. Uniqueness: Increased economic outreach from China to the Americas now – designed to offset US influence Knowland 6-10 Don Knowland

, “China’s president visits Mexico and Central America seeking
economic ties,” World Socialist Web Site, 6/10/ http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2013/06/10/xime-j10.html?view=print China’s new president, Xi Jinping, traveled to Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica and then Mexico last week, on the eve of his weekend meeting in California with US President Barack Obama. Xi’s trip comes just a month after Obama’s own visit in early May to Mexico and to Central America. Xi arrived in Trinidad just as US Vice President Joe Biden finished a six-day trip to Colombia, Trinidad and Brazil aimed at shoring up US economic interests in the region. Xi’s trip is part of a stiffening response by China to US attempts to undercut Chinese efforts to assure itself worldwide access to critical mineral resources, and to encircle China under the guise of its “pivot to Asia” policy. There the US has stoked Japan, the Philippines and
Vietnam into increasingly abrasive relations with China over competing claims to various islands in the oil and gas-rich East China and South China Seas. “China wants to remind the US that just as the US has influence in regions close to China, China too has

2013,

rising influence

in the Americas ,” according to Matt Ferchen, a scholar at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy in Beijing. Past Chinese presidents were deferential to the US, making reference to Latin America as “Washington’s backyard,” as US Secretary of State John Kerry himself recently called it in testimony in April before the US Congress. But Xi’s Latin America trip, coming early in his presidency, shows “little concern for American reaction ,” Evan Ellis, a professor at the National Defense University in Washington, told Bloomberg News. China had already invested heavily in South America in recent years, striking major trade deals with the region’s governments. Beginning in 2009, it supplanted the US as the number one trading partner of Brazil, Latin America’s foremost economy, as well as its number one source of foreign direc t investment. In the decade spanning 2000 to 2010, trade between China and Latin America as a whole increased 1,500 percent . By 2010, it had risen to $261.2 billion, gaining steadily on US-Latin American trade, which amounted to $351 billion last year.
Between 2002 and 2011, Chinese foreign direct investment in the region rose 100-fold from $22.6 million to $22.7 billion. The areas where US capitalism has retained clear dominance, Mexico

and Central America, were the focus of Xi’s trip.

Valencia 6/24 Robert Valencia, New York-based political analyst and a contributing writer for Global
Voices, “US and China: The Fight for Latin America,” World Policy Blog, 6/24/2013, http://www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2013/06/24/us-and-china-fight-latin-america China has the upper hand with the Latin American leftist countries in terms of infrastructure and technology. In 2009, Chinese telephone manufacturer ZTE played an instrumental role in assembling the first mobile phone in Venezuela known as “El Vergatario” (Venezuela slang for optimal). Former President Hugo Chávez introduced this new phone to low-income families making it the world’s cheapest phone ($6.99 for a handset). Additionally, China landed rail construction projects in Argentina and Venezuela and has become a major buyer of farm products and metal in South America. Between 2011 and 2012, China purchased nearly 58.02
million tons of soy from Argentina, up from 52 million in 2011 and 2010.

Chinese expansion now pushes out US influence – but competition for engagement is zero-sum – plan edges China out Watson ‘9 Cynthia A. Watson, Professor of Strategy at National War College, “U.S. Responses to
China’s Growing Interests in Latin America: Dawning Recognition of a Changing Hemisphere,” Enter the Dragon? China’s Presence in Latin America, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 2009, http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/EnterDragonFinal.pdf

At either terminus. For cultural and geographic reasons. With U. probably more than the PRC bargained for when it began engaging more with Latin America over the past decade. Malaysian and Norwegian firms will use the rig to extract Cuban oil. Beijing’s increased involvement in Latin America reflects the unanticipated consequence of getting what the West hoped for from China. logistics operations and distribution plants.ascfusa. Influence is zero-sum – US economic engagement forces China out Dowd ’12 Alan W. As so often appears true in the international system. The JFQ study reveals just how deep and wide Beijing is spreading its financial influence in Latin . New offshore discoveries will soon catapult Brazil into a top-five global oil producer. ASCF Senior Fellow. probably the old tale of the tortoise and hare applies here.9 million barrels per day by 2020.org/content_pages/view/crisisinamericas Focused on military operations in the Middle East. public conferences and assessments. particularly in the newly globalized world. diplomatic. and trade prowess for China as it has reached beyond the isolationism of the Cultural Revolution. With some 38 billion barrels of recoverable oil off its coast. China is planning a massive “dry canal” to link the country’s Pacific and Atlantic coasts by rail.Beijing probably might not have increased its role in Latin America had the Middle East not been a major distraction for Washington over the past five and a half years. is having consequences for U. In Costa Rica. Washington seems likely to worry about the rock star phenomenon. stable set of ties. and trying to salvage a peace of some sort without nuclear weapons in the Middle East. interests in other parts of the world.” American Security Council. leading to trade conflicts. however. as the Washington Times reports. Russian.S. Plus. Eyeing energy resources to keep its economy humming. a Chinese-built oil rig arrived in Cuba to begin drilling in Cuba’s swath of the Gulf of Mexico. “Crisis in the America's. U. China is engaged in a flurry of investing and spending in Latin America. highly public ties between itself and Latin American leaders. Reuters reports that Spanish. In mid-January. particularly as the nation faces increased frustration with the reality of the Middle East. For now. and other warnings alerting the United States to China having discovered Latin America. energy and real-estate deals with Brazil. there will be Chinese assembly facilities. policymakers have neglected a growing challenge right here in the Western Hemisphere: the expanding influence and reach of China. it seems highly likely that Beijing will be able to maintain the level of involvement in the region it already has. and administrator. protectionism. But the distance between Latin America’s experiences and those of China are even vaster. nuclear threats in Iran and North Korea. has served as an adjunct professor and university lecturer. The United States and China claim that each is serious about adopting the economic philosophy that undergirds capitalism: economic growth is a net benefit for all.24-billion upgrade of the country’s oil refinery. Indeed. http://www. rather than attempting to manage the emergence of another state becoming a long-term partner with its Latin American neighbors. Washington’s ability to focus equally on all areas of the world is not possible. If true. Sagamore Institute and Fraser Institute. is significant. rather than relegating it to the position of secondary or tertiary thought that assumes absolute U. Washington must make a more concerted effort to act as a genuine partner with the region. 2012. where China’s biggest gain will be accomplished over a long time of getting to know the region. Brazil expects to pump 4. China. China is funding a $1. and the United States benefit from the greater Chinese engagement in this region because it creates competition. The risks of arousing realpolitik in the United States. researcher and writer at leading think tanks. This was bound to create more economic. Washington has wanted Beijing to modernize its economy.S. Dowd. But. ties have probably always been unrealistic and frankly ahistorical. and China has used generous loans to position itself as the prime beneficiary of Brazilian oil. Pure economic theory. China is focusing on onshore oil extraction in Cuba. there will be Chinese ports. Expectations of the strength of Latin America–U.S. Beijing’s best outcome from its current balance of involvement in the area is probably going to be the long-term development of trust and ties over several decades with the leaders of this region. In many ways. the two parts of the world actually have a number of fundamental differences. rather than showing up repeatedly in the ‘rock star’ role which is too soon and too rash for a long-term. A study in Joint Force Quarterly (JFQ) adds that Beijing plunked down $3. ranging from religion to ethnic homogeneity to historical roles in the world.S. the ties between the United States and Latin America ought to be stronger than those between China and the Latins. without Washington raising too great a ruckus.1 billion for a slice of Brazil’s vast offshore oil fields. and on the Pacific side. and all-too-often a zero sum view based on the international relations theory of realpolitik: what’s good for my adversary must be bad for me. leadership. China came to the rescue of Brazil’s main oil company when it sought financing for its massive drilling plans. chemical. and the global threat of terrorism. rather than immediately creating crucial. always runs up against political philosophies . To accelerate its involvement would risk the relatively strong relations with Washington at a time when other trade problems and overall concerns about China’s growing power are already rising in the United States. China’s state-run oil and banking giants have inked technology-transfer. as the Times details. interests directed elsewhere.S. backing infrastructure and telecommunications improvements. bankrolling an $83-million soccer stadium. In Colombia. It appears unlikely that Beijing will seriously accelerate its involvement in the region because of the number of Congressional hearings. and pouring millions into a new police academy. in between. including the Hudson Institute. there will be dedicated berths to ship Colombian coal outbound to China. not a zero sum game. congressional aide. At the same time. pouring $10 billion into the project. the inability of Washington to consider anything beyond the concerns about terrorism spreading around the world. Latin America.

pages 363-381. The JFQ study adds that China has “an important and growing presence in the region’s military institutions. $1 billion for Ecuadoran oil. A good model to follow might be what’s happening in China’s backyard. and training infrastructures that support those products. China is developing trade and military ties in America’s neighborhood. China is probing Latin America and sending a message that just as Washington has trade and military ties in China’s neighborhood. was editor of American Foreign Policy Interests. Cuba. politically and militarily. if the Venezuelan leader’s support for the Castro brothers’ dictatorship in Cuba were not bad enough. The Joint Forces Command noted in 2008 that China has “a deep respect for U. Volume 32. and instead must reengage in its own neighborhood economically.” Most Latin American nations. diplomacy. In addition. all of this needs to be part of a revived Monroe Doctrine. That means no more allowing trade deals—and the partners counting on them—to languish. what it was true in the 19th and 20th centuries must remain tru true in the 21st: There is room for only one great power in the Western Hemisphere. To be sure. Ecuador. Recall that in China. Ansari Africa Center at the Atlantic Council. Investment fuels development. $10 billion to help Argentina modernize its rail system. his increasing dalliances with the Islamic Republic of Iran and assorted Middle Eastern rogues have raised further hackles. with the secondary consequence being that those purchasers will become more reliant on the associated Chinese logistics. one wonders how long that reservoir of respect will last.000 barrels per day to one million barrels per day. maintenance. Bolivia. “send officers to professional military education courses in the PRC. Given that Venezuela pumps an average of 1. Issue 6. Plans for a hemispheric free trade zone have faltered and foundered. technology and infrastructure spheres. As Reagan counseled during the Cold War.S. Jamaica. Chile and Venezuela. Beijing has begun to sell “sophisticated hardware…such as radars and K-8 and MA-60 aircraft. Focusing on Chinese encroachment in the Americas. this “Monroe Doctrine 2. while six Western Hemisphere ambassadorial posts (Uruguay. $3. But there’s more at work here than China’s thirst for oil. Reengagement means reversing plans to slash defense spending. Indeed. Nicaragua and Barbados) remain empty. but its links with regimes like Hugo Cha´vez’s with its ambitions to export its ‘‘Bolivarian Revolution’’ and build a broad anti– United States coalition in the hemisphere65 certainly do not put American policymakers and analysts at ease. the ends always justify the means in Beijing.S. In short. The trade-expansion agreements with Panama and Colombia were left in limbo for years. First. 2010. And that makes all the difference when it comes to foreign and defense policy.” American Foreign Policy Interests: The Journal of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy. the State Department position focused on the Western Hemisphere has been staffed by an interim for nearly a year.—or about 11 percent of net oil imports—the results would be devastating for the U. much of this is a function of China’s desire to secure oil markets. Finally. But China’s riches come with strings. In short. an estimated 3-5 million people are rotting away in laogai slave-labor camps. trade.2010. freedom of speech and religion and assembly do not exist. and the southern flank of the United States is exposed to a range of new security challenges. democracy activists are rounded up and imprisoned. Reengagement also means revitalizing security ties. “China's Strategic Penetration of Latin America: What It Means for U. Perhaps it’s time to do the same in Latin America.1 billion to purchase Argentina’s petroleum company outright. it makes sense to bring these Latin American partners on the Pacific Rim into the alliance of alliances that is already stabilizing the Asia-Pacific region. including Mexico. and internal security forces are given shoot-to-kill orders in dealing with unarmed citizens.S. but as reason “to launch its harshest crackdown on dissent in at least a decade. El Salvador.S. ominously. must stop taking the Western Hemisphere for granted. We should remember that many Latin American countries—from Mexico and Panama to Colombia and Chile—border the Pacific. before President Obama finally signed them into law in 2011. Venezuela. The Wall Street Journal reports that due to political wrangling in Washington. To deter China and prevent an accidental war. Washington needs to relearn an obvious truth—that China’s rulers do not share America’s values—and needs to shape and conduct its China policy in that context. many of them “guilty” of political dissent or religious activity. Like a global chess match. But with the United States in the midst of massive military retrenchment. primacy in the region—a challenge that must be answered. director of the Michael S.S. Given Beijing’s actions. For instance.5 million barrels of oil per day for the U.1080/10803920. the U.” In Ecuador.S. Venezuela and Bolivia. Reengagement means reviving U. aid or training to Ecuador.3-billion commitment to develop Venezuelan oil reserves. Peter Pham. This is a direct challenge to U. “There is no true international security without respect for human rights. It’s worth noting that the Congressional Research Service has reported concerns in Washington that Hugo Chavez might try to supplant his U.” Second. military power. Interests. Southern Command conceded as early as 2006 that Beijing had “approached every country in our area of responsibility” and provided military exchanges. in exchange for Chinese development funds and loans. market with China. Washington should make it clear to Beijing that the American people would look unfavorably upon the sale of Chinese arms or the basing of Chinese advisors or military assets in the Western Hemisphere. DOI:10. Beijing has no respect for human rights. is reviving its security partnerships all across the Asia-Pacific region.S.535762 Admittedly there is great variation as one examines China’s relationships with each country in the region.66 That the PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs nonetheless formally describes Beijing’s relations with Venezuela as being a . $4. Venezuelan engagement stifles the linchpin of China’s foreign policy in the Americas Pham ’10 J.0” would make it clear to Beijing that the United States welcomes China’s efforts to conduct trade in the Americas but discourages any claims of control—implied or explicit—by China over territories. Beijing viewed the Arab Spring uprisings not as an impetus for political reform. The New York Times adds that Beijing has lent Ecuador $1 billion to build a hydroelectric plant. that Chinese defense firms “are likely to leverage their experience and a growing track record for their goods to expand their market share in the region. There is good and bad to Beijing’s increased interest and investment in the Western Hemisphere.” We cannot overstate how important this has been to keeping the peace.S. That brings us to the security dimension of China’s checkbook diplomacy in the Western Hemisphere. and much of Latin America is happily accelerating development in the economic.S.” Put it all together.America: $28 billion in loans to Venezuela. Officials with the U.” according to Director of National Intelligence James Clapper. From Washington’s perspective. Venezuela agreed to increase oil shipments to China from 380. properties or facilities in the Americas.” The JFQ report concludes. the U.S. a $16.4 billion to develop Peruvian mines.

particularly as a potential vehicle for countries in Latin America to move away from the Monroe Doctrine concept.'2 From this perspective. 2. civil war and waves of refugees pouring into neighbouring countries. a disintegrating China would also pose a threat to its neighbours and the world.S. The current geopolitical atmosphere in the Western Hemisphere seems more conducive to Chinese economic expansion than restrictive. Although it lost control of Taiwan during the Chinese Civil War more than six decades ago. Cha´vez’s so-called Bolivarian Revolution has begun to draw attention. 2002 (The China Threat: Perceptions. resulting in territorial fragmentation. Lecturer in Defence Studies at Deakin University. China still considers Taiwan to be part of its homeland. Today the Chinese leadership faces a raft of internal problems. the issue poses special dangers and challenges for the U. pg 5) The fourth factor contributing to the perception of a China threat is the fear of political and economic collapse in the PRC. March/April 2011 THE PROSPECTS for avoiding intense military competition and war may be good. any or all of these scenarios would have a profoundly negative impact on regional stability. What Chinese policymakers truly wish to see. Vol. is the revival of the Latin American integration project started by Simo´n Bolivar at the beginning of the nineteenth century. Myths and Reality. Political disintegration or a Chinese civil war might result in millions of Chinese refugees seeking asylum in neighbouring countries. and unification remains a key political goal for Beijing. as he attempts to take on Bolivar’s mantle to restart this centuries-old dream. China has made clear that it will use force if Taiwan declares independence.S. and some Latin American leaders are also determined to pursue. placing it in a different category than Japan or South Korea.68 O Chinese economic collapse devastates the CCP – causes violent lash-out Yee and Storey ‘2 Herbert Yee. a growing population. Iss. Should the Bolivarian regional integration proposal gain traction. Because China places such high value on Taiwan and because the United States and China--whatever they might formally agree to--have such different attitudes regarding the legitimacy of the status quo. including the increasing political demands of its citizens. 9. the first logical priority would be to reduce the region’s dependence on the North American market . because each step along the way might well seem rational to the . Such an unprecedented exodus of refugees from a collapsed PRC would no doubt put a severe strain on the limited resources of China's neighbours. A crisis over Taiwan could fairly easily escalate to nuclear war. Naturally. RoutledgeCurzon.‘‘strategic partnership’’67 is certainly not very reassuring. Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at George Washington University. a shortage of natural resources and a deterioration in the natural environment caused by rapid industrialisation and pollution. Hugo Cha´vez of Venezuela sees himself as the standard-bearer of a modern version of this concept. and Ian Storey. but growth in China's power may nevertheless require some changes in U. China conflict escalates to nuclear war Glaser ’11 Charles Glaser. One Chinese analyst even argues that the PRC should view the Venezuelan regime’s schemes opportunistically. foreign policy that Washington will find disagreeable--particularly regarding Taiwan. A fragmented China could also result in another nightmare scenario . These problems are putting a strain on the central government's ability to govern effectively. “Will China’s Rise Lead to War?” Foreign Affairs. Professor of Politics and International Relations at the Hong Kong Baptist University.nuclear weapons falling into the hands of irresponsible local provincial leaders or warlords. and much of China's conventional military buildup has been dedicated to increasing its ability to coerce Taiwan and reducing the United States' ability to intervene.-Chinese relationship. Hence China’s attractiveness as an alternative market and partner . In China.

Standard deterrence theory holds that Washington's current ability to destroy most or all of China's nuclear force enhances its bargaining position. no matter how it originated. a crisis could unfold in which the United States found itself following events rather than leading them . policy is designed to reduce the probability that Taiwan will declare independence and to make clear that the United States will not come to Taiwan's aid if it does.S. In addition to its improved conventional capabilities. could fuel a conventional and nuclear arms race. Such dangers have been around for decades. offensive targeting capabilities and strategic ballistic missile defenses might be interpreted by China as a signal of malign U. Enhancements to U.S. Current U. motives. meanwhile. attack. Given the different interests and perceptions of the various parties and the limited control Washington has over Taipei's behavior.-Chinese relations. China is modernizing its nuclear forces to increase their ability to survive and retaliate following a large-scale U.actors involved. Nevertheless. l eading to further Chinese military efforts and a general poisoning of U. A U. but ongoing improvements in China's military capabilities may make Beijing more willing to escalate a Taiwan crisis. China's nuclear modernization might remove that check on Chinese action.S.S. attempt to preserve its ability to defend Taiwan. the United States would find itself under pressure to protect Taiwan against any sort of attack. .S.S. leading Beijing to behave more boldly in future crises than it has in past ones.