for Me/ico, Central 2merica, @aiti and S the Cominican Re"ublic,S For decades, the legitimation of the militar& "resence in 4atin 2merica had been the Tght S against communism, 2fter the brea5do#n of communism and the end of the Cold Dar, theS Dar on Crugs has

re"laced anti-communism as the main rationale of 9,!, securit& "olic& in S the region (see Crandall
)**X1, %hree sub-regional units can be differentiated in the Dar on S CrugsJ the source-countries "roducing cocaine in the 2ndes, es"eciall& Colombia and 7oli3ia, S the transit countries in the Caribbean, Central 2merica, and Me/ico (including :ene=uela1, and S the remote countries in the !outhern Cone and 7ra=il, #hich are less affected, S %o sum u", the 9,!, is the onl& non-4atin

2merican countr& #ith a "ermanent militar& "resence in the region , %his militar& "resence gi3es the 9nited !tates the ca"abilities to inter3ene atS an& time in an& 4atin 2merican countr&, at least through air stri5es, %he most im"ortant securit&S issue is the Dar on Crugs, %he transit countries near the 9,!,-border
and the source countriesS in the 2ndes are the main targets and-or coo"eration "artners, the more southern countries are S less affected,

(&staina!le – (oft )o#er
*2(2 soft po#er is on t e rise an' s&staina!le in Latin America (a!atini/ 14 (Christo"her, Editor in Chief of 2mericas guarterl& and !enior Cirector of Polic& at the 2mericas !ociet& and the Council of the 2mericas, LDI44 42%IN 2MERIC2 MI!! 9,!, @EGEM>NG6,M 'ournal of International 2ffairs, :olume ++, Issue ), !"ring )*0E, "g, 0-a:I, ProBuest, %ashma1 @ere, #e turn to the last t#o "ro3ocati3e sources of soft "o#erJ moral leadershi" and as"irational leadershi", Dhile the 9nited !tates ma& ha3e cloa5ed national interests in the rhetoric of shared "rinci"les, there ha3e been times - such as those discussed earlier - #hen its actions ha3e hel"ed to ensure "ositi3e "olitical change and the reinforcement of human rights norms and standards in the region, %he call of a common histor&, of democratic inde"endence, and of a shared commitment to go3ernment b& the "eo"le, #hile hard to Buantif&, remains "o#erful, E3en those #ho ha3e established themsel3es as o""osed to 9,!, influence and democrac&, such as Presidents Cha3e= and Morales, defined their mo3ements and go3ernments as e/"ressions of democratic "artici"ation and inclusion in the region, 2nd as the 9 nited !tates ad3ances its o#n "rocesses of democratic inclusion - in areas of race, gender, or se/ual orientation - its efforts remain an ins"iration and source of su""ort for citi=ens in these countries, 9,!, leadershi" on issues of ci3il rights, gender eBualit&, and more recentl& lesbian, ga&, bise/ual, and transgender (4G7%1 rights ha3e hel"ed to gi3e 3oice to once-discriminated grou"s and ha3e "ressured go3ernments directl& and indirectl& into addressing those concerns, !imilarl&, the as"irational as"ect of 9,!, "o#er remains strong, Dhether it is the desire to immigrate to see5 #or5 or to "ursue higher education in the 9nited !tates, the ineffable allure of the $colossus of the north$ remains im"ortant, 2nd, as "ersonal ties bet#een the 9 nited !tates and 4atin 2merica gro# - through immigration, culture, education, and integration - so too #ill the im"ortance of "eo"le8s sense of "ersonal and cultural connection to the 9 nited !tates, @o#e3er, neither
democrac& nor the "ersonal or educational ties should be goals of 9,!, foreign "olic&, %oo often, these ties ha3e obscured the real interests of the 9nited !tates that ha3e led to moments of false unit& and o"timism, #hich ha3e s5e#ed 9,!, "olic&, %he "roblem is that the 9,!, go3ernment often refers to ideas of democratic go3ernment, educational Bualit&, and inclusion as goals of foreign "olic&, %he& are not, Rather, t e "al&es an' e@amples of t e *nited (tates are tools of 'iplomacyQ toda& t

ey are &n'er"al&e' in the "ublic discussion of the 9,!, role in the region, !&t the& remain strong2

and China is ha3ing S an im"ortant im"act on the region’s infrastructure. to begin hedging their bets b& im"ro3ing their damaged relationshi" #ith the 9nited !tates. the 9nited !tates has begun to "romote a %rans-Pacific Partnershi" (%PP1.!. such as Cuba and :ene=uela. but China’s influence in the S region is large and gro#ing. S !et u" in )**+.!.(&staina!le – A+F C inese Infl&ence *( eg isnCt t reatene' in Latin America-C ina is only p&rs&ing peacef&l "ent&res Hilton 14.MChina in 4atin 2mericaJ @egemonic challenge6MN htt"J--###.!. Furthermore. China’s economic #eight offers its 4atin 2merican "artners a ne# S freedom to def& 9. 7oli3ia and Ecuador.chinadialogue. ChinaN 42%IN 2MERIC2. from S Na=i German& to the !o3iet 9nion and 'a"an.aad?. Prior to falling ill. since it #as unli5el& that Lcha3ismoM #ithout ChA3e= #ould sur3i3e. China has been careful S to 5ee" a lo# "olitical and di"lomatic "rofile to a3oid antagonising the 9. it has faced a series of challengers.!. e/"elled their 9. the rise of the Peo"le’s Re"ublic of China S (PRC1 has been resha"ing the "olitics and economics of the S region.!. 0)-0E-00."df1 %he 9nited !tates is 4atin 2merica’s traditional hegemonic "o#er. as a rising "o#er. as #ell as his "rotection.!. a 4ondon-based #riter and broadcaster. S IntroductionS E3er since President 'ames Monroe’s 0X)E declaration that S Euro"ean "o#ers must res"ect the #estern hemis"here as S the 9. the :ene=uelan "resident had used his oil #ealth to hel" elect and sustain a number of leftist "residents #ho had ha""il& Foined ChA3e= in challenging 9. chinadialogue "romotes Fust and eBuitable solutions S to shared "roblems through highBualit&.WChina ri3alr& S and "otential confrontation o3er such issues as %ai#an. It is not sur"rising. the& also "ursued "olicies that challenged 9. s"here of influence. 2s such. a non-"rofit Chinese-English S "latform for en3ironmental and climate change ne#s and anal&sis. ambassadors. and :ene=uela and 7oli3ia e/"elled 9.!. most of #hom belong to the ChA3e=-led 2472 grou" of countries. !he #as S formerl& 4atin 2merica editor of %he Inde"endent ne#s"a"er and S is editor of ###. that do not enFo& good relations #ith the 9. "ri3ate in3estments in the region.!.!. as #ell as :ene=uela itself. and to maintain a S benign en3ironment for its economic acti3ities. S allies 'a"an and :ietnam could ha3e re"ercussions in 4atin 2merica if China feels the 9. In the meantime.!. has been im"ortant S for "artners.. an im"ortant in3estor and an e/"orter of manufactured goods. as the 9!!R did in the Cold S Dar. that as rumors of ChA3e=’s deteriorating health increased. ChA3e=’s illness has caused his ideological allies . S %he im"act of China’s acti3ities 3aries in degree from countr& to countr&. %ashma1 China had e/"ected to continue increasing its influence in 4atin 2merica at the e/"ense of that of the 9nited !tates. but rising tensions #ith 9.net. Instead. distorted de3elo"ment and en3ironmental degradation due to a lo#ering of en3ironmental and social standards."eacebuilding. against the bac5ground of 9.M %he Miami @erald. #ea5ness #ould facilitate his efforts to become the dominant force in an increasingl& anti-2merican region.e egemonic control o"er Latin America s&staina!le )&rcell/ 11 (!usan Kaufman. base in Manta. LDhat @ugo ChA3e=’s illness means for 9. ChA3e=’s announcement that he had cancer caused his allies to conclude that if ChA3e= #ere to die. in3ol3ement in the region #hile su""orting China’s gro#ing influence there. interests. @o# far has the PRC become the ne# hegemonic S challenger6S China has not sought a strategic confrontation #ith the 9nited !tates in 4atin 2merica. the 9nited !tates has been the S dominant economic. therefore. %he ris5s to the region include resource S curse. @o# far does China’s "resence in the 9. @e belie3ed that 9. the chances #ere good that the& #ould lose the economic aid the& #ere recei3ing from him. #hich #ould ultimatel& lin5 the Pacific Coast countries of the Destern @emis"here #ith those of the 2sia-Pacific in order to increase Pacific 7asin trade and securit& and hel" offset China’s influence in 2sia and 4atin 2merica. should the& choose to. @o#e3er. others from large in3estments. Ecuador also refused to rene# the 9.no-3ar-e=flo#Qsite-storage-original-a""lication-)+ff0a*ccEc*b+dI +?)cXafbc*I. Ces"ite its significant economic "resence. C ina canCt f&lly c allenge *2(2 infl&ence in t e region – se"eral 'e"elopments ma. In the last S t#o decades. drug enforcement agents from their countries. reliable information (Isabel. Chinese su""ort. S this could change in the future.!. ChA3e= also regarded the 9nited !tates as a declining "o#er in the Destern @emis"here and China. le/is.!.!.!. "olitical and militar& "o#er in 4atin 2merica. 7oli3ia and Ecuador . !o far S the t#o "o#ers ha3e sought coo"eration rather than confrontation. In se3eral countries S local manufacturing has suffered from chea"er Chinese im"ortsN se3eral countries ha3e benefited from Chinese demand for resources. %o 3ar&ing degrees.!. bac5&ard re"resent a S hegemonic challenge6 China is im"ortant in the region as a bu&er of 4atin 2merican resources. director of the Center for @emis"heric Polic& at the 9ni3ersit& of Miami. S "rimaril& from four countries. is S becoming too asserti3e in its o#n East 2sian bac5&ard. ho#e3er.

others from large in3estments. 'o#n if *( #ants control of Latin America Coronel 11 (Gusta3o Coronel for the Cato Institute -. Dashington also #ants to send a message of reassurance to the 2sian countries that the 9nited !tates #ill not reduce its militar& "resence in the Pacific during a "eriod #hen China is fle/ing its militar& muscles. Chinese su""ort. obFections China might ha3e to do#nsi=e it or abandon it altogether. the "otential for a more coo"erati3e relationshi" bet#een these countries and the 9nited !tates is considerabl& better than it #as before ChA3e=’s illness. he founded Pro Calidad de :ida.!. Dashington’s ultimate goal is to Foin and hel" e/"and the inci"ient %rans-Pacific Partnershi"."df1 %he 9nited !tates is 4atin 2merica’s traditional hegemonic "o#er.!. %hese recent 9. something that seems not onl& "ossible but also "robable in the short term. %he decision of Chile. Me/ico. For a ne#. China has been careful S to 5ee" a lo# "olitical and di"lomatic "rofile to a3oid antagonising the 9. "ro3ided the& ta5e the necessar& domestic ste"s to ma5e their countries more economicall& com"etiti3e.. and China is ha3ing S an im"ortant im"act on the region’s infrastructure. Mala&sia. @o# far does China’s "resence in the 9. both the 4atin 2merican and 9. 2 ne# go3ernment could denounce this association.!. Ne# ]ealand. unconstitutional. and to maintain a S benign en3ironment for its economic acti3ities.!. is clearl& more im"ortant to China than :ene=uela in a geo"olitical sense. Finall&.!. a 4ondon-based #riter and broadcaster. Ces"ite its significant economic "resence. 'a"an and Colombia ha3e e/"ressed interest in Foining.!. 7runei. the 9nited !tates. C ina #ill !ac. that do not enFo& good relations #ith the 9. %he ris5s to the region include resource S curse. an NG> "romoting anti-corru"tion techniBues in go3ernment and ci3ic education for children in :ene=uela. chinadialogue "romotes Fust and eBuitable solutions S to shared "roblems through highBualit&. %o date.eo"er Hilton 14.!. efforts to increase trade among countries on both sides of the Pacific 7asin "resent 4atin 2merica’s Pacific coast countries #ith ne# o""ortunities to gro# their economies.!. !he #as S formerl& 4atin 2merica editor of %he Inde"endent ne#s"a"er and S is editor of ###. as #ell as signal to China that it has to "la& fairl& in the global econom&. ho#e3er. an im"ortant in3estor and an e/"orter of manufactured goods. Dashington’s interest in3ol3es both economic and securit& concerns. S !et u" in )**+. 2nother obstacle could be the "osture of the 9. S IntroductionS E3er since President 'ames Monroe’s 0X)E declaration that S Euro"ean "o#ers must res"ect the #estern hemis"here as S the . Colombia and Me/ico to create the 2lliance of the Pacific. such as Cuba and :ene=uela.org-"ublications-commentar&-has-3ene=uelas-cha3e=-become-chinese-"u""et-latinamerica1 !M %he main threat to this Chi-Cha lin5 is re"resented b& a change in go3ernment in :ene=uela. %he !outh Korean agreement #as follo#ed shortl& thereafter b& President >bama’s eight-da& tri" around the Pacific Rim aimed at sending the message that the 9nited !tates is a Pacific "o#er that #ants to e/"and its engagement #ith the countries of the region. !o far S the t#o "o#ers ha3e sought coo"eration rather than confrontation. to the benefit of the Destern @emis"here as a #hole. but China’s influence in the S region is large and gro#ing.net. has been im"ortant S for "artners. S "rimaril& from four countries.:ene=uelan re"resentati3e to %rans"arenc& International from 0??+ to )***.chinadialogue. 2s a result.!. It #ants to e/"and 9. #hich could become the largest economic bloc in the region."eacebuilding. go3ernment some of the characteristics of the China-Cha3e= relationshi" are clearl& not in the national interest and. endangering China’s mone& and obFecti3es in :ene=uela. bac5&ard re"resent a S hegemonic challenge6 China is im"ortant in the region as a bu&er of 4atin 2merican resources. Canada. Dashington also restored some of its lost influence in 4atin 2merica b& finall& a""ro3ing the free-trade agreements #ith Colombia and Panama. but rising tensions #ith 9. since the 9. Panama. it is unli5el& that the 2472 "residents #ill follo# his lead as eagerl& as the& did before his illness. reliable information (Isabel. S allies 'a"an and :ietnam could ha3e re"ercussions in 4atin 2merica if China feels the 9. democratic.no-3ar-e=flo#Qsite-storage-original-a""lication-)+ff0a*ccEc*b+dI +?)cXafbc*I.MChina in 4atin 2mericaJ @egemonic challenge6MN htt"J--###.decided to once again e/change ambassadors #ith the 9nited !tates. Me/ico and Nicaragua -. E3en if the rumors of ChA3e=’s ra"idl& declining health "ro3e to be e/aggerated. the %PP includes Chile.aad?. Paragua&. trade #ith the region. In 0??.cato. is a good ste" in this direction. trade lin5s #ith the 2sia Pacific. regarding the relationshi". In case of strong 9. e3en.$@as :ene=uela8s Cha3e= 7ecome a Chinese Pu""et in 4atin 2merica6$ >ctober 0*th. distorted de3elo"ment and en3ironmental degradation due to a lo#ering of en3ironmental and social standards. Peru. is S becoming too asserti3e in its o#n East 2sian bac5&ard. :ietnam and Peru.!. )*00 -###. a non-"rofit Chinese-English S "latform for en3ironmental and climate change ne#s and anal&sis.!. !inga"ore. 2 free-trade agreement #ith !outh Korea #as also "art of the "ac5age and constituted an im"ortant ste" in President >bama’s goal of e/"anding 9. In se3eral countries S local manufacturing has suffered from chea"er Chinese im"ortsN se3eral countries ha3e benefited from Chinese demand for resources.!. S %he im"act of China’s acti3ities 3aries in degree from countr& to countr&. No c ina ta. efforts re"resent a #elcome attem"t b& North and !outh 2merica’s Pacific coast countries to le3el the economic "la&ing field #ith China. 2ustralia.

including its recent dis"la& of its Trst aircraft carrier. for national securit&S reasons.M %he Cail& %elegra"h. S this could change in the future.de-files-)*0)-0*-m"ie"*. foreign "olic&ma5ers regarding China’s obFecti3es. Ecuador and 7oli3ia. %he success of com"anies such as @ua#ei reVect the inter#ea3ing of state and businessS interests that characteri=es China’s de3elo"ment model as the China Ce3elo"ment 7an5 (CC71. the rise of the Peo"le’s Re"ublic of China S (PRC1 has been resha"ing the "olitics and economics of the S region.S In terms of sales of militar& eBui"ment. In the last S t#o decades. htt"J--international. @ua#ei has been "articularl& successful in #inning contracts es"eciall& for su""l&ing S chea" eBui"ment and technolog& to rural areas in 4atin 2merica (Koles5i )*00N Kirchgaessner S )*001. le/is. C inese infl&ence #onCt e@pan' --. %his more "ersonal S a""roach to the militar& relationshi" is "art of the "eo"le to "eo"le focus em"hasis on China’sS soft "o#er announced b& @u 'intao in )**(. !usan McE#en-Fial is 4ecturer at the Ce"artment of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Main=.!. bac5&ardM of 4atin 2merica China’s militar& acti3it& has been relati3el& limited. has e/tended loans to @ua#ei in order for the com"an& to offer 3er& S lo# credit to its customers (Koles5i )*00J0)1. !us"ected to be anS arm of the Chinese defense industr& and banned from mergers in the 9. >n theS other hand.and #on8t . No impact to C inese 'ra#-in Latin America. China has been limited due to Bualit& control issues.-)*0).or e3en .!.. S In conclusion. it has faced a series of challengers.S Ne3ertheless. %heS Peo"le’s 4iberation 2rm& (P421 also held Foint counter terrorism e/ercises #ith 7ra=il and aS humanitarian e/ercise #ith Peru (9!C>C )*001. China’s militar& foot"rint has been relati3el& light .1. althoughS relations ha3e e/"anded in recent &ears. Furthermore. allies such as Colombia and Me/ico (ibid. %ashma1 2s the Dest contem"lates a ne# bout of financial meltdo#n.!. 2le/ander 7rand is 4ecturer and Post-Coc Researcher at the Ce"artment of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Main=. it is interesting to note the huge S "resence of telecommunication com"anies such as @ua#ei in 4atin 2merica.S a go3ernment "olic& ban5. X S China has no conTrmed "h&sical militar& "resence in 4atin 2merica. In theS L9. For e/am"le. 9ni3ersit& of Erfurt.J 001.!. !enior le3el ministerial 3isits including 3isits at S the Ministr& of Cefense or Chief of !taff le3els also increased during )*0* (ibid. it has increased its militar& e/changes of ofTcers #ith 0X 4atin 2merican countries. China director of the research ser3ice %rusted !ources.C ina is intereste' in co&nter-terrorism an' &manitarian ai' Bran' et al 1. militar& sales to 4atin 2merica com"rised a""ro/imatel& ?_ of China’s militar& #ea"ons sales in )*0*. against the bac5ground of 9."olitics. defense anal&sts such as E3an Ellis argue thatS China #ill refrain from ta5ing o3ertl& "ro3ocati3e militar& acti3ities such as establishing basesS in 4atin 2merica in order not to a""ear threatening to the 9nited !tates (Ellis )*00J 0*1. China’s militar& strateg& in 4atin S 2merica follo#s its lo#-5e& attem"ts to establish dee"er "ersonal and commercial relations asS a strategic all&. In total. %he Chinese continue to balance theirS interests in establishing dee"er militar& relationshi"s #ith the region #ith their interest in aS stable relationshi" #ith the 9. although some 2mericaS securit& s"ecialists sus"ect that the Chinese might ha3e established at least one listening "ostS in Cuba (@orta )**XN Ellis )*001. China is coo"erating #ith 7ra=il in satellite technolog&. @o#e3er. @o# far has the PRC become the ne# hegemonic S challenger6S China has not sought a strategic confrontation #ith the 9nited !tates in 4atin 2merica. China’s economic #eight offers its 4atin 2merican "artners a ne# S freedom to def& 9.-II1. s"here of influence. as the 9!!R did in the Cold S Dar.!.? China has also donated eBui"ment S and sent militar& doctors and "ersonnel to the region. the second biggest econom& on Earth might a""ear to be #ell "laced to ride abo3e the angst ri""ing through the mar5ets .J 0..!. 2s such.Main= Pa"ers on International and Euro"ean Politics (MPIEP1 Pa"er No. 2ndrea Ribeiro @offmann is 4ecturer at the Dill& 7randt !chool of Public Polic&.WChina ri3alr& S and "otential confrontation o3er such issues as %ai#an. Furthermore.!. It is an area in #hich relations S #ill undoubtedl& continue to e/"and in the near future. China’s Dhite Pa"er on 4atin 2merica targeted gro#thS in militar& ties as one of its obFecti3es for the region.uni-main=. #hich can ha3eS dual-use a""lication (Flanagan )*00J I. @egemon&J %heoretical ReVections on !hifting Po#er Patterns and Em"irical E3idence from 4atin 2mericaM.!.9. the 9nited !tates has been the S dominant economic. It has also sold non-lethal goods S such as glo3es and #inter hats to the Colombian arm& and tents and uniforms to countries li5eS Gu&ana and 'amaica (Ellis )*00J E*1.. interests. . %hus. >ne area that should be mentioned is the o3erla" bet#een militar& and commercial interests. should the& choose to. has been S subFect to great debate among 9. LChina can8t . S including traditional 9. X-+-00. (*. although increased e/changes of "ersonnel and increased militar& sales create o""ortunit& for the Chinese militar& S and the corres"onding defense industr& to broaden their reach. including K-X and M2-+* aircraft and radar eBui"ment.t eir economy is =&st a!o&t 'one gro#ing Fen!y/ 11 ('onathan. L7RICs and 9.sa3e the #orld. from S Na=i German& to the !o3iet 9nion and 'a"an. Dolfgang Muno is :isiting Professor of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Erfurt. China has sold militar& #ea"ons to countries such as :ene=uela. "olitical and militar& "o#er in 4atin 2merica."df. In the meantime.!.FF1 China’s militar& buildu".

Get the truth is that. Instead. "er cent higher than in the same "eriod of )*0*. is to be left alone . %his means engineering a transition from an econom& that de"ends too much on e/"orts and on in3estment in infrastructure and "ro"ert& to one #here consumers "la& a much greater role. or is ine3itabl& destined to. Foreign go3ernments. %here is also the Buestion of #hat China #ould get out of inter3ening. rather than charging on to the "itch and tr&ing to "ut things right. 7ut the amounts the& ha3e "ut on the table ha3e been small. it contents itself #ith denouncing the "resent set-u" as $2merican hegemon&$. Get China8s entanglement #ith the rest of the #orld has been crucial to its e/"ansion since Ceng aiao"ing let the mar5et genie out of the Maoist bottle in the late 0?(*s. China has its o#n "roblems to contend #ith. mean#hile. 2nd #ithout e/"orts. In the first half of this &ear. . China8s leaders. since the result is to boost the global mone& su""l&.to "la& the global role that should go #ith its economic #eight. it registered gro#th of ?. ho#e3er. the Part& can8t maintain the gro#th that has been its main claim to rule since ideolog& #as "ac5ed off to the mausoleum #ith Mao %se-tung. has its de3oteesJ a ne# global "oll found that +I "er cent of 7ritons belie3e the Peo"le8s Re"ublic is set to become the leading su"er"o#er. be&ond a fe# basic core interests such as retaining an o"en trading s&stem. %he current crisis is li5el& to highlight the limitations of this blin5ered a""roach . it has been calculated that the monetar& reser3es of the Peo"le8s Re"ublic are big enough for it to bu& Ital& outright. Inflation has. and has become the lender of last resort to the 9! administration. both for economic reasons and to maintain social stabilit&. gi3en the greenbac58s dismal "erformance. the countr& has had Buite an eas& ride. + at s&ccess story. #ith ne# lending b& state ban5s of [0 trillion. mas. #hich roared out of control in )**?. 7ut the Chinese are far from im"ressed b& the financial management of the euro=one . if it has not alread& done soN the "ro"ortion in the 9! #as . It sits on a [E trillion mountain of foreign reser3es. this is due to the nature of the #orld around it. !o China is caught bet#een a roc5 and a hard "lace.to be able to get on #ith the Fob of creating a $moderatel& "ros"erous societ&$ b& the a""lication of $scientific socialism$ in a one-"art& state.but it is far from clear about #hat e/actl& China #ould li5e to see in its "lace.or its #illingness . For instance. 7oth goals are undermined b& the Buantitati3e easing "ursued b& the Federal Reser3e in the 9!. #ould s"a#n ram"ant inflation. "er cent and sta3ing off "o"ular anger in the "rocess remains a maFor target of the go3ernment. combined #ith "ressure on food su""lies and rising #ages. %here is also a dee"er contradiction at #or5. %hat means getting a firm handle on the su""l& of mone&. >n the surface. $@o# do &ou tal5 tough to &our ban5er6$ %he idea of a countr& in #hich hundreds of millions are relati3el& "oor riding to the rescue of the Dest seems "arado/ical. sha5ing their lu/uriant heads of gloss& blac5 hair at the failure of the >bama administration and Euro"ean go3ernments to "ut their houses in order. 7eiFing8s leaders ha3e made soothing noises on recent Euro"ean 3isits about bu&ing bonds from beleaguered Mediterranean nations.and the fact that China8s leaders #ill almost certainl& "refer to #atch the mess& game disa""ro3ingl& from the stands. some of #hich feeds into in3estments in commodities. EBuall& im"ortantl&. %he first is that the effects of that "rogramme. !ince the& "ulled themsel3es out of an economic hole in )**X-? #ith a z0. %he #orld8s most hea3il& "o"ulated nation needs the rest of the #orld as a source of ra# materials and a destination for its goods. It #ants to #ard off inflation. China seems to ha3e man& reasons to smile. in the #ords of Dorld 7an5 President Robert ]oellic5. so long as it continues to register a trade sur"lus and to control the 3alue of its currenc&. China8s in3estments in Euro"e remain marginal com"ared #ith the sums it s"ends in commodit&-rich 2frica.e' C ina7s fail&re to craft a co erent "olitical or economic glo!al policy. indeed. %he second #as that demand for China8s e/"orts #ould fall as the Dest #ent into a doubledi" recession. in their immaculate business suits. 2s the Communist Part& a""roaches a #holesale change in its senior leadershi" in the autumn of )*0). the bureaucrats in 7eiFing ha3e had t#o great fears.+ "er cent and in China +E "er cent.from the ) "er cent a3erage of much of the "ast decade to more than + "ercent this summer. It has also begun to encourage the use of its o#n currenc&. %o some e/tent. 4atin 2merica and 2ustralia. #inning access to commodities. Get the de"ressing truth is that China finds itself in a series of binds #hich limit its abilit& . 5ee"ing its currenc& under3alued and rebuffing critics of its "olic& in %ibet or %ai#an. %he countr& surel& #ants the international financial s&stem to be reformed . %he mone& is clearl& thereJ indeed.and there is no other currenc& mar5et #hich can absorb the sums in3ol3ed. 2 serious do#nturn in the Dest #ould shoot a big hole in the Communist Part&8s trium"hant stor& in the sensiti3e run-u" to the leadershi" transition in )*0). 7eiFing #ould li5e to reduce its dollar holdings. inflation-curbing goods. the &uan. %he snag is that the o""osite a""roach austerit& e la George >sborne . %he idea that China alread& rules the #orld. o3era#ing foreigners #ith the sheer s"eed and scale of its gro#th #hile being #elcomed into the global econom& because it "ro3ided chea". Certainl&.brings the threat of declining demand for China8s e/"orts. 7ut China8s rise has fanned e/"ectations that it is read& to become a $res"onsible sta5eholder $. 7ut it needs e/"ort mar5ets to sta& 3ibrant at a time #hen its im"ort bill is at the merc& of commodit& "rices.E trillion "rogramme of credit e/"ansion and infrastructure s"ending. and "la& its full role in hel"ing to steer the #orld econom& to safet&. bringing inflation do#n to around . for the "ast three decades. #ill be to increase its dollar reser3es e3en further. #ith e/"orts ). 2nd the& ha3e been onl& too #illing to highlight the #a& in #hich the Peo"le8s Re"ublic restored strong gro#th after the econom& suffered a short-term di" at the end of )**X. in international trade . risen . Dhat China8s rulers #ant.use its #ealth to come to the rescue of the richer #orld. Moreo3er. ha3e made clear their disa""ro3al of Destern "rofligac&. 7eiFing also needs to see a decline in the cost of the ra# materials im"orted to feed its industrial machine. ha3e muted criticism of its human rights recordJ as @illar& Clinton has remar5ed.but the onl& result of that.I "er cent. abo3e all.

hegemon&.(&staina!le – A+F Ne# C allengers *( eg &nc allenge' in Latin America-C ina an' Bra6il lac. htt"J--international."df."olitics. Dolfgang Muno is :isiting Professor of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Erfurt. ..!. L7RICs and 9. In terms of hegemon&. (*.Main= Pa"ers on International and Euro"ean Politics (MPIEP1 Pa"er No.de-files-)*0)-0*-m"ie"*. ho#e3er. @o#e3er. it seems to lac5 most of the ingredients to act as aS regional hegemon.!.!.N it thus has signaled at least rhetoricall&S a #ill to balance 9.FF1 China has e/"anded its regional resource base in economic terms and it has used institutional as #ell as soft "o#er instruments to smooth its #a& to#ards enhanced economic e/change. in 4atin 2merica asS a #hole. it lac5s the material "o#er base and Buite often WS gi3en a lot of similar "olic& obFecti3es W a de facto #ill to challenge the 9. t e material po#er to co&nter t e *( Bran' et al 1... es"eciall& since most acti3ities are both modest in si=e and strictl& tied to either narro# economic or narro# di"lomatic goals0(N Chinese hegemonic as"irations can hardl&S be detected in the 4atin 2merican region. 7ra=il has es"eciall& fostered institutional coo"eration and "resented itself as an alternati3e to the 9. @egemon&J %heoretical ReVections on !hifting Po#er Patterns and Em"irical E3idence from 4atin 2mericaM. .uni-main=.-)*0). !usan McE#en-Fial is 4ecturer at the Ce"artment of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Main=. 2le/ander 7rand is 4ecturer and Post-Coc Researcher at the Ce"artment of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Main=. 2ndrea Ribeiro @offmann is 4ecturer at the Dill& 7randt !chool of Public Polic&.!. 9ni3ersit& of Erfurt.

the 7oli3arian Re"ublic8s "etroleum fueled 3ote bu&ing had alread& started to #ea5en .!. !"ring )*0E. manifest a desire for the region to resol3e intra-regional issues . "ositions on drug "olic& or Buestion the #isdom of its Cuba "olic& should not be mista5en for broad-based o""osition to the 9nited !tates. ProBuest. 2nd #hile 9N2!9R and CE42C are ambitious di"lomatic initiati3es.(&staina!le – A+F Ne# Drgani6ations (oft po#er in Latin America as 'ecline'/ !&t it isnCt e@tinct – ne# organi6ations arenCt f&nctional (a!atini/ 14 (Christo"her. %he& ma& reBuire more di"lomatic foot#or5 but the& are discussions largel& among allies. %ashma1 Ci"lomaticall&. . but a greater #illingness to challenge 9. LDI44 42%IN 2MERIC2 MI!! 9. Editor in Chief of 2mericas guarterl& and !enior Cirector of Polic& at the 2mericas !ociet& and the Council of the 2mericas. :olume ++.as #as seen at the )*0) !>2 in Cartagena. @EGEM>NG6. Colombia.M 'ournal of International 2ffairs. the region has become more contentious for the 9 nited !tates. Issue ). "g. both remain for no# Fust a ro3ing series of "residential summits. e3en before the death of Cha3e=.including securit& and human rights .inde"endentl& of the 9nited !tates. 2t the same time. #ith no institutional or normati3e basis or infrastructure. 7ut are the& u" to the tas56 Dhile 2472 remains a thorn in the side of the 9nited !tates. the emergence of the ne# subregional grou"ings such as the 9nion of !outh 2merican Nations (9N2!9R1 and the Communit& of 4atin 2merican and Caribbean !tates (CE42C1 that "ointedl& e/clude the 9nited !tates.es"eciall& as countries confronted their o#n internal challenges. %hese are legitimate "oints of debate . 0-a:I.!.

.

trade in 4atin 2merica during a militar& confrontation and ma& e3en "ressure 4atin 2merican countries to sto" trading in goods that $further$ the militar& efforts of the 9nited !tates. candidate at the 9ni3ersit& of Minnesota 4a# !chool.AC Fail&re to force C ina o&t of t e region 'estroys *2(2 international legitimacy --ma."df1 2 #ar bet#een China. le/is. %ai#an and the 9nited !tates of 2merica. it ma& need the bac5ing of 4atin 2merican countries in order to obtain international legitimac& at the 9nited Nations. . as #ell as all ot er co&ntries in the #orld that "artici"ate in the global econom&. LChina8s Economic and Political Clout Gro#s in 4atin 2merica at the E/"ense of 9. !ummer )**I.. both Koreas. 0(0 %hese actions ma& be considered "olitical Foc5e&ing.R 2s China8s need for oil and as its obsession #ith reining in %ai#an gro#s. Dhile a lac5 of 4atin 2merican "olitical su""ort ma& hurt the 9nited !tates.!..!. For e/am"le.es a +ai#an conflict ine"ita!le <ega/ : ('uan. India and Great 7ritain . the region8s logistical coo"eration #ith China ma& "ro3e fatal in the e3ent of a militar& confrontation #ith the 9nited !tates. man& countries other than the "rimar& actors could be affected b& such a conflict. built bases in order to $"rotect$ the canalN after all. Zb.!. China8s sale of militar& eBui"ment to Cuba ma& be in retaliation to the 9nited !tates selling arms to %ai#an. China ma& sabotage 9. It is also li5el& that China #ill not be seen as an aggressor and regarded instead as merel& reeling in its o#n %ai#anese citi=ens #ho could be considered outla#s for "ushing for secession. 2 more realistic confrontation ma& occur in the e3ent of a forceful reunification #ith %ai#an.$ detailing a "lan to use Chinese #arshi"s to im"ose oil embargoes on %ai#an.lam"-method. 0(* It also a""ears that China has set u" a "ermanent electronic sur3eillance "ost in Cuba.M 0. 0(+ In the e3ent of such a confrontation the loss of oil from 4atin 2merican countries ma& "ro3e lethal to the 9nited !tates. Interests. M. a Chinese com"an&. 0() Its electronic sur3eillance out"ost ma& be a "olitical res"onse to the 9nited !tates8s monitoring of Chinese communications from its s"& "lanes. Minn. 'a"an.C. China #ill continue using its economic "o#er to accom"lish Zb. #here China is the onl& communist countr& on the !ecurit& Council. Confrontation Dith China China has made militar& mo3es and arms deals that should raise #arning signs in the 9nited !tates. Panamanian legislators ma& create la#s eliminating such rights. Global %rade E((. %he Chinese militar& recentl& "ublished a boo5 entitled $4iberating %ai#an. %ashma1 I. L%he Chinese-%ai#anese ConflictJ Possible Futures of a Confrontation bet#een China.7. China has sold missile technolog& to Iran and deli3ered militar& eBui"ment to Cuba.M htt"J--###.*.2 at the 9ni3ersit& of Florida. 2ustralia. a so3ereign nation #hose economic trade is im"erati3e to continued economic gro#th in 4atin 2merica. and on the 9nited !tates.$ 0(. the 9nited !tates has had treat& obligations to "rotect %ai#an from mainland aggression. %he 9nited !tates. therefore.o"ic 0 W 2merican Militar& 9ni3ersit& (4ee '. on the other hand.*ER its o#n "olitical goals.!.org-eCommons-@un5o3ic. 0(I 2lthough the 9nited !tates has the right to "rotect the canal "ursuant to the treat& it signed #ith Panama. China has controlled the flo# of goods bet#een the 2tlantic and the Pacific >cean since @utchinson Dham"oa 4td. '.Impact – C ina War – . China8s control o3er the Panama Canal becomes more im"ortant. the Chinese ha3e filled the 3oid left in Cuba #hen the former !o3iet 9nion "ulled out. #as gi3en control of both the 2tlantic and Pacific "orts of the Panama Canal in 0??(. 0(E China "refers a "eaceful resolution but sa&s it #ill use force if necessar& to bring bac5 this $renegade "ro3ince. Glo!al n&clear #ar H&n. It is concei3able that Panamanian legislators ma& reBuest that the Chinese militar& mo3e into 9. Potential 4oss of Political and 4ogistical !u""ort in the E3ent of a 9. Fust ninet& miles from the 9nited !tates. if the& #ere dra#n into the #ar. If the 9nited !tates decides to stand firm. For se3eral decades. '. %ai#an and the 9nited !tates has the "otential to escalate into a nuclear conflict and a t ir' #orl' #ar. in #hich the 9nited !tates and China are the t#o most dominant members. ma& be seen as an aggressor meddling in the internal affairs of a so3ereign nation . including 'a"an. It is #it t is sense of &rgency t at t e *nited (tates s o&l' co&nter C ina7s gro#ing infl&ence b& offering fa3orable bilateral trade agreements and reconsidering the #isdom of its agricultural subsidies. Russia.

the Communist Part& is tightening its gri" on Chinese societ& and it is doubtful that China #ill trul& #elcome democratic "olicies.$ (E1 !ome of those #ho find enthusiasm for democrac& off-"utting ha3e challenged this "ro"osition. 0)0 Democracy is . but instead it chose to curtail democrac& b& "rohibiting elections for certain go3ernment "ositions in @ong Kong.n"ec-#eb.7. Indeed the "ro"osition that democracies do not go to #ar #ith one another has been described b& one "olitical scientist as being $as close as an&thing #e ha3e to an em"irical la# in international relations. %o reduce the data to a form that is Buantitati3el& measurable. 00X Man& of them are #illing to ta5e their chances #ith an authoritarian go3ernment. 7ut the declaration #as "urel& formalJ no fighting ensued bet#een England and Finland. #ere slo# to anger. In recent &ears a burgeoning literature has discussed the "eacefulness of democracies. . Dithin the councils of the 2rab 4eague. !urel& this is an e/ce"tion that "ro3es the rule. $%hat democracies are in general.and "erforce of nuclear "eace -.is the s"read of democrac&. fights in anger . . !ome regional and economic e/"erts belie3e that China #ill e3ol3e from an authoritarian regime to a successful democratic societ&. 9. but their challenges ha3e onl& ser3ed as em"irical tests that ha3e confirmed its robustness. For e/am"le. . Minn. after much "rocrastination. as distinguished an obser3er of international relations as George Kennan made a claim Buite contrar& to the first of these assertions.!. LChina8s Economic and Political Clout Gro#s in 4atin 2merica at the E/"ense of 9. ho#e3er.AC C inese ta. he said. Francis Fu5u&ama argued that democrac&8s e/tension #as leading to $the end of histor&. England did accede to the "ressure of its !o3iet all& to declare #ar against Finland #hich #as allied #ith German&. >nl& a fe# decades ago. Promotion of Cemocrac& in 4atin 2merica >ne maFor 9. nor ha3e the& seen the benefits of democrac&. '.M 'ul 00.1 In fact.org-s&llabi-mura3chi5. Cemocracies are not onl& slo# to anger but also Buic5 to com"romise.htm %he greatest im"etus for #orld "eace -.$ (01 Fu5u&ama8s "hrase #as intentionall& "ro3ocati3e. it is easier to determine #hether a conflict has occurred bet#een t#o states than #hose fault it #as.is a much more contro3ersial "ro"osition than 8merel&8 that democracies are "eaceful in their dealings #ith each other.$ he sa&s. candidate at the 9ni3ersit& of Minnesota 4a# !chool. one of the 2rab belligerents. 00( Man& 4atin 2mericans do not #ant to let the free forces of the mar5et dictate. . administrations ha3e not gi3en enough attention to this disturbing and gro#ing sentiment. In a famous article. 7ut the latter Buestion is all im"ortant. in dealing #ith all 5inds of states. but once aroused $a democrac& . M. interest is the "romotion of democrac& throughout 4atin 2merica. #as also democratic #ithin the confines of its "eculiar confessional di3ision of "o#er. 7ut subseBuent e/"erience.!. htt"J--###.M 0. 00+ China had a chance to sho# the #orld that it #ould mo3e to#ards democrac& ZbE?. Global %rade E((. (. 00I @o#e3er. more "eaceful than are authoritarian or other nondemocraticall& constituted states . !ummer )**I. E3en so. to the bitter end. as did !outh Korea and 'a"an.R #hen it too5 control of @ong Kong in 0???. . Israel #as an embr&onic democrac& and 4ebanon. Not#ithstanding the insistence on unconditional surrender. %he strongest e/ce"tion I can thin5 of is the #ar bet#een the nascent state of Israel and the 2rabs in 0?. . %hus. . . it o""osed the #ar but #ent along #ith its larger confreres #hen the& o"ted to attac5. . 1 W Resident !cholar at 2merican Enter"rise Institute 'oshua. China is a communist countr& that considers democrac& an im"ediment to "rogress. Neither "oint has gone unchallenged. e3en tongue-in-chee5. 2merica treated 'a"an and that "art of German& that it occu"ied #ith e/traordinar& generosit&.ey to sol"e for e@tinction %&ra"c i. %he trouble #ith such studies.$ ()1 Kennan8s 3ie# #as strongl& influenced b& the "olic& of $unconditional surrender$ "ursued in Dorld Dar II. (I1 Russett cites his o#n and other statistical e/"lorations #hich sho# that #hile democracies rarel& fight one another the& often fight against others.Impact – Democracy – . 7uchanan ha3e both instanced democratic England8s declaration of #ar against democratic Finland during Dorld Dar II. Interests. Cemocracies. 0)* Get. %he "olitical scientist 7ruce Russett offers a different challenge to the notion that democracies are more "eaceful. 4ebanon. democracies nominall& #ent to #ar against democracies #hen the& #ere dragged into conflicts b& authoritarian allies. but he also meant the $diminution of the li5elihood of large-scale conflict bet#een states. and subseBuent boo5.!.2 at the 9ni3ersit& of Florida. is that the& rarel& e/amine the Buestion of #ho started or caused a #ar.$ 7& this he meant the conclusion of man8s Buest for the right social order. '. 4ebanon did little fighting and soon sued for "eace. as in the case of England against Finland. such as the negotiated settlements 2merica sought in Korea and :ietnam "ro3ed him #rong. #as a reluctant "art& to the fight. the academic Paul Gottfried and the columnist-turned-"olitician Patric5 '. LCemocrac& and nuclear "eace. 00? 4atin 2merican "residents are freBuentl& forced to resign and are re"laced b& leftist grou"s that o""ose globali=ation. in the case of 4ebanon against Israel. .eo"er lea's to a transition a#ay from 'emocracy in Latin America <ega/ : ('uan. but he #as "ointing to t#o do#n-to-earth historical obser3ationsJ that democracies are more "eaceful than other 5inds of go3ernment and that the #orld is gro#ing more democratic.X. ho#e3er. %ashma1 E.C. 2nd to forgi3e. and one for #hich there is little s&stematic e3idence. le/is.

I "ercent. li5e others. None #ould dis"ute that Na"oleon #as res"onsible for the Na"oleonic #ars or @itler for Dorld Dar II in Euro"e. the "acific inclination of democracies. !o the choice $don8t go at all$ (001 is rarel& realistic in the contem"orar& #orld. the other that it la& in the democratic ethos (the $cultural-normati3e model$1.Cemocracies ma& often go to #ar against dictatorshi"s because the dictators see them as "re& or underestimate their resol3e.$ (X1 7ut this 3alid insight is incom"lete. !ince then. North Korea almost surel& discounted the li5elihood of an 2merican militar& res"onse to its in3asion of the !outh after !ecretar& of !tate Cean 2cheson "ublicl& defined 2merica8s defense "erimeter to e/clude the Korean "eninsula (a declaration #hich merel& confirmed e/isting 9. >ne interesting "iece of Russett8s research should hel" to "oint him a#a& from his doubts that democracies are more "eaceful in general. %he Cold Dar ended almost instantl&--as he no doubt 5ne# it #ould. had it reali=ed that England #ould fight to 3indicate 7elgian neutralit& and to su""ort France. difficulties if the democratic "rocess had de3elo"ed normall& in our countr&. %his raises the "ossibilit& that the effects the& #ere obser3ing #ere caused sim"l& b& "olitical change "er se. but there are se3eral cases #here dictators ha3e done so. Russett sa&s that those #ho claim democracies are in general more "eaceful $#ould ha3e us belie3e that the 9nited !tates #as regularl& on the defensi3e. $De #ould ha3e been able to a3oid man& . %o do this. %he& note that $in ZsomeR recent cases. German& might ha3e beha3ed more cautiousl& in the summer of 0?0. Cemocrac& is not Fust a mechanismN it entails a s"irit of com"romise and self-restraint. democracies ha3e turned to #ar in the face of "ro3ocation. he turned the !o3iet 9nion a#a& from its historic course. %here is a dee"er e/"lanation. such as Israel8s in3asion of 4ebanon in 0?X) to root out an enem& s#orn to its destruction or %ur5e&8s in3asion of C&"rus to rebuff a "o#er-grab b& Gree5 nationalists. %he Euro"ean "o#ers conBuered most of 2frica and 2sia. such as IraB8s in3asion of Ku#ait. countries become more aggressi3e and #ar-"rone. the rule seems to beJ go full& democratic. and the in3aders #ere greeted #ith Fo& b& the Grenadan citi=enr&. . Finall&. %he big e/ce"tion to this rule is colonialism. .$ a more demanding criterion. ho#e3er tin&. a large number are e/"eriencing some degree of democrati=ation or hea3& "ressure in that direction. from the !o3iet game board. In "articular #e should consider #hat in Catholic 'ust Dar doctrine is called $right intention. or rather to forecast. No doubt man& of the instances of democracies at #ar that enter into the statistical calculations of researchers li5e Russett stem from the colonial era. %he structural-institutional model sometimes "ro3ides a significant relationshi" but often does not. the 9nited !tates ma& ha3e initiated some s5irmishes (although in fact it rarel& did1. in contrast to some of our historical results. . there #ere often moti3es other than aggrandi=ement. Immanuel Kant #as the first to obser3e. 2t bottom. . and continued to hold their "ri=es as Euro"e democrati=ed. %he !o3iet "olic& #as $class #arfare$N the 2merican "olic& #as $containment. Nations that embrace this ethos in the conduct of their domestic affairs are naturall& more "redis"osed to embrace it in their dealings #ith other nations. 2 different 5ind of challenge to the thesis that democracies are more "eaceful has been "osed b& the "olitical scientists Ed#ard G. . an& effect the& re"ort. In other cases. that the #orld is gro#ing more .$ he #rote.I "ercent of e/tant go3ernments #ere chosen in legitimate elections.$ 7ut that is not Buite rightJ the #ord $regularl&$ distorts the issue. during the Cold Dar. In contrast. Indeed. 2 3ictim can sometimes turn the tables on an aggressor. %he citi=ens and officials of democracies recogni=e that other states. rather than b& democrati=ation. Russett aimed to e/"lain #h& democracies are more "eaceful to#ard one another. 4ater. the #ars launched b& dictators. #ould not that ethos also ma5e them more "eaceful in general6 Russett im"lies that the ans#er is no.$ 7ut according to Freedom @ouse. democrac& is the #illingness to resol3e ci3il dis"utes #ithout recourse to 3iolence. In 0??*. !addam @ussein8s decision to s#allo# Ku#ait #as "robabl& encouraged b& the inference he must ha3e ta5en from the statements and actions of 2merican officials that Dashington #ould offer no forceful resistance. . North Korea8s of !outh Korea. 7ut Mi5hail Gorbache3 made nonsense of their theories #hen.$ (0*1 @o#e3er. @is statistical assessments led him to conclude thatJ $almost al#a&s the cultural-normati3e model sho#s a consistent effect on conflict occurrence and #ar. he constructed t#o models. ((1 %o render Fudgment about the relati3e "eacefulness of states or s&stems. the !o3iet 9nion8s of @ungar& and 2fghanistan. e3en if accuratel& inter"reted. !o in the Cold Dar. . the& ac5no#ledge that their research re3ealed not onl& an increased li5elihood for a state to become in3ol3ed in a #ar #hen it #as gro#ing more democratic. @itler #as emboldened b& his notorious contem"t for the flabbiness of the democracies. 2in thZeR transitional "hase of democrati=ation.$ %he so-called re3isionist historians argued that 2merica bore an eBual or larger share of res"onsibilit& for the conflict. in the name of glasnost and "erestroi5a. ha3e legitimate interests. %he& claim statistical su""ort for the "ro"osition that #hile full& fledged democracies ma& be "acific. such e/am"les abound.!. $ (?1 If it is the ethos that ma5es democratic states more "eaceful to#ard each other. and it #as abandoned after Dorld Dar II. calling do#n on themsel3es all the miseries of #ar. I 5no# of no case #here a democrac& has initiated #arfare #ithout significant "ro3ocation or for reasons of sheer aggrandi=ement. 7ut colonialism #as a legac& of Euro"e8s "redemocratic times.$ #hich means roughl&J #hat did the& ho"e to get out of it6 In the fe# cases in recent times in #hich #ars #ere initiated b& democracies. the& measure a state8s li5elihood of becoming in3ol3ed in a #ar but do not re"ort attem"ting to determine the cause or fault. namel&. %hese statistics also contain the ans#er to those #ho doubt the second "ro"osition behind Fu5u&ama8s forecast. (0)1 (%his is a much larger "ro"ortion than are adFudged b& Freedom @ouse to be $free states. 2fter organi=ing an election. and it includes man& #ea5l& democratic states. often ha3e aimed at conBuest or subFugation. #hen 2merica in3aded Grenada. for e/am"le. 2merica "ulled out.1 >f the remaining E(. #e must as5 not onl& #ho started a #ar but #h&. ho#e3er go3erned. but that does not ma5e the 3ictim eBuall& bellicose. because to his mind a critical element in the "eaceful beha3ior of democracies to#ard other democracies is their antici"ation of a conciliator& attitude b& their counter"art. "rimaril& its concern for the #ell-being of 2merican nationals and its desire to remo3e a chi". "olic&1. @e aimed to e/"lain #h& democracies are more "eaceful to#ard each other. not less. >ne h&"othesi=ed that the cause la& in the mechanics of democratic decision-ma5ing (the $structural-institutional model$1. ma& not hold in the contem"orar& #orld. 7ut 2merica had no designs u"on Grenada. %here is no reason to su""ose that an& such relationshi" is go3erned b& an immutable la#. #ill ha3e a great hesitation in . but the struggle as a #hole #as dri3en one-sidedl&. but an almost eBual increase for states gro#ing less democratic. rarel& on the offensi3e. the& im"licitl& ac5no#ledge that the relationshi" of democrati=ation and "eacefulness ma& change o3er historical "eriods. Dashington #as im"elled b& selfinterest more than altruism. 7ut this is too "at. @e reasoned that $citi=ens . %he attitude of li3e-and-let-li3e cannot be turned on and off li5e a s"igot. and the& are dis"osed to tr& to accommodate those interests e/ce"t #hen the other "art&8s beha3ior seems threatening or outrageous. !ince their em"irical base reaches bac5 to 0X00. or don8t go at all. %o be sure. but after a time their 3ictims sei=ed the offensi3e. Moreo3er. Mansfield and 'ac5 !n&der. some +).

#ere democratic in 0??*. !o it must be for the #orld as a #hole. #e ma& be in a 5ind of race bet#een the emergence or gro#th of nuclear arsenals and the ad3ent of democrati=ation. the $third #a3e$ has not abated. #ould be misleading. In other #ords. ho#e3er. %he additional 0*0 states counted in 0??* #ere mostl& former colonies. %he second #a3e. it #ill run until the around the &ear )0)I. If this is so. Further. @untington does. but this #as obscured b& as5ing #hat "ercentage of states #ere democratic. Ces"ite the bac5sliding. %he "ro"ortion of states that #ere democratic in 0??* (. the o3erall trend remains "o#erful and clear. For other ominous corners of the #orld. In 0((I. the number of democracies #as =ero. but a "eo"le #ho #ere subFected to a foreign dictator did not count at all. bringing the second #a3e to its end. !o man& "eo"les #ere s#e"t u" in the democratic tide that there #as certain to be some bac5sliding.I "ercent. or e3en de3ised a better "olitical s&stem. 2s5ing the Buestion this #a& means that a "eo"le #ho #ere subFected to a domestic dictator counted as a non-democrac&. there #as "rogress all around. "resent a statistic that seems to #eigh hea3il& against an& unidirectional inter"retation of democratic "rogress. but since 3irtuall& none of those #ere democratic in 0?)). ho#e3er.democratic. %he %hird Da3eJ Cemocrati=ation in the 4ate %#entieth Centur&. @untington8s meta"hor im"lies a lac5 of o3erall "rogress or direction. %his "rogress offers a source of ho"e for enduring nuclear "eace. !ince then. @o# long should #e e/"ect the third to endure6 If it is li5e the second. Da3es rise and fall. albeit a substantial one. #hile the criteria for Fudging a state democratic 3ar&. !uch an im"ression. and the& #ere not counted as states.I "ercent of states #ere democratic in 0??* corres"onds #ith Freedom @ouse8s count of $democratic$ "olities (as o""osed to its smaller count of $free$ countries. In short. %he difference #as that in 0?)) most "eo"les li3ed in colonies. colla"sed into dictatorshi" b& the 0?+*s. Moreo3er. >f those. a more demanding criterion1. %hat Freedom @ouse could count 0)* freel& elected go3ernments b& earl& )**0 (out of a total of 0?) inde"endent states1 bes"ea5s a 3ast transformation in human go3ernance #ithin the s"an of ))I &ears. 2nd b& then--#ho 5no#s6-"erha"s man5ind #ill ha3e incinerated itself.. #as identical to the "ro"ortion in 0?)). %he danger of nuclear #ar #as radicall& reduced almost o3ernight #hen Russia abandoned Communism and turned to democrac&. #ith greatest momentum since 0?(. @untington sa&s that the democrati=ation trend that began in the mid-0?(*s in Portugal. he sa&s. destined to be remembered as one of the most re3olutionar& &ears in all histor&. %he first lasted about 0I* &ears. most of the gro#th ha3ing occurred #ithin the t#entieth centur&. Freedom @ouse no# sa&s that the "ro"ortion of democracies has gro#n to +).I_1. 7ut each of the re3erses that follo#ed @untington8s t#o #a3es #as brief. notabl& in 2frica. in this telling. statesN in 0??* there #ere 0+I. t#o thirds had become democratic b& 0??*. and each ne# #a3e raised the number of democracies higher than before. %he +. coming to an end in the inter#ar &ears #hen much of Euro"e regressed bac5 to fascist or militar& dictatorshi". >ne unsatisf&ing thing about @untington8s $#a3es$ is their une3enness. Most of these. follo#ed Dorld Dar II #hen #holesale decoloni=ation ga3e rise to a raft of ne# democracies. >nl& a minorit&. the statistic that . that #as also a significant gain. the number and "ro"ortion of democracies stands higher toda& than e3er before. the greatest cause for #orr& ma& rest #ith the Moslem Middle East #here nuclear arsenals do not &et e/ist but #here the "ros"ects for democrac& ma& be still more remote. %he first $#a3e$ of democrati=ation began #ith the 2merican re3olution and lasted through the aftermath of Dorld Dar I. 7ut b& this same count. #hich #as a significant gain. it #ill ebb an& da& no#. (0E1 7ut there are t#o ans#ers to this. Most countries8 democratic e3olution has included some fits and starts rather than a smooth "rogression. #as ine3itable. but if it is li5e the first. In 0((+. %hat this momentum has slac5ened some#hat since its "innacle in 0?X?. states of that time #ere mostl& the ad3anced countries. the birth of the 9nited !tates of 2merica brought the total u" to one. the second about )*. Greece and !"ain is the third such e"isode. . mo3ed to another "lanet. Nonetheless. 7ut the number of "eo"les had not gro#n a""reciabl&. !5e"tics ha3e dra#n u"on !amuel @untington8s fine boo5. democrac& has s"read at an accelerating "ace. In 0?)) there #ere onl& +. %hose #ho follo# @untington8s argument ma& ta5e the failure of democrac& in se3eral of the former !o3iet re"ublics and some other instances of bac5sliding since 0?X? to signal the end of the third #a3e.

0)( China ma& be able to de3elo" greater clout relati3e to the 9nited !tates #ith small countries that de"end on the te/tile industr&. Chinese manufacturers ha3e been gaining mar5et share in industries #here Me/ico lost mar5et share.!. Interests.Impact – En"ironment – . and an Economic 2lternati3e Dhile the 9nited !tates has "ro3isions for en3ironmental standards in its trade agreements. 0). 2s Phili" @oose remar5s. %ashma1 .e o"er Latin American economies an' ignore en"ironmental stan'ar's <ega/ : ('uan. candidate at the 9ni3ersit& of Minnesota 4a# !chool.M 0. National Research Council. 0)+ China has erased man& of Me/ico8s economic ad3antages that the 9nited !tates and Me/ico had #or5ed hard for &ears to obtain under N2F%2. 0)E Chronic res"irator& disease has become the ZbE?IR leading cause of death in the countr&. 0)X Poor countries that de"end on the te/tile industr& #ill earn lo#er "rices for their e/"orts and #ill ha3e to "a& higher "rices for their ra# materials. 0)I 7& mid-)**E. M. $Plants and animals cannot tell us #hat the& mean to each other. China sur"assed Me/ico as the second-largest su""lier of goods to the 9nited !tates. " 0((1 Massi3e e/tinction of s"ecies is dangerous. '.C. 0?0E. le/is. Mar5et !hare.!.es2 . it dri3es do#n the "rice of its e/"orts and it increases the "rice of ra# materials that it im"orts.$ Dne can ne"er !e s&re # ic species ol's &p f&n'amental !iological relations ips in t e planetary ecosystem2 An'/ !eca&se remo"ing species is an irre"ersi!le act/ it may !e too late to sa"e t e system after the e/tinction of 5e& "lants or animals. En"ironmental 'estr&ction ca&ses e@tinction Warner/ 0E (Paul Warner.2 at the 9ni3ersit& of Florida.AC C inese egemonic control o"er t e region 'egra'es t e en"ironment --. 2ugust.t eyCll ta. Minn. Politics and 4ife !ciences. En3ironmental !tandards. it is 'o&!tf&l t at C ina #ill let en"ironmental concerns slo# its economic progress in Latin America2 0)) China has e/"erienced economic gro#th at the e/"ense of its en3ironment. $%he ramifications of an ecological change of this magnitude Z3ast e/tinction of s"eciesR are so far reaching that no one on earth #ill esca"e them. containing nine of the #orld8s ten most "olluted cities. Global %rade E((. because one cannot "redict #hich s"ecies are e/"endable to the s&stem as a #hole. !ummer )**I.$ +rifling #it t e Hli"esH of species is li. 0)? China has an im"ortant bargaining chi" #ith these countries that the 9nited !tates does not. LChina8s Economic and Political Clout Gro#s in 4atin 2merica at the E/"ense of 9. 2ccording to the 9.e playing 9&ssian ro&lette/ #it o&r collecti"e f&t&re as t e sta. 2merican 9ni3ersit&. 2s China im"orts great Buantities of ra# materials and e/"orts labor-intensi3e manufactured goods. then.7. Ce"t of International Politics and Foreign Polic&.. '.

htt"J--###. there are o"timists and "essimists. retrenchment that #ould intensif& securit& dilemmas. FF1 Mo3ing be&ond criticism. Dinter )*0E."df. nuclear "roliferation and associated "re3enti3e #artem"tations. the balance begins tos#ing to#ard "essimists concerned that states currentl& bac5ed b& Dashington H notabl& Israel. :ol. For one thing. there is no consensus on the net securit& effects of 9. "o#er dam"ens the baleful effects of anarch& is consistent #ith influential 3ariants of realist theor&. both !outh Korea and %ai#an mo3ed to a . reducing their incenti3e to ado"t solutions to their securit& "roblems that threaten others and thus sto5e securit& dilemmas. a regional conflict a5in to the 0??*s 7al5an #ars1.. arguabl& the scariest "ortra&al of the #ar-"rone #orld that #ould emerge absent the L2merican PacifierM is "ro3ided in the #or5s of 'ohn Mearsheimer. but t#o ca"ture most of the 3ariationJ (01 9. Fe# e/"erts e/"ect a return of intense great "o#er com"etition in a "ost-2merican Euro"e. each of these res"onses is nonetheless a #ea5er argument for retrenchment than ad3ocates ac5no#ledge. #ould "reser3e 9! interests b& im"ro3ing 2merica’s image.00+)-I!ECQaQ**0*(. ) No. and "ros"erit& in the #estern hemis"here. GCI FileR 2 core "remise of dee" engagement is that it "re3ents the emergence of a far more dangerous global securit& en3ironment. that might gi3e decisionma5ers "ause before ma5ing this bet. *( primacy pre"ents glo!al conflict – 'iminis ing po#er creates a "ac&&m t at ca&ses transition #ars in m&ltiple places Broo. (E Cefensi3e realists maintain that the high e/"ected costs of territorial conBuest. "essimismregarding the region’s "ros"ects #ithout the 2merican "acifier is "ronounced. interest.ey to s&staining eg in t e rest of t e #orl' (anc e6 an' ( olar 1. regional ri3alries. the bul5 of #hom are realists. @e is also a Global Eminence !cholar at K&ung @ee 9ni3ersit&.Impact – Glo!al Hegemony – . "articularl& in regions #here the 5inds of stabili=ers that nonrealist theories "oint toHsuch as democratic go3ernance or dense institutional lin5agesHare either absent or #ea5l& "resent. defense dominance. 2mericaJ %he Case against RetrenchmentM.!. #e then "ro"ose se3eral concrete changes to 9! "olic& that #ould enhance 2merica’s S ethical stance to#ard 4atin 2merica. Eg&"t. %here are three other maFor bodies of scholarshi". and !audi 2rabiaHmight ta5e actions u"on 9. and an arra& of "olicies and "ractices that can be used credibl& to signal benign intent. )EN Cecember )*0)N htt"J--###. and economic interests S (@siang. )**E. Dhat about the other "arts of Eurasia #here the 9nited !tates has a substantial militar& "resence6 Regarding the Middle East. %hese modest "olic& S recommendations. Perha"s more im"ortant. Pages (I0. lac5s ca"acit& for global securit& missions in #hich 9.!. Dohlforth is the Caniel Debster Professor in the Ce"artment of Go3ernment at Cartmouth College. If Dashington cannot secure its 5e& interests and be "ercei3ed "ositi3el& in the Destern S @emis"here.iFhssnet.g. as noted abo3e.AC Dominance in Latin America is . and is 3ulnerable to the influence of outside rising "o#ers. Regarding each region. and e3en runs at regional hegemon& and full-scale great "o#er #ar. discount this benefit6 %heir arguments are com"licated.mit"ressFournals.G. (. No. democrac&.. Retrenchment #ould be a bet on this scholarshi". 2rguabl& the "rinci"al concern e/"ressed b& area e/"erts is that 'a"an and !outh Korea are li5el& to o!tain a n&clear capacity and increase their militar& commitments.Dilliam C. Megan !holar is a PhC ` 4o&ola 9ni3ersit& in Chicago. Indeed. Peter !anche=(PhC1 is a Professor P Graduate Program Cirector (GPC1 ` 4o&ola 9ni3ersit& in Chicago. if enacted. E(. Each res"onse is connected to a different theor& or set of theories.!. #hich ma5es sense gi3en that the #hole debate hinges on a com"le/ future counterfactual (#hat #ould ha""en to Eurasia’s securit& setting if the 9nited !tates trul& disengaged61. then attaining goals in the rest of the #orld #ill be a "i"e dream. () @o# do retrenchment ad3ocates. %he contention that engaged 9.s et al 14 Z!te"hen G. %he result might be Euro"e that is inca"able of securing itself from 3arious threats that could be destabili=ing #ithin the region and be&ond (e.!. I?-+*1. 'ohn I5enberr& is the 2lbert G. 7roo5s is 2ssociate Professor of Go3ernment at Cartmouth College. (LPo#er and Princi"leJ 2 Ne# 9! Polic& for 4atin 2mericaMN International 'ournal of @umanities and !ocial !cience :ol. In essence #e "ro3ide a "rescri"tion that S sho#s ho# a Great Po#er’s "olicies should change once it becomes a hegemonic "o#er. leaders might #ant Euro"ean "artici"ation.!.com-Fournals-:olQ)QNoQ)EQCecemberQ)*0)-E. 2lthough a certain ans#er is im"ossible.!. Milban5 Professor of Politics and International 2ffairs at Princeton 9ni3ersit& in the Ce"artment of Politics and the Doodro# Dilson !chool of Public and International 2ffairs. securit& guarantees are not necessar& to "re3ent dangerous ri3alries and conflict in EurasiaN or ()1 "re3ention of ri3alr& and conflict in Eurasia is not a 9. geo"olitical. ho#e3er. the 9nited !tates’ o3erseas "resence gi3es it the le3erage to restrain "artners from ta5ing "ro3ocati3e action. an also result in S enhanced securit&. E. mean that Eurasia’s maFor states could manage regional multi"olarit& "eacefull& #ithout the2merican "acifier. #hich could sto5e a 'esta!ili6ing reaction from C ina . #ithdra#al. #ho forecasts dangerous multi"olar regions re"lete #ith securit& com"etition. %a5ing these ste"s is im"ortant for the S 9nited !tates because 4atin 2merica remains a "ital region for *( strategic. thereb& enhancing 9! hegemon&. its core alliance commitments also deter states #ith as"irations to regional hegemon& from contem"lating e/"ansion and ma5e its "artners more secure. arms races. It is notable that during the Cold Dar. %he first res"onse flo#s from defensi3e realism as #ell as other international relations theories that discount the conflict-generating "otential of anarch& under contem"orar& conditions. Needless to sa&. but man& doubt Euro"ean go3ernments #ill "a& the "olitical costs of increased E9 defense coo"eration and the budgetar& costs of increasing militar& outla&s. First is regional e/"ertise. 2nd concerning East 2sia. LCon8t Come @ome.org-doi-abs-0*.

%ashma1 For man& &ears during the Cold Dar. 0.!.2 at the 9ni3ersit& of Florida. De ha3e alread& mentioned the third. "redicting that in the ne/t fi3e &ears technolog& manufacturing #ill be centered there.C.* In the e3ent of a confrontation. Curing the "ast fi3e &ears. the %hird Dorld #as a battleground for t#o su"er"o#ers6the 9nited !tates and the former !o3iet 9nion. Dhen the !o3iet 9nion fell. ho#e3er.M 0. initiati3es in trade. #ith securit& defined narro#l& in terms of "rotection from 3iolent e/ternal attac5s on the homeland. (+ In addition. le/is. retrenchment #ould result in a significant deterioration in the securit& en3ironment in at least some of the #orld’s 5e& regions.*** e/"ort-oriented Fobs.$ ) %he 9nited !tates hel"ed 4atin 2merican countries gain their inde"endence from !"ain and later in the t#entieth centur&. communist China ma& ha3e similar le3erage o3er 4atin 2merica n countries. Global %rade E((. M. Interests. Chinese 4e3erage Dith China8s gro#ing s"here of influence and economic clout comes le3erage that it ma& use to frustrate 9. or bids for regional hegemon&. manufacturers ha3e o"ened factories in China. Cefensi3e realism’s o"timism about #hat #ould ha""en if the 9nited !tates retrenched is 3er& much de"endent on its"articularHand highl& restricti3eHassum"tion about state "referencesN once #e rela/ this assum"tion. 9nder that assum"tion. M. and offense is e/tremel& e/"ensi3e relati3e to defense. >ffensi3e realism "redicts that the #ithdra#al of the 2merican "acifier #ill &ield either a com"etiti3e regional multi"olarit& com"lete #ith associated insecurit&. nuclear "roliferation . Interests.!. en3ironmental safeguards. 0E? 9. candidate at the 9ni3ersit& of Minnesota 4a# !chool. Minn. '.7. LChina8s Economic and Political Clout Gro#s in 4atin 2merica at the E/"ense of 9. '. billion #orth of goods to the 9nited !tates and im"orts onl& [ )* billion from the 9nited !tates. %hese t#o nations fought to e/ert their influence throughout 4atin 2merica in order to gain "olitical.0 %he 9nited !tates must reali=e that the Chinese threat is real and it must . #hich ma& be be&ond the ca"acit& of local great "o#ers to contain (and #hich in an& case #ould generate intensel& com"etiti3e beha3ior. If Chinese economic "o#er sur"asses that of the 9nited !tates. candidate at the 9ni3ersit& of Minnesota 4a# !chool. 4atin 2merican countries ma& no longer feel the need to coo"erate #ith 9.!. and other aims. It follo#s that e3en states that are relati3el& secure ma& ne3ertheless engage in highl& com"etiti3e beha3ior. assisted them in the "rocess of democrati=ation. economic. 0E( Much li5e the former !o3iet 9nion8s "o#erful control o3er its $member$ countries. China has ste""ed into the 3oid left b& these t#o retreating su"er"o#ers. a bet on a benign "ostretrenchment Eurasia is a bet that leaders of maFor countries #ill ne3er allo# these nonsecurit& "references to influence their strategic choices.2 at the 9ni3ersit& of Florida. '. the "rediction of "ost-2merican tranBuilit& throughout Eurasia rests on the assum"tion that securit& is the onl& rele3ant state "reference. (I %he second bod& of scholarshi" casting doubt on the bet on defensi3e realism’s sanguine "ortra&al is all of the research that undermines its conce"tion of state "references. it gains economic and "olitical influence at the e/"ense of 9. Global %rade E((. E !table democracies in 4atin 2merica reduce regional crises and increase coo"eration. 7urgeoning C ina is o"erta. LChina8s Economic and Political Clout Gro#s in 4atin 2merica at the E/"ense of 9.!. '. 0. interests. !ummer )**I.!. interests and to gain su""ort for di"lomatic. "ossibl& including regional great "o#er #ar1.obtain a nuclear #ea"ons ca"acit& and #ere onl& constrained from doing so b& astill-engaged 9nited !tates. %ashma1 C. "olitical. crisis instabilit&. 0 2s China increases and solidifies economic ties to the region and secures oil.*2(2 co&l'nCt oppose C ina <ega/ : ('uan. minerals.!. the securit& "roblem is largel& sol3ed as research across the social and other sciences. !"ecificall&. arms racing. the 9nited !tates needs a stable 4atin 2merica in order to assure itself an im"ortant source of regional oil. (( In sum. human rights. le/is.ely to fin' an attracti"e alternati"e to economic tra'e t at is not contingent &pon *2(2 interests2 %he Monroe Coctrine "roclaimed that the Destern @emis"here is $2merica8s bac5&ard. "olitical.C.undermines that core assum"tionJ states ha3e "references not onl& for securit& but also for "restige. an' *2(2 national sec&rity2 In ZbE(XR C ina/ Latin America is li. Increase' C inese infl&ence 'estroys *2(2 egemony --.!. !ummer )**I. and the li5e. soon as offense and defense are clearl& distinguishable. then much of its basis for o"timism 3anishes.M 0. If China reaches this le3el of influence and if the 9nited !tates confronts China on an economic. 9. and militar& clout. the 9nited !tates lost interest in its relationshi" #ith 4atin 2merican countries. and other commodities from this region. %o the degree that these bodies of scholarl& 5no#ledge ha3e "redicti3e le3erage.ing *2(2 infl&ence in Latin America --.7. %oda&. Minn. antinarcotics. and the&engage in trade-offs among the 3arious obFecti3es. status . and "erha"s militar& ZbE?(R initiati3es. the& define securit& not Fust in terms of territorial "rotection but in 3ie# of man& and 3aried milieu goals . or militar& matter.'estroys glo!al egemony <ega/ : ('uan. Em"irical studies sho# that this is indeed sometimes the case. t e *nited (tates itself may not !e in a position to oppose C ina2 %he trade dis"arit& bet#een the 9nited !tates and China is the greatest of an& countr& "air in the #orldJ China e/"orts [ 00. no 4atin 2merican countr& could economicall& afford to o""ose China. the 9nited !tates ma& lose 0**. 0EX Moreo3er. e3en more alarming bod& of scholarshi". .

e/amine its o#n "olicies to#ards 4atin 2merica before China8s le3erage can no longer be countered. .

it is e3ident that regional democrac& is unstable. 9nli5e the moderate. Dhile some dictators or communist leaders are benign. 0. C ina7s gro#ing infl&ence in Latin America represents a ris. there is no "olitical safeguard that #ill "re3ent future. but to "reser3e the human race. le/is. ca"italism. the 7ataan Ceath March. 9ni3ersal Ceclaration of @uman Rights. M. to &nsta!le 'emocracies in t e region2 If unchec5ed. 0I* %here is a common misconce"tion that.2 at the 9ni3ersit& of Florida.**R (#ith the e/ce"tion of Cuba1. $communist$ countries ha3e actuall& been ruthless in their "ursuit of "art& lo&alt& and obedience. %ashma1 ).C. LChina8s Economic and Political Clout Gro#s in 4atin 2merica at the E/"ense of 9. In the e3ent that citi=ens "rotest. non-democratic leaders #ill Buic5l& silence dissidents and continue to act #ith im"unit&. Man& also reali=ed that ad3ances in technolog& and changes in social structures had rendered #ar a threat to the continued e/istence of the human race.Impact – H&man 9ig ts – . tortured.t at specifically correlates to #i'esprea' &man rig ts a!&ses <ega/ : ('uan. 0II Dhile the 9nited !tates often offers trade incenti3es as a re#ard for adherence to "rinci"les of human rights. 4atin 2merican 3oters ma& begin to belie3e that communism can reall& #or5. #as found to relie3e the lot of these "eo"le. re3elations coming from the Nuremberg #ar crimes trials. 9nli5e Karl Mar/8s stateless. not onl& for the sa5e of the indi3iduals and countries in3ol3ed.. 0I. communist nation. and globali=ation. 0IE 2s China in3ests hea3il& in the region.org-intro. Interests.M 0. China8s economic "rominence #ill cause fragile democracies in 4atin 2merica to thin5 t#ice about the su""osed benefits of democrac&. 4arge numbers of "eo"le in man& countries li3ed under the control of t&rants. elected leaders are held accountable b& their constituents.hr#eb. democrac& is "ermanent. For "erha"s the first time. histor& has "ro3en that the dictatorshi" of the "roletariat has in fact su""ressed e/"ression. Communist China offers 4atin 2merican countries an o""ortunit& to see the economic benefits of such a s&stem.html1 %he 9nited Nations Charter.ely to 'isregar' s&c re1&irements2 0I+ E@tinction H9W/ 0E (@uman Rights Deb. Global %rade E((. (-)*. and la#-abiding outloo5 that intellectuals had for communism in the beginning of the t#entieth centur&. '. there are no such chec5s and balances. and 5illed their neighbors. ha3ing no recourse but #ar to relie3e often intolerable li3ing conditions . re"resentati3es from the maForit& of go3ernments in the #orld came to the conclusion that basic human rights must be "rotected. e3olutionar&.!. bringing Fobs and "ro3iding access to 4atin 2merican "roducers for o3er one-and-a-half billion Chinese consumers. C ina is li. !ummer )**I. %he 3ices of communism ha3e been e3ident throughout the t#entieth centur&. 0??. 9nless some #a& could re3olt and become the catal&st for another #ide-scale and "ossibl& nuclear #ar. 2 #hole lot of "eo"le in a number of countries had a crisis of conscience and found the& could no longer loo5 the other #a& #hile t&rants Failed. Cemocrac& and @uman Rights In a democratic countr&.? %he safest #a& to ensure "eace and coo"eration is to "romote democrac& and res"ect for human rights. and other horrors smaller in magnitude but not in im"act on the indi3iduals the& affected. 0I0 7ased on the re3ersing trends of the "ast four &ears. htt"J--###.AC C inese egemony in Latin America 'estroys regional 'emocracies --. male3olent leaders from ta5ing aggressi3e action against their o#n "eo"le or other countries. L2n Introduction to the @uman Rights Mo3ementM. and 9N @uman Rights con3enants #ere #ritten and im"lemented in the aftermath of the @olocaust. 0I) 2s more socialist "residents are elected throughout 4atin 2merica and faith in the benefits of democrac& and ca"italism diminish. human rights. classless. '. the atomic bomb. and other freedoms that "eo"le hold dear. since 4atin 2merican countries are democracies Zb. candidate at the 9ni3ersit& of Minnesota 4a# !chool.7. 4atin 2mericans ma& begin to fa3or authoritarian regimes. In an authoritarian or communist countr&. the& . Minn.

fail&re to re"erse C inese infl&ence in t e region ren'ers *2(2 efforts to c&rtail &man rig ts a!&ses &seless <ega/ : ('uan.Impact – H&man 9ig ts – 1A9 ItCs 6ero-s&m --. Global %rade E((. li5e the !udan. In contrast. candidate at the 9ni3ersit& of Minnesota 4a# !chool. '. C ina7s economic in"estments in ot er co&ntries. some of the sur3i3ing students remain in "rison as do man& "olitical "risoners. Interests.7. 7eiFing. le/is. !ummer )**I. 0?X? in %iananmen !Buare.2 at the 9ni3ersit& of Florida. 00) >n the global scale. Minn. a"e fr&strate' *2(2 efforts to promote &man rig ts2 00E . 000 In the meantime. on 'une .C. hundreds of student demonstrators #ho #ere ad3ocating for greater freedom #ere 5illed b& soldiers in the Chinese arm&.!.M 0. M. 00* Fifteen &ears later. @uman Right and Narcotics %raffic5ing For &ears the 9nited !tates has #or5ed to "romote human rights throughout 4atin 2merica. '. %ashma1 ). democratic countries in 4atin 2merica and Euro"e ha3e been #illing to o3erloo5 China8s 3iolations of human rights.. LChina8s Economic and Political Clout Gro#s in 4atin 2merica at the E/"ense of 9.

2rgentina. %he Dashington Post @ead Driter s"eciali=ing in the Middle East. Dith its latest outreach. Iran has since o"ened si/ ne# missions there .AC Iran e@pan'ing infl&ence no# in LA to c allenge *( po#er Warric. a Dashington thin5 tan5.!. had its largest "etroleum com"an& hit #ith 9. Iran8s ambitions in the region date bac5 at least t#o decades.!.$ said Re". including unmanned drones. from a mining Foint 3enture in Ecuador to factories for "etrochemicals and small-arms ammunition in :ene=uela.$ sa&ing it #ould bring $the Iranian threat closer to our shores. Ecuador. !ome #ould-be allies also ha3e been disa""ointed #hen Iran failed to deli3er on "romised de3elo"ment "roFects and Foint 3entures. officials sa& the guds Force #as behind the alleged "lot to hire Me/ican drug gangs to assassinate a !audi di"lomat in Dashington.!. LIran see5s closer ties in 4atin 2merica. $ For Iran to be so acti3e in :ene=uela and for the guds Force to be there can onl& suggest Iran is serious about as&mmetrical force "roFection into our nec5 of the #oods. 2 re"ort released in No3ember b& the Center for !trategic and International !tudies.Pulit=er Pri=e-#inning Fournalist. #ho made the region a di"lomatic "riorit&. Chile. Relations bet#een Iran and 4atin 2merica began to #arm shortl& after the )**I election of 2hmadineFad . the countr&8s leaders are scrambling to find #illing foreign "artners #ho can soften the blo# of sanctions and "ro3ide di"lomatic co3er for Iran8s nuclear ambitions. #hich comes amid rising tensions #ith Dashington and Euro"ean "o#ers. Cuba and Nicaragua.$ the C!I! re"ort said. .1. a former case officer #ith the CI28s counter"roliferation di3ision.$ %he 3isit is e/"ected to include :ene=uela. officials in >ctober lin5ed to afoiled assassination "lot in Dashington . %he im"ortance of 2hmadineFad8s 3isit #as underscored last #ee5b& Iran8s state-o#ned Press %:. interests coming from these guds Force gu&s in !outh 2merica . :ene=uela. Get Iran8s efforts in the region also ha3e &ielded disa""ointments. Iran has also dramaticall& e/"anded its di"lomatic missions throughout the hemis"here and dis"atched members of its elite guds Force .and has e/"anded embassies in Cuba.the militar& unit 9. $Dhile Iran8s o3ertures to "eri"heral states ha3e the "otential to #ea5en 9. Nicaragua. officials and Iran e/"erts sa&.$ Iran has dis"atched a stream of lo#er-ran5ing officials to the region in recent months. Ros-4ehtinen said she #as disturbed b& 2hmadineFad8s "lans for #hat she called a $tour of t&rants. $No one dares attac5 Iran. #here the Iranian "resident #ill be a guest at the inauguration of ne#l& reelected leader Caniel >rtega.!.. officials and regional e/"erts sa& is an effort to circum3ent economic sanctions and gain access to much-needed mar5ets and ra# materials. Ileana Ros-4ehtinen (R-Fla.in Colombia. sanctions last &ear o3er its ties #ith Iran. Ecuador. #hich said "romotion of $all-out coo"eration #ith 4atin 2merican countries is among the to" "riorities of the Islamic Re"ublic8s foreign "olic&. Me/ico and :ene=uela. Buestioned #hether Iran e3er could succeed at building an effecti3e su""ort net#or5 in the region. . and %ehran #as lin5ed in the 0??*s to t#o bombings of 'e#ish centers. intelligence officials sa& the "resence of guds Force officers and other militar& "ersonnel in di"lomatic missions enhances Iran8s abilit& to carr& out co3ert acti3ities. !maller countries such as Nicaragua and 7oli3ia ha3e seen little of the millions of dollars in aid "romised b& Iranian officials o3er the "ast decade . #e ma& #ell see retaliator& stri5es aimed at 9. %he ne# di"lomatic offensi3e.$ said 2rt Keller.0) billion. $Iran has been acti3el& #or5ing for &ears to e/"and its ties and influence in the Destern @emis"here. 9./ 1. %he 3isit reinforces recent commitments b& Iran to in3est millions of dollars in economic de3elo"ment "roFects for the region. a countr& that sa# its e/"orts to Iran surge se3en-fold o3er the "ast decade to an annual le3el of [).!. Iran8s closest all& in the region. If Israel bombs Iran.!. and it has found #illing "artners in the region8s anti-2merican des"ots. 4e/isNe/is1--@24 Iran is Buietl& see5ing to e/"and its ties #ith 4atin 2merica in #hat 9.!. sometimes in conFunction #ith members of the Iran-bac5ed @e=bollah militant grou" that o"erates e/tensi3e net#or5s in 4atin 2merica and maintains ties #ith drug cartels. Iran a""ears to be see5ing to #oo bac5 4atin 2merican countries that ha3e gro#n #ar& of doing business #ith %ehran. Iran recentl& sur"assed Russia as the biggest im"orter of beef from 7ra=il. "olitical and militar& influence in the 9nited !tates8 bac5 &ard. chairman of the @ouse Foreign 2ffairs Committee. trade has soared.!. includes a four-nation s#ing through !outh and Central 2merica this month b& Iranian President Mahmoud 2hmadineFad.!. officials sa&.to ser3e in its embassies. and most ha3e been reluctant to full& bac5 the Islamic re"ublic in dis"utes o3er sanctions or curbs on Iran8s nuclear "rogram. Former 9. 2s di"lomatic relations ha3e gro#n bet#een Iran and 4atin 2merica. Its 4atin 2merican "artners do far more business #ith the 9nited !tates and other Destern nations than #ith Iran. including 2rgentina8s #orst-e3er terrorist attac5 in 0??. di"lomac& and national securit& ('ob&. 9. 9rugua& and 7oli3ia . 7ra=il. attem"ts to contain and isolate Iran. such a "ro"osed [EI* million dee"-#ater "ort for Nicaragua. current and former 9. 0E #ith :ene=uela8s state-o#ned broadcaster %ele!9R in #hich he hailed the close ties bet#een the t#o countries and boasted of Iran8s ad3ances in militar& technolog&. %ehran8s #eb is fragile and "ossibl& illusor&. e3en if it managed to ma5e good on its grandiose commitments. 2hmadineFad granted a li3e inter3ie# Cec.M 'anuar& )nd. 7ut #ith Destern nations threatening to bo&cott Iranian oil.$ 2hmadineFad said in the inter3ie#. )*0). @is go3ernment has 3o#ed to increase its economic.Impact – Iran E@pansionism – .

ZER %he Cha3e= regime also has become a safe ha3en and source of financial su""ort for @e=bollah. Iran e@pansionism .M !ummer )*0). %he Middle Eastern guarterl&. %oda&.Commerce #ith 2rgentina has climbed nearl& as ra"idl&. :ene=uela has emerged as an im"ortant source of material assistance for %ehran8s s"ra#ling nuclear "rogram as #ell as a 3ocal di"lomatic bac5er of its right to atomic "o#er .Z+R 'ust as significantl&.R In turn. #hen its "re3iousl& clandestine nuclear "rogram became a "ressing international issue. according to the re"ort8s author. an M2 in International Politics from 2merican 9ni3ersit&. #hich is no# under 9.Z(R It #ould be a mista5e. %ehran8s feared Re3olutionar& Guard has become in3ol3ed in training :ene=uela8s secret ser3ices and "olice. a member of the 2ssociated Facult& at Missouri !tate 9ni3ersit&8s Ce"artment of Cefense and !trategic !tudies. 2ided b& its "artnershi" #ith Caracas and bolstered b& a shared anti-2merican outloo5.$ Farah said. sanctions for su""orting terrorist net#or5s. as the go3ernment of President Cristina Fernande= de Kirchner has he#ed a more conciliator& line to#ard %ehran. "". a senior fello# at the International 2ssessment and !trateg& Center. %he ban5. %he stud&. !ince )**E. 2nal&sts argue that an e/"anded foothold in 4atin 2merica also could "ro3ide Iran #ith strategic ad3antages in its "rotracted struggle #ith Destern "o#ers . Ce"artment of Cefense.!.Z)R Far and a#a& the most "rominent such "artnershi" has been #ith :ene=uela. Cue to its fa3orable geo"olitical climateHt&"ified b& 3ast ungo3erned areas and #ides"read anti-2mericanismH4atin 2merica has become an im"ortant focus of this effort. militar&J In its .$ Farah said in testimon& in 'ul& to the @ouse @omeland !ecurit& subcommittee on counterterrorism and intelligence. %ehran has succeeded in forging significant strategic. and the Russian Federation. CC. !ince @ugo Cha3e= became "resident in 0???.meforum. ha3e im"ro3ed in recent times. >3er the "ast decade. released in Ma&. from )**( to )**X. htt"J--###. >ne Iraniano#ned ban5 dre# s"ecial scrutin& in a stud& commissioned b& the Pentagon8s Cefense %hreat Reduction 2genc&. %ehran has sought to mitigate the mounting "olitical and economic restrictions le3ied against it b& the 9nited !tates and its allies through intensified di"lomatic outreach abroad. ho#e3er. Iran8s most "o#erful terrorist "ro/&. 2n e/"ert on regional securit& in the Middle East.ills *( egemony/ !&il's Iran n&clear stoc.!. Iran has o"ened ban5 branches and trans"ortation com"anies that 9. 72 in Politics from 7randeis 9ni3ersit&.org-E)?(-iran-latin-americakQftnrefE*1--@24 >utreach to 4atin 2merica is seen b& the Iranian regime first and foremost as a means to lessen its dee"ening international isolation.pile an' ca&ses *(-Iran #ar Berman/ 1. the regime has nearl& doubled the number of embassies in the region (from si/ in )**I to ten in )*0*1 and has de3oted considerable energ& to forging economic bonds #ith s&m"athetic regional go3ernments.!.Z. !uch institutions $afford Iran and its "ro/& elements state co3er and effecti3e immunit& for its co3ert acti3ities.ZIR Economic contacts bet#een Caracas and %ehran li5e#ise ha3e e/"lodedHe/"anding from 3irtuall& nil in the earl& )***s to more than [)* billion in total trade and coo"eration agreements toda&. Iran can achie3e such goals as $unfettered access to global ban5ing facilities. and "olitical lin5s #ith the regime of E3o Morales in 7oli3ia and Rafael Correa in Ecuador. the t#o countries enFo& an e/tensi3e and 3ibrant strategic "artnershi". %he subseBuent election of Mahmoud 2hmadineFad to the Iranian "residenc& in )**I 5ic5ed coo"eration into high gear #ith dramatic results. %rade #ith Ecuador lea"ed from [+ million to [0+X million in a single &ear. LIran Courts 4atin 2merica. #here President @ugo Cha3e= is an a3o#ed su""orter of %ehran8s nuclear ambitions. In :ene=uela. E3en Iran8s relations #ith 2rgentina. Central Intelligence 2genc& and the 9. and "ro3ided assistance on foreign "olic& and national securit& issues to a range of go3ernmental agencies and congressional offices. Indeed. o"erates #ith onl& a single branch in Caracas and a""ears immune from o3ersight b& the countr&8s regulators.8$ZXR %his 3ie# is increasingl& shared b& the 9. officials sa& enable Iran to circum3ent sanctions . %he Iranian regime8s sustained s&stematic outreach to regional states suggests that it sees the Destern @emis"here as a crucial strategic theater for e/"anding its o#n influence and reducing that of the 9nited !tates . alignment #ith %ehran has emerged as a cardinal tenet of Caracas8s foreign "olic&. #here Iranian-su""orted terrorists carried out maFor bombings in 0??) and 0??. :>49ME aIaJ N9M7ER E. "orts and air"ortsN mining of "recursor elements for DMC and ad3anced #ea"ons s&stems fabricationN and a regional base for infiltration and contingenc& o"erations aimed at undermining the 9nited !tates and its interests.. Central 2sia. :ene=uela has ser3ed as Iran8s gate#a& for further economic and di"lomatic e/"ansion into the region . to 3ie# these contacts as sim"l& "ragmaticHor strictl& defensi3e. +E-+?. a )**? dossier "re"ared b& Israel8s Ministr& of Foreign 2ffairs noted that $since 2hmadineFad8s rise to "o#er. %hrough them. %ehran has been "romoting an aggressi3e "olic& aimed at bolstering its ties #ith 4atin 2merican countries #ith the declared goal of 8bringing 2merica to its 5nees.!. and a 'C from Dashington College of 4a# (Ilan. Couglas Farah.!. W :ice President of the 2merican Foreign Polic& Council in Dashington. he has consulted for both the 9. economic. described :ene=uela8s 7anco Internacional de Cesarrollo as an $o"aBue$ institution #ith an all-Iranian board of trustees.

deft di"lomac& on the "art of Dashington and its Euro"ean allies hel"ed st&mie %ehran8s efforts Hat least for the time being. it is rumored that the no#-infamous %ehran-Caracas air route o"erated Fointl& b& Con3iasa. deficit of uranium ore.Z0IR %his effort has recentl& focused on t#o "rinci"al geogra"hic areas. influence in the Destern @emis"here.Z?R %o this end. 2ccording to non"roliferation e/"erts. the >ffice of the !ecretar& of Cefense noted that $ Iran see5s to increase its stature b& countering 9. it has become an acce"ted belief that %ehran8s atomic "rogram is no# largel& self-sufficient and that its "rogress is. as its influence and acti3ities there intensif&. %his.!.Z)0R Regional e/"erts note that Iran8s mining and e/traction efforts in 4atin 2merica are still com"arati3el& modest in nature. %he incident re"resents a seismic shift in %ehran8s strategic calculations. In )**?.!. a !"anish-language analogue to its Englishlanguage Press %: channel. In Februar& )*00. 2 [E* million Foint mining deal concluded bet#een %ehran and guito bac5 in )**? has "ositioned the Correa regime to e3entuall& become a su""lier for the Islamic Re"ublic.R In that "articular case. the Iranian regime #ill be able to field a "rogressi3el& more robust o"erational "resence in the 2mericas . !ignificantl&. his go3ernment #as forced to "rocure significant Buantities of the mineral from !outh 2frica. %ehran is ram"ing u" its strategic messaging to the region. %his raises the "ossibilit& that 4atin 2merica could emerge in the near future as a significant "ro3ider of strategic resources for the Iranian regime and a 5e& source of sustenance for Iran8s e/"anding nuclear "rogram. "ro/imate to the countr&8s industrial ca"ital of !anta Cru=. "olitical and economic "resence in the region under the banner of a ne# $7oli3arian$ re3olution.!. %he first is 2frica #here %ehran has made concerted efforts to engage a number of uranium "roducers such as ]imbab#e. !enegal. for e/am"le. %he best 5no#n of these "artnershi"s is #ith :ene=uelaN coo"eration on strategic resources has emerged as a defining feature of the alliance bet#een the Islamic Re"ublic and the Cha3e= regime. the #orld8s largest de"osit of uranium. ho#e3er. and Iran8s state carrier. it a""ears that $Iranian officialsH"robabl& including !u"reme 4eader 2li Khamene8iHha3e changed their calculus and are no# #illing to conduct an attac5 in the 9nited !tates. Dith the sanction of the Morales go3ernment.!. 2s Cirector of National Intelligence 'ames Cla""er obser3ed in his 'anuar& )*0) testimon& before the !enate !elect Committee on Intelligence. %ehran has embar5ed on a #idening Buest to acBuire uranium ore from abroad.Z0+R %he second is 4atin 2merica #here %ehran no# is e/"loring and de3elo"ing a series of significant resource "artnershi"s. %ehran is "ursuing a strateg& that "romotes its o#n ideolog& and influence in 4atin 2merica at Dashington8s e/"ense.Z00R 2s 2hmadineFad8s statement indicates. ho#e3er. is fast becoming a significant source of strategic resources for the Iranian regime. Nigeria. a 5e& strategic mineral #ith a""lications for nuclear #ea"ons de3elo"ment. !ince the start of the international crisis o3er Iran8s nuclear ambitions nearl& nine &ears ago. #ho himself has #or5ed diligentl& to diminish 9.Z)*R Iran e3en a""ears to be e&eing Ecuador8s uranium de"osits. constrained b& com"etition from larger countries such as Canada and China and b& %ehran8s o#n a3ailable resources and 5no#-ho#. and gro#ing. 2 7ase for 2ttac56 Con3entional #isdom in Dashington has long held that %ehran8s acti3ism in the 2mericas is o""ortunisticH rather than o"erational. too. the region is unBuestionabl& 3ie#ed as a target of o""ortunit& in Iran8s #idening Buest for strategic resourcesHboth because of its fa3orable "olitical o"erating en3ironment and because states there (es"eciall& 7oli3ia1 re"resent un5no#n Buantities in terms of resource #ealth. largel& ine/orable. In late 'anuar&. this aging stoc5"ile has re"ortedl& been mostl& de"leted.Z))R @o#e3er. %ehran8s indigenous uranium ore reser3es are 5no#n to be both $limited and mostl& of "oor Bualit&. an attac5 #hichHhad it been successfulH#ould "otentiall& ha3e 5illed scores of 9. an intelligence summar& from a member state of the International 2tomic Energ& 2genc& reaffirmed the Islamic regime8s continued search for ne# and stable sources of uranium to fuel its nuclear "rogram. adFacent to :ene=uela8s border #ith Gu&ana. has not abated. a series of coo"eration agreements concluded in )*0* bet#een 4a Pa= and %ehran ha3e made Iran a $"artner$ in the mining and e/"loitation of 7oli3ia8s lithium. Iran 2ir. it has been greatl& aided b& Cha3e=. Get Iran8s gro#ing as&mmetric ca"abilities throughout the region ha3e the "otential to be directed against the 9. the Iranian regime formall& launched @is"an%:.Z0?R 2dditionall&. and the Cemocratic Peo"le8s Re"ublic of Congo. it is 5no#n to ha3e attem"ted to "urchase more than 0.$Z0)R Dhen !hah Mohammed Re=a Pahla3i ma""ed out an ambitious national "lan for nuclear "o#er in the 0?(*s.!. homeland. In this endea3or.Z0*R %he tele3ision outlet has been de"icted b& 2hmadineFad as "art of his go3ernment8s efforts to $limit the ground for su"remac& of dominance see5ers$Ha thinl&-3eiled reference to 9. %ehran is no# belie3ed to be e/tracting uranium from as man& as ele3en different sites in 7oli3ia8s east. on the heels of 2hmadineFad8s 3er& "ublic four-countr& tour of 4atin 2merica.*** tons of uranium ore from the Central 2sian re"ublic of Ka=a5hstan at a cost of nearl& half-a-billion dollars.Z0. %he Iranian Buest. in recent &ears. Moreo3er. %his #as hammered home b& the foiled >ctober )*00 "lot.)*0* re"ort on Iranian militar& "o#er. therefore.Z0(R 7oli3ia.Z0XR Not coincidentall&. the critical ra# material needed to fuel its atomic effort. %he Iranian regime is currentl& 5no#n to be mining in the Roraima 7asin. Cla""er concluded . #ill be e/tended in the near future to !anta Cru=. influence and e/"anding ties #ith regional actors $ in 4atin 2merica. in res"onse to mounting international "ressure and as&mmetric acti3it& against %ehran8s nuclear "rogram. that geological area is belie3ed to be analogous to Canada8s 2thabasca 7asin. Nearl& four decades later.$Z)?R 4atin 2merica figures "rominentl& in this eBuation. :ene=uela8s national airline. citi=ens in the nation8s ca"ital in the most significant terrorist e3ent since ?-00. is far from the truthN in fact. %he foiled >ctober )*00 "lot suggests that %ehran increasingl& deems the region an ad3antageous o"erational theater. the Iranian regime currentl& runs a considerable.Z0ER 2s a result.

our interests. Castro. >rtega. the gods force. and Correa that man& belie3e can destabili=e the hemis"here. $%hese alliances can "ose an immediate threat b& gi3ing Iran Hdirectl& through the IRGC. $ he noted. or its "ro/ies li5e @e=bollahHa "latform in the region to carr& out attac5s against the 9nited !tates. and allies.his !enate testimon& #ith an ominous #arningJ $%he Iranian regime has formed alliances #ith Cha3e=.$ZE*R .

%he idea of the Iranian officials is to create a net#or5 of "eo"le in !outh 2merica. !he #or5ed for Euro"ean and Middle Eastern media.!. 4et us ho"e that its #arning does not fall. the CI2 and different 9! nuclear "lants. %he documentar&. %he 3ideos sho#n #ere "art of a se3en month in3estigation during #hich a team of Fournalists trac5ed the e/"ansion of Iranian interests in the 4atin 2merica W including mone& laundering and drug traffic5ing acti3ities b& terrorist grou"s su""orted b& Iran. In a "ress release.!. the& ha3e been e/"anding their =one of interest farther and farther north to reach :ene=uela and Me/ico. >ne Me/ican student #as in3ited to Iran to stud& Islam for t#o months. recentl& "resented a re"ort sho#ing that Iran is acti3el& "re"aring an attac5 against the 9! to be carried out from bases in 4atin 2merica. told me that #hat the& are no# doing is #aging an intellectual #arN #hat the& are "lanning to do is "re"are "eo"le #ith information so that the& can attac5 the masses intellectuall&. 2fter his election. !imilar attitudes #ere found #ith :ene=uelan and Cuban high officials.org-)++)-iran-c&ber-attac5-against-us1--@24 9ni3ision. "olitical and militar& ties Iran has de3elo"ed in !outh 2merican countries are ra"idl& e3ol3ing into a tangible threat for the securit& of the 9!. the >bama administration has failed to confront the Iranian threat #ith effecti3e firmness. 7ra=il and 2rgentina1. #ho #as ris5ing his life in Iran. %he team of Fournalist also infiltrated the di"lomatic milieu in Me/ico #ith the hel" of &oung uni3ersit& students #ho "osed as s"ies and offered their ser3ices to different officials from Iran.$ 9ni3ision8s cr& of alarm against Iranian acti3ities in !outh 2merica is not the first of its 5ind. $>ne of the Iranian shei5s.. Ghadiri $embar5ed on a cam"aign to increase the "resence of Iran in Me/ico. In :ene=uela. %he documentar& re3eals e/clusi3e findings. #ho #as 3ideoed #hile acce"ting the hel" of the Me/ican students for carr&ing out a maFor informatics attac5 to the 9!. Iran8s ties #ith :ene=uela ha3e been gro#ing steadil& during the "residenc& of @ugo Cha3e=. @aaret= (Israel1. and obtained an un"ublished 3ideo of a failed bomb attac5 against Ne# Gor58s 'FK air"ort. on deaf ears in Dashington. President 7arac5 >bama declared that he #as #illing to tal5 to Iran $#ithout "re-conditions. all 3er& interested in su""orting an Iranian-s"onsored "lot against the 9!. Dhile in Iran. in e/change. $4a 2mena=a Irani$ ($%he Iranian %hreat$1. Ghadiri is sho#n in the documentar& as acce"ting a "lan to launch from Me/ico a c&ber #ar on the 9. though underco3er footage. including secret 3ideo and audio recordings that "ro3ide information about a "lanned Iranian-bac5ed c&ber attac5 against the 9nited !tates from Me/ico. based in 'erusalem. an' . %he documentar& also confirms that Iran is behind mone& laundering and drug traffic5ing acti3ities that are used to su""ort Islamist net#or5s and training cam"s in :ene=uela and else#here.th. #hich once #ere relegated to the %ri-7order 2rea (Paragua&. threats from the Iranian regime. from 4atin 2merica. the F7I. 9ni3ision said that it had at its dis"osal $tens of hours of secret recordings. @er o"inion "ieces ha3e been "ublished in Corriere della !era (Ital&1. !ince then. the infiltrated Me/ican met Muslims from :ene=uela.Impact – Iran E@pansionism – Hegemony Iranian infl&ence ca&ses a cy!erattac. %he im"ro3ement of these relations has gone hand in hand #ith the e/"ansion of Islamist grou"s in !outh 2merica. Precisel& in gom.gatestoneinstitute. not to mention the !outh 2merican giants. :ene=uela and Cuba for carr&ing out a c&bernetic attac5 on sensiti3e 2merican targets that #ould cri""le 9. and had conducted e/tensi3e inter3ie#s #ith "eo"le #ho "artici"ated in the meetings.$. Iran also enFo&s e/cellent relations #ith countries such as 7oli3ia. 9ni3ision re"orts that during his sta& in Me/ico. !he has "ublished se3eral boo5s including $Italo-Marocchina$ (Ital&. all of #hom had con3erted to Islam and #ere stud&ing to o"en mosBues bac5 in 4atin 2merica.!.onl& to recei3e. In "articular. once again. 2rgentina and 7ra=il. at the doorste" of the 9!. Ecuador. #ith the ultimate goal of undermining 2merican interests in 4atin 2merica and inside the 9!. the largest %: broadcaster in !"anish of the 9nited !tates.M Cecember 0. the Pentagon.ills *( egemony %a =ar-Bar'&cci/ 11 W Moroccan-Italian researcher and author. com"uter s&stems of command centers such as the Dhite @ouse. #hen I first gained his trust. 2rgentina and 7oli3ia . $4a 2mena=a Irani$ is a courageous testament to in3estigati3e Fournalism. including a former Iranian ambassadorN and Zthat the& hadR e/amined documents ranging from hand-#ritten notes to internal federal re"orts. LIran Pre"aring !erious C&ber 2ttac5 2gainst the 9. )*00.$said the underco3er student. Nicaragua. Ecuador. @is "lan e3en included a "roFect to o"en a consulate in %iFuana. ho# the gro#ing economic. %his is #hat the& are doing directl& from gom. %he 9nited !tated has constantl& underestimated the danger coming from Iranian acti3ities both in Iran and in !outh 2merica. Mohamad @assan Ghadiri. It #arns of a genuine threat to be dealt #ith utmost urgenc&. >ne of the officials contacted #as former 2mbassador of Iran to Me/ico. . the team managed to infiltrate Iranian militar& training cam"s organi=ed from Iranian-financed mosBues #ithin the countr&. htt"J--###. @e #as ordered to learn about the Islamic religion and the Islamic re3olution in order to be sent bac5 to Me/ico to "reach Islam. 2li gomi. an Islamic acti3ist accused b& 2rgentina of "artici"ating in the attac5s on 'e#ish organi=ations in 7uenos 2ires in 0??) and 0??.$ %he %: channel also re"orted that Ghadiri tried to grant access into Me/ico to Edgardo Ruben 2ssad. in "articular @e=bollah. )*001. (2nna. 2l-2rabi&a (92E1. )**?1 and $Pa5istan E/"ress$ (Ital&. Cail& !tar (4ebanon1 and she has a""eared as a guest anal&st also in 2frican media. illustrated.

Eg&"t. GCI FileR 2 core "remise of dee" engagement is that it "re3ents the emergence of a far more dangerous global securit& en3ironment.*( primacy pre"ents glo!al conflict – 'iminis ing po#er creates a "ac&&m t at ca&ses transition #ars in m&ltiple places Broo. the& define securit& not Fust in terms of territorial "rotection but in 3ie# of man& and 3aried milieu goals . e3en more alarming bod& of scholarshi". then much of its basis for o"timism 3anishes. Cefensi3e realism’s o"timism about #hat #ould ha""en if the 9nited !tates retrenched is 3er& much de"endent on its"articularHand highl& restricti3eHassum"tion about state "referencesN once #e rela/ this assum"tion. but man& doubt Euro"ean go3ernments #ill "a& the "olitical costs of increased E9 defense coo"eration and the budgetar& costs of increasing militar& outla&s. Fe# e/"erts e/"ect a return of intense great "o#er com"etition in a "ost-2merican Euro"e. #hich ma5es sense gi3en that the #hole debate hinges on a com"le/ future counterfactual (#hat #ould ha""en to Eurasia’s securit& setting if the 9nited !tates trul& disengaged61. First is regional e/"ertise. defense dominance. 2nd concerning East 2sia. "essimismregarding the region’s "ros"ects #ithout the 2merican "acifier is "ronounced. 7urgeoning research across the social and other sciences. the "rediction of "ost-2merican tranBuilit& throughout Eurasia rests on the assum"tion that securit& is the onl& rele3ant state "reference.!. and offense is e/tremel& e/"ensi3e relati3e to defense. It follo#s that e3en states that are relati3el& secure ma& ne3ertheless engage in highl& com"etiti3e beha3ior. .Dilliam C. Perha"s more im"ortant.g. arms racing. 9. %here are three other maFor bodies of scholarshi". and e3en runs at regional hegemon& and full-scale great "o#er #ar.!. !"ecificall&. Indeed. the securit& "roblem is largel& sol3ed as soon as offense and defense are clearl& distinguishable. :ol. %he first res"onse flo#s from defensi3e realism as #ell as other international relations theories that discount the conflict-generating "otential of anarch& under contem"orar& conditions. 7roo5s is 2ssociate Professor of Go3ernment at Cartmouth College. Dohlforth is the Caniel Debster Professor in the Ce"artment of Go3ernment at Cartmouth College. #ithdra#al. (E Cefensi3e realists maintain that the high e/"ected costs of territorial conBuest. a regional conflict a5in to the 0??*s 7al5an #ars1. No. each of these res"onses is nonetheless a #ea5er argument for retrenchment than ad3ocates ac5no#ledge. there is no consensus on the net securit& effects of 9. status . #hich could sto5e a 'esta!ili6ing reaction from C ina . E. #ho forecasts dangerous multi"olar regions re"lete #ith securit& com"etition. >ffensi3e realism "redicts that the #ithdra#al of the 2merican "acifier #ill &ield either a com"etiti3e regional multi"olarit& com"lete #ith associated insecurit&. Each res"onse is connected to a different theor& or set of theories. Dinter )*0E.undermines that core assum"tionJ states ha3e "references not onl& for securit& but also for "restige. %he result might be Euro"e that is inca"able of securing itself from 3arious threats that could be destabili=ing #ithin the region and be&ond (e. the 9nited !tates’ o3erseas "resence gi3es it the le3erage to restrain "artners from ta5ing "ro3ocati3e action. crisis instabilit&. and an arra& of "olicies and "ractices that can be used credibl& to signal benign intent. a bet on a benign "ostretrenchment Eurasia is a bet that leaders of maFor countries #ill ne3er allo# these nonsecurit& "references to influence their strategic choices. both !outh Korea and %ai#an mo3ed to a obtain a nuclear #ea"ons ca"acit& and #ere onl& constrained from doing so b& astill-engaged 9nited !tates. ho#e3er. 'ohn I5enberr& is the 2lbert G. interest. regional ri3alries. Needless to sa&. arms races. the balance begins tos#ing to#ard "essimists concerned that states currentl& bac5ed b& Dashington H notabl& Israel. securit& guarantees are not necessar& to "re3ent dangerous ri3alries and conflict in EurasiaN or ()1 "re3ention of ri3alr& and conflict in Eurasia is not a 9. Retrenchment #ould be a bet on this scholarshi".!. Em"irical studies sho# that this is indeed sometimes the case.s et al 14 Z!te"hen G. #ith securit& defined narro#l& in terms of "rotection from 3iolent e/ternal attac5s on the homeland. and is 3ulnerable to the influence of outside rising "o#ers. 9nder that assum"tion. there are o"timists and "essimists. 2rguabl& the "rinci"al concern e/"ressed b& area e/"erts is that 'a"an and !outh Korea are li5el& to o!tain a n&clear capacity and increase their militar& commitments. "articularl& in regions #here the 5inds of stabili=ers that nonrealist theories "oint toHsuch as democratic go3ernance or dense institutional lin5agesHare either absent or #ea5l& "resent.mit"ressFournals.!. nuclear "roliferation and associated "re3enti3e #artem"tations. but t#o ca"ture most of the 3ariationJ (01 9.org-doi-abs-0*. #hich ma& be be&ond the ca"acit& of local great "o#ers to contain (and #hich in an& case #ould generate intensel& com"etiti3e beha3ior. (. () @o# do retrenchment ad3ocates. (I %he second bod& of scholarshi" casting doubt on the bet on defensi3e realism’s sanguine "ortra&al is all of the research that undermines its conce"tion of state "references.00+)-I!ECQaQ**0*(. nuclear "roliferation . Pages (I0. reducing their incenti3e to ado"t solutions to their securit& "roblems that threaten others and thus sto5e securit& dilemmas. %o the degree that these bodies of scholarl& 5no#ledge ha3e "redicti3e le3erage.htt"J--###. "o#er dam"ens the baleful effects of anarch& is consistent #ith influential 3ariants of realist theor&. Milban5 Professor of Politics and International 2ffairs at Princeton 9ni3ersit& in the Ce"artment of Politics and the Doodro# Dilson !chool of Public and International 2ffairs. its core alliance commitments also deter states #ith as"irations to regional hegemon& from contem"lating e/"ansion and ma5e its "artners more secure. 2mericaJ %he Case against RetrenchmentM.!. that might gi3e decisionma5ers "ause before ma5ing this bet. discount this benefit6 %heir arguments are com"licated. De ha3e alread& mentioned the third. Regarding each region. @e is also a Global Eminence !cholar at K&ung @ee 9ni3ersit&.. and !audi 2rabiaHmight ta5e actions u"on 9. ho#e3er. and the li5e. 2lthough a certain ans#er is im"ossible. It is notable that during the Cold Dar.G. LCon8t Come @ome. (+ In addition. Dhat about the other "arts of Eurasia #here the 9nited !tates has a substantial militar& "resence6 Regarding the Middle East. or bids for regional hegemon&. lac5s ca"acit& for global securit& missions in #hich 9. E(.!. leaders might #ant Euro"ean "artici"ation. mean that Eurasia’s maFor states could manage regional multi"olarit& "eacefull& #ithout the2merican "acifier. (( In sum. and the&engage in trade-offs among the 3arious obFecti3es. the bul5 of #hom are realists. as noted abo3e. %he contention that engaged 9. For one thing. arguabl& the scariest "ortra&al of the #ar-"rone #orld that #ould emerge absent the L2merican PacifierM is "ro3ided in the #or5s of 'ohn Mearsheimer. retrenchment that #ould intensif& securit& dilemmas. retrenchment #ould result in a significant deterioration in the securit& en3ironment in at least some of the #orld’s 5e& regions.!. "ossibl& including regional great "o#er #ar1. and other aims.

treatment of Iran going bac5 to the 9. ho#e3er.-su""orted cou" against Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh in 0?IE. PhC in 'e#ish studies at the 'e#ish %heological !eminar& and in international economics at Ne# Gor58s Ne# !chool for !ocial Research (2braham. Iran has a coo"erati3e arrangement #orth o3er [0 billion to de3elo" 7oli3ia8s oil. Israel. "articularl& to the need&. 2 regime that so blatantl& denies the 3oice of its "eo"le b& rigging an election and 3iolentl& su""ressing "ublic outrage cannot be trusted on the international scene . In these "roFects. @e=bollah and @amas ha3e mastered this techniBue in an effort to #in "ublic su""ort and mas5 their e/tremist goals . It has set u" health clinics and training "rograms for "h&sicians. In Nicaragua. internal and e/ternal actors are more #illing to "a& attention to Iran as a destructi3e force in the #orld . !ince then.!. %here is ne# o""ortunit& to "ut the sBuee=e on %eheran.M %his article originall& a""eared in Council of the 2mericas (:ie#"oints 2mericas1 on 'ul& )E. has abandoned an& "retense of res"ecting the 3oice of its citi=ens. Most im"ortantl&. Ma&be the& #ill reali=e that the future #ell-being of the "eo"le of 4atin 2merica cannot be secured b& the connection to the 3icious e/tremists in charge in %ehran. and has come under attac5 from some fairl& conser3ati3e clerics. 7uilding hos"itals and housing for the "oor. in addition to the large business in3estments. 7ut Iran has cut a series of deals in the region that ma5e tangible its influence. Iran had its defenders. clearl& #as intended to reinforce su""ort from the bottom u". and resource actionsHnot onl& against the regime8s nuclear "rogram but its 4atin 2merican agenda. In Ecuador. and industrial sectors. the building of a "olitical alliance to offset international "ressures. Most im"ortant has been the coming to "o#er in se3eral countries of leaders and "arties #ho are inimical to the 9nited !tates.!.org-"ress-center-c-iran-is-not-a-good-"artner-for-latin-america. the Iranians are follo#ing the "rescri"tion that Islamic e/tremist grou"s ha3e been using for &ears to e/tend their influence in Middle Eastern countriesJ build a re"utation for social res"onsibilit& b& "ro3iding ser3ices. It has lost legitimac& and can8t successfull& conFure u" the usual enemies to di3ert attention from its abuses. a series of factors ha3e come together to allo# Iran to s"read its influence on the continent. %his has translated into economic deals because of a 5e& factor at #or5. %oda&. Iran has been e/"osed. It also a""lies. Included in these goals are the s"read of Iran8s Islamic e/tremist ideolog&.!. Iran #as loo5ing for "olitical su""ort from these and other 4atin 2merican countries at a time #hen the 9. Efforts to blame the 9. %he go3ernment has attac5ed its o#n "eo"le. 2s a result. "la&ing a substantial financial role in the further de3elo"ment of :ene=uelan oil de"osits and is funding housing "roFects for the "oor. It is no# the second-largest in3estor in :ene=uela. and Euro"e #ere tr&ing to isolate Iran o3er the nuclear issue. and sustaining a net#or5 of agents through @e=bollah to be able to engage in terrorism in 4atin 2merica should the "ercei3ed need arise . @ad Iran sim"l& loo5ed for allies based on $the enem& of m& enem& is m& friend. htt"J--###.html1--@24 %he fraudulent Iranian "residential election and its re"ressi3e aftermath "ut the focus on the Islamic regime8s beha3ior in an un"recedented manner. and its use of its surrogate @e=bollah in those destructi3e o"erations signaled that Iran belie3ed it had a certain freedom to carr& out terrorist attac5s on 4atin 2merican territor&. and donated [) million for the construction of a hos"ital. )**?. LIran Is Not a Good Partner For 4atin 2merica. this a""lies to the "otential of a nuclear Iran and its clear intention to de3elo" nuclear arms. In 7oli3ia.National Cirector of the 2nti-Cefamation 4eague. E3en during the more than one &ear hostage crisis of 0?(?-0?X*. to another troubling area #hich has been the subFect of far less attentionJ Iran8s threatening e/"ansion in 4atin 2merica. gas.Impact – Iran E@pansionism – +errorism Iran e@pansionism into Latin America lea's to W%D terrorism. Iran8s oil #ealth.*( engagement sol"es Fo@man/ 0 . 2ll of #hich is intended to ser3e the radical goals of the regime that has suddenl& dra#n more attention because of its gross domestic re"ression. based on criticism of 9. No# that Iran has sho#n its true colors. there is a uniBue o""ortunit& to build international "ressureHthrough "ublicit& and di"lomatic. and 7ritain e/"ectedl& continue but ha3e no im"act. Iran has "romised millions in aid to#ard building a dam and a h&droelectric "o#er station.!. Its "lanning and im"lementation in the earl& 0??*s of the terrorist attac5s against the Israeli Embass& and the 'e#ish Communit& Center in 7uenos 2ires (2MI21. financial. 9es&lts in W%D terrorism on t e *2(2 . Iran has signed a series of economic agreements in the last &ear including one for energ& "roduction. Ma&be a united outrage from the international communit& could ma5e some of these 4atin 2merican leaders "ause before engaging #ith this illegitimate regime. Iran has seen 4atin 2merica as a region of o""ortunit& at least for )* &ears..adl.$ that #ould ha3e been one thing.

%he "roblem #ill be that the "resident #ill not immediatel& 5no# ho# to res"ond or against #hom . said the& could use #ell-established smuggling routes and drug "rofits to bring "eo"le or e3en #eapons of mass 'estr&ction to the 9. #hich either #ere 3a"ori=ed instantl& or are no# l&ing "h&sicall& inaccessible under tons of radioacti3e rubble. Crug Enforcement 2dministration o"erations chief Michael 7raunJ $It is not in our interest to let that "ot"ourri of scum to come together. 2mericans #ould feel 3ulnerable in e3er& cit& in the nation.usatoda&. E/tremist grou" o"erati3es ha3e alread& been identified in se3eral 4atin 2merican countries. %here #ill be no such "hone calls #hen the attac5 #ill not ha3e been antici"ated until the instant the terrorists detonate their im"ro3ised nuclear de3ice inside the truc5 "ar5ed on a curb around the #orld #ould still see the retaliation as an attac5 on Islam.com-ne#s-nation-)**X-0*-*X-X*I0. there #ill ha3e been no inter3al during the attac5 #hen those hiFac5ed could ma5e "hone calls to lo3ed ones telling them before the& died that the hiFac5ers #ere radical Islamic e/tremists. Get #hat #ould #e gain6 %he moment Mecca and Medina #ere #i"ed off the ma". !till. %he "olitical "art& in "o#er at the time of the attac5 #ould be destro&ed unless the "resident retaliated #ith a nuclear stri5e against somebod&. %he 2merican "eo"le #ould feel a "rice had to be "aid #hile the countr& #as still ca"able of e/acting re3enge.M htt"J--usatoda&E*. !o #ea5ened b& the loss of Ne# #ould be no effecti3e ans#er.$ 2dded 9. the Islamic #orld W more than 0 billion human beings in countless different nations W #ould feel attac5ed.!. L9! officials fear terrorist lin5s #ith drug lords. to destro& the #hole religion of Islam. 7ut Charles 2llen. $Dho is going to be ne/t6$ #ould be the Buestion on e3er&one8s mind.!. chief of intelligence anal&sis at the @omeland !ecurit& Ce"artment. 9nli5e ?-00.htm1 MI2MI H %here is real danger that Islamic e/tremist grou"s such as al-gaida and @e=bollah could form alliances #ith #ealth& and "o#erful 4atin 2merican drug lords to launch ne# terrorist attac5s. %he a"ocal&"se #ould be u"on us. Medina could "ossibl& be added to the target list Fust to ma5e the "oint #ith cr&stal clarit&. ZC>N%IN9E!{ >r the "resident might decide sim"l& to at the Em"ire !tate 7uilding. es"eciall& #hen the 9nited !tates had no "ositi3e "roof that the destruction of Ne# Gor5 Cit& had been triggered b& radical Islamic e/tremists #ith assistance from Iran. the militar&. a 3eteran CI2 anal&st. launch a limited nuclear stri5e on %ehran itself. $%he threats in this hemis"here are real.$ said 2llen. 9. officials said Dednesda&. mostl& in3ol3ed in fundraising and finding logistical su""ort. the "resident. Muslims been incinerated b& the e/"losion that destro&ed Ne# Gor5 Cit&.!.An'erson/ ?8 (0*-X-)**X. Curt. Nothing #ould emerge intact after a #ar bet#een the 9nited !tates and Islam.$ %oti"ate' <iolence2 Atomic Iran/ )g 1>$-8OOS<D((T %he combination of horror and outrage that #ill surge u"on the nation #ill demand that the "resident retaliate for the incom"rehensible damage done b& the attac5. &et e3er& "resident is b& nature a "olitician. %hat Gor5. and the "ublic at large #ill sus"ect another attac5 b& our 5no#n enem& WIslamic terrorists. %he first im"ulse #ill be to launch a nuclear stri5e on Mecca. $%he "resence of these "eo"le in the region lea3es o"en the "ossibilit& that the& #ill attem"t to attac5 the *nited (tates. members of Congress. . %he "roblem is that a stri5e on %ehran #ould add more nuclear de3astation to the #orld calculation. %his might be the most rational o"tion in the attem"t to retaliate but still communicate restraint. E@tinction Corsi P: RSerome2 ) D in )oli (ci from Har"ar'/ E@pert in )olitically- De cannot ignore them. %he "er"etrators #ill ha3e Nor #ill there be an& "ossibilit& of finding an& clues. For this there the "resident might thin5 "oliticall& at this instant seems almost "ett&. 7ut for the "resident not to retaliate might be unacce"table to the 2merican "eo"le. 2P.+(*?Q/.

L9! #ar& of Iranian influence in 4atin 2merica.!.$ @e noted also that the Iranian "resident8s 3isit to Cuba and :ene=uela stressed Iran8s interest in e/"anding its ties #ith the current go3ernments in the Destern @emis"here. @e #arned against $3oices$ of both the Cemocratic Part& of President 7arac5 >bama and Re"ublican ad3ocates of reducing coo"eration #ith the region to sto" aid to countries li5e Colombia and Me/ico. @e urged 9.!.!. has e/"ressed concern about the e/"ansion of Iranian influence in 4atin 2merica and claimed that Iran8s "resence in this region is a maFor and significant threat. said the goal no# should be to achie3e a continent #ith $free mar5et. authorities to increase their direct coo"eration "olic& #ith 4atin 2merican countries .!. 7oehner. 'ohn 7oehner said that a "ossible rift bet#een the 9. Curing a conference held %uesda& at the 9. W (4isa.Impact – Iran E@pansionism – LA Heg (ol"es Increase' engagement sol"es Iranian e@pansionism 5arpo"a/ 1.!. %he increasing trend of "ublic o"inion in 4atin 2merica to the "rogressi3e go3ernments in the region has considerabl& declined 9. .!. and thus the go3ernment in Dashington has lost man& regional allies. he said that $the 3isit of the Persian to the region re3eals that Iran has "lans to increase its influence in 4atin 2merica. free trade and free citi=ens$ and thereb& the 9.$ Referring to the last 3isit of Iranian President Mahmud 2hmadineFad to 4atin 2merican countries. influence. !tate Ce"artment. can com"romise #ith 4atin 2merican countries. #ho #elcomed the ratification in >ctober in the 9."ra3da. sa&ing that.M >ctober 0* th.!. and 4atin 2merica could threaten unit& and democrac& in the region . %he !"ea5er of the @ouse of Re"resentati3es. )*0). htt"J--english. $%he 9. go3ernment needs to intensif& its coo"eration #ith 4atin 2merica to sto" Iranian e/"ansion. Re"ublican 'ohn 7oehner.ru-hots"ots-crimes-0*-*I-)*0)-0)0*XE9!Q#ar&QofQIranianQinfluence-*-1--@24 Iranian influence in 4atin 2merica gi3es rise to #orr& in 9nited !tates . Congress of the free trade agreements #ith Colombia and Panama.

ma& celebrate #hat the& call the end of 9. as its econom& rebounded Buic5l& and strongl& from the )**( global financial crisis until )*0).!. strategic and economic interests. economic.!. Da5e Earl& 7ird FileR Dhile there #ere economic moti3ations for Canadian "olic& in Central 2merica.!.!. For e/am"le. Nicaragua. dominance (and a number of 9.the $colossus of the north. leadershi" and "o#er ha3e also brought benefits. and "olitical o3er#helming "redominance.Impact – LA Insta!ility – . countries in the region ha3e long benefited from the securit& "ro3ided b& being in the 9. "o#er in 4atin 2merica.!. influence in matters as di3erse as the threat of "olitical u"hea3al in :ene=uela to the 9N dri3e to sanction Iran for its nuclear ambitions. securit& considerations #ere "erha"s more im"ortant. beginning in Central 2merica and s"reading else#here in 4atin 2merica.!. instabilit& created b& a regional #ar . 7ra=il has sought a greater regional and e3en global role. 2t the same time.!. client states in 4atin 2merica. di"lomatic and militar& s"here of influence. "olic& that has allo#ed it to inter3ene either o3ertl& or co3ertl& at #ill to im"ose its national interests N su""ort "olic& "references and alliesN and in some cases. "o#er that ha3e th#arted the "olitical and economic de3elo"ment of countries such as Guatemala or @aiti. Perce"tions of declining 9. militar&. Cuba.!. %he standard frame#or5 for describing and understanding 9.!. 4atin 2merica #ill actuall& miss the reduced 9.!. and so on W #ere lin5ed to the "ros"ect of e/"losi3e e3ents occurring in the hemis"here. Professor of Political !cience at >5anagan 9. often #ith blood& conseBuences. 0E*-0E0. t ere may li5el& !e a 'o#n si'e to t e retrenc ment of *2(2 lea'ers ip and "rerogati3e in t e region2 Dhile there are multi"le tragic e/am"les of 9. other more sober go3ernments such as 7ra=il and Chile are alread& calling for a rebalancing of "o#er in the #estern hemis"here. anti-2merican sentiment "roduced b& decades of subFugation to 9. College. Dill a shift in 9. 7ut #hile 4atin 2merica has long chafed o3er 9.!. often as an alternati3e to 9. such as former President @ugo Cha3e= of :ene=uela. Editor in Chief of 2mericas guarterl& and !enior Cirector of Polic& at the 2mericas !ociet& and the Council of the 2mericas. if 9.!. mounting e/ternal debt.!. %he last ten &ears ha3e #itnessed the emergence of regional and multilateral "o#ers see5ing to assert regional di"lomatic "o#er. Moreo3er. !"ring )*0E. Canada "ossessed an interest in "romoting stabilit& in the face of a "otential decline of 9. %ashma1 From the co3er of the !e"tember )*0* issue of %he Economist to the "ages of Foreign 2ffairs Fournalists and obser3ers are "roclaiming the decline of 9.-4atin 2merican relations these "ast decades has been one #here the 9nited !tates stands as the "rimar& hegemonic "o#er . is it "ossible that. "o#er south of its border has indeed #aned. go3ernments ha3e long relied on 9. "resence and e3en 9. 9. due to the #ildl& ineBuitable di3isions of #ealth in some 9. "o#er #ea5en these hemis"heric "ublic goods6 + at sol"es glo!al #arfare 9oc lin/ 0E Z'ames Francis. at times $"assing the buc5$ to ha3e 9.!. LDI44 42%IN 2MERIC2 MI!! 9. the Central 2merican imbroglio #as 3ie#ed as a fuse #hich could ignite a catacl&smic "rocess throughout the region. hegemon& in the 2mericas. that "o#er has sha"ed a 9.!.!.!. and :ene=uela among others in a bloc 3o#ed to o""ose a no#-defunct "lan to establish a hemis"here-#ide free-trade agreement.!. @ence.M 'ournal of International 2ffairs.!. @EGEM>NG6.E Get. if not to s"ecificall& reduce the role of the 9nited !tates in intra-regional di"lomac&. academics as #ell1. leadershi" to cham"ion s"ecific causes. technical assistance and coo"eration hel"ed focus national attention and energ& on addressing 3iolence and crime in countries li5e Colombia and Me/ico. in addition to "olitical re"ression. !imilarl&. 0-a:I.!. hegemon&6 %he united !tates8 reduced abilit& to unilaterall& get #hat it #ants in the hemis"here is alread& sha"ing 4atin 2merican countries8 calculations of domestic and foreign "olicies and the formation of multilateral alliances. Discovering the Americas: The Evolution of Canadian Foreign Policy Towards Latin America . #hich includes 7oli3ia. e/erting its ne#-found di"lomatic and economic muscle. recent cases of 9. Ecuador.!. underde3elo"ment.AC 9etaining *2(2 lea'ers ip in Latin American is "ital to sta!ility (a!atini/ 14 (Christo"her.$) !ince the Monroe Coctrine.!. %his securit& has hel"ed states struggling #ith 3iolence and instabilit& and contributed to intra-regional "eace. %he most ob3ious and "ointed e/am"le is the 7oli3arian 2lliance for the Peo"les of our 2mericas (24721 formed b& former President of :ene=uela @ugo Cha3e=. 2nal&sts at the time #orried that in a #orstcase scenario. might "reoccu"& Dashington to the e/tent that the 9nited !tates #ould be unable to "erform adeBuatel& its im"ortant hegemonic role in the international arena W a concern e/"ressed b& the director of research for Canada’s . "g. 0 Dhile some "o"ulist leaders. e3en o3erturn go3ernments. ProBuest. su""ort ser3e as a foil for a general "rinci"le or "olic& that the& su""ort but do not #ant to lead "ublicl&.!. Issue ). inter3ention and a long histor& of abuse b& 9. :olume ++. influence in the region W #hich had some credibilit& in 0?(?-0?X.

%his is one of the moti3ations #hich led Canada to become in3ol3ed in efforts at regional conflict resolution. as #ill be discussed in the ne/t cha"ter. . such as Contadora.!tanding Committee Re"ort on Central 2merica. It #as feared that s&c a pre'icament co&l' generate increase' global instability an' "erha"s e3en a hegemonic war.

) No. #ere deemed b& man& nationalist leaders as the best S route to#ard national de3elo"ment. S states #ill see5 to challenge. in addition to "eace and "ros"erit&. the #ould-be hegemon at the first o""ortunit&. De can S argue then that #ea5 states #ill come to acce"t the leadershi" of a hegemonic "o#er onl& as long as that hegemon S offers im"ortant collecti3e goods.iFhssnet. #hile a S "re"onderance of "o#er is "roduced and maintained "rinci"all& b& forceHreal"oliti5H hegemon& constitutes a S uniBue "o#er arrangement that reBuires more than real"oliti5 from the hegemonic "o#er. or balance. Cardoso S "romoted neoliberal economic "olicies. 0?(+N Krasner. S 2s a freemar5et. the countries of 4atin 2merica ha3e esche#ed statism and increasingl& S embraced free trade. 0?(IN Krasner. S ConseBuentl&. or non-liberal international s&stem. %hese statist economic S "olicies. #e see a region that since "olitical inde"endence has suffered almost no S inter-state conflict. @egemonic stabilit& theor& S suggests that a hegemonic "o#er #ill "ro3ide both "eace and "ros"erit& to the s&stem at large. the countries of 4atin S 2merica began to embrace economic "olicies that "laced the state at the economic helm. scholars #ho focus on securit& ha3e "ointed out that hegemonic "o#ers also S "romote stabilit& and coo"eration (!ee Gil"in. meaning that the S subordinate states #ill enFo& these collecti3e goods b& coo"erating #ith the hegemon (!ee Krasner and Debb. #hen he became "resident of 7ra=il in 0??I. "ri3ati=ation. 2fter the Great Ce"ression. Peace of course is deemed a "recondition for "ros"erit&. since the dominance of the Dashington Consensus in the 0?X*s . mainl& "ros"erit& and "eace. democrac& and self- determination. are also 3alues that S subordinate states e/"ect as deri3ati3es of 2merican hegemon&. S #hich "romoted neoliberal "olicies. %his sustained regional "eace can be attributed to the "resence of a 9! "re"onderance of S "o#er. as #ell as free-mar5et "olicies. If not. "rinci"all& im"ort substitution industriali=ation. S 0?X?1. Megan !holar is a PhC ` 4o&ola 9ni3ersit& in Chicago. (LPo#er and Princi"leJ 2 Ne# 9! Polic& for 4atin 2mericaMN International 'ournal of @umanities and !ocial !cience :ol. Peter !anche=(PhC1 is a Professor P Graduate Program Cirector (GPC1 ` 4o&ola 9ni3ersit& in Chicago."df. Cardoso #as a leading de"endenc& theorist #ho argued that global S ca"italism 5ee"s "oor countries from de3elo"ingN ho#e3er. Perha"s the most salient e/am"le is S President Fernando EnriBue Cardoso of 7ra=il. FF1 9sing Lhegemon&M more broadl&. 0??I1. and laisse= faire economics in genera l.com-Fournals-:olQ)QNoQ)EQCecemberQ)*0)-E. Dhen loo5ing at 4atin 2merica. @o#e3er.. the 9nited !tates through its ideological influence e/"ects subordinate S states in 4atin 2merica to embrace democratic "rinci"les and institutions. %hus. )EN Cecember )*0)N htt"J--###. . hegemon& is deemed to S be more conduci3e to "ros"erit& than is an anarchical. so in addition to securit&. democratic hegemon. as balance of "o#er theorists suggest. conflict-"rone.Impact – LA Insta!ility – 1A9 *( eg promotes sta!ility in Latin America t ro&g free tra'e an' 'emocracy (anc e6 an' ( olar 1.

as nearl& . oil-de"endent countries ma& lac5 a 3iable "olitical alternati3e to the status Buo should the go3ernment colla"se.M !tanford 'ournal of International Relations.M 0.. 0*. un"o"ular gri" on "o#er. o""osition mo3ements remain largel& untested and could "ro3e eBuall& ine"t.!. '.stanford. energ& originates in the 2ndean countries. htt"J--###. LChina8s Economic and Political Clout Gro#s in 4atin 2merica at the E/"ense of 9. an& abru"t "olitical change in an oil-e/"orter can lead to a "o#er 3acuum and the dangerous re3itali=ation of embedded social conflicts (i. e3en if the go3ernment e/ercises an autocratic. needs high oil "rices to 5ee" its econom& afloat. In fact. '. assuring 9. the 9nited !tates cannot afford to shoc5 the international oil regime b& ceasing its e/"enditures on oil #ithout "reci"itating conflict W conflicts that #ould li5el& reBuire foreign (most "robabl& 2merican1 militar& inter3ention. Interests 0. Furthermore. candidate at the 9ni3ersit& of Minnesota 4a# !chool. Es"eciall& #ith "o"ulations historicall& "lagued b& #ides"read "o3ert&. national securit&. 0E Iran’s oil rents allo# the go3ernment to subsidi=e food and gas at a rate that Laccounted for 0) "ercentM of the nation’s GCP. Interests. the long-o""ressed &et oil-rich communities in the Celta region ma& sei=e u"on the o""ortunit& to e/act re3enge for historical inFustices.C. for e/am"le. !ummer )**I. 4atin 2merica and 9.Impact – Dil Depen'ence Goo' – . has stated that President 7ush8s "olic& on 4atin 2merica $is based on "romoting democrac& through "rograms aimed at curbing corru"tion and im"ro3ing education.$ 0*E 4atin 2merica is also an essential source of oil for the 9nited !tates. 0*? 9ece'ing oil 'epen'ence ca&ses glo!al collapse an' creates m&ltiple scenarios for glo!al #arfare La#rence/ 8 (2ndre# 4a#rence.7. 0.!. and reaching long-term trade agreements. "ercent of its GCP. le/is. 7oli3ia. 0*I It is im"erati3e for the 9nited !tates to secure future sources of oil from 4atin 2merica. M. and :ene=uela. "romoting democrac& and higher en3ironmental standards. 9. as the ram"ant 3iolence in the immediate aftermath of "ost!addam @ussein IraB demonstrated.edu-grou"-sFir-"df->ilQGo3ernanceQRE24Qfinal. Russia.e. 0* a trauma to the international oil s&stem ma& allo# for the "roliferation of hea3il&-armed factions in other#ise la#less en3ironments.AC Fail&re to strengt *2(2 infl&ence in Latin America sacrifices oil tra'e <ega/ : ('uan.2 at the 9ni3ersit& of Florida. sentiment throughout the region may =eopar'i6e the *nited (tates8s access to Latin American oil2 0*X %he election ZbE?)R of leftist leaders to "ositions of "o#er and a mo3ement throughout 4atin 2merica to nationali=e the oil industr& further add to this "otential decrease in 9. 0) !audi 2rabia W a countr& that "roduced fifteen of the nineteen hiFac5ers in the ?-00 terrorist attac5s W de"ends on oil re3enues for . "romoting trade. !tanford. Peru. fighting terrorism. 'ust as the oil mar5et de3elo"ed onto an international scale. #hich com"rise Colombia.!. In addition. sectarian 3iolence1. Nigeria is not the onl& countr& susce"tible to conflict as oil re3enues diminish. currentl& contains hea3il&-armed. Minn. 0*( 9nrest in :ene=uela and other oil-"roducing countries in 4atin 2merica as #ell as rising anti-9.!. so too did the resource curse s&m"toms that so often accom"an& oil e/"orters "roliferate from countr& to countr&. the colla"se of oil "rices that #ould surel& accom"an& the 9! #ithdra#al from the international oil regime . for instance. Global %rade E((. >il Interests Roger Noriega. 0*+ Fourteen of that t#ent& "ercent originates in :ene=uela. %#ent& "ercent of 9. For e/am"le. e/"anding antinarcotics "rograms. the a3ailabilit& of #ea"ons in oil-e/"orting countries could "otentiall& create insurgencies com"osed of "oor citi=ens see5ing to address grie3ances against the "ros"erous "olitical elites. Ecuador. access to 4atin 2merican oil. 7ecause oil #ealth sustains the economies of so man& oil-"roducing countries. should the 9nited !tates hastil& abandon the current oil regime and #ithdra# its militar& and "olitical su""ort from the oil e/"ort-de"endent Nigerian go3ernment. 2ssistant !ecretar& of !tate for Destern @emis"here 2ffairs. the 9nited !tates ma& obtain less coo"eration from 4atin 2merican countries #ith regard to securing oil. because e/"enditures on militar& and securit& forces as a "ercentage of re3enues are greater in oil-e/"orting countries than those of their im"orting counter"arts. 2s China gains more clout in 4atin 2merica. Fall-Dinter )**X.!. L^%he Most Incon3enient %ruthJ’ %he Necessit& of Good Go3ernance in >il-E/"orters. International Relations. and fighting drug traffic5ing. %he Niger Celta. "romoting human rights.!."df1 Get because Loil #ealth is robustl& associated #ith more durable regimesM ? that sometimes remain in "o#er for decades at a time.!. #ith a militar& budget near [I** billion and a militar& stretched thin b& simultaneous #ars. %ashma1 C. anti-go3ernment factions aggrie3ed b& their e/clusion from "etroleum re3enues. 00 2s such.* "ercent of e/"ort re3enue deri3es from oil and gas.

could ha3e "rofound and "otentiall& de3astating effects in these countries and. b& e/tension. . throughout the #orld.

E/"anding nuclear "o#erS #ould further efforts at energ& di3ersification. lo#er the energ& intensit& of nationalS economies.S %he second reason lies in dee"l& entrenched m&ths (#hich for m& "ur"oses I shall define as untruths breeding com"lacenc&1."df.ne# tec nologies ma. decrease greenhouse gas emissions. !#eig.ey to n&clear po#er implementation Bars efs. ***W)** ***1. safe. Dh& isn’t this solution uni3ersall& embraced and im"lemented6S I suggest t#o reasons. #hich "ro3ides base "o#er #ith =eroS greenhouse gas emissions. %his incom"lete "icture gi3es rise to m&ths that conflict directl& #ith the assertions of Gates and of 'ohn Parmentola. it #ould be for a "ractical. @ill.AC *(-Latin America relations are . #e humans res"ond much more strongl& to dramatic e3ents. but also "erennial. Datson is located near the Indian Point nuclear"o#er facilit&. "roduction. as 7ra=il’s construction of ne# reactors andS use of nuclear-"o#ered submarines attest. and foster greater energ& securit&S for the entire hemis"here. @e is no# a registered and "racticing "atent agent. !ince then. C>)-free energ& source.e fission safer an' more efficient Williams 14/ 2rthur Dilliams is a condensed-matter theorist.I. li5e earthBua5es. the 9! arm&8s director of research and laborator& managementJ that nuclear fission is the onl& L"racticalM solution in . Coo"eration on suchS issues "ro3ides a uniBue o""ortunit& for the 9nited !tates to reengageS 4atin 2merica "roacti3el&. if he could be granted a single #ish for the coming decades. and research hub in the long-term S de3elo"ment of a global biofuels mar5et. 2S little o3er fort& &ears ago. trillion. 2rgentina. our "ot is #arming so Buic5l& that #e must lea" to sur3i3e. FF1 4atin 2merica has also seen resurgent interest in nuclear "o#er. and coal dust (0E ***1 are not onl& higher. !hannon K. FF1 Global #arming. di3ersif&ing energ& sources could be an im"ortant dri3erS of economic de3elo"ment in 4atin 2merica as the region becomes anS im"ortant technolog&. and less hea3il& on those #ith the means to address the challenge. retired from I7M8s %homas '. Datson Research Center after E* &ears there. 3iolent #eather and terrorist acts. that its burden falls most hea3il& on the "oliticall& 3oiceless "oor.Impact – N&clear )o#er Goo' – .ey to sol"ing glo!al #arming. %he gradual character of carbon dio/ide emissions and global #arming is ele3ating our Lboiling frogM tendencies to an entirel& ne# scale of danger. LNuclear "o#erJ %he onl& a3ailable solution to global #armingMN htt"J--###. and Me/ico ha3e builtS se3en nuclear "o#er "lants. Council on Foreign Relations. such as auto accidents. energ& inde"endence.org-content-"ublications-attachments-4atin2mericaQ%F. %he death tolls in the 9! from auto accidents (E* ***1. Charlene 7arshefs5&. effort and mone& he has de3oted to ne# 3accines and seeds. medical errors and coal "articles. rooted in unrealisticall& high e/"ectations for rene#able energ& and unrealisticall& negati3e e/"ectations for nuclear "o#er. 'ulia E. %he dis"arit& adds to our inertia. although onl& 2rgentina has established aS strong technical ca"acit& in this areaHa ca"acit& that recentl& has been ta""ed b& :ene=uela to e/"lore the "ossible de3elo"ment of a nuclear S energ& "rogram of its o#n."h&sicstoda&.-4atin 2mericaS RelationsJS 2 Ne# Cirection for aS Ne# Realit&S Re"ort of anS Inde"endent %as5 ForceM.!. 4i3ing and #or5ing near Indian Point continues to moti3ate him to learn about the issues surrounding nuclear "o#er. than #e do to stead&-state threats. clean. First. @o#e3er. 'ames %.S the& can hel" di3ersif& energ& choices. #ith shared en3ironmental and energ& concernsS dee"ening di"lomatic relationshi"s. 2t a cost of [.cfr. %hat e/"licit "rioriti=ation reflects his a#areness of an es"eciall& unfortunate feature of #arming. #ater scarcit& and third-#orld economic gro#th are all amenable to a common. Dhile being mindful of the need to guarantee S food securit&. ###. #e started t#o #ars in res"onse to the terrorist attac5s of ?-00 that 5illed )??+. S %he %as5 Force finds that although biofuels #ill not dis"lace oil and gas. there a""eared to be a genuine ris5 of aS nuclear arms race in the regionHa trend that #as short-circuited b&S the establishment of a Nuclear Dea"ons Free ]one b& the 0?+( %reat&S of %latelolco. %as5 Force Chairs (L9. medical errors (.. N&clear po#er . 7ra=il. %oda& there is a com"elling argument forS the e/"ansion of nuclear energ&. (*.-*X-0E. 2lthough the "roblem ma& not e/cite us.org-dail&Qedition-"ointsQofQ3ie#-nuclearQ"o#erQtheQonl&Qa3ailab leQsolutionQtoQglobalQ#armingkbio.y et al ?8. cost-com"etiti3e and field-tested nuclear solution. 2 measure of the magnitude and urgenc& of this challenge can be found in 7ill Gates’ summar& of his #onderful %EC lecture on this to"icJ Ces"ite the time. Criticism of nuclear "o#er focuses on histor& and ignores dramatic ad3ances in fission technolog&. achie3ing suchS e/"ansion #ill reBuire that 4atin 2merica address the com"le/ challengesS of managing and dis"osing of uranium and nuclear #aste andS meeting international standards (es"eciall& gi3en concerns o3erCham3e=’sS desire for nuclear-enrichment ca"abilit& and a relationshi" #ith Iran1. >’Neil.

#hose accumulation in solid-fuel reactors also reduces the time that fuel can remain in the reactor. safet&. S M&th k0J Dind and solar can do itS Rene#able sources. but not a sur"rise. S 2s Gates "uts it. cost still re"resents a disad3antage of se3eral hundred "ercent that has been com"ensated b& go3ernment subsidies.S M&th k)J Nuclear is unsafeS %here are t#o safet& issues in the conte/t of nuclear "o#erJ meltdo#n and terrorism.S @igh-le3el #astes "roduced b& fission are una3oidable. Refueling freBuenc& is also reduced in molten-salt reactors b& the continuous remo3al of neutron-absorbing /enon.S M&th kEJ Nuclear #aste remains an unsol3ed "roblem S 2s the term Lbreed-and-burnM suggests. but the& are onl& a tin& fraction of #hat #e call nuclear #aste. "roliferation and #aste.S E3en if large tracts of land. but stem from militar& "riorities fa3oring fuel rods com"rised of metal-clad ceramics. and acti3e cooling ("o#ered e/ternall&1 is reBuired to "re3ent o3erheating. %he good ne#s is that ne# fission tec nologies ma.3ie#. 2lso. ma5ing it costcom"etiti3e. #ithout theft of fissile material b& terrorists. the reactor can be drained. trans"ort such as high-tension to#ers must be "ro3ided. Moreo3er. C>)-free trans"ortation and sea#ater desalination. since no additional melting is "ossible. and tide. such as those in the !ahara or the 2merican !outh#est. %he high energ& densit& and a3ailabilit& of coal ma5e it misleadingl& attracti3e. cost. Dhile the discussion of rene#ables often focuses on cost. ne/t-generation fission technologies are related to and "ro3ide the benefits of re"rocessing. for e/am"le. >ne technolog& claims to reduce the high-le3el #aste out"ut of a t&"ical "o#er "lant from )* tons "er &ear to a fe# 5ilograms. the cost-effecti3e heat "roduced b& fission is s&mbiotic #ith t#o highl& de3elo"ed technologies that address t#o of our most critical challenges. 2merican startu"s are "ursuing commerciali=ation. Ceramics conduct heat "oorl&. Gates estimates that all the #orld’s e/isting batteries can store onl& about 0* minutes of electricit& consum"tion.e fission clean/ safe/ competiti"ely ine@pensi"e/ an' resistant to terrorism . #here it is both hot and diluted. 7ecause ne/t-generation reactors integrate breeding and burning into a single "rocess. #hich is about t#ice that of both residential and commercial energ& consum"tion. the& sol3e the nuclear-#aste challenge. S Gates and Parmentola also em"hasi=e the urgenc& for halting C>) emissions. scale. 7ecause the intrinsic "o#er densit& of rene#able sources is orders of magnitude lo#er than that of h&drocarbons and nuclear "rocesses.M and e/amines the factors of a3ailabilit&. melting and ru"ture of the cladding. S 2 bonus. it is "o#er densit& and intermittenc& that cons"ire #ith cost to "re3ent these technologies from "ro3iding adeBuate solutions. in #hat sense can fission contribute to C>)-free trans"ortation6 %he ans#er is the s&nthesis of ammonia. notabl& China and India. @argra3es concludes that at least one of the ne/t-generation breed-and-burn fission technologies can "roduce electricit& for about [*. to "roduce about X*_ of its electricit& from fission for decades. ne/t-generation fission can sol3e the #aste "roblem created b& "resent-generation fission. 2 molten-salt reactor ran successfull& and #ithout incident at >a5 Ridge National 4aborator& for four &ears.S %he remainder of this essa& comments on Gates’ criteria for L"racticalit&. large tracts of land are reBuired to rea" e3en modest Buantities of "o#er. necessitating remo3al of the fuel long before it is full& consumed. For e/am"le. Molten-salt reactors are Bualitati3el& different. S Dhile the relati3e cost of rene#able sources is im"ro3ing. the electricit& "roduced is inherentl& intermittent. %he intrinsic safet& and relati3e sim"licit& of the coming generation of breed-and-burn fission reactors ma5es them significantl& less e/"ensi3e than those of the "resent generation. thereb& reducing the ris5 of theft significantl& belo# e3en that of re"rocessing. emit no C>). !uch reactors are termed L#al5-a#a&M safe. 2t an& time and #ithout an& e/ternal "o#er.J Fission ma& "ro3ide electricit&. %he com"lete burning of nuclear fuel in molten-salt reactors "ro3ides all the benefits of re"rocessing. that #aste "roduction can be reduced from tons to 5ilograms. In toda&’s solid-fuel reactors the fuel is clad in metals that can tolerate onl& a limited amount of neutron bombardment. 2n inde"endent benefit of molten-salt technologies is that the fissile material can remain in the reactor until it is com"letel& consumed. fissile material does not e/ist outside the reactor. %his distinction is the basis of the claim b& the MI%-based startu". In the "resent conte/t. reliabilit&. technologies for rene#able energ& re"resent energ& farming. #hich has "ermitted France. but as @argra3es em"hasi=es in his e/tensi3el& researched boo5. !ubsidies might continue. !uch dangers are not intrinsic to fission. thereb& "roducing dramaticall& less #aste. and that’s undeniabl& good. %horiumJ Energ& Chea"er than Coal. the "ros"ects for eliminating C>) emissions are greatl& im"ro3ed if the alternati3e "o#er source is chea"er than h&drocarbons. In m& 3ie#. S M&th k. More s"ecificall&. the e/"loiting the molten state leads to an inherentl& safe reactor design. the follo#ing si/ #ides"read and "aral&=ing m&ths must be addressed. increasing b& a factor of E* the energ& obtained from a gi3en Buantit& of fuel. !ince fission reactors are unli5el& to be "laced in cars and truc5s.S Concerns raised b& incidents at %hree Mile Island and Chernob&l #ere seriousl& aggra3ated b& recent e3ents at Fu5ushima. 7oth are essentiall& eliminate' !y ne@t-generation fission tec nologies. In this #a&. gi3en the connection bet#een breed-and-burn reactors and re"rocessing. but it neither fuels trans"ortation nor "ro3ides clean #aterS Fission "roduces chea" heat. b& gra3it&. is that some ne# reactors can consume e/isting nuclear #asteHboth de"leted and s"ent fuel. N@E s&nthesis is among the most "romising . although Green"eace did bloc5 a "lutonium shi"ment. but much of the action is in other countries. into a subterranean 3essel in #hich "assi3e cooling suffices . #hich is broadl& useful . %ransatomic Po#er. Its fractional share is a""roaching that of industr&. are em"lo&ed.*E-5Dh. solar. the far su"erior thermal conducti3it& of molten salt eliminates the need for acti3e cooling. First. because land is not a3ailable near "o"ulation centers. e3en #ith coal. S %rans"ortation consumes a large fraction of the energ& budget. li5e #ind. and must be stored and trans"orted .

Cistillation can use fission-"roduced heat directl&. and #hat #as once a mere "ossibilit& has "assed through "robabilit& to near certaint&. #ho li3es E* miles from the 2rctic Circle. and b& )*I* the& #ill reach I** ""m. LIn legitimate scientific circles.. Kir5 !orensen. the& o"erate at atmos"heric "ressure. emissions &n'er control . and guaranteed safet& of ne/t-generation fission "lants combine to reduce the NIM7G (not in m& bac5&ard1 resistance to their siting. no# called 4F%R (lithium-fluoride thorium reactor1. S Dhere the action isS 2s Ca3id Kramer re"orted in the No3ember )*0) issue of Ph&sics %oda&. #here it ran successfull& for four &ears. demands urgent action.*** &ears ago until the beginning of the industrial re3olution. L%he& call it climate changecbut #e Fust call it brea5ing u". Deinberg de3oted the rest of his life to the "romotion of 4F%RN the Deinberg Foundation continues his mission.N@E Y E>) O )N) Y +@)>S Fission also offers a choice bet#een electricall& "o#ered re3erse osmosis and traditional distillation as means to "roduce "otable #ater. )**(l LForeign 2ffairs !trateg&J 4ogic for 2merican !tatecraftM. It is the threat of global #arming to the stabilit& of the climate u"on #hich all earthl& life de"ends.M E3idence from a 3ast international scientific monitoring effort accumulates almost #ee5l&. L%he #orld is slo#l& disintegrating.S M&th kIJ Nuclear installations are large. but its much lo#er cost gi3es it a "rice-"erformance ad3antage. onl& to slo# their increase. In the "resent conte/t. 2t "resent the& are accelerating to#ard . M& ho"e is that greater a#areness of the benefits "romised b& coming fission technologies #ill debun5 the m&ths currentl& stalling "ublic and "ri3ate in3estment. 'a"an and German&. and . 2l3in Deinberg. %he original molten-fuel reactor #as intended to "o#er air"lanes. "lants are blooming se3eral da&s earlier than a decade agoMN Lrising sea tem"eratures ha3e been accom"anied b& a significant global increase in the most destructi3e hurricanesMN LN2!2 scientists ha3e concluded from direct tem"erature measurements that )**I #as the hottest &ear on record. %he MI%-based startu" %ransatomic Po#er recentl& #on an 2RP2-E com"etition as "art of its efforts to commerciali=e a 4F%R-related technolog& that #ill burn Ls"entM fuel or uranium. the 3isual signature of toda&’s fission "lants.** ""m. Corres"ondingl&. s"ecies e/tinction . as this sam"le of ne#s"a"er re"orts sho#sJ an international "anel "redicts Lbrutal droughts. More im"ortantl&. %erraPo#er. the efficienc&. 2s the ne#s"a"er stories Buoted abo3e sho#. #as not "oliticall& #elcome. !uch reactors also lend themsel3es to factor& manufacture. the 3alue of "otable #ater is rising ra"idl&. so there is no #a& immediatel& to reduce le3els. the molten-salt thorium reactor #as de3elo"ed at >a5 Ridge National 4ab in the 0?+*s. #i"e a#a& huge "ortions of 2l"ine !no#ca"s and aid the s"read of cholera and malariaMN Lglaciers in the 2ntarctic and in Greenland are melting much faster than e/"ected. mass die offs of "lants and animals. and led to his firing b& President Ni/on in 0?(E. Gates is in3ol3ed #ith one such com"an&.e/"loitations of heat from fission. Lit is 3irtuall& im"ossible to find e3idence of disagreement o3er the fundamentals of global #arming. e/"ensi3e and "roblematic to site S %he greater efficienc& of molten-salt reactors ma5es them smaller for a gi3en ca"acit&. #hich eliminates both the threat of e/"losion and the need for a large containment structure. #hereas re3erse osmosis is 3er& energ& demanding. Indeed not one of more than ?** articles on climate change "ublished in refereed scientific Fournals from 0??E to )**E doubted that anthro"ogenic #arming is occurring. enthusiasm for nuclear "o#er has #aned in the 9!. N@E burns to form air and #aterJ S . elimination of the containment structure renders molten-salt facilities relati3el& small and ine/"ensi3e. and can use fission-"roduced electricit&.no#n tec nology capa!le of !ringing CD. %he Fu5ushima e3ents ha3e led to similar declines in 'a"an and German&. #e are thus in for significant global #armingN the onl& debate is ho# much and ho# serous the effects #ill be. Fortunatel& for the #orld. ConclusionJ 2merican Foreign 2ffairs !trateg& %oda&1 Finall&. #e are alread& e/"eriencing the effects of 0-) degree #arming in more 3iolent storms. #hich is focused on 4F%R commerciali=ation. floods and 3iolent storms across the "lanet o3er the ne/t centur&MN climate change could Lliterall& alter ocean currents. Professor of IR ` National Dar College (%err& 4. reduced si=e. 9&na#ay #arming ca&ses e@tinction Dei!el >. about double "re-industrial le3els. #hich. %he infrastructure for N@E "roduction and distribution is alread& #ides"read. leads the startu" Flibe. 2s mentioned abo3e.*** deaths and I million illnesses each &ear M as disease s"readsN L#ides"read bleaching from %e/as to %rinidadc5illed broad s#aths of coralsM due to a )-degree rise in sea tem"eratures. there is one maFor e/istential threat to 2merican securit& (as #ell as "ros"erit&1 of a non3iolent nature.S M&th k+J Nuclear reBuires length& de3elo"ment (ne# game changer needed1S Driting in the Februar& )*0E issue of Ph&sics %oda&. N@E has about half the energ& content b& #eight of gasoline. In combination #ith the "er3asi3e relati3e sim"licit& of molten-fuel reactors. and #ill benefit directl& from chea" clean "o#er.M concluded Inuit hunter Noah MetuB. atmos"heric C>) lasts about a centur&. !cientists #orld#ide ha3e been obser3ing the gathering of this threat for three decades no#. N@E can be 3ie#ed as an es"eciall& effecti3e medium for h&drogen storage and deli3er&. andc#orld#ide. at least initiall&.M #rites Eli=abeth Kolbert. 'ohn Parmentola called for the in3ention of a game-changing fission technolog&. though far in the future. Most im"ortantl&. and re3erse the unfortunate trend in the 9!. others are mo3ing for#ardN consider fission facilities in ChinaJ S 0. 9nfortunatel&.S %he call for startu"s and game changers re3eals the great iron& of this conte/tJ that arguabl& the most "romising of the breed-and-burn technologies is not at all ne# .M From the founding of the first cities some +. s"read of disease. #hich #ill commerciali=e an inno3ati3e solid-fuel breedand-burn technolog&. #ith 0??X a close secondMN L Earth’s #arming climate is estimated to contribute to more than 0I*. further reducing their cost. Either #a&.S 2 measure of the significance of the >a5 Ridge effort is the con3iction and enthusiasm of the >a5 Ridge lab director. S 2 contem"orar& "ro"onent of 4F%R. Gates calls for hundreds of startu"s "ursuing different 3ariations on the common theme. o"erationalS )( under constructionS I0 "lannedS 0)* "ro"osedS )0) totalS %he central assertion here echoes that of both Gates and ParmentolaJ n&clear fission is t e only . carbon dio/ide le3els in the atmos"here remained relati3el& constant at about )X* "arts "er million (""m1. @is =eal for the intrinsic safet& and other 3irtues of the molten-salt reactor.

and then e3er&thing #ill colla"se. Economist Dilliam Cline once estimated the damage to the 9nited !tates alone from moderate le3els of #arming at 0-+ "ercent of GCP annuall& N se3ere #arming could cost 0E-)+ "ercent of GCP. sa&s "h&sics "rofessor Mart& @offert of Ne# Gor5 9ni3ersit&. Faced #ith this s"ecter. leading to a sea le3el of rise of )* feet that #ould co3er North Carolina’s outer ban5s. 2t #orst. e3en though no one #as then "ouring e3erincreasing amounts of carbon into the atmos"here. L#e’re Fust going to burn e3er&thing u"N #e’re going to heat the atmos"here to the tem"erature it #as in the Cretaceous #hen there #ere crocodiles at the "oles. 2nother catastro"hic effect #ould be the colla"se of the 2tlantic thermohaline circulation that 5ee"s the #inter #eather in Euro"e far #armer than its latitude #ould other#ise allo#. It is a threat not onl& to the securit& and "ros"erit& to the 9nited !tates. astronomer Carl !agan "o"ulari=ed a theor& of nuclear #inter to describe ho# a thermonuclear #ar bet#een the 9ntied !tates and the !o3iet 9nion #ould not onl& destro& both countries but "ossibl& end life on this "lanet. but "otentiall& to the continued e@istence of life on t is planet2 . Past ice age transitions. the best one can conclude is that Lhuman5ind’s continuing enhancement of the natural greenhouse effect is a5in to "la&ing Russian roulette #ith the earth’s climate and humanit&’s life su""ort s&stem.M Curing the Cold Dar. 7ut the most frightening scenario is runa#a& greenhouse #arming. associated #ith onl& I-0* degree changes in a3erage global tem"eratures. >3er the long run it "uts dangers form terrorism and traditional militar& challenges to shame. and inundate Manhattan u" to the middle of Green#ich :illage. based on "ositi3e feedbac5 from the buildu" of #ater 3a"or in the atmos"here that is both caused b& and causes hotter surface tem"eratures. s#am" the southern third of Florida. too5 "lace in Fust decades.threatened inundation of lo#-l&ing countries li5e the Pacific nation of Kiribati and the Netherlands at a #arming of I degrees or less the Greenland and Dest 2ntarctic ice sheets could disintegrate. Global #arming is the "ost-Cold Dar era’s eBui3alent of nuclear #inter at least as serious and considerabl& better su""orted scientificall& .

2 contrast can be dra#n here #ith the global catastro"he that #ould come from a massi3e nuclear e/change bet#een t#o or more of the so3ereign states that "ossess these #ea"ons in significant numbers. Dhile anal&sis needs to recogni=e 9. Professor of !trategic !tudies and Cirector of the Centre for !trategic !tudiesJ Ne# ]ealand at the :ictoria 9ni3ersit& of Dellington. in the e3ent of a terrorist nuclear attac5 on the 9 nited !tates.!. he has studied in Me/ico and Chile. #ould not necessaril& re"resent the #orst of the nuclear #orlds imaginable. E3en the #orst terrorism that the t#ent&-first centur& might bring #ould fade into insignificance alongside considerations of #hat a general nuclear #ar #ould ha3e #rought in the Cold Dar "eriod. it is necessar& to mo3e be&ond a restricti3e 3ie# of autonom& as noninterference to the aforementioned 3ie# that is mindful of 4atin 2merican agenc& . %he "rinci"al #ea5ness of defining change according to a conFuncture of e/ternal factors is that it fails to recogni=e 4atin 2merican states and their ca"acit& to influence e/ternal factors. :olume I). it might #ell be #ondered . "ages EEW+).!.!. de"ends on the 9nited !tates and its strategic interest at an& gi3en time. Issue (. and e3en the use of nuclear #ea"ons in res"onse b& the countr& attac5ed in the first "lace.!. March Xth. It is Fust "ossible that some sort of terrorist attac5. toda&’s and tomorro#’s terrorist grou"s might assume the "lace allotted during the earl& Cold Dar &ears to ne# state "ossessors of small nuclear arsenals #ho #ere seen as raising the ris5s of a catal&tic nuclear #ar bet#een the su"er"o#ers started b& third "arties. in addition to claims of hegemonic o3erreach. +errorism lea's to great po#er #arfare ----. 9. :olume EE. %hese inter"retations of change are based on an understanding of autonom& as LnoninterferenceMN that is. !"ring )*0*. 2 change in hemis"heric relations. 2nd it must be admitted that as long as the maFor nuclear #ea"ons states ha3e hundreds and e3en thousands of nuclear #ea"ons at their dis"osal. Issue 0.AC *( infl&ence stops t e contin&e' 'isconnect an' presence sp&rs Latin American policies to sol"e t e War on +error Emerson/ 1? W PhC from the 2N9 !chool of !ocial !ciences. %hese ris5s #ere considered in the late 0?I*s and earl& 0?+*s as concerns gre# about nuclear "roliferation. %he hemis"heric disconnect has occurred due to 9. For e/am"le. and is currentl& associated #ith the 2ustralian National Centre for 4atin 2merican !tudies (2NC42!1. the so-called nY0 "roblem. but also reduces the fear of "ossible retribution should those interests contradict 9.only scenario for escalation Ayson/ 1? ZRobert 2&son. Indeed. 7ut these t#o nuclear #orldsHa non-state actor nuclear attac5 and a catastro"hic interstate nuclear e/changeHare not necessaril& se"arable. obFecti3es. and es"eciall& an act of nuclear terrorism. #ithdra#al from the region and not through action in 4atin 2merica itself . and 4atin 2merican interests better e/"lains the "resent state of interamerican relations. :ie#ed through a geostrategic lens. '!%>R1--@24 2 Priori !hortcomings 2t first glance. %he logical e/tension of this 3ie# is that the abilit& of 4atin 2merican states to act inde"endentl& e/"ands and contracts irres"ecti3e of their action. an understanding of interamerican relations that em"hasi=es the im"ortance of fa3orable geo"olitical factors largel& be&ond 4atin 2merica’s control. there are reasons to #onder #hether nuclear terrorism should e3er be regarded as belonging in the categor& of trul& e/istential threats. it is argued. In this conte/t. in3ol3ement in IraB and 2fghanistan.!. these interests are not absolute and should not o3ershado# e3ents in 4atin 2merica. studied Communication Cesign in Melbourne.M (t&'ies in Conflict N +errorism.!. at the 2N9 (Gu&. LRadical Neglect6 %he LDar on %errorM and 4atin 2merica. interests. %o o3ercome this #ea5ness. the argument that t e AWar on +errorB e@plains the 'iplomatic 'isconnect a""ears "ersuasi3e. "reoccu"ation be&ond the hemis"here not onl& a""ears to offer 4atin 2merica the fle/ibilit& to generate "olic& o"tions according to its o#n interests.M 42%IN 2MERIC2N P>4I%IC! 2NC !>CIE%G. enables 4atin 2merica to challenge its subordination in interamerican relations.Impact – +errorism – . 'ul&. It ma& reBuire a considerable amount of imagination to de"ict an es"eciall& "lausible situation #here an act of nuclear terrorism could lead to such a massi3e inter-state nuclear #ar.L2fter a %errorist Nuclear 2ttac5J En3isaging Catal&tic Effects. )*0*. 23ailable >nline to !ubscribing Institutions 3ia InformaDorldR 2 terrorist nuclear attac5. could "reci"itate a chain of e3ents leading to a massi3e e/change of nuclear #ea"ons bet#een t#o or more of the states that "ossess them. there is al#a&s the "ossibilit& of a trul& a#ful nuclear e/change ta5ing "lace "reci"itated entirel& b& state "ossessors themsel3es. 9. 2 multidimensional a""roach ac5no#ledging both 9.

or if the& #ere confronting each other from a distance in a "ro/& #ar. and "robabl& Israel and India as #ell. "resident might be e/"ected to "lace the co&ntryCs arme' forces/ incl&'ing its n&clear arsenal/ on a ig er stage of alert2 In s&c a tense en"ironment. Ce"ending on the identit& and es"eciall& the location of these targets. it is =&st possi!le t at %osco# an'Oor C ina mig t mista.* and if for some reason Mosco# denied an& res"onsibilit& for nuclear la/it&6 %he correct attribution of that nuclear material to a "articular countr& might not be a case of science fiction gi3en the obser3ation b& Michael Ma& et al.) 2merican "ressure on that "art of the #orld #ould almost certainl& raise alarms in Mosco# that might reBuire a degree of ad3anced consultation from Dashington that the latter found itself unable or un#illing to "ro3ide. and 2merican officials refused to belie3e that a terrorist grou" #as full& res"onsible (or res"onsible at all1 sus"icion #o&l' s ift imme'iately to state possessors 2 9&ling o&t Western ally co&ntries li5e the #ould be left #ith a 3er& short list consisting of North Korea.es game of n&clear Cl&e'oI In "articular. authorities in Dashington increase if the 9nited !tates #as alread& in3ol3ed in some sort of limited armed conflict #ith Russia and-or China. the materials used and. the chances of this occurring #ould onl& seem to 9nited Kingdom and France. for some reason.M.M. "erha"s Iran if its "rogram continues. against t e lea'ers ip of t e terrorist gro&p an'Oor states seen to s&pport t at gro&p. For e/am"le. although it must be admitted that an& "reem"tion #ould "robabl& still meet #ith a de3astating res"onse. For e/am"le. #hen careful "lanning runs u" against the friction of realit&. not least because the& seem unli5el& to be fingered as the most ob3ious state s"onsors or encouragers of terrorist grou"s. For e/am"le. %here is also the Buestion of ho# other nuclear-armed states respon' to t e act of n&clear terrorism on anot er mem!er of t at special cl&!. ho# might the 9nited !tates react if it #as thought or disco3ered that the fissile material used in the act of nuclear terrorism had come from Russian stoc5s. or decided to threaten the use of. identifiable and collectable. and "otentiall& as an infringement on their s"heres of influence an' e"en on t eir so"ereignty. 2s "art of its initial res"onse to the act of nuclear terrorism (as discussed earlier1 Dashington might decide to order a significant con"entional Gor n&clear3 retaliatory or 'isarming attac. if the act of nuclear terrorism occurred against a bac5dro" of e/isting tension in Dashington’s relations #ith Russia and-or China / an' at a time # en t reats a' alrea'y !een tra'e' !et#een t ese ma=or po#ers/ #o&l' officials an' political lea'ers not !e tempte' to ass&me t e #orstI >f course. %he& #ould seem far too res"onsible to be in3ol3ed in su""orting that sort of terrorist beha3ior that could Fust as easil& threaten them as #ell. . "erha"s in connection #ith #hat 2llison claims is the LChechen insurgents’ c long-standing interest in all things nuclear. its radioacti3it& ma5es it detectable. and if Dashington felt that Mosco# or 7eiFing #ere "lacing a curiousl& modest le3el of "ressure on them. >ne far-fetched but "erha"s not im"ossible scenario might stem from a Fudgment in Dashington that some of the main aiders and abetters of the terrorist action resided some#here such as Chechn&a. in the noise and confusion during the immediate aftermath of the terrorist nuclear attac5. (neither Lfor us or against usM1 might it also sus"ect that the& secretl& #ere in cahoots #ith the grou".. Dashington found the res"onses of Russia and China dee"l& under#helming.enly rea' t is as a sign of *2(2 intentions to &se force Gan' possi!ly n&clear force3 against t em2 In t at sit&ation/ t e temptations to preempt s&c actions mig t gro#.Fust ho# Russia and-or China could "lausibl& be brought into the "icture. on its o#n soil might also raise the "ossibilit& of an un#anted (and nuclear aided3 confrontation #it 9&ssia an'Oor C ina. both Russia and China #ould e/tend immediate s&m"ath& and su""ort to Dashington and #ould #or5 alongside the 9nited !tates in the !ecurit& Council. if the act of nuclear terrorism came as a complete s&rprise. If the terrorist grou" had some connections to grou"s in Russia and China. and "ossibl& Pa5istan2 B&t at # at stage #o&l' 9&ssia an' C ina !e 'efinitely r&le' o&t in t is ig sta. 7ut there is Fust a chance. most im"ortant c some indication of #here the nuclear material came from. #hat #ould ha""en if the 9nited !tates #ished to discuss its right to retaliate against grou"s based in their territor&6 If. nuclear #ea"ons. or e/isted in areas of the #orld o3er #hich Russia and China held s#a&. do suggest themsel3es. and a #ealth of information can be obtained from its anal&sisJ the efficienc& of the e/"losion. albeit a slim one. that #hile the debris resulting from a nuclear e/"losion #ould be Ls"read o3er a #ide area in tin& fragments. !ome "ossibilities. %he re3erse might #ell a""l& tooJ should a nuclear terrorist attac5 occur in Russia or China during a "eriod of heightened tension or e3en limited conflict #ith the 9nited !tates.!. could Mosco# and 7eiFing resist the "ressures that might rise domesticall& to consider the 9nited !tates as a "ossible "er"etrator or encourager of the attac56 Dashington’s early response to a terrorist n&clear attac. It could reasonabl& be e/"ected that follo#ing a nuclear terrorist attac5 on the 9nited !tates. #here the su""ort of Russia and-or China is less automatic in some cases than in others. #hat conclusions might it then dra# about their cul"abilit&6 If Dashington decided to use.0 2lternati3el&. as unli5el& as these de3elo"ments ma& seem at the "resent time. Russia and-or China might inter"ret such action as being far too close for their comfort. the 9. increasing (again "erha"s e3er so slightl&1 t e c ances of a ma=or e@c ange. ho#e3er remote.

for e/am"le. the central dissuader of the use of nuclear #ea"ons b& states has been the threat of nuclear retaliation. and indeed the leading state in the international s&stem. #hich seems Buite "lausible. and "erha"s e3en offensi3e to contem"late.in'I + e p rase A o# 'are t ey tell &s # at to 'oB imme'iately springs to min'2 (ome mig t e"en go so far as to interpret t is concern as a tacit form of sympat y or s&pport for t e terrorists2 + is mig t not elp t e c ances of n&clear restraint2 . that #hile the act of nuclear terrorism #as es"eciall& heinous and demanded a strong res"onse. #hich "ossesses an arsenal of thousands of nuclear #arheads and that has been one of the t#o most im"ortant trustees of the non-use taboo./ o# #o&l' t e attac. but an entirel& different thing for a state actor. If Russia and China felt sufficientl& strongl& about that "ros"ect. 9&ssia. #hat o"tions #ould Dashington ha3e to communicate that dis"leasure6 If China had been the 3ictim of the nuclear terrorism and seemed li5el& to retaliate in 5ind. including outside Russia’s traditional s"here of influence6 2nd if not. %he& might surmise. is subFected to an attac5 of nuclear terrorism2 In response/ %osco# places its n&clear forces "ery "isi!ly on a ig er state of alert an' 'eclares t at it is consi'ering t e &se of n&clear retaliation against t e gro&p an' any of its state s&pporters2 Ho# #o&l' Was ington "ie# s&c a possi!ilityI Dould it reall& be 5een to su""ort Russia’s use of nuclear #ea"ons.e' co&ntry respon' to press&re from ot er ma=or n&clear po#ers not to respon' in . there is then the Buestion of #hat o"tions #ould lie o"en to them to dissuade the 9nited !tates from such actionJ and as has been seen o3er the last se3eral decades. It #ould be one thing for a non-state actor to ha3e bro5en the nuclear use taboo. it ma& be informati3e to re3erse the tables. #ould the 9nited !tates and Russia be ha""& to sit bac5 and let this occur6 In t e c arge' atmosp ere imme'iately after a n&clear terrorist attac. the res"onse sim"l& had to remain belo# the nuclear threshold. If some readers find this sim"l& too fanciful.the res"onses of Russia and China #ould be crucial to the chances of a3oiding a more serio&s n&clear e@c ange. to do so.

"articularl& #here the militar& is in3ol3ed. of American egemony cataly6es terrorism Fel6en!erg an' Gray 11 (2l3in !. Fel=enberg W 4e/turer at the 9ni3ersit& of Penn&sl3ania and Gale 9ni3ersit&. E3idence is strong that :ene=uela is "ro3iding sanctuar& for @e=bollah terrorists in !outh 2merica. Candidate in International 2ffairs at the George Dashington 9ni3ersit&. 4ecturer W 9ni3ersit& of Penns&l3ania and Gale 9ni3ersit& and 2le/ander 7.Impact – +errorism – 1A9 Lac. Iran has also. %he& had better thin5 againJ Dorld "olitics. .Ph.com-articles-)I+0I*-ne#isolationism-al3in-s-fel=enberg1 !M Messrs. #ould be a good thing. 0-E. the original Monroe Coctrine be damned. Gra& -.M Iran sBuats beside the !trait of @ormu=. li5e nature. %he alliance of these t#o anti-2merican and increasingl& menacing states could "ose a threat to the 9nited !tates of a 5ind that #ould ma5e us nostalgic for the Cuban Missile Crisis. in s"ite of t#o &ears of >bama Lengagement. e/tended its militar& coo"eration #ith @ugo ChA3e=’s authoritarian regime.C.nationalre3ie#. L%he Ne# IsolationismM. through #hich much of the #orld’s energ& su""l& tra3els. %he National Re3ie#. htt"J--###. is hardl& "rone to res"ect 3acuums. Fran5 and Paul and their su""orters ha3e ta5en it into their minds that a reduced 2merican "resence in #orld affairs. Iran and :ene=uela remain as bellicose and destabili=ing as e3er.

.

and the creation of the !outh 2merican Cefence Council (!CC1 under its S aus"ices.S and their o#n dis"ute for sub-regional hegemon& in !outh 2merica.. has been a no3elt& to !outh 2merican "ractices of multilateral coo"eration.-led negotiations forS the creation of a free trade area in the hemis"here.!.Main= Pa"ers on International and Euro"ean Politics (MPIEP1 Pa"er No..!.!.. but also the role of the >2! in the region .!. 2ndrea Ribeiro @offmann is 4ecturer at the Dill& 7randt !chool of Public Polic&. . %he inclusion of securit& inS 9N2!9R’s obFecti3es.S #hich included the coo"eration on infrastructure and "olitical matters. #as a main dri3ing forceS in the 7ra=ilian foreign "olic&. .FF1 Dhile China’s efforts "rimaril& follo# an economic rationale. htt"J--international. (*.S 9N2!9R is therefore another e/am"le in #hich balancing the 9."olitics.’s historical inVuence in 4atin 2merica. and culminated #ithS the creation of the Communit& of !outh 2merican Countries (C2!21 in )**. Ces"ite a range of disagreements bet#een 7ra=il and :ene=uela. chose to su""ort S Great 7ritain and N2%> o3er 2rgentina during the Fal5lands Dar in 0?X). and included ne# elements such asS coo"eration in securit& and defense (7riceno )*0*1. 9ni3ersit& of Erfurt. Dolfgang Muno is :isiting Professor of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Erfurt. and also. @egemon&J %heoretical ReVections on !hifting Po#er Patterns and Em"irical E3idence from 4atin 2mericaM.S Part of this "rocess #as also the ra""rochement bet#een %ercos&r and the 2ndean Communit&S (CAN1 "romoted b& the go3ernment of President Itamar Franco in 0??E. the Interamerican %reat& of Reci"rocal 2ssistance (%I2R1 #as discredited after the 9. >ne of the reasons attributed to the creationS of the !outh 2merican Common Mar5et (Mercosur1 is the 7ra=ilian attem"t to !alance t e *2(2K economic egemony in !outh 2merica. C2!2 #asS renamed as 9nion of !outh 2merican Nations (9N2!9R1. both countries share theS discontentment #ith 9. Its collecti3e defense com"onent. the Free %rade 2rea of the 2mericas (F%221. #ith S its militari=ed a""roach to the narcotrafTc conVicts in Colombia. In )**(.uni-main=.de-files-)*0)-0*-m"ie"*. and !outh 2mericanS countries.A+F Alliance DA – .-)*0)..AC +&rn-*( egemony in Latin America em!ol'ens regional organi6ations Bran' et al 1. %hese de3elo"ments ha3e not onl& affected the bilateral relations bet#een the 9. 7ra=il’s acti3ities in regional S institutional matters ta5e a slightl& different sha"e. !usan McE#en-Fial is 4ecturer at the Ce"artment of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Main=. and to change the terms of the 9. 2le/ander 7rand is 4ecturer and Post-Coc Researcher at the Ce"artment of Political !cience at the 9ni3ersit& of Main=. in "articular. and "racticall& dead S after Me/ico renounced it in )**) (Ribeiro-@offmann-@er= )*0*1. %he interregionalS coo"eration "roFect e3ol3ed from a mere free trade agreement to#ards a broader initiati3e. L7RICs and 9."df.!.!.

President ChA3e=8s leadershi" has also sailed on the tail #inds of high energ& "rices. L%he !hifting 4andsca"e of 4atin 2merican Regionalism. Fust a fe# &ears ago there #ere signs that 2472. #as concei3ed. #hich has staunch follo#ers. 7ut 2472 began losing much of its energ&. @is 3ocal defense of "o"ulism."df. chiefl& because of mounting "roblems in :ene=uela. )-. %ashma1 2J 7eatrice Rangel. I+-+0. 2fter 0E . htt"J--###. but also considerable disunit& on 5e& economic and "olitical Buestions. !ome anal&sts ha3e s"eculated that "erha"s Ecuadorean "resident Rafael Correa might be in a "osition to assume 24728s leadershi" mantle. ChA3e= has contributed and gi3en sha"e to a number of regional organi=ations in recent &ears such as 9N2!9R and CE42C. redefined 4atin 2merican "olitical geogra"h&."df.ce"r. :ene=uela is the unmista5able leaderN other members include Cuba. %o be sure. and has been mainl& financed.net-documents-CEPRQNe#s-4220E*)*.ic. President of the Inter-2merican Cialogue. )-. ProBuest.M Current @istor&. %ashma1 2J Michael !hifter. @e has long modeled himself after his idol !im.$ ALBA as !een ero'ing for years --. the e/ce"tion ma& be Petrocaribe. %o some degree. 3isibilit&. "resident of the Inter-2merican Cialogue. since coming to "o#er in 0???. President ChA3e= has been one of the defining "olitical leaders in 4atin 2merica8s )0st centur&.M Inter-2merican Cialogue’s 4atin 2merica 2d3isor. :olume 000. %hat 9! "resident George D. Februar& )*0). %he result is a notabl& fragmented "olitical landsca"e. has been intent on fostering a cohesi3e anti-9. and se3eral Caribbean nations.. 2472..ce"r. and those leaders #ho ha3e a mar5et-oriented 3ision of economics. Dithout ChA3e=. a bloc of ideologicall& li5e-minded go3ernments. It sought to offer a radical alternati3e to the 9!bac5ed F%22 and to "romote solidarit& among a coalition of nations that stand u" to Dashington. %o be sure. ChA3e= #as uniBuel& able to get 2472 off the ground because of his mone& and enormous ambitions. "resident of the Inter-2merican CialogueJ $!ince its ince"tion. %ashma1 %@E 2N%I-EMPIRE C497 2s a clear measure of ho# s#iftl& the region8s institutional landsca"e has been transformed. Nicaragua.n 7ol 3ar and. has been largel& dri3en and financed b& ChA3e=.e' off t e 'ecline ( ifter/ 1. (Michael. 7ut none of the leaders of 2472 nations ha3e President ChA3e=8s "olitical a""eal or :ene=uela8s oil income.-0E. bloc of 4atin 2merican go3ernments.AC C a"e6Cs passing #as t e 'eat .). had considerable momentum. 2dFunct Professor of 4atin 2merican !tudies at Georgeto#n 9ni3ersit&8s !chool of Foreign !er3ice. onl& hel"ed fuel the ChA3e=-led coalition.A+F Alliance DA – ALBA – . #hich allo#ed him to u"hold a #holl& subsidi=ed domestic econom& and e/tend subsidies to other 4atin 2merican nations.. Correa lac5s ChA3e=8s resources and also a""ears content to "er"etuate himself in "o#er in his o#n countr&. 2rgentina. htt"J--###. "g. es"eciall& in Central 2merica and the Caribbean. Ecuador. but also in other 2472 member states (for e/am"le. 2472. LDho Dould %a5e @ugo ChA3e=8s Place at 24726. but has failed to construct the region-#ide solidarit& that he en3isioned. establishing a clear di3ide bet#een his standing.!. @onduras #as also an 2472 member before that countr&8s 'une )**? militar& cou". 7oli3ia. but at the same time he has been a "olari=ing figure #ho has hel"ed accentuate di3isions among 4atin 2merican and Caribbean countries. LDho Dould %a5e @ugo ChA3e=8s Place at 24726. and the IraB Dar #as so uni3ersall& o""osed. through #hich ChA3e= has "ro3ided discounted oil to a collection of "oor countries. but has since #ithdra#n from the bloc. in )**I.nell of ALBA 9angel/ 14 (7eatrice.-0E. launched in )**. %hus ALBA mig t #ell !ecome a memory sooner rat er t an later2$ E"en if ALBA 'oesnCt fall apart/ itCs no# ineffecti"e ( ifter/ 14 (Michael. b& ChA3e=.net-documents-CEPRQNe#s-4220E*)*. #here an acrimonious atmos"here "re3ailed. along #ith his charisma and "ersonal magnetism. 2472 #ill not disa""ear but #ill "robabl& lose some of its force . member of the 2d3isor board and director of 2M42 Consulting in Miami 7eachJ$ It seems Buite unli5el& that 2472 #ill transcend its founding figure. @e has managed to bring in a handful of go3ernments. mar5ed b& more regional grou"ings. a notabl& more defiant bloc of countries.C a"e6Cs 'istractions . 7oli3ia1. #ith the most generous subsid& going to Cuba. 7ush #as so disli5ed in the region.M Inter-2merican Cialogue’s 4atin 2merica 2d3isor. 7ut li5e other 2472 leaders. member of the 2d3isor board and director of 2M42 Consulting in Miami 7each. 2472 ma& ha3e reached its =enith at a !ummit of the 2mericas gathering in Mar del Plata. and stridenc&. %he organi=ation seemed "oised to e/"and in a region that offered fertile ground for more leftist reci"es to social and economic "roblems. Issue (.

&ears in office. as has Colombia8s ra""rochement #ith :ene=uela. 7ra=il8s rise . !uch #ea5nesses ha3e significantl& undercut his abilit& to "la& a more energetic regional role. and in )*0*. a "ro"osed alternati3e to traditional multilateral lending institutions.has mitigated ChA3e=8s more disru"ti3e im"act. finall&. including a 3er& bad econom&. his other main antagonist. and. the cancer diagnosis. %he& ha3e also made it e3en more difficult to underta5e some of ChA3e=8s more granthose schemes. a shar"l& deteriorating securit& situation. . Rousseff . ChA3e= began to confront more serious challenges. 2t the same time. es"eciall&. such as the 7an5 of the !outh. In )**? ChA3e= lost his fa3orite foil in George 7ush. 9ribe.under 4ula and no#.

in the case of 4ebanon against Israel. $%hat democracies are in general. it o""osed the #ar but #ent along #ith its larger confreres #hen the& o"ted to attac5. Dith declining attention being "aid to the #ars in 2fghanistan and IraB. but once aroused $a democrac& . #hich is a trade agreement based on coo"eration rather than com"etition. #as also democratic #ithin the confines of its "eculiar confessional di3ision of "o#er. .AC ALBA 'estroys 'emocracy --. in dealing #ith all 5inds of states. 2merica treated 'a"an and that "art of German& that it occu"ied #ith e/traordinar& generosit&.$ 7& this he meant the conclusion of man8s Buest for the right social order. after much "rocrastination.$ ()1 Kennan8s 3ie# #as strongl& influenced b& the "olic& of $unconditional surrender$ "ursued in Dorld Dar II. neoconser3ati3es and neoliberals #ant to turn our attention to rolling bac5 social and economic ad3ances in 4atin 2merica. Francis Fu5u&ama argued that democrac&8s e/tension #as leading to $the end of histor&. )*00.M 'ul 00. %ashma1 9! 4atin 2mericanist Cold Darriors and their far-right allies in the region 5ic5ed off a "ro"aganda cam"aign in Ma& to influence Congress and 9! citi=ens against :ene=uela and fello# 2472 (7oli3arian 2lliance for the Peo"les of >ur 2mericas1 countries. htt"J--###. 2nd to forgi3e. (. In a famous article. %o reduce the data to a form that is Buantitati3el& measurable. >nl& a fe# decades ago. .$ (01 Fu5u&ama8s "hrase #as intentionall& "ro3ocati3e. but their challenges ha3e onl& ser3ed as em"irical tests that ha3e confirmed its robustness. o"inion "iece in the Miami @erald "enned b& Reagan administration chief "ro"agandist >tto Reich and continued #ith a Congressional briefing that he moderated on Ma& )+. . . but he also meant the $diminution of the li5elihood of large-scale conflict bet#een states. For e/am"le. %he trouble #ith such studies. ho#e3er. fights in anger . 4ebanon did little fighting and soon sued for "eace. e3en tongue-in-chee5.*.and "erforce of nuclear "eace -. . #as a reluctant "art& to the fight. 7oli3ia.htm %he greatest im"etus for #orld "eace -.is a much more contro3ersial "ro"osition than 8merel&8 that democracies are "eaceful in their dealings #ith each other. it is easier to . 1 W Resident !cholar at 2merican Enter"rise Institute 'oshua. Ma& )). is that the& rarel& e/amine the Buestion of #ho started or caused a #ar. E3en so.org-s&llabi-mura3chi5.ey to sol"e for e@tinction %&ra"c i. %he "olitical scientist 7ruce Russett offers a different challenge to the notion that democracies are more "eaceful. he said. htt"J--3ene=uelanal&sis. Cemocracies are not onl& slo# to anger but also Buic5 to com"romise. such as the negotiated settlements 2merica sought in Korea and :ietnam "ro3ed him #rong. .M +-E-00. 7ut the declaration #as "urel& formalJ no fighting ensued bet#een England and Finland. more "eaceful than are authoritarian or other nondemocraticall& constituted states . %he strongest e/ce"tion I can thin5 of is the #ar bet#een the nascent state of Israel and the 2rabs in 0?. !urel& this is an e/ce"tion that "ro3es the rule.$ he sa&s. Cemocracies.$ (E1 !ome of those #ho find enthusiasm for democrac& off-"utting ha3e challenged this "ro"osition. . LRight-Ding 9nleashes Cam"aign 2gainst Cemocrac& in 4atin 2merica.is the s"read of democrac&.1 In fact. Lhas not onl& managed to sur3i3e as a retrograde mo3ement in a moderni=ing hemis"here. (I1 Russett cites his o#n and other statistical e/"lorations #hich sho# that #hile democracies rarel& fight one another the& often fight against others. Dithin the councils of the 2rab 4eague. but is no# acti"ely e@porting its s&!"ersi"e mo'el to neig !oring co&ntries .A+F Alliance DA – ALBA – Democracy +&rn – . %hus.it res&lts in free elections t at 'issol"e into a&t oritarian regimes --. Israel #as an embr&onic democrac& and 4ebanon.X. and one for #hich there is little s&stematic e3idence. Indeed the "ro"osition that democracies do not go to #ar #ith one another has been described b& one "olitical scientist as being $as close as an&thing #e ha3e to an em"irical la# in international relations. as in the case of England against Finland.com-anal&sis-+). 7ut subseBuent e/"erience. one of the 2rab belligerents. %he cam"aign began #ith a !unda&.M @e claimed that ALBA. Neither "oint has gone unchallenged.M Democracy is . 7uchanan ha3e both instanced democratic England8s declaration of #ar against democratic Finland during Dorld Dar II. democracies nominall& #ent to #ar against democracies #hen the& #ere dragged into conflicts b& authoritarian allies. @is "remise in the Miami @erald articleJ L Cictatorshi"s are being established in :ene=uela.sprea'ing no# 5a&fman/ 11 (Chuc5. to the bitter end. the academic Paul Gottfried and the columnist-turned-"olitician Patric5 '. In recent &ears a burgeoning literature has discussed the "eacefulness of democracies. . 4ebanon. Ecuador and Nicaragua b& an alliance of self-a3o#ed ^)0st-centur& socialist’ leaders #ho utili=e free elections to reach "o#er and then set about destro&ing the 3er& institutions of democrac& that "ut them there. national coordinator of the 2lliance for Global 'ustice.n"ec-#eb. ho#e3er. as distinguished an obser3er of international relations as George Kennan made a claim Buite contrar& to the first of these assertions. #ere slo# to anger. LCemocrac& and nuclear "eace. . England did accede to the "ressure of its !o3iet all& to declare #ar against Finland #hich #as allied #ith German&. but he #as "ointing to t#o do#n-to-earth historical obser3ationsJ that democracies are more "eaceful than other 5inds of go3ernment and that the #orld is gro#ing more democratic. Not#ithstanding the insistence on unconditional surrender. and subseBuent boo5.

. %he attitude of li3e-and-let-li3e cannot be turned on and off li5e a s"igot. "olic&1. or don8t go at all. . . rather than b& democrati=ation. during the Cold Dar. %hese statistics also . some +). %o be sure. ma& not hold in the contem"orar& #orld. from the !o3iet game board. !addam @ussein8s decision to s#allo# Ku#ait #as "robabl& encouraged b& the inference he must ha3e ta5en from the statements and actions of 2merican officials that Dashington #ould offer no forceful resistance.$ #hich means roughl&J #hat did the& ho"e to get out of it6 In the fe# cases in recent times in #hich #ars #ere initiated b& democracies. calling do#n on themsel3es all the miseries of #ar. Immanuel Kant #as the first to obser3e. difficulties if the democratic "rocess had de3elo"ed normall& in our countr&. %o do this. the "acific inclination of democracies. 7ut this is too "at. the& im"licitl& ac5no#ledge that the relationshi" of democrati=ation and "eacefulness ma& change o3er historical "eriods. democracies ha3e turned to #ar in the face of "ro3ocation. $De #ould ha3e been able to a3oid man& . he turned the !o3iet 9nion a#a& from its historic course. !o the choice $don8t go at all$ (001 is rarel& realistic in the contem"orar& #orld. rarel& on the offensi3e. ho#e3er go3erned. such e/am"les abound. Mansfield and 'ac5 !n&der. had it reali=ed that England #ould fight to 3indicate 7elgian neutralit& and to su""ort France. but the struggle as a #hole #as dri3en one-sidedl&. %he& note that $in ZsomeR recent cases. 2merica "ulled out. often ha3e aimed at conBuest or subFugation. Nations that embrace this ethos in the conduct of their domestic affairs are naturall& more "redis"osed to embrace it in their dealings #ith other nations. democrac& is the #illingness to resol3e ci3il dis"utes #ithout recourse to 3iolence. the 9nited !tates ma& ha3e initiated some s5irmishes (although in fact it rarel& did1.$